Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 00:14:31 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: Another Supercell Chase Report!
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Hi all!

On Sunday I was priviledged enough to chase two supercells that went
through SE QLD - one had a very spectacular wall cloud!  The chase
report is at:

http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/storm-chasing/2000/05-11/anthony/ 

If this helps to the current thread of conversation (re tornadoes),
there have been at the very least, 6 supercells in SE QLD within 100km
of Brisbane from Nov 3-5, Nov 6 didn't yield anything that I thought was
supercellular unfortunately!  On top of that, revising my current
'talley,' I chased 4 of these and observed 3 wall clouds, and 3 funnels,
of which two funnels may or may have not touched the ground as I
couldn't tell due to trees/hills :-(  Ben observed one tornado (or
gustnado, but still a tornado), as well as an unconfirmed tornado
sighting near Ipswich!  On top of that, you will see in this Nov 5
report another possible wall cloud, but it could just be a lowering/type
of outflow region, as it was too far away to tell, and make of what you
want of the large funnel-like rotating prong that came out of the rear
of one of the supercells.

Not bad I would have thought for a stalled trough with marginal-moderate
shear.  But I think really, without a couple more years of chasing and
reports in Australia, we can only speculate.
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tornado's
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 00:40:20 +1000
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Hi Hector,

Yes indeed.  In fact, from world wide thunderstorm frequency maps I have
seen, by far and away the most thunderstorm active part of the world is
Central East Africa, which cleans up everywhere including the U.S. mid west.
This derives from the topography of the place which results in the ITCZ
parked well South across high plains country for a significant part of the
year.  One day I would like to spend some time in the region!

And I agree with you - Oz doesn't have the conducive topography that the U.S
mid west has, and consequently nowhere near as many severe supercells.  We
require some pretty unusual combination of conditions with upper level cold
pools in mid-summer to generate exceptionally severe storms.  Consequently
the severity and number of really severe tornadoes (F3 or above) I expect to
be much lower.  But we do still get them (Bucca & Bulladelah events for
example).  My feeling however, is that the number of weak tornadoes F0..F1
might be quite similar.

What I have never seen or heard of in Australia is LP storm systems which
produce tornado families, with as many as half a dozen vortices visible at
one time.  This does happen in the U.S. mid-west and that certainly is a
distinction.

Regards,
John.
>snip

Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado's
Hi John + everyone,
I'm still not convinced that Australia has anything geographically that
would make it more prone to supercells and tornadoes than any other
continental, mid lattitude region.  The US midwest, on the other hand, has a
very good geographical setup with the high plains in the south-west creating
an mid level unstable air mass which is advected north-east, capping off the
humid Gulf air below as Harald Richter pointed out...Added to that, the
Rocky's would create some favourable lee troughs...
I wonder how common tornadic thunderstorms are in such places as: Europe,
Russia, China, South Africa and South America???  I'll bet they get their
fair share too.
Hector.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 11:13:37 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado's
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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John wrote,

> I'm still not convinced that Australia has anything geographically that
> would make it more prone to supercells and tornadoes than any other
> continental, mid lattitude region.  The US midwest, on the other hand,
has a
> very good geographical setup with the high plains in the south-west
creating
> an mid level unstable air mass which is advected north-east, capping off
the
> humid Gulf air below as Harald Richter pointed out...Added to that, the
> Rocky's would create some favourable lee troughs...
> I wonder how common tornadic thunderstorms are in such places as: Europe,
> Russia, China, South Africa and South America???  I'll bet they get their
> fair share too.

Indeed, the geography of the US central plains does encourage the
environmental stratification leading to the development of a caped but very
unstable, low-level, warm and most airmass within a strongly sheared
troposphere.  The deep shear itself is, in part, the result of the
juxtaposition of the mountains as is the the thermal stratification.

Harold Brooks at NSSL has done a climatological study of tornadoes and
severe storms.  His home page is http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~brooks.  I have
asked him for more detailed information on severe storm climatology outside
the US.  I know he has done something recently on the subject.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Harald Richter <hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadoes
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 10:29:14 -0600 (CST)
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Hi folks,

Shaun Welan wondered:

> From the amount of traffic about the subject of tornadoes/USA vs. 
> Aus/sightings etc. it seems that there is a(an?)us versus them type of 
> thinking. ... 

First, I do enjoy the tornado thread.
Shaun's train of thought never occured to me until I read his comment.
For me, this *comparative* discussion has the potential to 
separate important from less important geographical ingredients
regarding the formation of severe storms.

David Croan typed in response to Lyle Pakula:

> ... but to compare Colarado 
> to your experience in Melbourne is probably not a reasonable comparison in 
> anycase. I can tell you one thing, having spent quite a lot of time there, 
> California is no tornado alley :-) 

I think the comparison between California and S Victoria is more 
appropriate, too.  There are more similarities in terms of the 
geographical setup and the type of tornadoes observed (high shear,
low CAPE).  For the time being I assume that Australia's 
``tornado alley'' is N NSW and S QLD (despite the ``Mandurah Phenomenon'').

> ... [Out of curiosity I would be interested to know the 
> annual thunderstorm / severe thunderstorm statistics for Denver-Boulder, or 
> better, similar sized cities in the heart of tornado alley (Oklahoma city, 
> Dallas-Fort Worth) - perhaps double the Australian figures??]

Check out Harold Brooks' climatology at  http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/ .

David Croan added:

> ... Of course the central US would seem to have more 
> favourable conditions for severe storms more often but I think if the 
> abovementioned areas of Australia had a similar road network, similar 
> population density and no. of chasers...then you might be very surprised.

Yes.  At the moment we are comparing numbers that suffer from under-reporting
to numbers that suffer strongly from under-reporting.  This is the major
problem in this comparative discussion and leaves room for all kinds of
speculations and guesses.  Maybe a satellite severe climo comparison could
be done on a level playing field.  Maybe I'll find the time one day to do it.
Maybe I am using maybe too much.

> ...I would like a dollar 
> for everytime I have heard Florida being labelled the 'lightning capital of 
> the world'.

You'd be so rich that Australia would be covered with a dense network of
your Doppler radars and wind profilers.  

John Woodbridge typed:

> In fact, from world wide thunderstorm frequency maps I have
> seen, by far and away the most thunderstorm active part of the world is
> Central East Africa, which cleans up everywhere including the U.S. mid west.

I think that statement holds for *general* thunderstorms.  The tropics
lack the wind shear regime to organise that general convection
into *severe* convection, though.  It takes deep baroclinic zones
to ``build up'' a strong upper-level jet via the thermal wind relation. 

...and Hector Pascal stated:

> I wonder how common tornadic thunderstorms are in such places as: Europe,
> Russia, China, South Africa and South America???  I'll bet they get their
> fair share too.

Based on geographical ingredient speculation I would love to visit
Bangladesh (incredible lapse rates from N flow over the mountains;  check
the satellite-derived CAPEs),  N Argentina and SE China.  

I better quit,
Harald


-- 
-------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069, U.S.A.
ph.:    (405) 366-0430
fax:    (405) 579-0808
email:  hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov
web:    http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~hrichter
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 11:33:16 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornados
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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David Croan wrote:
                        ...much deleted....
> This season in NE NSW / SE QLD in particular is far more active than the
US 
> was in May / June 2000 when I was there (going by satpics and radar) 
> although naturally many more tornadoes were bagged in the US - not really
a 
> surprise. With only two handfulls of chasers out last Friday to Sunday 
> covering 4 tiny dots (Sydney, Brisbane, Coffs Harbour, Lismore) in what
is a 
> 1100km X 200km box of mostly uninhabited land where severe storms
erupted, 
> and on a very limited road network, the results were numerous supercells,
3 
> confirmed tornadoes and several reliable accounts of funnel
clouds/possible 
> tornadoes not confirmed due to a sub-tropical rainforest being in the
way. I 
> have no doubt that if we 'magically' transported the offending weather 
> system to the US midwest (with hoards of chasers and brilliant roads),
then 
> many more tornadoes would have been had.

Your are correct in my estimation.  Our population density, our obsession
with technology and communication, and all the organized chase groups, both
"official" (as part of scientific research programs) and the many
'unofficial' groups leads to an 'exageration' to an extent. of the US
severe storm climatology.  Even in the US, as documented in the past, we
noted a concentration of severe storm reports along interstate hiways in
regions of low population density.  However, our climate is, in fact, one
of vast variation and one with severe storms of all kinds.

Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tornadoes
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 02:28:52 +1000
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And on we go,...

I personally think that coastal California is more closely alligned to SW
Western Australia in climatology than Victoria.

As regards interesting places.  Bangladesh is certainly noted for it's
severe storms and tornado experiences.  I think more folks have been killed
in Bangladesh through severe hail (I mean football sized stuff) than
anywhere else.  Northern Italy seems to be a bit of hot spot too.

