http://australiasevereweather.com/


Date: Thu, 01 Mar 2001 00:04:59 +1100
From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Squall line
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Hi all,

Michael T - was in at the Sydney BoM this afternoon and heard that some
hail had been reported from around Wollongong. I saw some great rotating
lowerings and lifting scud as the gust front went over Kurnell -
Sutherland but it had stoped by the time I got to a good vantage point!

I am currently seeking out permission to post to the web a panoramic
view that was taken at Lucas Heights this afternoon - it's a corker!

Andrew.



David Croan wrote:
> 
> Funnily, after complaints by chasers concerning the lack of squall lines
> through Sydney this season, we finally got one and it was a CLASSIC!!! -
> nice shelf cloud, beautiful black, deep blue and green colouring to the
> precip curtain and, of course, alot of lightning. I was trying to get into
> position somewhere on the north side and ended up being caught in Belrose -
> it was moving quite quickly.  regards   David
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> 
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-- 

--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon)
Date: 01 Mar 01 02:13:40 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Need info to help study on radio propagation
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Hello All!

I posted recently, on a topic which hinted at relationships between jet
streams, severe weather events and radio propagation.

I'm sort of in the middle of things here, and am finding out more with each
exchange.  Anyway, the basic gist of what is happening is:

One or more radio amateurs is studying the possible causes of a condition in
the atmosphere known as "Sporadic E" propagation, where a specific layer of the
upper atmosphere becomes heavily ionized.  This condition causes signals within
a certain frequency range to propagate over distances greater than normal (any
Melbournites seen TV channel 0 Toowoomba lately? :) ).

Despite being known for a long time, sporadic E is still poorly understood.
However, there are some people who believe it may be caused by weather events,
rather than solar radiation or other factors which are traditionally assumed to
cause sporadic E.

We will probably be looking for historical data on jet stream activity over
Australia and/or severe weather events.  Is there anywhere I can get hold of a
summary of such data that may be useful for this investigation?  I will be
posting more, just waiting for permission to do so (the discussion is in
private email now), and any other information that may help.

Any help would be appreciated on this one, you could be helping to solve a very
old mystery of the airwaves. :-)

Tony, VK3JED

.. TV Truth:  All cars will explode when wrecked.
--
|Fidonet:  Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
|
| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.


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Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 18:05:53 +1100
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: Heavy Rain 
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I notice that Sydney (Obs Hill) had 17 mm in the 10 mintes to 4.16 pm
(actually 16.8 mm or 101 mm/hr). From observations in the area, it might
have fallen in less time. It will be interesting to see if BoM makes
available any pluvios etc.

don W
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 18:25:50 +1100
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High temps
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I note that media reports indicate that it was Sydney's 3rd ottest
summer ever with ave min temps the principal culprit. How did other
centres or Aust / or SE Aust as a whole end up I wonder.  Perhaps,
Blair, you have some figures from your great data set.
don w

Blair Trewin wrote:
> 
> >
> >
> > Anyone notice the high temps in NW NSW in recent days.
> > Tibooburra yesterday reached 46 - by my records, it was the first 46
> > degree temp in NSW in February since Ivanhoe reached 46 on 17 Feb 1981
> > and we have to go back to 7 Feb 1970 for Hay on 47 to beat it. also 45
> > at a few places - White Cliffs / wilcannaia and 44 I think in Bourke...
> > any Feb recxords here?.
> 
> Hadn't noticed that it had gone that high.
> 
> The exact number was 45.6, highest in NSW since at least the
> controversial 45.8 at Liverpool on 1/2/77 (discussed a few weeks ago
> in this group), otherwise since 46.7 at Hay on 7/2/70. (The 17/2/81
> obs at Ivanhoe was 45.5). The NSW February record (based on the
> digital archive) is 47.2, set on no fewer than 5 different occasions
> (most recently at Hay and Urana on 1/2/1968).
> 
> The Tibooburra temperature is the highest since at least 1921 (I've
> got digitised 1921-56 data to add to the post-1957 stuff in the main
> database) for February there.
> 
> > Given that the best March has manged in the past 40 years is 43, it must
> > be the latest in the season for a +45 degree temp in NSW for a very long
> > time. Any one on how long?
> 
> Tibooburra had 45.0 on 1/3/1951. I expect that is the most recent 45+
> later than this.
> 
> Blair
> 
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Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 08:24:31 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High temps
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>I note that media reports indicate that it was Sydney's 3rd ottest
>summer ever with ave min temps the principal culprit. How did other
>centres or Aust / or SE Aust as a whole end up I wonder.  Perhaps,
>Blair, you have some figures from your great data set.
>don w

Second hottest summer on record for Adelaide, only just beaten by 1905-06.
Hottest night temperatures on record I believe.  Driest summer in 9 years
too.

Thank the weather gods it seems a bit autumnal now......

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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Date: Thu, 01 Mar 2001 09:44:26 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: Corresppndence From Jimmy Deugara & Nick Moir
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Jimmy asked me to send this to the list as he is having problems with
his email.

Hi all,

Nick Moir a member of ASWA and also a photographer with Fairfax assures
me that there will be a colour photograph on the front page of the
Sydney Morning Herald Thursday of the squall line approaching Sydney.
There will be a mention of ASWA in the short passage of the article.

On another note, the article about my involvement in storm chasing in
the Good Weekend will be in the 10th March edition apparently. I hope
there has been a mention ASWA and ASW in that article as I had mentioned
several times to put the URL in. We shall see though....

I am off to bed - still ill from the hard  day I had )
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from 
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mailjdeguara at ihug.com.au

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Met Support 3" <twc at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Need info to help study on radio propagation
Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 12:52:08 +1100
Organization: The Weather Company
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Hi Tony & everyone,
                                Sounds interesting...In my ARRL antenna book
(1960's but still useful - I received 2nd hand from a relative), it suggests
sporadic E is somehow related to stratospheric winds.  Although, as you
suggest, other factors may well be involved.  Perhaps even thunderstorm
activity.  Recent research has been looking at jets of ionised gas (sprites
as they are known, I think)  at the tops of active thunderstorms.  Maybe an
archive of satellite photos would be useful?  This way you can also see
where thunderstorms have been, not just jetstreams.  For example, water
vapour images will reveal jetstreams and thunderstorms as they provide a
view of the upper troposphere.
Good luck with your research.
Paul G.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Tony Langdon" <tlang at freeway.apana.org.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 01, 2001 3:13 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Need info to help study on radio propagation


>
> Hello All!
>
> I posted recently, on a topic which hinted at relationships between jet
> streams, severe weather events and radio propagation.
>
> I'm sort of in the middle of things here, and am finding out more with
each
> exchange.  Anyway, the basic gist of what is happening is:
>
> One or more radio amateurs is studying the possible causes of a condition
in
> the atmosphere known as "Sporadic E" propagation, where a specific layer
of the
> upper atmosphere becomes heavily ionized.  This condition causes signals
within
> a certain frequency range to propagate over distances greater than normal
(any
> Melbournites seen TV channel 0 Toowoomba lately? :) ).
>
> Despite being known for a long time, sporadic E is still poorly
understood.
> However, there are some people who believe it may be caused by weather
events,
> rather than solar radiation or other factors which are traditionally
assumed to
> cause sporadic E.
>
> We will probably be looking for historical data on jet stream activity
over
> Australia and/or severe weather events.  Is there anywhere I can get hold
of a
> summary of such data that may be useful for this investigation?  I will be
> posting more, just waiting for permission to do so (the discussion is in
> private email now), and any other information that may help.
>
> Any help would be appreciated on this one, you could be helping to solve a
very
> old mystery of the airwaves. :-)
>
> Tony, VK3JED
>
> .. TV Truth:  All cars will explode when wrecked.
> --
> |Fidonet:  Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
> |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
> |
> | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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X-Originating-IP: [202.61.183.194]
From: "David Sercombe" <daveserc at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: shelf cloud on front page of SMH
Date: Thu, 01 Mar 2001 02:47:46 -0000
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<x-flowed>
Has anyone seen the front page of today's Sydney Morning Herald?

It shows a pretty awesome shelf cloud in one of the storms that crossed 
Sydney yesterday afternoon.

Right now, a very dark (yet small) cumulus congestus about to possibly dump 
a fair bit of rain just to the west of Coffs Harbour.


David Sercombe
Coffs Harbour NSW
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</x-flowed>
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: OFF TOPIC - Announcement - 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5  September 22, 2000
Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 15:45:14 +1100
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on Domino/Advance(Release 5.0.5 |September 22, 2000) at
 01/03/2001 03:45:10
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

HI all..

Im sure alot people have heard..

We have been informed from Bob Carr of a merger between 3 Energy Companies,
Advance Energy, North Power and Great Southern Energy..

Craig Murray  who is Advance Energy's Managing Director, will be the new
Company's  - Country Energy  - Managing Director.

Thanks

Dave



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From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High temps
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 16:19:10 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> I note that media reports indicate that it was Sydney's 3rd ottest
> summer ever with ave min temps the principal culprit. How did other
> centres or Aust / or SE Aust as a whole end up I wonder.  Perhaps,
> Blair, you have some figures from your great data set.
> don w

Haven't got the state/regional averages to hand (and the person who
normally runs them is away this week), but some numbers for the major
cities:

Melbourne

Mean max	28.1 (3rd; highest 28.3 in 1950-1, 1897-8)
Mean min	16.9 (highest; previously 16.8, 1980-1)
Mean		22.5 (highest; previously 22.4, 1980-1)
Rainfall	57.8 (6th lowest)

Adelaide

Mean max	31.3 (2nd; highest 31.4 1905-6)
Mean min	18.6 (1st; previously 18.3 1967-8)
Mean		24.9 (1st; previously 24.7 1897-8)

Sydney

Mean max	27.3 (3rd; highest 28.5 1990-1)
Mean min	20.2 (equal 2nd with 1997-8; highest 20.7 1990-1)
Mean		23.7 (3rd; highest 24.6 1990-1)

Interesting that the three highest mean max values (which are not
affected by urbanisation to the extent that the mins are) have all
been since 1990.

Canberra

Mean max	28.8 (5th; highest 29.9 1990-1)
Mean min	14.0 (equal 3rd; highest 14.8 1980-1)
Mean		21.4 (5th; highest 21.9 1990-1)

Hobart

Mean max	23.2 (2nd; highest 23.3 1894-5)
Mean min	13.3 (1st; previously 13.1 1970-1)
Mean		18.2 (1st; previously 17.7 1994-5)
Rainfall	53.4 (6th; lowest 34.3 1897-8)

The January-February rainfall for Hobart of 12.2mm is the 2nd lowest
on record, after 9.4 in 1914.

Blair
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From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High temps
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 16:50:39 +1100 (EST)
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I've now got hold of the regional anomalies for summer. Notable
ones are:

Southern Aus	max	+1.44 (1st)
		min 	+1.56 (1)
		mean 	+1.50 (1)

SE Aus		max	+2.49 (1)
		min	+1.76 (2)
		mean 	+2.13 (1)

SA		max	+2.58 (1)
		min	+2.74 (1)
		mean	+2.66 (1)

(the SA figures were all records by at least a full degree!)

NSW		max	+2.15 (1)
		min	+1.58 (2)
		mean 	+1.87 (2)

Victoria	max	+2.50 (1)
		min	+1.65 (2)
		mean	+2.08 (2)

Tasmania	max	+1.89 (2)
		min	+0.79 (7)
		mean	+1.34 (3)

February figures were mostly high, but not as spectacular, but SA
set records for minima and monthly mean, and Tasmania for maxima.

On the other side of the coin completely, Liawenee got -4.8 this
morning, missing the Tasmanian March record low by only 0.3 (and
this was on the 1st of the month). The new AWS there looks to be in 
a colder site than the already cold former site and is worth watching.

Blair
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X-Originating-IP: [210.8.232.5]
From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High temps
Date: Thu, 01 Mar 2001 06:18:01 
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<x-flowed>
Thanks Blair for the info in your posts..

A question I have had for some time is whether there is an increasing 
frequency being observed of new record high temperatures (as might be 
consistent with a climate warming trend for Australia)and any decrease in 
frequency of new record low temperatures?

Or are frequencies of records at both ends more or less stable and more or 
less evenly balanced (as might be indicative of relatively stable climatic 
conditions; and the fact that accurate and systematic recording of 
temperatures is a relatively recent - in climatic terms - phenomenom)?

Is such data available?

Thanks Patrick


>From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: High temps
>Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 16:50:39 +1100 (EST)
>
>I've now got hold of the regional anomalies for summer. Notable
>ones are:
>
>Southern Aus	max	+1.44 (1st)
>		min 	+1.56 (1)
>		mean 	+1.50 (1)
>
>SE Aus		max	+2.49 (1)
>		min	+1.76 (2)
>		mean 	+2.13 (1)
>
>SA		max	+2.58 (1)
>		min	+2.74 (1)
>		mean	+2.66 (1)
>
>(the SA figures were all records by at least a full degree!)
>
>NSW		max	+2.15 (1)
>		min	+1.58 (2)
>		mean 	+1.87 (2)
>
>Victoria	max	+2.50 (1)
>		min	+1.65 (2)
>		mean	+2.08 (2)
>
>Tasmania	max	+1.89 (2)
>		min	+0.79 (7)
>		mean	+1.34 (3)
>
>February figures were mostly high, but not as spectacular, but SA
>set records for minima and monthly mean, and Tasmania for maxima.
>

_________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Reply-To: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
	"Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Bug with Squall line report and video stills fixed
Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 17:46:34 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au

Thanks to those who pointed out that all the content was aligned to the left
margin. This was specific to Internet Explorer and tested OK with Netscape,
its fixed now anyway.


Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com



--
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Date: Thu, 01 Mar 2001 19:54:57 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bom soundings
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Hi Lindsay,

On the BoM sounding there's 2 plots.  The red is the current/most recent
sounding.  Its time/date is written at the bottom in red.  The right red
line is the temperature, the left red line is the dew point.  Along the
bottom and top horizontal axis, and the right vertical axis is the
temperature.  These can be read at any given level by following the
diagonal lines to a certain temperature.  The left vertical axis
displays the pressure height.

For example, to read the 500mb temperature, simply find the right
temperature line and where it intersects the 500mb line.  Then following
a diagonal brown line to a temperature.  Just follow the same diagonal
pattern to get temperatures outside of the 10C intervals.  However the
500mb level has 2C tabs on it to help you work it out.

The grey line is the current OR forecast theoretical air parcel plot
line.  If you want to know how to plot this - just ask :)

The blue line is the previous sounding, the right blue line is the
temperature and the left blue line is the DP.  This is useful in that
you can easily compare the previous the sounding with the current
sounding to work out if things are drying/moistening and warming or
cooling.

On the right are the winds.  The strength is measured in barbs.  Half a
barb is 5kn.  A full barb is 10kn.  A bold/thick barb is 50kn.  It also
indicates the direction.  The top of the page is "north," the end of the
line with the barbs on it is facing the direction the wind is coming
from.  So the barbs are on the line facing the left, the wind is from
the west of 270 degrees.

Hope this helps!

AC

Lindsay Pearce wrote:
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> Could someone give me some guidance on the temperature soundings on the
> Bom's pages.
> 
> Are there any good links to understanding them?
> 
> Also, where can I view  Li's and CAPE? I've looked at total-totals but they
> don't always seem indicative of storm development.
> 
> Thanks for your help, in advance.
> 
> Lindsay Pearce
> Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> Email: writer at lisp.com.au or snowfall at optusnet.com.au
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon)
Date: 01 Mar 01 20:52:55 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Need info to help study on radio propagation
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Hello Met!

01 Mar 01 12:52, you wrote to All:

 MS>                                 Sounds interesting...In my ARRL
 MS> antenna book (1960's but still useful - I received 2nd hand from a

Well, antennas still work the same after all these years. ;-)

 MS> relative), it suggests sporadic E is somehow related to stratospheric
 MS> winds.  Although, as you suggest, other factors may well be involved.
 MS> Perhaps even thunderstorm activity.  Recent research has been looking
 MS> at jets of ionised gas (sprites as they are known, I think)  at the
 MS> tops of active thunderstorms.  Maybe an archive of satellite photos

That's a useful suggestion.  Sprites are obviously an ionization phenomenon,
and would be a possible culprit.  At this stage, we are suspecting multiple
possible causes.  Stratospheric winds are still a possible culprit.

Our aims are:

1.  To understand Sporadic E better
2.  Predict possible openings in advance, as we can with ionospheric F and
tropospheric ducts/inversions.

 MS> would be useful?  This way you can also see where thunderstorms have
 MS> been, not just jetstreams.  For example, water vapour images will
 MS> reveal jetstreams and thunderstorms as they provide a view of the
 MS> upper troposphere. Good luck with your research. Paul G.

OK, thanks.  I can see I'm going to have to broaden my weather interests and
learn a bit more meterology to carry this one through, but that's only going to
be for the better. :-)

Tony, VK3JED

.. This one!  THUD   <f/x - sound of phone bill dropping on table>
--
|Fidonet:  Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
|
| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon)
Date: 01 Mar 01 20:57:52 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Need info to help study on radio propagation
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Hello Met!

01 Mar 01 12:52, you wrote to All:

 MS> Perhaps even thunderstorm activity.  Recent research has been looking
 MS> at jets of ionised gas (sprites as they are known, I think)  at the
 MS> tops of active thunderstorms.  Maybe an archive of satellite photos

On that score, does anyone have any records for severe (or other significant)
weather events that occured last Saturday (any time of day), location and type
of event...

There was one or more major sporadic E openings that stretched from Melbourne
and Adelaide to Brisbane during the day, and later in the day, it was most
pronounced over S.E.  Australia - Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide.

Tony, VK3JED

.. I live in a quiet neighborhood. They use silencers.
--
|Fidonet:  Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
|
| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 01 Mar 2001 21:17:43 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD Wx
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Hi all,

Some showers and TS around in NE NSW and SE QLD today.  The sky had
hinted at something later on - and when some showers developed on the
border ranges I was getting a little excited.  I drove down to
Beaudesert and saw several large showers/small Cb's precipitating.  One
eventually took my eye to the SW of Beaudesert.  This gave rain rates
between 100-120mm/hr!  Could hardly see the road!  On the western edge
of this cell, I received strong winds (30-35kn), strong enough to break
off some small branches (very small...one foot or so!) off trees, but
the winds were brief.  

Still, better than nothing!

We are continuing through our period of marginal possibilities for the
next few days.  It will be better on the ranges and further west
though.  Oh well, we can only see and hope that we get a few more days
like this - or even better, days where we can see flashes of lightning
and hear rumbles of thunder! :)

Can't complain though!!!  (Sort of ;)
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High temps
Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 10:47:46 -0700
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hi Blair,

<snip>
> 
> Interesting that the three highest mean max values (which are not
> affected by urbanisation to the extent that the mins are) have all
> been since 1990.

What's your quantitative opinon on the UHI with respect to max's? 

Cheers, Lyle

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 05:48:24 +1100
From: Dion Williams <onamission at today.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney 5:40am
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And now there's a great line of storms out to sea stretching from the
top of the Illawarra coastal plain to south of Kiama.. wish it was in
the daylight!

Dion
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 04:41:56 +1100
From: Dion Williams <onamission at today.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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For anyone who's still awake in the Illawarra there's some rather tasty
stuff heading over the Southern Highlands towards Wollongong at the
moment.. might not be anything much stormwise but there's patches of
green in there.. maybe time for some nice nighttime lightning shots :)
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 06:26:26 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Abigail
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Morning all,

Have saved the JCU coloured IR image & the Halls Creek radar images
(broad & local) from this morning at
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/abigail.htm
The radar signature of Abigail is stunning!!!...and where she's
heading?  out to sea again.......

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Joy Farnan" <jfarn at acepia.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Rain
Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 08:04:18 +1100
Organization: 
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Hi all,
Just when ARE we going to get some badly needed rain here in Melb!!!!
Rain dance isnt helping at all...

Joy
----- Original Message -----
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 26, 2001 10:01 PM
Subject: aus-wx: TC Abigail images


> Evening all,
>
> I know this is a horribly long URL but if you can manage to either click
> on it or copy it and paste it into your browser, you get to have a look
> at the images of TC Abigail since the 20th February - stunning visible
> images!!!!
>
>
http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:7777/tc-bin/tc_home?YEAR=2001&MO=Feb&BASIN=SHEM
&STORM_NAME=12P.ABIGAIL&PROD=ir1km_bw&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=Latest&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=
tc&DISPLAY=active&CURRENT=20010226.0731.gms-5.vis.x.ABIGAIL.12P.jpg&DIR=/dat
a/www/tropical_cyclones/tc01/SHEM/12P.ABIGAIL/ssmi/ir1km_bw&MOSAIC_SCALE=20%
&STYLE=frames&ACTIVES=01-SHEM-12P.ABIGAIL,01-SHEM-91P.INVEST,01-SHEM-92S.INV
EST
>
>
>
> If you get lost, start here
> http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:7777/tc-bin/tc_home
> and click on 12P.ABIGAIL in the left hand frame.
>
> You can also choose 1km images - visible, IR, tracks in the top right
> hand corner....some stunning imagery!!!!
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Squall Line (--Email from Jimmy--) 
Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 10:45:50 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.600" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" color=#000000 size=2>
<P><FONT face=Arial>&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;Jimmy's email isn't working so this&nbsp;is 
a de facto email from him&lt;&lt;&lt;&lt;&lt;&lt;&lt;&lt;------</FONT><FONT 
face=Arial>dann</FONT></P>
<P>Hi all,</P>
<P>Nick Moir a member of ASWA and also a photographer with Fairfax assures me 
that there will be a colour photograph on the front page of the Sydney Morning 
Herald Thursday of the squall line approaching Sydney. There will be a mention 
of ASWA in the short passage of the article.</P>
<P>On another note, the article about my involvement in storm chasing in the 
Good Weekend will be in the 10th March edition apparently. I hope there has been 
a mention ASWA and ASW in that article as I had mentioned several times to put 
the URL in. We shall see though....</P>
<P>I am off to bed - still ill from the hard day I had )</P>
<P>-----------------------------------------</P>
<P>Jimmy Deguara</P>
<P>Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher</P>
<P>from </P>
<P>Schofields, Sydney</P>
<P>NSW Australia</P></FONT><U><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" color=#0000ff size=2>
<P>e-mailjdeguara at ihug.com.au</P></U></FONT></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Bug with Squall line report and video stills fixed
Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 17:46:34 +1100
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Thanks to those who pointed out that all the content was aligned to the left
margin. This was specific to Internet Explorer and tested OK with Netscape,
its fixed now anyway.


Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High temps
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 2 Mar 2001 09:12:35 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> Thanks Blair for the info in your posts..
> 
> A question I have had for some time is whether there is an increasing 
> frequency being observed of new record high temperatures (as might be 
> consistent with a climate warming trend for Australia)and any decrease in 
> frequency of new record low temperatures?
> 
> Or are frequencies of records at both ends more or less stable and more or 
> less evenly balanced (as might be indicative of relatively stable climatic 
> conditions; and the fact that accurate and systematic recording of 
> temperatures is a relatively recent - in climatic terms - phenomenom)?
> 
> Is such data available?
> 
> Thanks Patrick

I've spent a fair part of the last six years looking at exactly this
question in my (hopefully) soon-to-be-completed Ph.D thesis.

Whilst I've been looking at the frequency of temperatures above and
below certain thresholds (both fixed and percentile-based) rather
than the frequency of record-breaking, the results, I imagine, are
still of interest. These show that the frequency of extreme high 
(defined as those in the top 5% or 10% of the overall frequency
distribution) maximum and minimum temperatures are increasing, and 
that the frequency of extreme low maxima and minima is decreasing,
over the 1957-96 period. The trend is strongest for low minima, and
considerably weaker for high maxima than for the other three indicators.

Generally speaking the trends are strongest in winter. In the case of
low minima the trends are especially strong in Queensland; for low
maxima there is a marked decline in the winter half-year in areas 
exposed to the winter westerlies (Tasmania, Victoria, southern SA).
The trends tend to be weak or non-existent in summer and autumn in 
much of south-eastern Australia (this goes for means too), although
the data set I used finishes in 1996 and the succession of very hot
summers since then in that area may shift the long-term trend.

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [152.91.8.248]
From: "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Abigail
Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 09:53:29 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 Mar 2001 22:53:29.0690 (UTC) FILETIME=[6EFDC3A0:01C0A2A2]
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<x-html>
<html>
<DIV>
<P><BR><BR></P>Stunning indeed Jane.&nbsp; When I saw the first email, a few days ago, about stunning images of Abigail, I thought it was someone passing on soft porn images of the former 96 star!</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>I wonder if Abigail will do a Steve by following the Coral Sea-Indian Ocean trail he blazed last year?&nbsp; Time will tell.</DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: Jane ONeill<CADENCE at STORMCHASERS.AU.COM> 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: Aussie-wx<AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM> 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: Abigail 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 06:26:26 +1100 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Morning all, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Have saved the JCU coloured IR image &amp; the Halls Creek radar images 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;(broad &amp; local) from this morning at 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://www.stormchasers.au.com/abigail.htm 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;The radar signature of Abigail is stunning!!!...and where she's 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;heading? out to sea again....... 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Jane 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;-------------------------------- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Jane ONeill - Melbourne 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;cadence at stormchasers.au.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Melbourne Storm Chasers 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://www.stormchasers.au.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;ASWA - Victoria 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://www.severeweather.asn.au 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;-------------------------------- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 
<DIV></DIV><br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>
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Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 10:13:20 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: storms...
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Had a storm here at 7am this morning. Thunder and some moderate rain,
best stuff developed out to sea though.

The good thing, is that it has now cleared, and we have sunshine galore.
If this keeps up and with the trough hanging around we should see some
more storms here in Sydney this arvo..
*fingers crossed*

Matt Smith


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: storms...
Date: Fri, 2 Mar 2001 11:04:23 +1100
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Hi Matt

Similar situation in the Illawarra. Already( 10.30am ) there is convection
occurring everywhere, including that rarest of all - over the coast even.

Michael


----- Original Message -----
From: "Matt Smith" <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, 2 March 2001 10:13
Subject: aus-wx: storms...


>
> Had a storm here at 7am this morning. Thunder and some moderate rain,
> best stuff developed out to sea though.
>
> The good thing, is that it has now cleared, and we have sunshine galore.
> If this keeps up and with the trough hanging around we should see some
> more storms here in Sydney this arvo..
> *fingers crossed*
>
> Matt Smith
>
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: storms...
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5  September 22, 2000
Date: Fri, 2 Mar 2001 10:57:24 +1100
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on Domino/Advance(Release 5.0.5 |September 22, 2000) at
 02/03/2001 10:57:24
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HI Matt..

Yes Bathurst had early storm as well, didnt see time.  Was asleep until
thunder scared living daylights
out of me.. Had small amount of rain..  Still overcast now in Bathurst,
nice cool day...

Dave

BAthurst
----- Forwarded by David Carroll/Advance on 02/03/2001 10:39 -----
                                                                                                                                 
                    Matt Smith                                                                                                   
                    <tornado at bigpond.net.au>           To:     aussie-weather at world.std.com                                      
                    Sent by:                           cc:                                                                       
                    aussie-weather-approval at wor        Subject:     aus-wx: storms...                                            
                    ld.std.com                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                 
                    02/03/2001 10:13                                                                                             
                    Please respond to                                                                                            
                    aussie-weather                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                 





Had a storm here at 7am this morning. Thunder and some moderate rain,
best stuff developed out to sea though.

The good thing, is that it has now cleared, and we have sunshine galore.
If this keeps up and with the trough hanging around we should see some
more storms here in Sydney this arvo..
*fingers crossed*

Matt Smith


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From: Hank de Wit <H.deWit at bom.gov.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bom soundings
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I could add a further word on the grey line parcel on the BOM sounding and 
the resultant Lifted Index (LI), since that is my work. Traditionally on 
web soundings the environmental surface temperature and dewpoint are used 
as the 'baseline' for the lifted parcel. The advantage I suppose is that 
everyone will come up with the same LI value. However we (weather 
forecasters in South Australia - I'm from the SA BOM) preferred to try to 
estimate a typical afternoon parcel, so that the LI would be more 
representative of values at the time of maximum convection. This has the 
effect of producing much lower LI's than you might typically see calculated 
from other Internet sites.

1. The method I chose to estimate the 'afternoon' surface dewpoint was to 
simply mix the lowest 50hPa moisture in the trace. This is a fairly 
traditional method which tries to take into account convective mixing and 
some kind of surface evaporation. It works surprisingly well.

2. The afternoon temperature is more problematic. We chose originally to 
simply take the temperature at the top of the 150hPa surface layer and 
bring it dry adiabatically to the surface. This does not work in very moist 
situations, so I modified the method slightly. If the line of constant 
mixing ratio of the calculated parcel surface dewpoint crosses the 
environmental temperature sounding within that 150hPa surface layer, the 
temperature of this cross-over point is taken instead of the top of the layer.

I hope that makes sense. This morning's Sydney trace shows what I mean. 
It's a nice rain saturated trace.

         http://www.bom.gov.au/products/reg/IDS65024/IDS65024.94767.shtml
                         (user: bomw007 password: aviation)

The 18.6C parcel dewpoint is calculated by mixing the environmental 
moisture in the lowest 50hPa. For the temperature I would normally have 
taken the temperature of the sounding 150hPa above the surface (about 14C) 
and taken it adiabatically down to the surface producing a parcel surface 
temperature of 27C or 28C. However the parcel mixing ratio line crosses the 
environmental temperature at 944hPa which is within the 150hPa layer. I 
therefore take this as the LCL thus making the surface parcel temperature 
23.6C. Looking at the Sydney METARS at showing precipitation and 8 octas of 
cloud and a temperature of 22.7 at 2330, 23.6C is not a bad 'guess'.

I have found that this method works reasonably well. It fails miserably in 
very dry situations, particularly when solar radiation would not mix the 
lowest 150hPa. Examples are the Antarctic soundings. It's hard though to 
produce a simple method that works over a wide geographic and seasonal 
range. As the LI is mostly used for TS forecasting I have chosen a rule 
that works well in typical Australian convective situations.

I apologize for the use of jargon which I don't explain, but if this 
monologue gets any longer no-one will read it.

Cheers
Hank

At 19:54 1/03/2001 +1000, Anthony Cornelius wrote:
>Hi Lindsay,
>
>On the BoM sounding there's 2 plots.  The red is the current/most recent
>sounding.  Its time/date is written at the bottom in red.  The right red
>line is the temperature, the left red line is the dew point.  Along the
>bottom and top horizontal axis, and the right vertical axis is the
>temperature.  These can be read at any given level by following the
>diagonal lines to a certain temperature.  The left vertical axis
>displays the pressure height.
>
>For example, to read the 500mb temperature, simply find the right
>temperature line and where it intersects the 500mb line.  Then following
>a diagonal brown line to a temperature.  Just follow the same diagonal
>pattern to get temperatures outside of the 10C intervals.  However the
>500mb level has 2C tabs on it to help you work it out.
>
>The grey line is the current OR forecast theoretical air parcel plot
>line.  If you want to know how to plot this - just ask :)
>
>The blue line is the previous sounding, the right blue line is the
>temperature and the left blue line is the DP.  This is useful in that
>you can easily compare the previous the sounding with the current
>sounding to work out if things are drying/moistening and warming or
>cooling.
>
>On the right are the winds.  The strength is measured in barbs.  Half a
>barb is 5kn.  A full barb is 10kn.  A bold/thick barb is 50kn.  It also
>indicates the direction.  The top of the page is "north," the end of the
>line with the barbs on it is facing the direction the wind is coming
>from.  So the barbs are on the line facing the left, the wind is from
>the west of 270 degrees.
>
>Hope this helps!
>
>AC
>
>Lindsay Pearce wrote:
> >
> > Hi all,
> >
> > Could someone give me some guidance on the temperature soundings on the
> > Bom's pages.
> >
> > Are there any good links to understanding them?
> >
> > Also, where can I view  Li's and CAPE? I've looked at total-totals but they
> > don't always seem indicative of storm development.
> >
> > Thanks for your help, in advance.
> >
> > Lindsay Pearce
> > Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> > Email: writer at lisp.com.au or snowfall at optusnet.com.au
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
>Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


Hank de Wit
Regional Computer Manager
Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia
mailto:H.deWit at BoM.gov.au
ph: 08 8366 2674

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</x-flowed>
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Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 11:15:45 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Hank de Wit <H.deWit at bom.gov.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Snow White virus
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I'm sorry for this off topic item, but I just got sent that pesky Snow 
White virus again. This virus fakes the senders address but I did find the 
ISP source in the header. The ISP is one-net in Sydney. As I don't have 
much correspondence with people in Sydney I was wondering if it was someone 
on this list.

	[from sam-lynch---tgl (async193-syd-isp-4.nas.one.net.au [203.101.4.194])

If you can identify the above portion of sender info as yourself, then I'm 
afraid your email has been infected.

Cheers
Hank

Hank de Wit
Regional Computer Manager
Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia
mailto:H.deWit at BoM.gov.au
ph: 08 8366 2674

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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Abigail
Date: Fri, 2 Mar 2001 11:02:51 +1000
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He he,

Wouldn't be too many on the list old enough to remember that Michael...

The 9:30am IR pic on the BoM site shows amazing structure for something
which has travelled so far over land.  But the models do not seem to think
that it will move out to sea, rather just decay over WA.  But these things
seem to have a mind of their own of course.

John.
>snip

Subject: Re: aus-wx: Abigail


Stunning indeed Jane.  When I saw the first email, a few days ago, about
stunning images of Abigail, I thought it was someone passing on soft porn
images of the former 96 star!

I wonder if Abigail will do a Steve by following the Coral Sea-Indian Ocean
trail he blazed last year?  Time will tell.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 09:58:13 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Abigail
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I am certainly not pulling the links to Ex-TC Abigail from my site 
(http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm) until she shows a lot less 
organisation than she currently has.  My guess is an eventual wander out 
over the Indian, but who really knows?

And I still clearly remember Abigail of 96 but hadn't realised that it 
was all that long ago!

Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672



-----Original Message-----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Fri, 2 Mar 2001 11:02:51 +1000
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Abigail

> He he,
> 
> Wouldn't be too many on the list old enough to remember that Michael...
> 
> The 9:30am IR pic on the BoM site shows amazing structure for something
> which has travelled so far over land.  But the models do not seem to
> think
> that it will move out to sea, rather just decay over WA.  But these
> things
> seem to have a mind of their own of course.
> 
> John.
> >snip
> 
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Abigail
> 
> 
> Stunning indeed Jane.  When I saw the first email, a few days ago,
> about
> stunning images of Abigail, I thought it was someone passing on soft
> porn
> images of the former 96 star!
> 
> I wonder if Abigail will do a Steve by following the Coral Sea-Indian
> Ocean
> trail he blazed last year?  Time will tell.
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> +
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> to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Snow White virus
Date: Fri, 2 Mar 2001 12:48:37 +1100
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Hank,

there are sooooooooo many copies of the Snow White virus running around atm,
that it's nigh impossible to keep track of them.  Quite often now they will
turn up at a totally different time to any other email that you may
receive - I think a good virus checker program & a fast delete key are the
best ways of keeping this particular one under control.

Jane

---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------


-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Hank de Wit
Sent: Friday, 2 March 2001 11:46
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com; aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Snow White virus


Hi all,

I'm sorry for this off topic item, but I just got sent that pesky Snow
White virus again. This virus fakes the senders address but I did find the
ISP source in the header. The ISP is one-net in Sydney. As I don't have
much correspondence with people in Sydney I was wondering if it was someone
on this list.

	[from sam-lynch---tgl (async193-syd-isp-4.nas.one.net.au [203.101.4.194])

If you can identify the above portion of sender info as yourself, then I'm
afraid your email has been infected.

Cheers
Hank

Hank de Wit
Regional Computer Manager
Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia
mailto:H.deWit at BoM.gov.au
ph: 08 8366 2674

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User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.01 (1630)
Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 12:42:04 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow White virus
From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

We actually called one-net last year to inform of this (we get the snow
white virus about a dozen times a day) and they looked into it. Their
findings were that they were being spammed and the virus was not coming from
one-net at all. We have also noticed that the virus can originate from
several different servers - all of which are probably faked addresses.

So we just block the messages and forget about it. Tracking down these
losers is next to impossible.

-- 
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
http://www.theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________


> From: Hank de Wit <H.deWit at bom.gov.au>
> Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 11:15:45 +1030
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Snow White virus
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> I'm sorry for this off topic item, but I just got sent that pesky Snow
> White virus again. This virus fakes the senders address but I did find the
> ISP source in the header. The ISP is one-net in Sydney. As I don't have
> much correspondence with people in Sydney I was wondering if it was someone
> on this list.
> 
> [from sam-lynch---tgl (async193-syd-isp-4.nas.one.net.au [203.101.4.194])
> 
> If you can identify the above portion of sender info as yourself, then I'm
> afraid your email has been infected.
> 
> Cheers
> Hank
> 
> Hank de Wit
> Regional Computer Manager
> Bureau of Meteorology
> South Australia
> mailto:H.deWit at BoM.gov.au
> ph: 08 8366 2674
> 
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 

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X-Originating-IP: [210.8.224.2]
From: "James Harris" <jimboharr at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Here we go .....
Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 14:16:13 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Gday all,

Quick call from Dann confirmed what Sydney chasers weer hoping for !! TCU 
everywhere.
Dann has a big cell with a strong Anvil north of Katoomba in the Blue 
Mountains. There is also, according to radar, some big cells that have 
formed On the hills behind Ulludulla and are now Pink/red just near Nowra 
heading due north... Could be intersting for Sydney later. There is also 
plenty of Cu over sydney at the moment that seems to be getting bigger.. 
heres hoping !

On other thing to note is the big cell out to see of the Moruya coast ... Im 
only looking from Radar but does anyone else thinks it looks very Sus 
Supercellish ?



_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
From: "Carolyn" <carolyn at netcentral.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: off topic: duplicate posts
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001 14:30:04 +1100
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Michael,
Ozemail isn't the only one with email problems this week!!!!!

Carolyn


> Sorry for all those duplicate posts - yet another email stuff up from
> Ozemail. My email program was getting "send receive failure notices", but
> obviously they were getting through !! - several hours late though
>
> MB
>
>
>   =============================================================
>   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
>   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
>   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>   =============================================================
>
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X-Originating-IP: [210.8.224.2]
From: "James Harris" <jimboharr at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Here we go .....
Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 14:44:41 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 02 Mar 2001 03:44:41.0285 (UTC) FILETIME=[1CDF9750:01C0A2CB]
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<x-flowed>

Further to that .. this just out !!!!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1422 on Friday the 2nd of March 2001

This advice affects people in the following weather districts:

Sydney Metropolitan
Hunter
Central Tablelands
Illawarra
Southern Tablelands north and east of line Yass to Queanbeyan to
Cooma
South Coast north of Moruya

Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon and
early evening. Some of these are expected to be severe bringing large
hailstones, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall.


>From: "James Harris" <jimboharr at hotmail.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Here we go .....
>Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 14:16:13 +1100
>
>Gday all,
>
>Quick call from Dann confirmed what Sydney chasers weer hoping for !! TCU
>everywhere.
>Dann has a big cell with a strong Anvil north of Katoomba in the Blue
>Mountains. There is also, according to radar, some big cells that have
>formed On the hills behind Ulludulla and are now Pink/red just near Nowra
>heading due north... Could be intersting for Sydney later. There is also
>plenty of Cu over sydney at the moment that seems to be getting bigger..
>heres hoping !
>
>On other thing to note is the big cell out to see of the Moruya coast ... 
>Im
>only looking from Radar but does anyone else thinks it looks very Sus
>Supercellish ?
>
>
>
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>message.
>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 14:47:49 +1100
From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Squall line
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

The panorama I promised is now at

http://www.ozemail.com.au/~amiskelly/280201pan.jpg

The centre of the photo looks east. The neon glow came out brilliantly.
This is courtesy of one of my Dad's colleagues at Lucas Heights.

Andrew.


Andrew Miskelly wrote:
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> Michael T - was in at the Sydney BoM this afternoon and heard that some
> hail had been reported from around Wollongong. I saw some great rotating
> lowerings and lifting scud as the gust front went over Kurnell -
> Sutherland but it had stoped by the time I got to a good vantage point!
> 
> I am currently seeking out permission to post to the web a panoramic
> view that was taken at Lucas Heights this afternoon - it's a corker!
> 
> Andrew.
> 
> David Croan wrote:
> >
> > Funnily, after complaints by chasers concerning the lack of squall lines
> > through Sydney this season, we finally got one and it was a CLASSIC!!! -
> > nice shelf cloud, beautiful black, deep blue and green colouring to the
> > precip curtain and, of course, alot of lightning. I was trying to get into
> > position somewhere on the north side and ended up being caught in Belrose -
> > it was moving quite quickly.  regards   David
> > _________________________________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
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> 
> --
> 
> --
> Andrew Miskelly
> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 

--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 14:50:40 +1100
From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Here we go .....
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

It could be a very interesting afternoon in that the cells are heading
South -> North which isn't the most common scenario...

Andrew.

James Harris wrote:
> 
> Gday all,
> 
> Quick call from Dann confirmed what Sydney chasers weer hoping for !! TCU
> everywhere.
> Dann has a big cell with a strong Anvil north of Katoomba in the Blue
> Mountains. There is also, according to radar, some big cells that have
> formed On the hills behind Ulludulla and are now Pink/red just near Nowra
> heading due north... Could be intersting for Sydney later. There is also
> plenty of Cu over sydney at the moment that seems to be getting bigger..
> heres hoping !
> 
> On other thing to note is the big cell out to see of the Moruya coast ... Im
> only looking from Radar but does anyone else thinks it looks very Sus
> Supercellish ?
> 
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> 
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-- 

--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Dunedoo Storm
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Date: Fri, 2 Mar 2001 15:20:56 +1100
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Just recvd report of hail storm in Dunedoo, outages reported..

Looks like a nice storm building up around Goulburn and north of Lithgow..

Dave
Bathurst

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X-Originating-IP: [203.134.35.77]
From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Nice 4cast for Sydney:
Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 16:28:30 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 02 Mar 2001 05:28:32.0248 (UTC) FILETIME=[9ED11780:01C0A2D9]
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<x-flowed>
IDF77N00
GREATER SYDNEY WEATHER SERVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 3:54pm on Friday the 2nd of March 2001
TEXT REVISED HOURLY BETWEEN 6AM AND 7PMWARNINGS:
A Severe Thunderstorm Advice is current for the Greater Sydney region.

WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW:
The weather radar shows showers and thunderstorms over the Blue Mountains.  
More showers and thunderstorms are approaching the southern parts of Greater 
Sydney region.  The thunderstorms have the potential to be severe, bringing 
large hailstones, damaging winds and local heavy rainfall.  Light to 
moderatenortheast wind.

CURRENT WEATHER DETAILS:                 Weather
City          Thunderstorms approaching from south.
Mascot        Thunderstorms approaching from south.
Richmond      Thunderstorms approaching from south.
Bankstown     Thunderstorms approaching from south.
Sea swell 1.2 metres from the southeast

WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS:
Showers and thunderstorms affecting the western and southern parts of 
Greater Sydney,  spreading to the rest of Greater Sydney in the next hour or 
two.  Chance of large hails, damaging winds and local heavy falls with 
thunderstorms. Moderate east to northeast wind, squally in thunderstorms.

FORECAST FOR Tonight and Saturday  High Fire Danger inland.
The chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening, possibly severe. A 
few
showers overnight and  tomorrow.  Moderate northeast winds tending 
southeast.

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gustnado
Date: Fri, 2 Mar 2001 17:52:34 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Hi all,

Just a question to throw out there amongst you all.  I had a thought
(provoked through reading it somewhere) that gustnadoes didn't actually have
cloud base rotation and that it was more surface voriticity that lead to
these features.  I'd be interested to hear peoples thoughts/comments on this
statement.

Regards,

Andrew McDonald.


----- Original Message -----
From: Matthew Piper <mjpiper at ozemail.com.au>
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 28, 2001 9:16 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Gustnado


> Hi Michael and all,
>
> I too saw what looked very much like a funnel of some sort but I couldnt
get
> a clear enough look at it. Matt Pearce was with me at the time at work and
> drew my attention to it. It was right where a gustnado would likely be
> amongst one of the most beautiful shelf clouds I have seen for a long
time.
> The green colouring in this storm and the chaotic cloud motion was also
> certainly a sight to behold. This is by far the best storm I have seen in
> Sydney this season structure wise.
>
> Matthew Piper
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 22:00:57 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria meeting
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

The next ASWA Victoria meeting will be held Saturday 10th March
beginning at 8.30am with breakfast at the Pancake Parlour, Doncaster
Road Doncaster in the meeting room.

Breakfast & bragging (B & B) - bring your appetite as well as your
photos

Meeting agenda..........

General business
Car stickers are in the final stages of production.

Discussion topics
- recent weather events & the summer we had - all invited to contribute
- tropical cyclones / warm & cold cored lows

Short(!!) videos on the 2000 - 2001 summer season will be shown.  If you
bring a video please ensure that it is short & parked
ready to roll.

Please let me know if there are any other items you would like
included.  If anyone would like to discuss any other topics, please let
me know.

Look forward to seeing you all.  Friends & visitors welcome!

Jane & Paul
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Paul Yole
pyole at australia.edu

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 23:09:16 +1100
From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: ECL Next Week
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

From looking the BoM's four day forecast charts and GASP models, I would
say there is an outside chance of an ECL developing next week. Certainly
hope so - that would be our first in about a year now (not counting the
questionable one that caused one of the snow events last winter).

Andrew.

--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Test - ignore
Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 20:15:10 +1100
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Test
Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au or snowfall at optusnet.com.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Thu, 01 Mar 2001 00:00:16 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Morning Herald and ASWA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

Nick Moir a member of ASWA and also a photographer with Fairfax assures me 
that there will be a colour photograph on the front page of the Sydney 
Morning Herald Thursday of the squall line approaching Sydney. There will 
be a mention of ASWA in the short passage of the article.

On another note, the article about my involvement in storm chasing in the 
Good Weekend will be in the 10th March edition apparently. I hope there has 
been a mention ASWA and ASW in that article as I had mentioned several 
times to put the URL in. We shall see though....

I am off to bed - still ill from the hard  day I had :)

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Thu, 01 Mar 2001 07:08:55 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Morning Herald and ASWA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

Nick Moir a member of ASWA and also a photographer with Fairfax assures me 
that there will be a colour photograph on the front page of the Sydney 
Morning Herald Thursday of the squall line approaching Sydney. There will 
be a mention of ASWA in the short passage of the article.

On another note, the article about my involvement in storm chasing in the 
Good Weekend will be in the 10th March edition apparently. I hope there has 
been a mention ASWA and ASW in that article as I had mentioned several 
times to put the URL in. We shall see though....

I am off to bed - still ill from the hard  day I had :)

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Thu, 01 Mar 2001 09:49:12 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi Paul,

That is excellent news to hear It seems that Darwin was located on the NE 
quadrant of the low so I would say it should still apply to that area. Was 
the tornado from a supercell - mesocyclone detected? Could you post some 
radar images of the event please?

Thanks

Jimmy Deguara


At 08:03 PM 28/02/01 +0930, you wrote:
>Hi all - the severe storm that hit Darwin & suburbs also had a Tornado as
>well!!
>
>Several northern suburbs were damage - the line of the tornado was several
>K's long and about 300m wide.
>
>Doppler radar does show some vortices.
>
>Winds before the storm were 40knot westerlies, and behind the storm were 50
>knot plus Southerlies - some decent shear.
>
>BOM had a damage inspection tour this afternoon - and have confirmed in the
>interim as Tornadic damage.
>
>More details to come......
>
>Paul.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.35.254.2]
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Squall line Pics + a few others
Date: Sat, 03 Mar 2001 00:43:22 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Dear all,

I have uploaded a few pics of Wednesday's squall line along with a few from 
the 30/11/2000 and one from the Hunter in December. I will post chase 
reports and more pics of these events soon.

>>       http://www.wxchase.com/Docs/temp.html

Regsrda,  David
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High temps
Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 17:29:08 +1100
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Hi Blair and all,

Thanks for all of that, it makes for fascinating reading. I'm sure there's
plenty of us on here that enjoy reading these particular posts. It's been so
warm (especially during the night) here in the mountains, warmer than I can
ever recall and indeed one of the warmest summers ever, at least on local
anecdotal evidence, as my records don't go back far enough.

Can anyone tell me the impact such warmth might have on the SST for the lead
into winter? Its pretty warm around the Bight at the moment but there is a
cold-ish large pool of water to the west of Australia, that might move this
way. Lets hope it does as apparently we need average or slightly cooler than
average SST's for a decent winter. I know its a long way out for winter but
anyone got any thoughts for the upcoming season, compared to last year?
There's certainly plenty of moisture around.

Cheers,

Lindsay Pearce



Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au or snowfall at optusnet.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: "Blair Trewin" <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 01, 2001 4:19 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High temps


> >
> > I note that media reports indicate that it was Sydney's 3rd ottest
> > summer ever with ave min temps the principal culprit. How did other
> > centres or Aust / or SE Aust as a whole end up I wonder.  Perhaps,
> > Blair, you have some figures from your great data set.
> > don w
>
> Haven't got the state/regional averages to hand (and the person who
> normally runs them is away this week), but some numbers for the major
> cities:
>
> Melbourne
>
> Mean max 28.1 (3rd; highest 28.3 in 1950-1, 1897-8)
> Mean min 16.9 (highest; previously 16.8, 1980-1)
> Mean 22.5 (highest; previously 22.4, 1980-1)
> Rainfall 57.8 (6th lowest)
>
> Adelaide
>
> Mean max 31.3 (2nd; highest 31.4 1905-6)
> Mean min 18.6 (1st; previously 18.3 1967-8)
> Mean 24.9 (1st; previously 24.7 1897-8)
>
> Sydney
>
> Mean max 27.3 (3rd; highest 28.5 1990-1)
> Mean min 20.2 (equal 2nd with 1997-8; highest 20.7 1990-1)
> Mean 23.7 (3rd; highest 24.6 1990-1)
>
> Interesting that the three highest mean max values (which are not
> affected by urbanisation to the extent that the mins are) have all
> been since 1990.
>
> Canberra
>
> Mean max 28.8 (5th; highest 29.9 1990-1)
> Mean min 14.0 (equal 3rd; highest 14.8 1980-1)
> Mean 21.4 (5th; highest 21.9 1990-1)
>
> Hobart
>
> Mean max 23.2 (2nd; highest 23.3 1894-5)
> Mean min 13.3 (1st; previously 13.1 1970-1)
> Mean 18.2 (1st; previously 17.7 1994-5)
> Rainfall 53.4 (6th; lowest 34.3 1897-8)
>
> The January-February rainfall for Hobart of 12.2mm is the 2nd lowest
> on record, after 9.4 in 1914.
>
> Blair
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>

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X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Sat, 3 Mar 2001 02:27:48 +1100 (EDT)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Broad trough - inland Vic (I need some action)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi all

Like Joy, I'm getting a bit frustrated with Melbourne's weather..... 
....way too fine and sunny, what's the deal with that?!? If it weren't for
people posting pictures of clouds, I'd have forgotted what they look like
:-P

Anyway, looking at the model forecasts for tomorrow, there'll be a broad
trough over Vic/NSW with the AVN model going for CAPE of around 500J/kg
near Echuca, but with surface RH ~20-30%. As I'm pretty desperate for some
action, I'm thinking of heading up that way tomorrow. What do other people
think? Waste of time/money?

I'll check by here again tomorrow morning (provided I get some sleep soon)
to see what's happening.


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 2 Mar 2001 12:15:51 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gustnado
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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 Andrew McDonald wrote:

> Just a question to throw out there amongst you all.  I had a thought
> (provoked through reading it somewhere) that gustnadoes didn't actually
have
> cloud base rotation and that it was more surface vorticity that lead to
> these features.  I'd be interested to hear peoples thoughts/comments on
this
> statement.

You are correct, Andrew.  Theory is that they do not have at least
*appreciable* nor visible cloud base rotation.  Thus, nor are they attended
by a funnel aloft.  The "gustnado" is made visible only by a surface dust
or debris whirl.  Non supercellular tornadoes that do have cloud based
rotation are called either "non supercell tornadoes" or "land-spouts". 
(Some write this as one word, others as two or still others as I have
written it.)

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 07:42:50 +1100
From: Paul Lesiow <fatman at acay.com.au>
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CC: 
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Squall line
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This Line was still really good when it arrived here at Gosford, I was 
trying to capture these really close CG's with my camera when one 
of them hit a transformer a few suburbs away, it exploded and 
made all these fizzing noises and I could see it on fire!  All the lights 
went off in that suburb, then another one hit close and all the power 
went out here for about 2 hours.

Paul

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Nice Sunrise
Date: Fri, 2 Mar 2001 14:22:36 -0700
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
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Hi All,

A comment of the not-so-severe nature: Looked like a beautiful sunrise over
Melbourne today! Hope you all enjoy what looks like is going to be a nice
day

Cheers, Lyle

    |
 - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- --  -    -
    |
    |  Graduate Research Assistant                     /\
    .  Department of Atmospheric Science           _  /  \
    .  Colorado State University                  / \/    \
       ph: +1-(970)-491-7785                     /  /~~~~~~\/\
    .  email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu          /~~/       /  \


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Sat, 3 Mar 2001 10:13:27 +1100 (EDT)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Broad trough - inland Vic (I need some action)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Replying to my original email, with the updated AVN forecast going for
CAPE less than 300, and with a 300+km drive to get there, even I have my
limits. Looks like I'll be watching any action from the comfort of my
computer. 


Cheers

On Sat, 3 Mar 2001, Robert Goler wrote:

> Anyway, looking at the model forecasts for tomorrow, there'll be a broad
> trough over Vic/NSW with the AVN model going for CAPE of around 500J/kg
> near Echuca, but with surface RH ~20-30%. As I'm pretty desperate for some
> action, I'm thinking of heading up that way tomorrow. What do other people
> think? Waste of time/money?
> 
> 
> Cheers
> 
> --
> 
> Robert A. Goler        
> 
> E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
> 
> Department of Mathematics and Statistics
> Monash University
> Clayton, Vic 3800
> Australia
> 
> --
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Peter Matters" <pmatters at eck.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Broad trough - inland Vic (I need some action)
Date: Sat, 3 Mar 2001 11:43:16 +1100
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Robert,
      From Broadford, I cannot see any clouds at all:-((( Temp is currently,
24Deg in the shade.
My SDS continues also:-((( We have a bad summer here also:-(((
Cheers Peter

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Robert Goler
Sent: Saturday, 3 March 2001 10:13
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Broad trough - inland Vic (I need some
action)



Replying to my original email, with the updated AVN forecast going for
CAPE less than 300, and with a 300+km drive to get there, even I have my
limits. Looks like I'll be watching any action from the comfort of my
computer.


Cheers

On Sat, 3 Mar 2001, Robert Goler wrote:

> Anyway, looking at the model forecasts for tomorrow, there'll be a broad
> trough over Vic/NSW with the AVN model going for CAPE of around 500J/kg
> near Echuca, but with surface RH ~20-30%. As I'm pretty desperate for some
> action, I'm thinking of heading up that way tomorrow. What do other people
> think? Waste of time/money?
>
>
> Cheers
>
> --
>
> Robert A. Goler
>
> E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
> Department of Mathematics and Statistics
> Monash University
> Clayton, Vic 3800
> Australia
>
> --
>
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>

--

Robert A. Goler

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Rare SE Pacific TC
Date: Sat, 3 Mar 2001 11:13:28 +0930
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Hi all - seems that there is a rare SE Pacific TC atm - not real strong but
evidence of the strength of the MJO pulse that went through.

Anyone got an idea how likely TC's are in the SE Pacific? I always thought
they were rare......

WTPS31 PHNC 022100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (RITA) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 21.9S2 135.2W1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S2 135.2W1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 23.1S6 135.6W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 24.7S3 136.0W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (RITA), LOCATED 73 NM NORTH OF RIKITEA,
GAMBIER ISLAND, FRENCH POLYNESIA IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH AT 3 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND ENHANCED
INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICT THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
UNCOUPLE FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND IS NOW CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P
(PAULA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Mid Tasman - Whats happening ?
Date: Sat, 3 Mar 2001 12:47:26 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Anyone got any ideas about what is happening 
mid-Tasman Sea at the moment. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Appears to be a developing cloud mass out 
there.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Is it another NW travelling upper trough/ low 
?&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rare SE Pacific TC
Date: Sat, 3 Mar 2001 12:43:45 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Paul

Re TC Rita - quite rare that far east. Usually more common in el-nino years.

However, I have always found it very difficult to get any accurate
up-to-date advisories in this part of the world. I notice that Fiji Met has
improved considerable in that regard this year.

It appears that we are almost full cycle with latest 'west to east' burst of
monsoonal activity. Clusters of storms are starting to becoming more
apparent again closer to Africa/Madagascar.

That would suggest another monsoonal burst over Australia mid-to- late March
if the cycle repeats.

Regards
Simon


----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 03, 2001 12:43 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Rare SE Pacific TC


> Hi all - seems that there is a rare SE Pacific TC atm - not real strong
but
> evidence of the strength of the MJO pulse that went through.
>
> Anyone got an idea how likely TC's are in the SE Pacific? I always thought
> they were rare......
>
> WTPS31 PHNC 022100
> 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (RITA) WARNING NR 003
>    02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
>    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
>     ---
>    WARNING POSITION:
>    021800Z1 --- NEAR 21.9S2 135.2W1
>      MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
>      POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
>      POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
>    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
>    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
>    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
>    REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S2 135.2W1
>     ---
>    FORECASTS:
>    12 HRS, VALID AT:
>    030600Z9 --- 23.1S6 135.6W5
>    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
>    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
>    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
>     ---
>    24 HRS, VALID AT:
>    031800Z2 --- 24.7S3 136.0W0
>    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
>    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
>     ---
> REMARKS:
> TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (RITA), LOCATED 73 NM NORTH OF RIKITEA,
> GAMBIER ISLAND, FRENCH POLYNESIA IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN, HAS
> TRACKED SOUTH AT 3 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
> POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
> IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
> INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND ENHANCED
> INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICT THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
> UNCOUPLE FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND IS NOW CONFINED
> TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
> IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
> PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE
> END OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 12
> FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P
> (PAULA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 3 Mar 2001 12:59:41 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com,
        Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rare SE Pacific TC
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Paul and All.

>Hi all - seems that there is a rare SE Pacific TC atm - not real strong but
>evidence of the strength of the MJO pulse that went through.
>
>Anyone got an idea how likely TC's are in the SE Pacific? I always thought
>they were rare......
<snip>

Whilst they are considered rare, this is the 2nd SE Pacific TC of the
season - the previous one was TC OMA 08F 11P around the 30th 21st of Feb.

The activity of this MJO pulse can be seen more clearly in the FMS area
marine bulletin from http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10140.txt  pasted
below, which shows 2 tropical disturnances along with the 2 TC's.

Regards,
Carl.

>MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
>5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W.
>ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Mar 022000 UTC.
>
>PART 1 : WARNING Hurricane Warning 005 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 02/1911 UTC
>2001.
>              Tropical Cyclone PAULA 09F [960 hPa] was located near 24
>decimal 0
>south 176 decimal 5 west at 021800 UTC. Position Fair. Repeat position 24.0S
>176.5W at 021800 UTC. Cyclone currently moving southeast at about 15 knots and
>weakening.  Expect sustained winds of 85 knots close to the centre
>decreasing to
>75 knots in next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of
>centre over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 150
>miles of centre. Forecast position near 26.4S 174.3W at 030600 UTC and 29.2S
>172.1W at 031800 UTC.
>           This warning cancels and replaces warning 003.
>
>    GALE WARNING 006 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 02/1927 UTC 2001.
>            Tropical Cyclone RITA 10F [995 hPa] located near 21 decimal 7
>south
>135 decimal 0 west at 021800 UTC. Position Fair.Repeat position 21.7S
>135.0W at
>021800 UTC.Cyclone moving south at about 05 knots.Expect sustained winds of 35
>knots within 100 miles of the centre. Forecast position near 22.8S 135.3W at
>030600 UTC and 23.8S 135.8W at 031800 UTC.ALL SHIPS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL
>MILES OF
>CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI AND NMC
>WELLINGTON. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX
>PLUS 679
>720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC DOT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
>       This warning cancels and replaces warning 004.
>
>       ALL SHIPS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
>REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI AND NMC WELLINGTON. VOS REPORTING SHIPS
>USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
>DOT MET
>DOT GOV DOT FJ.
>
>PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Mar 031800 UTC.
>
> TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULA 09F [960 HPA] NEAR 24.0S 176.5W AT 021800 UTC. APART
>FROM HURRICANE WARNING 005 ABOVE EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING
>TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF THE CENTRE. POOR VISIBILITY IN TORRENTIAL RAIN
>AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 350 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
>AND WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. EXPECT
>PHENOMENAL SEAS
>WITHIN 140 MILES OF CENTRE AND VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE.
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE RITA 10F [995 HPA] NEAR 21.7S 135.0W AT 021800 UTC. POOR
>VISIBILITY IN TORRENTIAL RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 MILES OF
>CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. EXPECT HIGH
>SEAS WITHIN 140 MILES OF CENTRE AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200 MILES OF
>CENTRE.
>
>TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F [1001 HPA] NEAR 23S 159W SLOW MOVING. CLOCKWISE WINDS
>15 TO 20 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
>
>TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12F [1003 HPA] NEAR 17S 163W MOVING EAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS.
>CLOCKWISE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
>SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES ELSEWHERE .
>
>TROUGH T1 10S 160E 12S 170E 14S 175E 15S 180 TO TC PAULA SLOW MOVING. POOR
>VISIBILITY IN FREQUENT RAIN AND SOME SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 400 MILES TO
>THE NORTH AND EAST OF T1.
>
>TROUGH T2 12S 173W TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12F TO 17S 160W TO 11F TO 25S 150W
>SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 350
>MILES
>OF T2.
>
>CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 15S 150W 17S 140W TO TC RITA TO 25S 130W SLOW MOVING.
>POOR
>VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CZ1.
>A HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELL SOUTH OF 10S AND BETWEEN T1 AND 165W.
>
>A HEAVY SOUTHERLY SWELL SOUTH OF T1 AND BETWEEN 165W AND 170E.
>
>A MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND EAST OF 140W.
>
>A MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST SWELL IN THE BULLETIN AREA SOUTH OF CZ1.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 03 Mar 2001 14:30:21 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mid Tasman - Whats happening ?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Simon,

Looks like this is a mid to upper level feature possibly responding to
an increase in the jet which heads NE in the direction of / in response
to TC Paula (12P).  It is located at the northern edge of a 300hPa
trough.  What is very interesting is that it seems to have been
'anchored' in the one spot for the past 12 hours!!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

Simon Clarke wrote:

> Anyone got any ideas about what is happening mid-Tasman Sea at the
> moment. Appears to be a developing cloud mass out there. Is it another
> NW travelling upper trough/ low ?  RegardsSimon





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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 03 Mar 2001 14:54:25 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: some new photo's.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi

Got some photos back, and wrote up a little report on the squall line
that hit sydney on Feb 28.
http://www.sydneystormchaser.com/2001/February28.htm

Also a report for the Jan 17 storm chase is up, some people would have
seen this already.
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2001/January17.htm

Matthew Smith

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 03 Mar 2001 15:33:21 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Abigail
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Have a look at the latest coloured IR & visible images of Abigail which
is deepening....
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/abigail.htm

The visible image is stunning!!

Tropical Low over central Kimberley region
Location          :near  19.5S  124.5E about 200 kilometres [110
nautical miles]  southwest of Fitzroy Crossing
Central Pressure  :993 hPa
Recent movement   :westsouthwest at 16 kilometres per hour [8 knots]

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 03 Mar 2001 15:21:19 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: some new photo's.
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<x-html>
<!doctype html public "-//w3c//dtd html 4.0 transitional//en">
<html>
left out an "s" in the first link, sorry !&nbsp; *stupid me*
<p>correct link is :
<br><a href="http://www.sydneystormchaser.com/2001/February28.htm">http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2001/February28.htm</a>
<p>Matt
<p>Matt Smith wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE>Hi
<p>Got some photos back, and wrote up a little report on the squall line
<br>that hit sydney on Feb 28.
<br><a href="http://www.sydneystormchaser.com/2001/February28.htm">http://www.sydneystormchaser.com/2001/February28.htm</a>
<p>Also a report for the Jan 17 storm chase is up, some people would have
<br>seen this already.
<br><a href="http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2001/January17.htm">http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2001/January17.htm</a>
<p>Matthew Smith
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</x-html>
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nice Sunrise
Date: Sat, 3 Mar 2001 16:44:32 +1000
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Hi Lyle, everyone

We also had a spectacular sunrise in Brisbane

http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/satsunrise.jpg

It looked even better on the way into work, but i didn't have time to stop
and take photos





----- Original Message -----
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 03, 2001 7:22 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Nice Sunrise


> Hi All,
>
> A comment of the not-so-severe nature: Looked like a beautiful sunrise
over
> Melbourne today! Hope you all enjoy what looks like is going to be a nice
> day
>
> Cheers, Lyle
>
>     |
>  - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- --  -    -
>     |
>     |  Graduate Research Assistant                     /\
>     .  Department of Atmospheric Science           _  /  \
>     .  Colorado State University                  / \/    \
>        ph: +1-(970)-491-7785                     /  /~~~~~~\/\
>     .  email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu          /~~/       /  \
>
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 03 Mar 2001 23:48:21 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mid Tasman - Whats happening ?
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

Possibly also to do with a high being present over the area, helping to
split/divert the jetstream further north over that section, enhancing a
300mb upper trough that will most probably descend down through the
layers in the next 24hrs.  Might even see a surface low develop early
next week from it - is it just me, or does that look surprisingly
familiar to what happened a couple of weeks ago?  We had an upper level
trough amplifying in the Tasman with the help of a nice Quidge.  The
Quidge got killed by a surface and upper low that developed and moved
westward.  Approximately 6-12hrs before the main development of the
cutoff low itself, we saw a huge arc on the jet reaching will into the
tropics of QLD.  This was enhanced on sat pics due to ex-TC Wylva being
in WA.  Here were are 2 weeks later...ex-TC Abigail in WA, and a similar
situation developing.  Although I don't think the Quidge will be quite
as strong.  But I'll fall over backwards if another big arc in the jet
occurs...

Meanwhile - a few weak Cb's developed on some of the ranges in SE QLD
today.  They were barely getting to 25,000 - but gave a couple of nice
little rain shafts.

AC

Jane ONeill wrote:
> 
> Simon,
> 
> Looks like this is a mid to upper level feature possibly responding to
> an increase in the jet which heads NE in the direction of / in response
> to TC Paula (12P).  It is located at the northern edge of a 300hPa
> trough.  What is very interesting is that it seems to have been
> 'anchored' in the one spot for the past 12 hours!!
> 
> Jane
> 
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> 
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> 
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
> 
> Simon Clarke wrote:
> 
> > Anyone got any ideas about what is happening mid-Tasman Sea at the
> > moment. Appears to be a developing cloud mass out there. Is it another
> > NW travelling upper trough/ low ?  RegardsSimon
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 04 Mar 2001 00:03:39 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bom soundings
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Hi Hank and all,

IMHO - as you said, the mixing of the lower layers is essential for an
accurate estimate ( :) of Convective Available Potential Energy -
especially for those locations near the coast with a heavy influence of
seabreeze moisture.  Frequently the seabreeze moisture boundary is very
shallow - lower 50-100m if that.  In Brisbane (and Sydney is an even
better example), we can have surface DP's around 20C, but 100m above
they may only be 12C for example.  A fair bit of mixing does occur in
these low levels, and the effect can be to "dilute" the moisture in the
boundary/low level layers.  As far as I know, there's no real enforced
method though - I wish there was, as it does lead to some ambiguity. 
Especially when it comes to shallow moist layers.  I believe that mixing
parcel potentials and surface parcel potentials are called different
names - but I still see sites use these interchangably - I do too on
many occasions though!  For example, the AVN site for raw data says
"Surface Lifted Index" however I have never seen it forecast the SLI on
pure surface potential yet - it forecasts the LI using a mixed DP in the
lower levels.

If you watch the obs when it's dry just above the surface - you can
sometimes see the effect of mixing parcels just prior to the onset of
the seabreeze.  For example, the DP might be 18C at 2pm, and just before
the seabreeze I have seen DP's drop to 14-15 for 10-15mins as the
seabreeze creates a mixing boundary ahead of it, mixing down the drier
air.  After the seabreeze "front" goes through, DP's would increase to
19-21C.

I think though seabreeze moisture can be misleading - as seabreeze
moisture tends to be rather shallow, and the rest of the boundary layer
remains dry - thus rendering the surface moisture increase almost
negligble (but still can have an effect).  This is why I prefer the
geostrophic NE'lies coming through over seabreeze NE'lies - as they tend
to be "deeper" (ie, the 980-950mb levels also N-NE'ly), rather than
SE'ly (or worse, SW'ly) just above the surface with a NE'ly seabreeze.

Thanks for explaining the temperatures - I always wondered why
occassionally an odd temperature was plotted that was obvious it was
either going to be colder/warmer than that! 

AC

Hank de Wit wrote:
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> I could add a further word on the grey line parcel on the BOM sounding and
> the resultant Lifted Index (LI), since that is my work. Traditionally on
> web soundings the environmental surface temperature and dewpoint are used
> as the 'baseline' for the lifted parcel. The advantage I suppose is that
> everyone will come up with the same LI value. However we (weather
> forecasters in South Australia - I'm from the SA BOM) preferred to try to
> estimate a typical afternoon parcel, so that the LI would be more
> representative of values at the time of maximum convection. This has the
> effect of producing much lower LI's than you might typically see calculated
> from other Internet sites.
> 
> 1. The method I chose to estimate the 'afternoon' surface dewpoint was to
> simply mix the lowest 50hPa moisture in the trace. This is a fairly
> traditional method which tries to take into account convective mixing and
> some kind of surface evaporation. It works surprisingly well.
> 
> 2. The afternoon temperature is more problematic. We chose originally to
> simply take the temperature at the top of the 150hPa surface layer and
> bring it dry adiabatically to the surface. This does not work in very moist
> situations, so I modified the method slightly. If the line of constant
> mixing ratio of the calculated parcel surface dewpoint crosses the
> environmental temperature sounding within that 150hPa surface layer, the
> temperature of this cross-over point is taken instead of the top of the layer.
> 
> I hope that makes sense. This morning's Sydney trace shows what I mean.
> It's a nice rain saturated trace.
> 
>          http://www.bom.gov.au/products/reg/IDS65024/IDS65024.94767.shtml
>                          (user: bomw007 password: aviation)
> 
> The 18.6C parcel dewpoint is calculated by mixing the environmental
> moisture in the lowest 50hPa. For the temperature I would normally have
> taken the temperature of the sounding 150hPa above the surface (about 14C)
> and taken it adiabatically down to the surface producing a parcel surface
> temperature of 27C or 28C. However the parcel mixing ratio line crosses the
> environmental temperature at 944hPa which is within the 150hPa layer. I
> therefore take this as the LCL thus making the surface parcel temperature
> 23.6C. Looking at the Sydney METARS at showing precipitation and 8 octas of
> cloud and a temperature of 22.7 at 2330, 23.6C is not a bad 'guess'.
> 
> I have found that this method works reasonably well. It fails miserably in
> very dry situations, particularly when solar radiation would not mix the
> lowest 150hPa. Examples are the Antarctic soundings. It's hard though to
> produce a simple method that works over a wide geographic and seasonal
> range. As the LI is mostly used for TS forecasting I have chosen a rule
> that works well in typical Australian convective situations.
> 
> I apologize for the use of jargon which I don't explain, but if this
> monologue gets any longer no-one will read it.
> 
> Cheers
> Hank
> 


-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: New Photos
Date: Sun, 4 Mar 2001 09:49:34 +1000
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Hi all

More photos have been added to the BSCH galleries

http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/new.shtml

Most of them taken by Anthony Cornelius on TDU or during the early November
severe storm outbreak

There are also some video captures from footage of the February 1999 Mary
River flooding in Gympie courtesy of Channel 7 Brisbane



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mid Tasman - Whats happening ?
Date: Sun, 4 Mar 2001 11:11:22 +1100
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Hi Anthony.
The present vorticity in the central Tasman seems to be moving westward. On
the same Latitude east of New Zealand TC Paula is in the process of becoming
extra tropical this system also shows a weak retrograde motion towards
NZ.Watch for the outflow from EX TC Abigail wrap around the developing low
in the Tasman. Also last night the centre of  "ex" TC Abigail showed what
appeared to be a small enclosed eye!!!! which lasted for a few hours, check
your past sat data in infra red,if this is the case one must question the
process that can develop a TC if there is a case that this type of tropical
storm can achieve TC status over land? when all factors are considered if
there is enough moisture low level convergence and upper divergence and this
can overcome the frictional and complexities of being over the land, is it
possible!!!!,.regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 04, 2001 12:48 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mid Tasman - Whats happening ?


> Hi all,
>
> Possibly also to do with a high being present over the area, helping to
> split/divert the jetstream further north over that section, enhancing a
> 300mb upper trough that will most probably descend down through the
> layers in the next 24hrs.  Might even see a surface low develop early
> next week from it - is it just me, or does that look surprisingly
> familiar to what happened a couple of weeks ago?  We had an upper level
> trough amplifying in the Tasman with the help of a nice Quidge.  The
> Quidge got killed by a surface and upper low that developed and moved
> westward.  Approximately 6-12hrs before the main development of the
> cutoff low itself, we saw a huge arc on the jet reaching will into the
> tropics of QLD.  This was enhanced on sat pics due to ex-TC Wylva being
> in WA.  Here were are 2 weeks later...ex-TC Abigail in WA, and a similar
> situation developing.  Although I don't think the Quidge will be quite
> as strong.  But I'll fall over backwards if another big arc in the jet
> occurs...
>
> Meanwhile - a few weak Cb's developed on some of the ranges in SE QLD
> today.  They were barely getting to 25,000 - but gave a couple of nice
> little rain shafts.
>
> AC
>
> Jane ONeill wrote:
> >
> > Simon,
> >
> > Looks like this is a mid to upper level feature possibly responding to
> > an increase in the jet which heads NE in the direction of / in response
> > to TC Paula (12P).  It is located at the northern edge of a 300hPa
> > trough.  What is very interesting is that it seems to have been
> > 'anchored' in the one spot for the past 12 hours!!
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > ASWA - Victoria
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> > Simon Clarke wrote:
> >
> > > Anyone got any ideas about what is happening mid-Tasman Sea at the
> > > moment. Appears to be a developing cloud mass out there. Is it another
> > > NW travelling upper trough/ low ?  RegardsSimon
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Mid Tasman Low
Date: Sun, 4 Mar 2001 14:01:05 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Thanks for the replies, looks like you are all very 
much on the ball !</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Could be quite interesting over the next couple of 
days for northern NSW and SE QLD.&nbsp;Interesting to see how much 'wrap' from 
ex-Abigail outflow this low can achieve. If there is a bit of extra 'wrap', we 
may be in for a bit of decent rain - possibly a sub-tropical hybrid brewing ? 
Although I did get it a rather wrong last time :(&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The repeating&nbsp;pattern of weather over the 
past&nbsp;every couple of weeks or so has been quite remarkable. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Equally remarkable (as some have remarked!) is the 
continued structure of ex-TCs as they have travelled over land this season 
(Wyla, Winsome &amp; Abigail).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Interesting weather event ahead for SEQ,&nbsp;I 
think - please keep me posted on your valuable&nbsp;views.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Thanks again </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>(PS - Anthony - I think the word 'quidge' is rather 
special - keep using it!)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Sat, 3 Mar 2001 23:13:27 -0500
From: David Hart <dhart at world.std.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

test



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Matthew Piper" <mjpiper at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: New E-mail Address
Date: Sun, 4 Mar 2001 16:35:33 +1100
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Hi Everyone,

Just to let you all know I now have a new e-mail address

mjpiper at bigpond.com

Matthew Piper




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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Matthew Piper" <mjpiper at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
	"Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] OFFTOPIC: New E-mail Address
Date: Sun, 4 Mar 2001 16:35:33 +1100
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REPLY-TO: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>

Hi Everyone,

Just to let you all know I now have a new e-mail address

mjpiper at bigpond.com

Matthew Piper





--
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Date: Sun, 04 Mar 2001 20:47:01 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Wierd wet season pattern
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I must say the pattern of this season is nothing like I have recalled in 
the past since I have been observing the weather in regards to the wet 
season. The pattern has development in the Tasman or the Coral Sea and 
movement westward.

Well it is a learning experience for me to add to my memory bank as to what 
happens from now on.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Sun, 04 Mar 2001 21:23:36 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Weather for the next few days
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I had hoped that this low could do something interesting for Sydney but it 
seems that this current ridge is very strong and deep. So all we can hope 
for is shower activity.

However, my question is that if/when the low progresses towards the 
coastline, will it's impact with the land influence it's development 
process and thence direction? I notice that the warm unstable sector is on 
the SE-S side of the low at the moment and the tilting of the low is 
lagging/tilting east as you rise through the atmosphere.

Any comments?

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.19]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Synoptic archive update...
Date: Mon, 05 Mar 2001 11:29:32 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Mar 2001 00:29:33.0149 (UTC) FILETIME=[598510D0:01C0A50B]
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<x-flowed>
Hi every1,

My Australian region synoptic archive has been updated to include February 
2001:

http://wycheproof.www3.50megs.com/

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TS's off coast east of North Stradbroke Island
Date: Mon, 5 Mar 2001 12:47:17 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Everyone</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Noticed there are some reasonable TS's out to sea 
beyond North Stradbroke Island at present (12.45pm). Clearly able to be seen as 
there are not too many shower clouds at present.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>They appear to be moving north in a line (band) 
which is probably wrapping around that low mid-Tasman. I don't think they will 
reach the Moreton Bay however.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Better chance for some decent rain tomorrow in 
far&nbsp;SEQ I think, but it all depends on where that low heads for 
?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Peter Tristram" <petertri at midcoast.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: low
Date: Mon, 5 Mar 2001 18:35:27 +1100
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Torrential rain at times at least from Coffs south and very windy. What's
the situation with the low, does anyone know?
Peter

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Mon, 05 Mar 2001 18:05:40 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Hank de Wit <H.deWit at bom.gov.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bom soundings
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<x-html>
<html>
Hi Anthony and all,<br>
<br>
At 00:03 4/03/2001 +1000, Anthony Cornelius wrote:<br>
<blockquote type=cite cite>Hi Hank and all,<br>
<br>
IMHO - as you said, the mixing of the lower layers is essential for
an<br>
accurate estimate ( :) of Convective Available Potential Energy -<br>
especially for those locations near the coast with a heavy influence
of<br>
seabreeze moisture.&nbsp; Frequently the seabreeze moisture boundary is
very<br>
shallow - lower 50-100m if that.&nbsp; In Brisbane (and Sydney is an
even<br>
better example), we can have surface DP's around 20C, but 100m 
above<br>
they may only be 12C for example.&nbsp; A fair bit of mixing does occur
in<br>
these low levels, and the effect can be to &quot;dilute&quot; the
moisture in the<br>
boundary/low level layers.&nbsp; As far as I know, there's no real
enforced<br>
method though - I wish there was, as it does lead to some ambiguity.
<br>
Especially when it comes to shallow moist layers.&nbsp; I believe that
mixing<br>
parcel potentials and surface parcel potentials are called 
different<br>
names - but I still see sites use these interchangably - I do too 
on<br>
many occasions though!&nbsp; For example, the AVN site for raw data
says<br>
&quot;Surface Lifted Index&quot; however I have never seen it forecast
the SLI on<br>
pure surface potential yet - it forecasts the LI using a mixed DP in
the<br>
lower levels.</blockquote><br>
Yes, I wasn't quite accurate or fair with those other LI calculations on
the web. You are right that they DO mix the moisture in the lowest levels
and that this is extremely important. I had meant to say that we differed
on what we did with the temperature rather than the dewpoint. Most of the
other LI calculators that I have run across simply mix the lowest layer
temperatures. More sophisticated ones don't mix dewpoint and temperature
separately, they calculate the Wet Bulb potential temperature of the
lowest layers, mix them to produce a pressure weighted average, and lift
that. All these methods will produce a LI that is representative of the
atmosphere <u>at the time</u> of the sounding. <br>
<br>
I my LI method I wanted to produce an LI that might be representative of
the afternoon, after insolation has heated the lower atmosphere. So in
effect I'm trying to predict the afternoon max temperature.<br>
<br>
I'm not sure which technique is best. Mine has the advantage of being
explicit about what surface dewpoint and temperature it is using. If the
forecaster wants to play what-if scenarios with either of these
parameters they easily see the effect on the sounding, having a reference
parcel already drawn. The grey-line parcel is kind of like what a
forecaster draws when he/she first starts 'playing' with the
sounding.<br>
<br>
Anyway, thanks for the feedback.<br>
<br>
<blockquote type=cite cite>If you watch the obs when it's dry just above
the surface - you can<br>
sometimes see the effect of mixing parcels just prior to the onset
of<br>
the seabreeze.&nbsp; For example, the DP might be 18C at 2pm, and just
before<br>
the seabreeze I have seen DP's drop to 14-15 for 10-15mins as the<br>
seabreeze creates a mixing boundary ahead of it, mixing down the
drier<br>
air.&nbsp; After the seabreeze &quot;front&quot; goes through, DP's would
increase to<br>
19-21C.<br>
<br>
I think though seabreeze moisture can be misleading - as seabreeze<br>
moisture tends to be rather shallow, and the rest of the boundary
layer<br>
remains dry - thus rendering the surface moisture increase almost<br>
negligble (but still can have an effect).&nbsp; This is why I prefer
the<br>
geostrophic NE'lies coming through over seabreeze NE'lies - as they
tend<br>
to be &quot;deeper&quot; (ie, the 980-950mb levels also N-NE'ly), rather
than<br>
SE'ly (or worse, SW'ly) just above the surface with a NE'ly
seabreeze.<br>
<br>
Thanks for explaining the temperatures - I always wondered why<br>
occassionally an odd temperature was plotted that was obvious it 
was<br>
either going to be colder/warmer than that! <br>
<br>
AC<br>
<br>
Hank de Wit wrote:<br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; Hi all,<br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; I could add a further word on the grey line parcel on the BOM
sounding and<br>
&gt; the resultant Lifted Index (LI), since that is my work.
Traditionally on<br>
&gt; web soundings the environmental surface temperature and dewpoint are
used<br>
&gt; as the 'baseline' for the lifted parcel. The advantage I suppose is
that<br>
&gt; everyone will come up with the same LI value. However we
(weather<br>
&gt; forecasters in South Australia - I'm from the SA BOM) preferred to
try to<br>
&gt; estimate a typical afternoon parcel, so that the LI would be
more<br>
&gt; representative of values at the time of maximum convection. This has
the<br>
&gt; effect of producing much lower LI's than you might typically see
calculated<br>
&gt; from other Internet sites.<br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; 1. The method I chose to estimate the 'afternoon' surface dewpoint
was to<br>
&gt; simply mix the lowest 50hPa moisture in the trace. This is a
fairly<br>
&gt; traditional method which tries to take into account convective
mixing and<br>
&gt; some kind of surface evaporation. It works surprisingly well.<br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; 2. The afternoon temperature is more problematic. We chose
originally to<br>
&gt; simply take the temperature at the top of the 150hPa surface layer
and<br>
&gt; bring it dry adiabatically to the surface. This does not work in
very moist<br>
&gt; situations, so I modified the method slightly. If the line of
constant<br>
&gt; mixing ratio of the calculated parcel surface dewpoint crosses
the<br>
&gt; environmental temperature sounding within that 150hPa surface layer,
the<br>
&gt; temperature of this cross-over point is taken instead of the top of
the layer.<br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; I hope that makes sense. This morning's Sydney trace shows what I
mean.<br>
&gt; It's a nice rain saturated trace.<br>
&gt; <br>
&gt;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/products/reg/IDS65024/IDS65024.94767.shtml" eudora="autourl">http://www.bom.gov.au/products/reg/IDS65024/IDS65024.94767.shtml</a><br>
&gt;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
(user: bomw007 password: aviation)<br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; The 18.6C parcel dewpoint is calculated by mixing the
environmental<br>
&gt; moisture in the lowest 50hPa. For the temperature I would normally
have<br>
&gt; taken the temperature of the sounding 150hPa above the surface
(about 14C)<br>
&gt; and taken it adiabatically down to the surface producing a parcel
surface<br>
&gt; temperature of 27C or 28C. However the parcel mixing ratio line
crosses the<br>
&gt; environmental temperature at 944hPa which is within the 150hPa
layer. I<br>
&gt; therefore take this as the LCL thus making the surface parcel
temperature<br>
&gt; 23.6C. Looking at the Sydney METARS at showing precipitation and 8
octas of<br>
&gt; cloud and a temperature of 22.7 at 2330, 23.6C is not a bad
'guess'.<br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; I have found that this method works reasonably well. It fails
miserably in<br>
&gt; very dry situations, particularly when solar radiation would not mix
the<br>
&gt; lowest 150hPa. Examples are the Antarctic soundings. It's hard
though to<br>
&gt; produce a simple method that works over a wide geographic and
seasonal<br>
&gt; range. As the LI is mostly used for TS forecasting I have chosen a
rule<br>
&gt; that works well in typical Australian convective situations.<br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; I apologize for the use of jargon which I don't explain, but if
this<br>
&gt; monologue gets any longer no-one will read it.<br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; Cheers<br>
&gt; Hank<br>
&gt; <br>
<br>
<br>
-- <br>
Anthony Cornelius<br>
Vice President &amp; Queensland Coordinator of the <br>
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)<br>
(07) 3390 4812<br>
<a href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au/" eudora="autourl">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</a><br>
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&nbsp;-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</blockquote><br>
<br>
<div>Hank de Wit</div>
<div>Regional Computer Manager</div>
<div>Bureau of Meteorology</div>
<div>South Australia</div>
<div><a href="mailto:H.deWit at BoM.gov.au" EUDORA=AUTOURL>mailto:H.deWit at BoM.gov.au</a></div>
<div>ph: 08 8366 2674</div>
</html>

</x-html>
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: FNMOC Yokohama's box of goodies
Date: Mon, 05 Mar 2001 07:53:50 GMT
X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452
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Sorry if someone's blown the trumpet on this site before, but I
haven't seen any recent reference to it on the list. 

The old FNMOC Yokohama US Navy site now appears to be the new Naval
Meteorology and Oceanography Command Yokosuka US Navy site, and the
wonderful archive of hourly visible, water vapour, IR and IR enhanced
satpix is back. I like these satpix because (a) they are all the same
scale and area, so you can line them up and flip between IR/WV/Vis,
(b) they give the best detail to the south of Australia, and (c) the
Vis images give very good detail. The entry page is at
http://207.133.112.37/defaultpl.htm, and click the Australia link. For
satellite archives, follow the satellite archives link (duh!). 

New on the site are QuickScat winds, giving satellite derived
over-ocean winds around Australia. Follow the scatterometry links for
SW Pacific and Southern IO, and note you can click on the resultant
maps for more details. Very handy for Tasman Sea lows.

Also, check out the wave height models for Bass Strait, Timor Sea and
overall Pacific Ocean. 

-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://www.australianweathernews.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 5 Mar 2001 17:59:55 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Re: aus-wx: low
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au
REPLY-TO: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>

Hi Peter.

>Torrential rain at times at least from Coffs south and very windy. What's
>the situation with the low, does anyone know?
>Peter
<snip>

Below is the latest shipping warning from BoM Qld.

If you go to http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm, you will find
links to all warnings, and above that links to a 72 hr satpic animation and
maps.

Regards,
Carl.

>IDW01Q00
>SECURITE
>
>HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
>METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0717 UTC 5 March 2001
>
>GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
>
>= SITUATION
>Low 996 hPa centred near 28.5S 158.3E at 050600 UTC moving slowly
>northwest and
>expected to be near 28S 156E at 061200 UTC.
>= AREA AFFECTED
>South of 26S and west of the low.
>
>= FORECAST
>SW/SE winds increasing to 34/40 knots. Very rough seas and moderate to heavy
>swells.
>= REMARKS
>
>Next warning will be issued by 051300UTC.
>= WEATHER BRISBANE +



--
Visit WeatherZone, the site for weather freaks
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X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 5 Mar 2001 17:59:55 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: low
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Peter.

>Torrential rain at times at least from Coffs south and very windy. What's
>the situation with the low, does anyone know?
>Peter
<snip>

Below is the latest shipping warning from BoM Qld.

If you go to http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm, you will find
links to all warnings, and above that links to a 72 hr satpic animation and
maps.

Regards,
Carl.

>IDW01Q00
>SECURITE
>
>HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
>METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0717 UTC 5 March 2001
>
>GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
>
>= SITUATION
>Low 996 hPa centred near 28.5S 158.3E at 050600 UTC moving slowly
>northwest and
>expected to be near 28S 156E at 061200 UTC.
>= AREA AFFECTED
>South of 26S and west of the low.
>
>= FORECAST
>SW/SE winds increasing to 34/40 knots. Very rough seas and moderate to heavy
>swells.
>= REMARKS
>
>Next warning will be issued by 051300UTC.
>= WEATHER BRISBANE +


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 05 Mar 2001 19:46:11 +1100
From: Keith Barnett <weather at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather for the next few days
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Some of the moisture from Central Australia appears to be wrapping into
it as well. Does that signify anything for us later?

Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> I had hoped that this low could do something interesting for Sydney but it
> seems that this current ridge is very strong and deep. So all we can hope
> for is shower activity.
> 
> However, my question is that if/when the low progresses towards the
> coastline, will it's impact with the land influence it's development
> process and thence direction? I notice that the warm unstable sector is on
> the SE-S side of the low at the moment and the tilting of the low is
> lagging/tilting east as you rise through the atmosphere.
> 
> Any comments?
> 
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> 
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
> 
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> 
> Web Page with Michael Bath
> 
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> 
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> 
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Reply-To: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
	<aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Possible floods for NSW North Coast ?
Date: Mon, 5 Mar 2001 21:31:51 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au

If you believe the AVN and NGP models the coming week will see some very
heavy rain from Port Stephens northwards. The NGP is most radical actually
intensifying the rain into Thursday for the mid north coast, and even Friday
for the central coasts.

There is a questionmark just how much the actual catchments will receive,
but given the already waterlogged condition up that way, floods are
possible.

Getting away from the models and to gut feeling I myself feel a bit like
Jimmy, the high ridge to the south appears very strong, even today the
showers just aren't doing it south of that bight north of Newcastle ( which
by the way in my mind is one of those 'climate' barriers that often
separates weather conditions).

If the NGP scenario comes true watch for higher rainfalls in the Illawarra
then the prognosis suggest, any system coming in from the NE dumps along the
escarpment around Macquarie Pass to Kiama.

The sea is already up today, a good 6-8ft NE swell running, it actually came
up during yesterday.


Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com



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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Possible floods for NSW North Coast ?
Date: Mon, 5 Mar 2001 21:31:51 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

If you believe the AVN and NGP models the coming week will see some very
heavy rain from Port Stephens northwards. The NGP is most radical actually
intensifying the rain into Thursday for the mid north coast, and even Friday
for the central coasts.

There is a questionmark just how much the actual catchments will receive,
but given the already waterlogged condition up that way, floods are
possible.

Getting away from the models and to gut feeling I myself feel a bit like
Jimmy, the high ridge to the south appears very strong, even today the
showers just aren't doing it south of that bight north of Newcastle ( which
by the way in my mind is one of those 'climate' barriers that often
separates weather conditions).

If the NGP scenario comes true watch for higher rainfalls in the Illawarra
then the prognosis suggest, any system coming in from the NE dumps along the
escarpment around Macquarie Pass to Kiama.

The sea is already up today, a good 6-8ft NE swell running, it actually came
up during yesterday.


Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.19]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: El Nino triggers...
Date: Tue, 06 Mar 2001 10:20:40 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Mar 2001 23:20:41.0164 (UTC) FILETIME=[E513F0C0:01C0A5CA]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi every1,

Further to the recent discussion on wind-triggers for El Nino...this article 
in the latest AMS Bulletin:

http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS/newsltr/nl_03_01.html#elnino

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Tue, 06 Mar 2001 12:29:49 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TS's off coast east of North Stradbroke Island
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Hi Simon,

I saw these yesterday afternoon after uni from Toowoomba.  Also some
Cb's and storms today - looks even better than yesterday, some of the TS
out to sea have looked quite solid at times!  I also saw a little vapour
vorticity on the M4/M6 junction earlier today, and had a rumble of
thunder here about 40mins ago from a weak Cb passing through giving a
mod shower of rain!

Steep lapse rate in the low levels to 830mb - shear 30-35kn throughout,
possibly increasing during the day.  Suggestive of some possible high
shear tornadoes - although better to the south.

AC 

> Simon Clarke wrote:
> 
> Everyone
> 
> Noticed there are some reasonable TS's out to sea beyond North
> Stradbroke Island at present (12.45pm). Clearly able to be seen as
> there are not too many shower clouds at present.
> 
> They appear to be moving north in a line (band) which is probably
> wrapping around that low mid-Tasman. I don't think they will reach the
> Moreton Bay however.
> 
> Better chance for some decent rain tomorrow in far SEQ I think, but it
> all depends on where that low heads for ?
> 
> 
> 
> Regards
> Simon

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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Date: Tue, 06 Mar 2001 14:05:56 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Perth Heatwave
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Another hot day in Perth today, at 1:50pm its 37.7C, which makes it the 5th
day in a row with temps over 37C.

Makes it even more remarkable considering we didn't have one temp over 37C
in January or February, which was the first time in about 40 years, and now
we get 5 days in a row.

Jacob
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 06 Mar 2001 16:49:55 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Weather Warning for SE QLD and I recorded a Thunderday!!!
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Hi all,

Guess what!!??  I HEARD TWO RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY -
WAAAHHHHOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  I also recorded HAIL
(yes HAIL!!) at 12:34pm this afternoon, most of it melted as it hit the
ground, a few larger small stones lasted 1-2mins.  The first rumble of
thunder was just before 12pm, the 2nd rumble in a weak storm around
3:55pm - I thought I saw a flash of lightning but thought "Nah, it
couldn't have been" - sure enough 10-12 seconds later a comforting
booming sound accomanied it!!!

Boy do I have SDS <g>

Also - severe weather warning for SE QLD south of Noosa!

IDW60Q00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Brisbane Office 

 


TOP PRIORITY
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
At 1605 EST on Tuesday the 6th of March 2001

For coastal areas south of Noosa. 

A Low with central pressure of 995 hPa was located 400 km east of
Brisbane and
moving slowly west.

Dangerous surf conditions are being experienced along the open southeast
coast.
People are advised to stay out of the water until the seas moderate.

Water levels on tomorrow morning's high tide could exceed the highest
tide of
the year. Low-lying seaside areas may experience some salt water
flooding on
tomorrow morning's high tide.

Wind gusts may reach 90 km/hr on exposed headlands and elevated areas.
 
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued at 10 pm.
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Weather Warning for SE QLD and I recorded a Thunderday!!!
Date: Tue, 6 Mar 2001 17:25:59 +1100
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Anthony

I can confirm two rumbles of thunder !!!! and enough heavy rain and squally
winds to stop everyone in our office from working for a short while.
(Although that is not too hard for some)

Everything has calmed down now though.

It looks as though that little low has peaked and is starting to lose its
organization. However it still has a nice cluster of (quite cold-top) TS's
near its centre. On present track could bring a few more thundery rumbles to
SEQ overnight and tomorrow.

The best action appears to be mid to north NSW.

Bring it on !


Simon



----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 06, 2001 5:49 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Weather Warning for SE QLD and I recorded a
Thunderday!!!


> Hi all,
>
> Guess what!!??  I HEARD TWO RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY -
> WAAAHHHHOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  I also recorded HAIL
> (yes HAIL!!) at 12:34pm this afternoon, most of it melted as it hit the
> ground, a few larger small stones lasted 1-2mins.  The first rumble of
> thunder was just before 12pm, the 2nd rumble in a weak storm around
> 3:55pm - I thought I saw a flash of lightning but thought "Nah, it
> couldn't have been" - sure enough 10-12 seconds later a comforting
> booming sound accomanied it!!!
>
> Boy do I have SDS <g>
>
> Also - severe weather warning for SE QLD south of Noosa!
>
> IDW60Q00
> BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> Queensland Region
> Brisbane Office
>
>
>
>
> TOP PRIORITY
> SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
> Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
> At 1605 EST on Tuesday the 6th of March 2001
>
> For coastal areas south of Noosa.
>
> A Low with central pressure of 995 hPa was located 400 km east of
> Brisbane and
> moving slowly west.
>
> Dangerous surf conditions are being experienced along the open southeast
> coast.
> People are advised to stay out of the water until the seas moderate.
>
> Water levels on tomorrow morning's high tide could exceed the highest
> tide of
> the year. Low-lying seaside areas may experience some salt water
> flooding on
> tomorrow morning's high tide.
>
> Wind gusts may reach 90 km/hr on exposed headlands and elevated areas.
>
> The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued at 10 pm.
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 06 Mar 2001 19:01:27 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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Subject: aus-wx: Cb spotted in Victoria (on Sunday)
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Evening all,

SDS is having an effect in Victoria as well as Queensland, and I didn't
even get to hear thunder on Sunday.....but I did spot this Cb from my
'storm spotting' position at the side of Lake Mulwala - nothing happened
till 1630AEDST then I got this little beauty - no lightning but rather
photogenic especially when reflecting the setting sun.

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_03_01.htm

Jane


--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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Date: Tue, 6 Mar 2001 20:18:28 +1100 (EDT)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cb spotted in Victoria (on Sunday)
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Looks like you bagged the only thing going around on that day.

Vis:
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_03_04/vicvisMar04-1830.gif

IR:
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_03_04/vicirMar04-1930.gif

Wagga broad radar:
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_03_04/Waggabroad_1930.gif


Cheers

On Tue, 6 Mar 2001, Jane ONeill wrote:

> Evening all,
> 
> SDS is having an effect in Victoria as well as Queensland, and I didn't
> even get to hear thunder on Sunday.....but I did spot this Cb from my
> 'storm spotting' position at the side of Lake Mulwala - nothing happened
> till 1630AEDST then I got this little beauty - no lightning but rather
> photogenic especially when reflecting the setting sun.
> 
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_03_01.htm
> 
> Jane
> 

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

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Date: Tue, 06 Mar 2001 23:23:38 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Next lot of photos
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

Nothing special about this lot of photographs but here goes..

http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd.html

I am starting to get a Sydney version of the SDS virus :)

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Tue, 6 Mar 2001 23:52:26 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: SUMMARY: November Tropical Cyclone Summary
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                  MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY

                              NOVEMBER, 2000

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  ***********************************************************************

                         NOVEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

  --> Late-season Eastern Pacific tropical storm makes landfall in Mexico
  --> Philippines affected by typhoon and tropical storm
  --> Southern India struck by tropical cyclone

  ***********************************************************************

              ***** Feature of the Month for November *****

                  ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS OF 2000
                                (Part 2)
                  ------------------------------------

     This is Part 2 of a three-part feature detailing cyclonic systems
  of 2000 in the Atlantic which were either subtropical storms or
  depressions or else exhibited some of the features of subtropical
  cyclones.  The information presented below is taken from material
  supplied by David Roth of HPC.  Please refer to Part 1 in the October
  summary for more background information and some explanations and
  caveats.

     This month's feature looks at some of the named tropical cyclones of
  2000 which, in David's opinion, exhibited some subtropical features
  at some point during their histories.    For three of these systems
  (Florence, Leslie, Michael) official NHC "best tracks" designate some
  portion of the respective tracks as either a subtropical depression
  or subtropical storm; for Alberto, Gordon, and Helene they do not.

     I am repeating here the table of subtropical/hybrid systems which
  David provided.     (Numbers in parentheses following the storm
  designation refer to explanatory notes below.)

     I.     Subtropical Depression       May 19-25
    II.     Alberto  (1)                 August 14-16
   III.     Subtropical Storm  (2)       August 28-30
    IV.     Subtropical Depression       September 10-11
     V.     Florence  (3)                September 10-12
    VI.     Gordon  (1)                  September 17-18
   VII.     Helene  (1)                  September 24-25
  VIII.     Subtropical Storm  (2)       September 30-October 3
    IX.     Leslie  (3)                  October 4-8
     X.     Michael  (3)                 October 14-17
    XI.     Subtropical Storm  (4)       October 25-28


  (1) The official NHC "best tracks" do not treat any portion of Alberto,
      Gordon, or Helene as subtropical.   In general, once a tropical
      cyclone has been named, NHC treats it as a tropical system through-
      out the remainder of its life--both operationally and in post-
      analysis--even if at some point it exhibited some subtropical
      features.

  (2) According to Jack Beven, these two systems possibly could qualify
      as subtropical storms pending a careful analysis of all the
      available data.  For the time being they should be regarded as
      possible subtropical storms.

  (3) Subtropical portions of the tracks of Florence, Leslie, and Michael
      are designated in the "best tracks" for these cyclones.  The dates
      of their subtropical phases, however, might not necessarily agree
      with those David has assigned above.

  (4) This storm has already been officially recognized as a subtropical
      storm by TPC/NHC.

     Since Hurricane Florence, Tropical Storm Leslie, and Hurricane
  Michael have already been covered in the monthly summaries, and the
  official storm reports are available on TPC/NHC's website, these
  storms will not be mentioned further here.     Regarding Alberto,
  Gordon, and Helene, it should be understood that officially, in
  post-seasonal analysis, TPC/NHC did not designate any portion of the
  tracks of these cyclones as subtropical storms.  However, all three
  of them did exhibit, at some point in their lives , a few of the
  features which often characterize subtropical cyclones.  Following a
  practice dating back to the early years of working with subtropical
  systems (e.g., Tropical Storm Gilda of October, 1973), if an already-
  named tropical cyclone transforms into a subtropical cyclone and merits
  public advisories, the system will continue to be treated operationally
  as a tropical cyclone.   In some cases (e.g., Gilda, 1973, and Klaus,
  1984), the subtropical portion of the track was so-designated in the
  "best track" file; in other cases (e.g., Amy, 1975, and Gordon, 1994)
  the "best track" defines the storm as tropical for its entire history.

  II.  Alberto, August 14-16.  Hurricane Alberto had already wandered the
  Atlantic for ten days prior to the 14th.  On that day the cyclone moved
  into 24 C water as it approached the 40th parallel, convection became
  shallow, the eye disappeared, and a cold front was swinging around its
  western periphery but the cool and dry air had not invaded its
  immediate center.     This combination of features gave Alberto an
  appearance somewhat similar to that of a subtropical storm.  Its north-
  ward motion was blocked by a slow-moving ridge to its north.  On the
  15th bands of dry air encircled the center as the system began to loop
  back to the south towards warmer waters with an eye-like feature, but
  its convection remained shallow.  On the 16th bursts of deep convection
  developed near the immediate center and the stratocumulus shield on its
  western periphery became multicellular, indicative of the warmer waters
  it was moving over and an overall warming of its environment.  Alberto
  regained a true eye late that day with a warming core.  The storm was
  upgraded to hurricane status (for the third time) and lived several
  more days before finally escaping into the westerlies.  (NOTE: The
  August global summary contains a discussion of Alberto written by
  Eric Blake, and the official storm report on the hurricane, authored
  by Jack Beven, is available on TPC/NHC's website.)

  VI.  Gordon, September 17-18.  While Gordon was a hurricane in the
  southeastern Gulf of Mexico, an upper-level vorticity maximum became
  co-located over the surface circulation, totally exposing the surface
  center in the first morning visible images on the 17th.  However, the
  surface winds were slow to decrease and the pressure remained
  relatively low until landfall as the system fed off this increase in
  baroclinic instability (with slightly colder air aloft) while lurking
  over 31 C water; hence, the suggestion that Gordon was at least partly
  subtropical.  By the 18th it had hooked up with a frontal boundary in
  the Southeast, ultimately occluding later that day.  That completed
  Gordon's transition to an extratropical cyclone.  (NOTE: The September
  global summary contains a discussion of Gordon, and the official storm
  report on the system, authored by Stacy Stewart, is available on
  TPC/NHC's website.)

  VII. Helene, September 24-25.  A tropical storm that made landfall near
  Fort Walton Beach, Florida, on the night of the 21st/22nd, Helene
  became linked with a cold air wedge (stationary front) by the evening
  of the 22nd, transforming the cyclone into an extratropical LOW.  As
  Helene was moving out to sea near the Outer Banks, it left the frontal
  boundary behind and quickly redeveloped into a subtropical cyclone,
  embedded within deep southwesterly flow ahead of a frontal system in
  New England.  Its circulation was elongated northeast/southwest and
  convection was limited in its eastern half.  As it moved along the Gulf
  Stream, it fed off its latent baroclinicity (temperature gradient),
  deepening into a 55-kt subtropical storm on the night of the 24th/25th.
  Once the system had moved east of Nova Scotia, it moved into colder
  waters and frontogenesis occurred with the cyclone quickly occluding
  on the 25th.  (NOTE: The September global summary contains a discussion
  of Helene, and the official report on the storm, co-authored by Lixion
  Avila and Eric Blake, is available on TPC/NHC's website.  It should be
  noted that while during Helene's Atlantic Ocean phase the cyclone was
  not exactly a classic tropical storm, the decision was made in post-
  storm analysis to treat this portion of the cyclone's history as a
  tropical storm.)

  ***********************************************************************

                           ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for November: No tropical cyclones

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for November:  1 tropical storm

  NOTE:  Much of the information presented below was obtained from the
  TPC/NHC discussion bulletins issued with every regular advisory (CPHC
  for locations west of 140W.)  All references to sustained winds imply
  a 1-min averaging period unless otherwise noted.


             Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for November
             ------------------------------------------------

     In the Northeast Pacific basin the month of November averages a
  tropical storm or hurricane about once every four years (the exact
  average for the Eastern Pacific east of 140W for the period 1971-1999
  was 0.28).  This year's Tropical Storm Rosa was the first November
  cyclone in the NEP basin since Hurricane Rick in 1997.   Like Rick,
  Rosa moved northeastward and made landfall in southeastern Mexico,
  but unlike the former storm, Rosa did not reach hurricane intensity.
  The tropical cyclone peaked at 55 kts but had weakened to a minimal
  tropical storm by the time of landfall.

     The following report on Rosa was written by John Wallace of San
  Antonio, Texas.     A very special thanks to John for writing the
  discussion for me.


                      Tropical Storm Rosa  (TC-19E)
                              3 - 8 November
                      -----------------------------

     Tropical Storm Rosa was a rare November storm, of which the NEP
  averages only 2.8 per decade--less than the Atlantic rate of roughly
  4.4 per decade.

     Intermittent, strong convection persisted in the southwest Caribbean
  through much of the month of October.  A tropical disturbance formed
  north of Panama beginning on 28 October.  Its convection increased, and
  hints of cyclonic structure were apparent, resulting in a closed LOW
  being depicted on the surface analyses by the evening of the 29th.
  The LOW generated strong convection and maintained fair cyclonic
  structure as it drifted westward.  It weakened substantially early on
  the 31st as it crossed the Isthmus of Panama, but the LOW apparently
  reconsolidated under a cluster of thunderstorms west of Panama.
  The LOW tracked slowly westward under the influence of a mid-level
  ridge to its north, and had organized enough to warrant its upgrade to
  Tropical Depression Nineteen-E at 2100 UTC on 3 November when it was
  located approximately 475 nm southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico.

     The depression was slow to intensify, though SSTs and shear were
  most favorable.  A report of a 30-kt MSW and 12-foot seas from ship
  WMBK, just east of the center at 0000 UTC on the 3rd, justified a
  slight increase in the estimated MSW to 30 kts on the second advisory.
  For the most part, though, satellite MSW estimates fluctuated between
  25 and 30 kts, based on mercurial convective organization and
  sometimes conflicting data.

     The cyclone's organization finally increased enough to justify its
  being upgraded to Tropical Storm Rosa at 1500 UTC on 5 November, though
  the forecaster on duty at the time acknowledged that the classification
  was dubious.  The storm was centered by this time about 350 nm south-
  southwest of Salina Cruz.  At the same time, Rosa's track, roughly due
  west earlier, began to make an expected northwestward turn in response
  to a strong mid- to upper-level trough to its west.     The tropical
  storm's organization increased significantly between its upgrade and
  0900 UTC on 6 November, when it reached its estimated peak MSW of
  55 kts about 300 nm south-southeast of Acapulco.  Around this time the
  cyclone's track turned ever more to the north toward the Mexican coast.
  As Rosa seemed to flirt with the possibility of reaching hurricane
  intensity, at 1500 UTC on 6 November the government of Mexico issued a
  hurricane watch for the coast extending from Acapulco to Puerto Angel.
  Interestingly, at this time there was speculation from one of the
  forecasters that Rosa's MSW might have been as low as 40 kts, based on
  Quickscat data that conflicted with Dvorak intensity estimates.  Rosa
  attained its estimated minimum CP of 993 mb at 2100 UTC on 6 November
  which it maintained through the next advisory.

     The storm stalled briefly at 0300 UTC on 7 November and began its
  recurvature as it turned to the north, then north-northeast.  A
  tropical storm warning was added to the hurricane watch area at
  0900 UTC on the 7th, while the watch/warning zone was extended east to
  Salina Cruz at 1500 UTC.  Rosa's cloud pattern began to show the
  effects of southwesterly shear from the same trough responsible for its
  recurvature and a weakening trend began.   The hurricane watches were
  dropped, while tropical storm warnings were raised for the coast from
  Punta Maldonado to Tonal at 1800 UTC on the 7th.     A reconnaissance
  mission investigated Rosa around 1600 UTC on the 7th; they found a MSW
  of 50 knots and a CP of 1000 mb, in excellent agreement with Dvorak
  estimates, which also averaged 50 knots.  It's worth noting that the
  reconnaissance crew also found a closed, 20-nm eyewall; there was no
  hint of this in satellite imagery and was unusual for a storm that was
  well-below hurricane intensity.

