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Date: Thu, 09 Nov 2000 00:21:23 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Final reminder of ASWA meeting this Saturday and then AMOS
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

Just a reminder about the meeting this Saturday 11th November 2000. Get 
there when you can but we will start perhaps around 7pm. Severe weather 
will dominate discussion - obviously.

----------------------
There is also this AMOS Weatherwatch meeting. I am not able to attend due 
to TDU2K, so use the people on this letter as contacts.


A.M.O.S.  SYDNEY CENTRE   -   WEATHERWATCH GROUP

NEWSLETTER NUMBER 00-11   -     NOVEMBER  2000

The Next Meeting of the AMOS Weatherwatch Group will be on
Wednesday 22nd November 2000 at 7:30pm (19:30) at
Macquarie University, Building E5A, Room 143 (E5A-143).
Expensive Parking is available in University Car-Parks see notes below.

This meeting will be an opportunity to discuss the Spring Weather, and
the amazing events of last Summer in Europe, Asia, and North America.

         Also Mr. David Seagrove will present a short talk on
         'Highlights and Lowlights of Three Years in the U.K.'
         and will introduce samples of his data from this period.
         David will answer questions and offer his comments on the
         Recent U.K. Floods and some Famous Historic U.K. Storms.

Visitors are very welcome. Discussion will follow the presentation, and 
light refreshments will be available during the meeting.
At this meeting of Weatherwatch be careful about your
parking, fees have increased to be $1.00 for the first hour, then three 
more dollars for two, three or four hours, and a MAXIMUM OF $5.00 If you 
want to stay until midnight. Sorry folks, it will cost you $4.00.
You can run outside and pay a dollar every hour if you wish.

IF YOU HAVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE NORTHERN WEATHER, CLIMATE, or 
OCEANOGRAPHY, PLEASE PARTICIPATE.
                                                                           P.T.O.  
P.T.O. >>>>>>





Enquiries
Alan Williams   (02)9488.9975   Paul Graham     (02)9888.2527
Jimmy Deguara   (02)9627.1943   Roger Nurse     (02)9449.1473

Future date of the next AMOS Weatherwatch Meeting will be discussed.
Possibly Wednesday 13th December 2000 at this stage. Jimmy and the
ASWA Storm Chasers will be back, and should have some stories to tell.
2001 Weatherwatch Meeting Dates could be discussed. Please bring any 
suggestions to our November Meeting.

Recent Meetings. At the last Weatherwatch Meeting on Wednesday 26th
of July, which seems a long time ago, when Alan and Roger discussed North 
Atlantic Weather and Climate Change, Vikings, and the Titanic.
At the last two AMOS Meetings; on Wednesday 23rd August we heard about Dr. 
Neil Holbrook's voyage to the Antarctic, and on Wednesday 25th October, two 
speakers, Mike Katz and Paul McBain gave great presentations on Bush Fires.

Recent Weather
Below average rain for August, September, and October, and a hot end to 
September, leading to Outbreaks of Bush-Fires along the East Coast.
Friday 3rd November was very busy with a damaging Mini-Tornado at 
Wentworthville, and large hail at Liverpool, Holsworthy, Fairfield, 
Parramatta, and Turramurra. Heavy hail fell around Macquarie University and 
the M2 was blocked by road accidents, in the late afternoon.

Heat Wave in India in September. October floods in the Mekong River, floods 
in Bangladesh, floods in U.K. and on the Continent. Gales in the English 
Channel sank a freighter loaded with styrene and other toxic chemicals. 
Powerful Typhoon in Taiwan. Famine in the Horn of Africa, and in Kenya. 
Food Shortages in North Korea. Snow Storms in the Barents Sea have hampered 
the recovery of bodies of crew members of the Submarine Kursk.

Wishing all our members and friends a safe, interesting Spring season.

Today's Quiz Question is the same as last time. What are the changes
in the headings between Newsletter 00-07 and 00-11. No prizes. Feel proud 
of your powers of observation.   Tell Roger or Alan or Paul.

Regards           Roger T. Nurse, News Editor        6th November 2000

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
To: "aus-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: New Photos from SEQ
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 00:03:34 +1000
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Hi all

I just got some photos back of the storms of October 26, Nov 3, 4, and
November 6.  I especially like the Nov 4 pics!

October 26 Sheet Lightning:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/seqstorms/photos/2000/261000la.JPG <----- up
to "d"

November 3: This was a supercell, but had weakened substantially where I was
(Ipswich)
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/seqstorms/photos/2000/031100a.JPG

November 4: Probable right mover supercell (had split from a storm near
Crows Nest)
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/seqstorms/photos/2000/041100a.JPG  <---- up to
"j"
My favourite:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/seqstorms/photos/2000/041100f.JPG

Development South of the Right Mover:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/seqstorms/photos/2000/041100k.JPG

The TCu on the left hand side of that pic became this:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/seqstorms/photos/2000/041100l.JPG
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/seqstorms/photos/2000/041100m.JPG

November 6 - Gold Coast storms (MLC got in the way)
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/seqstorms/photos/2000/061100a.JPG
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/seqstorms/photos/2000/061100b.JPG
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/seqstorms/photos/2000/061100c.JPG

Sunset
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/seqstorms/photos/2000/061100e.JPG

I'll do a report on the great 4-5 days of November on my site soon.  If
anyone didn't know, my chase report of Oct 26 is here:
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/reports/oct26_00.html  The above
lightning pics and some video captures are yet to be added.

Enjoy!

Regards

James Chambers
The Brisbane & SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html or
http://www.qldstorms.com



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Wed, 08 Nov 2000 22:20:56 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg <jra at upnaway.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado's
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

At 00:37 8/11/00 +1100, you wrote:
   Hi all,   But after only being on the list for a couple of days, I get
the  feeling that tornado's are prevalent around Aus.   We almost pride
ourselves on being a cyclone prone  region in the north. But I believe that
few are aware of tornado  activity.   I am aware that Victoria has had a
couple of  doosey's (didn't a moderate one go through around 1-2 yrs ago?) 