John,
>snip

I think the comparison between California and S Victoria is more
appropriate, too.  There are more similarities in terms of the
geographical setup and the type of tornadoes observed (high shear,
low CAPE).  For the time being I assume that Australia's
``tornado alley'' is N NSW and S QLD (despite the ``Mandurah Phenomenon'').

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 13:02:21 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tornado's
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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John Woodbridgen wrote:

> What I have never seen or heard of in Australia is LP storm systems which
> produce tornado families, with as many as half a dozen vortices visible
at
> one time.  This does happen in the U.S. mid-west and that certainly is a
> distinction.

The LP storms are not the cyclic tornado producers in the US.  LP storms
are often small, short lived, and primarily produce hail.  Those that live
longer will often evolve into the 'classic' supercell.  It is the so-called
"classic" supercell that can be a family producer.  Estimates are that
about 40% of these storms produce sequential tornadoes.  Last year's
Oklahoma outbreak on May 3rd was an outbreak of these 'classic' supercell
storms.  These storms produce a series of tornadoes, not uncommonly over a
several hour time-frame.  Usually there are only two in existence at one
time.  One entering the dissipating "rope" stage with an occluding
mesocyclone core and another developing and enlarging tornado with a second
 maturing mesocyclone core.  There seems to about a 40-minute period to
tornado occurrences with these storms. 

However, you may also remember the photos of a short tcu line-segment with
several tornadoes (six or more) on the ground simultaneously side-by-side. 
These tornadoes were much more the "land-spout" variety.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Apparently-From: <njsykes at yahoo.com>
From: "Nick Sykes" <njsykes at yahoo.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Stroms:Victoria
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 06:50:04 +1100
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Hey all


It's always good to wake up in the  morning at 6am with the BOM discussing
how wild the weather is going to be over Victoria in the next few days.
Words like, local heavy falls, flash flooding and hail get you out of bed
very quickly :):) The BOM have upped the forecast with thunderstorms
becoming widespread this afternoon through central and eastern vic, with
heavy local heavy falls, tending to rain.

Storms developed over the east of the state overnight, and this morning
active cells are over the west coast and a new cell is developing to the
west of melbourne.

Visual obs have it mostly cloudy with an area of clearance to the SW which
is revealing what looks like a cell down that way. Humidity is very high,
temp around 17 here.

O.K now for the negatives.There is a lot of cloud around, which i dont like.
The weather seems to be heading in from the north, where at present a rather
large area of rain is located. And I have to go to work today, so want be
able to chase, grrrr.

For those chasing I would basically stick just west of the clearance, in
west central vic, say ballarat region. This area looks primmed for severe
storm activity this afternoon, and as Jane said, gives you access to a lot
of directions, quickly.

And I would just like to add, well done to the Weather Company, they have
provided us weather freaks with an extremly valuable resourse, well done
people. Looking forward to test out the new radar during the next week.

STORMS FOR A WEEK, WOHOOOOOOOOOOO :)

Nick Sykes


_________________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get your free  at yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Harald Richter <hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov>
Subject: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: VIC
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 15:07:29 -0600 (CST)
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Unto the VICs:

My general difficulty with a Friday VIC forecast is a lack
of focal boundaries/points in the data I have available.

In the 20 UTC surface data I see a surface trough running from W of MEL 
all the way up to Darwin.  PBL moisture in VIC looks decent throughout 
most of the state,  with a hint of an enhanced moist axis 
extending from N central VIC due N.  WV shows a weak upper-level
cyclonic circulation sagging SE towards TAS with a hint of a dry 
slot that entered SW VIC a while ago.  The leading edge of the
dry slot is already E of MEL.  Some cooler air aloft probably 
rotated around to the N side of the circulation centre and is
presently associated with convection S of Cape Otway.  
Maybe nature is giving us a hint here?

Projected flow aloft looks too weak for any severe weather in VIC, 
but the model fields I looked at were so smooth that it wasn't funny.  
The +18 h Mesolaps forecast for 06 UTC shows a hint of a
meridional near-surface confluence/convergence line along
the VIC/SA border - a long way to go for an 18 h model forecast
on the kilometre scale.  I'd scan for areas with a few hours of 
sunshine which will have an advantage.  

Good luck to those who will set out,

Harald


-- 
-------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069, U.S.A.
ph.:    (405) 366-0430
fax:    (405) 579-0808
email:  hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov
web:    http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~hrichter
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.134.172.151]
From: "Ben Jerrems" <beanzvision at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Lightning!
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 08:14:21 EST
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<x-flowed>
Hi all?
        What a night i had. Went to Doncaster to make myself at home for the 
next few hours, heaps of CG's. Three rolls later....
Will put them up today (Fingers crossed)

        Ben-MSC
_________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Les" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: "aus-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadoes
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 21:30:56 -0000
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----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 09, 2000 4:28 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tornadoes


> And on we go,...
>
> I personally think that coastal California is more closely alligned to SW
> Western Australia in climatology than Victoria.
>
> As regards interesting places.  Bangladesh is certainly noted for it's
> severe storms and tornado experiences.  I think more folks have been
killed
> in Bangladesh through severe hail (I mean football sized stuff) than
> anywhere else.  Northern Italy seems to be a bit of hot spot too.
>
Northern Italy is the most supercell prone place in Europe, two reported
meso events in the year 2000 (Palma) - by virtue of its location it gets all
manner of interesting airmasses mixing it up and going sky high...

Bangladesh, India, China, the Federation of Russian States or whatever its
called today are tornadic but noone knows by quite how much.

Central France, the Netherlands and most of Europe approach the statistical
norm for tornadic events (Brooks).

The UK is the grandaddy of them all being the most tornadic place in Europe
with a hugely disproportionate number of these short lived (up to 10
minutes) F0-1 / T0-4 non-supercell tornadoes (Lemon landspouts) and most of
them in wintertime - if any of you follow uksciwx you'll know what I'm
talking about - pretty well most active / ana cold fronts seem to  spawn at
least one tornadic event across its length and one notable example had an
anafront spawn 40! Summertime can  produce MCS / MCC / supercell events and
their associated tornadic / hail activity indeed it was a forward flank
updraught HP supercell event at Wokingham, southern UK, in 1959 that, quite
literally, sparked the whole supercell thingy off as this baby got within
radar range of the rudimentary radar they had at the time.

So if anyone wants to chase Europe do it in northern Italy in the summer and
chase cold fronts in the UK in the winter (:

Les (UK)





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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Pearce" <rpearce2 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Radio wx forecasts
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 08:42:14 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Equivalent to the "mini-tornado" saga, I find the 
most infuriating thing by far on radio wx forecasts is the fact they completely 
alter what the BoM says or make it up altogether. Now, this may not necessarilly 
be a bad thing, but I would suggest it is only done by someone with a bit of met 
knowledge. So this brings me to this morning:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>2DAYFM in Sydney(one of the most notorious for this 
activity) has been saying all morning:"Partly cloudy with a few showers around". 
On the surface, this may not appear too different from the BoM's "Chance of an 
early coastal shower then fine", but when you consider that the first implies 
showers possible in Penrith in the afternoon, and the second has no mention of 
the latter there is a bit of a difference. Anyway, after many days of this I 
gave up and rang 2dayfm, going through various people who didn't care until I 
finally got onto the newsreader for MMM(a rival station!!!...apparently they 
work for the same company...). They actually report wx properly from my 
experience(one of the few commercial ones that do), and sure enough the 
newsreader agreed with me. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Basically, the main problem I have is that firstly, 
if there are warnings issued, they invariably don't read them out or read them 
wrong. Secondly, people get their wx info from the radio and if this is wrong, 
they then blame the BoM or meteorologists in general, despite the fact the 
forecast was made up by a newsreader sitting in Bondi looking out the window. It 
generally lowers the credibility of meteorologists.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Maybe I am just raving, but my number one goal is 
to get ACCURATE wx info to the public by whatever means, to raise the perceived 
standards of forecasting in Australia.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Incidentally, as I have been writing this, 2DAYFM 
has just announced "Cloudy with a few coastal showers today"...sigh...better 
than before I suppose...and the newsreader is making all sorts of snide comments 
about "well it bloody better become fine" blah blah blah...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Enough of my paranoias and rantings</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Matt Pearce</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado's
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 15:05:19 -0700
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi John,

curious to that stat - are we talking thunderstorms or tornado producing
thunderstorms?

Cheers, Lyle.

