http://australiasevereweather.com/ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 02:36:03 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List , astro-weather at topica.com From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Ken Ring vs the RNGs - update & Haralds final result Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. We have reached an interesting point in the proceedings where the result using Haralds first proposed raw method with no rain threshold is now complete while my method still requires another 2 days due to the rainfall distribution method and the +-1 day leeway. Haralds method unashamedly declares Drowt (aka Mindless) with a score of 66% as the real winner! The next best is RNG#1 with 62%, then RNG#3 on 59%, with Ken coming in 4th at 52%, RNG#2 on 48% and the new comer Flood on 34%. I look forward to Harald's post of any conclusions he may wish to draw from his method. Using my method the progress so far gives Ken a lead in the final strait at 85% with RNG#1 close behind on 80% and RNG's 2 & 3 on 75%, Drowt is way back at 36% and Flood is trailing at 34%. Stay tuned for an exciting finish! Here are the tables for those who wish to see the details: Haralds Raw Method - Final | Raw Data | | Rain Fine Tot | Obs | 10 19 29 | Odds | 34% 66% 50% | | | Ken | 3 12 15 | | 30% 63% 52% | RNG#1 | 4 14 18 | | 40% 74% 62% | RNG#2 | 2 12 14 | | 20% 63% 48% | RNG#3 | 1 16 17 | | 10% 84% 59% | Drowt | 0 19 19 | | 0% 100% 66% | Flood | 10 0 10 | | 100% 0% 34% | Carl's Leeway and Windows Method | Number of Days | Timing | Windows | Av | | Rain Fine Tot | Rain Fine Tot | Rain Fine Tot | All | Obs | 9 19 28 | 9 19 28 | 5 5 10 | | Odds | 32% 68% 50% | 35% 73% 54% | 36% 36% 36% | 47% | | | | | | Fcst | Number of Days | Timing | Windows | Resu | | Rain Fine Av | Rain Fine Av | Rain Fine Av | All | Ken | 10 19 | 5.4 14.7 | 4 5 9 | | | 90% 100% 93% | 60% 77% 72% | 80% 100% 90% | 85% | RNG#1 | 9 20 | 7 17.3 | 8 9 17 | | | 100% 95% 94% | 77% 91% 87% | 63% 56% 59% | 80% | RNG#2 | 9 20 | 3.9 15.6 | 8 8 16 | | | 100% 95% 94% | 44% 82% 70% | 63% 63% 63% | 75% | RNG#3 | 4 25 | 2.1 18.1 | 4 5 9 | | | 44% 76% 64% | 23% 95% 72% | 80% 100% 90% | 75% | Drowt | 0 29 | 0 15.7 | 0 1 1 | | | 0% 66% 43% | 0% 82% 56% | 0% 20% 10% | 36% | Flood | 29 0 | 5.2 0 | 1 0 1 | | | 31% 0% 10% | 58% 0% 19% | 20% 0% 10% | 13% | Harald's Table (modified) 1 mm Rain Threshold SydAP Dy Obs Fcst1 Fcst2 Fcst3 Fcst4 Fcst5 Fcst6 9am Ja Rain Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood 0 02 -- 0 03 -- - - - - - R 0 04 -- - - - - - R 0 05 -- - - - R - R 0 06 -R R - R - - R 14 07 RR R R - - - R 7.2 08 R- - - - - - R 0 09 -- - R R R - R 0 10 -- - - - - - R 0 11 -- - R - - - R 0 12 -- - - - - - R 0 13 -- R - R - - R 0 14 -- R - - - - R 0 15 -R - - - - - R 19 16 RR - R - - - R 11.4 17 R- - - - - - R 0.2 18 -- - - - - - R 0 19 -- - - R - - R 0 20 -- R - - - - R 0 21 -R - R R - - R 2.2 22 R- - - - - - R 0 23 -R - R - - - R 6.2 24 RR R R R - - R 4 25 R- R - - - - R 0 26 -- R - R - - R 0 27 -- R - R - - R 0 28 -- R R - R - R 0 29 -R - - - - - R 3.2 30 RR - R - R - R 1.2 31 R? - - R - - R ? 01 ?? ? 02 Tot 68.6 mm Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne today... Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 08:55:34 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com lots and lots and lots of cut text... >Tomorrow (Friday): Tomorrow should prove to be an interesting day - = >there will be something to be learned from tomorrow. Macca, first a word of encouragement for the posts. The effort you put into these really puts some of us to shame! Based on persual of the observations and progs, I suspect it is a wise move hanging around Melbourne at least to lunch time. There is always uncertainty, but I wouldn't be surprised if the best action occurs very close to Melbourne. The instability indices in the models are tending to maximise through central Victoria, as is mid level moisture (700hPa RH approach 100% for tonight), while the local aspect and topography should yield healthy low to mid 30s temperature across the Melbourne metro area through the afternoon in the broad ENE to NNE surface flow. Melbourne is also going to be relatively close (this arvo) to the surface trough currently over western Victoria, which should provide some low level convergence. Looking out the window, the scattered Ac and odd bit of castellated Ac points to (at least) reasonable mid level instability and moisture, while in the low levels dewpoints have increased by 3-5C since this time yesterday (we even had a good dew this morning at Ferny Creek with a minimum if 15C which points to quite a depth of warm humid PBL air). BTW gazing further into the future, it seems that yet again the northern end of the thickness trough associated with the front crossing the waters south of the Bight is expected to "cut-off" from the more southerly section near Ceduna and then stall. At the same time, the high approaching Victoria first ridges, then establishes its main centre south of the mainland. Such a scenario often precedes the development of easterly dips through NSW and Victoria and eventually cyclogenesis... certainly something to watch for.. Regards, David Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne today... Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 10:59:23 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 Feb 2002 00:01:29.0430 (UTC) FILETIME=[9980AF60:01C1AAB3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all. An interesting discussion, I also read Macca's stuff with interest and I would like to encourage him to take his interest further.....The synoptic set-up developing over the Australian region is looking promising, the cloud area in the Tasman has been edging south-westward for almost a week when this area of convergence was north of NZ,I also agree with "Doc Jones" there is something cut-off looking about the set up for the southern part of Australia and the southeast of the continent is looking better for this situation, not a bad field of cold air moving into the south-western Aus Bight area as well. It would be nice to see this cold air region mucking about with the increasing tropical/sub tropical moisture now feeding into much of eastern Aus..keep a lookout.. regards Clyve Herbert. ----- Original Message ----- From: David Jones To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail) Sent: Friday, February 01, 2002 8:55 AM Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne today... > lots and lots and lots of cut text... > >Tomorrow (Friday): Tomorrow should prove to be an interesting day - = > >there will be something to be learned from tomorrow. > > Macca, first a word of encouragement for the posts. The effort you put into > these really puts some of us to shame! > Based on persual of the observations and progs, I suspect it is a wise move > hanging around Melbourne at least to lunch time. > There is always uncertainty, but I wouldn't be surprised if the best action > occurs very close to Melbourne. The instability indices in the models are > tending to maximise through central Victoria, as is mid level moisture > (700hPa RH approach 100% for tonight), while the local aspect and topography > should yield healthy low to mid 30s temperature across the Melbourne metro > area through the afternoon in the broad ENE to NNE surface flow. Melbourne > is also going to be relatively close (this arvo) to the surface trough > currently over western Victoria, which should provide some low level > convergence. > > Looking out the window, the scattered Ac and odd bit of castellated Ac > points to (at least) reasonable mid level instability and moisture, while in > the low levels dewpoints have increased by 3-5C since this time yesterday > (we even had a good dew this morning at Ferny Creek with a minimum if 15C > which points to quite a depth of warm humid PBL air). > > BTW gazing further into the future, it seems that yet again the northern end > of the thickness trough associated with the front crossing the waters south > of the Bight is expected to "cut-off" from the more southerly section near > Ceduna and then stall. At the same time, the high approaching Victoria first > ridges, then establishes its main centre south of the mainland. Such a > scenario often precedes the development of easterly dips through NSW and > Victoria and eventually cyclogenesis... certainly something to watch for.. > > Regards, > > David > > Dr David Jones > > Climate Analysis Section > National Climate Centre > Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 > GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 > Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 > email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: SSY rainfall FCST (final score) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 11:49:29 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Well, Here it is, the long-awaited score of a simple hit = (- - or R R) method: RNG#1: 18/28 RNG#2: 16/28 RNG#3: 15/28 Mindless: 15/28 Ken: 13/28 I do realise that the verification methodology can be improved, but if your rainfall forecast goal _were_ simply to predict rain/no rain days for the point location YSSY, this simple method is an acceptable start. I find it remarkable that the "inverse" of Ken's forecast (replace "-" by "R", and "R" by "-") would have scored better (15/28) than Ken's actual forecast. That tells me that _any_ verification scheme that has Ken's forecast miraculously come out on top is suspicious. Regarding "window forecasts", I could shift Ken's rain windows (using eyeball technology) up or down in my verification table (below), and it doesn't make his forecast look any better. The forecast simply doesn't relate well to the obs! Carl wrote: > complete while my method still requires another 2 days due to the rainfall > distribution method and the +-1 day leeway. My method looks at 5...30 min METARS, requiring no time-weighted distributions of 24h rainfall totals. Time-weighted 24h rain distrinution is a temporally smoothing approach and is not optimal in Sydney's summertime _convective_ rainfall regime, where rain is more likely to fall in short bursts. > Haralds method unashamedly declares Drowt (aka Mindless) with a score of > 66% as the real winner! No, it doesn't. "Mindless" (a.k.a. drought) is the bottom of the pack (apart from Ken). BTW, my methodology is not capable of feeling shame (or the lack thereof). The methodology in itself is mindless. > The next best is RNG#1 with 62%, then RNG#3 on 59%, > with Ken coming in 4th at 52%, RNG#2 on 48% and the new comer Flood on 34%. In terms of percentages, rather than hits/fcst days, my results look like this: RNG#1: 64% RNG#2: 57% RNG#3: 54% Mindless: 54% Ken: 46% The table from which these scores are derived follows: Day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless -------------------------------------------- 03 - - - - - - 04 - - - - - - 05 - - - - R - 06 R R - R - - 07 R R R - - - 08 - - - - - - 09 R - R R R - 10 - - - - - - 11 - - R - - - 12 - - - - - - 13 - R - R - - 14 - R - - - - 15 R - - - - - 16 R - R - - - 17 R - - - - - 18 R? - - - - - 19 - - - R - - 20 - R - - - - 21 R - R R - - 22 R - - - - - 23 - - R - - - 24 R R R R - - 25 R R - - - - 26 - R - R - - 27 - R - R - - 28 - R R - R - 29 R - - - - - 30 R - R - R - 31 R - - R - - I excluded 18 Jan 2002 due to an ambiguity in the METARS reports. No matter whether the 18th was/was not a "R" day, the relative outcome would not change as all "forecasts" were "-". > I look forward to Harald's post of any conclusions he may wish to draw from > his method. Harald wishes to point out the following: Despite the obvious shortcomings of the (- -;R R) verification methodology, a truly skillfull forecast methodology should have at least beaten some of the RNGs (if not all). I see no point to engage in a more complex verification methodology at this point, which would have to take into account temporal AND SPATIAL rainfall distribution patterns _and_ rainfall amounts. Science is teeming with "research rabbit trails" that demand to be pursued in hope of new discoveries. A researcher must select a few of the most promising rabbit trails. Following down every existing trail is impossible, and an inadequate selection of trails is irresponsible and a waste of time. I consider the results of my simple rainfall verification methodology sufficiently informative to close off the trail related to Ken's methodology. The idea in early January was to "give Ken a go" - I have done so. I have received yet another _indication_ (not proof! -- I know one month + one location is not enough) that his method is not sufficiently promising for me to be pursued. This 'closure' is especially appropriate if you add the more physically based arguments regarding the magnitude of the moon's gravitational pull _relative to_ the magnitude of all the other factors that influence rainfall. In complex physical systems where hundreds of physical factors all influence each other in nonlinear feedbacks, almost _any_ methodology can survive testing as it can hide in the complexity of the physical system. Stay tuned for VIC thunder today, Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: aus-wx: Vic Storms Today Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 12:05:17 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 Feb 2002 01:07:50.0508 (UTC) FILETIME=[DE68FAC0:01C1AABC] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

Thankyou for you kind words of encouragement David and Clyve.  I also enjoy reading your emails and take the information into account when doing my forecasts.

As pointed out by Dr Jones on the this morning, mositure levels have increased significantly across Victoria overnight with dew points currently ranging between 13C and 18C with a clear dew point gradient running from east to west (with higher DP's in the E). I think the PBL will be a tad drier than this and we should see these DP's mix out later this morning/early this arvo and they should come down to a more accurate indication of the PBL of about 12-13C. The YMML sounding this morning is quite nice with -1.9 LI's on it and only a plotted temperature of 30C. With a temp of 33-35C this sounding gets quite nice. The sounding is quite representative of much of Victoria up to about 350mb but above that is where things get interesting. As menitoned yesterday, an upper ridge is pushing into the W of the state so the sounding should warm somewhat throughout the day above 350mb - this warming can already be seen slightly on the 23:00 UTC sounding at 300mb. Given the sounding I'd think garden variety storms will top out at about 28-30,000ft or so but stronger storms should get quite a bit higher, hitting about 35-36,000ft. Shear is very marginal on the sounding but I'll discuss this a little later.

The trough is progged to be in the W of the state at about 4pm running from about Lorne - Mortlake - Swan Hill. Storms should fire near the axis of the trough with some nice convergence. The trough will be clearly defined as it was yesterday and I wouldn't want to be on the wrong wide of it as it will be dry with S'ly winds. The ranges will also kick off storms today given the unsettled nature of the day. 850mb temps are progged to warm slightly throughout the day from 16C to about 18C which should aid in capping convection until later on. The ranges should start to fire around Mt Baw Baw, Mt Hotham, Mt Buller after 2pm, other ranges will go closer to 4pm with the plains (off the ranges) probably going even later - close to 5pm. Of course the cap will be slightly weaker in the S so the SW areas near trough could potentially go a little earlier if they get some decent heating.

Shear across the state is quite marginal but not as slack as yesterday (although I was surprised by the anvils of the storms getting dragged off to the SE on a jet which looked to be about 25knts which was a bit more than progged). Given the shear progged by AVN and the BoM's aviaiton forecast, storms should move generally NW to SE but again storms could move in wierd directions due to progogation. Although the shear is marginal I think there will be just enough for storms to be somewhat organised. Given this and the fact that upper level temperatures are relatively cool I think we could see some severe storms today. Central, North Central, North Eastern, South/West Gippsland, Eastern and Alpine districts should all see severe storms. Note that these are all E of a line from about 144E - I think the upper level ridging will not allow for conveciton to reach severe levels (storms should still form along the trough but i don't think they'll be the best ones - they could, however, flatten to thundery rain later this evening giving us Melbournites a nice show tonight). Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding (given that storms will be moving realtively slowly), damaging winds are possible and some large hail is also possible. I would speculate that hail could get as large as 3cm in the strongest storms today E of 144E especially in elevated areas where the FZL is lower.

While typing it looks like a cell popped up and down again to the WNW of Sale which is interesting. We could see things go a bit earlier than anticipated if heating gets in before the cap increases a bit. Given that its already 30/16 at my place and hitting high 20's/low 30's across much of central and north central Victoria, storms *may* take off early than initially thought. Some nice AcCas is sitting on the ranges at the moment and some Ac extends across to the western suburbs of Melbourne.

I'll be staying here for a while, watching and waiting. I don't think I'll be chasing west of 144E and given the current situation I think the area bounded by Melbourne - Seymour - Noojee - Mansfield would be a good start for today. I also think Seymour - Mansfield - Bright - Albury will be OK today. For those who like to sit and watch it happen from a distance a few places to watch from are the fire tower at Kangaroo Ground, Doncaster Shopping Town carpark and Mt Dandenong - all places have great views in almost all directions.

Enjoy!!!!

Macca

(Andrew McDonald)

