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Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2000 13:53:26 +1100
From: "Craig Geddes" <CRAIG.GEDDES at Warringah.nsw.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Anyone else watching Sydney get hammered?
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Hi all,

Currently here at the Emergency Control Centre at Terrey Hills (Northern Beaches of Sydney)

Temp 35.6 and rising
Humidity 40% and falling
Wind 0-7 from the North
mB 1012 and steady
Fire Danger Rating 4.2 (Low)



******************************************
Craig Geddes
Superintendent
Warringah Pittwater District
NSW Rural Fire Service
Thompson Drive, Terrey Hills, N.S.W.
Australia, 2084

Phone  9450 3000  Fax 9450 1028
Mobile  0417 265 173

Email Address : craig.geddes at warringah.nsw.gov.au 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 02:20:58 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: RE:Tropical Low NW of WA, Can two Lows Collide?
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Hi Chris and all.

>HEY JJ And all
>
>      Can someone inform me as to why there are sometimes quite large
>discrepencies between JTWC forecasts and Australias' BOM and through history
>who has been the most accurate. By the way, some models are forecasting a
>weak
>low to develop in the Coral Sea on Monday and move South West whilst slowly
>intensifying. (Could be interesting)

From my observations over the last few years, the BoM has a generally
better record with Australian systems, probably because they are focussed
on the region, with local knowledge being an advantage, wheras JTWC is
spreading it's attention over a far greater area - generally doing a good
job with typhoons in the South China Sea - NW Pacific.

JTWC can be right on the mark with more organised systems, especially when
they threaten NW Cape or some of the US fleet are in the region.

You also need to note that the BoM specifies wind speeds in 10 minute
average while JTWC uses 1 minute average, which can appear to cause a
larger discrepancy between them than what actually exists.

At times JTWC will rate a system as a cyclone whilst the BoM calls it a
tropical low, and sometimes the BoM has a cyclone whilst JTWC rates it as a
low - these determinations are based on different sets of criterea making
direct comparision more of an academic excercise.

JTWC has a slightly lower wind speed as cyclone strength than the BoM,
however there are other factors such as the quadrant distribution of winds
and distance from the centre that also come into play in their overall
assessment.

Also, the BoM has a far better record with midget systems - cyclone Tracy
taught them some valuable lessons, and several of the miniture systems that
were so common last season were far better handled by the BoM than JTWC.

JTWC seems to consistantly under estimate the intensity of midgets by a
considerable amount wheras the BoM advice info is often remarkably accurate
when compared to actual measurements.

With larger more severe and well organised systems both BoM and JTWC are
often in reasonable agreement with each other allowing for the differences
in criterea, although here JTWC tends to underestimate the intensity a
little, as it uses cyclone forecasting models developed for Hurricanes
whereas the BoM seems to have tailored their forecasting models better for
Australian conditions.

Unless a system is well organised it can be quite difficult to give a
reasonably accurate estimation of actual intensity, and in any case it is
mostly just 'educated guesswork' unless direct measurements are recorded,
hence the wide discrepancies between the agencies with less intense systems.

Both agencies really do a commendable job most of the time.

>      An even bigger querie is what would happen if the 2 Lows in the West
>come
>too close to each other (would they collide and form a massive system?), I
>have
>actually been interested to see what would happen with this scenario for many
>years, what do you guys predict should happen.

In open ocean the most likely scenario is that instead of colliding two
cyclones will fujiwara around each other keeping a respectable distance
between them - this effect is seen frequently enough in pairs of typhoons
in the South China Sea - NW Pacific to have it's own name.

There was an example of something related to the fujiwara effect in the
Coral Sea last season - a very large large low pressure circulation
developed over most of the Coral Sea, over a few days a series of midget
tropical lows developed on it's periphery to the north near PNG, each
heading E into Fiji's area of responsibility where they were asigned
numbers, then turned SE then S towards New Caledonia, then SW across the
Coral Sea towards SE Qld, becoming more W then WNW before making landfall
on the central Qld coast.

Apparently, on rare occasions closer approaches have happened - it seems
that sometimes the storms cancel each other and both dissipate, and
sometimes one becomes dominent and rips the other apart and absorbs it,
with a period of weakening which may be followed by subsequent
re-intensification.