----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 09, 2000 7:40 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tornado's


> Hi Hector,
>
> Yes indeed.  In fact, from world wide thunderstorm frequency maps I have
> seen, by far and away the most thunderstorm active part of the world is
> Central East Africa, which cleans up everywhere including the U.S. mid
west.
> This derives from the topography of the place which results in the ITCZ
> parked well South across high plains country for a significant part of the
> year.  One day I would like to spend some time in the region!
>
> And I agree with you - Oz doesn't have the conducive topography that the
U.S
> mid west has, and consequently nowhere near as many severe supercells.  We
> require some pretty unusual combination of conditions with upper level
cold
> pools in mid-summer to generate exceptionally severe storms.  Consequently
> the severity and number of really severe tornadoes (F3 or above) I expect
to
> be much lower.  But we do still get them (Bucca & Bulladelah events for
> example).  My feeling however, is that the number of weak tornadoes F0..F1
> might be quite similar.
>
> What I have never seen or heard of in Australia is LP storm systems which
> produce tornado families, with as many as half a dozen vortices visible at
> one time.  This does happen in the U.S. mid-west and that certainly is a
> distinction.
>
> Regards,
> John.
> >snip
>
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado's
> Hi John + everyone,
> I'm still not convinced that Australia has anything geographically that
> would make it more prone to supercells and tornadoes than any other
> continental, mid lattitude region.  The US midwest, on the other hand, has
a
> very good geographical setup with the high plains in the south-west
creating
> an mid level unstable air mass which is advected north-east, capping off
the
> humid Gulf air below as Harald Richter pointed out...Added to that, the
> Rocky's would create some favourable lee troughs...
> I wonder how common tornadic thunderstorms are in such places as: Europe,
> Russia, China, South Africa and South America???  I'll bet they get their
> fair share too.
> Hector.
>
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From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornados
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 15:02:08 -0700
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Hi,

I just got some stats - here in Ft Collins, we get avg 60 Thunderstorm days
per year. Just south of here, along the front range it can get up to 80 per
year.  Oklahoma is about 40 but what you have to remember is that we have
the mountains to break the cap, so our storms are more numerous but much
less powerfull - if a storm is going to break in Oak - it's probbaly going
to be severe.

cheers, LYle

----- Original Message -----
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 09, 2000 11:20 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornados


> Lyle wrote:
> >i guess my only experiene in Aus is in Victoria.
> <snip>
> Although I imagine you were generalising / simplifying -> "US definatly
> deserves the right to have the name 'Tornado Alley'" but to compare
Colarado
> to your experience in Melbourne is probably not a reasonable comparison in
> anycase. I can tell you one thing, having spent quite a lot of time there,
> California is no tornado alley :-) Sure Melbourne can sometimes get nice
> storms, but Sydney (with an avarage 10 'severe' days and 40 thunderdays
per
> annum) and Brisbane (similar or possibly even higher) probably get as many
> severe thunderstorm days each year as Melbourne does total thunderstorms,
> just as Melbourne gets winter cold outbreaks that the east coast cities
> could only dream about. [Out of curiosity I would be interested to know
the
> annual thunderstorm / severe thunderstorm statistics for Denver-Boulder,
or
> better, similar sized cities in the heart of tornado alley (Oklahoma city,
> Dallas-Fort Worth) - perhaps double the Australian figures??]
>
> In other words a better comparison would be the US great plains and Mid
West
> with Australia' most severe storm prone region ie roughly, the great
divide
> adjacent east coast and western ranges running from south of Sydney to
> perhaps Bundaberg in Qld. Of course the central US would seem to have more
> favourable conditions for severe storms more often but I think if the
> abovementioned areas of Australia had a similar road network, similar
> population density and no. of chasers...then you might be very surprised.
I
> suggest that the perception of tornado alley as being that is partly due
> there being some more tornadic storms than Australia, largely due to the
> actual threat of severe storms to people and property and, if I can
> generalise, cultural differences between Americans and Australians. Don't
> get me wrong I love the US and admire the culture but I would like a
dollar
> for everytime I have heard Florida being labelled the 'lightning capital
of
> the world'.
>
> This season in NE NSW / SE QLD in particular is far more active than the
US
> was in May / June 2000 when I was there (going by satpics and radar)
> although naturally many more tornadoes were bagged in the US - not really
a
> surprise. With only two handfulls of chasers out last Friday to Sunday
> covering 4 tiny dots (Sydney, Brisbane, Coffs Harbour, Lismore) in what is
a
> 1100km X 200km box of mostly uninhabited land where severe storms erupted,
> and on a very limited road network, the results were numerous supercells,
3
> confirmed tornadoes and several reliable accounts of funnel
clouds/possible
> tornadoes not confirmed due to a sub-tropical rainforest being in the way.
I
> have no doubt that if we 'magically' transported the offending weather
> system to the US midwest (with hoards of chasers and brilliant roads),
then
> many more tornadoes would have been had.
>
> More than enough from me.
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
> Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at
> http://profiles.msn.com.
>
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Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 08:47:00 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley at cobweb.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all

Just a slight divergence (aloft?:) from the current 'supercell wars'.

We all know that fuel prices have risen a lot in the last 6 months.  I also
note the large distances covered by some of our eastern states chasers
(justified, based on recent activity!).  My question is this: has anyone
got to the stage of curtailing the frequency/length of their chases simply
based on their rising cost?

Just interested.  This is eventually going to be a factor if prices keep
rising..........

And, now back to the supercells ;)

Phil


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 09:34:40 +1100 (AEDT)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornados
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Lyle,

That puts Oklahoma on about a par with Brisbane in terms of thunderstorm
days (if its defined in terms of thunder being audible - which is
something I've always wondered about - who is doing the listening, are
they only listening at synoptic hours, what happens if the site is in a
noisy area - are biases introduced by this?). Also similar to over there,
the border ranges just to the south of Brisbane receives about 80 thunder
days. 

Of course, this says absolutely nothing about the severity of the storms,
and so should probably be in a different thread!! 


Cheers,

Jonty.
____________________________________________________________________

Jonty Hall                   jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au

CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
Monash University
Wellington Road,
Clayton, Vic   3168

Ph +61 3 9905 9684

____________________________________________________________________

On Thu, 9 Nov 2000, Lyle Pakula wrote:

> Hi,
> 
> I just got some stats - here in Ft Collins, we get avg 60 Thunderstorm days
> per year. Just south of here, along the front range it can get up to 80 per
> year.  Oklahoma is about 40 but what you have to remember is that we have
> the mountains to break the cap, so our storms are more numerous but much
> less powerfull - if a storm is going to break in Oak - it's probbaly going
> to be severe.
> 
> cheers, LYle
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, November 09, 2000 11:20 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornados
> 
> 
> > Lyle wrote:
> > >i guess my only experiene in Aus is in Victoria.
> > <snip>
> > Although I imagine you were generalising / simplifying -> "US definatly
> > deserves the right to have the name 'Tornado Alley'" but to compare
> Colarado
> > to your experience in Melbourne is probably not a reasonable comparison in
> > anycase. I can tell you one thing, having spent quite a lot of time there,
> > California is no tornado alley :-) Sure Melbourne can sometimes get nice
> > storms, but Sydney (with an avarage 10 'severe' days and 40 thunderdays
> per
> > annum) and Brisbane (similar or possibly even higher) probably get as many
> > severe thunderstorm days each year as Melbourne does total thunderstorms,
> > just as Melbourne gets winter cold outbreaks that the east coast cities
> > could only dream about. [Out of curiosity I would be interested to know
> the
> > annual thunderstorm / severe thunderstorm statistics for Denver-Boulder,
> or
> > better, similar sized cities in the heart of tornado alley (Oklahoma city,
> > Dallas-Fort Worth) - perhaps double the Australian figures??]
> >
> > In other words a better comparison would be the US great plains and Mid
> West
> > with Australia' most severe storm prone region ie roughly, the great
> divide
> > adjacent east coast and western ranges running from south of Sydney to
> > perhaps Bundaberg in Qld. Of course the central US would seem to have more
> > favourable conditions for severe storms more often but I think if the
> > abovementioned areas of Australia had a similar road network, similar
> > population density and no. of chasers...then you might be very surprised.
> I
> > suggest that the perception of tornado alley as being that is partly due
> > there being some more tornadic storms than Australia, largely due to the
> > actual threat of severe storms to people and property and, if I can
> > generalise, cultural differences between Americans and Australians. Don't
> > get me wrong I love the US and admire the culture but I would like a
> dollar
> > for everytime I have heard Florida being labelled the 'lightning capital
> of
> > the world'.
> >
> > This season in NE NSW / SE QLD in particular is far more active than the
> US
> > was in May / June 2000 when I was there (going by satpics and radar)
> > although naturally many more tornadoes were bagged in the US - not really
> a
> > surprise. With only two handfulls of chasers out last Friday to Sunday
> > covering 4 tiny dots (Sydney, Brisbane, Coffs Harbour, Lismore) in what is
> a
> > 1100km X 200km box of mostly uninhabited land where severe storms erupted,
> > and on a very limited road network, the results were numerous supercells,
> 3
> > confirmed tornadoes and several reliable accounts of funnel
> clouds/possible
> > tornadoes not confirmed due to a sub-tropical rainforest being in the way.
> I
> > have no doubt that if we 'magically' transported the offending weather
> > system to the US midwest (with hoards of chasers and brilliant roads),
> then
> > many more tornadoes would have been had.
> >
> > More than enough from me.
> > _________________________________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
> > Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at
> > http://profiles.msn.com.
> >
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> 
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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 10:05:23 +1100
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Phil,
<snip>
My question is this: has anyone got to the stage of curtailing the
frequency/length of their chases simply based on their rising cost?