Subject: aus-wx: VIC storms today To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 14:09:32 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Storm connoisseurs, --------------- _My_ VIC SYNOPSIS: Widespread non-severe thunderstorms east of a trough axis in W VIC. Main marginal severe threat: strong outflow winds and heavy rain from NNW - SSE moving storms. --- details --- With weak synoptic forcing today it'll be the subtle low-level features than will determine where and when the water vapour decides to act. Similar to yesterday, particular attention should be given to the cyclonic shear zone (trough) currently located in W VIC, and the ranges. 500 hPa Meso-LAPS +6/+12 output has a mid-level thermal trough with T < -13C oriented N-S just E of Wilson's prom. Meso-LAPS also moves a 500 hPa thermal ridge into extreme W VIC by late tonight. For this afternoon, AVN progs a light (10-20 knots) mid-level NW flow over VIC ahead of the approaching wave S of the Bight. Meso-LAPS progs (+12) 10-15 knots, but more from the NNW. It also progs a peculiar anticyclonic shear zone running from Albury/Wodonga to Bairnsdale. Current surface winds E of the weak surface trough in W VIC sport 5-20 knots from the N and NE, giving us a weakly curved hodograph with insufficient shear for supercells ATM. However, in terms of CAPE the AVN speaks a plain language with a significant westerly LI gradient; LIs are -3 to -6 E, and positive W of a meridional axis through W VIC this afternoon. Storms have already initiated along the trough N of Swan Hill, which is located just E of the meridionally opriened trough. The best play, you ask? Once the 2:32 UTC GMS-5 VIS image is on my desk I'd be very keen to see the Cu field in it. I'd play the trough, not the ranges for the usual practical considerations (i.e. not getting stuck inside a valley). Ooops, here is the 2:32 image: * storms on the N ranges (S of Mansfield to Omeo) * towering Cu WSW of Geelong (hmmm - E seabreeze running into a good boundary?) * Cu field just E of Swan Hill extending S * Cu field extending WNW from Geelong convection Maybe just W of Geelong - along Hamilton Hwy with a N-S option handy ... Stay tuned. Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 16:04:58 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 Feb 2002 05:07:28.0868 (UTC) FILETIME=[58949A40:01C1AADE] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All, The cap has just broken across the plains to the W of Melbourne with LARGE TCu's exploding up into the cooler upper levels. Weak Cb's have developed near Werribee (not precipitating much) and more significant stuff has gone near Geelong - now showing up on radar. Cells to the E are still going and are heading towards Moe and Sale. Be interesting to watch their AWS obs over the next few hours. I'm going to hang here for another 20-30mins before deciding where to head. Nothing is really standing out at the moment so I'll wait until it does. Macca-wx ----- Original Message ----- From: Harald Richter To: Aussie Weather Sent: Friday, February 01, 2002 2:09 PM Subject: aus-wx: VIC storms today > > Storm connoisseurs, > > --------------- > > _My_ VIC SYNOPSIS: Widespread non-severe thunderstorms east of a trough axis in W VIC. > Main marginal severe threat: strong outflow winds and heavy rain from NNW - SSE moving > storms. > > --- details --- > > With weak synoptic forcing today it'll be the subtle low-level features > than will determine where and when the water vapour decides to act. > Similar to yesterday, particular attention should be given to the cyclonic > shear zone (trough) currently located in W VIC, and the ranges. > > 500 hPa Meso-LAPS +6/+12 output has a mid-level thermal trough > with T < -13C oriented N-S just E of Wilson's prom. > Meso-LAPS also moves a 500 hPa thermal ridge into extreme W VIC by late tonight. > > For this afternoon, AVN progs a light (10-20 knots) mid-level NW flow over > VIC ahead of the approaching wave S of the Bight. Meso-LAPS progs (+12) > 10-15 knots, but more from the NNW. It also progs a peculiar > anticyclonic shear zone running from Albury/Wodonga to Bairnsdale. > Current surface winds E of the weak surface trough in W VIC > sport 5-20 knots from the N and NE, giving us a weakly curved > hodograph with insufficient shear for supercells ATM. > > However, in terms of CAPE the AVN speaks a plain language with a significant westerly LI > gradient; LIs are -3 to -6 E, and positive W of a meridional axis through W VIC > this afternoon. > > Storms have already initiated along the trough N of Swan Hill, > which is located just E of the meridionally opriened trough. > > The best play, you ask? > Once the 2:32 UTC GMS-5 VIS image is on my desk I'd be very keen to see > the Cu field in it. I'd play the trough, not the ranges for the usual practical > considerations (i.e. not getting stuck inside a valley). > > Ooops, here is the 2:32 image: > * storms on the N ranges (S of Mansfield to Omeo) > * towering Cu WSW of Geelong (hmmm - E seabreeze running into a good boundary?) > * Cu field just E of Swan Hill extending S > * Cu field extending WNW from Geelong convection > > Maybe just W of Geelong - along Hamilton Hwy with a N-S option handy ... > > Stay tuned. Harald > > -- > _________________________________________________________________________ > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 > PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > _________________________________________________________________________ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: Current T'storms / VIC potential To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 16:23:52 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Gang, To put things a bit into perspective, the trough in W VIC is the southern extension of a continental-scale trough that is linked to a thermally forced low in the Windorah (QLD) region. SW QLD shows a closed circulation on the ground, and very rich BL moisture to the NE. There is a massive amount of lightning in SW and S QLD where the low draws moisture into its circulation. Scattered storms extend along the trough through W NSW down to about Swan Hill (VIC). VIC: Latest VIS shows Cu field right along a meridioanl moisture axis W of MML. Surface dewpoints are holding onto the lower teens despite temperatures in the low 30s. Scattered thunderstorms are evident just N of the VIC border in the SWan Hill region. Temps there are 36C, just a little hotter to promote initiation. Some locally deeper convection is evident WSW of Geelong (still) along a sea breeze convergence zone. A second area of deep convection is evident along the ranges extending ENE from about Mt Buller. The lightning tracker shows nothing for the mountain convection, which I find very strange! The big question for VIC is: when (and where) will the first deep cell emerge from the Cu soup between Colac and Swan Hill? Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Lindsay Smail" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: VIC storms today Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 16:25:25 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Macca - Don't get too excited about Geelong just at the moment - it looks OK on radar but its all virga. Still dry as a bone although DP 17. Lindsay Smail. -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Andrew Sent: Friday, 1 February 2002 3:05 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today Hi All, The cap has just broken across the plains to the W of Melbourne with LARGE TCu's exploding up into the cooler upper levels. Weak Cb's have developed near Werribee (not precipitating much) and more significant stuff has gone near Geelong - now showing up on radar. Cells to the E are still going and are heading towards Moe and Sale. Be interesting to watch their AWS obs over the next few hours. I'm going to hang here for another 20-30mins before deciding where to head. Nothing is really standing out at the moment so I'll wait until it does. Macca-wx ----- Original Message ----- From: Harald Richter To: Aussie Weather Sent: Friday, February 01, 2002 2:09 PM Subject: aus-wx: VIC storms today > > Storm connoisseurs, > > --------------- > > _My_ VIC SYNOPSIS: Widespread non-severe thunderstorms east of a trough axis in W VIC. > Main marginal severe threat: strong outflow winds and heavy rain from NNW - SSE moving > storms. > > --- details --- > > With weak synoptic forcing today it'll be the subtle low-level features > than will determine where and when the water vapour decides to act. > Similar to yesterday, particular attention should be given to the cyclonic > shear zone (trough) currently located in W VIC, and the ranges. > > 500 hPa Meso-LAPS +6/+12 output has a mid-level thermal trough > with T < -13C oriented N-S just E of Wilson's prom. > Meso-LAPS also moves a 500 hPa thermal ridge into extreme W VIC by late tonight. > > For this afternoon, AVN progs a light (10-20 knots) mid-level NW flow over > VIC ahead of the approaching wave S of the Bight. Meso-LAPS progs (+12) > 10-15 knots, but more from the NNW. It also progs a peculiar > anticyclonic shear zone running from Albury/Wodonga to Bairnsdale. > Current surface winds E of the weak surface trough in W VIC > sport 5-20 knots from the N and NE, giving us a weakly curved > hodograph with insufficient shear for supercells ATM. > > However, in terms of CAPE the AVN speaks a plain language with a significant westerly LI > gradient; LIs are -3 to -6 E, and positive W of a meridional axis through W VIC > this afternoon. > > Storms have already initiated along the trough N of Swan Hill, > which is located just E of the meridionally opriened trough. > > The best play, you ask? > Once the 2:32 UTC GMS-5 VIS image is on my desk I'd be very keen to see > the Cu field in it. I'd play the trough, not the ranges for the usual practical > considerations (i.e. not getting stuck inside a valley). > > Ooops, here is the 2:32 image: > * storms on the N ranges (S of Mansfield to Omeo) > * towering Cu WSW of Geelong (hmmm - E seabreeze running into a good boundary?) > * Cu field just E of Swan Hill extending S > * Cu field extending WNW from Geelong convection > > Maybe just W of Geelong - along Hamilton Hwy with a N-S option handy ... > > Stay tuned. Harald > > -- > _________________________________________________________________________ > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 > PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > _________________________________________________________________________ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ --- Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p217-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.147.217] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 16:52:00 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Last years US Chase - Is this us? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, David and I believe that the stills captured here by Sam Barricklow were of our car when we were reversing out near the railway line. You can tell I am the driver - look at the level difference between myself and David Croan... http://www.k5kj.net/010529/01052930.jpg http://www.k5kj.net/010529/01052932.jpg They are from this page http://www.k5kj.net/010529.htm Cheers I found it quite funny. ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Webmaster at kgl900.com" To: "Aus Weather" Subject: aus-wx: ok here it comes Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 17:12:19 +1100 Organization: www.kgl900.com X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Heavy rain just hit Winchelsea (Near Geelong) at 1712 AEDST Stew +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: SSY rainfall FCST (final score) syn Ken vs RNG's Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 16:08:46 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I sniff a fight... but anyway: It seems to me that the question was whether or not Ken's forecast for rain was better than chance. Using a few particular random number sequences does not represent chance, unless you are going to use many hundreds or thousands of such sequences and average the results. In any event, we now know what the chance for rain was on this small sample, i.e., being simply the number of rainy days over all days, i.e., 14/31 = 45%. A random forecast for rain at 45% chance would therefore get it right for about 20% of days. Ken managed 4/31 = 13%. Rather unlucky as it happens! Now if you allow his +- 1 day margin you get 7/31 = 23% - but won't this always improve your odds over chance???? (a whopping 2/31 at 45%, i.e., 3% for each rain period forecast in this case - quite a nifty way to give yourself an edge! The more rain periods forecast, the better the edge over chance). I must say from this that I doubt whether Ken's method has any validity whatsoever, even a casual inspection of table reveals little correlation in the rain periods, in fact there is a better inverse correlation. Of course, a much larger sample would obviously give a better picture. Regards, John W. >snip Day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless -------------------------------------------- 03 - - - - - - 04 - - - - - - 05 - - - - R - 06 R R - R - - 07 R R R - - - 08 - - - - - - 09 R - R R R - 10 - - - - - - 11 - - R - - - 12 - - - - - - 13 - R - R - - 14 - R - - - - 15 R - - - - - 16 R - R - - - 17 R - - - - - 18 R - - - - - 19 - - - R - - 20 - R - - - - 21 R - R R - - 22 R - - - - - 23 - - R - - - 24 R R R R - - 25 R R - - - - 26 - R - R - - 27 - R - R - - 28 - R R - R - 29 R - - - - - 30 R - R - R - 31 R - - R - - +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Webmaster at kgl900.com" To: "Aus Weather" Subject: aus-wx: forget it Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 17:17:10 +1100 Organization: www.kgl900.com X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com eh rain ceased at 1716, quick spurt :) More to come I think. Stew +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: RE: aus-wx: VIC storms today To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 17:18:47 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Lindsay typed: > Macca - Don't get too excited about Geelong just at the moment - it looks OK > on radar but its all virga. Still dry as a bone although DP 17. Lindsay > Smail. .... and I am looking W out of the conference room in Celsius House, and I see very nice young towers, and very sick older towers. I am seeing the effects of some CAPE in the absence of good shear which could organise this mess. I am also seeing the effects of a large surface dew point - temperature spread (34/13) in the form of high bases and familiar virga. Some cells are now emerging from the Cu soup W of MML. The seabreeze convergence line near Geelong is throwing up enhanced convection. The ranges are keeping Gippsland free of convection, but with the high dewpoints this region might save its juice for later on (tonight/tomorrow). I suspect that after the first cells put down some cold pools we shall see the organisation of slightly better second-generation convection. Meso-LAPS is increasing the shear later from the SSW, hopefully organising the SW convection first (if present). Cheers, Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: SSY rainfall FCST (final score) syn Ken vs RNG's To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 17:32:39 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > I must say from this that I doubt whether Ken's method has any validity > whatsoever, even a casual inspection of table reveals little correlation in > the rain periods, in fact there is a better inverse correlation. Of course, > a much larger sample would obviously give a better picture. > I'd want at least a year of data to be comfortable in drawing a firm conclusion that Ken's method is of little value, but there has been nothing yet to suggest that it is on what we've seen so far. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: RE: aus-wx: VIC storms today (update) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 17:37:53 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hot spots: * intensifying cell (terrain-aided lifting) over Castlemaine * sea-breeze convergence between Werribee and Avalon contiues to shed cells into the Bay * a line of convection (Anglesea-Winchelsea-...) has a 25 kt barb from 260 pushing into its back side (Colac AWS)! Have a good weekend, Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 17:13:01 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Last years US Chase - Is this us? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com LOL - was it really you? Is it the same car you were driving? AC Jimmy Deguara wrote: > > Hi all, > > David and I believe that the stills captured here by Sam Barricklow were of > our car when we were reversing out near the railway line. You can tell I am > the driver - look at the level difference between myself and David Croan... > > http://www.k5kj.net/010529/01052930.jpg > > http://www.k5kj.net/010529/01052932.jpg > > They are from this page > > http://www.k5kj.net/010529.htm > > Cheers I found it quite funny. > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 17:14:03 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today (update) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Just spoke to Macca again - he saw a funnel about 20mins ago - just a small one, but quite long - I believe he has video of it! He seems to be enjoying himself with the RFBs, updrafts, anvils and mammatus!!! AC Harald Richter wrote: > > Hot spots: > > * intensifying cell (terrain-aided lifting) over Castlemaine > > * sea-breeze convergence between Werribee and Avalon contiues > to shed cells into the Bay > > * a line of convection (Anglesea-Winchelsea-...) has a 25 kt barb > from 260 pushing into its back side (Colac AWS)! > > Have a good weekend, > Harald > > -- > _________________________________________________________________________ > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 > PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > _________________________________________________________________________ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 17:44:47 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today (update) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Macca is just west of Melbourne (I think) and has just reported 1cm hail! AC Harald Richter wrote: > > Hot spots: > > * intensifying cell (terrain-aided lifting) over Castlemaine > > * sea-breeze convergence between Werribee and Avalon contiues > to shed cells into the Bay > > * a line of convection (Anglesea-Winchelsea-...) has a 25 kt barb > from 260 pushing into its back side (Colac AWS)! > > Have a good weekend, > Harald > > -- > _________________________________________________________________________ > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 > PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > _________________________________________________________________________ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 18:00:25 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today (update) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Wow at Melbourne local! The hail got up to 2cm, and Macca just had to go because he had another funnel! AC Harald Richter wrote: > > Hot spots: > > * intensifying cell (terrain-aided lifting) over Castlemaine > > * sea-breeze convergence between Werribee and Avalon contiues > to shed cells into the Bay > > * a line of convection (Anglesea-Winchelsea-...) has a 25 kt barb > from 260 pushing into its back side (Colac AWS)! > > Have a good weekend, > Harald > > -- > _________________________________________________________________________ > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 > PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > _________________________________________________________________________ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: ajax.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 20:36:47 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today (update) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com In Clayton, a SErn suburb of Melbourne, there's been frequent lightning (mainly CC) and thunder activity for the last hour an a half. Currently rain of 20-40mm/hr, although the heaviest stuff looks like it's going to pass to the south. However, I have yet to receive any form of wind gust with this rain, it's been quite still throughout. And the Melbourne local does look impressive! It's a shame cos I really was in work mode today, but now with these storms....argghhhhh. On Fri, 1 Feb 2002, Anthony Cornelius wrote: > Wow at Melbourne local! > > The hail got up to 2cm, and Macca just had to go because he had another > funnel! > Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 19:36:48 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aus-wx: Interesting Weather for the Brisbane ASWA Meeting? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Could see some interesting weather in the afternoon tomorrow (after the Brisbane ASWA meeting). A weakening upper level trough is moving over, it certainly did a nice job of enhancing instability in the western half of the state, tracker speaks for itself that's for certain! A very broad area of -4 to -6 is lying over SW QLD, with a smaller area of -6 to -8 LIs. The upper trough is around -11C at 500mb, -10C 200km north of the border - still not bad. That will is progged to weaken tomorrow, only -8C at 500mb which really isn't much at all. But the instability is progged to be higher, a nice area of -4 to -6 through SE QLD and NE NSW, so there's certainly the instability there. 850 temps are a comfortable 18 to 19C, which is warm, but hopefully should not pose too much of a problem to low-mid 30 temps and low 20 DPs. The surface trough and convergence line should lie through the Downs and into NE NSW and along the coast in NSW. Shear will be the main problem, and may even become thundery rain due to the slackness. 850 winds are confluent (thank God for small mercies!) but 5-10 knots from the W. 700mb is 10-15 knots over SE QLD from the SW...NE NSW a little better, 15-20 knots, which is just passable, but it's still slack at 500mb, westerly at 15-20 knots. But 300mb is much better, 45-50 knots from the WNW. It's not great, but it's certainly not too bad and adequete. Just a shame there wasn't an extra 10 knots in the low-mid levels! If you go higher, at 200mb the shear increases to 55-60 knots. It's a matter of seeing what happens, there's a fair amount of storm development tonight actually in the NW Downs and SW Wide Bay/Burnett. My parents can see lightning every 1-2 seconds to their NW, but that's about 120-140km away. If only it can move east a little, but the shear needs to strenghten. However, it's encouraging to see development from a weakening upper trough. I'm hoping that the higher DPs on the coast will offset the weakening of the upper trough. But a lot will depend on what happens tonight, especially if more cloud builds up! The next Queensland ASWA meeting (first for 2002) will be held this Saturday the 2nd of February. Some of the main features will include: - Showing of video footage (plenty of great storm and supercell days since the last meeting!) - Discussion of the setup of a few of the major storm days - Feature presentation will be "What is a Supercell?" with a discussion and presentation of this topic. - Usual "week in review" and "the week ahead" discussion topics - Recent ASWA affairs Date: Saturday, 2nd of February Time: 10am-2pm Place: "Pixel Components" Unit 9/14 Argon St. Sumner (Brisbane) What to bring? Yourself, photos, videos - $4 for pizza and drinks. -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: ajax.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 22:18:14 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today (update) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com After I posted the message below, the lightning started to go off as an intense squall line came in from the northwest. It gave me spherical hail to 1.5cm in diameter and some strong wind gusts later on, which judging by the trees, seemed around 20-25knots. Since there isn't anything coming in from the northwest currently, I may follow the system to the east. On Fri, 1 Feb 2002, Robert Goler wrote: > > In Clayton, a SErn suburb of Melbourne, there's been frequent lightning > (mainly CC) and thunder activity for the last hour an a half. Currently > rain of 20-40mm/hr, although the heaviest stuff looks like it's going to > pass to the south. However, I have yet to receive any form of wind gust > with this rain, it's been quite still throughout. And the Melbourne local > does look impressive! It's a shame cos I really was in work mode today, > but now with these storms....argghhhhh. > Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Duncan & Mandy" To: Subject: aus-wx: Darwin dryest January on record?? Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 21:01:52 +1030 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I noticed in the local NT newspaper (well, excuse for a newspaper) that Darwin may have had it's dryest January on record? Dunno if this record was broken. Anyone know about this? Quite unusual as the wet seasons up north have had very high rainfall totals in the past few years. After a few storms around Christmas, it's been very dry and pretty warm here in Alice. Hanging out for the first Cyclone to hit NW W.A. (Will this ever happen?) This usually means we get some rain as well. Cheers, Duncan Alice Springs +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Bussy" To: "aussie-weather" Subject: aus-wx: WOW Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 22:25:48 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Lots or reds on radar through central vic and around Melbourne at present. All stars here at present and a quite warm 30C still.
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 22:57:00 +1100 From: Greg Browning X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 (Macintosh; I; PPC) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Spectacular light-show in Melbourne X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 Feb 2002 11:58:46.0552 (UTC) FILETIME=[CDA05980:01C1AB17] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All, What an evening we have had in Melb. For the last 2.5 hours I have been treated to one of the most electrically-active TS systems I can remember. As it so happened, I was out chasing in the Ballarat to Castlemaine region (West-central Vic) and only witnessed short-lived weak cells over a period of a few hours, while noting the bulk of the development seemed to be closer to Melbourne. While following a weak cell along the Western Hwy. it became apparent that cells were becoming more organised closer to Melb. so I followed one promising looking cell right through to the SE suburbs where I live. Within 10 minutes of arrival a near stationary cell to the west started to put out regular in-cloud lightning with the occasional CG. Soon thereafter cells were popping up all around. Some were dominated by very frequent CC strikes(av. about 1 per 3 seconds) while others were pumping out some very healthy, and close, CGs. The cells were all slow moving and easy to video as the lightning seemed to emanate from the same place for several minutes at a time. Also experienced was some heavy rainfall (not quite severe) and a couple of 25+ knot gusts. All in all one of the most memorable Melb storms I've had the pleasure to enjoy, Regards, Greg Browning Mulgrave, Vic +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 22:13:13 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aus-wx: Nick Sykes Caught 5M CG on Video, Sparks and all!!! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all! Posting this for Nick Sykes (virga-wx to some), he captured a CG on video about five metres from the car! On the video you see that the car gets showered in sparks from the CG!!!!! Amazing!!! I've uploaded it for him at: http://www.downunderchase.com/temp/power.mpg (PS - if you don't like profanities I suggest your sound is muted). He's gone out chasing again now, all happening in Melbourne!!! -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Damien Howes" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting Weather for the Brisbane ASWA Meeting? Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 22:32:16 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.3018.1300 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com G'day Anthony + All. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Anthony Cornelius" To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" Sent: Friday, February 01, 2002 7:36 PM Subject: aus-wx: Interesting Weather for the Brisbane ASWA Meeting? > Hi all, > > Could see some interesting weather in the afternoon tomorrow (after the > Brisbane ASWA meeting). A weakening upper level trough is moving over, > it certainly did a nice job of enhancing instability in the western half > of the state, tracker speaks for itself that's for certain! . I was at Charleville today and the storms kicked off around midday. They were very lightning active with frequent CGs. Also they were quite high based i.e around 7-8000' which made the ground strikes all the more impressive. Unfortunately, and as is often the case with an upper trough the decaying cells left behind copious amounts of cirrus and altocu/altostratus which just sat and killed off the heating. The subsequent cells I passed east of Charleville were weaker and more isolated. The cell that Anthony's parents were watching had a particularly good overshoot around 7pm and, as mentioned, was quite lightning active and also seemed to be quite high based. Lets hope the upper trough can give us in SE Qld some happy tomorrow. Damien Howes +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: dencot1 at aol.com Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 07:50:18 EST Subject: aus-wx: Re: aus-wx here we go again To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: AOL 6.0 for Windows XP AU sub 50 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com All
11.45 edt bayswater vic
good cell moving in here      cc & cg  I think this will be better than the one an hour ago . Looks like its moving W N W  . Have fun  !!!