     Rosa made landfall on the Mexican coast near Puerto Angel at
  0600 UTC on 8 November with a MSW of 40 knots and CP of 1001 mb.  Rosa
  was only the second November storm since 1971 to make landfall in
  Mexico (the other being Hurricane Rick in 1997).    Already weakening
  when it made landfall, Rosa was quickly obliterated by the rough
  terrain.  It was downgraded to a depression at 0900 UTC, at which point
  all warnings were discontinued.    The final advisory was issued at
  1500 UTC on 8 November, only nine hours after landfall, with the
  dissipating depression's center located inland about 75 km north of
  Salina Cruz.

     No casualties or significant damage are known from Rosa's landfall;
  if any come to light, the information will be reported in a future
  summary.

     The official storm report on Tropical Storm Rosa, prepared by
  Richard Pasch, is available on TPC/NHC's website at the following
  URL:  <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2000rosa.html> .

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for November: 1 tropical depression
                         1 tropical storm
                         1 typhoon

  NOTE: Most of the information on each cyclone's history presented in
  the narrative will be based upon JTWC's advisories, and references to
  winds should be understood as a 1-min avg MSW unless otherwise noted.
  However, in the accompanying tracking document I have made comparisons
  of coordinates with JMA (Japan) and the Philippines (PAGASA) when their
  positions differed from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.  A special
  thanks to Michael V. Padua, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, for
  sending me the PAGASA and JMA tracks.

     In the title line for each storm I plan to reference all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:    JTWC's depression number, the
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their area
  of responsibility.


              Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for November
              ------------------------------------------------

     The Republic of the Philippines was the target of both of the named
  tropical cyclones forming in the Northwest Pacific basin during
  November.  Early in the month Typhoon Bebinca/Seniang followed a track
  across southern Luzon almost identical to that taken by Typhoon
  Xangsane/Reming only a week earlier.    And, like the earlier storm,
  Bebinca caused a considerable amount of damage and several dozen
  fatalities.    Late in the month Tropical Storm Rumbia crossed the
  southern Philippines and was responsible for a dozen or so fatalities.

     Another tropical depression (TD-32W) formed on 8 November roughly
  100 nm east-northeast of the northern tip of Luzon.  This depression
  formed in an environment of southerly vertical shear which prevented
  it from strengthening into a tropical storm.   The system initially
  moved northward, later curving to the northeast.   By 1800 UTC on the
  8th the shear was increasing and dry air was invading the depression's
  central region, indicating that extratropical transition was underway.
  The system moved just north of Okinawa around 1200 UTC on 9 November
  and by 1800 UTC had become an extratropical LOW about 150 nm east-
  northeast of the island.

     Finally, as the month opened, Typhoon Xangsane was skirting Taiwan
  as it raced northeastward and had transitioned into an extratropical
  gale southwest of Japan by 2 November.   See the October summary for
  the complete report on Typhoon Xangsane.


               Typhoon Bebinca/Seniang  (TC-31W / TY 0021)
                         31 October - 8 November
               -------------------------------------------

  Bebinca: contributed by Macau, is the name of a Macanese milk pudding
           served in the Portuguese restaurants of Macau

     The STWO issued by JTWC at 0600 UTC on 28 October mentioned that an
  area of convection had formed about 330 nm east of Yap.  Synoptic data
  indicated a developing LOW within the monsoon trough.  The disturbance
  migrated to the west but remained poorly organized with multiple
  circulation centers evident in the monsoon trough.  By the 30th the
  area of convection was located about 270 nm southeast of Yap and was
  looking healthier.  There was an increase in deep convection associated
  with cross-equatorial flow south of the LLCC and some isolated deep
  convection was developing near the center; therefore, JTWC upgraded the
  development potential to Fair.  By 2200 UTC the main area of convection
  was located near Palau and JTWC issued a Formation Alert as the system
  had continued to show signs of development and was located within an
  environment favorable for intensification.

     By 0000 UTC on 31 October convection had become much better
  organized about the LLCC and JTWC initiated warnings on TD-31W.  The
  center of the depression was located approximately 85 nm northwest of
  Palau or about 475 nm east of the Philippine island of Mindanao.  Also
  at 31/0000 UTC PAGASA began issuing bulletins on the depression, naming
  it Seniang.   Tropical Depression Seniang was initially moving to the
  west-northwest at a fairly good clip (around 15-20 kts), but the
  forward motion gradually slowed.  PAGASA upgraded Seniang to a tropical
  storm at 31/1200 UTC while JTWC maintained the system as a 25-kt
  depression through 1800 UTC.   The center had been partially-exposed
  but by 1800 UTC a convective band was beginning to wrap into the LLCC.
  By 0000 UTC on 1 November satellite intensity estimates had reached
  35 kts and microwave imagery revealed deep convection organizing over
  the LLCC, so JTWC upgraded TD-31W to a tropical storm.  At the same
  time JMA upgraded the depression to a tropical storm and named it
  Bebinca.  Bebinca's center was located roughly 230 nm east-northeast
  of Surigao on the northern tip of Mindanao.

     At the time it was named Tropical Storm Bebinca was moving north-
  westward, but the storm's heading changed more to west-northwesterly
  with time as it came under the steering influence of the subtropical
  ridge to its north.   The cyclone's organization continued to improve
  and by 1800 UTC the 1-min avg MSW had reached 55 kts with the storm
  centered about 115 nm east-southeast of Catanduanes Island.  (JMA's
  maximum 10-min avg wind estimate was 50 kts while PAGASA's was slightly
  higher at 60 kts.)   Bebinca exhibited one interesting feature which
  Mark Lander pointed out:  around 01/1200 UTC the storm blew up a large
  Central Cold Cover (CCC) with cloud top temperatures colder than -80 C
  and in some limited areas colder than -90 C.   At 0000 UTC on the 2nd
  the storm's center was located about 40 nm east-southeast of
  Catanduanes Island and moving west-northwestward at 12 kts.   PAGASA
  upgraded Bebinca/Seniang to a 65-kt typhoon at this juncture, but JTWC
  did not upgrade the storm to typhoon status until 0600 UTC.  A SSM/I
  pass at 01/2137 UTC revealed a developing eye and animated water
  vapor imagery depicted improved single-channel outflow south of the
  system.

     The center of Bebinca/Seniang apparently passed over or just north
  of Catanduanes around 0300 UTC--at 0600 UTC it was centered about
  50 nm northwest of the island or about 45 nm north-northeast of Naga
  City (where my associate Michael Padua lives).   JTWC upgraded Bebinca
  at 0600 UTC to a typhoon with the MSW estimated at 75 kts.   (PAGASA
  reported the maximum 10-min avg wind at 70 kts while JMA was lower at
  55 kts.)   Animated visible imagery had depicted rapid intensification
  during the previous six hours with a well-developed primary spiral
  convective band developing over the northern semicircle and contracting
  around the vortex center.  By 1200 UTC on 2 November Bebinca/Seniang's
  center was located about 65 nm northwest of Naga City or 90 nm east
  of Manila--just off the coast of Luzon.  JTWC upped the MSW estimate
  to 85 kts while JMA upgraded the storm to a 65-kt (10-min avg) typhoon.
  A recent observation from Daet (which would have been a short distance
  south of the cyclone's center) indicated sustained 1-min avg winds of
  43 kts with a SLP of 994.5 mb.  Outflow was impressive in all quadrants
  and enhanced infrared imagery revealed a small, cloud-filled eye.

     The observation from Daet in the preceding paragraph was the only
  synoptic observation given in any JTWC warning as the typhoon was about
  to make landfall.  Michael Padua of Naga City (13.6N, 123.2E) made
  hourly observations with his instrumentation during the approach and
  passage of Bebinca/Seniang.  The lowest pressure Michael recorded was
  994.6 mb at 02/0700 UTC while the highest 1-min avg MSW of 30 kts from
  the southwest occurred at 02/0900 UTC when the typhoon's center was
  46 nm north-northwest of his site.  A peak gust of 39 kts was recorded
  at 0934 UTC.  Also, at 0900 UTC, Daet reported a peak gust of 65 kts
  with an attendant pressure reading of 986.7 mb.   At PAGASA's Bicol
  River Basin Flood Forecasting Center near Camaligan, 235 mm of rain was
  recorded in the 48 hours ending at 02/0000 UTC.  More information can
  be found at:  <http://www.geocities.com/taifun00/bebinca_obs.htm> .

     The eye of Typhoon Bebinca/Seniang apparently made landfall along
  the east coast of Luzon shortly before 1800 UTC at a point about 39 nm
  (72 km) east of Manila at its peak intensity (per JTWC) of 90 kts.
  The storm moved westward across a narrow part of Luzon island, passing
  just south of Manila and across Manila Bay, and by 03/0000 UTC was
  beginning to emerge into the South China Sea at a point about 33 nm
  (61 km) slightly south of due west of Manila.  JMA had by this time
  downgraded Bebinca to a 55-kt tropical storm, but JTWC still maintained
  the MSW at 90 kts based on current satellite intensity estimates.
  Convection had rapidly weakened but some new central convection was
  redeveloping southwest of the LLCC.   By 0600 UTC the cyclone's center
  was over water about 85 nm west of Manila.    Deep convection had
  weakened significantly during the previous six hours due to interaction
  with Luzon, especially in the northern semicircle.   JMA downgraded
  Bebinca to a 45-kt tropical storm while PAGASA and JTWC still main-
  tained the storm as a typhoon.  JTWC's 1-min avg MSW estimate was
  80 kts, but the remarks in the warning indicated that this was based
  on satellite intensity estimates ranging from 55 to 90 kts.

     It seems likely that JMA's lower intensity estimate was probably
  more on target as JTWC abruptly dropped the MSW to 55 kts on the next
  warning.  (PAGASA kept Bebinca/Seniang at 65-kts until 1800 UTC.)
  Most of the remaining convection had decoupled from the LLCC and
  was located to the east along the windward side of the Zambales
  Mountain range.  As Bebinca began to move northwestward and gradually
  pulled away from the Luzon landmass, convection began to redevelop near
  the LLCC.   The system was under good diffluence with weak to moderate
  vertical shear and was forecast to intensify for a couple of days
  until it began to encounter stronger shear to the north.   Throughout
  4 November and into the 5th, JTWC and JMA held their respective MSW
  estimates at 55 kts while PAGASA's 10-min avg MSW was 60 kts.  The
  storm had moved out of Manila's AOR by 05/0000 UTC.   Bebinca became
  quasi-stationary around 0000 UTC about 200 nm west-northwest of
  Lincayen in the Philippines.  A 04/2219 UTC microwave image showed
  what appeared to be a banding eye, but within 30 minutes the convection
  had weakened and the eye had filled.

     By 05/0600 UTC Bebinca had begun a slow northward trek west of
  Luzon with convection still pulsing near the center.  Based on Dvorak
  intensity estimates of 65 kts, JTWC upgraded Bebinca once more to
  typhoon status at 1200 UTC when it was centered approximately 275 nm
  southeast of Hong Kong.   (JMA concurrently upped their 10-min avg
  sustained wind estimate to 60 kts, but never reclassified Bebinca as
  a typhoon.)   Outflow over the system was good, but upper-level winds
  were continually advecting the convection to the northeast.  Cloud
  tops were beginning to warm by 06/0000 UTC but convection was still
  well-organized around the center.  However, twelve hours later animated
  satellite imagery indicated that the convection was rapidly dissipating
  while the northeastern quadrant was being sheared to the northeast.
  JTWC downgraded Bebinca to a 45-kt tropical storm at 1200 UTC on the
  6th with the center approximately 190 nm southeast of Hong Kong.

     Further reduction to minimal tropical storm intensity took place
  at 1800 UTC, and Bebinca was downgraded to a depression at 0000 UTC
  on the 7th.  The LLCC was fully-exposed with well-defined low-level
  cumulus cloud lines to the south of the center.  The decaying storm
  had been tracking generally northward into a weakness in the sub-
  tropical ridge, but a strengthening low-level ridge turned Bebinca
  westward during its final depression stage.   Some occasional minor
  bursts of convection were noted, but the system continued to wind
  down.  JTWC issued the final warning at 08/0000 UTC, placing the
  poorly-defined and convection-free LLCC about 80 nm southwest of
  Hong Kong, just off the southern Chinese coast.

     Like Xangsane/Reming a week earlier, Typhoon Bebinca/Seniang left
  a trail of death and destruction across Luzon.  The highest death toll
  noted by the author was 43 with nine persons reported missing.  Of the
  43 fatalities, 22 died in landslides, 14 drowned, four died when a
  concrete wall collapsed on them in Calamba, Laguna, and the others died
  when they were hit by flying objects.   Floodwaters inundated portions
  of the metropolitan Manila area, forcing 630,000 persons to flee their
  homes.  Government offices, schools and financial markets closed, all
  airline flights from the capital were cancelled, and power blackouts
  occurred in much of the city.


             Tropical Storm Rumbia/Toyang  (TC-33W / STS 0022)
                         27 November - 8 December
             -------------------------------------------------

  Rumbia: contributed by Malaysia, is the name of a type of palm tree
          which yields sago.  The tree commonly grows along riverbanks,
          in swampy areas, or in areas near water.

     The first "rumblings" of Rumbia can be traced to an area of
  convection which developed around 25 November very deep in the tropics
  about 450 nm southeast of Palau.  A weak LLCC was present with some
  convection to the north, and the disturbance was located beneath light
  diffluent flow.   Over the next couple of days the disturbance moved
  westward and by 27/0600 UTC was located about 80 nm east of Palau.
  JTWC upgraded the development potential to Fair, but PAGASA had begun
  issuing bulletins on the system at 0000 UTC, naming it Tropical
  Depression Toyang, and by 0600 UTC had already upgraded it to a
  tropical storm.   JMA classified the system as a tropical depression
  at 1800 UTC, and JTWC issued a Formation Alert at 1900 UTC.  A recent
  QuikScat pass had shown a LLCC embedded in the monsoon trough with
  10-15 kt winds near the center but stronger winds in the gradient
  flow along the periphery.

     JTWC initiated warnings on the system as TD-33W at 0000 UTC on the
  28th with the center estimated to be about 400 nm east of Mindanao.
  The remarks indicated that QuikScat data showed 20-25 kt winds near the
  center with stronger winds along the northern periphery.  The MSW for
  the first warning was reported as 30 kts.  This implies that the system
  still had significant monsoon depression characteristics.   The author
  has noted that often with these larger systems originating in the
  monsoon trough PAGASA is ahead of JTWC and JMA in initiating warnings
  and upgrading to tropical storm status.  Perhaps it is because of the
  great potential for disastrous flooding such systems may pose that
  PAGASA does not draw such a fine distinction between monsoon and
  "tropical" depressions/storms.   JMA upgraded 33W/Toyang to a tropical
  storm at 0600 UTC, naming it Rumbia, and JTWC followed suit six hours
  later.   Dvorak intensity estimates had reached 35 kts, although the
  stronger winds were still located in the gradient flow to the north.

     At 1800 UTC JTWC abruptly increased the MSW estimate to 50 kts as
  convection had continued to intensify and organize around the LLCC.
  Interestingly, the satellite intensity estimates upon which the MSW
  was based were 35 and 45 kts.  Rumbia was centered at this time about
  325 nm east-southeast of Surigao on the northern tip of Mindanao.
  The storm was moving slowly in a general westerly direction,
  occasionally jogging to the southwest or remaining quasi-stationary.
  Throughout 29 November Tropical Storm Rumbia/Toyang maintained its
  intensity of 50 kts (45 kts 10-min avg) in the face of moderate
  easterly vertical shear which kept the deeper convection sheared to
  the western half of the storm.   JTWC and PAGASA both increased their
  respective estimated MSWs to 55 kts at 30/0000 UTC as the convection
  had increased in areal extent.  The center of Rumbia/Toyang was then
  located approximately 130 nm east of the city of Surigao and moving
  west-northwestward at 11 kts.  Multi-spectral imagery around 0600 UTC
  depicted low-level cumulus cloud lines east of the deep convection;
  therefore, the LLCC was estimated to be beneath the eastern edge of
  the convection.

     Tropical Storm Rumbia/Toyang reached the vicinity of the small
  island of Siargao (just off northeastern Mindanao) around 1200 UTC
  on 30 November at its peak estimated intensity of 55 kts.  The exact
  path of the storm as it moved through the southern Philippines is a
  little uncertain.   PAGASA's and JTWC's positions were in fairly good
  agreement, and using JTWC's synoptic-hour coordinates, the center of
  Rumbia/Toyang moved from near Siargao northwestward and was located
  in the Leyte Gulf around 30/1800 UTC.  By 0000 UTC on 1 December the
  center had crossed Leyte and was near San Isidro on extreme north-
  western Leyte.  The cyclone then seemed to cross Masbate and tiny
  Tablas islands, and by 01/1200 UTC had reached the Tablas Strait just
  east of Mindoro where it remained quasi-stationary for several hours.
  However, at 0000 UTC on the 2nd JTWC relocated the storm's center
  well to the south of the previous warning position--south of Mindoro
  and west of Panay, so the actual track taken by Rumbia's center may
  have been to the south of that described above, possibly crossing
  Panay Island and even the northern portions of the islands of Cebu
  and Negros.

     The JTWC warning at 30/1800 UTC noted that the storm displayed a
  large, asymmetric cloud shield about 360 nm in diameter and that the
  LLCC was near the eastern edge of the deep convection about 45 nm into
  the cloud shield.  The MSW was still maintained at 55 kts--the remarks
  noted that one satellite intensity estimate of 77 kts had been
  received.  Rumbia/Toyang gradually weakened as it moved through the
  Philippine archipelago.   It is interesting to note that PAGASA had
  downgraded the storm to a 30-kt depression by 01/0000 UTC while JTWC's
  and JMA's MSW estimates were still 50 kts and 40 kts (10-min avg),
  respectively.   JTWC had reduced the system to a minimal tropical storm
  by 1800 UTC, noting that the remaining deep convection was moving
  off the coast of Mindoro into the South China Sea.   The next JTWC
  warning effected the above-mentioned relocation and also downgraded
  Rumbia to a tropical depression.   The LLCC was very weak and both
  visible and microwave imagery revealed multiple circulation centers.

     The weakening depression continued to move westward into the South
  China Sea.  Its diffuseness and difficulty in tracking is evidenced
  by the disparity between some of JTWC's and PAGASA's coordinates:  the
  PAGASA position for 0600 UTC was over 100 nm to the west-northwest of
  JTWC's locaiton, and the difference was over 150 nm for the next two
  warnings.  The 02/1800 UTC bulletin was PAGASA's final one on Toyang.
  JTWC continued to issue warnings through 0000 UTC on 4 December as
  Rumbia sailed rather quickly westward across the South China Sea.  The
  03/1800 UTC warning had placed the depression's center about 275 nm
  east-southeast of Cam Rahn Bay, Vietnam, but the (temporarily) final
  warning at 04/0000 UTC relocated the center to a point approximately
  60 nm south-southeast of the previous position--roughly 195 nm west-
  northwest of the southwestern tip of Palawan Island.   Convection
  near the system was sheared 90 nm to the northwest of the LLCC and
  the strongest convection was being caused by convergence in the
  northeast monsoon.   The depression was forecast to track southwestward
  and dissipate over water due to increasing cold air entrainment and
  increasing vertical shear.

     The remnants of Rumbia continued to drift westward across the
  South China Sea, and the STWO issued at 05/0600 UTC rated the potential
  for redevelopment as Poor.   However, the disturbance suddenly re-
  intensified and JTWC resumed warnings at 05/1200 UTC, directly
  upgrading the system to Tropical Storm Rumbia, based on satellite
  intensity estimates of 25 and 35 kts.    A SSM/I pass depicted deep
  convection confined to the western semicircle of the system.  Rumbia
  was centered about 450 nm southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam, or roughly
  halfway between the Vietnamese coast and northern Borneo.  This modest
  re-intensification of Rumbia likely happened because the disturbance
  had made its way under an upper-level ridge axis.    The cyclone was
  embedded in a monsoon trough extending eastward from a broad, LLCC
  over the southern Bay of Bengal.

     The rejuvenated cyclone tracked slowly west-northwestward and north-
  westward toward southeastern Vietnam.  The center remained partially-
  exposed with convection sheared to the west of the LLCC.   By 1800 UTC
  on 6 December the center had become fully-exposed with convection
  sheared 80 nm to the west, so JTWC downgraded Rumbia once more to a
  tropical depression.  The center was located approximately 200 nm
  east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and was tracking slightly
  south of due west.   By 07/0000 UTC all satellite intensity estimates
  had fallen below 35 kts and the system continued to slowly weaken as
  it drifted off the Vietnamese coast.   No convection remained near the
  LLCC after around 1200 UTC and JTWC issued the final warning at 1800
  UTC with the weak center near the extreme southern tip of Vietnam.

     Press reports indicated that 12 persons lost their lives in the
  Philippines due to Rumbia/Toyang with seven people missing.  One
  report mentioned winds of 74 kts--the source of this report was not
  given.  If the report is valid, the 74 kts likely represents peak
  gusts.  There is no indication that Rumbia reached typhoon intensity,
  but gusts of 74 kts could reasonably be expected with a 55-kt MSW.
  Nine towns were flooded in northern Mindanao, and two days after the
  storm, more than 4100 individuals remained in temporary shelters while
  more than 1700 homes and several bridges were damaged or destroyed by
  the flooding and landslides.

     After writing the bulk of this report, I discovered in my files some
  e-mail from Mark Lander I'd saved which is interesting.  Mark reported
  that, like Bebinca a few weeks earlier, Rumbia had blown a Central Cold
  Cover (CCC) with extremely cold cloud tops.   For a period of several
  hours on 28 November (based on replacement tables on METSAT processing
  equipment) the coldest pixels in the image yielded temperatures of
  -97.2 C.  At 1100 UTC two pixels yielded a temperature of -100.9 C.
  This is very close to the record of -102 C reported by Ebert and
  Holland in an analysis of Tropical Cyclone Hilda near Australia in
  1990.   According to Mark, some typical characteristics of CCCs, at
  least in the NWP basin, are: (1) they usually begin to form at local
  sunset, (2) they reach their greatest size and coldest temperatures
  near local midnight, and (3) they usually occur in weaker cyclones
  in the 45-65 kt intensity range.

  NOTE:  I e-mailed Mike Padua and asked him if PAGASA makes any
  distinction between monsoon depressions and tropical depressions.  Mike
  checked with some contacts he has in PAGASA and was told that they do
  not use the term "monsoon depression" in any warnings or bulletins.
  Some such systems are referred to as "active low-pressure areas".

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for November:  1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity

  NOTE:  The tracking and intensity information for North Indian Ocean
  Basin tropical cyclones is based primarily upon operational warnings
  from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy
  (JTWC) at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.  Occasionally some information may
  be gleaned from the daily Tropical Weather Outlooks and other bulletins
  issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the
  WMO's RSMC for the basin.

     The MSW are based on a 1-min averaging period, which is used by
  all U. S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone
  warnings.  For synoptic observations in the North Indian region,
  both 10-min and 3-min average winds are employed, but IMD makes no
  attempt to modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone
  intensity; hence, a 1-min avg MSW is implied.  In the North Indian
  basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system is
  well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status within
  48 hours.


             North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for November
             -------------------------------------------------

     The Bay of Bengal produced its third tropical cyclone of the fall
  transition season late in November.  The system was also the first to
  reach hurricane intensity in the NIO basin this year.    Tropical
  Cyclone 03B made landfall in southeastern India as a minimal hurricane
  where it caused some scattered damage.     The system weakened while
  crossing India but underwent some modest re-intensification in the
  Arabian Sea, eventually dissipating several hundred miles east of the
  Somalian coast during the first week of December.


                        Tropical Cyclone  (TC-03B)
                         26 November - 6 December
                        --------------------------

     The beginnings of Tropical Cyclone 03B can be traced to a LLCC which
  developed on 25 November approximately 200 nm west of Phuket, Thailand.
  A 25/1443 UTC SSM/I pass depicted a fully-exposed LLCC with deep
  convection sheared west of the center.  The disturbance moved westward
  across the Bay of Bengal with convection gradually improving in
  organization and increasing in areal extent.   JTWC issued a Formation
  Alert at 26/0700 UTC with the center of the system estimated to be
  about 700 nm east-southeast of Madras, India.  Outflow was improving
  as the depression moved toward the subtropical ridge axis extending
  over the Bay.  The maximum winds were estimated at 25-30 kts, so in
  the NWP basin the disturbance would likely have been treated as a
  tropical depression.  (Another tropical disturbance was present at
  the same time in the Arabian Sea and had been given a Fair development
  potential, but this system failed to develop further.)

     JTWC initiated warnings on TC-03B at 1200 UTC on 26 November with
  an initial warning intensity of 35 kts.  Deep convection had weakened
  some during the previous six hours but the system remained well-
  organized with deep convection located over the LLCC.  The cyclone
  was located about 540 nm east of Sri Lanka and was tracking west-
  northwestward at 9 kts.   Over the next couple of days the system
  continued to march to the west-northwest and gradually strengthened.
  By 1200 UTC on the 27th the MSW had increased to 45 kts, and a
  27/1126 UTC SSM/I pass depicted a primary convective band feature
  wrapping in toward the center from the southwest.   Microwave imagery
  around 28/0000 UTC depicted a well-defined eye feature and the MSW
  estimate was increased to 55 kts in the 28/0000 UTC JTWC warning.

     The eye feature persisted and at 1200 UTC the MSW was increased to
  65 kts, making TC-03B the first cyclone to reach hurricane intensity
  in the NIO basin this year.   The storm was centered approximately
  100 nm southeast of Madras and had turned to a westward course.
  University of Wisconsin CIMSS charts indicated moderate vertical shear
  continuing over the system.   The shear likely was one factor which
  prevented the cyclone from intensifying any further beyond minimal
  hurricane force.      The storm continued moving due westward and
  maintained its 65-kt MSW until landfall in India at 1000 UTC on
  29 November near Cuddalore, about 30 km south of Pondicherry.  The
  cyclone weakened quickly over land; by 30/1200 UTC the majority of
  the convection had moved offshore into the Arabian Sea and the LLCC
  was difficult to locate.   The weakening depression continued west-
  ward and had moved into the Arabian Sea by 0600 UTC on 1 December.
  A few diurnal bursts of convection had been noted north of the LLCC,
  but JTWC anticipated that the system would continue to dissipate and
  issued the final warning at 0600 UTC.

     The STWO issued at 1800 UTC on 2 December indicated that the
  remnants of TC-03B were still weak but that outflow was good and the
  system had a fair chance of redeveloping.   By 0600 UTC on the 3rd
  the disturbance had undergone some re-intensification with convection
  increasing in all quadrants.  JTWC re-initiated warnings on TC-03B,
  placing the center about 600 nm southwest of Bombay, India, and moving
  westward quickly at 17 kts.   The MSW was set at 35 kts, based on
  Dvorak intensity estimates of 30 and 45 kts.  The system was well-
  organized with good outflow aloft.  However, the intensification trend
  was short-lived--at 1800 UTC the MSW was decreased to 30 kts.  The
  LLCC remained well-defined but convection had weakened.  The cyclone
  was tracking west-southwestward across the Arabian Sea and was still
  under a favorable upper-level environment, so some modest strengthening
  was forecast for the next 12 hours or so before dry air and increasing
  vertical shear were expected to begin weakening the system.

     However, the cyclone never regained tropical storm intensity and
  continued to weaken as it sailed west-southwestward across the Arabian
  Sea.  A SSM/I pass at 04/1342 UTC depicted only isolated convection
  near the LLCC.   Another SSM/I pass about 12 hours later revealed
  a fully-exposed LLCC with no deep convection.  JTWC issued the final
  warning (for the second time) on the system at 0600 UTC on the 5th
  with the weak center located about 400 nm east-southeast of the "Horn"
  of Somalia.  The residual LOW continued to drift westward toward the
  Somalian coast for another couple of days but showed no signs of
  redevelopment.

     Near the port town of Cuddalore, where the cyclone made landfall,
  all roads leading to the town were rendered impassable.  Many trees
  were uprooted and numerous homes lost their roofs.   Many thousands
  of persons were evacuated from low-lying areas in the Indian states
  of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.   Six deaths, mainly drownings,
  were reported in association with the storm, and Indian authorities
  reported that 43 fishermen were missing at sea.  Heavy rains inundated
  thousands of acres of rice paddies in the Sirkali and Papanasam areas.
  Some of the highest storm-total rainfall amounts reported were:
  Colerron - 235 mm, Sirkali - 201 mm, Manalmedu - 168 mm, and
  Papanasam - 120 mm.

  ***********************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for November: 1 tropical depression

     The primary sources of information upon which the narrative is based
  are the warnings issued by the TCWC on La Reunion Island, associated
  with Meteo France, which is the RSMC for the Southwest Indian Ocean
  basin.  However, cyclones in this region are named by the sub-regional
  centres on Mauritius and Madagascar with longitude 55E as the dividing
  line between their respective areas.  La Reunion only advises these
  centres regarding the intensity of tropical systems.   References to
  sustained winds should be understood as implying a 10-min averaging
  period unless otherwise stated.   In the accompanying tracks file
  some position comparisons have been made with JTWC's positions, and
  warnings from JTWC were used as a source of 1-min avg MSW estimates.


          Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for November
          -----------------------------------------------------

     An increase in convective activity was noted across the South Indian
  Ocean in November, perhaps due to an active phase of the Madden-Julian
  Oscillation.  An area of convection had developed by the 9th several
  hundred miles east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  A LLCC developed and
  JTWC issued a Formation Alert on the system on 11 November and the
  first warning on TC-02S at 12/0000 UTC.  La Reunion also initiated
  bulletins on the system at 0600 UTC, numbering it Tropical Disturbance
  02 for the SWI basin.    The system, although weak, was tenacious,
  remaining on the charts in one form or another until the 20th.   The
  first JTWC warning located the center about 450 nm east-southeast of
  Diego Garcia.  Over the next several days the disturbance drifted
  somewhat erratically eastward, remaining quasi-stationary for several
  hours at times.  Eventually the system began to move more to the south
  or south-southwest--the final bulletin from La Reunion at 18/1800 UTC
  placed the center about 875 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia.

     JTWC issued one warning (12/1200 UTC) estimating the MSW (1-min avg)
  at 35 kts, and the concurrent La Reunion warning indicated gales were
  occurring in the southwestern quadrant; however, the next JTWC warning
  at 13/0000 UTC indicated that the system was rapidly weakening and
  that no more warnings would be issued unless re-intensification
  occurred.  La Reunion treated the disturbance as a tropical depression
  from 12/1200 UTC through 13/1200 UTC with maximum 10-min avg winds
  near the center estimated at 30 kts, but it was downgraded back to a
  tropical disturbance at 1800 UTC and bulletins discontinued.  Bulletins
  were re-instated 24 hours later when the system appeared to be getting
  better organized once more, and the disturbance was re-upgraded to a
  tropical depression at 15/0000 UTC for a 12-hour period.  However, at
  1200 UTC the system was downgraded once more and was carried as just
  a tropical disturbance for three more days.    JTWC issued several
  Formation Alerts on the system between the 15th and 19th but never
  issued any more warnings.  (Note:  A track was provided for this system
  in the November cyclone tracks file.)

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for November: 1 tropical LOW

     The primary sources of information for Australian Region tropical
  cyclones are the warnings and bulletins issued by the three TCWCs
  at Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane.   Information gleaned from JTWC's
  warnings is used as a supplement for times when it was impossible to
  obtain Australian bulletins and for comparison purposes.  References
  to sustained winds should be understood as being based on a 10-min
  averaging period unless otherwise noted.


                Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean
                      Tropical Activity for November
                ------------------------------------------

     During late November the monsoon trough was becoming established to
  the north and west of Australia.  The western region was more active,
  and for some days there were several weak monsoonal LOWs in the Indian
  Ocean section of the trough.  One of these became sufficiently active
  for the Perth TCWC to issue Tropical Cyclone Advices for Christmas
  Island.   At 0700 UTC on 28 November the tropical LOW was located about
  60 nm east-southeast of Christmas Island.   Over the next couple of
  days the system drifted generally in an eastward direction.    By
  0400 UTC on the 29th the LOW was about 250 nm east of the island and
  the final advice was issued.   The LOW continued to drift eastward and
  by 0400 UTC on 30 November was located about 300 nm east of Christmas
  Island.  There were indications that the system might be about to
  strengthen into a cyclone so a High Seas Gale Warning was issued.
  However, by 1000 UTC the LOW appeared to be weakening and the gale
  warning was cancelled.   (Note:  A track was provided for this system
  in the November cyclone tracks file.)

     A special thanks to Carl Smith, who lives on the Gold Coast of
  Queensland, for sending me a report on this tropical LOW from which
  some of the above material was taken.

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for November: No tropical cyclones

  ***********************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones

  ***********************************************************************

                              EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  ***********************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  in the following manner:

       (a) FTP to:  hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.176.206]
       (b) Login as: anonymous
       (c) For a password use your e-mail address
       (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data)
       (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii)
       (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name )
           (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using
           November as an example:   nov00.tracks)
       (g) To exit FTP, type: quit

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries,
  they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD.  The
  summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature:  nov00.sum, for
  example.

    Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Tom Berg, Michael
  Pitt, and Rich Henning):

    <http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    <http://www.typhoon2000.com> OR <http://www.geocities.com/taifun00/>
    <http://www.hurricanealley.net/>
    <http://www.qisfl.net/home/hurricanemike>
    <http://www.met.fsu.edu/gsc/Docs/Grads/henning/cyclones/>

     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:

    <http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>


                   TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     I have discovered that JTWC now has available on its website the
  complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 1999 (1998-1999
  season for the Southern Hemisphere).  Also, ATCRs for earlier years
  are available also.

     The URL is:  <http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2000 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, official storm reports for all the 2000
  Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available.

     The URL is:  <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>

  Prepared by: Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  garyp at alaweb.com
  Phone:  334-222-5327 (nights & weekends) / 850-882-2594 (weekdays)

  ***********************************************************************


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: FINALLY something to photograph (was TS's off coast east of North Stradbroke Island)
Date: Wed, 7 Mar 2001 02:19:36 +1000
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Hi everyone

Others have given a run down of the day already so i'll just paste some
URL's

http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_01.jpg (offshore cb complex)
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_02.jpg (ditto)
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_03.jpg (ditto)
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_04.jpg (shelf cloud in eastern suburbs of
bris)
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_05.jpg (ditto)
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_06.jpg (awesome sunset - managed to
squeeze a shot in from work before being dragged back inside by my ears)



----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 06, 2001 12:29 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TS's off coast east of North Stradbroke Island


> Hi Simon,
>
> I saw these yesterday afternoon after uni from Toowoomba.  Also some
> Cb's and storms today - looks even better than yesterday, some of the TS
> out to sea have looked quite solid at times!  I also saw a little vapour
> vorticity on the M4/M6 junction earlier today, and had a rumble of
> thunder here about 40mins ago from a weak Cb passing through giving a
> mod shower of rain!
>
> Steep lapse rate in the low levels to 830mb - shear 30-35kn throughout,
> possibly increasing during the day.  Suggestive of some possible high
> shear tornadoes - although better to the south.
>
> AC
>
> > Simon Clarke wrote:
> >
> > Everyone
> >
> > Noticed there are some reasonable TS's out to sea beyond North
> > Stradbroke Island at present (12.45pm). Clearly able to be seen as
> > there are not too many shower clouds at present.
> >
> > They appear to be moving north in a line (band) which is probably
> > wrapping around that low mid-Tasman. I don't think they will reach the
> > Moreton Bay however.
> >
> > Better chance for some decent rain tomorrow in far SEQ I think, but it
> > all depends on where that low heads for ?
> >
> >
> >
> > Regards
> > Simon
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Severe Weather Warning for SE QLD and I recorded a Thunderday!!!
Date: Wed, 7 Mar 2001 08:14:40 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0
Importance: Normal
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I heard them say on the radio that there is a low pressure system
approaching from the sea. Is this somewhat similiar to what a cyclone is
before it becomes a cyclone? Also what chance of a decent thunderstorm in
the next few days?

David

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Anthony
Cornelius
Sent: Tuesday, 6 March 2001 4:50 PM
To: Australian Weather Mailing List
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Weather Warning for SE QLD and I recorded a
Thunderday!!!


Hi all,

Guess what!!??  I HEARD TWO RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY -
WAAAHHHHOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  I also recorded HAIL
(yes HAIL!!) at 12:34pm this afternoon, most of it melted as it hit the
ground, a few larger small stones lasted 1-2mins.  The first rumble of
thunder was just before 12pm, the 2nd rumble in a weak storm around
3:55pm - I thought I saw a flash of lightning but thought "Nah, it
couldn't have been" - sure enough 10-12 seconds later a comforting
booming sound accomanied it!!!

Boy do I have SDS <g>

Also - severe weather warning for SE QLD south of Noosa!

IDW60Q00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Brisbane Office




TOP PRIORITY
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
At 1605 EST on Tuesday the 6th of March 2001

For coastal areas south of Noosa.

A Low with central pressure of 995 hPa was located 400 km east of
Brisbane and
moving slowly west.

Dangerous surf conditions are being experienced along the open southeast
coast.
People are advised to stay out of the water until the seas moderate.

Water levels on tomorrow morning's high tide could exceed the highest
tide of
the year. Low-lying seaside areas may experience some salt water
flooding on
tomorrow morning's high tide.

Wind gusts may reach 90 km/hr on exposed headlands and elevated areas.

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued at 10 pm.
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: "aus-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storms in Thailand
Date: Tue, 6 Mar 2001 22:50:48 -0000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.3018.1300
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Everybody on the list - </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A question has cropped on uk.sci.weather, does 
anyone know what kind of severe storm events occur in Thailand, theres a report 
of an isolated&nbsp;right mover on the list with masses of CG and no rain, had 
assumed it was pulse but now I'm not so sure - </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="news://uk.sci.weather">news://uk.sci.weather</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Any supercell events reported in that part of the 
world or is it just too near the equator - ??</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Les (UK)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Tue, 6 Mar 2001 18:29:11 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storms in Thailand
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id SAA12933
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Les,

I have been there before concerning their need for weather radar.  Their
primary application was heavy thunderstorms and heavy rain.  It is always
hot there or so they say.  I could not rule out supercells but I do think
they are rare.  However, all this is off the top of my head, so to speak.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Weather Warning for SE QLD and I recorded a Thunderday!!!
Date: Wed, 7 Mar 2001 10:27:31 +1100
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Hi David.
The low pressure system walloping around off the southeast QLD coast appears
rather intense, it however a mid latitude type of circulation and does not
show the characteristics of a tropical type low pressure,this season has
been very unusual in the near tropical areas of the north Tasman and
southern Coral sea with a high number of mid latitude style low pressure
developments, however the key to this odd season can be found in the upper
atmosphere as most of these lows have been generated within vorticity
occurring in the higher layers mainly between 500hpa and 300hpa(18.000ft to
30.000ft).regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: David Findlay <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 07, 2001 9:14 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Severe Weather Warning for SE QLD and I recorded a
Thunderday!!!


> I heard them say on the radio that there is a low pressure system
> approaching from the sea. Is this somewhat similiar to what a cyclone is
> before it becomes a cyclone? Also what chance of a decent thunderstorm in
> the next few days?
>
> David
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Anthony
> Cornelius
> Sent: Tuesday, 6 March 2001 4:50 PM
> To: Australian Weather Mailing List
> Subject: aus-wx: Severe Weather Warning for SE QLD and I recorded a
> Thunderday!!!
>
>
> Hi all,
>
> Guess what!!??  I HEARD TWO RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY -
> WAAAHHHHOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  I also recorded HAIL
> (yes HAIL!!) at 12:34pm this afternoon, most of it melted as it hit the
> ground, a few larger small stones lasted 1-2mins.  The first rumble of
> thunder was just before 12pm, the 2nd rumble in a weak storm around
> 3:55pm - I thought I saw a flash of lightning but thought "Nah, it
> couldn't have been" - sure enough 10-12 seconds later a comforting
> booming sound accomanied it!!!
>
> Boy do I have SDS <g>
>
> Also - severe weather warning for SE QLD south of Noosa!
>
> IDW60Q00
> BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> Queensland Region
> Brisbane Office
>
>
>
>
> TOP PRIORITY
> SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
> Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
> At 1605 EST on Tuesday the 6th of March 2001
>
> For coastal areas south of Noosa.
>
> A Low with central pressure of 995 hPa was located 400 km east of
> Brisbane and
> moving slowly west.
>
> Dangerous surf conditions are being experienced along the open southeast
> coast.
> People are advised to stay out of the water until the seas moderate.
>
> Water levels on tomorrow morning's high tide could exceed the highest
> tide of
> the year. Low-lying seaside areas may experience some salt water
> flooding on
> tomorrow morning's high tide.
>
> Wind gusts may reach 90 km/hr on exposed headlands and elevated areas.
>
> The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued at 10 pm.
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Dean McWhinney" <mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC:im backkkkkk
Date: Wed, 7 Mar 2001 10:52:33 +1100
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Hi all im back how  are we i love the list anyway cyall later peoples

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Severe Weather Warning for SE QLD and I recorded a Thunderday!!!
Date: Wed, 7 Mar 2001 10:25:23 +1000
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http://beta.weatherzone.com.au/latest/QLD-sat-latest.JPG

Still looks pretty cool even though it is not a real cyclone. Now maybe the
stupid tv stations will say it is a MINI-cyclone.

David


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Wed, 7 Mar 2001 12:18:54 +1100 (EDT)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: PICTURES: Darwin Waterspout 7th Feb (fwd)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



This just came from a friend who works in the Darwin BoM. I think the
first image of this sequence was posted by someone else earlier on this
list, but I can't find that email, so apologies if this image sequence was
already posted.

http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/waterspout_010207.gif

This actually occurred on the 7th Feb, so I'm not sure what he means by
'hot off the press'.

--------------------------------------
Hi all !.

This is 'hot off the press' cause I witnessed it just recently. But I
thought I'd tell my fellow 'Class of 2000 Alumni' ASAP.

It was really special, very striking. Much much much better than that
dubious tornado (?) we saw out of our 15th floor lecture window in
Melbourne last year. 

I was quite lucky to catch this event, and it really was a case of being
in the right place at the right time. If it would have occurred 10 minutes
later, I would have been out of the office, and doing my laps at the local
pool (lunchtime entertainment at the Darwin RFC !!).

As it was, I was detained. At about 12.15pm (0245 Z), one of the guys in
the office cried "Waterspout". Sure enough, looking out the window (on the
3rd floor of the RFC), and in a WNW direction we saw it. It was such a
delicate structure, like the germination of some rare meteorological
orchid, sprouting out of the cloud base. A distinct and very narrow
funnel,grey in appearance and coming out of a 3 octa Cu base at 1400 ft.
When I first saw it, it was about 2/3 of the way down to the sea. (we were
looking out over Casuarina Beach, and the ocean beyond).  I suspect that
when we spotted it, it was already decaying. We could clearly see the
inside of the spout, with its distinct inner and outer walls. After about
a minute (that seemed to last for ever), the funnel moved back up into the
grey cloud base. Feeling somewhat deprived, I returned to my desk.


But mother nature was in a sweet mood on that day, for only a few minutes
later came the cry 'it's reforming'.  We all rushed to the window, to
witness another funnel, like the first, but much shorter. This quickly
decayed back into the cloud base (the same base as for the first episode).
However, there remained a brilliant white broad projection which hung like
a vaporous bulge out of the cloud base, and made me suspect 'there's more
coming'. 

Sure enough, out of the center of this bulge projected a very narrow
funnel, much narrower than all the others. It reminded me of a 'feeder'
lightning bolt, as it scouts a path to the surface, for the main
discharge. As this feeder funnel (translucent grey in colour) touched the
water surface, the funnel grew in width, and Cinderella like - changed
into the most beautiful and brilliant white waterspout. This lasted for
about 2-3 minutes. Examining it more closely, I could see whisps of vapour
spiralling around the waterspout, and being drawn up towards the base of
the clouds. At the end of its lifespan, the spout faded back into grey,
and performed its final retreat into the cloud base.

An amazing episode. Luckily one of the Met's used our digital camera to
take lots of pikkies of this. It will be published on our website, and I
will let you know of this,when it is made 'public'.

Yours in meteorological marvels

Bodo
-------------------------------



Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

X-Originating-IP: [203.35.254.2]
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Squall line report up
Date: Wed, 07 Mar 2001 18:53:58 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Mar 2001 07:53:58.0369 (UTC) FILETIME=[C40E3D10:01C0A6DB]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

for those intrested, a short report with pics of the 28/2 squall line are at

>>http://wxchase.com/Docs/280201.html

On another note quite dry in the northern beaches of Sydney today for the 
most part. However, during my three quick trips to the inner west, there 
were very heavy falls for the duration of each trip - quite a contrast!.   
regards,  david
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Its just not happening in SEQ
Date: Wed, 7 Mar 2001 17:57:56 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi everyone.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Despite what would have seemed to be a significant 
rain event brewing for SEQ, those bands of rain just don't want to move any 
closer than a parallel run just east of Moreton &amp; Stradbroke Islands. 
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>There was a big echoing boom of thunder about half 
an hour ago from out to sea and still looking very tantalising in that 
direction.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I notice the prog is forecasting a decay of the low 
and a firm ridge building in its demise. This may force some of that rain onto 
the coast. Looks like another low may develop well off the central QLD coast 
(although the latest sat pic didn't look too promising) and if anything will 
probably perform a clockwise loop as another sub-tropical system. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Could be back to square one by the weekend. Any one 
else got any ideas of what's next ?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: SLIGHTLY OFF TOPIC - TCs in Indian Ocean 
Date: Wed, 7 Mar 2001 18:12:30 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Help please !</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I wonder if any one has any ideas where to find 
reasonably up to date&nbsp;advisories on TC's in the western Indian 
Ocean.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I just can't find anything on what appears, almost 
without a doubt, quite a reasonable and strengthening TC currently just to the 
east of the African east coast.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

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Date: Wed, 07 Mar 2001 19:31:09 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TCs in Indian Ocean / East Coast Low
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi Simon,

all the advisories are here:
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

specifically:
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/abioweb.txt
gives you a round up of all activity in the SIO.

As for the North Tasman Sea low off the coast here, it has given us squally 
heavy showers for about 50 hours as it slowly gets closer to the coast. 
About 70mm in total at McLeans Ridges near Lismore since Monday afternoon. 
Winds have been up to 40 knots at times, but not as strong today.

regards, Michael


At 18:12 07/03/2001 +1100, you wrote:
>Help please !
>
>I wonder if any one has any ideas where to find reasonably up to date 
>advisories on TC's in the western Indian Ocean.
>
>I just can't find anything on what appears, almost without a doubt, quite 
>a reasonable and strengthening TC currently just to the east of the 
>African east coast.
>
>
>Simon


  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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</x-flowed>
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SLIGHTLY OFF TOPIC - TCs in Indian Ocean 
Date: Wed, 7 Mar 2001 18:09:39 +0930
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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<DIV>
<P><SPAN class=610473808-07032001><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>HI Simon 
- Joint Typhoon Warning Centre issues warnings for these systems. See below to 
the latest advice.</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN class=610473808-07032001><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Rgds, 
Paul.</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 
SUMMARY:</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 11.8S0</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>50.E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 
46.9E9, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>WEST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. 
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>LESS DEFINED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS 
NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE UW-</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCT INDICATES THE 
SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS 
FAIR.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>FORECAST TEAM: 
MAZANY/MORRIS/EDBERG//</FONT></P></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> 
  aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
  [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Simon 
  Clarke<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 7 March 2001 4:43 PM<BR><B>To:</B> 
  aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: SLIGHTLY OFF TOPIC - 
  TCs in Indian Ocean <BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Help please !</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I wonder if any one has any ideas where to find 
  reasonably up to date&nbsp;advisories on TC's in the western Indian 
  Ocean.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I just can't find anything on what appears, 
  almost without a doubt, quite a reasonable and strengthening TC currently just 
  to the east of the African east coast.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Its starting to happen in SEQ slowly !!!!
Date: Wed, 7 Mar 2001 19:53:34 +1100
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all !</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>At last it has started to rain here in Cleveland 
(just below the 'n' in Brisbane in the local loop), with some lighter blue - 
heavier rain - travelling in a more NW towards here across Moreton Bay. A few 
sporadic flashes of lightning still seawards. I remain hopeful.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Only 11mm of rain here so far in this event. I 
think I might need to migrate to McLeans Bridge - it's the most happening 
place.&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Talk about frustration !!!&nbsp; Something only you 
people could&nbsp;also understand.&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: FINALLY something to photograph
Date: Wed, 7 Mar 2001 19:56:08 +1000
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Hey Ben, all

Some great shots there!!  I especially like #3 and #6 - awesome.

Another great sunset this evening as well.

Looking at radar, there's a huge heap of precip right on and off the coast.
Its pretty frustrating seeing most of it just pass by :-(  As I type this,
its just starting to rain lightly, but I'm not expecting too much from this
lot.

Regards
James Chambers




> Hi everyone
>
> Others have given a run down of the day already so i'll just paste some
> URL's
>
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_01.jpg (offshore cb complex)
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_02.jpg (ditto)
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_03.jpg (ditto)
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_04.jpg (shelf cloud in eastern suburbs
of
> bris)
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_05.jpg (ditto)
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_06.jpg (awesome sunset - managed to
> squeeze a shot in from work before being dragged back inside by my ears)
>


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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TCs in Indian Ocean / East Coast Low
Date: Wed, 07 Mar 2001 11:55:38 GMT
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Simon, Tom Metcalfe's site at
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/tropical.html has extra
links, too. Follow the link to Tropical Advisories. Some of these lead
to seemingly empty directories at Ohio State Uni, but they get
populated when warnings are about.

Laurier

On Wed, 07 Mar 2001 19:31:09 +1100, Michael Bath
<mbath at ozemail.com.au> wrote:

>Hi Simon,
>
>all the advisories are here:
>http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html
>
>specifically:
>http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/abioweb.txt
>gives you a round up of all activity in the SIO.
>
>As for the North Tasman Sea low off the coast here, it has given us squally 
>heavy showers for about 50 hours as it slowly gets closer to the coast. 
>About 70mm in total at McLeans Ridges near Lismore since Monday afternoon. 
>Winds have been up to 40 knots at times, but not as strong today.
>
>regards, Michael
>
>
>At 18:12 07/03/2001 +1100, you wrote:
>>Help please !
>>
>>I wonder if any one has any ideas where to find reasonably up to date 
>>advisories on TC's in the western Indian Ocean.
>>
>>I just can't find anything on what appears, almost without a doubt, quite 
>>a reasonable and strengthening TC currently just to the east of the 
>>African east coast.
>>
>>
>>Simon
>
>
>  =============================================================
>  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
>  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
>  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>  =============================================================
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Low off N NSW coast
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 14:02:26 +1000
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Hi all,

Well looks like the action has gone south, with the Low now off Ballina.
All I can see from here is a mass of cloud down over the border, hopefully
there is some action to go with it.  Gusty SW winds here, and across most of
Brisbane atm, stronger in the South.  In fact a good NE'ter at Double Island
point which goes to show how localised the effect of this low is.  My total
rainfall for the last 4 days is 3.1mm, rather a pathetic end result for what
at one stage looked like a dumper.

Curious how the QLD BoM and NSW BoM treat the same event differently.  QLD
BoM used a Severe Weather Warning (plus the usual), which included likely
effects such as beach erosion dah de dah, while the   NSW BoM keeps to
traditional flood warnings and wind warnings only.  Personally, I like the
QLD BoM approach.

John.

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Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 15:23:46 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: East Coast Low
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

Check out the Grafton broad scale radar loop, lovely circulation like a TC 
just off the NSW North Coast. I've saved one here:
http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/200103080410.gif

51mm overnight in heavy showers and a further 45mm in the 6 hours to 3pm at 
McLeans Ridges. Heavier falls have occurred in other parts of the Northern 
Rivers and Mid North Coast.

Winds are gusting to about 40 knots here.

Michael


  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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From: "Dean McWhinney" <mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 15:56:49 +1100
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Hi looks great i would love to see it but being in sydney we get nothing as
usaul  :) :(   ah well i would like to know has anyone got any reports of
east coast lows or pics gifs jpgs anything related to east coast lows let me
know  at  mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au

************************************************
Dean McWhinney
Year 9 student,ameture weather watcher
and fisherman/sailor
Email:mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 3:23 PM
Subject: aus-wx: East Coast Low


> Hi all,
>
> Check out the Grafton broad scale radar loop, lovely circulation like a TC
> just off the NSW North Coast. I've saved one here:
> http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/200103080410.gif
>
> 51mm overnight in heavy showers and a further 45mm in the 6 hours to 3pm
at
> McLeans Ridges. Heavier falls have occurred in other parts of the Northern
> Rivers and Mid North Coast.
>
> Winds are gusting to about 40 knots here.
>
> Michael
>
>
>   =============================================================
>   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
>   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
>   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>   =============================================================
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Two records for long runs of days over 20
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 17:07:08 +1100 (EST)
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Reflecting the more or less total absence of cool weather this 
summer, we have seen two records for most consecutive days over
20. 

Canberra's last day below 20 was November 16, giving a run of 112
days (and continuing). This breaks the previous record of 109 days
set in 1997-98.

Melbourne's last day below 20 was December 28. The record run of 70
consecutive days (set in 1956) was equalled today and, barring 
something very unexpected, will be broken tomorrow. (It's a pity from
this point of view that we don't use imperial measurements - the last
68 days have also exceeded 70 F (21.1 C), easily breaking the 1956
record of 43). Melbourne has also had 20 consecutive days without
measurable rain.

No sub-20 day is in immediate prospect in either location, although
there is an outside chance of one in Melbourne in the middle of next
week.

Blair
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Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 17:53:39 +1100
Reply-To: aswa at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [aswa] Skills required to be a president of ASWA

Hi all,

This just got sent to me. Of course, being the President of ASWA, there is 
no excuses I have to respond. Any clues?? I knew I should have done Spanish 
at school... Please e-mail me privately


APIZACO, TLAXCALA, MEXICO A 7 DE MARZO DEL 2001

PRESIDENTE DE ASWA
SOMOS UN GRUPO DE PERSONAS QUE RADICAMOS EN MEXICO Y QUE DESDE HACE DOS 
AÑOS VENIMOS UN METODO UNICO EN EL MUNDO PARA EL CONTROL DE FENOMENOS 
CLIMATOLOGICOS, NUESTRO METODO CONTROLA TORNADOS, HURACANES, TIFONES, 
MONSONES. HEMOS OFRECIDO ESTE METODO DE CONTROL A PAISES COMO ESTADOS 
UNIDOS, PUERTO RICO, INGLATERRA, FRANCIA, ESPAÑA. ALEMANIA, Y MEXICO 
ENVIANDO MENSAJES A LAS EMBAJADAS Y PRECIDENCIAS DE LOS DIFERENTES PAISES. 
DESDE EL HURACAN FLOYD QUE IBA A ASOTAR ESTADOS UNIDOS EN EL AÑO 1999 HASTA 
EL ULTISIN MAS POR EL MOMENTO Y QUEDANDO SUS ATENTOS Y SEGUROS SERVIDORES

SERGIO VAZQUEZ CASTILLO
CARLOS EDUARDO CARRANZA SANCHEZ
FRANCISCO I. MADERO 307
APIZACO, TLAXCALA, MEXICO
C.P. 90300
TEL. CELULAR 0124135108

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au


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Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 16:41:49 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Hybrid?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi MB and all,

This low has been rather interesting.  It originally started as part of
an upper level low and trough and 300 and 500mb respectively.  This
allowed the low to develop and it has done well so far.  However over
the past 48-72hrs it appears to have been changing.  Previously, when
they low was approaching the SE'lies were cold and dry (well, they felt
that way), a couple of days ago the SE'lies turned more S'ly - but the
DP's increased and so did the temperatures (a little).  I know we had
showers, but the winds distinctly felt less "southern" and more
"tropical."  The other thing that has been interesting is the way it has
been structured on sat pics - yesterday it looked like it had an "eye"
at times!  Also interesting is the warming at 300-500mb, in fact the
warming has been so significant that the 300mb low has broken down!  And
a 300mb ridge has taken its place.  The 500mb circulation has also
somewhat broken down, there is a weak ridge over the centre, but it
looks like there is still a weak cyclonic circulation at 500mb?  (As
opposed to anti-cyclonic).  The GMS-5 analysis shows an area of
divergence over the region, with a 200-300mb anti-cyclonic curve.  The
overall shear shows an upper level ridge "dint" in the general pattern.

As I speak now, people in IRC are commenting how there is an eye on
radar - it can clearly be seen on Brisbane broad!

It seems close to a TC - although by definition not quite there yet due
to a few left-over cold cored characteristics.  Any comments on this? 
How many cold cored lows around Australia progress into the tropical (or
hybrid) stage?  

AC

Michael Bath wrote:
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> Check out the Grafton broad scale radar loop, lovely circulation like a TC
> just off the NSW North Coast. I've saved one here:
> http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/200103080410.gif
> 
> 51mm overnight in heavy showers and a further 45mm in the 6 hours to 3pm at
> McLeans Ridges. Heavier falls have occurred in other parts of the Northern
> Rivers and Mid North Coast.
> 
> Winds are gusting to about 40 knots here.
> 
> Michael
> 
>   =============================================================
>   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
>   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
>   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>   =============================================================
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 17:53:39 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, aswa at egroups.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Skills required to be a president of ASWA
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id BAA24047
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

This just got sent to me. Of course, being the President of ASWA, there is 
no excuses I have to respond. Any clues?? I knew I should have done Spanish 
at school... Please e-mail me privately


APIZACO, TLAXCALA, MEXICO A 7 DE MARZO DEL 2001

PRESIDENTE DE ASWA
SOMOS UN GRUPO DE PERSONAS QUE RADICAMOS EN MEXICO Y QUE DESDE HACE DOS 
AÑOS VENIMOS UN METODO UNICO EN EL MUNDO PARA EL CONTROL DE FENOMENOS 
CLIMATOLOGICOS, NUESTRO METODO CONTROLA TORNADOS, HURACANES, TIFONES, 
MONSONES. HEMOS OFRECIDO ESTE METODO DE CONTROL A PAISES COMO ESTADOS 
UNIDOS, PUERTO RICO, INGLATERRA, FRANCIA, ESPAÑA. ALEMANIA, Y MEXICO 
ENVIANDO MENSAJES A LAS EMBAJADAS Y PRECIDENCIAS DE LOS DIFERENTES PAISES. 
DESDE EL HURACAN FLOYD QUE IBA A ASOTAR ESTADOS UNIDOS EN EL AÑO 1999 HASTA 
EL ULTISIN MAS POR EL MOMENTO Y QUEDANDO SUS ATENTOS Y SEGUROS SERVIDORES

SERGIO VAZQUEZ CASTILLO
CARLOS EDUARDO CARRANZA SANCHEZ
FRANCISCO I. MADERO 307
APIZACO, TLAXCALA, MEXICO
C.P. 90300
TEL. CELULAR 0124135108

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Hybrid?
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 18:42:35 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Another interesting thing about this low is that the showers that have
occurred from Wollongong southwards ( mainly yesterday ) have come in well
defined bands, and on the sat pics exactly like very weak spiral bands that
you would normally associate with cyclones, not ECL's

Unfortunately today the upper winds seem to shearing these bands at the
southern end of the system off the SE, hence the sudden improvement in the
weather over the Illawarra today. Although there was one heavy shower around
10am.

Michael




> It seems close to a TC - although by definition not quite there yet due
> to a few left-over cold cored characteristics.  Any comments on this?
> How many cold cored lows around Australia progress into the tropical (or
> hybrid) stage?
>



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Squall line report up
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 18:53:03 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Great report David. Your included sounding reveals a complete lack of
directional shear, but moderate/strong mid level to high level winds, no
doubt a factor in the organisation of the squall line.

Michael




----- Original Message -----
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, 7 March 2001 18:53
Subject: aus-wx: Squall line report up


> Hi all,
>
> for those intrested, a short report with pics of the 28/2 squall line are
at
>
> >>http://wxchase.com/Docs/280201.html
>
> On another note quite dry in the northern beaches of Sydney today for the
> most part. However, during my three quick trips to the inner west, there
> were very heavy falls for the duration of each trip - quite a contrast!.
> regards,  david
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Shock horror - another upper low ?
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 17:43:02 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi again</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Another quick message.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>What's happening just to the east south east of New 
Caledonia. It appears suspiciously like another developing upper system. Will it 
move west ?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Stay tuned to find out !!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Hybrid?
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 17:40:38 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Anthony et al

My thoughts exactly - I have no doubts that this low has undergone a
transformation into a hybrid style system. An eye type feature has been
evident for much of the day just to the east of Ballina.

Gales are evident in all quads, but I don't think it could be classified as
a Tropical Cyclone as I think the definition requires tropical origins or at
least it needs to travel into the tropics to gain this status.

Nevertheless, it can be a moot point. Its windy, there a gales in all quads
(so what the big difference?). We all know the technical meteorological
definitions etc... and I really don't care whether these systems get names
or not. I think a "sub"tropical low suits these hybrid systems fine.

Its moving west (anyone down there might like to see if they can experience
this eye like feature as crosses the coast and let us all know what its like
!)

Still a very frustrated SEQlder

Simon

----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 5:41 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Hybrid?


> Hi MB and all,
>
> This low has been rather interesting.  It originally started as part of
> an upper level low and trough and 300 and 500mb respectively.  This
> allowed the low to develop and it has done well so far.  However over
> the past 48-72hrs it appears to have been changing.  Previously, when
> they low was approaching the SE'lies were cold and dry (well, they felt
> that way), a couple of days ago the SE'lies turned more S'ly - but the
> DP's increased and so did the temperatures (a little).  I know we had
> showers, but the winds distinctly felt less "southern" and more
> "tropical."  The other thing that has been interesting is the way it has
> been structured on sat pics - yesterday it looked like it had an "eye"
> at times!  Also interesting is the warming at 300-500mb, in fact the
> warming has been so significant that the 300mb low has broken down!  And
> a 300mb ridge has taken its place.  The 500mb circulation has also
> somewhat broken down, there is a weak ridge over the centre, but it
> looks like there is still a weak cyclonic circulation at 500mb?  (As
> opposed to anti-cyclonic).  The GMS-5 analysis shows an area of
> divergence over the region, with a 200-300mb anti-cyclonic curve.  The
> overall shear shows an upper level ridge "dint" in the general pattern.
>
> As I speak now, people in IRC are commenting how there is an eye on
> radar - it can clearly be seen on Brisbane broad!
>
> It seems close to a TC - although by definition not quite there yet due
> to a few left-over cold cored characteristics.  Any comments on this?
> How many cold cored lows around Australia progress into the tropical (or
> hybrid) stage?
>
> AC
>
> Michael Bath wrote:
> >
> > Hi all,
> >
> > Check out the Grafton broad scale radar loop, lovely circulation like a
TC
> > just off the NSW North Coast. I've saved one here:
> > http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/200103080410.gif
> >
> > 51mm overnight in heavy showers and a further 45mm in the 6 hours to 3pm
at
> > McLeans Ridges. Heavier falls have occurred in other parts of the
Northern
> > Rivers and Mid North Coast.
> >
> > Winds are gusting to about 40 knots here.
> >
> > Michael
> >
> >   =============================================================
> >   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
> >   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
> >   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
> >   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
> >   =============================================================
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.173.155.78]
From: "Shannon Symons" <shan_symons at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Hello
Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 18:52:51 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 08 Mar 2001 07:52:51.0935 (UTC) FILETIME=[C6DEF6F0:01C0A7A4]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi All,

I have recently subscribed to the Aussie Weather mailing list and
I just thought I would take this moment to introduce myself.

My name is Shannon Symons and I am a student at Macquarie Uni, Sydney. I am 
in the final year of my science degree, yet I am somewhat new to weather, as 
i can only claim having gotten into it about 2 years ago. But, my discovered 
interest in the weather was enough to change my major at uni to atmospheric 
science!

I'd also like to take this opportunity to say a big thankyou to Jimmy 
Deguara. He has been somewhat of a mentor to me over the last few months, 
and was the one who introduced me to this mailing list. Thanks Jimmy!

- Shannon







_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 04:53:42 +1100
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Hybrid?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Note that Evans Head in NTH NSW was reporting gusts to 130 km/hr and
heavy rain at 6 pm.... + 20 mm/hr for some tmie.
Don W 

Anthony Cornelius wrote:
> 
> Hi MB and all,
> 
> This low has been rather interesting.  It originally started as part of
> an upper level low and trough and 300 and 500mb respectively.  This
> allowed the low to develop and it has done well so far.  However over
> the past 48-72hrs it appears to have been changing.  Previously, when
> they low was approaching the SE'lies were cold and dry (well, they felt
> that way), a couple of days ago the SE'lies turned more S'ly - but the
> DP's increased and so did the temperatures (a little).  I know we had
> showers, but the winds distinctly felt less "southern" and more
> "tropical."  The other thing that has been interesting is the way it has
> been structured on sat pics - yesterday it looked like it had an "eye"
> at times!  Also interesting is the warming at 300-500mb, in fact the
> warming has been so significant that the 300mb low has broken down!  And
> a 300mb ridge has taken its place.  The 500mb circulation has also
> somewhat broken down, there is a weak ridge over the centre, but it
> looks like there is still a weak cyclonic circulation at 500mb?  (As
> opposed to anti-cyclonic).  The GMS-5 analysis shows an area of
> divergence over the region, with a 200-300mb anti-cyclonic curve.  The
> overall shear shows an upper level ridge "dint" in the general pattern.
> 
> As I speak now, people in IRC are commenting how there is an eye on
> radar - it can clearly be seen on Brisbane broad!
> 
> It seems close to a TC - although by definition not quite there yet due
> to a few left-over cold cored characteristics.  Any comments on this?
> How many cold cored lows around Australia progress into the tropical (or
> hybrid) stage?
> 
> AC
> 
> Michael Bath wrote:
> >
> > Hi all,
> >
> > Check out the Grafton broad scale radar loop, lovely circulation like a TC
> > just off the NSW North Coast. I've saved one here:
> > http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/200103080410.gif
> >
> > 51mm overnight in heavy showers and a further 45mm in the 6 hours to 3pm at
> > McLeans Ridges. Heavier falls have occurred in other parts of the Northern
> > Rivers and Mid North Coast.
> >
> > Winds are gusting to about 40 knots here.
> >
> > Michael
> >
> >   =============================================================
> >   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
> >   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
> >   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
> >   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
> >   =============================================================
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 19:16:35 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hello
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Well what can I say... Welcome to the mailing list Shannon.

Jimmy Deguara

At 06:52 PM 8/03/01 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi All,
>
>I have recently subscribed to the Aussie Weather mailing list and
>I just thought I would take this moment to introduce myself.
>
>My name is Shannon Symons and I am a student at Macquarie Uni, Sydney. I 
>am in the final year of my science degree, yet I am somewhat new to 
>weather, as i can only claim having gotten into it about 2 years ago. But, 
>my discovered interest in the weather was enough to change my major at uni 
>to atmospheric science!
>
>I'd also like to take this opportunity to say a big thankyou to Jimmy 
>Deguara. He has been somewhat of a mentor to me over the last few months, 
>and was the one who introduced me to this mailing list. Thanks Jimmy!
>
>- Shannon
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>message.
>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 19:35:50 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Hi!
Well i think what is the 'eye' of the low is moving over my place now. Winds 
have finally eased a little (were up to 130km/h) and rain has eased too. I 
am not certain it has passed over but it looks like it on radar. It's been a 
great day without too much damage (although power is very scarce around my 
area at the moment and I'm stuck at my home at the moment due to fallen 
trees). Hope to see some more rain and wind soon. See ya!
Dave Ellem from Wollongbar (just W of Ballina NRivers)



_________________________________________________________________________
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From: "Max King" <mnk at dingoblue.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hello
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 19:47:39 +1100
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Hi Shannon and welcome aboard :)

Max
--


--- Original Message -----
From: "Jimmy Deguara" <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 7:16 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hello


> Well what can I say... Welcome to the mailing list Shannon.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 06:52 PM 8/03/01 +1100, you wrote:
> >Hi All,
> >
> >I have recently subscribed to the Aussie Weather mailing list and
> >I just thought I would take this moment to introduce myself.
> >
> >My name is Shannon Symons and I am a student at Macquarie Uni, Sydney. I
> >am in the final year of my science degree, yet I am somewhat new to
> >weather, as i can only claim having gotten into it about 2 years ago.
But,
> >my discovered interest in the weather was enough to change my major at
uni
> >to atmospheric science!
> >
> >I'd also like to take this opportunity to say a big thankyou to Jimmy
> >Deguara. He has been somewhat of a mentor to me over the last few months,
> >and was the one who introduced me to this mailing list. Thanks Jimmy!
> >
> >- Shannon
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >_________________________________________________________________________
> >Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
> >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >message.
> >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Zac" <mnk at dingoblue.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 19:58:42 +1100
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Dave,

It would appear by radar that the eye is over you now (7.45pm). Looks like
you may get hammed again from the opposite direction soon.

Max
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 7:35 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?


> Hi!
> Well i think what is the 'eye' of the low is moving over my place now.
Winds
> have finally eased a little (were up to 130km/h) and rain has eased too. I
> am not certain it has passed over but it looks like it on radar. It's been
a
> great day without too much damage (although power is very scarce around my
> area at the moment and I'm stuck at my home at the moment due to fallen
> trees). Hope to see some more rain and wind soon. See ya!
> Dave Ellem from Wollongbar (just W of Ballina NRivers)
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 20:21:24 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Low pressure system
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I now do believe that this system will have an impact on Sydney. There is 
an extensive band in the Tasman which indicates that the low is extending 
its southwards influence. We may not get affected in the near future form 
the low itself but the flow in between may give us substantial rain. We 
shall see over the weekend.

One looks back over the years, and may find that Sydney tends to get its 
dumping over the weekend period.....

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.2.32.110]
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 20:23:34 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 08 Mar 2001 09:23:34.0970 (UTC) FILETIME=[732C31A0:01C0A7B1]
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<x-flowed>
Yes, the hammering has begun again!! Heavy rain briefly at times. But the 
wind!!! Will keep you updated.
Dave


>From: "Zac" <mnk at dingoblue.net.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
>Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 19:58:42 +1100
>
>Dave,
>
>It would appear by radar that the eye is over you now (7.45pm). Looks like
>you may get hammed again from the opposite direction soon.
>
>Max
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 7:35 PM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
>
>
> > Hi!
> > Well i think what is the 'eye' of the low is moving over my place now.
>Winds
> > have finally eased a little (were up to 130km/h) and rain has eased too. 
>I
> > am not certain it has passed over but it looks like it on radar. It's 
>been
>a
> > great day without too much damage (although power is very scarce around 
>my
> > area at the moment and I'm stuck at my home at the moment due to fallen
> > trees). Hope to see some more rain and wind soon. See ya!
> > Dave Ellem from Wollongbar (just W of Ballina NRivers)
> >
> >
> >
> > 
>_________________________________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at 
>http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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>to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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</x-flowed>
Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 21:01:35 +1100
From: Keith Barnett <weather at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Low pressure system
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I hope you are right Jimmy..because the Bureau is going for a general
easing of things. This ECL has been a complete fizzer as far as Sydney's
concerned, although I have had 75mm of rain in the last 9 days. I was
wishing the radar over Sydney would be the same as the north coast
earlier this afternoon (I can access the BoM site from work but no other
weather sites unless there's a .GOV in the URLs).
If we say that to the average person they will say 'get lost! I want a
fine weekend!'
After this month I'd say we are in for a long dry spell, but watch out
for the next monsoon burst presently approaching from Africa....

Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> I now do believe that this system will have an impact on Sydney. There is
> an extensive band in the Tasman which indicates that the low is extending
> its southwards influence. We may not get affected in the near future form
> the low itself but the flow in between may give us substantial rain. We
> shall see over the weekend.
> 
> One looks back over the years, and may find that Sydney tends to get its
> dumping over the weekend period.....
> 
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> 
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
> 
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> 
> Web Page with Michael Bath
> 
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> 
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> 
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Wish winter was here!!!
Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 20:27:01 +1030
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<x-flowed>
Hi everyone.  I haven't written to the list in ages because really there 
hasn't been much to write about in terms of Adelaide weather.  I am really 
starting to hang out for winter now wishing it will be a good one.  There 
have been some suggestions that this will be an extreme winter in terms of 
rainfall, frequency of cold changes and temperatures.  Many of these 
suggestions are based on very amature facts such as we have had a very 
extreme summer, trees seem to be dropping there leaves a bit earlier, gum 
trees have lost a lot of bark and there is considerable growth on them.  A 
lot of this could be to do with summer damage or the theory I prefer is 
everything is getting ready for winter damage.  The 1992 season which was a 
big one here in Adelaide with even flood events. A hot summer lead up to 
this with very low rainfall.  Also 1983 was a very wet year in Adelaide, 
1992 was a very wet year and they were in a space of 9 years so maybe this 
year will be very wet as nine years in now up since 1992?  Also with La Nina 
significantly dissapating and El Nino looking on the cards maybe a rather 
wet season is on the way ready fro the dry ones we can soon expect.  I just 
hope we don't get a very dry winter like 1994 for example.  Anyway this is 
all total speculation but it would be great if winter showed its full 
strength this year.  One can only wish!  And more than one or two winter 
thunderstorms would be great too.



_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at australia.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hello
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 17:56:23 +1100
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Welcome Shannon. Look forward to seeing some posts from you in the near
future.

PaulY

----- Original Message -----
From: "Shannon Symons" <shan_symons at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 6:52 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Hello


> Hi All,
>
> I have recently subscribed to the Aussie Weather mailing list and
> I just thought I would take this moment to introduce myself.
>
> My name is Shannon Symons and I am a student at Macquarie Uni, Sydney. I
am
> in the final year of my science degree, yet I am somewhat new to weather,
as
> i can only claim having gotten into it about 2 years ago. But, my
discovered
> interest in the weather was enough to change my major at uni to
atmospheric
> science!
>
> I'd also like to take this opportunity to say a big thankyou to Jimmy
> Deguara. He has been somewhat of a mentor to me over the last few months,
> and was the one who introduced me to this mailing list. Thanks Jimmy!
>
> - Shannon
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: "Zac" <mnk at dingoblue.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 21:10:12 +1100
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Thanks Dave.

How long did the calm last?  Is it blowing from the opposite direction
now????

Max
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 8:23 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?


> Yes, the hammering has begun again!! Heavy rain briefly at times. But the
> wind!!! Will keep you updated.
> Dave
>
>
> >From: "Zac" <mnk at dingoblue.net.au>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
> >Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 19:58:42 +1100
> >
> >Dave,
> >
> >It would appear by radar that the eye is over you now (7.45pm). Looks
like
> >you may get hammed again from the opposite direction soon.
> >
> >Max
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 7:35 PM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
> >
> >
> > > Hi!
> > > Well i think what is the 'eye' of the low is moving over my place now.
> >Winds
> > > have finally eased a little (were up to 130km/h) and rain has eased
too.
> >I
> > > am not certain it has passed over but it looks like it on radar. It's
> >been
> >a
> > > great day without too much damage (although power is very scarce
around
> >my
> > > area at the moment and I'm stuck at my home at the moment due to
fallen
> > > trees). Hope to see some more rain and wind soon. See ya!
> > > Dave Ellem from Wollongbar (just W of Ballina NRivers)
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >_________________________________________________________________________
> > > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at
> >http://www.hotmail.com.
> > >
> > >
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> >to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> >your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 21:33:01 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
It didn't pass completely over (I'm 2km NW of Dave), we just ended up on 
the SW edge of the eye which is about 60 km across.

Winds briefly went WSW then back to SSW and are now SE, very squally at times.

The eye seems to be moving slightly towards the N or NNE but is probably 
just stationary. Time will tell. If it does heavy rain will return to the 
Wilsons River catchment which flows into flood prone Lismore which is 
expecting a just below moderate flood peak tomorrow morning.

Michael


At 21:10 08/03/2001 +1100, you wrote:
>Thanks Dave.
>
>How long did the calm last?  Is it blowing from the opposite direction
>now????
>
>Max
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 8:23 PM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
>
>
> > Yes, the hammering has begun again!! Heavy rain briefly at times. But the
> > wind!!! Will keep you updated.
> > Dave
> >
> >
> > >From: "Zac" <mnk at dingoblue.net.au>
> > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
> > >Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 19:58:42 +1100
> > >
> > >Dave,
> > >
> > >It would appear by radar that the eye is over you now (7.45pm). Looks
>like
> > >you may get hammed again from the opposite direction soon.
> > >
> > >Max
> > >----- Original Message -----
> > >From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
> > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > >Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 7:35 PM
> > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
> > >
> > >
> > > > Hi!
> > > > Well i think what is the 'eye' of the low is moving over my place now.
> > >Winds
> > > > have finally eased a little (were up to 130km/h) and rain has eased
>too.
> > >I
> > > > am not certain it has passed over but it looks like it on radar. It's
> > >been
> > >a
> > > > great day without too much damage (although power is very scarce
>around
> > >my
> > > > area at the moment and I'm stuck at my home at the moment due to
>fallen
> > > > trees). Hope to see some more rain and wind soon. See ya!
> > > > Dave Ellem from Wollongbar (just W of Ballina NRivers)
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >_________________________________________________________________________
> > > > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at
> > >http://www.hotmail.com.
> > > >
> > > >
>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > >to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > >your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
>to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
>your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > _________________________________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
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>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
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Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 21:41:24 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Low pressure system
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi Keith,

I don't dispute that the system will break down but I feel that we should 
get some impact of the pressure gradient in terms of more rain.

Having said this, the weather looked more stable today over Sydney 
particularly this afternoon.

Jimmy Deguara


At 09:01 PM 8/03/01 +1100, you wrote:
>I hope you are right Jimmy..because the Bureau is going for a general
>easing of things. This ECL has been a complete fizzer as far as Sydney's
>concerned, although I have had 75mm of rain in the last 9 days. I was
>wishing the radar over Sydney would be the same as the north coast
>earlier this afternoon (I can access the BoM site from work but no other
>weather sites unless there's a .GOV in the URLs).
>If we say that to the average person they will say 'get lost! I want a
>fine weekend!'
>After this month I'd say we are in for a long dry spell, but watch out
>for the next monsoon burst presently approaching from Africa....
>
>Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> >
> > Hi all,
> >
> > I now do believe that this system will have an impact on Sydney. There is
> > an extensive band in the Tasman which indicates that the low is extending
> > its southwards influence. We may not get affected in the near future form
> > the low itself but the flow in between may give us substantial rain. We
> > shall see over the weekend.
> >
> > One looks back over the years, and may find that Sydney tends to get its
> > dumping over the weekend period.....
> >
> > -----------------------------------------
> > Jimmy Deguara
> > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> >
> > from
> > Schofields, Sydney
> > NSW Australia
> >
> > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> >
> > Web Page with Michael Bath
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> > http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> >
> > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "John Graham" <gorzzzz at dingoblue.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 21:48:44 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All,
Winds here are now from the NE(21:44)...still gusty, up to
30-35km/h....better than earlier, a gust of 69km/h here at the house (going
by my weather station)....rain has eased off, but for how long, who knows???
John from ( a waterlogged) Ballina
----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Bath" <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 9:33 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?


> It didn't pass completely over (I'm 2km NW of Dave), we just ended up on
> the SW edge of the eye which is about 60 km across.
>
> Winds briefly went WSW then back to SSW and are now SE, very squally at
times.
>
> The eye seems to be moving slightly towards the N or NNE but is probably
> just stationary. Time will tell. If it does heavy rain will return to the
> Wilsons River catchment which flows into flood prone Lismore which is
> expecting a just below moderate flood peak tomorrow morning.
>
> Michael
>
>
> At 21:10 08/03/2001 +1100, you wrote:
> >Thanks Dave.
> >
> >How long did the calm last?  Is it blowing from the opposite direction
> >now????
> >
> >Max
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 8:23 PM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
> >
> >
> > > Yes, the hammering has begun again!! Heavy rain briefly at times. But
the
> > > wind!!! Will keep you updated.
> > > Dave
> > >
> > >
> > > >From: "Zac" <mnk at dingoblue.net.au>
> > > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
> > > >Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 19:58:42 +1100
> > > >
> > > >Dave,
> > > >
> > > >It would appear by radar that the eye is over you now (7.45pm). Looks
> >like
> > > >you may get hammed again from the opposite direction soon.
> > > >
> > > >Max
> > > >----- Original Message -----
> > > >From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
> > > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > >Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 7:35 PM
> > > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Passing over?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Hi!
> > > > > Well i think what is the 'eye' of the low is moving over my place
now.
> > > >Winds
> > > > > have finally eased a little (were up to 130km/h) and rain has
eased
> >too.
> > > >I
> > > > > am not certain it has passed over but it looks like it on radar.
It's
> > > >been
> > > >a
> > > > > great day without too much damage (although power is very scarce
> >around
> > > >my
> > > > > area at the moment and I'm stuck at my home at the moment due to
> >fallen
> > > > > trees). Hope to see some more rain and wind soon. See ya!
> > > > > Dave Ellem from Wollongbar (just W of Ballina NRivers)
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > >
>_________________________________________________________________________
> > > > > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at
> > > >http://www.hotmail.com.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > >to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> > > >your
> > > > >  message.
> > > >
>
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> >to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> >your
> > > >  message.
> > >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >
_________________________________________________________________________
> > > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at
http://www.hotmail.com.
> > >
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>   =============================================================
>   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
>   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
>   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>   =============================================================
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
	"Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Further information - Darwin Tornadic episode.......
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 20:46:17 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
Importance: Normal
X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: <OMEDJHIIDNHKGDDPFNPMKEKLCBAA.ntstorms at bigpond.com>
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au
REPLY-TO: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>

HI all - this info comes from an eyewitness (Thanks to the Weather Co. for
the lead).

"4pm Tuesday - standing at back door watching an approaching dark lowering.

Suddenly the wind started - very strong. Squally shower passed through. The
wind then picked up again - this time it started to shake the house.
Hear and saw tree branches and other bits and pieces of things flying past
the house. Heard things smashing against the side of the house and roof.

Wind lasted for 15 - 20 seconds. Then it started from the opposite direction
- even stronger. Debris started slamming against house and roof. Wind
sounded like a "swirling sound" and not like a normal gusty wind.

Moderate damage suffered to house and surrounding houses.

Damage result:

- Large tree branches ripped off trees
- 1 Power line ripped of pole
- Large branches blown 20m away

Person reporting has been through several cyclones inc. Gretal. Said in his
estimation wind was about 120 - 150km/h. (like at Cat 2 TC).
Also been interested in weather for years."

Paul in Darwin



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From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Further information - Darwin Tornadic episode.......
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 20:46:17 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
Importance: Normal
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

HI all - this info comes from an eyewitness (Thanks to the Weather Co. for
the lead).

"4pm Tuesday - standing at back door watching an approaching dark lowering.

Suddenly the wind started - very strong. Squally shower passed through. The
wind then picked up again - this time it started to shake the house.
Hear and saw tree branches and other bits and pieces of things flying past
the house. Heard things smashing against the side of the house and roof.

Wind lasted for 15 - 20 seconds. Then it started from the opposite direction
- even stronger. Debris started slamming against house and roof. Wind
sounded like a "swirling sound" and not like a normal gusty wind.

Moderate damage suffered to house and surrounding houses.

Damage result:

- Large tree branches ripped off trees
- 1 Power line ripped of pole
- Large branches blown 20m away

Person reporting has been through several cyclones inc. Gretal. Said in his
estimation wind was about 120 - 150km/h. (like at Cat 2 TC).
Also been interested in weather for years."

Paul in Darwin



Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\winmail4.dat"
From: "Dean McWhinney" <mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Never seen this ONE?!!(large wave and storm surge warning!)
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 22:27:38 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

                         IDW02N00
    BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
    300 Elizabeth St. Sydney, Ph [02] 9296 1555; www.bom.gov.au

NSW LARGE WAVE WARNING
Issued at 6:36pm on Thursday the 8th of March 2001

Wave heights of up to 5 metres are expected in the surf zone
between Ballina and Wooli tonight.


The next astronomical high tide at Sydney is 1.5 metres at 8.40pm

Check local tide time differences that apply to your area.

The State Emergency Service advises people in foreshore
locations that unusually large waves encroaching on land
above the normal high tide level can be dangerous.
There is a possibility of erosion and damage to buildings.
If your house is damaged or threatened contact your local
State Emergency Service on 132 500 for emergency assistance.


Other Warnings or Advices Current Along the Coast

Storm warning between Cape Byron and Wooli.
Gale warning Cape Byron to Tweed Heads.
Gale warning Wooli to Seal Rocks.
Strong wind warning Seal Rocks to Broken Bay.

Synoptic Situation

At 6pm an East Coast Low near 990hPa
was centred 30km east of Ballina.

Current Movement of Pressure System

W at 5 km/h



Remarks

The next astronomical high tide at Yamba is 1.3 metres at 8.34pm.__
************************************************
Dean McWhinney
Year 9 student,ameture weather watcher
and fisherman/sailor
Email:mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 5:41 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Hybrid?


> Hi MB and all,
>
> This low has been rather interesting.  It originally started as part of
> an upper level low and trough and 300 and 500mb respectively.  This
> allowed the low to develop and it has done well so far.  However over
> the past 48-72hrs it appears to have been changing.  Previously, when
> they low was approaching the SE'lies were cold and dry (well, they felt
> that way), a couple of days ago the SE'lies turned more S'ly - but the
> DP's increased and so did the temperatures (a little).  I know we had
> showers, but the winds distinctly felt less "southern" and more
> "tropical."  The other thing that has been interesting is the way it has
> been structured on sat pics - yesterday it looked like it had an "eye"
> at times!  Also interesting is the warming at 300-500mb, in fact the
> warming has been so significant that the 300mb low has broken down!  And
> a 300mb ridge has taken its place.  The 500mb circulation has also
> somewhat broken down, there is a weak ridge over the centre, but it
> looks like there is still a weak cyclonic circulation at 500mb?  (As
> opposed to anti-cyclonic).  The GMS-5 analysis shows an area of
> divergence over the region, with a 200-300mb anti-cyclonic curve.  The
> overall shear shows an upper level ridge "dint" in the general pattern.
>
> As I speak now, people in IRC are commenting how there is an eye on
> radar - it can clearly be seen on Brisbane broad!
>
> It seems close to a TC - although by definition not quite there yet due
> to a few left-over cold cored characteristics.  Any comments on this?
> How many cold cored lows around Australia progress into the tropical (or
> hybrid) stage?
>
> AC
>
> Michael Bath wrote:
> >
> > Hi all,
> >
> > Check out the Grafton broad scale radar loop, lovely circulation like a
TC
> > just off the NSW North Coast. I've saved one here:
> > http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/200103080410.gif
> >
> > 51mm overnight in heavy showers and a further 45mm in the 6 hours to 3pm
at
> > McLeans Ridges. Heavier falls have occurred in other parts of the
Northern
> > Rivers and Mid North Coast.
> >
> > Winds are gusting to about 40 knots here.
> >
> > Michael
> >
> >   =============================================================
> >   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
> >   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
> >   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
> >   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
> >   =============================================================
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Reply-To: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
From: "Mark Hardy \(home\)" <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: "Weather Junkies" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
	"Weatherzone List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Very nice eye
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 23:28:42 +1100
Organization: The Weather Company
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2920.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The system off the NSW coast has developed a very 
nice eye. The latest satellite image shows it very nicely.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://beta.weatherzone.com.au/latest/NSW-sat-latest.JPG">http://beta.weatherzone.com.au/latest/NSW-sat-latest.JPG</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Radar and obs seem to indicate the system how now 
peaked. Pressures are now rising rapidly all around the system so it should 
weaken considerably overnight.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Mark Hardy<BR>The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.<BR><A 
href="http://www.theweather.com.au">http://www.theweather.com.au</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>

Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2001 23:46:56 +1100
From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Never seen this ONE?!!(large wave and storm surge warning!)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Dean,

That will be because we haven't had an ECL for a while (over a year).
These warnings are common with ECLs on the NSW and SE Qld coasts.

Andrew.


Dean McWhinney wrote:
> 
>                          IDW02N00
>     BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
>     300 Elizabeth St. Sydney, Ph [02] 9296 1555; www.bom.gov.au
> 
> NSW LARGE WAVE WARNING
> Issued at 6:36pm on Thursday the 8th of March 2001
> 
> Wave heights of up to 5 metres are expected in the surf zone
> between Ballina and Wooli tonight.
> 
> The next astronomical high tide at Sydney is 1.5 metres at 8.40pm
> 
> Check local tide time differences that apply to your area.
> 
> The State Emergency Service advises people in foreshore
> locations that unusually large waves encroaching on land
> above the normal high tide level can be dangerous.
> There is a possibility of erosion and damage to buildings.
> If your house is damaged or threatened contact your local
> State Emergency Service on 132 500 for emergency assistance.
> 
> Other Warnings or Advices Current Along the Coast
> 
> Storm warning between Cape Byron and Wooli.
> Gale warning Cape Byron to Tweed Heads.
> Gale warning Wooli to Seal Rocks.
> Strong wind warning Seal Rocks to Broken Bay.
> 
> Synoptic Situation
> 
> At 6pm an East Coast Low near 990hPa
> was centred 30km east of Ballina.
> 
> Current Movement of Pressure System
> 
> W at 5 km/h
> 
> Remarks
> 
> The next astronomical high tide at Yamba is 1.3 metres at 8.34pm.__
> ************************************************
> Dean McWhinney
> Year 9 student,ameture weather watcher
> and fisherman/sailor
> Email:mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 5:41 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Hybrid?
> 
> > Hi MB and all,
> >
> > This low has been rather interesting.  It originally started as part of
> > an upper level low and trough and 300 and 500mb respectively.  This
> > allowed the low to develop and it has done well so far.  However over
> > the past 48-72hrs it appears to have been changing.  Previously, when
> > they low was approaching the SE'lies were cold and dry (well, they felt
> > that way), a couple of days ago the SE'lies turned more S'ly - but the
> > DP's increased and so did the temperatures (a little).  I know we had
> > showers, but the winds distinctly felt less "southern" and more
> > "tropical."  The other thing that has been interesting is the way it has
> > been structured on sat pics - yesterday it looked like it had an "eye"
> > at times!  Also interesting is the warming at 300-500mb, in fact the
> > warming has been so significant that the 300mb low has broken down!  And
> > a 300mb ridge has taken its place.  The 500mb circulation has also
> > somewhat broken down, there is a weak ridge over the centre, but it
> > looks like there is still a weak cyclonic circulation at 500mb?  (As
> > opposed to anti-cyclonic).  The GMS-5 analysis shows an area of
> > divergence over the region, with a 200-300mb anti-cyclonic curve.  The
> > overall shear shows an upper level ridge "dint" in the general pattern.
> >
> > As I speak now, people in IRC are commenting how there is an eye on
> > radar - it can clearly be seen on Brisbane broad!
> >
> > It seems close to a TC - although by definition not quite there yet due
> > to a few left-over cold cored characteristics.  Any comments on this?
> > How many cold cored lows around Australia progress into the tropical (or
> > hybrid) stage?
> >
> > AC
> >
> > Michael Bath wrote:
> > >
> > > Hi all,
> > >
> > > Check out the Grafton broad scale radar loop, lovely circulation like a
> TC
> > > just off the NSW North Coast. I've saved one here:
> > > http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/200103080410.gif
> > >
> > > 51mm overnight in heavy showers and a further 45mm in the 6 hours to 3pm
> at
> > > McLeans Ridges. Heavier falls have occurred in other parts of the
> Northern
> > > Rivers and Mid North Coast.
> > >
> > > Winds are gusting to about 40 knots here.
> > >
> > > Michael
> > >
> > >   =============================================================
> > >   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
> > >   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
> > >   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
> > >   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
> > >   =============================================================
> > >
> > >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > --
> > Anthony Cornelius
> > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > (07) 3390 4812
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 

With regard to (and in protest of) the new laws involving forwarding of
messages, this email MAY be forwarded.

Andrew Miskelly
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Nathan Thompson" <naththo at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Wish winter was here!!!
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 00:16:44 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi,

Um, We had a dry winter in 1997 where there was an el nino though.

From Nathan.
----- Original Message -----
From: S G <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 8:27 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Wish winter was here!!!


> Hi everyone.  I haven't written to the list in ages because really there
> hasn't been much to write about in terms of Adelaide weather.  I am really
> starting to hang out for winter now wishing it will be a good one.  There
> have been some suggestions that this will be an extreme winter in terms of
> rainfall, frequency of cold changes and temperatures.  Many of these
> suggestions are based on very amature facts such as we have had a very
> extreme summer, trees seem to be dropping there leaves a bit earlier, gum
> trees have lost a lot of bark and there is considerable growth on them.  A
> lot of this could be to do with summer damage or the theory I prefer is
> everything is getting ready for winter damage.  The 1992 season which was
a
> big one here in Adelaide with even flood events. A hot summer lead up to
> this with very low rainfall.  Also 1983 was a very wet year in Adelaide,
> 1992 was a very wet year and they were in a space of 9 years so maybe this
> year will be very wet as nine years in now up since 1992?  Also with La
Nina
> significantly dissapating and El Nino looking on the cards maybe a rather
> wet season is on the way ready fro the dry ones we can soon expect.  I
just
> hope we don't get a very dry winter like 1994 for example.  Anyway this is
> all total speculation but it would be great if winter showed its full
> strength this year.  One can only wish!  And more than one or two winter
> thunderstorms would be great too.
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storms off the coast  (was FINALLY something to photograph)
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 01:27:30 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all

Thanks James

Are any Brisbanites up late enough to watch the lightning off the coast
tonight? It's not very frequent (flashes every 15-30 seconds with only a
handfull of visible bolts) but the structure of the storms is quite amazing
and very very photogenic

There was some much more frequent lightning to the north around Fraser
Island last night around 2am or so



----- Original Message -----
From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 07, 2001 7:56 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: FINALLY something to photograph


> Hey Ben, all
>
> Some great shots there!!  I especially like #3 and #6 - awesome.
>
> Another great sunset this evening as well.
>
> Looking at radar, there's a huge heap of precip right on and off the
coast.
> Its pretty frustrating seeing most of it just pass by :-(  As I type this,
> its just starting to rain lightly, but I'm not expecting too much from
this
> lot.
>
> Regards
> James Chambers
>
>
>
>
> > Hi everyone
> >
> > Others have given a run down of the day already so i'll just paste some
> > URL's
> >
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_01.jpg (offshore cb complex)
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_02.jpg (ditto)
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_03.jpg (ditto)
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_04.jpg (shelf cloud in eastern
suburbs
> of
> > bris)
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_05.jpg (ditto)
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_06.jpg (awesome sunset - managed to
> > squeeze a shot in from work before being dragged back inside by my ears)
> >
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Mark Hardy \(home\)" <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: "Weather Junkies" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        "Weatherzone List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Very nice eye
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 23:28:42 +1100
Organization: The Weather Company
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2920.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The system off the NSW coast has developed a very 
nice eye. The latest satellite image shows it very nicely.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://beta.weatherzone.com.au/latest/NSW-sat-latest.JPG">http://beta.weatherzone.com.au/latest/NSW-sat-latest.JPG</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Radar and obs seem to indicate the system how now 
peaked. Pressures are now rising rapidly all around the system so it should 
weaken considerably overnight.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Mark Hardy<BR>The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.<BR><A 
href="http://www.theweather.com.au">http://www.theweather.com.au</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Wish winter was here!!!
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 12:26:05 -0700
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hey S G,

Winter is probbaly my favourite season, as i'm a keen snowboarder and it
cools the upper atmosphere getting ready for the big spring storms once
surface heating kicks in again :)

But one thing i have to say is that all the finger pointing, rules of thumb,
whatever, really means little. I remember hearing this theory that ground
temptures are a good seasonal forecast method, 98 had the coldest ground
temps in something like 50 years (Mt Baw Baw) but that season sucked.
Currently, the pacific northwest of the US is 'meant' to be in a wet
winter - it's one of the driest in a long while.

My rule of thumb is to keep your eyes open about 5 days ahead and plan to be
'sick' when the storms come :)

cheers, lyle


----- Original Message -----
From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 2:57 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Wish winter was here!!!


> Hi everyone.  I haven't written to the list in ages because really there
> hasn't been much to write about in terms of Adelaide weather.  I am really
> starting to hang out for winter now wishing it will be a good one.  There
> have been some suggestions that this will be an extreme winter in terms of
> rainfall, frequency of cold changes and temperatures.  Many of these
> suggestions are based on very amature facts such as we have had a very
> extreme summer, trees seem to be dropping there leaves a bit earlier, gum
> trees have lost a lot of bark and there is considerable growth on them.  A
> lot of this could be to do with summer damage or the theory I prefer is
> everything is getting ready for winter damage.  The 1992 season which was
a
> big one here in Adelaide with even flood events. A hot summer lead up to
> this with very low rainfall.  Also 1983 was a very wet year in Adelaide,
> 1992 was a very wet year and they were in a space of 9 years so maybe this
> year will be very wet as nine years in now up since 1992?  Also with La
Nina
> significantly dissapating and El Nino looking on the cards maybe a rather
> wet season is on the way ready fro the dry ones we can soon expect.  I
just
> hope we don't get a very dry winter like 1994 for example.  Anyway this is
> all total speculation but it would be great if winter showed its full
> strength this year.  One can only wish!  And more than one or two winter
> thunderstorms would be great too.
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 09 Mar 2001 06:36:49 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast  (was FINALLY something to photograph)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Ben and all,

Conversely - if any Brisbanites are up early enough they can see the
storms off the coast (another line has formed).  It looks like a squall
line on radar, although the direction is orthogonal to what you'd expect
it to move.  They might move closer though as the low continues to move
west!

Some nice updrafts on the Cb's - and lightning on tracker.  Some As/Ac
blocking some of the views though.

Will be interesting to see what happens today - I would say there's the
chance of TS around, depending on what our DP's do.  I would expect the
winds to remain general N'ly today - the W'ly and NW'ly o'night was
quite warm and moist (for a W'ly) due to the winds wrapping around the
low.  If we can get some PBL DP's in the high teens and temps up near 30
(or higher), hopefully it might help spark something off.

Us Brisbanites can only live in hope :-)

AC

Ben Quinn wrote:
> 
> Hi all
> 
> Thanks James
> 
> Are any Brisbanites up late enough to watch the lightning off the coast
> tonight? It's not very frequent (flashes every 15-30 seconds with only a
> handfull of visible bolts) but the structure of the storms is quite amazing
> and very very photogenic
> 
> There was some much more frequent lightning to the north around Fraser
> Island last night around 2am or so
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, March 07, 2001 7:56 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: FINALLY something to photograph
> 
> > Hey Ben, all
> >
> > Some great shots there!!  I especially like #3 and #6 - awesome.
> >
> > Another great sunset this evening as well.
> >
> > Looking at radar, there's a huge heap of precip right on and off the
> coast.
> > Its pretty frustrating seeing most of it just pass by :-(  As I type this,
> > its just starting to rain lightly, but I'm not expecting too much from
> this
> > lot.
> >
> > Regards
> > James Chambers
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > > Hi everyone
> > >
> > > Others have given a run down of the day already so i'll just paste some
> > > URL's
> > >
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_01.jpg (offshore cb complex)
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_02.jpg (ditto)
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_03.jpg (ditto)
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_04.jpg (shelf cloud in eastern
> suburbs
> > of
> > > bris)
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_05.jpg (ditto)
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_06.jpg (awesome sunset - managed to
> > > squeeze a shot in from work before being dragged back inside by my ears)
> > >
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> 
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Dorrell's" <keithd at lis.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast  (was FINALLY something to photograph)
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 09:18:58 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Anthony and list,

A line of storms is just passing through here (Buckendoon near Lismore) at
0900only a few CC's observed and a few rumbles heard, wind Easterly gusting
to about 15 knots with showers.

We've had 304 mm since , with 104mm from 1700-2300 last night when I got
home from the SES where we were clearing many fallen trees from the Pacific
hwy around Woodburn also About 18 houses with roof damage and leaks, due to
the high winds. I would say that my rain Gauge would have been a bit under
reading yesterday evening as the heavy rain was blowing horizontally(my wind
estimate is in the 40- 60 Knot range), with branches leaves and twigs being
blown of the trees . We had a couple of trees blown over and a large
trampoline blown into my dam which today is overflowing and the surrounding
river flats continue to fill. We expect to cut off by tomorrow afternoon if
the Wilson's and Richmond rivers go major flooding Below Coraki.

Unfortunately ran out of film as the storm line was approaching so no
photos.

Keith Dorrell
----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 09, 2001 6:36 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast (was FINALLY something to
photograph)


> Hi Ben and all,
>
> Conversely - if any Brisbanites are up early enough they can see the
> storms off the coast (another line has formed).  It looks like a squall
> line on radar, although the direction is orthogonal to what you'd expect
> it to move.  They might move closer though as the low continues to move
> west!
>
> Some nice updrafts on the Cb's - and lightning on tracker.  Some As/Ac
> blocking some of the views though.
>
> Will be interesting to see what happens today - I would say there's the
> chance of TS around, depending on what our DP's do.  I would expect the
> winds to remain general N'ly today - the W'ly and NW'ly o'night was
> quite warm and moist (for a W'ly) due to the winds wrapping around the
> low.  If we can get some PBL DP's in the high teens and temps up near 30
> (or higher), hopefully it might help spark something off.
>
> Us Brisbanites can only live in hope :-)
>
> AC
>
> Ben Quinn wrote:
> >
> > Hi all
> >
> > Thanks James
> >
> > Are any Brisbanites up late enough to watch the lightning off the coast
> > tonight? It's not very frequent (flashes every 15-30 seconds with only a
> > handfull of visible bolts) but the structure of the storms is quite
amazing
> > and very very photogenic
> >
> > There was some much more frequent lightning to the north around Fraser
> > Island last night around 2am or so
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Wednesday, March 07, 2001 7:56 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: FINALLY something to photograph
> >
> > > Hey Ben, all
> > >
> > > Some great shots there!!  I especially like #3 and #6 - awesome.
> > >
> > > Another great sunset this evening as well.
> > >
> > > Looking at radar, there's a huge heap of precip right on and off the
> > coast.
> > > Its pretty frustrating seeing most of it just pass by :-(  As I type
this,
> > > its just starting to rain lightly, but I'm not expecting too much from
> > this
> > > lot.
> > >
> > > Regards
> > > James Chambers
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > > Hi everyone
> > > >
> > > > Others have given a run down of the day already so i'll just paste
some
> > > > URL's
> > > >
> > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_01.jpg (offshore cb complex)
> > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_02.jpg (ditto)
> > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_03.jpg (ditto)
> > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_04.jpg (shelf cloud in eastern
> > suburbs
> > > of
> > > > bris)
> > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_05.jpg (ditto)
> > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_06.jpg (awesome sunset - managed
to
> > > > squeeze a shot in from work before being dragged back inside by my
ears)
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Very nice eye
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 11:04:41 +1100 (EST)
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> 
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> 
> The system off the NSW coast has developed a very nice eye. The latest =
> satellite image shows it very nicely.
> http://beta.weatherzone.com.au/latest/NSW-sat-latest.JPG
> 
> Radar and obs seem to indicate the system how now peaked. Pressures are =
> now rising rapidly all around the system so it should weaken =
> considerably overnight.
> Mark Hardy
> The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> http://www.theweather.com.au

The talk around here this morning is that this system definitely
passes the 'duck test' to be classified as a cyclone (if it looks
like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it probably
is a duck) but now that we're this far down the road I doubt that
cyclone warnings will be issued for it. I do, however, expect that
it will be retrospectively classified as a tropical cyclone in the
end-of-season review, probably a category 1 (although some of the
wind reports I've seen would be starting to get towards category 2
territory).

Highest rainfall I've seen so far is 329 at Dorrigo. A lot of stations
haven't reported, but with this sort of system I'd expect Dorrigo to
be the focus of the wettest area (the pattern of flooding so far would
seem to be consistent with that).

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: When is a TC not a TC?
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 10:33:56 +1000
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Hi Anthony and all,

The answer appears to be 'when it isn't named'.  While the eye was only
apparent on radar for the last 48 hours (and very distinctly so), prior to
that it probably wasn't due to limitations of distance and radar.  IR
imagery has shown a distinct eye and spiral bands for at least 4 days.
Question is when it really became warm cored.  Warm cores for ECLs are no
surprise, real ECL's have this.  But this did not seem to develop like an
ECL (i.e., close to the coast and bomb very quickly), it developed well off
the coast and drifted in and has lasted much longer than ECL's typically do
(in the severe stage anyway).  Your source data for 300mb & 500mb levels may
be suspect given the small scale of this system vs measurement grid, i.e., I
suggest it may well have been warm cored for most of it's lifetime.  In all
respects, even surface obs when off Cape Moreton it appeared to have the
right characteristics, i.e., cirrus outflow shield emanating from the core,
low scudding cloud indicating strongest circulation at the surface,
increasing DP's, freshening winds, etc.  Question is whether it reached Cat
1, wind speeds in the Ballina area yesterday evening suggest so.  Maybe
there could be a new catagory of system 'Subtropical Cyclone'...

Regards,
John.
>snip

Hi MB and all,

This low has been rather interesting.  It originally started as part of
an upper level low and trough and 300 and 500mb respectively.  This
allowed the low to develop and it has done well so far.  However over
the past 48-72hrs it appears to have been changing.  Previously, when
they low was approaching the SE'lies were cold and dry (well, they felt
that way), a couple of days ago the SE'lies turned more S'ly - but the
DP's increased and so did the temperatures (a little).  I know we had
showers, but the winds distinctly felt less "southern" and more
"tropical."  The other thing that has been interesting is the way it has
been structured on sat pics - yesterday it looked like it had an "eye"
at times!  Also interesting is the warming at 300-500mb, in fact the
warming has been so significant that the 300mb low has broken down!  And
a 300mb ridge has taken its place.  The 500mb circulation has also
somewhat broken down, there is a weak ridge over the centre, but it
looks like there is still a weak cyclonic circulation at 500mb?  (As
opposed to anti-cyclonic).  The GMS-5 analysis shows an area of
divergence over the region, with a 200-300mb anti-cyclonic curve.  The
overall shear shows an upper level ridge "dint" in the general pattern.

As I speak now, people in IRC are commenting how there is an eye on
radar - it can clearly be seen on Brisbane broad!

It seems close to a TC - although by definition not quite there yet due
to a few left-over cold cored characteristics.  Any comments on this?
How many cold cored lows around Australia progress into the tropical (or
hybrid) stage?

AC

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storms off the coast  (was FINALLY something to photograph)
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 10:44:20 +1000
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Hi Ben,

Yes, AWESOME view this morning of that TS/CB line shown on radar, from here
you can see it wrapping all the way down the coast into the mass of cloud to
the S and SW from the low, i.e., the entire structure showing on radar atm
is actually clearly visible.  Warm, sunny & sulty in Brisbane itself with a
nice NE'ter.  Maybe some action later on in the day?

John.
>snip

Subject: aus-wx: Storms off the coast (was FINALLY something to
photograph)


Hi all

Thanks James

Are any Brisbanites up late enough to watch the lightning off the coast
tonight? It's not very frequent (flashes every 15-30 seconds with only a
handfull of visible bolts) but the structure of the storms is quite amazing
and very very photogenic

There was some much more frequent lightning to the north around Fraser
Island last night around 2am or so



----- Original Message -----
From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 07, 2001 7:56 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: FINALLY something to photograph


> Hey Ben, all
>
> Some great shots there!!  I especially like #3 and #6 - awesome.
>
> Another great sunset this evening as well.
>
> Looking at radar, there's a huge heap of precip right on and off the
coast.
> Its pretty frustrating seeing most of it just pass by :-(  As I type this,
> its just starting to rain lightly, but I'm not expecting too much from
this
> lot.
>
> Regards
> James Chambers
>
>
>
>
> > Hi everyone
> >
> > Others have given a run down of the day already so i'll just paste some
> > URL's
> >
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_01.jpg (offshore cb complex)
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_02.jpg (ditto)
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_03.jpg (ditto)
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_04.jpg (shelf cloud in eastern
suburbs
> of
> > bris)
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_05.jpg (ditto)
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_06.jpg (awesome sunset - managed to
> > squeeze a shot in from work before being dragged back inside by my ears)
> >
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: When is a TC not a TC?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 11:55:37 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> Hi Anthony and all,
> 
> The answer appears to be 'when it isn't named'.  While the eye was only
> apparent on radar for the last 48 hours (and very distinctly so), prior to
> that it probably wasn't due to limitations of distance and radar.  IR
> imagery has shown a distinct eye and spiral bands for at least 4 days.
> Question is when it really became warm cored.  Warm cores for ECLs are no
> surprise, real ECL's have this.  But this did not seem to develop like an
> ECL (i.e., close to the coast and bomb very quickly), it developed well off
> the coast and drifted in and has lasted much longer than ECL's typically do
> (in the severe stage anyway).  Your source data for 300mb & 500mb levels may
> be suspect given the small scale of this system vs measurement grid, i.e., I
> suggest it may well have been warm cored for most of it's lifetime.  In all
> respects, even surface obs when off Cape Moreton it appeared to have the
> right characteristics, i.e., cirrus outflow shield emanating from the core,
> low scudding cloud indicating strongest circulation at the surface,
> increasing DP's, freshening winds, etc.  Question is whether it reached Cat
> 1, wind speeds in the Ballina area yesterday evening suggest so.  Maybe
> there could be a new catagory of system 'Subtropical Cyclone'...

Subtropical cyclones are a well-recognised category of storm in the
North Atlantic (although more so in the scientific literature than
amongst the public). The impression I get is that the tropical/
subtropical distinction isn't made until well after the event.

I think there was something about this in the November global TC
summary that Carl Smith posted a few days ago.

