From: "dencot" To: "Jane ONeill" Cc: "Aussie Weather Mail-Post" Subject: aus-wx: your pics 10-11-00 Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 00:21:40 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Jane
 
 Loved your pics
How do you do it so fast with so much good stuff ?
Keep it coming , your an insperation to us new guys !
 
Den
 X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 00:35:13 +1100 (EDT) From: Robert Goler X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au To: Aussie-wx Subject: aus-wx: My Chase Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all Well I've just come back from my 850km chase, where I headed to Ballarat, but continued out to Mortlake and Hamilton and the surrounds (another nominee for mouse chase, Clyve?!). Saw similar stuff that Jane posted, but with more intense updrafts, and there was more clear sky around so you could see the tops. On two occasions I saw something which resembled the photo that Jane posted as a Christmas card last year, ie her image http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Images/yea270199.jpg but without the huge cirrus top as this was blocked by middle level cloud, and the updrafts were a bright white since it was mid afternoon. The first time was completely by accident, as I reached a point where the northwestern sky was completely devoid of clouds. I turned around to head back from whence I came and whoa! (actually, a few expletives were thrown in) Also, on both occasions, I was more side on, and so it didn't appear as 'flayed' out as in this shot. There was also an interesting broad lowering under one of the building updrafts (wall cloud??). I passed through some heavy rain (no hail though), saw the Grampians for the first time, was surprised at how big a city Ballarat is, and managed to shoot about 4 rolls of film. Currently I'm looking at what tomorrow is offering, and am willing to do the same that I did today. Although, it was a bit hairy coming back as I was very low on fuel and it was touch and go as to whether I could make it back to Ballarat, as all the service stations in the small towns were shut up already. Fortunately, I did manage to find a station open which was a huge relief. Other peoples tips as to what will be the hot spots for tomorrow are definitely welcome. Cheers -- Robert A. Goler E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ Department of Mathematics and Statistics Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "dencot" To: "Aussie Weather Mail-Post" Subject: aus-wx: chase Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 02:46:53 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Robert
Great report on your latest chase. I wish I had a bit more time to spend on doing the same thing but retail hours and trying to fit all the interests of three kids (the oldest is 10 and into weather ) makes it a bit hard. Maybe able to run into you one day like up at Mt. Dandy. when I first noticed you looking up instead out like the visiters up there. If you ever want to give me a ring my home ph. no. 97203738 or mob. 0407821977 . I now get every second Monday off work so if you want someone to share fuel costs give me a yell and I'll be please to tag along and learn a bit more.
 