Answer: NO!!!!  Last year I chased 32,000km out of the 45,000km I travelled
in total!!!  I'll do it again tomorrow & tomorrow & tomorrow & tomorrow &
tomorrow.....................................................

Jane
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------




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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 09:14:08 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Phil,

I've actually considered bringing up the costs of fuel and chasing
before!  Bring back the days back in early '99 when fuel was 55c/L or
less I say!  I guess at least we're lucky in QLD as we get a fuel rebate
(I filled up at 76.9c/L the other day - although most places seem to be
in the low 80's right now).

Does it take its toll?  Well...not quite now, but soon it will.  Over
the past 6 months I've been saving every penny I could for this storm
season, so that if there were a few days of storms nearby, I could
simply take out some money out of my 'chase account' and go chasing. 
However, unlike Bill Gates account...this is finite, and will run out
quickly if we have a few more systems like Nov 3-6!  Where as I wouldn't
run out as quickly if fuel was back to much more sensible prices.  I
would assume it would be something similar for other chasers.

As for did it effect me last weekend?  No...I still chased the way I
normally would (ie, I didn't think "I won't go too far, fuel is too
expensive, don't want to use too much").  But I did cut down on chase
'luxuries' (ie, the heavenly greasey handburger while watching the first
weak cells pulse, and the satisfying 24hr McDonalds burger on the way
back home).  The only thing I bought, was a ribena berry poppy (ok, I'm
a big kid at heart and love blackcurrant juice! :)  I didn't buy
food/drink - I took cans from home with me, and only ate when I was at
home - but even then I think I had 2-3 meals over that 4 days!

So I saved money this way!  But it really would be nice to see the old
prices back again.

AC

Phil Bagust wrote:
> 
> Hi all
> 
> Just a slight divergence (aloft?:) from the current 'supercell wars'.
> 
> We all know that fuel prices have risen a lot in the last 6 months.  I also
> note the large distances covered by some of our eastern states chasers
> (justified, based on recent activity!).  My question is this: has anyone
> got to the stage of curtailing the frequency/length of their chases simply
> based on their rising cost?
> 
> Just interested.  This is eventually going to be a factor if prices keep
> rising..........
> 
> And, now back to the supercells ;)
> 
> Phil
> 
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 10:37:44 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: THUNDERDAYS - was tornadoes
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Sorry for the duplication - my email program crashed and chopped some stuff off
----


If anyone is putting some sort of thunderday map together of Australia (BoM 
has one for 1950-1959), then take a look at the Plateau west of Coffs 
Harbour in NE NSW. I think this is a real hot spot and would no doubt 
receive more than the Border Ranges. Since having access to radar in this 
area, without fail this elevated terrain (up to 1500 metres, but mostly 
around 1000 metres) fires up every time, even in the most marginal setups.

 From Coffs Harbour at the coast, the terrain rises rapidly to Dorrigo, and 
juts out surrounded by two coastal plains - the Clarence Valley to the 
north and Bellingen to the south. It can therefore by a convergence zone 
for any surface SE or NE winds, but activity generally forms along its 
northeastern slopes heading down into the Clarence Valley.

Please also note the spelling of TORNADOES weather people  !!!!!!!

regards, Michael




At 09:34 10/11/2000 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi Lyle,
>
>That puts Oklahoma on about a par with Brisbane in terms of thunderstorm
>days (if its defined in terms of thunder being audible - which is
>something I've always wondered about - who is doing the listening, are
>they only listening at synoptic hours, what happens if the site is in a
>noisy area - are biases introduced by this?). Also similar to over there,
>the border ranges just to the south of Brisbane receives about 80 thunder
>days.
>
>Of course, this says absolutely nothing about the severity of the storms,
>and so should probably be in a different thread!!
>
>
>Cheers,
>
>Jonty.
>____________________________________________________________________
>
>Jonty Hall                   jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au
>
>CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
>Monash University
>Wellington Road,
>Clayton, Vic   3168
>
>Ph +61 3 9905 9684
>
>__

  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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</x-flowed>
From: NinnesM at franklins.com.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Radio wx forecasts
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 10:27:03 +1100
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Matt,

I have noticed similar shortfalls with commercial radio stations
broadcasting weather info.  A classic example was last Friday in Sydney,
several of the big FM stations seemed to be 'lagging' in their broadcasts of
the latest STW's, some of them being almost 20-30 minutes late with their
updates.

Mal Ninnes



> ----------
> From: 	Pearce[SMTP:rpearce2 at bigpond.net.au]
> Sent: 	Friday, 10 November 2000 8:42
> To: 	aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: 	aus-wx: Radio wx forecasts
> 
> Hi all
>  
> Equivalent to the "mini-tornado" saga, I find the most infuriating thing
> by far on radio wx forecasts is the fact they completely alter what the
> BoM says or make it up altogether. Now, this may not necessarilly be a bad
> thing, but I would suggest it is only done by someone with a bit of met
> knowledge. So this brings me to this morning:
> 2DAYFM in Sydney(one of the most notorious for this activity) has been
> saying all morning:"Partly cloudy with a few showers around". On the
> surface, this may not appear too different from the BoM's "Chance of an
> early coastal shower then fine", but when you consider that the first
> implies showers possible in Penrith in the afternoon, and the second has
> no mention of the latter there is a bit of a difference. Anyway, after
> many days of this I gave up and rang 2dayfm, going through various people
> who didn't care until I finally got onto the newsreader for MMM(a rival
> station!!!...apparently they work for the same company...). They actually
> report wx properly from my experience(one of the few commercial ones that
> do), and sure enough the newsreader agreed with me. 
>  
> Basically, the main problem I have is that firstly, if there are warnings
> issued, they invariably don't read them out or read them wrong. Secondly,
> people get their wx info from the radio and if this is wrong, they then
> blame the BoM or meteorologists in general, despite the fact the forecast
> was made up by a newsreader sitting in Bondi looking out the window. It
> generally lowers the credibility of meteorologists.
>  
> Maybe I am just raving, but my number one goal is to get ACCURATE wx info
> to the public by whatever means, to raise the perceived standards of
> forecasting in Australia.
>  
> Incidentally, as I have been writing this, 2DAYFM has just announced
> "Cloudy with a few coastal showers today"...sigh...better than before I
> suppose...and the newsreader is making all sorts of snide comments about
> "well it bloody better become fine" blah blah blah...
>  
> Enough of my paranoias and rantings
>  
> Matt Pearce
> 
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Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 18:47:50 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
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I normally think in terms of mks units but I am uncertain how many Ls ther
are in an English gallon.  But I just filled the tank for $1.26 per gallon.
 That is as inexpensive as I have seen fuel in many months.  How does this
compare to what you mates pay?

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 11:08:56 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
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<x-flowed>
1 gallon is a bit over 4 litres

Country NSW is around the $1/litre mark in most places, but price wars keep 
it lower in places. In Lismore where I live near, a discount war has been 
going for about 3 weeks with fuel around 85 cents per litre.

I don't do much long distance chasing due to work and family commitments so 
the cost for me doesn't come into any consideration. The two chases I did 
last Saturday and Sunday were only about 200 kilometres each (~125 miles).

regards, Michael



At 18:47 09/11/2000 -0500, you wrote:
>I normally think in terms of mks units but I am uncertain how many Ls ther
>are in an English gallon.  But I just filled the tank for $1.26 per gallon.
>  That is as inexpensive as I have seen fuel in many months.  How does this
>compare to what you mates pay?
>
>Les
>
>************************
>Leslie R. Lemon
>Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
>Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
>E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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</x-flowed>
From: "Peter Newham" <P.Newham at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: VIC THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 10:25:00 +1000
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small cells are just popping up in central west on radar...could be a sign
of things to come.


pete

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Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 11:02:58 +0930
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From: Phil Bagust <paisley at cobweb.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide action!
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Splendid looking activity over the Gawler/Barossa region at present.  Went
briefly red on the radar.  Pileus capped towers visible from Adelaide.
Seemed to align e-w on the local loop.  Guster/outflow boundary?

Very muggy in Adelaide.

Is it a one off pulse or should I chase?  Waiting waiting.....

Phil


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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley at cobweb.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

>I normally think in terms of mks units but I am uncertain how many Ls ther
>are in an English gallon.  But I just filled the tank for $1.26 per gallon.
> That is as inexpensive as I have seen fuel in many months.  How does this
>compare to what you mates pay?
>
>Les
>
>************************
>Leslie R. Lemon
>Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
>Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
>E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


Hi Les

I think you pay around half what we pay - so it is a factor!