Dennis Cottle

From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 02 Feb 02 00:50:46 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Spectacular light-show in Melbourne Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Greg! 01 Feb 02 22:57, you wrote to All: GB> All in all one of the most memorable Melb storms I've had the pleasure GB> to enjoy, While I didn't go anywhere, I have to agree with this comment. It was a very enjoyable storm to watch. :) Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 02 Feb 02 00:29:43 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today (update) Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Anthony! 01 Feb 02 18:00, you wrote to All: AC> The hail got up to 2cm, and Macca just had to go because he had AC> another funnel! Well, it was an interesting evening. Started around 18:30 with two cells on either side of here, one in the SW over Sunshine, which was particularly intenst and one to the NE. During the next 20 minutes or so, the cells linked up and stayed overhead, with the result of steadiuly intensifying rain. Finally, they moved SE with the prevailing movement and formed a broad red line west of the city on the radar. Later, a cell appeared out of nowhere about 5km to the west and intensified rapidly. This one produced a CG within 100m, before moving east and dumping on the northern suburbs. At 22:15, I went outside for a satellite pass. Wx here was partly cloudy, but the eastern sky was full of spectacular CCc from the cells which were now around the Lilydale area. Finally the last cell to arrive came around 23:15. It started out spectacular, but rapidly petered out overhead. WX notes from other places (courtesy of IRLP) Sydney - showers all day (boring :) ). Mildura - No storms, but they did report the Swan Hill storm which apparently damaged a few rooves. Darwin - No storms up till 1930 CST Well, been camped out on the #weather IRC channel all night - good fun when there's something happening. Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: dencot1 at aol.com Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 09:14:15 EST Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: AOL 6.0 for Windows XP AU sub 50 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all
cg just hit about 90 Mts from where I was standing --wow---flash bang !
Just came inside for a breather