Regards
 
Dennis
 X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 09:00:00 +0930 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Phil Bagust Subject: RE: aus-wx: The next week Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all For those in the Adelaide/Melbourne corridor the next week [after we get rid of this murky stratocu] looks supurb! Here in Adelaide we have a forecast of possible t-storms on every day from Monday to Thursday as that trough wangles its way back west. I'd say if people are gonna chase at any time this will be it. Good luck, good hunting and may the storm force be with you........... Phil +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 02:47:42 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: SUMMARY: August TC Summary - Part 2 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY AUGUST, 2000 (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see the Author's Note at the end of this summary.) NOTE: The August summary is being disseminated in three parts. But instead of breaking the summary up by basins, I am going to attempt to cover storms in all the basins forming in 10-day periods. Part 2 will cover tropical cyclones forming in the period 11-20 August. The entire history of these systems will be covered in this installment. *********************************************************************** AUGUST HIGHLIGHTS --> Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins very active --> Destructive super typhoon strikes Taiwan and Chinese mainland --> Central North Pacific area remains active --> Long-lived Atlantic hurricane sets several records *********************************************************************** ***** Topic of the Month for August ***** NOTE!!! This feature will appear in Part 3 of the August summary. *********************************************************************** ACTIVITY BY BASINS ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Activity for August: 1 tropical depression 1 possible tropical depression or storm ** 1 subtropical storm 2 tropical storms 2 hurricanes ** - no warnings were issued on this system by TPC/NHC NOTE: Much of the information presented below was obtained from the TPC/NHC discussion bulletins issued with every regular advisory. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-min averaging period unless otherwise noted. Atlantic Tropical Activity for August ------------------------------------- Following two tropical depressions in the month of June, the Atlantic basin was very quiet through the month of July as unfavorable upper-level westerlies spread over much of the basin at lower latitudes. However, the situation changed very quickly in August as the long-lived Hurricane Alberto formed early in the month and lasted almost three weeks. Alberto became the first hurricane and the first major hurricane (Category 3 on the Saffir/Simpson scale) of the season as winds climbed to 110 kts. Three more storms were named during the month, but only one--Debby--reached minimal hurricane intensity. In addition, advisories were issued on a tropical depression (TD-04) off the east coast of Florida. Another system attended by deep convection moved northeastward off the mid-Atlantic coast on 10-13 Aug. A reconnaissance aircraft had flown into the system on the afternoon of the 10th but found no closed low-level circulation. But as the LOW moved northeastward on 11 Aug it did appear to have a circulation. SAB assigned T-numbers of 2.0 during the morning of 12 Aug and a ship reported 35-kt winds around 1200 UTC. For these reasons I am including a report on this system, which I have dubbed "Lambda", in this summary. Finally, a LOW with some distinctive subtropical characteristics developed in the western Atlantic just off the southeast U. S. coast in late August and moved inland along the North Carolina coast on the 30th. David Roth of HPC has supplied me with a track for this system, and it appears to have briefly reached subtropical storm intensity on 30 Aug. The first installment of the August summary, posted on 16 Oct, included reports on Hurricane Alberto, Tropical Depression #4, and the possible tropical cyclone "Lambda". This installment covers Tropical Storms Beryl and Chris and Hurricane Debby. Tropical Storm Beryl (TC-05) 13 - 15 August ----------------------------- As stated in the discussion of the possible tropical cyclone which raced northeastward off the U. S. East Coast on 10-12 Aug ("Lambda"), for the pre-warning history of most Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones I rely on a running tabular log of all tropical waves and LOWs compiled and maintained by John Wallace (as well as on information gleaned from the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks and Discussions issued by TPC/NHC). The first entry in the Tropical Wave file for the progenitor of Beryl depicts a wave stretching across the western Caribbean around 85W on 9 Aug. However, based on a comment in some e-mail from Todd Kimberlain, it appears that this wave was the southern portion of the same wave which had spawned "Lambda" along its northern extremity. This wave had left the coast of Africa on 2 Aug and had tracked steadily across the Atlantic. (This was also the same tropical wave responsible for the development of Tropical Storm Ileana in the Eastern Pacific.) By the early morning of 10 Aug a large area of convection had formed in association with the wave over the northwestern Caribbean. The disturbed weather spent the next couple of days crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of Central America, but by 12 Aug had emerged into the Bay of Campeche and a 1011-mb LOW had formed by 1800 UTC. A reconnaissance flight by the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserves investigated the area on the afternoon of 13 Aug and found that the LOW had acquired sufficient organization to be upgraded to a tropical depression. There was no well-defined LLCC at this point, but the plane did find FLW of 34 kts with estimated surface winds of 30 kts, so based upon these findings and the large- scale circulation evident in satellite imagery, advisories were initiated on TD-05 at 2100 UTC. The poorly-defined center of the depression was stationary about 250 nm east of Tampico, Mexico, or about 300 nm southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Beginning during the early morning hours of 14 Aug there was an enormous burst of convection which proved to be sufficient to spin the depression up to tropical storm strength. A reconnaissance flight around 1400 UTC found FLW of 53 kts in the southeast quadrant; also, the plane found that the center of circulation had reformed to the west of the previous track. The depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl at 1500 UTC with the center located about 200 nm southeast of Brownsville or 150 nm east-northeast of Tampico. The discussion bulletin noted that the system had passed over an area of unusually high heat content during the morning which may have been instrumental in the sudden strengthening of the depression. The storm was still very poorly-organized, however, and a reconnaissance crew during the afternoon had difficulty in obtaining a center fix. The position of the center indicated that Beryl was moving west-northwest at around 7 kts, which meant that landfall would likely occur too soon for the storm to reach hurricane intensity. The peak FLW winds found by the aircraft were still 53 kts so the intensity was held at 45 kts, which turned out to be the peak MSW for Beryl. Beryl's circulation remained broad and poorly-organized as it continued toward the northeast Mexican coast. Several small convective bursts were noted firing on the west side of the circulation which resulted in the spin-up of several small vortices. The center of Tropical Storm Beryl reached the coast of Mexico around 0600 UTC on 15 Aug at a point almost exactly halfway between Brownsville and Tampico--about 100 nm from each city. A reconnaissance aircraft found 55-kt winds at 850 mb to the north of Beryl's center, and a ship near Tampico reported winds of 35 kts for a few hours, so the MSW was decreased to 40 kts for the 0900 UTC advisory. The storm was down- graded to a tropical depression at 1500 UTC, and the final advisory was issued at 2100 UTC. Beryl's circulation was by then beginning to dissipate in the mountains of northeastern Mexico about 300 km north- west of La Pesca. John Wallace has sent me some observations from various locations around the western Gulf of Mexico. A CMAN near Port Aransas reported a peak 2-min avg southeast wind of 24 kts at 15/1000 UTC, the highest gust being 27 kts. Buoy 42020 (26.9N, 96.7W) reported a southwest wind of 21.3 kts (8-min avg) at 15/1400 UTC with a peak gust of 27.1 kts. The maximum wave height reported was 3.3 m at 1100 UTC. Another buoy (42002), located at 25.9N, 93.6W, recorded a maximum 8-min avg southeast wind of 25.2 kts at 0900 and 1200 UTC on 14 Aug with the peak reported gust of 31 kts occurring at 14/1200 UTC. The lowest pressure in the area was generally around 1010 mb, reported at several locales. Rainfall was rather light, at least in southern Texas. Brownsville and Corpus Christi measured 1.37 cm and 2.01 cm, respectively, in the 48-hour period from 14/1200 to 16/1200 UTC. Peak winds at these stations were in the 20-25 kt range. Rainfall may have been heavier in northeastern Mexico, but the author has not received any reports of significant damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical Storm Chris (TC-06) 17 - 19 August ----------------------------- The first mention of the tropical wave which spawned Chris was in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 2230 UTC on 14 Aug. A large tropical wave was located midway between the African coast and the Lesser Antilles. By the afternoon of the 15th the wave was located roughly 1100 nm east of the Lesser Antilles. Thunderstorm activity had increased but was not concentrated. Temperature and moisture genesis parameters provided by NOAA/NESDIS were favorable for some development over the succeeding days. The tropical wave slowly gained in organization during the next couple of days as it moved westward. A 1010-mb LOW formed on the wave axis on the 17th, and although associated convection was somewhat meager, a closed surface circulation was apparent and advisories were begun on TD-06 at 2100 UTC. The depression was located approximately 475 nm east of Martinique and was moving west-northwestward at 10 kts. By early morning of 18 Aug a persistent cluster of convection had formed near or to the north of the presumed location of the center. Convection was beginning to wrap around the LLCC by 1200 UTC and the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and KGWC at that hour were all 35 kts; therefore, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Chris at 1500 UTC, located about 375 nm east of Guadeloupe. However, even as Chris was named cloud tops were warming and the system was showing signs of weakening. A reconnaissance flight into the storm during the afternoon of the 18th was able to find a low-level center only with great difficulty. The maximum FLW encountered was 23 kts in the north quadrant and the minimum CP measured by dropsonde was 1011 mb. Satellite imagery indicated a better developed mid-level circulation to the east of the broad LLCC. Deep convection declined sharply, possibly due to some dry air entrainment into the storm. Chris was maintained as a tropical storm--barely--on the 2100 UTC advisory but was downgraded to a depression at 19/0300 UTC. Some convection persisted into the 19th north and northeast of the center, but an upper-level trough to the west of the depression continued to induce southwesterly shearing over the system. Even though the advisory package issued at 0900 UTC forecast that Chris would regain tropical storm intensity, a reconnaissance flight during the morning was unable to find a well-defined closed circulation, so apparently the system had degenerated into an open wave about 325 nm east of San Juan. The weak remnant LOW continued moving to the west-northwest and was absorbed into a frontal boundary on 22 Aug. It is perhaps open to question as to whether Chris ever really was a tropical storm. However, three satellite intensity estimates of 35 kts argues in favor of the system having been at tropical storm strength early on 18 Aug. Many tropical depressions have been upgraded to tropical storms on the basis of only two or sometimes even only one Dvorak rating of T2.5. Eric Blake, who was employed at NHC at the time, has informed me that Chris will likely be considered a tropical storm for a six hour period. Hurricane Debby (TC-07) 19 - 24 August ------------------------ A tropical wave emerged from the west coast of Africa on 15 Aug and continued moving westward across the tropical Atlantic. A 1010-mb LOW had formed by the 16th but the disturbance at that time showed no imminent signs of developing. Early on 17 Aug a TWO issued by TPC/NHC indicated that the system, located a few hundred miles west- southwest of the Cape Verdes, was beginning to exhibit increased organization and had the potential to develop into a depression over the next couple of days. The tropical wave and associated LOW continued to track westward with little change through the 17th and 18th, but during the night of 18 Aug convection increased somewhat and this trend continued through 19 Aug. By afternoon the system had developed enough circulation and organized convection for advisories to be initiated on TD-07, located about 875 nm east of the island of Barbados and estimated to be moving westward at 15 kts. As the 20th progressed banding features began to develop around the depression's center, and with good upper-level outflow, low vertical shear, and progressively warmer waters, the system continued to slowly strengthen and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby at 20/1500 UTC. Debby was centered roughly 700 nm east of Martinique and the MSW was estimated at 40 kts. During the afternoon Debby's convective banding became better organized, but the intensity was held at 40 kts due to a lack of vertical alignment between the low- and mid-level circulation centers. A 20/1506 UTC TRMM overpass showed a tight mid-level circulation or even eye-like feature in the 85 GHz (ice) data, but the 37 GHz data and visible imagery suggested that the LLCC was located about 25 nm to the southwest of the mid-level center. This lack of alignment in the vertical persisted over the next few days and helped to prevent Debby from intensifying as rapidly as most of the model guidance suggested. During the night of 20-21 Aug a large, symmetric, cold CDO feature developed, but due to uncertainty in the location of the center, the intensity was held at 45 kts. The storm also encountered some light southwesterly shear which inhibited the intensification process somewhat. A reconnaissance aircraft investigated Debby during the morning of the 21st and had a difficult time closing off a well-defined low-level center; nonetheless, the plane found winds of 88 kts at an altitude of 300 m in some convection north of the center. Based on this and some other wind reports exceeding 80 kts, the MSW was increased to 60 kts in the 1500 UTC advisory. The storm was moving just north of due west at a fairly fast clip of 19 kts. This rather rapid translational speed was the primary factor causing the shear, resulting in the low-level circulation moving faster than the mid- and upper-level circulations. Convective bursts were breaking out in the northeast quadrant, and with each new burst, the LLCC would redevelop near the burst and then move out to the west. A reconnaissance flight during the evening of 21 Aug reported that the central pressure had fallen 8 mb to 996 mb in a couple of hours. Also, the Guadeloupe radar showed a partial eyewall, thereby giving an indication that Debby might become a hurricane. The tropical storm was upgraded to a hurricane around 0600 UTC on 22 Aug with the center located near the island of Barbuda. The discussion bulletin noted that the earlier sharp drop in pressure was likely caused by a supercell-type thunderstorm which had developed near the center. This feature soon dissipated and the Guadeloupe radar began to show the formation of a classic banding pattern. An eye-like feature had been spinning up and spinning down in about three-hourly increments over the past 24 hours, and Debby appeared to be developing an eye again during the morning of the 22nd. The hurricane passed over or very near Anguilla and was located just west of the island at 1200 UTC. Wind gusts to 66 kts and 52 kts were reported on St. Barthelemy and St. Martin, respectively, during the early morning hours of 22 Aug. A ragged 25-nm diameter eye was noted by the San Juan radar during the afternoon, and several convective bursts helped to spin up small eyewall mesovortices which tended to distort the overall shape of the eye. Debby's center passed about 35 nm north of San Juan around 2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at about 18 kts. After passing to the north of Puerto Rico, Debby's track began to curve more to the west due to a 500-mb ridge to the north of the hurricane. During an early morning flight into the storm a Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a minimum pressure of 995 mb and FLW of 74 kts northeast of the center, so Debby remained a hurricane for the 23/0900 UTC advisory. The San Juan WSR-88D radar indicated that a series of eyewall mesovortices had formed and then dissipated during the night and that the eyewall convection had had trouble wrapping more than halfway around the center. Dropsonde data indicated a 10-20 kt southerly flow at 200- 300 mb undercutting the outflow of Debby, and a reconnaissance flight during the morning of the 23rd found a tight mid-level circulation with most of the convection displaced to the northeast. Based on several GPS dropsondes indicating 55-60 kt winds north of the center, the MSW was decreased to 60 kts at 1500 UTC and Debby was downgraded to a tropical storm with the center approximately 25 nm east-northeast of Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic. During the afternoon of 23 Aug the LLCC became separated from the mid-level circulation and went scooting westward along the northern coast of Hispaniola. Strong southwesterly shear and the high mountains of Hispaniola took their toll on the storm, and by 24/0000 UTC Debby was a weakening storm with 40-kt winds located over the northwest peninsula of Haiti. A reconnaissance flight during the early morning hours found a very poorly-defined 1011-mb center south of eastern Cuba with 35ene was the second tropical cyclone in less than a month to be named by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Prior to Upana in July, the last storm to have a Hawaiian name bestowed upon it was Paka in December, 1997. Very atypically for a Central Pacific tropical cyclone, Wene formed just west of the International Dateline and intensified just