Q: What is the average amount of reported tornado's in  Australia? 
A: As far as reported tornadoes goes the total for Aus on an average year
would be about 20-30 per year. This figure however is grossly
underestimated and very very inaccurate. The simple problem is that most
tornadoes occur in remote areas and probably a very small % of all
tornadoes are actually recorded. The BOM here in WA told me that tornado
occurrences had trebled since they actively started looking for them.
Previously they only recorded a Tornado if someone phoned them up and
reported one down. Similarly in England only 60 Tornadoes had been recorded
up until 1950. But since the forming of TORRO (a British Tornado research
program) in 1974, 400 new Tornadoes have been documented in the 22 years
since. A quote from a small study i did into WA tornado numbers in 1996
demonstrates this problem. 

"Of the 150 tornadoes recorded Perth and its surrounding area down to
Mandurah accounts for 55 or one third of the states records. We know that
Perth doesn’t take up one third of the state's land mass. So obviously with
the large population density in Perth tornadoes & thier damage does'nt go
unnoticed. Studies in the US show that a population density of 100 to 200
people per square mile is needed to gain accurate tornado numbers. The 1986
census showed that the SW of WA has a population density of 10 people per
square mile. The only areas, which have the required density to gain
accurate numbers, are the Perth, Mandurah and Bunbury areas. If you take
the number of tornado occurrences in these areas and divide it by the
number of square miles you obtain a figure for tornadoes per square miles.
Then apply this figure to the remaining square miles from Busselton to
Lancelin (the SW corner) and a figure of 6 tornadoes a year is gained. This
would equate to 250 tornadoes for this section of coast for the years
1955-1996. Little alone the rest of inland WA. I would conservatively say
that this figure is more likely to be around 400+ tornadoes for WA since
1954."

Q: What % actually touch down?
A: Its very hard to say except that there are alot more funnels seen then
tornaodes. 

Q: Where is the most prone area within Aus that are 
frequented by tornado's? 
A: Again our current research is too innaccurate to say. Except to say that
there are certain areas amounst all states that are prone to higher tornado
accurences than others. It varys depending on winter and summer as well.

Q: Is the media only interested destructive tornado activity?   
A: In a word yes.

Q: What needs to be observed to define a possible tornado  (apart
from an obvious spout)?     
A: A vorticy that extends from the base of a cloud to the ground. Not
always easily seen.

Ira Fehlberg


          



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SE QLD piccies from last weekend
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 02:06:07 +1000
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Hi Ben and all,

Following are a selection from photo's taken last weekend.  Monday's awesome
border range  stuff still to be developed.

Saturday:
Base of small cell at Mt. Crosby with awesome updraft, note small infow
band...
http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100a.jpg

The updraft..
http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100b.jpg

and a composite view:
http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100c.jpg

A little bit later as the updraft area passed close by just to the SW.
Clearly rotating.  A left mover.
http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100d.jpg

And the resulting hail (variable to 2.5cm max)
http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100e.jpg

Sunday:
Shot of large storm over the Boonah area, storm is approx 80km SW from
camera. Wall cloud and lowerings to the NW of precip area under new updraft
visible at top of photo.  If you look carefully, just to the right of the
wall cloud you can just make out Cunninghams gap through the lighter precip.
Twin peaks of Mts. Mitchell & Cordeuex are around 1100m, the storm is a
little in front that, so I guess the cloud base is about 1000m.  That puts
the hard updrafts at the top of the picture at around 12,000m.
http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100a.jpg

And another shot a bit later.  Unfortunately 80km is a bit far to get good
detail of the lowerings.
http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100b.jpg

Meanwhile, looking the other way towards Brisbane, this small cell over the
Kenmore area had a bizarre little lowered inflow region:
http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100c.jpg

Sooner or later we had to get some action, and a big squall line rolled
through on dusk, this shot just as the shelf cloud passed in very fading
light.  Lots of lightning & 24mm.
http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100d.jpg

All this and I didn't have to go any further than 1km from my place.

Enjoy.
John.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 07:12:18 +1100 (AEDT)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: aus-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: western Qld today
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi to everyone,

Western Queensland/NW NSW is looking primed to take off this afternoon. 
The diagnostics are very impressive - models all progging CAPEs around
~4000 to 5000 J/Kg, LIs down to -12, ttots around 60, surface dew points
in the low 20s, surface easterlies or even SE'lies, a low level northerly
jet at 850 hPa running at about 30 knots with westerlies at about 30 knots
at 700. Upper jet is not ideally located, but I can't see this being a big
factor today. One inhibiting factor may be that there is very little
capping. Convection and rain areas are occurring out there as I write.
Some of it looks impressive in sat imagery already - bugger all radar
coverage out there of course. Its a pity TDU2000 is not starting _this_
week!! Still, this system looks like its going to linger for quite a long
time.... Keep watching everybody!!

Cheers,


Jonty.

____________________________________________________________________

Jonty Hall                   jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au

CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
Monash University
Wellington Road,
Clayton, Vic   3168

Ph +61 3 9905 9684

____________________________________________________________________

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornados
Date: Wed, 8 Nov 2000 13:43:47 -0700
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hey john,

i guess my only experiene in Aus is in Victoria. I did stay up on the gold
coast for one summer but I never saw anything but tropical type convection -
ie no supercells. A cyclone did come close to land - that was awesome fun!

I do recall chasing a storm last summer which supposedly produced a tornado
out past the dandenongs. The structure of the storm was well hidden by the
precip curtain so i can't gauge how impressive it might have been from a
different angle but i was sure it wasn't rotating. I guess this brings me to
the point that all the storms i have seen in Colorado so far were LP, so
when the supercell finally rolled off the foothills, the clarity was perfect
and the structure simply amazing! No doubt Aus would get this too but i am
curious as to whether we have the geological set-up to produce those massive
CAPE/LI days that do occur here - BTW the south east portion of the US is
experienceing a secondary max in severe activity - a bit to far away but
tornado watches/warnings are being posted regularly - Nice to check the
doppler :)

cheers, Lyle.