Dennis Cottle  1.10 am  2/02/2002
From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Darwin dryest January on record?? Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 01:20:22 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Duncan, Certainly been dry in Brisbane too. At Mt. Crosby we have had only one rain day for the whole of January. 33mm on that day was good, but dismal compared to Jan mean of 10 wet days & 125mm. John. >snip I noticed in the local NT newspaper (well, excuse for a newspaper) that Darwin may have had it's dryest January on record? Dunno if this record was broken. Anyone know about this? Quite unusual as the wet seasons up north have had very high rainfall totals in the past few years. After a few storms around Christmas, it's been very dry and pretty warm here in Alice. Hanging out for the first Cyclone to hit NW W.A. (Will this ever happen?) This usually means we get some rain as well. Cheers, Duncan Alice Springs +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [198.142.129.94] From: "Karl Lijnders" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Spectacular light-show in Melbourne Date: Sat, 02 Feb 2002 02:41:19 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 Feb 2002 15:41:20.0041 (UTC) FILETIME=[E4ED1190:01C1AB36] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I was pleased with the light show, 13 Flangs in 2 hours was not bad, certainly gave that neck hair a chance to stretch its legs, some of the intracloud lightning was spectacular. Any reports on spectacular events in the surrounding areas of the metro area, I think we copped the best of it today. Karl >From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Spectacular light-show in Melbourne >Date: 02 Feb 02 00:50:46 +1000 > >Hello Greg! > >01 Feb 02 22:57, you wrote to All: > > GB> All in all one of the most memorable Melb storms I've had the >pleasure > GB> to enjoy, > >While I didn't go anywhere, I have to agree with this comment. It was a >very >enjoyable storm to watch. :) > >Tony, VK3JED > >.. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW >-- >|Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 >|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au >| >| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 02:26:25 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: Re: Ken vs the RNG's - update Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-From_: ken at weatherman.co.nz Fri Feb 1 19:22:16 2002 From: "Ken Ring" To: "Carl Smith" Cc: "Harald Richter \(by way of Carl Smith\)" , Subject: Re: Ken vs the RNG's - update Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 22:19:36 +1300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 WHY THE RNG PROCESS DOES NOT IN ANY WAY COMMENT ON THE LUNAR METHOD Hi folks Well, what an interesting exercise. I came bottom in the eyes of the meteorology world and top in the eyes of lunar sympathisers. Hardly surprising. As scientists and mathematicians we would all have to agree that the sample was a bit small to be taken seriously. If I had known the rigors of examination that were going to be involved I would have taken a bit more time and accuracy. As it was, the dates I gave Carl were only casually in conversation and in answer to a question. Whilst interesting in itself, the RNG examination had very little whatever to do with actual weather forecasting. Noticeably absent were any other predictions to stack against mine. Where was the test of my methods vs those of mainstream science? I was stacked against a statistical machine, not a person. I WAS THE ONLY PLAYER! What kind of a contest is that? Anyone can see that ALL the RNG process ACTUALLY did was comment in hindsight on MY work...excuse me...but isn't the idea of forecasting to look right ahead with nothing to help you except your own forecasting method, not sideways with a critical eye to see what others are doing? It was equivalent to Lennox Lewis shadow-boxing and a statistical machine analysing his moves and coming out with a reason why he wasn't heavyweight champion of the world. The only RNG program I'd sit up and take notice of is the one designed to go AHEAD. So, if ANYONE who doubts my lunar method is up to it, I propose the only REAL test. Let Harald(or any non-lunarist) and myself set out, independently, a daily rain forecast for February (or any other month) ahead for Sydney. My opponent can use standard meteorological methodology including any RNG process that he/she wants, and I the moon phases to come, and let's see what we all think is in store. We can both submit our projections to Carl, who started this ball rolling and whom I think we can all trust to be fair. So what do you say, Harald and co-dissenters? How good really are you all at this weather business? Or do you just sit back and find mathematical ways to find fault with the methods of others? Because that's ALL you've contributed thus far to this lunar methodology debate. I'm ready and raring to go. Either way it will stop the speculation about the lunar method. If I come out with a higher number of real-life hits than my opponent then lunar forecasting accuracy is to be respected. If I don't then I will concede defeat. BUT..if no one accepts this real-life challenge then clearly I win by default. sincerely Ken Ring www.predictweather.com ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Lyle Pakula" To: "aus-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Goodbye Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 09:54:59 -0800 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Everyone, Well it has been some time since I posted to this group, mainly due to my increasing work load related to my research. I do still read the occasional interesting thread but at the moment I really don't have the time to sift through all the emails. Hence, it is with a slightly heavy heart that I am going to sign off but be asured, I'll be back one day. Thanks for the stories, thanks for the education and most of all, thanks for letting me know I wasn't the only weather crazy nut in Australia :) Take it easy, Lyle | - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- -- - - | | Graduate Research Assistant /\ . Department of Atmospheric Science _ / \ . Colorado State University / \ / \ ph: +1 (970) 491 7785 / \/~~~~~~\/\ . fax: +1 (970) 491 8166 /~~~~/ / \ email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu / / / \ web: http://reef.atmos.colostate.edu/lyle/ / \ . +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Peter Matters" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Spectacular light-show in Melbourne Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 08:53:05 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi, After watching everyone else's fun for 3hrs, my turn came at 12.30 when I was woken by a Flang!! Lightening was going off everywhere every few seconds with continuous thunder. Most of the lightning was reflective(couldn't see any strokes), and it lasted for an hour. What a way to wake up!! Peter(didjman) ----- Original Message ----- From: "Greg Browning" To: Sent: Friday, February 01, 2002 10:57 PM Subject: aus-wx: Spectacular light-show in Melbourne > Hi All, > > What an evening we have had in Melb. For the last 2.5 hours I have been > treated to one of the most electrically-active TS systems I can > remember. As it so happened, I was out chasing in the Ballarat to > Castlemaine region (West-central Vic) and only witnessed short-lived > weak cells over a period of a few hours, while noting the bulk of the > development seemed to be closer to Melbourne. While following a weak > cell along the Western Hwy. it became apparent that cells were becoming > more organised closer to Melb. so I followed one promising looking cell > right through to the SE suburbs where I live. Within 10 minutes of > arrival a near stationary cell to the west started to put out regular > in-cloud lightning with the occasional CG. Soon thereafter cells were > popping up all around. Some were dominated by very frequent CC > strikes(av. about 1 per 3 seconds) while others were pumping out some > very healthy, and close, CGs. The cells were all slow moving and easy to > video as the lightning seemed to emanate from the same place for several > minutes at a time. Also experienced was some heavy rainfall (not quite > severe) and a couple of 25+ knot gusts. > > All in all one of the most memorable Melb storms I've had the pleasure > to enjoy, > > Regards, > Greg Browning > Mulgrave, Vic > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 02 Feb 2002 08:53:41 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Next NSW ASWA Meeting Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The next NSW ASWA Meeting will be held on Saturday February 16. Venue - My place! 7 Sym Avenue Burwood, Sydney. Time - Midday till whenever. It will be more of a BBQ/Video afternoon, and that evening, we plan to see a movie at the westfield shopping centre 5 minutes walk away. Bring some sausages/steak/drinks etc. Also bring some storm video/documentarys/photos/anything. The video of Twister the movie will also be shown. Hope to see you there! Matthew Smith and Matthew Pearce NSW ASWA State Reps. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Chris Daley" To: Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms, Alt. title; Wooooooooo, Crikey that was close. Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 12:20:54 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Guys, Girls and statically charged photographers, I don't know what to say, I am lost for words. I have never, ever, in my entire 30 odd years of walking this earth, seen anything as spectacular as last night. I usually sit here at my computer cursing about how good you guys in NSW and Qld get it during storm season, but I don't care now cause last night will last me for a long time. I am sitting here at the moment taking a break from going through my video from last night, waiting to pick up my photo's from last night and watching Twister. My day started at about 4:00pm yesterday, looking at the radar and e-mail's to the list and otherwise not doing much. Had a bit of a look outside at about 6:00pm and thought it was looking promising, so the decision was made to go for a quick scout around Mooroolbark to see what was about. Got my stuff together and was out the door at around 7'ish (wasn't in a hurry, didn't really look like it would do much from here) and headed up Manchester Rd. Pulled over at the horse paddock's near Chirnside park to have a look at the cell over Melbourne and while it looked quite nice, there wasn't much static on AM and it looked like it would just pass with some heavy showers. So I headed over to Mooroolbark Rd as I had seen a very nice anvil out to the NE which looked like it was over Eildon way. By the time I got to the Mooroolbark Rd - Maroondah Hwy intersection I could see that the anvil had broken free of it's base and was breaking down, so back to Manchester Rd to shoot a bit of video and go home for dinner. I ended up getting dinner at about midnight. By the time I got back to Manchester Rd, the static on AM was constant and that's no exageration. In the first half hour or so, there weren't many CG's or visible CC's/Sheet, but I thought I would stick it out for another half hour or so. Well, at the end of that half hour I had no intention at all of leaving. I was watching 3 cells, one to the S of me which was pretty active, one over the CBD which was going off tap and a cell that was forming to the NW over the Sunbury/Tullamarine area. I was watching anvil crawlers from the cell over Melbourne going across to the anvil of the cell in the south then back over the top of where I was standing, a round trip of approx. 120k/m I would estimate. The cell to the south and the one over Melbourne seemed to merge into one and then all hell broke loose. Massive CG's, CC's, almost constant sheet lightning and it lasted for hours. I had my video camera pointed towards Ringwood almost the whole time as that's where most of the action was and I was not disappointed. I counted possibly 5 powerflashes that looked like they might have come from the sub-station in Ringwood off Hetherdale Rd, I haven't seen any report's of blackouts or anything, but there were CG's hitting in one particular spot and sending up massive green glows. The cell then started to move over towards where I was and gave us a few nice close strikes, which would have been fantastic if it wasn't for the power lines I was standing under. As the main cell that was over Melbourne passed over it gave us a nice heavy shower with some small 3-4mm hail and more anvil crawlers and after it cleared and started moving to the SE, another cell was building in the NW with lots more lightning. I was out for about 4 and a half hours all up, all at the same place and saw everything I could have wanted to. The only problem is that we have probably used up all our static allowance for the next 2 years. Jane, how long will the Pancake Parlour let us use the room for? Ithink we will have about 45 hours of video to watch at the next meeting. :-) WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Chris +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 02 Feb 2002 12:50:14 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms, Alt. title; Wooooooooo, Crikey that was close. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Wow Chris ! great report Sounds like one hell of a night in melbourne, ive heard heaps from Jane/Macca/Nick/Chris etc from last night. (4.2cm hail reported by Clyve!) Cant wait to see the pics! Radar was very tasty at times with plenty of red in cells as they tracked SE. Great to see the storm drought broken down there recently :) Matt Smith Chris Daley wrote: > Guys, Girls and statically charged photographers, > > I don't know what to say, I am lost for words. > > I have never, ever, in my entire 30 odd years of walking this earth, seen > anything as spectacular as last night. > > I usually sit here at my computer cursing about how good you guys in NSW and > Qld get it during storm season, but I don't care now cause last night will > last me for a long time. > > I am sitting here at the moment taking a break from going through my video > from last night, waiting to pick up my photo's from last night and watching > Twister. > > My day started at about 4:00pm yesterday, looking at the radar and e-mail's > to the list and otherwise not doing much. Had a bit of a look outside at > about 6:00pm and thought it was looking promising, so the decision was made > to go for a quick scout around Mooroolbark to see what was about. > > Got my stuff together and was out the door at around 7'ish (wasn't in a > hurry, didn't really look like it would do much from here) and headed up > Manchester Rd. Pulled over at the horse paddock's near Chirnside park to > have a look at the cell over Melbourne and while it looked quite nice, there > wasn't much static on AM and it looked like it would just pass with some > heavy showers. So I headed over to Mooroolbark Rd as I had seen a very nice > anvil out to the NE which looked like it was over Eildon way. By the time I > got to the Mooroolbark Rd - Maroondah Hwy intersection I could see that the > anvil had broken free of it's base and was breaking down, so back to > Manchester Rd to shoot a bit of video and go home for dinner. I ended up > getting dinner at about midnight. > > By the time I got back to Manchester Rd, the static on AM was constant and > that's no exageration. In the first half hour or so, there weren't many > CG's or visible CC's/Sheet, but I thought I would stick it out for another > half hour or so. Well, at the end of that half hour I had no intention at > all of leaving. I was watching 3 cells, one to the S of me which was pretty > active, one over the CBD which was going off tap and a cell that was forming > to the NW over the Sunbury/Tullamarine area. I was watching anvil crawlers > from the cell over Melbourne going across to the anvil of the cell in the > south then back over the top of where I was standing, a round trip of > approx. 120k/m I would estimate. > > The cell to the south and the one over Melbourne seemed to merge into one > and then all hell broke loose. Massive CG's, CC's, almost constant sheet > lightning and it lasted for hours. > > I had my video camera pointed towards Ringwood almost the whole time as > that's where most of the action was and I was not disappointed. I counted > possibly 5 powerflashes that looked like they might have come from the > sub-station in Ringwood off Hetherdale Rd, I haven't seen any report's of > blackouts or anything, but there were CG's hitting in one particular spot > and sending up massive green glows. > > The cell then started to move over towards where I was and gave us a few > nice close strikes, which would have been fantastic if it wasn't for the > power lines I was standing under. > > As the main cell that was over Melbourne passed over it gave us a nice heavy > shower with some small 3-4mm hail and more anvil crawlers and after it > cleared and started moving to the SE, another cell was building in the NW > with lots more lightning. > > I was out for about 4 and a half hours all up, all at the same place and saw > everything I could have wanted to. > > The only problem is that we have probably used up all our static allowance > for the next 2 years. > > Jane, how long will the Pancake Parlour let us use the room for? Ithink we > will have about 45 hours of video to watch at the next meeting. :-) > > WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! > > Chris > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Chris Daley" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms, Alt. title; Wooooooooo, Crikey that was close. Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 13:02:47 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Matt, Thanks, only my second published report, I hope I am putting in all the important info. I will be getting some frame grabs from my video off to Jane to put up on the web site tonight hopefully and depending on how my photo's come out, I will probably do some scans too. Chris ----- Original Message ----- From: Matthew Smith To: Sent: Saturday, February 02, 2002 12:50 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms, Alt. title; Wooooooooo, Crikey that was close. > Wow Chris ! great report > > Sounds like one hell of a night in melbourne, ive heard heaps from > Jane/Macca/Nick/Chris etc from last night. (4.2cm hail reported by Clyve!) > Cant wait to see the pics! Radar was very tasty at times with plenty of red in > cells as they tracked SE. > Great to see the storm drought broken down there recently :) > > Matt Smith > > Chris Daley wrote: > > > Guys, Girls and statically charged photographers, > > > > I don't know what to say, I am lost for words. > > > > I have never, ever, in my entire 30 odd years of walking this earth, seen > > anything as spectacular as last night. > > > > I usually sit here at my computer cursing about how good you guys in NSW and > > Qld get it during storm season, but I don't care now cause last night will > > last me for a long time. > > > > I am sitting here at the moment taking a break from going through my video > > from last night, waiting to pick up my photo's from last night and watching > > Twister. > > > > My day started at about 4:00pm yesterday, looking at the radar and e-mail's > > to the list and otherwise not doing much. Had a bit of a look outside at > > about 6:00pm and thought it was looking promising, so the decision was made > > to go for a quick scout around Mooroolbark to see what was about. > > > > Got my stuff together and was out the door at around 7'ish (wasn't in a > > hurry, didn't really look like it would do much from here) and headed up > > Manchester Rd. Pulled over at the horse paddock's near Chirnside park to > > have a look at the cell over Melbourne and while it looked quite nice, there > > wasn't much static on AM and it looked like it would just pass with some > > heavy showers. So I headed over to Mooroolbark Rd as I had seen a very nice > > anvil out to the NE which looked like it was over Eildon way. By the time I > > got to the Mooroolbark Rd - Maroondah Hwy intersection I could see that the > > anvil had broken free of it's base and was breaking down, so back to > > Manchester Rd to shoot a bit of video and go home for dinner. I ended up > > getting dinner at about midnight. > > > > By the time I got back to Manchester Rd, the static on AM was constant and > > that's no exageration. In the first half hour or so, there weren't many > > CG's or visible CC's/Sheet, but I thought I would stick it out for another > > half hour or so. Well, at the end of that half hour I had no intention at > > all of leaving. I was watching 3 cells, one to the S of me which was pretty > > active, one over the CBD which was going off tap and a cell that was forming > > to the NW over the Sunbury/Tullamarine area. I was watching anvil crawlers > > from the cell over Melbourne going across to the anvil of the cell in the > > south then back over the top of where I was standing, a round trip of > > approx. 120k/m I would estimate. > > > > The cell to the south and the one over Melbourne seemed to merge into one > > and then all hell broke loose. Massive CG's, CC's, almost constant sheet > > lightning and it lasted for hours. > > > > I had my video camera pointed towards Ringwood almost the whole time as > > that's where most of the action was and I was not disappointed. I counted > > possibly 5 powerflashes that looked like they might have come from the > > sub-station in Ringwood off Hetherdale Rd, I haven't seen any report's of > > blackouts or anything, but there were CG's hitting in one particular spot > > and sending up massive green glows. > > > > The cell then started to move over towards where I was and gave us a few > > nice close strikes, which would have been fantastic if it wasn't for the > > power lines I was standing under. > > > > As the main cell that was over Melbourne passed over it gave us a nice heavy > > shower with some small 3-4mm hail and more anvil crawlers and after it > > cleared and started moving to the SE, another cell was building in the NW > > with lots more lightning. > > > > I was out for about 4 and a half hours all up, all at the same place and saw > > everything I could have wanted to. > > > > The only problem is that we have probably used up all our static allowance > > for the next 2 years. > > > > Jane, how long will the Pancake Parlour let us use the room for? Ithink we > > will have about 45 hours of video to watch at the next meeting. :-) > > > > WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! > > > > Chris > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [144.132.45.8] From: "Liam Domanski" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne last night Date: Sat, 02 Feb 2002 16:58:04 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 02 Feb 2002 05:58:05.0082 (UTC) FILETIME=[94B7D7A0:01C1ABAE] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all. What a fantastic day/night!!!!!!!!!!! Started with a chat with Macca on the net, then a drive to Calder Park raceway to see a small funnel. Then follow a nice cell back home to Donvale with some nice heavy rain. A little later on I took a short drive to Doncaster shoppingtown and took some FANTASTIC video footage of the storms as they crossed the city. Some nice power flashes lighting up the ground in a greeny red flash. I stayed there for several hours until the cells passed by, then followed them towards the SE suburbs and got slammed by golf ball sized hail (very sparse though). Luckily the car was fine. Back home for a swim in the still 30 deg plus heat (this was at 11:30 or so), only to be hit by yet MORE HUGE STORMS!!!!! Got some great lightning footage out my bedroom door. Lots of anvil crawlers and ribbons of lighting crossing the sky, and a CG hitting a tree only 200m away!!!! FLANG!!!!! INCREDIBLE!!!! Lets hope for some more storms of this calibre very soon. Liam _________________________________________________________________ Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Ken Ring" To: Subject: aus-wx: WHY THE RNG PROCESS DOES NOT IN ANY WAY COMMENT ON THE LUNAR METHOD Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 11:27:04 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi folks Well, what an interesting exercise. I came bottom in the eyes of the meteorology world and top in the eyes of lunar sympathisers. Hardly surprising. As scientists and mathematicians we would all have to agree that the sample was a bit small to be taken seriously. If I had known the rigors of examination that were going to be involved I would have taken a bit more time and accuracy. As it was, the dates I gave Carl were only casually in conversation and in answer to a question. I didn't even cover the whole month. Carl mentioned it on your list and the pirhanas moved in. Whilst interesting in itself, the RNG examination had very little whatever to do with actual weather forecasting. Noticeably absent were any other predictions to stack against mine. Where was the test of my methods vs those of mainstream science? I was stacked against a statistical machine, not a person. I WAS THE ONLY PLAYER! What kind of a contest is that? Anyone can see that ALL the RNG process ACTUALLY did was comment in hindsight on MY opinion...excuse me...but isn't the idea of forecasting to look right ahead with nothing to help you except your own forecasting method, not sideways with a critical eye to see what others are doing? It was equivalent to Lennox Lewis shadow-boxing and a statistical machine analysing his moves and coming out with a reason why he wasn't heavyweight champion of the world. The only RNG program I'd sit up and take notice of is the one designed to go AHEAD. So, if ANYONE who doubts my lunar method is up to it, I propose the only REAL test. Let Harald(or any non-lunarist) and myself set out, independently, a daily rain forecast for February (or any other month) ahead for Sydney. My opponent can use standard meteorological methodology including any RNG process that he/she wants, and I the moon phases to come, and let's see what we all think is in store. We can both submit our projections to Carl, who started this ball rolling and whom I think we can all trust to be fair. So what do you say, Harald and co-dissenters? How good really are you all at this weather business? Or do you just sit back and find mathematical ways to find fault with the methods of others? Because that's ALL you've contributed thus far to this lunar methodology debate. I'm ready and raring to go. Either way it will stop the speculation about the lunar method. If I come out with a higher number of real-life hits than my opponent then lunar forecasting accuracy is to be respected. If I don't then I will concede defeat. BUT..if no one accepts this real-life challenge then clearly I win by default. sincerely Ken Ring www.predictweather.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Fearby" To: Subject: aus-wx: When lightning strikes, satellite map shows where (NASA): Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 18:03:02 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Full Story: http://www.cnn.com/2002/TECH/space/01/30/lightning.strikes.map/index.html Picture: http://www.cnn.com/2002/TECH/space/01/30/lightning.strikes.map/link.large.ex clude.html "Reds and blacks on land depict where strikes occur the most; greens and yellows show middle ranges; and blues and purples represent least active regions. Click to larger image for complete map and key of annual number of strikes per square kilometer. " +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 00:42:59 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List , astro-weather at topica.com From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Fair tactics? - Ken Ring vs the RNGs - final result Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. Now that the time period is over Harald has decided to post the better timed information that he apparently has access to so we now have a record of which days rain actually fell on making my method of distributing observations over 2 days obsolete. I notice that he remined silent while watching me wrestle with inadequate information after I suggested that he post better info if he had it - at the very least he could have pointed me to a better source so I could get it myself. It now appears as if he had a vested interest in keeping it as difficult as possible for me to verify the results using what I consider to be fair methods. Note also that his RNG's are not really random, each having had Rain/Fine proportional fractions factored into them of the order that a meteorologist could reasonably expect the ratio of Rain to Fine days to be in Sydney. I have yet to see a single post supporting the idea that these particular RNG's somehow offer a fair comparison. The Obs on the 18th Harald now puts as "R?" he previously posted as a definite "R". It took Laurier to point out that the Obs was only 0.2mm of rain so was questionable in the context of "rain" days, and it now turns out that Harald was uncertain which day it actually fell on when he gave it a definite "R". It could appear that he was trying to "stack the deck" at the earlier stage of the exercise when he thought no one was monitoring things that closely, although it could also be an honest mistake realised later. In any case I have chosen to regard such a trifling sprinkle as insignificant in the context of this type of forecast and the 18th is a "-" day in my table. In fairness to Ken, the leeway allowance *should* be incorporated into *any* valid daily "hits" type of verification scheme - to do otherwise is not actually testing Kens method but is testing a hypothetical forecast done to someone elses standards. Until such time as meteorologists can come up with their own long range forecasts to an accuracy better than +-1 day they really have no moral right to impose overly stringent standards on long range forecasts made by others and then use contrived artifices masquarading as random forecasts in comparisons in order to try to discredit their work. To fair minded people such tactics could appear to be an abuse of power in order to try to predetermine a particular outcome to serve a vested interest. Now on to the results. I have started from square one with the better quality observations and simplified my methods to suit. Note that the period of the observations included in the revised test are from Jan 3 to 31 for which we now have solid data, and that my application of the leeway excludes any adjacent day where the Fcst is of the same type to avoid some extra 'double' hits that could otherwise occur. This biases the test in favour of the RNG's as the scattering of "R"'s and"-"'s down their columns enables them to potentially get far more hits than Ken because his forecasts are arranged in window blocks that can only get leeway hits at either end. Given that Harald questioned the validity of my methods in his post whilst his own methods are clearly questionable, I am going to elaborate where appropriate, as openness and a fair go are two things I firmly believe in. As a direct comparison to Haralds method where he does not allow Ken's leeway, here are the results of the Hits +-1 day method: Number of Rain Hits +-1 day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood 12 7 6 4 3 0 12 41% 58% 50% 33% 25% 0% 100% Here, Ken comes out a clear winner if we ignore the control "Flood" which hits on all Obs "R"'s by design. The hits are simply determined by using Ken's stated leeway as a rule: if Fcst = "R" then if the Obs = "R" on the same day it is a hit, and if the first case misses then an Obs "R" on the previous day or the following day is a hit provided that the same adjacent Fcst day is not itself "R". The percentage scores displayed as rounded to nearest whole number are determined relative to the Obs score, where if Fcst <= total Obs the result = 100 * (Fcst / Obs) percent, and if Fcst > Obs the result = 100 * (Obs / Fcst) percent. This deals with the small possibility of any Fcst getting too many hits from the application of the leeway rule by penalising it. Given the RNG's tendancy to scatter "R"'s down their column whereas Kens are in "R" window blocks, the RNG's have a significant statistical advantage with the application of the leeway rule as all "R" days can potentially score with leeway if they miss a direct hit, however even with this advantage they did not come up trumps. The result of 58% is probably less than what Ken would himself be happy with, and he has since said that his forecast was somewhat hurried and he was not aware of how much scrutiny it would get. He has generously offered to do a Sydney forecast for any month agreed to as a true test of his abilities. Number of Fine Hits +-1 day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood 17 14 17 15 16 17 0 59% 82% 100% 88% 94% 100% 0% Here RNG#2 is the winner and all RNG's did better than Ken, once again ignoring the control "Drowt". Rule same as above substituting "-" for "R". As noted above, the RNG's have a significant advantage with the application of the leeway rule, and they have all come in with higher scores than Ken. Total Number of Hits +-1 day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood 29 21 23 19 19 17 12 100% 72% 79% 66% 66% 59% 41% In the overall result for this method, RNG#1 is a clear winner with Ken second. The results of the previous two methods are added after first adjusting them for the relative proportions of the Rain and Fine days in the Obs. I feel any Fcst with a similar number of "R" and "-" days to the Obs regardless of timing has some merit, so here is method 2 simply comparing the total number of Fcst "R" or "-" days to the total number of Obs "R" or "-" days. Number of Rain Days Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood 12 10 9 9 4 0 29 41% 83% 75% 75% 33% 0% 41% Here Ken comes out a clear winner. In spite of clever programming factors introduced by Harald, none of the RNG's generated sufficient rain days to beat Ken. Number of Fine Days Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood 17 19 20 20 25 29 0 59% 89% 85% 85% 68% 59% 0% And Ken wins again. Haralds clever programming made all the RNG's come out with numbers that were too high. Total All Days Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 100% 87% 81% 81% 54% 34% 17% And on proportionally distributed percentages Ken wins again. Perhaps if Harald had spent more time playing with his non-random RNG's he could have come up with better numbers. To complete the 3 method set, here are the results of comparing the number of Rain or Fine periods (windows) regardless of timing. Any method that can forecast close to the correct number of windows has some merit. Number of Rain Windows Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood 5 4 8 8 4 0 1 56% 80% 63% 63% 80% 0% 20% Here Ken & RNG#3 are equal winners. Of course, as RNG#3 only forecast 4 days of rain over the entire period, it's result here is diminished in importance. Number of Fine Windows Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood 4 5 9 8 5 1 0 44% 80% 44% 50% 80% 25% 0% And here Ken & RNG#3 are again equal winners. See note above on RNG#3. Total Number of Windows Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood 9 9 17 16 9 1 1 100% 80% 54% 57% 80% 11% 11% And a dead heat again with proportional distribution. See note above on RNG#3. A final score can be determined by simply adding the final total percentages of the 3 sections and dividing by 3, which helps iron out any bias advantages of particular methods: Final Average Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood 100% 80% 72% 68% 66% 35% 23% Here Ken has come out a clear winner taking out the best score when averaged over the 3 analysis methods. It should be noted that Ken claims an accuracy of about 70 percent if his +-1 day leeway is allowed - whilst this sample is too small to draw firm conclusions, it certainly tends to back up his claim with 72% in the Hits +-1 day section, 87% in the number of days section, 80% in the number of windows section, and 80% final average over all 3 methods. If anyone wishes to do their own verifications of Ken's work in his 'home' territory of New Zealand where he is likely to have better accuracy due to familiarity with local conditions, you will find his forecasts for the month ahead for many places in New Zealand on his website at http://www.predictweather.com - click on the "Free Month" link. Full details of my methods will appear on my website soon for anyone that wishes to look into them further. Evaluation Table pasted below. Regards, Carl. Dy Obs Fcst1 Fcst2 Fcst3 Fcst4 Fcst5 Fcst6 Ja Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood 03 - - - - - - R 04 - - - - - - R 05 - - - - R - R 06 R R - R - - R 07 R R R - - - R 08 - - - - - - R 09 - - R R R - R 10 - - - - - - R 11 - - R - - - R 12 - - - - - - R 13 - R - R - - R 14 - R - - - - R 15 R - - - - - R 16 R - R - - - R 17 R - - - - - R 18 - - - - - - R 19 - - - R - - R 20 - R - - - - R 21 R - R R - - R 22 R - - - - - R 23 - - R - - - R 24 R R R R - - R 25 R R - - - - R 26 - R - R - - R 27 - R - R - - R 28 - R R - R - R 29 R - - - - - R 30 R - R - R - R 31 R - - R - - R ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: WHY THE RNG PROCESS DOES NOT IN ANY WAY COMMENT ON THE LUNAR METHOD Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 01:14:10 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Ken Forgive me if I am wrong, but I thought that the RNG's were forecast at the beginning of the month and therefore were a valid future forecast as any other - albeit based upon no meteorological theory. As it happens, I agree with you totally that the RNG's examination was amusing but useless as a way of validating your forecast or method. Any method applied to forecasting must do better than chance to be worthwhile, and obviously that is all that the random numbers are, therefore as a method for forecasting the RNG's are totally useless. But the point surely is to do better than chance. Therefore it is pointless competing against one other single individual who is using some other method, as quite possibly that individual will also be doing no better than chance, i.e., he is only as good as using a single RNG. Either he will do better than you, the same as you or worse than you. But it proves nothing unless you compare favourably against a very great number many of people making similar 'random' forecasts. Of course, the average of all these forecasts will only tend towards chance anyway. So forget that whole exercise and just compare your results against chance. This will need a large data set to be meaningfull - at least a year maybe several unless your method is much better than chance, in which case the trend will show up sooner than later. It follows from this that the only scientifically acceptable proof of your method is a positive comparison against chance over time. I am not a total skeptic as far as the lunar influence is concerned. Far too many things happen to fall on a 28 day cycle to be happenstance. As I have previously pointed out, changes seem to arive on the East coast of Australia on a 7 day cycle for months on end, and 4 x 7 = 28 of course. However, one should not forget that the time of the week for a change in Sydney will naturally be different for Adelaide, Aukland or Perth gievn the Eastward travel time. Curiously, the 7 day cycle has recently broken down and we are in limbo currently. And it is raining at Mt. Crosby for only the second time this year. Yet just 150km South of here in Lismore NSW, they have had 9 days straight of good rain. I wonder if your method can accomodate such variation over short distances. With regard to scientific methods employed by the BoM, currently the best we can do is 4 to 5 days ahead with any certainty. It is doubtfull that we will ever achieve better than 10 days ahead. This is explained by a branch of science called Chaos theory which allows for an insigificant event to initiate a chain of sucessively larger events which eventually causes a significant event. Because our best computer models cannot know about or predict insignificant events - therefore there will always be future significant events which cannot be predicted. And the further you look ahead the less predictable it becomes. We have had for many years a celebrated long range forecaster in this country, Lennox Walker by name, however he has always forecast seasonal trends rather than individual events, based largely on similarity of weather patterns in past experience. But as with clairvoyants, folk tend to remember the few spectacular successes and not the many failures. Sydney is a good location for test purposes, as it really has no distinct wet season with fairly even rainfall distribution throughout the year. We also have many years of data on record, thus the mean annual number of wet days is known with some certainty, i.e., it may be assumed that the chance of rain on any given day is known with some certainty. So here is my challenge to you: Apply your method seriously and make a full 12 month forecast for Sydney and let us see how it compares against chance over a full 12 months. And no +- leeway please, as that defeats the objective by considerably improving your odds. To make it interesting, lets put a slab (24 cans) of Steinbeck on table that you cannot do better than 1% outside chance. Regards, John (recently annointed Piranha) >snip Hi folks Well, what an interesting exercise. I came bottom in the eyes of the meteorology world and top in the eyes of lunar sympathisers. Hardly surprising. As scientists and mathematicians we would all have to agree that the sample was a bit small to be taken seriously. If I had known the rigors of examination that were going to be involved I would have taken a bit more time and accuracy. As it was, the dates I gave Carl were only casually in conversation and in answer to a question. I didn't even cover the whole month. Carl mentioned it on your list and the pirhanas moved in. Whilst interesting in itself, the RNG examination had very little whatever to do with actual weather forecasting. Noticeably absent were any other predictions to stack against mine. Where was the test of my methods vs those of mainstream science? I was stacked against a statistical machine, not a person. I WAS THE ONLY PLAYER! What kind of a contest is that? Anyone can see that ALL the RNG process ACTUALLY did was comment in hindsight on MY opinion...excuse me...but isn't the idea of forecasting to look right ahead with nothing to help you except your own forecasting method, not sideways with a critical eye to see what others are doing? It was equivalent to Lennox Lewis shadow-boxing and a statistical machine analysing his moves and coming out with a reason why he wasn't heavyweight champion of the world. The only RNG program I'd sit up and take notice of is the one designed to go AHEAD. So, if ANYONE who doubts my lunar method is up to it, I propose the only REAL test. Let Harald(or any non-lunarist) and myself set out, independently, a daily rain forecast for February (or any other month) ahead for Sydney. My opponent can use standard meteorological methodology including any RNG process that he/she wants, and I the moon phases to come, and let's see what we all think is in store. We can both submit our projections to Carl, who started this ball rolling and whom I think we can all trust to be fair. So what do you say, Harald and co-dissenters? How good really are you all at this weather business? Or do you just sit back and find mathematical ways to find fault with the methods of others? Because that's ALL you've contributed thus far to this lunar methodology debate. I'm ready and raring to go. Either way it will stop the speculation about the lunar method. If I come out with a higher number of real-life hits than my opponent then lunar forecasting accuracy is to be respected. If I don't then I will concede defeat. BUT..if no one accepts this real-life challenge then clearly I win by default. sincerely Ken Ring www.predictweather.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 02:08:20 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: SSY rainfall FCST (final score) Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Harald and All. >I do realise that the verification methodology can be improved, but if your >rainfall forecast goal _were_ simply to predict rain/no rain days for the >point location YSSY, this simple method is an acceptable start. Not quite so - it takes no account of Kens requested +-1 day leeway - see http://www.predictweather.com/freemonth.html to check that he does indeed ask for this leeway. >I find it remarkable that the "inverse" of Ken's forecast (replace >"-" by "R", and "R" by "-") would have scored better (15/28) than Ken's >actual forecast. That tells me that _any_ verification scheme that >has Ken's forecast miraculously come out on top is suspicious. Any verification scheme that denies the leeway parameters built in to the forecast is suspicious by design. The leeway does weight the forecast in favour of a hit from a Fcst "R" to an Obs "R", increasing the chance from about 44.8 percent (13/29) to about 48.1 percent (13/27) in this sample if you disregard the exclusion rule, and if you allow for exclusions then this reduces to around 46.5 percent. Not really such a great increase. >Regarding "window forecasts", I could shift Ken's rain windows (using eyeball >technology) up or down in my verification table (below), and it doesn't >make his forecast look any better. The forecast simply doesn't >relate well to the obs! Granted Kens forecast does not match that well in terms of timing, however in simple terms of presenting as blocks of "R"s and "-"'s without regard to precise timing it is a far better match to the Obs which also present as blocks of "R"'s and "-"'s than any of the scattered results of your RNG's according to my eyeballs. > >Carl wrote: > >> complete while my method still requires another 2 days due to the rainfall >> distribution method and the +-1 day leeway. > >My method looks at 5...30 min METARS, requiring no time-weighted >distributions >of 24h rainfall totals. Time-weighted 24h rain distrinution is a >temporally smoothing >approach and is not optimal in Sydney's summertime _convective_ rainfall >regime, >where rain is more likely to fall in short bursts. It would have been a good gesture on your part to share these observations with the list on a daily basis or at the very least least point to where they were able to be obtained - I did suggest that you post the information daily. Pointing out the obvious weakness of the approach I took in the absense of better information whilst holding back information until now that could have made my task a lot easier easier speaks for itself. >> I look forward to Harald's post of any conclusions he may wish to draw from >> his method. > >Harald wishes to point out the following: Despite the obvious >shortcomings of the >(- -;R R) verification methodology, a truly skillfull forecast >methodology should >have at least beaten some of the RNGs (if not all). The RNG's were not really that random, each having Rain/NoRain proportional equations related to quite reasonable expectations of the proportions in the observations built in to them - they are more a measure of your skill at contrivance than a fair so called random comparison to measure Kens long range forecasting skills. When it comes to actual forecasting skills rather than toys, I did not see a single day of rain or no rain that was forecasted longer range by you, which is a measure of your skills at long range forecasting. >I see no point to engage in >a more complex verification methodology at this point, which would have to >take into account temporal AND SPATIAL rainfall distribution patterns _and_ >rainfall amounts. You may not see the point, however I do see a quite valid point in developing adequate methodology to assess long range forecasts, and I suspect that at least some others who do not have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo may also see the value in this. The results using the methodology I have developed so far have been posted. >Harald Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 10:02:38 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, 10.5 hours of action Friday, and another 5 hours Saturday (including 950kms, 1 kangaroo with a very bad headache, a snake doing the twist & a LARGE tree across the road.....) Saturday I got up to Tarcutta following a system that first made its prescence known with a cell near Euroa which was responsible for the anvil that went off to the ENE over the ranges - watching it propagate NE, as well as create storms along its outflow boundary (**all** very lightning active!!) This was a fantastic learning experience about storm dynamics ...how many cells? I gave up counting after 6. I terrified truckies near Wang by having the video on the tripod videoing a storm (from the Stormchaser's Emergency Lane) to the SE over the ranges & discovered that you don't annoy members of a particular Motorcycle Club like the bird at the servo did in Tarcutta!!!! The first few images of Friday's storms are up - there are still video grabs & lots of pics to come of both Friday & Saturday..... http://www.stormchasers.au.com/01_02_02.htm The last 3 images are of the cell that dumped hail on the Melbourne CBD from the SW. -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 11:07:15 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Images from yesterday's chase through northeast Victoria & southern NSW are here http://www.stormchasers.au.com/02_02_02.htm The last image is of the cell near Hume Weir that Nick Sykes has images up at http://www.pbase.com/njsykes/feb_3&browse=Y Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 11:00:39 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: Fwd: Re: aus-wx: WHY THE RNG PROCESS DOES NOT IN ANY WAY COMMENT ON THE LUNAR METHOD Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-From_: ken at weatherman.co.nz Sun Feb 3 10:19:51 2002 From: "Ken Ring" To: "John Woodbridge \(by way of Carl Smith\)" Cc: "Carolyn Egan" , "Harald" , , "Carl Smith" Subject: Re: aus-wx: WHY THE RNG PROCESS DOES NOT IN ANY WAY COMMENT ON THE LUNAR METHOD Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 13:31:16 +1300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 Hi John Thanks for the response to my challenge. I will answer you point for point as best I can. > Forgive me if I am wrong, but I thought that the RNG's were forecast at the > beginning of the month and therefore were a valid future forecast as any > other - albeit based upon no meteorological theory. You are forgiven. Anyone can flip a coin but that doesn't make him a longrange weather forecaster. But in the absence of anything else forthcoming from the BoM in excess of 5 days, perhaps that IS the sorry state of forecasting. Oh dear. > But the point surely is to do better than chance. Therefore it is pointless > competing against one other single individual who is using some other > method, as quite possibly that individual will also be doing no better than > chance, i.e., he is only as good as using a single RNG. Either he will do > better than you, the same as you or worse than you. But it proves nothing > unless you compare favourably against a very great number many of people > making similar 'random' forecasts. Well, I've put out the challenge but no one will accept it. It is the same in this country. The metpeople are chicken. They have even resorted at times to pinching my stuff and parading it as their own. Individuals competing is the only way to prove superiority, otherwise there would be no Olympic competitions. No one says Oh well, they got lucky on the day, chance really rules according to our RNG and we only have a small sample racing anyway so we're not giving them a gold medal. I think you're evading my perfectly reasonable challenge and finding ways to rationalise it. > Of course, the average of all these forecasts will only tend towards chance > anyway. So forget that whole exercise and just compare your results against > chance. This will need a large data set to be meaningfull - at least a year > maybe several unless your method is much better than chance, in which case > the trend will show up sooner than later. It follows from this that the > only scientifically acceptable proof of your method is a positive comparison > against chance over time. No it doesn't follow at all. The acceptable proof of my method is the comparison stacked up against someone else's method and comparing both to obs. The whole chance thing is a red herring. It's worse than nothing because it's a time-waster. Chuck it out mate. > I am not a total skeptic as far as the lunar influence is concerned. Far > too many things happen to fall on a 28 day cycle to be happenstance. As I > have previously pointed out, changes seem to arive on the East coast of > Australia on a 7 day cycle for months on end, and 4 x 7 = 28 of course. Well hold it right there. Isn't a lunar connection obvious? I'd say move out from there and you'll discover a whole lot more. Take the first step, the second and third will follow. The guts of what I am saying is that the moon controls the weather. That's a whole quantum jump from the BoM's claim that the moon has no influence. Even if I am not accurate, that doesn't throw out the fact that the moon may be in control. It just means that in my lifetime and with my limited resources I can't get close to uncovering enough of how to do it to satisfy the punters. But others will follow me and carry it on. > However, one should not forget that the time of the week for a change in > Sydney will naturally be different for Adelaide, Auckland or Perth gievn the > Eastward travel time. Of course. The moon is ever on the move, and winds and pressure zones are monitored by orographic factors. But they are all measurable and therefore the air tides, like sea tides are going to be predictable. > Curiously, the 7 day cycle has recently broken down > and we are in limbo currently. And it is raining at Mt. Crosby for only the > second time this year. Yet just 150km South of here in Lismore NSW, they > have had 9 days straight of good rain. I wonder if your method can > accomodate such variation over short distances. Absoulutely, for the reasons just described. In Auckland my district gets rain on a NWly whereas the rest of the city gets it from NElys. You don't have to go far to get variation. But each area has it's own quirks and these are built into each area's forecast. The moon sets up potentials and the local factors do the rest. In the same way, a kid can go to school with various abilities and the school can make or break him. > With regard to scientific methods employed by the BoM, currently the best we > can do is 4 to 5 days ahead with any certainty. It is doubtful that we > will ever achieve better than 10 days ahead. This is explained by a branch > of science called Chaos theory which allows for an insigificant event to > initiate a chain of sucessively larger events which eventually causes a > significant event. Because our best computer models cannot know about or > predict insignificant events - therefore there will always be future > significant events which cannot be predicted. And the further you look > ahead the less predictable it becomes. No one is interested in 'chance' except weatherforecasters, because the Chaos Theory was invented at Princeton Uni in 1976 to give some respectability to the fact that no one could predict the weather. After that it became a purist exercise in itself and moved away from the forecasting arena. Dressing "I don't know" up in some mathematical respectability never did make it useful. It only makes ignoramuses feel better about themselves. > We have had for many years a celebrated long range forecaster in this > country, Lennox Walker by name, however he has always forecast seasonal > trends rather than individual events, based largely on similarity of weather > patterns in past experience. But as with clairvoyants, folk tend to > remember the few spectacular successes and not the many failures. I am familiar with the Cromhurst Observatory and it seems to me that they have had at least as much success over the years as the BoM. Do you want to do a scientific comparison or are you just dismissing Lennox because he was different? > So here is my challenge to you: Apply your method seriously and make a full > 12 month forecast for Sydney and let us see how it compares against chance > over a full 12 months. And no +- leeway please, as that defeats the > objective by considerably improving your odds. You can't be serious! To put a year's forecast on the table would seriously offend those who have already paid for such a service from me, and who for all I know could be on your subscriber list. I am prepared, as I keep on saying, to put up any month ahead provided that you or anyone else does the same. I don't care either way. I don't have to prove my method works. I KNOW it does. It's you guys who want to see me chopped down. That's why I think you are all too scared to do it because you know you may be shown wanting. This stuff takes guts - and honesty. So far I've seen neither come from anyone on your list except Carl Smith. But I've seen plenty of ducking and diving for cover and hiding behind toys. There's nothing wrong with asking for a +-1 day leeway. Benjamin Franklin asked for the same in his Poor Richard's Almanac. No one took issue with him. Besides, in a competition it benefits both parties the same. I insist on it because it is part of my method, and my method is the point of this whole discussion topic. > To make it interesting, lets put a slab (24 cans) of Steinbeck on table that > you cannot do better than 1% outside chance. No, you'll have to do better than that. Forget the Steinies. Put your forecast on the table and you'll get me interested. What I am sitting on will be the future of weather forecasting. It's too important to compare it to some idiotic dice exercise. All the best Ken www.predictweather.com > Hi folks > Well, what an interesting exercise. I came bottom in the eyes of the > meteorology world and top in the eyes of lunar sympathisers. Hardly > surprising. As scientists and mathematicians we would all have to agree > that the sample was a bit small to be taken seriously. If I had known the > rigors of examination that were going to be involved I would have taken a > bit more time and accuracy. As it was, the dates I gave Carl were only > casually in conversation and in answer to a question. I didn't even cover > the > whole month. Carl mentioned it on your list and the pirhanas moved in. > Whilst interesting in itself, the RNG examination had very little whatever > to do with actual weather forecasting. Noticeably absent were any other > predictions to stack against mine. Where was the test of my methods vs those > of mainstream science? I was stacked against a statistical machine, not a > person. I WAS THE ONLY PLAYER! What kind of a contest is that? > Anyone can see that ALL the RNG process ACTUALLY did was comment in > hindsight on MY opinion...excuse me...but isn't the idea of forecasting to > look > right ahead with nothing to help you except your own forecasting method, not > sideways with a critical eye to see what others are doing? It was equivalent > to Lennox Lewis shadow-boxing and a statistical machine analysing his moves > and coming out with a reason why he wasn't heavyweight champion of the > world. The only RNG program I'd sit up and take notice of is the one > designed to go AHEAD. > So, if ANYONE who doubts my lunar method is up to it, I propose the only > REAL test. Let Harald(or any non-lunarist) and myself set out, > independently, a daily rain forecast for February (or any other month) ahead > for Sydney. My opponent can use standard meteorological methodology > including any RNG process that he/she wants, and I the moon phases to come, > and let's see what we all think is in store. > We can both submit our projections to Carl, who started this ball rolling > and whom I think we can all trust to be fair. > So what do you say, Harald and co-dissenters? How good really are you all at > this weather business? Or do you just sit back and find mathematical ways to > find fault with the methods of others? Because that's ALL you've contributed > thus far to this lunar methodology debate. > I'm ready and raring to go. Either way it will stop the speculation about > the lunar method. If I come out with a higher number of real-life hits than > my opponent then lunar forecasting accuracy is to be respected. If I don't > then I will concede defeat. BUT..if no one accepts this real-life challenge > then clearly I win by default. > sincerely > Ken Ring > www.predictweather.com > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: T.C. off northwest AUS.? Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 12:15:39 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Feb 2002 01:17:40.0227 (UTC) FILETIME=[92BC7530:01C1AC50] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all tropos.
The area of convergence and enhanced convection that has been playing about the Kimberley area over the past 5 or 6 days has finally moved offshore and managed to get its self under a region of good to very good upper divergence,if this system continues to develop we may see one of the better TC's of the season. There are or seems to be two preferred alignments of movement one towards the west, north of the 500hpa to 300hpa ridge or a recurve towards the south southwest, (the upper ridge appears weaker further west), it may then  harass the northwest coast of WA between Exmouth and Port Headland keep an eye on this one.. also there is a small region of enhanced convection west northwest of Thursday Island but this development is under rather weaker upper divergence,another system is apparent well to the west of AUS near to the central Indian ocean at about 10 south. The cloud band extending through SA is also starting to interact with outflow from the developing TC north of Broome this band has some potential as well. regards Clyve H.
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Hail noise. Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 12:49:33 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Feb 2002 01:51:33.0758 (UTC) FILETIME=[4ED0A9E0:01C1AC55] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
How many of you have experienced the different sounds that hail makes on different objects and building material, its not often that you can experience this in a single severe storm. The spectacular thunderstorm/storms that moved over Melbourne on Friday night was such an experience,at first these storms looked like good rather highbased end of the day type stuff with nice photogenic rain shafts, some were back lit by the setting sun, all were remarkably slow moving,also absent was any appreciable shear!,but after 7pm the mid levels were by now very nicely primed and explosive. The Melbourne hail storm evolved near to the back end of a weakening cell that had edged slowly towards the CBD at around 7.05pm, the intensifying updraft was hidden by falling rain encroaching onto the city, after about 10 minutes of moderate rain with very large drops (each drop would probably have put 0.2mm into the gauge) there came a barrage of smaller than pea sized hail, the sound, like small metallic pings..after a few minutes the sound changed to a slightly louder, but with a distinctive increase in the bass level, almost as if someone had turned down the treble and increased the bass control this was associated with larger than pea sized hail. The tempo then suddenly slowed the beat halved as larger and less in number 1cm to 2 cm hail started to make  very noticeable bangs (this symphony of sounds was occurring on the large corrugated roof area of Flinders street railway station..) and then the 1812 overture started ...as the hail fall rate slowed again far less but larger stones pelted the tin roofs with a sound I can only describe as like a 21 gun cannon salute these larger stones sounded incredible, some were shattering making a sound not unlike a cymbal being hit, others bounced and made progressively less noise as they skipped across the roofs..and then silence for a few minutes then back into a thin metallic sound of small hail..... A few minutes later the main updraft core move directly over the CBD of Melbourne complete with infeed band and a slowly rotating high based wall cloud fronted by a magnificent orange glowing hail and rain shaft.... all this without any significant shear!!.................regards Clyve Herbert.
 