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: PHOTOS : Storms off the coast  (was FINALLY something to photograph)
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 11:05:52 +1000
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Hi all

The line of Cb's off the coast this morning have looked quite spectacular at
times - a lot of overshoots, some lovely hard updrafts and even some pileus!

http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_01.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_02.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_03.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_04.jpg



----- Original Message -----
From: "Dorrell's" <keithd at lis.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 09, 2001 9:18 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast (was FINALLY something to
photograph)


> Hi Anthony and list,
>
> A line of storms is just passing through here (Buckendoon near Lismore) at
> 0900only a few CC's observed and a few rumbles heard, wind Easterly
gusting
> to about 15 knots with showers.
>
> We've had 304 mm since , with 104mm from 1700-2300 last night when I got
> home from the SES where we were clearing many fallen trees from the
Pacific
> hwy around Woodburn also About 18 houses with roof damage and leaks, due
to
> the high winds. I would say that my rain Gauge would have been a bit under
> reading yesterday evening as the heavy rain was blowing horizontally(my
wind
> estimate is in the 40- 60 Knot range), with branches leaves and twigs
being
> blown of the trees . We had a couple of trees blown over and a large
> trampoline blown into my dam which today is overflowing and the
surrounding
> river flats continue to fill. We expect to cut off by tomorrow afternoon
if
> the Wilson's and Richmond rivers go major flooding Below Coraki.
>
> Unfortunately ran out of film as the storm line was approaching so no
> photos.
>
> Keith Dorrell
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, March 09, 2001 6:36 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast (was FINALLY something to
> photograph)
>
>
> > Hi Ben and all,
> >
> > Conversely - if any Brisbanites are up early enough they can see the
> > storms off the coast (another line has formed).  It looks like a squall
> > line on radar, although the direction is orthogonal to what you'd expect
> > it to move.  They might move closer though as the low continues to move
> > west!
> >
> > Some nice updrafts on the Cb's - and lightning on tracker.  Some As/Ac
> > blocking some of the views though.
> >
> > Will be interesting to see what happens today - I would say there's the
> > chance of TS around, depending on what our DP's do.  I would expect the
> > winds to remain general N'ly today - the W'ly and NW'ly o'night was
> > quite warm and moist (for a W'ly) due to the winds wrapping around the
> > low.  If we can get some PBL DP's in the high teens and temps up near 30
> > (or higher), hopefully it might help spark something off.
> >
> > Us Brisbanites can only live in hope :-)
> >
> > AC
> >
> > Ben Quinn wrote:
> > >
> > > Hi all
> > >
> > > Thanks James
> > >
> > > Are any Brisbanites up late enough to watch the lightning off the
coast
> > > tonight? It's not very frequent (flashes every 15-30 seconds with only
a
> > > handfull of visible bolts) but the structure of the storms is quite
> amazing
> > > and very very photogenic
> > >
> > > There was some much more frequent lightning to the north around Fraser
> > > Island last night around 2am or so
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, March 07, 2001 7:56 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: FINALLY something to photograph
> > >
> > > > Hey Ben, all
> > > >
> > > > Some great shots there!!  I especially like #3 and #6 - awesome.
> > > >
> > > > Another great sunset this evening as well.
> > > >
> > > > Looking at radar, there's a huge heap of precip right on and off the
> > > coast.
> > > > Its pretty frustrating seeing most of it just pass by :-(  As I type
> this,
> > > > its just starting to rain lightly, but I'm not expecting too much
from
> > > this
> > > > lot.
> > > >
> > > > Regards
> > > > James Chambers
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Hi everyone
> > > > >
> > > > > Others have given a run down of the day already so i'll just paste
> some
> > > > > URL's
> > > > >
> > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_01.jpg (offshore cb complex)
> > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_02.jpg (ditto)
> > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_03.jpg (ditto)
> > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_04.jpg (shelf cloud in eastern
> > > suburbs
> > > > of
> > > > > bris)
> > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_05.jpg (ditto)
> > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_06.jpg (awesome sunset -
managed
> to
> > > > > squeeze a shot in from work before being dragged back inside by my
> ears)
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > >
> > >
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> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > --
> > Anthony Cornelius
> > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > (07) 3390 4812
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Very nice eye & please did anyone save the image?
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 12:49:18 +1100
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Blair & all,

Is this the first time that a mid-latitude disturbance has made the
transition to a tropical style disturbance and has either passed the 'duck
test'? - are there any other occasions that this has happened before? -
keeping in mind that a) this sytem never got into the tropics and b) SST's
are above 26C in the area.  Probably if this was 'fought in the Courts' it
would remain a hybrid mid-latitude system.

BTW, does anyone have a really good image from gmsd of the eye?  I saved it
last night but it's on the wrong computer & I'd like to put on tranny so I
can take it to the Victorian meeting tomorrow.


Jane
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------
>
> Radar and obs seem to indicate the system how now peaked. Pressures are =
> now rising rapidly all around the system so it should weaken =
> considerably overnight.
> Mark Hardy
> The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> http://www.theweather.com.au

The talk around here this morning is that this system definitely
passes the 'duck test' to be classified as a cyclone (if it looks
like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it probably
is a duck) but now that we're this far down the road I doubt that
cyclone warnings will be issued for it. I do, however, expect that
it will be retrospectively classified as a tropical cyclone in the
end-of-season review, probably a category 1 (although some of the
wind reports I've seen would be starting to get towards category 2
territory).

Highest rainfall I've seen so far is 329 at Dorrigo. A lot of stations
haven't reported, but with this sort of system I'd expect Dorrigo to
be the focus of the wettest area (the pattern of flooding so far would
seem to be consistent with that).

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 13:02:07 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Sub-Tropical Cyclone
Cc: Jon Gill <j.gill at bom.gov.au>, Rod Smith <rodsmith at esc.net.au>
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au
REPLY-TO: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>

Hi All.

(Written offline this morning)

Given that last nights East Coast low had sustained 10 min av. winds of
50/60 knots within 90 NM in the S semicircle, and winds of at least 34/45
knots in all quadrants  [source: BoM High Seas Weather Warning, 08 0758UTC,
BoM Sydney], I think that in the interest of public safety that the BoM
should call these systems Sub-Tropical Cyclones when winds reach gale force
in all quadrants, and given a category status the same way tropical
cyclones are.

If we assume maximum wind gusts of 84 knots [60 knots + 40 percent], this
gives maximum wind gusts in the region of 155 km/hr, which is a high Cat 2
system with the potential to cause significant damage. From what I have
heard so far, gusts of about 130 km/hr were actually recorded at Evans Head
as this system approached the coast, so this is still a high Cat 1 or low
Cat 2 system by any standard.

A local member of the public this morning said "I was at Byron Bay last
night, and the weather was amazing - there was a CYCLONE happening there".
When told that the BoM called it an "East Coast Low", he was astounded.
"That was a CYCLONE" he replied. Of course, had he been a little further S
he would have been even more astounded.

The term "East Coast Low", whilst fine for systems when they are below
cyclone intensity, is grossly inadequate and misleading to the public when
these systems reach cyclone intensity - the term "Sub-Tropical Cyclone
Category 1 (or Cat 2)" would capture the public's attention and ensure many
more people headed the warnings.

Regards,
Carl.



--
Visit WeatherZone, the site for weather freaks
http://www.weatherzone.com.au

--
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Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 13:02:07 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Sub-Tropical Cyclone
Cc: Jon Gill <j.gill at bom.gov.au>, Rod Smith <rodsmith at esc.net.au>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

(Written offline this morning)

Given that last nights East Coast low had sustained 10 min av. winds of
50/60 knots within 90 NM in the S semicircle, and winds of at least 34/45
knots in all quadrants  [source: BoM High Seas Weather Warning, 08 0758UTC,
BoM Sydney], I think that in the interest of public safety that the BoM
should call these systems Sub-Tropical Cyclones when winds reach gale force
in all quadrants, and given a category status the same way tropical
cyclones are.

If we assume maximum wind gusts of 84 knots [60 knots + 40 percent], this
gives maximum wind gusts in the region of 155 km/hr, which is a high Cat 2
system with the potential to cause significant damage. From what I have
heard so far, gusts of about 130 km/hr were actually recorded at Evans Head
as this system approached the coast, so this is still a high Cat 1 or low
Cat 2 system by any standard.

A local member of the public this morning said "I was at Byron Bay last
night, and the weather was amazing - there was a CYCLONE happening there".
When told that the BoM called it an "East Coast Low", he was astounded.
"That was a CYCLONE" he replied. Of course, had he been a little further S
he would have been even more astounded.

The term "East Coast Low", whilst fine for systems when they are below
cyclone intensity, is grossly inadequate and misleading to the public when
these systems reach cyclone intensity - the term "Sub-Tropical Cyclone
Category 1 (or Cat 2)" would capture the public's attention and ensure many
more people headed the warnings.

Regards,
Carl.


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From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Cool Storm at Redcliffe
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 14:04:14 +1000
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There is a pretty good storm going around Redcliffe at the moment.
Unfortunately it is moving south. Maybe some more later though. Some more
storms to the north on Radar. Did anyone see those storms off the coast of
Morton Island this morning?

David

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From: "Damien Howes" <dhowes at flatrate.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast  (was FINALLY something to photograph)
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 02:05:16 +1100
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Hi All, This morning Anthony said......  It looks like a squall
> line on radar, although the direction is orthogonal to what you'd expect
> it to move.  They might move closer though as the low continues to move
> west!
>
>> Will be interesting to see what happens today - I would say there's the
> chance of TS around, depending on what our DP's do.  I would expect the
> winds to remain general N'ly today - the W'ly and NW'ly o'night was
> quite warm and moist (for a W'ly) due to the winds wrapping around the
> low.  If we can get some PBL DP's in the high teens and temps up near 30
> (or higher), hopefully it might help spark something off.
>
> Us Brisbanites can only live in hope :-)
>
 It all worked out nicely it seems. A very nice line of cells are forming
just in from the coastline from Caloundra to the NSW border. At 0330utc my
house is in the middle of the only real gap in the line.  Damien.
> > >
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>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Very nice eye & please did anyone save the image?
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 13:05:01 +1100
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Jane

I kind of alluded to what you are saying in an earlier message, this
probably doesn't class as a Tropical Cyclone, purely on definitions alone.
However, it looked like (sill looks a bit like) and behaved quite like a TC
over the last 24 to 48 hrs of life. Had this system moved northwards into
the tropics it probably would have been given a name.

I have had a look back at my personal collection of past tracks and noted
that TC Abigail (Mark 1) in 1982 started life as a 1007 hpa low east of
Double Island Point and then drifted north to develop TC characteristics.
Can't remember the full details here of the original genesis of that low -
too long ago, but I think it commenced from the top end of a front/trough
generated from the south. So this type of occurrence is not unheard of off
QLD, and indeed transitions between subtropical and tropical systems occurs
occasionally of the US East coast. The Gulf Stream probably plays a role
there as the East Coast current does here.

Regards
Simon

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 09, 2001 12:49 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Very nice eye & please did anyone save the image?


> Blair & all,
>
> Is this the first time that a mid-latitude disturbance has made the
> transition to a tropical style disturbance and has either passed the 'duck
> test'? - are there any other occasions that this has happened before? -
> keeping in mind that a) this sytem never got into the tropics and b) SST's
> are above 26C in the area.  Probably if this was 'fought in the Courts' it
> would remain a hybrid mid-latitude system.
>
> BTW, does anyone have a really good image from gmsd of the eye?  I saved
it
> last night but it's on the wrong computer & I'd like to put on tranny so I
> can take it to the Victorian meeting tomorrow.
>
>
> Jane
> ---------------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> ---------------------------------------
> >
> > Radar and obs seem to indicate the system how now peaked. Pressures are
=
> > now rising rapidly all around the system so it should weaken =
> > considerably overnight.
> > Mark Hardy
> > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> > http://www.theweather.com.au
>
> The talk around here this morning is that this system definitely
> passes the 'duck test' to be classified as a cyclone (if it looks
> like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it probably
> is a duck) but now that we're this far down the road I doubt that
> cyclone warnings will be issued for it. I do, however, expect that
> it will be retrospectively classified as a tropical cyclone in the
> end-of-season review, probably a category 1 (although some of the
> wind reports I've seen would be starting to get towards category 2
> territory).
>
> Highest rainfall I've seen so far is 329 at Dorrigo. A lot of stations
> haven't reported, but with this sort of system I'd expect Dorrigo to
> be the focus of the wettest area (the pattern of flooding so far would
> seem to be consistent with that).
>
> Blair
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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: When is a TC not a TC?
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 13:10:08 +1100
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John

Spot on ! See my earlier note and a reply to Jane also.

I don't really like the usage of East Coast Low as this is a certain type of
system as you have pointed out  (very short life, often quite explosive in
development and demise, and usually clings just parallel off the coast and
not crossing).

I prefer subtropical low to subtropical cyclone as the use of the word
cyclone suggests something with greater potential.

Nevertheless, despite "techno-definitions" etc..., which we could debate
forever, a very interesting weather event indeed.

Regards
Simon



----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 09, 2001 11:33 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: When is a TC not a TC?


> Hi Anthony and all,
>
> The answer appears to be 'when it isn't named'.  While the eye was only
> apparent on radar for the last 48 hours (and very distinctly so), prior to
> that it probably wasn't due to limitations of distance and radar.  IR
> imagery has shown a distinct eye and spiral bands for at least 4 days.
> Question is when it really became warm cored.  Warm cores for ECLs are no
> surprise, real ECL's have this.  But this did not seem to develop like an
> ECL (i.e., close to the coast and bomb very quickly), it developed well
off
> the coast and drifted in and has lasted much longer than ECL's typically
do
> (in the severe stage anyway).  Your source data for 300mb & 500mb levels
may
> be suspect given the small scale of this system vs measurement grid, i.e.,
I
> suggest it may well have been warm cored for most of it's lifetime.  In
all
> respects, even surface obs when off Cape Moreton it appeared to have the
> right characteristics, i.e., cirrus outflow shield emanating from the
core,
> low scudding cloud indicating strongest circulation at the surface,
> increasing DP's, freshening winds, etc.  Question is whether it reached
Cat
> 1, wind speeds in the Ballina area yesterday evening suggest so.  Maybe
> there could be a new catagory of system 'Subtropical Cyclone'...
>
> Regards,
> John.
> >snip
>
> Hi MB and all,
>
> This low has been rather interesting.  It originally started as part of
> an upper level low and trough and 300 and 500mb respectively.  This
> allowed the low to develop and it has done well so far.  However over
> the past 48-72hrs it appears to have been changing.  Previously, when
> they low was approaching the SE'lies were cold and dry (well, they felt
> that way), a couple of days ago the SE'lies turned more S'ly - but the
> DP's increased and so did the temperatures (a little).  I know we had
> showers, but the winds distinctly felt less "southern" and more
> "tropical."  The other thing that has been interesting is the way it has
> been structured on sat pics - yesterday it looked like it had an "eye"
> at times!  Also interesting is the warming at 300-500mb, in fact the
> warming has been so significant that the 300mb low has broken down!  And
> a 300mb ridge has taken its place.  The 500mb circulation has also
> somewhat broken down, there is a weak ridge over the centre, but it
> looks like there is still a weak cyclonic circulation at 500mb?  (As
> opposed to anti-cyclonic).  The GMS-5 analysis shows an area of
> divergence over the region, with a 200-300mb anti-cyclonic curve.  The
> overall shear shows an upper level ridge "dint" in the general pattern.
>
> As I speak now, people in IRC are commenting how there is an eye on
> radar - it can clearly be seen on Brisbane broad!
>
> It seems close to a TC - although by definition not quite there yet due
> to a few left-over cold cored characteristics.  Any comments on this?
> How many cold cored lows around Australia progress into the tropical (or
> hybrid) stage?
>
> AC
>
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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Very nice eye
Date: Fri, 09 Mar 2001 04:22:50 GMT
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On Fri, 9 Mar 2001 11:04:41 +1100 (EST), Blair Trewin
<blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au> wrote:

>Highest rainfall I've seen so far is 329 at Dorrigo. A lot of stations
>haven't reported, but with this sort of system I'd expect Dorrigo to
>be the focus of the wettest area (the pattern of flooding so far would
>seem to be consistent with that).

Dorrigo reported 79mm 9 to 3 yesterday. The 9am synop this morning had
the plain language note that the gauge overflowed at the 250mm mark
between 3pm and 9am. So the 329mm is 79mm + 250mm + unknown overflow. 

I.e. Dorrigo recorded *at least* 329mm. 

Dorrigo PO reported 172mm, Lowana (NE of Dorrigo I think) 364, Bowra
Sugarloaf 231, Point Lookout 235.4, Thora PO 201.6 and Grafton Pool
207.

-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://www.australianweathernews.com
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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 14:16:24 +1000
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Hi  all,

Well the line of TS/CB off the coast finally drifted in, significant precip
now at Sumner in the Western suburbs, and a massive CG just hit the HT lines
outside the office.  Simulataneous flash and huge bang.  More in the
distance (with 5kms).  Brisk NE's, temp close to 30C with hum. around 75%.
Storms don't often come from this direction !  :)

Michael Bath, any report from last night?  Damage etc in an around Ballina??

John.

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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Sub-Tropical Cyclone
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 15:17:33 +1100
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Afternoon all,

Twenty questions.......

Can anyone who lives up that way tell us if the 'eye' was clear or overcast?

Where does 'tropical' become 'subtropical' and where does 'subtropical'
become 'midlatitude'?

I'll probably think of more questions to ask......

Jane


Hi All.

(Written offline this morning)

Given that last nights East Coast low had sustained 10 min av. winds of
50/60 knots within 90 NM in the S semicircle, and winds of at least 34/45
knots in all quadrants  [source: BoM High Seas Weather Warning, 08 0758UTC,
BoM Sydney], I think that in the interest of public safety that the BoM
should call these systems Sub-Tropical Cyclones when winds reach gale force
in all quadrants, and given a category status the same way tropical
cyclones are.

If we assume maximum wind gusts of 84 knots [60 knots + 40 percent], this
gives maximum wind gusts in the region of 155 km/hr, which is a high Cat 2
system with the potential to cause significant damage. From what I have
heard so far, gusts of about 130 km/hr were actually recorded at Evans Head
as this system approached the coast, so this is still a high Cat 1 or low
Cat 2 system by any standard.

A local member of the public this morning said "I was at Byron Bay last
night, and the weather was amazing - there was a CYCLONE happening there".
When told that the BoM called it an "East Coast Low", he was astounded.
"That was a CYCLONE" he replied. Of course, had he been a little further S
he would have been even more astounded.

The term "East Coast Low", whilst fine for systems when they are below
cyclone intensity, is grossly inadequate and misleading to the public when
these systems reach cyclone intensity - the term "Sub-Tropical Cyclone
Category 1 (or Cat 2)" would capture the public's attention and ensure many
more people headed the warnings.

Regards,
Carl.


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From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Very nice eye & please did anyone save the image?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 15:46:11 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> Blair & all,
> 
> Is this the first time that a mid-latitude disturbance has made the
> transition to a tropical style disturbance and has either passed the 'duck
> test'? - are there any other occasions that this has happened before? -
> keeping in mind that a) this sytem never got into the tropics and b) SST's
> are above 26C in the area.  Probably if this was 'fought in the Courts' it
> would remain a hybrid mid-latitude system.
> 

All I can go off is the tropical cyclone database, which has nothing 
quite like this system (except for the very dubious 1962-63 data). 
There have, of course, been cyclones which have originated much 
further north and affected the north coast of NSW (Nancy in 1990 
being the most notable recent example). The closest match is probably
Zoe in March 1974, but even Zoe originated at around 20 degrees S.

I don't know enough about the history of east coast lows to comment
on whether a system of this type has formed previously and not been
classified as a cyclone.

Blair
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Date: Fri, 09 Mar 2001 16:11:28 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Sub-Tropical Cyclone
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<x-flowed>

The eye was cloud filled as far as I could tell - it was dark and the moon 
was yet to rise. No stars were observed. Seemed to be just fast moving 
stratus. At my location about 20km WNW inland from Ballina the eye only 
just reached here, we were on the SW part of it. Winds shifted quickly and 
briefly to WSW from SSW (the dominant direction most of the day), then shot 
back to S then SE as the eye seemed to expand and edge N.

The rain eased once the eye got here, with hardly any rain all night after 
about 10pm (we received about 80mm from 3pm to 8pm), 126mm for the 24 hours 
to 9am today. So the eye sure acted as a boundary to the heavy rain.

There has been widespread damage from fallen trees across the Northern 
Rivers district, structural damage to houses in coastal parts, power out to 
15,000 customers at the worst. We have a few trees with broken limbs but 
nothing much as we are fairly protected from the S winds, although the 
winds even gusted to about 130km/h here - similar to what I videoed in the 
Casino hailstorm. Large trees have been snapped off and uprooted in other 
more exposed parts.

It seems the low dropped about 5hPa very quickly from mid afternoon, and 
while it was centred about 50km E of Ballina. The winds suddenly went from 
the 35-40 knot gusts most of the day to 50-60 knot gusts from 3.20pm.

Further to Laurier's rainfall figures in the Dorrigo area, from ABC North 
Coast this morning was 385mm to 24 hours to 9am at Lowana, and the bloke's 
neighbour "up the road" had over 400mm.

The Wilsons River in Lismore looks like peaking around the 8.3 metre mark 
this evening, about 2 metres lower than last month's flood, and about 1 
metre below the level in which it starts flowing into the CBD.

regards, Michael



At 15:17 09/03/2001 +1100, you wrote:
>Afternoon all,
>
>Twenty questions.......
>
>Can anyone who lives up that way tell us if the 'eye' was clear or overcast?
>
>Where does 'tropical' become 'subtropical' and where does 'subtropical'
>become 'midlatitude'?
>
>I'll probably think of more questions to ask......
>
>Jane
>
>
>Hi All.
>
>(Written offline this morning)
>
>Given that last nights East Coast low had sustained 10 min av. winds of
>50/60 knots within 90 NM in the S semicircle, and winds of at least 34/45
>knots in all quadrants  [source: BoM High Seas Weather Warning, 08 0758UTC,
>BoM Sydney], I think that in the interest of public safety that the BoM
>should call these systems Sub-Tropical Cyclones when winds reach gale force
>in all quadrants, and given a category status the same way tropical
>cyclones are.
>
>If we assume maximum wind gusts of 84 knots [60 knots + 40 percent], this
>gives maximum wind gusts in the region of 155 km/hr, which is a high Cat 2
>system with the potential to cause significant damage. From what I have
>heard so far, gusts of about 130 km/hr were actually recorded at Evans Head
>as this system approached the coast, so this is still a high Cat 1 or low
>Cat 2 system by any standard.
>
>A local member of the public this morning said "I was at Byron Bay last
>night, and the weather was amazing - there was a CYCLONE happening there".
>When told that the BoM called it an "East Coast Low", he was astounded.
>"That was a CYCLONE" he replied. Of course, had he been a little further S
>he would have been even more astounded.
>
>The term "East Coast Low", whilst fine for systems when they are below
>cyclone intensity, is grossly inadequate and misleading to the public when
>these systems reach cyclone intensity - the term "Sub-Tropical Cyclone
>Category 1 (or Cat 2)" would capture the public's attention and ensure many
>more people headed the warnings.
>
>Regards,
>Carl.
>
>
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  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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</x-flowed>
From: "Greg Curtis" <curtisg at ecn.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 15:22:25 +1000
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John,

Can testify to the CG. I was Centenary tavern - only a couple of hundred
metres away when it struck. Luckily I saw it, all the people with their
backs to the outside spent the next ten minutes getting themselves off the
ceiling!

Do you know if it struck one of the towers or the wires?

Regards

Greg Curtis


----- Original Message -----
From: John Woodbridge <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: 09 March, 2001 2:16 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx


> Hi  all,
>
> Well the line of TS/CB off the coast finally drifted in, significant
precip
> now at Sumner in the Western suburbs, and a massive CG just hit the HT
lines
> outside the office.  Simulataneous flash and huge bang.  More in the
> distance (with 5kms).  Brisk NE's, temp close to 30C with hum. around 75%.
> Storms don't often come from this direction !  :)
>
> Michael Bath, any report from last night?  Damage etc in an around
Ballina??
>
> John.
>
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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 16:32:17 +1000
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Hi Greg,

I only saw the reflection of the strike out of the office window, so I
presumed it was behind me, i.e. probably the tower just behind the tavern as
this is the highest point in the immediate vicinity.  We had only just come
back from lunching at the tavern ourselves.  Off topic: Apparently "little
Johnie" was there campaigning for Ryan (having lunch in the restuarant more
likely), although I didn't see him.

Today seems to be a day for everything - after that glorious tropical warmth
all day, little SE change blew in around 4:00pm which dropped the temp at
least 5C.

And can you really believe that the Gold Coast Seaway has had 4 and half
inches of rain since 9:00am?

John.
>snip

John,

Can testify to the CG. I was Centenary tavern - only a couple of hundred
metres away when it struck. Luckily I saw it, all the people with their
backs to the outside spent the next ten minutes getting themselves off the
ceiling!

Do you know if it struck one of the towers or the wires?

Regards

Greg Curtis

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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Tropical 'n' Sub Tropical 
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 17:13:48 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Jane</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Being within the tropics really means being between 
the Tropics of Cancer &amp; Capricorn.(ie - roughly north of 
Rockhampton).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Can't answer where subtropics ends (but probably 
mid NSW coast)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Significant rain event - Logan City area ?
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 17:09:56 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi everyone</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That squall line moved in around lunch time with 
the sea breeze. Not a drop of rain at my place (Cleveland). 
However,&nbsp;it&nbsp;looks as though a band of rain with TSs embedded&nbsp;has 
become fixed from around Southport to Logan City. It has remained in situ for 
several hours which would suggest some big totals, possibly flash floods in that 
area.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Can any one advise ?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>From my place the sky is black in that 
direction.</FONT>&nbsp;<FONT face=Arial size=2>Would like some rain here now 
please.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Fri, 09 Mar 2001 18:07:08 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: STW for SE QLD
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

James Chambers reported over 100mm since 2am with lots of lightning and
torrential rain, he phoned it into the BoM.
Going by radar, these things will last alot longer than 5.30, as in the
warning.

Matt Smith


TOP PRIORITY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
at 5:01pm EST on Friday the 9th of March 2001

For the Southeast Coast District

U P D A T E D    W A R N I N G

A line of slow moving thunderstorms currently extend south from the
Sunshine
Coast to the Gold Coast, producing heavy rainfall and localised flash
flooding.

Reports of rainfall in excess of 100mm have already produced some flash
flooding
in coastal areas.

Motorists are advised to take appropriate caution during the heavy
rains.

The next warning will be issued at 5:30pm.

**** NOT FOR BROADCAST AFTER 5:30pm ****

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Fri, 09 Mar 2001 17:31:56 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Peter Baddiley <p.baddiley at bom.gov.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Significant rain event - Logan City area ?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-rich>Simon

Check out last one hour rainfall map display at the Qld Flood Warning
Centre website


http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/seast.shtml


(make sure you click on last one hour rainfalls)


about 100mm in the hour 4pm to 5pm in that area.


Peter



At 17:09 9/03/01 +1100, you wrote: 

>>>>

<excerpt>Hi everyone

  

That squall line moved in around lunch time with the sea breeze. Not a
drop of rain at my place (Cleveland). However, it looks as though a band
of rain with TSs embedded has become fixed from around Southport to Logan
City. It has remained in situ for several hours which would suggest some
big totals, possibly flash floods in that area.

  

Can any one advise ?

  

From my place the sky is black in that direction. Would like some rain
here now please.

  

  

Simon 

  

</excerpt><<<<<<<<






-----------------------------------------------------------------

Peter Baddiley, Supervising Engineer Hydrology

                Bureau of Meteorology

                GPO Box 413

                BRISBANE  QLD  4001

                AUSTRALIA

Phone: (+61) 07 3239 8768         Fax  : (+61) 07 3239 8687

EMAIL: p.baddiley at bom.gov.au

WWW  : http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld
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</x-rich>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: PHOTOS : Storms off the coast  (quack, quack)
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 19:20:16 +1100
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But were they quacking  !

( All those who missed an earlier post by Blair will not get this joke.)


Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, 9 March 2001 12:05
Subject: Re: aus-wx: PHOTOS : Storms off the coast (was FINALLY something to
photograph)


> Hi all
>
> The line of Cb's off the coast this morning have looked quite spectacular
at
> times - a lot of overshoots, some lovely hard updrafts and even some
pileus!
>
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_01.jpg
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_02.jpg
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_03.jpg
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_04.jpg
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Dorrell's" <keithd at lis.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, March 09, 2001 9:18 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast (was FINALLY something to
> photograph)
>
>
> > Hi Anthony and list,
> >
> > A line of storms is just passing through here (Buckendoon near Lismore)
at
> > 0900only a few CC's observed and a few rumbles heard, wind Easterly
> gusting
> > to about 15 knots with showers.
> >
> > We've had 304 mm since , with 104mm from 1700-2300 last night when I got
> > home from the SES where we were clearing many fallen trees from the
> Pacific
> > hwy around Woodburn also About 18 houses with roof damage and leaks, due
> to
> > the high winds. I would say that my rain Gauge would have been a bit
under
> > reading yesterday evening as the heavy rain was blowing horizontally(my
> wind
> > estimate is in the 40- 60 Knot range), with branches leaves and twigs
> being
> > blown of the trees . We had a couple of trees blown over and a large
> > trampoline blown into my dam which today is overflowing and the
> surrounding
> > river flats continue to fill. We expect to cut off by tomorrow afternoon
> if
> > the Wilson's and Richmond rivers go major flooding Below Coraki.
> >
> > Unfortunately ran out of film as the storm line was approaching so no
> > photos.
> >
> > Keith Dorrell
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Friday, March 09, 2001 6:36 AM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast (was FINALLY something to
> > photograph)
> >
> >
> > > Hi Ben and all,
> > >
> > > Conversely - if any Brisbanites are up early enough they can see the
> > > storms off the coast (another line has formed).  It looks like a
squall
> > > line on radar, although the direction is orthogonal to what you'd
expect
> > > it to move.  They might move closer though as the low continues to
move
> > > west!
> > >
> > > Some nice updrafts on the Cb's - and lightning on tracker.  Some As/Ac
> > > blocking some of the views though.
> > >
> > > Will be interesting to see what happens today - I would say there's
the
> > > chance of TS around, depending on what our DP's do.  I would expect
the
> > > winds to remain general N'ly today - the W'ly and NW'ly o'night was
> > > quite warm and moist (for a W'ly) due to the winds wrapping around the
> > > low.  If we can get some PBL DP's in the high teens and temps up near
30
> > > (or higher), hopefully it might help spark something off.
> > >
> > > Us Brisbanites can only live in hope :-)
> > >
> > > AC
> > >
> > > Ben Quinn wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Hi all
> > > >
> > > > Thanks James
> > > >
> > > > Are any Brisbanites up late enough to watch the lightning off the
> coast
> > > > tonight? It's not very frequent (flashes every 15-30 seconds with
only
> a
> > > > handfull of visible bolts) but the structure of the storms is quite
> > amazing
> > > > and very very photogenic
> > > >
> > > > There was some much more frequent lightning to the north around
Fraser
> > > > Island last night around 2am or so
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
> > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, March 07, 2001 7:56 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: FINALLY something to photograph
> > > >
> > > > > Hey Ben, all
> > > > >
> > > > > Some great shots there!!  I especially like #3 and #6 - awesome.
> > > > >
> > > > > Another great sunset this evening as well.
> > > > >
> > > > > Looking at radar, there's a huge heap of precip right on and off
the
> > > > coast.
> > > > > Its pretty frustrating seeing most of it just pass by :-(  As I
type
> > this,
> > > > > its just starting to rain lightly, but I'm not expecting too much
> from
> > > > this
> > > > > lot.
> > > > >
> > > > > Regards
> > > > > James Chambers
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Hi everyone
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Others have given a run down of the day already so i'll just
paste
> > some
> > > > > > URL's
> > > > > >
> > > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_01.jpg (offshore cb complex)
> > > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_02.jpg (ditto)
> > > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_03.jpg (ditto)
> > > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_04.jpg (shelf cloud in
eastern
> > > > suburbs
> > > > > of
> > > > > > bris)
> > > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_05.jpg (ditto)
> > > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_06.jpg (awesome sunset -
> managed
> > to
> > > > > > squeeze a shot in from work before being dragged back inside by
my
> > ears)
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
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> > your
> > > > >  message.
> > > >
>
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > > --
> > > Anthony Cornelius
> > > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > > (07) 3390 4812
> > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > >
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> > >  message.
> >
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> > >
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 09 Mar 2001 19:20:17 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: PHOTOS : Storms off the coast  (quack, quack)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Michael,

seems that everyone's quacking except the duck <g>!!

Jane

Michael Thompson wrote:

> But were they quacking  !
>
> ( All those who missed an earlier post by Blair will not get this joke.)
>

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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Reply-To: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
	<aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Jimmy may be right - AVN goes for rain to spread south
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 19:40:03 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au

I think the AVN and NGP models did a good job of predicting this rain event,
although under cooking it a little.

It is interesting therefore to note that AVN has changed its precipitation
prognosis for Saturday into Sunday. Previously it had steadfastly over
several model runs kept the bulk of the rain north of Newcastle. Now instead
it has moderate falls down along the central and Illawarra coasts late
Saturday and into Sunday morning.

Of all the models I have always given AVN more credence than most.

So Jimmy may have pulled a coup on this one !!! Even I was sceptical as the
southern bands are being wisked towards NZ.

We will see ( as Jimmy would say )

Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com



--
Visit WeatherZone, the site for weather freaks
http://www.weatherzone.com.au

--
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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Jimmy may be right - AVN goes for rain to spread south
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 19:40:03 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I think the AVN and NGP models did a good job of predicting this rain event,
although under cooking it a little.

It is interesting therefore to note that AVN has changed its precipitation
prognosis for Saturday into Sunday. Previously it had steadfastly over
several model runs kept the bulk of the rain north of Newcastle. Now instead
it has moderate falls down along the central and Illawarra coasts late
Saturday and into Sunday morning.

Of all the models I have always given AVN more credence than most.

So Jimmy may have pulled a coup on this one !!! Even I was sceptical as the
southern bands are being wisked towards NZ.

We will see ( as Jimmy would say )

Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com


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From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 19:21:02 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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John,

I have spoken to Anthony Cornelius this afternoon/evening and he has
informed me of a "train effect" thunderstorm affecting the southern suburbs
of Brisbane.  He suggested that one of the fellow ASWA members had had well
in excess of 100mm during the afternoon.  While on the phone I was also
given quite a shock.  Anthony said to me " WHOA - you
should...CCCCCCCCRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAACCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!".  Apparently a CG hit within about 100m and boy was it loud on the
phone - it hurt my ear!!!!

Anyway.....hope the QLD'ers are enjoying it.

Regards,

Macca

----- Original Message -----
From: John Woodbridge <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 09, 2001 5:32 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx


> Hi Greg,
>
> I only saw the reflection of the strike out of the office window, so I
> presumed it was behind me, i.e. probably the tower just behind the tavern
as
> this is the highest point in the immediate vicinity.  We had only just
come
> back from lunching at the tavern ourselves.  Off topic: Apparently "little
> Johnie" was there campaigning for Ryan (having lunch in the restuarant
more
> likely), although I didn't see him.
>
> Today seems to be a day for everything - after that glorious tropical
warmth
> all day, little SE change blew in around 4:00pm which dropped the temp at
> least 5C.
>
> And can you really believe that the Gold Coast Seaway has had 4 and half
> inches of rain since 9:00am?
>
> John.
> >snip
>
> John,
>
> Can testify to the CG. I was Centenary tavern - only a couple of hundred
> metres away when it struck. Luckily I saw it, all the people with their
> backs to the outside spent the next ten minutes getting themselves off the
> ceiling!
>
> Do you know if it struck one of the towers or the wires?
>
> Regards
>
> Greg Curtis
>
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>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 09 Mar 2001 19:27:01 +1100
From: Keith Barnett <weather at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Never seen this ONE?!!(large wave and storm surge warning!)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

And one thing more that I've never seen, that was in this morning's
early forecast 'extremely torrential rain' and 'extraordinary rain'. I
guess these used to be called 'very heavy to flood rain'..I think from
memory the extraordinary rain was in the description of what had fallen,
not the forecast. I didn't really think the falls were all that out of
the ordinary..with the possible exception of Dorrigo.

Dean McWhinney wrote:
> 
>                          IDW02N00
>     BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
>     300 Elizabeth St. Sydney, Ph [02] 9296 1555; www.bom.gov.au
> 
> NSW LARGE WAVE WARNING
> Issued at 6:36pm on Thursday the 8th of March 2001
> 
> Wave heights of up to 5 metres are expected in the surf zone
> between Ballina and Wooli tonight.
> 
> The next astronomical high tide at Sydney is 1.5 metres at 8.40pm
> 
> Check local tide time differences that apply to your area.
> 
> The State Emergency Service advises people in foreshore
> locations that unusually large waves encroaching on land
> above the normal high tide level can be dangerous.
> There is a possibility of erosion and damage to buildings.
> If your house is damaged or threatened contact your local
> State Emergency Service on 132 500 for emergency assistance.
> 
> Other Warnings or Advices Current Along the Coast
> 
> Storm warning between Cape Byron and Wooli.
> Gale warning Cape Byron to Tweed Heads.
> Gale warning Wooli to Seal Rocks.
> Strong wind warning Seal Rocks to Broken Bay.
> 
> Synoptic Situation
> 
> At 6pm an East Coast Low near 990hPa
> was centred 30km east of Ballina.
> 
> Current Movement of Pressure System
> 
> W at 5 km/h
> 
> Remarks
> 
> The next astronomical high tide at Yamba is 1.3 metres at 8.34pm.__
> ************************************************
> Dean McWhinney
> Year 9 student,ameture weather watcher
> and fisherman/sailor
> Email:mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2001 5:41 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Coast Low - Hybrid?
> 
> > Hi MB and all,
> >
> > This low has been rather interesting.  It originally started as part of
> > an upper level low and trough and 300 and 500mb respectively.  This
> > allowed the low to develop and it has done well so far.  However over
> > the past 48-72hrs it appears to have been changing.  Previously, when
> > they low was approaching the SE'lies were cold and dry (well, they felt
> > that way), a couple of days ago the SE'lies turned more S'ly - but the
> > DP's increased and so did the temperatures (a little).  I know we had
> > showers, but the winds distinctly felt less "southern" and more
> > "tropical."  The other thing that has been interesting is the way it has
> > been structured on sat pics - yesterday it looked like it had an "eye"
> > at times!  Also interesting is the warming at 300-500mb, in fact the
> > warming has been so significant that the 300mb low has broken down!  And
> > a 300mb ridge has taken its place.  The 500mb circulation has also
> > somewhat broken down, there is a weak ridge over the centre, but it
> > looks like there is still a weak cyclonic circulation at 500mb?  (As
> > opposed to anti-cyclonic).  The GMS-5 analysis shows an area of
> > divergence over the region, with a 200-300mb anti-cyclonic curve.  The
> > overall shear shows an upper level ridge "dint" in the general pattern.
> >
> > As I speak now, people in IRC are commenting how there is an eye on
> > radar - it can clearly be seen on Brisbane broad!
> >
> > It seems close to a TC - although by definition not quite there yet due
> > to a few left-over cold cored characteristics.  Any comments on this?
> > How many cold cored lows around Australia progress into the tropical (or
> > hybrid) stage?
> >
> > AC
> >
> > Michael Bath wrote:
> > >
> > > Hi all,
> > >
> > > Check out the Grafton broad scale radar loop, lovely circulation like a
> TC
> > > just off the NSW North Coast. I've saved one here:
> > > http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/200103080410.gif
> > >
> > > 51mm overnight in heavy showers and a further 45mm in the 6 hours to 3pm
> at
> > > McLeans Ridges. Heavier falls have occurred in other parts of the
> Northern
> > > Rivers and Mid North Coast.
> > >
> > > Winds are gusting to about 40 knots here.
> > >
> > > Michael
> > >
> > >   =============================================================
> > >   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
> > >   McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
> > >   NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
> > >   ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
> > >   =============================================================
> > >
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> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > --
> > Anthony Cornelius
> > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > (07) 3390 4812
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 09 Mar 2001 19:37:18 +1100
From: Keith Barnett <weather at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Jimmy may be right - AVN goes for rain to spread south
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

And yet tonight's Channel 7 news said fine for Sunday, and long dry
spells developing by Saturday afternoon, in Sydney..

Michael Thompson wrote:
> 
> I think the AVN and NGP models did a good job of predicting this rain event,
> although under cooking it a little.
> 
> It is interesting therefore to note that AVN has changed its precipitation
> prognosis for Saturday into Sunday. Previously it had steadfastly over
> several model runs kept the bulk of the rain north of Newcastle. Now instead
> it has moderate falls down along the central and Illawarra coasts late
> Saturday and into Sunday morning.
> 
> Of all the models I have always given AVN more credence than most.
> 
> So Jimmy may have pulled a coup on this one !!! Even I was sceptical as the
> southern bands are being wisked towards NZ.
> 
> We will see ( as Jimmy would say )
> 
> Michael Thompson
> http://ozthunder.com
> 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 09 Mar 2001 19:20:17 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: PHOTOS : Storms off the coast  (quack, quack)
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Michael,

seems that everyone's quacking except the duck <g>!!

Jane

Michael Thompson wrote:

> But were they quacking  !
>
> ( All those who missed an earlier post by Blair will not get this joke.)
>

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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From: "Damien Howes" <dhowes at flatrate.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast  (was FINALLY something to photograph)
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 02:05:16 +1100
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Hi All, This morning Anthony said......  It looks like a squall
> line on radar, although the direction is orthogonal to what you'd expect
> it to move.  They might move closer though as the low continues to move
> west!
>
>> Will be interesting to see what happens today - I would say there's the
> chance of TS around, depending on what our DP's do.  I would expect the
> winds to remain general N'ly today - the W'ly and NW'ly o'night was
> quite warm and moist (for a W'ly) due to the winds wrapping around the
> low.  If we can get some PBL DP's in the high teens and temps up near 30
> (or higher), hopefully it might help spark something off.
>
> Us Brisbanites can only live in hope :-)
>
 It all worked out nicely it seems. A very nice line of cells are forming
just in from the coastline from Caloundra to the NSW border. At 0330utc my
house is in the middle of the only real gap in the line.  Damien.
> > >
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> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: PHOTOS : Storms off the coast  (quack, quack)
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 19:20:16 +1100
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But were they quacking  !

( All those who missed an earlier post by Blair will not get this joke.)


Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, 9 March 2001 12:05
Subject: Re: aus-wx: PHOTOS : Storms off the coast (was FINALLY something to
photograph)


> Hi all
>
> The line of Cb's off the coast this morning have looked quite spectacular
at
> times - a lot of overshoots, some lovely hard updrafts and even some
pileus!
>
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_01.jpg
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_02.jpg
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_03.jpg
> http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_04.jpg
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Dorrell's" <keithd at lis.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, March 09, 2001 9:18 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast (was FINALLY something to
> photograph)
>
>
> > Hi Anthony and list,
> >
> > A line of storms is just passing through here (Buckendoon near Lismore)
at
> > 0900only a few CC's observed and a few rumbles heard, wind Easterly
> gusting
> > to about 15 knots with showers.
> >
> > We've had 304 mm since , with 104mm from 1700-2300 last night when I got
> > home from the SES where we were clearing many fallen trees from the
> Pacific
> > hwy around Woodburn also About 18 houses with roof damage and leaks, due
> to
> > the high winds. I would say that my rain Gauge would have been a bit
under
> > reading yesterday evening as the heavy rain was blowing horizontally(my
> wind
> > estimate is in the 40- 60 Knot range), with branches leaves and twigs
> being
> > blown of the trees . We had a couple of trees blown over and a large
> > trampoline blown into my dam which today is overflowing and the
> surrounding
> > river flats continue to fill. We expect to cut off by tomorrow afternoon
> if
> > the Wilson's and Richmond rivers go major flooding Below Coraki.
> >
> > Unfortunately ran out of film as the storm line was approaching so no
> > photos.
> >
> > Keith Dorrell
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Friday, March 09, 2001 6:36 AM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast (was FINALLY something to
> > photograph)
> >
> >
> > > Hi Ben and all,
> > >
> > > Conversely - if any Brisbanites are up early enough they can see the
> > > storms off the coast (another line has formed).  It looks like a
squall
> > > line on radar, although the direction is orthogonal to what you'd
expect
> > > it to move.  They might move closer though as the low continues to
move
> > > west!
> > >
> > > Some nice updrafts on the Cb's - and lightning on tracker.  Some As/Ac
> > > blocking some of the views though.
> > >
> > > Will be interesting to see what happens today - I would say there's
the
> > > chance of TS around, depending on what our DP's do.  I would expect
the
> > > winds to remain general N'ly today - the W'ly and NW'ly o'night was
> > > quite warm and moist (for a W'ly) due to the winds wrapping around the
> > > low.  If we can get some PBL DP's in the high teens and temps up near
30
> > > (or higher), hopefully it might help spark something off.
> > >
> > > Us Brisbanites can only live in hope :-)
> > >
> > > AC
> > >
> > > Ben Quinn wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Hi all
> > > >
> > > > Thanks James
> > > >
> > > > Are any Brisbanites up late enough to watch the lightning off the
> coast
> > > > tonight? It's not very frequent (flashes every 15-30 seconds with
only
> a
> > > > handfull of visible bolts) but the structure of the storms is quite
> > amazing
> > > > and very very photogenic
> > > >
> > > > There was some much more frequent lightning to the north around
Fraser
> > > > Island last night around 2am or so
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
> > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, March 07, 2001 7:56 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: FINALLY something to photograph
> > > >
> > > > > Hey Ben, all
> > > > >
> > > > > Some great shots there!!  I especially like #3 and #6 - awesome.
> > > > >
> > > > > Another great sunset this evening as well.
> > > > >
> > > > > Looking at radar, there's a huge heap of precip right on and off
the
> > > > coast.
> > > > > Its pretty frustrating seeing most of it just pass by :-(  As I
type
> > this,
> > > > > its just starting to rain lightly, but I'm not expecting too much
> from
> > > > this
> > > > > lot.
> > > > >
> > > > > Regards
> > > > > James Chambers
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Hi everyone
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Others have given a run down of the day already so i'll just
paste
> > some
> > > > > > URL's
> > > > > >
> > > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_01.jpg (offshore cb complex)
> > > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_02.jpg (ditto)
> > > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_03.jpg (ditto)
> > > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_04.jpg (shelf cloud in
eastern
> > > > suburbs
> > > > > of
> > > > > > bris)
> > > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_05.jpg (ditto)
> > > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_06.jpg (awesome sunset -
> managed
> > to
> > > > > > squeeze a shot in from work before being dragged back inside by
my
> > ears)
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
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> > > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> > your
> > > > >  message.
> > > >
>
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > > --
> > > Anthony Cornelius
> > > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > > (07) 3390 4812
> > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > >
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> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
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>
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From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: PHOTOS : Storms off the coast  (was FINALLY something to photograph)
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 11:05:52 +1000
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Hi all

The line of Cb's off the coast this morning have looked quite spectacular at
times - a lot of overshoots, some lovely hard updrafts and even some pileus!

http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_01.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_02.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_03.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/090301_04.jpg



----- Original Message -----
From: "Dorrell's" <keithd at lis.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 09, 2001 9:18 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast (was FINALLY something to
photograph)


> Hi Anthony and list,
>
> A line of storms is just passing through here (Buckendoon near Lismore) at
> 0900only a few CC's observed and a few rumbles heard, wind Easterly
gusting
> to about 15 knots with showers.
>
> We've had 304 mm since , with 104mm from 1700-2300 last night when I got
> home from the SES where we were clearing many fallen trees from the
Pacific
> hwy around Woodburn also About 18 houses with roof damage and leaks, due
to
> the high winds. I would say that my rain Gauge would have been a bit under
> reading yesterday evening as the heavy rain was blowing horizontally(my
wind
> estimate is in the 40- 60 Knot range), with branches leaves and twigs
being
> blown of the trees . We had a couple of trees blown over and a large
> trampoline blown into my dam which today is overflowing and the
surrounding
> river flats continue to fill. We expect to cut off by tomorrow afternoon
if
> the Wilson's and Richmond rivers go major flooding Below Coraki.
>
> Unfortunately ran out of film as the storm line was approaching so no
> photos.
>
> Keith Dorrell
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, March 09, 2001 6:36 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast (was FINALLY something to
> photograph)
>
>
> > Hi Ben and all,
> >
> > Conversely - if any Brisbanites are up early enough they can see the
> > storms off the coast (another line has formed).  It looks like a squall
> > line on radar, although the direction is orthogonal to what you'd expect
> > it to move.  They might move closer though as the low continues to move
> > west!
> >
> > Some nice updrafts on the Cb's - and lightning on tracker.  Some As/Ac
> > blocking some of the views though.
> >
> > Will be interesting to see what happens today - I would say there's the
> > chance of TS around, depending on what our DP's do.  I would expect the
> > winds to remain general N'ly today - the W'ly and NW'ly o'night was
> > quite warm and moist (for a W'ly) due to the winds wrapping around the
> > low.  If we can get some PBL DP's in the high teens and temps up near 30
> > (or higher), hopefully it might help spark something off.
> >
> > Us Brisbanites can only live in hope :-)
> >
> > AC
> >
> > Ben Quinn wrote:
> > >
> > > Hi all
> > >
> > > Thanks James
> > >
> > > Are any Brisbanites up late enough to watch the lightning off the
coast
> > > tonight? It's not very frequent (flashes every 15-30 seconds with only
a
> > > handfull of visible bolts) but the structure of the storms is quite
> amazing
> > > and very very photogenic
> > >
> > > There was some much more frequent lightning to the north around Fraser
> > > Island last night around 2am or so
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, March 07, 2001 7:56 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: FINALLY something to photograph
> > >
> > > > Hey Ben, all
> > > >
> > > > Some great shots there!!  I especially like #3 and #6 - awesome.
> > > >
> > > > Another great sunset this evening as well.
> > > >
> > > > Looking at radar, there's a huge heap of precip right on and off the
> > > coast.
> > > > Its pretty frustrating seeing most of it just pass by :-(  As I type
> this,
> > > > its just starting to rain lightly, but I'm not expecting too much
from
> > > this
> > > > lot.
> > > >
> > > > Regards
> > > > James Chambers
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Hi everyone
> > > > >
> > > > > Others have given a run down of the day already so i'll just paste
> some
> > > > > URL's
> > > > >
> > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_01.jpg (offshore cb complex)
> > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_02.jpg (ditto)
> > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_03.jpg (ditto)
> > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_04.jpg (shelf cloud in eastern
> > > suburbs
> > > > of
> > > > > bris)
> > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_05.jpg (ditto)
> > > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_06.jpg (awesome sunset -
managed
> to
> > > > > squeeze a shot in from work before being dragged back inside by my
> ears)
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > >
> > >
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> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > --
> > Anthony Cornelius
> > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > (07) 3390 4812
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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From: "Dorrell's" <keithd at lis.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast  (was FINALLY something to photograph)
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 09:18:58 +1000
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Hi Anthony and list,

A line of storms is just passing through here (Buckendoon near Lismore) at
0900only a few CC's observed and a few rumbles heard, wind Easterly gusting
to about 15 knots with showers.

We've had 304 mm since , with 104mm from 1700-2300 last night when I got
home from the SES where we were clearing many fallen trees from the Pacific
hwy around Woodburn also About 18 houses with roof damage and leaks, due to
the high winds. I would say that my rain Gauge would have been a bit under
reading yesterday evening as the heavy rain was blowing horizontally(my wind
estimate is in the 40- 60 Knot range), with branches leaves and twigs being
blown of the trees . We had a couple of trees blown over and a large
trampoline blown into my dam which today is overflowing and the surrounding
river flats continue to fill. We expect to cut off by tomorrow afternoon if
the Wilson's and Richmond rivers go major flooding Below Coraki.

Unfortunately ran out of film as the storm line was approaching so no
photos.

Keith Dorrell
----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 09, 2001 6:36 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off the coast (was FINALLY something to
photograph)


> Hi Ben and all,
>
> Conversely - if any Brisbanites are up early enough they can see the
> storms off the coast (another line has formed).  It looks like a squall
> line on radar, although the direction is orthogonal to what you'd expect
> it to move.  They might move closer though as the low continues to move
> west!
>
> Some nice updrafts on the Cb's - and lightning on tracker.  Some As/Ac
> blocking some of the views though.
>
> Will be interesting to see what happens today - I would say there's the
> chance of TS around, depending on what our DP's do.  I would expect the
> winds to remain general N'ly today - the W'ly and NW'ly o'night was
> quite warm and moist (for a W'ly) due to the winds wrapping around the
> low.  If we can get some PBL DP's in the high teens and temps up near 30
> (or higher), hopefully it might help spark something off.
>
> Us Brisbanites can only live in hope :-)
>
> AC
>
> Ben Quinn wrote:
> >
> > Hi all
> >
> > Thanks James
> >
> > Are any Brisbanites up late enough to watch the lightning off the coast
> > tonight? It's not very frequent (flashes every 15-30 seconds with only a
> > handfull of visible bolts) but the structure of the storms is quite
amazing
> > and very very photogenic
> >
> > There was some much more frequent lightning to the north around Fraser
> > Island last night around 2am or so
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Wednesday, March 07, 2001 7:56 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: FINALLY something to photograph
> >
> > > Hey Ben, all
> > >
> > > Some great shots there!!  I especially like #3 and #6 - awesome.
> > >
> > > Another great sunset this evening as well.
> > >
> > > Looking at radar, there's a huge heap of precip right on and off the
> > coast.
> > > Its pretty frustrating seeing most of it just pass by :-(  As I type
this,
> > > its just starting to rain lightly, but I'm not expecting too much from
> > this
> > > lot.
> > >
> > > Regards
> > > James Chambers
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > > Hi everyone
> > > >
> > > > Others have given a run down of the day already so i'll just paste
some
> > > > URL's
> > > >
> > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_01.jpg (offshore cb complex)
> > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_02.jpg (ditto)
> > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_03.jpg (ditto)
> > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_04.jpg (shelf cloud in eastern
> > suburbs
> > > of
> > > > bris)
> > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_05.jpg (ditto)
> > > > http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/060301_06.jpg (awesome sunset - managed
to
> > > > squeeze a shot in from work before being dragged back inside by my
ears)
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>

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From: "Pearce" <rpearce2 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 20:23:21 +1100
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Hi all,

Just thought I would relay some info from Anthony cos he has lost power at
his place...I will let him fill in the details when he gets back online.
Major highlights that he has experienced this afternoon include:
-Seeing houses with kneedeep water in them
-Roads partially washed away
-Roads covered in half a foot of water across southern Brisbane
-Rain so heavy he couldn't see signposts and missed turnoffs
-Extensive lightning
-Taking 1.5 hours to get from Woodridge to Belmont(approx 13km?)

As I said, I don't like reporting other people's stuff as I like to let them
relate it, but I don't know how long he'll be off for and thought some of
the info might be useful in a real-time sense.

Currently, the line of storms is still in place across Brisbane...some parts
of southern Brisbane have had green/pink over them on radar for 4 hours
nonstop.

One final point(and mine, not necessarily Anthony's)...

I think the BoM did quite a poor job on this event(and no I'm not just
saying that), in that warnings were not issued for anything until 4:33pm, at
least 2 hours after the torrential rain started in the southern suburbs and
3 hours after Gold Coast started being hammered. In this time, totals
accumulated well over 100mm and flooding was already well established. When
the warning did eventually come out, there was only the suggestion that
there "may" be heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding. This was
rectified approx 30 mins later...but a bit late!!!!! The afternoon forecast
continued to read "a few showers. Isolated thunderstorms". Sure, this was
not predicted in the morning, thats fine. However, what ever happened to
good ol' nowcasting?! Flooding is occurring...so lets issue a flood warning
:) Severe thunderstorm is occurring...you get the idea. *End of rant and
rave*

Incidentally, 400mm totals in parts of southern Brisbane are likely by
tomorrow morning.

Matt

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
	<aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] RE: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 21:02:31 +0930
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Well said Matt. Adaptability isnt one of the BOMS strong points

 < big snip .....
One final point(and mine, not necessarily Anthony's)...

I think the BoM did quite a poor job on this event(and no I'm not just
saying that), in that warnings were not issued for anything until 4:33pm, at
least 2 hours after the torrential rain started in the southern suburbs and
3 hours after Gold Coast started being hammered. In this time, totals
accumulated well over 100mm and flooding was already well established. When
the warning did eventually come out, there was only the suggestion that
there "may" be heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding. This was
rectified approx 30 mins later...but a bit late!!!!! The afternoon forecast
continued to read "a few showers. Isolated thunderstorms". Sure, this was
not predicted in the morning, thats fine. However, what ever happened to
good ol' nowcasting?! Flooding is occurring...so lets issue a flood warning
:) Severe thunderstorm is occurring...you get the idea. *End of rant and
rave*

Incidentally, 400mm totals in parts of southern Brisbane are likely by
tomorrow morning.

Matt .....>


--
Visit WeatherZone, the site for weather freaks
http://www.weatherzone.com.au

--
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From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2001 21:02:31 +0930
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Well said Matt. Adaptability isnt one of the BOMS strong points

 < big snip .....
One final point(and mine, not necessarily Anthony's)...

I think the BoM did quite a poor job on this event(and no I'm not just
saying that), in that warnings were not issued for anything until 4:33pm, at
least 2 hours after the torrential rain started in the southern suburbs and
3 hours after Gold Coast started being hammered. In this time, totals
accumulated well over 100mm and flooding was already well established. When
the warning did eventually come out, there was only the suggestion that
there "may" be heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding. This was
rectified approx 30 mins later...but a bit late!!!!! The afternoon forecast
continued to read "a few showers. Isolated thunderstorms". Sure, this was
not predicted in the morning, thats fine. However, what ever happened to
good ol' nowcasting?! Flooding is occurring...so lets issue a flood warning
:) Severe thunderstorm is occurring...you get the idea. *End of rant and
rave*

Incidentally, 400mm totals in parts of southern Brisbane are likely by
tomorrow morning.

Matt .....>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: 9 Mar 2001 03:47:27 -0800
X-Sent: 9 Mar 2001 11:47:27 GMT
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Tessa Thomas <tessat at ivillage.com>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx
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Hi all,

I live in Redcliffe & work at MacGregor.  I left work at 5pm and was stuck in kessels road due to trucks broken down. then I made it to sunnybank and got my car stuck trying to cross a flooded creek.
Had plenty of help to push me to the side of the road (I think it was the road still couldn't see it)

Then i was helped to get my car turned around to go back the other way - the road had become to dangerous to cross.

too much traffic to try get home, so went to my bosses house in sunnybank(brand new and filling up with water)

Decided to risk trying to get home again. eventually made it home at 9pm!!!!  Had to stop heaps because of heavy rain and my car was making banging clunking noises.

Was a great adventure even though I was scared.

Tessa :)


_________________________________________________________________
iVillage.com: Solutions for Your Life 
Check out the most exciting women's community on the Web   
http://www.ivillage.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical 'n' Sub Tropical 
Date: Fri, 09 Mar 2001 12:28:24 GMT
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On Fri, 9 Mar 2001 17:13:48 +1100, "Simon Clarke"
<nomis66 at bigpond.com> wrote:

>Jane
>
>Being within the tropics really means being between the Tropics of Cancer & Capricorn.(ie - roughly north of Rockhampton).
>
>Can't answer where subtropics ends (but probably mid NSW coast)

Jane, Simon

Subtropics generally taken as ending at 40 degrees N or S -- i.e.
around Bass Strait. That's from the UKMO Meteorological Glossary.

Laurier

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon)
Date: 09 Mar 01 23:24:06 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Jimmy may be right - AVN goes for rain to spread south
Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway 
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Hello Keith!

09 Mar 01 19:37, you wrote to All:

 KB> And yet tonight's Channel 7 news said fine for Sunday, and long dry
 KB> spells developing by Saturday afternoon, in Sydney..

Hmm, Melbourne has been one long dry spell.  Anyone know any good rain dances?
;-)

Loving the warm weather, but we need rain!

Tony, VK3JED

.. We might be nerds, but at least we're off the streets.
--
|Fidonet:  Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
|
| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Rainfall intensities in SE Qld; wind on NSW N Coast
Date: Fri, 09 Mar 2001 14:54:49 GMT
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Some generous rainfall intensities in SE Qld this afternoon and
tonight! The best hourly fall I can find is at Nambour DPI which
recorded 153.2mm between 7 and 8pm, 30.6mm falling in 10 minutes to
7.47. Beerburrum recorded 87.8 between 9 and 10pm and a further 40.6
to 11pm. Earlier, Brisbane City chalked up 83.8 between 5 and 6pm, and
Archerfield AP 92.6 in 70 minutes to 5.30pm. Totals between 9am and
10pm, but mostly falling in a few hours, are:

Archerfield AP 118.0
Beerburrum 173.8
Brisbane City 137.8
Brisbane AP 75.4
Gold Coast Seaway 117.0
Nambour DPI 193.4
Tewantin 88.6

For those that would like to do their own arithmetic, I've put the
runs of AWS obs at http://www.australianweathernews.com/temp/MGQS0.TXT

Two other areas of interest at the moment (midnight Fri/Sat) are the
NSW Northern Tablelands and here in the Blue Mountains. Glen Innes
recorded 35mm between 6 and 9pm and a further 15mm to midnight, giving
it 100mm in the past 21 hours in steady rain. Katoomba has had 51mm to
9pm in steady rain which started after 6am.

In yesterday's event, the highest wind speeds were at Evans Head, with
a 10 minute average of 100km/h and a peak gust of 139km/h at 5.15pm.
There was an interesting secondary surge with a gust of 109km/h at
7.09pm, followed by a backing of the wind from S to SE. Casino had a
peak gust of 92km/h at 8pm, coinciding with its lowest pressure and a
wind shift from 210 to 180. Other AWS's in the area weren't all that
remarkable given the situation, though what is interesting is that
both Armidale and Glen Innes, somewhat removed from the main action,
were recording gusts between 50 and 70km/h much of the day. 

The main statistics for Thursday and Friday  -- 24 hour and
short-duration rainfall and wind information -- are now up on my site.
Follow the links to News and Extremes, then click on the dates.

Cheers from a very soggy Blackheath.
 
-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://www.australianweathernews.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Absolutely Phenomenal rain in SE Qld
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 01:42:15 +1000
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Hi everyone

Well you all know by now that it absolutely dumped on parts of SE Qld Friday
afternoon and evening.  My area, Woodridge, was one of the hardest hit
areas.

I finished work at 2pm, did some chores then flew to the Sunnybank Plaza
rooftop carpark.  The sky was filled with cu, large cu and Cb.  Because of
all the cloud, it was hard to see the storm structures but at one point, a
lovely, sharp, cumuli anvil showed itself closely to my ESE.  Also, there
was CG lightning to my SW, while the sky to the N was rather featureless,
but had that "heavy rain look".  Anyway I drove towards home and was
surprised by a few CGs that seemed to come out of ordinary looking
cloudbases.  About 1km from home I now noticed the storm coming from the
NNNE and it started to spit some huge drops onto the windscreen, and thunder
was becoming louder.

I got home (Woodridge) at around 2.35pm and the lightning had increased
markedly, and there was deep booming thunder.

At 2.40pm it hit.

Absolutely torrential rain fell up to about 4pmish - of about 100mm.  I
couldn't tell because the 'inner gauge' had overflowed considerably into the
bigger gauge.  (I have a Nylex 1000)  I then rang the BoM to say that I'd
had about 100mm, but I would ring them back when it finished.  There was
then a period of light/mod rain, so I hopped online to check radar and obs,
noticing no warnings.  I was only online for about 10mins when the CGs again
became too close and torrential rain returned.

The rain soon became heavier than before 4pm!  Visibility down to less than
100m at times and the houses down my road started to go under - about a
dozen or so houses had 60cm of water going through them.  The people that
were home had moved their cars up the road and were carrying belongings into
their car to 'keep dry'.  Of course these things were already soaking wet -
I guess these people were in shock.  Many people weren't home, and would
have arrived to a huge mess :-(  It was really quite sad, especially as I
looked to the north and kept seeing more dark grey approaching.

At around 5pm, with the rain still bucketing down, an extremely close CG
(with associated flang) occurred, and instantly the power went out.  My
place was blacked out until after 10pm.  Areas such as Greenslopes will be
blacked out for much longer as they also had powerlines coming down in high
winds.

The rain eased a little and by 6pm we'd had 186.5mm (I rang the BoM again)
and it had finished just after 8pm, leaving me a grand total of 218.5mm.
This was the biggest downpour I can recall since 1993 (I think) when TC Rewa
and a trough interacted causing widespread flash flooding.  This instance
(9/3/01) was probably more intense and more prolonged than that event.

Tonight while stuck at home, staring at the candles and listening to the
radio I became aware that almost all main roads in Brisbane at one point
were flooded.  These included Logan Rd, Wembley Rd, Newnham Rd, Creek Rd,
Cavendish Rd, SE Freeway inbound etc etc.  Actually you could say that every
road in many suburbs were flooded at some point - even inner city roads.

Unfortunately several people are missing, and I believe at least one may
have been found dead - I can't confirm that.  Often in a heavy rain event
you can blame people for driving through flooded roads, but in this case,
many roads that had NEVER flooded actually did, and might have surprised the
drivers.  Also, many people do strange or stupid things when its taken 3
hours to get half way home when it usually takes 20mins.

I guess I can talk about the fact that severe thunderstorm warnings weren't
issued until at least 2 hours after it all started but I'll let everyone
else discuss that :-)

Oh what a day.

Regards

James Chambers
The Brisbane & SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: "aussieweather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Blue Mountains rainfall
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 08:05:43 +1100
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Compared to the completely unbelievable rainfall totals from 
QLD yesterday due to those slow moving storms, our rainfall here seems a little 
boring, but however interesting. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>We had steady rain right throughout the day, where as 300m 
down in Penrith, there was only brief showers. Yesterday was a good example of 
the orthographic effect of the mountains. I tend to find its more noticable on a 
overcast Spring or Autumn evening where it will be humid on Penrith and foggy 
rain in the mountains. We have had some nice falls here overnight with 34mm 
falling. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>____________________________<BR>Daniel Weatherhead<BR><A 
href="mailto:weatherhead at ozemail.com.au">weatherhead at ozemail.com.au</A><BR>============================<BR>SYDNEY 
STORM CHASERS<BR><A 
href="http://www.sydneystormchasers.com">http://www.sydneystormchasers.com</A><BR>============================</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Biggest Storm I Have ever seen
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 07:48:17 +1000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=310004121-09032001>That storm last 
night was huge. From Clontarf you could see that the whole storm extended from 
east of Fishermann's Island all the way to Albany Creek area. To me it seemed to 
be rotating. Has anyone got the radar loop saved?</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=310004121-09032001></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=310004121-09032001>David</SPAN></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Absolutely Phenomenal rain in SE Qld
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 07:47:17 +1100
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James and Laurier

I might add that Cleveland about 30 km north east of Woodridge recorded the
"slightly" less than phenomenal total of 14 mm   in yesterday's storm and
most of that actually fell during the early hours of this morning :(

Not surprising really as these storms were locked in position by the unusual
weather circumstances of the past few days - so a deluge in some places,
while others nearby remain reasonably dry.

Never mind Cleveland's day will come again.



Regards
Simon


----- Original Message -----
From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 10, 2001 2:42 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Absolutely Phenomenal rain in SE Qld


> Hi everyone
>
> Well you all know by now that it absolutely dumped on parts of SE Qld
Friday
> afternoon and evening.  My area, Woodridge, was one of the hardest hit
> areas.
>
> I finished work at 2pm, did some chores then flew to the Sunnybank Plaza
> rooftop carpark.  The sky was filled with cu, large cu and Cb.  Because of
> all the cloud, it was hard to see the storm structures but at one point, a
> lovely, sharp, cumuli anvil showed itself closely to my ESE.  Also, there
> was CG lightning to my SW, while the sky to the N was rather featureless,
> but had that "heavy rain look".  Anyway I drove towards home and was
> surprised by a few CGs that seemed to come out of ordinary looking
> cloudbases.  About 1km from home I now noticed the storm coming from the
> NNNE and it started to spit some huge drops onto the windscreen, and
thunder
> was becoming louder.
>
> I got home (Woodridge) at around 2.35pm and the lightning had increased
> markedly, and there was deep booming thunder.
>
> At 2.40pm it hit.
>
> Absolutely torrential rain fell up to about 4pmish - of about 100mm.  I
> couldn't tell because the 'inner gauge' had overflowed considerably into
the
> bigger gauge.  (I have a Nylex 1000)  I then rang the BoM to say that I'd
> had about 100mm, but I would ring them back when it finished.  There was
> then a period of light/mod rain, so I hopped online to check radar and
obs,
> noticing no warnings.  I was only online for about 10mins when the CGs
again
> became too close and torrential rain returned.
>
> The rain soon became heavier than before 4pm!  Visibility down to less
than
> 100m at times and the houses down my road started to go under - about a
> dozen or so houses had 60cm of water going through them.  The people that
> were home had moved their cars up the road and were carrying belongings
into
> their car to 'keep dry'.  Of course these things were already soaking
wet -
> I guess these people were in shock.  Many people weren't home, and would
> have arrived to a huge mess :-(  It was really quite sad, especially as I
> looked to the north and kept seeing more dark grey approaching.
>
> At around 5pm, with the rain still bucketing down, an extremely close CG
> (with associated flang) occurred, and instantly the power went out.  My
> place was blacked out until after 10pm.  Areas such as Greenslopes will be
> blacked out for much longer as they also had powerlines coming down in
high
> winds.
>
> The rain eased a little and by 6pm we'd had 186.5mm (I rang the BoM again)
> and it had finished just after 8pm, leaving me a grand total of 218.5mm.
> This was the biggest downpour I can recall since 1993 (I think) when TC
Rewa
> and a trough interacted causing widespread flash flooding.  This instance
> (9/3/01) was probably more intense and more prolonged than that event.
>
> Tonight while stuck at home, staring at the candles and listening to the
> radio I became aware that almost all main roads in Brisbane at one point
> were flooded.  These included Logan Rd, Wembley Rd, Newnham Rd, Creek Rd,
> Cavendish Rd, SE Freeway inbound etc etc.  Actually you could say that
every
> road in many suburbs were flooded at some point - even inner city roads.
>
> Unfortunately several people are missing, and I believe at least one may
> have been found dead - I can't confirm that.  Often in a heavy rain event
> you can blame people for driving through flooded roads, but in this case,
> many roads that had NEVER flooded actually did, and might have surprised
the
> drivers.  Also, many people do strange or stupid things when its taken 3
> hours to get half way home when it usually takes 20mins.
>
> I guess I can talk about the fact that severe thunderstorm warnings
weren't
> issued until at least 2 hours after it all started but I'll let everyone
> else discuss that :-)
>
> Oh what a day.
>
> Regards
>
> James Chambers
> The Brisbane & SE Qld Storm Site
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 09:44:04 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Morning Herald - article in Good weekend
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

ASWA got a mention and so did the TDU 2K Thunder Down Under Chase last 
year... I think there are a few surprises. The Good Weekend in the Sydney 
Morning Herald and the Melbourne Age I think has the article.

This article leads me to believe that Newspapers do not like to give URL's. 
I asked several times and got a silent response. Oh well - one can't 
complain. But this has happened several times.

Overall, a good article but just slight inconsistencies - but that is to be 
expected.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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From: "Michael \(Thomas\) Stanley" <mstanley at tpg.com.au>
To: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: Re: [ Aussie Wx List ] RE: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 08:23:22 +1000
Organization: Voxjelly
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REPLY-TO: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>

This is my first post and I have to say I agree - an extremely poor job. Two
to three hours of exceptionally heavy rain here on the Gold Coast just east
of the hinterland (Nerang) (it began about 1pm) and no mention of it by the
bureau till well after the event was in full swing. A "warning" - properly
so called - must precede the event.  Also interesting - that same of line of
storms was off the coast all morning and can't really have caught anyone at
BOM by surprise. A total underestimation of rainfall (despite yellow and red
and green on radar image). "Some local thunder" - as a concept - just didn't
get around it at all. My guess is (though they will never admit it) anxious
phone calls from the public (and or media on behalf of the public) were the
only reason we had a "warning" (sic) at all.

Michael (Thomas) Stanley
----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>;
<aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 09, 2001 9:32 PM
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] RE: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx


> Well said Matt. Adaptability isnt one of the BOMS strong points
>
>  < big snip .....
> One final point(and mine, not necessarily Anthony's)...
>
> I think the BoM did quite a poor job on this event(and no I'm not just
> saying that), in that warnings were not issued for anything until 4:33pm,
at
> least 2 hours after the torrential rain started in the southern suburbs
and
> 3 hours after Gold Coast started being hammered. In this time, totals
> accumulated well over 100mm and flooding was already well established.
When
> the warning did eventually come out, there was only the suggestion that
> there "may" be heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding. This was
> rectified approx 30 mins later...but a bit late!!!!! The afternoon
forecast
> continued to read "a few showers. Isolated thunderstorms". Sure, this was
> not predicted in the morning, thats fine. However, what ever happened to
> good ol' nowcasting?! Flooding is occurring...so lets issue a flood
warning
> :) Severe thunderstorm is occurring...you get the idea. *End of rant and
> rave*
>
> Incidentally, 400mm totals in parts of southern Brisbane are likely by
> tomorrow morning.
>
> Matt .....>
>
>
> --
> Visit WeatherZone, the site for weather freaks
> http://www.weatherzone.com.au
>
> --
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> aussie-weather-unsubscribe at theweather.com.au
>



--
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http://www.weatherzone.com.au

--
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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Blue Mountains rainfall
Date: Fri, 09 Mar 2001 23:50:42 GMT
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I think humid, marginally unstable conditions like this are best for
Mountains rain, as the orographic effect tips the balance to wet
rather than dry. Katoomba has had 77mm in the 48 hours to 9 this
morning, and I've had 60.8 at Blackheath, yet most of the Sydney basin
has had 5 to 15mm in the same time, and of course there has been zilch
west of Lithgow. 

The rain has been intermittent but steady, if that makes sense, with
some rain just about every hour. It seldom shows on the radar. Bureau
forecasts never seem to acknowledge it -- forecasts are typically
"Early showers or drizzle clearing" or "scattered showers", yet what
we get is intermittent or continuous rain or drizzle all day. Given
that we have ~100,000 people living in the Blue Mountains, one would
think some attempt would be made to differentiate our weather from
that of Sydney or the greater Central Tablelands district. There are
precis, one-day forecasts issued for Katoomba, but they aren't much
better than the Central Tablelands forecast.

Laurier

On Sat, 10 Mar 2001 08:05:43 +1100, "dann weatherhead"
<weatherhead at ozemail.com.au> wrote:

>Compared to the completely unbelievable rainfall totals from QLD yesterday due to those slow moving storms, our rainfall here seems a little boring, but however interesting. 
>We had steady rain right throughout the day, where as 300m down in Penrith, there was only brief showers. Yesterday was a good example of the orthographic effect of the mountains. I tend to find its more noticable on a overcast Spring or Autumn evening where it will be humid on Penrith and foggy rain in the mountains. We have had some nice falls here overnight with 34mm falling. 
>____________________________
>Daniel Weatherhead
>weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
>============================
>SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
>http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
>============================
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Absolutely Phenomenal rain in SE Qld
Date: Fri, 09 Mar 2001 23:55:17 GMT
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Many of the AWS's in SE Qld reported nil rain during the event --
check out http://www.australianweathernews.com/temp/MGQS0.TXT

The first issue of the 9am rain bulletin is just out -- check
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDO41Q01.html. Highest so
far is Logan City with a whopping 284mm, followed by Landsborough 199
and Nambour 195. It'll be interesting to see the full rainfall
bulletin at
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/rainfall/totals/daily/data/latest.data
when it arrives about 3pm.

Laurier


On Sat, 10 Mar 2001 07:47:17 +1100, "Simon Clarke"
<nomis66 at bigpond.com> wrote:

>James and Laurier
>
>I might add that Cleveland about 30 km north east of Woodridge recorded the
>"slightly" less than phenomenal total of 14 mm   in yesterday's storm and
>most of that actually fell during the early hours of this morning :(
>
>Not surprising really as these storms were locked in position by the unusual
>weather circumstances of the past few days - so a deluge in some places,
>while others nearby remain reasonably dry.
>
>Never mind Cleveland's day will come again.
>
>
>
>Regards
>Simon
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
>To: "Aussie-Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Saturday, March 10, 2001 2:42 AM
>Subject: aus-wx: Absolutely Phenomenal rain in SE Qld
>
>
>> Hi everyone
>>
>> Well you all know by now that it absolutely dumped on parts of SE Qld
>Friday
>> afternoon and evening.  My area, Woodridge, was one of the hardest hit
>> areas.
>>
>> I finished work at 2pm, did some chores then flew to the Sunnybank Plaza
>> rooftop carpark.  The sky was filled with cu, large cu and Cb.  Because of
>> all the cloud, it was hard to see the storm structures but at one point, a
>> lovely, sharp, cumuli anvil showed itself closely to my ESE.  Also, there
>> was CG lightning to my SW, while the sky to the N was rather featureless,
>> but had that "heavy rain look".  Anyway I drove towards home and was
>> surprised by a few CGs that seemed to come out of ordinary looking
>> cloudbases.  About 1km from home I now noticed the storm coming from the
>> NNNE and it started to spit some huge drops onto the windscreen, and
>thunder
>> was becoming louder.
>>
>> I got home (Woodridge) at around 2.35pm and the lightning had increased
>> markedly, and there was deep booming thunder.
>>
>> At 2.40pm it hit.
>>
>> Absolutely torrential rain fell up to about 4pmish - of about 100mm.  I
>> couldn't tell because the 'inner gauge' had overflowed considerably into
>the
>> bigger gauge.  (I have a Nylex 1000)  I then rang the BoM to say that I'd
>> had about 100mm, but I would ring them back when it finished.  There was
>> then a period of light/mod rain, so I hopped online to check radar and
>obs,
>> noticing no warnings.  I was only online for about 10mins when the CGs
>again
>> became too close and torrential rain returned.
>>
>> The rain soon became heavier than before 4pm!  Visibility down to less
>than
>> 100m at times and the houses down my road started to go under - about a
>> dozen or so houses had 60cm of water going through them.  The people that
>> were home had moved their cars up the road and were carrying belongings
>into
>> their car to 'keep dry'.  Of course these things were already soaking
>wet -
>> I guess these people were in shock.  Many people weren't home, and would
>> have arrived to a huge mess :-(  It was really quite sad, especially as I
>> looked to the north and kept seeing more dark grey approaching.
>>
>> At around 5pm, with the rain still bucketing down, an extremely close CG
>> (with associated flang) occurred, and instantly the power went out.  My
>> place was blacked out until after 10pm.  Areas such as Greenslopes will be
>> blacked out for much longer as they also had powerlines coming down in
>high
>> winds.
>>
>> The rain eased a little and by 6pm we'd had 186.5mm (I rang the BoM again)
>> and it had finished just after 8pm, leaving me a grand total of 218.5mm.
>> This was the biggest downpour I can recall since 1993 (I think) when TC
>Rewa
>> and a trough interacted causing widespread flash flooding.  This instance
>> (9/3/01) was probably more intense and more prolonged than that event.
>>
>> Tonight while stuck at home, staring at the candles and listening to the
>> radio I became aware that almost all main roads in Brisbane at one point
>> were flooded.  These included Logan Rd, Wembley Rd, Newnham Rd, Creek Rd,
>> Cavendish Rd, SE Freeway inbound etc etc.  Actually you could say that
>every
>> road in many suburbs were flooded at some point - even inner city roads.
>>
>> Unfortunately several people are missing, and I believe at least one may
>> have been found dead - I can't confirm that.  Often in a heavy rain event
>> you can blame people for driving through flooded roads, but in this case,
>> many roads that had NEVER flooded actually did, and might have surprised
>the
>> drivers.  Also, many people do strange or stupid things when its taken 3
>> hours to get half way home when it usually takes 20mins.
>>
>> I guess I can talk about the fact that severe thunderstorm warnings
>weren't
>> issued until at least 2 hours after it all started but I'll let everyone
>> else discuss that :-)
>>
>> Oh what a day.
>>
>> Regards
>>
>> James Chambers
>> The Brisbane & SE Qld Storm Site
>> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html
>>
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>>  message.
>>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Blue Mountains rainfall
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 12:24:42 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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. Given
> that we have ~100,000 people living in the Blue Mountains, one would
> think some attempt would be made to differentiate our weather from
> that of Sydney or the greater Central Tablelands district. There are
> precis, one-day forecasts issued for Katoomba, but they aren't much
> better than the Central Tablelands forecast.
>
  I 100 percent agree with you Laurier. I laugh when the BOM refers to the
outer western suburbs as Aulburn and Fairfield. As you said over 100 000
people live in the blue mountains and further 170 000 if you include the
lower mountains towns of Kurrajong/Emu Plains areas.
I understand the forecasting for the BOM is already over stretched but
people in the Blue Mountains have no idea what the forecast for their area
is.  There is simply no forecast given.

Bob Carr (Premier of NSW) was quoted as saying that the shires of Penrith
and the Blue Mountains were some of Sydneys best economic and enviromental
resources, and that they should be recognised as vital sectors to the City
of Sydney.(NSW Parliment 18-11-00).
Shouldn't the forecasting be given similar importance?


dann
____________________________
Daniel Weatherhead
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
============================
SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
============================



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 11:53:37 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Morning Herald - article in Good weekend
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All and Jimmy,

I just got my 'Age' [here in Adelaide, in the absense of a decent local
paper...oh, never mind] and lo and behold there was the best recruiting
mechanism for the ASWA you could imagine!  Congrats for giving the guy a
good day out Jimmy - pity you missed the Casino thing, that would have
given him something to write home about.

I thought the colour treatment of some of the photos was a bit strange, but
hey, aesthetics I suppose.  I also liked the Guyra connection.  I stayed in
the caravan park one night in October 1990 and had the biggest, closest,
loudest storm I could ever remember.  The local's reaction?  Nuthin.

Phil



>Hi all,
>
>ASWA got a mention and so did the TDU 2K Thunder Down Under Chase last
>year... I think there are a few surprises. The Good Weekend in the Sydney
>Morning Herald and the Melbourne Age I think has the article.
>
>This article leads me to believe that Newspapers do not like to give URL's.
>I asked several times and got a silent response. Oh well - one can't
>complain. But this has happened several times.
>
>Overall, a good article but just slight inconsistencies - but that is to be
>expected.
>
>-----------------------------------------
>Jimmy Deguara
>Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
>from
>Schofields, Sydney
>NSW Australia

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 12:48:24 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Morning Herald - article in Good weekend
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi Phil,

But I missed it for the reason that I was waiting on him, though the storm 
that came through as you recall was an explosive one nevertheless. I knew 
he was going to do that as he told me in a phone call afterwards but no 
worries.

I was speaking to Nick Moir on the phone and it seems that regardless of 
the author putting the URL's in the article, the head editors take it out....

Jimmy Deguara

At 11:53 AM 10/03/01 +0930, you wrote:
>Hi All and Jimmy,
>
>I just got my 'Age' [here in Adelaide, in the absense of a decent local
>paper...oh, never mind] and lo and behold there was the best recruiting
>mechanism for the ASWA you could imagine!  Congrats for giving the guy a
>good day out Jimmy - pity you missed the Casino thing, that would have
>given him something to write home about.
>
>I thought the colour treatment of some of the photos was a bit strange, but
>hey, aesthetics I suppose.  I also liked the Guyra connection.  I stayed in
>the caravan park one night in October 1990 and had the biggest, closest,
>loudest storm I could ever remember.  The local's reaction?  Nuthin.
>
>Phil
>
>
>
> >Hi all,
> >
> >ASWA got a mention and so did the TDU 2K Thunder Down Under Chase last
> >year... I think there are a few surprises. The Good Weekend in the Sydney
> >Morning Herald and the Melbourne Age I think has the article.
> >
> >This article leads me to believe that Newspapers do not like to give URL's.
> >I asked several times and got a silent response. Oh well - one can't
> >complain. But this has happened several times.
> >
> >Overall, a good article but just slight inconsistencies - but that is to be
> >expected.
> >
> >-----------------------------------------
> >Jimmy Deguara
> >Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> >
> >from
> >Schofields, Sydney
> >NSW Australia
>
>Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
>- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
>       "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 12:05:05 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: sydney tomorrow
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


James Harris has left for a short weekend away in Hong Kong.

Note that whenever he leaves the country, Sydney gets a bit storm.

April 14 1999 - He was on a family holiday in Israel somewhere.
Nov 3 2000 - He was in New Zealand.

Be prepared for a big one tomorrow :)

Matt Smith

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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane storm radar
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 03:33:28 GMT
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Did anyone capture local radar images of yesterday's Brisbane storm?
Unfortunately, I only capture the broadscale images. 

Laurier

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Morning Herald - article in Good weekend
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 03:30:37 GMT
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I agree. Well balanced descriptions of excitement vs risk, and fairly
adept technical descriptions of storm mechanisms for mass circulation.
Well done, Jimmy; you obviously briefed him well.

Laurier

On Sat, 10 Mar 2001 11:53:37 +0930, Phil Bagust
<paisley2 at chariot.net.au> wrote:

>Hi All and Jimmy,
>
>I just got my 'Age' [here in Adelaide, in the absense of a decent local
>paper...oh, never mind] and lo and behold there was the best recruiting
>mechanism for the ASWA you could imagine!  Congrats for giving the guy a
>good day out Jimmy - pity you missed the Casino thing, that would have
>given him something to write home about.
>
>I thought the colour treatment of some of the photos was a bit strange, but
>hey, aesthetics I suppose.  I also liked the Guyra connection.  I stayed in
>the caravan park one night in October 1990 and had the biggest, closest,
>loudest storm I could ever remember.  The local's reaction?  Nuthin.
>
>Phil
>
>
>
>>Hi all,
>>
>>ASWA got a mention and so did the TDU 2K Thunder Down Under Chase last
>>year... I think there are a few surprises. The Good Weekend in the Sydney
>>Morning Herald and the Melbourne Age I think has the article.
>>
>>This article leads me to believe that Newspapers do not like to give URL's.
>>I asked several times and got a silent response. Oh well - one can't
>>complain. But this has happened several times.
>>
>>Overall, a good article but just slight inconsistencies - but that is to be
>>expected.
>>
>>-----------------------------------------
>>Jimmy Deguara
>>Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>>
>>from
>>Schofields, Sydney
>>NSW Australia
>
>Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
>- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
>      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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From: gthurtel at ihug.com.au
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To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Record flood predicted for Grafton
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 03:36:36 GMT
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Hi all,

Just noticed in the numerous flood warnings for the NSW north coast that the 
Clarence River at Grafton is expected to peak tonight (Saturday March 10)at a 
new record level. The Bureau of Meteorology warning is for EXTREME flooding!

The record, set in 1890, is 7.90 metres. The predicted level at Grafton for 8 
pm is 8.0 metres with a further rise to 8.1 metres by midnight.

Spare a thought for the people of Grafton and especially for the Brien family 
who operate Roache's Hotel, where a few of us have stayed whilst on chases in 
the area. At those levels, the bottom floor of Roache's Hotel will be well and 
truely underwater.

Those huge rainfall totals mentioned in earlier posts have really had a huge 
run-off effect in the northern rivers and it appears that the Clarence River 
catchment received the higher rainfall peaks.

Geoff
Thurtell

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 14:18:35 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Phenomenal Flood Event in Brisbane
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,

Finally got a chance to email!

Yesterday was absolutely phenomenal, I had never experienced anything
like it!  I was driving home from uni on the M4, and got caught in the
storm and I actually missed my turnoff due to the heavy rain, I couldn't
even see the bonnet of my car let alone the road, or an exit sign!  I
wanted to  pull over, but it was too dangerous as I was afraid some one
might go up the back of me.  I ended up looking out the side window
doing 30-40km/h trying to work out where the road was.  I had to
continue on the M6 towards Logan - the M6 was reduced to a standstill
during the rain.  I tried to get off the M6, and got lost in the south
side - there were accidents everywhere, stormwater drains were
overflowing and there was several inches of water running across the
road every few hundred metres.  Houses were being flooded and people
were trying to remove their belonings as huge volumes of water swept
through into their house.  People couldn't even use umbrellas - not so
much because of the winds, but because cars could not help splashing
water over them due to the imense amount of water over the road.  Many
roads had to be closed and traffic went into total chaos by 5pm.  Storm
water drains that went underneath roads were under so much pressure that
some of them actually had erupted underneath the road, and there were
fountains of water in the middle of the road!  It was total mayhem - I
found myself in Woodridge and decided to visit James and try and wait
out the storm.  All throughout there were near frequent flangs at times
- made you sh!t yourself!

I arrived to James' and had to take my shoes off to get out of the car
as his carport was ankle deep in water.  The rain was still torrential -
and there was still plenty of lightning and thunder!  One CG (while
talking to Macca on the phone) actually blacked out the area!  Just near
James people had their houses knee deep in water simply from drainage
not being able to cope.  Eventually I had to go and attend to our
terminally ill cat.  But it was not going to be easy!  It took me 1.5hrs
- the journey is normally 20-25mins!  The M1 was a total crawl inbound
and outbound, even when the M1 divided into the F3 and M1 (Gateway
Mwy/SE Fwy), it was only marginally better.  THE GATEWAY MOTORWAY WAS
FLOODED IN TWO PLACES!!!  I had NEVER seen this happen before! 
Apparently the SE Fwy got flooded coming outbound too, and Logan Rd was
totally closed - as there were logs floating across the road!  I then
had the fun of trying to get around my local creek at home - Wrights
road had 2-3ft of water lying across it so I had to go through Carindale
- and only just, water was lapping up near Bedivere St/Old Cleveland Rd
- again, new flood record for this area, it's never come that close to
flooding before.  Meadowlands Rd was flooded - but only had a few inches
of water coming across it - and was able to cross it safely (from storm
water drains).  I got home and didn't have power, but it fortunately
came on soon.  I received 141mm of rain all up.  Our entertainment area
was flooded - and am trying to air that out today.  We were lucky that
we live on a hill though.  

Many people did not fair so well - most major roads were still jammed as
of 9:30pm last night - the railway line between Brisbane and the Gold
Coast was cut north of Beenleigh, and many areas were flooded and people
were trying to find alternate routes as well as pick up relatives who
had originally caught the train to Brisbane.

I went out and assessed damage in the east side today...it was hard, my
God it was.  I was nearly reduced to tears myself looking at the despair
on peoples faces near Stones Corner.  Many people who got flooded didn't
even live near the creek, but the storm water drains just couldn't cope
and in a developed area, there was nowhere for it to go, but in peoples
houses and cars.  Many cars were being aired out with bonnets up and
doors open.  The stench was horrendous.  There were people out on the
streets crying - many who thought their car had been stolen soon
realised that it had been washed away.  Easts club carpark was badly
hit.  Near Old Cleveland Rd I saw cars floating upside down in the
creek!!!  A boat was stuck against a business building, and a few cars
had been washed up against fences.  A caryard nearby took the brunt of
this.  Many people were attending to their businesses today and
salvaging what they had left - they had no warning and some people lost
a lot.  Some didn't have flood insurance and that made it even worse. 
One person phoned MMM in tears because he had lost his house boat and it
had been badly damaged and washed up down Norman Creek.  It was all he
had left - only the shirt on his back.  MMM then gave him accomodation
as the casino for several nights and then he broke down over the phone
again because he wouldn't be allowed in because he had no shoes (MMM
then said they'd buy him some shoes).

It was extremely sad and humbling.  It was overwhelming.  And I felt so
sorry for all these people who didn't even have the chance to do
anything.

I guess this then brings up the sensitive topic and issue of warnings. 
Well, I have to admit I was surprised at the lack of warnings until
later on in the event.  Perhaps what is needed is a trip for all BoM
staff before they become forecasters, is to view damage first hand and
see what it's like to be amongst it all, and then perhaps then they will
feel and see the importance they have in the community to issue warnings
and be more attentative of them.  All I can say is I hope the BoM learns
from their mistakes tough.

Meanwhile, I just had a weak TS go through about 20mins ago, it gave 8mm
in 10mins - it showed up as light blue on radar...we will definately see
more TS today.

An absolutely horrendous flood event that's for sure...one person has
lost their life in this after a car was swept away.  The mother got out,
but the 12yo boys body was found earlier today...

There is one thing though - people are helping people, even the Pacific
Towing (I believe that's their name) offered to tow cars that are in
creeks out of the water for free - which is really a great gift and
asset to help out people, as they've already lost so much without having
to pay out more money...
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Absolutely Phenomenal rain in SE Qld
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 14:25:02 +1000
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Hi all,

Not of course at Mt. Crosby.  Total for the day 13mm.  However I was caught
in some of it at Sumner where it bucketed for around an hour and a half, I
would say at least 100mm maybe quite a bit more.  Other suburbs would have
been a lot worse off, as the intense storm area stayed put for around 3 to 4
hours at least.  Thunder in the distance to the West at present, here's
hoping...

John.
>snip

Many of the AWS's in SE Qld reported nil rain during the event --
check out http://www.australianweathernews.com/temp/MGQS0.TXT

The first issue of the 9am rain bulletin is just out -- check
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDO41Q01.html. Highest so
far is Logan City with a whopping 284mm, followed by Landsborough 199
and Nambour 195. It'll be interesting to see the full rainfall
bulletin at
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/rainfall/totals/daily/data/latest.dat
a
when it arrives about 3pm.

Laurier

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Sydney Morning Herald - article in Good weekend
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 14:35:09 +1000
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Hello All,

Would some kind soul be prepared to scan this article in and make it
available on the web (or email it to me)?


Regards,

Anthony Spierings
as029 at bigpond.net.au


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [202.181.208.152]
From: "James Harris" <jimboharr at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: sydney tomorrow
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 17:32:34 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Hmph.....
Its a balmy 17c here at the moment.... low vis in every direction and this 
constant smoggy cloud cover is killing me.....
Shoppings cheap however .... cough cough
Bastards .. I bet you get the biggest storm that Sydney has seen yet .

James




>From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: sydney tomorrow
>Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 12:05:05 +1100
>
>
>James Harris has left for a short weekend away in Hong Kong.
>
>Note that whenever he leaves the country, Sydney gets a bit storm.
>
>April 14 1999 - He was on a family holiday in Israel somewhere.
>Nov 3 2000 - He was in New Zealand.
>
>Be prepared for a big one tomorrow :)
>
>Matt Smith
>
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_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
	"Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] NSW Floods
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 16:19:39 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
Importance: Normal
X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: <OMEDJHIIDNHKGDDPFNPMMELICBAA.ntstorms at bigpond.com>
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au
REPLY-TO: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>

Just rang a friend at Kempsey (via mobile).

Kempsey is having ALL 10,000 people were expeceted to be evacuated due to
MAJOR flooding in this area. This is a significant event - similar to
Grafton's.

The record may even go at Kempsey yet. Many towns are isolated in this event
- inc. South west rocks and others.

Rang my mum in Taree - they are still experiencing moderate flooding -
mainly in Taree itself and on the Islands (near where I used to live).

All in all this is a very significant event weather wise for NSW.

This follows on from a 1 in 100 year flood in the whole of the top-end of NT
(of course except for Darwin.......) , previous inland floods in SW Qld, NW
NSW,  and Northern WA.

What an amazing end to summer...... and start to autumn for you Southern
folk.

It goes to show what happens when you live on river flats of major systems.
Thats where I am now lucky I suppose.......

Paul in Darwin.

Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\winmail5.dat"

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From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: NSW Floods
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 16:19:39 +0930
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Just rang a friend at Kempsey (via mobile).

Kempsey is having ALL 10,000 people were expeceted to be evacuated due to
MAJOR flooding in this area. This is a significant event - similar to
Grafton's.

The record may even go at Kempsey yet. Many towns are isolated in this event
- inc. South west rocks and others.

Rang my mum in Taree - they are still experiencing moderate flooding -
mainly in Taree itself and on the Islands (near where I used to live).

All in all this is a very significant event weather wise for NSW.

This follows on from a 1 in 100 year flood in the whole of the top-end of NT
(of course except for Darwin.......) , previous inland floods in SW Qld, NW
NSW,  and Northern WA.

What an amazing end to summer...... and start to autumn for you Southern
folk.

It goes to show what happens when you live on river flats of major systems.
Thats where I am now lucky I suppose.......

Paul in Darwin.

Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\winmail6.dat"
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 17:26:09 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Subtropical Cyclone "Donald"
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au
REPLY-TO: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>

Hi All.

You will find a 6 day satpic loop of Subtropical Cyclone "Donald" at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SatpicLoop.htm.

Why "Donald"?

To quote Blair Trewin - "The talk around here this morning is that this
system definitely passes the 'duck test' to be classified as a cyclone (if
it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it
probably is a duck)...".

Regards,
Carl.



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X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 17:26:09 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Subtropical Cyclone "Donald"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

You will find a 6 day satpic loop of Subtropical Cyclone "Donald" at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SatpicLoop.htm.

Why "Donald"?

To quote Blair Trewin - "The talk around here this morning is that this
system definitely passes the 'duck test' to be classified as a cyclone (if
it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it
probably is a duck)...".

Regards,
Carl.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [198.142.236.222]
From: "Shane Astridge" <theazzdude at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 18:32:41 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Just rang a friend who lives at Grafton right on the Clarence river and he 
said they were currently being evacuated as the levy a few hundred metres 
from his flat looks as though it is going to break.
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 18:40:20 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Subtropical Cyclone "Donald"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Carl,

At our Victorian ASWA meeting this morning, we had a discussion on "Abigail &
Daffy" - does this mean that we named it before you got to it? <g>

The loop is stunning.  It's certainly been an interesting 'hybrid' system,
showing elements of both warm & cold cored lows.......
It's sad that so much devastation has taken place.

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

Carl Smith wrote:

> Hi All.
>
> You will find a 6 day satpic loop of Subtropical Cyclone "Donald" at
> http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SatpicLoop.htm.
>
> Why "Donald"?
>
> To quote Blair Trewin - "The talk around here this morning is that this
> system definitely passes the 'duck test' to be classified as a cyclone (if
> it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it
> probably is a duck)...".
>
> Regards,
> Carl.
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------




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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Please - don't be too quick to blame others !
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 18:51:16 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>All</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Listen, I might get my head chopped off here - so 
be it, but I don't think it is quite the right time to start apportioning blame 
for&nbsp; (dare I say it !) a freakish weather event.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I observe the use of the term&nbsp;'phenomenal and 
I agree the event was phenomenal.&nbsp;So much rain there and so little here 
!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>You might have half of Brisbane scratching their 
heads wondering what everyone is going on about !</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>It wasn't until about 2 to 2.5 hours into the event 
that I thought I should post my an e-mail&nbsp;"significant rain 
event&nbsp;Logan City"&nbsp;- Prior to that I had simply expected the storms to 
continue to travel south. They&nbsp;locked in situ and we all know the 
rest.&nbsp;I would have never&nbsp;expected them to continue building in the 
same line&nbsp;for a few more hours.&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I feel sorry for the people at BoM when they get 
blamed for "freakish/phenomenal events" such as this. It a case of damned if 
they do or damned if they don't. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I also feel sorry for the Council's that get blamed 
for&nbsp;inadequate drainage systems etc.. Most are designed for 1 in 100 year 
events. This was clearly beyond a 1 in 100 year event. Its just so easy to blame 
everyone else when mother nature turns on a phenomenal display.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Finally I feel most sorry for all those people that 
have suffered very considerably from this. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>But lets not start blaming each other. We will 
never learn&nbsp;from these events if this is the type of blame-culture 
pervades. I'm sure BoM will produce a report on this event and maybe that will 
shed new light on exactly what happened behind the scenes.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Enough of the lecture - back to the weather 
!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Reply-To: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
From: "Mark Hardy \(home\)" <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: Re: [ Aussie Wx List ] NSW Floods
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 18:38:45 +1100
Organization: The Weather Company
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au

This is on top of the record flood expected in Grafton tonight. I am
surprised this event is not getting more media coverage. Hope for Grafton
and Kempsey that the peak is not at as high as predicted. Looks like Cyclone
Noname is going to be quite a historic one.

Mark Hardy
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
http://www.theweather.com.au


----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: "Aussie Weather Mail List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>; "Aussie
Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 10, 2001 5:49 PM
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] NSW Floods


| Just rang a friend at Kempsey (via mobile).
|
| Kempsey is having ALL 10,000 people were expeceted to be evacuated due to
| MAJOR flooding in this area. This is a significant event - similar to
| Grafton's.
|
| The record may even go at Kempsey yet. Many towns are isolated in this
event
| - inc. South west rocks and others.
|
| Rang my mum in Taree - they are still experiencing moderate flooding -
| mainly in Taree itself and on the Islands (near where I used to live).
|
| All in all this is a very significant event weather wise for NSW.
|
| This follows on from a 1 in 100 year flood in the whole of the top-end of
NT
| (of course except for Darwin.......) , previous inland floods in SW Qld,
NW
| NSW,  and Northern WA.
|
| What an amazing end to summer...... and start to autumn for you Southern
| folk.
|
| It goes to show what happens when you live on river flats of major
systems.
| Thats where I am now lucky I suppose.......
|
| Paul in Darwin.
|


----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----


|
| --
| Visit WeatherZone, the site for weather freaks
| http://www.weatherzone.com.au
|
| --
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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW Floods
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 08:54:50 GMT
X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452
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Paul, is that *Kempsey* having 10,000 ppl evacuated? ABC news is
saying that Grafton is having 10,000 ppl evacuated by train to Coffs
Harbour, as a precaution against the levee breaking, but the ABC word
on Kempsey is that there are evacuations, but not of this magnitude.

Laurier

On Sat, 10 Mar 2001 16:19:39 +0930, "Paul Mossman"
<ntstorms at bigpond.com> wrote:

>Just rang a friend at Kempsey (via mobile).
>
>Kempsey is having ALL 10,000 people were expeceted to be evacuated due to
>MAJOR flooding in this area. This is a significant event - similar to
>Grafton's.
>
>The record may even go at Kempsey yet. Many towns are isolated in this event
>- inc. South west rocks and others.
>
>Rang my mum in Taree - they are still experiencing moderate flooding -
>mainly in Taree itself and on the Islands (near where I used to live).
>
>All in all this is a very significant event weather wise for NSW.
>
>This follows on from a 1 in 100 year flood in the whole of the top-end of NT
>(of course except for Darwin.......) , previous inland floods in SW Qld, NW
>NSW,  and Northern WA.
>
>What an amazing end to summer...... and start to autumn for you Southern
>folk.
>
>It goes to show what happens when you live on river flats of major systems.
>Thats where I am now lucky I suppose.......
>
>Paul in Darwin.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Report on NSW floods
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 09:27:09 GMT
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I've just uploaded the NSW flood reports for 7 and 8/3/01 to
Australian Weather News -- with such a huge area affected and so many
sources it took a while, and there's still the 9th, 10th, 11th.... to
go (and Brisbane...)  

A few points and questions:

There's been much discussion on the list of the cyclone-like quality
of the low, the wind and the damage. The one thing that amazes me
most, however, is the rate of rise of the Bellinger River on Thursday
morning. If you go to
http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/news.html and click on 8
March 2001 and look at the combined hygrographs for the Bellinger,
you'll see a phenomenally rapid rise at all except one location
between midnight and 6am. The exception is Thora, which is *upstream*
of Bellingen, and which rose rapidly between midnight and noon. It
suggests enormous amounts of water flowing into the river system along
its whole length. Given that we seem to be facing record floods in
both Kempsey and Grafton, I have a feeling that rainfall in parts of
the Great Divide and nearer coastal mountains between, say, the Gwydir
and Oxley Highways, must have been far higher than any measured
records we have yet seen.

I hunted for a good image showing the "eye" of the low on 8/3/01, and
the best I could come across was the CIMSS visible, and that is what I
used. If anyone has something better, I'd appreciate a copy.

I've not seen any comments yet on the cause(s) of the Brisbane storm,
nor have I had much time to think about it yet myself. There was
strong shear to the east, and the small low was still in the area at
12z, but I haven't yet fathomed the mechanics of what caused it. Have
any of the locals who saw it happen come up with any theories yet?

Laurier

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Report on NSW floods
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 20:43:09 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Best thing I can come up with is I guess a quasi-stationery
thunderstorm/steady state thunderstorm.  I do NOT mean a supercell by any
means.  It seems to have been a classic train-effect system.  Moisture
profiles on the Brisbane sounding were pretty much train tracks and I think
the N'ly upper flow (from the upper trough/low to the W) may've helped drag
some extra mositure into the upper levels and hence some additional
rainfall.  The surface feature was the remnants of the hybrid low pressure
system which crossed the coast in NE NSW.  That's about as much as I've been
able to look into it.  Hope it helps.

Further to this my thoughts are with all those in flooded areas of NE NSW
and Brisbane.

Regards,

Andrew "Macca" McDonald.

----- Original Message -----
From: Laurier Williams <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 10, 2001 8:27 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Report on NSW floods


> I've just uploaded the NSW flood reports for 7 and 8/3/01 to
> Australian Weather News -- with such a huge area affected and so many
> sources it took a while, and there's still the 9th, 10th, 11th.... to
> go (and Brisbane...)
>
> A few points and questions:
>
> There's been much discussion on the list of the cyclone-like quality
> of the low, the wind and the damage. The one thing that amazes me
> most, however, is the rate of rise of the Bellinger River on Thursday
> morning. If you go to
> http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/news.html and click on 8
> March 2001 and look at the combined hygrographs for the Bellinger,
> you'll see a phenomenally rapid rise at all except one location
> between midnight and 6am. The exception is Thora, which is *upstream*
> of Bellingen, and which rose rapidly between midnight and noon. It
> suggests enormous amounts of water flowing into the river system along
> its whole length. Given that we seem to be facing record floods in
> both Kempsey and Grafton, I have a feeling that rainfall in parts of
> the Great Divide and nearer coastal mountains between, say, the Gwydir
> and Oxley Highways, must have been far higher than any measured
> records we have yet seen.
>
> I hunted for a good image showing the "eye" of the low on 8/3/01, and
> the best I could come across was the CIMSS visible, and that is what I
> used. If anyone has something better, I'd appreciate a copy.
>
> I've not seen any comments yet on the cause(s) of the Brisbane storm,
> nor have I had much time to think about it yet myself. There was
> strong shear to the east, and the small low was still in the area at
> 12z, but I haven't yet fathomed the mechanics of what caused it. Have
> any of the locals who saw it happen come up with any theories yet?
>
> Laurier
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Patrick Tobin" <patricktobin at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Good Weekend article
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 21:10:46 +1100
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Hi all,

I have uploaded a scan of the "Days of Thunder" article to:

http://www.ozemail.com.au/~patricktobin/wx/thunder

Patrick

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Stu" <phrstu at northnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Gunnedah Thunder Storm
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 21:21:02 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3500" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Who said we dont get thunderstorms from the NE. 
About 2.30 this afternoon we finaly had some relief from the very dry spell we 
have been experiencing through Feb / March.&nbsp; 35mm in about 20 minutes. It 
didnt look that impressive on the radar but it rolled in very nicely. It had a 
nice gust front that almost touched the ground on the NE edge. Never seen then 
come from the NE before but the old timers tell me thats where the big floods 
come from as they glaze over and recall the the big one back in 
.......</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The system seems to be shaping up to make tomoro 
very interesting. I will have my camera handy, to wet to landscape.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>stu</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 23:36:52 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane Storms Tonight
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

A few thunderstorms have woffled through Brisbane tonight, earlier one
went to the south and southwest of Brisbane and gave a couple of flashes
of lightning.  Currently now a cell has gone through north Brisbane and
sitting over the NW side, with several nice flashes of lightning, and
very deep rumbles of thunder about a minute later!  These seem to be
storms from showers coming from out to sea or forming along the coast
and moving over and strengthening a little.  The atmosphere is quite
unstable, with widespread DP's 22-23, with a few 24's.  Temps all around
23-24 as well (RH nearly 100%)
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane Storms Tonight
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 01:52:17 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0)
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

To add to this,

At Mt. Crosby we have just received 40mm in the last hour or so. AT LAST
SOME RAIN!!!!!
As luck would have it, I had just succumbed to topping up the pool today
after waiting for some decent rain during the last week to do the job.  Now
the damn thing is overflowing again - you can't win.

Rain is coming in from the East, over quite a large area according to radar,
plus I notice some large patches of light blue sitting over the upper
catchment area of the Clarence and other Northern NSW river systems.  Flood
may get worse yet.

John.
>snip

Hi all,

A few thunderstorms have woffled through Brisbane tonight, earlier one
went to the south and southwest of Brisbane and gave a couple of flashes
of lightning.  Currently now a cell has gone through north Brisbane and
sitting over the NW side, with several nice flashes of lightning, and
very deep rumbles of thunder about a minute later!  These seem to be
storms from showers coming from out to sea or forming along the coast
and moving over and strengthening a little.  The atmosphere is quite
unstable, with widespread DP's 22-23, with a few 24's.  Temps all around
23-24 as well (RH nearly 100%)
--
Anthony Cornelius

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane TS
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 02:56:13 +1000
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Hi Laurier,

My impressions for what they are worth...

A line of TS/CB formed overnight off the coast feeding into the low (ex STC
"Donald"), this was clearly visible on radar as a long arc and visually from
first light.  This cloud street marked a convergence zone I believe,
Northerly to the West and ENE to the East.  One things seem clear, that this
was part of a tongue of deep tropical air which had sustained the low, as
the increase in temp and DP's in Brisbane once the low moved inland was very
marked.  There was clearly a huge amount of precipitable moisture available.
Clouds at midday looked exactly like those I have seen in Cairns or Darwin
during the summer months.

What happened is simple, the line was tending to drift towards the coast and
drifted over land with the onset of the afternoon seabreeze where it
stalled.  Individuals cells moved down the line, but the movement was just
about coincincidental with backbuilding, such that radar signatures showed
little movement (i.e., quasi-stationary).  A large complex built over
southern Brisbane as part of the line and remained quasi-stationary for some
hours with the resulting deluge.  The TS themselves were not particularly
severe and of the multicell variety, nor particularly electrically active,
neither were precip rates that extreme (none showed red on radar, although
there were patches of pink) and no hail as far as I am aware.

I drove out of the line on my way home to Mt. Crosby, which was in clear
air.  I had a lovely view of the line over Brisbane, which looked very
similar to that observed off the coast in the morning - just a bit closer.
It was just past sundown, and the lightning effects were quite superb,
around 1 flash every two seconds or so somewhere along the line.  The line
had drifted back out to sea by mid evening.