Phil


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Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 11:06:22 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley at cobweb.com.au>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>Phil,
><snip>
>My question is this: has anyone got to the stage of curtailing the
>frequency/length of their chases simply based on their rising cost?
>
>Answer: NO!!!!  Last year I chased 32,000km out of the 45,000km I travelled
>in total!!!  I'll do it again tomorrow & tomorrow & tomorrow & tomorrow &
>tomorrow.....................................................
>
>Jane


Jane.  You rock!

Phil


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at australia.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide action!
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 11:53:21 +1100
Organization: ASWA Victoria
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.600" name=GENERATOR>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Watching it too here Phil.....I'd be iclined to go 
after it mate :-)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>PaulY</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=paisley at cobweb.com.au href="mailto:paisley at cobweb.com.au">Phil 
  Bagust</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, November 10, 2000 12:32 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Adelaide 
  action!</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>Splendid looking activity over the Gawler/Barossa region at 
  present.&nbsp; Went<BR>briefly red on the radar.&nbsp; Pileus capped towers 
  visible from Adelaide.<BR>Seemed to align e-w on the local loop.&nbsp; 
  Guster/outflow boundary?<BR><BR>Very muggy in Adelaide.<BR><BR>Is it a one off 
  pulse or should I chase?&nbsp; Waiting 
  waiting.....<BR><BR>Phil<BR><BR><BR>&nbsp;+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>&nbsp;To 
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  href="mailto:-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au</A>------------------------------<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: Blair Trewin <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 11:55:46 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> >I normally think in terms of mks units but I am uncertain how many Ls ther
> >are in an English gallon.  But I just filled the tank for $1.26 per gallon.
> > That is as inexpensive as I have seen fuel in many months.  How does this
> >compare to what you mates pay?
> >
> >Les
> >
> >************************
> >Leslie R. Lemon
> >Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> >Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
> >E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> 
> 
> Hi Les
> 
> I think you pay around half what we pay - so it is a factor!
> 
> Phil

In California in August it was averaging about $1.90/gallon, which
works out at about A$0.95 per litre - about the same as here. 
Obviously Oklahoma is somewhat cheaper. (Common mistakes that 
Australians make when comparing American fuel prices to ours are
to forget to do the currency conversion, and that an American gallon
is only about 80% of a British one).

Blair Trewin
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From: Blair Trewin <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: THUNDERDAYS - was tornadoes
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 11:58:35 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> Sorry for the duplication - my email program crashed and chopped some stuff off
> ----
> 
> 
> If anyone is putting some sort of thunderday map together of Australia (BoM 
> has one for 1950-1959), then take a look at the Plateau west of Coffs 
> Harbour in NE NSW. I think this is a real hot spot and would no doubt 
> receive more than the Border Ranges. Since having access to radar in this 
> area, without fail this elevated terrain (up to 1500 metres, but mostly 
> around 1000 metres) fires up every time, even in the most marginal setups.
> 
>  From Coffs Harbour at the coast, the terrain rises rapidly to Dorrigo, and 
> juts out surrounded by two coastal plains - the Clarence Valley to the 
> north and Bellingen to the south. It can therefore by a convergence zone 
> for any surface SE or NE winds, but activity generally forms along its 
> northeastern slopes heading down into the Clarence Valley.
> 

I wonder how much of this maximum has to do with the existence of
an observing site (Dorrigo) at a reasonably high elevation on the
windward side of the ranges? Over most of the area to the north and
south topographically comparable locations have little or no settlement.

Blair Trewin
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tornadoes/Thunderdays
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 10:47:05 +1000
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Hi Lyle,

I meant just thunderstorms, but I figure some correlation between number of
storms and likely severe events.  Although as has been pointed out tropical
zone events generally lack the shear and upper atmosphere conditions
required to produce tornadic supercells.  (I have seen a great shot of a
pair of thick waterspouts in the Gulf of Carpentaria, which goes to show
this perhaps is not always the case).

I believe that Australia's most thunderstorm prone region is Melville Island
north of Darwin, with up to 120 thunderdays per year (not 100% sure on the
figure, that's from memory), thanks to "Hector"

But parts of Uganda apparently achieve around 250!!!!  (OH MAN, BRING IT
ON...)

John.
>snip
Hi John,

curious to that stat - are we talking thunderstorms or tornado producing
thunderstorms?

Cheers, Lyle.

>snip
I just got some stats - here in Ft Collins, we get avg 60 Thunderstorm days
per year. Just south of here, along the front range it can get up to 80 per
year.  Oklahoma is about 40 but what you have to remember is that we have
the mountains to break the cap, so our storms are more numerous but much
less powerfull - if a storm is going to break in Oak - it's probbaly going
to be severe.

>snip
That puts Oklahoma on about a par with Brisbane in terms of thunderstorm
days (if its defined in terms of thunder being audible - which is
something I've always wondered about - who is doing the listening, are
they only listening at synoptic hours, what happens if the site is in a
noisy area - are biases introduced by this?). Also similar to over there,
the border ranges just to the south of Brisbane receives about 80 thunder
days.

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Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 12:28:16 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: THUNDERDAYS - was tornadoes
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
At 11:58 10/11/2000 +1100, you wrote:


>I wonder how much of this maximum has to do with the existence of
>an observing site (Dorrigo) at a reasonably high elevation on the
>windward side of the ranges? Over most of the area to the north and
>south topographically comparable locations have little or no settlement.
>
>Blair Trewin
>

I'm not using any synoptic site as the reason for this conclusion. I have 
no idea how many thunderdays Dorrigo reports. It's based on seeing the 
storms in that area (from my location 120ks N of it) and radar. I'd say the 
small settlements of Clouds Creek (what a name!) and Dundurrabin NW of 
Dorrigo receive more storms than Dorrigo itself, as the cells track (N or 
NE) off the higher parts. A storm spotter and pilot with 20 years local 
knowledge also considers this to be a high thunderday area in the district.

Obviously the synoptic reporting stations are far too sparse to get a true 
picture.

regards, Michael.

  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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</x-flowed>
From: "Damien Howes" <dhowes at flatrate.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE QLD piccies from last weekend
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 11:35:40 +1100
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Hi All,
   John wrote,
> Sunday:
> Shot of large storm over the Boonah area, storm is approx 80km SW from
> camera. Wall cloud and lowerings to the NW of precip area under new
updraft
> visible at top of photo.  If you look carefully, just to the right of the
> wall cloud you can just make out Cunninghams gap through the lighter
precip.
> Twin peaks of Mts. Mitchell & Cordeuex are around 1100m, the storm is a
> little in front that, so I guess the cloud base is about 1000m.  That puts
> the hard updrafts at the top of the picture at around 12,000m.
> http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100a.jpg

John, I was wondering if you roughly remember what time you took this ? I
was driving just south of Warril View on the Cunningham Hwy and to my SW was
a fairly nice wall cloud developing. I'd say it was about 10-15nm from me
which puts it just NE of Cunninghams Gap. This seems to agree with the
positioning in your photo. Anyhow I was on a section of road you couldn't
stop on, with a semi fair up my rear end, when my passenger noticed a funnel
under the wall cloud. It was white, very thin and extended about half way
from the base of the wall cloud to the terrain which consists of low
hills.It contrasted nicely with the dark terrain of the mountains in the
background north of the gap. By the time I could pull over and then fumble
with the camera and lenses the funnel had weakened and disappeared.  Much to
my utter utter utter dismay...All up it probably lasted 2-3 minutes. Also
the tower on the left of your photo gave 2cm hail. Nice photos,  Damien.
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>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 12:42:06 +1100 (AEDT)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tornadoes/Thunderdays
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi John,

Yes you are right about the thunderdays in Uganda - and its a a very good
example of an extreme local enhancement. Lake Victoria (and the lake
breezes it causes) plays a huge role in producing this maximum at Entebbe
on its northern shore. Another interesting fact is that most thunderstorms
are nocturnal in this area - the vast majority occur in the early hours of
the morning. The extreme local nature of this peak can be seen when it is
realised that several locations only a few tens of km away receive only
5-10 thunder days a year. Quite amazing.

Cheers,

Jonty.