P.S. I can only just imagine what the Sydney hail storm would have sounded like with up to 10cm hail!!,  the largest measured hail in Melbourne on Friday was 4.2cm........
From: "Nick Sykes" To: Subject: aus-wx: Stunning Cb photos Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 14:53:58 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey All Yesterday I went chasing up in NE Vic and just into NSW. At sunset I saw what was probably the most beautiful Cb I have ever seen. I was in perfect location and time to see this Cb lit up by the setting sun. It was located over Lake Hume. http://www.pbase.com/njsykes/feb_2&page=all The Cb was huge, so big i couldn't get it in my digi lens even though I was some distance away. I took some pics with my SLR and hopefully it just squeezed into the frame. I have more pics from today was well as pics from Friday and the storms over Melbourne, some more nice sunset pics. Nick Sykes +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 15:34:22 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: T.C. off northwest AUS.? -> Now TC Chris Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. This system has has now become TC Chris, although JTWC still considers it only as a fair area!. Links to all warnings etc on my page at http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm BoM TC Advice #2 pasted below. Regards, Carl. > Hi all tropos. The area of convergence and enhanced convection that >has been playing about the Kimberley area over the past 5 or 6 days has >finally moved offshore and managed to get its self under a region of good >to very good upper divergence,if this system continues to develop we may >see one of the better TC's of the season. There are or seems to be two >preferred alignments of movement one towards the west, north of the >500hpa to 300hpa ridge or a recurve towards the south southwest, (the >upper ridge appears weaker further west), it may then harass the >northwest coast of WA between Exmouth and Port Headland keep an eye on >this one.. also there is a small region of enhanced convection west >northwest of Thursday Island but this development is under rather weaker >upper divergence,another system is apparent well to the west of AUS near >to the central Indian ocean at about 10 south. The cloud band extending >through SA is also starting to interact with outflow from the developing >TC north of Broome this band has some potential as well. regards Clyve H. IDW24100 BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning. PRIORITY TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2 Issued at 12:55 pm WST on Sunday, 3 February 2002 BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH A WARNING is current for a category 1 cyclone for the coastal areas between Cockatoo Island and Broome. A cyclone WATCH extends from Broome south to Dampier. At noon WST Tropical Cyclone Chris was estimated to be 290 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 200 kilometres west northwest of Cape Leveque and moving south at 10 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is expected to move closer to the coast during today and tonight. Gales with gusts to 110 kilometres may develop in coastal communities between Cockatoo Island and Broome overnight. Details of Tropical Cyclone Chris at noon WST. Location of centre : within 60 kilometres of Latitude 15.5 South Longitude 121.3 East. Recent movement : South at 10 kilometres per hour. Central Pressure : 990 hPa. Maximum wind gusts : 110 kilometres per hour near the centre. Severity category : 1. The SES advises of the following community alerts: Blue alert: Derby, Broome, One Arm Point, Cape Leveque, Djarindjin, Lombadina, Beagle Bay The next warning will be issued at 4:00 pm WST.Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by dialling 1300 659 210 A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Bussy" To: "aussie-weather" Subject: aus-wx: Theory thing Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 19:06:53 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Just wondering what would be the outcome if in theory this happened.
Minimum was 30C and maximum was 30C When would we say the minimum or maximum was reached. If in theory that the temp was 30 for 24 hours.
Or
The temp was say, 30 at 1pm and still 30 at 2pm would I say for arguments sake that the maximum was 30 at 1pm or should I say it was 2pm?????
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
From: "Bussy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Stunning Cb photos Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 20:13:20 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The NE. What a place to be (at times). I would only guess that this was the one that went up about 7.30-8pm last night? Was a real threatening storm earlier in the arvo that just seemed to fall apart when it got here and the main part followed the river. 6.7 drops recorded here......... ----- Original Message ----- From: "Nick Sykes" To: Sent: Sunday, February 03, 2002 2:53 PM Subject: aus-wx: Stunning Cb photos > Hey All > > Yesterday I went chasing up in NE Vic and just into NSW. > > At sunset I saw what was probably the most beautiful Cb I have ever seen. I > was in perfect location and time to see this Cb lit up by the setting sun. > It was located over Lake Hume. > > http://www.pbase.com/njsykes/feb_2&page=all > > The Cb was huge, so big i couldn't get it in my digi lens even though I was > some distance away. I took some pics with my SLR and hopefully it just > squeezed into the frame. > > I have more pics from today was well as pics from Friday and the storms over > Melbourne, some more nice sunset pics. > > Nick Sykes > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: T.C. off northwest AUS.? -> Now TC Chris Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 20:18:47 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Feb 2002 09:20:46.0251 (UTC) FILETIME=[0FC0B7B0:01C1AC94] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Carl and all. T.C. Chris has at the moment some very nice outflow spiral bands, surface convergence is not as good this afternoon, the system seems to be edging south,southwest, also there is some potential over the southeast of Australia for the risk of a cut off low developing over the next 24 to 36 hours although the sub tropical jet is not as yet attained good divergent outflow to the east. Some nice looking storms over the WA region inland from Carnarvon along the surface trough , enhanced convergence also occurring here as this trough deepens with the approach of TC Chris. ----- Original Message ----- From: Carl Smith To: Sent: Sunday, February 03, 2002 4:34 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: T.C. off northwest AUS.? -> Now TC Chris > Hi All. > > This system has has now become TC Chris, although JTWC still considers it > only as a fair area!. > > Links to all warnings etc on my page at > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > > BoM TC Advice #2 pasted below. > > Regards, > Carl. > > > Hi all tropos. The area of convergence and enhanced convection that > >has been playing about the Kimberley area over the past 5 or 6 days has > >finally moved offshore and managed to get its self under a region of good > >to very good upper divergence,if this system continues to develop we may > >see one of the better TC's of the season. There are or seems to be two > >preferred alignments of movement one towards the west, north of the > >500hpa to 300hpa ridge or a recurve towards the south southwest, (the > >upper ridge appears weaker further west), it may then harass the > >northwest coast of WA between Exmouth and Port Headland keep an eye on > >this one.. also there is a small region of enhanced convection west > >northwest of Thursday Island but this development is under rather weaker > >upper divergence,another system is apparent well to the west of AUS near > >to the central Indian ocean at about 10 south. The cloud band extending > >through SA is also starting to interact with outflow from the developing > >TC north of Broome this band has some potential as well. regards Clyve H. > > > IDW24100 > BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE > > Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning. > > PRIORITY > > TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2 > Issued at 12:55 pm WST on Sunday, 3 February 2002 > BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH > > A WARNING is current for a category 1 cyclone for the coastal areas between > Cockatoo Island and Broome. > > A cyclone WATCH extends from Broome south to Dampier. > > At noon WST Tropical Cyclone Chris was estimated to be 290 kilometres north > northwest of Broome and 200 kilometres west northwest of Cape Leveque and > moving > south at 10 kilometres per hour. > > The cyclone is expected to move closer to the coast during today and tonight. > Gales with gusts to 110 kilometres may develop in coastal communities between > Cockatoo Island and Broome overnight. > > Details of Tropical Cyclone Chris at noon WST. > > Location of centre : within 60 kilometres of > Latitude 15.5 South > Longitude 121.3 East. > Recent movement : South at 10 kilometres per hour. > Central Pressure : 990 hPa. > Maximum wind gusts : 110 kilometres per hour near the centre. > Severity category : 1. > > The SES advises of the following community alerts: > > Blue alert: Derby, Broome, One Arm Point, Cape Leveque, Djarindjin, > Lombadina, Beagle Bay > > The next warning will be issued at 4:00 pm WST.Cyclone advices and State > Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by > dialling 1300 659 210 > > > A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: > http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone > > ~~~~~~~~~~ > Carl Smith. > Gold Coast. > Queensland. > Australia. > > Email: carls at qldnet.com.au > Current Tropical Cyclone information : > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Theory thing Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 20:23:38 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Feb 2002 09:25:36.0903 (UTC) FILETIME=[BCFEB170:01C1AC94] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Bussy.
There have been occasions when the min has been higher than the max, this is due to the time formula given to the min and max etc i.e min to 0900, if the temp keeps falling after 0900 then this is how this strange set up can occur. if the min was 30 and the max 30 then that's how it is recorded,although they might search for the minor points such as min 30.1c and max 30.2c etc. Blair would be the one to sought this out.. regards Clyve H.
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussy
Sent: Sunday, February 03, 2002 7:06 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Theory thing