Cloud structure generally appeared tropical, i.e., definitely not cold air
CB's, with little glaciation only in the upper levels - little in the way of
anvils, indicative of low shear throughout the atmosphere.  What shear there
was, was alligned with the line.  Cloud tops did not seem particularly high
(<9,000m I would guess) and most lightning appeared to originate relatively
low in the cloud bank (the famous "warm lightning" perhaps?? - which I
believe scientifically doesn't exist).

The event has been rated as 1 in 100 yr in the media - I think this is
probably not very accurate.  Lines of TS/CB are often visible out to sea off
the coast here in the mornings, but perhaps very rarely move West to cross
the coast.  Similarly, quasi-stationary thunderstorms are not that unusual
either, but perhaps the occurence over a major population centre is.  The
amount of available moisture in the atmosphere probably had most to do with
sustaining the line throughout the day, and the amount of rain that
consequently fell.

John.
>snip

I've not seen any comments yet on the cause(s) of the Brisbane storm,
nor have I had much time to think about it yet myself. There was
strong shear to the east, and the small low was still in the area at
12z, but I haven't yet fathomed the mechanics of what caused it. Have
any of the locals who saw it happen come up with any theories yet?

Laurier

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 08:15:54 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane TS
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Nice explanation John

Is this what is being talked about at 'the train effect' in relation to
quasi stationary t/storms?

Phil





>My impressions for what they are worth...
>
>A line of TS/CB formed overnight off the coast feeding into the low (ex STC
>"Donald"), this was clearly visible on radar as a long arc and visually from
>first light.  This cloud street marked a convergence zone I believe,
>Northerly to the West and ENE to the East.  One things seem clear, that this
>was part of a tongue of deep tropical air which had sustained the low, as
>the increase in temp and DP's in Brisbane once the low moved inland was very
>marked.  There was clearly a huge amount of precipitable moisture available.
>Clouds at midday looked exactly like those I have seen in Cairns or Darwin
>during the summer months.
>
>What happened is simple, the line was tending to drift towards the coast and
>drifted over land with the onset of the afternoon seabreeze where it
>stalled.  Individuals cells moved down the line, but the movement was just
>about coincincidental with backbuilding, such that radar signatures showed
>little movement (i.e., quasi-stationary).  A large complex built over
>southern Brisbane as part of the line and remained quasi-stationary for some
>hours with the resulting deluge.  The TS themselves were not particularly
>severe and of the multicell variety, nor particularly electrically active,
>neither were precip rates that extreme (none showed red on radar, although
>there were patches of pink) and no hail as far as I am aware.
>
>I drove out of the line on my way home to Mt. Crosby, which was in clear
>air.  I had a lovely view of the line over Brisbane, which looked very
>similar to that observed off the coast in the morning - just a bit closer.
>It was just past sundown, and the lightning effects were quite superb,
>around 1 flash every two seconds or so somewhere along the line.  The line
>had drifted back out to sea by mid evening.
>
>Cloud structure generally appeared tropical, i.e., definitely not cold air
>CB's, with little glaciation only in the upper levels - little in the way of
>anvils, indicative of low shear throughout the atmosphere.  What shear there
>was, was alligned with the line.  Cloud tops did not seem particularly high
>(<9,000m I would guess) and most lightning appeared to originate relatively
>low in the cloud bank (the famous "warm lightning" perhaps?? - which I
>believe scientifically doesn't exist).
>
>The event has been rated as 1 in 100 yr in the media - I think this is
>probably not very accurate.  Lines of TS/CB are often visible out to sea off
>the coast here in the mornings, but perhaps very rarely move West to cross
>the coast.  Similarly, quasi-stationary thunderstorms are not that unusual
>either, but perhaps the occurence over a major population centre is.  The
>amount of available moisture in the atmosphere probably had most to do with
>sustaining the line throughout the day, and the amount of rain that
>consequently fell.
>
>John.
>>snip
>
>I've not seen any comments yet on the cause(s) of the Brisbane storm,
>nor have I had much time to think about it yet myself. There was
>strong shear to the east, and the small low was still in the area at
>12z, but I haven't yet fathomed the mechanics of what caused it. Have
>any of the locals who saw it happen come up with any theories yet?
>
>Laurier
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 17:26:04 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane TS
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Phil asked:

> Is this what is being talked about at 'the train effect' in relation to
> quasi stationary t/storms?

You refer to what is normally called "training cells".  That is, when a
sequence of storms passes over the same location just as cars on a train
will pass over the same location on the tracks in a sequential manner.  In
such a sequence, a given location will get heavy rainfall accumulation as
storm after storm passes over

Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: : Blue Mountains rainfall
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 09:34:15 +1100
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Hi all,

Some pretty heavy rain here in Blackheath this Sunday morning. I had 48.5 mm
from 8am to 9am. I've recorded heavier rates of rain over shorts periods but
few like this for duration. As I type off-line at 9:30am, the rain has
virtually stopped.

Todays fall makes it rain on every day since Monday night, the 26th of
February.

Laurier, I'd be interested to know what rain you got out of this one, being
closer to the escarpment.

Also, I have to agree with Laurier and was it Daniel, about the Bom's
forecasts for the Blue Mountains. With such a decent population it would be
nice for the BOM to give a little more detail for our region, then again,
most folk I talk to don't have net access and may not see the improved
forecasting, even if it was available. We are in a funny situation, in that
we get the Sydney television and radio station broadcasts up here but
obviously our weather is very different. Quite often people will say to me,
"Hey Lins, it was supposed to be fine here today, that's what they said on
the TV."

All this is said being mindful of , "Playing the ball not the man." or
"Attacking the issue not the tissue.", that shocker just came to me :)

I respect the BOM and those that work for them on this list, still,
constructive criticism is a good thing.

Cheers,

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "KazG" <gorrie at mydesk.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Dam Heights
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 10:46:09 +1100
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Hi all.
Can anyone point me in the direction of a site that has the Dam heights for
Warragamba ?

TIA
Kaz

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: 1 in 100 year events
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 08:19:29 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>John and others</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The term 1 in 100 year event is often used out of 
context particularly by the media. It really is&nbsp;civil engineering 
terminology and used as a basis for stormwater drainage design etc.. (ie- they 
make a drain to suit rainfall events that they would only expect to occur at any 
one given location 1 time in 100 years). Therefore when a drain overflows they 
talk about the drain being designed to cater for&nbsp;1 in 100 year events etc 
That is what is reinterpreted by the media into the sensational 1 in 100 year 
event story.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>However, on the basis that key SEQ infrastructure 
such as the Gateway Motorway was breached by floodwaters in a number of places 
would strongly suggest that the duration/intensity of the storm in that location 
was particularly remarkable/event-worthy. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That's not to say&nbsp;it won't happen again (maybe 
next week, next year, in ten years etc... in that location who knows 
?).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Cold wave.....
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 10:54:08 +1100
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Hi all.
Not a bad looking cold wave moving through the southern Bight this morning,
looks to be moving northeast at present,the high southwest of Perth looks
like it will strengthen and push  a temporary ridge southwards towards the
far southern ocean.With a bit of luck some of this cold air may get far
north enough to interact with the above average sea surface temps off the
Tasmanian and Victorian coasts (21c Bass Strait),this may see the possible
development of a low somewhere over the eastern Bass Strait region or east
of Tasmania..regards Clyve Herbert.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 08:51:12 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane TS
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Hi John,

Just a few observations and comments...

John Woodbridge wrote:
> 
> What happened is simple, the line was tending to drift towards the coast and
> drifted over land with the onset of the afternoon seabreeze where it
> stalled.  Individuals cells moved down the line, but the movement was just
> about coincincidental with backbuilding, such that radar signatures showed
> little movement (i.e., quasi-stationary).  

I agree with you here, the thunderstorms themselves weren't so much slow
moving (although they weren't fast moving), but they continued to
develop on the northern end, as they moved south.  They were able to do
this due to very high CAPE (3000-4000 or more estimate, will do a proper
calculation in a future report), and the convergence zone feeding into
it.

A large complex built over
> southern Brisbane as part of the line and remained quasi-stationary for some
> hours with the resulting deluge.  The TS themselves were not particularly
> severe and of the multicell variety, 

I have to disagree with you here, aside from the flash flooding that
washed cars down creeks...

http://www.bsch.au.com/anthony/flood/KS548.JPG (example)

several units lost their rooves to high winds, and there were numerous
reports of high winds bringing trees down.  Although one could say the
ground was softened from very heavy rain - the units certainly had
strong winds.  I didn't experience any severe winds, however at times
they were reaching gale force while driving!

>nor particularly electrically active,

Again I have to disagree with you - underneath the storms, thunder was
constant, with one rumble/clap just rolling into another.  Lightning at
times was every few seconds.  HOWEVER - the intensity fluctuated
greatly, and it depeneded on whether you have extremely heavy torrential
rain, or just heavy rain at the time.  If you "only" had heavy rain,
lightning frequently increased dramatically.  My guess is that the rain
blocked a lot of the lightning from view.

> neither were precip rates that extreme (none showed red on radar, although
> there were patches of pink) 

Once again ( :) ) I have to disagree with you!  The rain rates I was
experiencing at times were the highest I had ever experienced in my
life!  For example, this is how it was like doing 30km/h:

http://www.bsch.au.com/anthony/KS489.JPG

No visibility at all - to the point where attempting to pull over would
have meant some one would just run up my arse.  Streets were constantly
awash like:

http://www.bsch.au.com/anthony/flood/KS482.JPG

Brisbane local *underestimates* - especially in heavy rain/rain
band/coastal shower/TS situations.  Yellow/green/pink is ****ing heavy
rain!  I think this is why the BoM didn't pick up the event earlier,
because they do not look at correlations between radar and actual
recorded rainfall to have an idea on how radar works.  They just assume
it is correct.

> and no hail as far as I am aware.

Hail was reported near Holland Park - although I'm unaware of the
size/amount.  At times I was unsure whether I had small hail hitting the
car, as I could see things bouncing, but the drops were so big they were
bouncing too...but occassionally something would bounce higher.
> 
> I drove out of the line on my way home to Mt. Crosby, which was in clear
> air.  I had a lovely view of the line over Brisbane, which looked very
> similar to that observed off the coast in the morning - just a bit closer.
> It was just past sundown, and the lightning effects were quite superb,
> around 1 flash every two seconds or so somewhere along the line.  

Flash every 2 seconds is infrequent? :-)  I would love to see a storm
that is "electricially active" then <g>

The line
> had drifted back out to sea by mid evening.
> 
> Cloud structure generally appeared tropical, i.e., definitely not cold air
> CB's, with little glaciation only in the upper levels - little in the way of
> anvils, indicative of low shear throughout the atmosphere.  

Glaciation was not overly present - agreed - this was weird given that
the upper levels were quite cold for a tropical lower level
atmosphere(500mb temp -10).  I think something else was that there were
opposing steering winds, in particular the steering levels that assisted
in slow movement - although, they did not move as slow as they appeared
on radar.

> The event has been rated as 1 in 100 yr in the media - I think this is
> probably not very accurate.  

The BoM said it was a 1 in 100 yr event, so I believe the media are just
quoting off them.

I would say that this event for Brisbane metro is very rare!  Especially
on this magnitude.

Similarly, quasi-stationary thunderstorms are not that unusual
> either, but perhaps the occurence over a major population centre is.  The
> amount of available moisture in the atmosphere probably had most to do with
> sustaining the line throughout the day, and the amount of rain that
> consequently fell.

I think these types of occurrences tend to favour the ranges more so
then over Brisbane in the "plains" of SE QLD.

Anyway - I'm sure this will make a very interesting discussion for this
Saturday's ASWA meeting!

AC
 
> John.

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dam Heights
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 00:23:21 GMT
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Kaz

The NSW Bureau of Met river heights bulletin at
ftp://ftp2.bom.gov.au/anon/gen/fwo/IDA42N01.html has most dam heights,
including Warragamba. There's a fuller list of river/dam height links
on my site at http://www.australianweathernews.com/. Go to Current and
Recent Weather, then Flood and River Levels in the index at left. Note
that the Sydney Catchment Authority link to dam levels no longer works
-- they seem to have withdrawn the useful table of dam heights, or
filed it somewhere obscure.

Laurier


On Sun, 11 Mar 2001 10:46:09 +1100, "KazG" <gorrie at mydesk.net.au>
wrote:

>Hi all.
>Can anyone point me in the direction of a site that has the Dam heights for
>Warragamba ?
>
>TIA
>Kaz
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "KazG" <gorrie at mydesk.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dam Heights
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 11:49:03 +1100
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Thanks Laurier
Much appreciated.

Kaz
----- Original Message -----
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 11:23 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dam Heights


> Kaz
>
> The NSW Bureau of Met river heights bulletin at
> ftp://ftp2.bom.gov.au/anon/gen/fwo/IDA42N01.html has most dam heights,
> including Warragamba. There's a fuller list of river/dam height links
> on my site at http://www.australianweathernews.com/. Go to Current and
> Recent Weather, then Flood and River Levels in the index at left. Note
> that the Sydney Catchment Authority link to dam levels no longer works
> -- they seem to have withdrawn the useful table of dam heights, or
> filed it somewhere obscure.
>
> Laurier
>
>
> On Sun, 11 Mar 2001 10:46:09 +1100, "KazG" <gorrie at mydesk.net.au>
> wrote:
>
> >Hi all.
> >Can anyone point me in the direction of a site that has the Dam heights
for
> >Warragamba ?
> >
> >TIA
> >Kaz
> >
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From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Phenomenal Flood Event in Brisbane
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 10:52:29 +1000
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Hi all

I echo Anthonys sentiments - this event was almost overwhelming for me.  I
spent the whole day chasing, from the Sunshine Coast hinterland where i
encountered a very severe (rainfall intensity wise) and almost stationary
storm around Beerwah, to Aspley in the evening where i witnessed the most
mind blowing events i have ever seen in my life.

I drove around the northern suburbs in moderate-heavy rain with distant
lightning for few hours from about 5pm onwards - the traffic was terrible
and i was about to head home when i noticed lightning was starting to
increase to the NNW, so turned around and drove towards the Zilmere/Asply
area.  Before i knew it i was in the middle of yet another severe storm -
the wind at the beginning was bordering on severe, but the most impressive
(and severe) thing was the intensity of the rain - it was amazing.  The
lightning was also frequent, with many strikes within 1km.  After about 20
minutes of this i though "geeze there are going to be some big totals from
this" .....if only i knew

I decided to head towards the Aspley area where i knew of a few flood prone
areas - boy was that a big mistake.  After doing several U turns to avoid
flooded streets, i ended up getting stuck in traffic just outside of the
Hyperdome shopping center.  This is where things started to get scary - the
creek there rose so quickly! I walked into KFC to get a quick snack, and
walked out 5 minutes later to see the water had risen several feet!  The
carpark under KFC (underground style) was quickly filling with water, and
people were running around frantically trying to save their cars.  I was
standing on a set of stairs, watching the water rise and all of a sudden
cars started floating! My head was spinning - and the rain was still pouring
down!  Only a matter of metres away was a major intersection which was cut
by the local creek.  The water was flowing with such force that several cars
were plucked from a caryard and were carried down the creek creek.  There
were also 2 or 3 cars who tried to drive through the flooded intersection at
the onset of the flooding, but their cars had stalled.  These cars were now
almost completely covered in water, and had been pushed up against side
railings by the force of the water.  The whole scene was just mind blowing

There is a preliminary report up on BSCH which will be completed today.
There are a few photos from previous days there, and many more will be added
over the next few days (including some stills from channel 7's footage)

http://www.bsch.au.com/reports/09_03_01.shtml


----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 10, 2001 2:18 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Phenomenal Flood Event in Brisbane


> Hi all,
>
> Finally got a chance to email!
>
> Yesterday was absolutely phenomenal, I had never experienced anything
> like it!  I was driving home from uni on the M4, and got caught in the
> storm and I actually missed my turnoff due to the heavy rain, I couldn't
> even see the bonnet of my car let alone the road, or an exit sign!  I
> wanted to  pull over, but it was too dangerous as I was afraid some one
> might go up the back of me.  I ended up looking out the side window
> doing 30-40km/h trying to work out where the road was.  I had to
> continue on the M6 towards Logan - the M6 was reduced to a standstill
> during the rain.  I tried to get off the M6, and got lost in the south
> side - there were accidents everywhere, stormwater drains were
> overflowing and there was several inches of water running across the
> road every few hundred metres.  Houses were being flooded and people
> were trying to remove their belonings as huge volumes of water swept
> through into their house.  People couldn't even use umbrellas - not so
> much because of the winds, but because cars could not help splashing
> water over them due to the imense amount of water over the road.  Many
> roads had to be closed and traffic went into total chaos by 5pm.  Storm
> water drains that went underneath roads were under so much pressure that
> some of them actually had erupted underneath the road, and there were
> fountains of water in the middle of the road!  It was total mayhem - I
> found myself in Woodridge and decided to visit James and try and wait
> out the storm.  All throughout there were near frequent flangs at times
> - made you sh!t yourself!
>
> I arrived to James' and had to take my shoes off to get out of the car
> as his carport was ankle deep in water.  The rain was still torrential -
> and there was still plenty of lightning and thunder!  One CG (while
> talking to Macca on the phone) actually blacked out the area!  Just near
> James people had their houses knee deep in water simply from drainage
> not being able to cope.  Eventually I had to go and attend to our
> terminally ill cat.  But it was not going to be easy!  It took me 1.5hrs
> - the journey is normally 20-25mins!  The M1 was a total crawl inbound
> and outbound, even when the M1 divided into the F3 and M1 (Gateway
> Mwy/SE Fwy), it was only marginally better.  THE GATEWAY MOTORWAY WAS
> FLOODED IN TWO PLACES!!!  I had NEVER seen this happen before!
> Apparently the SE Fwy got flooded coming outbound too, and Logan Rd was
> totally closed - as there were logs floating across the road!  I then
> had the fun of trying to get around my local creek at home - Wrights
> road had 2-3ft of water lying across it so I had to go through Carindale
> - and only just, water was lapping up near Bedivere St/Old Cleveland Rd
> - again, new flood record for this area, it's never come that close to
> flooding before.  Meadowlands Rd was flooded - but only had a few inches
> of water coming across it - and was able to cross it safely (from storm
> water drains).  I got home and didn't have power, but it fortunately
> came on soon.  I received 141mm of rain all up.  Our entertainment area
> was flooded - and am trying to air that out today.  We were lucky that
> we live on a hill though.
>
> Many people did not fair so well - most major roads were still jammed as
> of 9:30pm last night - the railway line between Brisbane and the Gold
> Coast was cut north of Beenleigh, and many areas were flooded and people
> were trying to find alternate routes as well as pick up relatives who
> had originally caught the train to Brisbane.
>
> I went out and assessed damage in the east side today...it was hard, my
> God it was.  I was nearly reduced to tears myself looking at the despair
> on peoples faces near Stones Corner.  Many people who got flooded didn't
> even live near the creek, but the storm water drains just couldn't cope
> and in a developed area, there was nowhere for it to go, but in peoples
> houses and cars.  Many cars were being aired out with bonnets up and
> doors open.  The stench was horrendous.  There were people out on the
> streets crying - many who thought their car had been stolen soon
> realised that it had been washed away.  Easts club carpark was badly
> hit.  Near Old Cleveland Rd I saw cars floating upside down in the
> creek!!!  A boat was stuck against a business building, and a few cars
> had been washed up against fences.  A caryard nearby took the brunt of
> this.  Many people were attending to their businesses today and
> salvaging what they had left - they had no warning and some people lost
> a lot.  Some didn't have flood insurance and that made it even worse.
> One person phoned MMM in tears because he had lost his house boat and it
> had been badly damaged and washed up down Norman Creek.  It was all he
> had left - only the shirt on his back.  MMM then gave him accomodation
> as the casino for several nights and then he broke down over the phone
> again because he wouldn't be allowed in because he had no shoes (MMM
> then said they'd buy him some shoes).
>
> It was extremely sad and humbling.  It was overwhelming.  And I felt so
> sorry for all these people who didn't even have the chance to do
> anything.
>
> I guess this then brings up the sensitive topic and issue of warnings.
> Well, I have to admit I was surprised at the lack of warnings until
> later on in the event.  Perhaps what is needed is a trip for all BoM
> staff before they become forecasters, is to view damage first hand and
> see what it's like to be amongst it all, and then perhaps then they will
> feel and see the importance they have in the community to issue warnings
> and be more attentative of them.  All I can say is I hope the BoM learns
> from their mistakes tough.
>
> Meanwhile, I just had a weak TS go through about 20mins ago, it gave 8mm
> in 10mins - it showed up as light blue on radar...we will definately see
> more TS today.
>
> An absolutely horrendous flood event that's for sure...one person has
> lost their life in this after a car was swept away.  The mother got out,
> but the 12yo boys body was found earlier today...
>
> There is one thing though - people are helping people, even the Pacific
> Towing (I believe that's their name) offered to tow cars that are in
> creeks out of the water for free - which is really a great gift and
> asset to help out people, as they've already lost so much without having
> to pay out more money...
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 11:05:19 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane storm radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Laurier and all,

I've uploaded the hourly local loops for the 24hrs on March 9...

http://www.virtualchaser.com/anthony/March%2009/

Unfortunately I don't have radar for 5:30pm-6:10pm due to a blackout
interupting the loop sequence.  If anyone has this - I'd greatly
appreciate it if you could perhaps send it to me!

AC

Laurier Williams wrote:
> 
> Did anyone capture local radar images of yesterday's Brisbane storm?
> Unfortunately, I only capture the broadscale images.
> 
> Laurier
> 
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>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: : Blue Mountains rainfall
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 01:23:10 GMT
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On Sun, 11 Mar 2001 09:34:15 +1100, "Lindsay Pearce"
<writer at lisp.com.au> wrote:

>Hi all,
>
>Some pretty heavy rain here in Blackheath this Sunday morning. I had 48.5 mm
>from 8am to 9am. I've recorded heavier rates of rain over shorts periods but
>few like this for duration. As I type off-line at 9:30am, the rain has
>virtually stopped.
>
>Todays fall makes it rain on every day since Monday night, the 26th of
>February.
>
>Laurier, I'd be interested to know what rain you got out of this one, being
>closer to the escarpment.
>
Hi Lindsay

My 24-hour to 9am reading was 37.9, and I'd estimate about 35 of that
fell after 7am. I then had a further 15mm to 9.30 and 5mm to 10.00,
when rain ceased. So a total of about 55mm 7am to 10am. 

The Mt Boyce figures are:
10.8 07.00 to 08.00
  7.0 08.00 to 08.20
27.4 08.20 to 09.00
  8.8 09.00 to 10.00 when rain had virtually stopped
-------
54.0 total

The radar showed a broad area of rain moving slowly from just north of
west (say 280 degrees) with a number of embedded yellow areas. One of
these propagated slowly northwards while over us, so that probably
accounts for why my heaviest rain was 08.30 to 09.30, even though I'm
only a couple of km NE of you. My figures don't differ much from those
of Mt Boyce when broadscale rain areas are moving from the west, as
there appears to be little orographic effect. That's mostly reserved
for easterly rain, when I can get 3 or 4 times what Mt Boyce gets,
even though its only 3km to the west, and twice what a friend of mine
1km to the SW gets.

The rain is falling from an active cloudband aligned WNW to ESE, and
there's moderate to heavy rain now (12.15pm) from just north of
Lithgow ESE to the Sydney basin, which is fairly liberally coated with
dark and light blue and flecks of yellow on the radar right now.
Patches of green and pink are developing in the flow as it gets
offshore, suggesting some nice building going on as the cloudband gets
into the area of greater upper divergence that exists to our east.

Laurier

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 10:46:19 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 1 in 100 year events
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Basically it means there's a 1% chance of happening in any given year,
hence it should statistically occur once everyone 100 years.  But of
course, this is not always the case.

As you said, it could happen anytime again really, just a very low
probability.

AC

> Simon Clarke wrote:
> 
> John and others
> 
> The term 1 in 100 year event is often used out of context particularly
> by the media. It really is civil engineering terminology and used as a
> basis for stormwater drainage design etc.. (ie- they make a drain to
> suit rainfall events that they would only expect to occur at any one
> given location 1 time in 100 years). Therefore when a drain overflows
> they talk about the drain being designed to cater for 1 in 100 year
> events etc That is what is reinterpreted by the media into the
> sensational 1 in 100 year event story.
> 
> However, on the basis that key SEQ infrastructure such as the Gateway
> Motorway was breached by floodwaters in a number of places would
> strongly suggest that the duration/intensity of the storm in that
> location was particularly remarkable/event-worthy.
> 
> That's not to say it won't happen again (maybe next week, next year,
> in ten years etc... in that location who knows ?).
> 
> 
> Simon

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 11:56:39 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Next QLD ASWA Meeting - Visitors Welcome!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all!

Just a reminder about the next QLD ASWA meeting on this Saturday the
17th of March.

We still have lots of topics to talk about, we'll have a discussion on
the January 17-20 thunderstorm outbreak through QLD and NE NSW!  Also,
there's plenty more storm footage to go through during the January chase
season.  Not to mention the recent massive flash flood event for last
Friday, the 9th of March!  We'll have another discussion on this event,
and try and look at some of the causes and what exactly happened.  Not
to mention have a look at some of the footage and damage from this
phenomenal event!

Plenty to talk about - hope to see as many people as possible there!  If
you can come, it'd be appreciated if you can send me a quick email just
to let me know for numbers.

Please bring $4 for pizza and drinks!

The details:

Date: Saturday, 17th of March
Time: 9:45am for a 10am start - if you come late, phone 0417 759 304 and
we will send some one down to let you through the security.
Venue: Spherion Technology, Level 4, 200 Creek St, Brisbane (Right 
next to the Novotel) NB: The venue name has changed, however the venue
is still in exactly the same place.
What to bring?  Yourself, storm footage/photos you want to share, any
visitors, $4 for pizza and drinks.

Thanks!

Look forward to seeing you there!!!

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane storm radar
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 02:12:16 GMT
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Many thanks Anthony. They make interesting viewing, and at least help
in posing the questions, even if not providing the answers. The stream
showers and storms are moving from mostly 340 degrees throughout the
period, apart from some 020 movement around the Gold Coast early in
the period which would have given some nice local convergence. Yet the
enhanced rain area moves steadily north from around Logan City/Gold
Coast at 05z to wash out near Caloundra about 13z. Eight hours is a
long time to backbuild! 

The radar also helps explain why your normally very good severe wx
section didn't get out warnings as promptly as you'd expect, and were
basically reacting to events on the ground. It wasn't really until a
bit before 07z (1700 EST) that the abnormal structure was becoming
apparent from the radar, and I think the first warning went out at
4.33pm.

Thanks for posting these; they should certainly help the discussion.

Laurier


On Sun, 11 Mar 2001 11:05:19 +1000, Anthony Cornelius
<cyclone at bigpond.net.au> wrote:

>Hi Laurier and all,
>
>I've uploaded the hourly local loops for the 24hrs on March 9...
>
>http://www.virtualchaser.com/anthony/March%2009/
>
>Unfortunately I don't have radar for 5:30pm-6:10pm due to a blackout
>interupting the loop sequence.  If anyone has this - I'd greatly
>appreciate it if you could perhaps send it to me!
>
>AC
>
>Laurier Williams wrote:
>> 
>> Did anyone capture local radar images of yesterday's Brisbane storm?
>> Unfortunately, I only capture the broadscale images.
>> 
>> Laurier
>> 
>>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>>  message.
>>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 1 in 100 year events
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 12:17:01 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Anthony

It all about duration ! It is possible to have two or three 1 in 100 year
events in one event.

Ie - it could have rained  40mm in 15mm at one stage ( 1st event) and then
quietened off and then rained at 150mm in 1 hour (2nd event).
 and still overall be considered to be a single 1 in 100 years event.
Possibly it could also be considered 3 events ?

Very confusing terminology.

I remember only one other incident of a locked in situ storm previously and
that is going back some 15 - 20 years when I lived in Bundaberg.

A mega-super cell developed out of nowhere to the west of Bundaberg in a
quite unexpected weather environment. The storm sat in position for about
two hours about ten kilometres or so to the west and threw out some amazing
roll clouds over the top of my place. However the storm just did not move.

At my place 3 mm of rain fell in the event. But in the small almost
unnoticeable community of Bucca Weir (crazy name - crazy place) they had a
whopping 250mm plus. Other storm watchers will also note Bucca is famous for
perhaps one of Australia's most impressive tornado pictures (features in the
QLD Storm Spotters guide).

As for the Brisbane event, slightly different storm type, but similar end
result.

The rainfall contours must be between 10 - 20 mm per kilometre from centre
to edge.

I think we are have a sensational summer despite the fact that I think I
will take out the wooden spoon award for lack of rain. The competition is on
John !

Catch you later
Simon

----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 11:46 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 1 in 100 year events


> Basically it means there's a 1% chance of happening in any given year,
> hence it should statistically occur once everyone 100 years.  But of
> course, this is not always the case.
>
> As you said, it could happen anytime again really, just a very low
> probability.
>
> AC
>
> > Simon Clarke wrote:
> >
> > John and others
> >
> > The term 1 in 100 year event is often used out of context particularly
> > by the media. It really is civil engineering terminology and used as a
> > basis for stormwater drainage design etc.. (ie- they make a drain to
> > suit rainfall events that they would only expect to occur at any one
> > given location 1 time in 100 years). Therefore when a drain overflows
> > they talk about the drain being designed to cater for 1 in 100 year
> > events etc That is what is reinterpreted by the media into the
> > sensational 1 in 100 year event story.
> >
> > However, on the basis that key SEQ infrastructure such as the Gateway
> > Motorway was breached by floodwaters in a number of places would
> > strongly suggest that the duration/intensity of the storm in that
> > location was particularly remarkable/event-worthy.
> >
> > That's not to say it won't happen again (maybe next week, next year,
> > in ten years etc... in that location who knows ?).
> >
> >
> > Simon
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Zac" <mnk at dingoblue.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: STA for Canberra
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 17:56:27 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE<BR>TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE 
BROADCAST<BR>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY<BR>CANBERRA METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE<BR>Issued 
at 1704 on Sunday the 11th of March 2001<BR>A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE has 
been issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY <BR><BR>for people in the Australian 
Capital Territory.<BR><BR>Possible severe thunderstorms are expected in the ACT 
between 5.00 pm and<BR>11 pm.<BR> <BR>When they occur they may bring damaging 
winds and heavy rainfall. <BR><BR>Storms are currently to the east and the west 
of the ACT.<BR><BR>The ACT EMERGENCY SERVICE advises that as storms approach 
people should:<BR>&nbsp; put vehicles under cover or cover them with 
blankets<BR>&nbsp; move indoors away from windows<BR><BR>During and after the 
storm people should:<BR>&nbsp; take extreme care when driving <BR>&nbsp; beware 
of fallen trees and power lines <BR>&nbsp; keep away from creeks and drains as 
you may be swept away<BR>&nbsp; shelter in the strongest part of a building [eg. 
bathroom or basement]<BR></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Zac" <mnk at dingoblue.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: STA for NSW
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 17:57:35 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST<BR><BR>SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
ADVICE<BR>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY<BR>NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE<BR>Issued at 
1632 on Sunday the 11th of March 2001<BR><BR>This advice cancels and replaces 
the earlier advice issued at 3:36pm and<BR>now affects people in the following 
weather districts:<BR><BR>Central Tablelands, south of Mudgee<BR>Central West 
Slopes, south of Dubbo&nbsp; <BR>Southern Tablelands<BR>South West 
Slopes<BR>Riverina, east of a line Griffith to Corowa<BR><BR><BR>Thunderstorms 
are forecast within the advice area this afternoon and<BR>evening. Some of these 
are expected to be severe bringing very heavy rain<BR>and flash flooding, and a 
chance of large hailstones and damaging winds.<BR><BR>The STATE EMERGENCY 
SERVICE advises that as storms approach people should:<BR>&nbsp; * put vehicles 
under cover <BR>&nbsp; * move indoors away from windows<BR><BR>During and after 
the storm people should:<BR>&nbsp; * beware of fallen trees and power lines 
<BR>&nbsp; * keep away from creeks and drains as you may be swept away <BR> 
<BR>The RTA recommends motorists switch their lights &amp; wipers on &amp; slow 
down in<BR>the wet.<BR> <BR>If your house is damaged contact the State Emergency 
Service on 132 500 for<BR>emergency assistance. Do not use the telephone during 
the storm. <BR><BR>TV CRAWL: Severe Thunderstorm Advice current for&nbsp; 
Southern Tablelands,<BR>South West Slopes, and&nbsp; parts of Riverina, Central 
Tablelands and Central<BR>West Slopes.<BR><BR>MEDIA PLEASE NOTE: This Advice 
message is valid until 7pm. The Bureau and<BR>SES would appreciate it being 
broadcast regularly until this time.<!--************* START OF STANDARD FOOTER & COPYRIGHT ************** --></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 20:27:15 +1100 (EDT)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane storm radar: 5:30pm-6:10pm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi all

I've put the Brisbane local radar images here at:

http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_03_09/images.html

Unfortunately, I don't know what your time zone is, so I've just put a
swag of images around those times. The times I've specified on the page
are UTC times.

I don't save the broad Brisbane images, but for Anthony's benefit (or
anyone else for that matter), you can also find the broad images for
Grafton and Gympie on that page. For ease, you can download the whole lot
as a zip file at "ALL IMAGES" at the bottom of the page. 


Cheers


On Sun, 11 Mar 2001, Anthony Cornelius wrote:

> Unfortunately I don't have radar for 5:30pm-6:10pm due to a blackout
> interupting the loop sequence.  If anyone has this - I'd greatly
> appreciate it if you could perhaps send it to me!
> 


--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 19:55:34 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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Hi all!

My chase report from March 9 is currently online:

http://www.bsch.au.com/storm_chasing/09_03_01ac.shtml

From a still astounded...
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: NSW storms
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 11:23:31 GMT
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Narara (north of Gosford) reported 62mm 3 to 9pm, 41 of it falling
between 4 and 6pm. Norah Head had 38.2 in the hour to 7.30pm. Quite a
vicious looking storm on the radar north of Yass at the moment,
heading ESE.

Laurier

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 22:20:33 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Presentation of last night's meeting
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

After some encouragement, I decided to put online the presentation I gave 
at the ASWA meeting last night. It is all in a slide show so you can see 
what you want of it if you so wish.

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2001/slide/supercell_case_study.htm

I am not saying at all that I am an expert in this field but I feel that 
this season has open up my perceptions of supercell behaviour...

Constructive comments certainly welcome and I will definitely update any 
errors if necessary.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
From: "Zac" <mnk at dingoblue.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storms Western NSW
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 22:18:45 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi group,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just received a phonecall from Parkes telling Me 
"skys on Fire"&nbsp; apparently lightning all over the place, and quite a heavy 
storm in&nbsp; Forbes as well.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Anyone heard anything?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Max</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW storms
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 11:30:58 GMT
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On Sun, 11 Mar 2001 11:23:31 GMT, wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier
Williams) wrote:

>Narara (north of Gosford) reported 62mm 3 to 9pm, 41 of it falling
>between 4 and 6pm. Norah Head had 38.2 in the hour to 7.30pm. Quite a
>vicious looking storm on the radar north of Yass at the moment,
>heading ESE.
>
That should be ENE.

Laurier

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Rainfall extremes
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 11:46:46 GMT
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I've revised the program that prepares my daily rainfall and
temperature extremes to present a more user-friendly set of
short-duration rainfall data. From
http://www.australianweathernews.com, follow the News and Extremes
link, and click on 9 March 2001, for example, to see the figures for
the Brisbane event.

BTW,, Don White had a report from Queensland Roads which said 200mm
fell in 55 minutes at their gauge in Logan City.

Dave Williams, an ex Bureau forecaster with a passion for statistics,
sent me the following on return periods for some of the rain figures
on Friday night:

Laurier	

Some ARI's from some of the data I saw on your site:

	10/03/2001

	Coolangatta AP		37.2mm/ 20mins		~ 4 years
				58.0mm/ 80 mins		~ 2 years

	09/03/2001

	Archerfield		47.2mm/ 30mins		~ 7 years
				77.0mm/ 60mins		15-16 years
				94.0mm/ 90mins		22-23 years

	Nambour		       129.2mm/ 47mins		> 100 years
			       153.2mm/ 60mins		> 100 years
			       [91mm/47mins & 102mm/60mins = 100 year]

	Brisbane		48.6mm/ 24mins		13-14 years
				83.8mm/ 60mins		20-21 years
			       100.2mm/ 90mins		25-26 years

	Given the figures for Logan City, which had 260mm/18hrs, and
using a
similar temporal pattern as that for Brisbane etc, would produce some
values around 50% above a 1-in-100 year event. Nothing short of an
exceptional event.

Cheers

Laurier

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.29.156.4]
From: "T Middleton" <anvil_industries at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Fallstreak photos/Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 12:02:15 
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<x-flowed>
hi everyone,
heres some photos of the 'fallstreaks' Clyve had mentiooned in this earlier 
post,as seen for my location (near Wonthaggi,Vic.
http://www.crosswinds.net/~anvils/Fallstreaks.htm


>From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
>Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2001 21:51:40 +1100
>
>Hi Michael.
>I sat out the backyard yesterday morning and watched some magnificent
>fallstreaks cascading from dense patches of cirrus,all coming from a 
>bearing
>of 190 degrees moving at about 40 to 50 knots.The cirrus looked stunning
>when viewed with polarizing glasses. This orientation of the upper flow is
>also most unusual for this part of Aus,however I have noted it can occur
>under these conditions... on the western side of a low pressure system
>moving eastward across eastern Vic,on an occasion yesterday ahead of a
>strong upper level ridge to the west of Victoria and in deep cold unstable
>southwest to southerly airmasses with embedded CBs.The upper atmospheric
>conditions on Sunday were saturated for ice accumulations, the moisture
>appears to have arrived ex former tropical cyclone Vincent/Winsome.All 
>great
>stuff,I counted 3 spots of rain this afternoon from mid level
>showers!!!!.regards Clyve Herbert.
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Michael Thompson <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
>To: Aussie Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>;
><aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Monday, February 19, 2001 8:04 PM
>Subject: aus-wx: Anybody notice the cirrus direction in NSW today !
>
>
> > Anybody around coastal NSW notice the direction the cirrus was moving 
>from
> > today. It was coming from the SE.
> >
> > This is quite unusual and sometimes can be associated with east coast
>lows,
> > BUT in this case it is much the opposite case with a jet associated with 
>a
> > horrible ridge of high pressure.
> >
> > Michael Thompson
> > http://ozthunder.com
> >
> >
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>
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_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 23:12:41 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Vic weather in the distance
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Evening all,

A few images of the storms on the eastern ranges today.....and 'someone'
Paul Yole & I saw yesterday  <ahem> .................................

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/11_03_01.htm

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic weather in the distance
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 12:35:29 -0000
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Now thats what you call windswept (:

Les
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 12:12 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Vic weather in the distance


> Evening all,
>
> A few images of the storms on the eastern ranges today.....and 'someone'
> Paul Yole & I saw yesterday  <ahem> .................................
>
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/11_03_01.htm
>
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 00:02:43 +1100
From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Winter Approaches
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Hi all,

I have noticed in the last few days that the models are just starting to
reveal a few winter trends creeping back. Lower thicknesses are slowly
begining to buldge north and the ridge in the southern ocean looks about
ready to begin its transition northward.

The front expected to pass through the SE tomorrow has a toungue of 535
thickness behind it that AVN forecasts to reach Bass Strait - snowfalls
are progged for the higher parts of Tas.

This should fire Lindsay P and the rest of us winter suckers up a bit :)

Andrew.

-- 

With regard to (and in protest of) the new laws involving forwarding of
messages, this email MAY be forwarded.

Andrew Miskelly
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <snowfall at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Blue Mountains rainfall
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 16:53:43 +1100
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Hi Laurier,

Thanks for all of that, it made for interesting reading. Silly me, I was so
busy writing that email this morning that I just presumed it was still the
easterly flow that was directing the rain at us. As soon as I got online,
had a chat to a few folk and also checked the obs, I realised it was from
the west, so as you say, less chance of it being orographically enhanced
from that direction.

Cheers,

Lindsay Pearce

> Hi Lindsay
>
> My 24-hour to 9am reading was 37.9, and I'd estimate about 35 of that
> fell after 7am. I then had a further 15mm to 9.30 and 5mm to 10.00,
> when rain ceased. So a total of about 55mm 7am to 10am.
>
> The Mt Boyce figures are:
> 10.8 07.00 to 08.00
>   7.0 08.00 to 08.20
> 27.4 08.20 to 09.00
>   8.8 09.00 to 10.00 when rain had virtually stopped
> -------
> 54.0 total
>
> The radar showed a broad area of rain moving slowly from just north of
> west (say 280 degrees) with a number of embedded yellow areas. One of
> these propagated slowly northwards while over us, so that probably
> accounts for why my heaviest rain was 08.30 to 09.30, even though I'm
> only a couple of km NE of you. My figures don't differ much from those
> of Mt Boyce when broadscale rain areas are moving from the west, as
> there appears to be little orographic effect. That's mostly reserved
> for easterly rain, when I can get 3 or 4 times what Mt Boyce gets,
> even though its only 3km to the west, and twice what a friend of mine
> 1km to the SW gets.
>
> The rain is falling from an active cloudband aligned WNW to ESE, and
> there's moderate to heavy rain now (12.15pm) from just north of
> Lithgow ESE to the Sydney basin, which is fairly liberally coated with
> dark and light blue and flecks of yellow on the radar right now.
> Patches of green and pink are developing in the flow as it gets
> offshore, suggesting some nice building going on as the cloudband gets
> into the area of greater upper divergence that exists to our east.
>
> Laurier
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at australia.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic weather in the distance
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 00:31:04 +1100
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That last image was a classic Jane. Now we know why the ozone layer is being
depleted.........she had like 3 cans of hairspray in that........lol

PaulY

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 11:12 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Vic weather in the distance


> Evening all,
>
> A few images of the storms on the eastern ranges today.....and 'someone'
> Paul Yole & I saw yesterday  <ahem> .................................
>
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/11_03_01.htm
>
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: NSW Flooding
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 19:06:09 -0000
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<x-html>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Everyone -</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Images of extensive flooding in NSW on BBC News 
tonight (1645GMT) how bad is it - havn't seen too meny reports on the 
list.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Les (UK)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 07:40:30 +1100
From: Paul Lesiow <fatman at acay.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mail Warrior 2
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
CC: 
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW storms
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Original message from: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) 
<aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>On Sun, 11 Mar 2001 11:23:31 GMT, wbc at ozemail.com.au 
(Laurier
>Williams) wrote:
>
>>Narara (north of Gosford) reported 62mm 3 to 9pm, 41 of it 
falling
>>between 4 and 6pm. Norah Head had 38.2 in the hour to 
7.30pm. Quite a
>>vicious looking storm on the radar north of Yass at the 
moment,
>>heading ESE.
>>
>That should be ENE.
>
>Laurier

Yeah, we did have heaps of rain here at Narara, I recorded 
personally 25 mm between 5-6PM.  That's when it was pouring 
down quite heavily.

Paul
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Apparently-From: <njsykes at yahoo.com>
From: "Nick Sykes" <njsykes at yahoo.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Early Season Cold Outbreak
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 07:55:57 +1100
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Hey All

Looks like Southern Victoria and Tasmania are in for an Autumn cold
outbreak. The latest forecasts have hail and local thunder. Nice cold air
pool on the latest sat pic. This will stop Melbourne's record run of 20+
days.

I have completed the first draft of mt new website and have put it online.

it can be found at www.vicstorms.com or www.crosswinds.net/~vicstorms

Any comments etc appreciated.

Nick Sykes


_________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Phenomenal Flood Event in Brisbane
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 07:02:01 +1000
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I was driving around Shorncliffe, Sandgate and Bondall areas around 5 pm
onwards and would have to agree with you. The storm looked incredible. I hit
areas of rain at least 100mm/h. I then went back to Clontarf to the boat
ramp and had a look at the whole storm and it was absolutely huge.

David

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ben Quinn
Sent: Sunday, 11 March 2001 10:52 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Phenomenal Flood Event in Brisbane


Hi all

I echo Anthonys sentiments - this event was almost overwhelming for me.  I
spent the whole day chasing, from the Sunshine Coast hinterland where i
encountered a very severe (rainfall intensity wise) and almost stationary
storm around Beerwah, to Aspley in the evening where i witnessed the most
mind blowing events i have ever seen in my life.

I drove around the northern suburbs in moderate-heavy rain with distant
lightning for few hours from about 5pm onwards - the traffic was terrible
and i was about to head home when i noticed lightning was starting to
increase to the NNW, so turned around and drove towards the Zilmere/Asply
area.  Before i knew it i was in the middle of yet another severe storm -
the wind at the beginning was bordering on severe, but the most impressive
(and severe) thing was the intensity of the rain - it was amazing.  The
lightning was also frequent, with many strikes within 1km.  After about 20
minutes of this i though "geeze there are going to be some big totals from
this" .....if only i knew

I decided to head towards the Aspley area where i knew of a few flood prone
areas - boy was that a big mistake.  After doing several U turns to avoid
flooded streets, i ended up getting stuck in traffic just outside of the
Hyperdome shopping center.  This is where things started to get scary - the
creek there rose so quickly! I walked into KFC to get a quick snack, and
walked out 5 minutes later to see the water had risen several feet!  The
carpark under KFC (underground style) was quickly filling with water, and
people were running around frantically trying to save their cars.  I was
standing on a set of stairs, watching the water rise and all of a sudden
cars started floating! My head was spinning - and the rain was still pouring
down!  Only a matter of metres away was a major intersection which was cut
by the local creek.  The water was flowing with such force that several cars
were plucked from a caryard and were carried down the creek creek.  There
were also 2 or 3 cars who tried to drive through the flooded intersection at
the onset of the flooding, but their cars had stalled.  These cars were now
almost completely covered in water, and had been pushed up against side
railings by the force of the water.  The whole scene was just mind blowing

There is a preliminary report up on BSCH which will be completed today.
There are a few photos from previous days there, and many more will be added
over the next few days (including some stills from channel 7's footage)

http://www.bsch.au.com/reports/09_03_01.shtml


----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 10, 2001 2:18 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Phenomenal Flood Event in Brisbane


> Hi all,
>
> Finally got a chance to email!
>
> Yesterday was absolutely phenomenal, I had never experienced anything
> like it!  I was driving home from uni on the M4, and got caught in the
> storm and I actually missed my turnoff due to the heavy rain, I couldn't
> even see the bonnet of my car let alone the road, or an exit sign!  I
> wanted to  pull over, but it was too dangerous as I was afraid some one
> might go up the back of me.  I ended up looking out the side window
> doing 30-40km/h trying to work out where the road was.  I had to
> continue on the M6 towards Logan - the M6 was reduced to a standstill
> during the rain.  I tried to get off the M6, and got lost in the south
> side - there were accidents everywhere, stormwater drains were
> overflowing and there was several inches of water running across the
> road every few hundred metres.  Houses were being flooded and people
> were trying to remove their belonings as huge volumes of water swept
> through into their house.  People couldn't even use umbrellas - not so
> much because of the winds, but because cars could not help splashing
> water over them due to the imense amount of water over the road.  Many
> roads had to be closed and traffic went into total chaos by 5pm.  Storm
> water drains that went underneath roads were under so much pressure that
> some of them actually had erupted underneath the road, and there were
> fountains of water in the middle of the road!  It was total mayhem - I
> found myself in Woodridge and decided to visit James and try and wait
> out the storm.  All throughout there were near frequent flangs at times
> - made you sh!t yourself!
>
> I arrived to James' and had to take my shoes off to get out of the car
> as his carport was ankle deep in water.  The rain was still torrential -
> and there was still plenty of lightning and thunder!  One CG (while
> talking to Macca on the phone) actually blacked out the area!  Just near
> James people had their houses knee deep in water simply from drainage
> not being able to cope.  Eventually I had to go and attend to our
> terminally ill cat.  But it was not going to be easy!  It took me 1.5hrs
> - the journey is normally 20-25mins!  The M1 was a total crawl inbound
> and outbound, even when the M1 divided into the F3 and M1 (Gateway
> Mwy/SE Fwy), it was only marginally better.  THE GATEWAY MOTORWAY WAS
> FLOODED IN TWO PLACES!!!  I had NEVER seen this happen before!
> Apparently the SE Fwy got flooded coming outbound too, and Logan Rd was
> totally closed - as there were logs floating across the road!  I then
> had the fun of trying to get around my local creek at home - Wrights
> road had 2-3ft of water lying across it so I had to go through Carindale
> - and only just, water was lapping up near Bedivere St/Old Cleveland Rd
> - again, new flood record for this area, it's never come that close to
> flooding before.  Meadowlands Rd was flooded - but only had a few inches
> of water coming across it - and was able to cross it safely (from storm
> water drains).  I got home and didn't have power, but it fortunately
> came on soon.  I received 141mm of rain all up.  Our entertainment area
> was flooded - and am trying to air that out today.  We were lucky that
> we live on a hill though.
>
> Many people did not fair so well - most major roads were still jammed as
> of 9:30pm last night - the railway line between Brisbane and the Gold
> Coast was cut north of Beenleigh, and many areas were flooded and people
> were trying to find alternate routes as well as pick up relatives who
> had originally caught the train to Brisbane.
>
> I went out and assessed damage in the east side today...it was hard, my
> God it was.  I was nearly reduced to tears myself looking at the despair
> on peoples faces near Stones Corner.  Many people who got flooded didn't
> even live near the creek, but the storm water drains just couldn't cope
> and in a developed area, there was nowhere for it to go, but in peoples
> houses and cars.  Many cars were being aired out with bonnets up and
> doors open.  The stench was horrendous.  There were people out on the
> streets crying - many who thought their car had been stolen soon
> realised that it had been washed away.  Easts club carpark was badly
> hit.  Near Old Cleveland Rd I saw cars floating upside down in the
> creek!!!  A boat was stuck against a business building, and a few cars
> had been washed up against fences.  A caryard nearby took the brunt of
> this.  Many people were attending to their businesses today and
> salvaging what they had left - they had no warning and some people lost
> a lot.  Some didn't have flood insurance and that made it even worse.
> One person phoned MMM in tears because he had lost his house boat and it
> had been badly damaged and washed up down Norman Creek.  It was all he
> had left - only the shirt on his back.  MMM then gave him accomodation
> as the casino for several nights and then he broke down over the phone
> again because he wouldn't be allowed in because he had no shoes (MMM
> then said they'd buy him some shoes).
>
> It was extremely sad and humbling.  It was overwhelming.  And I felt so
> sorry for all these people who didn't even have the chance to do
> anything.
>
> I guess this then brings up the sensitive topic and issue of warnings.
> Well, I have to admit I was surprised at the lack of warnings until
> later on in the event.  Perhaps what is needed is a trip for all BoM
> staff before they become forecasters, is to view damage first hand and
> see what it's like to be amongst it all, and then perhaps then they will
> feel and see the importance they have in the community to issue warnings
> and be more attentative of them.  All I can say is I hope the BoM learns
> from their mistakes tough.
>
> Meanwhile, I just had a weak TS go through about 20mins ago, it gave 8mm
> in 10mins - it showed up as light blue on radar...we will definately see
> more TS today.
>
> An absolutely horrendous flood event that's for sure...one person has
> lost their life in this after a car was swept away.  The mother got out,
> but the 12yo boys body was found earlier today...
>
> There is one thing though - people are helping people, even the Pacific
> Towing (I believe that's their name) offered to tow cars that are in
> creeks out of the water for free - which is really a great gift and
> asset to help out people, as they've already lost so much without having
> to pay out more money...
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 08:28:05 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: Storms....
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Some storms developed in central NSW late last night, and certainly
looked like there could be a supercell or 5 in the lot going by the sat
pics. The line has merged together overnight and moved east, and a huge
mass of rain/storms is currently located over the central tablelands,
headed for the sydney basin. Also another line of storms developing down
towards
Wagga.... will be a very interesting day.

Matt Smith
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Cold pool.
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 10:41:39 +1100
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Hi winter lovers.
Nice surface cold air field moving onto the Tasmanian and Victorian coasts
this morning,might see some snow on the Tasmanian high country down to 700m
this afternoon and over the Victorian alps getting down to 1000m later
today,also the cold air warm sea interaction may provide some lively cold CB
developments over Bass Strait this afternoon,also its interesting to see how
far the stratocu has got into Western SA and almost as far north as eastern
central WA may reflect the moist surface air remaining after heavy rain in
those areas last week.regards Clyve H.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 10:44:32 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide - autumn hits!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Yay,

Pathetic litle cluster of puffy winter type Cu just dumped a grand total of
about 1mm on my place.  Not much, but after months of heat hell, it's a
start.... :)

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 11:47:38 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold pool.
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Morning all,

Went for a walk in the RAIN this morning.....lovely stuff considering I'd only
had 1 rain day in the past 24 - I've now doubled that, but the total is still
only 1mm.  Maybe that will change later today.

This morning's current aviation forecast.......there is a forecast of HAIL!!!!!
(that's GR in METAR terminology) & the freezing level takes a dive from 12,000'
to 6,000' west of the front (when was the last time we had a freezing level that
low?)

LOW LEVEL TROUGH NEAR DENILIQUIN/CAMUS. FRONT FORECAST NEAR RENMARK/FLINDERS
ISLAND 23Z, DENILIQUIN/ORBOST 05Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/HAIL E OF
DENILIQUIN/FLIKI AND W OF FRONT ON AND S OF RANGES. SHOWERS LOCALLY HEAVY MAINLY
NEAR FRONT/SEA/COAST. LOW CLOUD IN PRECIPITATION

SUBDIVISIONS:
A: E OF FRONT
B: W OF FRONT

WIND:
      2000        5000        7000       10000                   14000
18500
 A: 280/20     290/25     290/30     300/35 PS01     300/45 MS07     300/55 MS16

 B: 220/25     230/25     230/25     230/30 MS04     230/40 MS10     230/50 MS17

(notice that the temp drops from +1C to -4C at 10,000' with the passage of the
front - most dramatic temperature change at that level for months)

CLOUD:
ISOL CB 3500/30000 E OF DENILIQUIN/FLIKI AND W OF FRONT ON AND S OF RANGES. BKN
ST 500/3000 IN PRECIP. SCT CU 3500/15000 BKN NEAR FRONT/RANGES. BKN ACAS ABV
10000 E OF FRONT

WEATHER: TSRA/GR, HEAVY SHRA.
(translation: storms with rain / hail, heavy showers of rain)

FREEZING LEVEL: A: 12000  B: 6000

I think I'm going to enjoy winter this year!!!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

clyve herbert wrote:

> Hi winter lovers.
> Nice surface cold air field moving onto the Tasmanian and Victorian coasts
> this morning,might see some snow on the Tasmanian high country down to 700m
> this afternoon and over the Victorian alps getting down to 1000m later
> today,also the cold air warm sea interaction may provide some lively cold CB
> developments over Bass Strait this afternoon,also its interesting to see how
> far the stratocu has got into Western SA and almost as far north as eastern
> central WA may reflect the moist surface air remaining after heavy rain in
> those areas last week.regards Clyve H.
>



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane TS
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 12:36:59 +1000
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Hi Anthony,

Just to add to this, I called it as I saw it and it is quite likely that
events at Sumner and Fig Tree pocket were a lot less severe than some other
parts of town.

However, the rainfall at Sumner was sufficiently intense to cause an awesome
waterfall down the external staircase next to the office from water coming
off the ridge behind us, which is something I have not seen here before.
This did not start until some 30 minutes after the onset of heavy rain, thus
duration had everything to do with it.  Also Ipswich Rd and part of the
Western freeway were flooded causing a huge traffic jam going South.

According to radar it was yellow/green at my location for much of the
downpour which agrees with my visual estimate of rain intensity.  Seeing as
the average severe storm in Brisbane produces plenty of red on radar, and
this didn't, you would have to give the radar some credibility.  Also totals
of 280mm over a 4 hour period suggest average rates around 70mm/hour, which
also tends to agree with local radar echoes, allowing for a little
under-estimation.  Even if peak intensities were double this, I could not
rate this rainfall rate extreme compared to 300mm/hr, which I have seen.

But of course 280mm in 4 hours is an absolutely incredible amount of water
and that will cause the kind of flash flood chaos and damage that occurred.
No doubt seeing this first hand leaves a vivid impression and wobbly knees.

Visibility driving was attrocious, with the Western freeway slowed to a
30km/hr crawl going North (at a standstill going South) due to the heavy
rain, assisted by the time of day and the fact that cloud base was on the
ground in the Chapel Hill area, thus it was foggy as well.  But things
always look much worse while driving and rainfall far more intense that it
actually is.

Lightning frequency was taken from external observation of the cloud line at
dusk, when each stroke was clearly visible (sometimes dramatically so, with
lightning forking in and out of the clouds).  But I have seen plenty of
storms with lightning (even CG's) at least 2 per second, many of which had
continual flickering at high altitude.  So no, I wouldn't rate this as
particularly electrically active.  But then again, I was not in a part of
Brisbane most badly affected, and lightning may have been more intense
locally earlier in the day.  Lightning tracker indicated the heaviest
activity to the SE.

Curiously I noticed a plague of tiny baby Cane Toads around the office this
morning (even on the 2nd level!) - guess the last 4 days were ideal breeding
conditions.

>snip

Hi John,

Just a few observations and comments...

John Woodbridge wrote:
>
> What happened is simple, the line was tending to drift towards the coast
and
> drifted over land with the onset of the afternoon seabreeze where it
> stalled.  Individuals cells moved down the line, but the movement was just
> about coincincidental with backbuilding, such that radar signatures showed
> little movement (i.e., quasi-stationary).

I agree with you here, the thunderstorms themselves weren't so much slow
moving (although they weren't fast moving), but they continued to
develop on the northern end, as they moved south.  They were able to do
this due to very high CAPE (3000-4000 or more estimate, will do a proper
calculation in a future report), and the convergence zone feeding into
it.

A large complex built over
> southern Brisbane as part of the line and remained quasi-stationary for
some
> hours with the resulting deluge.  The TS themselves were not particularly
> severe and of the multicell variety,

I have to disagree with you here, aside from the flash flooding that
washed cars down creeks...

http://www.bsch.au.com/anthony/flood/KS548.JPG (example)

several units lost their rooves to high winds, and there were numerous
reports of high winds bringing trees down.  Although one could say the
ground was softened from very heavy rain - the units certainly had
strong winds.  I didn't experience any severe winds, however at times
they were reaching gale force while driving!

>nor particularly electrically active,

Again I have to disagree with you - underneath the storms, thunder was
constant, with one rumble/clap just rolling into another.  Lightning at
times was every few seconds.  HOWEVER - the intensity fluctuated
greatly, and it depeneded on whether you have extremely heavy torrential
rain, or just heavy rain at the time.  If you "only" had heavy rain,
lightning frequently increased dramatically.  My guess is that the rain
blocked a lot of the lightning from view.

> neither were precip rates that extreme (none showed red on radar, although
> there were patches of pink)

Once again ( :) ) I have to disagree with you!  The rain rates I was
experiencing at times were the highest I had ever experienced in my
life!  For example, this is how it was like doing 30km/h:

http://www.bsch.au.com/anthony/KS489.JPG

No visibility at all - to the point where attempting to pull over would
have meant some one would just run up my arse.  Streets were constantly
awash like:

http://www.bsch.au.com/anthony/flood/KS482.JPG

Brisbane local *underestimates* - especially in heavy rain/rain
band/coastal shower/TS situations.  Yellow/green/pink is ****ing heavy
rain!  I think this is why the BoM didn't pick up the event earlier,
because they do not look at correlations between radar and actual
recorded rainfall to have an idea on how radar works.  They just assume
it is correct.

> and no hail as far as I am aware.

Hail was reported near Holland Park - although I'm unaware of the
size/amount.  At times I was unsure whether I had small hail hitting the
car, as I could see things bouncing, but the drops were so big they were
bouncing too...but occassionally something would bounce higher.
>
> I drove out of the line on my way home to Mt. Crosby, which was in clear
> air.  I had a lovely view of the line over Brisbane, which looked very
> similar to that observed off the coast in the morning - just a bit closer.
> It was just past sundown, and the lightning effects were quite superb,
> around 1 flash every two seconds or so somewhere along the line.

Flash every 2 seconds is infrequent? :-)  I would love to see a storm
that is "electricially active" then <g>

The line
> had drifted back out to sea by mid evening.
>
> Cloud structure generally appeared tropical, i.e., definitely not cold air
> CB's, with little glaciation only in the upper levels - little in the way
of
> anvils, indicative of low shear throughout the atmosphere.

Glaciation was not overly present - agreed - this was weird given that
the upper levels were quite cold for a tropical lower level
atmosphere(500mb temp -10).  I think something else was that there were
opposing steering winds, in particular the steering levels that assisted
in slow movement - although, they did not move as slow as they appeared
on radar.

> The event has been rated as 1 in 100 yr in the media - I think this is
> probably not very accurate.

The BoM said it was a 1 in 100 yr event, so I believe the media are just
quoting off them.

I would say that this event for Brisbane metro is very rare!  Especially
on this magnitude.

Similarly, quasi-stationary thunderstorms are not that unusual
> either, but perhaps the occurence over a major population centre is.  The
> amount of available moisture in the atmosphere probably had most to do
with
> sustaining the line throughout the day, and the amount of rain that
> consequently fell.

I think these types of occurrences tend to favour the ranges more so
then over Brisbane in the "plains" of SE QLD.

Anyway - I'm sure this will make a very interesting discussion for this
Saturday's ASWA meeting!

AC

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.54.87.204]
From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Winter is on the way!!!
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 13:27:22 +1030
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<x-flowed>
Yes we did get a very light amount of rain in Adelaide this morning. I'm 
amazed we got any.  It has gotten rather cool and windy here and in 
Victoria, Tas and NSW the weather looks rather interesting.  However my eyes 
are firmly focused on a low/frontal system that is expected to develop in 
the western Bight by the middle of the week.  This system looks rather 
strong, WA BOM even calling it a moderate front, there is however talk of it 
weakening as it makes its way across the Bight.  Adelaide might just be 
lucky enough to get some rain from this if it weakens.  If it didn't weaken 
as much as forecast then some significant rain could be on the cards.  There 
is also mention of hail and local thunderstorms reaching as far north as 
southern WA from this system.  Whatever the outcome winter is definately 
showing signs of a rather quick return!  High pressure systems seem to 
migrating further north faster this year than last year, maybe I'm wrong?  
Anyway Autum Equinox is only 8 days away and daylight savings also ends in 
13 days.



_________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Re Winter Approaching
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 14:29:09 +1100
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G'day Andrew Miskelly and all,

Oh yes, sounds good to me. Love those sub 540 thickness lines.

Actually, and I feel a tad silly, I had this weird dream the other day about
sub 540 thickness charts being broadcast on the news somehow and then I
drove to Oberon in this dream and it hailed the size of bricks. Weird dream
but hey, at least I didn't have to pay for any petrol on that chase. :) Pity
I can't scan the images though...

As the summer storm hounds say, "Bring it oooooon!" or my one, "Snow? Sleet?
Snow! Yessssssssssssss!"

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 14:42:18 +1100
From: Chas & Helen Osborn <hosborn at tassie.net.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold pool.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hello Everyone

2.30pm.
We have had some of the best observable storms through here today (most of the
time the storms are not visible because of low cloud, embedded or occur at
night). They are producing gale force winds and hail about twice the size of
winter storms. At the moment we have one every hour or so with lulls in-between.
The last storm produced a rumble of thunder.

Chas
Strahan Tasmania

clyve herbert wrote:

> Hi winter lovers.
> Nice surface cold air field moving onto the Tasmanian and Victorian coasts
> this morning,might see some snow on the Tasmanian high country down to 700m
> this afternoon and over the Victorian alps getting down to 1000m later
> today,also the cold air warm sea interaction may provide some lively cold CB
> developments over Bass Strait this afternoon,also its interesting to see how
> far the stratocu has got into Western SA and almost as far north as eastern
> central WA may reflect the moist surface air remaining after heavy rain in
> those areas last week.regards Clyve H.
>
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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Winter is on the way!!!
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 13:32:42 +1000
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Keeping in mind that Siberia has had it's worst winter on record, is the
pendulum going swing all the way and go that extreme in the Southern
hemisphere also??  Could be a real shock after the late heat in places like
Perth.

John.
>snip

Subject: aus-wx: Winter is on the way!!!

Yes we did get a very light amount of rain in Adelaide this morning. I'm
amazed we got any.  It has gotten rather cool and windy here and in
Victoria, Tas and NSW the weather looks rather interesting.  However my eyes
are firmly focused on a low/frontal system that is expected to develop in
the western Bight by the middle of the week.  This system looks rather
strong, WA BOM even calling it a moderate front, there is however talk of it
weakening as it makes its way across the Bight.  Adelaide might just be
lucky enough to get some rain from this if it weakens.  If it didn't weaken
as much as forecast then some significant rain could be on the cards.  There
is also mention of hail and local thunderstorms reaching as far north as
southern WA from this system.  Whatever the outcome winter is definately
showing signs of a rather quick return!  High pressure systems seem to
migrating further north faster this year than last year, maybe I'm wrong?
Anyway Autum Equinox is only 8 days away and daylight savings also ends in
13 days.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 12:08:45 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Winter is on the way!!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Yeah, Perth was only going for 19C on Thursday, the BoM have just changed
it to 20C, but I can't remember that last time there has been a forecast of
20C or below in Perth in March before. The BoM are also calling for a
moderate cold front to move through on Wednesday night, not very often you
hear of moderate fronts around here during this time of year. Pretty
amazing when you consider this time last week we were sitting in a middle
of a heatwave.

Jacob

At 01:32 PM 12/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Keeping in mind that Siberia has had it's worst winter on record, is the
>pendulum going swing all the way and go that extreme in the Southern
>hemisphere also??  Could be a real shock after the late heat in places like
>Perth.
>
>John.
>>snip
>
>Subject: aus-wx: Winter is on the way!!!
>
>Yes we did get a very light amount of rain in Adelaide this morning. I'm
>amazed we got any.  It has gotten rather cool and windy here and in
>Victoria, Tas and NSW the weather looks rather interesting.  However my eyes
>are firmly focused on a low/frontal system that is expected to develop in
>the western Bight by the middle of the week.  This system looks rather
>strong, WA BOM even calling it a moderate front, there is however talk of it
>weakening as it makes its way across the Bight.  Adelaide might just be
>lucky enough to get some rain from this if it weakens.  If it didn't weaken
>as much as forecast then some significant rain could be on the cards.  There
>is also mention of hail and local thunderstorms reaching as far north as
>southern WA from this system.  Whatever the outcome winter is definately
>showing signs of a rather quick return!  High pressure systems seem to
>migrating further north faster this year than last year, maybe I'm wrong?
>Anyway Autum Equinox is only 8 days away and daylight savings also ends in
>13 days.
>
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From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Early Season Cold Outbreak
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 15:19:02 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> Hey All
> 
> Looks like Southern Victoria and Tasmania are in for an Autumn cold
> outbreak. The latest forecasts have hail and local thunder. Nice cold air
> pool on the latest sat pic. This will stop Melbourne's record run of 20+
> days.
> 

Don't speak too soon - max to 2 p.m. was 19.9.

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: New Photos
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 14:16:33 +1000
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Hi all

This update contains photos taken by Anthony Cornelius on TDU2k, November
December and January storms in SE QLD and a large selection of video stills
of damage caused by the 1985 Brisbane superstorm (also a handfull of the
storm in motion).  This storm produced cricket ball sized hail and wind
gusts of over 180km/h which of course produced widespread horrific damage.

http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/new.shtml



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 23:19:47 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane TS
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Hi All:

I have not been able to follow this Brisbane storm too closely.  But from
what little I have read, I would guess this storm was of a tropical nature,
at least from precipitation typing.  In other words, rainfall was
torrential but drop size diameters were on the small side.  Thus, radar
reflectivities were not extraordinary, but rather modest, instead.  So, in
order to obtain proper rainfall accumulations and rainfall rates from the
radar, a different Z-R relationship would have to have been used.  Thus,
the "rainfall rates" read as radar levels were considerably in error and
considerable underestimates.

Just guessing.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


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Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 15:26:50 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re Winter Approaching
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Hail the size of bricks ?
Im surprised you didnt see Jimmy in your dream somewhere !

Matt Smith



Lindsay Pearce wrote:

> G'day Andrew Miskelly and all,
>
> Oh yes, sounds good to me. Love those sub 540 thickness lines.
>
> Actually, and I feel a tad silly, I had this weird dream the other day about
> sub 540 thickness charts being broadcast on the news somehow and then I
> drove to Oberon in this dream and it hailed the size of bricks. Weird dream
> but hey, at least I didn't have to pay for any petrol on that chase. :) Pity
> I can't scan the images though...
>
> As the summer storm hounds say, "Bring it oooooon!" or my one, "Snow? Sleet?
> Snow! Yessssssssssssss!"
>
> Lindsay Pearce
> Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> Email: writer at lisp.com.au
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 20:56:22 -0800 (PST)
From: Nick Sykes <njsykes at yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Early Season Cold Outbreak
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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I was just thinking that while in the carpark Blair,
feels like she could have made 20. It just doesn't
want to do it.

Best of the cold air going over Tassie, could see a
little over Vic, but doesn't look that spectacular now
(please let this bring hail storms)

Nick



__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Auctions - Buy the things you want at great prices.
http://auctions.yahoo.com/
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From: "Dean Sgarbossa" <deansgar at alphalink.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Satellite Image (3:37PM) Irregularity
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 16:37:21 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.600" name=GENERATOR>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello all on the list,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Please excuse my absence from 
the list for my computer decided to crash on me and I have only just got it back 
online. The crash resulted in one to two years worth of research to be lost. 
Yes, I did back my files up but the files were so heavily corrupted that I 
couldn't open them. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Anyway, I noticed on the 3:37PM 
IR at the Weather Company's site (<A 
href="http://www.theweather.com.au">www.theweather.com.au</A>) an unusual bright 
semi-circular line almost highlighting the Tropic of Capricorn. For obvious 
reasons this must not be a natural occuring weather phenomena, but is their any 
suggestions of what this might be? Was it something on the lense of the 
satellite's camera or reflection from the earth's contrast? </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Good to be back,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Dean</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rainfall extremes
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 16:46:42 +1100 (EST)
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> 	Nambour		       129.2mm/ 47mins		> 100 years
> 			       153.2mm/ 60mins		> 100 years
> 			       [91mm/47mins & 102mm/60mins = 100 year]
> 
> 	Brisbane		48.6mm/ 24mins		13-14 years
> 				83.8mm/ 60mins		20-21 years
> 			       100.2mm/ 90mins		25-26 years
> 
> 	Given the figures for Logan City, which had 260mm/18hrs, and
> using a
> similar temporal pattern as that for Brisbane etc, would produce some
> values around 50% above a 1-in-100 year event. Nothing short of an
> exceptional event.
> 

An important point here (and one which is far too subtle to get 
across in the media) is that a 1-in-100 year event at a single point
does not equate to a 1-in-100 year event across the metropolitan area
as a whole. (In analysis of extreme precipitation events, the values
with an average recurrence interval (ARI) of 2, 5, 10,..., 100 years
are calculated for areas of different sizes - and the 100-year ARI
precipitation for a 10 sq km area will be much higher than that    
averaged over a 1000 sq km area in the same location). 

A good example of this was the storm that caused the famous Elizabeth
Street flash flood in Melbourne in 1972 - this was calculated to have
an ARI of (I think) 500 years, but only covered the CBD and a couple 
of inner suburbs; an event of such magnitude might be expected to
occur somewhere in metropolitan Melbourne once every 20 years or so
(and indeed the St. Kilda (1989) and Laverton (1975) storms were
comparable).

Blair
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From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 17:42:25 +1030
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<x-flowed>
Could someone please tell me what the difference in FORMATION of white and 
black frost is?  I stress the word formation!



_________________________________________________________________________
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Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 18:43:35 +1100
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Re: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
	wz list <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au
REPLY-TO: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>

The basic difference is that white frost is formed by sublimation whereas
black frost is formed by freezing of liquid water (usually by contact with a
sub-zero surface).

The sublimation produces ice crystal that appear white due to their complex
structure.

Freezing liquid water produces a clear ice that is commonly called black ice
because it is an invisible layer on black sealed roads.

Mark
-- 
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
http://www.theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________


> From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
> Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 17:42:25 +1030
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
> 
> Could someone please tell me what the difference in FORMATION of white and
> black frost is?  I stress the word formation!
> 
> 
> 
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> 
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 


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User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.01 (1630)
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 18:45:12 +1100
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Re: aus-wx: Satellite Image (3:37PM) Irregularity
From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
CC: wz list <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au
REPLY-TO: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>

<x-html>
<HTML>
<HEAD>
<TITLE>Re: aus-wx: Satellite Image (3:37PM) Irregularity</TITLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY>
<BLOCKQUOTE>Dean<BR>
<BR>
No idea what the band on the image is. It came through on the raw image we received from the Bureau. We are trying to get more information. We assume it was a malfunction of the satellite. It does not appear on the next image.<BR>
Regards, Mark<BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE>-- <BR>
_____________________________________________________<BR>
Mark Hardy.<BR>
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.<BR>
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060<BR>
Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.<BR>
Mobile 0414 642 739<BR>
http://www.theweather.com.au<BR>
_____________________________________________________<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE><B>From: </B>&quot;Dean Sgarbossa&quot; &lt;deansgar at alphalink.com.au&gt;<BR>
<B>Reply-To: </B>aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
<B>Date: </B>Mon, 12 Mar 2001 16:37:21 +1100<BR>
<B>To: </B>&lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;<BR>
<B>Subject: </B>aus-wx: Satellite Image (3:37PM) Irregularity<BR>
<BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE><FONT SIZE="2"><FONT FACE="Arial">Hello all on the list,<BR>
 &nbsp;&nbsp;Please excuse my absence from the list for my computer decided to crash on me and I have only just got it back online. The crash resulted in one to two years worth of research to be lost. Yes, I did back my files up but the files were so heavily corrupted that I couldn't open them. <BR>
 &nbsp;&nbsp;Anyway, I noticed on the 3:37PM IR at the Weather Company's site (www.theweather.com.au &lt;http://www.theweather.com.au&gt; ) an unusual bright semi-circular line almost highlighting the Tropic of Capricorn. For obvious reasons this must not be a natural occuring weather phenomena, but is their any suggestions of what this might be? Was it something on the lense of the satellite's camera or reflection from the earth's contrast? <BR>
</FONT></FONT> <BR>
<FONT SIZE="2"><FONT FACE="Arial">Good to be back,<BR>
Dean<BR>
</FONT></FONT><BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
</BODY>
</HTML>

</x-html>

User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.01 (1630)
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 18:46:33 +1100
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Re: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
	wz list <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au
REPLY-TO: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>

The basic difference is that white frost is formed by sublimation whereas
black frost is formed by freezing of liquid water (usually by contact with a
sub-zero surface).

The sublimation produces ice crystal that appear white due to their complex
structure.

Freezing liquid water produces a clear ice that is commonly called black ice
because it is an invisible layer on black sealed roads.

I should have also added that sublimation is the formation of ice directly
from water vapour or ice crystals (ie. bypassing the liquid phase)

Mark
-- 
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
http://www.theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________


> From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
> Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 17:42:25 +1030
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
> 
> Could someone please tell me what the difference in FORMATION of white and
> black frost is?  I stress the word formation!
> 
> 
> 
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> 
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 


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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane event and tides
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 18:15:43 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Does anyone know what the tides were doing when the 
big flood of Friday affected the Stones Corner area ? Some of these areas have 
tidal creeks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Was this partially influential in the disaster 
?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Reply-To: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
	"Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Southerly Buster - perfect cresent on radar
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 20:21:55 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Anybody logged in tonight should have an immediate look at the broad scale
radar. The southerly coming up the coast has a perfect crescent shape of the
cloud associated with it.

I have seen similar on Victorian radars, but not in NSW.

I would have saved an image except I use Netscape and from the ASWA page I
cannot save.

Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com



--
Visit WeatherZone, the site for weather freaks
http://www.weatherzone.com.au

--
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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Southerly Buster - perfect cresent on radar
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 20:21:55 +1100
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Anybody logged in tonight should have an immediate look at the broad scale
radar. The southerly coming up the coast has a perfect crescent shape of the
cloud associated with it.

I have seen similar on Victorian radars, but not in NSW.

I would have saved an image except I use Netscape and from the ASWA page I
cannot save.

Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Stu" <phrstu at northnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane storm radar
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 21:04:42 +1100
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Some good storms around the Gunnedah area last night and this morning.

Breeza Station in the centre of the Liverpool Plains scored 116mm between
8pm and 11.30pm on Sunday night. Talking to a few in the area it sounded
pretty wild at times with a persistent light show.  Saturday evening saw a
wild storm cut a narrow path through the Spring Ridge area, plenty of trees
down and limbs off everywhere but it appeared to be very narrow, less than a
k.

At Gunnedah there were a few rumbles this morning (Monday) and 36mil and 2
hours later we had seen the gutter in the main street over flow 3 times..
All in all it was good rainfall for the weekend, 80mm in town and an area
average of about 40mm. The summer crops will benefit.

stu

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From: "Dean McWhinney" <mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Southerly Buster - perfect cresent on radar
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 20:55:54 +1100
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Mate i have it private email me and i will send it to anyone that wants it
************************************************
Dean McWhinney
Year 9 student,ameture weather watcher
and fisherman/sailor
Email:mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Thompson <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>; Aussie Weather Mailing List
<aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Sent: Monday, March 12, 2001 8:21 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Southerly Buster - perfect cresent on radar


> Anybody logged in tonight should have an immediate look at the broad scale
> radar. The southerly coming up the coast has a perfect crescent shape of
the
> cloud associated with it.
>
> I have seen similar on Victorian radars, but not in NSW.
>
> I would have saved an image except I use Netscape and from the ASWA page I
> cannot save.
>
> Michael Thompson
> http://ozthunder.com
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 21:01:55 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re Winter Approaching
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Jimmy and car smashed Matt...

I like such dreams!!!!.

Sorry  I have had a great day with people treating me with hero status etc 
etc...

Hopefully good things will come of the article. For instance a person 
responded via e-mail to join ASWA within 3 hours and another couple have 
responded today.

Cheers.

Jimmy Deguara

At 03:26 PM 12/03/01 +1100, you wrote:

>Hail the size of bricks ?
>Im surprised you didnt see Jimmy in your dream somewhere !
>
>Matt Smith
>
>
>
>Lindsay Pearce wrote:
>
> > G'day Andrew Miskelly and all,
> >
> > Oh yes, sounds good to me. Love those sub 540 thickness lines.
> >
> > Actually, and I feel a tad silly, I had this weird dream the other day 
> about
> > sub 540 thickness charts being broadcast on the news somehow and then I
> > drove to Oberon in this dream and it hailed the size of bricks. Weird dream
> > but hey, at least I didn't have to pay for any petrol on that chase. :) 
> Pity
> > I can't scan the images though...
> >
> > As the summer storm hounds say, "Bring it oooooon!" or my one, "Snow? 
> Sleet?
> > Snow! Yessssssssssssss!"
> >
> > Lindsay Pearce
> > Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> > Email: writer at lisp.com.au
> >
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
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Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 21:07:50 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, Michael Thompson <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Southerly Buster - perfect cresent on radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi Michael,

Go into the cache..


ie got to the netscape directory go to the users profile in your programs 
section of netscape and then you will see cache

in their click order by date and you will see the files in their you want..

Jimmy Deguara

At 08:21 PM 12/03/01 +1100, you wrote:
>Anybody logged in tonight should have an immediate look at the broad scale
>radar. The southerly coming up the coast has a perfect crescent shape of the
>cloud associated with it.
>
>I have seen similar on Victorian radars, but not in NSW.
>
>I would have saved an image except I use Netscape and from the ASWA page I
>cannot save.
>
>Michael Thompson
>http://ozthunder.com
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
From: "Stu" <phrstu at northnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 21:23:26 +1100
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Only time I have seen black frost was in the 94 drought. Plants died and
laying water froze but the ground had very little due so the frost wasnt
apparent. When at Moree we had something like 20 of these frosts in a row.
When the frost was visible it appeared much smaller in crystal size.

stu

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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane storm
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 11:42:56 GMT
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I've posted the report on last Friday's events in SE Qld. The full (if
small, to conserve space) radar loop is of interest. Thanks to all the
contributors to Aussie-weather that added information that helped in
the production of the report.


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://www.australianweathernews.com
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From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Warwick Storm Photos
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 22:12:28 +1000
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Hi all

Adam Cole has asked me to post these photos on his behalf - so here they
are!

http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/120301_07.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/120301_06.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/120301_05.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/120301_04.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/120301_03.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/120301_02.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/120301_01.jpg

They were taken from Warwick this afternoon - check out the lowering in 5
and 6!


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From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane TS
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 00:34:11 +1000
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Hi Les, all

> Hi All:
>
> I have not been able to follow this Brisbane storm too closely.  But from
> what little I have read, I would guess this storm was of a tropical
nature,
> at least from precipitation typing.  In other words, rainfall was
> torrential but drop size diameters were on the small side.  Thus, radar
> reflectivities were not extraordinary, but rather modest, instead.  So, in
> order to obtain proper rainfall accumulations and rainfall rates from the
> radar, a different Z-R relationship would have to have been used.  Thus,
> the "rainfall rates" read as radar levels were considerably in error and
> considerable underestimates.
>
> Just guessing.
>
> Les

You had to be here :-)

At times the rain drops were huge - just like 'melted hail' type rain.

James

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From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane TS
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 00:31:06 +1000
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Hey John, all

<heaps snipped>

> According to radar it was yellow/green at my location for much of the
> downpour which agrees with my visual estimate of rain intensity.  Seeing
as
> the average severe storm in Brisbane produces plenty of red on radar, and
> this didn't, you would have to give the radar some credibility.  Also
totals
> of 280mm over a 4 hour period suggest average rates around 70mm/hour,
which
> also tends to agree with local radar echoes, allowing for a little
> under-estimation.  Even if peak intensities were double this, I could not
> rate this rainfall rate extreme compared to 300mm/hr, which I have seen.
>
> But of course 280mm in 4 hours is an absolutely incredible amount of water
> and that will cause the kind of flash flood chaos and damage that
occurred.
> No doubt seeing this first hand leaves a vivid impression and wobbly
knees.

In regards to the 280mm in 4 hours...

I was in the same (or similar) area to where that rainfall was reported.  In
the 4 hours it wasn't just continuous heavy rain.  I can recall several
times when rain eased to light.

In my area the heavy rain started right on 2.40pm and eased at around 2.59pm
after 24mm had fallen.

It became heavy again after about 3.10pm and this intensity continued up to
about 3.50pm and I estimate the gauge had about 100mm in it (just by looking
at the gauge).

In the half hour afterwards, the rain intensity fluctuated between mod and
heavy - but not very heavy.

From about 4.10pm through to 5.20pm is when the heaviest rain fell. This was
incredibly heavy.  I'd estimate over 120mm in this period.  There were
3-4min intervals of 200mm/hour intensity rain at times.  Probably ~15mm in
my area up to 6pm, then only very light rain after that.

Even between 4.10 and 5.20pm the best radar intensities were green/pink even
though much of the time the intensity was >100mm/hour.

Yes it wasn't quite 300mm/hour as I also have seen, but pretty close to it!!
(In brief intervals)

Whatever the case, it sure did a lot of damage.  I know a lot of areas that
flood around here (and some which never have) and Friday's storms surpassed
every 'record' level that I can remember.

Could this rival the Jan 1985 storm for being the most costly Brisbane storm
disaster?  Looks like being second if anything.  Lucky there was no damaging
hail with this one!

Anyway enough from me.

Regards
James




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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "James Chambers" <jamestorm at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Next QLD ASWA Meeting - Visitors Welcome!
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 00:35:41 +1000
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Hey Ants

Of course I'll be there :-)

James



> Hi all!
>
> Just a reminder about the next QLD ASWA meeting on this Saturday the
> 17th of March.
>
> We still have lots of topics to talk about, we'll have a discussion on
> the January 17-20 thunderstorm outbreak through QLD and NE NSW!  Also,
> there's plenty more storm footage to go through during the January chase
> season.  Not to mention the recent massive flash flood event for last
> Friday, the 9th of March!  We'll have another discussion on this event,
> and try and look at some of the causes and what exactly happened.  Not
> to mention have a look at some of the footage and damage from this
> phenomenal event!
>
> Plenty to talk about - hope to see as many people as possible there!  If
> you can come, it'd be appreciated if you can send me a quick email just
> to let me know for numbers.
>
> Please bring $4 for pizza and drinks!
>
> The details:
>
> Date: Saturday, 17th of March
> Time: 9:45am for a 10am start - if you come late, phone 0417 759 304 and
> we will send some one down to let you through the security.
> Venue: Spherion Technology, Level 4, 200 Creek St, Brisbane (Right
> next to the Novotel) NB: The venue name has changed, however the venue
> is still in exactly the same place.
> What to bring?  Yourself, storm footage/photos you want to share, any
> visitors, $4 for pizza and drinks.
>
> Thanks!
>
> Look forward to seeing you there!!!
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: dep.fwn.rug.nl: Host facbur24.fwn.rug.nl [129.125.22.66] claimed to be fwn.rug.nl
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 13:13:26 +0100
From: "T.A.Jurriens" <T.A.Jurriens at fwn.rug.nl>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: ice chunk Harbord March 6 2001
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Last week (March 6, 2001) a ice chunk felt down, through the roof, in
Harbord (NSW). Busy with similar cases last year in the Netherlands i
would be interested in more details. Can somebody assist?

Also have a look at www.rug.nl/ijsklompen concerning the Dutch
situation.

Kind regards

Theo Jurriens


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.01 (1630)
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 18:43:35 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>, wz list <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

The basic difference is that white frost is formed by sublimation whereas
black frost is formed by freezing of liquid water (usually by contact with a
sub-zero surface).

The sublimation produces ice crystal that appear white due to their complex
structure.

Freezing liquid water produces a clear ice that is commonly called black ice
because it is an invisible layer on black sealed roads.

Mark
-- 
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
http://www.theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________


> From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
> Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 17:42:25 +1030
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
> 
> Could someone please tell me what the difference in FORMATION of white and
> black frost is?  I stress the word formation!
> 
> 
> 
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> 
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.01 (1630)
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 18:46:33 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>, wz list <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

The basic difference is that white frost is formed by sublimation whereas
black frost is formed by freezing of liquid water (usually by contact with a
sub-zero surface).

The sublimation produces ice crystal that appear white due to their complex
structure.

Freezing liquid water produces a clear ice that is commonly called black ice
because it is an invisible layer on black sealed roads.

I should have also added that sublimation is the formation of ice directly
from water vapour or ice crystals (ie. bypassing the liquid phase)

Mark
-- 
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
http://www.theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________


> From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
> Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 17:42:25 +1030
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
> 
> Could someone please tell me what the difference in FORMATION of white and
> black frost is?  I stress the word formation!
> 
> 
> 
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> 
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.01 (1630)
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 18:45:12 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Satellite Image (3:37PM) Irregularity
From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
CC: wz list <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<HTML>
<HEAD>
<TITLE>Re: aus-wx: Satellite Image (3:37PM) Irregularity</TITLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY>
<BLOCKQUOTE>Dean<BR>
<BR>
No idea what the band on the image is. It came through on the raw image we received from the Bureau. We are trying to get more information. We assume it was a malfunction of the satellite. It does not appear on the next image.<BR>
Regards, Mark<BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE>-- <BR>
_____________________________________________________<BR>
Mark Hardy.<BR>
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.<BR>
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060<BR>
Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.<BR>
Mobile 0414 642 739<BR>
http://www.theweather.com.au<BR>
_____________________________________________________<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE><B>From: </B>&quot;Dean Sgarbossa&quot; &lt;deansgar at alphalink.com.au&gt;<BR>
<B>Reply-To: </B>aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
<B>Date: </B>Mon, 12 Mar 2001 16:37:21 +1100<BR>
<B>To: </B>&lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;<BR>
<B>Subject: </B>aus-wx: Satellite Image (3:37PM) Irregularity<BR>
<BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE><FONT SIZE="2"><FONT FACE="Arial">Hello all on the list,<BR>
 &nbsp;&nbsp;Please excuse my absence from the list for my computer decided to crash on me and I have only just got it back online. The crash resulted in one to two years worth of research to be lost. Yes, I did back my files up but the files were so heavily corrupted that I couldn't open them. <BR>
 &nbsp;&nbsp;Anyway, I noticed on the 3:37PM IR at the Weather Company's site (www.theweather.com.au &lt;http://www.theweather.com.au&gt; ) an unusual bright semi-circular line almost highlighting the Tropic of Capricorn. For obvious reasons this must not be a natural occuring weather phenomena, but is their any suggestions of what this might be? Was it something on the lense of the satellite's camera or reflection from the earth's contrast? <BR>
</FONT></FONT> <BR>
<FONT SIZE="2"><FONT FACE="Arial">Good to be back,<BR>
Dean<BR>
</FONT></FONT><BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
</BODY>
</HTML>


</x-html>
User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.01 (1630)
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 16:54:24 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Satellite Image (3:37PM) Irregularity
From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<HTML>
<HEAD>
<TITLE>Re: aus-wx: Satellite Image (3:37PM) Irregularity</TITLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY>
<BLOCKQUOTE>Dean<BR>
<BR>
No idea what the band on the image is. It came through on the raw image we received from the Bureau. We are trying to get more information. We assume it was a malfunction of the satellite. It does not appear on the next image.<BR>
Regards, Mark<BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE>-- <BR>
_____________________________________________________<BR>
Mark Hardy.<BR>
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.<BR>
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060<BR>
Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.<BR>
Mobile 0414 642 739<BR>
http://www.theweather.com.au<BR>
_____________________________________________________<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE><B>From: </B>&quot;Dean Sgarbossa&quot; &lt;deansgar at alphalink.com.au&gt;<BR>
<B>Reply-To: </B>aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
<B>Date: </B>Mon, 12 Mar 2001 16:37:21 +1100<BR>
<B>To: </B>&lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;<BR>
<B>Subject: </B>aus-wx: Satellite Image (3:37PM) Irregularity<BR>
<BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE><FONT SIZE="2"><FONT FACE="Arial">Hello all on the list,<BR>
 &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Please excuse my absence from the list for my computer decided to crash on me and I have only just got it back online. The crash resulted in one to two years worth of research to be lost. Yes, I did back my files up but the files were so heavily corrupted that I couldn't open them. <BR>
 &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Anyway, I noticed on the 3:37PM IR at the Weather Company's site (www.theweather.com.au &lt;http://www.theweather.com.au&gt; ) an unusual bright semi-circular line almost highlighting the Tropic of Capricorn. For obvious reasons this must not be a natural occuring weather phenomena, but is their any suggestions of what this might be? Was it something on the lense of the satellite's camera or reflection from the earth's contrast? <BR>
</FONT></FONT> <BR>
<FONT SIZE="2"><FONT FACE="Arial">Good to be back,<BR>
Dean<BR>
</FONT></FONT><BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
</BODY>
</HTML>


</x-html>
X-Originating-IP: [203.54.87.245]
From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 06:54:55 +1030
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 12 Mar 2001 20:24:56.0092 (UTC) FILETIME=[809DE5C0:01C0AB32]
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<x-flowed>
Thanks for the reply Mark, now I know the difference in FORMATION.  I can't 
believe I couldn't find it anywhere else on the net or in books etc.





_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 08:03:22 +1100
From: David Carroll <davidkc at nia.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.75 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Chilly Morning/ Bathurst
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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8am 13/3. 

Just checked WM-918 Weather Station, 3.8 degress at 7am this morning. 
Its now only 6.1 deg.  What a change this is from the extreme heat we
had about a month ago.  

Dave 
Bathurst.
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 05:45:30 -0800
From: Lindsay Pearce <writer at lisp.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Re Winter Approaching
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

Lovely Autumn morning here. My screen showed 6.7C as a mimimum although at around
8am, it is now 8C. We had those excellent cool, dry, west winds last night. We just
couldn't resist going for a long evening walk. Didn't see any brick sized hail (or
Jimmy) but it was great to feel the wind rushing down Govetts Leap road again.

Just out of curiosity, what are some of the odometer readings of the regular storm
chasers out there? Jimmy must be around 200,000 k's by now.


Cheers,

Lindsay P.

Jimmy Deguara wrote:

> Jimmy and car smashed Matt...
>
> I like such dreams!!!!.
>
> Sorry  I have had a great day with people treating me with hero status etc
> etc...
>
> Hopefully good things will come of the article. For instance a person
> responded via e-mail to join ASWA within 3 hours and another couple have
> responded today.
>
> Cheers.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 03:26 PM 12/03/01 +1100, you wrote:
>
> >Hail the size of bricks ?
> >Im surprised you didnt see Jimmy in your dream somewhere !
> >
> >Matt Smith
> >
> >
> >
> >

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 07:10:12 +1000
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Yes likewise Mark,

I have always wondered what a "Black frost" was and supposed that the answer
was along these lines.  It is 'well known' that a black frost is far more
damaging to plant life than a white frost.

John.
>snip

Subject: Re: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost


Thanks for the reply Mark, now I know the difference in FORMATION.  I can't
believe I couldn't find it anywhere else on the net or in books etc.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane TS
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 08:22:22 +1000
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>You had to be here :-)
>At times the rain drops were huge - just like 'melted hail' type rain.

I second that - at north boondall it was very huge rain drops. About the
size of golf balls of water hitting the windscreen.

Also I would like to ask a question about the Bald Hills Mast. During that
storm around about 5:30pm I was driving on the Bruce Highway, deagon
deviation and then gateway motorway. I noticed that the Bald Hills radio
mast was right in a great position for my to see it if I got struck by
lightning. How often does it get struck, did it get struck during that
storm, and was I just unlucky not to see it get struck? Anyone got photos of
it being struck by lightning?

David

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re Winter Approaching
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 09:35:25 +1100
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Lindsay,

I recorded 9.2C this morning in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne at about
7am.

My car's up to 187,000km - 6 years old - did 68,000 between November 1, 1999
& yesterday (15 months - average 4,500 per month).


Jane
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------

Just out of curiosity, what are some of the odometer readings of the regular
storm
chasers out there? Jimmy must be around 200,000 k's by now.


Cheers,

Lindsay P.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Early Season Cold Outbreak
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 10:50:10 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> I was just thinking that while in the carpark Blair,
> feels like she could have made 20. It just doesn't
> want to do it.
> 
> 
20.0 it was. If it gets past 20 today the run should continue for
several more days. The run of days over 70 F is definitely over,
though (although at 71 days compared with the previous record
of 43, that record has been comprehensively demolished).

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: 1 in 100 years.
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 11:36:05 +1100
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>Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 10:46:19 +1000
>From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: 1 in 100 year events
>
>Basically it means there's a 1% chance of happening in any given year,
>hence it should statistically occur once everyone 100 years.  But of
>course, this is not always the case.

"Apparently" the strict definition of a 1 in 100 year event is an event
which has an average return period of 100 years, which (accoording to my
references) translates into a probability of observing the event of 1% in a
given year. I suspect, however, that this interpretation is VERY slightly
incorrect, as a 1 in 100 year event can occur more than once in a given
year.

An interesting aside on this is that a 1% chance of occurrence in a given
year gives you a 37% chance of never observing an event in a 100 year
period, and a 63% chance of observing the event at least once. The
probability of seeing an event exactly once in 100 years is a surprisingly
low 36%.

Translating into life times... if you live to 100, you have a better than
1/3 chance of not seeing a 1 in 100 year event.  On the flip side, a median
time between 1 in 100 year events is 70 years, so if you live this long you
have a 50% chance of seeing a 1 in 100 year event...

Of course these values are only valid for one observing site. Once you scan
for records over an area like a city you GREATLY increase the likelihood of
observing records/near records.

Cheers,

David.


                                                
Dr David Jones                                               
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425  
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Adam Mayo" <oyam at bigpond.com>
To: "Australian Severe Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx:  Re Winter Approaching,
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 12:33:34 +1100
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Hi Lindsay,

Our car made it to 255,000 k's and we just got our selves another Subaru.
An Outback this time.

Now the season is changing we will be back visiting Katoomba all the time.

Judy Mayo.



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Paul Miskelly <paul.miskelly at ansto.gov.au>
Organization: Ansto
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Winter Approaches
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 14:47:16 +1100
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On Mon, 12 Mar 2001, you wrote:
> Hi all,
> 
> I have noticed in the last few days that the models are just starting to
> reveal a few winter trends creeping back. Lower thicknesses are slowly
> begining to buldge north and the ridge in the southern ocean looks about
> ready to begin its transition northward.
> 
> The front expected to pass through the SE tomorrow has a toungue of 535
> thickness behind it that AVN forecasts to reach Bass Strait - snowfalls
> are progged for the higher parts of Tas.
> 
> This should fire Lindsay P and the rest of us winter suckers up a bit :)
> 
> Andrew.
 
Hi all, and g'day Andrew
I think this is my first active contribution to the group.
The o'night minimum at Cooma was actually 0.5, rather than the forecast 4 deg.
Taralga's was 2, and at home here in the frost hollow about 1km from the Taralga
PO station, the minimum was 1.0 just before sunrise. I mention Cooma because we
tend to track the Cooma minima fairly reliably at our place.

We've noticed on other occasions that where the cold air outbreak follows a
change, the BOM gets the forecast minima wrong. Their predictions are generally
several degrees too high, which is of little use to a grape growers such as
myself, who need to make certain preparations ahead of frost events. Not that
it happened this time, but the difference between a predicted +2.0 as against an
actual -0.5 for example, has a very different outcome for a fruit grower.
Frosts do a lot of damage to many crops.
I would be interested to hear comments from any Bureau staff as to why the
models seem to err in this fashion.

Sorry folks, but could you cold-weather freaks hang off for just a few more
weeks until we get the fruit in?

Oh, and might I suggest that all other readers check that their electronic
signatures include their LOCATION, and I include the several o/s contributors
here. It is so frustrating to read of some interesting weather event and the
writer has failed to tell us the all-important "where".

Paul Miskelly
Taralga, NSW

"Farmer and artist, drudge and dreamer,
hedonist and masochist, accountant and alchemist
- the wine-grower is all these things, and has been since the Flood".
Hugh Johnson

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Winter Approaches
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 16:35:38 +1100 (EST)
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>  
> Hi all, and g'day Andrew
> I think this is my first active contribution to the group.
> The o'night minimum at Cooma was actually 0.5, rather than the forecast 4 deg.
> Taralga's was 2, and at home here in the frost hollow about 1km from the Taralga
> PO station, the minimum was 1.0 just before sunrise. I mention Cooma because we
> tend to track the Cooma minima fairly reliably at our place.
> 
> We've noticed on other occasions that where the cold air outbreak follows a
> change, the BOM gets the forecast minima wrong. Their predictions are generally
> several degrees too high, which is of little use to a grape growers such as
> myself, who need to make certain preparations ahead of frost events. Not that
> it happened this time, but the difference between a predicted +2.0 as against an
> actual -0.5 for example, has a very different outcome for a fruit grower.
> Frosts do a lot of damage to many crops.
> I would be interested to hear comments from any Bureau staff as to why the
> models seem to err in this fashion.

Not quite answering your question, but minimum temperatures are very
sensitive to local topography, so in a region like Taralga it's not
unusual to see minimum temperature differences of several degrees 
within a distance of a few kilometres. (This shows up quite nicely
in the difference between Goulburn and Goulburn Airport). Any local
forecast is going to be tuned to the local observation site, so
if the site is not terribly representative of the wider region, the
forecast minima won't be either.

I also don't think the first day of early-season cold outbreaks gets
handled terribly well. The Canberra forecasting notes that go on the
internal web suggest that they're often taking a punt on how quickly
the cloud clears and come up with a number that is a compromise. NT
issue a 'frost risk' assessment for Alice Springs in winter which
would be a useful product for agriculture, I imagine.

Blair

> Sorry folks, but could you cold-weather freaks hang off for just a few more
> weeks until we get the fruit in?
> 
> Oh, and might I suggest that all other readers check that their electronic
> signatures include their LOCATION, and I include the several o/s contributors
> here. It is so frustrating to read of some interesting weather event and the
> writer has failed to tell us the all-important "where".
> 
> Paul Miskelly
> Taralga, NSW
> 
> "Farmer and artist, drudge and dreamer,
> hedonist and masochist, accountant and alchemist
> - the wine-grower is all these things, and has been since the Flood".
> Hugh Johnson
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 04:57:38 +1100
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I might have missed something here but I always believed that black
frost occurred when very low tempertaures caused the destruction of
vegetation without the formation of ice crystals - the vegetation cells
ruptured and they go blackish. Usually occurs with very low dew points
Blcak ice is the invisible stuff that forms on roads - something quite
different.
Cheers,
Don White
b

John Woodbridge wrote:
> 
> Yes likewise Mark,
> 
> I have always wondered what a "Black frost" was and supposed that the answer
> was along these lines.  It is 'well known' that a black frost is far more
> damaging to plant life than a white frost.
> 
> John.
> >snip
> 
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
> 
> Thanks for the reply Mark, now I know the difference in FORMATION.  I can't
> believe I couldn't find it anywhere else on the net or in books etc.
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: General/winter
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 18:40:15 +1100
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Hi all,

Thanks for those odometer readouts Jane, Judy, and others, I was just
curious.

Jimmy, your article in the SMH continues to have impact. I met a new lady at
tennis this morning who used to draw up the MSLP charts back in the
eighties, she saw the SMH article and wondered about the site address. She
loves the weather (more the romantic aspects of it) and is off to check out
the ASWA site, I told here there wasn't any poetry there, still, she's keen.

Also had a chat to a guy who has lived in The Megalong Valley for 60 years,
he reckons he's only seen two snowfalls there, one in '65 and one in '84, I
think. Reckons he was stuck in the valley for a while during the '65 one.
Apparently Megalong is the same altitude as Woodford, or thereabouts, can't
think what that actually is OTTOMH.

Hey sorry Paul Miskelly re not signing the whereabouts on my last email, I
was using my ancient win 3.1 system, sigs don't work on it. And, having
spent plenty of time in Mildura (I lived there), in the 80's, i have
sympathy for the blockies. Although, we tended to have our grapes in by mid
march down there.

Adios.

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 08:08:52 GMT
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Don's right. Also, what some call "white frost" is usually called
"hoar frost". From the ever-useful UKMO Glossary:

BLACK FROST: A condition in which the temperature of the ground cools
to a sub-freezing temperature but does not reach the value so low as
the frost-point of the adjacent air. There is then no deposit of hoar
frost on the ground or on terrestrial objects which thus remain black
in appearance. The phenomenon is associated with relatively dry air.

BLACK ICE: A popular alternative for GLAZED FROST, often used with
reference to its occurrence on road surfaces. A thin sheet of ice,
relatively dark in appearance, may be formed when light rain or
drizzle falls on a road surface which is at a temperature below 0C. It
may also be formed on such a surface when supercooled fog droplets are
intercepted by, and fall from, bridges or trees.

HOAR FROST: Thin ice crystals in the form of scales, needles, feathers
or fans deposited on surfaces cooled by radiation. The deposit is
frequently composed in part of drops of dew frozen after deposition
and in part of ice formed directly from water vapour at a temperature
below 0C. The presence of fog, in so far as it checks the radiational
cooling of surfaces, tends to prevent the formation of hoar frost.

Laurier


On Wed, 14 Mar 2001 04:57:38 +1100, Don White
<donwhite at ozemail.com.au> wrote:

>I might have missed something here but I always believed that black
>frost occurred when very low tempertaures caused the destruction of
>vegetation without the formation of ice crystals - the vegetation cells
>ruptured and they go blackish. Usually occurs with very low dew points
>Blcak ice is the invisible stuff that forms on roads - something quite
>different.
>Cheers,
>Don White
>b
>
>John Woodbridge wrote:
>> 
>> Yes likewise Mark,
>> 
>> I have always wondered what a "Black frost" was and supposed that the answer
>> was along these lines.  It is 'well known' that a black frost is far more
>> damaging to plant life than a white frost.
>> 
>> John.
>> >snip
>> 
>> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
>> 
>> Thanks for the reply Mark, now I know the difference in FORMATION.  I can't
>> believe I couldn't find it anywhere else on the net or in books etc.
>> 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Nathan Thompson" <naththo at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Very cold morning up here.
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 19:16:58 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3500" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This morning was very cold for March up here. I got 
it down to 8.3C in Golden Grove while Adelaide got down to 12.5C. Hrm I believe 
there is possible early start to cool season coming up. Hope not. I don't like 
early start of cool season though. I would rather need rain instead. :) We were 
having such a really hot and dry summer. There is interesting weather coming up 
for us for Friday hopefully. Will see how it going.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>From Nathan.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: Paul Miskelly <paul.miskelly at ansto.gov.au>
Organization: Ansto
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 19:47:39 +1100
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Don
You are quite correct and for S G's benefit, and to confirm your comments,
one site address I found with the google engine is:

www.ces.ncsu.edu/depts/hort/hil/pdf/hil-705.pdf

and the fact that no ice forms is irrelevant to the damage to vegetation.

For SG: please forget the old farmers' tale about watering the ice off before
the sun comes up. Many plants are susceptible to prolonged exposure (of the
order of a few hours) to temperatures as little below zero as -1.0. It matters
not whether ice forms - the tissue dies and quickly turns black during the
course of the usually fine, warm, sunny morning which follows.

The farmers/gardners tale arises quite reasonably from the fact that during a
touchdown frost, the plant tissue temperature might reach damaging levels just
in the last hour or so before sunrise. Observing the ice, the grower turns the
hose on the plant, melting the ice, but, more importantly, raising the
plant tissue temperature back up above damaging levels.
In a more severe frost, where the tissue temperature has been at damaging levels
for more than a few hours, no amount water sprayed on just before sunrise will
help - the tissue is already dead.
Of course, if the frost is a black one, no ice is observed, so no hose is
turned on, so one wonders what the ... happened. The only solution is to
monitor air temperature at the plant level through the course of the night.
One becomes an expert in the use of frost alarms and suchlike to monitor air
temperatures.
cheers
Paul Miskelly
Taralga, NSW

On Wed, 14 Mar 2001, you wrote:
> I might have missed something here but I always believed that black
 > frost occurred when very low tempertaures caused the destruction of
 > vegetation without the formation of ice crystals - the vegetation cells
 > ruptured and they go blackish. Usually occurs with very low dew points
 > Blcak ice is the invisible stuff that forms on roads - something quite
 > different.
 > Cheers,
 > Don White
 > 
>  > John Woodbridge wrote:
> > 
> > Yes likewise Mark,
> > 
> > I have always wondered what a "Black frost" was and supposed that the answer
> > was along these lines.  It is 'well known' that a black frost is far more
> > damaging to plant life than a white frost.
> > 
> > John.
> > >snip
> > 
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost
> > 
> > Thanks for the reply Mark, now I know the difference in FORMATION.  I can't
> > believe I couldn't find it anywhere else on the net or in books etc.
> > 

"
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 20:40:48 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: NSW AMOS weatherwatch meeting
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
AUSTRALIAN METEOROLOGICAL & OCEANOGRAPHIC SOCIETY,

A.M.O.S.  SYDNEY CENTRE   -   WEATHERWATCH GROUP

NEWSLETTER NUMBER 01-03   -    MARCH  2001

The Next Meeting of the AMOS Weatherwatch Group will be on
Wednesday 28th March 2001 at 7:30pm (19:30) at
Macquarie University, Building E5A, Room 143 (E5A-143).
Expensive Parking is available in University Car-Parks see notes below.

Theme:- The Floods in New South Wales and Queensland 2000 &1

Mr. Neil Moody our contact at the Bureau will present rainfall and
hydrological data and maps of the areas flooded during 2001.

Dr. Alan Williams will present data and maps on the rainfall and 
temperature climate of Australia for the year 2000, which was the
second wettest on record. Alan will also report on the recent AMOS 
Conference in Hobart. Mr. Roger Nurse will co-ordinate the meeting.

This meeting will be an opportunity to present records, photographs, maps, 
notes, video, and scrap-books describing the rain and floods.
(Video of floods and storms are welcome, but be brief and relevant.)

Storm Spotters are welcome to present reports on any recent storms. Bring 
photos, brief videos, and data from any recent storm sightings.
Jimmy Deguara will answer questions about ASWA and their outings.

Visitors are very welcome. Discussion will follow the presentation, and 
light refreshments will be available during the meeting.
                                                                                       PTO  
PTO >>>




At this meeting of Weatherwatch be careful about your
parking, fees have changed to be $1.00 for the first hour, then three more 
dollars for two, three or four hours, and a MAXIMUM OF $5.00 If you want to 
stay until midnight. Sorry folks, it will cost you $4.00.
You can run outside and pay a dollar every hour if you wish.

Enquiries

Alan Williams   (02)9488.9975   Paul Graham     (02)9888.2527
Jimmy Deguara   (02)9627.1943   Roger Nurse     (02)9449.1473

Also Neil Moody (02)9296.1555   Bureau of Meteorology Contact
Dr. Milton Speer        (02)9296.1618   AMOS Sydney Centre Chair & BoM.

Future dates of the AMOS Weatherwatch Meetings for 2001 will be 
:-      Wednesday 30th May 2001
         Wednesday 25th July   "
         Wednesday 26th September
         Wednesday 28th November (note this may be combined with 
an                                              AMOS function)

Recent Meetings. At the last Weatherwatch Meeting on 31st January we heard 
an excellent talk by Paul Graham on the meteorology of the storm of 21st 
January 1991. Alan Williams discussed the damage and the rehabilitation, 
Roger Nurse presented a report from Macquarie Uni.
ASWA held their meeting at The Weather Channel on 10th February.
AMOS held the scientific meeting at the University of New South Wales on 
28th February where Elly Spark and Julie Evans spoke on the planning and 
weather forecasting for the Olympic and Para-Olympic Games.

Recent Weather
Floods moving towards Lake Eyre and the lower Darling. Prolonged Monsoon 
over Northern Australia. Floods in Simpson Desert.
Severe storm in Sydney on Wed. 28th February 2001.
Severe Storms at Yamba and Brisbane. Heavy Rain at Dorrigo, Lismore.
Floods along New South Wales North Coast, and Northern Rivers.
Cane Toads invade Northern Territory (maybe Kakadu National Park).
Heavy Snow in Northern Hemisphere. Bitter Cold in Russia and Siberia.