----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, November 07, 2000 5:32 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tornados


> Hi Lyle,
>
> I also have spent some time (2 months) in the US mid west in spring, and
> been within areas under Tornado watches a number of times.  But
> unfortunately didn't see one, the closest was 10 miles South of my
location
> and obscurred by precip.  I did see some awesome thunderstorms
nevertherless
> and in particular, the cells for which the watches were issued.  One
> occasion which comes to mind, I was watching a particularly strong
supercell
> in Eastern Colorado as it happens, which produced 2 inch hail, with great
> interest, and this local walked past me and said "what's the matter with
you
> boy, ain't you seen a cloud before"...  Anyway, what I would say, is that
I
> didn't see anything which surpassed the development we had here last
> weekend, which is pretty typical for SE QLD in Spring/Summer.
>
> I am not saying that Tornado Alley doesn't deserve the name, it most
surely
> does.  I'm just saying I've seen plenty as good here.
>
> Regards,
> John.
> >snip
>
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornados
>
> Hi Bussie,
>
> I can tell you from personal experience that the US definatly deserves the
> right to have the name "Tornado Alley". I have been here for 3 months, in
> the off-season, and have seen my first supercells, mammatus like you
> wouldn't beleive and radar echo's of numerous tornados on the plains -
> unfortunatly due to school no serious chasing was possible. However, we
have
> a planed chasing trip to Oklahoma for 1 week in spring - can't wait!
>
> In all the time I was in Victoria (my whole life), the number of tornado
> reports were minimal. There's no questioning that Aus gets supercells,
> tornadoas and it's fair share of cool weather but it is sparse, in
relation
> to other parts of the world. That's not to say I haven't had many an
> exciting day chasing around Vic but as one of my lectueres, in Melbourne,
> put it "Our storms are of the garden variety type when compared to the
> Plains" - within a week of being here, i knew excatly what he was talking
> about.
>
> But I must emphasise that I have no complacency about Australian weather,
> there have been several occasions of real fear when faced with some
adverse
> conditions while in the mountains when we should have been under Happy
> Highs - weather is always one step ahead and that's why i love it :)
>
> Cheers, Lyle.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
> To: "weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, November 07, 2000 12:58 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: Tornados
>
>
> > Angela wrote:
> > Australians hear all about the US M/West's tornado alley.  But after
only
> > being on the list for a couple of days, I get the feeling that tornado's
> are
> > prevalent around Aus.
> >
> > We almost pride ourselves on being a cyclone prone region in the north.
> But
> > I believe that few are aware of tornado activity.
> >
> > All I know is that there are a few more than I used to think before I
got
> > interested in looking up. There have been several in Victoria so far
this
> > year. I stand corrected on this one but so far I think 41 people have
been
>
> > killed in Australia by tornado's. The recent one in Milawa about 30 min
SE
> > of here on 9th Sept, which I visited and wonder how no-one gets injured
> > sometimes. It's at www.stormchasers.au.com ,Sunbury, near Melbourne at
> > around the same time I think, Kyabram near Shepparton also around the
same
> > time I think, and many others.
> > It also makes me wonder how many touch down that go un-reported because
of
> > our sparse population. I witnessed a very violent storm at Yarrawonga on
> > 1-1-99 and couldn't get home to the East of Yarra because of trees
across
> > the road. Had a look later and the trees were all corkscrewed with only
a
> > short path of probably a few hundred metres. The trees that had fallen
> were
> > laying in different directions. Another un-reported one perhaps? Didn't
> > realise back then what I was looking at, but even then noted that the
> trees
> > hadn't just blown over.
> >
> > Bussie (NE Victoria)
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE QLD piccies + funnel/nader like lowering
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 09:47:07 +1000
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Hi John, everyone

Excellent shots John!  6 months ago i was wondering if i would every see
updrafts like this :  http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100b.jpg  again :)

I meant to post this the other day, but the following picture was taken mid
Tuesday afternoon from the Greenbank area, looking NW or maybe WNW along a
line of activity, towards the strongest cell on the northern side (much like
the situation on Monday when i photographed the gustnado)

http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/pictures/ben/07-11-200008.html

At first i was thinking Gustnado - but after consulting with some far more
experienced weather watches, i'm now thinking 'nice lowering'.  You can see
a series of pictures on this page :

http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/products/reports/2000/november/7/index.html

Gustnado or not, it was quite exciting watching it unfold (i would have had
a better series of pictures if it wasn't for all the trees along just about
every road i drove on!!)


----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 09, 2000 2:06 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SE QLD piccies from last weekend


> Hi Ben and all,
>
> Following are a selection from photo's taken last weekend.  Monday's
awesome
> border range  stuff still to be developed.
>
> Saturday:
> Base of small cell at Mt. Crosby with awesome updraft, note small infow
> band...
> http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100a.jpg
>
> The updraft..
> http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100b.jpg
>
> and a composite view:
> http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100c.jpg
>
> A little bit later as the updraft area passed close by just to the SW.
> Clearly rotating.  A left mover.
> http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100d.jpg
>
> And the resulting hail (variable to 2.5cm max)
> http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100e.jpg
>
> Sunday:
> Shot of large storm over the Boonah area, storm is approx 80km SW from
> camera. Wall cloud and lowerings to the NW of precip area under new
updraft
> visible at top of photo.  If you look carefully, just to the right of the
> wall cloud you can just make out Cunninghams gap through the lighter
precip.
> Twin peaks of Mts. Mitchell & Cordeuex are around 1100m, the storm is a
> little in front that, so I guess the cloud base is about 1000m.  That puts
> the hard updrafts at the top of the picture at around 12,000m.
> http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100a.jpg
>
> And another shot a bit later.  Unfortunately 80km is a bit far to get good
> detail of the lowerings.
> http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100b.jpg
>
> Meanwhile, looking the other way towards Brisbane, this small cell over
the
> Kenmore area had a bizarre little lowered inflow region:
> http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100c.jpg
>
> Sooner or later we had to get some action, and a big squall line rolled
> through on dusk, this shot just as the shelf cloud passed in very fading
> light.  Lots of lightning & 24mm.
> http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100d.jpg
>
> All this and I didn't have to go any further than 1km from my place.
>
> Enjoy.
> John.
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Harald Richter <hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov>
Subject: aus-wx: tornadoEs
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Wed, 8 Nov 2000 18:39:43 -0600 (CST)
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Hi folks,