after entering the Central North Pacific moving northeastward. Wene's origin lay within an area of disturbed weather in the subtropics which had persisted for several days in mid-August west of the Dateline. An area of convection about 325 nm northwest of Midway Island began to develop rapidly on 15 Aug. The first warning on TD-16W was issued by JTWC at 0600 UTC. Animated satellite imagery depicted a well-defined LLCC with convection developing over the center. The depression was tracking slowly north-northeastward and was initially not forecast to intensify. By 1800 UTC the system's center was just east of the Dateline and the MSW was increased slightly to 30 kts. Satellite imagery depicted a partially-exposed LLCC with a band of convection extending from north to east of the center. However, an amended warning was released shortly thereafter upgrading the depression to a tropical storm about 345 nm north-northwest of Midway. Multi-spectral satellite imagery indicated that the system was more intense than previously thought with a CDO located directly over the LLCC. The CPHC assumed warning responsibility for the storm, issuing their first advisory at 16/0300 UTC and naming the system Tropical Storm Wene. Dvorak intensity estimates were 45 kts, so the MSW was increased to that value. At 0600 UTC Wene was located about 430 nm north of Midway Island and moving northeastward at 13 kts. Animated satellite imagery revealed persistent deep central convection with good organization. By 1200 UTC, however, Wene had begun to experience increased shearing due to an approaching trough in the westerlies and most of the convection lay in the northern half of the system. Dvorak estimates were ranging from 35 to 55 kts, but the MSW was decreased to 40 kts based on scatterometer data. As Wene continued moving to the north-northeast over the next 12 to 18 hours it maintained a well-defined circulation with some deep convection in spite of the shear and cooler waters. However, by 0600 UTC on 17 Aug the tropical storm was rapidly transitioning into a cold-cored extratropical LOW as it moved over even colder waters and began to be absorbed into an upper-level trough. Deep convection had disappeared and the wind field, as depicted by scatterometer data, was expanding outward. The final advisory on Wene placed the storm about 725 nm north of Midway or about 720 nm south-southeast of Adak, Alaska. *********************************************************************** NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Activity for August: 2 tropical depressions ** 3 tropical storms ++ 3 typhoons 1 super typhoon ** - one of these was a short-lived system carried only by JMA ++ - one of these was treated as a tropical depression by JTWC and JMA but Mark Lander felt that it reached tropical storm intensity NOTE: Most of the information on each cyclone's history presented in the narrative will be based upon JTWC's advisories, and references to winds should be understood as a 1-min avg MSW unless otherwise noted. However, in the accompanying tracking document I have made comparisons of coordinates with JMA (Japan) and the Philippines (PAGASA) when their positions differed from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. A special thanks to Michael V. Padua, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, for sending me the PAGASA and JMA tracks. In the title line for each storm I plan to reference all the cyclone names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator, and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their area of responsibility. Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for August ---------------------------------------------- August turned out to be a very active month in the Northwest Pacific basin. Six tropical storms were named by JMA with four of these reaching typhoon intensity. Bilis became an intense super typhoon and Jelawat nearly did do (according to Mark Lander it did briefly reach super typhoon intensity). All of the named cyclones eventually made landfall on the Asian continent except for Typhoon Ewiniar. JTWC issued warnings on two additional depressions (14W and 17W), and JMA issued two bulletins on another tropical depression. However, Mark Lander sent me alternate tracks for some of the systems, and his track for TD-14W assigns a peak MSW of 50 kts. Another depression, TD-16W, formed just west of the Dateline and moved into the Northeast Pacific basin where it developed into Tropical Storm Wene. Finally, Mark Lander sent a satellite picture on 30 Aug of a very tiny vortex in the subtropics accompanied by some deep convection. It isn't exactly clear just what the nature of this "micro-midget" system was. The first installment of the August summary, mailed out on 16 Oct, covered Typhoon Jelawat, Tropical Cyclone 14W, and Typhoon Ewiniar. This installment covers Super Typhoon Bilis and Tropical Storm Kaemi. In addition to the named cyclones Bilis and Kaemi, there were two weak tropical depressions in the NWP basin. JTWC issued six warnings on a system designated as TD-17W which formed on 17 Aug about 525 nm west-northwest of Midway Island in an area of disturbed weather in the subtropics which had persisted after Tropical Storm Wene had formed in the same general area a couple of days earlier. The depression moved erratically at first, then began to move off to the northeast. The last warning, issued at 19/0000 UTC, placed the center about 475 nm north-northwest of Midway. Maximum winds for the system were 25 kts. On 20 Aug JMA mentioned a tropical depression in a couple of their High Seas Warning and Summary bulletins. This system tracked eastward from a position about 225 nm south of Tokyo on 19 Aug. At 20/0000 UTC it was located about 350 nm southeast of Tokyo, and it was at this time that it was first referred to as a tropical depression. By 1200 UTC it was continuing to move rather quickly to the east and was described as a LOW. The final reference to the system was at 1800 UTC when it was located about 550 nm east-southeast of Tokyo. At my request Mark Lander reviewed some imagery of this system and concurred that it was classifiable as a 30-kt tropical depression. Given the latitude of formation and the fact that JTWC never mentioned the system in their STWOs, it seems likely that the LOW was perhaps more of a hybrid system than purely tropical. Super Typhoon Bilis (TC-18W / TY 0010 / Isang) 18 - 24 August ----------------------------------------------- Bilis: submitted by the Philippines, means speed or fleetness Bilis was the second typhoon of the year to reach the super typhoon threshold of 130 kts--the first being Super Typhoon Damrey in May. The storm began deep in the tropics well east of the Philippines, and after moving northward for a couple of days, took off on a remarkably straight course to the northwest which it followed until its final landfall in China. The first mention of the pre-Bilis disturbance was in a STWO issued by JTWC at 15/1700 UTC. An area of convection had developed about 500 nm south-southeast of Guam. Scatterometer data indicated a broad LLCC within a region of troughing and low vertical wind shear. Convection increased and the disturbance was given a development potential of Fair at 0000 UTC on 16 Aug. The area moved westward on the 16th and 17th and while convection was still fairly disorganized, animated satellite imagery showed good cross-equatorial flow into the monsoon trough. A Formation Alert was issued early on 18 Aug, and the first warning on TD-18W was issued at 0600 UTC placing the center approximately 75 nm west-northwest of Yap or about 500 nm southwest of Guam. Convection was beginning to organize rapidly around the circulation and the system was in a region of weak vertical shear. The depression initially moved northward, gradually turning to the north-northwest. Rapid intensification ensued and at 19/0000 UTC the system was abruptly upgraded from a 30-kt depression to a 55-kt tropical storm based upon satellite intensity estimates. TS-18W was then centered about 260 nm north-northwest of Yap or about 700 nm east of Catanduanes Island in the Philippines. (JMA upgraded the system and assigned the name Bilis at 0600 UTC.) By 0600 UTC Bilis was tracking to the north- west, guided by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. Based upon satellite intensity estimates, JTWC upgraded Bilis to a typhoon at 19/1200 UTC when it was centered roughly 550 nm east-northeast of Catanduanes Island. Animated water vapor imagery depicted good outflow aloft in all quadrants and shear was low as the young typhoon tracked northwestward at 14 kts. The MSW was increased to 75 kts at 20/0000 UTC and a banding eye had become visible by 0600 UTC. Typical of most NWP tropical cyclones originating in the monsoon trough deep in the tropics, Bilis was a fairly large storm in areal extent--gales covered a zone almost 250 nm in diameter. A 30-nm irregular eye was visible by 1200 UTC and the MSW was increased to 90 kts. (JMA at this point upgraded Bilis to a typhoon with 70-kt maximum 10-min avg winds.) Located in a very favorable environment and with good outflow, Bilis steadily increased in intensity, reaching super typhoon status at 1200 UTC on 21 Aug when located approximately 325 nm east-southeast of the southern tip of Taiwan. At this point Bilis exhibited a 25-nm round, cloud-free eye with an eye temperature of 17 C. Winds to 50 kts extended outward from the center over 60 nm to the northeast, and gales covered an area nearly 300 nm in diameter. (JMA's 