Wishing all our members and friends a safe, interesting Autumn season.

Regards           Roger T. Nurse, News Editor       7th March 2001

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.26.98.4]
From: "Simon" <borgprocrast at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Clouds!!!!!
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 22:08:05 +1100
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I couldn't believe it. This morning on my way into work, I saw a giant Anvil
over the Dandenongs, and this evening, a shelf cloud covered Tyabb and
Hastings!

Today rocked!

Simon (SE Victoria)

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 20:59:10 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Spectacular Guster & Lightning Show Yesterday!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,

Well - what a day yesterday was!  Absolutely fantastic!

Here is a pan of a guster I saw after uni near Pittsworth (SW of
Toowoomba):

http://www.bsch.au.com/storm_chasing/120301/Image6.jpg

I have also done a chase report at:

http://www.bsch.au.com/storm_chasing/12_03_01ac.shtml

It was finished by a 2hr lightning show, with a prolonged period of 1-2
flashes a second!

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: RE: Bald Hills Radio Tower
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 22:05:02 +1000
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Hello David

> Also I would like to ask a question about the Bald Hills Mast. During that
> storm around about 5:30pm I was driving on the Bruce Highway, deagon
> deviation and then gateway motorway. I noticed that the Bald Hills radio
> mast was right in a great position for my to see it if I got struck by
> lightning. How often does it get struck, did it get struck during that
> storm, and was I just unlucky not to see it get struck? Anyone
> got photos of
> it being struck by lightning?
>

For those outside Brisbane, the radio tower David referrers to is ABC 612
4QR AM.  It stands 198 metres tall.  It has a distinctive capacitor "hat".
The suburb name "Bald Hills" is a bit of a misnomer.  Unless you mean the
"Bald Ant's Hills".  The ground is flat and only a few metres above the
tidal swamps to the north.  (This is good.  Flat, swampy ground makes for a
good ground plain.)

I live about 750 metres from the tower.  It has been my goal to take a
picture of lightning striking the tower.  Alas, I have yet to succeed.  A
few reasons.

A) I live too close; so the required camera angle means that the camera has
to be outdoor in the storm as well.
B) The area does seem to be lightning prone.  When we get a lot of close
lightning my knees go to jelly and I end up hiding under the bed.
C) I am just too slow on the shutter - but I have some great pictures of the
tower :)

Yes, lightning does strike the tower, but not as often as one would think.
Lightning does seem to make a good "boom" when striking it.  If my maths is
any good the collective radius for a lightning strike for this tower is 144
metres for a 10 kA stroke to a whopping 1203 meters for a 200 kA stroke.

When I get a good picture I will post it to the list.


Regards,


Anthony Spierings



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: 1 in 100 years.
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 22:20:35 +1000
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Hello David,

I hear and agree with what you have said.

While the media must share some blame, they are aided and abetted by the
Brisbane City Councillors.  We had a heavy fall at Chermside in Jan 94 (if
memory serves) that caused flash flooding.  Shops in Chermside Shopping
Centre were flooded and Byrne Ford lost 50 odd vehicles.  As luck would have
it, I was at a public meeting with the local Councillor as few days later.
He kept saying that the rainfall was a "Q25" and "not expected to happen
again anytime soon".

While Q100 talk sounds nice in the media (and, with due respece out of the
BoM records), but all it does is put the population to sleep (i.e., it will
be a long time before it happens again).  And it give the Brisbane City
Council a cop out.  Brisbane City Council has cut back on its flood
mitigation expenditure in the last decade, as the memory of 1974 slowly
fades.  Hopefully, this will kick them into action.


Regards,

Anthony Spierings



> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of David Jones
> Sent: Tuesday, 13 March 2001 10:36 AM
> To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)
> Subject: aus-wx: 1 in 100 years.
>
>
> >
> >Basically it means there's a 1% chance of happening in any given year,
> >hence it should statistically occur once everyone 100 years.  But of
> >course, this is not always the case.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: SMH Article
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 11:56:19 -0700
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hey Jimmy,

Just curious if you ahve the URL for this artcile on the SMH site (i can't
find it) or have it posted somehwre?

Cheers, Lyle

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 06:22:10 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SMH Article
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Lyle,

Patrick Tobin (Canberra) has uploaded a scan of the article here

http://www.ozemail.com.au/~patricktobin/wx/thunder

I'm still getting positive feedback from people who are normally not at all
interested in weather...so the article has certainly got people's attention.

Enjoy!!

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


Lyle Pakula wrote:

> Hey Jimmy,
>
> Just curious if you ahve the URL for this artcile on the SMH site (i can't
> find it) or have it posted somehwre?
>
> Cheers, Lyle




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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SMH Article
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 20:03:56 -0000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
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They could have spelled tornadoes correctly!!

Nice article.

Les (UK)
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 13, 2001 7:22 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SMH Article


> Lyle,
>
> Patrick Tobin (Canberra) has uploaded a scan of the article here
>
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~patricktobin/wx/thunder
>
> I'm still getting positive feedback from people who are normally not at
all
> interested in weather...so the article has certainly got people's
attention.
>
> Enjoy!!
>
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
> Lyle Pakula wrote:
>
> > Hey Jimmy,
> >
> > Just curious if you ahve the URL for this artcile on the SMH site (i
can't
> > find it) or have it posted somehwre?
> >
> > Cheers, Lyle
>
>
>
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 11:17:17 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: January 17 Chase Report Up
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

The recent wx has motivated me to put another chase report up, January
17-18 chase report - numerous supercells in NE NSW this day, including
one that moved into SE QLD, followed by several more lines of
thunderstorms later that day, night and in the morning!

http://www.bsch.au.com/storm_chasing/17_01_01ac.shtml
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Difference between white and black frost (Off topic)
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 12:46:53 +1000
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Hi Paul,

Just a note to this, that for many tropical plants, particularly palms and
plants with tuberous roots, watering them when it is very cold (close to or
at frost point) will almost invariably cause root rot & death.  They prefer
the roots to be kept dry when it is cold.  So what works for some things
doesn't work for others.

John.
>snip ... Observing the ice, the grower turns the
hose on the plant, melting the ice, but, more importantly, raising the
plant tissue temperature back up above damaging levels.
...

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.54.89.14]
From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Approaching end of week frontal system
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 15:52:20 +1030
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 14 Mar 2001 05:22:20.0556 (UTC) FILETIME=[BE3A64C0:01C0AC46]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
The frontal system currently SW of WA is expected to cause a band of rain to 
move through both Victoria and Tasmania on Friday/early Saturday but as yet 
there is no metion of a band of rain in SA's forecast.  I find this unusual 
seeing as both NOGAPS and GASP forecast idicate a band of rain with falls of 
up to 35mm developing west of Adelaide overnight Thursday.  I am wondering 
if this has anything to do with the fact that this frontal system is 
relitively strong considering the time of the year and uncertantity exists 
or maybe it is the fact that many models have had many changes over the last 
5 or so days illustrationg a low to develop in the Bight, then just a front, 
then a rather cold airmass behing the front then a bit of a warmer one.  The 
movement of this front still seems rather uncertain but a band of rain is 
looking very possible as far west as western SA.  Whatever happens at least 
we should get a cipule of showers here in rain starved Adelaide.  I am also 
surprised this frontal system hasn't yet rated much of mention on the list.  
It would be good if someone else could comment on what they think will 
develop.

SG
Adelaide
SA
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [152.91.8.254]
From: "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Winter Approaches - off topic
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 18:06:36 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 14 Mar 2001 07:06:36.0387 (UTC) FILETIME=[4EFE7330:01C0AC55]
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<x-html>
<html>
<DIV>
<P>Paul</P>
<P>Apologies for off topic post.&nbsp; Slightly intrigued about the notion of growing grapes in such a frost prone place.&nbsp; Is it for hobby or commercial use?&nbsp; If commercial, does the quality of the rest of the environment mean that abating the frost risk is worthwhile?&nbsp; Know that grapes are grown at Madews (Lake Geogre) and Murrumbateman, and even down past Berridale, but must be a hard slog at Taralga, when you get frosts this early.</P>
<P>Michael<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: Paul Miskelly<PAUL.MISKELLY at ANSTO.GOV.AU> 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;CC: pinot4u at optusnet.com.au 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: Re: aus-wx: Winter Approaches 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2001 14:47:16 +1100 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt;Hi all, and g'day Andrew 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;I think this is my first active contribution to the group. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;The o'night minimum at Cooma was actually 0.5, rather than the forecast 4 deg. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Taralga's was 2, and at home here in the frost hollow about 1km from the Taralga 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;PO station, the minimum was 1.0 just before sunrise. I mention Cooma because we 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;tend to track the Cooma minima fairly reliably at our place. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;We've noticed on other occasions that where the cold air outbreak follows a 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;change, the BOM gets the forecast minima wrong. Their predictions are generally 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;several degrees too high, which is of little use to a grape growers such as 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;myself, who need to make certain preparations ahead of frost events. Not that 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;it happened this time, but the difference between a predicted +2.0 as against an 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;actual -0.5 for example, has a very different outcome for a fruit grower. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Frosts do a lot of damage to many crops. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;I would be interested to hear comments from any Bureau staff as to why the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;models seem to err in this fashion. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Sorry folks, but could you cold-weather freaks hang off for just a few more 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;weeks until we get the fruit in? 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; <br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>
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</x-html>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 1 in 100 years.
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 17:28:29 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

To Anthony S

What is your motivation with this one - concrete lined drainage channels
everywhere ?

You must realise that many of the flood affected dwellings and properties
are sited well below the magical 1 in 100 year flood level. If you live
there, this is what happens from time to time. No amount of money spent on
flood mitigation will stop these places from flooding.

Also you are forgetting there are other community pressures that result in
BCC "cutting back" (your evidence not mine) on flood mitigation (ie - the
push for greener/cleaner and more natural waterways etc etc...)

I don't think the amount of money spent on flood mitigation by BCC is the
problem here.

I believe it was an a pretty amazing event in its own right. I don't see too
many people disagreeing on this score.

Believe me I am no spokesman for BCC, but I think it is better to stay well
clear of the politics of attributing blame.

Simon






----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 13, 2001 11:20 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: 1 in 100 years.


>
> Hello David,
>
> I hear and agree with what you have said.
>
> While the media must share some blame, they are aided and abetted by the
> Brisbane City Councillors.  We had a heavy fall at Chermside in Jan 94 (if
> memory serves) that caused flash flooding.  Shops in Chermside Shopping
> Centre were flooded and Byrne Ford lost 50 odd vehicles.  As luck would
have
> it, I was at a public meeting with the local Councillor as few days later.
> He kept saying that the rainfall was a "Q25" and "not expected to happen
> again anytime soon".
>
> While Q100 talk sounds nice in the media (and, with due respece out of the
> BoM records), but all it does is put the population to sleep (i.e., it
will
> be a long time before it happens again).  And it give the Brisbane City
> Council a cop out.  Brisbane City Council has cut back on its flood
> mitigation expenditure in the last decade, as the memory of 1974 slowly
> fades.  Hopefully, this will kick them into action.
>
>
> Regards,
>
> Anthony Spierings
>
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of David Jones
> > Sent: Tuesday, 13 March 2001 10:36 AM
> > To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)
> > Subject: aus-wx: 1 in 100 years.
> >
> >
> > >
> > >Basically it means there's a 1% chance of happening in any given year,
> > >hence it should statistically occur once everyone 100 years.  But of
> > >course, this is not always the case.
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Stu" <phrstu at northnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Gunnedah Storms ?
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 18:49:37 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3500" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Have been watching the radar this arvo and it looks 
like Collarenebri west of Moree was hammered about 4.00pm.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>There is a good thunder head moving in to town from 
the west. I will post pics tomoro night.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>stu</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
X-Originating-IP: [203.2.32.104]
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: 9/3/01 Pics From NE NSW
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 21:04:59 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 14 Mar 2001 10:04:59.0844 (UTC) FILETIME=[3AC06040:01C0AC6E]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi!
I've just put up some photos from the 9/3/01 from wollongbar NSW just after 
the ECL/TC had passed over the night before. The following photos were taken 
between 6.30am and 7.45am. Quite a few CC's and just a couple of CG's were 
obsevered right throught the morning.

This is a pan (not the best) of the view from our roof looking from the East 
to the ocean at 6.30am. The crown of the anvil was a little more streched 
out than in this :)
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de13.JPG


This is the line of storms looking North that went all the way up the QLD 
coast!
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de09.JPG

Need a little help on what the long cloud is in this pic!! Thought it looked 
cool anyway!
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de06.JPG

After the sun rose it illuminated behind the storm cloud!
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de07.JPG

The same as above, just a wide angle shot
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de08.JPG


And a few other assortments from that morning. Nice to see after an intense 
night!!!!!
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de05.JPG
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de10.JPG
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de11.JPG
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de12.JPG

Cya!!


Dave Ellem
Storm Lover From Wollongbar,
Northern Rivers,
NE NSW

_________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.2.32.104]
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: 9/3/01 Pics From NE NSW
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 21:04:50 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 14 Mar 2001 10:04:50.0898 (UTC) FILETIME=[356B5320:01C0AC6E]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi!
I've just put up some photos from the 9/3/01 from wollongbar NSW just after 
the ECL/TC had passed over the night before. The following photos were taken 
between 6.30am and 7.45am. Quite a few CC's and just a couple of CG's were 
obsevered right throught the morning.

This is a pan (not the best) of the view from our roof looking from the East 
to the ocean at 6.30am. The crown of the anvil was a little more streched 
out than in this :)
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de13.JPG


This is the line of storms looking North that went all the way up the QLD 
coast!
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de09.JPG

Need a little help on what the long cloud is in this pic!! Thought it looked 
cool anyway!
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de06.JPG

After the sun rose it illuminated behind the storm cloud!
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de07.JPG

The same as above, just a wide angle shot
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de08.JPG


And a few other assortments from that morning. Nice to see after an intense 
night!!!!!
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de05.JPG
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de10.JPG
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de11.JPG
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0309de12.JPG

Cya!!


Dave Ellem
Storm Lover From Wollongbar,
Northern Rivers,
NE NSW

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Catherine" <faerinelda at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re Winter Approaching
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 21:49:14 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

hello peoples.

well im working now and not having much time to do all this but wanted to
ask a very important question. how do you clasify an offshore wind is it a
wind blowing out to see or in from sea im quite confused.

I cant wait for winter to get here. am looking forward to the cold mornings
and lots of wooly jumpers.

also another question i work in a call centre taking calls from all over the
country, is it true that a place in NSW sounding something like Yaleup or
the like is in Cyclone mode. just wondering. we had really great clouds on
sunday. we drove to warnambool that day and i took some pictures which id
like to get all of your opinions on when i scan them : )!

have fun all
WW
Cath

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Off Topic Rant - Flood Mitigation : was 1 in 100 years.
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 21:35:58 +1000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Simon,

The basic thrust of my argument is that I do not believe that the rainfall
event was very unusual.  Yes, a few stations exceeded the Q100.  But, we are
kidding ourselves if we believe that, statically, it will be a long time
before we see another similar event in Brisbane.

Installing concrete lined drainage is very one dimensional thinking to
solving the problem and was not what I suggested – at all!

Flood mitigation means maintaining existing natural water courses clear of
silt and overgrowth.   Ensuring that the existing storm water system is
clear of debris and hydrostatically sound.  Re-establishing upstream
wetlands (and repopulating with natural wildlife) to act as natural slow
release dams.  Rebuilding the water course using Natural Channel Design.
Calculating water run off from new developments into the capacity of the
existing water way to provide drainage.  And so on.

The root cause of the Chermside flooding in 1994 was the Brisbane City
Council failed to maintain the Downfall creek water course.  Debris and
growth collected under the Newman Road bridge and it acted as a dam.  This
was identified (or admitted) in the Chermside Regional Centre development
plan (circ 1995).  Funding was provided in the following fiscal year to
rectify the problem with the water course and to establish a slow release
wetland upstream.  (Which, I understand, has worked.)

Another incident that springs to mind was the heavy rain fall on ANZAC day
1988 (I think).  I was called out at 1:30 AM because the 11,000 Volt
electrical substation in the Transit Centre, located on the ground floor,
went under.  (Next time you visit the Transit Centre, check out the distance
between the ground floor and the road.)  Root cause of the problem was
debris blocking the storm water drain, i.e., lack of maintenance.

I agree that it is expensive to flood mitigate below the Q100 level.
However, flooding also occurred on Friday above the Q100 level.  In areas
that it has never happened before.  Due, in my opinion, to a lack of flood
mitigation expenditure.  If you live above the Q100 level, surely is it
reasonable to expect that the Council will ensure that it remains that way.
(I actually live at the Q10,000 level :) – I hope.)

To their credit the Brisbane City Council have significantly increased the
00/01 budget from $23.2M to $42.9M for flood mitigation.  (I categorise this
as an omission of under funding in the past.)  Yes, flood mitigation is
expensive.  However, flooding has a high cost to society.  It disruptive to
the local economy.  Adversely impacts on the lower social economic groups.
(The rich can afford to live above the flood level.  The poor, uninsured,
cannot.)  Community benefits, or as economists call the social good, far
outweigh the cost of flood mitigation.  (Forget the ‘what price is a life
argument”.  I am talking straight trade off in costs.)

However, reducing expenditure in this area is a gamble that Councils can get
away with.  Since they are elected on a 3 or 4 year cycle they have a good
chance of missing a significant rain fall event.  It is a bit like skipping
an oil change on the car.  You can get away with it once or twice and spend
the money on getting re-elected.

I have no one-party political motivation, per se.  I do personally believe
that Brisbane (under both political parties) has under invested in flood
mitigation in the last 10 years.  (Just the same as I believe that, under
both political parties, the Commonwealth has under invested in the BoM.)
Yes, it was an unusual event.  Yes, there was property damage and loss of
life.  But lets not get carried away with the media hype of how serious it
was.  Or let fresh experiences take precedence over memories of past events.
Instead, look at the rain fall in northern NSW.  Contemplate the situation
that Brisbane would find itself in if that rain has moved a few hundred
kilometres north.

I stand by my original comments. We are letting ourselves be lulled to sleep
by Q100 talk (including cop out comments by Brisbane City Councillors).  If
I am a lone voice in the wilderness on this issue, so be it.



Regards,

Anthony Spierings
as029 at bigpond.net.au


> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Simon Clarke
> Sent: Wednesday, 14 March 2001 4:28 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: 1 in 100 years.
>
>
> To Anthony S
>
> What is your motivation with this one - concrete lined drainage channels
> everywhere ?
>
> You must realise that many of the flood affected dwellings and properties
> are sited well below the magical 1 in 100 year flood level. If you live
> there, this is what happens from time to time. No amount of money spent on
> flood mitigation will stop these places from flooding.
>
> Also you are forgetting there are other community pressures that result in
> BCC "cutting back" (your evidence not mine) on flood mitigation (ie - the
> push for greener/cleaner and more natural waterways etc etc...)
>
> I don't think the amount of money spent on flood mitigation by BCC is the
> problem here.
>
> I believe it was an a pretty amazing event in its own right. I
> don't see too
> many people disagreeing on this score.
>
> Believe me I am no spokesman for BCC, but I think it is better to
> stay well
> clear of the politics of attributing blame.
>
> Simon
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, March 13, 2001 11:20 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: 1 in 100 years.
>
>
> >
> > Hello David,
> >
> > I hear and agree with what you have said.
> >
> > While the media must share some blame, they are aided and abetted by the
> > Brisbane City Councillors.  We had a heavy fall at Chermside in
> Jan 94 (if
> > memory serves) that caused flash flooding.  Shops in Chermside Shopping
> > Centre were flooded and Byrne Ford lost 50 odd vehicles.  As luck would
> have
> > it, I was at a public meeting with the local Councillor as few
> days later.
> > He kept saying that the rainfall was a "Q25" and "not expected to happen
> > again anytime soon".
> >
> > While Q100 talk sounds nice in the media (and, with due respece
> out of the
> > BoM records), but all it does is put the population to sleep (i.e., it
> will
> > be a long time before it happens again).  And it give the Brisbane City
> > Council a cop out.  Brisbane City Council has cut back on its flood
> > mitigation expenditure in the last decade, as the memory of 1974 slowly
> > fades.  Hopefully, this will kick them into action.
> >
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Anthony Spierings
> >
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of David Jones
> > > Sent: Tuesday, 13 March 2001 10:36 AM
> > > To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)
> > > Subject: aus-wx: 1 in 100 years.
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > >Basically it means there's a 1% chance of happening in any
> given year,
> > > >hence it should statistically occur once everyone 100 years.  But of
> > > >course, this is not always the case.
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the
> body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Colorado Storm Photos
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 11:24:24 -0700
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All,

A researcher in our group, Ian Wittmeyer, has just updated some of his
photos. He chased for VORTEX and other mesoscale research missions. He has
had his photo's published in Calenders and the like - Some of these photos
are beyond imagination and well worth sifting through to find. Note that
there is a good portion of Colorado landscapes which probbaly won't intrest
most of you but there awesome shots nevertheless.

http://reef.atmos.colostate.edu/ian/scanned/best/

Cheers, Lyle

    |
 - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- --  -    -
    |
    |  Graduate Research Assistant                     /\
    .  Department of Atmospheric Science           _  /  \
    .  Colorado State University                  / \/    \
       ph: +1-(970)-491-7785                     /  /~~~~~~\/\
    .  email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu          /~~/       /  \


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re Winter Approaching
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 11:30:13 -0700
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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hey Catherine,

Offshore means the wind is blowing off the sand onto the ocean - 'off the
shore' (eg Land breeze)

Onshore is the opposite, win comming from the ocean onto the shore (eg Sea
Breeze)

hope this helps, Lyle


----- Original Message -----
From: "Catherine" <faerinelda at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 3:49 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re Winter Approaching


> hello peoples.
>
> well im working now and not having much time to do all this but wanted to
> ask a very important question. how do you clasify an offshore wind is it a
> wind blowing out to see or in from sea im quite confused.
>
> I cant wait for winter to get here. am looking forward to the cold
mornings
> and lots of wooly jumpers.
>
> also another question i work in a call centre taking calls from all over
the
> country, is it true that a place in NSW sounding something like Yaleup or
> the like is in Cyclone mode. just wondering. we had really great clouds on
> sunday. we drove to warnambool that day and i took some pictures which id
> like to get all of your opinions on when i scan them : )!
>
> have fun all
> WW
> Cath
>
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X-Originating-IP: [210.8.232.5]
From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: High storm potential for Sthn NSW
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 22:50:19 
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 14 Mar 2001 22:50:20.0101 (UTC) FILETIME=[255B8750:01C0ACD9]
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

Looks like it could be a great day ahead for storms in sthn NSW.

In Canberra at 9.00 am the "out the window" technique shows a sky full of 
active castellanus and alto-cu's with some congestus. A nice moisture haze 
with quite turbulent Cu is evident at lower layers. The lightning tracker 
also shows some electrical activity over the Riverina earlier this morning 
(the congestus I can see makes lightning to the west plausible).

The AVN indices suggest that the most favourable area for storms today is to 
the north west of NSW - just east of trough line at around 145E. The air to 
the west of the trough is markedly drier with warm air aloft.

The approach of a mid-level cloud band over SA ahead of a strong front due 
tomorrow should should add to increasing instability later in SW NSW later 
today and tomorrow - this could produce some very interesting wx.

I look forward to an interesting day.

Patrick
Canberra
_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 14:13:14 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High storm potential for Sthn NSW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Patrick

Yeah its not looking too bad, i think tomorrow will be a good day as the trough
and front move closer to eastern NSW..
(central area's and ranges should fire) , saturday could see rain as the front
moves through though... hopefully not too much cloud developes ahead of it and
it will kick up some good storms
See what happens..

Matt Smith

Patrick Tobin wrote:

> Hi all,
>
> Looks like it could be a great day ahead for storms in sthn NSW.
>
> In Canberra at 9.00 am the "out the window" technique shows a sky full of
> active castellanus and alto-cu's with some congestus. A nice moisture haze
> with quite turbulent Cu is evident at lower layers. The lightning tracker
> also shows some electrical activity over the Riverina earlier this morning
> (the congestus I can see makes lightning to the west plausible).
>
> The AVN indices suggest that the most favourable area for storms today is to
> the north west of NSW - just east of trough line at around 145E. The air to
> the west of the trough is markedly drier with warm air aloft.
>
> The approach of a mid-level cloud band over SA ahead of a strong front due
> tomorrow should should add to increasing instability later in SW NSW later
> today and tomorrow - this could produce some very interesting wx.
>
> I look forward to an interesting day.
>
> Patrick
> Canberra
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: North Coast flood report
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 03:34:45 GMT
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I've put a report on the North Coast floods on the AWN website. Follow
the links from the front page; if it's data you're after, go to the
pages for individual days between 8 and 12 March.


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://www.australianweathernews.com
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X-Originating-IP: [203.54.87.95]
From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Approaching strong front
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 16:53:33 +1030
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<x-flowed>
Interesting night and tomorrow morning ahead for Adelaide if the forecast 
holds true.  With rain likely to develop tomorrow morning with possible 
thunderstorms and a shoer or two and a possible thunderstorm even later 
tonight.  There is some potential for some heavy falls.  A road weather 
alert has already been issued for the rain event, enforcing the possibility 
of severe weather.  Winds should also become rather strong, especialy futher 
south where gale force winds are likely.  The first significant cold front 
for the season looks like being a good one.  Now I can only hope this 
forecast comes true!  Bring it on!



_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 16:30:26 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Interesting Brisbane Forecast...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

Has anyone seen the 4pm Brisbane forecast?  I'm assuming there is an
error here - they are forecasting TS for Saturday and a few showers for
Sunday.  I think they have this the wrong way around?  Their wind
forecast actually has the S'ly change coming through on Sunday...either
that or they have the wind forecast incorrect - but I would think Sunday
would be quite accurate at this stage.  Of course I could be totally
wrong all together!

Any thoughts in regards to TS for Sat or Sun?
 
SOUTHEAST COAST FORECASTS
Issued at 4:10pm on Thursday the 15th of March 2001
for Thursday night and Friday

IDF45Q15
SOUTHEAST COAST DISTRICT
Cloudy at times with isolated showers near the coast. 
Moderate to fresh SE winds, strong at times about the exposed coast.
Winds
easing a little during Friday.  
Saturday   ... Late showers or storms.  
Sunday     ... A few showers. 
Monday     ... Mostly fine.  

IDF00Q00
BRISBANE METROPOLITAN AREA
Cloudy at times but mostly fine. Only a brief shower. 
Moderate to fresh SE winds easing a little during Friday.         
Brisbane for Friday     ... MIN  19   MAX  27 
Bayside for Friday      ... MIN  19   MAX  27 
UV INDEX - 9 [Very High]
Saturday   ... A late shower or storm.    MIN  19   MAX  28 
Sunday     ... A shower or two.           MIN  19   MAX  28 
Monday     ... Mostly fine.               MIN  20   MAX  28 

IDF10Q00
MORETON BAY
 
Saturday   ... SE/NE winds 10/15 knots. 
Sunday     ... N'ly winds 10/15 knots before a 20 knot S'ly change
during the afternoon.  

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Off Topic Rant - Flood Mitigation : was 1 in 100 years.
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 18:15:01 +1100
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Anthony S

Thanks for your response to my e-mail - you make your point very much
clearer.

If one contemplates a 'Q100' event over a much broader area (such as the
recent subtropical event in northern NSW), Brisbane and all the surrounding
local authorities would be in tremendous strife. Has this event been any
early warning sign ?

Enough said on that issue for me.

I appreciate your considered reply.

Regards
Simon

----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 10:35 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Off Topic Rant - Flood Mitigation : was 1 in 100 years.


Simon,

The basic thrust of my argument is that I do not believe that the rainfall
event was very unusual.  Yes, a few stations exceeded the Q100.  But, we are
kidding ourselves if we believe that, statically, it will be a long time
before we see another similar event in Brisbane.

Installing concrete lined drainage is very one dimensional thinking to
solving the problem and was not what I suggested - at all!

Flood mitigation means maintaining existing natural water courses clear of
silt and overgrowth.   Ensuring that the existing storm water system is
clear of debris and hydrostatically sound.  Re-establishing upstream
wetlands (and repopulating with natural wildlife) to act as natural slow
release dams.  Rebuilding the water course using Natural Channel Design.
Calculating water run off from new developments into the capacity of the
existing water way to provide drainage.  And so on.

The root cause of the Chermside flooding in 1994 was the Brisbane City
Council failed to maintain the Downfall creek water course.  Debris and
growth collected under the Newman Road bridge and it acted as a dam.  This
was identified (or admitted) in the Chermside Regional Centre development
plan (circ 1995).  Funding was provided in the following fiscal year to
rectify the problem with the water course and to establish a slow release
wetland upstream.  (Which, I understand, has worked.)

Another incident that springs to mind was the heavy rain fall on ANZAC day
1988 (I think).  I was called out at 1:30 AM because the 11,000 Volt
electrical substation in the Transit Centre, located on the ground floor,
went under.  (Next time you visit the Transit Centre, check out the distance
between the ground floor and the road.)  Root cause of the problem was
debris blocking the storm water drain, i.e., lack of maintenance.

I agree that it is expensive to flood mitigate below the Q100 level.
However, flooding also occurred on Friday above the Q100 level.  In areas
that it has never happened before.  Due, in my opinion, to a lack of flood
mitigation expenditure.  If you live above the Q100 level, surely is it
reasonable to expect that the Council will ensure that it remains that way.
(I actually live at the Q10,000 level :) - I hope.)

To their credit the Brisbane City Council have significantly increased the
00/01 budget from $23.2M to $42.9M for flood mitigation.  (I categorise this
as an omission of under funding in the past.)  Yes, flood mitigation is
expensive.  However, flooding has a high cost to society.  It disruptive to
the local economy.  Adversely impacts on the lower social economic groups.
(The rich can afford to live above the flood level.  The poor, uninsured,
cannot.)  Community benefits, or as economists call the social good, far
outweigh the cost of flood mitigation.  (Forget the 'what price is a life
argument".  I am talking straight trade off in costs.)

However, reducing expenditure in this area is a gamble that Councils can get
away with.  Since they are elected on a 3 or 4 year cycle they have a good
chance of missing a significant rain fall event.  It is a bit like skipping
an oil change on the car.  You can get away with it once or twice and spend
the money on getting re-elected.

I have no one-party political motivation, per se.  I do personally believe
that Brisbane (under both political parties) has under invested in flood
mitigation in the last 10 years.  (Just the same as I believe that, under
both political parties, the Commonwealth has under invested in the BoM.)
Yes, it was an unusual event.  Yes, there was property damage and loss of
life.  But lets not get carried away with the media hype of how serious it
was.  Or let fresh experiences take precedence over memories of past events.
Instead, look at the rain fall in northern NSW.  Contemplate the situation
that Brisbane would find itself in if that rain has moved a few hundred
kilometres north.

I stand by my original comments. We are letting ourselves be lulled to sleep
by Q100 talk (including cop out comments by Brisbane City Councillors).  If
I am a lone voice in the wilderness on this issue, so be it.



Regards,

Anthony Spierings
as029 at bigpond.net.au


> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Simon Clarke
> Sent: Wednesday, 14 March 2001 4:28 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: 1 in 100 years.
>
>
> To Anthony S
>
> What is your motivation with this one - concrete lined drainage channels
> everywhere ?
>
> You must realise that many of the flood affected dwellings and properties
> are sited well below the magical 1 in 100 year flood level. If you live
> there, this is what happens from time to time. No amount of money spent on
> flood mitigation will stop these places from flooding.
>
> Also you are forgetting there are other community pressures that result in
> BCC "cutting back" (your evidence not mine) on flood mitigation (ie - the
> push for greener/cleaner and more natural waterways etc etc...)
>
> I don't think the amount of money spent on flood mitigation by BCC is the
> problem here.
>
> I believe it was an a pretty amazing event in its own right. I
> don't see too
> many people disagreeing on this score.
>
> Believe me I am no spokesman for BCC, but I think it is better to
> stay well
> clear of the politics of attributing blame.
>
> Simon
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, March 13, 2001 11:20 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: 1 in 100 years.
>
>
> >
> > Hello David,
> >
> > I hear and agree with what you have said.
> >
> > While the media must share some blame, they are aided and abetted by the
> > Brisbane City Councillors.  We had a heavy fall at Chermside in
> Jan 94 (if
> > memory serves) that caused flash flooding.  Shops in Chermside Shopping
> > Centre were flooded and Byrne Ford lost 50 odd vehicles.  As luck would
> have
> > it, I was at a public meeting with the local Councillor as few
> days later.
> > He kept saying that the rainfall was a "Q25" and "not expected to happen
> > again anytime soon".
> >
> > While Q100 talk sounds nice in the media (and, with due respece
> out of the
> > BoM records), but all it does is put the population to sleep (i.e., it
> will
> > be a long time before it happens again).  And it give the Brisbane City
> > Council a cop out.  Brisbane City Council has cut back on its flood
> > mitigation expenditure in the last decade, as the memory of 1974 slowly
> > fades.  Hopefully, this will kick them into action.
> >
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Anthony Spierings
> >
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of David Jones
> > > Sent: Tuesday, 13 March 2001 10:36 AM
> > > To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)
> > > Subject: aus-wx: 1 in 100 years.
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > >Basically it means there's a 1% chance of happening in any
> given year,
> > > >hence it should statistically occur once everyone 100 years.  But of
> > > >course, this is not always the case.
> >
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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting Brisbane Forecast...
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 18:28:49 +1100
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Anthony

My thoughts are that they are a bit premature on Saturday. But it looks as
though everything is moving quite quickly.

My question was more of "what chance of TS very late Saturday, then
unsettled weather (possibly rain periods) for Sunday into Monday for SEQ?"

I dunno. I think its a more traditional upper level type thing going to
happen, but I am a bit of an amateur when it comes to these sort of 'upper'
things.

Discuss Saturday. See you then

Simon


----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 15, 2001 5:30 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Interesting Brisbane Forecast...


> Hi all,
>
> Has anyone seen the 4pm Brisbane forecast?  I'm assuming there is an
> error here - they are forecasting TS for Saturday and a few showers for
> Sunday.  I think they have this the wrong way around?  Their wind
> forecast actually has the S'ly change coming through on Sunday...either
> that or they have the wind forecast incorrect - but I would think Sunday
> would be quite accurate at this stage.  Of course I could be totally
> wrong all together!
>
> Any thoughts in regards to TS for Sat or Sun?
>
> SOUTHEAST COAST FORECASTS
> Issued at 4:10pm on Thursday the 15th of March 2001
> for Thursday night and Friday
>
> IDF45Q15
> SOUTHEAST COAST DISTRICT
> Cloudy at times with isolated showers near the coast.
> Moderate to fresh SE winds, strong at times about the exposed coast.
> Winds
> easing a little during Friday.
> Saturday   ... Late showers or storms.
> Sunday     ... A few showers.
> Monday     ... Mostly fine.
>
> IDF00Q00
> BRISBANE METROPOLITAN AREA
> Cloudy at times but mostly fine. Only a brief shower.
> Moderate to fresh SE winds easing a little during Friday.
> Brisbane for Friday     ... MIN  19   MAX  27
> Bayside for Friday      ... MIN  19   MAX  27
> UV INDEX - 9 [Very High]
> Saturday   ... A late shower or storm.    MIN  19   MAX  28
> Sunday     ... A shower or two.           MIN  19   MAX  28
> Monday     ... Mostly fine.               MIN  20   MAX  28
>
> IDF10Q00
> MORETON BAY
>
> Saturday   ... SE/NE winds 10/15 knots.
> Sunday     ... N'ly winds 10/15 knots before a 20 knot S'ly change
> during the afternoon.
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Next TC ???
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 19:18:51 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>All</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Early days yet, but watch in the vicinity of the 
Kimberley Coast for the next potential Aussie TC (if the TS's in this area move 
westwards). Possible twin in Northern Hemisphere also (a more extravagant guess) 
???&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
X-Sender: mattb at mail.chariot.net.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.0
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 21:42:19 -0500
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matthew Bonser <mattb at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Approaching strong front
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Looks as though the cold front coming across from WA is going to be a good
one. The bureau issued a Severe Thunderstorm Advice at 9.00pm for the West
Coast, with winds of 122 kph recorded at Nullarbor on the WA/SA border. By
21:30 Nullarbor had recorded 11.2 mm of rain and the wind had dropped off
to almost nothing. 

According the weatherzone lightning tracker there is plenty of activity in
this system so it looks as though it will be an interesting morning, 

Cheers

Matt B


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Approaching strong front
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 13:17:36 GMT
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On Thu, 15 Mar 2001 21:42:19 -0500, Matthew Bonser
<mattb at chariot.net.au> wrote:

>Looks as though the cold front coming across from WA is going to be a good
>one. The bureau issued a Severe Thunderstorm Advice at 9.00pm for the West
>Coast, with winds of 122 kph recorded at Nullarbor on the WA/SA border. By
>21:30 Nullarbor had recorded 11.2 mm of rain and the wind had dropped off
>to almost nothing. 
>
It must have been a good blow! 7.4mm fell in 6 minutes, the wind
gusted to 122km/h twice (20.09 and 20.11), and the mean speed at 20.09
was 85km/h. It dropped the temp from 32.0 to 19.9 in 13 minutes.

It passed through Ceduna a bit before midnight CDST, but mostly light
blue on the radar.

Laurier

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "James P" <severewxoz at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Another low for east?
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 01:42:46 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Hi list,
     Just looking at GASP models into next week and see that low and 
associated cold front [currently affecting SA] will find a nice little home 
off the southern coast of NSW. This should increase and sharpen the 
southerly flow over the eastern coasts by tuesday.
     I know this low will be of a completely different structure to last 
weeks but for some reason have a feeling about this one. Those water temps 
may work wonders!
     Any thoughts people.......

Regards
JAMES P

Sydney

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Rapidly developing rainband
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 05:32:54 +1030
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<x-flowed>
Interesting thunderstorm just northeast of Adelaide about an hour ago great 
to watch quite a bit of lightning.  Just starting to rain now and a rainband 
appears to be rapidly developing especially to the northwest were some large 
amounts of yellow and some green are developing on the
radar.  Also some pink near Murray Mouth with what looks like a 
thunderstorm.  The rain is getting quite heavy now.  It looks like a 
fantastic morning is on the way for Adelaide.  Hope it continues.

SG
Adelaide
SA
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: rain at last? and more to follow next week.
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 08:26:20 +1100
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I hate to blow our chances (Murphy's law), but with much of Victoria having
gone 4+ weeks without 1mm of rain (Melbourne at last count 29 days), the
most recent sat pics and batch of progs hold out the promise for breaking
this dry spell. Already, a number of 10mm+ falls have come in from SA, and
while the very low dewpoints embbedded over Victoria will probably slow the
onset of rain, falls in the general range of 5 to 15mm seem likely. An
interesting recent develoment in the model scenarios, is the placement of a
rather deep cold pool near Mt Gambier for tonight with a very strong
barocline (T gradient) associated with the front, followed by weak
cyclogenesis (of sorts in Bass Strait). If this eventuates, there is the
potential for a significant rain event in southern Victoria.

Longer range, the model suggest the potential development of a major low
near South Australia middle of next week as a significant cold trough/pool
moves north from SW of WA, and tropical moisture drifts down from NW WA.
Certainly looks like a healthy scenario for thunderstorms and rain, and
rather tropical conditions full stop for the eastern states.
Interestingly, the major blocking highs which have inhabited the Tasman Sea
region for the past 4 months (or is that 4 years?), are now taking up
residence near or even SE of New Zealand. From experience, this placement
tends to be quite favourable for cut-off and interesting weather genearlly
in the SE of Aus as cold pools/troughs tend to cut-off near "us".

Cheers,

David.

d.jones at bom.gov.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au (Unverified)
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 09:05:47 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide latest
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All

We had a pre frontal trough go through here about 5.00am local time.
Dropped a few mm of mostly large drops.  Nothing much really.  Radar shows
yet another pre frontal feature [?] currently crossing the gulfs with some
good stretches of pink [squall line?].  Latest IR stapics show two
prefrontals and then the front itself, followed by a cold air field.  Seems
to be a woosy NW cloudband as well.  I'm sure the bark will be worse that
the bite, but it sure looks impressive.

Currently 18degrees at St Peters and I definetely want another 5-10mm thank
you!
Roll on winter!

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain at last? and more to follow next week.
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 10:47:11 +1100
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Hi David.
Thanks for your prognosis, it will lift the dust encrusted Victorian weather
watchers spirits to again look forward to some weather replenishment!.In
respect to the approaching cool season, I am interested in the relative
warmth of the southern ocean adjacent to the Australian mainland (also Bass
Strait) with "normal" progression of the baric ridge towards the interior of
the Aus: mainland and the "arrival" of the mid lat westerly fronts and
troughs, the interaction of over running cold air may see a series of
cyclogenisis events near to the south and southeast of Australia giving rise
to  a period of above average rainfall,it will also be interesting to follow
the favoured longitude positioning of the long  wave troughs ,regards Clyve
Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 16, 2001 8:26 AM
Subject: aus-wx: rain at last? and more to follow next week.


> I hate to blow our chances (Murphy's law), but with much of Victoria
having
> gone 4+ weeks without 1mm of rain (Melbourne at last count 29 days), the
> most recent sat pics and batch of progs hold out the promise for breaking
> this dry spell. Already, a number of 10mm+ falls have come in from SA, and
> while the very low dewpoints embbedded over Victoria will probably slow
the
> onset of rain, falls in the general range of 5 to 15mm seem likely. An
> interesting recent develoment in the model scenarios, is the placement of
a
> rather deep cold pool near Mt Gambier for tonight with a very strong
> barocline (T gradient) associated with the front, followed by weak
> cyclogenesis (of sorts in Bass Strait). If this eventuates, there is the
> potential for a significant rain event in southern Victoria.
>
> Longer range, the model suggest the potential development of a major low
> near South Australia middle of next week as a significant cold trough/pool
> moves north from SW of WA, and tropical moisture drifts down from NW WA.
> Certainly looks like a healthy scenario for thunderstorms and rain, and
> rather tropical conditions full stop for the eastern states.
> Interestingly, the major blocking highs which have inhabited the Tasman
Sea
> region for the past 4 months (or is that 4 years?), are now taking up
> residence near or even SE of New Zealand. From experience, this placement
> tends to be quite favourable for cut-off and interesting weather genearlly
> in the SE of Aus as cold pools/troughs tend to cut-off near "us".
>
> Cheers,
>
> David.
>
> d.jones at bom.gov.au
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Autumn weather patterns, Russian winter, Canadian winter.
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 10:57:34 +1100
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Hi all,

That sounds interesting David. Lets hope it portends well for winter. Then
again, last season was pretty good snow wise.
Blackheath had quite a lot of snow.

Also, did anyone see the news story on Moscow and how folk have been killed
by falling ice (from high above on buildings) etc? Pretty amazing footage. I
remember someone here saying Siberia had had its coldest winter in ages and
apparently Russia generally did too. Is that true? If so, its certainly
warmed up pretty quickly (for them) of late with forecasts going for 8C
soon. I wonder if thats one possible trend if the climate continues to warm,
severe winters at times but shorter ones...

Apparently Canada (Not sure what city/town) has a place at the moment where
folk are taking the risk and driving across a large frozen  bay (or river?
news item was obscure) to greatly reduce driving time. Again, great footage
of a guy making the dash across the ice. Two brothers are charging $5 to
clear the snow and maintain the ice highway but not taking any
responsibility for cars collapsing into the freezing, cracking ice! Anyone
know more about this?

Cheers,

Lindsay P.


Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au .



> Interestingly, the major blocking highs which have inhabited the Tasman
Sea
> region for the past 4 months (or is that 4 years?), are now taking up
> residence near or even SE of New Zealand. From experience, this placement
> tends to be quite favourable for cut-off and interesting weather genearlly
> in the SE of Aus as cold pools/troughs tend to cut-off near "us".
>
> Cheers,
>
> David.
>
> d.jones at bom.gov.au
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Autumn weather patterns, Russian winter, Canadian winter.
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 17:19:03 -0700
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Hey Lidsay,

The coldest ever recorded tempreture in the Northern Hemisphere was recorded
this winter in Siberia, i think -72F???? A freind of mine saw a guy in
Austria walk out of a pub, drunk, and try pull an icycle of the side of a
building, they all collapsed and basically skewed him alive. Pretty horrible
story but i think not to uncommon in cold climates. I mean, I know when i
lived in the snow fields, it's just common sense never to walk near
buildings unless your going straight through to the doors.

Don't know about the Canada story...

Cheers, Lyle



----- Original Message -----
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 15, 2001 4:57 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Autumn weather patterns, Russian winter, Canadian winter.


> Hi all,
>
> That sounds interesting David. Lets hope it portends well for winter. Then
> again, last season was pretty good snow wise.
> Blackheath had quite a lot of snow.
>
> Also, did anyone see the news story on Moscow and how folk have been
killed
> by falling ice (from high above on buildings) etc? Pretty amazing footage.
I
> remember someone here saying Siberia had had its coldest winter in ages
and
> apparently Russia generally did too. Is that true? If so, its certainly
> warmed up pretty quickly (for them) of late with forecasts going for 8C
> soon. I wonder if thats one possible trend if the climate continues to
warm,
> severe winters at times but shorter ones...
>
> Apparently Canada (Not sure what city/town) has a place at the moment
where
> folk are taking the risk and driving across a large frozen  bay (or river?
> news item was obscure) to greatly reduce driving time. Again, great
footage
> of a guy making the dash across the ice. Two brothers are charging $5 to
> clear the snow and maintain the ice highway but not taking any
> responsibility for cars collapsing into the freezing, cracking ice! Anyone
> know more about this?
>
> Cheers,
>
> Lindsay P.
>
>
> Lindsay Pearce
> Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> Email: writer at lisp.com.au .
>
>
>
> > Interestingly, the major blocking highs which have inhabited the Tasman
> Sea
> > region for the past 4 months (or is that 4 years?), are now taking up
> > residence near or even SE of New Zealand. From experience, this
placement
> > tends to be quite favourable for cut-off and interesting weather
genearlly
> > in the SE of Aus as cold pools/troughs tend to cut-off near "us".
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > David.
> >
> > d.jones at bom.gov.au
> >
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your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Approaching strong front
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 13:17:36 GMT
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On Thu, 15 Mar 2001 21:42:19 -0500, Matthew Bonser
<mattb at chariot.net.au> wrote:

>Looks as though the cold front coming across from WA is going to be a good
>one. The bureau issued a Severe Thunderstorm Advice at 9.00pm for the West
>Coast, with winds of 122 kph recorded at Nullarbor on the WA/SA border. By
>21:30 Nullarbor had recorded 11.2 mm of rain and the wind had dropped off
>to almost nothing. 
>
It must have been a good blow! 7.4mm fell in 6 minutes, the wind
gusted to 122km/h twice (20.09 and 20.11), and the mean speed at 20.09
was 85km/h. It dropped the temp from 32.0 to 19.9 in 13 minutes.

It passed through Ceduna a bit before midnight CDST, but mostly light
blue on the radar.

Laurier

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 20:05:26 -0500 (EST)
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 11:57:56 +1100
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Thanks for that Lyle. Made for interesting reading :) I guess you are right
about being careful in really cold climates. I've only ever seen ice a
"little" like that in Oberon during very cold mornings in cold pool areas,
getting close to -10C actually.

Just on another note, I've received the HaHa/Snowwhite virus twice in the
last 5 minutes. It arrived at the same time as a couple of emails did, to
the list.

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 16, 2001 11:19 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Autumn weather patterns, Russian winter, Canadian
winter.


> Hey Lidsay,
>
> The coldest ever recorded tempreture in the Northern Hemisphere was
recorded
> this winter in Siberia, i think -72F???? A freind of mine saw a guy in
> Austria walk out of a pub, drunk, and try pull an icycle of the side of a
> building, they all collapsed and basically skewed him alive. Pretty
horrible
> story but i think not to uncommon in cold climates. I mean, I know when i
> lived in the snow fields, it's just common sense never to walk near
> buildings unless your going straight through to the doors.
>
> Don't know about the Canada story...
>
> Cheers, Lyle
>
>
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 17:31:01 -0800 (PST)
From: Andrew Boskell <a_boskell at yahoo.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Unbelievable!?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

G'day All,

If this eventuates it should be interesting,
considering how dry it's been in Tassie of late.

WARNING
FLOOD WATCH ADVICE
Issued at 12:03pm on Friday the 16th of March 2001

Initial Flood Watch advice for Tasmania

Statement:
Moderate to locally heavy rainfall possible over
northern areas this afternoon,
particularly about the northeast, extending throughout
the state overnight and
tomorrow morning.

This is likely to cause local flash flooding in some
areas, and significant
rises in rivers and streams later today and tomorrow.

In areas of high rainfall, there is concern for
possible soil erosion and debris
flows.

Weather Outlook:
Further rain and isolated thunderstorms. 

Regards,
Andrew Boskell

=====
Andrew Boskell

"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"

__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get email at your own domain with Yahoo! Mail. 
http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Western Vic Wx
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 02:08:14 
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<x-flowed>
Hey All

Well Today could be the last lot of summertime storm wx for a while and it's 
looking good, at the moment there are some rather large Cu Towers bellowing 
upwards and the northly wind is getting up. Also some static on the am 
radio. didn't the BoM have this penciled as a weak/weaking front, hmmm looks 
pretty strong, and the weather co have it as a strong one.

well good hunting
Les Baxter
_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Unbelievable!?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 13:46:27 +1100 (EST)
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

> 
> G'day All,
> 
> If this eventuates it should be interesting,
> considering how dry it's been in Tassie of late.
> 

The latest LAPS run is developing a small low over Tasmania overnight,
falling more or less into line with the higher-resolution MESOLAPS
run from last night (although they differ on the location of the low).

It now seems likely that a low of some kind will form, and that 
heavy rain will be associated with it somewhere, but the exact location
of the low will determine where that somewhere is. At the moment the
highest potential for heavy rain seems to be in north-eastern Tasmania
and South Gippsland, but the possibility exists for either Melbourne
or Hobart (although probably not both) to get substantial rain on
the southern and western flanks of the low.

This is separate from the rainband currently in the eastern half of
SA ahead of, and with, the front (which appears to have reached
Adelaide within the last hour). Much of Victoria should do well out
of this, but Melbourne may miss out on most of the action because of
the rainshadow effects of the ranges to the north and west.

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 21:55:32 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Autumn weather patterns, Russian winter, Canadian
  winter.
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Siberia had extreme cold throughout the winter with temperatures of - 70
degrees F for much of the winter.  Even as of 3 to 4 weeks ago temperatures
were still - 40 degrees C/F.  Extreme cold!

> Also, did anyone see the news story on Moscow and how folk have been
killed
> by falling ice (from high above on buildings) etc? Pretty amazing
footage. I
> remember someone here saying Siberia had had its coldest winter in ages
and
> apparently Russia generally did too. Is that true? If so, its certainly
> warmed up pretty quickly (for them) of late with forecasts going for 8C
> soon. I wonder if thats one possible trend if the climate continues to
warm,
> severe winters at times but shorter ones...


************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


essage text written by INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Also, did anyone see the news story on Moscow and how folk have been
killed
by falling ice (from high above on buildings) etc? Pretty amazing footage.
I
remember someone here saying Siberia had had its coldest winter in ages and
apparently Russia generally did too. Is that true? If so, its certainly
warmed up pretty quickly (for them) of late with forecasts going for 8C
soon. I wonder if thats one possible trend if the climate continues to
warm,
severe winters at times but shorter ones<

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: VIC STA
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 13:49:44 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
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<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=GENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY>
<DIV><FONT size=2><SPAN class=960344402-16032001>Anthony sent me this from Qld 
&lt;g&gt;&nbsp; JCU is showing a marked increase in the depth of cloud coming 
across &amp; the wind is starting to pick up ........</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY<BR>VICTORIAN REGIONAL OFFICE<BR><BR>NEWS 
FLASH - FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST<BR><BR>Severe Thunderstorm Advice<BR><BR>Issued 
at 1:07pm on Friday the 16th of March 2001 for the Mallee,&nbsp; Wimmera 
and<BR>Western districts of Victoria.<BR><BR>Thunderstorms have been identified 
on radar to the north and west of Victoria.<BR>These thunderstorms are likely to 
move eastward over the next few hours and<BR>result in&nbsp; severe 
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
<BR><BR>People in these districts are warned that the storms may 
produce:<BR><BR>- Flash flooding <BR>- Damaging winds<BR>- Large 
hail<BR><BR>This advice is valid until 7pm Friday and should not be used after 
this time.&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><SPAN class=960344402-16032001>Jane</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><SPAN class=960344402-16032001></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><SPAN class=960344402-16032001>
<DIV><FONT color=#000080><SPAN class=560243622-06042000><FONT color=#000080>
<DIV><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" size=2><SPAN 
class=560243622-06042000>---------------------------------------</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT face="MS Sans Serif"><SPAN class=560243622-06042000>Jane 
ONeill<SPAN class=760024721-13082000> - 
Melbourne</SPAN></SPAN></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000080 face="MS Sans Serif" size=2><SPAN 
class=560243622-06042000><SPAN class=690424221-03082000><A 
href="mailto:cadence at stormchasers.au.com">cadence at stormchasers.au.com</A></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000080 face="MS Sans Serif"><SPAN 
class=560243622-06042000><SPAN 
class=690424221-03082000></SPAN></SPAN></FONT><FONT size=2>&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000080 face="MS Sans Serif"><SPAN class=560243622-06042000>
<DIV><FONT color=#000080 face="MS Sans Serif" size=2><SPAN 
class=560243622-06042000>Melbourne Storm Chasers</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="MS Sans Serif" size=2><SPAN 
class=300420807-22062000><A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/">http://www.stormchasers.au.com</A></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="MS Sans Serif"><SPAN 
class=300420807-22062000></SPAN></FONT><FONT size=2>&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="MS Sans Serif"><SPAN 
class=300420807-22062000></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></FONT><FONT color=#000080 
face="MS Sans Serif" size=2><SPAN class=560243622-06042000>ASWA - 
Victoria</SPAN></FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000080 face="MS Sans Serif" size=2><SPAN 
class=560243622-06042000><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au/">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000080><SPAN class=560243622-06042000><FONT color=#000080 
face="MS Sans Serif" size=2><SPAN 
class=560243622-06042000>---------------------------------------</SPAN></FONT></SPAN></FONT></DIV></FONT></SPAN></FONT></DIV></SPAN></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5  September 22, 2000
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 14:18:49 +1100
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on Domino/Advance(Release 5.0.5 |September 22, 2000) at
 16/03/2001 02:18:47 PM
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Lightning Activity quite active out west... New NSW STA out now...

Going to be a interesting night here at work by the looks of this ..


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1335 on Friday the 16th of March 2001

This advice affects people in the following weather districts:

Upper Western, west of a line Enngonia/Bourke/Cobar
Lower Western, east of a line Broken Hill/Pooncarie/Balranald
Riverina, north of a line Balranald/Deniliquin/Narrandera/West Wyalong

Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon and
evening. Some of these are expected to be severe bringing damaging winds.


The STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE advises that as storms approach people should:
  * put vehicles under cover
  * move indoors away from windows

During and after the storm people should:
  * beware of fallen trees and power lines

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Two potential "warm" spots
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 14:37:27 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Hi all.
A look at the cloud band over Victoria at 1430hrs shows some potential
cyclogenisis,at the moment the large cloud band moving through northern
Victoria has started to "pivot" around a possible vorticity centre south of
Kangaroo island, also secondary bands are showing curving features near Mt
Gambier looks like something should show up near to the southwest of
Victoria over the next six hours or so,also there is a developing region of
positive convection near to the northeast of the Northern Territory this
region is starting to show developing upper divergence,interesting to see
both these regions of "potential" are indirectly connected.regards Clyve
Herbert..

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 14:24:17 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide latest, 2.20pm CST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Yay!

Rain - real rain, at last!  A couple of rolls of thunder at around 11.30am
have been followed by quite steady moderate rain for the last few hours.
Its only 15 degrees at my place now with over 10mm in the can and more to
come.  Splendid stuff and hopefully enough to keep the Vics happy and
settle the dust.

On the same topic the local bureau the otherday mentioned that sea surface
tempuratures in the tropical Indian Ocean were favourable [ie cool] for the
development of good NW cloudbands this autumn resulting in a 60-70% chance
of abouve average rain, at least for SA and western Vic.

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Ants doing a rain dance!!
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 15:13:29 +1100
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Hi Bussie and all.
After you have put Bessie the bus to bed have a look at what your local ants
are doing, down here they are all running around doing a decent dance!. A
walk to the local Leopold primary with the kids this morning and I saw them
everywhere and all racing around.,I even found a few upstairs,although a bit
of a wish forecast lets hope they are right...haven't heard any frogs
yet..regards Clyve H.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Ants doing a rain dance!!
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 15:36:55 +1100
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I can fill you in on the frogs - found 2 tiny ones sitting on the edge of
the pond while I was watering the garden last night - the frogs are still
about but they've been very, very quiet of late - haven't heard any for a
couple of months but I know there are a number around... does this mean that
frogs only make a noise when it's damp? & are silent for the rest of the
time?

Jane
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------


Hi Bussie and all.
After you have put Bessie the bus to bed have a look at what your local ants
are doing, down here they are all running around doing a decent dance!. A
walk to the local Leopold primary with the kids this morning and I saw them
everywhere and all racing around.,I even found a few upstairs,although a bit
of a wish forecast lets hope they are right...haven't heard any frogs
yet..regards Clyve H.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.54.87.95]
From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Follow up rains
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 15:35:27 +1030
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Mar 2001 05:05:27.0568 (UTC) FILETIME=[B7443100:01C0ADD6]
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<x-flowed>
Phil NW cloudbands do seem to be increasing this year, last year there were 
not all that many but we still had above average rainfall all round.  Anyway 
the strong cold front just passed through here causing some very strong wind 
gusts and heavy rain.  About 15mm all up here since this morning.  Follow up 
rains look likely by the middle of next week which is a great sign.

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 15:31:52 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Re: aus-wx: Two potential "warm" spots > and more
X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au
REPLY-TO: "Aussie Wx List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>

Hi Clive and All.

>Hi all.
>A look at the cloud band over Victoria at 1430hrs shows some potential
>cyclogenisis,at the moment the large cloud band moving through northern
>Victoria has started to "pivot" around a possible vorticity centre south of
>Kangaroo island, also secondary bands are showing curving features near Mt
>Gambier looks like something should show up near to the southwest of
>Victoria over the next six hours or so,also there is a developing region of
>positive convection near to the northeast of the Northern Territory this
>region is starting to show developing upper divergence,interesting to see
>both these regions of "potential" are indirectly connected.regards Clyve
>Herbert..

It would seem there are several "hot spots" across the N, the BoM has
issued the first TC for Shipping advice for the low NNE of Christmas
Island, and several lows are mentioned in the TC Outlooks, all pasted below.

Regards,
Carl.


>IDW23100
>40:0:1:24:10S105E999:11:00
>SECURITE
>
>HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
>AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>CENTRE PERTH AT 0412UTC 16 MARCH 2001
>
>GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
>
>IMPORTANT INFORMATION
>*  Wind speed refers to the average speed over a 10-minute period. Gusts
>may be
>up to 40 per cent stronger than the average speed.
>*  Wave and swell heights refer to 'significant wave heights' representing the
>average of the highest one third of the waves. The likely maximum wave height
>can be up to twice the significant wave height.
>
>SITUATION
>Tropical Low with central pressure 1002HPA located at 0400UTC
>within 30 nautical miles of
> Latitude  nine decimal nine south [9.9S]
> Longitude one hundred and five decimal eight east  [105.8E]
>moving west at 8 knots.
>
>AREA AFFECTED
>System may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in 18 to 24 hours, causing rough to
>very rough seas, moderate swell and 30/45 knot winds within 60 nautical
>miles of
>centre.
>
>FORECAST
>At 1600UTC 16 March.  10.0 south  104.0 east  1000hPa
>At 0400UTC 17 March.  10.0  south 102.5 east  998hPa
>
>Next warning issued at 1100 UTC 16 March 2001.
>
>WEATHER PERTH

>IDW10900
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
>Issued at 12:05pm WST on Friday the 16th of March 2001
>For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST
>
>Tropical Low
>Location          : near 10S  106E
>                    about 85 kilometres [46 nautical miles]
>                    north northeast of Xmas Island
>Central Pressure  : 1003 hPa
>Recent movement   : west 15 kilometres per hour [ 8 knots ]
>DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
>  next 24 hours   : moderate
>  24-48   hours   : moderate
>  48-72   hours   : moderate
>
>REMARKS - Low currently exists in a moderately sheared enviroment. Convection
>has persisted for 24 hours. Low is likely to move into a region of less shear
>within next 24 hours allowing the system to continue to slowly develop. The
>models suggest the low to continue to move west beyond 24 hours, though
>intensification is still slow.
>
>
>Second Tropical Low
>Location          : near 10S  89E
>                    about 840 kilometres [450 nautical miles]
>                    west northwest of Cocos Island
>Central Pressure  : 1006 hPa
>Recent movement   : west 8 kilomteres per hour [ 4 knots ]
>
>REMARKS - Poorly organised persistent convective cloud associated with
>low. Low
>is forecast to continue to move west outside of region with little if any
>development expected.
>
>
>
>** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of        **
>** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period.                   **
>** LOW = 10-20%   MODERATE = 30-40%   HIGH = 50% or more                   **

>IDW10800
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
>Issued at 12:28pm WST on Friday the 16th of March 2001
>For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST
>
>Tropical Low off in Eastern Arafura Sea
>Location          :near  10S  140E
>                   about 440 kilometres [240 nautical miles]
>                   NE of Nhulunbuy inthe Northern Territory
>Central Pressure  :1008 hPa
>Recent movement   :west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour [10 knots]
>
>DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
>  next 24 hours   : low
>  24-48   hours   : low
>  48-72   hours   : moderate
>
>REMARKS -
>
>** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of        **
>** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period.                   **
>** LOW = 10-20%   MODERATE = 30-40%   HIGH = 50% or more                   **
>
>There are no significant disturbances in evidence at this time within the
>northwestern region.
>The tropical low near 10S 140E in the eastern Arafura Sea is expected to move
>into the Timor Sea region by Monday. There is potential for development by the
>end of the outlook period for a system to the north of the Kimberley,
>though it
>is not expected to impact the coast at this stage.
>

>IDD10610
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Northern Territory Region
>Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
>FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
>Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
>at 1:26 pm CST Friday 16 MARCH 2001
>
>TROPICAL LOW in eastern Arafura Sea...
>   Location........near 10S 140E
>           ........i.e.about 440 km [240 nautical miles] NE of Nhulunbuy
>   Central pressure: 1008 hPa
>   Recent movement : towards the WSW at 18 km/h [10 knots]
>
>DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
>          Next 24h : low
>           24-48 h : low
>           48-72 h : moderate
>
>NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
>cyclone development within each 24 hour period...
>LOW = 10% or less        MODERATE = 20% - 40%        HIGH = 50% or more.
>
>REMARKS
>The low is expected to continue moving steadily westwards and be located
>in the
>Timor Sea by Monday where it may have some potential for development
>towards the
>end of the outlook period.
>
>Another weak low currently in the Timor Sea is also expected to continue
>moving
>west and has only a low potential for development during the outlook period.
>
>DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.



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X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 15:31:52 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Two potential "warm" spots > and more
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Clive and All.

>Hi all.
>A look at the cloud band over Victoria at 1430hrs shows some potential
>cyclogenisis,at the moment the large cloud band moving through northern
>Victoria has started to "pivot" around a possible vorticity centre south of
>Kangaroo island, also secondary bands are showing curving features near Mt
>Gambier looks like something should show up near to the southwest of
>Victoria over the next six hours or so,also there is a developing region of
>positive convection near to the northeast of the Northern Territory this
>region is starting to show developing upper divergence,interesting to see
>both these regions of "potential" are indirectly connected.regards Clyve
>Herbert..

It would seem there are several "hot spots" across the N, the BoM has
issued the first TC for Shipping advice for the low NNE of Christmas
Island, and several lows are mentioned in the TC Outlooks, all pasted below.

Regards,
Carl.


>IDW23100
>40:0:1:24:10S105E999:11:00
>SECURITE
>
>HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
>AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>CENTRE PERTH AT 0412UTC 16 MARCH 2001
>
>GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
>
>IMPORTANT INFORMATION
>*  Wind speed refers to the average speed over a 10-minute period. Gusts
>may be
>up to 40 per cent stronger than the average speed.
>*  Wave and swell heights refer to 'significant wave heights' representing the
>average of the highest one third of the waves. The likely maximum wave height
>can be up to twice the significant wave height.
>
>SITUATION
>Tropical Low with central pressure 1002HPA located at 0400UTC
>within 30 nautical miles of
> Latitude  nine decimal nine south [9.9S]
> Longitude one hundred and five decimal eight east  [105.8E]
>moving west at 8 knots.
>
>AREA AFFECTED
>System may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in 18 to 24 hours, causing rough to
>very rough seas, moderate swell and 30/45 knot winds within 60 nautical
>miles of
>centre.
>
>FORECAST
>At 1600UTC 16 March.  10.0 south  104.0 east  1000hPa
>At 0400UTC 17 March.  10.0  south 102.5 east  998hPa
>
>Next warning issued at 1100 UTC 16 March 2001.
>
>WEATHER PERTH

>IDW10900
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
>Issued at 12:05pm WST on Friday the 16th of March 2001
>For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST
>
>Tropical Low
>Location          : near 10S  106E
>                    about 85 kilometres [46 nautical miles]
>                    north northeast of Xmas Island
>Central Pressure  : 1003 hPa
>Recent movement   : west 15 kilometres per hour [ 8 knots ]
>DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
>  next 24 hours   : moderate
>  24-48   hours   : moderate
>  48-72   hours   : moderate
>
>REMARKS - Low currently exists in a moderately sheared enviroment. Convection
>has persisted for 24 hours. Low is likely to move into a region of less shear
>within next 24 hours allowing the system to continue to slowly develop. The
>models suggest the low to continue to move west beyond 24 hours, though
>intensification is still slow.
>
>
>Second Tropical Low
>Location          : near 10S  89E
>                    about 840 kilometres [450 nautical miles]
>                    west northwest of Cocos Island
>Central Pressure  : 1006 hPa
>Recent movement   : west 8 kilomteres per hour [ 4 knots ]
>
>REMARKS - Poorly organised persistent convective cloud associated with
>low. Low
>is forecast to continue to move west outside of region with little if any
>development expected.
>
>
>
>** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of        **
>** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period.                   **
>** LOW = 10-20%   MODERATE = 30-40%   HIGH = 50% or more                   **

>IDW10800
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
>Issued at 12:28pm WST on Friday the 16th of March 2001
>For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST
>
>Tropical Low off in Eastern Arafura Sea
>Location          :near  10S  140E
>                   about 440 kilometres [240 nautical miles]
>                   NE of Nhulunbuy inthe Northern Territory
>Central Pressure  :1008 hPa
>Recent movement   :west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour [10 knots]
>
>DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
>  next 24 hours   : low
>  24-48   hours   : low
>  48-72   hours   : moderate
>
>REMARKS -
>
>** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of        **
>** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period.                   **
>** LOW = 10-20%   MODERATE = 30-40%   HIGH = 50% or more                   **
>
>There are no significant disturbances in evidence at this time within the
>northwestern region.
>The tropical low near 10S 140E in the eastern Arafura Sea is expected to move
>into the Timor Sea region by Monday. There is potential for development by the
>end of the outlook period for a system to the north of the Kimberley,
>though it
>is not expected to impact the coast at this stage.
>

>IDD10610
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Northern Territory Region
>Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
>FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
>Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
>at 1:26 pm CST Friday 16 MARCH 2001
>
>TROPICAL LOW in eastern Arafura Sea...
>   Location........near 10S 140E
>           ........i.e.about 440 km [240 nautical miles] NE of Nhulunbuy
>   Central pressure: 1008 hPa
>   Recent movement : towards the WSW at 18 km/h [10 knots]
>
>DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
>          Next 24h : low
>           24-48 h : low
>           48-72 h : moderate
>
>NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
>cyclone development within each 24 hour period...
>LOW = 10% or less        MODERATE = 20% - 40%        HIGH = 50% or more.
>
>REMARKS
>The low is expected to continue moving steadily westwards and be located
>in the
>Timor Sea by Monday where it may have some potential for development
>towards the
>end of the outlook period.
>
>Another weak low currently in the Timor Sea is also expected to continue
>moving
>west and has only a low potential for development during the outlook period.
>
>DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ants doing a rain dance!!
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 17:13:35 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I saw the ants the other day all leaving town on the back's of the frogs.
They all had goggles on to prevent the dust getting in their eyes. Seriously
though, I never even thought to look at them and the frogs have certainly
been very quiet.
The noisy ones lately have been the crickets and a lot making their way
indoors of late which is a damn nuisance.
I remember reading somewhere once that a cricket's "chirps" increase with
the heat of course, for cooling reasons I think, and this article had a
formula for counting the chirps over a set time and then you could work out
the temperature.
Some heavy showers about at present mainly to the south and a whopping point
2 mm to date with the wind swinging around from the NE all day to the NW and
still sitting on 26C.
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
----- Original Message -----
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 16, 2001 3:13 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Ants doing a rain dance!!


> Hi Bussie and all.
> After you have put Bessie the bus to bed have a look at what your local
ants
> are doing, down here they are all running around doing a decent dance!. A
> walk to the local Leopold primary with the kids this morning and I saw
them
> everywhere and all racing around.,I even found a few upstairs,although a
bit
> of a wish forecast lets hope they are right...haven't heard any frogs
> yet..regards Clyve H.
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Storms - Condobolin area
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5  September 22, 2000
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 18:42:20 +1100
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on Domino/Advance(Release 5.0.5 |September 22, 2000) at
 16/03/2001 06:42:13 PM
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6.30pm 16/03

Storm hit Condobolin, Lake Carg, areas..  lightning hit Zone Substation
causing feeder to drop out.

sitting here waiting for the bomb to hit soon..

Dave
bathurst

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Monsoon flares up again
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 17:59:45 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi everyone</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Looks like the monsoon is happening again. Quite a 
good band into a&nbsp;low becoming more dominant to north of the NE tip of NT. 
Looks like the cluster of storms I thought would develop 24 hrs ago north of the 
Kimberley is being absorbed into the monsoonal rain bands of this 
low.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Couple of other interesting clusters of storms 
farther out to the west in the Indian Ocean also.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ants doing a rain dance!!
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 21:51:46 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all.
Congratulations to the Leopold Ants for their rain dance today,the cold
front has just past through Geelong (2140hrs) with so far 17mm and a wind
gust of 67kph,this is the heaviest rain since October last year!!! regards
Clyve H..
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussie <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 16, 2001 5:13 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ants doing a rain dance!!


> I saw the ants the other day all leaving town on the back's of the frogs.
> They all had goggles on to prevent the dust getting in their eyes.
Seriously
> though, I never even thought to look at them and the frogs have certainly
> been very quiet.
> The noisy ones lately have been the crickets and a lot making their way
> indoors of late which is a damn nuisance.
> I remember reading somewhere once that a cricket's "chirps" increase with
> the heat of course, for cooling reasons I think, and this article had a
> formula for counting the chirps over a set time and then you could work
out
> the temperature.
> Some heavy showers about at present mainly to the south and a whopping
point
> 2 mm to date with the wind swinging around from the NE all day to the NW
and
> still sitting on 26C.
> Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, March 16, 2001 3:13 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: Ants doing a rain dance!!
>
>
> > Hi Bussie and all.
> > After you have put Bessie the bus to bed have a look at what your local
> ants
> > are doing, down here they are all running around doing a decent dance!.
A
> > walk to the local Leopold primary with the kids this morning and I saw
> them
> > everywhere and all racing around.,I even found a few upstairs,although a
> bit
> > of a wish forecast lets hope they are right...haven't heard any frogs
> > yet..regards Clyve H.
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Vorticity near Mt Gambier.
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 22:05:48 +1100
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Hi all.
Some vorticity developing near Mt Gambier at the moment underneath a cold
pool, some nice banding of cloud lines also, looks to be moving east south
east, my pressure here at Leopold reached 999hpa at 2130hrs just ahead of
the cold front,this system is interesting with multiple cloud bands
associated with pre frontal troughs,all at different levels! ....its about
time...regards Clyve H.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 22:36:45 +1100
From: Susan Puddifer <susanpud at healey.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.75 (Macintosh; U; PPC)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ants doing a rain dance!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Susan from Balmain

Re ants and assorted wildlife

I've never had a problem with ants in my house until around 1 month ago - now I
have them everywhere and it seems like we have had a lot of wet weather over
the last month  BTW I've lived in this house for a long long time.

The other thing - re frogs.  I THINK the reason for a seeming lack of frogs in
drier weather is that frogs need a nice supply of water and ponds and a food
source to breed and lay their eggs.  In drier weather the water dries up and
the food source tends to become a bit scarce too.  When it starts to rain, the
ponds will fill up and the food become more available and therefore the females
will lay their eggs. Of course, these eggs need to be fertilized by the male
and males being males, they tend to think of not much besides sex and food.  So
the wily frog, realising that wet weather is approaching, starts to look for
available and willing females who are getting interested in laying eggs and
therefore, sex.

The male frog's method is to call, or croak, to see who is about and hopefully
to attract females to his particular pond.  It is only the male frog who croaks
- or so I have been led to believe.  And once again, males being males, the
male frogs don't like to expend any energy on romantic stuff when there isn't
much chance of a payoff, ie. sex.  So therefore he doesnt call during dry
weather when it is unlikely he will get a bit of a frolic in the pond.

Hope this might explain some of the habits of frogs.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Dean McWhinney" <mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: MELBOURNE SQUALL LINE>?
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 22:52:03 +1100
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Radar lookslike a squall line over port philip bay i have the gif file from
it and the sydney southerly for a few nights ago let me know if you would
like it ok let me know if it was or not ?
************************************************
Dean McWhinney
Year 9 student,ameture weather watcher
and fisherman/sailor


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 08:13:06 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian weather
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

What a wonderful evening in Melbourne & Victoria!!  My pressure dipped
to 1001hPa & I got 17.2mm of rain (highest 1 day rainfall since the 25th
September) - we won't talk about my paltry 27kmh wind gust as it just
doesn't compare from the bottom of this valley.  Some other rainfall
totals which are worthy of mention from our rain / shower & storm
starved state are:
Albury - 41.4
Ballarat - 16.8
Bendigo - 14.2
Mt Hotham - 63.4
Portland - 25.4
Warrnambool - 25.8
Wilsons Prom - 42.4
Stawell - 18

I've linked the radar images of the front for anyone unlucky enough to
have missed them from
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/mar01.htm

The rather lengthy blackout which followed the passage of the front was
a novelty in itself!!

The low that was spotted yesterday afternoon forming to the SW of
Victoria is currently passing through Bass Strait this morning (see
radar page above)

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 21:17:42 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Development of low
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

For those wanting a good example of a developing a low, this is a great 
example. What I find interesting is how you can see the change in wind 
shear on the satellite picture with the lower clouds towards the centre. In 
fact the best way to describe these are the shutter leafs inside the lens 
of a camera. How do you know what the lower clouds are?

The slightly greyer clouds on the satellite pictures indicate lower 
temperatures and hence we assume they are lower in the atmosphere - safely 
a good assumption. The brighter white bands are the higher level clouds 
particularly in the Tasman near Tasmania. No doubt these are where the 
storms are. I also suspect storms will develop along this line but mainly 
in NE NSW later. At 9am, this band consisting of altocumulus and 
castellanus is passing through Sydney.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 09:53:23 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Just a few more photographs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

Just a few more pics from a camera that is playing up. Well this lot is 
from two films and it doesn't make up one. Shutter is not always clicking 
ie not opening.

Oh well I have lost some pictures but that's life.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 10:28:07 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Link to photos  sorry
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Matt just alerted me that I must be drunk or something.

I had not included the link to the photographs...

Well here goes .

http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd.html

Sorry for that and sorry for the incorrect time of the e-mail  I had AM 
instead of PM which essential put it 12 hours behind.

You can tell the storm season is on its way out.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian weather
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 12:24:00 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> What a wonderful evening in Melbourne & Victoria!!  My pressure dipped
> to 1001hPa & I got 17.2mm of rain (highest 1 day rainfall since the 25th
> September) - we won't talk about my paltry 27kmh wind gust as it just
> doesn't compare from the bottom of this valley.  Some other rainfall
> totals which are worthy of mention from our rain / shower & storm
> starved state are:
> Albury - 41.4
> Ballarat - 16.8
> Bendigo - 14.2
> Mt Hotham - 63.4
> Portland - 25.4
> Warrnambool - 25.8
> Wilsons Prom - 42.4
> Stawell - 18
> 
> I've linked the radar images of the front for anyone unlucky enough to
> have missed them from
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/mar01.htm
> 
> The rather lengthy blackout which followed the passage of the front was
> a novelty in itself!!

Surely you speak in jest! Storm-caused blackouts, yes, but Victorian
electricity companies don't need any encouragement from storms to  
do the deed....

> The low that was spotted yesterday afternoon forming to the SW of
> Victoria is currently passing through Bass Strait this morning (see
> radar page above)
> 
> Jane

It looks like most of the precipitation has actually ended up being
on the eastern flank of the low, not quite what I'd expected - the
heaviest falls have been in north-central and north-western Tasmania,
a classic 'humid northerly' signal (90mm at Erriba, and plenty of
other places that cracked the half-century; 37 at Launceston). This
rain will be very welcome - I was in eastern Tasmania a couple of 
weeks ago and quite substantial rivers were completely dry - although
the east and south-east seems to have got totals in the teens, better
than nothing but not an enormous amount of use without follow-up.

The only Victorian falls near 50 seem to have been in the Otways, far
south Gippsland and the north-east highlands, although east Gippsland
may get another round today. 

12mm in central Melbourne. Most of the eastern suburbs did better
than that, with a band of 30+ stretching from Moorabbin to Mt. Dandenong.
There was a bit of local flash flooding on the roads around Eltham but
I suspect that had more to do with leaves in drains than heaviness of
precipitation.

On another tack, it looks like the run of 20+ days will end at 78; 
16.7 with heavy cloud at the moment (12.20), strong south-westerlies,
and it's hard to see it creeping up another 3.3 in the next 3-4 hours.

Blair
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From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Black Ice?
Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 14:33:43 +1100
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Blackheath: 2:30pm, 12C, fresh westerly.

G'day all,

Not long ago we were discussing black ice, black frost etc on this list. I
have a photo on the Australian Severe Weather site that seems to me to be
black ice but I would like others to look at it, (if you have the time) to
confirm this. It was a darkish ice on the road, basically clear really and
very slippery to drive on.

Go the ASW page http://australiasevereweather.com/index.html  then click on
Weather Photography, then go down the left margin until you find snow, click
on page one. There you will find a road/ice/snow shot near Oberon from last
year, its above a red Hyundai Excel photo and a below a Cherry Tree Hill
photo. Other shots there include my house in the snow and Marion and I in
the snow during our heaviest fall last year on May 28.

Thanks folk for your help.



Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au

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Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 16:04:44 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Off topic: Reminder about the footy comp
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Everyone,

Kathy and I just went to remind you all about the football tipping comp,
for those of you in it, you need to make sure you have placed your tips by
the 30th March.

If you have joined yet, and you want to, this is the details:

>
>Comp Number:       7420
>Comp Name:         #Weather Footy Competition
>Password to join:  supercell
>
>
>To join:
>----------------
>1.   Go to http://www.OzTips.com
>
>2.   From the home page, select "I'm new and I want to tip", and setup a 
>user account (if you don't already have one on OzTips.com).
>
>3.   Select "I want to join a Tipping Comp" on the home page, or the 
>"Tipping" tab.
>
>4.   Enter the Comp Number and Password details above.
>
>5.   That's it.  Full instructions on how to tip can be found on the site by 
>clicking on the "Help" tab.

If you have any inquires, you can email Kathy at astrolady99 at netscape.net

Thanks.

Jacob

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From: "Dean McWhinney" <mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm force winds
Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 20:30:34 +1100
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BLOODY STRONG ONES  LOL :) heres the beufort scale of it
Beaufort Wind Scale

 Units in km/h Units in knots Description on Land Description at Sea
CALM 0 0 Smoke rises vertically Sea like a mirror.
LIGHT WINDS 19 km/h or less 10 knots or less Wind felt on face; leaves
rustle; ordinary vanes moved by wind. Small wavelets, ripples formed but do
not break: A glassy appearance maintained.
MODERATE WINDS 20 - 29 km/h 11-16 knots Raises dust and loose paper; small
branches are moved. Small waves - becoming longer; fairly frequent white
horses.
FRESH
WINDS
 30 - 39 km/h 17-21 knots Small trees in leaf begin to sway; crested
waveless form on inland water Moderate waves, taking a more pronounced long
form; many white horses are formed - a chance of some spray
STRONG WINDS 40 - 50 km/h 22-27 knots Large branches in motion; whistling
heard in telephone wires; umbrellas used with difficulty.  Large waves begin
to form; the white foam crests are more extensive with probably some spray
51 - 62 km/h 28-33 knots Whole trees in motion; inconvenience felt when
walking against wind. Sea heaps up and white foam from breaking waves begins
to be blown in streaks along direction of wind.
GALE 63 - 75 km/h 34-40 knots Twigs break off trees; progress generally
impeded. Moderately high waves of greater length; edges of crests begin to
break into spin drift; foam is blown in well marked streaks along the
direction of the wind.
76 - 87 km/h 41-47 knots Slight structural damage occurs -roofing dislodged;
larger branches break off. High waves; dense streaks of foam; crests of
waves begin to topple, tumble and roll over; spray may affect visibility.
STORM 88 - 102 km/h 48-55 knots Seldom experienced inland; trees uprooted;
considerable structural damage. Very high waves with long overhanging
crests; the resulting foam in great patches is blown in dense white streaks;
the surface of the sea takes on a white appearance; the tumbling of the sea
becomes heavy with visibility affected.
103 km/h or more 56 knots plus Very rarely experienced - widespread damage
Exceptionally high waves; small and medium sized ships occasionally lost
from view behind waves; the sea is completely covered with long white
patches of foam; the edges of wave crests are blown into froth.



************************************************
Dean McWhinney
Year 9 student,ameture weather watcher
and fisherman/sailor
Email:mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussie <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: weather list <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 17, 2001 8:13 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Storm force winds


> What are "storm force winds"?
> Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
>
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Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 18:28:44 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Black Ice?
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Yeah, Lindsay.  That looks pretty like what I've always called black ice, 
but then I am no expert on the subject.
My worst experience with black ice came in Ballarat around 1967 or '68 
when a water main had burst and flooded an intersection and then frozen 
solid.  
It was 5:00 am.  I was driving a motorbike and sidecar at about 50 km/h, 
thought the road looked strange and just touched the brakes.  Suddenly my 
vehicle was doing extremely rapid anticlockwise circular gyrations across 
these acres of ice and I had absolutely no control until I reached the 
end of the ice where the right hand wheels gripped first and she started 
to roll over.  I spun madly to the right and commenced a circular waltz 
in the opposite (clockwise) direction but only spun once.  Absolutely 
dizzy and feeling somewhat sick, I turned off the motor and waited for my 
head to stop spinning.  Meanwhile the boys in blue had watched the lot 
and came over to me.  One of them asked me, "Do you usually cross this 
intersection like that?"  The other one joked about booking me for doing 
sixteen U-turns across the double lines!
Since then I have been very careful if the road ahead looked "strange" in 
any way!

Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk 
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672



-----Original Message-----
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 14:33:43 +1100
Subject: aus-wx: Black Ice?

> Blackheath: 2:30pm, 12C, fresh westerly.
> 
> G'day all,
> 
> Not long ago we were discussing black ice, black frost etc on this
> list. I
> have a photo on the Australian Severe Weather site that seems to me to
> be
> black ice but I would like others to look at it, (if you have the time)
> to
> confirm this. It was a darkish ice on the road, basically clear really
> and
> very slippery to drive on.
> 
> Go the ASW page http://australiasevereweather.com/index.html  then
> click on
> Weather Photography, then go down the left margin until you find snow,
> click
> on page one. There you will find a road/ice/snow shot near Oberon from
> last
> year, its above a red Hyundai Excel photo and a below a Cherry Tree
> Hill
> photo. Other shots there include my house in the snow and Marion and I
> in
> the snow during our heaviest fall last year on May 28.
> 
> Thanks folk for your help.
> 
> 
> 
> Lindsay Pearce
> Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> Email: writer at lisp.com.au
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 21:37:31 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: JCU images from Feb
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Evening all,

I'm after the ~0029 JCU coloured IR images from the 20th - 26th February
if anyone has them lying about.

Greatly appreciated if you could send them to me - the site I was using
when down but apparently the alternative site stayed up as far as I'm
aware.

The low that formed SW of Vic last night is now heading ENE, almost
following the coastline....could be an interesting day in SE NSW
tomorrow.

Many thanks,

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 00:02:25 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Dreaming time begins soon for the next season
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

In checking out for something else I came across this link. Unusual chasing 
using an aeroplane but still good structure observed.....

http://washington.uwc.edu/khoward/air_chase.htm

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: "Lightning does strike twice"
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 00:19:59 +1100
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Hi all.
The nice looking low just south of Gabo Is has a curious signature and
similarity to the system that devastated the Sydney Hobart yacht race a
couple of years ago, a careful scrutiny also shows a very small clear
central area almost like a weak eye.regards Clyve Herbert.....

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Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 00:17:28 -0600
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Iain T. Johnstone" <johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Black Ice?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi Lindsay,

I couldn't get the full size photo to open, so I can only comment on the 
basis of the thumbnail. If the shiny parts were indeed ice, then yes - that 
is black ice. The real danger with black ice is when the roads are 
generally wet anyway. Then the whole surface just appears wet and you can't 
see the icy bits. Sometimes here in the American midwest the ice gets so 
bad that you basically cannot drive, no matter how careful you are. Some 
people inevitably try though - this past December I drove from Madison to 
Chicago one day after a bad snow/ice storm and counted 35 cars that had 
slid off the road the previous night.

Cheers,
Tom

At 09:33 PM 3/16/01, you wrote:
>Blackheath: 2:30pm, 12C, fresh westerly.
>
>G'day all,
>
>Not long ago we were discussing black ice, black frost etc on this list. I
>have a photo on the Australian Severe Weather site that seems to me to be
>black ice but I would like others to look at it, (if you have the time) to
>confirm this. It was a darkish ice on the road, basically clear really and
>very slippery to drive on.
>
>Go the ASW page http://australiasevereweather.com/index.html  then click on
>Weather Photography, then go down the left margin until you find snow, click
>on page one. There you will find a road/ice/snow shot near Oberon from last
>year, its above a red Hyundai Excel photo and a below a Cherry Tree Hill
>photo. Other shots there include my house in the snow and Marion and I in
>the snow during our heaviest fall last year on May 28.
>
>Thanks folk for your help.
>
>
>
>Lindsay Pearce
>Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
>Email: writer at lisp.com.au
>
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</x-flowed>
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: JCU images from Feb
Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 21:25:47 GMT
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Jane, I have them and will email them to you shortly.

Laurier


On Sat, 17 Mar 2001 21:37:31 +1100, Jane ONeill
<cadence at stormchasers.au.com> wrote:

>Evening all,
>
>I'm after the ~0029 JCU coloured IR images from the 20th - 26th February
>if anyone has them lying about.
>
>Greatly appreciated if you could send them to me - the site I was using
>when down but apparently the alternative site stayed up as far as I'm
>aware.
>
>The low that formed SW of Vic last night is now heading ENE, almost
>following the coastline....could be an interesting day in SE NSW
>tomorrow.
>
>Many thanks,
>
>Jane
>
>--------------------------------
>Jane ONeill - Melbourne
>cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
>Melbourne Storm Chasers
>http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
>ASWA - Victoria
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>--------------------------------
>
>
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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Black Ice?
Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 21:39:12 GMT
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Hi Lindsay and all

I think for practical purposes, black ice can be taken as any *water*
that has frozen on the road. Because frozen water on a black or dark
surface is nearly invisible, it is one of the biggest hazzards to
driving. However, it should be distinguished from compacted snow. If
enough vehicles drive over a layer of snow at close to freezing level,
it will compact, partly melt, and then refreeze. It still retains some
of its granular structure, however, so offers a little more traction
than black ice, and also retains its opacity -- black ice is clear,
which is why it can't be seen. I can't make out enough detail in the
road surface in your photo to say which it is -- it is shiny, but that
is a function of the position of the sun relative to the photographer.

The differences in traction become greater as it becomes colder. I've
driven on compacted snow in Canada, and it was not dissimilar to
driving on gravel, with reasonable traction and predictable slide.
However, even when it gets very cold, black ice is still slippery,
though not as skiddy as when it is closer to zero. The lowest traction
levels are when the ice develops a thin film of water on top, as would
happen when the road was below zero and the air above zero,
encouraging the upper surface of the ice to melt. 

Laurier

>At 09:33 PM 3/16/01, Lindsay wrote:
>>Blackheath: 2:30pm, 12C, fresh westerly.
>>
>>G'day all,
>>
>>Not long ago we were discussing black ice, black frost etc on this list. I
>>have a photo on the Australian Severe Weather site that seems to me to be
>>black ice but I would like others to look at it, (if you have the time) to
>>confirm this. It was a darkish ice on the road, basically clear really and
>>very slippery to drive on.
>>
>>Go the ASW page http://australiasevereweather.com/index.html  then click on
>>Weather Photography, then go down the left margin until you find snow, click
>>on page one. There you will find a road/ice/snow shot near Oberon from last
>>year, its above a red Hyundai Excel photo and a below a Cherry Tree Hill
>>photo. Other shots there include my house in the snow and Marion and I in
>>the snow during our heaviest fall last year on May 28.
>>
>>Thanks folk for your help.
>>
>>
>>
>>Lindsay Pearce
>>Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
>>Email: writer at lisp.com.au
>>
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>>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>>  message.
>>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 12:04:30 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Anniversary hailstorm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

When writing out the date 18th March 2001, it clicked that it was the 
anniversary of the 1990 Sydney hailstorm. Massive hailstones to at least 
9cm bombarded the SW suburbs of Sydney. Cost of this hailstorm up to that 
point registered the most costly thunderstorm at least in New South Wales. 
Obviously, a supercell was responsible.

Anthony and I last night via phone talked about how we were touched by the 
affects of particular natural disasters. Can anyone imagine what they would 
feel like if hail punctured their roof tiles and rain water got in and 
wrecked the whole house?

I suppose that was not as much a problem in 1990 as the April 14th 1999 
hailstorm. But I have been sent e-mails from the victims of this particular 
event and they certainly remember the date....

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
X-Apparently-From: <njsykes at yahoo.com>
From: "Nick Sykes" <njsykes at yahoo.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Rain Event
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 13:22:09 +1100
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Could this be the Autumn break??

The Tuesday/Wednesday period looks to be the start of the next major weather
system to effect the SE of Australia.

Most of the models are going for a low pressure system to form to the west
of Tasmania around Tuesday.

Looking at the latest satellite image you can see an impressive pool of cold
air behind a frontin the Southern Ocean.

 http://www.crosswinds.net/~vicstorms/cold.jpg

This cold air is progged to move NE into the warmer waters to the south of
Australia. Once the cold air moves into this region cyclogenisis should
occur (formation of a low pressure system. The area south of Australia looks
primmed for this to occur, with above avergae sea surface temperatures and
cold air. In this instance the area favoured for the low to form is to the W
of Tasmania.

The exact timing and positioning of the low is uncertain but it does look
like one will form. All the models agree with the exception of NGP which
just has a front moving through. I would tend to disagree with this given
the favourable conditions for low formation.

The weather associated with this low pressure system is a bit uncertain at
this stage. Given that the low is forecasted to be slow moving once it
forms, heavy falls of rain are possible. But note, this is very dependant on
where the low falls as the wind flows over SE Australia in these situations
can greatly effect rainfall patterns. Where and how much rain will become
more clear as the event nears.

Cold air thunderstroms are also a possibility with this system, although
these are most likely to occur on the western flank of the low, with the
best area looking like been SE and Central SA.

Nick Sykes


_________________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get your free  at yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com

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From: "Geelong Weather Services" <gws at pipeline.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian wind and storms
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 13:32:39 +1100
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Hello all,
It's been a long time since I've had anything worthwhile to report, but a
top windspeed of 130 kph was recorded at Lovely Banks (10 km NE of Geelong
CBD)at 11.30 pm on Friday, 16th, together with gusts up to 118 kph at Point
Lonsdale just earlier.  The storms associated with the cold front brought
between 12 and 26 mm rain across the Geelong region, and quite a bit of
structural damage was caused at the exposed Clifton Springs on the S shore
of Corio Bay. Naturally the "Sunday Advertiser" headlined it as a
"mini-tornado" despite my best efforts to nip it in the bud before
publication.
Lindsay Smail.

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From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain Event
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 13:46:46 +1030
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<x-flowed>
Rain periods and continual gale forced winds are now in the forecast for 
Adelaide from late Tuesday, into Wednesday with an easing trend on Thursday. 
  Seeing as BOM has picked SA and NW Vic as being the most likely places for 
above average rainfall for April - June due to increased NW cloudbands I'd 
say we have a good chance for heavy rainfall this week.  This all depends on 
the positioning of the low which at the moment seems very uncertain but with 
gale forced winds in the forecast now maybe the low will be slightly further 
north than first thought.  There is definately a good cold air pool hovering 
in the southern ocean behind that front you mentioned Nick at the moment.  
Let's hope for the best, some stormy days and nights could be on the way for 
Adelaide and SA and Vic and Tas!



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Black Ice?
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 14:53:24 +1100
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Hi Laurier Phil, Iain and everyone,

Thanks for that, some interesting thoughts there. Yes, some good points
Laurier about compacted snow and the light reflection off the road. I
wondered if it could have been snow that had melted during the day (the
usual situation in our region) and then re-froze the next night but that was
the case with the snow-melt on the road near Mount Trickett (There's two or
so houses there just before the decent to Jenolan Caves - see this photo
also I think on ASW page) and that snow was much "crustier" than the ice in
the photo we are speaking of. There was definitely ice there on that corner
and some of it seemed quite clear to look at. That shot was taken a few
kilometres from Oberon on the 28th of May, 2000 during the coldest of our
snow outbreaks last year but before the coldest air had actually arrived. A
few folk (locals) have told me it is black ice, however I'm unsure.

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au or snowfall at optusnet.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 18, 2001 8:39 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Black Ice?


> Hi Lindsay and all
>
> I think for practical purposes, black ice can be taken as any *water*
> that has frozen on the road. Because frozen water on a black or dark
> surface is nearly invisible, it is one of the biggest hazzards to
> driving. However, it should be distinguished from compacted snow. If
> enough vehicles drive over a layer of snow at close to freezing level,
> it will compact, partly melt, and then refreeze. It still retains some
> of its granular structure, however, so offers a little more traction
> than black ice, and also retains its opacity -- black ice is clear,
> which is why it can't be seen. I can't make out enough detail in the
> road surface in your photo to say which it is -- it is shiny, but that
> is a function of the position of the sun relative to the photographer.
>
> The differences in traction become greater as it becomes colder. I've
> driven on compacted snow in Canada, and it was not dissimilar to
> driving on gravel, with reasonable traction and predictable slide.
> However, even when it gets very cold, black ice is still slippery,
> though not as skiddy as when it is closer to zero. The lowest traction
> levels are when the ice develops a thin film of water on top, as would
> happen when the road was below zero and the air above zero,
> encouraging the upper surface of the ice to melt.
>
> Laurier
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Fw: Chase Report 25th-28th Jan 2001
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 15:39:51 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3500" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello everyone,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I've been busy over the last week or so putting 
together some chase reports from some chases I did in January.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Here is the URL to one of them:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/26_01_01.htm">http://www.stormchasers.au.com/26_01_01.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>There are a few more on the way but the web 
mistress and I are still working on some details for them.&nbsp; And speaking of 
the web mistress.....THANKYOU so much for putting these up fr me.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Enjoy.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Andrew McDonald</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>(Macca - MSC)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian wind and storms
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 15:39:07 +1100
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Lindsay and all,

I ventured down to Wonthaggi in S Gippsland on Friday night and stayed with
Tony Middleton in the hope that Saturday would provide to be a lot more
interesting down S than it would in Melbourne.  Boy was I right.  At 4:50am
Saturday morning the front hit with a frieght train roar of wind and rain
and this continued unabated for 30 minutes.  The low which developed in Bass
Strait moved E throughout the morning and Tony, Mel and I headed to a
headland at Kilcunda where during a squall we recorded a wind gust of
77km/h.  Standing outside in the rain and gale force wind (with a measured
wind chill of -1.8 at times) wasn't overly pleasant but was damn fun at the
time.  Tony suggested that we head back to his place to dry off and then
head further S to Cape Liptrap in the hope of stronger winds.
Well.....strong is an understatement.  WHOA!!!!  Our first venture down to
the lighthouse with the Kestral 3000 resulted in sustained winds of 85km/h
and a gust of 107.8km/h!!!!!  Small pebbles were blowing around freely in
the wind and the coastal shrubbery was taking a battering.  The Kestral then
packed it in momentarily.  Tony and I were standing in the wind enjoying the
needle stings of each droplet of water and next thing we know....CHASER
CONVERGENCE!!!!  Robert Goler turned up out of the blue.  The three of us
spent another hour "playing" in the wind and rain and sand and rocks and
grit that was being blown horizontally by the storm force winds.  The
Kestral was brought out again later on and WHOA again!!!  Tony recorded
sustained winds of 105km/h and a maximum gust of 115km/h!!!!!!  The Kestral
then packed it in again for the last time but we were sure that stronger
gusts than the 115km/h would've occurred - it was phenomenal.  It was
difficult to walk into the wind and standing still was also a problem as you
were regularly forced backwards.  Given the force of winds yesterday and
then thinking that that speed is in the top end of F0 tornado rating I dread
to think what a strong F1 would be like let alone an F5.

Thanks to Tony and Mel for putting me up for the night.

Andrew McDonald
(Macca - MSC)



----- Original Message -----
From: Geelong Weather Services <gws at pipeline.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 18, 2001 1:32 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian wind and storms


> Hello all,
> It's been a long time since I've had anything worthwhile to report, but a
> top windspeed of 130 kph was recorded at Lovely Banks (10 km NE of Geelong
> CBD)at 11.30 pm on Friday, 16th, together with gusts up to 118 kph at
Point
> Lonsdale just earlier.  The storms associated with the cold front brought
> between 12 and 26 mm rain across the Geelong region, and quite a bit of
> structural damage was caused at the exposed Clifton Springs on the S shore
> of Corio Bay. Naturally the "Sunday Advertiser" headlined it as a
> "mini-tornado" despite my best efforts to nip it in the bud before
> publication.
> Lindsay Smail.
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian wind and storms
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 07:35:32 GMT
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Wilsons Prom recorded a top gust on Saturday of 132km/h at noon, with
a mean speed at that time of 91. Kingfish B oil rig offshore from Sale
had 109km/h at 15.40, which is over open water with no venturi effects
from the local topography to increase the speed. So your Kestral was
probably about right -- and that's at hand height, not the standard
10m!

Laurier


On Sun, 18 Mar 2001 15:39:07 +1100, "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
wrote:

>Lindsay and all,
>
>I ventured down to Wonthaggi in S Gippsland on Friday night and stayed with
>Tony Middleton in the hope that Saturday would provide to be a lot more
>interesting down S than it would in Melbourne.  Boy was I right.  At 4:50am
>Saturday morning the front hit with a frieght train roar of wind and rain
>and this continued unabated for 30 minutes.  The low which developed in Bass
>Strait moved E throughout the morning and Tony, Mel and I headed to a
>headland at Kilcunda where during a squall we recorded a wind gust of
>77km/h.  Standing outside in the rain and gale force wind (with a measured
>wind chill of -1.8 at times) wasn't overly pleasant but was damn fun at the
>time.  Tony suggested that we head back to his place to dry off and then
>head further S to Cape Liptrap in the hope of stronger winds.
>Well.....strong is an understatement.  WHOA!!!!  Our first venture down to
>the lighthouse with the Kestral 3000 resulted in sustained winds of 85km/h
>and a gust of 107.8km/h!!!!!  Small pebbles were blowing around freely in
>the wind and the coastal shrubbery was taking a battering.  The Kestral then
>packed it in momentarily.  Tony and I were standing in the wind enjoying the
>needle stings of each droplet of water and next thing we know....CHASER
>CONVERGENCE!!!!  Robert Goler turned up out of the blue.  The three of us
>spent another hour "playing" in the wind and rain and sand and rocks and
>grit that was being blown horizontally by the storm force winds.  The
>Kestral was brought out again later on and WHOA again!!!  Tony recorded
>sustained winds of 105km/h and a maximum gust of 115km/h!!!!!!  The Kestral
>then packed it in again for the last time but we were sure that stronger
>gusts than the 115km/h would've occurred - it was phenomenal.  It was
>difficult to walk into the wind and standing still was also a problem as you
>were regularly forced backwards.  Given the force of winds yesterday and
>then thinking that that speed is in the top end of F0 tornado rating I dread
>to think what a strong F1 would be like let alone an F5.
>
>Thanks to Tony and Mel for putting me up for the night.
>
>Andrew McDonald
>(Macca - MSC)
>
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Geelong Weather Services <gws at pipeline.com.au>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Sunday, March 18, 2001 1:32 PM
>Subject: aus-wx: Victorian wind and storms
>
>
>> Hello all,
>> It's been a long time since I've had anything worthwhile to report, but a
>> top windspeed of 130 kph was recorded at Lovely Banks (10 km NE of Geelong
>> CBD)at 11.30 pm on Friday, 16th, together with gusts up to 118 kph at
>Point
>> Lonsdale just earlier.  The storms associated with the cold front brought
>> between 12 and 26 mm rain across the Geelong region, and quite a bit of
>> structural damage was caused at the exposed Clifton Springs on the S shore
>> of Corio Bay. Naturally the "Sunday Advertiser" headlined it as a
>> "mini-tornado" despite my best efforts to nip it in the bud before
>> publication.
>> Lindsay Smail.
>>
>>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>>  message.
>>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather-Approval" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: BNE - Small Storms to the North of,
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 19:59:59 +1000
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Hello All,

It has been rather hot and muggy in Brisbane today.  (And, as I write, still
is.)  Had some lovely small storm cells to the North (and West) of Brisbane
this afternoon.  Not much lightning where I was.  There was some
intermittent, but impressive, ground strokes towards Caboolture and
Redcliffe.  The way the lights dipped I would say the network coped a few
good beltings.

I took a few "cloud" pictures with the SLR.  I was bracketing a nice "cloud"
shot, when - s**h, there was a lightning stroke to clear air.  Missed it
completely - like about 2 seconds too late.  This one appeared to shoot out
of the top of the cloud up into space.  As I was looking up on a steep angle
(round 75 degrees), and through the lens of the SLR, it was hard to gauge
how "high" the lightning stroke went.  Maybe not very high at all.  The
cloud bank was rising rather dynamically.  It was really boiling upwards.  A
pius cap kept appearing.  Then slithered down the side of the updraft before
another pius cap reappeared on top.

During the course of the afternoon I have spotted at least 5 different cells
just from the back veranda.  I would assume that the locals are out having a
ball.



Regards,

Anthony Spierings
as029 at bigpond.net.au



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.2.32.127]
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BNE - Small Storms to the North of,
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 21:42:46 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 18 Mar 2001 10:42:46.0966 (UTC) FILETIME=[2BB6BD60:01C0AF98]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi!
Well there is currently (9.36pm EDT) the most amazing lightning show I've 
seen in a while. About 80-100km east of ballina there is a couple of very 
impressive looking cells (nice fresh updrafts still look to be popping up) 
with lighting clearing the cloud and going into the sky!! I have counted 
close to 6 flashes per second in different regions of the cells!!!! It's 
absolutley awsome and I don't know how I'm going to sleep tonight! Hope you 
Brisbane guys all got something decent today/tonight!
Cya!


Dave Ellem
Storm Chaser From Wollongbar,
Northern Rivers,
NE NSW


>From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: "Aussie-Weather-Approval" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: BNE - Small Storms to the North of,
>Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 19:59:59 +1000
>
>
>Hello All,
>
>It has been rather hot and muggy in Brisbane today.  (And, as I write, 
>still
>is.)  Had some lovely small storm cells to the North (and West) of Brisbane
>this afternoon.  Not much lightning where I was.  There was some
>intermittent, but impressive, ground strokes towards Caboolture and
>Redcliffe.  The way the lights dipped I would say the network coped a few
>good beltings.
>
>I took a few "cloud" pictures with the SLR.  I was bracketing a nice 
>"cloud"
>shot, when - s**h, there was a lightning stroke to clear air.  Missed it
>completely - like about 2 seconds too late.  This one appeared to shoot out
>of the top of the cloud up into space.  As I was looking up on a steep 
>angle
>(round 75 degrees), and through the lens of the SLR, it was hard to gauge
>how "high" the lightning stroke went.  Maybe not very high at all.  The
>cloud bank was rising rather dynamically.  It was really boiling upwards.  
>A
>pius cap kept appearing.  Then slithered down the side of the updraft 
>before
>another pius cap reappeared on top.
>
>During the course of the afternoon I have spotted at least 5 different 
>cells
>just from the back veranda.  I would assume that the locals are out having 
>a
>ball.
>
>
>
>Regards,
>
>Anthony Spierings
>as029 at bigpond.net.au
>
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------



_________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Sender: bayns at mail.broad.net.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 21:36:36 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham <bayns at broad.net.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Storms off NSW QLD border
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

on the gold coast from about 7pm onwards we had a excellent cell a fair
distance off the coast. there were also the couple that were off
ballina/byron that i didn't get a good look at due to low level crap:(
but this one i saw was due east and moving east. i had a glorius anvil
being lit up every 5 seconds or so for well over an hour. an over shooting
top came and went several times in its journey over the ocean.
unfortunately the cloud has filled with shit again and i can't see jack.
looking forward to more. only used half a film so mayeb later in the week
cyas


At 09:42 PM 18/03/01 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi!
>Well there is currently (9.36pm EDT) the most amazing lightning show I've 
>seen in a while. About 80-100km east of ballina there is a couple of very 
>impressive looking cells (nice fresh updrafts still look to be popping up) 
>with lighting clearing the cloud and going into the sky!! I have counted 
>close to 6 flashes per second in different regions of the cells!!!! It's 
>absolutley awsome and I don't know how I'm going to sleep tonight! Hope you 
>Brisbane guys all got something decent today/tonight!
>Cya!
>
>
>Dave Ellem
>Storm Chaser From Wollongbar,
>Northern Rivers,
>NE NSW
>
>
>>From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
>>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>>To: "Aussie-Weather-Approval" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>>Subject: aus-wx: BNE - Small Storms to the North of,
>>Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 19:59:59 +1000
>>
>>
>>Hello All,
>>
>>It has been rather hot and muggy in Brisbane today.  (And, as I write, 
>>still
>>is.)  Had some lovely small storm cells to the North (and West) of Brisbane
>>this afternoon.  Not much lightning where I was.  There was some
>>intermittent, but impressive, ground strokes towards Caboolture and
>>Redcliffe.  The way the lights dipped I would say the network coped a few
>>good beltings.
>>
>>I took a few "cloud" pictures with the SLR.  I was bracketing a nice 
>>"cloud"
>>shot, when - s**h, there was a lightning stroke to clear air.  Missed it
>>completely - like about 2 seconds too late.  This one appeared to shoot out
>>of the top of the cloud up into space.  As I was looking up on a steep 
>>angle
>>(round 75 degrees), and through the lens of the SLR, it was hard to gauge
>>how "high" the lightning stroke went.  Maybe not very high at all.  The
>>cloud bank was rising rather dynamically.  It was really boiling upwards.  
>>A
>>pius cap kept appearing.  Then slithered down the side of the updraft 
>>before
>>another pius cap reappeared on top.
>>
>>During the course of the afternoon I have spotted at least 5 different 
>>cells
>>just from the back veranda.  I would assume that the locals are out having 
>>a
>>ball.
>>
>>
>>
>>Regards,
>>
>>Anthony Spierings
>>as029 at bigpond.net.au
>>
>>
>>
>>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>>  message.
>>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 22:40:31 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Abigail & The Duck
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Evening all,

With Laurier's help (thanks Laurier!!!!) I've compiled a page of images
of the history of Abigail & The Duck - I have now managed to get the JCU
IR coloured images & MSL's from 20th Feb till The Duck's landfall on 9th
March.
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/abigail-duck.htm

I'll continue to add to it over the next couple of weeks as I find
images & manage to upload them.

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 21:46:36 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Great Redcliffe Storms & Coming Days (was) Re: aus-wx: BNE - Small 
 Storms to the North of,
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

I had been watching the development to the north for most of the day,
and was actually dragged out by some brief Cb's to my south.  I then
looked north...and looked south, and thought if I was going to get
anything decent, I'd have to cross the river - so I did.  I ended up in
Redcliffe - and drove around in circles on the northern half of the
peninsula as storm after storm after storm moved over!  I didn't see
anything awesome...but it was still fantastic!  Each storm brought with
it very heavy rain, and some fantastic CG's with loud crack/booming
thunder!  They were coming out of clear air on the sides, and the
updrafts as the storm moved out to sea were fantastic!  A lot of low
level vorticity seemed present, I was half expecting a waterspout
underneath some of the bases.

The last storm was probably the best, and IMO bordered on the severe
category.  It produced a weak guster, but it had a nasty look to it,
with a green-yellow tinge, I knew it was going to be better than the
others - and it was!  With rain rates comparable to those of March 9, it
was TORRENTIAL, and there were strong winds associated with it that
brought down some sizable branches near Deception Bay.  I was driving in
single file at about 30-40km/h, and everyone was following each other,
not being able to pull over or anything.  But every so often a burst of
'extra-strong' winds would actually come through and visibility went to
nil!  I then ended up having to get onto the Bruce Hwy, thinking it
would be fun to try and merge in near zero visibility - I was perhaps
fortunate that the Bruce Hwy was brought to a standstill by the storm!