Lyle expressed (in a cold place):
[snip]
> the point that all the storms i have seen in Colorado so far were LP, so
> when the supercell finally rolled off the foothills, the clarity was perfect
> and the structure simply amazing! No doubt Aus would get this too but i am
> curious as to whether we have the geological set-up to produce those massive
> CAPE/LI days that do occur here
[snip]

I see the lapse rate/cap issue as Australia's major geological ``problem.''
I would be quite interested to talk to people who have seen soundings
that show a well-mixed moist boundary layer overlaid by a strong (but not too
strong) temperature inversion,  followed by several kilometres of lapse rates  
in excess of, say, 8 C / km.  My current guess is that there aren't too 
many of those soundings in AUS.  

Ahead of upper-level troughs (southwesterly flow)
the Plains in the U.S. are located downstream from fairly elevated (z > 1km)
and fairly heated (T ~ 35 C) terrain (Northern Mexico, Arizona,...).  
During the daytime a deep well-mixed PBL forms over the elevated terrain and 
gets advected NE.  The next day an ``elevated mixed layer'' manifests itself 
in the Plains soundings as a sharp inversion around ~800 mb,
followed by nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates above.  The ``ideal'' inversion 
protects those steep lapse rates until, around the
time of maximum diurnal heating, the moist PBL air breaks through in
*very few* places (usually near low-level boundaries). 

Australia has no upstream ELEVATED terrain that is likely to supply an
elevated mixed layer to any part of Australia.  The result is what I see in
the current satellite imagery:  major convection erupts ahead of
a broad upper-level trough over central AUS, without the support 
of any diurnal heating.  This convection is going to gobble
up the instability that it can find.  The daytime convection 
to follow will only see the leftovers.  Last night's soundings
ahead of the trough and within the juicy PBL (Mount Isa, Charleville)
show moist adiabats, results of moist convective overturning in the
absence of protecting lids.  

All that said, I see some possibility that subsidence within an anticylonic flow can 
build a lid.  The inversion in last night's Brisbane sounding seems to
be associated with a ridge in the area.  I also see a possibility that
a mixed layer can be lifted isentropically above a somewhat 
cooler moist PBL air mass.
 
BTW, I see nice dewpoints throughout S QLD and further W/SW ahead
of a broad surface low in S NT.  Better flow is progged to approach from the W.
Most of QLD should see a cloud or two, especially ahead of the present convection.
There's a peculiar pocket of high RH air in the vicinity of Longreach (QLD)
and Charleville (QLD) associated with the present convection.  
These storms might lay down some good boundaries for later
redevelopment in the same area.  Good moisture reaches all the way back to 
N SA, but upper-level ridging might suppress conevction too far W. 

Enjoy the storms,
Harald


-- 
-------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069, U.S.A.
ph.:    (405) 366-0430
fax:    (405) 579-0808
email:  hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov
web:    http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~hrichter
-------------------------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Cc: <debby.woodbridge at solution6.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SE QLD piccies + funnel/nader like lowering
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 10:49:45 +1000
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Hi Ben,

>snip
Yikes, from the outline of the hills, that looks real close to my place.
Looking NW
along the line, it could just be a little shelf could viewed side on, which
sometimes can be  very deceptive, but I really think not.  Doesn't look like
a gustnado either, it appears to be distinctly 'behind' the precip region. I
think I agree with you, nice lowering!

I had kindof dismissed Tuesday until I looked at lightning tracker and we
over 100 CG's per 5 mins in SEQ.  Mostly West & NW along the ranges and with
a SE'ter blowing even!  But 9mm in the rain gauge tells me something fell at
Mt. Crosby.

What a great weekend: 5 consective days of activity much it well over 100
CG's per 5 mins.  Highest I saw was around 400 on Sunday.  2 confirmed
nadars.

John
>snip

I meant to post this the other day, but the following picture was taken mid
Tuesday afternoon from the Greenbank area, looking NW or maybe WNW along a
line of activity, towards the strongest cell on the northern side (much like
the situation on Monday when i photographed the gustnado)

http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/pictures/ben/07-11-200008.html

At first i was thinking Gustnado - but after consulting with some far more
experienced weather watches, i'm now thinking 'nice lowering'.  You can see
a series of pictures on this page :

http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/products/reports/2000/november/7/index.html

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 12:25:36 +1100 (EDT)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Western Vic for tomorrow/Sat?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all

I was just looking at the AVN forecasted CAPE and LI for tomorrow (Friday) 
06Z and saw values of 1500-1800, and -4 to -6 respectively for the western
part of Victoria (I can hear the bellows of laughter coming from
Queenslanders/NSWelshmen already). Extending eastwards from this is a
small region of CAPE 900-1500 which crosses over Melbourne to a secondary
maximum to the east. 

Now I have a question. Is it worth going for a chase/drive to the west
tomorrow, given that when this system passed through SA, Phil reported
that it was just embedded thunderstorms, really not worth chasing? 

What would other Victorians do?
(I suppose those going north to the TDU2K chase would give this a miss to
save their cash for the action up north, but just suppose you weren't
going on TDU2K.)

I should point out that the following day, this region becomes the only
'hotspot' in Vic.

At this stage my plans were to head out to the west and chase through
Friday, stay overnight at some place (Horsham perhaps?) and continue
puttering around on Saturday. 