____________________________________________________________________

Jonty Hall                   jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au

CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
Monash University
Wellington Road,
Clayton, Vic   3168

Ph +61 3 9905 9684

____________________________________________________________________

On Fri, 10 Nov 2000, John Woodbridge wrote:

> Hi Lyle,
> 
> I meant just thunderstorms, but I figure some correlation between number of
> storms and likely severe events.  Although as has been pointed out tropical
> zone events generally lack the shear and upper atmosphere conditions
> required to produce tornadic supercells.  (I have seen a great shot of a
> pair of thick waterspouts in the Gulf of Carpentaria, which goes to show
> this perhaps is not always the case).
> 
> I believe that Australia's most thunderstorm prone region is Melville Island
> north of Darwin, with up to 120 thunderdays per year (not 100% sure on the
> figure, that's from memory), thanks to "Hector"
> 
> But parts of Uganda apparently achieve around 250!!!!  (OH MAN, BRING IT
> ON...)
> 
> John.
> >snip
> Hi John,
> 
> curious to that stat - are we talking thunderstorms or tornado producing
> thunderstorms?
> 
> Cheers, Lyle.
> 
> >snip
> I just got some stats - here in Ft Collins, we get avg 60 Thunderstorm days
> per year. Just south of here, along the front range it can get up to 80 per
> year.  Oklahoma is about 40 but what you have to remember is that we have
> the mountains to break the cap, so our storms are more numerous but much
> less powerfull - if a storm is going to break in Oak - it's probbaly going
> to be severe.
> 
> >snip
> That puts Oklahoma on about a par with Brisbane in terms of thunderstorm
> days (if its defined in terms of thunder being audible - which is
> something I've always wondered about - who is doing the listening, are
> they only listening at synoptic hours, what happens if the site is in a
> noisy area - are biases introduced by this?). Also similar to over there,
> the border ranges just to the south of Brisbane receives about 80 thunder
> days.
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 

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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SE QLD piccies from last weekend
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 11:53:26 +1000
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Hi Damien,

I think this photo was around 3:30pm on Sunday.  I spent about half an hour
on top of Barnes Hill between 3:00pm and 4:00pm, before a few closer rumbles
scared me off.  One thing that struck me even from 80km was how dynamic the
wall cloud was, you could actually see it boiling and the lowerings moving
around.  Unfortunately the contrast on the one zoomed in shot I took is so
poor that it is hard to make out any detail at all - and it just didn't scan
well enough to put up.  Will show you the photo next we meet anyway.

Regards,
>snip

> http://pixelcom.net/jrw/stormpic/051100a.jpg

John, I was wondering if you roughly remember what time you took this ? I
was driving just south of Warril View on the Cunningham Hwy and to my SW was
a fairly nice wall cloud developing. I'd say it was about 10-15nm from me
which puts it just NE of Cunninghams Gap. This seems to agree with the
positioning in your photo. Anyhow I was on a section of road you couldn't
stop on, with a semi fair up my rear end, when my passenger noticed a funnel
under the wall cloud. It was white, very thin and extended about half way
from the base of the wall cloud to the terrain which consists of low
hills.It contrasted nicely with the dark terrain of the mountains in the
background north of the gap. By the time I could pull over and then fumble
with the camera and lenses the funnel had weakened and disappeared.  Much to
my utter utter utter dismay...All up it probably lasted 2-3 minutes. Also
the tower on the left of your photo gave 2cm hail. Nice photos,  Damien.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 21:18:03 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Thank you all for answering my question!  I very much appreciate it.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


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From: "bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 13:46:58 +1100
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A gallon is 4.54litres and at 101.9 cents a litre here works out to nearly
$4.63 per gallon. Lets all move :-)
Bussy
----- Original Message -----
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, November 10, 2000 10:47 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing


> I normally think in terms of mks units but I am uncertain how many Ls ther
> are in an English gallon.  But I just filled the tank for $1.26 per
gallon.
>  That is as inexpensive as I have seen fuel in many months.  How does this
> compare to what you mates pay?
>
> Les
>
> ************************
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
>
>
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X-Originating-IP: [203.54.87.70]
From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Adelaide action!
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 14:49:18 CST
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<x-flowed>
Some great action around the east and north of Adelaide but once again 
Adelaide looks as though it will miss out.  Although there is still a chance 
of a thunderstorm this afternoon or evening.  There is a lot of moisture 
around, my biggest concern is the sea breeze which is developing now it 
could dry things out a bit.  The moisture to the east and north is reacting 
very well with a middle level trough, therefore there is a strong possiblity 
for severe t'storms to the north and east of Adelaide as well as the south 
east.  One good thing for Adelaide is that a lot of heating is now occurring 
due to the break up of the cloud. If there was a sudden increase in moisture 
this afternoon or enough instability we would could get a t'storm but it 
doesn't look all that promising.  But you never know, anyway the activity 
over the rest of the state is good enough.
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</x-flowed>
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 14:58:07 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley at cobweb.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide action! - 'Illawarra' style BUST!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>    Watching it too here Phil.....I'd be iclined to go  after it mate :-)
>  PaulY
>

Okay - so I went after it!  Seemed to be propagating south so I figured I'd
intercept a possible guster at Mt Barker Summit - an excellent outlook BTW
- but I soon realised that this wasn't going to be when I ran into a bunch
of low level stratocu coming from the south east which was actually sitting
over the summit of the hill!  It was also only around 15degrees up there.
Amazing.

Not only did this block the view, but was doing a damn fine job of killing
any convection as well.  The sky was just a dark but claggy, rainy mess.
That cell must have collapsed very soon after dropping 30mm on Kersbrook in
30 minutes!  As I trundled home more convection could be seen over the
original Barossa site where there's obviously no low level cloud.

Oh well, can't win em all.  Still - I'll be working up that way on Monday.
Kinda feels right......

phil


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X-Originating-IP: [210.50.35.33]
From: "Ben Jerrems" <beanzvision at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Chase???
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 15:47:56 EST
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<x-flowed>
Hi again all,
            If anyone is going to be out taking photo's tonight, I'll be at 
Doncaster Shopping town (VIC)if anyone is interested!!! Got photo's back, 
will post them up soon so watch this space......

            Ben-MSC

P.S. I'll be in a white golf!!
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</x-flowed>
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 00:27:52 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Bussy wrote:

> A gallon is 4.54litres and at 101.9 cents a litre here works out to
nearly
> $4.63 per gallon. Lets all move :-)

Good idea.  As you know, the storms are great here and gas prices are low. 
In fact, you all would probably find the cost of living low in the plains
as well.

However, now would not be the time to move.  We had freezing rain and sleet
all day yesterday and last night we had about 3 cm of snow.  It never did
get above - 2 C yesterday and held steady during the night.   Today I know
it reached a high of  about - .8 C.  So, there will be no chasing
here....even though there were severe storms over the Ohio River Valley ~
1500 km to the east.

Enjoy your storms.  

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 15:22:24 +1000
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Ya canna be serious...
Brisbane average price is around 85c/litre.  Cheapest currently at 77c/litre

Regards,
John.
>snip

A gallon is 4.54litres and at 101.9 cents a litre here works out to nearly
$4.63 per gallon. Lets all move :-)
Bussy

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From: "Steve Summers" <S.Summers at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 15:09:35 +0800
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Jeez, 1.19c/l over here 400k north of Perth, I always thort we were
supporting the rest of the country!!


> Ya canna be serious...
> Brisbane average price is around 85c/litre.  Cheapest currently at
77c/litre
>
> Regards,
> John.
> >snip
>
> A gallon is 4.54litres and at 101.9 cents a litre here works out to nearly
> $4.63 per gallon. Lets all move :-)
> Bussy
>
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From: Blair Trewin <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: THUNDERDAYS - was tornadoes
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 18:33:16 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> At 11:58 10/11/2000 +1100, you wrote:
> 
> 
> >I wonder how much of this maximum has to do with the existence of
> >an observing site (Dorrigo) at a reasonably high elevation on the
> >windward side of the ranges? Over most of the area to the north and
> >south topographically comparable locations have little or no settlement.
> >
> >Blair Trewin
> >
> 
> I'm not using any synoptic site as the reason for this conclusion. I have 
> no idea how many thunderdays Dorrigo reports. It's based on seeing the 
> storms in that area (from my location 120ks N of it) and radar. I'd say the 
> small settlements of Clouds Creek (what a name!) and Dundurrabin NW of 
> Dorrigo receive more storms than Dorrigo itself, as the cells track (N or 
> NE) off the higher parts. A storm spotter and pilot with 20 years local 
> knowledge also considers this to be a high thunderday area in the district.

I was referring to the 'bulls-eye' on the thunder-days map, which 
would be based on synoptic reports, I expect.

It's certainly a favoured area for extreme high daily rainfalls.
Dorrigo itself has recorded 775mm in a day, and has a 1-year return
period daily rainfall of 144mm; Mt.Moombil, nearby, has one of
177. (By way of comparison, Cairns's is 158 and the wettest areas
of the North Queensland coast are in the low-to-mid 200s - 240 at
Babinda). 

I've no reason to doubt that it's a favoured area for thunderstorms;
what I'm wondering is if there are similarly favoured areas further
north or south with few or no observations.