Topped off with a great sunset, and a nice lightning show to the north
(and more storms out to sea to the SE).

Currently 25/24 here - but very dry at Toowoomba/Oakey with DP's 9-11C. 
Lots of 21-23C DP's along the coast though, and also low 20's in some of
the hinterland.  The trough is very close and we might see it taking a
visit to the ocean o'night (the main convergence area is there).  But we
should see E-NE winds return tomorrow though, but the better activity
could still be confined more to the north of Brisbane.

I think though that a weak trough will persist in the area, and drift
slowly westwards over the next couple of days, which will be good for
us!  The BoM have forecasted TS right through until Thursday.  Wow this
has been a good month so far!

Just got to hope that cloud over SA and NT visits NSW and not QLD!

Very Happy Chaser
AC

Anthony Spierings wrote:
> 
> Hello All,
> 
> It has been rather hot and muggy in Brisbane today.  (And, as I write, still
> is.)  Had some lovely small storm cells to the North (and West) of Brisbane
> this afternoon.  Not much lightning where I was.  There was some
> intermittent, but impressive, ground strokes towards Caboolture and
> Redcliffe.  The way the lights dipped I would say the network coped a few
> good beltings.
> 
> I took a few "cloud" pictures with the SLR.  I was bracketing a nice "cloud"
> shot, when - s**h, there was a lightning stroke to clear air.  Missed it
> completely - like about 2 seconds too late.  This one appeared to shoot out
> of the top of the cloud up into space.  As I was looking up on a steep angle
> (round 75 degrees), and through the lens of the SLR, it was hard to gauge
> how "high" the lightning stroke went.  Maybe not very high at all.  The
> cloud bank was rising rather dynamically.  It was really boiling upwards.  A
> pius cap kept appearing.  Then slithered down the side of the updraft before
> another pius cap reappeared on top.
> 
> During the course of the afternoon I have spotted at least 5 different cells
> just from the back veranda.  I would assume that the locals are out having a
> ball.
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Anthony Spierings
> as029 at bigpond.net.au
> 
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 22:19:51 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms off NSW QLD border
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Steve,

I have lightning to my SE, 1-2flashes/second - very nice, I can't see
the actual storm, just the sky being lit up.  Shame I don't have a good
view to the SE, and also a shame I can't stay up and watch it for long!

AC

steve baynham wrote:
> 
> on the gold coast from about 7pm onwards we had a excellent cell a fair
> distance off the coast. there were also the couple that were off
> ballina/byron that i didn't get a good look at due to low level crap:(
> but this one i saw was due east and moving east. i had a glorius anvil
> being lit up every 5 seconds or so for well over an hour. an over shooting
> top came and went several times in its journey over the ocean.
> unfortunately the cloud has filled with shit again and i can't see jack.
> looking forward to more. only used half a film so mayeb later in the week
> cyas
> 
> At 09:42 PM 18/03/01 +1100, you wrote:
> >Hi!
> >Well there is currently (9.36pm EDT) the most amazing lightning show I've
> >seen in a while. About 80-100km east of ballina there is a couple of very
> >impressive looking cells (nice fresh updrafts still look to be popping up)
> >with lighting clearing the cloud and going into the sky!! I have counted
> >close to 6 flashes per second in different regions of the cells!!!! It's
> >absolutley awsome and I don't know how I'm going to sleep tonight! Hope you
> >Brisbane guys all got something decent today/tonight!
> >Cya!
> >
> >
> >Dave Ellem
> >Storm Chaser From Wollongbar,
> >Northern Rivers,
> >NE NSW
> >
> >
> >>From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
> >>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >>To: "Aussie-Weather-Approval" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >>Subject: aus-wx: BNE - Small Storms to the North of,
> >>Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 19:59:59 +1000
> >>
> >>
> >>Hello All,
> >>
> >>It has been rather hot and muggy in Brisbane today.  (And, as I write,
> >>still
> >>is.)  Had some lovely small storm cells to the North (and West) of Brisbane
> >>this afternoon.  Not much lightning where I was.  There was some
> >>intermittent, but impressive, ground strokes towards Caboolture and
> >>Redcliffe.  The way the lights dipped I would say the network coped a few
> >>good beltings.
> >>
> >>I took a few "cloud" pictures with the SLR.  I was bracketing a nice
> >>"cloud"
> >>shot, when - s**h, there was a lightning stroke to clear air.  Missed it
> >>completely - like about 2 seconds too late.  This one appeared to shoot out
> >>of the top of the cloud up into space.  As I was looking up on a steep
> >>angle
> >>(round 75 degrees), and through the lens of the SLR, it was hard to gauge
> >>how "high" the lightning stroke went.  Maybe not very high at all.  The
> >>cloud bank was rising rather dynamically.  It was really boiling upwards.
> >>A
> >>pius cap kept appearing.  Then slithered down the side of the updraft
> >>before
> >>another pius cap reappeared on top.
> >>
> >>During the course of the afternoon I have spotted at least 5 different
> >>cells
> >>just from the back veranda.  I would assume that the locals are out having
> >>a
> >>ball.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>Regards,
> >>
> >>Anthony Spierings
> >>as029 at bigpond.net.au
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >>  message.
> >>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >_________________________________________________________________________
> >Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 03:38:25 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Abigail & The Duck
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Jane and All.

>Evening all,
>
>With Laurier's help (thanks Laurier!!!!) I've compiled a page of images
>of the history of Abigail & The Duck - I have now managed to get the JCU
>IR coloured images & MSL's from 20th Feb till The Duck's landfall on 9th
>March.
>http://www.stormchasers.au.com/abigail-duck.htm
>
>I'll continue to add to it over the next couple of weeks as I find
>images & manage to upload them.
>
>Jane
<snip>

I tried to load your page at the URL above, but it crashed my browser :(

Quite a few pages here and there do that (ancient 10 year old Mac probably
doesn't help that much!).

I have archived my stuff on the The Duck here:
http://cyclones.www9.50megs.com/2001/SubTCDonald.html you will find the 6
day enhanced IR Satpic loop I posted here some time back, along with an
hourly loop that shows the eye, and 4 extended radar loops both broad and
local - these are all quite long loops and may take a while to load. I
think it is important that stuff on this unusual system be available
somewhere.

BTW Jane, I meant to get back to you on the name issue but have simply been
too busy - I really don't mind if we call it Daffy, Donald, or just The
Duck, so long as we all know which system we are talking about - I have
left it as Donald for now but can change the archive reference easily
enough to suit whatever may be agreed upon.

You will find an Abigail Loop here:
http://cyclones.www9.50megs.com/2001/TCAbigail.html

And loops for other Feb cyclones:
TC Winsome: http://cyclones.www9.50megs.com/2001/TCWinsome.html
TC Vincent: http://cyclones.www9.50megs.com/2001/TCVincent.html
TC Wylva: http://cyclones.www9.50megs.com/2001/TCWylva.html

We may see more tropical activity in a few days if the wind shear drops a
little - the satpics show lots of streaking, which is not good for TC
development.

Regards,
Carl.



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 06:36:28 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Abigail & The Duck
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Carl, Jane and all,

QLD ASWA has called it "Donald" - hope you didn't mind Carl :)  But I
thought we had to go with the QLD name :-)  So our discussion at the
meeting on Saturday (which is a shame you couldn't come to join in
Carl!) was about "Sub Tropical Cyclone Donald."

AC

Carl Smith wrote:
<snip>
> BTW Jane, I meant to get back to you on the name issue but have simply been
> too busy - I really don't mind if we call it Daffy, Donald, or just The
> Duck, so long as we all know which system we are talking about - I have
> left it as Donald for now but can change the archive reference easily
> enough to suit whatever may be agreed upon.

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: Great Redcliffe Storms & Coming Days (was) Re: aus-wx: BNE - Small Storms to the North of,
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 07:15:59 +1000
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>The last storm was probably the best, and IMO bordered on the severe
>category.  It produced a weak guster, but it had a nasty look to it,
>with a green-yellow tinge, I knew it was going to be better than the
>others - and it was!  With rain rates comparable to those of March 9, it
>was TORRENTIAL, and there were strong winds associated with it that
>brought down some sizable branches near Deception Bay.  I was driving in
>single file at about 30-40km/h, and everyone was following each other,
>not being able to pull over or anything.  But every so often a burst of
>'extra-strong' winds would actually come through and visibility went to
>nil!  I then ended up having to get onto the Bruce Hwy, thinking it
>would be fun to try and merge in near zero visibility - I was perhaps
>fortunate that the Bruce Hwy was brought to a standstill by the storm!

Did you notice any shelf or wall clouds? I think I may have seen one on that
storm, it was hard to tell though because of trees in the way.

David

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Abigail & The Duck
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 08:10:14 +1100
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Hi Carl, Anthony & all,

I was going with Blair's "if it looks like a duck, sounds like a duck, walks
like a duck, then it must be a duck" scenario...therefore in Victoria it
became both "The Duck"  & "Daffy" - and was presented at the Vic ASWA
meeting as "Abigail & The Duck - A Tale of Two Lows".

I think anything mentioning Donald, Daffy, The Duck can be presumed to
pertain to this particular low pressure system.

Jane
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------

Hi Carl, Jane and all,

QLD ASWA has called it "Donald" - hope you didn't mind Carl :)  But I
thought we had to go with the QLD name :-)  So our discussion at the
meeting on Saturday (which is a shame you couldn't come to join in
Carl!) was about "Sub Tropical Cyclone Donald."

AC

Carl Smith wrote:
<snip>
> BTW Jane, I meant to get back to you on the name issue but have simply
been
> too busy - I really don't mind if we call it Daffy, Donald, or just The
> Duck, so long as we all know which system we are talking about - I have
> left it as Donald for now but can change the archive reference easily
> enough to suit whatever may be agreed upon.

--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: BNE - Small Storms to the North of,
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 07:13:30 +1000
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I was underneath these storms, they were pretty good. The third storm that
came over my position looked to have a shelf(?) cloud formation!

Daivd

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Anthony
Spierings
Sent: Sunday, 18 March 2001 8:00 PM
To: Aussie-Weather-Approval
Subject: aus-wx: BNE - Small Storms to the North of,



Hello All,

It has been rather hot and muggy in Brisbane today.  (And, as I write, still
is.)  Had some lovely small storm cells to the North (and West) of Brisbane
this afternoon.  Not much lightning where I was.  There was some
intermittent, but impressive, ground strokes towards Caboolture and
Redcliffe.  The way the lights dipped I would say the network coped a few
good beltings.

I took a few "cloud" pictures with the SLR.  I was bracketing a nice "cloud"
shot, when - s**h, there was a lightning stroke to clear air.  Missed it
completely - like about 2 seconds too late.  This one appeared to shoot out
of the top of the cloud up into space.  As I was looking up on a steep angle
(round 75 degrees), and through the lens of the SLR, it was hard to gauge
how "high" the lightning stroke went.  Maybe not very high at all.  The
cloud bank was rising rather dynamically.  It was really boiling upwards.  A
pius cap kept appearing.  Then slithered down the side of the updraft before
another pius cap reappeared on top.

During the course of the afternoon I have spotted at least 5 different cells
just from the back veranda.  I would assume that the locals are out having a
ball.



Regards,

Anthony Spierings
as029 at bigpond.net.au



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Another chase report.
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 08:31:54 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3500" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello again pples,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Here is another of the chase reports the 
webmistress has kindly put up for me.&nbsp; It was my first chase of 2001 and my 
longest solo chase to date.&nbsp; I covered 2400km in just 2.5 days.&nbsp; Hope 
you like it.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/05_01_01.htm">http://www.stormchasers.au.com/05_01_01.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Once again HUGE THANKS to Jane for putting these up 
on MSC :-).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>-Macca-</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 09:01:11 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Recently discovered snowpics
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hey all

Just discovered some snow pics of falls in the mid north of SA last May's
cold outbreak I'd fogotten I'd taken.  They're at :

http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2/WeatherWX.html

I've put these up as fun really, as they represent a very cheap and nasty
method of chasing!

Phil

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: (slightly offtopic) uk.sci.weather newsgroup
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 23:26:39 -0000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Everyone,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>If there are any dedicated followers of the 
uk.sci.weather newsgroup on&nbsp;your side to the globe the most regular 
contributors faces are in a link off my main website below!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Note the teeshirts a certain Les Crossan and 
Christine Challen are wearing (:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For those that don't subscribe <A 
href="news://uk.sci.weather">news://uk.sci.weather</A> will get you there - 
there is a strong UK / European bias but plenty of general weather 
discussion.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Les (UK)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Les Crossan &amp; Christine Challen,<BR>UK Storm 
Chasers,<BR>Wallsend, Tyne &amp; Wear 54-59.5N 01-30W<BR><A 
href="http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk">www.uksevereweather.org.uk</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Wallsend StormCam: <A 
href="http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm">www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Russian temperatures.
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 10:40:53 +1100
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

>Also, did anyone see the news story on Moscow and how folk have been killed
>by falling ice (from high above on buildings) etc? Pretty amazing footage.
For those interested there is a spiel about this at
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/DailyNews/moscow_ice_010316.html


>remember someone here saying Siberia had had its coldest winter in ages and
>apparently Russia generally did too. Is that true? 

Yea. have heard fair bit about this, but as with everything in the media,
don't really know what is truth. It is amazing how often the hottest,
coldest, wettest and driest events occur in the minds of the media. That
said, looking at http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/temperature/ much of winter
2000/2001 was one of strong temperature anomalies. My understanding is that
the effects of the cold winter have been made much worse by the collapse of
most state owned utilities in Russia, and subsequent lack of heating fuels -
but again this might be western media hyperbole!

Cheers,

David.
                                                              
Dr David Jones                                               
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646  
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 20:11:11 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Russian temperatures.
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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David wrote:

> Yea. have heard fair bit about this, but as with everything in the media,
> don't really know what is truth. It is amazing how often the hottest,
> coldest, wettest and driest events occur in the minds of the media. That
> said, looking at http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/temperature/ much of winter
> 2000/2001 was one of strong temperature anomalies. My understanding is
that
> the effects of the cold winter have been made much worse by the collapse
of
> most state owned utilities in Russia, and subsequent lack of heating
fuels -
> but again this might be western media hyperbole!

Actually, much of the northern hemisphere had a rather harsh winter, a very
cold winter.  It would appear that the ridge locations were such that much
of the warming occurred over oceanic regions and much of the coldest temps
occurred over land masses.  But any way you cut it, some locations in the
northern hemisphere this year have had an abnormally cold winter.  Here, we
had accumulating snows three days ago and it may snow again tonight.  This
is very unusually as compared to many of the past 10 or 15 winters.  

It will be interesting to see how this winter will fair in the southern
hemesphere.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 17:11:06 -0800 (PST)
From: Andrew Boskell <a_boskell at yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Unbelievable!?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Well, Devonport recorded a good 60mm from the
front/low, which has been gratefully received. It will
be interesting to see if the follow up rain will be as
good later this week.

Andrew Boskell

--- Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
wrote: > > 
> > G'day All,
> > 
> > If this eventuates it should be interesting,
> > considering how dry it's been in Tassie of late.
> > 
> 
> The latest LAPS run is developing a small low over
> Tasmania overnight,
> falling more or less into line with the
> higher-resolution MESOLAPS
> run from last night (although they differ on the
> location of the low).
> 
> It now seems likely that a low of some kind will
> form, and that 
> heavy rain will be associated with it somewhere, but
> the exact location
> of the low will determine where that somewhere is.
> At the moment the
> highest potential for heavy rain seems to be in
> north-eastern Tasmania
> and South Gippsland, but the possibility exists for
> either Melbourne
> or Hobart (although probably not both) to get
> substantial rain on
> the southern and western flanks of the low.
> 
> This is separate from the rainband currently in the
> eastern half of
> SA ahead of, and with, the front (which appears to
> have reached
> Adelaide within the last hour). Much of Victoria
> should do well out
> of this, but Melbourne may miss out on most of the
> action because of
> the rainshadow effects of the ranges to the north
> and west.
> 
> Blair
> 
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


=====
Andrew Boskell

"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"

__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get email at your own domain with Yahoo! Mail. 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Russian temperatures.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 12:46:31 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> David wrote:
> 
> > Yea. have heard fair bit about this, but as with everything in the media,
> > don't really know what is truth. It is amazing how often the hottest,
> > coldest, wettest and driest events occur in the minds of the media. That
> > said, looking at http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/temperature/ much of winter
> > 2000/2001 was one of strong temperature anomalies. My understanding is
> that
> > the effects of the cold winter have been made much worse by the collapse
> of
> > most state owned utilities in Russia, and subsequent lack of heating
> fuels -
> > but again this might be western media hyperbole!
> 
> Actually, much of the northern hemisphere had a rather harsh winter, a very
> cold winter.  It would appear that the ridge locations were such that much
> of the warming occurred over oceanic regions and much of the coldest temps
> occurred over land masses.  But any way you cut it, some locations in the
> northern hemisphere this year have had an abnormally cold winter.  Here, we
> had accumulating snows three days ago and it may snow again tonight.  This
> is very unusually as compared to many of the past 10 or 15 winters.  
> 
> It will be interesting to see how this winter will fair in the southern
> hemesphere.
> 
> Les

Actually, for the Northern Hemisphere extratropics as a whole
temperatures were above normal. There were two substantial areas of
below-normal winter conditions: eastern Siberia (extending into
adjacent areas of China, Mongolia and the Koreas) and the United
States. These were more than offset by abnormally warm conditions
in Alaska, most of Canada (except southern border areas) and Europe.
Alaska's winter temperatures were 6.5 C above normal, easily the 
warmest winter on record.

The American winter, whilst colder than normal, was not exceptionally
so in historical context (0.7 C below normal, 26th lowest out of 106
years) - it probably seemed more severe by comparison with the 
extremely mild winters of 1999/2000 and 1998/99. 

The -70 C allegedly reported from Russia seems very dubious to me, as
it was in a location well away from the regions where such extreme
cold might be possible ('only' 3000km east of Moscow). No doubt
that it's been a very cold winter in eastern Siberia, though - I saw
numerous observations from the usual cold spots (Verhoyansk and 
Oymyakon) in the -55 to -60 range (although this, believe it or not,
is only 5-10 C below normal). The hardship experienced, particularly
in Vladivostok, certainly has more to do with fuel shortages and
infrastrucuture failures than abnormal cold. (As with the US, the cold
appears more acute because of the comparison with recent very mild
winters).

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Russian temperatures.
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 03:20:28 -0000
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Everyone -

The Federation of Russian States are always cold in winter but this year the
Siberian High has been somewhat more like normal and has extended to
Scandanavia quite frequently (the northern UK, including us, is in its snowy
grip at present). Previous years have seen the total lack of blocking highs
in North Western Europe (atlantic weather with Azores High extending to the
Alps being the 'norm' for the last few years) and the Siberian High less
intense than normal. Check the uk.sci.weather FAQ for more details on this.

The situation this year is *not* anomolous and is not a sign of El Nino,
North Wall Effect, North Atlantic Oscillation, global warming, etc nor is it
propaganda from the CIA, MI5, Mossad or whoever.

However it may make for a very stormy spring / summer in Britain if it
continues! Bring on the supercells.

Les (UK)

Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
UK Storm Chasers,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear 54-59.5N 01-30W
www.uksevereweather.org.uk

Wallsend StormCam: www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, March 19, 2001 1:11 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Russian temperatures.


> David wrote:
>
> > Yea. have heard fair bit about this, but as with everything in the
media,
> > don't really know what is truth. It is amazing how often the hottest,
> > coldest, wettest and driest events occur in the minds of the media. That
> > said, looking at http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/temperature/ much of
winter
> > 2000/2001 was one of strong temperature anomalies. My understanding is
> that
> > the effects of the cold winter have been made much worse by the collapse
> of
> > most state owned utilities in Russia, and subsequent lack of heating
> fuels -
> > but again this might be western media hyperbole!
>
> Actually, much of the northern hemisphere had a rather harsh winter, a
very
> cold winter.  It would appear that the ridge locations were such that much
> of the warming occurred over oceanic regions and much of the coldest temps
> occurred over land masses.  But any way you cut it, some locations in the
> northern hemisphere this year have had an abnormally cold winter.  Here,
we
> had accumulating snows three days ago and it may snow again tonight.  This
> is very unusually as compared to many of the past 10 or 15 winters.
>
> It will be interesting to see how this winter will fair in the southern
> hemesphere.
>
> Les
>
> ************************
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: "Come together"
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 15:01:44 +1100
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Hi all.
A nice dogs breakfast of a sat pic for the Australian region this
afternoon!,but it looks like this will all "come together" over the next 24
hours or so.First...the nice area of MOISTURE over WA is moving southeast
and should start to interact with the mid latitude trough and approaching
COLD AIR FIELD..,Second.....the Tasman sea low has lost its direction and
looks to be showing a possibility of RETROGRADING!!(being pressure forced
but the building high near New Zealand),the ridge to the west of Victoria
should breakdown today,and there's a lot of MOISTURE over southeast Aus.All
this equals? looks like a possible RAIN situation for the southeast of
Australia over the next 3 days....bring it on baby.......regards Clyve
Herbert...

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 23:29:34 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Russian temperatures.
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Blair (and All),

Yes, you are right about the contrast with the most recent winters.  For
instance, in 1999 the central US did not have a single outbreak of polar
air all year long.  Our Feb. was, as I recall, +14 F above "normal".  The
rest of the winter, while not that much above "normal" was very much above
average.  Our December of 2000 was the second coldest in our recorded
history.  

As you point out, Alaska was above normal as was the oceanic areas south of
Alaska owing to the position of the long wave ridge and the storms to the
west which produced the strong warm advection up into Alaska.  In fact, it
is the warm advection which build the ridge itself.  Of course, it was that
same ridge that caused the accumulation of very cold airmasses just to the
east of the ridge over polar regions.  Then these very cold airmasses moved
south and penetrated well into the US, where the cold air became anchored
beneath the long wave trough over the west and central US. 

As far as the Siberia extreme cold, I have been reading the Dodge City
extended outlooks.  They were consistently referencing the extreme cold in
Siberia where they spoke of -70 F (not C) several times during the winter. 
They spoke of it in such a way as to indicate the consistency and
persistence of these extremes and factored this into their analysis.   By
the first of March they mentioned values were still as cold as - 40 F (and
- 40 C, of course).  I admit that I took their word for it.  It sounds as
if they must have been mistaken.  Thus, I was mistaken.  The winter was not
as bad as it seemed here nor elsewhere.  I stand corrected.  Guess that is
what I get for straying into areas where I know much less.

I'll stick with radar and supercells, an area where I do know a little more
about that which I speak.  <S>

Thanks for the correction, Blair.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Russian temperatures.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 15:47:36 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> As far as the Siberia extreme cold, I have been reading the Dodge City
> extended outlooks.  They were consistently referencing the extreme cold in
> Siberia where they spoke of -70 F (not C) several times during the winter. 
> They spoke of it in such a way as to indicate the consistency and
> persistence of these extremes and factored this into their analysis.   By
> the first of March they mentioned values were still as cold as - 40 F (and
> - 40 C, of course).  I admit that I took their word for it.  It sounds as
> if they must have been mistaken.  Thus, I was mistaken.  The winter was not
> as bad as it seemed here nor elsewhere.  I stand corrected.  Guess that is
> what I get for straying into areas where I know much less.

No, -70 F sounds about right - that's -57 C, which is consistent with
what I was seeing.

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: BNE - Monster out to sea, was: Small Storms to the North of,
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 17:56:06 +1000
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Well Dave, I did end up seeing it.

Around 11 PM'ish there was an impressive lightning show out to the south
east.  Lightning was continuously playing around the top of the anvil.
Scaling off the RADAR it was 110 km away.  Had another look at 4:30 AM'ish
and it was still going, off in the north-east distance.  I then watched it
on the (private feed) radar and lightning tracker at work during the day.
It was still pounding along, out to sea - east of Gympie, at 1 PM this
afternoon.  Then it slowly deteriorated.  An impressive series of storm
cells.

Hopefully someone had the SLR out.

Regards,

Anthony Spierings


>
> Hi!
> Well there is currently (9.36pm EDT) the most amazing lightning show I've
> seen in a while. About 80-100km east of ballina there is a couple of very
> impressive looking cells (nice fresh updrafts still look to be
> popping up)
> with lighting clearing the cloud and going into the sky!! I have counted
> close to 6 flashes per second in different regions of the cells!!!! It's
> absolutley awsome and I don't know how I'm going to sleep
> tonight! Hope you
> Brisbane guys all got something decent today/tonight!
> Cya!
>
>
> Dave Ellem
> Storm Chaser From Wollongbar,
> Northern Rivers,
> NE NSW
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Lots of Cloud etc,, take 2
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 18:10:57 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>High everyone</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Pressed send button too quickly last time 
!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>But there is a lot of cloud that has been drifting 
in over the coast from Moreton Bay behind those TS which are currently in the 
Sunshine Coast area.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>All they need is something to pile into and maybe 
Brisbane will see a&nbsp;few TS's overnight. It's certainly been very 
humid.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Here's&nbsp;hoping.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane - Something unusual appears to be happening !
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 18:27:33 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Sorry, it me again !</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>But something unusual&nbsp;appears to be 
happening.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Its like a flanking line to my NW that leads to 
nothing. It is clearly moving in an easterly direction in the upper parts, but 
drifting west in the lower parts while continuing to build !</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Appears to be&nbsp;in the vicinity of Brisbane 
Airport or slightly to the west. No radar echoes yet though.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>By the way, did anyone notice a sudden flash of red 
near Caloundra just recently on the local loop?</FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Unusual happenings Maybe not (:
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 18:50:50 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Everyone</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That line of suspicious cloud observed near 
Brisbane has progressed slowly south west without any thing particularly 
interesting happening at this stage.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I've given up observing as I think the mosquitos up 
here are going to carry me into space. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Lots of flashes of lightning out to sea though 
!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Always optimistic</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>S</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
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Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 18:59:17 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham <bayns at broad.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane - Something unusual appears to be
  happening !
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

hey simon, all
i couldn't see that flanking line. but i did see and photo graph that storm
as it went through that stage. this was at 5:50pm EST.
a few minutes later i took anotehr photo of it with a nice wall anvil right
along the southwestern wall. quite spectacular just before the sunsat. hahe
ha ho huah 
being so far away i had to zoomy up on 'im.
might get a distant lightning show to the north later
so looooong!!!



At 06:27 PM 19/03/01 +1100, you wrote:
>   Sorry, it me again !    appears to be  happening.   Its like a flanking
>line to my NW that leads to  nothing. It is clearly moving in an easterly
>direction in the upper parts, but  drifting west in the lower parts while
>continuing to build !    in the vicinity of Brisbane  Airport or slightly
>to the west. No radar echoes yet though.   By the way, did anyone notice a
>sudden flash of red  near Caloundra just recently on the local loop?    Simon 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane - Something unusual appears to be  happening !
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 19:29:18 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Thanks for the reply

I think I'm going crazy for something to happen here in Cleveland soon. I
can see a bit of lightning activity due WNW of here way off in the Kingaroy
area. Appears as though there is a slight ESE movement occurring (though the
radar has been a bit sporadic lately)

Still hopeful !


Simon

----- Original Message -----
From: "steve baynham" <bayns at broad.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, March 19, 2001 7:59 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane - Something unusual appears to be happening !


> hey simon, all
> i couldn't see that flanking line. but i did see and photo graph that
storm
> as it went through that stage. this was at 5:50pm EST.
> a few minutes later i took anotehr photo of it with a nice wall anvil
right
> along the southwestern wall. quite spectacular just before the sunsat.
hahe
> ha ho huah
> being so far away i had to zoomy up on 'im.
> might get a distant lightning show to the north later
> so looooong!!!
>
>
>
> At 06:27 PM 19/03/01 +1100, you wrote:
> >   Sorry, it me again !    appears to be  happening.   Its like a
flanking
> >line to my NW that leads to  nothing. It is clearly moving in an easterly
> >direction in the upper parts, but  drifting west in the lower parts while
> >continuing to build !    in the vicinity of Brisbane  Airport or slightly
> >to the west. No radar echoes yet though.   By the way, did anyone notice
a
> >sudden flash of red  near Caloundra just recently on the local loop?
Simon
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: 28th February 2001 Squall line report - photos are up.
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 21:28:27 +1100
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi

I have replaced some of the video stills with photographs, including a
panorama of the approaching squall.

I have also added links to David's and Matt's reports.

http://ozthunder.com/chase/chase22.htm

Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Adam Mayo" <oyam at bigpond.com>
To: "Australian Severe Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx:  Autumn Weather Patterns, Russian Winter, Canadian Winter
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 23:08:18 +1100
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Hi Lindsay and everyone,

Just had a reply from Canada re your query on the ice.  My contacts live at
a small place called Shiloh,  and the following is what she has written in
answer to your query.


"Of course it is true that  we drive on the ice in the winter. Most
Canadians who live on the waterways own skidoos and it is much shorter to
take the skidoo across the ice to the city than it is to drive. When I lives
on the water we used to skidoo, skate or ski across the ice into the
village. Actually ice fishing here is a great sport and as soon as the bay
would ice over we would take "ice huts" out on to the bay and cut holes in
the ice and place the huts on top of the holes. We would then install a
small heater and benches and shelves to hold the fishing gear (and small
bottles of liqueurs) Actually in the winter there is a veritable city on the
ice and those without skidoos would drive their cars out to their huts.  One
farmer even drives his tractor and plow out no the ice and makes roads for
us.
One winter I was in Thunder Bay visiting my brothre (about 1000 miles north
of here). We went out ice fishing and there were transport trucks driving
across the ice for a short cut!

Spring is almost here. Today it is nice and sunny so hopefully some of the
snow will melt.  I actually had a window open for a short time today."

Hope that this helps,

Judy Mayo.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Apparently-From: <njsykes at yahoo.com>
From: "Nick Sykes" <njsykes at yahoo.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Victoria Outlook
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 07:32:16 +1100
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Looks like a very interesting period of weather for Victoria and SE
Australia over the coming days with the approach of a strong cold front and
the expected formation of a low. Melbourne's forecasted temp for tomorrow
has now been dropped to 18, with local hail and thunder. Storms on the front
tonight are a possibility as well :)

I have written up a little report on this event and have satellite images
showing it's evolution, see it at  www.vicstorms.com

Nick Sykes.


_________________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get your free  at yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 07:09:24 +1000
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Hi All,

Following on from last nights activity off the coast, nice line of
impressive CB's out there this morning, presumably delineating the trough
line. BoM forecasts it to move SW back inland today.  Could be interesting
later.

John.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: looking good in the SE.
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 09:22:54 +1100
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Guess the title says it all. The long promised second low (seen in the progs
late last week), is developing nicely to the southwest of Kangaroo Island
ATM. Models and extrapolation place this near Mt Gambier tonight, before
"it" crosses Victoria through Wednesday. It then appears that secondary
cyclogenesis will then take place in the complex through Thursday in Bass
Strait before, the low complex moves quickly away on Friday ahead of an
amplifying upper trough (presaging the development of yet another low?). 

The exact weather will really depend on the placement of the low and its
attendant cold pool. A track through Bass Strait as favoured by LAPS, UK US
and GASP models will likely see the heaviest rainfalls initially on the
northern slopes in the frontal cloud band/baroclinic leaf, with heavier rain
in the south associated with the vigorous convergent southerlies and likely
vorticity comma and deformation cloud band after the low passes through. One
thing to watch is the coldness of air. The cold pool near Mt Gambier is
progged to have central thickness values less than 540 gpdm (snow to around
1100m level), which is then expected to move over central Victoria. By
Thursday, the cold pool should lie near/east of Melbourne with a central
value between 540 and 547gpdm. At the lower extreme one would expect
significant snowfalls on the ranges east of Melbourne (Lake Mt, Baw Baw)
etc. while the higher values will see just rain.

Cheers,

David. 

                                                              
Dr David Jones                                               
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646  
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Black Ice?
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 16:14:13 -0700
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hi Iain,

it gets pretty crazy, i drove to Denver the other night after a light fall
of mix (snow/rain) and by night time skies were clear. On the way to DIA, no
trouble, on the way back, 8 accidents in only 50 miles, most serious. the
police were walking (literally) up and down the highway looking for cars
that had rolled of the overpasses. Helicopters and all. Mind you, this is
was in the space of about an hour, between when i got to DIA to pick up some
friends from the airport and return to Ft Collins. Though i know up there
your much more prone to ice storms, which is in the forecast for the next 2
days - have fun :)

cheers, Lyle

----- Original Message -----
From: "Iain T. Johnstone" <johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 16, 2001 11:17 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Black Ice?


> Hi Lindsay,
>
> I couldn't get the full size photo to open, so I can only comment on the
> basis of the thumbnail. If the shiny parts were indeed ice, then yes -
that
> is black ice. The real danger with black ice is when the roads are
> generally wet anyway. Then the whole surface just appears wet and you
can't
> see the icy bits. Sometimes here in the American midwest the ice gets so
> bad that you basically cannot drive, no matter how careful you are. Some
> people inevitably try though - this past December I drove from Madison to
> Chicago one day after a bad snow/ice storm and counted 35 cars that had
> slid off the road the previous night.
>
> Cheers,
> Tom
>
> At 09:33 PM 3/16/01, you wrote:
> >Blackheath: 2:30pm, 12C, fresh westerly.
> >
> >G'day all,
> >
> >Not long ago we were discussing black ice, black frost etc on this list.
I
> >have a photo on the Australian Severe Weather site that seems to me to be
> >black ice but I would like others to look at it, (if you have the time)
to
> >confirm this. It was a darkish ice on the road, basically clear really
and
> >very slippery to drive on.
> >
> >Go the ASW page http://australiasevereweather.com/index.html  then click
on
> >Weather Photography, then go down the left margin until you find snow,
click
> >on page one. There you will find a road/ice/snow shot near Oberon from
last
> >year, its above a red Hyundai Excel photo and a below a Cherry Tree Hill
> >photo. Other shots there include my house in the snow and Marion and I in
> >the snow during our heaviest fall last year on May 28.
> >
> >Thanks folk for your help.
> >
> >
> >
> >Lindsay Pearce
> >Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> >Email: writer at lisp.com.au
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Black Ice?
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 16:10:25 -0700
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Hey,

That's definatly black ice, asssuming it is ice and not liquid causing the
reflection. i think the point of all this is that the initial question
should have been, "What's the difference between a black frost, hoar frost
and standard frost".

As far as i have ever known, Black ice is ice on asphalt that appears black.

cheers, Lyle



----- Original Message -----
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 17, 2001 3:28 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Black Ice?


> Yeah, Lindsay.  That looks pretty like what I've always called black ice,
> but then I am no expert on the subject.
> My worst experience with black ice came in Ballarat around 1967 or '68
> when a water main had burst and flooded an intersection and then frozen
> solid.
> It was 5:00 am.  I was driving a motorbike and sidecar at about 50 km/h,
> thought the road looked strange and just touched the brakes.  Suddenly my
> vehicle was doing extremely rapid anticlockwise circular gyrations across
> these acres of ice and I had absolutely no control until I reached the
> end of the ice where the right hand wheels gripped first and she started
> to roll over.  I spun madly to the right and commenced a circular waltz
> in the opposite (clockwise) direction but only spun once.  Absolutely
> dizzy and feeling somewhat sick, I turned off the motor and waited for my
> head to stop spinning.  Meanwhile the boys in blue had watched the lot
> and came over to me.  One of them asked me, "Do you usually cross this
> intersection like that?"  The other one joked about booking me for doing
> sixteen U-turns across the double lines!
> Since then I have been very careful if the road ahead looked "strange" in
> any way!
>
> Phil
> <><
> International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
> Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 14:33:43 +1100
> Subject: aus-wx: Black Ice?
>
> > Blackheath: 2:30pm, 12C, fresh westerly.
> >
> > G'day all,
> >
> > Not long ago we were discussing black ice, black frost etc on this
> > list. I
> > have a photo on the Australian Severe Weather site that seems to me to
> > be
> > black ice but I would like others to look at it, (if you have the time)
> > to
> > confirm this. It was a darkish ice on the road, basically clear really
> > and
> > very slippery to drive on.
> >
> > Go the ASW page http://australiasevereweather.com/index.html  then
> > click on
> > Weather Photography, then go down the left margin until you find snow,
> > click
> > on page one. There you will find a road/ice/snow shot near Oberon from
> > last
> > year, its above a red Hyundai Excel photo and a below a Cherry Tree
> > Hill
> > photo. Other shots there include my house in the snow and Marion and I
> > in
> > the snow during our heaviest fall last year on May 28.
> >
> > Thanks folk for your help.
> >
> >
> >
> > Lindsay Pearce
> > Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> > Email: writer at lisp.com.au
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > +
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
>
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Russian temperatures.
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 16:26:01 -0700
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
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hey Les,

there is a little buzz going around considering the 500mb temps have been so
cold over nothern america, here's hoping they stick around for another 2
more months :)

Cheers, LYle


----- Original Message -----
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 18, 2001 8:20 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Russian temperatures.


> Everyone -
>
> The Federation of Russian States are always cold in winter but this year
the
> Siberian High has been somewhat more like normal and has extended to
> Scandanavia quite frequently (the northern UK, including us, is in its
snowy
> grip at present). Previous years have seen the total lack of blocking
highs
> in North Western Europe (atlantic weather with Azores High extending to
the
> Alps being the 'norm' for the last few years) and the Siberian High less
> intense than normal. Check the uk.sci.weather FAQ for more details on
this.
>
> The situation this year is *not* anomolous and is not a sign of El Nino,
> North Wall Effect, North Atlantic Oscillation, global warming, etc nor is
it
> propaganda from the CIA, MI5, Mossad or whoever.
>
> However it may make for a very stormy spring / summer in Britain if it
> continues! Bring on the supercells.
>
> Les (UK)
>
> Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
> UK Storm Chasers,
> Wallsend, Tyne & Wear 54-59.5N 01-30W
> www.uksevereweather.org.uk
>
> Wallsend StormCam: www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, March 19, 2001 1:11 AM
> Subject: aus-wx: Russian temperatures.
>
>
> > David wrote:
> >
> > > Yea. have heard fair bit about this, but as with everything in the
> media,
> > > don't really know what is truth. It is amazing how often the hottest,
> > > coldest, wettest and driest events occur in the minds of the media.
That
> > > said, looking at http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/temperature/ much of
> winter
> > > 2000/2001 was one of strong temperature anomalies. My understanding is
> > that
> > > the effects of the cold winter have been made much worse by the
collapse
> > of
> > > most state owned utilities in Russia, and subsequent lack of heating
> > fuels -
> > > but again this might be western media hyperbole!
> >
> > Actually, much of the northern hemisphere had a rather harsh winter, a
> very
> > cold winter.  It would appear that the ridge locations were such that
much
> > of the warming occurred over oceanic regions and much of the coldest
temps
> > occurred over land masses.  But any way you cut it, some locations in
the
> > northern hemisphere this year have had an abnormally cold winter.  Here,
> we
> > had accumulating snows three days ago and it may snow again tonight.
This
> > is very unusually as compared to many of the past 10 or 15 winters.
> >
> > It will be interesting to see how this winter will fair in the southern
> > hemesphere.
> >
> > Les
> >
> > ************************
> > Leslie R. Lemon
> > Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> > Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> > Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
> > E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 10:52:54 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: Great Redcliffe Storms & Coming Days (was) Re: aus-wx: BNE - Small 
 Storms to the North of,
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi David,

A "guster" is a slang term used for a "gust-front" that is accompanied
by a shelf-cloud.  (Read the 2nd line of the paragraph you quoted)

So to answer your question - yes it had a shelf cloud :)

AC

David Findlay wrote:
> 
> >The last storm was probably the best, and IMO bordered on the severe
> >category.  It produced a weak guster, but it had a nasty look to it,
> >with a green-yellow tinge, I knew it was going to be better than the
> >others - and it was!  With rain rates comparable to those of March 9, it
> >was TORRENTIAL, and there were strong winds associated with it that
> >brought down some sizable branches near Deception Bay.  I was driving in
> >single file at about 30-40km/h, and everyone was following each other,
> >not being able to pull over or anything.  But every so often a burst of
> >'extra-strong' winds would actually come through and visibility went to
> >nil!  I then ended up having to get onto the Bruce Hwy, thinking it
> >would be fun to try and merge in near zero visibility - I was perhaps
> >fortunate that the Bruce Hwy was brought to a standstill by the storm!
> 
> Did you notice any shelf or wall clouds? I think I may have seen one on that
> storm, it was hard to tell though because of trees in the way.
> 
> David
> 
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: Great Redcliffe Storms & Coming Days (was) Re: aus-wx: BNE - Small Storms to the North of,
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 12:44:22 +1100
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Hi Anthony.
When I was at school and drawing battleships in the back of my maths book
(with congesting cu in the background) my maths teacher discovered this and
sent me to see the vice principle,I subsequently received 6 cuts (the
leather strap).After each cut across my hand there was a blow of air into my
face I used to call this a guster!!! I would even apply an event like this
to something to do with weather.regards Clyve H.
----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 20, 2001 11:52 AM
Subject: Re: Great Redcliffe Storms & Coming Days (was) Re: aus-wx: BNE -
Small Storms to the North of,


> Hi David,
>
> A "guster" is a slang term used for a "gust-front" that is accompanied
> by a shelf-cloud.  (Read the 2nd line of the paragraph you quoted)
>
> So to answer your question - yes it had a shelf cloud :)
>
> AC
>
> David Findlay wrote:
> >
> > >The last storm was probably the best, and IMO bordered on the severe
> > >category.  It produced a weak guster, but it had a nasty look to it,
> > >with a green-yellow tinge, I knew it was going to be better than the
> > >others - and it was!  With rain rates comparable to those of March 9,
it
> > >was TORRENTIAL, and there were strong winds associated with it that
> > >brought down some sizable branches near Deception Bay.  I was driving
in
> > >single file at about 30-40km/h, and everyone was following each other,
> > >not being able to pull over or anything.  But every so often a burst of
> > >'extra-strong' winds would actually come through and visibility went to
> > >nil!  I then ended up having to get onto the Bruce Hwy, thinking it
> > >would be fun to try and merge in near zero visibility - I was perhaps
> > >fortunate that the Bruce Hwy was brought to a standstill by the storm!
> >
> > Did you notice any shelf or wall clouds? I think I may have seen one on
that
> > storm, it was hard to tell though because of trees in the way.
> >
> > David
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Russian temperatures.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 14:39:45 +1100 (EST)
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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> 
> > 
> > As far as the Siberia extreme cold, I have been reading the Dodge City
> > extended outlooks.  They were consistently referencing the extreme cold in
> > Siberia where they spoke of -70 F (not C) several times during the winter. 
> > They spoke of it in such a way as to indicate the consistency and
> > persistence of these extremes and factored this into their analysis.   By
> > the first of March they mentioned values were still as cold as - 40 F (and
> > - 40 C, of course).  I admit that I took their word for it.  It sounds as
> > if they must have been mistaken.  Thus, I was mistaken.  The winter was not
> > as bad as it seemed here nor elsewhere.  I stand corrected.  Guess that is
> > what I get for straying into areas where I know much less.
> 
> No, -70 F sounds about right - that's -57 C, which is consistent with
> what I was seeing.
> 

Having just read a paper from 1958 on the subject of confusion about
the lowest temperature recorded in Russia, I suspect that what has
happened in 2001 is exactly what was described in that paper - a 
reading of -57 C (or something like it) has been taken, it's been
converted by someone to -70 F, and then someone else has mis-reported
that as -70 C. (The 1958 paper investigated claimed temperatures
of -78 and -76 C in Siberia and concluded that this was what had
happened in those cases, as the evidence pointed to actual observations
of around -60 C - and the alleged -78/-76 had never appeared in the 
Soviet literature, only in British and American publications).

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 15:50:15 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide downpour
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all

After a fairly benign start to the day, and a few mm of light rain in
prefrontal cloud, St Peters is currently [3.45CST] experiencing a real
winter style heavy shower with pretty strong gusts. 5mm in 5 minutes by my
readings.

Roll on winter!

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Torrential rain in Adelaide!!!!!!!!!
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 16:01:47 +1030
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 20 Mar 2001 05:31:47.0986 (UTC) FILETIME=[0EEBD720:01C0B0FF]
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<x-flowed>
Some of the heavist rain I have ever seen just fell over Adelaide, flooding 
all over the roads, huge drops of rain and very heavy, this happened at 
around 3:40pm, amazing, can't get onto BOM site which is really pissing me 
off!!!!!!!!


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From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Russian temperatures.
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 16:43:00 +1100
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Hi Blair,
-60c!! sounds rather cold to me.....infact rather incredible when low values
like this are interpreted from the top of CB's reaching 50.000ft or so.Last
year I recorded a wind chill here at Leopold of -12c-that was cold enough!
for me.regards Clyve H.
----- Original Message -----
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 20, 2001 2:39 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Russian temperatures.


> >
> > >
> > > As far as the Siberia extreme cold, I have been reading the Dodge City
> > > extended outlooks.  They were consistently referencing the extreme
cold in
> > > Siberia where they spoke of -70 F (not C) several times during the
winter.
> > > They spoke of it in such a way as to indicate the consistency and
> > > persistence of these extremes and factored this into their analysis.
By
> > > the first of March they mentioned values were still as cold as - 40 F
(and
> > > - 40 C, of course).  I admit that I took their word for it.  It sounds
as
> > > if they must have been mistaken.  Thus, I was mistaken.  The winter
was not
> > > as bad as it seemed here nor elsewhere.  I stand corrected.  Guess
that is
> > > what I get for straying into areas where I know much less.
> >
> > No, -70 F sounds about right - that's -57 C, which is consistent with
> > what I was seeing.
> >
>
> Having just read a paper from 1958 on the subject of confusion about
> the lowest temperature recorded in Russia, I suspect that what has
> happened in 2001 is exactly what was described in that paper - a
> reading of -57 C (or something like it) has been taken, it's been
> converted by someone to -70 F, and then someone else has mis-reported
> that as -70 C. (The 1958 paper investigated claimed temperatures
> of -78 and -76 C in Siberia and concluded that this was what had
> happened in those cases, as the evidence pointed to actual observations
> of around -60 C - and the alleged -78/-76 had never appeared in the
> Soviet literature, only in British and American publications).
>
> Blair
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 16:48:06 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: South Australia historical snowpics up
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all

This has been a hobby of mine for some time, assembling historical accounts
of snowfalls in SA.  Many local histories have pictures in them, and here
are the first few, with more to follow.  I'm working on putting pictures on
a seperate page to speed up loading of the thumbnails.

I'd be interested [Blair, Lindsay??] to hear how these dates correspond
with big falls in the eastern states.

http://www.cobweb.com.au/~paisley2/WeatherWX.html

Enjoy, and roll on winter!

Phil

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Tichborne" <tich at netaccess.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: No storms over here
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 18:22:59 +1200
Organization: Private
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 You Aussies might be having some interesting weather lately, but over here
in NZ, a big fat high has been parked over us for some time with fine
weather in most parts; with only a few showers in the northeast of North
Island, plus plenty of cloud here in coastal Canterbury. Great for outdoor
recreation (except where extreme fire risk closes walking tracks), but the
top of the South Island is now suffering one of its worst droughts on
record, and drought conditions are moving south into Canterbury (but
fortunately without the hot, dry winds of 1997/ 98).
 And the long-range forecast - no change predicted right through to the end
of the weekend.

Ben Tichborne
Christchurch
NZ

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Two records for long runs of days over 20
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 17:24:22 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> Reflecting the more or less total absence of cool weather this 
> summer, we have seen two records for most consecutive days over
> 20. 
> 
> Canberra's last day below 20 was November 16, giving a run of 112
> days (and continuing). This breaks the previous record of 109 days
> set in 1997-98.
> 
> Melbourne's last day below 20 was December 28. The record run of 70
> consecutive days (set in 1956) was equalled today and, barring 
> something very unexpected, will be broken tomorrow. (It's a pity from
> this point of view that we don't use imperial measurements - the last
> 68 days have also exceeded 70 F (21.1 C), easily breaking the 1956
> record of 43). Melbourne has also had 20 consecutive days without
> measurable rain.

Just confirming that both of these runs ended on Saturday, leaving us
with the following new records:

Melbourne	78 (December 29 - March 16)
Canberra	120 (November 17 - March 16)

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Tim Eckert <teckert at start.com.au>
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
X-Originating-IP: [210.9.136.111]
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 16:50:16 +0930
X-mailer: AspMail 4.0 4.03 (SMT4DD4B4F)
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Two records for long runs of days over 20
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Blair (or anyone),

Do you know when was the last time the max. temp. dropped below 20 in
Adelaide? Is it anywhere near a record?



Original message from: Blair Trewin
<blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
>
>> 
>> Reflecting the more or less total absence of cool weather this 
>> summer, we have seen two records for most consecutive days over
>> 20. 
>> 
>> Canberra's last day below 20 was November 16, giving a run of 112
>> days (and continuing). This breaks the previous record of 109 days
>> set in 1997-98.
>> 
>> Melbourne's last day below 20 was December 28. The record run of 70
>> consecutive days (set in 1956) was equalled today and, barring 
>> something very unexpected, will be broken tomorrow. (It's a pity
from
>> this point of view that we don't use imperial measurements - the
last
>> 68 days have also exceeded 70 F (21.1 C), easily breaking the 1956
>> record of 43). Melbourne has also had 20 consecutive days without
>> measurable rain.
>
>Just confirming that both of these runs ended on Saturday, leaving us
>with the following new records:
>
>Melbourne	78 (December 29 - March 16)
>Canberra	120 (November 17 - March 16)
>
>Blair
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
-
>.
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: So whats happened to the storms ?
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 17:50:30 +1100
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<x-html>
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Another disappointing afternoon in Brisbane, 
particularly after I thought yesterday evening/night might produce a bit more 
for us. Today seems less likely as all the convective build up in the area has 
vanished.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Is there some form of temperature inversion at play 
? Perhaps you upper air experts out there can advise.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
X-Originating-IP: [203.171.105.242]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Aerial tornado chasing etc..
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 20:21:47 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 20 Mar 2001 09:21:47.0379 (UTC) FILETIME=[30001C30:01C0B11F]
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<x-flowed>
Hi every1,

For those not privy to WX-CHASE, this link shows some amazing aerial shots 
of tornadoes:

http://users.pld.com/hailman/pics/pics.htm

...locally the cloud is thickening but I think I may have to cross all my 
digits to get anything resembling a storm...:((

Kevin from Wycheproof.
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.26.98.4]
From: "Simon" <borgprocrast at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Florida Tornados
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 21:50:50 +1100
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Does anyone have any links or information regarding the tornados in Florida,
USA this morning (aus time) - The warnings were pointing at Dania, Florida,
a small town in Florida where my wife's family lives.

Thanks,
Simon
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.01 (1630)
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 17:00:14 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Torrential rain in Adelaide!!!!!!!!!
From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

SG
We are not seeing any problems with the BOM. Perhaps it's your ISP?
-- 

> 
> Some of the heavist rain I have ever seen just fell over Adelaide, flooding
> all over the roads, huge drops of rain and very heavy, this happened at
> around 3:40pm, amazing, can't get onto BOM site which is really pissing me
> off!!!!!!!!
> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Webcam
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 18:59:01 -0000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>Everyone,<BR><BR>The Wallsend StormCam has now been live for 365 days (and 
two cameras later).. If you are one of the 12000 - odd visitors to my website / 
webcam for this period then I thank you for visiting... please keep looking one 
day it'll get that overshooting top and backsheared anvil....<BR><BR>Les</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Les Crossan &amp; Christine Challen,<BR>UK Storm 
Chasers,<BR>Wallsend, Tyne &amp; Wear 54-59.5N 01-30W<BR><A 
href="http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk">www.uksevereweather.org.uk</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Wallsend StormCam: <A 
href="http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm">www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 06:08:26 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian low
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

What a lovely forecast!!!!!

TROUGH FCST NEAR COROWA/CAMUS 17Z, FLINDERS ISLAND/BOMBALA 23Z.  SURFACE
LOW 994HPA NEAR 40S139E, MOVING NE AT 25 KNOTS. UPPER LOW 40NM NE OF SFC
LOW. RAIN AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF TROUGH AND ALSO NEAR UPPER LOW. SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOL THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL DEVELOPING W OF FRONT,
MAINLY ON AND S OF RANGES.

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Fw: All-Time-Record Low for N. Hemisphere? (fwd)
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 12:38:48 -0700
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For those of you wondering if/when 'that' tempreture occured, here's the
information i could source;

>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Roger Pielke [mailto:pielke at atmos.colostate.edu]
> Sent: Wednesday, February 21, 2001 3:53 PM
> To: at541 -- Allison Edwards; Ann Gravier; Anthony Worsham; Cory Wolff;
> Curtis H. Marshall, Jr.; Dallas Staley;
> eric at charney.atmos.colostate.edu; Luis Gustavo Pereira; Israel Jirak;
> Joanne Skidmore; J.R. Hanamean; Justin Shaw; Lyle Pakula; Mick
> Hopsecger; Roger Pielke; s4brown at lamar.ColoState.EDU;
> saraht at atmos.colostate.edu; Scott Emert; Sean Miner;
> terwey at lorenz.atmos.colostate.edu
> Subject: All-Time-Record Low for N. Hemisphere? (fwd)
>
>
>
> FYI
>
> RP
>
> --
>
============================================================================
> ==
> Roger A. Pielke Sr., Professor and State Climatologist
> Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University
> Fort Collins, CO  80523, Phone/Fax: 970-491-8293
> Email: pielke at atmos.colostate.edu
> VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT: http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 14:21:52 -0500
> From: Brad  Rippey <BRIPPEY at mailoce.oce.usda.gov>
> To: drought at enso.unl.edu
> Subject: All-Time-Record Low for N. Hemisphere?
>
> Thanks to Miles Schumacher, a lead forecaster at the NWS office
> in Des Moines, Iowa, we have word of a possible new record-low
> temperature for the Northern Hemisphere.  An excerpt from his
> weekly summary reads:
>
> "Meanwhile, over the Arctic source region of Siberia temperatures
> did warm somewhat in most areas during the past week.  They were
> generally between -40 and -55 degrees F.  This warming followed
> all-time record cold with one station recording a low temperature
> earlier this month of -94 F.  If this is confirmed, that would be the
> coldest temperature ever recorded in the northern hemisphere.
>
> (or go to: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/0weather/outlook.html)
>
> Brad Rippey
> USDA Agricultural Meteorologist
>
> p.s.  My sources indicate that the currently accepted record
> is -90 degrees F, set in two Siberian towns: Verkhoyansk on
> February 5 and 7, 1892, and Oimekon (or Oymykon) on
> on February 6, 1933.
>
> p.p.s.  If the latest 10- to 15-day outlooks are "in the ballpark,"
> we may be able to tap into some of that cold air east of the
> Rockies by early March.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 09:37:34 -0600
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Iain T. Johnstone" <johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Florida Tornados
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi Simon,

As you probably already know, the storm prediction center has the latest 
warnings and predictions for severe weather:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Other news links referring to last night's storms:
http://www.click10.com/mia/news/stories/news-54595020010320-050310.html

Not much else on it here, so hopefully things weren't too mad. e.g. Miami 
Herald doesn't have much to say:
http://www.miami.com/herald/content/news/local/index.htm#dade

Hope you wife's family are all okay,

Tom

At 04:50 AM 3/20/01, you wrote:
>Does anyone have any links or information regarding the tornados in Florida,
>USA this morning (aus time) - The warnings were pointing at Dania, Florida,
>a small town in Florida where my wife's family lives.
>
>Thanks,
>Simon
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</x-flowed>
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: South Australia historical snowpics up
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 10:34:31 +1100
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Written offline: Wednesday morning, 10:30am.

G'day Phil,

Some nice historical shots there :)

The heaviest falls in the Blue Mountains seem to be on 4th/5th July 1900
where it is reported that up to a metre of snow fell during that period
across the upper Blue Mountains, although some records in Katoomba around
that time showed only 30cm which *may* have indicated the amount of snow on
the ground after it had packed (which is something like a factor of 4,
especially for our usually very wet snow, up here). It does seem that the
first decade of the 20th century was a beauty although I don't have official
records at hand. I've read that a large amount of snow fell in July 1905 up
here too but I cannot confirm how much.

Snow depth is often reported incorrectly, too. As Laurier mentioned last
year, a good approach  to snowdepth measurement is to use a piece of plywood
placed in an area protected from strong winds/eddies and away from
depressions. The board should be cleared of snow, say, every half an hour or
so during heavier falls to protect against packing.

Also, July 18th and 19th 1965 saw heavy falls up here, with Katoomba 30cm
and Mount Victoria 45cm. This fall saw snow falls to quite low levels in the
Megalong Valley, I spoke to a propery owner about this recently. Also, on
the 1/9/1970 there were falls of between 15 to 25cm across the upper Blue
Mountains.

From talking to locals, heavier snowfalls were not uncommon up here in the
1950's and 60's. I've heard numerous stories of locals walking through the
apple orchards with calf to knee deep snow. I must say though, locals also
said that last year was one of the best years for a very long time in terms
of snowfall frequency, although, I must stress, this is anecdotal and might
reflect more on the lesser amounts of snow over the last 25 years or so.

Cheers,

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: "Phil Bagust" <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 20, 2001 6:18 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: South Australia historical snowpics up


> Hi all
>
> This has been a hobby of mine for some time, assembling historical
accounts
> of snowfalls in SA.  Many local histories have pictures in them, and here
> are the first few, with more to follow.  I'm working on putting pictures
on
> a seperate page to speed up loading of the thumbnails.
>
> I'd be interested [Blair, Lindsay??] to hear how these dates correspond
> with big falls in the eastern states.
>
> http://www.cobweb.com.au/~paisley2/WeatherWX.html
>
> Enjoy, and roll on winter!
>
> Phil
>
> Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
> - - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
>       "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward
>
>
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From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Lifted Index and Upper Level Forecasts
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 10:17:15 +1000
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Somewhere I remember seeing a guide to lifted indexes and upper level
forecast on the net. I think it may have been Ben Quinn or Anthony Cornelius
who wrote it. What is the URL?

David

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From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fw: All-Time-Record Low for N. Hemisphere? (fwd)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 11:26:42 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> For those of you wondering if/when 'that' tempreture occured, here's the
> information i could source;
> 

I'll be in touch with the U.S. National Climatic Data Center to find 
out what's going on (and follow up a few other things, mostly some
material which suggests that the world record high temperature is
dodgy at best). Will let everyone know if/when I get any useful
information.

Blair
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X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 11:28:58 +1100 (EDT)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: WEATHER: Nice Mammatus to to SE
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Hi all

Well the rain band responsible for the moderate falls in Melbourne has
moved off to the southeast, with the rear upper portions exhibiting some
rather nice mammatus, as currently seen to the southeast from Clayton.


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Index and Upper Level Forecasts
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 02:11:18 GMT
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David, they were at http://www.nemas.net/edu/index.html, but access to
the nemas server is now forbidden. Perhaps Ben or Anthony know where
they've gone???

Laurier

On Wed, 21 Mar 2001 10:17:15 +1000, "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
wrote:

>Somewhere I remember seeing a guide to lifted indexes and upper level
>forecast on the net. I think it may have been Ben Quinn or Anthony Cornelius
>who wrote it. What is the URL?
>
>David
>
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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Impressive Sat Pic
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 12:34:37 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Very impressive sat pic of low between Adelaide and 
Melbourne.</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>Looks like some general rain and 
thunder may spread across SEQ later today. The BoM forecast seems to support 
this.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
X-Originating-IP: [155.144.17.252]
From: "Simon" <borgprocrast at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Florida Tornados
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 13:37:22 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 21 Mar 2001 02:37:22.0480 (UTC) FILETIME=[DB681B00:01C0B1AF]
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<x-html>
<html><DIV>
<P><BR><BR>Hey Tom, thanks for your help! I believe all is well.</P>
<P>I appreciate your help</P>
<P>- Simon</P></DIV><br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>
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Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 13:44:20 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
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X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Index and Upper Level Forecasts
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NEMAS closed down indeffinatly....

Ben/Anthony may have they're guides on BSCH somewhere.

Matt Smith

Laurier Williams wrote:

> David, they were at http://www.nemas.net/edu/index.html, but access to
> the nemas server is now forbidden. Perhaps Ben or Anthony know where
> they've gone???
>
> Laurier
>
> On Wed, 21 Mar 2001 10:17:15 +1000, "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
> wrote:
>
> >Somewhere I remember seeing a guide to lifted indexes and upper level
> >forecast on the net. I think it may have been Ben Quinn or Anthony Cornelius
> >who wrote it. What is the URL?
> >
> >David
> >
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>
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Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 13:51:46 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide - winter has arrived!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all

An absolutely bona fide winters day here in Adelaide.  Feels like June not
March.  Low scudding cloud and near continual drizzle with the odd heavier
shower embedded.  Strongish SW winds too.  I make only 13 degrees at
1.30CST.

Assuming it doesn't fill, this low should bring some interesting weather
east pretty soon......

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001 20:12:19 -0800 (PST)
From: Andrew Boskell <a_boskell at yahoo.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Heavy Rain and Thunder in Burnie
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G'day All,

Look's like the follow up to last weekends rain has
arrived. Odd thunder rumble about Burnie. Not a good
day to be at work....bummer!

Regards,

Andrew.

=====
Andrew Boskell

"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"

__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get email at your own domain with Yahoo! Mail. 
http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/
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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Adelaide - winter has arrived!
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 14:34:33 +1000
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Sure has,

Check out the current obs around Adelaide...
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65012.shtml

I get goosebumps just thinking about it, after going out at lunchtime and
sweltering in the heat & humidity here.

John.
>snip

Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide - winter has arrived!

Hi all

An absolutely bona fide winters day here in Adelaide.  Feels like June not
March.  Low scudding cloud and near continual drizzle with the odd heavier
shower embedded.  Strongish SW winds too.  I make only 13 degrees at
1.30CST.

Assuming it doesn't fill, this low should bring some interesting weather
east pretty soon......

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au

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From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide - winter has arrived!
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 17:24:29 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> Hi all
> 
> An absolutely bona fide winters day here in Adelaide.  Feels like June not
> March.  Low scudding cloud and near continual drizzle with the odd heavier
> shower embedded.  Strongish SW winds too.  I make only 13 degrees at
> 1.30CST.
> 

Max so far today is 15.5, which will be the 2nd lowest on record for
March if it holds (I suspect the 9 a.m. reset tomorrow may be higher,
though).

Blair
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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Widespread rain around the country
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 06:30:08 GMT
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Unusually widespread rain 9am to 3pm from the low/trough system now
weakening in western Vic, with Qld, NSW, Vic, Tas and SA all getting
some substantial falls. Given the present situation around Melbourne,
I'm surprised there haven't been some postings from weather-starved
Victorians (maybe the list is as slow as the Bureau server at the
moment ;-)

Best falls 9 to 3 were on the NSW Northern Tablelands and Slopes and
upper Hunter, where Woolbrook got 53mm,  Inverell 34, Glen Innes AP
31, Barraba 30 and Tamworth AP and Murrurundi 28. No thunder with the
rain. A few half-decent falls in the drought-stricken Darling Downs,
too, with Miles getting 16 and Texas 14, again with no thunder
reported, and rain continuing at 3.

In SA, the best rain was before 9am. Mt Gambier reported 55mm, not far
short of its March 24-hour record of 62.2. 58 at Mt Gambier Council,
52 at Nangwarry and 50 at Coonawarra were other notable falls. Since
9am the rain's been widespread, but only Meningee (15) and Lameroo
(13) had more than 10mm. A pretty cold day, with max temps 6 to 12
below normal, and only getting to 12C at Parawa in the hills south of
Adelaide. Highest wind gust I can find was 93km/h at Neptune Island at
1.10am. Adelaide Airport had one of 78km/h at 5.14am with mean speed
of 63, so breezy but no tempest. 

The low seems to have run out of steam somewhat in western Victoria,
with the highest 9 to 3 rainfall in the area only 12 at Ararat.
Eastern Vic is doing better with 13 at Beechworth, 11 at Rutherglen
and 23 at Mt Hotham, where the wind gusted to 106km/h at 8.38am. Quite
a bit of thunder in that area, and the current (5pm EDST) radar shows
a severe case of chickenpox around Melbourne, with bits of pink
popping up briefly all over the place. The broadscale radar, and a
quick synoptic chart I drew for 3pm suggest the trough is lying over
Melbourne at the moment, with light to moderate rain to the south of
Port Philip moving in from the east, and showers north of Melbourne
moving from the NW. I hope someone is out chasing.

NW and NE Tasmania are getting some rain and storms now -- 15 at
Smithton and 13 at Cape Grim and Wynyard 9 to 3, with 10mm at St
Helens and Swansea and (interestingly) Tunnack in the southern
Midlands. 

There were a couple of heavy late-season falls in the northwest of the
country overnight. Rabbit Flat, a roadhouse and not much else in the
middle of the Tanami Desert between Alice Springs and Wyndham, copped
137mm in 9 hours to 6am for a 24-hour total of 183mm. That appears to
beat the previous all-time record of 139.7 in a record back to 1969.
Meanwhile, Derby AP managed 101mm in 3 hours to midnight last night.

-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://www.australianweathernews.com
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From: "The Weather Co." <twc at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide - winter has arrived!
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 17:41:36 +1100
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Hi Blair

On the note of lowest maxima, do you have any data available on Alice
Springs? With the thick cloud cover and rain all day it appears that the
temp has not got above 15C since 9am. Is this also a record for March? Looks
less likely that their temp will rise significantly before 9am tomorrow with
the cloud hanging around...

Matt Pearce
____________________
The Weather Company
Level 2, 7 West Street
North Sydney 2060
Phone: (02) 9955 7704
Fax: (02) 9955 1536
http://www.theweather.com.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Rutherglen
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 18:29:45 +1100
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Laurier wrote:
The low seems to have run out of steam somewhat in western Victoria,
with the highest 9 to 3 rainfall in the area only 12 at Ararat.
Eastern Vic is doing better with 13 at Beechworth, 11 at Rutherglen
and 23 at Mt Hotham, where the wind gusted to 106km/h at 8.38am.

The obs for Rutherglen are taken about six kilometres south of town. My
Davis shows 12mm exactly and the old manual one shows 13. Mainly falling
from 8.30am and nothing other than very light drizzle after 10.30am.
Supposed to get a SW wind today but all I could manage was a Westerly at
31kmh at 6.18 this morning and then swung to the NNW about 10am it's held
there pretty well all day. Currently 17.4C
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 19:09:43 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Widespread rain around the country
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Afternoon all,

Great day for it!!!!  Heavy rain early this morning - started at about 5.30am
in Bayswater, it was still going on the way to work - had fun surfing through
water on the road courtesy of blocked drains rather than very heavy rain (10 -
20's at that time).  Heay rain NE of the CBD between 7.30am & 8am.  Pressure
in Abbotsford bottomed out at 999hPa at around 9am. Cloud from the band
associated with the low that was moving north across W Victoria moved off to
the east & at around lunchtime you were treated with a synoptic scale view of
the cirrus band wrapping into the low NE - through SE - S - SW & up to the
west.  By 2pm there were congesting Cu around the SW & W quadrants.  By 3pm
there were 2 active cells to the NW of Abbotsford - one moved over us to the
SE, but the other must have got up further & faster & was dragged off the the
SW (this was NOT a right mover).

If I'd been facing west rather than east I would have got the whole
'flang'('fland' describes simultaneous lightning & thunder), but unfortunately
I only on the 'ang' part - but it instantly decided me that it was time to do
a dash to the PO in Kew.  Other than delightedly getting soaked on the way in
from the car, I had to stop on top of the hill in Kew to ring the BoM to
report 5mm hail reaching the ground - Simon was actually rather excited about
this happening too & thanked me for the report.  I'd pulled over to the side
of the road, because the rain & hail was so heavy (or was it so I didn't have
to go back to work just then?????).

Driving home was also a treat (visually), and have had a rumble of thunder in
Bayswater so far.

I got 3mm to 6am & 10mm from 6am - 6pm out of this (37mm for the month to
date), but I think this place has missed some of the heavier showers.

Last heard Tony Middleton was standing down in Gippsland watching cgs &
hearing thunder & loving every minute of it.  The rest of the Vics???? they're
probably still out in it.

I'll put some pics up later tonight for those storm-starved of you out there.

Winter looks like being fun!!!!!

Jane





--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32)
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 22:04:43 +1200
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: John Gaul <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
Subject: aus-wx: Omega Block Situation
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

We have an Omega Block Situation over us at the moment.
For much of New Zealand it means
:No rain
:No interesting weather 
:No relief to the very dry weather we are experiencing here at the moment.


IT'S SO BORING !!!

 

John Gaul
NZ Thunderstorm Society

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 21:24:35 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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Ok, we have now thrown the wind direction into reverse & the rain band is starting
to wrap up across the coast from the SE, whereas earlier the rain was coming from
NW & W (or NE depending on where you were standing when the cloud got up into the
steering flow).

The low has now caught the jet & is using it as infeed.  Forecasts of rain &
periods of heavy rain for Melbourne & the southern central parts of the state.
The area between Cape Otway & Port Phillip Bay looks to be the favoured area for
substantial falls tonight.

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 21:28:01 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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and then just after you hit 'send' you find......

tonight's updated aviation forecast!!

COMPLEX PATTERN WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTRES. MAIN LOW EXPECTED NEAR HAY 11Z,
WAGGA 17Z THEN WEAKENING. SECOND LOW TO FORM OVER E  BASS STRAIT AFTER 17Z THEN
INTENSIFYING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SEA/COAST AND ALSO LAND E OF 145E.
RAIN AREAS LOCALLY HEAVY INS  AND E. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW CLOUD IN PRECIPITATION
AND ABOUT SEA/COAST/RANGES.

SUBDIVISIONS:
A: E OF MAIN LOW
B: W OF MAIN LOW

AMD WIND:
    2000       5000     7000      10000             14000           18500
 A: 340/20  330/25  330/25  330/25 MS04  340/30 MS11  340/40 MS20
 B: 170/30  170/35  170/35  170/35 MS01  180/35 MS08  180/40 MS15

REMARKS:
 1. WINDS ALL LEVELS 15-30 KNOTS STRONGER AROUND NW AND N FLANKS OF LOW TILL 17Z.

CLOUD: ISOL CB 3000/30000 SEA/COAST AND LAND E OF 145E. BKN ST 0800/3000 IN
PRECIPITATION AND ABOUT SEA/COAST/RANGES. AREAS BKN CU/SC 2500/10000 ISOL CU TOPS
18000. BKN ACAS ABOVE 10000 IN S AND E.

WEATHER: TSRA/GR, +RA, RA, SHRA.VISIBILITY: 3000M TSRA/GR/+RA, 5000M RA, 6KM SHRA.

AMD FREEZING LEVEL: 6500 IN E RISING TO 11000 IN FAR W.

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 21:01:32 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: More Heavy Rain is Thunderstorms in Brisbane!
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Hi all!

67mm in an hour here, not bad!  Best rainfall was between a torrential
period of 31mm in 12mins!!!  The CBD got 77mm, I think they had a few
falls of 20mm/10mins - no warnings were issued though, I tried to phone
in (and still am) but it has been busy for the past 30mins...

Some nice lightning (every 5-10seconds at times, other times were more
infrequent), and one flang!

We had to put a pot in our kitchen as water came through the skylight at
the heaviest stage.
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon)
Date: 21 Mar 01 22:15:19 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Widespread rain around the country
Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway 
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Hello Jane!

21 Mar 01 19:09, you wrote to All:

 JO> Great day for it!!!!  Heavy rain early this morning - started at about
 JO> 5.30am in Bayswater, it was still going on the way to work - had fun
 JO> surfing through water on the road courtesy of blocked drains rather

Nice report Jane.  I enjoyed the morning wade through the rain on the way to
the tram in semi-darkness.  Was a nice change. :-)

Only saw some of the activity in the sky, a 2 floor perch isn't high enough to
get all the action, but was able to observe an active cell around the SW
suburbs while on the way home.  Reports on the (ham) radio indicated heavy rain
and traffic chaos around North Altona and Laverton, but in Essendon, it was
dry.

Saw a spectacular lightning discharge just before arriving home.

There's been relatively little rain in Niddrie till 10PM, hoping we'll get
another dose tonight and in the morning.

Tony, VK3JED

.. Confucius say: Man with hole in pocket feel cocky all day long.
--
|Fidonet:  Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
|
| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 06:57:56 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Flash Flooding in Brisbane Last Night
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,

Page 2 of the Courier Mail has some information on the flash flooding
from last night...Stones Corner seems the worst to be effected (also the
worst effected on the devasting March 9 floods).  The article also goes
to say that cars were "swallowed" and businesses on the southside were
once again effected.  Strong winds took down power poles and blacked out
Kallangur, Murarrie, Jimboomba, upper Caboolture, Red Hill and
Paddington.

It wasn't as bad as March 9 though - the storms were slow moving but
they weren't as persistant as March 9.  After the main cell went through
the south side, another cell developed over the CBD and followed it,
which is probably what caused a lot of the flooding, it was much more
intense than yellow and green - I had 30mm in 12mins!  (180mm/hr
rainrate) and I was on the edge of it, the heavier rain was to my west.
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Geelong Weather Services" <gws at pipeline.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: 60 mm at Geelong last night
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 08:30:46 +1100
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Hi all,  An incredible 60 mm in Geelong's southern suburbs came from that
wrap-around flank of the low last night.  Almost stopped now (8.30) but
showers to come.  More details later.  Lindsay Smail.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: snow falls.
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 09:14:51 +1100
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For those desperate to see a little of the white stuff, the snow cams at
ski.com.au show what appears to be a few small patches of snow at the top of
Thredbo/Basin. Certainly, all major resorts appear to have experience some
sleet/snow overnight, but with "warm" ground and only marginal temperatures
the only evidence on the cams is at Thredbo.

BTW for those with access to radar, Melbourne ATM has a quite remarkable
meridionally aligned rain band which appears to be associated with a well
developed vortex deformation cloud. These cloud features tend to be quite
transient, but if present rainfall rates continue, much of central Victoria
will be looking at 20mm+ falls.

Cheers,

David.

                                                              
Dr David Jones                                               
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646  
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: Great Redcliffe Storms & Coming Days (was) Re: aus-wx: BNE - Small  Storms to the North of,
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 08:04:37 +1000
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Hi David, Anthony

Once again i'll let everyone make up their own minds, but i thought this was
quite possible a wall cloud, taken at around 3:45pm looking north towards
Redcliffe

http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/ben/190301_05.shtml

Same deal with this lot - click on the next/previous links to see all
photos - there are 7 of them showing the development of the storm itself and
the wallcloud




----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 20, 2001 10:52 AM
Subject: Re: Great Redcliffe Storms & Coming Days (was) Re: aus-wx: BNE -
Small Storms to the North of,


> Hi David,
>
> A "guster" is a slang term used for a "gust-front" that is accompanied
> by a shelf-cloud.  (Read the 2nd line of the paragraph you quoted)
>
> So to answer your question - yes it had a shelf cloud :)
>
> AC
>
> David Findlay wrote:
> >
> > >The last storm was probably the best, and IMO bordered on the severe
> > >category.  It produced a weak guster, but it had a nasty look to it,
> > >with a green-yellow tinge, I knew it was going to be better than the
> > >others - and it was!  With rain rates comparable to those of March 9,
it
> > >was TORRENTIAL, and there were strong winds associated with it that
> > >brought down some sizable branches near Deception Bay.  I was driving
in
> > >single file at about 30-40km/h, and everyone was following each other,
> > >not being able to pull over or anything.  But every so often a burst of
> > >'extra-strong' winds would actually come through and visibility went to
> > >nil!  I then ended up having to get onto the Bruce Hwy, thinking it
> > >would be fun to try and merge in near zero visibility - I was perhaps
> > >fortunate that the Bruce Hwy was brought to a standstill by the storm!
> >
> > Did you notice any shelf or wall clouds? I think I may have seen one on
that
> > storm, it was hard to tell though because of trees in the way.
> >
> > David
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: LP Supercell?
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 07:59:07 +1000
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Hi all

I photographed the following storm in the NW suburbs of Brisbane the day
before yesterday - at the time i was thinking it was low precip supercell -
i'll let you make up your own minds

http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/ben/200301_11.shtml

It was quite spectacular! There is a series of photos from initial
development to dissipation

http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/ben/200301_01.shtml

Click on the "next/previous" links to see all photos.  The last 2 photos are
off a developing Cb complex off the coast


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow falls.
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 15:38:06 -0700
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hey david,

yer i checked the charts this morning and it looked like the freezing level
would be around 1700m? Can't access sounding data to really see.

Ahh my buddies back at home will be getting all excited for another big
winter in oz :)

cheers, Lyle

----- Original Message -----
From: "David Jones" <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 21, 2001 3:14 PM
Subject: aus-wx: snow falls.


> For those desperate to see a little of the white stuff, the snow cams at
> ski.com.au show what appears to be a few small patches of snow at the top
of
> Thredbo/Basin. Certainly, all major resorts appear to have experience some
> sleet/snow overnight, but with "warm" ground and only marginal
temperatures
> the only evidence on the cams is at Thredbo.
>
> BTW for those with access to radar, Melbourne ATM has a quite remarkable
> meridionally aligned rain band which appears to be associated with a well
> developed vortex deformation cloud. These cloud features tend to be quite
> transient, but if present rainfall rates continue, much of central
Victoria
> will be looking at 20mm+ falls.
>
> Cheers,
>
> David.
>
>
> Dr David Jones
>
> Climate Analysis Section
> National Climate Centre
> Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP Supercell?
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 15:46:15 -0700
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hey ben,

I don't know much about this but thought i would just comment on the photo -
nice! Did the tower shear off soon after you took those final ones?

cheers, Lyle

----- Original Message -----
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 21, 2001 2:59 PM
Subject: aus-wx: LP Supercell?


> Hi all
>
> I photographed the following storm in the NW suburbs of Brisbane the day
> before yesterday - at the time i was thinking it was low precip
supercell -
> i'll let you make up your own minds
>
> http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/ben/200301_11.shtml
>
> It was quite spectacular! There is a series of photos from initial
> development to dissipation
>
> http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/ben/200301_01.shtml
>
> Click on the "next/previous" links to see all photos.  The last 2 photos
are
> off a developing Cb complex off the coast
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 10:04:02 +1100
From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow falls.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

It seems that Southern Tablelands minima were generally lower than
expected. Dad has just reported (via Mum!) that at Taralga the winds
were calm at it bottomed out at 0.5C. This of course means that it went
uncomfortably close to a frost there. I noticed on the 11PM obs last
night that Orange was calm and 4 degrees.

Apparently cloud and a cool breeze have developed now.

Andrew.


Lyle Pakula wrote:
> 
> hey david,
> 
> yer i checked the charts this morning and it looked like the freezing level
> would be around 1700m? Can't access sounding data to really see.
> 
> Ahh my buddies back at home will be getting all excited for another big
> winter in oz :)
> 
> cheers, Lyle
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "David Jones" <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
> To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, March 21, 2001 3:14 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: snow falls.
> 
> > For those desperate to see a little of the white stuff, the snow cams at
> > ski.com.au show what appears to be a few small patches of snow at the top
> of
> > Thredbo/Basin. Certainly, all major resorts appear to have experience some
> > sleet/snow overnight, but with "warm" ground and only marginal
> temperatures
> > the only evidence on the cams is at Thredbo.
> >
> > BTW for those with access to radar, Melbourne ATM has a quite remarkable
> > meridionally aligned rain band which appears to be associated with a well
> > developed vortex deformation cloud. These cloud features tend to be quite
> > transient, but if present rainfall rates continue, much of central
> Victoria
> > will be looking at 20mm+ falls.
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > David.
> >
> >
> > Dr David Jones
> >
> > Climate Analysis Section
> > National Climate Centre
> > Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> > GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> > Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> > email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
> >
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 

With regard to (and in protest of) the new laws involving forwarding of
messages, this email MAY be forwarded.

Andrew Miskelly
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 60 mm at Geelong last night
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 10:11:45 +1100
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Hi all.
Its about time,! almost 5 months since any decent rain here at Leopold, last
night got 47.1mm and since Friday 80.1mm!,also a remarkable warming this
morning at about 0905hrs the temp went from 11.4c to 17.1c in about 2
minutes, the culprit appears to be a new low pressure centre developing near
to the east central district and warm air being drawn from the Tasman sea
across Bass Strait and wrapping around the low to cross the coast of central
Victoria,the frogs are croaking again too!!regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: Geelong Weather Services <gws at pipeline.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 8:30 AM
Subject: aus-wx: 60 mm at Geelong last night


> Hi all,  An incredible 60 mm in Geelong's southern suburbs came from that
> wrap-around flank of the low last night.  Almost stopped now (8.30) but
> showers to come.  More details later.  Lindsay Smail.
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow falls.
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 10:20:29 +1100
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--Hi David ,
The present if rather complex low has started to gain some warm air
incursion around its southern flank, which appears to be wrapping around and
crossing the Victorian coastline around the central district,the warming
that occured here near to the coastline this morning was very interesting
rissing from 11.4c to 17c in only a couple of minutes (Leopold is rather
exposed and close to the coastline).Yesterday this low evolved into  an
interesting complex system over the land ,not unusual ,it will interesting
to see if the system will deepen over open sea today, at the moment I have a
20 to 25 knott southerly and barometric pressure has started to fall.regards
Clyve H.

--- Original Message -----
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail) <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 9:14 AM
Subject: aus-wx: snow falls.


> For those desperate to see a little of the white stuff, the snow cams at
> ski.com.au show what appears to be a few small patches of snow at the top
of
> Thredbo/Basin. Certainly, all major resorts appear to have experience some
> sleet/snow overnight, but with "warm" ground and only marginal
temperatures
> the only evidence on the cams is at Thredbo.
>
> BTW for those with access to radar, Melbourne ATM has a quite remarkable
> meridionally aligned rain band which appears to be associated with a well
> developed vortex deformation cloud. These cloud features tend to be quite
> transient, but if present rainfall rates continue, much of central
Victoria
> will be looking at 20mm+ falls.
>
> Cheers,
>
> David.
>
>
> Dr David Jones
>
> Climate Analysis Section
> National Climate Centre
> Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Next please!
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 10:36:27 +1100
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Hi all
While Victoria is still enjoying the current weather system the next one is
cueing up in the Australian Bight,with a strengthening cold front and a nice
looking cold air field following,also lurking is an active tropical
disturbance off north western Australia feeding moisture to the southeast
along the sub tropical jet,looks like yet another area of cyclogenisis
developing southwest of Adelaide over the next 24 hours and moving into the
southeast of Australia for the weekend.Although very marginal the area off
the north west of WA does have some potential and worth a check for the next
24 hours also.regards Clyve Herbert.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow falls.
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 10:37:00 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Hi Andrew, Luke, David and fellow snow hounds,

Yeah, seems to be snow above Thredbo this morning. You can see what looks
like a dusting from the Valley view cam and also Blue cow looks like there
is possible sleet/snow there at the moment.

Being on a high ridge our minimum this morning wasn't low but at 5.8C at my
place and windy, it was a nice walk to the screen this morning. At 10:36am,
its becoming quite gusty and feels colder than 10C with the fresh winds.
There's a bit more cloud around that I expected this morning, so it will be
interesting to see what our max is today.

Cheers,


Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 10:04 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow falls.


> It seems that Southern Tablelands minima were generally lower than
> expected. Dad has just reported (via Mum!) that at Taralga the winds
> were calm at it bottomed out at 0.5C. This of course means that it went
> uncomfortably close to a frost there. I noticed on the 11PM obs last
> night that Orange was calm and 4 degrees.
>
> Apparently cloud and a cool breeze have developed now.
>
> Andrew.
>
>
> Lyle Pakula wrote:
> >
> > hey david,
> >
> > yer i checked the charts this morning and it looked like the freezing
level
> > would be around 1700m? Can't access sounding data to really see.
> >
> > Ahh my buddies back at home will be getting all excited for another big
> > winter in oz :)
> >
> > cheers, Lyle
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "David Jones" <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
> > To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Wednesday, March 21, 2001 3:14 PM
> > Subject: aus-wx: snow falls.
> >
> > > For those desperate to see a little of the white stuff, the snow cams
at
> > > ski.com.au show what appears to be a few small patches of snow at the
top
> > of
> > > Thredbo/Basin. Certainly, all major resorts appear to have experience
some
> > > sleet/snow overnight, but with "warm" ground and only marginal
> > temperatures
> > > the only evidence on the cams is at Thredbo.
> > >
> > > BTW for those with access to radar, Melbourne ATM has a quite
remarkable
> > > meridionally aligned rain band which appears to be associated with a
well
> > > developed vortex deformation cloud. These cloud features tend to be
quite
> > > transient, but if present rainfall rates continue, much of central
> > Victoria
> > > will be looking at 20mm+ falls.
> > >
> > > Cheers,
> > >
> > > David.
> > >
> > >
> > > Dr David Jones
> > >
> > > Climate Analysis Section
> > > National Climate Centre
> > > Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> > > GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> > > Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> > > email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
> > >
> > >
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> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
>
> With regard to (and in protest of) the new laws involving forwarding of
> messages, this email MAY be forwarded.
>
> Andrew Miskelly
> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [152.91.8.248]
From: "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Alice Springs predicted maximum
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 11:11:45 +1100
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<x-html>
<html>
<DIV>
<P>Morning all,</P>
<P>Was very surprised to see the predicted maximum for Alice Springs today - 18 degrees.&nbsp; If this eventuates, I wonder whether this would be close to a record low for this time of year?</P>
<P>Michael</P></DIV><br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-html>
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victorian rainfall - 24 hours to 9am
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 11:08:29 +1100
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Victorian rainfall totals for those who can't access them:
(this is the readable version as opposed to the tricky version that I
emailed before <sigh>)

DAILY RAINFALL BULLETIN
Rainfall for the 24 Hours to 9am Thursday,  22  March  2001
Annuello 10
Mildura 3
Ouyen 9
Walpeup 11
Wycheproof 6
Halls Gap 18
Horsham 6
Stawell 8
Shepparton 3
Beechworth 14
Corryong 12
Euroa 10
Tallangatta 13
Gabo Is 18
Drouin12
Latrobe Valley
Wilsons Prom 13
Dunns Hill 6
Melbourne 6
Melbourne AP 10
Rosebud 28
Wonthaggi 34
Anglesea 38
Avalon aws 45
Ballan 42
Laverton aws 18
Heathcote 21
Kyneton 27
Yea 5
Ararat 27
Ballarat 23
Aireys Inlet aws 24
Apollo Bay 11
Cape Otway 17
Mortlake aws 6
Port Fairy aws 3
Weeaproinah 24



Jane
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Alice Springs predicted maximum
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 11:34:42 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> <html>
> <DIV>
> <P>Morning all,</P>
> <P>Was very surprised to see the predicted maximum for Alice Springs today - 18 degrees.&nbsp; If this eventuates, I wonder whether this would be close to a record low for this time of year?</P>
> <P>Michael</P></DIV><br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>

As discussed elsewhere, this would actually be warmer than yesterday.
The rounded maximum was 15 (according to the SA bulletin). We're
now waiting for the decimals to come in to see if Alice Springs (or
either of the other two NT stations that had max temps of 15 to
3 p.m. yesterday) equal or break the NT March record of 15.2.

Adelaide's max yesterday was 15.8 (actually set in the early hours
of this morning, but only 0.3 above the daytime max yesterday). This
is the 2nd lowest on record for March, and the lowest since 1946.

Canberra could be one to watch today - 10.5 and going nowhere fast.
Their March record is 12.3, surprisingly modest given the January 
and February records of 12.2 and 12.0 respectively.

Blair

Stop press: the NT numbers have just come in - 14.0 at Curtin Springs.
Alice Springs (15.0) also broke the old NT record.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [210.8.232.5]
From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victorian rainfall - 24 hours to 9am
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 01:09:03 
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<x-flowed>
Thanks Jane,

Looks like the list is being rapidly outdated especially in
the Central District.

When I last looked at 11.30am, Melbourne Airport had
already clocked up 37.2mm from 9.00am. I know its been
dry but I guess some flood warnings may be on the way??

Patrick

Canberra currently (12noon) has passing drizzle showers in a
NW airstream and a temp of 10 (a pretty emphatice end to the
recent record period of 20+ temps). I am interested to see if
any of the wrap around cloud that has soaked Melbourne ends
up bringing showers to Canberra - satpix show it has just
reached the western side of the Brindabellas. The ranges will
probably squeeze most of any remaining precipitation but we
will see...

I only hope we get a couple of repeats of these cold pools from
late May and into the Winter. Reports of snow are causing my
skis to get restless...

>From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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>Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victorian rainfall - 24 hours to 9am
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>
>Victorian rainfall totals for those who can't access them:
>(this is the readable version as opposed to the tricky version that I
>emailed before <sigh>)
>
>DAILY RAINFALL BULLETIN
>Rainfall for the 24 Hours to 9am Thursday,  22  March  2001
>Annuello 10
>Mildura 3
>Ouyen 9
>Walpeup 11
>Wycheproof 6
>Halls Gap 18
>Horsham 6
>Stawell 8
>Shepparton 3
>Beechworth 14
>Corryong 12
>Euroa 10
>Tallangatta 13
>Gabo Is 18
>Drouin12
>Latrobe Valley
>Wilsons Prom 13
>Dunns Hill 6
>Melbourne 6
>Melbourne AP 10
>Rosebud 28
>Wonthaggi 34
>Anglesea 38
>Avalon aws 45
>Ballan 42
>Laverton aws 18
>Heathcote 21
>Kyneton 27
>Yea 5
>Ararat 27
>Ballarat 23
>Aireys Inlet aws 24
>Apollo Bay 11
>Cape Otway 17
>Mortlake aws 6
>Port Fairy aws 3
>Weeaproinah 24
>
>
>
>Jane
>---------------------------------------
>Jane ONeill - Melbourne
>cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
>Melbourne Storm Chasers
>http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
>ASWA - Victoria
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>---------------------------------------
>
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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [210.8.232.5]
From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Alice Springs predicted maximum
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 01:27:24 
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<x-flowed>
Blair, the sun has come out and the temp has gone up to
11. There is still lots of heavy cloud around and the
middle level "wrap around" can be seen to the west so
that will help keep temps low - especially if there is more
rain to come.

At its 11.30 issue, the BoM has revised its estimated
max down to 17 (was 20).

My estimate is for 15 later this afternoon - but we shall see.

Patrick

>Canberra could be one to watch today - 10.5 and going nowhere fast.
>Their March record is 12.3, surprisingly modest given the January
>and February records of 12.2 and 12.0 respectively.
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</x-flowed>
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian rainfall - 24 hours to 9am
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 12:53:07 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> Thanks Jane,
> 
> Looks like the list is being rapidly outdated especially in
> the Central District.
> 
> When I last looked at 11.30am, Melbourne Airport had
> already clocked up 37.2mm from 9.00am. I know its been
> dry but I guess some flood warnings may be on the way??
> 

74.6 now and no sign of easing from the radar. We could well be looking
at an event of major proportions here; a 100mm+ 24-hour fall is 
probably close to a 1-on-50 year event here, and they're well on the 
way....

No flood warnings yet.

Blair

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Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 13:58:24 +1100
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: Melb rain
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Looks like Melbourne Airport is about to crack 100mm

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDO30V01.shtml <-- latest Melb obs.

currently 97.8 .. not bad since 9am.

Matt smith

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From: "Ben Tichborne" <tich at netaccess.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Re: SA snowfalls
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 15:11:05 +1200
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> This has been a hobby of mine for some time, assembling historical
accounts
> of snowfalls in SA.  Many local histories have pictures in them, and here
> are the first few, with more to follow.  I'm working on putting pictures
on
> a seperate page to speed up loading of the thumbnails.


> An absolutely bona fide winters day here in Adelaide.  Feels like June not
> March.  Low scudding cloud and near continual drizzle with the odd heavier
> shower embedded.  Strongish SW winds too.  I make only 13 degrees at
> 1.30CST.

Sounds like a situation that would bring snow to the higher SA hills in
winter, though I couldn't imagine it snowing there in March. BTW, while in
Adelaide last November, I looked at some old newspaper microfilms at the
State Library and found out that in July 1951, not only was there snow on Mt
Lofty, but flakes fell in Adelaide city as well. How often has this happened
in the city's history?.


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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Flash Flooding in Brisbane Last Night
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 13:10:19 +1000
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Hi Anthony,

32mm at Mt. Crosby between 6:00pm and midnight, mainly a heavy sort of
drizzle, but there was ample evidence at Sumner this morning of another
deluge not unlike Mar 9th, with crap strewn all over the external staircase
from a repeat of the waterfall event, and half an inch of gooey yellow mud
all over the walk down below.

John.
>snip

Subject: aus-wx: Flash Flooding in Brisbane Last Night

Hi all,

Page 2 of the Courier Mail has some information on the flash flooding
from last night...Stones Corner seems the worst to be effected (also the
worst effected on the devasting March 9 floods).  The article also goes
to say that cars were "swallowed" and businesses on the southside were
once again effected.  Strong winds took down power poles and blacked out
Kallangur, Murarrie, Jimboomba, upper Caboolture, Red Hill and
Paddington.

It wasn't as bad as March 9 though - the storms were slow moving but
they weren't as persistant as March 9.  After the main cell went through
the south side, another cell developed over the CBD and followed it,
which is probably what caused a lot of the flooding, it was much more
intense than yellow and green - I had 30mm in 12mins!  (180mm/hr
rainrate) and I was on the edge of it, the heavier rain was to my west.
--
Anthony Cornelius

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X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 14:48:54 +1100 (EDT)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Melb broad loop from yesterday
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Hi all

Here was the Melbourne broad loop from yesterday showing the front
wrapping around the low pressure system:

http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_03_21/today.html


Cheers

On Wed, 21 Mar 2001, Jane ONeill wrote:

> ...around lunchtime you were treated with a synoptic scale view of
> the cirrus band wrapping into the low NE - through SE - S - SW & up to the
> west.  By 2pm there were congesting Cu around the SW & W quadrants.  By 3pm
> there were 2 active cells to the NW of Abbotsford - one moved over us to the
> SE, but the other must have got up further & faster & was dragged off the the
> SW (this was NOT a right mover).
> 

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

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From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at australia.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melb rain
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 15:50:09 +1100
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Damn greedy elbournites :oP

SEND SOME WATER OUT HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

From a very thirsty Wimmera (PaulY)

Paul Yole
State Rep - ASWA Vic
Comms Officer - Murtoa CFA
(041) 836 9256
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

----- Original Message -----
From: "Matt Smith" <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 1:58 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Melb rain


>
> Looks like Melbourne Airport is about to crack 100mm
>
> http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDO30V01.shtml <-- latest Melb obs.
>
> currently 97.8 .. not bad since 9am.
>
> Matt smith
>
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From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at australia.edu>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Storm/Squall warning for the Melb area
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 15:55:31 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.600" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Hey all........just nboticed this came out</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>IDW10V01<BR><BR>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY<BR>VICTORIAN REGIONAL 
OFFICE<BR><BR>NEWS FLASH - FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST<BR><BR>Priority<BR>Severe 
Weather Warning<BR><BR>for Western and Northern Suburbs.<BR><BR>Issued at 2:44pm 
on Thursday the 22nd of March 2001&nbsp; <BR><BR>Rain heavy at times in the area 
from around Tullamarine to Laverton over the<BR>past few hours has moved a 
little to the east with the heaviest rain now<BR>affecting the northern suburbs. 
The rain is expected to persist in the northern<BR>suburbs but be lighter in the 
west. The rainfall rate is expected to decrease by<BR>early 
evening.<BR><BR>Flash flooding is likely to continue for the next few 
hours.<BR><BR>This warning will be updated at 5pm Thursday and should not be 
used after this<BR>time.<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Paul Yole<BR>State Rep - ASWA Vic<BR>Comms Officer - Murtoa 
CFA<BR>(041) 836 9256<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flash Flooding in Brisbane Last Night
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 18:21:33 +1100
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Anthony, John

A cool 72mm in Cleveland in last night's storm. Mostly within 1 hour. I note
the very adjacent suburb of Ormiston had 91 mm (Although I often have a few
suspicions here!)

Woke up to find drainage system had failed and a significant portion of my
front yard washed into street. Such is life !

Regards
Simon


----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 2:10 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Flash Flooding in Brisbane Last Night


> Hi Anthony,
>
> 32mm at Mt. Crosby between 6:00pm and midnight, mainly a heavy sort of
> drizzle, but there was ample evidence at Sumner this morning of another
> deluge not unlike Mar 9th, with crap strewn all over the external
staircase
> from a repeat of the waterfall event, and half an inch of gooey yellow mud
> all over the walk down below.
>
> John.
> >snip
>
> Subject: aus-wx: Flash Flooding in Brisbane Last Night
>
> Hi all,
>
> Page 2 of the Courier Mail has some information on the flash flooding
> from last night...Stones Corner seems the worst to be effected (also the
> worst effected on the devasting March 9 floods).  The article also goes
> to say that cars were "swallowed" and businesses on the southside were
> once again effected.  Strong winds took down power poles and blacked out
> Kallangur, Murarrie, Jimboomba, upper Caboolture, Red Hill and
> Paddington.
>
> It wasn't as bad as March 9 though - the storms were slow moving but
> they weren't as persistant as March 9.  After the main cell went through
> the south side, another cell developed over the CBD and followed it,
> which is probably what caused a lot of the flooding, it was much more
> intense than yellow and green - I had 30mm in 12mins!  (180mm/hr
> rainrate) and I was on the edge of it, the heavier rain was to my west.
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
>
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X-Originating-IP: [203.2.32.155]
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Meteorite in NE NSW
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 20:19:28 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 22 Mar 2001 09:19:28.0369 (UTC) FILETIME=[31F85E10:01C0B2B1]
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<x-flowed>
Hi All!
My family and I were just watching Mir for the last time when an absolutely 
HUGE meteorite crashed over our heads. This was for real. It looked like a 
glowing orange ball with sparks flying off it as it moved across the sky!!! 
By the time we were on the ground with disbelief it burnt out. I was 
awaiting a large crash but nothing! If any of you can confirm this it would 
be great!! I have never seen anything like this before in my life! My heart 
is certainly racing. Maybe parts of Mir are already falling off!
Dave Ellem



Dave Ellem
Storm Chaser From Wollongbar,
Northern Rivers,
NE NSW

_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather-Approval" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Offtopic: Mir over Brisbane
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 19:38:51 +1000
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Hello All,

The weather cooperated for MIR's last visual pass over Brisbane.  (At least
where I live.)  Tonight, MIR would have been a bit of a disappointment for
the first time satellite trackers.  (A few weeks ago it passed south-north,
very bright, and gave a good illusion of speed.)

What was even more impressive was a very bright meteorite that passed
overhead at the same time.  It spanned around 50 degrees of sky.  It was
very bright yellow and green, trailing sparks.  (I actually thought, at
first, that some idiot has let off a firework.  As they tend to do in these
parts.)

Nice drop of rain last night too.  The rain gauge recorded around 40 mm is
presently being vigorously defended by a squadron of killer mosquitoes.  It
is rather warm, still, and sticky.


Regards,

Anthony Spierings
as029 at bigpond.net.au


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 20:59:35 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Meteorite in NE NSW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi Dave,

I was thinking about your final statement that parts were already falling 
off. I wouldn't be surprised. Damn I missed it..

Jimmy Deguara

At 08:19 PM 22/03/01 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi All!
>My family and I were just watching Mir for the last time when an 
>absolutely HUGE meteorite crashed over our heads. This was for real. It 
>looked like a glowing orange ball with sparks flying off it as it moved 
>across the sky!!! By the time we were on the ground with disbelief it 
>burnt out. I was awaiting a large crash but nothing! If any of you can 
>confirm this it would be great!! I have never seen anything like this 
>before in my life! My heart is certainly racing. Maybe parts of Mir are 
>already falling off!
>Dave Ellem
>
>
>
>Dave Ellem
>Storm Chaser From Wollongbar,
>Northern Rivers,
>NE NSW
>
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
From: "Anthony Spierings" <as029 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Flash Flooding in Brisbane Last Night
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 20:04:16 +1000
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Hello All,

Following on from Anthony's message:  This article appeared in the Courier
Mail 19/3/01.

http://users.bigpond.net.au/spierings/flood_control.gif  File size is 380
kB.

The newspaper article may be a bit better balanced than my rantings.
However, notice the magical Q100 slips in!

Regards,

Anthony Spierings
as029 at bigpond.net.au






> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Anthony
> Cornelius
> Sent: Thursday, 22 March 2001 6:58 AM
> To: Australian Weather Mailing List
> Subject: aus-wx: Flash Flooding in Brisbane Last Night
>
>
> Hi all,
>
> Page 2 of the Courier Mail has some information on the flash flooding
> from last night...Stones Corner seems the worst to be effected (also the
> worst effected on the devasting March 9 floods).  The article also goes
> to say that cars were "swallowed" and businesses on the southside were
> once again effected.  Strong winds took down power poles and blacked out
> Kallangur, Murarrie, Jimboomba, upper Caboolture, Red Hill and
> Paddington.
>
> It wasn't as bad as March 9 though - the storms were slow moving but
> they weren't as persistant as March 9.  After the main cell went through
> the south side, another cell developed over the CBD and followed it,
> which is probably what caused a lot of the flooding, it was much more
> intense than yellow and green - I had 30mm in 12mins!  (180mm/hr
> rainrate) and I was on the edge of it, the heavier rain was to my west.
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: "John Graham" <gorzzzz at dingoblue.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Meteorite in NE NSW
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 21:21:51 +1100
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Hi Dave,
What time was that tonight????....I saw a meteorite come down over
Meerschaum Vale way about 8:10(???) tonight...looked unreal as it came down,
split into 2 just before it disappeared..what a site...pity I didn't see mir
tho'...grrrrrr
John from Ballina
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 8:19 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Meteorite in NE NSW


> Hi All!
> My family and I were just watching Mir for the last time when an
absolutely
> HUGE meteorite crashed over our heads. This was for real. It looked like a
> glowing orange ball with sparks flying off it as it moved across the
sky!!!
> By the time we were on the ground with disbelief it burnt out. I was
> awaiting a large crash but nothing! If any of you can confirm this it
would
> be great!! I have never seen anything like this before in my life! My
heart
> is certainly racing. Maybe parts of Mir are already falling off!
> Dave Ellem
>
>
>
> Dave Ellem
> Storm Chaser From Wollongbar,
> Northern Rivers,
> NE NSW
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz
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Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 23:48:36 +1200
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: John Gaul <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
Subject: aus-wx: Re:Omega block
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

We have an Omega Block Situation over us at the moment.
For much of New Zealand it means
:No rain
:No interesting weather 
:No relief to the very dry weather we are experiencing here at the moment.


IT'S SO BORING !!!

 

John Gaul
NZ Thunderstorm Society


>yes john it is rather boring but the Aussies's don't seem to agree!!
> what's an Omega Block???


>Bill Gaul
>NZ Anticyclone Fanciers Association

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 23:22:48 +1100
From: Aussiegirl <april at ains.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win95; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Omega block
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with a bit of luck... MIR might crash into NZ and make your day !

John Gaul wrote:

> We have an Omega Block Situation over us at the moment.
> For much of New Zealand it means
> :No rain
> :No interesting weather
> :No relief to the very dry weather we are experiencing here at the moment.
>
> IT'S SO BORING !!!
>
>
>
> John Gaul
> NZ Thunderstorm Society
>
> >yes john it is rather boring but the Aussies's don't seem to agree!!
> > what's an Omega Block???
>
> >Bill Gaul
> >NZ Anticyclone Fanciers Association
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at australia.edu>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: WHAT IS THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 23:33:46 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.600" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Hey all,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Talking to Adam Cole in IRC atm, and he just showed me a pic 
which has us both wondering what it is. Adam took the photo on the 12th March  at  
5:30pm in Warwick while standing on his roof. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><A 
href="http://www.flexi.net.au/~acole/Untitled/Image11.jpg">http://www.flexi.net.au/~acole/Untitled/Image11.jpg</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Send all responses to <A 
href="mailto:acole at flexi.net.au">acole at flexi.net.au</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>PaulY</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Paul Yole<BR>State Rep - ASWA Vic<BR>Comms Officer - Murtoa 
CFA<BR>(041) 836 9256<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 00:56:17 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Meteorite in NE NSW > Mir descent
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Dave and All.

>Hi All!
>My family and I were just watching Mir for the last time when an absolutely
>HUGE meteorite crashed over our heads. This was for real. It looked like a
>glowing orange ball with sparks flying off it as it moved across the sky!!!
>By the time we were on the ground with disbelief it burnt out. I was
>awaiting a large crash but nothing! If any of you can confirm this it would
>be great!! I have never seen anything like this before in my life! My heart
>is certainly racing. Maybe parts of Mir are already falling off!
>Dave Ellem
>
>
>
>Dave Ellem
>Storm Chaser From Wollongbar,
>Northern Rivers,
>NE NSW

Sounds to me like a rather spectacular fireball meteor.

Whilst fireballs brighter than the planet Venus are not uncommon,
occasionally they are are quite outstanding in their brilliance, making the
landscape clearly visible at night, or able be easily seen during daylight.

It was unlikely to be part of Mir, as the breakup will not begin until some
time after the final firing of the engine to slow it down.

Once parts start to come off the breakup of the main structure should
proceed fairly quickly with the whole breakup phase probably taking place
over a period of no more than a few minutes from the first bits breaking
free. The once impressive Mir will then be reduced to a diverging group of
very hot pieces of falling junk.

Regards,
Carl.


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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Alice Springs predicted maximum
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 15:42:25 GMT
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On Thu, 22 Mar 2001 11:34:42 +1100 (EST), Blair Trewin
<blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au> wrote:

>As discussed elsewhere, this would actually be warmer than yesterday.
>The rounded maximum was 15 (according to the SA bulletin). We're
>now waiting for the decimals to come in to see if Alice Springs (or
>either of the other two NT stations that had max temps of 15 to
>3 p.m. yesterday) equal or break the NT March record of 15.2.
>
>Stop press: the NT numbers have just come in - 14.0 at Curtin Springs.
>Alice Springs (15.0) also broke the old NT record.
>

Curtin Springs came in with 14.4. SILO database, which normally gives
Alice Springs to the decimal, gave the airport as 15.0. Kulgera missed
out with a balmy 16.5.

Laurier

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Wednesday's extraordinary weather
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 15:42:22 GMT
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I've written up Wednesday's gamut of weather at
http://www.australianweathernews.com. There are some interesting
animations, too -- the cloud development and movement over SE
Australia was particularly complex.  It was an extraordinary day in
that every state and territory had something major to report -- record
rainfall in WA and NT, coldest day on record in NT, very cold, wet and
windy in SA, storms in SE Qld, heavy rain in northern NSW, Vic and
Tas. Well, I suppose the ACT doesn't get a mention, but just about
everywhere else does.

I haven't seen any mention of the WA and NT rainfall events here
(apart from a brief reference in my post yesterday), but they should
be noted. It was quite a remarkable concentration of precipitation for
March. Derby AP had 101mm in 3 hours, with a 24 hour total of 152 --
30mm above the March record in 37 years of observation. Even more
amazing, though, was the downpour that Rabbit Flat received -- 171mm
in 12 hours to 9am, for a 24 hour total of 183mm. The previous
all-time record was 139.7, set on 2 Feb 1973, in 31 years of
observation. Given that this area has about the lowest raingauge
density in Australia, you can only guess at what the highest
recordings in the south Kimberley/Tanami Desert might have been.

-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://www.australianweathernews.com
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X-Originating-IP: [203.2.32.118]
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Meteorite in NE NSW
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 06:48:42 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 22 Mar 2001 19:48:42.0921 (UTC) FILETIME=[196FD190:01C0B309]
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<x-flowed>
Hi John,
It apperaed just as we caught a glimps of Mir to the W an 8.11pm. It came 
approx. from the E to the W. From what I recall it may have split into two 
just as it disapperaed, maybe not (I was on the ground with disbelief 
remember!!!). I don't know where it crashed, all I know is that it was 
pretty darn big and not too far away!!!


>From: "John Graham" <gorzzzz at dingoblue.net.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Meteorite in NE NSW
>Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 21:21:51 +1100
>
>Hi Dave,
>What time was that tonight????....I saw a meteorite come down over
>Meerschaum Vale way about 8:10(???) tonight...looked unreal as it came 
>down,
>split into 2 just before it disappeared..what a site...pity I didn't see 
>mir
>tho'...grrrrrr
>John from Ballina
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 8:19 PM
>Subject: aus-wx: Meteorite in NE NSW
>
>
> > Hi All!
> > My family and I were just watching Mir for the last time when an
>absolutely
> > HUGE meteorite crashed over our heads. This was for real. It looked like 
>a
> > glowing orange ball with sparks flying off it as it moved across the
>sky!!!
> > By the time we were on the ground with disbelief it burnt out. I was
> > awaiting a large crash but nothing! If any of you can confirm this it
>would
> > be great!! I have never seen anything like this before in my life! My
>heart
> > is certainly racing. Maybe parts of Mir are already falling off!
> > Dave Ellem
> >
> >
> >
> > Dave Ellem
> > Storm Chaser From Wollongbar,
> > Northern Rivers,
> > NE NSW
> >
> > 
>_________________________________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at 
>http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
From: "Adam Mayo" <oyam at bigpond.com>
To: "Australian Severe Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx:  Meteorite in NE NSW
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 08:00:13 +1100
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Hi David and everyone,

We also saw a large meteorite in the NE sky from Manly at the same time, it
appeared a light greenish colour and a long way away but also going from
East to West. It was large and didn't break up before it disappeared from
our view.

We are considering going to Bilgola Lookout this afternoon to watch for any
sightings of Mir.  Doubtful maybe, but it would be annoying if we missed out
on anything.

Judy Mayo

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 08:09:31 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Congratulations to Clyve Herbert and His Award!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all!

Clyve Herbert received an award yesterday (Thursday the 22nd of March)
in recognition for his excellence in storm spotter reporting.  Of which
one of his best achievements was the in depth Paraparap report!  It was
presented at the BoM yesterday in front of 50 or so other high profiles,
by John Zillman the President of the WMO (World Meteorological
Organisation).  The WMO presented five awards to Australian people, so
Clyve did very well to receive this!