10-min mean wind estimate had reached 100 kts by this time.) Super Typhoon Bilis reached its estimated peak MSW of 140 kts at 21/1800 UTC and maintained this intensity until it made landfall in Taiwan around 24 hours later. JMA's maximum 10-min mean wind estimate for the storm reached 110 kts at 22/0600 UTC with an estimated CP of 915 mb. Microwave imagery from a TRMM pass at 22/0347 UTC indicated possible concentric eyewalls. By 22/1200 UTC the center of Bilis had just about reached the coast of southeastern Taiwan. The eye diameter had shrunk to 12 nm, and while satellite intensity estimates were still 140 kts, the storm was beginning to show signs of weakening, likely due to some interaction with the mountainous island it was approaching. A 22/1009 UTC TRMM pass revealed concentric eyewalls with spiral convective bands wrapping into the center of the storm. Bilis made landfall along the south- east coast of Taiwan around 1500 UTC and by 1800 UTC was located over the west-central part of the island about 155 km south-southwest of Taipei. The typhoon was moving at around 15 kts as it made landfall and its forward motion increased to 18 kts while crossing Taiwan, so the center was over the island for no more than five or six hours. By 0000 UTC on the 23rd Bilis' center was well out into the Taiwan Strait about 155 nm west-southwest of Taipei. There was a significant discrepancy in MSW estimates between the warning agencies. JTWC's 1-min avg MSW was 120 kts while JMA's maximum 10-min avg wind estimate was 65 kts. PAGASA was in the middle with 80 kts, so that was the value I reported for 23/0000 UTC in the cyclone tracks file. Typhoon Bilis made landfall in China around 0300 UTC, and by 0600 UTC was inland about 175 km southwest of Fu Chau and weakening. Again, a large difference in the reported intensity between JTWC (90 kts) and JMA (45 kts). The weakening cyclone slowed in its forward motion and became very slow-moving in a region roughly 310 km west-southwest of Fu Chau. Around 1800 UTC some new convection developed over the north- east coast of Guangdong province well to the southeast of the low-level center, but this had weakened considerably six hours later. The final JTWC warning on Bilis at 24/0000 UTC, still reporting the MSW at 35 kts, placed the dissipating center about 330 km west of Fu Chau. (JMA had downgraded the system to a depression and issued their final bulletin at 23/1800 UTC.) The exact center of the eye of Typhoon Bilis crossed the Taiwanese coast just north of the surface weather station at Cheng-Kon (WMO 46761) located at 23.1N, 121.37E. The station was in the eye of the typhoon and recorded a minimum pressure of 931.2 mb, a maximum 10-min avg wind of 102 kts, and a peak gust of 152 kts. It should be noted that the anemometer was destroyed after the maximum wind was recorded. Another station, Lan-Yu (WMO 46762), located 117 km south-southeast of Cheng-Kon on an offshore island (22.03N, 121.53E), recorded a peak gust of 148 kts. The Lan-Yu station is located on top of a hill at about 300 m elevation. (These observations were taken from an e-mail by Chun-Chieh Wu, Associate Professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Taiwan University.) Mark Lander performed an analysis of the Cheng-Kon wind measurements in order to estimate the 1-min avg MSW at landfall. Using a conversion factor of 1.15 to convert 10-min mean winds to 1-min mean winds yields a MSW of approximately 117 kts. Working from the 152-kt gust and using a gust-reduction factor of 1.22 (used by JTWC) yields a MSW of 125 kts, which is in reasonably close agreement. Just prior to landfall Mark reports that Dvorak T-numbers from the satellite reception ground station at the University of Guam were running around T6.5--127 kts, which is in excellent agreement with the MSW value derived from the peak recorded gust. Also, Roger Edson has pointed out that Cheng-Kon lay in the southern half of the eyewall, and given that the strongest winds in an intense typhoon are most likely to be occurring in the northern eyewall, and considering the fairly brisk forward motion, he feels that winds very possibly a good deal stronger than 125 kts could have occurred to the north of the station. In fact imagery from the Doppler radar at Green Island at 22/1130 UTC indicated that the strongest winds were occurring in the northern eyewall. (Incidentally, according to Mark Lander, the maximum wind gust ever recorded in a typhoon was 166 kts. This has happened twice: once at Miyako Jima (WMO 47927) near the eye of Typhoon Cora in September of 1966, and the other on the Taiwanese island of Lan-Yu near the eye of Typhoon Ryan in September, 1995.) According to press reports and other information available to the author, Bilis' death toll in Taiwan stands at eleven. Eight of these were orchard workers buried by a mudslide in the central county of Nantou. Eighty persons were reportedly injured, and as of Friday, 25 Aug, five persons were still missing--one of those being a doctor who was mountain climbing when the typhoon struck. To make matters worse, a 5.7-magnitude earthquake struck the island the day following the typhoon's arrival. About 250 houses collapsed in eastern Hualien county due to the strong winds of Bilis, and more than 600,000 homes lost electrical power in the typhoon. Rains from the storm flooded approximately 40,000 hectares of rice paddies and orchards, resulting in agricultural losses of $48 million. Typhoon Bilis was much weaker when it made its final landfall in China, but the storm still packed quite a punch. In the coastal city of Jinjiang near where the center came ashore, more than 300 farmers' homes were destroyed and a 100-m seawall collapsed. Bilis dropped 220 mm of rain on coastal Fujian province, resulting in flooding which sent several rivers 2-3 m above warning levels. In Quanzhou 2300 hectares of crops were destroyed while 310 houses collapsed and 200 businesses were affected. Damage estimates for the coastal city of Fuzhou were 500 million yuan, equivalent to 69 million U. S. dollars. There, 845 homes were destroyed and more than 4500 trees uprooted. A Beijing newspaper also reported that a tornado triggered by Typhoon Bilis struck villages near the city of Yueqing in the eastern Chinese province of Zhejiang on 23 Aug. This tornado reportedly destroyed more than 50 homes and damaged 612 buildings. There were 16 serious injuries and the damage was estimated at $443,000. Finally, Patrick Hoareau sent me some information on the heavy rains which fell on South Korea in late August. Kunsan, in the southwestern portion of the country, recorded a 48-hour total of 468 mm ending at 0000 UTC on 27 Aug. The monthly average for Kunsan is 150 mm. Patrick notes that, based on some animation of GMS satellite imagery, it appears that the Korean rains resulted from the remnants of Typhoon Bilis. Tropical Storm Kaemi (TC-19W / TS 0011) 20 - 23 August ---------------------------------------- Kaemi: submitted by the Republic of Korea (South Korea), means ant. The ant often appears in Korean fairy tales as a symbol of diligence. Tropical Storm Kaemi was typical of many systems which form in the South China Sea (the "Gulf of Mexico" of the North Pacific), developing off the coast of Vietnam and moving westward and inland without significant intensification. An area of convection developed on 17 Aug off the southeast coast of Vietnam in association with the monsoon trough extending from Vietnam into the Philippine Sea. No LLCC was evident and the area was under moderate to strong vertical wind shear. By the 18th a weak, elongated LLCC had become evident in synoptic data and a QuikScat pass. A steady pressure drop and increasing convective organization led to the issuance of a Formation Alert at 19/0000 UTC. The area was embedded in the monsoon trough with linear convergent flow south of 11N. A 18/2201 UTC QuikScat pass revealed 20-30 kt winds around the periphery of the LOW with winds of only 10-15 kts near the center; hence, the system had the characteristics of a monsoon depression. By early on the 20th the system had shown improved organization with convection developing around the LLCC, so JTWC initiated warnings on TD-19W at 0600 UTC. The center of the 25-kt depression was located about 330 nm east-southeast of Da Nang and was tracking west- northwestward at 5 kts. The system was still under moderate vertical shear with outflow fair to the west and northeast of the LLCC. Guided by a subtropical ridge to the north, TD-19W moved generally in a northwesterly direction for most of its life, becoming more west- northwesterly as it approached the coast of Vietnam. By 21/0600 UTC deep convection, which had been most persistent west of the center, had increased in organization with a spiral band west of the LLCC wrapping into the southern quadrant; therefore, the MSW was increased to 30 kts. The system at this stage was still a large monsoon depression with the 1000-mb isobar about 500 nm in diameter. The 21/0600 UTC synoptic reports from sites WMO 59985 and 59981, located about 2 degrees north of the LLCC, indicated sustained winds of 20-25 kts with a pressure of 993 mb. By 1200 UTC on the 21st the system was centered approximately 170 nm east-southeast of Da Nang. Spiral bands over land west of the center had weakened, but convection west and south of the center had intensified and increased in areal extent. Synoptic ship reports approximately 40-50 nm southeast of the LLCC indicated sustained winds of 37 kts; hence, the depression was upgraded to a tropical storm. JMA