Although, I must admit I'm a bit worried as there has been no other
mention of this system by Victorians. I've even checked the weather
outlook page on the Melbourne Storm Chasers page,

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/nov2000.htm 

but there is no updated mention of this. By the way, this is a good page
to check out as Clyve (among others) puts his forecasts here which,
surprisingly, aren't posted on the weather list. (Perhaps that 'other
peoples forecasts' vs the Bureau has something to do with it, but I won't
drag that up). As a result, many people may not be aware of his quite
accurate predictions. 


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: OT: Un-authorised use of Images 
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 12:53:21 +1100
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<x-html>
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Matt Smith has requested to me to take down the 
images of the west sydney tornado, from November 3rd. off SSC. These pictures 
are the property of Matt Smith, and thus must have authorisation from him to use 
them anywhere on the internet, or otherwise. It has become clear that certain 
people and organisations have been using these images without the consent of 
Matt, and we all know that this cannot happen.&nbsp; We must preserve the rights 
of individuals who capture these fantastic images. Matt doesn't have a problem 
with people using the pictures, as long as they ask his permission to do so. 
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>dann</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>__________________________<BR>Daniel Weatherhead 
<BR>Blaxland, NSW<BR><A 
href="mailto:weatherhead at ozemail.com.au">weatherhead at ozemail.com.au</A><BR>SYDNEY 
STORM CHASERS<BR><A 
href="http://www.sydneystormchasers.com">www.sydneystormchasers.com</A><BR></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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X-Originating-IP: [203.109.250.98]
From: "Paul Graham" <v_notch at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Western Vic for tomorrow/Sat?
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 12:44:12 +1100
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Hi Rob,
           Best advice, stick to the NE side of the developing low, if
possible.  This will mean driving N/NE possibly tomorrow...Check Meso Laps
before you go.
Good luck.
Cheers,
             Paul.
----- Original Message -----
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 09, 2000 12:25 PM
Subject: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Western Vic for tomorrow/Sat?


>
> Hi all
>
> I was just looking at the AVN forecasted CAPE and LI for tomorrow (Friday)
> 06Z and saw values of 1500-1800, and -4 to -6 respectively for the western
> part of Victoria (I can hear the bellows of laughter coming from
> Queenslanders/NSWelshmen already). Extending eastwards from this is a
> small region of CAPE 900-1500 which crosses over Melbourne to a secondary
> maximum to the east.
>
> Now I have a question. Is it worth going for a chase/drive to the west
> tomorrow, given that when this system passed through SA, Phil reported
> that it was just embedded thunderstorms, really not worth chasing?
>
> What would other Victorians do?
> (I suppose those going north to the TDU2K chase would give this a miss to
> save their cash for the action up north, but just suppose you weren't
> going on TDU2K.)
>
> I should point out that the following day, this region becomes the only
> 'hotspot' in Vic.
>
> At this stage my plans were to head out to the west and chase through
> Friday, stay overnight at some place (Horsham perhaps?) and continue
> puttering around on Saturday.
>
> Although, I must admit I'm a bit worried as there has been no other
> mention of this system by Victorians. I've even checked the weather
> outlook page on the Melbourne Storm Chasers page,
>
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/nov2000.htm
>
> but there is no updated mention of this. By the way, this is a good page
> to check out as Clyve (among others) puts his forecasts here which,
> surprisingly, aren't posted on the weather list. (Perhaps that 'other
> peoples forecasts' vs the Bureau has something to do with it, but I won't
> drag that up). As a result, many people may not be aware of his quite
> accurate predictions.
>
>
> Cheers
>
> --
>
> Robert A. Goler
>
> E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
> Department of Mathematics and Statistics
> Monash University
> Clayton, Vic 3800
> Australia
>
> --
>
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornados
Date: Thu, 09 Nov 2000 13:20:26 EST
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 09 Nov 2000 02:20:26.0315 (UTC) FILETIME=[9F32A1B0:01C049F3]
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<x-flowed>
Lyle wrote:
>i guess my only experiene in Aus is in Victoria.
<snip>
Although I imagine you were generalising / simplifying -> "US definatly 
deserves the right to have the name 'Tornado Alley'" but to compare Colarado 
to your experience in Melbourne is probably not a reasonable comparison in 
anycase. I can tell you one thing, having spent quite a lot of time there, 
California is no tornado alley :-) Sure Melbourne can sometimes get nice 
storms, but Sydney (with an avarage 10 'severe' days and 40 thunderdays per 
annum) and Brisbane (similar or possibly even higher) probably get as many 
severe thunderstorm days each year as Melbourne does total thunderstorms, 
just as Melbourne gets winter cold outbreaks that the east coast cities 
could only dream about. [Out of curiosity I would be interested to know the 
annual thunderstorm / severe thunderstorm statistics for Denver-Boulder, or 
better, similar sized cities in the heart of tornado alley (Oklahoma city, 
Dallas-Fort Worth) - perhaps double the Australian figures??]

In other words a better comparison would be the US great plains and Mid West 
with Australia' most severe storm prone region ie roughly, the great divide 
adjacent east coast and western ranges running from south of Sydney to 
perhaps Bundaberg in Qld. Of course the central US would seem to have more 
favourable conditions for severe storms more often but I think if the 
abovementioned areas of Australia had a similar road network, similar 
population density and no. of chasers...then you might be very surprised. I 
suggest that the perception of tornado alley as being that is partly due 
there being some more tornadic storms than Australia, largely due to the 
actual threat of severe storms to people and property and, if I can 
generalise, cultural differences between Americans and Australians. Don't 
get me wrong I love the US and admire the culture but I would like a dollar 
for everytime I have heard Florida being labelled the 'lightning capital of 
the world'.