I believe the Victorian severe weather section is also very pleased to
see Clyve receive this award.

I'm sure I speak on everyone's behalf here on congratulating Clyve on
his tremendous effort and dedication to weather and thunderstorm
reporting!!!
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 08:43:11 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: SA snowfalls
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

>> This has been a hobby of mine for some time, assembling historical
>accounts
>> of snowfalls in SA.  Many local histories have pictures in them, and here
>> are the first few, with more to follow.  I'm working on putting pictures
>on
>> a seperate page to speed up loading of the thumbnails.
>
>
>> An absolutely bona fide winters day here in Adelaide.  Feels like June not
>> March.  Low scudding cloud and near continual drizzle with the odd heavier
>> shower embedded.  Strongish SW winds too.  I make only 13 degrees at
>> 1.30CST.
>
>Sounds like a situation that would bring snow to the higher SA hills in
>winter, though I couldn't imagine it snowing there in March. BTW, while in
>Adelaide last November, I looked at some old newspaper microfilms at the
>State Library and found out that in July 1951, not only was there snow on Mt
>Lofty, but flakes fell in Adelaide city as well. How often has this happened
>in the city's history?.

As far as I know Ben, Its never snowed at either the old West Terrace site
or the newer Kenttown one.  Some of the higher foothills suburbs in the
200-300m range would get the odd fall though, while places like Stirling
and Crafers at 550-600m would see it fall almost every year.  I'm putting
up some more photos of SA country falls tomorrow, and yes - 1951 does seem
to have been a big fall in lots of places.

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Congratulations to Clyve Herbert and His Award!
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 10:23:51 +1100
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Congratulations Clyve!!!!!!  This is a wonderful achievement!!

It's pleasing to see that the BoM recognises (and with this award, very
publicly indeed) the role that storm spotters play.

Jane
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------

Hi all!

Clyve Herbert received an award yesterday (Thursday the 22nd of March)
in recognition for his excellence in storm spotter reporting.  Of which
one of his best achievements was the in depth Paraparap report!  It was
presented at the BoM yesterday in front of 50 or so other high profiles,
by John Zillman the President of the WMO (World Meteorological
Organisation).  The WMO presented five awards to Australian people, so
Clyve did very well to receive this!

I believe the Victorian severe weather section is also very pleased to
see Clyve receive this award.

I'm sure I speak on everyone's behalf here on congratulating Clyve on
his tremendous effort and dedication to weather and thunderstorm
reporting!!!
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Congratulations to Clyve Herbert and His Award!
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 10:52:03 +1100
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Well done Clive :)

Your emails are always appreciated.

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au or snowfall at optusnet.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 23, 2001 9:09 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Congratulations to Clyve Herbert and His Award!


> Hi all!
>
> Clyve Herbert received an award yesterday (Thursday the 22nd of March)
> in recognition for his excellence in storm spotter reporting.  Of which
> one of his best achievements was the in depth Paraparap report!  It was
> presented at the BoM yesterday in front of 50 or so other high profiles,
> by John Zillman the President of the WMO (World Meteorological
> Organisation).  The WMO presented five awards to Australian people, so
> Clyve did very well to receive this!
>
> I believe the Victorian severe weather section is also very pleased to
> see Clyve receive this award.
>
> I'm sure I speak on everyone's behalf here on congratulating Clyve on
> his tremendous effort and dedication to weather and thunderstorm
> reporting!!!
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [141.132.130.120]
From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: A good end to the Working Week, a good start to the weekend!
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 00:08:19 
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<x-flowed>

Hi Folks
Well hasn't Vic had a good time wx wise of late, PArtolled around Ballarat 
Wednesday Avo, went up Mt Buninyong took a few shots of the swirling Squall 
line that went through Ballarat, not a heck of a lot of rain, very wiondy 
though. Got a few snaps of some early season Cold Air Cbs which blew up and 
died as quick as looking at them! The air was dry and extremily unstable, 
with Cu's competeing for the best updraft. One minute ya saw a nice Cu Tower 
the nice, urghh where did it go! Then ya look around and a big fat Cold Air 
Cb is looking right at ya ready to roll through!
Well people there is more to come with a repeat CF and Low! Ballarat has 
late rain with t-storms on the cards.

Should have pics soon!
Cheers LEs
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 11:33:22 +1100 (EDT)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Wednesday's extraordinary weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Since work hasn't been too crash hot lately <groan>, I've added some more
loops to 

http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_03_21/today.html

showing Vis/IR/webcam images of Vic.


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

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X-Originating-IP: [203.0.101.2]
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WHAT IS THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 11:32:09 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Paul asked WHAT IS THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

>http://www.flexi.net.au/~acole/Untitled/Image11.jpg

I think these sort of interesting pics are of general interest Paul; hence 
my post to the list. IIRC, I had a look at this pic and the others in the 
sequence awhile ago when they were posted on BSC. My take: a shelf cloud  of 
a weakish/dying cell moving overhead - I 'think' the hill makes the lowered 
area along the gustfront look more substantial than what it really is. Check 
out the other pics and perhaps Adam can tell you the time at which they were 
taken.   Dave
_________________________________________________________________________
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From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne Airport - 99 not out
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 11:47:22 +1100 (EST)
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Melbourne Airport's rainfall ended up being stranded on 99 at the
declaration at 9 this morning - after rattling through the 60s, 70s 
and 80s with a string of 10-minute falls in the 5-7mm range, it got
the staggers just short of the century mark, taking half an hour to 
get from 97 to 98 and another hour to get to 99 before running out
of steam. 

Pity Steve Waugh couldn't get as far as 99 :-(

As far as I've seen 99 was the highest 24-hour total of the daily
reporting stations in Victoria. I was quite surprised that 
Lancefield, which I had thought would be in a highly favourable
position, only got 25 - they must have been just too far west for the
action. 

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "mark walton" <amwalton at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Hi All
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 17:04:42 +1100
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<x-html>
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Hi everyone,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp; My names Amy and i have just joined the mailing 
list and thought i'd say hello. I have always loved storms and i am currently 
studing Meteorology at Macquarie Uni, Sydney.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 14:24:31 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Record cold in Perth tonight?
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FORECAST FOR THE PERTH METROPOLITAN AREA
Issued at 11:37am WST on Friday the 23rd of March 2001 for the remainder of
today and Saturday 

FORECAST:
Fine. A cold night. Fresh S/SE winds tending moderate E/SE tomorrow.


    TODAY'S TEMPERATURE:                   Maximum: 21 
    TOMORROW'S TEMPERATURES:  Minimum: 6   Maximum: 23 
    TODAY'S UV INDEX:     7 [VERY HIGH]  

The March record for the city site is 7.7C, so that looks like it could be
broken today, but the current site is not directly comparable to the old one.

The Perth Airport record for March is 5.5C, unlikely to get that low there,
as its usually always warmer than the city site, but its possible. The
southern suburb of Jandakot is usually the coldest from the lot, and it
will be interesting to see how low it gets there tonight.

Its currently only 20.9C at 2:10pm WST, which is pretty low for March under
full sun, dew point is only at 0.7C, the wind factor is of course going to
be the main thing that may stop it from reaching a record.

Jacob


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From: "Chris Daley" <jindivik at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Congratulations to Clyve Herbert and His Award!
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 17:38:12 +1100
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Congratulations Clyve, a well deserved award.

Hope your gonna show it off at the next meeting.

Chris

----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 23, 2001 9:09 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Congratulations to Clyve Herbert and His Award!


> Hi all!
>
> Clyve Herbert received an award yesterday (Thursday the 22nd of March)
> in recognition for his excellence in storm spotter reporting.  Of which
> one of his best achievements was the in depth Paraparap report!  It was
> presented at the BoM yesterday in front of 50 or so other high profiles,
> by John Zillman the President of the WMO (World Meteorological
> Organisation).  The WMO presented five awards to Australian people, so
> Clyve did very well to receive this!
>
> I believe the Victorian severe weather section is also very pleased to
> see Clyve receive this award.
>
> I'm sure I speak on everyone's behalf here on congratulating Clyve on
> his tremendous effort and dedication to weather and thunderstorm
> reporting!!!
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 18:28:37 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Congratulations to Clyve Herbert and His Award!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Well done Clyve,

I think you deserve the honour of such a reward and I would have loved to 
be there to see it presented.

For those that don't know, Clyve has been storm spotting for quite a few 
years and has had an interest in storms for well over 30 years - in 
isolation until recently.

Once again well done. This is great news.

Jimmy Deguara

At 08:09 AM 23/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi all!
>
>Clyve Herbert received an award yesterday (Thursday the 22nd of March)
>in recognition for his excellence in storm spotter reporting.  Of which
>one of his best achievements was the in depth Paraparap report!  It was
>presented at the BoM yesterday in front of 50 or so other high profiles,
>by John Zillman the President of the WMO (World Meteorological
>Organisation).  The WMO presented five awards to Australian people, so
>Clyve did very well to receive this!
>
>I believe the Victorian severe weather section is also very pleased to
>see Clyve receive this award.
>
>I'm sure I speak on everyone's behalf here on congratulating Clyve on
>his tremendous effort and dedication to weather and thunderstorm
>reporting!!!
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
>Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 18:39:48 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hi All
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi Amy,

I was reading through the aussie-weather e-mails and thought I had read 
them all but the signal still suggested unread. And then I came across. I 
suppose the date may need to be fixed or something on your computer as it 
was up the list of e-mails.

Anyway, welcome to the list. Just for those who don't know Amy, she attends 
AMOS meetings - I suppose in particular the Weatherwatch meetings. She has 
promised to come along to an ASWA meeting - sorry Amy.

Seriously, it is great to have you on board amongst all the weather fans.


Jimmy Deguara

At 05:04 PM 22/03/01 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi everyone,
>    My names Amy and i have just joined the mailing list and thought i'd 
> say hello. I have always loved storms and i am currently studing 
> Meteorology at Macquarie Uni, Sydney.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 19:33:41 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 'Storm News'.....amazing!!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hey all,

I've just got the most pleasant shock by receiving the long awaited, all
new, singing and dancing 'Storm News MkII' and may I say what a stunning
and colourful tome it all is.  Total congats to all involved, Daniel, Matt,
James, Matthew, Michael, Jane and Anthony.  A change of binding and this
could be on the news stands ;)

On another note I see that some northern SA stations have recorded some
pretty cool temps [<16] today under this persistent rainband.  Any records
or near records floating around here Blair?

Phil

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 20:07:52 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: More SA Snow pics up
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Three more historical SA pics added.  Seems we've caught the July 1951
event on several.  It must have been a biggy....


http://www.cobweb.com.au/~paisley2/WeatherWX.html

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
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From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: New low.
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 20:34:30 +1100
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Hi all.
Good strength baroclinic zone generating a significant band of mid level
cloud heading southeast from SA to NSW and VIC,will wrap around the vigorous
new low developing southwest of Adelaide.A very nice cold air pool showing
up in the central Australian Bight,all this could come together tonight and
we may see another major rain situation for south-eastern Australia.Judging
by the movement of the mid level cloud band it looks favoured to affect the
north-eastern highlands of Victoria and adjacent snowy mountain area,but
convergence near to the trough and cold front should bring some more good
falls to other areas of Victoria also.Some potential for reasonable snow
falls over the Australian Alps later in the weekend.regards Clyve Herbert,.

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Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 23:17:42 +1200
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From: John Gaul <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Omega block
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>>

>> > what's an Omega Block???
>>
>> >Bill Gaul
>> >NZ Anticyclone Fanciers Association
------------------------------
An Omega Block is a 'blocking high" situation with 2 depressions on each
side of the high shaping the anticyclone so it looks like an omega symbol
hence the name.
These type of blocks are very rare.

John Gaul
NZTS - back in recess again here in east coast drought country.Dismal
weather.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 22:34:30 +1100
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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Evening all,

Some pretty interesting developments this evening in the SA region - a nice
prefrontal trough developed west of Kangaroo Island again (btw, has anyone
noticed this pattern where you tend to get 2 or 3 systems developing almost in
exactly the same place one after another).

I've put a couple of images (large, so I apologise for the time they take to
load - but the CSIRO image is a stunner)

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/230301.htm

Enjoy!!

Jane


--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

clyve herbert wrote:

> Hi all.
> Good strength baroclinic zone generating a significant band of mid level
> cloud heading southeast from SA to NSW and VIC,will wrap around the vigorous
> new low developing southwest of Adelaide.A very nice cold air pool showing
> up in the central Australian Bight,all this could come together tonight and
> we may see another major rain situation for south-eastern Australia.Judging
> by the movement of the mid level cloud band it looks favoured to affect the
> north-eastern highlands of Victoria and adjacent snowy mountain area,but
> convergence near to the trough and cold front should bring some more good
> falls to other areas of Victoria also.Some potential for reasonable snow
> falls over the Australian Alps later in the weekend.regards Clyve Herbert,.
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

--



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 04:42:25 -0800 (PST)
From: Avo <stormchaser_1 at excite.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 'Storm News'.....amazing!!!
X-Mailer: Excite Inbox
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I agree, Storm News is looking really spiffy. I say three cheers to the
"behind the scenes" crew. Take a bow people. 

Anyone thought of making it into an e-zine (sorry, but being in IT makes one
live and breath the net and associated technologies). Actually, even a WAP
or 3G site could be something to salivate upon. Imagine going storm chasing
and having all relevant details being updated/available on your mobile in
real time....

Just an "Are you pondering what I am pondering Pinky?..." type of thought.
Let's hope the resultant answer is not Pinky based though. For all of you
who are asking yourselves "what the..?" I apologise. Obviously not Pinky and
the Brain connesieurs.. hehe. (I know, but crazyness is a sign of sanity. I
think.. I hope......!)

Oh and Paul Graham if you are reading this - wha huppen to the storms you
assured me my new car would be baptised with on Wednesday????? I was lookin'
lookin' lookin' and nuffin! Damn, I got so bored driving around looking for
some action I nearly stopped off at an Autobarn to buy a disco ball and
fluffy dice...

:-)

Avo Ohanian
IT Support
Macquarie University, Sydney





_______________________________________________________
Send a cool gift with your E-Card
http://www.bluemountain.com/giftcenter/


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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 16:07:13 GMT
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I've written up Melbourne's Thursday event. Checking through all
available satpix, Skew-Ts, anals, etc., it seemed difficult to come up
with a mechanism to cause it. I write in the report: No thunder was
reported, cold upper air and its attendant surface low had moved away
to the east overnight, the Melbourne Airport balloon ascent at 9am
showed a conditionally stable (if very moist)  atmosphere with an
inversion at about 3,000 metres, CAPE, a measure of available energy,
was a low 32, low  level vorticity was modest and upper level
divergence was negative. Most of the atmospheric accompaniments 
one would expect with such an event were missing. So why did it
happen?

I found Clyve's note about the sudden temperature rise at Leopold
fascinating, and started looking closely at the half hourly surface
obs for Geelong, Laverton and Melbourne AP. My conclusion is that it
was a convergence line with a strong, moist SW feed and probably some
vorticity imparted by a brief westward extension to the circulation
then off the East Gippsland coast. Looking at the satpic animations,
it's hard to see a closed circulation east of Melbourne, but there was
certainly something going on there.

I haven't seen much comment on the mechanics of this unusual event on
the list. Any thoughts?


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://www.australianweathernews.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Geelong Weather Services" <gws at pipeline.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?
Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2001 13:28:10 +1100
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Hi all - Laurier's explanation looks pretty convincing to me: a similar
result occurred last October when prolonged rainfall totalling over 100 mm
between 23rd and 25th was produced by a similar wrap-around effect, but
without a noticeable temperature rise or SW feed.  Last Wednesday evening
there was a clear rotation showing on radar, centred over Pt Phillip Bay.
During Thursday, not only did Tullamarine receive 99 mm, but St Leonards on
the Bellarine Peninsula had 80 - the day after Geelong's downpour.
By the way - my congratulations to Clyve were meant to have been accompanied
by photos taken on the day with Ray Kollmorgen (BoM) and Barry Jones.  But
this list doesn't like my jpeg files or something.  Regards, Lindsay Smail.

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Laurier
Williams
Sent: Saturday, 24 March 2001 2:07 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?


I've written up Melbourne's Thursday event. Checking through all
available satpix, Skew-Ts, anals, etc., it seemed difficult to come up
with a mechanism to cause it. I write in the report: No thunder was
reported, cold upper air and its attendant surface low had moved away
to the east overnight, the Melbourne Airport balloon ascent at 9am
showed a conditionally stable (if very moist)  atmosphere with an
inversion at about 3,000 metres, CAPE, a measure of available energy,
was a low 32, low  level vorticity was modest and upper level
divergence was negative. Most of the atmospheric accompaniments
one would expect with such an event were missing. So why did it
happen?

I found Clyve's note about the sudden temperature rise at Leopold
fascinating, and started looking closely at the half hourly surface
obs for Geelong, Laverton and Melbourne AP. My conclusion is that it
was a convergence line with a strong, moist SW feed and probably some
vorticity imparted by a brief westward extension to the circulation
then off the East Gippsland coast. Looking at the satpic animations,
it's hard to see a closed circulation east of Melbourne, but there was
certainly something going on there.

I haven't seen much comment on the mechanics of this unusual event on
the list. Any thoughts?


--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://www.australianweathernews.com
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Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2001 13:53:58 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?
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<x-flowed>
Hi,

Although I didn't follow this event closely at all, I was wondering if 
there was a possibility of a warm front with this line of convergence.

Jimmy Deguara

At 01:28 PM 24/03/01 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi all - Laurier's explanation looks pretty convincing to me: a similar
>result occurred last October when prolonged rainfall totalling over 100 mm
>between 23rd and 25th was produced by a similar wrap-around effect, but
>without a noticeable temperature rise or SW feed.  Last Wednesday evening
>there was a clear rotation showing on radar, centred over Pt Phillip Bay.
>During Thursday, not only did Tullamarine receive 99 mm, but St Leonards on
>the Bellarine Peninsula had 80 - the day after Geelong's downpour.
>By the way - my congratulations to Clyve were meant to have been accompanied
>by photos taken on the day with Ray Kollmorgen (BoM) and Barry Jones.  But
>this list doesn't like my jpeg files or something.  Regards, Lindsay Smail.
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Laurier
>Williams
>Sent: Saturday, 24 March 2001 2:07 AM
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?
>
>
>I've written up Melbourne's Thursday event. Checking through all
>available satpix, Skew-Ts, anals, etc., it seemed difficult to come up
>with a mechanism to cause it. I write in the report: No thunder was
>reported, cold upper air and its attendant surface low had moved away
>to the east overnight, the Melbourne Airport balloon ascent at 9am
>showed a conditionally stable (if very moist)  atmosphere with an
>inversion at about 3,000 metres, CAPE, a measure of available energy,
>was a low 32, low  level vorticity was modest and upper level
>divergence was negative. Most of the atmospheric accompaniments
>one would expect with such an event were missing. So why did it
>happen?
>
>I found Clyve's note about the sudden temperature rise at Leopold
>fascinating, and started looking closely at the half hourly surface
>obs for Geelong, Laverton and Melbourne AP. My conclusion is that it
>was a convergence line with a strong, moist SW feed and probably some
>vorticity imparted by a brief westward extension to the circulation
>then off the East Gippsland coast. Looking at the satpic animations,
>it's hard to see a closed circulation east of Melbourne, but there was
>certainly something going on there.
>
>I haven't seen much comment on the mechanics of this unusual event on
>the list. Any thoughts?
>
>
>--
>Laurier Williams
>Australian Weather News & Links
>http://www.australianweathernews.com
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-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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From: "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Omega block
Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2001 16:11:33 +1100
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<x-html>
<html>
<DIV>
<P>John</P>
<P>I seem to remember in 1989 around March/April NZ had a similar period (don't know whether it was an Omega block).&nbsp; A friend of mine was over there then for three weeks and experienced no rain during her travels.&nbsp; At the same time Canberra had record March rainfall and high April rainfall.&nbsp; Do you recall this 'drought'?</P>
<P>Michael<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;An Omega Block is a 'blocking high&quot; situation with 2 depressions on each 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;side of the high shaping the anticyclone so it looks like an omega symbol 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;hence the name. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;These type of blocks are very rare. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;John Gaul 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;NZTS - back in recess again here in east coast drought country.Dismal 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;weather. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; <br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>
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From: "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: New low.
Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2001 16:25:45 +1100
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<x-html>
<html>
<DIV>
<P>(btw, has anyone noticed this pattern where you tend to get 2 or 3 systems developing almost in exactly the same place one after another). </P>
<P>Jane (et al)</P>
<P>I'm fascinated by these repeat situations (maybe its a craving for predictability)</P>
<P>I haven't noticed the 'threepeat low' in this spot you refer to but several winters ago, in July (may be drawing a long bow, comparison wise here!), there was a situation that impacted on Canberra,which caused about a week of contstant drizzle.&nbsp; This situation resulted from a broad triangular area of low pressure, relatively close, south east of the ACT, within which was spawned a slightly deeper low which moved around the three corners of the triangle, in a process that seemed to perpetuate itself.&nbsp; Again drawing that long bow, the repeating trough situations of last November, that caused heavy rain through a lot of Eastern New South Wales, is another recent phenomenum which seemed to re-occur.</P>
<P>Michael</P></DIV><br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>
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From: "Bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Wind the clock back
Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2001 20:44:46 +1100
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Just a reminder. Wind the clocks back tonight. I don't get it! I'm back to
quarter past 3 and its still dark.........
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)

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From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?
Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2001 21:41:39 +1100
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Hi Laurier.and all.
This is not the first time I have seen this type of  rain generating system
across central Victoria,I believe in 1977 a similar situation produced 177mm
in the Laverton area (92mm this time).A feature of this type of rain event
is a rather narrow and vigorous rain band moving from a southwest,south, or
southeast direction,its interesting to note that often the warmer air is on
the west side (at the surface at least). I personally call this situation a
"wrap around", some work has been done on this type of phenomena in the
British Isles , I think they call the synoptic situation a "bent back
occlusion" and this type of situation has produced narrow bands of heavy
rain there(and localised heavy snow also).From my obs the situation is
rather complex, the wrap around can be traced to an infeed band usually
moving from the north or northeast to the east of the low and then
converging into the low ,but sometimes the band wraps around the apparent
low centre with multible spiralls often in the mature stage (an occluded
low). This region has a very interesting set-up with colder air on the east
side and warmer air to the west also there appears to be a narrow warm
conveyer belt in the middle layers and generally all very moist,the region
appears to develop into  a strong convergence zone with most of the
precipitation developing in  the lower and mid levels with what appears to
be copious amounts of "warm rain",the type of rain is often of the small to
medium size (this may account for the lack of electrical activity) but I
also encountered short spells of very heavy and large drops from what are
possibly deeper and perhaps glaciated larger embedded cumuliform
developments.The structure of this Melbourne rain band showed 20 to 30 knot
south to south-westerly  winds on the west side of the rain band and only
light north to northeasterlie on the east side,it was markedly warmer on the
west side at the surface .Also there is possibly good upper surport along
the convergence line with relitivly strong upper winds of a southerly
componant.regards Clyve Herbert.--- Original Message -----
From: Laurier Williams <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 24, 2001 3:07 AM
Subject: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?


> I've written up Melbourne's Thursday event. Checking through all
> available satpix, Skew-Ts, anals, etc., it seemed difficult to come up
> with a mechanism to cause it. I write in the report: No thunder was
> reported, cold upper air and its attendant surface low had moved away
> to the east overnight, the Melbourne Airport balloon ascent at 9am
> showed a conditionally stable (if very moist)  atmosphere with an
> inversion at about 3,000 metres, CAPE, a measure of available energy,
> was a low 32, low  level vorticity was modest and upper level
> divergence was negative. Most of the atmospheric accompaniments
> one would expect with such an event were missing. So why did it
> happen?
>
> I found Clyve's note about the sudden temperature rise at Leopold
> fascinating, and started looking closely at the half hourly surface
> obs for Geelong, Laverton and Melbourne AP. My conclusion is that it
> was a convergence line with a strong, moist SW feed and probably some
> vorticity imparted by a brief westward extension to the circulation
> then off the East Gippsland coast. Looking at the satpic animations,
> it's hard to see a closed circulation east of Melbourne, but there was
> certainly something going on there.
>
> I haven't seen much comment on the mechanics of this unusual event on
> the list. Any thoughts?
>
>
> --
> Laurier Williams
> Australian Weather News & Links
> http://www.australianweathernews.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?
Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2001 12:16:41 -0000
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Everybody,

From what I've read of this is there the possibility of an upper trough /
anafront, katafront/dryline or bentback occlusion?

Any upper charts available, anyone???

Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
UK Storm Chasers,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear 54-59.5N 01-30W
www.uksevereweather.org.uk

Wallsend StormCam: www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?
Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2001 12:10:40 -0000
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Everyone,

Backbent occlusions  (and anafronts) can be a source of severe localised
heavy rain (and occasional snow) in the United Kingdom, but 100mm /hr  is
somewhat exceptional for this kind of event here!

They can be tornadic but AFAIK this seems to be confined to these islands.
They're worth chasing as long as you can get at them on a decent road as
they can also be high speed events - 30kts+ at the surface are not uncommon.

These events are much more common in our wintertime.


Les (UK)
Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
UK Storm Chasers,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear 54-59.5N 01-30W
www.uksevereweather.org.uk

Wallsend StormCam: www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 24, 2001 10:41 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?


I personally call this situation a
> "wrap around", some work has been done on this type of phenomena in the
> British Isles , I think they call the synoptic situation a "bent back
> occlusion" and this type of situation has produced narrow bands of heavy
> rain there(and localised heavy snow also).

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X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 08:23:41 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

>Everyone,

All this talk about occlusions leads one to wonder if:

a] they are real in an Australian context
b] if they are why they are not shown on the MSL analysis with the typical
northern hemisphere occluded symbols?

Comments?

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?
Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2001 22:09:48 -0000
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This is a (northern hemisphere) website that'll give you more isenotropes
than you can shake a stick at: all the major frontal events are described
here (:

http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/satmanu3.0/manual/satmanu/manual/cmmenu.htm

Les




Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
UK Storm Chasers,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear 54-59.5N 01-30W
www.uksevereweather.org.uk

Wallsend StormCam: www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "Phil Bagust" <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 24, 2001 10:53 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?


> >Everyone,
>
> All this talk about occlusions leads one to wonder if:
>
> a] they are real in an Australian context
> b] if they are why they are not shown on the MSL analysis with the typical
> northern hemisphere occluded symbols?
>
> Comments?
>
> Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
> - - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
>       "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?
Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2001 22:56:31 -0000
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It's just occured to me that this may be a MISOcyclonic event. Les Lemon,
God of Radar, you in here????

Les
Les Crossan & Christine Challen,
UK Storm Chasers,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear 54-59.5N 01-30W
www.uksevereweather.org.uk

Wallsend StormCam: www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 08:56:08 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: NSW bushwalking time
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,

With NSW copping the usual Victorian type weather :), I think it is time to 
go for an organised bushwalk and picnic in the jungle. I want to use this 
buskwalk to bring those in the mtns and Sydney to meet for the first time 
in most cases. We can end it with either drinks at a local pub or perhaps a 
cup of coffee whatever. I am easy.

Are there anyone who have any ideas. Please liaise with Mario Orazem 
<stormtwist at yahoo.com> about any ideas of a good bushwalk. Please steer 
away from Katoomba and its parking fees.

Over to Mario and a few ideas directed to him and we can then organise a date.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne severe weather.
Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2001 23:10:48 -0000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Everyone,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Whoops everybody, got my terms wrong - the event 
that dumped 100mm of rain on Melbourne Airport wasn't a MISOcyclone - it's an 
extratropical MESOcyclone. Apologies for this, everyone, and I've given myself 
500 lines "i shall not get weather terms wrong again" Been too long a day with 
my 3 year old multicell cluster (: </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>We encounter these fairly often in the UK and this 
is what I sent my state rep (MSC-Vic) earlier:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Jane,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>95% cert it's a backbent occlusion. Compare it with 
this:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/satmanu3.0/manual/satmanu/short/BbOccl.htm">http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/satmanu3.0/manual/satmanu/short/BbOccl.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Turn your monitor upside down and think the UK 
as&nbsp;Vic. [Australia] (:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The animated satpic at <A 
href="http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2001/03/20010322.htm">http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2001/03/20010322.htm</A>&nbsp;is 
a dead giveaway - the way the cloudband&nbsp;arches away and doubles back from 
the fairly obvious warm and cold front. We havn't seen a lot of these at 
55N&nbsp;this year.... they *can* be comman and even tornadic 
here.</FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Les Crossan &amp; Christine Challen,<BR>UK Storm 
Chasers,<BR>Wallsend, Tyne &amp; Wear 54-59.5N 01-30W<BR><A 
href="http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk">www.uksevereweather.org.uk</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Wallsend StormCam: <A 
href="http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm">www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: From Clyve.
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 12:39:26 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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To all.
Thanks to all who sent their best wishes for my recent award,especially the
kind words from Lindsay Smail , Jimmy and Anthony (supercell and single
cell ),(sorry).There is however a much better thing to experience and that's
being out there at the back of Premer or chasing along a dirt track around
Mullaley after those fantastic open plains storms,but the best of all is to
sit in the evening and experience the endless talk of storms gone and others
to come with all of you ...regards Clyve Herbert.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Comma,!
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 12:51:00 +1000
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Hi all.
Spotted a small but interesting comma shape just south of Kangaroo isle this
morning looks to be at the top of a trough extending from  a low west of
Tasmania,this area  may become a little more interesting if it passes across
the southwest of Vic ,possibly a small cold pool at 500hpa,could be an area
for possible thunderstorm activity later on. regards Clyve H.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Hot'n'humid in Brisbane
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 13:52:56 +1000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi everyone</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Can't remember when hot and humid weather persisted 
thoughout the month of March for so long as it has done this year in 
Brisbane.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Usually January and February have the most muggy 
days ! But up to the end of March is a little bit unusual.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I know all you down south have been contemplating 
an early cold snap. But somehow I can't see it getting all the way up here with 
that "Omega" (new term for me) block high over NZ.&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A forecast 4 - 6 temp drop predicted here on 
Wednesday though.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
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Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 16:14:52 +1200
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: John Gaul <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Omega Block
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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John

>I seem to remember in 1989 around March/April NZ had a similar period
(don't know whether it >was an Omega block).  A friend of mine was over
there then for three weeks and experienced no >rain during her travels.  At
the same time Canberra had record March rainfall and high April >rainfall.
Do you recall this 'drought'?

Michael
 According to my weather records we experienced anticyclonic conditions at
that time with 2 great periods of anticyclonic dry weather with the
anticyclone touching 1040hPa. I recorded about 40mm of rain here for each
month and there were long dry periods.
We have only had 8.1mm so far this month. Av for March - 52.7mm
I'll get more info on this as it comes to hand.
32C at the moment here with a light NW. The high is moving off us at the
moment and should fade away in the next few days. The next high looks like
a good one as well later on this week here in NZ.

John Gaul
NZTS.




>An Omega Block is a 'blocking high" situation with 2 depressions on each 
>side of the high shaping the anticyclone so it looks like an omega symbol 
>hence the name. 
>These type of blocks are very rare. 
> 
>John Gaul 
>NZTS - back in recess again here in east coast drought country.Dismal 
>weather. 
> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 14:33:10 +1000
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Comma,!
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Hi Clyve

Nicely picked up ! The BoM have issued a severe wind advice for parts of SA
(including adelaide), a gust of 117km/h was recorded with the front, and is due
in Adeliade around 3pm. The BoM have analysed the comma as a low pressure centre
on the MSLP chart.
Also storms starting to fire along the trough in NSW on the northern
tablelands/MNC.
Anthony is out and about in QLD somewhere as well.
BTW congrat's on the award! Hope to get a look at it one day :)

Matt Smith


clyve herbert wrote:

> Hi all.
> Spotted a small but interesting comma shape just south of Kangaroo isle this
> morning looks to be at the top of a trough extending from  a low west of
> Tasmania,this area  may become a little more interesting if it passes across
> the southwest of Vic ,possibly a small cold pool at 500hpa,could be an area
> for possible thunderstorm activity later on. regards Clyve H.
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 16:31:35 +1000
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

as some people around the country are starting to suffer from SDS (Storm
Deprivation Syndrome) I thought I'd share this with you courtesy of
David Drummond from the wx-chase list in the USA where they have had a
small foretaste of things to come, but are still waiting.......

...........................................................

Something I came across I thought most of you would get a chuckle out
of:

The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"

17. "Totally Gone With The Wind"

16. "Lift and Separate"

15. "Boys on the Side -- Of My Barn"

14. "Summer Film So Full of Special Effects We Couldn't Fit in the Plot"

13. "The Weather Channel: The Movie"

12. "Schindler's Twist"

11. "Field of Debris"

10. "Dead Man Flying"

9. "I, Cumulus"

8. "One House Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest"

7. "The Splintered Bridges of Madison County"

6. "Wizard of Oz II: The Search For Toto"

5. "Killer Genuine Draft"

4. "Four Weddings & A Funnel"

3. "Indiana Jones and the Trailer Park of Doom"

2. "A Funnel Thing Happened On The Way To The Farm"

and the Number 1 Rejected Title for the Movie "Twister..."


1. "Roofless in Seattle"


Hope it gives you a laugh!

David KC5URH
Lubbock, TX
www.stormtravellers.com

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Geelong Weather Services" <gws at pipeline.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Clyve's Award
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 18:01:11 +1000
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Hi all, The photos are now posted on the MSC website thanks to Jane O'Neill.
Lindsay Smail.
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/chaward.htm

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 21:01:56 +1200
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: John Gaul <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
Subject: aus-wx: Clyve's Award
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

What was Clyve's award for anyway ??

John Gaul
NZTS

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Wicking or muslin for wet bulb thermometer?
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 10:25:16 +1000
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Blackheath: Sunday 10:25am, 16C, 8/8, light rain.

G'day all,

Does anyone know where I can get wicking/muslin for a wet bulb thermometer?
My muslin has rotted away.
The only place I know of in Sydney that sells it, charges around $25 for
300mm of the stuff.

Thanks for your help in advance.

Cheers,


Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 20:30:02 +1000
From: Keith Barnett <weather at ozemail.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Wicking or muslin for wet bulb thermometer?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Lindsay,
I use material from the haberdashery shop (of all places!). It used to
be called 'lawn'.It's just a white cloth material but I don't know
whether it goes by any other name. You can get this stuff in Grace Bros
or other department stores where curtain material is sold.

Lindsay Pearce wrote:
> 
> Blackheath: Sunday 10:25am, 16C, 8/8, light rain.
> 
> G'day all,
> 
> Does anyone know where I can get wicking/muslin for a wet bulb thermometer?
> My muslin has rotted away.
> The only place I know of in Sydney that sells it, charges around $25 for
> 300mm of the stuff.
> 
> Thanks for your help in advance.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Lindsay Pearce
> Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> Email: writer at lisp.com.au
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Keith Barnett
Piano player and wet weather fanatic
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Wicking or muslin for wet bulb thermometer?
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 11:17:18 GMT
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I'd buy it. 300mm should last you a decade or so, even with weekly
changes. Can you email me who sells it, cos I need some, too.

Laurier

On Sun, 25 Mar 2001 10:25:16 +1000, "Lindsay Pearce"
<writer at lisp.com.au> wrote:

>Blackheath: Sunday 10:25am, 16C, 8/8, light rain.
>
>G'day all,
>
>Does anyone know where I can get wicking/muslin for a wet bulb thermometer?
>My muslin has rotted away.
>The only place I know of in Sydney that sells it, charges around $25 for
>300mm of the stuff.
>
>Thanks for your help in advance.
>
>Cheers,
>
>
>Lindsay Pearce
>Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
>Email: writer at lisp.com.au
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 21:51:37 +1000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I think we can get some Aussi titles up too.


 1. Picnic at Hanging Wallcloud

2. The year my house broke.

3. Mad Max 2 - beyond Thunderstorm.

4. The chant of Jimmy Deguara.

5. Storm Boy ( come to think about this one's real )

6. A  cyclone called Alice

7. The road to Nhill  ( the Paul Yole version )

8. Simply Ball Lightning

9. Shine ( this is actually a bust situation )

10.The chaser from Snowy River.



> as some people around the country are starting to suffer from SDS (Storm
> Deprivation Syndrome) I thought I'd share this with you courtesy of
> David Drummond from the wx-chase list in the USA where they have had a
> small foretaste of things to come, but are still waiting.......
>
> ...........................................................
>
> Something I came across I thought most of you would get a chuckle out
> of:
>
> The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"
>
> 17. "Totally Gone With The Wind"
>
> 16. "Lift and Separate"
>
> 15. "Boys on the Side -- Of My Barn"
>
> 14. "Summer Film So Full of Special Effects We Couldn't Fit in the Plot"
>
> 13. "The Weather Channel: The Movie"
>
> 12. "Schindler's Twist"
>
> 11. "Field of Debris"
>
> 10. "Dead Man Flying"
>
> 9. "I, Cumulus"
>
> 8. "One House Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest"
>
> 7. "The Splintered Bridges of Madison County"
>
> 6. "Wizard of Oz II: The Search For Toto"
>
> 5. "Killer Genuine Draft"
>
> 4. "Four Weddings & A Funnel"
>
> 3. "Indiana Jones and the Trailer Park of Doom"
>
> 2. "A Funnel Thing Happened On The Way To The Farm"
>
> and the Number 1 Rejected Title for the Movie "Twister..."
>
>
> 1. "Roofless in Seattle"
>
>
> Hope it gives you a laugh!
>
> David KC5URH
> Lubbock, TX
> www.stormtravellers.com
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 22:19:14 +1000
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

>
> 4. The chant of Jimmy Deguara.
>

Michael,

I vote for this one!!!!!

Jane




PS: I've redone the MSC front page for 2001 & moved the links for the 2000
chases to the 2000 Reports page.

PPS: Laurier, the reports won't move now - all reports from now will be anchored
where they first appear on MSC.

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p7-max41.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.147.135] claimed to be jdeguara.ihug.com.au
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Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 23:11:02 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Geoff Thurtell <gthurtel at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
...so that is what it is? For all these years I thought that the unusual 
sound as storms approached Schofields was caused by some local 
meteorological/topographical effect! :-)
Geoff
PS pretty boring weather ATM
At 10:19 PM 25/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
> >
> > 4. The chant of Jimmy Deguara.
> >
>
>Michael,
>
>I vote for this one!!!!!
>
>Jane
>
>
>
>
>PS: I've redone the MSC front page for 2001 & moved the links for the 2000
>chases to the 2000 Reports page.
>
>PPS: Laurier, the reports won't move now - all reports from now will be 
>anchored
>where they first appear on MSC.
>
>Jane
>
>--------------------------------
>Jane ONeill - Melbourne
>cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
>Melbourne Storm Chasers
>http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
>ASWA - Victoria
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>--------------------------------
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx - Tstorm line
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 23:39:58 +1000
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Hi All Brisbane folks,

Nice little storm line just passing Warwick and heading this way, lightning
clearly visable to the SW.  Current radar loop shows some rather interesting
features.

John.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at australia.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 00:17:01 +1000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Don't forget:

Storm King Dambusters    (The Dambusters)

Crimson Skies    (Crimson Tide)

Tracey: Cyclone in a city    (Babe: Pig in a city)

I know what you did last summer

Cannonball Run (Not that any chasers drive like that <G>)

That's all I've got

PaulY

Paul Yole
State Rep - ASWA Vic
Comms Officer - Murtoa CFA
(041) 836 9256
http://www.severeweather.asn.au



----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 25, 2001 9:51 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"


> I think we can get some Aussi titles up too.
>
>
>  1. Picnic at Hanging Wallcloud
>
> 2. The year my house broke.
>
> 3. Mad Max 2 - beyond Thunderstorm.
>
> 4. The chant of Jimmy Deguara.
>
> 5. Storm Boy ( come to think about this one's real )
>
> 6. A  cyclone called Alice
>
> 7. The road to Nhill  ( the Paul Yole version )
>
> 8. Simply Ball Lightning
>
> 9. Shine ( this is actually a bust situation )
>
> 10.The chaser from Snowy River.
>
>
>
> > as some people around the country are starting to suffer from SDS (Storm
> > Deprivation Syndrome) I thought I'd share this with you courtesy of
> > David Drummond from the wx-chase list in the USA where they have had a
> > small foretaste of things to come, but are still waiting.......
> >
> > ...........................................................
> >
> > Something I came across I thought most of you would get a chuckle out
> > of:
> >
> > The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"
> >
> > 17. "Totally Gone With The Wind"
> >
> > 16. "Lift and Separate"
> >
> > 15. "Boys on the Side -- Of My Barn"
> >
> > 14. "Summer Film So Full of Special Effects We Couldn't Fit in the Plot"
> >
> > 13. "The Weather Channel: The Movie"
> >
> > 12. "Schindler's Twist"
> >
> > 11. "Field of Debris"
> >
> > 10. "Dead Man Flying"
> >
> > 9. "I, Cumulus"
> >
> > 8. "One House Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest"
> >
> > 7. "The Splintered Bridges of Madison County"
> >
> > 6. "Wizard of Oz II: The Search For Toto"
> >
> > 5. "Killer Genuine Draft"
> >
> > 4. "Four Weddings & A Funnel"
> >
> > 3. "Indiana Jones and the Trailer Park of Doom"
> >
> > 2. "A Funnel Thing Happened On The Way To The Farm"
> >
> > and the Number 1 Rejected Title for the Movie "Twister..."
> >
> >
> > 1. "Roofless in Seattle"
> >
> >
> > Hope it gives you a laugh!
> >
> > David KC5URH
> > Lubbock, TX
> > www.stormtravellers.com
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > ASWA - Victoria
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Adam Mayo" <oyam at bigpond.com>
To: "Australian Severe Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: DAAC Study Forecasting Fury
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 07:05:58 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Don't know if everyone has already seen this, if not you will most likely
find it interesting.

 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/Seawinds/

Judy Mayo



Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\DAAC Study Forecasting Fury.url"
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 07:33:48 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide yesterday
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Howdy all,

Well, we all must remind ourselves amongst all this excitement about comma
clouds, occlusions and cold sectors that it is still March and that for
many of us a +30 degree day is still possible!

Yesterday afternooon / evening we did get a secondary disturbance through
with an intensification of quite heavy showers for a few hours as the winds
backed to SW.  Not really cold, and no glaciation that I could see.  Its
been a great March here rainwise.

Phil

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Mr Michael Powell <s371200 at student.uq.edu.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 09:10:23 +1000
X-Mailer: Netscape Webmail
Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane wx
X-Accept-Language: en
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Well, Brisbane residents have just slept through one of thier warmest 
March nights. The min last night was 25C, which has to be a record for 
this time of the year. The cloud cover which kept the temp up overnight 
has just lifted so it just might reach the predicted max of 31C. 

Michael 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Dean McWhinney" <mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC:Aussie Weather Voice Chat ?!
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 10:11:41 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Well me who hates typeing discovered a thing called paltalk where u voice
chat in a room i have thought i will start a aussie weather room its simple
as buying a mic if u dont got one then down load paltalk at this adress
www.paltalk.com   then tell me via email when u have done it and give me ur
nickname and i can add u and show u how to get to the room it will be set
times i dont have them now but i can when i have enough people i have
sucessfully done this with other room s get back to me via the list or
mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au


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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane wx
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 11:40:37 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Warmest night since summer LY I reckon, heats not that bad, but the humidity
is a killer.  Given that a while ago it was 29.5C in the city with 71% RH,
I'd say 31C is odds on.  27.5C & 85% R.H. at midnight inside my place last
night with every window open and fans going.  Now at work, thank God for the
A/C.  Going outside at the moment feels like you actually need a snorkel and
flippers.  Bit of cloud around trying to build in the SW, where the hell is
that trough??  Storm line I saw late last night petered out on the Ranges,
but we did get 0.2mm later on.  Looked like Grafton got a bit, plenty of
pink down there.

John.
>snip

Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane wx

Well, Brisbane residents have just slept through one of thier warmest
March nights. The min last night was 25C, which has to be a record for
this time of the year. The cloud cover which kept the temp up overnight
has just lifted so it just might reach the predicted max of 31C.

Michael

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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 12:12:32 +1000 (EST)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Number plate 'CLOUDS'
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi all

Whilst driving around on Saturday looking for interesting weather (thanks
to Jane for the updates), I saw a stationwagon (Holden I think), in the
morning heading out Geelong way, with the number plate 'CLOUDS'. Who owns
this? 

For interests sake, I encountered light-moderate precip from two
prefrontal troughs near Warrnambool, and precip of around 20-40mm/hr in a
heavier line of showers further to the west near Portland. However, no
lightning was seen, unlike Melbourne, which apparently experienced a
couple of flashes as I was heading back. 


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0.2
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 12:25:59 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane wx
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>

Also pretty hideous in NE NSW. My screen temperature bottomed out at 23.8 
overnight (the highest I've recorded since being in this area 2 years), 
with most centres in the Northern Rivers 24 to 25. Fortunately last evening 
we had a fresh seabreeze that made it more comfortable going to bed.

About 33 here now with the dew point 24. Yuck !!! Plenty of cumulus about, 
some looking almost like congestus, but I'm not sure of our chances of a 
storm. The trough is very ill-defined.

Last night plenty of thunderstorm activity on the ranges to the west and 
way down to the south, a great lightning show 10pm till midnight, but all 
activity was slipping down the NW-SE line, with little movement towards the 
east.

Michael




At 11:40 26/03/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>Warmest night since summer LY I reckon, heats not that bad, but the humidity
>is a killer.  Given that a while ago it was 29.5C in the city with 71% RH,
>I'd say 31C is odds on.  27.5C & 85% R.H. at midnight inside my place last
>night with every window open and fans going.  Now at work, thank God for the
>A/C.  Going outside at the moment feels like you actually need a snorkel and
>flippers.  Bit of cloud around trying to build in the SW, where the hell is
>that trough??  Storm line I saw late last night petered out on the Ranges,
>but we did get 0.2mm later on.  Looked like Grafton got a bit, plenty of
>pink down there.
>
>John.
> >snip


  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at australia.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Number plate 'CLOUDS'
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 12:35:09 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Could it be Clyve returning home from somewhere??? Or would his be
storm?????/ :o)

PaulY

Paul Yole
State Rep - ASWA Vic
Comms Officer - Murtoa CFA
(041) 836 9256
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

----- Original Message -----
From: "Robert Goler" <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, March 26, 2001 12:12 PM
Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Number plate 'CLOUDS'


>
> Hi all
>
> Whilst driving around on Saturday looking for interesting weather (thanks
> to Jane for the updates), I saw a stationwagon (Holden I think), in the
> morning heading out Geelong way, with the number plate 'CLOUDS'. Who owns
> this?
>
> For interests sake, I encountered light-moderate precip from two
> prefrontal troughs near Warrnambool, and precip of around 20-40mm/hr in a
> heavier line of showers further to the west near Portland. However, no
> lightning was seen, unlike Melbourne, which apparently experienced a
> couple of flashes as I was heading back.
>
>
> Cheers
>
> --
>
> Robert A. Goler
>
> E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
> Department of Mathematics and Statistics
> Monash University
> Clayton, Vic 3800
> Australia
>
> --
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 21:16:34 +1100
From: Aussiegirl <april at ains.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win95; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC:Aussie Weather Voice Chat ?!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I started a group about 2 months ago.. called Australian Aviation and weather
group..
meet new friends category

Dean McWhinney wrote:

> Well me who hates typeing discovered a thing called paltalk where u voice
> chat in a room i have thought i will start a aussie weather room its simple
> as buying a mic if u dont got one then down load paltalk at this adress
> www.paltalk.com   then tell me via email when u have done it and give me ur
> nickname and i can add u and show u how to get to the room it will be set
> times i dont have them now but i can when i have enough people i have
> sucessfully done this with other room s get back to me via the list or
> mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Thursdays rain.
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 13:56:43 +1000
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


>Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 16:07:13 GMT
>From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
>Subject: aus-wx: What caused Melbourne's Thursday downpour?
>
>I haven't seen much comment on the mechanics of this unusual event on
>the list. Any thoughts?

Laurier, this initially struck me as some type of vortex deformation
feature, where the low level comma cloud had been elongated north-south on
the western side of the "low" in strongly deformed mid/upper level flow.
This is characterised by descending cold dry air on the western side of the
cloud band and warm moist ascending air on the eastern side, with rainfall
produced by strong isentropic ascent.

I don't think, however, that this is a true picture of what was happening
as...
While this event was imbedded in a major synoptic feature, the narrowness of
the rain band, and the strong mesoscale nature of the circulation over
Melbourne suggests to me something more exotic.
Typically with "wrap" around type rainfall situations in Melbourne, the
rainfall/cloud band is much wider, and the rainfall rates less intense.

I guess it is not really answering the question, but the remarkable feature
about this system was the strong convergence into the band on the mesoscale,
as indicated by the low-level winds around Port Phillip Bay. During the
event winds were SW at around 25km on the western side of the band, and NE
at 10-25km on the eastern side of the band (over a distance of 50 to 100km).
This contrast in flows lasted for ~6 hours, and the break down in the rain
band in a matter of about 1 hour late on Thursday, coincided with a
"washing" out of the NE flow, and an establishment on SW flow across Port
Phillip bay and Melbourne. The intensity and prolonged nature of the
low-level convergence explains the intensity of the rainfall... but the
question of how such strongly convergent flow was established and maintained
is unclear. 

Finally, an observations which has been commented on, and in hindsight is
probably about as unusual as the rainfall was the behaviour of temperature
and dew-point with this system.
While this was overlayed on the diurnal cycle, it was clearly much warmer
and muggier (to a human observer) when the SW flow became established
towards the end of the rain event. For example, at Melbourne airport the
12pm (EDST) obs during the height of the heavy rain show T=12.0 and Td=11.7
At 3pm when the heavy rain had just ceased (but it was still heavily
overcast/wet) the observations showed T=16.0 and Td=15.5 (given below).
Walking home on Thursday night, this change in air mass struck me as on of
the most dramatic "warm fronts" I can recall seeing in Melbourne at any time
of year. 


DATE/TIME(EST) T 		Td	P	Rain (previous 3 hours).
2001032108    12.6     9.6   987.4     7.2  00  02  63
2001032111    16.9     8.4   988.2     0.0  00  02  02
2001032114    18.3     6.1   987.6     0.0  00  15  80
2001032117    16.0     5.0   989.1     0.0  00  15  15
2001032120    13.2     6.6   991.4     0.0  00  03  16
2001032123    12.1     8.1   992.4     0.0  00  15  15
2001032202    10.9     7.2   990.5     0.0  00  01  15
2001032205    10.4     9.1   989.9     1.6  00  51  53
2001032208    11.5    10.5   989.8     8.0  00  65  65
2001032211    12.0    11.7   991.0    51.8  00  63  65
2001032214    16.0    15.5   990.8    47.0  00  60  65
2001032217    16.1    13.8   992.1     0.2  00  16  60
2001032220    15.2    13.2   993.9     0.0  00  15  15

Cheers,

David

                                                              
Dr David Jones                                               
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646  
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 17:05:46 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Or some other ones that came to mind this afternoon:

Names for Weather Tv Shows:

Burke's Backbuilding

A Current in the Air

National Fine Views

Russell Gilbert - I Saw Shear


Names for Weather Movies:

You've Got Hail

The Soundings of Music

The Wizard of Ozone

Screen!

Grills in the Mist.

Names for Weather Competitions:

The Wet Bulb competition

The Wet ASWA T-shirt competition




Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 25, 2001 9:51 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"


> I think we can get some Aussi titles up too.
>
>
>  1. Picnic at Hanging Wallcloud
>
> 2. The year my house broke.
>
> 3. Mad Max 2 - beyond Thunderstorm.
>
> 4. The chant of Jimmy Deguara.
>
> 5. Storm Boy ( come to think about this one's real )
>
> 6. A  cyclone called Alice
>
> 7. The road to Nhill  ( the Paul Yole version )
>
> 8. Simply Ball Lightning
>
> 9. Shine ( this is actually a bust situation )
>
> 10.The chaser from Snowy River.
>
>
>
> > as some people around the country are starting to suffer from SDS (Storm
> > Deprivation Syndrome) I thought I'd share this with you courtesy of
> > David Drummond from the wx-chase list in the USA where they have had a
> > small foretaste of things to come, but are still waiting.......
> >
> > ...........................................................
> >
> > Something I came across I thought most of you would get a chuckle out
> > of:
> >
> > The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"
> >
> > 17. "Totally Gone With The Wind"
> >
> > 16. "Lift and Separate"
> >
> > 15. "Boys on the Side -- Of My Barn"
> >
> > 14. "Summer Film So Full of Special Effects We Couldn't Fit in the Plot"
> >
> > 13. "The Weather Channel: The Movie"
> >
> > 12. "Schindler's Twist"
> >
> > 11. "Field of Debris"
> >
> > 10. "Dead Man Flying"
> >
> > 9. "I, Cumulus"
> >
> > 8. "One House Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest"
> >
> > 7. "The Splintered Bridges of Madison County"
> >
> > 6. "Wizard of Oz II: The Search For Toto"
> >
> > 5. "Killer Genuine Draft"
> >
> > 4. "Four Weddings & A Funnel"
> >
> > 3. "Indiana Jones and the Trailer Park of Doom"
> >
> > 2. "A Funnel Thing Happened On The Way To The Farm"
> >
> > and the Number 1 Rejected Title for the Movie "Twister..."
> >
> >
> > 1. "Roofless in Seattle"
> >
> >
> > Hope it gives you a laugh!
> >
> > David KC5URH
> > Lubbock, TX
> > www.stormtravellers.com
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > ASWA - Victoria
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 06:11:49 +1000
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane's Minimum
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Only twice in the last 100 years has Brisbane had a March min over 25
accoring to what I can see.... record 25.5 on 14 March 1973 but which
site??
Perhpas Blair can enlighten... was it Brisbane's warmest March night for
28 years or ???

don W
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From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: OSCAR EDITION--The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 18:29:06 +1000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Some Nomeniees from this years 
wx-oscars</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Best Actor</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Jimmy Deguara -- Crouching Chaser, Hidden Wallcloud 
(<FONT size=1>crouching tiger hidden dragon)</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the sweeping tale of a man his attempt to 
photograph...a storm.....150kms away</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Michael Bath and Dave Ellem --The Perfect 
Storm</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the adenelin pumped adventure of the NE NSW 
casino chase</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Anthony Cornelius--The Cell</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---one man stamps his authority on the 
mini-cell&nbsp;(see the&nbsp;action thriller film--The ASWA AGM II-the search 
for a venue)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Best Song</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Crouching Chaser, Hidden Wallcloud--"A suspisious 
lowering before time" (<FONT size=1>a love before time</FONT>)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---"what was that?"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Best Film</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>What Lies Beneath (the rotating 
updraft)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---A Hitchcock-esk thriller about the mysterious of 
life</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>O Chaser, Where Art thou?(<FONT size=1>o brother 
where art thou?)</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the story of TD2K</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Unchasable(unbreakable)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the story the Putty RD</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Proof of LiftedIndex(proof of life)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---A psychological thriller, that 
delivers....sometimes...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Gone in 60 seconds</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the story of this seasons Victorian 
Chasing</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>And the oscar goes to:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>....................</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>dann__________________________<BR>Daniel 
Weatherhead <BR>Blaxland, NSW<BR><A 
href="mailto:weatherhead at ozemail.com.au">weatherhead at ozemail.com.au</A><BR>SYDNEY 
STORM CHASERS<BR><A 
href="http://www.sydneystormchasers.com">www.sydneystormchasers.com</A><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OSCAR EDITION--The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 18:46:18 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
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<DIV><FONT size=2>I think between the group we can take up comedy during the 
storm off season.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Michael</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=weatherhead at ozemail.com.au 
  href="mailto:weatherhead at ozemail.com.au">dann weatherhead</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, 26 March 2001 18:29</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: OSCAR EDITION--The Top 
  17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Some Nomeniees from this years 
  wx-oscars</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Best Actor</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Jimmy Deguara -- Crouching Chaser, Hidden 
  Wallcloud (<FONT size=1>crouching tiger hidden dragon)</FONT></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the sweeping tale of a man his attempt to 
  photograph...a storm.....150kms away</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Michael Bath and Dave Ellem --The Perfect 
  Storm</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the adenelin pumped adventure of the NE NSW 
  casino chase</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Anthony Cornelius--The Cell</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---one man stamps his authority on the 
  mini-cell&nbsp;(see the&nbsp;action thriller film--The ASWA AGM II-the search 
  for a venue)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Best Song</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Crouching Chaser, Hidden Wallcloud--"A suspisious 
  lowering before time" (<FONT size=1>a love before time</FONT>)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---"what was that?"</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Best Film</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>What Lies Beneath (the rotating 
  updraft)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---A Hitchcock-esk thriller about the mysterious 
  of life</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>O Chaser, Where Art thou?(<FONT size=1>o brother 
  where art thou?)</FONT></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the story of TD2K</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Unchasable(unbreakable)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the story the Putty RD</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Proof of LiftedIndex(proof of life)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---A psychological thriller, that 
  delivers....sometimes...</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Gone in 60 seconds</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the story of this seasons Victorian 
  Chasing</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>And the oscar goes to:</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>....................</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>dann__________________________<BR>Daniel 
  Weatherhead <BR>Blaxland, NSW<BR><A 
  href="mailto:weatherhead at ozemail.com.au">weatherhead at ozemail.com.au</A><BR>SYDNEY 
  STORM CHASERS<BR><A 
  href="http://www.sydneystormchasers.com">www.sydneystormchasers.com</A><BR></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Boring week in store
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 19:00:45 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

One of the things I hate about autumn is those large highs which can take
forever to pass.

Most models now have dropped any thoughts of a low pressure system and
instead have the 1030 high right over SE Australia via Friday.

I guess for anybody south of Newcastle it will be a good week for anything
but weather watching.

Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 19:31:15 +1000
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Boring week in store
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Oh cheer up Michael !!!

Winds will turn SE'ly and a small upper trough should bring some OK coastal
showers our way.

Urg im starting to sound like a Victorian or Queenslander.........  ;)

Matt Smith

Michael Thompson wrote:

> One of the things I hate about autumn is those large highs which can take
> forever to pass.
>
> Most models now have dropped any thoughts of a low pressure system and
> instead have the 1030 high right over SE Australia via Friday.
>
> I guess for anybody south of Newcastle it will be a good week for anything
> but weather watching.
>
> Michael Thompson
> http://ozthunder.com
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 19:46:42 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Boring week in store
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi Michael,

Good for bushwalking. And thanks a lot of all those pals who have picked on 
me regards the titles of storm chasing....:) Of course, I am small - easily 
bullied...

Jimmy Deguara

At 07:00 PM 26/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
>One of the things I hate about autumn is those large highs which can take
>forever to pass.
>
>Most models now have dropped any thoughts of a low pressure system and
>instead have the 1030 high right over SE Australia via Friday.
>
>I guess for anybody south of Newcastle it will be a good week for anything
>but weather watching.
>
>Michael Thompson
>http://ozthunder.com
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Very quiet year for TCs
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 19:47:52 +1000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>High&nbsp;all</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>After early predictions that this would be&nbsp;an 
above average TC season this year in the Coral Sea, we have in fact seen one of 
the&nbsp;quietest seasons&nbsp;I can remember (this also applies&nbsp;across the 
South Pacific and out toward Africa).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Loads of interest in the persistent ex-TC systems 
across the NT and WA, nevertheless.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I am expectant of a continuing unusual season 
(especially down the east coast of QLD/NSW as the cooler blasts of winter 
approach). Potential east coast lows, I suspect. Its been a long time. ("Donald" 
was really not one of these).&nbsp;We shall see.&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>What an extraordinary year so far ?... 
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 20:10:05 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Very quiet year for TCs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi Simon,

Yes I find this rather unusual that the Pacific has become somewhat quiet. 
Says a lot about the "Law of Averages"... I really thought this season 
would bring some on at least. I suppose it is not over yet though dwindling 
chances as we go.

Jimmy Deguara


At 07:47 PM 26/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
>High all
>
>After early predictions that this would be an above average TC season this 
>year in the Coral Sea, we have in fact seen one of the quietest seasons I 
>can remember (this also applies across the South Pacific and out toward 
>Africa).
>
>Loads of interest in the persistent ex-TC systems across the NT and WA, 
>nevertheless.
>
>I am expectant of a continuing unusual season (especially down the east 
>coast of QLD/NSW as the cooler blasts of winter approach). Potential east 
>coast lows, I suspect. Its been a long time. ("Donald" was really not one 
>of these). We shall see.
>
>What an extraordinary year so far ?...
>
>Regards
>Simon

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Boring week in store
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 20:05:31 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I doubt very much that this trough will develop, but I hope I am wrong.

In the meantime I am considering renaming Wollongong to Edge City - we
always seem to be on the edge of activity lately, never in it.

Michael



----- Original Message -----
From: "Matt Smith" <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, 26 March 2001 19:31
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Boring week in store


>
> Oh cheer up Michael !!!
>
> Winds will turn SE'ly and a small upper trough should bring some OK
coastal
> showers our way.
>
> Urg im starting to sound like a Victorian or Queenslander.........  ;)
>
> Matt Smith
>
> Michael Thompson wrote:
>
> > One of the things I hate about autumn is those large highs which can
take
> > forever to pass.
> >
> > Most models now have dropped any thoughts of a low pressure system and
> > instead have the 1030 high right over SE Australia via Friday.
> >
> > I guess for anybody south of Newcastle it will be a good week for
anything
> > but weather watching.
> >
> > Michael Thompson
> > http://ozthunder.com
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
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your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Very quiet year for TCs
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 20:08:27 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Funny thing was the same predictions were being made about the 
summer of 1999/2000 and it also was a fizzer on the east coast. Seems La Nina is 
not the Cyclone producer we all think.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>This&nbsp;past season&nbsp;I believe that upper winds were 
unfavourable. ECL's are of course a different ball game.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Michael</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=nomis66 at bigpond.com href="mailto:nomis66 at bigpond.com">Simon 
  Clarke</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, 26 March 2001 19:47</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Very quiet year for 
  TCs</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>High&nbsp;all</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>After early predictions that this would 
  be&nbsp;an above average TC season this year in the Coral Sea, we have in fact 
  seen one of the&nbsp;quietest seasons&nbsp;I can remember (this also 
  applies&nbsp;across the South Pacific and out toward Africa).</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Loads of interest in the persistent ex-TC systems 
  across the NT and WA, nevertheless.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I am expectant of a continuing unusual season 
  (especially down the east coast of QLD/NSW as the cooler blasts of winter 
  approach). Potential east coast lows, I suspect. Its been a long time. 
  ("Donald" was really not one of these).&nbsp;We shall see.&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>What an extraordinary year so far ?... 
  </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 21:16:34 +1100
From: Aussiegirl <april at ains.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win95; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC:Aussie Weather Voice Chat ?!
X-MDMail-Server: MDaemon v2.0 rU b1 32
X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I started a group about 2 months ago.. called Australian Aviation and weather
group..
meet new friends category

Dean McWhinney wrote:

> Well me who hates typeing discovered a thing called paltalk where u voice
> chat in a room i have thought i will start a aussie weather room its simple
> as buying a mic if u dont got one then down load paltalk at this adress
> www.paltalk.com   then tell me via email when u have done it and give me ur
> nickname and i can add u and show u how to get to the room it will be set
> times i dont have them now but i can when i have enough people i have
> sucessfully done this with other room s get back to me via the list or
> mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 20:38:38 +1000
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: ...even more bad movie titles - Version 2
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

....and then there's the movie 'Cunnamulla'...

which could give us........

'Cunnamulla Dreaming'

'Sleepless in Cunnamulla'

'Thargomindah Barfly'

'Roofless in Boggabri'

'The Sound of Thunder'



<enough>

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 20:34:57 +1000
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: MSC Cafe
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Evening all,

I've started a section called "Alpine Resources" on the MSC Cafe page at
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/forecasting.htm . If you have any
favourite 'cold weather' links that you think should be there, please
send them to me & I'll include them.

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at australia.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ...even more bad movie titles - Version 2
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 20:58:23 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Don't forget

The Wizzard of Warrego :o)

PaulY


----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, March 26, 2001 8:38 PM
Subject: aus-wx: ...even more bad movie titles - Version 2


> ....and then there's the movie 'Cunnamulla'...
>
> which could give us........
>
> 'Cunnamulla Dreaming'
>
> 'Sleepless in Cunnamulla'
>
> 'Thargomindah Barfly'
>
> 'Roofless in Boggabri'
>
> 'The Sound of Thunder'
>
>
>
> <enough>
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
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>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.2.32.160]
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Little Cell in NE NSW
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 21:40:17 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Mar 2001 11:40:17.0475 (UTC) FILETIME=[87AEA130:01C0B5E9]
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<x-flowed>
Hi!
I got my new digital camera today and was able to christen it with a lovley 
little cell just near Byron Bay in the Norther Rivers. It gave a short but 
intense shower when it passed over my home (SW of Byron), but developed more 
as it moved away. Hope you like them =)

http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0326de01.jpg
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0326de02.jpg

Dave
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 21:38:00 +1000 (AEST)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Very quiet year for TCs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Which is why you have to treat such scale interaction relationships with
caution. It is well known that the phase relationship between ENSO and TC
activity in the Australian basins is not particulary coherent. Better
results can be gained if the trend of the SOI is included in the
regression, but even then it is only a guide - a probabilistic forecast.
Until we understand more about the mechanisms of ENSO and other "large
scale" variations (MJO, PDO), then exceptions like the past two years are
bound to occur...

Jonty.



On Mon, 26 Mar 2001, Michael Thompson wrote:

> Funny thing was the same predictions were being made about the summer of 1999/2000 and it also was a fizzer on the east coast. Seems La Nina is not the Cyclone producer we all think.
> 
> This past season I believe that upper winds were unfavourable. ECL's are of course a different ball game.
> 
> Michael
> 
>   ----- Original Message ----- 
>   From: Simon Clarke 
>   To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
>   Sent: Monday, 26 March 2001 19:47
>   Subject: aus-wx: Very quiet year for TCs
> 
> 
>   High all
> 
>   After early predictions that this would be an above average TC season this year in the Coral Sea, we have in fact seen one of the quietest seasons I can remember (this also applies across the South Pacific and out toward Africa).
> 
>   Loads of interest in the persistent ex-TC systems across the NT and WA, nevertheless.
> 
>   I am expectant of a continuing unusual season (especially down the east coast of QLD/NSW as the cooler blasts of winter approach). Potential east coast lows, I suspect. Its been a long time. ("Donald" was really not one of these). We shall see. 
> 
>   What an extraordinary year so far ?... 
> 
>   Regards 
>   Simon
> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: bayns at mail.broad.net.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 22:11:48 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham <bayns at broad.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Little Cell in NE NSW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

hi dave, all
a nice line of activity in the SE QLD NE NSW area, giving everyone in the
area first hand experience with these cells or a distant photographic
opportunity. 
although no storms passed over head, we did recieve a smidgen of precip
from the one that was moving east just below the border just before sunset.
everything on the ground had turned this dark orange colour. was quite
eary. kinda as if we were in total eclipse of teh sun. i haven't been in
one of those so i don't know who i am to compare.  the beaudesert storm was
nicely backlit by the sun bout an hour b4 sunset. and also witness some
very distant storms byron/ballina shores. 
anyway enough of the chit chat. i got some photos and yous'll seem 'em
tmmorrow :)
steve baynham
reporting for aussie weather mail list
goodnight!

At 09:40 PM 26/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi!
>I got my new digital camera today and was able to christen it with a lovley 
>little cell just near Byron Bay in the Norther Rivers. It gave a short but 
>intense shower when it passed over my home (SW of Byron), but developed more 
>as it moved away. Hope you like them =)
>
>http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0326de01.jpg
>http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0326de02.jpg
>
>Dave
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
Steve Baynham
http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany

Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

Brisbane Storm Chasers
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 22:38:58 +1000
From: Matt Smith <tornado at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Next NSW ASWA Meeting !
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Dear aussie-weather list members.

The next NSW ASWA meeting will be hold on Saturday April 14  2001.
Venue: The Weather Company, 7 West St North Sydney.
Time: 7pm
Parking: Free in the streets around TWC building.
Press the Weather21 buzzer to be let in.

On the Agenda :

- Member feedback about the new look "Storm News".
  What can be done to improve it? How to submit articles.
- ASWA AGM Update. A brief update on proceedings regarding the
   Annual   General Meeting, including venue.
- ASWA Website. Update to the website, and a discussion on
  what members would like to see on the website, such as the
  new photograph gallery and vantage point database and an update
  on AWS data.
- Other general business.

- Feature Presentation :
  As the evening will mark the 2nd anniversary of the April 14
  1999 Supercell hailstorm in Sydney, a short presentation will
  be conducted by Matthew Pearce and Matthew Smith,
  discussing the storm. Synoptic analysis, visual observations, and
  damage assesment will be discussed. If you have any photographs,
  newspaper articles, or anything else that could contribute to the
  discussion, please bring them along !

- Breif presentation on the current weather by Matthew Pearce.
- The meeting will be the usual informal gathering and more of
   a  social evening, and will conclude with pizza (bring a few
   dollars if   you would like some), and showing of any video footage
   and photographs of storms or other severe weather people have
   taken.

Both members and non members are more than welcome to attend!
If you have an interest in weather, and are not doing anything
this evening, I would strongly urge you to come along, we are a
friendly bunch who all have a similar interest in weather. You will
meet and make lots of new friends and fit in in no time at all!

Due to it being held on the Easter long weekend, attendance
may be a bit low, but we will be there regardless.

Matthew Pearce and Matthew Smith
NSW State Representatives of ASWA.



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storms Galore.....
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 22:33:26 +0930
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Howdy all.

Great storms lately - 3 yesterday, 2 today (so far), plenty of lightning,
heavy rain.

Friday:	59mm
Saturday	12mm
Sunday	57mm

Today so far:	27mm

More storms to come tonight....aahhhhh lovely.

Paul in Darwin

Umm better get off.........arrrghhhhhhhh d'oh that was close.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OSCAR EDITION--The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 23:16:26 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3500" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Two things here.....not only has Victoria recorded 
more tornadoes than any other state so far this year (confirmed), our chase 
season hasn't been that bad....</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The other thing regards putty road.....Matt Smith, 
Anthony C and myself sucessfully chased a monster along the putty road on 6th 
December 2000.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Other than that....hehe....its great.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>macca</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A href="mailto:weatherhead at ozemail.com.au" 
  title=weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>dann weatherhead</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com" 
  title=aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, March 26, 2001 6:29 
PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: OSCAR EDITION--The Top 
  17 Rejected Titles for the Movie "Twister"</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Some Nomeniees from this years 
  wx-oscars</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Best Actor</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Jimmy Deguara -- Crouching Chaser, Hidden 
  Wallcloud (<FONT size=1>crouching tiger hidden dragon)</FONT></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the sweeping tale of a man his attempt to 
  photograph...a storm.....150kms away</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Michael Bath and Dave Ellem --The Perfect 
  Storm</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the adenelin pumped adventure of the NE NSW 
  casino chase</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Anthony Cornelius--The Cell</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---one man stamps his authority on the 
  mini-cell&nbsp;(see the&nbsp;action thriller film--The ASWA AGM II-the search 
  for a venue)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Best Song</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Crouching Chaser, Hidden Wallcloud--"A suspisious 
  lowering before time" (<FONT size=1>a love before time</FONT>)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---"what was that?"</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Best Film</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>What Lies Beneath (the rotating 
  updraft)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---A Hitchcock-esk thriller about the mysterious 
  of life</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>O Chaser, Where Art thou?(<FONT size=1>o brother 
  where art thou?)</FONT></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the story of TD2K</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Unchasable(unbreakable)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the story the Putty RD</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Proof of LiftedIndex(proof of life)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---A psychological thriller, that 
  delivers....sometimes...</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Gone in 60 seconds</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>---the story of this seasons Victorian 
  Chasing</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>And the oscar goes to:</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>....................</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>dann__________________________<BR>Daniel 
  Weatherhead <BR>Blaxland, NSW<BR><A 
  href="mailto:weatherhead at ozemail.com.au">weatherhead at ozemail.com.au</A><BR>SYDNEY 
  STORM CHASERS<BR><A 
  href="http://www.sydneystormchasers.com">www.sydneystormchasers.com</A><BR></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: WA cold
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 15:26:38 GMT
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I haven't seen any mention of the widespread cold nights in WA on the
24th and 25th. By my reckoning, a whole clutch of March minimum temp
records fell, some fairly long-standing ones by as much as 1.5
degrees. A couple of centres in the SE of the state broke their
previous records on two consecutive nights! I've put the details on
the relevant date's news pages.

It says something for the strength of the cold surge that records were
set as far north as Marble Bar, and many occurred despite windspeed
keeping around 10 to 15km/h through the nights.

 Any comments, Blair?


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://www.australianweathernews.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Little Cell in NE NSW
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 15:30:03 GMT
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Macksville and Nambucca Heads on the NSW Mid North Coast recorded
109.5 and 106 respectively. Walcha had 90mm, and Woolbrook broke its
March record of 63.2 (in 43 years) with 84mm in the gauge this
morning.

Laurier

On Mon, 26 Mar 2001 22:11:48 +1000, steve baynham <bayns at broad.net.au>
wrote:

>hi dave, all
>a nice line of activity in the SE QLD NE NSW area, giving everyone in the
>area first hand experience with these cells or a distant photographic
>opportunity. 
>although no storms passed over head, we did recieve a smidgen of precip
>from the one that was moving east just below the border just before sunset.
>everything on the ground had turned this dark orange colour. was quite
>eary. kinda as if we were in total eclipse of teh sun. i haven't been in
>one of those so i don't know who i am to compare.  the beaudesert storm was
>nicely backlit by the sun bout an hour b4 sunset. and also witness some
>very distant storms byron/ballina shores. 
>anyway enough of the chit chat. i got some photos and yous'll seem 'em
>tmmorrow :)
>steve baynham
>reporting for aussie weather mail list
>goodnight!
>
>At 09:40 PM 26/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
>>Hi!
>>I got my new digital camera today and was able to christen it with a lovley 
>>little cell just near Byron Bay in the Norther Rivers. It gave a short but 
>>intense shower when it passed over my home (SW of Byron), but developed more 
>>as it moved away. Hope you like them =)
>>
>>http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0326de01.jpg
>>http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0326de02.jpg
>>
>>Dave
>>_________________________________________________________________________
>>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>>
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>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>
>Steve Baynham
>http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany
>
>Australian Severe Weather Association
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>Brisbane Storm Chasers
>http://www.bsch.simplenet.com
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 19:36:17 +1000
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WA cold
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Perth's report of 4.6 indicated new March record.
Don W

Laurier Williams wrote:
> 
> I haven't seen any mention of the widespread cold nights in WA on the
> 24th and 25th. By my reckoning, a whole clutch of March minimum temp
> records fell, some fairly long-standing ones by as much as 1.5
> degrees. A couple of centres in the SE of the state broke their
> previous records on two consecutive nights! I've put the details on
> the relevant date's news pages.
> 
> It says something for the strength of the cold surge that records were
> set as far north as Marble Bar, and many occurred despite windspeed
> keeping around 10 to 15km/h through the nights.
> 
>  Any comments, Blair?
> 
> --
> Laurier Williams
> Australian Weather News & Links
> http://www.australianweathernews.com
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Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 08:40:43 -0800
From: David Carroll <davidkc at nia.net.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: Bathurst Temp/cold
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27/3 8:40am

HI all..

Nice cool 2.7 deg this morning. .

How was it in other states/cities

Dave
Bathurst

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WA cold
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 08:50:42 +1000 (EST)
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> 
> I haven't seen any mention of the widespread cold nights in WA on the
> 24th and 25th. By my reckoning, a whole clutch of March minimum temp
> records fell, some fairly long-standing ones by as much as 1.5
> degrees. A couple of centres in the SE of the state broke their
> previous records on two consecutive nights! I've put the details on
> the relevant date's news pages.
> 

I'm caught up in an internal conference this week - will pursue this
further when I can get some time.

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Godsman, Andrew AG" <Godsman.Andrew.AG at bhp.com>
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Bathurst Temp/cold
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 09:03:42 +1000
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Wollongong was a balmy 17.6 by my thermometer as I left to ride to work at 6:00am. It is very refreshing to have a crisp wind blowing on the way in to keep you cool. Another glorious autumn day ahead but unfortunately free of storm prospects for a while with that dreaded SE wind set to establish itself today and last for quite a while. Keep that sds coming.

Andrew Godsman
Port Kembla NSW

-----Original Message-----
From: David Carroll [mailto:davidkc at nia.net.au]
Sent: Wednesday, March 28, 2001 2:41 AM
To: Aussie Weather
Subject: aus-wx: Bathurst Temp/cold


27/3 8:40am

HI all..

Nice cool 2.7 deg this morning. .

How was it in other states/cities

Dave
Bathurst

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From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Soundings
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 16:18:17 -0700
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Hi all,

Was wondering why the BoM soundings can not be accessed by the
username/password listed?

Cheers, Lyle

    |
 - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- --  -    -
    |
    |  Graduate Research Assistant                     /\
    .  Department of Atmospheric Science           _  /  \
    .  Colorado State University                  / \/    \
       ph: +1-(970)-491-7785                     /  /~~~~~~\/\
    .  email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu          /~~/       /  \


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From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC Vance
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 16:19:45 -0700
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Hi,

some collegues are doing research on decoupling of TC's and want to do Vance
as a case study but the BMRC has no data of Vance after it entered the bight
and became ex-tropical. Was wondering if anyone has any observations or any
nature of Vance?

Thanks, Lyle

    |
 - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- --  -    -
    |
    |  Graduate Research Assistant                     /\
    .  Department of Atmospheric Science           _  /  \
    .  Colorado State University                  / \/    \
       ph: +1-(970)-491-7785                     /  /~~~~~~\/\
    .  email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu          /~~/       /  \


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com,
        "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
From: Hank de Wit <H.deWit at bom.gov.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Soundings
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<x-flowed>
At 16:18 26/03/2001 -0700, Lyle Pakula wrote:
>Hi all,
>
>Was wondering why the BoM soundings can not be accessed by the
>username/password listed?

It still works for me. The username "bomw0007" and password "aviation" are 
case sensitive. Perhaps you have your CAPS LOCK set. Or perhaps you missed 
one of the "0"'s in 0007, a mistake I often make ;-)

Cheers
Hank

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</x-flowed>
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Soundings
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 23:58:59 GMT
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id: bomw0007
pw: aviation

works ok for me at 10am Tuesday

Laurier

On Mon, 26 Mar 2001 16:18:17 -0700, "Lyle Pakula"
<lyle at atmos.colostate.edu> wrote:

>Hi all,
>
>Was wondering why the BoM soundings can not be accessed by the
>username/password listed?
>
>Cheers, Lyle
>
>    |
> - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- --  -    -
>    |
>    |  Graduate Research Assistant                     /\
>    .  Department of Atmospheric Science           _  /  \
>    .  Colorado State University                  / \/    \
>       ph: +1-(970)-491-7785                     /  /~~~~~~\/\
>    .  email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu          /~~/       /  \
>
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 08:13:30 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Vance
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My page on TC Vance, though most of the work was done by my brother Carl, 
is located at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/vance.htm but you will need 
broadband for some of the animations, etc.
I'm pretty sure Carl has some more info stashed somewhere also.

Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk 
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672



-----Original Message-----
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 16:19:45 -0700
Subject: aus-wx: TC Vance

> Hi,
> 
> some collegues are doing research on decoupling of TC's and want to do
> Vance
> as a case study but the BMRC has no data of Vance after it entered the
> bight
> and became ex-tropical. Was wondering if anyone has any observations or
> any
> nature of Vance?
> 
> Thanks, Lyle
> 
>     |
>  - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- --  -    -
>     |
>     |  Graduate Research Assistant                     /\
>     .  Department of Atmospheric Science           _  /  \
>     .  Colorado State University                  / \/    \
>        ph: +1-(970)-491-7785                     /  /~~~~~~\/\
>     .  email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu          /~~/       /  \
> 
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 08:24:07 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Vance
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Carl Smith's stuff on TC Vance is stored at 
http://cyclones.www9.50megs.com/1999/tcvance.htm and he has many pages of 
goodies linked to it.

Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk 
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672



-----Original Message-----
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 16:19:45 -0700
Subject: aus-wx: TC Vance

> Hi,
> 
> some collegues are doing research on decoupling of TC's and want to do
> Vance
> as a case study but the BMRC has no data of Vance after it entered the
> bight
> and became ex-tropical. Was wondering if anyone has any observations or
> any
> nature of Vance?
> 
> Thanks, Lyle
> 
>     |
>  - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- --  -    -
>     |
>     |  Graduate Research Assistant                     /\
>     .  Department of Atmospheric Science           _  /  \
>     .  Colorado State University                  / \/    \
>        ph: +1-(970)-491-7785                     /  /~~~~~~\/\
>     .  email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu          /~~/       /  \
> 
> 
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 23:55:05 +1200
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: John Gaul <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Boring week in store
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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At 19:00 26/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
>One of the things I hate about autumn is those large highs which can take
>forever to pass.
>
>Most models now have dropped any thoughts of a low pressure system and
>instead have the 1030 high right over SE Australia via Friday.
>
>I guess for anybody south of Newcastle it will be a good week for anything
>but weather watching.
>
>Michael Thompson
>http://ozthunder.com
>

Don't talk to me about boring weather. 2001 has prooved the most boring
weather period here in New Zealand.

..but boringingly interesting if there is such a thing, and if you are
interested in droughts, anticyclones, and their patterns.
The Omega block is finally shifting.
The barometer is dropping and you never know what next might happen ??!!??!!
We have had no rain since March 12th. Average way down. 
I wonder if we will get any spillover from the approaching front and
anything weatherwise following it, looks dodgy though  ??
Roll on May.


John Gaul
New Zealand Boring Weather Society


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: interesting pics
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 17:11:42 +1000
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Hi all,

I found these pics on an American web site .. they are worth a look.

http://chaseday.com/tornado-shamrock77.htm

Barbara

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Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 17:17:56 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Vance
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Lyle.

>Carl Smith's stuff on TC Vance is stored at
>http://cyclones.www9.50megs.com/1999/tcvance.htm and he has many pages of
>goodies linked to it.
>
>Phil
><><
<snip>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
>To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 16:19:45 -0700
>Subject: aus-wx: TC Vance
>
>> Hi,
>>
>> some collegues are doing research on decoupling of TC's and want to do
>> Vance
>> as a case study but the BMRC has no data of Vance after it entered the
>> bight
>> and became ex-tropical. Was wondering if anyone has any observations or
>> any
>> nature of Vance?
>>
>> Thanks, Lyle

If you go directly to http://cyclones.www9.50megs.com/1999/VanceTrack.htm
you will find all the ex-TC Vance info I have if you sift through it. Some
of the info in the emails posted there was from media reports of the
effects of this amazing storm on SA, Adelaide, and Melbourne, as it passed
by SE Australia.

You will find a 23 frame BoM synoptic chart animation at
http://cyclones.www9.50megs.com/1999/VanceSynoptic.htm which shows the full
path of Vance, including the part into the bight and near SE Australia in
the last 4 frames. This may be of some use to you.

The IR satpic animation at
http://cyclones.www9.50megs.com/1999/VanceSatpic.htm may also be useful,
and is worth a look in any case, but you will need to wait a while for it
to load unless you have broadband as it is about 2.5MB.

Otherwise, for more specific information you may have to contact the BoM
directly - perhaps someone from the BoM on this list may be able to point
you in the right direction.

Regards,
Carl.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: What's happening mid Coral Sea ?
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 17:26:33 +1000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#c0c0c0>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Anyone noticed that cloud mass to the west north 
west&nbsp;of New Caledonia ?.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Could this be another westerly moving upper low 
pressure system in the making?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>With a strong ridge building from the south, things 
could be shaping up for some "less than boring" weather once again.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
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Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 18:15:57 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham <bayns at broad.net.au>
Subject: aus-wx: devastation
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

evening everyone,
well i know i promised storm photos, and i've got storm photos. but noone
else will be seeing storm photos. cos i blew the arse out of my scanner!!:(
don't worry they're pretty ordinary photos anyway.
bye
steve (depressed)
Steve Baynham
http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany

Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

Brisbane Storm Chasers
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Boring week in store
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 18:09:50 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi John

I was actually thinking of you John when I was compiling the message about
the boring weather.

I thought that my complaints would be trivial compared to what you have had
to contend with. I also noticed that the block has finally shifted for you.

Michael



> The Omega block is finally shifting.
> The barometer is dropping and you never know what next might happen
??!!??!!
> We have had no rain since March 12th. Average way down.
> I wonder if we will get any spillover from the approaching front and
> anything weatherwise following it, looks dodgy though  ??
> Roll on May.
>
>



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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Little Cell in NE NSW
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 18:11:50 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
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Nice images Dave, can I be rude enough to ask the brand and price.

Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, 26 March 2001 21:40
Subject: aus-wx: Little Cell in NE NSW


> Hi!
> I got my new digital camera today and was able to christen it with a
lovley
> little cell just near Byron Bay in the Norther Rivers. It gave a short but
> intense shower when it passed over my home (SW of Byron), but developed
more
> as it moved away. Hope you like them =)
>
> http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0326de01.jpg
> http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0326de02.jpg
>
> Dave
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Vance
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 18:28:50 +1000
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Very creative writing Phil and Carl. Nice work !


Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, 27 March 2001 10:13
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Vance


> My page on TC Vance, though most of the work was done by my brother Carl,
> is located at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/vance.htm but you will need
> broadband for some of the animations, etc.
> I'm pretty sure Carl has some more info stashed somewhere also.
>
> Phil
> <><
> International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
> Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
> To: "Aussie Weather List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 16:19:45 -0700
> Subject: aus-wx: TC Vance
>
> > Hi,
> >
> > some collegues are doing research on decoupling of TC's and want to do
> > Vance
> > as a case study but the BMRC has no data of Vance after it entered the
> > bight
> > and became ex-tropical. Was wondering if anyone has any observations or
> > any
> > nature of Vance?
> >
> > Thanks, Lyle
> >
> >     |
> >  - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- --  -    -
> >     |
> >     |  Graduate Research Assistant                     /\
> >     .  Department of Atmospheric Science           _  /  \
> >     .  Colorado State University                  / \/    \
> >        ph: +1-(970)-491-7785                     /  /~~~~~~\/\
> >     .  email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu          /~~/       /  \
> >
> >
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> > +
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From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        "Aussie Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Slightly Off topic humour - school exam answers
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 18:34:19 +1000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

The following questions and answers were collated from last year's
British GCSE exams.  (16 year olds!)

I have included only those slightly relevant to weather.

Q: Name the four seasons.
A: Salt, pepper, mustard and vinegar.

Q: How is dew formed?
A: The sun shines down on the leaves and makes them perspire.

Q: What causes the tides in the oceans?
A: The tides are a fight between the Earth and the Moon. All water tends
   to flow towards the moon, because there is no water on the moon, and
   nature abhors a vacuum. I forget where the sun joins in this fight.

Michael









Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com


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Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 19:10:43 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OSCAR EDITION--The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the
  Movie "Twister"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
I supposed we chased it from both ends. Mario and I had lunch and then 
waited for it:) What a storm that was.

Jimmy Deguara

At 11:16 PM 26/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Two things here.....not only has Victoria recorded more tornadoes than any 
>other state so far this year (confirmed), our chase season hasn't been 
>that bad....
>
>The other thing regards putty road.....Matt Smith, Anthony C and myself 
>sucessfully chased a monster along the putty road on 6th December 2000.
>
>Other than that....hehe....its great.
>
>macca
>
>>----- Original Message -----
>>From: <mailto:weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>dann weatherhead
>>To: <mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com
>>Sent: Monday, March 26, 2001 6:29 PM
>>Subject: aus-wx: OSCAR EDITION--The Top 17 Rejected Titles for the Movie 
>>"Twister"
>>
>>Some Nomeniees from this years wx-oscars
>>
>>Best Actor
>>
>>Jimmy Deguara -- Crouching Chaser, Hidden Wallcloud (crouching tiger 
>>hidden dragon)
>>---the sweeping tale of a man his attempt to photograph...a 
>>storm.....150kms away
>>Michael Bath and Dave Ellem --The Perfect Storm
>>---the adenelin pumped adventure of the NE NSW casino chase
>>Anthony Cornelius--The Cell
>>---one man stamps his authority on the mini-cell (see the action thriller 
>>film--The ASWA AGM II-the search for a venue)
>>
>>Best Song
>>
>>Crouching Chaser, Hidden Wallcloud--"A suspisious lowering before time" 
>>(a love before time)
>>---"what was that?"
>>
>>Best Film
>>
>>What Lies Beneath (the rotating updraft)
>>---A Hitchcock-esk thriller about the mysterious of life
>>
>>O Chaser, Where Art thou?(o brother where art thou?)
>>---the story of TD2K
>>
>>Unchasable(unbreakable)
>>---the story the Putty RD
>>
>>Proof of LiftedIndex(proof of life)
>>---A psychological thriller, that delivers....sometimes...
>>
>>Gone in 60 seconds
>>---the story of this seasons Victorian Chasing
>>
>>And the oscar goes to:
>>
>>
>>
>>....................
>>
>>dann__________________________
>>Daniel Weatherhead
>>Blaxland, NSW
>><mailto:weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
>>SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
>><http://www.sydneystormchasers.com>www.sydneystormchasers.com
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>-----------------------------------------
>Jimmy Deguara
>Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
>from
>Schofields, Sydney
>NSW Australia
>
>e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
>Web Page with Michael Bath
>
>Australian Severe Weather Home Page
>http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
>President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.2.32.135]
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Little Cell in NE NSW
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 19:19:02 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Mar 2001 09:19:02.0458 (UTC) FILETIME=[F69769A0:01C0B69E]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi Michael,
No problems with the question. It's a Kodak DC4800 and it set me back $1164 
with a bonus 32mb picture card (ordered off the net). I also ordered a few 
different accessories, which pushed up the price, including a telephoto lens 
(for the close ups of the tornados I see =).

Dave


>From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Little Cell in NE NSW
>Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 18:11:50 +1000
>
>Nice images Dave, can I be rude enough to ask the brand and price.
>
>Michael
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Monday, 26 March 2001 21:40
>Subject: aus-wx: Little Cell in NE NSW
>
>
> > Hi!
> > I got my new digital camera today and was able to christen it with a
>lovley
> > little cell just near Byron Bay in the Norther Rivers. It gave a short 
>but
> > intense shower when it passed over my home (SW of Byron), but developed
>more
> > as it moved away. Hope you like them =)
> >
> > http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0326de01.jpg
> > http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0326de02.jpg
> >
> > Dave
> > 
>_________________________________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at 
>http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
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>
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_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
From: "Duncan & Mandy" <duncman at asiaonline.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Weather in Alice Springs
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 19:21:52 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I've just been spending 4 weeks in NZ honeymooning. Very dry in Wellington
area and Northern South Island. As recently mentioned here, the huge
blocking High pattern has meant there has been pretty dry weather there
lately, but enabled us to see the West Coast of the South Island (they have
7.5 metres of rain at Milford Sound each year) with fine warm days. Same
when touring around the base of Mt. Cook. So great Kiwi weather for the
tourists! We actually came back to Alice Springs on the coldest day here for
March - much cooler than NZ! Very green around here, as the wet summer
pattern that occured last summer has continued throughout this summer. The
Finke river has been full of water non stop for the last two years. Since
the start of the year, we've had well over 300mm - usually coming in large
downpours. Unlike the Southern states, it has been reasonably cool here in
comparison to about 2 years ago. Hopefully it won't get too cool like it did
last year - winter set in about April after a wet spell. This is way too
early for comfort!
Earlier on, Phil Bagust I think was talking about the 1951 Snow event in
Adelaide. He mentioned that the bureau didn't record any snow. At the time,
my mother was living in Tusmore, which is pretty much at the same height as
Kent Town (where the bom is), and she remembers vividly having snow fights,
and seeing snow stick a couple of Inches deep. I'm not quite sure when the
Bom moved to Kent Town from West Adelaide, but if it was before this date,
then it seems strange that it didn't snow heavily enough at Kent Town for a
measurement to be made. Anyway, I'm pretty sure nothing like this snow event
has happened since. My 2 cents worth.
Cheers,
Duncan Treloar
Alice Springs

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Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 19:48:51 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: NSW AMOS meeting tomorrow night
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
AUSTRALIAN METEOROLOGICAL & OCEANOGRAPHIC SOCIETY,

A.M.O.S.  SYDNEY CENTRE   -   WEATHERWATCH GROUP

NEWSLETTER NUMBER 01-03   -    MARCH  2001

The Next Meeting of the AMOS Weatherwatch Group will be on
Wednesday 28th March 2001 at 7:30pm (19:30) at
Macquarie University, Building E5A, Room 143 (E5A-143).
Expensive Parking is available in University Car-Parks see notes below.

Theme:- The Floods in New South Wales and Queensland 2000 &1

Mr. Neil Moody our contact at the Bureau will present rainfall and
hydrological data and maps of the areas flooded during 2001.

Dr. Alan Williams will present data and maps on the rainfall and 
temperature climate of Australia for the year 2000, which was the
second wettest on record. Alan will also report on the recent AMOS 
Conference in Hobart. Mr. Roger Nurse will co-ordinate the meeting.

This meeting will be an opportunity to present records, photographs, maps, 
notes, video, and scrap-books describing the rain and floods.
(Video of floods and storms are welcome, but be brief and relevant.)

Storm Spotters are welcome to present reports on any recent storms. Bring 
photos, brief videos, and data from any recent storm sightings.
Jimmy Deguara will answer questions about ASWA and their outings.

Visitors are very welcome. Discussion will follow the presentation, and 
light refreshments will be available during the meeting.
                                                                                       PTO 

PTO >>>




At this meeting of Weatherwatch be careful about your
parking, fees have changed to be $1.00 for the first hour, then three more 
dollars for two, three or four hours, and a MAXIMUM OF $5.00 If you want to 
stay until midnight. Sorry folks, it will cost you $4.00.
You can run outside and pay a dollar every hour if you wish.

Enquiries

Alan Williams   (02)9488.9975   Paul Graham     (02)9888.2527
Jimmy Deguara   (02)9627.1943   Roger Nurse     (02)9449.1473

Also Neil Moody (02)9296.1555   Bureau of Meteorology Contact
Dr. Milton Speer        (02)9296.1618   AMOS Sydney Centre Chair & BoM.

Future dates of the AMOS Weatherwatch Meetings for 2001 will be 
:-      Wednesday 30th May 2001
         Wednesday 25th July   "
         Wednesday 26th September
         Wednesday 28th November (note this may be combined with 
an                                              AMOS function)

Recent Meetings. At the last Weatherwatch Meeting on 31st January we heard 
an excellent talk by Paul Graham on the meteorology of the storm of 21st 
January 1991. Alan Williams discussed the damage and the rehabilitation, 
Roger Nurse presented a report from Macquarie Uni.
ASWA held their meeting at The Weather Channel on 10th February.
AMOS held the scientific meeting at the University of New South Wales on 
28th February where Elly Spark and Julie Evans spoke on the planning and 
weather forecasting for the Olympic and Para-Olympic Games.

Recent Weather
Floods moving towards Lake Eyre and the lower Darling. Prolonged Monsoon 
over Northern Australia. Floods in Simpson Desert.
Severe storm in Sydney on Wed. 28th February 2001.
Severe Storms at Yamba and Brisbane. Heavy Rain at Dorrigo, Lismore.
Floods along New South Wales North Coast, and Northern Rivers.
Cane Toads invade Northern Territory (maybe Kakadu National Park).
Heavy Snow in Northern Hemisphere. Bitter Cold in Russia and Siberia.

Wishing all our members and friends a safe, interesting Autumn season.

Regards           Roger T. Nurse, News Editor       7th March 2001


-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: interesting pics
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 20:00:51 +1000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Barbara

Great pics!

Gene Moore is probably my favourite chaser/storm photographer. He uses wider
angle lenses (fisheye even--17mm!) and they allow him to get up close and
personal with the storms. They also allow him to capture fantastic
structure. Anthony C and myself have discussed these problems, in terms of
capturing storms that are literally 'ontop' of you. If you don't have access
to these expensive lenses, then panoramas are a pretty good substitute (i.e.
taking a photo, then moving on, and taking another, and then joining them up
later). I know Anthony has some great panoramas of structure, the best i
have seen.

But yeah, Gene Moore rocks my world.

htttp://www.chaseday.com/chaseday5.htm

dann


----- Original Message -----
From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2001 5:11 PM
Subject: aus-wx: interesting pics


> Hi all,
>
> I found these pics on an American web site .. they are worth a look.
>
> http://chaseday.com/tornado-shamrock77.htm
>
> Barbara
>
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>

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Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 20:25:42 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: interesting pics
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi Dann and all,


I liked it when I happened to come across the hail pages..

bloody awesome.

IF there are no tornadoes, throw some 4inch hailstones at me.

Jimmy Deguara

At 08:00 PM 27/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Barbara
>
>Great pics!
>
>Gene Moore is probably my favourite chaser/storm photographer. He uses wider
>angle lenses (fisheye even--17mm!) and they allow him to get up close and
>personal with the storms. They also allow him to capture fantastic
>structure. Anthony C and myself have discussed these problems, in terms of
>capturing storms that are literally 'ontop' of you. If you don't have access
>to these expensive lenses, then panoramas are a pretty good substitute (i.e.
>taking a photo, then moving on, and taking another, and then joining them up
>later). I know Anthony has some great panoramas of structure, the best i
>have seen.
>
>But yeah, Gene Moore rocks my world.
>
>htttp://www.chaseday.com/chaseday5.htm
>
>dann
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2001 5:11 PM
>Subject: aus-wx: interesting pics
>
>
> > Hi all,
> >
> > I found these pics on an American web site .. they are worth a look.
> >
> > http://chaseday.com/tornado-shamrock77.htm
> >
> > Barbara
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Authentication-Warning: mail.cth.com.au: Host port26.mdts.cab.cth.com.au [216.252.223.90] claimed to be zenith
X-Sender: skerans at mail.cth.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.5 (32)
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 21:06:38 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Sel Kerans <skerans at mail.cth.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Slightly Off topic humour - school exam answers
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hello,

For many exam answers like this, see the Project Atmosphere Jokes page...

(funny exam answers included...)

http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa/jokes.htm

The project for schools is in its sixth year and running at the moment with
schools from AUS, UK, USA and Singapore...

Major web updates happening just now - thanks to those of you folks who
have offered some of your photos and links to your sites.

Cheers,

Sel.

is running at the momentAt 18:34 27/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
>The following questions and answers were collated from last year's
>British GCSE exams.  (16 year olds!)
>
>I have included only those slightly relevant to weather.
>
>Q: Name the four seasons.
>A: Salt, pepper, mustard and vinegar.
>
>Q: How is dew formed?
>A: The sun shines down on the leaves and makes them perspire.
>
>Q: What causes the tides in the oceans?
>A: The tides are a fight between the Earth and the Moon. All water tends
>   to flow towards the moon, because there is no water on the moon, and
>   nature abhors a vacuum. I forget where the sun joins in this fight.
>
>Michael
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>Michael Thompson
>http://ozthunder.com
>
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

  Sel Kerans                                        
  Coordinator                                  \|/        &&&&&
  Project Atmosphere Australia On-line         -0-  .--_|\ "/"
  WWW: http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa       /|\ /      \ \
  Email: skerans at mail.cth.com.au                   \_.--\_/ 
  EQ: sel.kerans at qed.qld.gov.au                          v
  	         
  ph 07 3881 9623 fax 07 3881 9640
                  
   *** Now taking registrations from schools around the world ***
   *** On-line activities scheduled for March, April, May 2001 ***          
 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 23:46:27 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: What's happening mid Coral Sea ?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Simon and All.

>    Hi all   Anyone noticed that cloud mass to the west north  west of New
>Caledonia ?.   Could this be another westerly moving upper low  pressure
>system in the making?   With a strong ridge building from the south,
>things  could be shaping up for some "less than boring" weather once
>again.     Regards Simon

Here is what JTWC says about it:

>ABPW10 PGTW 270600
>MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
>SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
>PACIFIC OCEAN/270600Z/280600Z MAR 01//
>RMKS//
>1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
>   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
>   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
>2. WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135 EAST):
>   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
>   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
>      (1) A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED
>NEAR 18.5S4 158.3E7. SOME CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND
>EAST OF THE LLCC BUT DOES NOT WRAP INTO THE CENTER. THE AREA IS IN A
>REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
>ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
>AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
>TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
>      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
>FORECAST TEAM: COX/MAYER/TON//

Regards,
Carl.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 28 Mar 2001 00:07:20 +1000
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: What's happening mid Coral Sea ?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Evening all,

...... looks like another mid latitude style circulation - has happend
consistently in the northern Tasman & Coral Sea region all summer (unusual for
such low latitudes). Appears to be an upper 'cool pool' system (low analysed at
300hPa)..... has moved SW over the past 24 hours & still looks a bit
weak.....will be very interesting to see what becomes of it while there's such
a dramatic synoptic scale change taking place in our part of the world atm.

Jane

Carl Smith wrote:

> Hi Simon and All.
>
> >    Hi all   Anyone noticed that cloud mass to the west north  west of New
> >Caledonia ?.   Could this be another westerly moving upper low  pressure
> >system in the making?   With a strong ridge building from the south,
> >things  could be shaping up for some "less than boring" weather once
> >again.     Regards Simon
>
> Here is what JTWC says about it:
>
> >ABPW10 PGTW 270600
> >MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
> >SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
> >PACIFIC OCEAN/270600Z/280600Z MAR 01//
> >RMKS//
> >1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
> >   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
> >   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
> >2. WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135 EAST):
> >   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
> >   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
> >      (1) A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED
> >NEAR 18.5S4 158.3E7. SOME CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND
> >EAST OF THE LLCC BUT DOES NOT WRAP INTO THE CENTER. THE AREA IS IN A
> >REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
> >ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
> >AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
> >TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
> >      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
> >FORECAST TEAM: COX/MAYER/TON//
>
> Regards,
> Carl.

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Soundings
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 10:41:35 -0700
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Laurier,

nope, still can;t access it - maybe it filters out people comming from out
of aus - can anyone verify that (people in the UK?)

Cheers, Lyle

----- Original Message -----
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, March 26, 2001 4:58 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Soundings


> id: bomw0007
> pw: aviation
>
> works ok for me at 10am Tuesday
>
> Laurier
>
> On Mon, 26 Mar 2001 16:18:17 -0700, "Lyle Pakula"
> <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu> wrote:
>
> >Hi all,
> >
> >Was wondering why the BoM soundings can not be accessed by the
> >username/password listed?
> >
> >Cheers, Lyle
> >
> >    |
> > - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- --  -    -
> >    |
> >    |  Graduate Research Assistant                     /\
> >    .  Department of Atmospheric Science           _  /  \
> >    .  Colorado State University                  / \/    \
> >       ph: +1-(970)-491-7785                     /  /~~~~~~\/\
> >    .  email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu          /~~/       /  \
> >
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Soundings
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 11:12:43 -0700
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Disregard this - problem was my IE5 - all fixed now ;)

p.s. thanks to all who replied to the Vance enquiry, i've forwarded off all
that info to those involved.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2001 10:41 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Soundings


> Hi Laurier,
>
> nope, still can;t access it - maybe it filters out people comming from out
> of aus - can anyone verify that (people in the UK?)
>
> Cheers, Lyle
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, March 26, 2001 4:58 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Soundings
>
>
> > id: bomw0007
> > pw: aviation
> >
> > works ok for me at 10am Tuesday
> >
> > Laurier
> >
> > On Mon, 26 Mar 2001 16:18:17 -0700, "Lyle Pakula"
> > <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu> wrote:
> >
> > >Hi all,
> > >
> > >Was wondering why the BoM soundings can not be accessed by the
> > >username/password listed?
> > >
> > >Cheers, Lyle
> > >
> > >    |
> > > - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- --  -    -
> > >    |
> > >    |  Graduate Research Assistant                     /\
> > >    .  Department of Atmospheric Science           _  /  \
> > >    .  Colorado State University                  / \/    \
> > >       ph: +1-(970)-491-7785                     /  /~~~~~~\/\
> > >    .  email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu          /~~/       /  \
> > >
> > >
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > > message.
> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: interesting pics
Date: Wed, 28 Mar 2001 07:39:08 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Okay what do they mean by suction spots? Do they mean that not all of the
tornado was sucking stuff up? I though all tornados suck stuff up.

David

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Barbara
Sent: Tuesday, 27 March 2001 5:12 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: interesting pics


Hi all,

I found these pics on an American web site .. they are worth a look.

http://chaseday.com/tornado-shamrock77.htm

Barbara

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Little Cell in NE NSW
Date: Wed, 28 Mar 2001 17:36:38 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

The blue especially looked so real, better than I dare to say a conventional
camera. Which of course is usually let down by crappy processing.

Michael


----- Original Message -----
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, 27 March 2001 19:19
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Little Cell in NE NSW


> Hi Michael,
> No problems with the question. It's a Kodak DC4800 and it set me back
$1164
> with a bonus 32mb picture card (ordered off the net). I also ordered a few
> different accessories, which pushed up the price, including a telephoto
lens
> (for the close ups of the tornados I see =).
>
> Dave
>
>
> >From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Little Cell in NE NSW
> >Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 18:11:50 +1000
> >
> >Nice images Dave, can I be rude enough to ask the brand and price.
> >
> >Michael
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Monday, 26 March 2001 21:40
> >Subject: aus-wx: Little Cell in NE NSW
> >
> >
> > > Hi!
> > > I got my new digital camera today and was able to christen it with a
> >lovley
> > > little cell just near Byron Bay in the Norther Rivers. It gave a short
> >but
> > > intense shower when it passed over my home (SW of Byron), but
developed
> >more
> > > as it moved away. Hope you like them =)
> > >
> > > http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0326de01.jpg
> > > http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0326de02.jpg
> > >
> > > Dave
> > >
> >_________________________________________________________________________
> > > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at
> >http://www.hotmail.com.
> > >
> > >
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> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> >to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> >your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather in Alice Springs
Date: Wed, 28 Mar 2001 17:44:37 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Thanks for these updates !

I occasionally wonder about the central Australian rivers, I know that the
Finke is supposed to be the oldest in the world. There were times even
recently in geological terms that the Alice area experienced a normal
climate more like what the last two years have been. I often wonder besides
the obvious Ice Age stuff what other triggers there may be that establish
longer term wetter patterns over central Australia. I certainly would love
to see one in my lifetime, but I suppose our memory is short and should we
visit the Alice in say 2-3 years we may be in a baking drought.

Michael




pattern that occured last summer has continued throughout this summer. The
> Finke river has been full of water non stop for the last two years. Since
> the start of the year, we've had well over 300mm - usually coming in large
> downpours. Unlike the Southern states, it has been reasonably cool here in
> comparison to about 2 years ago. Hopefully it won't get too cool like it
did
> last year - winter set in about April after a wet spell. This is way too
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Slightly Off topic humour - school exam answers
Date: Wed, 28 Mar 2001 19:44:24 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Thanks Sel, I particularly like the logic that went into ' rain is saved up
in cloud banks '.

Michael



----- Original Message -----
From: "Sel Kerans" <skerans at mail.cth.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, 27 March 2001 21:06
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Slightly Off topic humour - school exam answers


> Hello,
>
> For many exam answers like this, see the Project Atmosphere Jokes page...
>
> (funny exam answers included...)
>
> http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa/jokes.htm
>
> The project for schools is in its sixth year and running at the moment
with
> schools from AUS, UK, USA and Singapore...
>
> Major web updates happening just now - thanks to those of you folks who
> have offered some of your photos and links to your sites.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Sel.
>
> is running at the momentAt 18:34 27/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
> >The following questions and answers were collated from last year's
> >British GCSE exams.  (16 year olds!)
> >
> >I have included only those slightly relevant to weather.
> >
> >Q: Name the four seasons.
> >A: Salt, pepper, mustard and vinegar.
> >
> >Q: How is dew formed?
> >A: The sun shines down on the leaves and makes them perspire.
> >
> >Q: What causes the tides in the oceans?
> >A: The tides are a fight between the Earth and the Moon. All water tends
> >   to flow towards the moon, because there is no water on the moon, and
> >   nature abhors a vacuum. I forget where the sun joins in this fight.
> >
> >Michael
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >Michael Thompson
> >http://ozthunder.com
> >
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
>   Sel Kerans
>   Coordinator                                  \|/        &&&&&
>   Project Atmosphere Australia On-line         -0-  .--_|\ "/"
>   WWW: http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa       /|\ /      \ \
>   Email: skerans at mail.cth.com.au                   \_.--\_/
>   EQ: sel.kerans at qed.qld.gov.au                          v
>
>   ph 07 3881 9623 fax 07 3881 9640
>
>    *** Now taking registrations from schools around the world ***
>    *** On-line activities scheduled for March, April, May 2001 ***
>  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32)
Date: Wed, 28 Mar 2001 23:36:06 +1200
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: John Gaul <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
Subject: aus-wx: Cobden Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

At 18:09 27/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi John
>
>I was actually thinking of you John when I was compiling the message about
>the boring weather.
>
>I thought that my complaints would be trivial compared to what you have had
>to contend with. I also noticed that the block has finally shifted for you.
>
>Michael

Hi Michael,
The Block has shifted away allowing a bit more interesting weather to
follow through.
A tornado ripped through Cobden on the west coast of the South Island at
4.10am this morning.
It must of been a good one as there was a lot of damage down to buildings
in this NW suburb of Greymouth. We got 1.1mm from overflow off the Southern
Alps today first for 17 days.
Winds have been very westerlish of late resulting in unseasonable high
temps.32c here on Sunday.
May get some thunder tommorow/Friday ???????