In this case, the one up near Darwin is embedded in a large area of monsoon
activity, wheras the NW WA one is more or less detached from the main
monsoonal activity, so the WA one is likely to weaken further and dissapate
into a rain depression as it moves inland in a day or so, and the Darwin
one is more likely to consolidate further and become a cyclone in a day or
so as it passes the Kimberley coast, and could intensify as it moves
through the Timor Sea.

The lads in Karratha reckon it's very hot there and at Port Hedland, so
there appears to be plenty of heat in the region which could indicate that
the Timor Sea is also warm and therefore suited to supporting a decent
cyclone over the next few days.

>     CHEERS: Chris Nitsopoulos
>             James Cook Uni Met student
>
<snip>

Just some mental musings in the absense of actual cyclones!

Regards,
Carl.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: another OUTLOOK (Thursday)
Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2000 11:24:13 -0700
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Hi Harald,

I was wondering which sites you prefer to use for vieweing forecast models?
Just curious.

Thanks, Lyle.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Harald Richter" <hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov>
To: "Australian Severe Weather Association" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, November 29, 2000 4:38 PM
Subject: aus-wx: another OUTLOOK (Thursday)


>
> Hi folks,
>
> The AVN certainly has a sense of humor with an LI (< -4) bullseye centred
> over the Sydney CBD by 06 Z.  Why drive hundreds of kilometres when
> you can work in your office until 5pm, and then walk
> over the window?
>
> Good mid-level flow is progged S of a line from Cobar to Sydney
> overspreading decent low-level moisture predominantly residing in E NSW.
> Orographic forcing along the NSW coastal ranges might be the prime
> initiator today.  ATM it is too early in the day to nail
> any other type of low-level forcing mechanism.
> If convection gets going, S NSW has the better chance of a big storm.
>
> There's also an interesting moisture intrusion into C WA good for
> some rain in the middle of nowhere.  The top end (N WA and N NT)
> looks good again for tropical convection.
> There's a sharp dryline associated with a cyclonic shear zone
> just S of Broome (WA).  I wonder whether this could spark some
> extra activity today.
>
> Cheers, Harald
>
> --
> -------------------------------------------
> Harald Richter
> NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory
> 1313 Halley Circle
> Norman, OK 73069, U.S.A.
> ph.:    (405) 366-0430
> fax:    (405) 579-0808
> email:  hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov
> web:    http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~hrichter
> -------------------------------------------
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Low snow line.
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 09:20:32 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2722.2800" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A few cold air showers drifting off Bass Strait 
this morning showing a few snow streaks descending to about 1500m level,also 
some small hail reported over the eastern Bellarine Peninsular,also a nice 
example of strong winds last night at 300hpa with the clearing edge of a cirrus 
band flying along at about 130knots. regards Clyve H.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2000 17:01:38 +1100
From: Chas & Helen Osborn <hosborn at tassie.net.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Outlook: Thanks Harald, we appreciate your contributions!
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Lindsay Pearce wrote:

> G'day all,
>
> Just another acknowledgement of Harald's contributions, this stuff is really
> helpful,

I agree with you Lindsay, well done Harald.

Chas
Strahan Tasmania


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2000 14:51:48 -0800 (PST)
From: Avo Ohanian <stormchaser_1 at excite.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Storms
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>  8.40pm Balmain
>  Significant hail which is unusual for us here - 
> very heavy rain - not much lightning -  if we are
> getting hail and rain like this - the rest of
> Sydney must be getting a beating

Just some distant thunder, like echoes through an
hourglass.. :-) Mind you, I went outside around 9ish and
got splatted by some very large heavy droplets. Not much
though and it was not solid enough to call it hail.

What about in the afternoon! Sheesh.... One minute I was
watching the cute little ducklings waddle towards the lake,
next I was running damned fast for cover (I suspect one can
not out run a lightning stroke). News says North Ryde got
some nasty hits and I can certainly vouch for that brilliant
piece of reporting work (not). We had blackouts and loss of
microwave link due to the heavy rain (no damned Internet to
check out the precip and lightning charts). No hail here
though. Very strong wind gusts at the onset (being an IT
person and not a weather person, I suspect from reading 
the threads here and observing storms in general that pre-
storm gusts occur with all large storm cells).

Mind you, many students on campus doing exams. Many women
without umbrellas........... Work can be good sometimes :-)

Avo Ohanian
IS Support
Macquarie University





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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Harald Richter <hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov>
Subject: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: TODAY
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2000 17:48:37 -0600 (CST)
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Greetings,

Thank you for the notes of encouragement.  I enjoy forecasting 
convection for Australia.