This season in NE NSW / SE QLD in particular is far more active than the US 
was in May / June 2000 when I was there (going by satpics and radar) 
although naturally many more tornadoes were bagged in the US - not really a 
surprise. With only two handfulls of chasers out last Friday to Sunday 
covering 4 tiny dots (Sydney, Brisbane, Coffs Harbour, Lismore) in what is a 
1100km X 200km box of mostly uninhabited land where severe storms erupted, 
and on a very limited road network, the results were numerous supercells, 3 
confirmed tornadoes and several reliable accounts of funnel clouds/possible 
tornadoes not confirmed due to a sub-tropical rainforest being in the way. I 
have no doubt that if we 'magically' transported the offending weather 
system to the US midwest (with hoards of chasers and brilliant roads), then 
many more tornadoes would have been had.

More than enough from me.
_________________________________________________________________________
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From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at australia.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Western Vic for tomorrow/Sat?
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 14:40:07 +1100
Organization: ASWA Victoria
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>WHOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOO If that's right, I'm 
directly in the target area....BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>PaulY</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au 
  href="mailto:robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au">Robert Goler</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, November 09, 2000 12:25 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Western Vic for 
  tomorrow/Sat?</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV><BR>Hi all<BR><BR>I was just looking at the AVN forecasted CAPE 
  and LI for tomorrow (Friday) <BR>06Z and saw values of 1500-1800, and -4 to -6 
  respectively for the western<BR>part of Victoria (I can hear the bellows of 
  laughter coming from<BR>Queenslanders/NSWelshmen already). Extending eastwards 
  from this is a<BR>small region of CAPE 900-1500 which crosses over Melbourne 
  to a secondary<BR>maximum to the east. <BR><BR>Now I have a question. Is it 
  worth going for a chase/drive to the west<BR>tomorrow, given that when this 
  system passed through SA, Phil reported<BR>that it was just embedded 
  thunderstorms, really not worth chasing? <BR><BR>What would other Victorians 
  do?<BR>(I suppose those going north to the TDU2K chase would give this a miss 
  to<BR>save their cash for the action up north, but just suppose you 
  weren't<BR>going on TDU2K.)<BR><BR>I should point out that the following day, 
  this region becomes the only<BR>'hotspot' in Vic.<BR><BR>At this stage my 
  plans were to head out to the west and chase through<BR>Friday, stay overnight 
  at some place (Horsham perhaps?) and continue<BR>puttering around on Saturday. 
  <BR><BR>Although, I must admit I'm a bit worried as there has been no 
  other<BR>mention of this system by Victorians. I've even checked the 
  weather<BR>outlook page on the Melbourne Storm Chasers page,<BR><BR><A 
  href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/nov2000.htm">http://www.stormchasers.au.com/nov2000.htm</A> 
  <BR><BR>but there is no updated mention of this. By the way, this is a good 
  page<BR>to check out as Clyve (among others) puts his forecasts here 
  which,<BR>surprisingly, aren't posted on the weather list. (Perhaps that 
  'other<BR>peoples forecasts' vs the Bureau has something to do with it, but I 
  won't<BR>drag that up). As a result, many people may not be aware of his 
  quite<BR>accurate predictions. <BR><BR><BR>Cheers<BR><BR>--<BR><BR>Robert A. 
  Goler&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <BR><BR>E-mail <A 
  href="mailto:robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au">robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au</A><BR><A 
  href="http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/">http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/</A><BR><BR>Department 
  of Mathematics and Statistics<BR>Monash University<BR>Clayton, Vic 
  3800<BR>Australia<BR><BR>--<BR><BR><BR>&nbsp;+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>&nbsp;To 
  unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail 
  to:majordomo at world.std.com<BR>&nbsp;with "unsubscribe aussie-weather 
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  href="mailto:-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au</A>------------------------------</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

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From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornados
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 15:40:54 +1100
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I agree with everything you say here David. Talking with people about last
weekends events (Fri/Sat/Sun), a few experienced observers noted on the
frequency of supercells and V notches on Satpics in such a small area. From
South of sydney to Rockhampton, the proliferation was amazing for a 1523km
stretch of land. We noted that this sort of occurence is even 'special' for
a US event, and it wold be labelled an outbreak.


dann
__________________________
Daniel Weatherhead
Blaxland, NSW
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
www.sydneystormchasers.com



> Lyle wrote:
> >i guess my only experiene in Aus is in Victoria.
> <snip>
> Although I imagine you were generalising / simplifying -> "US definatly
> deserves the right to have the name 'Tornado Alley'" but to compare
Colarado
> to your experience in Melbourne is probably not a reasonable comparison in
> anycase. I can tell you one thing, having spent quite a lot of time there,
> California is no tornado alley :-) Sure Melbourne can sometimes get nice
> storms, but Sydney (with an avarage 10 'severe' days and 40 thunderdays
per
> annum) and Brisbane (similar or possibly even higher) probably get as many
> severe thunderstorm days each year as Melbourne does total thunderstorms,
> just as Melbourne gets winter cold outbreaks that the east coast cities
> could only dream about. [Out of curiosity I would be interested to know
the
> annual thunderstorm / severe thunderstorm statistics for Denver-Boulder,
or
> better, similar sized cities in the heart of tornado alley (Oklahoma city,
> Dallas-Fort Worth) - perhaps double the Australian figures??]
>
> In other words a better comparison would be the US great plains and Mid
West
> with Australia' most severe storm prone region ie roughly, the great
divide
> adjacent east coast and western ranges running from south of Sydney to
> perhaps Bundaberg in Qld. Of course the central US would seem to have more
> favourable conditions for severe storms more often but I think if the
> abovementioned areas of Australia had a similar road network, similar
> population density and no. of chasers...then you might be very surprised.
I
> suggest that the perception of tornado alley as being that is partly due
> there being some more tornadic storms than Australia, largely due to the
> actual threat of severe storms to people and property and, if I can
> generalise, cultural differences between Americans and Australians. Don't
> get me wrong I love the US and admire the culture but I would like a
dollar
> for everytime I have heard Florida being labelled the 'lightning capital
of
> the world'.
>
> This season in NE NSW / SE QLD in particular is far more active than the
US
> was in May / June 2000 when I was there (going by satpics and radar)
> although naturally many more tornadoes were bagged in the US - not really
a
> surprise. With only two handfulls of chasers out last Friday to Sunday
> covering 4 tiny dots (Sydney, Brisbane, Coffs Harbour, Lismore) in what is
a
> 1100km X 200km box of mostly uninhabited land where severe storms erupted,
> and on a very limited road network, the results were numerous supercells,
3
> confirmed tornadoes and several reliable accounts of funnel
clouds/possible
> tornadoes not confirmed due to a sub-tropical rainforest being in the way.
I
> have no doubt that if we 'magically' transported the offending weather
> system to the US midwest (with hoards of chasers and brilliant roads),
then
> many more tornadoes would have been had.
>
> More than enough from me.
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
> Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at
> http://profiles.msn.com.
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado's
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 17:15:46 +1100 (EST)
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A study based on sightings from the 1950's and 1960's showed that
the grid squares centred on major cities (the study, if I recall 
correctly, counted observed tornadoes in each 1 x 1 degree grid square)
had about 10 times the frequency of observed tornadoes of surrounding
grid squares. This would suggest that, at the time, about 90% of
tornadoes in rural areas went unreported (assuming that everything
within the metropolitan areas did get reported).