John Gaul
NZ Thunderstorm soc - slightly out of recess. 
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 08:39:40 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide snow [was:Weather in Alice Springs] 
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<interesting snip>

>Earlier on, Phil Bagust I think was talking about the 1951 Snow event in
>Adelaide. He mentioned that the bureau didn't record any snow. At the time,
>my mother was living in Tusmore, which is pretty much at the same height as
>Kent Town (where the bom is), and she remembers vividly having snow fights,
>and seeing snow stick a couple of Inches deep. I'm not quite sure when the
>Bom moved to Kent Town from West Adelaide, but if it was before this date,
>then it seems strange that it didn't snow heavily enough at Kent Town for a
>measurement to be made. Anyway, I'm pretty sure nothing like this snow event
>has happened since. My 2 cents worth.
>Cheers,
>Duncan Treloar
>Alice Springs

Wow Duncan, that is amazing!  The bureau was at West Terrace back then
[they moved in 1977] which is a lower, drier, warmer site than KentTown [or
Tusmore, which is a little higher still], but based on those observations I
might have to change my mind!  Does anyone have access to the synoptic
situation in that day?  Did the cold snap affect the eastern states in the
same way? [Snow at 50m-100m altitude in Adelaide would normally mean falls
to sea level further south and east!?

Anyone?

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
      "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide snow [was:Weather in Alice Springs] 
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 11:53:04 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all
1951 was an interesting year for snow also in Victoria , I think there were
at least two major snow events that brought falls to sea level that year ,I
have some information around the house somewhere so I will do a
search!.There would be synoptic charts available but the best place to look
is the newspaper most newspapers have a historical section.The snow event in
1951 brought good covering falls to the Geelong district and many areas
around central Victoria had a full cover of snow for more than 24 hours,even
around coastal localities of Port Phillip Bay.regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 9:09 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide snow [was:Weather in Alice Springs]


>
> <interesting snip>
>
> >Earlier on, Phil Bagust I think was talking about the 1951 Snow event in
> >Adelaide. He mentioned that the bureau didn't record any snow. At the
time,
> >my mother was living in Tusmore, which is pretty much at the same height
as
> >Kent Town (where the bom is), and she remembers vividly having snow
fights,
> >and seeing snow stick a couple of Inches deep. I'm not quite sure when
the
> >Bom moved to Kent Town from West Adelaide, but if it was before this
date,
> >then it seems strange that it didn't snow heavily enough at Kent Town for
a
> >measurement to be made. Anyway, I'm pretty sure nothing like this snow
event
> >has happened since. My 2 cents worth.
> >Cheers,
> >Duncan Treloar
> >Alice Springs
>
> Wow Duncan, that is amazing!  The bureau was at West Terrace back then
> [they moved in 1977] which is a lower, drier, warmer site than KentTown
[or
> Tusmore, which is a little higher still], but based on those observations
I
> might have to change my mind!  Does anyone have access to the synoptic
> situation in that day?  Did the cold snap affect the eastern states in the
> same way? [Snow at 50m-100m altitude in Adelaide would normally mean falls
> to sea level further south and east!?
>
> Anyone?
>
> Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
> - - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
>       "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [210.8.232.5]
From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide snow [was:Weather in Alice Springs]
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 01:34:18 
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Mar 2001 01:34:19.0096 (UTC) FILETIME=[5FA38580:01C0B7F0]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi Phil and Duncan,

The BoM has an interesting page on low level snow-falls
This century at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/c20thc/temp4.shtml

The following extract from the above site deals with the
1951 event and provides some dates (to assist anyone
searching newspaper records).

"In winter 1951 snow blanketed most of Tasmania twice within three weeks 
(19-20 July and 9 August), blocking roads and interrupting mail services. On 
9 August snow had to be shovelled from the streets of Queenstown (elevation 
191 metres). Light snow also fell in the streets and suburbs of Melbourne, 
and in Adelaide as well during the July event."

Patrick

>
><interesting snip>
>
> >Earlier on, Phil Bagust I think was talking about the 1951 Snow event in
> >Adelaide. He mentioned that the bureau didn't record any snow. At the 
>time,
> >my mother was living in Tusmore, which is pretty much at the same height 
>as
> >Kent Town (where the bom is), and she remembers vividly having snow 
>fights,
> >and seeing snow stick a couple of Inches deep. I'm not quite sure when 
>the
> >Bom moved to Kent Town from West Adelaide, but if it was before this 
>date,
> >then it seems strange that it didn't snow heavily enough at Kent Town for 
>a
> >measurement to be made. Anyway, I'm pretty sure nothing like this snow 
>event
> >has happened since. My 2 cents worth.
> >Cheers,
> >Duncan Treloar
> >Alice Springs
>
>Wow Duncan, that is amazing!  The bureau was at West Terrace back then
>[they moved in 1977] which is a lower, drier, warmer site than KentTown [or
>Tusmore, which is a little higher still], but based on those observations I
>might have to change my mind!  Does anyone have access to the synoptic
>situation in that day?  Did the cold snap affect the eastern states in the
>same way? [Snow at 50m-100m altitude in Adelaide would normally mean falls
>to sea level further south and east!?
>
>Anyone?
>

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.01 (1630)
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 15:39:29 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: ANZ ad
From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        wz list <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Anybody see the ANZ add in today's SMH? An awesome satpic showing a cat 4-5
TC over every capital city. Canberra somehow missed out. Hilarious.
-- 
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
http://www.theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 15:21:51 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        aussie-weather at theweather.com.au
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: SUMMARY: December TC Summary
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

                  MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY

                             DECEMBER, 2000

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  ***********************************************************************

                          DECEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

  --> Intense tropical cyclone strikes Northwestern Australia
  --> Intense typhoon rapidly intensifies, then rapidly weakens
  --> Cyclone of hurricane intensity strikes Sri Lanka

  ***********************************************************************

              ***** Feature of the Month for December *****

                   ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS OF 2000
                                 (Part 3)
                   ------------------------------------

     This is Part 3 of a three-part feature detailing cyclonic systems
  of 2000 in the Atlantic which were either subtropical storms or
  depressions or else exhibited some of the features of subtropical
  cyclones.  The information presented below is taken from material
  supplied by David Roth of HPC.  Please refer to Part 1 in the October
  summary for more background information and some explanations and
  caveats.

     I am repeating here the table of subtropical/hybrid systems which
  David provided.     (Numbers in parentheses following the storm
  designation refer to explanatory notes below.)

     I.     Subtropical Depression       May 19-25
    II.     Alberto  (1)                 August 14-16
   III.     Subtropical Storm  (2)       August 28-30
    IV.     Subtropical Depression       September 10-11
     V.     Florence  (3)                September 10-12
    VI.     Gordon  (1)                  September 17-18
   VII.     Helene  (1)                  September 24-25
  VIII.     Subtropical Storm  (2)       September 30-October 3
    IX.     Leslie  (3)                  October 4-8
     X.     Michael  (3)                 October 14-17
    XI.     Subtropical Storm  (4)       October 25-28


  (1) The official NHC "best tracks" do not treat any portion of Alberto,
      Gordon, or Helene as subtropical.   In general, once a tropical
      cyclone has been named, NHC treats it as a tropical system through-
      out the remainder of its life--both operationally and in post-
      analysis--even if at some point it exhibited some subtropical
      features.

  (2) According to Jack Beven, these two systems possibly could qualify
      as subtropical storms pending a careful analysis of all the
      available data.  For the time being they should be regarded as
      possible subtropical storms.

  (3) Subtropical portions of the tracks of Florence, Leslie, and Michael
      are designated in the "best tracks" for these cyclones.  The dates
      of their subtropical phases, however, might not necessarily agree
      with those David has assigned above.

  (4) This storm has already been officially recognized as a subtropical
      storm by TPC/NHC.


     Part 1 (October summary), in addition to some introductory material,
  contained David's discussions of two of the systems occurring in
  October (Nrs VIII and XI in the table above).  The November summary
  (Part 2) featured some of the named tropical cyclones which exhibited
  hybrid or subtropical characteristics for part of their lives.  This
  final installment discusses the remaining subtropical systems which
  David identified: subtropical depressions in May and September (Nrs I
  and IV) and a possible subtropical storm in August (Nr III).


  I. Subtropical Depression, May 19-25.  Satellite images and surface
  analyses revealed a frontal wave developing south-southeast of Bermuda
  on the 17th.  Over the next couple of days, a 500-mb LOW cut off in
  its vicinity, leading to occlusion.  By the 19th the system became
  devoid of fronts and had entered the subtropical stage.  Its main
  nontropical characteristic was a dry slot that encircled the center on
  the 19th.  Development of the cyclone occurred over 24 C waters and
  convection was present well east and northeast of the center which
  slowly warmed its core.  The system reached its peak just as it entered
  the subtropical stage, and weakened steadily thereafter as upper-level
  winds out of the west began shearing the cyclone to the east, exposing
  a low-level swirl on the 20th.  The circulation became elongated on
  the 23rd with multiple circulation centers before becoming absorbed
  into a warm front on the 24th and 25th.  No gale-force winds were
  reported on the surface maps with this cyclone, though gales were
  possible.  The highest winds reported were 30 kts.   (Some information
  on this system was reported in the May global summary.)


  III. Possible Subtropical Storm, August 28-30.  Hurricane Debby had
  dissipated in the northwestern Caribbean on the 24th.  Some of its
  weather spread northward as a cold front was invading northern Florida.
  A tropical disturbance formed over 28 C waters in the inverted trough
  ahead of the cold front on the 28th near the Bahamas as a closed 500-mb
  LOW (with temps of -12 C at that level) was entering the scene from the
  mid-Atlantic.  The 29th featured a complex situation, as a mesoscale
  convective complex formed to the east of the northward-moving LOW and
  accelerated northeastward in an area (confirmed by ship reports) of
  uniform southerly winds.  The frontal boundary in the LOW's vicinity
  had weakened, and thunderstorms were constricted to its east side as
  winds aloft were westerly and its central pressure was falling.

     On the 30th a tight circulation formed off North Carolina with a
  small, concentrated area of thunderstorms as the LOW was swung around
  the 500-mb LOW.  Gale-force winds were reported by two buoys near the
  coast, but existed only briefly as the system soon moved inland near
  Wilmington and subsequently weakened.  Operationally this LOW was
  treated as a nontropical gale, but some local forecast discussions
  addressed the cyclone as subtropical with one or two believing it to
  be fully tropical.  However, a large dry slot was present to the south-
  west and south of the center--a definite nontropical characteristic.
  As the LOW moved inland, it dumped an average of 50-75 mm of rain near
  and to the right of its track from North Carolina west-southwestward
  into northern Georgia.  The closed low-level circulation dissipated
  near Atlanta on the evening of the 30th.

     More information on this system can be found in the global summary
  for August.  Jack Beven of TPC/NHC has indicated that all available
  data for this cyclone will be carefully examined to see if it qualifies
  for inclusion in the Best Track database as a subtropical storm.


  IV. Subtropical Depression, September 10-11.  A frontal wave formed
  southwest of Bermuda on the 9th.  The system quickly occluded and shed
  its frontal boundaries by the 10th while sitting over 26 C waters.  It
  moved eastward as a cold front approached on the 11th, moving south of
  the Azores.  By the 12th the circulation had been absorbed into this
  front.  The highest winds seen were 20 kts via ship reports and land
  observations, which were sparse.

  ***********************************************************************

                           ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for December: No tropical cyclones

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for December: No tropical cyclones

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for December: 1 tropical depression **
                         1 typhoon ++

  ** - treated as a tropical depression by PAGASA only

  ++ - system did not reach typhoon intensity until early January, 2001

  NOTE:  Most of the information on each cyclone's history presented in
  the narrative will be based upon JTWC's advisories, and references to
  winds should be understood as a 1-min avg MSW unless otherwise noted.
  However, in the accompanying tracking document I have made comparisons
  of coordinates with JMA (Japan) and the Philippines (PAGASA) when their
  positions differed from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.  A special
  thanks to Michael V. Padua, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, for
  sending me the PAGASA and JMA tracks.

     In the title line for each storm I plan to reference all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:    JTWC's depression number, the
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their area
  of responsibility.


              Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for December
              ------------------------------------------------

     As the month of December opened Tropical Storm Rumbia/Toyang was
  in the process of crossing the southern Philippines.  The storm moved
  westward into the South China Sea, weakened into a tropical depression,
  later re-intensified briefly into a minimal tropical storm, and finally
  dissipated near the southern tip of Vietnam.  (Please see the November
  summary for the full report on Rumbia.)

     A tropical disturbance developed early in the month east of the
  Philippines and moved westward into the central portions of the
  archipelago.  JTWC never issued any warnings on this system, although
  it was given a development potential of Fair on a couple of occasions.
  PAGASA, however, upgraded the system to a tropical depression on
  6 December and assigned the name Ulpiang.  Tropical Depression Ulpiang
  remained broad and disorganized but moved through the central
  Philippines where it brought very heavy rains which led to extensive
  flooding and loss of life.  Based upon PAGASA's track (forwarded to me
  by Michael V. Padua), Ulpiang's center crossed over the island of
  Samar, then through the cluster of smaller islands lying to the west of
  Samar, eventually reaching the vicinity of Mindoro where it weakened to
  the point that warnings were discontinued.

     According to Mike Padua, Naga City (his hometown) was flooded by
  the rains of Ulpiang.  Two stations south of Naga City (Lake Bato and
  Ligao) each recorded 200 mm of rain in the 24-hour period ending at
  6:00 am on the 8th.  Ocampo, located a short distance southeast of the
  city, recorded 160 mm in the same period.    While Naga City itself
  recorded only 68 mm, the city was flooded because it lies below sea
  level and is in the catchment basin of the Bicol River (including its
  tributaries).   At least 20 fatalities were caused by the depression's
  rains, the majority occurring on the island of Panay, although three
  persons were killed in a landslide in the Bicol region of southeastern
  Luzon.   More than 50,000 persons were displaced when floods inundated
  16 towns and Roxas City (on Panay).    Many roads and bridges were
  damaged and hundreds of hectares of rice fields and other farms were
  flooded.

     The final tropical storm of 2000 also became the first typhoon of
  2001.  Tropical Storm Soulik formed deep in the tropics east of the
  southern Philippines late in the month, moved generally northward,
  and as the month (and year) closed was headed northeastward out into
  the Philippine Sea and weakening.   However, on 3 January the storm
  intensified with extreme rapidity into an intense 115-kt midget
  typhoon which, after maintaining that intensity for only twelve hours,
  encountered strong vertical shear and dry air and dissipated almost as
  quickly as it had intensified.



                Typhoon Soulik  (TC-34W / TY 0023 / Welpring)
                       28 December - 5 January, 2001
                ---------------------------------------------

  Soulik: contributed by the Federated States of Micronesia, is a
          traditional Pohnpei Chief's title

     The final NWP tropical cyclone of 2000 was at the same time the
  first typhoon of 2001.  After forming deep in the tropics east of
  Mindanao and peaking at 55 kts on 31 December, Tropical Storm Soulik
  had begun to weaken by 2 January and was forecast to continue to
  dissipate.  However, the capricious storm had other ideas.  The
  storm's intensity (based on JTWC's 1-min MSW estimates) literally
  exploded on 3 January, increasing from 45 kts to 115 kts in just 18
  hours!  And then after only 12 hours, the storm weakened from a 115-kt
  typhoon to a 25-kt dissipating depression in only 30 hours.  Episodes
  of such rapid intensification are rare in tropical cyclones, but none-
  theless do occur and emphasize why even weaker storms which may appear
  to be weakening should not be written off too soon.  Rapid dissipation
  of cyclones such as that exhibited by Soulik is also not common.
  Soulik's demise was reminiscent of the decay of Typhoon Jack in
  December, 1989.  Jack weakened from 120 kts to 30 kts in a 30-hour
  period.

     An area of convection developed on 27 December about midway between
  Palau and Mindanao.  A broad LLCC was present with the most persistent
  convection to the north.  Vertical wind shear was weak and outflow was
  fair.   JTWC upgraded the development potential to Fair at 28/0600 UTC
  and issued a Formation Alert at 28/1930 UTC.  Organization had improved
  with increased convective banding noted.    A 28/1712 UTC TRMM pass
  depicted a fully-exposed LLCC located about 200 nm east of the island
  of Mindanao with the deep convection sheared to the north.  The trend
  toward further development continued and JTWC initiated warnings on
  TD-34W at 29/0000 UTC.   PAGASA also upgraded the disturbance to a
  tropical depression at the same time and named it Welpring.   A ship
  report at 29/0000 UTC about 60 nm west of the center indicated a
  northwesterly wind of 22 kts.  The initial warning indicated that the
  depression was quasi-stationary, but the next warning at 0600 UTC
  relocated the center about 100 nm to the north of the previous warning
  position based on visible satellite imagery and a 29/0143 UTC ERS-2
  scatterometer pass.  TD-34W/Welpring was moving slowly northward and
  was forecast to continue this motion due to the steering influence of
  a low- to mid-level ridge east of the system.

     PAGASA was already estimating the 10-min avg MSW at 30 kts, but JTWC
  increased their MSW estimate to 30 kts at 1200 UTC based on a synoptic
  ship report of 28 kts.  At 1800 UTC JTWC relocated the center of the
  depression once more, this time to the west as the convection was
  beginning to consolidate over the LLCC.  TD-34/Welpring had also begun
  to track to the northwest as it intensified.  A synoptic ship report
  of 35 kts around 30/0000 UTC led to the system's being upgraded to a
  tropical storm by JTWC, PAGASA and JMA, with JMA assigning the name
  Soulik.  Soulik's center at the time was located approximately 200 nm
  east of Surigao on the northern tip of Mindanao, moving northwestward
  at 9 kts.  This northwestward motion was forecast to come to a halt
  and a northeasterly track commence as a mid-latitude trough approached
  and weakened the ridge which was steering the storm.    This forecast
  soon came to pass.    At 30/1200 UTC Tropical Storm Soulik reached the
  westernmost point of its trajectory about 135 nm northeast of Surigao;
  by 1800 UTC the storm was moving northeastward.    Soulik's MSW had
  reached 55 kts (per JTWC) by 0000 UTC on 31 December and the cyclone
  maintained this intensity for three days before weakening some.  (JMA's
  estimated peak 10-min avg wind was 50 kts for the same 72-hour period.)

     During this time Soulik moved generally on a northeastward to
  east-northeastward course.  Interestingly, at 1200 UTC on the 31st,
  JTWC received satellite current intensity estimates of 45, 55, and
  77 kts.   The JTWC warning at 0000 UTC on 1 January noted that the
  storm was located at the tail end of a long front extending southeast
  across the Philippine Sea.    The convection had become elongated,
  although the LLCC still appeared to be organized.  At 1800 UTC JTWC
  relocated Soulik to a position 60 nm southeast of the previous warning
  position or about 625 nm west-northwest of Guam.   A 01/1534 UTC TRMM
  pass depicted a partially-exposed LLCC southeast of the isolated deep
  convection.  A 700-mb HIGH east of the Mariana Islands with an
  associated ridge extending southwestward over Mindanao was expected
  to continue steering Soulik east-northeastward.

     The storm continued to show signs of weakening on 2 January.  Areal
  extent of deep convection decreased and animated water vapor imagery
  revealed transverse banding just north of the system, indicative of
  strong westerlies aloft.  JTWC and JMA both decreased their respective
  MSW estimates to 45 kts at 02/0600 UTC.   Satellite imagery around
  1200 UTC showed that the LLCC was embedded about 60 nm under the cirrus
  cloud shield, but a 02/0906 UTC SSM/I pass depicted weakening banding
  and organization with a partially-exposed LLCC south of the deepest
  convection.  Soulik was forecast to continue weakening, but the storm
  maintained its intensity throughout the day.    The storm's forward
  motion had slowed, thereby allowing deep convection to consolidate once
  more around the center.  JTWC increased the MSW to 55 kts at 0000 UTC
  on the 3rd while JMA upped their maximum 10-min avg wind estimate to
  50 kts.  Soulik was at that time located about 570 nm south-southwest
  of Iwo Jima and moving northward at 5 kts.

     Shortly after 03/0000 UTC, however, the fireworks really started!
  Based upon satellite intensity estimates ranging from 65 to 115 kts,
  JTWC upgraded Soulik to a 105-kt typhoon at 0600 UTC.  The storm had
  intensified very rapidly during the previous six hours and sported a
  7-nm round eye.    A 200-mb analysis revealed an upper-level HIGH
  developing over the system and animated water vapor imagery depicted
  good outflow aloft.      Typhoon Soulik reached its peak estimated
  intensity of 115 kts (per JTWC) at 1200 UTC on 3 January when it was
  located about 500 nm southwest of Iwo Jima.   Satellite intensity
  estimates were ranging from 90 to 127 kts.   At its peak Soulik was a
  small, symmetric system with intense central convection.  50-kt winds
  extended outward from the center only 25 nm to the southeast and gales
  covered an area only 140 nm in diameter.    JMA's peak 10-min avg wind
  estimate for Soulik was 80 kts at 03/1800 UTC.   Even as the cyclone
  reached its peak, cooler, drier air was impinging on its northwestern
  quadrant and convection was beginning to elongate to the northeast.

     As noted earlier, the demise of Typhoon Soulik was not much less
  rapid than its intensification with the storm weakening (per JTWC's
  MSW) from 115 kts to 25 kts in 30 hours.   Strong vertical shear and
  colder, drier air that was entrained into the system were the primary
  culprits responsible for the quick extinction of Soulik.  The MSW had
  fallen to 65 kts--minimal typhoon intensity--by 1200 UTC on 4 January
  when it was located about 440 nm southwest of Iwo Jima, and 12 hours
  later Soulik was a dissipating depression.  The 1200 UTC warning noted
  that the weakening storm's motion had changed to the southeast, but the
  final JTWC warning at 05/0000 UTC relocated the center about 170 nm to
  the southwest of the previous analysis position (to a point about
  700 nm east of Catanduanes Island in the Philippines).  This relocation
  was based upon the first visible satellite pictures of the day.  The
  intensity was lowered from 50 kts to 25 kts with animated satellite
  imagery indicating a fully-exposed LLCC which was beginning to break
  down on the southern side.   (The JMV file for Typhoon Soulik, which
  may be considered a first cut at a Best Track, begins to move the storm
  back to the south-southwest at 04/1200 UTC and also reduces the MSW
  to 55 kts at 1200 UTC and to 40 kts at 1800 UTC.)     In its earlier
  stages Tropical Storm Soulik/Welpring approached to within about 100 nm
  of northern Mindanao in the Philippines and would likely have led to
  some enhanced rainfall in the region, but the author has learned of no
  damage or casualties resulting from this tropical cyclone.   If any
  come to light later they will be reported in a future summary.

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for December: 1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity

  NOTE:  The tracking and intensity information for North Indian Ocean
  Basin tropical cyclones is based primarily upon operational warnings
  from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy
  (JTWC) at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.  Occasionally some information may
  be gleaned from the daily Tropical Weather Outlooks and other bulletins
  issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the
  WMO's RSMC for the basin.

     The MSW are based on a 1-min averaging period, which is used by
  all U. S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone
  warnings.  For synoptic observations in the North Indian region,
  both 10-min and 3-min average winds are employed, but IMD makes no
  attempt to modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone
  intensity; hence, a 1-min avg MSW is implied.  In the North Indian
  basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system is
  well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status within
  48 hours.


             North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for December
             -------------------------------------------------

     As the month of December opened the remnants of Tropical Cyclone 03B
  (which had reached hurricane intensity in November) were moving west-
  ward across the Arabian Sea.     The system briefly regained minimal
  tropical storm intensity on the 3rd but had dissipated by the 6th
  several hundred miles off the coast of Somalia.  The final NIO tropical
  cyclone of the year formed on Christmas Day east of Sri Lanka and
  struck the island as a hurricane on the 26th.  The system then began
  to weaken, moved over the southern tip of India, and had dissipated
  by the 29th.


                         Tropical Cyclone  (TC-04B)
                               25 - 28 December
                         --------------------------

     Almost exactly a month after the last Bay of Bengal storm formed,
  another tropical cyclone formed in the Bay and also reached minimal
  hurricane intensity.  TC-03B in November had struck southeastern India
  near Pondicherry, but this month's TC-04B followed a very low-latitude
  track and became the first tropical cyclone to strike the island nation
  of Sri Lanka since TC-10B struck the island with 55-kt winds on
  12 November 1992.  That particular storm left 13 persons dead in Sri
  Lanka, and later claimed over 200 lives in extreme southern India
  where it struck with 70-kt winds on the 13th.  (This information was
  gleaned from some of Jack Beven's Weekly Global Tropical Cyclone
  Summaries, which were the predecessors to the current series of monthly
  summaries.)     TC-04B was the first tropical cyclone of hurricane
  intensity in the Bay of Bengal in the month of December since TC-08B
  in 1996.  (In 1998 TC-08A reached minimal hurricane intensity in the
  Arabian Sea in mid-December.)

     Because of its very low latitude (the northern tip is just south of
  10N), and also by virtue of its being located in a basin with a low
  frequency of tropical cyclone formation, Sri Lanka only rarely receives
  a direct strike by one of these storms.  At present the author does not
  know the last occasion prior to 2000 when a tropical cyclone of full
  hurricane intensity struck the island.  No hurricanes have struck Sri
  Lanka since at least 1987.   In November, 1978, a hurricane (designated
  as TC 21-78 by JTWC) struck the island with 95-kt winds near Batticaloa
  where sustained winds of 85 kts were reported two hours before the
  center reached the coast.     More than 1000 lives were lost in that
  cyclone and many thousands of acres of crops were destroyed by the
  storm's winds, rain, and associated storm surge.  (This information
  was taken from the 1978 Annual Typhoon Report from JTWC.)

     A STWO issued by JTWC at 1800 UTC on 21 December mentioned that an
  area of convection had developed and persisted very deep in the tropics
  in the central Bay of Bengal.  The convection was in a region of weak
  vertical wind shear and a QuikScat pass indicated a possible LLCC.  The
  disturbance remained quasi-stationary over the next couple of days, and
  by the 23rd central convection had increased and a mid-level cyclonic
  circulation had begun to develop.   The system had moved westward and
  was located about 240 nm east of Sri Lanka at 23/0700 UTC when the
  first of two Formation Alerts was issued.   The disturbance continued
  to slowly become better organized and a second Formation Alert was
  issued at 24/0700 UTC when the LLCC was located approximately 140 nm
  east of Sri Lanka.  A 23/2338 UTC QuikScat pass indicated that the weak
  LLCC was located south of the main convection and JTWC estimated the
  maximum winds at 20-25 kts.

     The STWO issued at 24/1800 UTC noted that animated satellite imagery
  depicted a decrease in overall organization with some weakening of the
  convection; however, this trend apparently soon reversed itself:  at
  0600 UTC on the 25th JTWC issued the first warning on TC-04B with an
  initial warning intensity of 40 kts.  The cyclone was located about
  135 nm east of Sri Lanka and was drifting westward at 2 kts.  Satellite
  imagery indicated that the LLCC had moved under the deep convection,
  thus leading to the increase in Dvorak numbers.     A subtropical
  ridge to the north steered the storm slowly westward as it steadily
  intensified.   The MSW had reached 55 kts by 1800 UTC and animated
  infrared imagery showed improving organization with good outflow in
  all quadrants.      A 25/1602 UTC SSM/I pass depicted the primary
  convective band wrapping tightly into the system center.

     The center of TC-04B made landfall around 0600 UTC on 26 December
  in eastern Sri Lanka near Trincomalee with the MSW estimated at 65 kts.
  Although the cyclone weakened some while over land, it maintained its
  organization rather well.  By 0600 UTC on the 27th the storm's center
  had emerged back over water along the western coast of Sri Lanka with
  the MSW estimated at 50 kts.    The cyclone was forecast to slowly
  re-intensify for at least the next 48 hours, but this failed to happen.
  The intensity was decreased to 45 kts at 1800 UTC as satellite imagery
  had indicated weakening convection and decreasing organization during
  the previous few hours.  The center of TC-04B was located about 120 nm
  northwest of Colombo, Sri Lanka, but most of the deep convection lay
  to the west-northwest of the center over southern India.

     By 0600 UTC on 28 December the system had reached the coast of
  extreme southern India and was centered about 25 nm northeast of Cape
  Comorin.  Convection had continued to weaken and become less organized,
  and most of the deeper convection was sheared to the west-northwest of
  the LLCC.   JTWC decreased the MSW to 35 kts at 0600 UTC, and issued
  the final warning on the system at 1800 UTC with the rapidly weakening
  center still over land about 40 nm north-northwest of Cape Comorin.
  What little convection remained was very weak and displaced well north
  of the system's center; satellite imagery showed primarily low- and
  mid-level clouds near the center.

     Even though only a minimal hurricane at landfall, the cyclone was
  quite destructive to Sri Lanka.   Fortunately the death toll was low:
  seven fatalities was the highest reported number available to the
  author.  However, over 75,000 families were left homeless (upwards of
  half a million individuals) in the districts of Ampara, Batticaloa,
  Mannar, Anuradhapura, Trinacomalee, and Polonnaruwa.     The fishing
  village of Pulmudai was reportedly destroyed, and about 20,000 hectares
  of rice fields were damaged.   Many of the affected areas had already
  been experiencing flooding due to monsoon rains and the cyclone served
  to exacerbate the flooding.  (In the Ampara district 94,000 persons had
  been rendered homeless in late November due to flooding from monsoon
  rains.)   There was some wind-related damage reported:  several police
  stations and military camps had their roofs blown off due to strong
  winds gusting between 80 and 95 kts (more than likely estimated
  values).  Also, apparently many homes experienced the loss of their
  roofs--a report indicated that tens of thousands of people were being
  housed in temporary shelters due to the winds sweeping away the roofs
  of their houses.  In southern India, heavy rains reportedly fell in
  the Tuticorin region of Tamil Nadu state but no damage or casualties
  were mentioned in the press report.

  ***********************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for December:  No tropical cyclones

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for December:  1 severe tropical cyclone

  NOTE:  The primary sources of information for Australian Region
  tropical cyclones are the warnings and bulletins issued by the three
  TCWC's at Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane.   Information gleaned from
  JTWC's warnings was used as a supplement for times when it was
  impossible to obtain Australian bulletins and for comparison purposes.
  References to sustained winds should be understood as being based on a
  10-min averaging period unless otherwise noted.

     A description of the Australian Cyclone Severity Scale, which is
  alluded to in the narrative below, can be found in Chris Landsea's FAQ
  on HRD's website:

     <http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqD.html#D2>

  or on Michael Bath's Australian Severe Weather site:

     <http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/cyclones/history.htm>

     A special thanks is due to Mark Kersemakers of the Darwin TCWC for
  forwarding to me a summary of Tropical Cyclone Sam.  Also, a special
  thanks to Carl Smith, a cyclone enthusiast who lives on Queensland's
  Gold Coast, for sending me a report he'd written on Sam from which I
  extracted some information.  Much tropical cyclone-related information
  can be found on Carl's website:

     <http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/>



                  Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean
                        Tropical Activity for December
                  ------------------------------------------

     The 2000-2001 tropical cyclone season in northwestern Australia got
  off to a start in a manner remarkably similar to the previous year.
  In early December, 1999, a very intense Cyclone John made landfall at
  Whim Creek, just east of Roebourne, as a Category 5 cyclone on the
  Australian Cyclone Severity Scale.  This year's Cyclone Sam made land-
  fall also as a Category 5 cyclone (perhaps only slightly less intense
  than John) in Western Australia, but about 400 km to the east near
  Bidyadanga, southwest of Broome.      (In 1999 a much weaker Tropical
  Cyclone Ilsa followed on the heels of John and made landfall a few days
  later in the same general area as this year's Tropical Cyclone Sam.)
  Actually, this was the third consecutive year to feature a December
  Category 5 cyclone making landfall in northwestern Australia.   In
  December, 1998, Severe Tropical Cyclone Thelma battered Darwin with
  hurricane-force gusts and eventually made landfall at peak intensity
  along the Kimberley coast near the Northern Territory/Western Australia
  border.  However, the 1998-1999 season had gotten off to a very early
  start with Cyclone Zelia forming farther out in the Southeast Indian
  Ocean in early October, followed by Alison in November and Billy in
  early December.



                   Severe Tropical Cyclone Sam  (TC-03S)
                               3 - 10 December
                   -------------------------------------

     The daily TWO from Darwin on 28 November mentioned that a broad
  area of low pressure had formed in the southeastern Arafura Sea west
  of the Cape York Peninsula.  The LOW moved steadily westward for the
  next few days, passing north of the Northern Territory's Top End on
  the 29th and 30th, and by 1 December had reached a point in the Timor
  Sea about 230 nm northwest of Darwin and became quasi-stationary.  A
  STWO issued by JTWC at 0300 UTC on 1 December indicated persistent
  convection in the area with fair outflow aloft.  The Darwin TCWC began
  issuing tropical cyclone advices on the LOW at 5:00 pm CST on the
  2nd (0730 UTC).  The center of the still-broad circulation was located
  about 250 nm northwest of Darwin and was moving slowly southwestward.
  The STWO issued by JTWC at 1800 UTC on the 2nd indicated that outflow
  had improved and convection was becoming increasingly organized.

     Darwin began issuing High Seas gale warnings at 03/0600 UTC as the
  LOW continued to show signs of further development.  The system moved
  generally very slowly southward over the next 24 hours and had reached
  the Kimberley coast by 0130 UTC on the 4th about 90 km (50 nm) east of
  Kalumburu.    The center of the LOW tracked farther inland as it
  moved west-southwestward over the north Kimberley region.  This track
  over land delayed the strengthening of the system, but once it moved
  back out over the warm Timor Sea waters, intensification proceeded at
  a steady pace.  At 04/1800 UTC the center of the LOW was relocated
  north of the previous position to a point on the coastline about
  180 km (100 nm) west-southwest of Kulumburu and 480 km (260 nm)
  northeast of Broome.  The center was moving westward at 8 kts out
  into the Timor Sea.

     JTWC issued a Formation Alert at 04/1700 UTC, noting that the system
  was beneath the subtropical ridge and the development potential was
  considered good.  The Perth TCWC assumed warning responsibility for the
  developing tropical cyclone at 04/2200 UTC as the center had moved west
  of 125E, and JTWC issued their first warning on TC-03S at 05/0000 UTC.
  The LOW was christened Tropical Cyclone Sam at 0400 UTC when it was
  centered about 75 nm north of Kuri Bay.    The 10-min avg MSW was
  estimated to be around 40-45 kts.  A 05/0958 SSM/I pass depicted a
  partially-exposed LLCC with convection displaced to the southwest.  At
  the time Sam was north of the subtropical ridge axis under 15 to 25-kt
  northeasterly flow which was inhibiting development somewhat.   The
  cyclone's intensity increased slowly for about 48 hours after being
  upgraded as it moved westward off the coast of Western Australia.
  Perth had increased the MSW to 55 kts by 2200 UTC on the 5th while
  JTWC's 1-min avg MSW was lower at 45 kts.   However, JTWC estimated
  that the peak 1-min avg MSW had reached 55 kts by 06/1200 UTC.  Sam's
  convective organization was improving and the storm was under favorable
  outflow aloft.  A 06/0945 UTC SSM/I pass depicted a primary band of
  convection on the west wrapping into the northern quadrant of the
  system.   At 1000 UTC on 6 December the cyclone's center was located
  approximately 170 nm north-northwest of Broome and moving toward the
  west-southwest at 5 kts.

     Sam's motion became increasingly southwestward during the evening
  (local) of the 6th.  JTWC increased the 1-min avg MSW to 65 kts in the
  07/0000 UTC warning based on satellite intensity estimates.  Animated
  satellite imagery depicted increasing organization with a tightly-
  curved banding eye feature, a feature which had been noted earlier in
  microwave imagery.  Perth's 10-min avg MSW was in good agreement: at
  2200 UTC the estimate was 60 kts and the intensity was increased to
  70 kts at 0400 UTC on the 7th, making Sam a Category 3 cyclone.  The
  storm's center was then located about 65 nm northwest of Broome, or
  approximately 90 nm north-northwest of Bidyadanga, moving south-
  southwestward at 6 kts.   During the late afternoon and evening (local)
  of 7 December Tropical Cyclone Sam began to intensify rapidly into
  a very severe cyclone.   Perth upgraded the storm to a Category 4
  cyclone at 1400 UTC (10:00 pm WST) and JTWC issued an offtime warning
  at 1800 UTC (JTWC normally issues warnings every 12 hours for Southern
  Hemisphere cyclones) to upgrade the MSW to 115 kts (up from 85 kts six
  hours earlier).  Sam was sporting a well-defined 25-nm diameter eye at
  this time, although the storm was under some moderate vertical wind
  shear.  (According to Mark Lander, around 07/1200 UTC the objective
  (digital) Dvorak rating for Sam reached T7.7!)

     The cyclone, after moving to the south-southwest, slowly jogged for
  awhile a bit more to the southwest before turning southeastward toward
  the coast.   By 2000 UTC Perth had upgraded Sam to a Category 5 cyclone
  with an estimated CP of 920 nm and peak gusts estimated at 150 kts--
  corresponding to a maximum 10-min avg wind of about 105 kts.   Sam
  became almost stationary for a few hours about 65 nm northwest of
  Bidyadanga before commencing the southeastward movement that would
  carry it inland near the same community.    At 0600 UTC on 8 December
  JTWC increased the 1-min avg MSW estimate to the peak value for the
  storm of 125 kts.   The eye, well-defined and about 15 nm in diameter,
  was centered about 40 nm west-northwest of Bidyadanga, moving south-
  eastward at about 7 kts.   The center of Severe Tropical Cyclone Sam
  crossed the coast just west of Bidyadanga around 1100 UTC (7:00 pm WST)
  on 8 December at its peak intensity.    By 1600 UTC the eye had just
  about completed crossing the coast with the center inland to the south
  of Bidyadanga.   Convection was beginning to weaken but radar imagery
  revealed a strong convective band northwest of the eye moving onshore
  near La Grange Bay.

     After making landfall the powerful cyclone continued moving south-
  eastward across the Great Sandy Desert as it slowly weakened.  By
  08/2200 UTC the center of the by-now Category 3 cyclone was located
  approximately 100 km south-southeast of Bidyadanga with peak gusts
  estimated at 110 kts.   The final warning from JTWC was issued at
  0600 UTC on 9 December with the MSW (1-min avg) still estimated
  at 65 kts.  The warning noted that although convection was weakening,
  Sam still maintained some tightly-wrapped banding features.    At
  09/1000 UTC Sam's center was located 165 km northeast of Telfer and
  moving southeastward at 15 km/hr.  Gusts exceeding hurricane force were
  still reported to be occurring near the center.   The storm was down-
  graded to a Category 1 cyclone at 1300 UTC, and the final advice was
  issued on the weakening Sam at 1200 UTC on the 10th (8:00 pm WST),
  placing the center about 305 km east of Telfer.  The advice indicated
  that there was still a possibility of a few gales with gusts reaching
  near 50 kts, but those were expected to moderate within a few hours.
  The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Sam persisted as a rain-bearing LOW
  for several days as it drifted eastward across northern Australia.

     Most of the 200-plus residents of the Aboriginal community of
  Bidyadanga were evacuated before the cyclone struck; however, press
  reports indicated that around 30 persons elected to remain behind and
  ride out the storm (although a later report mentioned that only three
  people refused to leave).    Major structural damage appeared to be
  light with only a few buildings severely damaged, but many trees, power
  lines, sheds and fences were downed.  The Anna Plains homestead station
  south of Broome was extensively damaged with staff quarters and sheds
  demolished.  The station also lost power and water during the cyclone.
  Shelamar reported 520 mm of rainfall in the 48 hours ending at 9:00 am
  on 11 December, but most of this likely fell within a 24-hour period
  since the community was evacuated for a time and no 24-hour reading
  was taken.

     There was a report from Reuters that 163 illegal immigrants were
  feared drowned after two boats which had left Indonesia, bound for the
  Ashmore Islands (about 600 km off the coast of northwestern Australia),
  had been caught in Tropical Cyclone Sam and sank.  A Japanese tanker
  reportedly picked up four survivors.  This story has apparently never
  been confirmed, but there is no reason to doubt it since five boatloads
  of illegal immigrants did arrive in Australian waters in the week
  following the cyclone, proving that refugee-laden boats were in the
  area at the time.

  ***********************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for December:  1 tropical LOW

  NOTE:  The primary sources of information for Australian Region
  tropical cyclones are the warnings and bulletins issued by the three
  TCWC's at Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane.   Information gleaned from
  JTWC's warnings was used as a supplement for times when it was
  impossible to obtain Australian bulletins and for comparison purposes.
  References to sustained winds should be understood as being based on a
  10-min averaging period unless otherwise noted.



                       Northeast Australia/Coral Sea
                       Tropical Activity for December
                       ------------------------------

     No tropical cyclones formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria or Coral Sea
  during December; however, a tropical LOW formed on the 4th very near
  the tip of the Cape York peninsula and moved southwestward across
  the Gulf, making landfall around 0130 UTC on the 6th about 90 nm south-
  west of Alyangula or about 75 nm west-northwest of Port McArthur.
  The Brisbane TCWC issued three advices on the LOW before passing
  warning responsibility to Darwin.  It was initially felt that the LOW
  might develop into a tropical cyclone, but by the time Darwin had
  assumed responsibility for issuing advices, the system had not gotten
  any better organized and was rapidly approaching the coastline in the
  southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria region.   One factor which probably
  worked against this LOW's developing into a cyclone was its somewhat
  rapid rate of movement:  for most of its life it moved southwestward
  across the Gulf at speeds of around 16 to 19 kts--rather fast for that
  part of the world--which likely made it more difficult for the system
  to consolidate its convection, and if nothing else, significantly
  decreased the time spent over the warm waters of the Gulf before making
  landfall.

  ***********************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for December:  2 tropical depressions

  NOTE:  Most of the information presented below was taken from the
  operational warnings and advisories issued by the Fiji TCWC at Nadi.
  References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.


              South Pacific Tropical Activity for December
              --------------------------------------------

     There were no tropical cyclones in the South Pacific basin during
  December, but the Nadi TCWC did issue gale warnings on two tropical
  depressions during the month.   TD-01F formed about 200 nm west of
  Fiji on 11 December and moved eastward toward the islands.  Apparently
  no gales actually occurred during this phase of the system's life and
  advisories were discontinued at 12/2100 UTC as the system was moving
  southeastward into an area of increased shear and cooler SSTs.  Gale
  warnings, however, were re-initiated at 14/0000 UTC.  The depression
  by this time had moved rapidly eastward and was located about 300 nm
  east-southeast of the Kingdom of Tonga.  Some gales were occurring over
  an extensive area along the southern periphery of the system, but it
  seems likely that the depression was not fully tropical during its
  latter warning phase.  The system remained quasi-stationary in the area
  until the final gale warning was issued at 15/1200 UTC.

     A report from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
  Affairs stated that a tropical depression (which undoubtedly must have
  been TD-01F) crossed Fiji and brought gusty winds, thunderstorms and
  bands of continuous rainfall.  Rivers reportedly burst their banks,
  flooding low-lying areas.  Two persons drowned and two others were
  reported missing at sea.  Roads and bridges were submerged in some
  areas and power outages were reported.   Minor landslides occurred and
  damage was reported to root crops and other vegetables.

     Another tropical depression (likely more of a hybrid) formed far to
  the southeast of Tahiti (about 375 nm west-northwest of Pitcairn) on
  18 December.  This system was accompanied by some peripheral gales well
  north and east of the center.  The system moved fairly quickly eastward
  and the final warning, issued at 19/1200 UTC, placed the center about
  275 nm east of Pitcairn Island.

  ***********************************************************************

                              EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  ***********************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  in the following manner:

       (a) FTP to:  hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.176.206]
       (b) Login as: anonymous
       (c) For a password use your e-mail address
       (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data)
       (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii)
       (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name )
           (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using
           December as an example:   dec00.tracks)
       (g) To exit FTP, type: quit

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries,
  they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD.  The
  summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature:  dec00.sum, for
  example.

    Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Tom Berg, Michael
  Pitt, and Rich Henning):

    <http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    <http://www.typhoon2000.com> OR <http://www.geocities.com/taifun00/>
    <http://www.hurricanealley.net/>
    <http://www.qisfl.net/home/hurricanemike>
    <http://www.met.fsu.edu/gsc/Docs/Grads/henning/cyclones/>

     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:

    <http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>


                   TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     I have discovered that JTWC now has available on its website the
  complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 1999 (1998-1999
  season for the Southern Hemisphere).  Also, ATCRs for earlier years
  are available also.

     The URL is:  <http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2000 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 2000
  Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available.

     The URL is:  <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>

  Prepared by: Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  garyp at alaweb.com
  Phone:  334-222-5327 (nights & weekends) / 850-882-2594 (weekdays)

  ***********************************************************************
  ***********************************************************************


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: snow records
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 16:59:58 +1000
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Hi Patrick, Phillip and Duncan

An excellent link there Patrick. Thanks for that. I'd be interested to hear
more about the July 1986 fall in Sydney where apparently light, melting snow
fell. I was in Darwin at that time. There was some mention of this fall on
the list before, I think.

It's interesting to read of the big fall up here on 5th July 1900 as the
depth of snow corresponds to my records of that event (not that I was here
then!) although there does seem to be some different records floating about
of that fall. During the 1995 season up here, there was also a good fall in
November which is recorded in various "Waratah in Snow" shots from local
photographer, John Martin.

Nice to see some of the falls in the fairly  recent past too. It gives us
snow/winter folk some hope for a nice dump again. Spare a thought for us
"snowies", there may not be much snow left at all in a few decades time,
outside of the ski-fields, so
we have to hold onto each flake. Might have to retire to Thredbo in 2030,
just after the "Thredbo-Blockade" of 2028 when snow chasers took over the
town :) Some old bearded Blackheath guy apparently started the blockade by
burning an old bomb Hyundai Excel.

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: writer at lisp.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 1:34 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide snow [was:Weather in Alice Springs]


> Hi Phil and Duncan,
>
> The BoM has an interesting page on low level snow-falls
> this century at:
>
> http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/c20thc/temp4.shtml
>
> The following extract from the above site deals with the
> 1951 event and provides some dates (to assist anyone
> searching newspaper records).
>
> "In winter 1951 snow blanketed most of Tasmania twice within three weeks
> (19-20 July and 9 August), blocking roads and interrupting mail services.
On
> 9 August snow had to be shovelled from the streets of Queenstown
(elevation
> 191 metres). Light snow also fell in the streets and suburbs of Melbourne,
> and in Adelaide as well during the July event."
>
> Patrick
>
Snip...

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at australia.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ANZ ad
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 17:10:08 +1000
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<x-html>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It was also in the Herald Sun a fw days ago as well Mark. 
Quite amusing. Be a great situation if it happened like that. Talk about chaser 
convergance.........lol</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>PaulY</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Paul Yole<BR>State Rep - ASWA Vic<BR>Comms Officer - Murtoa 
CFA<BR>(041) 836 9256<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=mhardy at theweather.com.au href="mailto:mhardy at theweather.com.au">Mark 
  Hardy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-wx</A> ; <A 
  title=aussie-weather at theweather.com.au 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at theweather.com.au">wz list</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, March 29, 2001 3:39 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: ANZ ad</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>Anybody see the ANZ add in today's SMH? An awesome satpic 
  showing a cat 4-5<BR>TC over every capital city. Canberra somehow missed out. 
  Hilarious.<BR>-- 
  <BR>_____________________________________________________<BR>Mark 
  Hardy.<BR>The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.<BR>Level 2, 7 West Street, North 
  Sydney 2060<BR>Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.<BR>Mobile 0414 642 
  739<BR><A 
  href="http://www.theweather.com.au">http://www.theweather.com.au</A><BR>_____________________________________________________<BR><BR><BR>&nbsp;+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>&nbsp;To 
  unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail 
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  href="mailto:-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au</A>------------------------------</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 15:43:14 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ANZ ad
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Sounds great! Can somebody scan it?
Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk 
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672



-----Original Message-----
From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
To: aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>, wz list <aussie-
weather at theweather.com.au>
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 15:39:29 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: ANZ ad

> Anybody see the ANZ add in today's SMH? An awesome satpic showing a cat
> 4-5
> TC over every capital city. Canberra somehow missed out. Hilarious.
> -- 
> _____________________________________________________
> Mark Hardy.
> The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
> Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
> Mobile 0414 642 739
> http://www.theweather.com.au
> _____________________________________________________
> 
> 
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> +
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> to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 15:40:03 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow records
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I was in Sydney for the July 1986 event.  It was a very cold day and I 
was at my home at Collaroy Beach.  Suddenly there were large slushy white 
flakes of snow falling but melting instantly as they hit the ground. It 
had been a rainy day so everything was already soaking wet and the ground 
temperature was obviously well above freezing point.
I drove up the hill to a friend's place while it was still snowing and 
they had never seen snow in their lives and were all just about going 
loopy.  I suppose it was falling for at least half an hour, probably much 
longer, maybe an hour or two, but it certainly wasn't all day.

I also have very clear memories of the July 1951 event when I lived at 
Terang in western Victoria.  We built a snowman and I was allowed to stay 
home from school - I can't remember whether school was officially closed 
or not.
It was a very cold night and we arose in the morning to see the whole 
town covered in snow.  It was at least 8 cm deep, probably more, maybe 10 
or 15cm.  We had a wonderful snowball fight and there was still plenty 
left.  The snow covered our back yard for two days.

Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk 
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672



-----Original Message-----
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 16:59:58 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: snow records

> Hi Patrick, Phillip and Duncan
> 
> An excellent link there Patrick. Thanks for that. I'd be interested to
> hear
> more about the July 1986 fall in Sydney where apparently light, melting
> snow
> fell. I was in Darwin at that time. There was some mention of this fall
> on
> the list before, I think.
> 
> It's interesting to read of the big fall up here on 5th July 1900 as
> the
> depth of snow corresponds to my records of that event (not that I was
> here
> then!) although there does seem to be some different records floating
> about
> of that fall. During the 1995 season up here, there was also a good
> fall in
> November which is recorded in various "Waratah in Snow" shots from
> local
> photographer, John Martin.
> 
> Nice to see some of the falls in the fairly  recent past too. It gives
> us
> snow/winter folk some hope for a nice dump again. Spare a thought for
> us
> "snowies", there may not be much snow left at all in a few decades
> time,
> outside of the ski-fields, so
> we have to hold onto each flake. Might have to retire to Thredbo in
> 2030,
> just after the "Thredbo-Blockade" of 2028 when snow chasers took over
> the
> town :) Some old bearded Blackheath guy apparently started the blockade
> by
> burning an old bomb Hyundai Excel.
> 
> Lindsay Pearce
> Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> Email: writer at lisp.com.au
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 1:34 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide snow [was:Weather in Alice Springs]
> 
> 
> > Hi Phil and Duncan,
> >
> > The BoM has an interesting page on low level snow-falls
> > this century at:
> >
> > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/c20thc/temp4.shtml
> >
> > The following extract from the above site deals with the
> > 1951 event and provides some dates (to assist anyone
> > searching newspaper records).
> >
> > "In winter 1951 snow blanketed most of Tasmania twice within three
> weeks
> > (19-20 July and 9 August), blocking roads and interrupting mail
> services.
> On
> > 9 August snow had to be shovelled from the streets of Queenstown
> (elevation
> > 191 metres). Light snow also fell in the streets and suburbs of
> Melbourne,
> > and in Adelaide as well during the July event."
> >
> > Patrick
> >
> Snip...
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> +
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 19:07:07 +1000
From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow records
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

LOL :)

Love yer work Lindsay! I'll be there.

Andrew.

Lindsay Pearce wrote:
> 
> Hi Patrick, Phillip and Duncan
> 
> An excellent link there Patrick. Thanks for that. I'd be interested to hear
> more about the July 1986 fall in Sydney where apparently light, melting snow
> fell. I was in Darwin at that time. There was some mention of this fall on
> the list before, I think.
> 
> It's interesting to read of the big fall up here on 5th July 1900 as the
> depth of snow corresponds to my records of that event (not that I was here
> then!) although there does seem to be some different records floating about
> of that fall. During the 1995 season up here, there was also a good fall in
> November which is recorded in various "Waratah in Snow" shots from local
> photographer, John Martin.
> 
> Nice to see some of the falls in the fairly  recent past too. It gives us
> snow/winter folk some hope for a nice dump again. Spare a thought for us
> "snowies", there may not be much snow left at all in a few decades time,
> outside of the ski-fields, so
> we have to hold onto each flake. Might have to retire to Thredbo in 2030,
> just after the "Thredbo-Blockade" of 2028 when snow chasers took over the
> town :) Some old bearded Blackheath guy apparently started the blockade by
> burning an old bomb Hyundai Excel.
> 
> Lindsay Pearce
> Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> Email: writer at lisp.com.au
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 1:34 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide snow [was:Weather in Alice Springs]
> 
> > Hi Phil and Duncan,
> >
> > The BoM has an interesting page on low level snow-falls
> > this century at:
> >
> > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/c20thc/temp4.shtml
> >
> > The following extract from the above site deals with the
> > 1951 event and provides some dates (to assist anyone
> > searching newspaper records).
> >
> > "In winter 1951 snow blanketed most of Tasmania twice within three weeks
> > (19-20 July and 9 August), blocking roads and interrupting mail services.
> On
> > 9 August snow had to be shovelled from the streets of Queenstown
> (elevation
> > 191 metres). Light snow also fell in the streets and suburbs of Melbourne,
> > and in Adelaide as well during the July event."
> >
> > Patrick
> >
> Snip...
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 

With regard to (and in protest of) the new laws involving forwarding of
messages, this email MAY be forwarded.

Andrew Miskelly
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 20:57:55 +1000
From: Keith Barnett <weather at ozemail.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Yes I saw it. It would be interesting to draw a weather map to match...

Mark Hardy wrote:
> 
> Anybody see the ANZ add in today's SMH? An awesome satpic showing a cat 4-5
> TC over every capital city. Canberra somehow missed out. Hilarious.
> --
> _____________________________________________________
> Mark Hardy.
> The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
> Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
> Mobile 0414 642 739
> http://www.theweather.com.au
> _____________________________________________________
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 20:01:32 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow records
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi Phil,

My recollection of the 1986 event was that it was not rainy but sunny for 
the first half of the day and then during the afternoon a cold blasting S 
change hit. This has been talked about on the list... It followed a warm 
period 3 days earlier in the mid 20's if I recall correctly.

I recall two days in a row in July 1984 where it was raining all day with 
very cold conditions and widespread snowfalls in the eastern states... Now 
some say that occasional snow fell in some suburbs in Sydney although it 
was mostly persistent light rain.

Jimmy Deguara

At 03:40 PM 29/03/01 +0800, you wrote:
>I was in Sydney for the July 1986 event.  It was a very cold day and I
>was at my home at Collaroy Beach.  Suddenly there were large slushy white
>flakes of snow falling but melting instantly as they hit the ground. It
>had been a rainy day so everything was already soaking wet and the ground
>temperature was obviously well above freezing point.
>I drove up the hill to a friend's place while it was still snowing and
>they had never seen snow in their lives and were all just about going
>loopy.  I suppose it was falling for at least half an hour, probably much
>longer, maybe an hour or two, but it certainly wasn't all day.
>
>I also have very clear memories of the July 1951 event when I lived at
>Terang in western Victoria.  We built a snowman and I was allowed to stay
>home from school - I can't remember whether school was officially closed
>or not.
>It was a very cold night and we arose in the morning to see the whole
>town covered in snow.  It was at least 8 cm deep, probably more, maybe 10
>or 15cm.  We had a wonderful snowball fight and there was still plenty
>left.  The snow covered our back yard for two days.
>
>Phil
><><
>International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
>Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
>Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 16:59:58 +1000
>Subject: aus-wx: snow records
>
> > Hi Patrick, Phillip and Duncan
> >
> > An excellent link there Patrick. Thanks for that. I'd be interested to
> > hear
> > more about the July 1986 fall in Sydney where apparently light, melting
> > snow
> > fell. I was in Darwin at that time. There was some mention of this fall
> > on
> > the list before, I think.
> >
> > It's interesting to read of the big fall up here on 5th July 1900 as
> > the
> > depth of snow corresponds to my records of that event (not that I was
> > here
> > then!) although there does seem to be some different records floating
> > about
> > of that fall. During the 1995 season up here, there was also a good
> > fall in
> > November which is recorded in various "Waratah in Snow" shots from
> > local
> > photographer, John Martin.
> >
> > Nice to see some of the falls in the fairly  recent past too. It gives
> > us
> > snow/winter folk some hope for a nice dump again. Spare a thought for
> > us
> > "snowies", there may not be much snow left at all in a few decades
> > time,
> > outside of the ski-fields, so
> > we have to hold onto each flake. Might have to retire to Thredbo in
> > 2030,
> > just after the "Thredbo-Blockade" of 2028 when snow chasers took over
> > the
> > town :) Some old bearded Blackheath guy apparently started the blockade
> > by
> > burning an old bomb Hyundai Excel.
> >
> > Lindsay Pearce
> > Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> > Email: writer at lisp.com.au
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 1:34 AM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide snow [was:Weather in Alice Springs]
> >
> >
> > > Hi Phil and Duncan,
> > >
> > > The BoM has an interesting page on low level snow-falls
> > > this century at:
> > >
> > > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/c20thc/temp4.shtml
> > >
> > > The following extract from the above site deals with the
> > > 1951 event and provides some dates (to assist anyone
> > > searching newspaper records).
> > >
> > > "In winter 1951 snow blanketed most of Tasmania twice within three
> > weeks
> > > (19-20 July and 9 August), blocking roads and interrupting mail
> > services.
> > On
> > > 9 August snow had to be shovelled from the streets of Queenstown
> > (elevation
> > > 191 metres). Light snow also fell in the streets and suburbs of
> > Melbourne,
> > > and in Adelaide as well during the July event."
> > >
> > > Patrick
> > >
> > Snip...
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > +
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ANZ ad
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 21:41:33 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

The ad  is viewable at:

http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/temp/anzad.jpg

Its 100k in size so be a little patient

Enjoy!!

dann
__________________________
Daniel Weatherhead
Blaxland, NSW
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
www.sydneystormchasers.com


----- Original Message -----
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 5:43 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ANZ ad


> Sounds great! Can somebody scan it?
> Phil
> <><
> International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
> Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
> To: aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>, wz list <aussie-
> weather at theweather.com.au>
> Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 15:39:29 +1000
> Subject: aus-wx: ANZ ad
>
> > Anybody see the ANZ add in today's SMH? An awesome satpic showing a cat
> > 4-5
> > TC over every capital city. Canberra somehow missed out. Hilarious.
> > --
> > _____________________________________________________
> > Mark Hardy.
> > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> > Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
> > Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
> > Mobile 0414 642 739
> > http://www.theweather.com.au
> > _____________________________________________________
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > +
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon)
Date: 29 Mar 01 21:26:55 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Sporadic E Wx query.
Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway 
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Hello All!

I have asked previously about unusual weather conditions and sporadic E radio
propagation, this email is to collect another piece of data.

Tonight (9PM Thursday 29/3), there was a significant sporadic E opening between
Victoria, QLD and NSW.  It is interesting to note that we are on the leading
edge of a possible geomagnetic storm (courtesy spaceweather.com).  However, I
would like to know if there were any unusual weather conditions over NSW that
may have had something to do with this phenomenon.

Anyone hear of or witness any unusual weather conditions in NSW today or this
evening?

Any information (including in the negative) would be appreciated.

Tony, VK3JED

.. ___________
--
|Fidonet:  Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
|
| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 22:14:49 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ANZ ad
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
I like it...

Great way to educate the public about tropical cyclones.... and hey global 
warming.

Jimmy Deguara

At 09:41 PM 29/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
>The ad  is viewable at:
>
>http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/temp/anzad.jpg
>
>Its 100k in size so be a little patient
>
>Enjoy!!
>
>dann
>__________________________
>Daniel Weatherhead
>Blaxland, NSW
>weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
>SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
>www.sydneystormchasers.com
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 5:43 PM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: ANZ ad
>
>
> > Sounds great! Can somebody scan it?
> > Phil
> > <><
> > International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
> > Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> > Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
> >
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
> > To: aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>, wz list <aussie-
> > weather at theweather.com.au>
> > Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 15:39:29 +1000
> > Subject: aus-wx: ANZ ad
> >
> > > Anybody see the ANZ add in today's SMH? An awesome satpic showing a cat
> > > 4-5
> > > TC over every capital city. Canberra somehow missed out. Hilarious.
> > > --
> > > _____________________________________________________
> > > Mark Hardy.
> > > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> > > Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
> > > Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
> > > Mobile 0414 642 739
> > > http://www.theweather.com.au
> > > _____________________________________________________
> > >
> > >
> > >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > > +
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > > your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > > -
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 10:15:25 +1000
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow records
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Phil...
Jimmy is right. The 25 July 1986 was dry and sunny. A cold SW/S change
moved throu mid afternoon with a clearly defined cloud band. Sydney's
max had been 15 at 9 am and it was cool to cold with WSW winds during
the day. At 3 pm Sydney's temp was 12 but Liverpool's had dropped to 6
degrees. The change moves through the city around 3-3.3- and by 4 pm it
was 7 degrees. Along with a similar temp on 21 August 1962, it was the
lowest mid afternoon temp I can recall in Sydney. The band was not very
wide and by 4.15 the sun was shining again. The temp stayed down around
7 until 8 pm. There were no big slushy flakes - just small snow pellets
- the Yanks refer to it as graupel. Main reason was the air mass was
incredibly dry. At 3 pm, Thredbo was -10 degrees - I believe the lwoest
ever at that time of day in Australia. Mt Victoria then a climate
station), Oberon, Orange and Bombala were all -1 and Bowral 0. Gabo
Island was zero as well - a remarkable 3pm temp at sea level while
Canberra was 5 with a dew point of -13. Sydney's min temp the folowing
morning was 3.1 degrees and from memory, it has not been down that low
since. The Bureau's MWR for that month noted that snow flakes had been
reported in Sydney in 1836, 1879, 1896, 1899, 1902, 1905, 1919,
1929,1937, 1948, 1951, 1961, 1962, 1965 and 1982. All in all a
significant event, devoid of available moisture which might have given a
different outcome but let's keep it is perspective  - after all, there
are more myths and exaggerations about snow than any other weather
phenomena.
(around 2 weeks later, Sydney had 327 mm in 24 hours - its wettest day
ever!) 
Don White

Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> 
> Hi Phil,
> 
> My recollection of the 1986 event was that it was not rainy but sunny for
> the first half of the day and then during the afternoon a cold blasting S
> change hit. This has been talked about on the list... It followed a warm
> period 3 days earlier in the mid 20's if I recall correctly.
> 
> I recall two days in a row in July 1984 where it was raining all day with
> very cold conditions and widespread snowfalls in the eastern states... Now
> some say that occasional snow fell in some suburbs in Sydney although it
> was mostly persistent light rain.
> 
> Jimmy Deguara
> 
> At 03:40 PM 29/03/01 +0800, you wrote:
> >I was in Sydney for the July 1986 event.  It was a very cold day and I
> >was at my home at Collaroy Beach.  Suddenly there were large slushy white
> >flakes of snow falling but melting instantly as they hit the ground. It
> >had been a rainy day so everything was already soaking wet and the ground
> >temperature was obviously well above freezing point.
> >I drove up the hill to a friend's place while it was still snowing and
> >they had never seen snow in their lives and were all just about going
> >loopy.  I suppose it was falling for at least half an hour, probably much
> >longer, maybe an hour or two, but it certainly wasn't all day.
> >
> >I also have very clear memories of the July 1951 event when I lived at
> >Terang in western Victoria.  We built a snowman and I was allowed to stay
> >home from school - I can't remember whether school was officially closed
> >or not.
> >It was a very cold night and we arose in the morning to see the whole
> >town covered in snow.  It was at least 8 cm deep, probably more, maybe 10
> >or 15cm.  We had a wonderful snowball fight and there was still plenty
> >left.  The snow covered our back yard for two days.
> >
> >Phil
> ><><
> >International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
> >Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> >Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
> >
> >
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 16:59:58 +1000
> >Subject: aus-wx: snow records
> >
> > > Hi Patrick, Phillip and Duncan
> > >
> > > An excellent link there Patrick. Thanks for that. I'd be interested to
> > > hear
> > > more about the July 1986 fall in Sydney where apparently light, melting
> > > snow
> > > fell. I was in Darwin at that time. There was some mention of this fall
> > > on
> > > the list before, I think.
> > >
> > > It's interesting to read of the big fall up here on 5th July 1900 as
> > > the
> > > depth of snow corresponds to my records of that event (not that I was
> > > here
> > > then!) although there does seem to be some different records floating
> > > about
> > > of that fall. During the 1995 season up here, there was also a good
> > > fall in
> > > November which is recorded in various "Waratah in Snow" shots from
> > > local
> > > photographer, John Martin.
> > >
> > > Nice to see some of the falls in the fairly  recent past too. It gives
> > > us
> > > snow/winter folk some hope for a nice dump again. Spare a thought for
> > > us
> > > "snowies", there may not be much snow left at all in a few decades
> > > time,
> > > outside of the ski-fields, so
> > > we have to hold onto each flake. Might have to retire to Thredbo in
> > > 2030,
> > > just after the "Thredbo-Blockade" of 2028 when snow chasers took over
> > > the
> > > town :) Some old bearded Blackheath guy apparently started the blockade
> > > by
> > > burning an old bomb Hyundai Excel.
> > >
> > > Lindsay Pearce
> > > Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> > > Email: writer at lisp.com.au
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 1:34 AM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide snow [was:Weather in Alice Springs]
> > >
> > >
> > > > Hi Phil and Duncan,
> > > >
> > > > The BoM has an interesting page on low level snow-falls
> > > > this century at:
> > > >
> > > > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/c20thc/temp4.shtml
> > > >
> > > > The following extract from the above site deals with the
> > > > 1951 event and provides some dates (to assist anyone
> > > > searching newspaper records).
> > > >
> > > > "In winter 1951 snow blanketed most of Tasmania twice within three
> > > weeks
> > > > (19-20 July and 9 August), blocking roads and interrupting mail
> > > services.
> > > On
> > > > 9 August snow had to be shovelled from the streets of Queenstown
> > > (elevation
> > > > 191 metres). Light snow also fell in the streets and suburbs of
> > > Melbourne,
> > > > and in Adelaide as well during the July event."
> > > >
> > > > Patrick
> > > >
> > > Snip...
> > >
> > >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > > +
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > > your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > > -
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> 
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
> 
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> 
> Web Page with Michael Bath
> 
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> 
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 20:41:31 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow records
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Actually it may be the 1984 one that I remembered.  I lived at Collaroy 
then and if it were the 1986 one I would have lived at Oxford Falls and 
have been visiting Collaroy.  I just remember driving up the hill from 
the beach.

Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk 
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672



-----Original Message-----
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 20:01:32 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow records

> Hi Phil,
> 
> My recollection of the 1986 event was that it was not rainy but sunny
> for 
> the first half of the day and then during the afternoon a cold blasting
> S 
> change hit. This has been talked about on the list... It followed a
> warm 
> period 3 days earlier in the mid 20's if I recall correctly.
> 
> I recall two days in a row in July 1984 where it was raining all day
> with 
> very cold conditions and widespread snowfalls in the eastern states...
> Now 
> some say that occasional snow fell in some suburbs in Sydney although
> it 
> was mostly persistent light rain.
> 
> Jimmy Deguara
> 
> At 03:40 PM 29/03/01 +0800, you wrote:
> >I was in Sydney for the July 1986 event.  It was a very cold day and I
> >was at my home at Collaroy Beach.  Suddenly there were large slushy
> white
> >flakes of snow falling but melting instantly as they hit the ground.
> It
> >had been a rainy day so everything was already soaking wet and the
> ground
> >temperature was obviously well above freezing point.
> >I drove up the hill to a friend's place while it was still snowing and
> >they had never seen snow in their lives and were all just about going
> >loopy.  I suppose it was falling for at least half an hour, probably
> much
> >longer, maybe an hour or two, but it certainly wasn't all day.
> >
> >I also have very clear memories of the July 1951 event when I lived at
> >Terang in western Victoria.  We built a snowman and I was allowed to
> stay
> >home from school - I can't remember whether school was officially
> closed
> >or not.
> >It was a very cold night and we arose in the morning to see the whole
> >town covered in snow.  It was at least 8 cm deep, probably more, maybe
> 10
> >or 15cm.  We had a wonderful snowball fight and there was still plenty
> >left.  The snow covered our back yard for two days.
> >
> >Phil
> ><><
> >International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
> >Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> >Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
> >
> >
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: "Lindsay Pearce" <writer at lisp.com.au>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 16:59:58 +1000
> >Subject: aus-wx: snow records
> >
> > > Hi Patrick, Phillip and Duncan
> > >
> > > An excellent link there Patrick. Thanks for that. I'd be interested
> to
> > > hear
> > > more about the July 1986 fall in Sydney where apparently light,
> melting
> > > snow
> > > fell. I was in Darwin at that time. There was some mention of this
> fall
> > > on
> > > the list before, I think.
> > >
> > > It's interesting to read of the big fall up here on 5th July 1900
> as
> > > the
> > > depth of snow corresponds to my records of that event (not that I
> was
> > > here
> > > then!) although there does seem to be some different records
> floating
> > > about
> > > of that fall. During the 1995 season up here, there was also a good
> > > fall in
> > > November which is recorded in various "Waratah in Snow" shots from
> > > local
> > > photographer, John Martin.
> > >
> > > Nice to see some of the falls in the fairly  recent past too. It
> gives
> > > us
> > > snow/winter folk some hope for a nice dump again. Spare a thought
> for
> > > us
> > > "snowies", there may not be much snow left at all in a few decades
> > > time,
> > > outside of the ski-fields, so
> > > we have to hold onto each flake. Might have to retire to Thredbo in
> > > 2030,
> > > just after the "Thredbo-Blockade" of 2028 when snow chasers took
> over
> > > the
> > > town :) Some old bearded Blackheath guy apparently started the
> blockade
> > > by
> > > burning an old bomb Hyundai Excel.
> > >
> > > Lindsay Pearce
> > > Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
> > > Email: writer at lisp.com.au
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 1:34 AM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide snow [was:Weather in Alice Springs]
> > >
> > >
> > > > Hi Phil and Duncan,
> > > >
> > > > The BoM has an interesting page on low level snow-falls
> > > > this century at:
> > > >
> > > > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/c20thc/temp4.shtml
> > > >
> > > > The following extract from the above site deals with the
> > > > 1951 event and provides some dates (to assist anyone
> > > > searching newspaper records).
> > > >
> > > > "In winter 1951 snow blanketed most of Tasmania twice within
> three
> > > weeks
> > > > (19-20 July and 9 August), blocking roads and interrupting mail
> > > services.
> > > On
> > > > 9 August snow had to be shovelled from the streets of Queenstown
> > > (elevation
> > > > 191 metres). Light snow also fell in the streets and suburbs of
> > > Melbourne,
> > > > and in Adelaide as well during the July event."
> > > >
> > > > Patrick
> > > >
> > > Snip...
> > >
> > > 
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > > +
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body
> of
> > > your
> > >  message.
> > > 
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > > -
> >
> >
> > 
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> >  message.
> > 
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> 
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
> 
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> 
> Web Page with Michael Bath
> 
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> 
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> +
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ANZ ad
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 11:33:43 -0700
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

haha, warming so significant that the baroclinic zone centers itself more
than 50S :) Hey, atleast they didn't put one over Canberra - that would be
significantly uneducating consdiering no moiture source.

I noted that Adelaide appears to only have a week storm - their financial
markets uneffected or just so weak that anything will keel them over?

Cheers, Lyle

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jimmy Deguara" <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 5:14 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ANZ ad


> I like it...
>
> Great way to educate the public about tropical cyclones.... and hey global
> warming.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 09:41 PM 29/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
> >The ad  is viewable at:
> >
> >http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/temp/anzad.jpg
> >
> >Its 100k in size so be a little patient
> >
> >Enjoy!!
> >
> >dann
> >__________________________
> >Daniel Weatherhead
> >Blaxland, NSW
> >weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
> >SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
> >www.sydneystormchasers.com
> >
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 5:43 PM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: ANZ ad
> >
> >
> > > Sounds great! Can somebody scan it?
> > > Phil
> > > <><
> > > International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
> > > Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> > > Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
> > > To: aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>, wz list <aussie-
> > > weather at theweather.com.au>
> > > Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 15:39:29 +1000
> > > Subject: aus-wx: ANZ ad
> > >
> > > > Anybody see the ANZ add in today's SMH? An awesome satpic showing a
cat
> > > > 4-5
> > > > TC over every capital city. Canberra somehow missed out. Hilarious.
> > > > --
> > > > _____________________________________________________
> > > > Mark Hardy.
> > > > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> > > > Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
> > > > Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
> > > > Mobile 0414 642 739
> > > > http://www.theweather.com.au
> > > > _____________________________________________________
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > > > +
> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > > > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > > > -
> > >
> > >
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storm News
Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 20:39:57 +0100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Everyone,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Being one of the ASWA International contingent I 
awaited eagerly my instance of Storm News. Having got it today I wasn't 
disappointed - have just finished reading it now.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Nicley put together newsletter.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Les(UK)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Les Crossan &amp; Christine Challen,<BR>UK Storm 
Chasers,<BR>Wallsend, Tyne &amp; Wear 54-59.5N 01-30W<BR><A 
href="http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk">www.uksevereweather.org.uk</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Wallsend StormCam: <A 
href="http://www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm">www.cc0020209.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/wallsendstormcam.htm</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WA cold
Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 02:17:51 GMT
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Perth Airport's min was 4.7, comfortably below their previous March
record of 5.5 in 57 years of observation. Perth city (Mt Lawley)
"only" got down to 7.6. The lowest March figure at the old Regional
Office site between 1876 and 1992 was 7.8, but the new site has been
noted on the list as being colder than the old one.

Laurier


On Tue, 27 Mar 2001 19:36:17 +1000, Don White
<donwhite at ozemail.com.au> wrote:

>Perth's report of 4.6 indicated new March record.
>Don W
>
>Laurier Williams wrote:
>> 
>> I haven't seen any mention of the widespread cold nights in WA on the
>> 24th and 25th. By my reckoning, a whole clutch of March minimum temp
>> records fell, some fairly long-standing ones by as much as 1.5
>> degrees. A couple of centres in the SE of the state broke their
>> previous records on two consecutive nights! I've put the details on
>> the relevant date's news pages.
>> 
>> It says something for the strength of the cold surge that records were
>> set as far north as Marble Bar, and many occurred despite windspeed
>> keeping around 10 to 15km/h through the nights.
>> 
>>  Any comments, Blair?
>> 
>> --
>> Laurier Williams
>> Australian Weather News & Links
>> http://www.australianweathernews.com
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>>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>>  message.
>>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 14:58:03 +1000 (EST)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Suction vortices/spots
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi David/all

Suctions spots/vortices are essentially smaller tornadoes associated with
a larger tornado, and they typically appear around the periphery of the
main tornado.  At these points it is believed the strongest winds, and
thus most damage, occurs.

In brief terms, suction vortices arise through instabilities set up on the
boundary between downdrafts within the tornado vortex, and the updrafts on
the outside.  See diagram (c) and (d) in

http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/tornado.html

for what this boundary looks like.  Part (d) is just where this downflow
reaches the ground, which would lead to these suction vortices also
reaching the ground.  This is shown in Part (e). 

This configuration creates a relatively clear region in the centre with
the vortices around the periphery.  In the example mentioned on the
webpage (http://chaseday.com/tornado-shamrock77.htm), there is no obvious
clear region probably due to the fact that the overall central pressure of
the whole tornado is low enough to permit condensation to occur.


This may lead to the question as to how does this central downdraft occur.

First, some basics.
In a tornado (tornado here including the broad-scale flow around, not just
the part visible due to condensation) there is convergence of the winds at
the surface and divergence aloft.  You could sort of imagine it as
hourglass in shape.  See the bottom diagram in my URL.

Inflow takes place near the surface due to the lower central pressure
along the axis of rotation.  As a parcel of air gets closer to the central
axis, using conservation of angular momentum, it will increase its
tangential speed (ie rotate faster).  This rotating parcel will then feel
a centrifugal force outward.  This parcel will reach some distance from
the axis where the inward pressure force is balanced by the outward
centrifugal force.  At this point, the parcel will not move in, nor will
it move out, and will continue to spiral upwards.

One thing to add to this is that near the surface, frictional affects
cause the pressure force to dominate, and so the parcel spirals in near
the centre.  At upper levels, the pressure force weakens and so the
centrifugal force dominates, and the parcel spirals outward.  This
explains the hourglass shape.

In this shape, there is a relative high pressure near the surface and
another above (see diagram, marked with 'H').  In the centre of the
vortex, the pressure is relatively low 'L'.  This is caused by normal
Venturi effects (low wind speed = higher pressure and vice versa).  Since
air flows from high to low pressures, there will be a tendency for air to
descend from the top to the centre, and to rise from the ground to the
centre.  However, only when the swirl ratio (tangential speed / updraft
speed) is high enough will these two flow join up in the centre (see part
(d), and part (c) which doesn't show the ground effect), to form a
complete updraft/downdraft boundary that reaches the ground.  Diagrams
(a), (b), ....(d) show the affect that increasing swirl ratio has on the
tornado vortex.

This boundary then permits wave instabilities to propagate in the from of
these suction vortices.  Video footage shown in a Vic ASWA meeting of one
of the _many_ funnels seen in Geelong last year shows quite clearly these
multiple vortices, which would be explained by figure similar to (c).


Hope this helps.


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--







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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: New Photos
Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 15:32:01 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all

I have updated the new photos page of BSCH

http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/new.shtml

This update includes stills from video footage of the damaged caused by an
F2 tornado at Silvery Valley in northern QLD (SW of Cairns) late October
last year.  Some of the best are :

http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/subs/291000_08.shtml

and this one showing the tornado path (you can see untouched trees on the
right hand side while others have been completely stripped)

http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/subs/291000_22.shtml

There are also photos of flooding in the upper reaches of the Brisbane River
and the flood gates of the Wivenhoe Dam in February 1999

http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/john/xx0299_04.shtml






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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 17:59:34 +1000
From: Keith Barnett <weather at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ANZ ad
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Interesting you say that Jimmy, because I thought that when I saw the
ad, a situation like that with deep depressions, probably sub-tropical
in nature, all over the place, could well be generated by a warmer
climate.
In fact I remember in June 1963 the pattern wasn't too far removed, with
deep depressions tracking east across the mainland, and especially
affecting NSW, while there were highs to the south, totally cutting off
the winter westerlies...

Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> 
> I like it...
> 
> Great way to educate the public about tropical cyclones.... and hey global
> warming.
> 
> Jimmy Deguara
> 
> At 09:41 PM 29/03/01 +1000, you wrote:
> >The ad  is viewable at:
> >
> >http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/temp/anzad.jpg
> >
> >Its 100k in size so be a little patient
> >
> >Enjoy!!
> >
> >dann
> >__________________________
> >Daniel Weatherhead
> >Blaxland, NSW
> >weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
> >SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
> >www.sydneystormchasers.com
> >
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 5:43 PM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: ANZ ad
> >
> >
> > > Sounds great! Can somebody scan it?
> > > Phil
> > > <><
> > > International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
> > > Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> > > Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Mark Hardy <mhardy at theweather.com.au>
> > > To: aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>, wz list <aussie-
> > > weather at theweather.com.au>
> > > Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 15:39:29 +1000
> > > Subject: aus-wx: ANZ ad
> > >
> > > > Anybody see the ANZ add in today's SMH? An awesome satpic showing a cat
> > > > 4-5
> > > > TC over every capital city. Canberra somehow missed out. Hilarious.
> > > > --
> > > > _____________________________________________________
> > > > Mark Hardy.
> > > > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> > > > Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
> > > > Ph (02) 8912 6222. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
> > > > Mobile 0414 642 739
> > > > http://www.theweather.com.au
> > > > _____________________________________________________
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > > > +
> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > > > your
> > > >  message.
> > > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > > > -
> > >
> > >
> > >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> 
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
> 
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> 
> Web Page with Michael Bath
> 
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> 
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Suction vortices/spots
Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 20:48:23 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Robert,

This is an excellent explanation and easy to follow too.  Thank-you very
much for this.  I urge everyone to read Robert's explanation as it is one of
the best i've read.

Regards

Macca

----- Original Message -----
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 30, 2001 2:58 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Suction vortices/spots


>
> Hi David/all
>
> Suctions spots/vortices are essentially smaller tornadoes associated with
> a larger tornado, and they typically appear around the periphery of the
> main tornado.  At these points it is believed the strongest winds, and
> thus most damage, occurs.
>
> In brief terms, suction vortices arise through instabilities set up on the
> boundary between downdrafts within the tornado vortex, and the updrafts on
> the outside.  See diagram (c) and (d) in
>
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/tornado.html
>
> for what this boundary looks like.  Part (d) is just where this downflow
> reaches the ground, which would lead to these suction vortices also
> reaching the ground.  This is shown in Part (e).
>
> This configuration creates a relatively clear region in the centre with
> the vortices around the periphery.  In the example mentioned on the
> webpage (http://chaseday.com/tornado-shamrock77.htm), there is no obvious
> clear region probably due to the fact that the overall central pressure of
> the whole tornado is low enough to permit condensation to occur.
>
>
> This may lead to the question as to how does this central downdraft occur.
>
> First, some basics.
> In a tornado (tornado here including the broad-scale flow around, not just
> the part visible due to condensation) there is convergence of the winds at
> the surface and divergence aloft.  You could sort of imagine it as
> hourglass in shape.  See the bottom diagram in my URL.
>
> Inflow takes place near the surface due to the lower central pressure
> along the axis of rotation.  As a parcel of air gets closer to the central
> axis, using conservation of angular momentum, it will increase its
> tangential speed (ie rotate faster).  This rotating parcel will then feel
> a centrifugal force outward.  This parcel will reach some distance from
> the axis where the inward pressure force is balanced by the outward
> centrifugal force.  At this point, the parcel will not move in, nor will
> it move out, and will continue to spiral upwards.
>
> One thing to add to this is that near the surface, frictional affects
> cause the pressure force to dominate, and so the parcel spirals in near
> the centre.  At upper levels, the pressure force weakens and so the
> centrifugal force dominates, and the parcel spirals outward.  This
> explains the hourglass shape.
>
> In this shape, there is a relative high pressure near the surface and
> another above (see diagram, marked with 'H').  In the centre of the
> vortex, the pressure is relatively low 'L'.  This is caused by normal
> Venturi effects (low wind speed = higher pressure and vice versa).  Since
> air flows from high to low pressures, there will be a tendency for air to
> descend from the top to the centre, and to rise from the ground to the
> centre.  However, only when the swirl ratio (tangential speed / updraft
> speed) is high enough will these two flow join up in the centre (see part
> (d), and part (c) which doesn't show the ground effect), to form a
> complete updraft/downdraft boundary that reaches the ground.  Diagrams
> (a), (b), ....(d) show the affect that increasing swirl ratio has on the
> tornado vortex.
>
> This boundary then permits wave instabilities to propagate in the from of
> these suction vortices.  Video footage shown in a Vic ASWA meeting of one
> of the _many_ funnels seen in Geelong last year shows quite clearly these
> multiple vortices, which would be explained by figure similar to (c).
>
>
> Hope this helps.
>
>
> Cheers
>
> --
>
> Robert A. Goler
>
> E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
> Department of Mathematics and Statistics
> Monash University
> Clayton, Vic 3800
> Australia
>
> --
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 21:04:26 +1000
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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Subject: aus-wx: Interesting cloud patch
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Evening all,

Interesting patch of cloud with a 'signature' developed over the past 6
hours in western Queensland & is evident on
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/satimages/gmsd.jpg . In approx the same area
at 850hPa there is warm advection from the NW with accompanying tropical
moisture from the Indian Ocean (fits this cloud line), and at 300hPa
there appears to be a 'kink' in the jet (see
http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/init/avn_4panel_init_aus.gif ) - is
this possibly the precursor of a mid - upper level low? There is also a
weak surface trough in the area.  This development is stationary.

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Suction vortices/spots
Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 22:01:29 +1000
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<x-flowed>

Hi Robert (et al),

When you say periphery do you mean internal or external to the main tornado? 
If internal, then I think Fujita strongly suspected just such a mechanism 
back in the early sixties and the Super Outbreak of 1974 showed just such a 
signature with the "slinky" pattern evident in fields (i.e. cup your hand, 
stick your fingertips in ink and rotate them as you move your hand across a 
piece of paper..) Where the traces cross seemed to be areas of maximum 
destruction.

If you mean external to the main tornado, then the Palm Sunday 1965 outbreak 
may be relevant. I've seen a few shots of triple vortices that seem to 
indicate that they may be just the suction vortices that you mention...

My question: Are you talking about separate visible vortices or hidden 
vortices and (question 2 I guess) are clusters of rotating vortices 
considered one tornado or separate?

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.



>From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Re: Suction vortices/spots
>Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 14:58:03 +1000 (EST)
>
>
>Hi David/all
>
>Suctions spots/vortices are essentially smaller tornadoes associated with
>a larger tornado, and they typically appear around the periphery of the
>main tornado.  At these points it is believed the strongest winds, and
>thus most damage, occurs.
>
>In brief terms, suction vortices arise through instabilities set up on the
>boundary between downdrafts within the tornado vortex, and the updrafts on
>the outside.  See diagram (c) and (d) in
>
>http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/tornado.html
>
>for what this boundary looks like.  Part (d) is just where this downflow
>reaches the ground, which would lead to these suction vortices also
>reaching the ground.  This is shown in Part (e).
>
>This configuration creates a relatively clear region in the centre with
>the vortices around the periphery.  In the example mentioned on the
>webpage (http://chaseday.com/tornado-shamrock77.htm), there is no obvious
>clear region probably due to the fact that the overall central pressure of
>the whole tornado is low enough to permit condensation to occur.
>
>
>This may lead to the question as to how does this central downdraft occur.
>
>First, some basics.
>In a tornado (tornado here including the broad-scale flow around, not just
>the part visible due to condensation) there is convergence of the winds at
>the surface and divergence aloft.  You could sort of imagine it as
>hourglass in shape.  See the bottom diagram in my URL.
>
>Inflow takes place near the surface due to the lower central pressure
>along the axis of rotation.  As a parcel of air gets closer to the central
>axis, using conservation of angular momentum, it will increase its
>tangential speed (ie rotate faster).  This rotating parcel will then feel
>a centrifugal force outward.  This parcel will reach some distance from
>the axis where the inward pressure force is balanced by the outward
>centrifugal force.  At this point, the parcel will not move in, nor will
>it move out, and will continue to spiral upwards.
>
>One thing to add to this is that near the surface, frictional affects
>cause the pressure force to dominate, and so the parcel spirals in near
>the centre.  At upper levels, the pressure force weakens and so the
>centrifugal force dominates, and the parcel spirals outward.  This
>explains the hourglass shape.
>
>In this shape, there is a relative high pressure near the surface and
>another above (see diagram, marked with 'H').  In the centre of the
>vortex, the pressure is relatively low 'L'.  This is caused by normal
>Venturi effects (low wind speed = higher pressure and vice versa).  Since
>air flows from high to low pressures, there will be a tendency for air to
>descend from the top to the centre, and to rise from the ground to the
>centre.  However, only when the swirl ratio (tangential speed / updraft
>speed) is high enough will these two flow join up in the centre (see part
>(d), and part (c) which doesn't show the ground effect), to form a
>complete updraft/downdraft boundary that reaches the ground.  Diagrams
>(a), (b), ....(d) show the affect that increasing swirl ratio has on the
>tornado vortex.
>
>This boundary then permits wave instabilities to propagate in the from of
>these suction vortices.  Video footage shown in a Vic ASWA meeting of one
>of the _many_ funnels seen in Geelong last year shows quite clearly these
>multiple vortices, which would be explained by figure similar to (c).
>
>
>Hope this helps.
>
>
>Cheers
>
>--
>
>Robert A. Goler
>
>E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
>http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
>Department of Mathematics and Statistics
>Monash University
>Clayton, Vic 3800
>Australia
>
>--
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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</x-flowed>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sporadic E Wx query.
Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 22:06:25 +1000
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As far as the Illawarra went you could not get any more boring or benign

Michael

>
> Anyone hear of or witness any unusual weather conditions in NSW today or
this
> evening?
>



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow records
Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 22:19:36 +1000
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The event was very similar in the Illawarra too.

I used to keep weather readings at that stage and my max was closer to 17C
earlier in day, but it dropped to around 4C during the rain. This is the
lowest daytime temperature I have ever experienced at my home. No snow or
hail fell at my home, just steady large rain drops.

I several newspaper clippings from that date and according to the articles
snow fell just above the Mt Kembla village at Kembla Heights, which is about
250m in altitude. Snow also fell at the Mount Keira scout camp for 30 mins,
again this is only half way up My Keira at about 250m.

Interesting was a report in the paper describing a Illawarra historical
society photo from 1931 that shows snow on top of Bulli pass, alas the photo
was not printed in the paper.

Michael





> Phil...
> Jimmy is right. The 25 July 1986 was dry and sunny. A cold SW/S change
> moved throu mid afternoon with a clearly defined cloud band. Sydney's
> max had been 15 at 9 am and it was cool to cold with WSW winds during
> the day. At 3 pm Sydney's temp was 12 but Liverpool's had dropped to 6
> degrees. The change moves through the city around 3-3.3- and by 4 pm it
> was 7 degrees. Along with a similar temp on 21 August 1962, it was the
> lowest mid afternoon temp I can recall in Sydney. The band was not very
> wide and by 4.15 the sun was shining again. The temp stayed down around
> 7 until 8 pm. There were no big slushy flakes - just small snow pellets
> - the Yanks refer to it as graupel. Main reason was the air mass was
> incredibly dry. At 3 pm, Thredbo was -10 degrees - I believe the lwoest
> ever at that time of day in Australia. Mt Victoria then a climate
> station), Oberon, Orange and Bombala were all -1 and Bowral 0. Gabo
> Island was zero as well - a remarkable 3pm temp at sea level while
> Canberra was 5 with a dew point of -13. Sydney's min temp the folowing
> morning was 3.1 degrees and from memory, it has not been down that low
> since. The Bureau's MWR for that month noted that snow flakes had been
> reported in Sydney in 1836, 1879, 1896, 1899, 1902, 1905, 1919,
> 1929,1937, 1948, 1951, 1961, 1962, 1965 and 1982. All in all a
> significant event, devoid of available moisture which might have given a
> different outcome but let's keep it is perspective  - after all, there
> are more myths and exaggerations about snow than any other weather
> phenomena.
> (around 2 weeks later, Sydney had 327 mm in 24 hours - its wettest day
> ever!)



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at australia.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sporadic E Wx query.
Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 22:48:54 +1000
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<x-html>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Unless you moved to the Wimmera............or South 
Australia........LOL</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>PaulY</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Paul Yole<BR>State Rep - ASWA Vic<BR>Comms Officer - Murtoa 
CFA<BR>(041) 836 9256<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=michaelt at ozemail.com.au href="mailto:michaelt at ozemail.com.au">Michael 
  Thompson</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, March 30, 2001 10:06 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Sporadic E Wx 
  query.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>As far as the Illawarra went you could not get any more boring 
  or benign<BR><BR>Michael<BR><BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; Anyone hear of or witness any 
  unusual weather conditions in NSW today or<BR>this<BR>&gt; 
  evening?<BR>&gt;<BR><BR><BR><BR>&nbsp;+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>&nbsp;To 
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  href="mailto:-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au</A>------------------------------<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Paul Mirtschin" <paul at nothingdesign.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Sporadic E Wx query.
Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 23:16:13 +1000
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<x-html>
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<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Unless you moved to the Wimmera............or South 
  Australia........LOL</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>PaulY</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=464251413-30032001><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Hey!! 
I grew up in that area!!</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=464251413-30032001><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=464251413-30032001><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>I 
spent my youth waking up in winter to find frozen glasses of water beside the 
bed, and surviving Horsham's Summer of dust storms and 40+ degree 
days...</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<P><FONT size=2>&nbsp; 
--------------------------------------<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Paul Mirtschin - Ph 
0414 658 174&nbsp;<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Nothing Communications &amp; 
Design<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; paul at nothingdesign.com.au<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
www.nothingdesign.com.au<BR><BR>Everybody is somebody else's 
freak</FONT></P></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon)
Date: 30 Mar 01 23:09:23 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sporadic E Wx query.
Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway 
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Hello Michael!

30 Mar 01 22:06, you wrote to All:

 MT> As far as the Illawarra went you could not get any more boring or
 MT> benign

Thanks. :-)  Sounds like Melbourne today, fine, sunny, calm as a mill pond and
warm.

Tony, VK3JED

.. AACK! Not again... It's the thread that will not die!
--
|Fidonet:  Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
|
| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.


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From: "Daniel Lester" <lester_daniel at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow records
Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 23:46:47 +1000
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<x-html>
<html><DIV>
<P>I was only 5 in 1986, however being Tasmanian that event is fairly memorable. I think about 3/4 of the state recorded snow to sea level, Hobart had 8cm and many places recorded the heaviest snowfalls on record. By all accounts it came from "nowhere" in the dead of night. No forecast of it&nbsp;and whats more it was fine when night fell so you can imagine the surprise the following morning. It only lasted the night and cleared up during the day from memory (I may be wrong) but snow was still thick on the ground 3 days later at 350m.<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: Don White <DONWHITE at OZEMAIL.COM.AU>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow records 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 10:15:25 +1000 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Phil... 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Jimmy is right. The 25 July 1986 was dry and sunny. A cold SW/S change 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;moved throu mid afternoon with a clearly defined cloud band. Sydney's 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;max had been 15 at 9 am and it was cool to cold with WSW winds during 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;the day. At 3 pm Sydney's temp was 12 but Liverpool's had dropped to 6 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;degrees. The change moves through the city around 3-3.3- and by 4 pm it 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;was 7 degrees. Along with a similar temp on 21 August 1962, it was the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;lowest mid afternoon temp I can recall in Sydney. The band was not very 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;wide and by 4.15 the sun was shining again. The temp stayed down around 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;7 until 8 pm. There were no big slushy flakes - just small snow pellets 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;- the Yanks refer to it as graupel. Main reason was the air mass was 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;incredibly dry. At 3 pm, Thredbo was -10 degrees - I believe the lwoest 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;ever at that time of day in Australia. Mt Victoria then a climate 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;station), Oberon, Orange and Bombala were all -1 and Bowral 0. Gabo 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Island was zero as well - a remarkable 3pm temp at sea level while 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Canberra was 5 with a dew point of -13. Sydney's min temp the folowing 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;morning was 3.1 degrees and from memory, it has not been down that low 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;since. The Bureau's MWR for that month noted that snow flakes had been 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;reported in Sydney in 1836, 1879, 1896, 1899, 1902, 1905, 1919, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;1929,1937, 1948, 1951, 1961, 1962, 1965 and 1982. All in all a 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;significant event, devoid of available moisture which might have given a 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;different outcome but let's keep it is perspective - after all, there 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;are more myths and exaggerations about snow than any other weather 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;phenomena. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;(around 2 weeks later, Sydney had 327 mm in 24 hours - its wettest day 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;ever!) 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Don White 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Jimmy Deguara wrote: 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Hi Phil, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; My recollection of the 1986 event was that it was not rainy but sunny for 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; the first half of the day and then during the afternoon a cold blasting S 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; change hit. This has been talked about on the list... It followed a warm 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; period 3 days earlier in the mid 20's if I recall correctly. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; I recall two days in a row in July 1984 where it was raining all day with 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; very cold conditions and widespread snowfalls in the eastern states... Now 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; some say that occasional snow fell in some suburbs in Sydney although it 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; was mostly persistent light rain. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Jimmy Deguara 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; At 03:40 PM 29/03/01 +0800, you wrote: 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;I was in Sydney for the July 1986 event. It was a very cold day and I 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;was at my home at Collaroy Beach. Suddenly there were large slushy white 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;flakes of snow falling but melting instantly as they hit the ground. It 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;had been a rainy day so everything was already soaking wet and the ground 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;temperature was obviously well above freezing point. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;I drove up the hill to a friend's place while it was still snowing and 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;they had never seen snow in their lives and were all just about going 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;loopy. I suppose it was falling for at least half an hour, probably much 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;longer, maybe an hour or two, but it certainly wasn't all day. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;I also have very clear memories of the July 1951 event when I lived at 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;Terang in western Victoria. We built a snowman and I was allowed to stay 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;home from school - I can't remember whether school was officially closed 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;or not. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;It was a very cold night and we arose in the morning to see the whole 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;town covered in snow. It was at least 8 cm deep, probably more, maybe 10 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;or 15cm. We had a wonderful snowball fight and there was still plenty 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;left. The snow covered our back yard for two days. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;Phil 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;&lt;&gt;&lt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;-----Original Message----- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;From: "Lindsay Pearce" <WRITER at LISP.COM.AU>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;To: <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 16:59:58 +1000 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;Subject: aus-wx: snow records 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Hi Patrick, Phillip and Duncan 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; An excellent link there Patrick. Thanks for that. I'd be interested to 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; hear 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; more about the July 1986 fall in Sydney where apparently light, melting 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; snow 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; fell. I was in Darwin at that time. There was some mention of this fall 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; on 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; the list before, I think. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; It's interesting to read of the big fall up here on 5th July 1900 as 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; depth of snow corresponds to my records of that event (not that I was 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; here 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; then!) although there does seem to be some different records floating 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; about 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; of that fall. During the 1995 season up here, there was also a good 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; fall in 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; November which is recorded in various "Waratah in Snow" shots from 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; local 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; photographer, John Martin. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Nice to see some of the falls in the fairly recent past too. It gives 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; us 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; snow/winter folk some hope for a nice dump again. Spare a thought for 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; us 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; "snowies", there may not be much snow left at all in a few decades 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; time, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; outside of the ski-fields, so 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; we have to hold onto each flake. Might have to retire to Thredbo in 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 2030, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; just after the "Thredbo-Blockade" of 2028 when snow chasers took over 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; town :) Some old bearded Blackheath guy apparently started the blockade 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; by 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; burning an old bomb Hyundai Excel. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Lindsay Pearce 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Email: writer at lisp.com.au 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; ----- Original Message ----- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; From: "Patrick Tobin" <PDTOBIN at HOTMAIL.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; To: <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 1:34 AM 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide snow [was:Weather in Alice Springs] 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Hi Phil and Duncan, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; The BoM has an interesting page on low level snow-falls 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; this century at: 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/c20thc/temp4.shtml 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; The following extract from the above site deals with the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 1951 event and provides some dates (to assist anyone 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; searching newspaper records). 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; "In winter 1951 snow blanketed most of Tasmania twice within three 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; weeks 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; (19-20 July and 9 August), blocking roads and interrupting mail 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; services. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; On 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 9 August snow had to be shovelled from the streets of Queenstown 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; (elevation 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 191 metres). Light snow also fell in the streets and suburbs of 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Melbourne, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; and in Adelaide as well during the July event." 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Patrick 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Snip... 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; + 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; your 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; message. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; - 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; message. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; ----------------------------------------- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Jimmy Deguara 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; from 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Schofields, Sydney 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; NSW Australia 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Web Page with Michael Bath 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Australian Severe Weather Home Page 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.australiasevereweather.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; President of the Australian Severe Weather Association 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.severeweather.asn.au 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; message. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; message. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 
<DIV></DIV><br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>
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</x-html>
From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at australia.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sporadic E Wx query.
Date: Sat, 31 Mar 2001 01:39:38 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
X-Spam-Rating: ausns1.austasia.net 1.6.2 0/1101/N
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.600" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Nice to see nothing has changed here 
then............lol</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Paul Yole<BR>State Rep - ASWA Vic<BR>Comms Officer - Murtoa 
CFA<BR>(041) 836 9256<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=paul at nothingdesign.com.au 
  href="mailto:paul at nothingdesign.com.au">Paul Mirtschin</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, March 30, 2001 11:16 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: aus-wx: Sporadic E Wx 
  query.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
    size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>Unless you moved to the Wimmera............or South 
    Australia........LOL</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>PaulY</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=464251413-30032001><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>Hey!! I grew up in that area!!</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=464251413-30032001><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=464251413-30032001><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>I 
  spent my youth waking up in winter to find frozen glasses of water beside the 
  bed, and surviving Horsham's Summer of dust storms and 40+ degree 
  days...</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <P><FONT size=2>&nbsp; 
  --------------------------------------<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Paul Mirtschin - 
  Ph 0414 658 174&nbsp;<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Nothing Communications &amp; 
  Design<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; paul at nothingdesign.com.au<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
  www.nothingdesign.com.au<BR><BR>Everybody is somebody else's 
freak</FONT></P></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Sat, 31 Mar 2001 07:32:11 +1000 (EST)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Suction vortices/spots
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Kevin/all

I just wanted to quickly mention that if you're trying to access my URL
that I mentioned earlier, it won't work because the f**king Monash maths
server is down...again!  So, best bet will be to wait until Monday. 

Kevin, I'll get back to your question later on.


Cheers

On Fri, 30 Mar 2001, Kevin Phyland wrote:

> 
> Hi Robert (et al),
> 
> When you say periphery do you mean internal or external to the main tornado? 
> If internal, then I think Fujita strongly suspected just such a mechanism 
> back in the early sixties and the Super Outbreak of 1974 showed just such a 
> signature with the "slinky" pattern evident in fields (i.e. cup your hand, 
> stick your fingertips in ink and rotate them as you move your hand across a 
> piece of paper..) Where the traces cross seemed to be areas of maximum 
> destruction.
> 
> If you mean external to the main tornado, then the Palm Sunday 1965 outbreak 
> may be relevant. I've seen a few shots of triple vortices that seem to 
> indicate that they may be just the suction vortices that you mention...
> 
> My question: Are you talking about separate visible vortices or hidden 
> vortices and (question 2 I guess) are clusters of rotating vortices 
> considered one tornado or separate?
> 
> Cheers,
> Kevin from Wycheproof.
> 

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Suction vortices/spots
Date: Sat, 31 Mar 2001 01:00:57 +1000
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Hi Robert/all
I have always been fascinated by this phenomena,the sub vortices I believe
develop near to the interior boundary point i.e on the periphery of the
central primary vortice,near to the ground frictional bias plays an
important roll in their development,i.e can an equation be established from
the speed of the rotation above the friction boundary layer and then the
retardation from this point to the surface of the earth,the resultant and at
times severe suction spots/vortices may exhibit speeds briefly close to the
non frictional speed of the main tornado?!!.It is well known from
photographic analysis that these secondary vortices can produce much
stronger gusts and damage than the mean frictionally retarded tornadatic
circulation.regards Clyve Herbert..
----- Original Message -----
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, March 30, 2001 2:58 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Suction vortices/spots


>
> Hi David/all
>
> Suctions spots/vortices are essentially smaller tornadoes associated with
> a larger tornado, and they typically appear around the periphery of the
> main tornado.  At these points it is believed the strongest winds, and
> thus most damage, occurs.
>
> In brief terms, suction vortices arise through instabilities set up on the
> boundary between downdrafts within the tornado vortex, and the updrafts on
> the outside.  See diagram (c) and (d) in
>
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/tornado.html
>
> for what this boundary looks like.  Part (d) is just where this downflow
> reaches the ground, which would lead to these suction vortices also
> reaching the ground.  This is shown in Part (e).
>
> This configuration creates a relatively clear region in the centre with
> the vortices around the periphery.  In the example mentioned on the
> webpage (http://chaseday.com/tornado-shamrock77.htm), there is no obvious
> clear region probably due to the fact that the overall central pressure of
> the whole tornado is low enough to permit condensation to occur.
>
>
> This may lead to the question as to how does this central downdraft occur.
>
> First, some basics.
> In a tornado (tornado here including the broad-scale flow around, not just
> the part visible due to condensation) there is convergence of the winds at
> the surface and divergence aloft.  You could sort of imagine it as
> hourglass in shape.  See the bottom diagram in my URL.
>
> Inflow takes place near the surface due to the lower central pressure
> along the axis of rotation.  As a parcel of air gets closer to the central
> axis, using conservation of angular momentum, it will increase its
> tangential speed (ie rotate faster).  This rotating parcel will then feel
> a centrifugal force outward.  This parcel will reach some distance from
> the axis where the inward pressure force is balanced by the outward
> centrifugal force.  At this point, the parcel will not move in, nor will
> it move out, and will continue to spiral upwards.
>
> One thing to add to this is that near the surface, frictional affects
> cause the pressure force to dominate, and so the parcel spirals in near
> the centre.  At upper levels, the pressure force weakens and so the
> centrifugal force dominates, and the parcel spirals outward.  This
> explains the hourglass shape.
>
> In this shape, there is a relative high pressure near the surface and
> another above (see diagram, marked with 'H').  In the centre of the
> vortex, the pressure is relatively low 'L'.  This is caused by normal
> Venturi effects (low wind speed = higher pressure and vice versa).  Since
> air flows from high to low pressures, there will be a tendency for air to
> descend from the top to the centre, and to rise from the ground to the
> centre.  However, only when the swirl ratio (tangential speed / updraft
> speed) is high enough will these two flow join up in the centre (see part
> (d), and part (c) which doesn't show the ground effect), to form a
> complete updraft/downdraft boundary that reaches the ground.  Diagrams
> (a), (b), ....(d) show the affect that increasing swirl ratio has on the
> tornado vortex.
>
> This boundary then permits wave instabilities to propagate in the from of
> these suction vortices.  Video footage shown in a Vic ASWA meeting of one
> of the _many_ funnels seen in Geelong last year shows quite clearly these
> multiple vortices, which would be explained by figure similar to (c).
>
>
> Hope this helps.
>
>
> Cheers
>
> --
>
> Robert A. Goler
>
> E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
> Department of Mathematics and Statistics
> Monash University
> Clayton, Vic 3800
> Australia
>
> --
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 31 Mar 2001 09:33:43 +1000
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        TWC Weather <aussie-weather at theweather.com.au>,
        Ray Kollmorgen <R.Kollmorgen at bom.gov.au>,
        Tony Bannister <T.Bannister at bom.gov.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Evolution and Mesocyclone Structure as Related to 
 Tornadogenesis
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Morning all,

The first of a series of papers by Leslie Lemon (& others) is now
available at http://www.stormchasers.au.com/107lemon1.htm

The first paper, 'Severe Thunderstorm Evolution and Mesocyclone
Structure as Related to Tornadogenesis.'  by Lemon & Doswell (June 1979)
is 14 pages.

I have to thank Les for making them available to us - they have not been
available online previously, and a huge thanks to Robert Goler for
photocopying and scanning them. The other papers (including the one by
Browning) will go up over the next few weeks.

Jane


--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 30 Mar 2001 16:41:20 -0800 (PST)
From: Mario Paul <stormtwist at yahoo.com>
Subject: aus-wx: ASWA  Bushwalk
To: weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

With the storm season just about over I am organising
a bushwalk for ASWA members and their friends to help
combat SDS ! The details are as follows:
SATURDAY 21st April, meet at Wentworth Falls Train
Station at 10am SHARP!!! From there we will decide on
the day as to which walk we will do.There are plenty
to choose from.Bring good walking shoes,food and
drink.Afterwards if there is time we might go to a pub
or a cafe for a drink and a bite to eat.Bring your
friends as everyone is welcome.Should be a fun day
out. By the way the weather forecast will be as
follows: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE FOR THE BLUE MTS
AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO WARNING !! ...so
bring your cameras.......  Hope to see a big turnout:)
Any questions email me personally on  
stormtwist at yahoo.com 

__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get email at your own domain with Yahoo! Mail. 
http://personal.mail.yahoo.com/?.refer=text
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 31 Mar 2001 12:50:17 +1000
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Improved Application of Conventional Radar Data and Satellite 
 Imaging......
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Afternoon,

The second paper is up.
'Improved Application of Conventional Radar Data and Satellite Imaging
to Severe Thunderstorm Detection & Prediction'

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/1978lemon1.htm

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 31 Mar 2001 04:06:48 -0600
From: Sam Barricklow <k5kj at pulse.net>
Organization: Home Page http://www.k5kj.net/
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win95; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Weather Chase Canada <wx-chase-can at zeroreality.com>,
        Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: [Fwd: [WX-CHASE] Northern Lights in Virginia!]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

This should be a spectacular display in Canada.  For y'all down under, follow the
link listed below, then scroll down the page to the Southern Hemisphere image.
It appears that southern Australia and New Zealand may be within view of the
aurora too and it may actually be overhead in Tasmania!

Sam

Bill Hark wrote:

> I just returned from seeing an amazing display of northern lights or aurora.
> I knew a large solar flare had hit the earth and unusually intense northern
> lights would be expected. I wasn't expecting much since Virginia is very far
> south for northern lights. There was a partial moon and the weather was
> expected to become cloudy.
>
>     When I returned from a party, I was still clear. The moon wasn't that
> bright. I checked the website which shows auroral activity
> (http://www.spacew.com/www/aurora.html) and Virginia was covered with red
> which means intense display. Eventhough I was tired (and have a 10K run
> planned for tomorrow), I jumped in the car with my camera and drove west on
> 250 to a dark location. Luckily, Richmond is to the east. In Goochland
> County, I found a large field with a northern view. I pulled over and let my
> eyes adjust. Nothing. It was about 11PM and all I saw were stars, somewhat
> washed out be the moon. I waited and was treated to a very large meteor which
> lasted a couple of seconds as it streaked across the entire sky. I was about
> to give up when I noticed a slight reddish area blocked by trees to the
> northwest. I drove west a 1/4 of a mile and found another area to pull over.
> To the north-nothwest, the sky glowed with red with faint whitish colums of
> light.(approx 11:15PM) Absolutely amazing. I tried calling my uncle who is a
> photographer  while getting my photo gear together. Somehow, I set off the
> car alarm which wouldn't turn off for several minutes. Arrgh!  By the time I
> got everything setup, the aurora had faded to a very dull reddish glow which
> slowly vanished. I waited and it didn't reoccur. I was very tired and I
> gathered my stuff and drove toward Richmond. While driving, I noticed an
> unusual whitish glow to the north. It appeared like lights from a distant
> town but I knew that area was supposed  to be dark. I pulled over and the
> light area became a bright whitish partial ring like a blurred rainbow. I set
> up the camera and started taking pictures. As I watched, huge colums of
> whitish light would form and vanish extending above the ring. These columns
> were superimposed upon an amorphous area of red glow. The moon was setting
> and the aurora brightened. The display ended when clouds moved in at about
> 12:15AM. Northern light as far south as Virginia is very rare. The solar
> storm is continuing and the northern lights may be visible Saturday night.
>
> William T. Hark
> http://www.harkphoto.com
>
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