Today's guess:  
An upper-level trough is moving across SE AUS as part of a progressive pattern.
On the surface high dewpoints stretch from 
Cunnamulla SE into Sydney underneath a progged axis of cool 
air extending into E NSW.  Lapse rates should be moderately steep
below the trough axis and are associated with high CAPE values, 
particularly where the upper cold axis intersects the surface
moisture axis in SE NSW.  If the model-forecast flow of 50+ knots at
500 hPa verifies, low-level easterlies near the sea breeze front lead to a 
favourable shear profile for supercells and isolated tornadoes should be 
possible N and NW of the Sydney area provided that the convection
remains reasonably isolated.  With a dry intrusion overspreading NSW
from the W insolation should be adequate.  I would check the 
morning soundings for lapse rates and moisture depth, though.

BTW, I use the AVN at

   http://sgi62.wwb.noaa.gov:8080/cgi-bin/disp_avn.sh

as my primary forecast model as (a) it performed well in some
cases that I looked at in the past in some detail, and
(b) it allows me to plot *a variety* of upper-level fields
such as H(500), winds(500) etc.  

I would love to hear about sites that have the same flexibility
using the ECMWF or the MESO-LAPS model!!

Enjoy, Harald

-- 
-------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069, U.S.A.
ph.:    (405) 366-0430
fax:    (405) 579-0808
email:  hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov
web:    http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~hrichter
-------------------------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2000 18:52:43 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hunter a right mover
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Paul wrote:
>              When I checked the winds, it looked like there may have
existed
> a northern-hemisphere situation at the time and location of the storm
with
> veering rather than backing in the lowest layers..This may have favoured
a
> right mover, I don't know.. Just a guess.
> - Paul G

Correct Paul.

Les.
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 01 Dec 2000 11:28:22 +1100
From: Ross Wilson <ross at cww.octec.org.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bathurst Severe Storm
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Hi David
Good report! I was actually in Yeoval when the lights went out Thursday
about 1.30pm, and remained off for the rest of the afternoon.  Storms
growling around, but nothing of significance.  But in Orange, when I got
home, reports of hail, and 22mm of rain in the gauge.  Must have been
very, very heavy rain through the day there.
Ross

davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au wrote:
> 
> 3.25pm 30/11
> 
> Huge storm hit Bathurst about 2.30pm.. Very strong winds, lines down on
> trees in Sth Bathurst area. CBD Bathurst all off. Still large of Bahturst
> off with brown outs, feeders down.. Faults all over the area.
> 
> Storms started in Molong,Yeoval,Cumnock area, which are all still without
> power.. Its going to be a long day here.. Pls email me for more info..
> 
> Dave
> Bahturst .
> 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Webcam Images
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 11:14:19 +1000
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Hi Everyone,

I have uploaded some awesome webcam images i've saved over the last few days
from Sydney and Darwin - the shelf cloud on the Syndey cam this morning was
quite spectacular!

http://bsch.simplenet.com/ben/tempcams/sydney.html

http://bsch.simplenet.com/ben/tempcams/darwin.html


Webcam chasing - i could get used to this :-)



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 12:40:35 +1100 (EST)
From: David Findlay <davsoft at yahoo.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Weird Weather Photos
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I was just having a look at the November 21 Bulletin
magazene, and on Page 21 there is an awesome photo of
some weird storm cloud formations over a beach. Anyone
know what it is?

It is a large black and white photo at the top of the
page with two surfers in front of it.

David

_____________________________________________________________________________
http://clubs.yahoo.com.au - Yahoo! Clubs
- Join a club or build your own!
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Lesiow" <fatman at acay.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Gosford Storm
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 15:49:03 +1100
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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Quite a nice storm passing through here now, 
frequent thunder and looks good on RADAR.&nbsp; Their is an STW out for Gosford 
now.&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Paul</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
X-Originating-IP: [210.8.224.2]
From: "James Harris" <jimbohar at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gosford Storm
Date: Fri, 01 Dec 2000 16:02:07 +1100
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<x-flowed>

Its actually..looking from radar.. a interesting storm given the fact that 
most of the cells in Sydney are heading ESE while that one flies up to the 
NE. It certainly is more of a dominant storm than the others too, nice size 
to it.
Heaps of Tcu going up over the rangers again !!
James H

>From: "Paul Lesiow" <fatman at acay.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: Gosford Storm
>Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 15:49:03 +1100
>
>Quite a nice storm passing through here now, frequent thunder and looks 
>good on RADAR.  Their is an STW out for Gosford now.
>
>Paul

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Fri, 01 Dec 2000 16:12:11 +1100
From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gosford Storm
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If you look at http://www.bom.gov.au/products/reg/wwrp/wwrp_anal.shtml
the sydney cell is going almost the opposite direction to the low level
winds. It's a little beast!

