X-Originating-IP: [203.41.218.150] From: "Paul Graham" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: NSW Storms Today.... Date: Mon, 11 Dec 2000 19:28:29 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 11 Dec 2000 19:28:29.0734 (UTC) FILETIME=[8A996C60:01C063A8] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, Looks pretty good to me...In fact, I think the SE change in this case might serve well as a "Storm Enhancer". Further more, with its timing and the fact it is a very shallow change, organised storms may well survive in its wake. The main problem I see today is that, ahead of the change, the cap will be very weak as a result of very unstable lapse rates aloft and the daylight heating quickly destroying the nocturnal surface inversion. This will mean storms will develop anywhere and everywhere. The lapse rates aloft are very unstable due to yesterday's high inland (west of ranges) boundary layer sitting across the coast and ranges. Now once the SE change comes through, this unstable air will better cap it off than it will the pre-frontal air...So this may help to organise the convection more. The other thing is that it will also enhance low level wind shear with almost complete turning of the winds. In short, the SE is not always the "storm eradicator" and in certain situations it may well be known as the "storm enhancer" - Paul G. >Hi Matt and all, > >Even though the storms will be ok tomorrow, I think the upper level winds >will provide for more pulse like storms. The middle level winds are >stronger then the upper level winds which can easily interrupt the >stability of updraughts - unless of course if they were powerful. I also >detect that the temps at 500 will be around -12/-13 although that is not >much of a difference. > >Having said all this though, the storms will be photogenic due to the ample >drier air aloft. The lapse rates are quite good for tomorrow. I will chase >tomorrow. > >Jimmy Deguara > >At 06:55 PM 11/12/00 +1100, you wrote: >>Hi everyone (mainy NSW people) >> >>Keep an eye out for storms tomorrow (ie the forecast) but AVN also has a >>nice little upper cold pool moving across at 500mb dropping the temp to >>about -13/14 which makes things a little more interesting, with the weak >>change comming through as well, i think there may be storms to the south >>moving up with the change, hopefully some pushing ahead of the change. >>It may be getting a little too dry west of the ranges tomorrow for >>storms, but going by the congestus that popped up on the ranges today, i >>wouldnt rule it out yet, could be high based stuff. >>Anyway thats just what i think, looking forward to a stormy day ! >> >>Matthew Smith >>http://www.sydneystormchasers.com >> >> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >>to:majordomo at world.std.com >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >> message. >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > >----------------------------------------- >Jimmy Deguara >Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > >from >Schofields, Sydney >NSW Australia > >e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > >Web Page with Michael Bath > >Australian Severe Weather Home Page >http://www.australiasevereweather.com > >President of the Australian Severe Weather Association >http://www.severeweather.asn.au > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >message. >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _____________________________________________________________________________________ Get more from the Web. FREE MSN Explorer download : http://explorer.msn.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------