Just wondering what would be the outcome if in theory this happened.
Minimum was 30C and maximum was 30C When would we say the minimum or maximum was reached. If in theory that the temp was 30 for 24 hours.
Or
The temp was say, 30 at 1pm and still 30 at 2pm would I say for arguments sake that the maximum was 30 at 1pm or should I say it was 2pm?????
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne Age image of hailstorm Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 20:42:02 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Afternoon all, There are a couple more reports with pics still to go up of Friday night's amazing events - almost finished. I've linked the article done by the Melbourne Age yesterday re the hailstorm on Friday night, which includes an absolutely brilliant shot taken from high up in the CBD.... http://www.stormchasers.au.com/01_02_02age.htm If you are a regualar user of the Current Victorian Weather page http://www.stormchasers.au.com/current.htm , the JCU site which supplies the satpic, has been down for a couple of days. The situation should be rectified tomorrow. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 22:40:28 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Feb 2002 11:43:04.0298 (UTC) FILETIME=[F0D34CA0:01C1ACA7] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Here is my contributions to the reports filtering in from Friday's AWESOME storms in Victoria. Thanks to Jane for getting this up on the MSC site. Enjoy the pics and captions..... http://www.stormchasers.au.com/01_02_02am.htm Andrew McDonald (Macca-wx) ----- Original Message ----- From: Jane ONeill To: Sent: Sunday, February 03, 2002 11:07 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms > Images from yesterday's chase through northeast Victoria & southern NSW > are here http://www.stormchasers.au.com/02_02_02.htm > > The last image is of the cell near Hume Weir that Nick Sykes has images > up at http://www.pbase.com/njsykes/feb_3&browse=Y > > Jane > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p217-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.147.217] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Sun, 03 Feb 2002 22:38:46 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne action Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all you Victorians, There are some nice images and video clips from this action packed system. Well done. Sparks on your car and some nice cumulonimbus pictures all around. Excellent stuff. A nice lightning show is something we have not had this season - well not the most impressive stuff we could normally get. ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: aus-wx: Vic Weather - thoughts Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 00:44:36 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Feb 2002 13:47:10.0970 (UTC) FILETIME=[476345A0:01C1ACB9] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Evening all (well - actually its morning now),

After a stormy start to the weekend today finished with a cool day, which as Blair mentioned on the TWC forum was the coolest Feb day in 4 years or so (18.5C). There were some weak showers and storms in far SE NSW close to the Vic border along the inland trough but I think cloud prevented heating and hence only relatively weak convection occurred (that i know of).

Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day. The inland trough will deepen slightly and push SW wards into NE/North Country districts of Victoria. Currently a large NW cloud band runs from WA down across most of Victoria. I think this cloud band will be the feature which will determine whether or not there are storms in Victoria. The latest satellite loops show the cloud band slowly drifting across Victoria with the western edge now sitting just W of the border (the 22:30 image). Of more interest is the clear slot pushing into the NW of the state. I think the cloud band will drift far enough E overnight to leave at least half of the state clear tomorrow (W of 145E). I also think the "clear slot" could potentially move far enough E to sit close to, if not right over the sfc trough tomorrow. The clear slot most likely indicates drier air pushing into the W edge of the cloudband. If the area E of a line from Echuca - Bendigo clears to allow some heating into the area near the trough, some convection should kick off. Upper levels are slightly cooler than late last week and 850mb temps are quite a bit cooler too meaning that deep convection will require less heating to initiate. A guestimate at a convective temperature tomorrow would be about 28C. Given that the sfc winds are progged to be E-ENE across the NE and Northern Country tomorrow not a lot of heat is going to be drawn from warm inland areas so the heating will depend almost solely on the cloud clearing. Dew points in the far NE of the state are sitting between 11 and 13C and with more moisture sitting in SE NSW waiting to be transported into Vic by the ENE'lies tomorrow, these DP's should increase a little tomorrow making things more interesting.

AVN is currently progging this entire cloud mass to virtually cease S'ward movement as of about now (given its current position) and then shift due E meaning that the clear slot lies across the Central West areas of NSW. S of the clear slot has more mositure (and hence cloud). Due to this they are progging the best insatbility to be in the Central West of NSW. The idea is right in that where the clear slot interacts with the trough, storms will kick off but the question is still posed as to where the clear slot will be. I think the current sat pic indicates that this clear slot will be further S than AVN is progging and there is a chance that we could see it sitting over the northern parts of Victoria at prime time tomorrow.

Of course I'm working so I can't chase but wherever the clear slot lies it will be worth keeping an eye on the area. Shear is going to be quite good with sfc flow being ENE'ly and the potential is there for mid to upper level flow to be quite strong from the NW. If deep convection can be initiated I wouldn't rule out organised storms with the chance of severe storms with the works (hail, winds and heavy rain).

Its late and I can't think straight any more. I need to go to bed.

I'll be interested to see where the cloud lies Tues and Wed as well as I think there is a chance we could see Victoria virtually cloud free with most of the cloud sitting JUST over the border in NSW (hehe) which will leave our skies clear and primed for storms...hehe. This may depend on what happens with the TC currently sitting just off the WA coast (and incidentally is now progged to be Cat 3 within 24hrs of it being named) and the direction it moves and the interaction it has with the jet.

Anyway - enough from me. I need sleep.

Andrew McDonald
(Macca-wx)

X-Authentication-Warning: ajax.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 00:54:53 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com And here are my pics: http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_01/today.html Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Bussy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 06:49:41 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com That was some sort of storm from all accounts. Nice pictures. Even though there was not a cloud in the sky here, way off in the distance to the West/SW of here the lightning was clearly visible in the night sky and was very active. The only time we got wet here was when the sprinkler spun around :-) Currently drizzling here at 1.8mm so far. Big downpour. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Robert Goler" To: Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 12:54 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms > > And here are my pics: > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_01/today.html +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p217-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.147.217] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Mon, 04 Feb 2002 07:25:18 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I am of the opinion that there will be some substantial rainfall in eastern NSW over the next few days. And it seems there is cyclogenisis expected to occur. We also have a very fresh E flow expected to developed which will help maintain the backbuilding effect of the system as it nears the coast. It will also pump a fir bit of moisture into the system. There is sufficient cold air aloft that thunderstorms will continue to develop inland and thence get carried as rain and embedded thunderstorms. It seems the low according to the models is going to develop somewhere off the Hunter Coast but will it move S? Time will tell. If we get substantial rainfall to cause major flooding, it will be the first in 10 years here in Sydney. The last time we had major flooding was in early February 1992 - what a coincidence. Raining steadily outside at the moment all a part of the NW cloud band but the rain will persist and become more organised and enhanced once the E flow develops. This E flow by the way is fairly deep going up to and higher than the 850hPa level. Shall see what happens. ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Godsman, Andrew AG" To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain NSW Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 07:50:34 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com RE: aus-wx: Rain NSW

Hi as well,

Friday afternoons rain was great, we received 54.5mm of rain in around 4hrs of steady rain at North Wollongong, until 4:30pm. Since then we haven't received much, but the winds down at Wollongong this morning are already starting to tend SE on the coast and beginning to pick up in strength. It should be a good day with maybe 10mm falling already in the steady rain since just before 5am. We could find ourselves past our Feb average of 107mm on the fourth day of the month. The first time we've even gotten close to our average since at least October.

I'm definately not complaining as the rather wet run into work this morning is much better than the still and extremely humid conditions of the last week or two.

Cheers
Andrew Godsman

-----Original Message-----
From: Jimmy Deguara [mailto:jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Sent: Monday, 4 February 2002 7:25 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW


Hi all,

I am of the opinion that there will be some substantial rainfall in eastern
NSW over the next few days. And it seems there is cyclogenisis expected to
occur. We also have a very fresh E flow expected to developed which will
help maintain the backbuilding effect of the system as it nears the coast.
It will also pump a fir bit of moisture into the system. There is
sufficient cold air aloft that thunderstorms will continue to develop
inland and thence get carried as  rain and embedded thunderstorms. It seems
the low according to the models is going to develop somewhere off the
Hunter Coast but will it move S?

Time will tell. If we get substantial rainfall to cause major flooding, it
will be the first in 10 years here in Sydney. The last time we had major
flooding was in early February 1992 - what a coincidence.

Raining steadily outside at the moment all a part of the NW cloud band but
the rain will persist and become more organised and enhanced once the E
flow develops. This E flow by the way is fairly deep going up to and higher
than the 850hPa level.

Shall see what happens.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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EOM