also upgraded the system to a tropical storm at 1200 UTC, naming it Kaemi. Tropical Storm Kaemi reached its estimated peak intensity of 45 kts (from both JTWC and JMA) at 22/0000 UTC based upon satellite intensity analysis. The system was very near the coast of Vietnam about 60 nm east-southeast of Da Nang, and satellite imagery revealed an area of deep convection sheared to the southwest of a partially- exposed center. A 200-mb analysis indicated fair diffluence aloft with moderate vertical wind shear over the system. Kaemi made landfall at its peak intensity of 45 kts around 0600 UTC on 22 Aug with the associated deep convection sheared well to the south of an exposed LLCC. By 1200 UTC the system was inland about 55 km west of Hue, Vietnam, and dissipating. The final warning from JTWC at 23/0000 UTC placed the diffuse LLCC roughly 150 km west of Hue, just north of the Bolaven Plateau of southern Laos. The passage of Kaemi brought some fairly heavy rains to Vietnam. Da Nang recorded 140 mm in the 24 hours ending at 21/1200 UTC, and Hue measured 89 mm for a 24-hour total from 21/0000 UTC through 22/0000 UTC--more than half the monthly average of 137 mm. Various media sources reported that Kaemi brought more than 300 mm of rain to central Vietnam which caused extensive flooding. Three persons died in Quang Ngai province, one death occurred in the province of Danang, and another fatality was reported in the Thua Thien Hue province where over 12,000 hectares of rice fields were inundated. Also, according to media sources, a whirlwind moving across the Halong Bay on the 22nd sank two wooden boats carrying tourists, resulting in two deaths with three persons reported as missing. (I assume that "whirlwind" here more than likely means a waterspout or small tornado which was possibly related to the passage of Tropical Storm Kaemi.) On 24 Aug there were reports of more whirlwinds and a tornado affecting the southern provinces, primarily in the Mekong River delta region, with significant damage and injuries; however, these local storms would likely not have been directly attributable to the tropical storm. According to the Bangkok Post newspaper, the remnants of Kaemi were responsible for heavy rains which caused flash floods in northeastern Thailand. Two residents of the village of Surin were drowned, and there were also two fatalities in the Trat province. Substantial amounts of farmland, fruit orchards, and rubber plantations were ruined or damaged. In the Warin Chamrap district four homes were reportedly swept away while ten other homes and two temples were damaged. In the Trat province the total damage estimate was placed at 179, 355, 460 baht (Thai unit of currency). *********************************************************************** NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Activity for August: 1 tropical depression ** ** - system was briefly mentioned as a depression by IMD only *********************************************************************** SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Activity for August: 1 tropical disturbance ** ** - this system was treated as a minimal tropical storm by JTWC NOTE!!! See Part 1 of the August summary for the report on Tropical Disturbance #1 (TC-01S) and for the list of Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclone names for the 2000-2001 season. *********************************************************************** NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E Activity for August: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E Activity for August: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Activity for August: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** EXTRA FEATURE In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998 summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy to send them a copy. *********************************************************************** AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning centers will be passed along from time to time. The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved in the following manner: (a) FTP to: hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.176.206] (b) Login as: anonymous (c) For a password use your e-mail address (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data) (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii) (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name ) (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using August as an example: aug00.tracks) (g) To exit FTP, type: quit Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as Notepad or DOS editor to view the files. The first summary in this series covered the month of October, 1997. If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries, they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD. The summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature: aug00.sum, for example. Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Tom Berg, Michael Pitt, and Rich Henning): OR Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is: TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE I have discovered that JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 1999 (1998-1999 season for the Southern Hemisphere). Also, ATCRs for earlier years are available also. The URL is: Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 1999 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 1999 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available. The URL is: Prepared by: Gary Padgett E-mail: garyp at alaweb.com Phone: 334-222-5327 (nights & weekends) / 850-882-2594 (weekdays) *********************************************************************** *********************************************************************** +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.18.21.200] From: "Simon" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: The next week Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 10:53:40 EST X-OriginalArrivalTime: 10 Nov 2000 23:53:40.0510 (UTC) FILETIME=[735AEBE0:01C04B71] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Bugger.. my week off this week, and had perfectly "nice" weather... I go back to work on Tuesday, and all hell breaks loose... story of my life in a nutshell ;) Simon =============== Hi all For those in the Adelaide/Melbourne corridor the next week [after we get rid of this murky stratocu] looks supurb! Here in Adelaide we have a forecast of possible t-storms on every day from Monday to Thursday as that trough wangles its way back west. I'd say if people are gonna chase at any time this will be it. =============== _________________________________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com. Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at http://profiles.msn.com. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.18.21.200] From: "Simon" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: The next week Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 10:54:03 EST X-OriginalArrivalTime: 10 Nov 2000 23:54:03.0294 (UTC) FILETIME=[80EF7BE0:01C04B71] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Bugger.. my week off this week, and had perfectly "nice" weather... I go back to work on Tuesday, and all hell breaks loose... story of my life in a nutshell ;) Prolly just as well... my camera is being repaired (probably shouldn't have dropped it) Simon =============== Hi all For those in the Adelaide/Melbourne corridor the next week [after we get rid of this murky stratocu] looks supurb! Here in Adelaide we have a forecast of possible t-storms on every day from Monday to Thursday as that trough wangles its way back west. I'd say if people are gonna chase at any time this will be it. =============== _________________________________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com. Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at http://profiles.msn.com. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 09:45:21 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aus-wx: LIVE WX UPDATE: Funnel Cloud Nth of Swan Hill! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all! Just got phoned by a very excited Andrew McDonald and Chris Gribben who stayed the night at Swan Hill, they currently still have a funnel that has been going for ten minutes now, and when I got off the phone to them was half way descended to the ground!!! They can't tell whether it has touched down/is touching down due to trees though. They reported it to the BoM...but they got told that there were no storms on radar there. Hearing that made my blood boil and curdle...when the bloody hell will they learn!? Especially since the general area is not very well serviced by radar anyway. And if you look at the sat pics, there is some fresh convection in the general area where they are. But great news for Andrew and Chris - congratulations!!!!!!!!!!!!! -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 20:13:39 -0500 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id UAA18722 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com All, Our fuel prices fluctuate considerably. Earlier this year it was $1.60 and has now fallen to the $1.26 - 1.34 range. From week to week the price varies by $.10 to $.30 up and down. Les ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "evelyn&wayne" To: "weather" Subject: aus-wx: fear of storms Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 11:05:12 -0800 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
HI FOLKS,
 