That study found a frequency in the Sydney region which was on a
par with the eastern coastal states of the U.S, and one-third to
one-quarter of that in the Midwest. It would seem reasonable to 
assume that that frequency is broadly representative of much of 
eastern New South Wales and Queensland.

Blair Trewin


Ira wrote:


> Q: What is the average amount of reported tornado's in  Australia? 
> A: As far as reported tornadoes goes the total for Aus on an average year
> would be about 20-30 per year. This figure however is grossly
> underestimated and very very inaccurate. The simple problem is that most
> tornadoes occur in remote areas and probably a very small % of all
> tornadoes are actually recorded. The BOM here in WA told me that tornado
> occurrences had trebled since they actively started looking for them.
> Previously they only recorded a Tornado if someone phoned them up and
> reported one down. Similarly in England only 60 Tornadoes had been recorded
> up until 1950. But since the forming of TORRO (a British Tornado research
> program) in 1974, 400 new Tornadoes have been documented in the 22 years
> since. A quote from a small study i did into WA tornado numbers in 1996
> demonstrates this problem. 
> 
> "Of the 150 tornadoes recorded Perth and its surrounding area down to
> Mandurah accounts for 55 or one third of the states records. We know that
> Perth doesn’t take up one third of the state's land mass. So obviously with
> the large population density in Perth tornadoes & thier damage does'nt go
> unnoticed. Studies in the US show that a population density of 100 to 200
> people per square mile is needed to gain accurate tornado numbers. The 1986
> census showed that the SW of WA has a population density of 10 people per
> square mile. The only areas, which have the required density to gain
> accurate numbers, are the Perth, Mandurah and Bunbury areas. If you take
> the number of tornado occurrences in these areas and divide it by the
> number of square miles you obtain a figure for tornadoes per square miles.
> Then apply this figure to the remaining square miles from Busselton to
> Lancelin (the SW corner) and a figure of 6 tornadoes a year is gained. This
> would equate to 250 tornadoes for this section of coast for the years
> 1955-1996. Little alone the rest of inland WA. I would conservatively say
> that this figure is more likely to be around 400+ tornadoes for WA since
> 1954."
> 
> Q: What % actually touch down?
> A: Its very hard to say except that there are alot more funnels seen then
> tornaodes. 
> 
> Q: Where is the most prone area within Aus that are 
> frequented by tornado's? 
> A: Again our current research is too innaccurate to say. Except to say that
> there are certain areas amounst all states that are prone to higher tornado
> accurences than others. It varys depending on winter and summer as well.
> 
> Q: Is the media only interested destructive tornado activity?   
> A: In a word yes.
> 
> Q: What needs to be observed to define a possible tornado  (apart
> from an obvious spout)?     
> A: A vorticy that extends from the base of a cloud to the ground. Not
> always easily seen.
> 
> Ira Fehlberg
> 
> 
>           
> 
> 
> 
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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tornado's
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 17:50:00 +1000
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Hi Blair,

I would respectfully suggest that the same study conducted in the 90's might
revise some of these figures upwards, as also has happened in the American
midwest since the 50's & 60's,  which is just a function of increased
population density and greater awareness/education re meteorological
phenomena.

I think it also might be reasonable to correlate likely tornado frequency
with known thunderstorm frequency figures which varies quite markedly over
the region discussed.

John.
>snip

Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado's

A study based on sightings from the 1950's and 1960's showed that
the grid squares centred on major cities (the study, if I recall
correctly, counted observed tornadoes in each 1 x 1 degree grid square)
had about 10 times the frequency of observed tornadoes of surrounding
grid squares. This would suggest that, at the time, about 90% of
tornadoes in rural areas went unreported (assuming that everything
within the metropolitan areas did get reported).

That study found a frequency in the Sydney region which was on a
par with the eastern coastal states of the U.S, and one-third to
one-quarter of that in the Midwest. It would seem reasonable to
assume that that frequency is broadly representative of much of
eastern New South Wales and Queensland.

Blair Trewin

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 09 Nov 2000 19:36:39 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Western Vic for tomorrow/Sat?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hey Robert,

None of us would miss a chase if we could possibly help it <g>.

I think the way things are atm I'd check things out in the morning - the
sky, the satpics, the location (and forecast location) of the trough,
the dewpoints across the state, then I think I'd probably head towards
the trough (especially if there is clear air anywhere in that general
direction).  Ballarat & environs doesn't look too bad & that way you can
head in any direction you like.
The aviation forecast really is very interesting atm...when is the last
time you noticed a trough going *west* in Victoria?????

AMEND AREA FORECAST 090500 TO 091700
SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST NEAR RENMARK/HAMILTON/CAPE OTWAY 05Z,
MILDURA/ARARAT/WILSONS PROM 11Z,THEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TILL 12Z, MAINLY IN THE N NEAR TROUGH.
AMD CLOUD: ISOL CB 5000/35000 AND SCT CU 5000/15000 TILL 12Z, MAINLY IN
THE N NEAR TROUGH.