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From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: congrads! Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 08:49:21 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >A few minutes later the main updraft core move directly over = >the CBD of Melbourne complete with infeed band and a slowly rotating = >high based wall cloud fronted by a magnificent orange glowing hail and = >rain shaft.... all this without any significant = >shear!!.................regards Clyve Herbert. Subject says it all Clyve... For those who didn't see Melbourne's Sunday Herald Sun there is a great mug shot of Clyve, along side an article describing how the hail at Flinders street sounded like cannon balls... Regards, David Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "dann weatherhead" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 09:08:04 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Jimmy, Its been awhile since there was a significant flood event in the Sydney basin. I moved from Melbourne to Sydney in 1988 and they used to happen with yearly regularity (usually in Feb-March). We thought a yeary flood was the norm (we also thought large hail bearing storms were the norm, recieving a fair few poundings in our first 4 years here). Feb 1992 was the last time the Nepean river broke its banks and the last time the turf farmers north of Richmond and Windsor enjoyed a healthy covering of silt. Since then, they have had to rely of dredging it out of the river banks. There is probably a few reasons to why the Nepean hasn't flooded in awhile: 1. Rain-We haven't really had widespread heavy falls for consecutive days to warrant flooding for years (especially out west in the catchment areas). When we have come close, this has usually been on the end of a drought-period. 2. Penrith Lakes System- You thought it was only good for Rowing and White Water rafting? It also catches a heap of water that would usually flow of of the Warragamba down toward Richmond. In 1992, the lakes scheme was only just started. It certainly looks good for prolonged rainfall. Lets wait and see shall we :) dann ____________________________ Daniel Weatherhead weatherhead at ozemail.com.au Blaxland, NSW ============================ SYDNEY STORM CHASERS http://www.sydneystormchasers.com ============================ ----- Original Message ----- From: Jimmy Deguara To: Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 7:25 AM Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW > Hi all, > > I am of the opinion that there will be some substantial rainfall in eastern > NSW over the next few days. And it seems there is cyclogenisis expected to > occur. We also have a very fresh E flow expected to developed which will > help maintain the backbuilding effect of the system as it nears the coast. > It will also pump a fir bit of moisture into the system. There is > sufficient cold air aloft that thunderstorms will continue to develop > inland and thence get carried as rain and embedded thunderstorms. It seems > the low according to the models is going to develop somewhere off the > Hunter Coast but will it move S? > > Time will tell. If we get substantial rainfall to cause major flooding, it > will be the first in 10 years here in Sydney. The last time we had major > flooding was in early February 1992 - what a coincidence. > > Raining steadily outside at the moment all a part of the NW cloud band but > the rain will persist and become more organised and enhanced once the E > flow develops. This E flow by the way is fairly deep going up to and higher > than the 850hPa level. > > Shall see what happens. > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Mon, 04 Feb 2002 06:33:33 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: congrads! X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Can somebody scan it and put it online please? We can't buy that paper over here! Thanks. Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 08:49:21 +1100 Subject: aus-wx: congrads! > > >A few minutes later the main updraft core move directly over = > >the CBD of Melbourne complete with infeed band and a slowly rotating = > >high based wall cloud fronted by a magnificent orange glowing hail and > = > >rain shaft.... all this without any significant = > >shear!!.................regards Clyve Herbert. > > Subject says it all Clyve... For those who didn't see Melbourne's > Sunday > Herald Sun there is a great mug > shot of Clyve, along side an article describing how the hail at > Flinders > street sounded like cannon balls... > > Regards, > > David > > Dr David Jones > > Climate Analysis Section > National Climate Centre > Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 > GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 > Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 > email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- > + > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin dryest January on record?? To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 09:47:41 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > I noticed in the local NT newspaper (well, excuse for a newspaper) that > Darwin may have had it's dryest January on record? Dunno if this record was > broken. Anyone know about this? Quite unusual as the wet seasons up north > have had very high rainfall totals in the past few years. > Darwin's January rainfall was the 2nd lowest in the 61-year airport record, and the 6th lowest if you combine the airport with the old PO records (not strictly valid in a climatic sense, but gives some idea of the range of variability). Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: congrads! Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 09:50:26 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Doc Jones wrote: Subject says it all Clyve... For those who didn't see Melbourne's Sunday Herald Sun there is a great mug shot of Clyve, along side an article describing how the hail at Flinders street sounded like cannon balls... see here for Clyve's 1812 Overture description ..... http://www.stormchasers.au.com/01_02_02ch.htm Congratulations Clyve!! Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: Dubbo Rain To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 10:40:39 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 04/02/2002 10:40:35 AM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com HI all. Looks a pounding had in Dubbo, from 5am this morning until 9am 77 mm of rain bucketed down. Bathurst has had some great rain.. has been very dry here 30 mm overnight. Dave ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: aus-wx: TC Chris update Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 11:00:41 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com In case you were wondering..... Current radar reflectivities show TC Chris heading steadily SW & staying over the sea...... 032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 120.7E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM RESIDES NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY THE PERIPHERY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 13S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY, BUT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD ARREST FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AVIATION (AVN), AND BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7. ...meanwhile, the effects of Chris (in one way) are being felt in NSW with some pretty 'respectable' rainfall totals... http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65091.shtml (Ulladulla had 24.2mm in an hour & Dubbo has had 77.2mm in 25 hours. Apparently, a number of roads in Sydney have succumbed to flooding......) Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 10:02:03 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Good Rain in Canberra and the South East We at Southside Weather Watch were pleased to wake to the sound of downpipes running this morning. We had a series of good storms on Saturday pm with 19.9 mm by 8am Sunday. None were severe but quite spectacular to watch.We have had steady rain from late evening Sunday with 21.1 mm to 8am Monday and still raining .Figures for the local AWS are Canberra A/P the 3rd a total of 8.4 mm .On the 4th 23.mm . Tuggeranong (about 5 km west of us 35.8 mm on the 3rd ; most of that (29mm ) in a tstorm Sat pm and 9.0 mm to 9am today Monday We agree with you that good rains are on the way but I think you guys on the coast will get most of it, particularly if a surface low develops of the the Hunter.The surface trough seems to lie west of Wagga /Dubbo and if it moves eastward we might see a clearance before we get a good drenching.On the other hand the upper trough might generate Tstorms for us by Tuesday pm? Regards Gavin O'Brien. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jimmy Deguara" To: Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 7:25 AM Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW > Hi all, > > I am of the opinion that there will be some substantial rainfall in eastern > NSW over the next few days. And it seems there is cyclogenisis expected to > occur. We also have a very fresh E flow expected to developed which will > help maintain the backbuilding effect of the system as it nears the coast. > It will also pump a fir bit of moisture into the system. There is > sufficient cold air aloft that thunderstorms will continue to develop > inland and thence get carried as rain and embedded thunderstorms. It seems > the low according to the models is going to develop somewhere off the > Hunter Coast but will it move S? > > Time will tell. If we get substantial rainfall to cause major flooding, it > will be the first in 10 years here in Sydney. The last time we had major > flooding was in early February 1992 - what a coincidence. > > Raining steadily outside at the moment all a part of the NW cloud band but > the rain will persist and become more organised and enhanced once the E > flow develops. This E flow by the way is fairly deep going up to and higher > than the 850hPa level. > > Shall see what happens. > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Glen O'Riley" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain NSW Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 11:30:52 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Has been raining all week in Krambach and I don't think the radar has shown up once yet. -------------------- Glen O'Riley Computer Technician goriley at tsn.cc www.linx.iwarp.com -------------------- Storm Chaser Firefighter SES Volunteer CB Radio Monitor ------------------- -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of GAVIN O'BRIEN Sent: Monday, 4 February 2002 10:02 AM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW Good Rain in Canberra and the South East We at Southside Weather Watch were pleased to wake to the sound of downpipes running this morning. We had a series of good storms on Saturday pm with 19.9 mm by 8am Sunday. None were severe but quite spectacular to watch.We have had steady rain from late evening Sunday with 21.1 mm to 8am Monday and still raining .Figures for the local AWS are Canberra A/P the 3rd a total of 8.4 mm .On the 4th 23.mm . Tuggeranong (about 5 km west of us 35.8 mm on the 3rd ; most of that (29mm ) in a tstorm Sat pm and 9.0 mm to 9am today Monday We agree with you that good rains are on the way but I think you guys on the coast will get most of it, particularly if a surface low develops of the the Hunter.The surface trough seems to lie west of Wagga /Dubbo and if it moves eastward we might see a clearance before we get a good drenching.On the other hand the upper trough might generate Tstorms for us by Tuesday pm? Regards Gavin O'Brien. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jimmy Deguara" To: Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 7:25 AM Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW > Hi all, > > I am of the opinion that there will be some substantial rainfall in eastern > NSW over the next few days. And it seems there is cyclogenisis expected to > occur. We also have a very fresh E flow expected to developed which will > help maintain the backbuilding effect of the system as it nears the coast. > It will also pump a fir bit of moisture into the system. There is > sufficient cold air aloft that thunderstorms will continue to develop > inland and thence get carried as rain and embedded thunderstorms. It seems > the low according to the models is going to develop somewhere off the > Hunter Coast but will it move S? > > Time will tell. If we get substantial rainfall to cause major flooding, it > will be the first in 10 years here in Sydney. The last time we had major > flooding was in early February 1992 - what a coincidence. > > Raining steadily outside at the moment all a part of the NW cloud band but > the rain will persist and become more organised and enhanced once the E > flow develops. This E flow by the way is fairly deep going up to and higher > than the 850hPa level. > > Shall see what happens. > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\Glen Patrick O'Riley.vcf" From: "Glen O'Riley" To: "Weather List Aussie" Subject: aus-wx: Receipts Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 12:03:53 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sorry folks, the auto receipt box was ticked, it causes too much traffic though so I turned it off. --------------------- Glen O'Riley Computer Technician goriley at tsn.cc www.linx.iwarp.com -------------------- Storm Chaser Firefighter SES Volunteer CB Radio Monitor ------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\Glen Patrick O'Riley1.vcf" From: "Glen O'Riley" To: "Dean McWhinney" , Subject: RE: aus-wx: Receipts Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 13:26:45 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Dean, long time no hear. And for everyone, we have had well over an inch of rain near Taree since 20:00hrs last night and it is currently raining extremely heavy. I am completely saturated after going up to unblock the gutters. It has been raining near constantly for a week here now and this heavy shower we are having now has been going for about an hour. --------------------- Glen O'Riley Computer Technician goriley at tsn.cc www.linx.iwarp.com -------------------- Storm Chaser Firefighter SES Volunteer CB Radio Monitor ------------------- -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Glen O'Riley Sent: Monday, 4 February 2002 12:04 PM To: Weather List Aussie Subject: aus-wx: Receipts Sorry folks, the auto receipt box was ticked, it causes too much traffic though so I turned it off. --------------------- Glen O'Riley Computer Technician goriley at tsn.cc www.linx.iwarp.com -------------------- Storm Chaser Firefighter SES Volunteer CB Radio Monitor ------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\Glen Patrick O'Riley2.vcf" From: "Chris Daley" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 16:08:21 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com And my report and pics are at; http://www.stormchasers.au.com/01_02_02cd.htm These are only a couple of the photo's I took, I will be showing a 10 minute clip of video I have put together from Friday night at the next Victorian ASWA meeting. Chris ----- Original Message ----- From: Robert Goler To: Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 12:54 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms > > And here are my pics: > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_01/today.html > > > Cheers > > -- > > Robert A. Goler > > School of Mathematical Sciences > Monash University > Clayton, Vic 3800 > Australia > > ph. +61 3 9905 4424 > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: TC Chris. Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 16:23:15 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 04 Feb 2002 05:25:11.0747 (UTC) FILETIME=[51585130:01C1AD3C] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
T.C. Chris has reached cat 3 and still edging slowly southward, wind gusts near the centre are approaching 180kph and the system is still deepening,if TC Chris remains over the sea it may reach cat 4 later tonight. The present track if it continues puts the TC crossing the coast between Anna Plains and Wallal downs, there is some risk of the TC moving slightly to the west of this area. regards Clyve Herbert.
From: "Keith Barnett" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 18:37:48 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I think it will be a while before the Nepean starts to flood unless of course we get the falls in the catchments that they've had on parts of the north shore and those falls are sustained. Warragamba Dam I think would still have a bit to go before they would consider opening the gates. However I could be wrong..I've had 95mm here since Thursday night and things are pretty saturated..that is to say how much more can the ground take? When we get more rain in a day than we've had in a month then you know you are in for a major rain event. Plus the drought index was getting up to over 130 which is a good measure of when we might get some heavy stuff. This stationary trough reminds me of the situation that caused the Nyngan floods (can't remember the year..1989?). And the fact that it's all connected to  cyclone Chris I think makes for an enhanced rain event.
One day I might do a statistical study of recurrence periods of floods...
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 9:08 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW

Hi Jimmy,

Its been awhile since there was a significant flood event in the Sydney
basin. I moved from Melbourne to Sydney in 1988 and they used to happen with
yearly regularity (usually in Feb-March). We thought a yeary flood was the
norm (we also thought large hail bearing storms were the norm, recieving a
fair few poundings in our first 4 years here).

Feb 1992 was the last time the Nepean river broke its banks and the last
time the turf farmers north of Richmond and Windsor enjoyed a healthy
covering of silt. Since then, they have had to rely of dredging it out of
the river banks.

There is probably a few reasons to why the Nepean hasn't flooded in awhile:
1. Rain-We haven't really had widespread heavy falls for consecutive days to
warrant flooding for years (especially out west in the catchment areas).
When we have come close, this has usually been on the end of a
drought-period.
2. Penrith Lakes System- You thought it was only good for Rowing and White
Water rafting? It also catches a heap of water that would usually flow of of
the Warragamba down toward Richmond. In 1992, the lakes scheme was only just
started.

It certainly looks good for prolonged rainfall.

Lets wait and see shall we :)

dann
____________________________
Daniel Weatherhead
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
Blaxland, NSW
============================
SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
============================

----- Original Message -----
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 7:25 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW


> Hi all,
>
> I am of the opinion that there will be some substantial rainfall in
eastern
> NSW over the next few days. And it seems there is cyclogenisis expected to
> occur. We also have a very fresh E flow expected to developed which will
> help maintain the backbuilding effect of the system as it nears the coast.
> It will also pump a fir bit of moisture into the system. There is
> sufficient cold air aloft that thunderstorms will continue to develop
> inland and thence get carried as  rain and embedded thunderstorms. It
seems
> the low according to the models is going to develop somewhere off the
> Hunter Coast but will it move S?
>
> Time will tell. If we get substantial rainfall to cause major flooding, it
> will be the first in 10 years here in Sydney. The last time we had major
> flooding was in early February 1992 - what a coincidence.
>
> Raining steadily outside at the moment all a part of the NW cloud band but
> the rain will persist and become more organised and enhanced once the E
> flow develops. This E flow by the way is fairly deep going up to and
higher
> than the 850hPa level.
>
> Shall see what happens.
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Keith Barnett" To: "Weather list" Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 18:53:10 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
As a postscript to my last message, something's brewing up..the winds have turned southeast and are freshening and the low scud cloud under the higher overcast has quite rapid vertical motion...it's just forming out of nothing and rising into the stuff above it..
From: "dann weatherhead" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 18:53:55 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Keith,
 
Do you have any records of the daily rainfall obs from the last major floods in the Sydney basin in 1992? I am interested in the totals that led up to this.
 
Cheers!!
 
dann
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 6:37 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW

I think it will be a while before the Nepean starts to flood unless of course we get the falls in the catchments that they've had on parts of the north shore and those falls are sustained. Warragamba Dam I think would still have a bit to go before they would consider opening the gates. However I could be wrong..I've had 95mm here since Thursday night and things are pretty saturated..that is to say how much more can the ground take? When we get more rain in a day than we've had in a month then you know you are in for a major rain event. Plus the drought index was getting up to over 130 which is a good measure of when we might get some heavy stuff. This stationary trough reminds me of the situation that caused the Nyngan floods (can't remember the year..1989?). And the fact that it's all connected to  cyclone Chris I think makes for an enhanced rain event.
One day I might do a statistical study of recurrence periods of floods...
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 9:08 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW

Hi Jimmy,

Its been awhile since there was a significant flood event in the Sydney
basin. I moved from Melbourne to Sydney in 1988 and they used to happen with
yearly regularity (usually in Feb-March). We thought a yeary flood was the
norm (we also thought large hail bearing storms were the norm, recieving a
fair few poundings in our first 4 years here).

Feb 1992 was the last time the Nepean river broke its banks and the last
time the turf farmers north of Richmond and Windsor enjoyed a healthy
covering of silt. Since then, they have had to rely of dredging it out of
the river banks.

There is probably a few reasons to why the Nepean hasn't flooded in awhile:
1. Rain-We haven't really had widespread heavy falls for consecutive days to
warrant flooding for years (especially out west in the catchment areas).
When we have come close, this has usually been on the end of a
drought-period.
2. Penrith Lakes System- You thought it was only good for Rowing and White
Water rafting? It also catches a heap of water that would usually flow of of
the Warragamba down toward Richmond. In 1992, the lakes scheme was only just
started.

It certainly looks good for prolonged rainfall.

Lets wait and see shall we :)

dann
____________________________
Daniel Weatherhead
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
Blaxland, NSW
============================
SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
============================

----- Original Message -----
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 7:25 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW


> Hi all,
>
> I am of the opinion that there will be some substantial rainfall in
eastern
> NSW over the next few days. And it seems there is cyclogenisis expected to
> occur. We also have a very fresh E flow expected to developed which will
> help maintain the backbuilding effect of the system as it nears the coast.
> It will also pump a fir bit of moisture into the system. There is
> sufficient cold air aloft that thunderstorms will continue to develop
> inland and thence get carried as  rain and embedded thunderstorms. It
seems
> the low according to the models is going to develop somewhere off the
> Hunter Coast but will it move S?
>
> Time will tell. If we get substantial rainfall to cause major flooding, it
> will be the first in 10 years here in Sydney. The last time we had major
> flooding was in early February 1992 - what a coincidence.
>
> Raining steadily outside at the moment all a part of the NW cloud band but
> the rain will persist and become more organised and enhanced once the E
> flow develops. This E flow by the way is fairly deep going up to and
higher
> than the 850hPa level.
>
> Shall see what happens.
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Bussy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: congrads! Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 18:53:46 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Are you working for the media now Clyve. Biggest grin you could imagine...... +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Keith Barnett" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 19:10:21 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Yes, I have Sydney and Turramurra (and Seven Hills). I'll dig them out ...
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 6:53 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW

Hi Keith,
 
Do you have any records of the daily rainfall obs from the last major floods in the Sydney basin in 1992? I am interested in the totals that led up to this.
 
Cheers!!
 
dann
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 6:37 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW

I think it will be a while before the Nepean starts to flood unless of course we get the falls in the catchments that they've had on parts of the north shore and those falls are sustained. Warragamba Dam I think would still have a bit to go before they would consider opening the gates. However I could be wrong..I've had 95mm here since Thursday night and things are pretty saturated..that is to say how much more can the ground take? When we get more rain in a day than we've had in a month then you know you are in for a major rain event. Plus the drought index was getting up to over 130 which is a good measure of when we might get some heavy stuff. This stationary trough reminds me of the situation that caused the Nyngan floods (can't remember the year..1989?). And the fact that it's all connected to  cyclone Chris I think makes for an enhanced rain event.
One day I might do a statistical study of recurrence periods of floods...
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 9:08 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW

Hi Jimmy,

Its been awhile since there was a significant flood event in the Sydney
basin. I moved from Melbourne to Sydney in 1988 and they used to happen with
yearly regularity (usually in Feb-March). We thought a yeary flood was the
norm (we also thought large hail bearing storms were the norm, recieving a
fair few poundings in our first 4 years here).

Feb 1992 was the last time the Nepean river broke its banks and the last
time the turf farmers north of Richmond and Windsor enjoyed a healthy
covering of silt. Since then, they have had to rely of dredging it out of
the river banks.

There is probably a few reasons to why the Nepean hasn't flooded in awhile:
1. Rain-We haven't really had widespread heavy falls for consecutive days to
warrant flooding for years (especially out west in the catchment areas).
When we have come close, this has usually been on the end of a
drought-period.
2. Penrith Lakes System- You thought it was only good for Rowing and White
Water rafting? It also catches a heap of water that would usually flow of of
the Warragamba down toward Richmond. In 1992, the lakes scheme was only just
started.

It certainly looks good for prolonged rainfall.

Lets wait and see shall we :)

dann
____________________________
Daniel Weatherhead
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
Blaxland, NSW
============================
SYDNEY STORM CHASERS
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
============================

----- Original Message -----
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 7:25 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW


> Hi all,
>
> I am of the opinion that there will be some substantial rainfall in
eastern
> NSW over the next few days. And it seems there is cyclogenisis expected to
> occur. We also have a very fresh E flow expected to developed which will
> help maintain the backbuilding effect of the system as it nears the coast.
> It will also pump a fir bit of moisture into the system. There is
> sufficient cold air aloft that thunderstorms will continue to develop
> inland and thence get carried as  rain and embedded thunderstorms. It
seems
> the low according to the models is going to develop somewhere off the
> Hunter Coast but will it move S?
>
> Time will tell. If we get substantial rainfall to cause major flooding, it
> will be the first in 10 years here in Sydney. The last time we had major
> flooding was in early February 1992 - what a coincidence.
>
> Raining steadily outside at the moment all a part of the NW cloud band but
> the rain will persist and become more organised and enhanced once the E
> flow develops. This E flow by the way is fairly deep going up to and
higher
> than the 850hPa level.
>
> Shall see what happens.
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Peter Konnecke" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 20:01:47 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
There sure is something brewing ... the wind here is Beacon Hill has picked up dramatically from the ESE .... heavy winds to match the rain .... is this the beginning of an ECL ? Just my luck I'm flying to Brisbane thursday and I dont like ECL's when I have to fly.
 
Pete
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, 4 February 2002 18:53
Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW

As a postscript to my last message, something's brewing up..the winds have turned southeast and are freshening and the low scud cloud under the higher overcast has quite rapid vertical motion...it's just forming out of nothing and rising into the stuff above it..
X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p708-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.142.200] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Mon, 04 Feb 2002 19:59:09 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Dann, Also go to: http://www.australiasevereweather.com/observations/schofields.htm Michael Bath also had rain stats for back then: http://www.australiasevereweather.com/observations/oakhurst.htm Cheers. Jimmy Deguara At 06:53 PM 4/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Hi Keith, > >Do you have any records of the daily rainfall obs from the last major >floods in the Sydney basin in 1992? I am interested in the totals that led >up to this. > >Cheers!! > >dann >>----- Original Message ----- >>From: Keith Barnett >>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >>Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 6:37 PM >>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW >> >>I think it will be a while before the Nepean starts to flood unless of >>course we get the falls in the catchments that they've had on parts of >>the north shore and those falls are sustained. Warragamba Dam I think >>would still have a bit to go before they would consider opening the >>gates. However I could be wrong..I've had 95mm here since Thursday night >>and things are pretty saturated..that is to say how much more can the >>ground take? When we get more rain in a day than we've had in a month >>then you know you are in for a major rain event. Plus the drought index >>was getting up to over 130 which is a good measure of when we might get >>some heavy stuff. This stationary trough reminds me of the situation that >>caused the Nyngan floods (can't remember the year..1989?). And the fact >>that it's all connected to cyclone Chris I think makes for an enhanced >>rain event. >>One day I might do a statistical study of recurrence periods of floods... >>>----- Original Message ----- >>>From: dann weatherhead >>>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >>>Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 9:08 AM >>>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW >>> >>>Hi Jimmy, >>> >>>Its been awhile since there was a significant flood event in the Sydney >>>basin. I moved from Melbourne to Sydney in 1988 and they used to happen with >>>yearly regularity (usually in Feb-March). We thought a yeary flood was the >>>norm (we also thought large hail bearing storms were the norm, recieving a >>>fair few poundings in our first 4 years here). >>> >>>Feb 1992 was the last time the Nepean river broke its banks and the last >>>time the turf farmers north of Richmond and Windsor enjoyed a healthy >>>covering of silt. Since then, they have had to rely of dredging it out of >>>the river banks. >>> >>>There is probably a few reasons to why the Nepean hasn't flooded in awhile: >>>1. Rain-We haven't really had widespread heavy falls for consecutive days to >>>warrant flooding for years (especially out west in the catchment areas). >>>When we have come close, this has usually been on the end of a >>>drought-period. >>>2. Penrith Lakes System- You thought it was only good for Rowing and White >>>Water rafting? It also catches a heap of water that would usually flow of of >>>the Warragamba down toward Richmond. In 1992, the lakes scheme was only just >>>started. >>> >>>It certainly looks good for prolonged rainfall. >>> >>>Lets wait and see shall we :) >>> >>>dann >>>____________________________ >>>Daniel Weatherhead >>>weatherhead at ozemail.com.au >>>Blaxland, NSW >>>============================ >>>SYDNEY STORM CHASERS >>>http://www.sydneystormchasers.com >>>============================ >>> >>>----- Original Message ----- >>>From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au> >>>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com> >>>Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 7:25 AM >>>Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW >>> >>> >>> > Hi all, >>> > >>> > I am of the opinion that there will be some substantial rainfall in >>>eastern >>> > NSW over the next few days. And it seems there is cyclogenisis >>> expected to >>> > occur. We also have a very fresh E flow expected to developed which will >>> > help maintain the backbuilding effect of the system as it nears the >>> coast. >>> > It will also pump a fir bit of moisture into the system. There is >>> > sufficient cold air aloft that thunderstorms will continue to develop >>> > inland and thence get carried as rain and embedded thunderstorms. It >>>seems >>> > the low according to the models is going to develop somewhere off the >>> > Hunter Coast but will it move S? >>> > >>> > Time will tell. If we get substantial rainfall to cause major >>> flooding, it >>> > will be the first in 10 years here in Sydney. The last time we had major >>> > flooding was in early February 1992 - what a coincidence. >>> > >>> > Raining steadily outside at the moment all a part of the NW cloud >>> band but >>> > the rain will persist and become more organised and enhanced once the E >>> > flow develops. This E flow by the way is fairly deep going up to and >>>higher >>> > than the 850hPa level. >>> > >>> > Shall see what happens. >>> > >>> > ----------------------------------------- >>> > Jimmy Deguara >>> > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher >>> > >>> > from >>> > Schofields, Sydney >>> > NSW Australia >>> > >>> > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au >>> > >>> > Web Page with Michael Bath >>> > >>> > Australian Severe Weather Home Page >>> > >>> http://www.australiasevereweather.com >>> > >>> > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association >>> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au >>> > >>> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >>> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >>> to:majordomo at world.std.com >>> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >>> > message. >>> > >>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ >>> >>> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >>> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com >>> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >>> message. >>> >>>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ >> >>----------------------------------------- >>Jimmy Deguara >>Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher >> >>from >>Schofields, Sydney >>NSW Australia >> >>e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au >> >>Web Page with Michael Bath >> >>Australian Severe Weather Home Page >>http://www.australiasevereweather.com >> >>President of the Australian Severe Weather Association >>http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "dann weatherhead" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 20:14:16 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
About 7pmish the same thing happened here. It had been still and drizzly for most the day, and then a wind chage of sorts spung up and since then it has been torrential. I have just been for a drive and there is heaps and heaps of localised flooding between Richmond and Penrith (northern-londonderry-windsor rds). Remembering that inland around here doesn't cope with heavy rain as well as the coastal strip. I am staying at Cranebrook atm on a rather large rural property and dams which were empty and the begining of the year, are now spilling over.
 