Potential for here (Wollongong) out to the west aswell.

Andrew.

James Harris wrote:
> 
> Its actually..looking from radar.. a interesting storm given the fact that
> most of the cells in Sydney are heading ESE while that one flies up to the
> NE. It certainly is more of a dominant storm than the others too, nice size
> to it.
> Heaps of Tcu going up over the rangers again !!
> James H
> 
> >From: "Paul Lesiow" <fatman at acay.com.au>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Subject: aus-wx: Gosford Storm
> >Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 15:49:03 +1100
> >
> >Quite a nice storm passing through here now, frequent thunder and looks
> >good on RADAR.  Their is an STW out for Gosford now.
> >
> >Paul
> 
> _____________________________________________________________________________________
> Get more from the Web.  FREE MSN Explorer download : http://explorer.msn.com
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-- 

--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney STW and interesting radar
Date: Fri, 01 Dec 2000 16:09:57 +1100
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<x-html>
<html><DIV>
<P>An STW is current for Sydney until 4:25pm and, interestingly, the severe advice out earlier for northern NSW has been replaced by one that covers both southern and central eastern NSW. </P>
<P>I rather like the look of the stuff just to the north of Sydney though.&nbsp;One cell tracking NE rapidly intensified from its genesis in northwestern Sydney to its current position&nbsp;west of&nbsp;Wyong (4:40UTC). As Harald indicated in his outlook, supercells are quite possible given the quite reasonable shear and this Wyong storm is looking good. Another&nbsp;intense cell tracking east through the lower hunter has split just east of Maitland, although the right mover (tracking SE)&nbsp;has weakened over the last scan (also 4:40 UTC).</P>
<P>Unfortunately I suspect all the chasers would have committed themselves to the north of the state.</P>
<P>_____________</P>
<P>TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST<BR>SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE<BR>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY<BR>NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE<BR>Issued at 1442 on Friday the 1st of December 2000<BR><BR>This advice cancels and replaces the advice issued at 14:29 pm and now<BR>affects people in the following weather districts:<BR>Hunter<BR>Illawarra<BR>Southern Tablelands, north of Bredbo and east of a line Bredbo, Queanbeyan<BR>to Crookwell<BR>South Coast, north of Moruya<BR><BR>Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of<BR>these are expected to be severe bringing large hailstones and&nbsp; damaging<BR>winds. <BR><BR></P></DIV><br clear=all><hr>Get more from the Web.  FREE MSN Explorer download : <a href="http://explorer.msn.com">http://explorer.msn.com</a><br></p></html>
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</x-html>
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Who stole our storms?
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 15:21:44 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0
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<x-html>
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<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=windows-1252" http-equiv=Content-Type>
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<BODY>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=640512005-01122000>Someone stole our Brisbane thunderstorms. Radar shows 
they are near Ballina. Any chance for Brisbane?</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=640512005-01122000></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=640512005-01122000>David</SPAN></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
X-Originating-IP: [210.8.232.5]
From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Cold air starts to bite...
Date: Fri, 01 Dec 2000 05:34:06 
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<x-flowed>
The cold surge moving up over SE Australia is starting to bite..

Some notable 4pm temperatures on the first day of summer include
Cooma 08, Canberra 13 and Moruya 14.

The change came through just after lunchtime. Ahead of it were some 
extremely vigourous congestus (which were very watchable)- some of which 
turned into storms.

With DPs dropping close to zero, a few late season frosts are likely on the 
Sthn tablelands/SW Slopes (including away from the Alpine areas).

Quite a change from just having experienced Canberra's record highest 
average minimum for November!!