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: western Qld today
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 20:10:32 +1100
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Well actually if it was my bet is the crew would end up at Thargomindah
again, it seems to hotspot today and tomorrow.

Michael


> coverage out there of course. Its a pity TDU2000 is not starting _this_
> week!! Still, this system looks like its going to linger for quite a long
> time.... Keep watching everybody!!
>
> Cheers,
>
>
> Jonty.
>
> ____________________________________________________________________
>
> Jonty Hall                   jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au
>
> CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
> Monash University
> Wellington Road,
> Clayton, Vic   3168
>
> Ph +61 3 9905 9684
>
> ____________________________________________________________________
>
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>


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X-Originating-IP: [203.171.105.243]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SE QLD piccies from last weekend
Date: Thu, 09 Nov 2000 20:27:15 EST
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<x-flowed>
Hi John et al...

Ooohhhh!!! Nice!!!

Got some nice updraughts here a week or two ago but light was bad...we'll 
have to see how the pix come out.

But....geeez....what we need here in Wycheproof is moisture like that!

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.


>From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: SE QLD piccies from last weekend
>Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 02:06:07 +1000
>
>Hi Ben and all,
>
>Following are a selection from photo's taken last weekend.  Monday's 
>awesome
>border range  stuff still to be developed.
>
>Saturday:
>Base of small cell at Mt. Crosby with awesome updraft, note small infow
>band...
>http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100a.jpg
>
>The updraft..
>http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100b.jpg
>
>and a composite view:
>http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100c.jpg
>
>A little bit later as the updraft area passed close by just to the SW.
>Clearly rotating.  A left mover.
>http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100d.jpg
>
>And the resulting hail (variable to 2.5cm max)
>http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/041100e.jpg
>
>Sunday:
>Shot of large storm over the Boonah area, storm is approx 80km SW from
>camera. Wall cloud and lowerings to the NW of precip area under new updraft
>visible at top of photo.  If you look carefully, just to the right of the
>wall cloud you can just make out Cunninghams gap through the lighter 
>precip.
>Twin peaks of Mts. Mitchell & Cordeuex are around 1100m, the storm is a
>little in front that, so I guess the cloud base is about 1000m.  That puts
>the hard updrafts at the top of the picture at around 12,000m.
>http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100a.jpg
>
>And another shot a bit later.  Unfortunately 80km is a bit far to get good
>detail of the lowerings.
>http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100b.jpg
>
>Meanwhile, looking the other way towards Brisbane, this small cell over the
>Kenmore area had a bizarre little lowered inflow region:
>http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100c.jpg
>
>Sooner or later we had to get some action, and a big squall line rolled
>through on dusk, this shot just as the shelf cloud passed in very fading
>light.  Lots of lightning & 24mm.
>http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100d.jpg
>
>All this and I didn't have to go any further than 1km from my place.
>
>Enjoy.
>John.
>
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</x-flowed>
From: ntstorms at bigpond.com
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 19:22:23 +0930
Subject: aus-wx: Weather Co. New Radar being tested......
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Howdy all. Have a look at the new radar currently being tested by 
The Weather Co. Has a 3D like effect - quite spectacular!! Congrats 
to the Weather Co. on continually updating information services for 
us "weather freaks".

Paul in Darwin
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X-Originating-IP: [139.134.23.67]
From: "Shaun Whelan" <wheelsthepusser at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado's
Date: Thu, 09 Nov 2000 20:48:20 EST
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<x-flowed>
      From the amount of traffic about the subject of tornadoes/USA vs. 
Aus/sightings etc. it seems that there is a(an?)us versus them type of 
thinking. This is great in that it develops flows of conversation and 
thoughts/ideas IRT Wx phenomena but does seem to drag on a little bit. We 
are talking about two entirely different continental land masses. Anyway, 
everybody knows that SE NSW storms kick ass.
                             Shaun     Nowra
                                             (flak jacket donned)
          P.S.    Nix Wx


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From: "Hector Pascal" <hectorpascal at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado's
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 21:15:24 +1100
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Hi John + everyone,
I'm still not convinced that Australia has anything geographically that
would make it more prone to supercells and tornadoes than any other
continental, mid lattitude region.  The US midwest, on the other hand, has a
very good geographical setup with the high plains in the south-west creating
an mid level unstable air mass which is advected north-east, capping off the
humid Gulf air below as Harald Richter pointed out...Added to that, the
Rocky's would create some favourable lee troughs...
I wonder how common tornadic thunderstorms are in such places as: Europe,
Russia, China, South Africa and South America???  I'll bet they get their
fair share too.
Hector.

So, it would seem that
----- Original Message -----
From: John Woodbridge <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 09, 2000 6:50 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tornado's


> Hi Blair,
>
> I would respectfully suggest that the same study conducted in the 90's
might
> revise some of these figures upwards, as also has happened in the American
> midwest since the 50's & 60's,  which is just a function of increased
> population density and greater awareness/education re meteorological
> phenomena.
>
> I think it also might be reasonable to correlate likely tornado frequency
> with known thunderstorm frequency figures which varies quite markedly over
> the region discussed.
>
> John.
> >snip
>
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado's
>
> A study based on sightings from the 1950's and 1960's showed that
> the grid squares centred on major cities (the study, if I recall
> correctly, counted observed tornadoes in each 1 x 1 degree grid square)
> had about 10 times the frequency of observed tornadoes of surrounding
> grid squares. This would suggest that, at the time, about 90% of
> tornadoes in rural areas went unreported (assuming that everything
> within the metropolitan areas did get reported).
>
> That study found a frequency in the Sydney region which was on a
> par with the eastern coastal states of the U.S, and one-third to
> one-quarter of that in the Midwest. It would seem reasonable to
> assume that that frequency is broadly representative of much of
> eastern New South Wales and Queensland.
>
> Blair Trewin
>
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