Blair

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 18:42:54 +1100
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I am deadly serious! The country people copping it in the neck as usual.
Sorry, but its true. We have no public transport and so therefore need a
vehicle and we pay through the nose for it. I work in a place that also has
a servo. Fuel price hasn't been below a dollar for months. Hell! This is
off-topic by a long way. I'm outa here......
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, November 10, 2000 4:22 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing


> Ya canna be serious...
> Brisbane average price is around 85c/litre.  Cheapest currently at
77c/litre
>
> Regards,
> John.
> >snip
>
> A gallon is 4.54litres and at 101.9 cents a litre here works out to nearly
> $4.63 per gallon. Lets all move :-)
> Bussy
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado's
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 18:39:05 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> Hi Blair,
> 
> I would respectfully suggest that the same study conducted in the 90's might
> revise some of these figures upwards, as also has happened in the American
> midwest since the 50's & 60's,  which is just a function of increased
> population density and greater awareness/education re meteorological
> phenomena.

Greater awareness could be a factor (although this might be expected
to affect metropolitan reports, too). I'm working on the assumption
that population density in the metropolitan areas was already 
sufficiently high by 1960 that any daytime event there would have
been reported.

West of the Great Dividing Range, I would imagine that, if anything,
population density has declined since 1960, outside the major towns.
(The only figures I could get my hands on in a hurry suggested that
most NSW and Queensland local government areas west of the ranges,
except for big towns like Dubbo, lost population between the 1991 and
1996 censuses). Communications are much better now, of course.

Purely as a guess, I'd suggest that a similar study now would find:

- a similar or slightly increased observed incidence in the 
metropolitan areas
- a substantially increased observed incidence in rural areas, but
still far below that in geographically comparable urban areas
(perhaps 5-fold rather than 10-fold)

Blair
> I think it also might be reasonable to correlate likely tornado frequency
> with known thunderstorm frequency figures which varies quite markedly over
> the region discussed.
> 
> John.
> >snip
> 
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado's
> 
> A study based on sightings from the 1950's and 1960's showed that
> the grid squares centred on major cities (the study, if I recall
> correctly, counted observed tornadoes in each 1 x 1 degree grid square)
> had about 10 times the frequency of observed tornadoes of surrounding
> grid squares. This would suggest that, at the time, about 90% of
> tornadoes in rural areas went unreported (assuming that everything
> within the metropolitan areas did get reported).
> 
> That study found a frequency in the Sydney region which was on a
> par with the eastern coastal states of the U.S, and one-third to
> one-quarter of that in the Midwest. It would seem reasonable to
> assume that that frequency is broadly representative of much of
> eastern New South Wales and Queensland.
> 
> Blair Trewin
> 
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From: "dencot" <dencot at alphalink.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail-Post" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Last Night's Storm in Bayswater, Vic
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 19:23:34 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4207.2601" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Not a bad TS in North Bayswater early this morning 
(1 am - 3am &nbsp;10/11). Plenty of CC and a few CG's flashes were about 45 
seconds apart on average.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp; Den</FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 19:33:21 +1100
From: tornado <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: I'm Back !
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Everyone

Just thought I would let everyone know that I am now back online after
getting a new computer (urg) I just got some photo's back but I cannot
scan them because I can't find my scanner software at the moment to
install the scanner... (urg again)
Thanks for all the comments about the images of the Tornado, wish you
were all there to see it !
No M30 did not have debri in it, they were rain drops on the windscreen.
The BoM had 3 damage tracks from this supercell, and rotation was
evident in the cell a long time before the tornadoes touched down.
Dann could you email me that email address please :)
Anthony/Ben/Jimmy fantastic photos guys, we sure are getting the rewards
that come with chasing this season !
Hope to see a few of you at the meeting tomorrow night, and only 6 days
until a bunch of us go chasing for a few week's... our combined
forecasting and chasing skills should get us a few good storms, here's
hoping anyway  :)

Matt Smith



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: THUNDERDAYS - was tornadoes
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 20:21:14 +1100
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I think a thunderday map of Australia is long overdue an overhaul.

There are a number of obvious mis-alignments such as the NW slopes of NSW
not being particularly more thundery than further south, we all know the
opposite. Other grey areas are the low thunder days of the coast around
Yamba to south of Ballina, I realise that these areas are on relatively wide
coastal plains, thus not getting much dregs drifting off the ranges, but I
bet the frequency is not as low as stated.

Another area that has me thinking is the far SE tip of Australia, inland
from Eden around Bombala, another area where winds from two very different
ocean bodies may converge over relatively high ground. Indeed the lightning
tracker over the past two nights has seen small isolated storms there, and
as I said in an earlier message I often notice a small pocket of relatively
high CAPE and LI in that area.

MIchael


>
>
> If anyone is putting some sort of thunderday map together of Australia
(BoM
> has one for 1950-1959), then take a look at the Plateau west of Coffs
> Harbour in NE NSW. I think this is a real hot spot and would no doubt
> receive more than the Border Ranges. Since having access to radar in this
> area, without fail this elevated terrain (up to 1500 metres, but mostly
> around 1000 metres) fires up every time, even in the most marginal setups.
>
>  From Coffs Harbour at the coast, the terrain rises rapidly to Dorrigo,
and
> juts out surrounded by two coastal plains - the Clarence Valley to the
> north and Bellingen to the south. It can therefore by a convergence zone
> for any surface SE or NE winds, but activity generally forms along its
> northeastern slopes heading down into the Clarence Valley.
>
> Please also note the spelling of TORNADOES weather people  !!!!!!!
>
> regards, Michael
>
>
>
>
> At 09:34 10/11/2000 +1100, you wrote:
> >Hi Lyle,
> >
> >That puts Oklahoma on about a par with Brisbane in terms of thunderstorm
> >days (if its defined in terms of thunder being audible - which is
> >something I've always wondered about - who is doing the listening, are
> >they only listening at synoptic hours, what happens if the site is in a
> >noisy area - are biases introduced by this?). Also similar to over there,
> >the border ranges just to the south of Brisbane receives about 80 thunder
> >days.
> >
> >Of course, this says absolutely nothing about the severity of the storms,
> >and so should probably be in a different thread!!
> >
> >
> >Cheers,
> >
> >Jonty.
> >____________________________________________________________________
> >
> >Jonty Hall                   jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au
> >
> >CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
> >Monash University
> >Wellington Road,
> >Clayton, Vic   3168
> >
> >Ph +61 3 9905 9684
> >
> >__
>
>   =============================================================
>   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
>   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
>   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>   =============================================================
>
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X-Originating-IP: [203.171.105.245]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Wycheproof wx...
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 20:44:03 EST
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<x-flowed>
Hi every1,

Wall-to-wall thunderstorms to my west around to my north!!! Constant distant 
lightning moving slowly my way. Temperature currently about 18 C with fresh 
SE'ly winds. Lightning showing nice shelf-clouds.

Looking forward to an interesting evening.

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof. (8.40 p.m. local)
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</x-flowed>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 20:50:39 +1100
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I agree, but when it comes time to buy a home you will realise that your
country prices are not even on the same planet as city houses. For example
when chasing last year I looked at prices in some of the storm hotspots.
Glen Innes and Stanthorpe for example all had houses, abeit old ones for
well under $100,000, some as low as $60,000 - $70,000. The average block of
land in Shellharbour my home town is now over $100,000 let alone a house. In
Sydney start at $200,000 for the west, but anything within 10kms of the
coast is over $300,000.

I own a diesel 4WD and cannot get diesel for under $1 a litre anyway
now..boo.hoo.

Michael


----- Original Message -----
From: "bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, 10 November 2000 18:42
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing


> I am deadly serious! The country people copping it in the neck as usual.
> Sorry, but its true. We have no public transport and so therefore need a
> vehicle and we pay through the nose for it. I work in a place that also
has
> a servo. Fuel price hasn't been below a dollar for months. Hell! This is
> off-topic by a long way. I'm outa here......
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, November 10, 2000 4:22 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
>
>
> > Ya canna be serious...
> > Brisbane average price is around 85c/litre.  Cheapest currently at
> 77c/litre
> >
> > Regards,
> > John.
> > >snip
> >
> > A gallon is 4.54litres and at 101.9 cents a litre here works out to
nearly
> > $4.63 per gallon. Lets all move :-)
> > Bussy
> >
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> >
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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radio wx forecasts
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 20:40:37 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.600" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I think your points are very valid Matt. Here in Wollongong 
one weekend radio announcer has to be the worst I have ever experienced, 
sometime I think he is reading a random forecast as a joke. He regularly turns a 
three day forecast of isolated showers, early showers, early shower then fine, 
into rain, rain, rain or wet, wet, wet. He invents thunderstorms, this is true, 
a few weeks ago the forecast for the Illawarra read some late showers with SE 
winds, but the south coast forecast had the chance of an early thunderstorm in 
the south ( we are talking Victorian border ) his interpretation was something 
like batten down the hatches, storms tonight.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Michael</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=rpearce2 at bigpond.net.au 
  href="mailto:rpearce2 at bigpond.net.au">Pearce</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, 10 November 2000 8:42</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Radio wx forecasts</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Equivalent to the "mini-tornado" saga, I find the 
  most infuriating thing by far on radio wx forecasts is the fact they 
  completely alter what the BoM says or make it up altogether. Now, this may not 
  necessarilly be a bad thing, but I would suggest it is only done by someone 
  with a bit of met knowledge. So this brings me to this morning:</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>2DAYFM in Sydney(one of the most notorious for 
  this activity) has been saying all morning:"Partly cloudy with a few showers 
  around". On the surface, this may not appear too different from the BoM's 
  "Chance of an early coastal shower then fine", but when you consider that the 
  first implies showers possible in Penrith in the afternoon, and the second has 
  no mention of the latter there is a bit of a difference. Anyway, after many 
  days of this I gave up and rang 2dayfm, going through various people who 
  didn't care until I finally got onto the newsreader for MMM(a rival 
  station!!!...apparently they work for the same company...). They actually 
  report wx properly from my experience(one of the few commercial ones that do), 
  and sure enough the newsreader agreed with me. </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Basically, the main problem I have is that 
  firstly, if there are warnings issued, they invariably don't read them out or 
  read them wrong. Secondly, people get their wx info from the radio and if this 
  is wrong, they then blame the BoM or meteorologists in general, despite the 
  fact the forecast was made up by a newsreader sitting in Bondi looking out the 
  window. It generally lowers the credibility of meteorologists.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Maybe I am just raving, but my number one goal is 
  to get ACCURATE wx info to the public by whatever means, to raise the 
  perceived standards of forecasting in Australia.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Incidentally, as I have been writing this, 2DAYFM 
  has just announced "Cloudy with a few coastal showers today"...sigh...better 
  than before I suppose...and the newsreader is making all sorts of snide 
  comments about "well it bloody better become fine" blah blah 
  blah...</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Enough of my paranoias and rantings</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Matt Pearce</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon)
Date: 10 Nov 00 20:41:14 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Hello Leslie!

09 Nov 00 18:47, you wrote to INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com:

 LL> I normally think in terms of mks units but I am uncertain how many Ls
 LL> ther are in an English gallon.  But I just filled the tank for $1.26
 LL> per gallon. That is as inexpensive as I have seen fuel in many months.
 LL> How does this compare to what you mates pay?

English gallon = 4.5l (approx).  That  fuel sounds very cheap by our standards.
:-)

Tony, VK3JED

.. New Opcode #8: IPX - Increase Power and eXplode
--
|Fidonet:  Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
|
| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.


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Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 21:27:31 +1100
From: Andrew Puddifer <typhoon at ihug.com.au>
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 Yes...I was amazed when I was staying in Coff's.....they had this awesome
storm...the likes I don't remember ever being in, and they were nonchalant
about it! They say they get decent storms so often, that it just doesn't faze
them!
 The Clarence valley is also known for it's nasty storms, I think it's like you
say, the warm moist seabreeze gets funnelled up, but also picks up even more
moisture travelling up that huge river. Once a storm starts, it has plenty of
food! There is a lot of shallow water around that river which must be
evaporating away in the sun. Also, lots of flood plain heating up and further
helping the process....I think the Bellingen river valley to the south of Coffs
is much the same, but on a smaller scale. Definitely a unique piece of terrain
up there.....guess that's why I am moving there!

 Regards, Andrew.


Michael Bath wrote:

> If anyone is putting some sort of thunderday map together of Australia (BoM
> has one for 1950-1959), then take a look at the Plateau west of Coffs
> Harbour in NE NSW. I think this is a real hot spot and would no doubt
> receive more than the Border Ranges. Since having access to radar in this
> area, without fail this elevated terrain (up to 1500 metres) fires up every
> time, even in the most marginal setups.
>
>  From Coffs Harbour at the coast, the terrain rises rapidly to Dorrigo, and
> juts out surrounded by two coastal plains - the Clarence Valley to the
> north and Bellinen to the south. It can therefore by a convergence zone for
> any SE or NE winds
>
> At 09:34 10/11/2000 +1100, you wrote:
> >Hi Lyle,
> >
> >That puts Oklahoma on about a par with Brisbane in terms of thunderstorm
> >days (if its defined in terms of thunder being audible - which is
> >something I've always wondered about - who is doing the listening, are
> >they only listening at synoptic hours, what happens if the site is in a
> >noisy area - are biases introduced by this?). Also similar to over there,
> >the border ranges just to the south of Brisbane receives about 80 thunder
> >days.
> >
> >Of course, this says absolutely nothing about the severity of the storms,
> >and so should probably be in a different thread!!
> >
> >
> >Cheers,
> >
> >Jonty.
> >____________________________________________________________________
> >
> >Jonty Hall                   jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au
> >
> >CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
> >Monash University
> >Wellington Road,
> >Clayton, Vic   3168
> >
> >Ph +61 3 9905 9684
> >
> >__
>
>   =============================================================
>   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
>   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
>   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>   =============================================================
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------



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Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 21:36:30 +1100
From: Andrew Puddifer <typhoon at ihug.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing
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 I wish I could pay that for fuel! One reason I don't chase too much is that I
have to feed a 318 V8 Chrysler, and at around $1 a litre for the "good"fuel, it
get's expensive! That's about $3.50 or so a gallon in Au$.
 But I do have an 85 litre tank, so I can go 6 hours on a tank with reserves at
highway speeds.
 Tips for good highway mileage:
 Always have a clean air filter
 Keep the tyre pressures up(typically, about 4psi higher than the car
manufacturer recommends, or the maximum on the tyre sidewall)
 Lower the front of your car about an inch(really helps reduce drag from under
the car)
 Use decent fuel! My sister's Charade gets better mileage and has more power on
premium fuel...it more than offsets the extra cost..don't believe it, try
it!(only works on computer controlled engines)

Leslie R. Lemon wrote:

> I normally think in terms of mks units but I am uncertain how many Ls ther
> are in an English gallon.  But I just filled the tank for $1.26 per gallon.
>  That is as inexpensive as I have seen fuel in many months.  How does this
> compare to what you mates pay?
>
> Les
>
> ************************
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
>
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From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Severe storm near Richmond this morning
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 20:42:57 +1000
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Hi Everyone,

A friend of my dads, who lives around 80k's or so north of Richmond,
reported a 'very severe' storm early/mid this morning.  She described the
damage, which included "trees blown apart by lightning", "trees and sheds
blown down by increbible winds" and also described the storm on approach as
"incredible".

She offered to take damage pics, and hopefully i'll get them in a week or
two.

For those who don't know where Richmond is, the BOM have it marked on the
district boundaries map (NNW of Longreach):

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/dist_map.shtml

Some huge storms up that way on the sat pics early this morning

Some whopping falls to 9am this morning in QLD, with some of the highest
being Cape Tribulation 175mm, Mt Sophia 138, Cooktown 136, Babinda 132 and
Low Isles with 116mm (if i'm reading the synoptic reports correctly, 100mm
of that fell in the 6 hours between 6pm and midnight yesterday)

ahhhhhh I LOVE SUMMER!!!!!!


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 21:59:45 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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Subject: aus-wx: Photos: Victoria
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Evening all,

I was fortunate enough to be able to chase this afternoon in an area
bounded by Melbourne to the east & Ballarat to the west.  Played leap
frog with this 'prefrontal trough trough' 3 times and noted different
characteristics each time. Got up close & personal with some amazing
cloud formations!!!!!  Did a bit of 'surfing' which I've captured on
video - all wheels in water over the road & I was actually driving
through my own bow wave!!  Loved the wall of water coming at me when
someone went the other way!

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/10_11_00.htm

Enjoy!!!!  It's certainly the best chase I've ever had..and I haven't
checked the 1.25 hours of video or the 24 pics in the SLR yet.

Funny bits for the afternoon:-
1. The video camera is securely anchored to the front passengers seat &
doesn't move....a cop went flying past me on my way out of town, hit the
brakes about 10 seconds later till he was back level with me, looked
across at the video camera, looked at me, scratched his head ...and
pissed off <g>

2. Pulled off the road at one stage to get a closer look at an area of
rotation that was trying to get itself organised & nearly ran over a
turtle / tortoise - so I had to video that too, but you'll be pleased to
know that I didn't video the blackbird nesting outside my front door, or
the dead magpie west of Bacchus Marsh......enough - I'll go and do video
transfers.

Macca & Chris have already headed way NW to get an early start on
tomorrow (or possibly tonight).

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 23:24:33 +1100
From: Andrew Puddifer <typhoon at ihug.com.au>
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  Hi all,

 Could someone please send me the details of the meeting tomorrow
night? I might be able to attend after all, and I want to show my
cool photos from the North coast!

 Regards, Andrew.

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