Patrick
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From: "Damien Howes" <dhowes at flatrate.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Who stole our storms?
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 16:01:43 +1100
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Hi David, yeh it's just grand ain't it. The main problem as I 
read it is the low dew points inland of Brisbane. I am hoping that Cbs will 
still form in the strip within about 50kms of the coast during the evening as 
the trough moves further north. So Brisbane is still in with a chance of at 
least small Cbs later on. Then again, saying that should scare them away for 
sure.. Damien.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A href="mailto:nedz at bigpond.com" title=nedz at bigpond.com>David Findlay</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com" 
  title=aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, December 01, 2000 4:21 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Who stole our 
  storms?</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  class=640512005-01122000>Someone stole our Brisbane thunderstorms. Radar shows 
  they are near Ballina. Any chance for Brisbane?</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  class=640512005-01122000></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  class=640512005-01122000>David</SPAN></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Fri, 01 Dec 2000 03:11:21 +1100
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Webcam Images
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Ben,
What is the Sydney Web Cam - what is its url?
Don W 

Ben Quinn wrote:
> 
> Hi Everyone,
> 
> I have uploaded some awesome webcam images i've saved over the last few days
> from Sydney and Darwin - the shelf cloud on the Syndey cam this morning was
> quite spectacular!
> 
> http://bsch.simplenet.com/ben/tempcams/sydney.html
> 
> http://bsch.simplenet.com/ben/tempcams/darwin.html
> 
> Webcam chasing - i could get used to this :-)
> 
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From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Tstorms & hail
Date: Fri, 01 Dec 2000 18:07:24 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Hi all, 6pm, glenorie, sydney
    Storms again developed this afternoon. First glimpses of congestus at 
130pm driving home from work, some were reaching nice heights. It looked 
like it was very cold air aloft, some died in the ass (mainly the ones 
heading for here:), but others south took off, red blotches on radar. At 5pm 
after watching everywhere else get hammered, a storm took off 10ks sw of 
here and nailed us with 2 bouts of hailstorm, one lasting 3 mins and leaving 
the lawn white, largest size was 2cm. It was real nice at 530pm, was 
standing on the front step watching the dark sky, and then, clunk, a piece 
of ice lands at my feet, i looked straight to my mate standing 10 metres 
away, cause i thought he threw an ice cube at me, but then it just started 
bucketing hail out of nowhere, 7 hailshowers in 2 days, 9 in 4 years!... 
more to come by radar, i found it interesting that the 330pm 4cast was 
'thundery shower' when at 328pm they issued large hail and heavy rain 
warnings ?:),,, right now 2 storms both red intensity, one at hornsby moving 
ne, one at bankstown moving se....

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Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 18:16:01 +1100
From: Paul Lesiow <fatman at acay.com.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: More Gosford Storms
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Another cell is about to arrive here, it is pink on RADAR, distant 
thunder is now audible an heavy rain has iust started.  Also high 
winds.  Another STW has been issued for here

Paul

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From: "Paul Graham" <v_notch at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: TODAY
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 18:45:18 +1100
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I think you were pretty much spot on again today, Harold, particularly about
your prediction of Supercells north of Sydney- it looks like it's been one
after another!!
- Paul G.
----- Original Message -----
From: Harald Richter <hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov>
To: Australian Severe Weather Association <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, December 01, 2000 10:48 AM
Subject: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: TODAY