I HAVE A PROBLEM THAT SOME OF YOU WEATHER WATCHES MIGHT BE ABLE TO HELP ME WITH. WHILE I ENJOY KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WEATHER, I AM AFFRAID OF BAD STORMS. BY BAD STORMS I MEAN WHEN THE LIGHTNING STEAKS OUT OF THE SKY AND THEN YOU GET THE CRACK OF THUNDER EVEN BEFORE THE LIGHTNING HAS FINNISHED. WE'VE HAD TWO STORMS THIS WEEK IN TOWNSVILLE, WHILE THE FIRST ONE WAS QUITE MILD I COULD SIT OUT THE BACK AND WATCH IT COME IN AND GO OVER HEAD. THEN WE GOT ANOTHER ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WAS BAD AND AFTER TRYING TO WATCH IT COME IN WITH THE LIGHTNING I HAD TO GO INSIDE AS IT WAS JUST TO BAD.IT DOES'NT SEEM TO WORRY ANYONE ELSE, JUST ME. ANY SUGGESTIONS ON HOW TO OVER COME THIS FEAR.LOOK FORWARD TO HEARING SOME ADVICE.
 
EVELYN
 
 Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 12:21:35 +1100 From: Matt Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Vic Tornado and funnel Clouds Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Andrew/Chris have seen 4 funnel clouds and 1 TORNADO! Funnel cloud reached the ground about 10km from them !!! They are driving towards it now. These are from some convection popping up west of Swan Hill, not from storms but Tcu! Matt Smith +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 20:17:26 -0500 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radio wx forecasts To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id UAA19795 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com You all might be interested in the fact that I just heard of a "mini tornado" in southern CA this morning. It was a short and narrow F0 path. So once again, minis occur here as well. Les ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "bussie" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: fear of storms Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 12:43:50 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
All I can say is that I treat lightning, especially close stuff, with the respect it deserves. After the strike on the pole in front of my house I now treat it with even more respect :-) I, like everyone else here love to watch it, if it's real close I head for the hills. I just think that I'm not much use to anyone fried :-))
Bussie (NE Victoria)
----- Original Message -----
To: weather
Sent: Sunday, November 12, 2000 6:05 AM
Subject: aus-wx: fear of storms

HI FOLKS,
 
I HAVE A PROBLEM THAT SOME OF YOU WEATHER WATCHES MIGHT BE ABLE TO HELP ME WITH. WHILE I ENJOY KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WEATHER, I AM AFFRAID OF BAD STORMS. BY BAD STORMS I MEAN WHEN THE LIGHTNING STEAKS OUT OF THE SKY AND THEN YOU GET THE CRACK OF THUNDER EVEN BEFORE THE LIGHTNING HAS FINNISHED. WE'VE HAD TWO STORMS THIS WEEK IN TOWNSVILLE, WHILE THE FIRST ONE WAS QUITE MILD I COULD SIT OUT THE BACK AND WATCH IT COME IN AND GO OVER HEAD. THEN WE GOT ANOTHER ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WAS BAD AND AFTER TRYING TO WATCH IT COME IN WITH THE LIGHTNING I HAD TO GO INSIDE AS IT WAS JUST TO BAD.IT DOES'NT SEEM TO WORRY ANYONE ELSE, JUST ME. ANY SUGGESTIONS ON HOW TO OVER COME THIS FEAR.LOOK FORWARD TO HEARING SOME ADVICE.
 
EVELYN
 
 Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 20:55:17 -0500 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" Subject: aus-wx: Vic Tornado and funnel Clouds To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id UAA28001 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Land-spouts develop from tcu. By the time they mature into tstms the tornadoes dissipate. Keep in mind that these tornadoes are most often associated with funnels aloft that never reach the surface yet they are still tornadoes. Look for surface debris whirls. Les > Andrew/Chris have seen 4 funnel clouds and 1 TORNADO! Funnel cloud > reached the ground about 10km from them !!! They are driving towards it > now. These are from some convection popping up west of Swan Hill, not > from storms but Tcu! > > Matt Smith ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com essage text written by INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com >Andrew/Chris have seen 4 funnel clouds and 1 TORNADO! Funnel cloud reached the ground about 10km from them !!! They are driving towards it now. These are from some convection popping up west of Swan Hill, not from storms but Tcu! Matt Smith< +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p17-max41.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.147.145] claimed to be storm.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0 Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 13:42:19 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Phil, I tend to not have bothered about the cost of fuel as you can get about 700km for a tank. Despite the cost, I think the cost of storm chasing is not too bad. In the 3 days I did 1700km of chasing. I think the long chases are about that on average 600km per day unless you have the action in that area - but don't always count on it. In the Coffs Harbour chase it was within the area I was but I had to return home that evening!!! Jimmy Deguara At 08:47 AM 10/11/00 +0930, you wrote: >Hi all > >Just a slight divergence (aloft?:) from the current 'supercell wars'. > >We all know that fuel prices have risen a lot in the last 6 months. I also >note the large distances covered by some of our eastern states chasers >(justified, based on recent activity!). My question is this: has anyone >got to the stage of curtailing the frequency/length of their chases simply >based on their rising cost? > >Just interested. This is eventually going to be a factor if prices keep >rising.......... > >And, now back to the supercells ;) > >Phil > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Chris Daley" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: fear of storms Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 16:19:09 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Evelyn,
 
Bussie is right, treat thunder storms with extreme respect.  They can be dangerous even when they are 15km away.
 
But, to overcome the fear, the only thing I can think of is a similar situation that I was in a number of years ago.
 
I love flying, gliding especially.  The problem I had was that when I went up in a light plane or a 2 seat glider, I would get very nervous, start sweating my guts out and you could hear my heart going from 2 mils away.  Not a real good thing for someone that has wanted to fly all his life.  Then one day I took a flight with a pilot who recognised what was going on with me, he didn't come out and say anything, but he knew, so he made me fly the glider.  As soon as I took the controls, my nerves sorted themselves out.
 
While you can't take control of the storms, you can keep yourself occupied while they are about.  If you have an SLR camera, why not try to take some photo's, or video if you have a cam-corder.  I would love to see some shots from the storms up there.  If you don't have a camera, maybe record some stats of the storm, lightning frequency, distance, maybe even see if you can work out how fast it's moving.
 
If you keep yourself busy, it goes a long way to helping your problem.
 
Regards,
 
Chris
Melbourne
 
----- Original Message -----
To: weather
Sent: Sunday, November 12, 2000 6:05 AM
Subject: aus-wx: fear of storms

HI FOLKS,
 
I HAVE A PROBLEM THAT SOME OF YOU WEATHER WATCHES MIGHT BE ABLE TO HELP ME WITH. WHILE I ENJOY KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WEATHER, I AM AFFRAID OF BAD STORMS. BY BAD STORMS I MEAN WHEN THE LIGHTNING STEAKS OUT OF THE SKY AND THEN YOU GET THE CRACK OF THUNDER EVEN BEFORE THE LIGHTNING HAS FINNISHED. WE'VE HAD TWO STORMS THIS WEEK IN TOWNSVILLE, WHILE THE FIRST ONE WAS QUITE MILD I COULD SIT OUT THE BACK AND WATCH IT COME IN AND GO OVER HEAD. THEN WE GOT ANOTHER ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WAS BAD AND AFTER TRYING TO WATCH IT COME IN WITH THE LIGHTNING I HAD TO GO INSIDE AS IT WAS JUST TO BAD.IT DOES'NT SEEM TO WORRY ANYONE ELSE, JUST ME. ANY SUGGESTIONS ON HOW TO OVER COME THIS FEAR.LOOK FORWARD TO HEARING SOME ADVICE.
 