>
> Greetings,
>
> Thank you for the notes of encouragement.  I enjoy forecasting
> convection for Australia.
>
> Today's guess:
> An upper-level trough is moving across SE AUS as part of a progressive
pattern.
> On the surface high dewpoints stretch from
> Cunnamulla SE into Sydney underneath a progged axis of cool
> air extending into E NSW.  Lapse rates should be moderately steep
> below the trough axis and are associated with high CAPE values,
> particularly where the upper cold axis intersects the surface
> moisture axis in SE NSW.  If the model-forecast flow of 50+ knots at
> 500 hPa verifies, low-level easterlies near the sea breeze front lead to a
> favourable shear profile for supercells and isolated tornadoes should be
> possible N and NW of the Sydney area provided that the convection
> remains reasonably isolated.  With a dry intrusion overspreading NSW
> from the W insolation should be adequate.  I would check the
> morning soundings for lapse rates and moisture depth, though.
>
> BTW, I use the AVN at
>
>    http://sgi62.wwb.noaa.gov:8080/cgi-bin/disp_avn.sh
>
> as my primary forecast model as (a) it performed well in some
> cases that I looked at in the past in some detail, and
> (b) it allows me to plot *a variety* of upper-level fields
> such as H(500), winds(500) etc.
>
> I would love to hear about sites that have the same flexibility
> using the ECMWF or the MESO-LAPS model!!
>
> Enjoy, Harald
>
> --
> -------------------------------------------
> Harald Richter
> NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory
> 1313 Halley Circle
> Norman, OK 73069, U.S.A.
> ph.:    (405) 366-0430
> fax:    (405) 579-0808
> email:  hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov
> web:    http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~hrichter
> -------------------------------------------
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From: "Paul Graham" <v_notch at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Update...
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 19:28:34 +1100
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Hi Everyone,
I've just been listening on the Sydney airport channel and the winds there
are gusting up to 45 kts!!!!!!  I am surprised the Bureau do not have a gale
warning out!  Not only that, but I am surprised that earlier this afternoon
they cancelled the severe thunderstorm warning for Sydney only to re-issue
it a short time later.   At least one Sydney radio station did not bother to
check for an update as a result and were broadcasting "The severe
thunderstorm warning for Sydney has been cancelled" when the new warning had
been current for at least half an hour.  The Bureau really should not have a
"cancelled warning" bulletin when there is the potential for further storms
as was the case this afternoon as this just leads people to think that there
is no further risk...
- Paul G.
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From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Update...
Date: Fri, 01 Dec 2000 19:36:50 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Hi Paul and all,
     Im sure many are out chasing, since im at home watching these storms 
heres whats been happening, its 735 now, just had more hail, there is an 
awesome lightning display to the west, possible around the Richmond area and 
north, the bolts are very thick, winds are gusting, and like Paul said im 
sure some of these gusts are at or over 45knts, 2 large terracotta pots just 
got blwn over and smashed, the bolts are getting closer, time to switch 
off,,, :)))


>From: "Paul Graham" <v_notch at hotmail.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Update...
>Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 19:28:34 +1100
>
>Hi Everyone,
>I've just been listening on the Sydney airport channel and the winds there
>are gusting up to 45 kts!!!!!!  I am surprised the Bureau do not have a 
>gale
>warning out!  Not only that, but I am surprised that earlier this afternoon
>they cancelled the severe thunderstorm warning for Sydney only to re-issue
>it a short time later.   At least one Sydney radio station did not bother 
>to
>check for an update as a result and were broadcasting "The severe
>thunderstorm warning for Sydney has been cancelled" when the new warning 
>had
>been current for at least half an hour.  The Bureau really should not have 
>a
>"cancelled warning" bulletin when there is the potential for further storms
>as was the case this afternoon as this just leads people to think that 
>there
>is no further risk...
>- Paul G.
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From: "Adam Mayo" <oyam at bigpond.com>
To: "Australian Severe Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx:  Sydney Wind
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 20:06:06 +1100
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We are experiencing quite high winds at present.  In Chatswood a building is
losing sheets of roofing and there are several calls out to clear fallen
trees in the wider northern beaches area.  The temperature outside is
reading 15 degrees.  What a change after yesterday.

Judy Mayo



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Date: Fri, 01 Dec 2000 20:21:05 +1100
From: Keith Barnett <weather at ozemail.com.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: Try this..
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Found this very informative website today while looking for long range
rainfall forecast info.

http://www.thefarmshed.com.au/weather/rain_outlook.jhtml
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From: "Paul Graham" <v_notch at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Hook Echo on Williamtown 8:30 UTC...
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 20:25:39 +1100
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There is a persistent hook echo on the Williantown local radar from 7:30pm
EDT on until around 8:00pm EDT  - the storm is moving SE while the others
are moving NE - so it appears to be a severe right mover.   I would not be
surprised if there is a tornado in this.  The wind profile on this
afternoon's soundings would seem to favour severe right movers (a northern
hemisphere profile).
- Paul G.
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From: "Matthew Piper" <mjpiper at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Storms
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 20:41:20 +1100
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Hi Everyone,

Well what a great day its been. Coming home from work on the train I passed
through three seperate storms all of which had some fantastic CG's and
torrential rain. The only hail I came across was some really small stuff on
the Harbour Bridge. It didnt appear to be even pea size although I cant give
an accurate indication as I was in the train at the time. When I got home
the winds here in Blaxland were really howling. Must have been at least Gale
force as others have already mentioned. All up I received 10mm of rain today
almost all of which fell between 6 & 8PM. The current temp (8:32PM) is a
very chilly 12.7 degrees after a max today of 27.7  at  1:20PM. It seems the
main cause of the storms today was the passage of an intense cold pool of
air which really destabilised the atmosphere.

Matthew Piper

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From: "bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: WOW!
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 20:45:36 +1100
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Big stuff happening around Sydney/Williamstown.
Bussie (NE Victoria)

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Date: Fri, 01 Dec 2000 21:26:46 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: NE NSW storms / BOM advice cancellation ?
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<x-flowed>
Just AFTER the BoM removed the north of the State from the severe 
thunderstorm advice area (2.45pm), Ulmurra just NE of Grafton (northern 
rivers) was hit by damaging winds and hail !  Though I'm not sure whether 
we (Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Northern Tablelands) were just 
forgotten because of the central area activity. There was no 'cancellation' 
as such.

Anyway, severe weather hit near Grafton just before 3pm with roofing iron 
blown off a building and hail from there to the coast at Wooli. Later, some 
decent storms got going closer to me near Lismore. We had 13.8mm in under 
10 minutes with all gutters overflowing and the ground awash. Some small 
hail occurred and 30-35 knot NE outflow winds from the rear of the cell.

TDU2K chasers Matt Smith and Greg Browning dropped in this evening and 
Michael Thompson and Jane ONeill were pursuing a cell near Murwillumbah. 
Jimmy & Jeff are down at Grafton.

regards, Michael

  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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</x-flowed>
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 02:48:11 -0800 (PST)
From: Avo Ohanian <stormchaser_1 at excite.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx:  Sydney Wind
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> We are experiencing quite high winds at present.  In
> Chatswood a building is losing sheets of roofing and
> there are several calls out to clear fallen
> trees in the wider northern beaches area.

Yeah, pretty strong breeze (!!) going through Willoughby (which is not
surprising as it is the next suburb!! :-) ) As I look up, I note the high
level cloud is pretty much stationary, whereas
the lower level is moving like it's proverbial was on fire.
Paul ducked into to my office (after leaving his exam early cause
he heard a thunder clap - hmmmmmmmmmm ) and mentioned that there
is a strong lower level jet stream. I am starting to understand
the highly complex (and dynamic) nature of things so would I
be correct in assuming that it is possible to have many levels
of wind that move in different directions (even up to 180 degrees out of
phase) and speeds simultaneously?

It is just on 9:40pm and I am hearing a constant rumble (past
5 minutes!) I thought it was fireworks, but the last significant
warble sounded like a distinct thunder echo. Anyone else
noticing this? (Perhaps it is just fireworks). Radar seems like
everything is settling down though.

Have a good weekend all....

Avo Ohanian
IS Support
Macquarie University





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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 02:52:43 -0800 (PST)
From: Avo Ohanian <stormchaser_1 at excite.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gosford Storm
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>  Quite a nice storm passing through here now, frequent thunder > and looks
good on RADAR.  Their is an STW out for Gosford
> now.  

Yup. Very artistic shade of red surrounded by a surreal 
presence of purple and yellow...:-) Did ya notice the cell way out to sea?
Looked impressive on the BOM Radarmatic.

Avo Ohanian
IS Support
Macquarie University





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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Webcam Images
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2000 22:22:07 +1000
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Hi Don,

Sorry, i meant to put the URL at the bottom of the page

http://202.139.104.2/pri/icam?picturepage=picturepage1.htm&tilt=-8.5&zoom=1.
0&scale=0.75&brightness=0&quality=45

Normally you click on the image to move the camera around, but it doesn't
seem to be working tonight


----- Original Message -----
From: "Don White" <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, December 01, 2000 2:11 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Webcam Images


> Ben,
> What is the Sydney Web Cam - what is its url?
> Don W
>
> Ben Quinn wrote:
> >
> > Hi Everyone,
> >
> > I have uploaded some awesome webcam images i've saved over the last few
days
> > from Sydney and Darwin - the shelf cloud on the Syndey cam this morning
was
> > quite spectacular!
> >
> > http://bsch.simplenet.com/ben/tempcams/sydney.html
> >
> > http://bsch.simplenet.com/ben/tempcams/darwin.html
> >
> > Webcam chasing - i could get used to this :-)
> >
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