EVELYN
 
 From: "Ben Quinn" To: Subject: aus-wx: Record breaking rain in northern QLD Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 16:33:13 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone,
 
Some whopping rain totals in northern QLD to 9am this morning - the following has been copied and pasted from the BOM weather summary
 
Innisfail had 336mm, Mourilyan Mill 335, Innisfail Wharf 318, McAvoy Bridge 219, Sth Johnstone 148, Tung Oil 143, Japoonvale 131,  Bucklands 118. On the northern Peninsula, Strathmay recorded 112, Pinnacle 103 and Weipa 92.
 
336mm!!!!! - looking at the climate information on the BOM site, that's a new 24 hour record for November! With the old one being 259.1mm
 
 
Just saw this on the ABC site too - re flash flooding in VIC from storms last night
 
 From: "Les" To: "aus-wx" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic Tornado and funnel Clouds Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 08:27:12 -0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com ----- Original Message ----- From: "Leslie R. Lemon" To: Sent: Saturday, November 11, 2000 1:55 AM Subject: aus-wx: Vic Tornado and funnel Clouds > Land-spouts develop from tcu ... and single cell Cb / squalls / MCS / coldfronts. In the UK we call them "tornadoes". The press call them "freak mini - tornados" (: Les (UK) +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Les" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 08:22:13 -0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com ----- Original Message ----- From: "Leslie R. Lemon" To: Sent: Saturday, November 11, 2000 1:13 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fuel costs and chasing > All, > > Our fuel prices fluctuate considerably So do ours - usually in an upward direction, presently about 0.81UKP per litre / that's around around 3.50 UKP per gallon you work it out how much *we* pay in US bucks / pacific pesos..... With that and lousy roads stormchasing in the UK is an expensive pursuit. Les (UK) +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Geelong Weather Services" To: Subject: aus-wx: More funnels SW of Geelong Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 19:48:04 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Twin funnels sighted by a reliable observer (farmer) from Wurdi Boluc, over the Deans Marsh area about 35-40 km SW of Geelong on Friday (10th) at 2.20 pm. They lasted 10 mins and did not touch down. Two other confirmations; they were apparently photographed and I'll be chasing this up on Monday. Around the same time two people were struck by lightning at Lorne (golfers of course) and one woman was hospitalised but OK. Several intensive t/s cells on Friday afternoon in the region: rainfall at Lethbridge 23.5 mm in 10 mins, Lorne 25 mm in 10 mins, Sheoaks 30 mm over 24 hrs. Urban Geelong received a trace. Lindsay Smail. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz (Unverified) X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32) Date: Sun, 12 Nov 2000 00:52:04 +1300 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: John Gaul Subject: aus-wx: May the Storm Force Be With You Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 09:00 11/11/00 +0930, you wrote: >Hi all > >For those in the Adelaide/Melbourne corridor the next week [after we get >rid of this murky stratocu] looks supurb! Here in Adelaide we have a >forecast of possible t-storms on every day from Monday to Thursday as that >trough wangles its way back west. I'd say if people are gonna chase at any >time this will be it. Good luck, good hunting and may the storm force be >with you........... > >Phil > MAy the Storm Force Be with You, indeed! It looks fairly hopeless here in NZ with the Monsoon looking as though it is starting to form over northern Australia which means any anticyclones are tracking more south which means that NZ is looking to be as fucking boring this summer wise as what it was last year. Shit I hate these La Nina-ish weather patterns. John Gaul NZ Thunderstorm society NZTS - more than just thunder +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz (Unverified) X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32) Date: Sun, 12 Nov 2000 00:32:51 +1300 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: John Gaul Subject: Re: aus-wx: fear of storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > HI FOLKS, I HAVE A PROBLEM THAT SOME OF YOU WEATHER WATCHES >MIGHT BE ABLE TO HELP ME WITH. WHILE I ENJOY KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WEATHER, >I AM AFFRAID OF BAD STORMS. BY BAD STORMS I MEAN WHEN THE LIGHTNING >STEAKS OUT OF THE SKY AND THEN YOU GET THE CRACK OF THUNDER EVEN BEFORE >THE LIGHTNING HAS FINNISHED. WE'VE HAD TWO STORMS THIS WEEK IN >TOWNSVILLE, WHILE THE FIRST ONE WAS QUITE MILD I COULD SIT OUT THE BACK >AND WATCH IT COME IN AND GO OVER HEAD. THEN WE GOT ANOTHER ON THURSDAY >NIGHT WHICH WAS BAD AND AFTER TRYING TO WATCH IT COME IN WITH THE >LIGHTNING I HAD TO GO INSIDE AS IT WAS JUST TO BAD.IT DOES'NT SEEM TO >WORRY ANYONE ELSE, JUST ME. ANY SUGGESTIONS ON HOW TO OVER COME THIS >FEAR.LOOK FORWARD TO HEARING SOME ADVICE. EVELYN > I have a fear of anticyclones. We have one over us at the moment I'm scared shitless! John Gaul NZ Thunderstorm Society NZTS - more than just thunder +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: May the Storm Force Be With You Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 22:42:42 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi John - dony drop your hat just yet. The monsoon trough seems quite happy where it is! The next Julian-Madden pulse seems to be about 85E at the moment judging by the possible TC forming SE of Diego Garcia. This indicates that a pulse of instability that the Darwin BOM seems to think may cause the trough to slip past the equator and form in the Southern Hemisphere. But then again their forecasts lately have left a lot to be desired....... so I wouldnt hold my breath. But then again did you see that monstrous storm over East NT / West QLD the last few nights....... just amazing....... Time for Darwin to cope some. As the comon sayin goes - "Bring it on!!" Paul in a Warm, Very sticky but dry Darwin. ----- Original Message ----- From: "John Gaul" To: Sent: Saturday, November 11, 2000 9:22 PM Subject: aus-wx: May the Storm Force Be With You > At 09:00 11/11/00 +0930, you wrote: > >Hi all > > > >For those in the Adelaide/Melbourne corridor the next week [after we get > >rid of this murky stratocu] looks supurb! Here in Adelaide we have a > >forecast of possible t-storms on every day from Monday to Thursday as that > >trough wangles its way back west. I'd say if people are gonna chase at any > >time this will be it. Good luck, good hunting and may the storm force be > >with you........... > > > >Phil > > > > MAy the Storm Force Be with You, indeed! > > It looks fairly hopeless here in NZ with the Monsoon looking as though it > is starting to form over northern Australia which means any anticyclones > are tracking more south which means that NZ is looking to be as fucking > boring this summer wise as what it was last year. > Shit I hate these La Nina-ish weather patterns. > > > John Gaul > NZ Thunderstorm society > NZTS - more than just thunder > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------