More to follow.
 
dann
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 6:53 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW

As a postscript to my last message, something's brewing up..the winds have turned southeast and are freshening and the low scud cloud under the higher overcast has quite rapid vertical motion...it's just forming out of nothing and rising into the stuff above it..
From: "Keith Barnett" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 20:38:33 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I think we have a small low off the coast..probably too small to show up much on the charts..I don't think we get a weather map until 10pm. But it's blowing almost a gale here at times. The rain is coming in fits and starts..have had another 22mm since 6.45pm. Total since last night 71mm, or over twice the total for the whole of January.
Just for interest, a fall of 100 mm in 24 hours in February here is likely one year in 13...so we mightn't be far off..
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 8:14 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW

About 7pmish the same thing happened here. It had been still and drizzly for most the day, and then a wind chage of sorts spung up and since then it has been torrential. I have just been for a drive and there is heaps and heaps of localised flooding between Richmond and Penrith (northern-londonderry-windsor rds). Remembering that inland around here doesn't cope with heavy rain as well as the coastal strip. I am staying at Cranebrook atm on a rather large rural property and dams which were empty and the begining of the year, are now spilling over.
 
More to follow.
 
dann
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 6:53 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW

As a postscript to my last message, something's brewing up..the winds have turned southeast and are freshening and the low scud cloud under the higher overcast has quite rapid vertical motion...it's just forming out of nothing and rising into the stuff above it..
From: "Maria Weinber" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 20:42:56 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-Info: DCSI - We do Internet. X-Virus-Scanned: by AMaViS perl-11 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thank you Glen I do enjoy your messages Thank you Maria ----- Original Message ----- From: "Glen O'Riley" To: Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 11:30 AM Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain NSW > Has been raining all week in Krambach and I don't think the radar has shown > up once yet. > > -------------------- > > Glen O'Riley > Computer Technician > goriley at tsn.cc > www.linx.iwarp.com > > -------------------- > > Storm Chaser > Firefighter > SES Volunteer > CB Radio Monitor > > ------------------- > > -----Original Message----- > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of GAVIN O'BRIEN > Sent: Monday, 4 February 2002 10:02 AM > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW > > > Good Rain in Canberra and the South East > We at Southside Weather Watch were pleased to wake to the sound of > downpipes running this morning. We had a series of good storms on Saturday > pm with 19.9 mm by 8am Sunday. None were severe but quite spectacular to > watch.We have had steady rain from late evening Sunday with 21.1 mm to 8am > Monday and still raining .Figures for the local AWS are Canberra A/P the > 3rd a total of 8.4 mm .On the 4th 23.mm . Tuggeranong (about 5 km west of > us 35.8 mm on the 3rd ; most of that (29mm ) in a tstorm Sat pm and 9.0 mm > to 9am today Monday We agree with you that good rains are on the way but I > think you guys on the coast will get most of it, particularly if a surface > low develops of the the Hunter.The surface trough seems to lie west of > Wagga /Dubbo and if it moves eastward we might see a clearance before we get > a good drenching.On the other hand the upper trough might generate Tstorms > for us by Tuesday pm? > Regards > Gavin O'Brien. > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Jimmy Deguara" > To: > Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 7:25 AM > Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW > > > > Hi all, > > > > I am of the opinion that there will be some substantial rainfall in > eastern > > NSW over the next few days. And it seems there is cyclogenisis expected to > > occur. We also have a very fresh E flow expected to developed which will > > help maintain the backbuilding effect of the system as it nears the coast. > > It will also pump a fir bit of moisture into the system. There is > > sufficient cold air aloft that thunderstorms will continue to develop > > inland and thence get carried as rain and embedded thunderstorms. It > seems > > the low according to the models is going to develop somewhere off the > > Hunter Coast but will it move S? > > > > Time will tell. If we get substantial rainfall to cause major flooding, it > > will be the first in 10 years here in Sydney. The last time we had major > > flooding was in early February 1992 - what a coincidence. > > > > Raining steadily outside at the moment all a part of the NW cloud band but > > the rain will persist and become more organised and enhanced once the E > > flow develops. This E flow by the way is fairly deep going up to and > higher > > than the 850hPa level. > > > > Shall see what happens. > > > > ----------------------------------------- > > Jimmy Deguara > > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > > > from > > Schofields, Sydney > > NSW Australia > > > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [144.134.245.87] From: "Luke" To: "WX" Subject: aus-wx: Pictures of last Friday Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 22:08:19 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 04 Feb 2002 11:08:17.0816 (UTC) FILETIME=[3F992980:01C1AD6C] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey all
 
Here are some photos of last Friday (the storms that hit the Geelong/Melb area) at 2000 hrs
 
 
First attempt at capturing lightning with an SLR (210 mm zoom) what do you all think?
 
Thanks for the Web space Jane!!!!
 
Luke Garde
ASWA - Victoria
X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p708-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.142.200] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Mon, 04 Feb 2002 21:10:03 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Last years US Chase - Is this us? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 05:13 PM 1/2/2002 +1000, you wrote: >LOL - was it really you? Is it the same car you were driving? http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2001/0527jd02.jpg http://www.k5kj.net/010529/01052930.jpg Anthony, it looks like it is.... Jimmy Deguara >AC > >Jimmy Deguara wrote: > > > > Hi all, > > > > David and I believe that the stills captured here by Sam Barricklow were of > > our car when we were reversing out near the railway line. You can tell I am > > the driver - look at the level difference between myself and David Croan... > > > > http://www.k5kj.net/010529/01052930.jpg > > > > http://www.k5kj.net/010529/01052932.jpg > > > > They are from this page > > > > http://www.k5kj.net/010529.htm > > > > Cheers I found it quite funny. > > > > ----------------------------------------- > > Jimmy Deguara > > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > > > from > > Schofields, Sydney > > NSW Australia > > > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > >-- >Anthony Cornelius >Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the >Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) >(07) 3390 4812 >http://www.severeweather.asn.au > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Mon, 04 Feb 2002 21:36:58 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: "Aussie-Weather" Subject: aus-wx: Some thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I have watched with great interest the ongoing debate about long-range forecasting. I was scientifically trained originally and since my schooldays have been very interested in weather and whether or not it can be accurately forecast either long term or short term. I just want to share a few thoughts based on observations and reading over the past five decades or so. The scientific and meteorological communities are excellent at nowcasting (telling us what today's weather is), pretty good at getting tomorrow's right and just okay at the next day's. From then on out to five and seven day forecasts it's pretty much downhill - as the day gets nearer, the forecast for it tends to change. They really provide an excellent service for the person who is asking "What will the weather do for the footy this arvo?" They generally do not attempt to provide accurate long range forecasts. Ken Ring and others (such as Lennox Walker) provide a very valuable service (for which they quite rightly charge fees and are well paid by their clients) in showing the days (or windows as Carl puts it) of likelihood of rain months and years in advance. They never claim the "spot-on" reliability that the scientists seem to expect of them. I remember as a kid that every farmer for miles around would consult the phase and position of the moon to decide which date to start their ploughing, seeding, etc. and that they would all look up what Inigo Jones said in the Weekly Times, but none of them ever paid much attention to what the (then) Weather Bureau said for such planning. On the other hand, if they were taking Saturday arvo off to go to the footy, then they would look at the Weather Bureau's forecast for the day. Similarly, I see that the Chinese people here where I live have and make good use of a very sensible Lunar calendar which itself assists in predicting with very high accuracy exactly when the major weather changes will occur. You appear to have to know the long-term weather history of the exact location under study to really use it, and the skill seems to be passed from father to son down through the generations. All I can conclude is that the moon has some sort of very definite effect on the weather for a given location. What I cannot understand is why these city-bound scientists can't see the relevance of it; it is as though they have been brainwashed to be unable to see the connections. It seems to me as though some sort of application of lunar observations may well serve to make the BoM forecasts even more accurate. Perhaps they could achieve an even higher hit-rate for accurate forecasts. However, I don't think I want to see the BoM, the NWS or the HKO attempting to do the LR work. Rather I would like to see them refer LR weather inquiries to the true specialists such as Ken Ring, the Walkers, and those guys in the States who are doing the LR lunar-based work (I have forgotten the names - read about them a couple of years ago) who are really fulfilling a quite different function. The competition we have been watching over the past month is therefore somewhat like trying to compare an apple with an orange. The BoM should never be pitted against Ken Ring. When you want accurate scientific data to organise this afternoon's storm- chasing you will get it from the BoM. If you need to apply six months in advance for the exact date of your two weeks annual leave and you want to see the best possible chasing weather in TDU, you will contact Ken Ring or his mates. Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: duckman.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 01:24:24 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Stunning Cb photos Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all Here are my pics from SE NSW from Saturday: http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_02/today.html They include a small funnel and that cell that Nick saw (see below), but as seen from the north. On Sun, 3 Feb 2002, Nick Sykes wrote: > Hey All > > Yesterday I went chasing up in NE Vic and just into NSW. > > At sunset I saw what was probably the most beautiful Cb I have ever seen. I > was in perfect location and time to see this Cb lit up by the setting sun. > It was located over Lake Hume. > > http://www.pbase.com/njsykes/feb_2&page=all > > The Cb was huge, so big i couldn't get it in my digi lens even though I was > some distance away. I took some pics with my SLR and hopefully it just > squeezed into the frame. > Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 02:16:29 +1000 To: astro-weather at topica.com, Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Ken vs RNG's webpage Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. I have set up a webpage for the results of the Ken vs RNGs exercise at http://www.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/lr-rain-analysis.htm Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: reply to Simon and comment on the rain!!! Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 10:49:40 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Simon, Thanks for your comments, sorry I haven't been active, too busy .I do a fairly regular stint in the Philippines and have seen some great action over there in the S.W. Moonsoon periods .The Mountains really get the action going. but agian as you say they are rarely severe. In South Vietnam when I was there in the early 1970's .Some of the Storms produced gusts over 100 km/hr measured by Aneometer so apparently the inland location about 25 km from the coast and a nearby group of 1200m meter mountains, about 8 -10 KM to our northwest enhanced the action.The Storms would develop over their eastern slopes and drift south east towards us. I can recall one fall of about 115mm in 15 minutes which produced a big flash flood !They usually arrived about 4pm local time + or - 15 mins. How much rain did you get in Satuday's Storms we had a 24 hr total of19.9 mm at Gilmore but Tuggeranong AWS got 35.8mm ! So far today we had 21.1 mm to 8am and its still raining. Regards, Gavin O'Brien ----- Original Message ----- From: "Simon Angell" To: Sent: Tuesday, January 29, 2002 12:11 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Realtime AWS observations available in new format. > Welcome to the list Gavin. I have been away for 10 days so i can't comment > on recent storms for Canberra, But it port vila!!!!!!!!!!!! Hector (the > convector) eat your heart out, try 6 hector's in all quadrants with a > possilbe 3 more behind some of them, Unbeleivable convection (probably > assisted by the TL out that way) if these storms were in a less humid/tropic > environment they would probably be severe but alas it was just all looks but > no show (except for rain) > > Ive got over 300 photos to develop so im heading to the local Kodak shop to > see if i can get a deal, as i ALWAYS use kodak 400 film and for these photos > i want to have quaility and who better than Kodak, its damn expensive > though!!!!! > > Simon Angell > Canberra ACT > ICQ# 128920513 > www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001/ > and the site in development > www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/ > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" > To: > Sent: Monday, January 28, 2002 3:55 PM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Realtime AWS observations available in new format. > > > > Good day Laurier, I just had a look at your new site .It looks fanastic > > .Hope that it can extend to us in the ACT .Will keep you posted if we get > > any sig wx It has been very quiet here only some iso Cb to south and > > southwest on Saturday.Looks if the rainband over the Riverina will dispate > > before reaching us.We are in urgent need of rain-now into our second well > > below averge month rainfall wise. > > Gavin ,Southside Whr Watch ,Canberra. > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Laurier Williams" > > To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" > > Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 11:55 AM > > Subject: aus-wx: Realtime AWS observations available in new format. > > > > > > > Sydney observations for the past 6 hours are now available on the > > > observations tag of the Sydney Briefing page at Australian Weather News. > > > They are experimental at present and only being updated irregularly. > > Regular > > > updating will begin late January. > > > > > > You need to access the new host site version of AWN to get to them, and > > with > > > some problems occurring in transferring to the new host at present it is > > > best to use the direct IP address: http://66.186.211.80/. Or you can go > > > direct to the Sydney Weather Briefing page at > > > http://66.186.211.80/wxbr/nsw/sydney_index.htm > > > > > > The data files are now being generated for all Australian rainfall > > > districts, but obviously won't get linked into their respective district > > > weather briefing pages until I create those pages ;) but in the > meantime, > > > you can access the raw AWS data files at > http://66.186.211.80/wxbr/awsobs/ > > > then click the link to your rainfall district. There are maps showing > > > rainfall districts at > > ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon2/home/ncc/metadata/sitemaps/ > > > in case you don't know your rainfall district. > > > > > > I'd appreciate any feedback on this formatting of AWS observations -- I > > > think it's the first time they've been on the net formatted this way. > Wind > > > >= 40km/h and rain >=6mm/h is highlighted. > > > > > > Cheers > > > > > > Laurier Williams > > > Australian Weather News > > > http://www.australianweathernews.com > > > but for the moment, use http://66.186.211.80/ > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 10:02:03 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Good Rain in Canberra and the South East We at Southside Weather Watch were pleased to wake to the sound of downpipes running this morning. We had a series of good storms on Saturday pm with 19.9 mm by 8am Sunday. None were severe but quite spectacular to watch.We have had steady rain from late evening Sunday with 21.1 mm to 8am Monday and still raining .Figures for the local AWS are Canberra A/P the 3rd a total of 8.4 mm .On the 4th 23.mm . Tuggeranong (about 5 km west of us 35.8 mm on the 3rd ; most of that (29mm ) in a tstorm Sat pm and 9.0 mm to 9am today Monday We agree with you that good rains are on the way but I think you guys on the coast will get most of it, particularly if a surface low develops of the the Hunter.The surface trough seems to lie west of Wagga /Dubbo and if it moves eastward we might see a clearance before we get a good drenching.On the other hand the upper trough might generate Tstorms for us by Tuesday pm? Regards Gavin O'Brien. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jimmy Deguara" To: Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 7:25 AM Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW > Hi all, > > I am of the opinion that there will be some substantial rainfall in eastern > NSW over the next few days. And it seems there is cyclogenisis expected to > occur. We also have a very fresh E flow expected to developed which will > help maintain the backbuilding effect of the system as it nears the coast. > It will also pump a fir bit of moisture into the system. There is > sufficient cold air aloft that thunderstorms will continue to develop > inland and thence get carried as rain and embedded thunderstorms. It seems > the low according to the models is going to develop somewhere off the > Hunter Coast but will it move S? > > Time will tell. If we get substantial rainfall to cause major flooding, it > will be the first in 10 years here in Sydney. The last time we had major > flooding was in early February 1992 - what a coincidence. > > Raining steadily outside at the moment all a part of the NW cloud band but > the rain will persist and become more organised and enhanced once the E > flow develops. This E flow by the way is fairly deep going up to and higher > than the 850hPa level. > > Shall see what happens. > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Richard Maslin" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hail noise. Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 11:18:06 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Clyve, wondering if you could give me some more info on where the 4.2cm hail fell in Melbourne on the weekend.  Appreciate your comments.
Regards Vanessa
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, February 03, 2002 12:49 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Hail noise.

Hi all.
How many of you have experienced the different sounds that hail makes on different objects and building material, its not often that you can experience this in a single severe storm. The spectacular thunderstorm/storms that moved over Melbourne on Friday night was such an experience,at first these storms looked like good rather highbased end of the day type stuff with nice photogenic rain shafts, some were back lit by the setting sun, all were remarkably slow moving,also absent was any appreciable shear!,but after 7pm the mid levels were by now very nicely primed and explosive. The Melbourne hail storm evolved near to the back end of a weakening cell that had edged slowly towards the CBD at around 7.05pm, the intensifying updraft was hidden by falling rain encroaching onto the city, after about 10 minutes of moderate rain with very large drops (each drop would probably have put 0.2mm into the gauge) there came a barrage of smaller than pea sized hail, the sound, like small metallic pings..after a few minutes the sound changed to a slightly louder, but with a distinctive increase in the bass level, almost as if someone had turned down the treble and increased the bass control this was associated with larger than pea sized hail. The tempo then suddenly slowed the beat halved as larger and less in number 1cm to 2 cm hail started to make  very noticeable bangs (this symphony of sounds was occurring on the large corrugated roof area of Flinders street railway station..) and then the 1812 overture started ...as the hail fall rate slowed again far less but larger stones pelted the tin roofs with a sound I can only describe as like a 21 gun cannon salute these larger stones sounded incredible, some were shattering making a sound not unlike a cymbal being hit, others bounced and made progressively less noise as they skipped across the roofs..and then silence for a few minutes then back into a thin metallic sound of small hail..... A few minutes later the main updraft core move directly over the CBD of Melbourne complete with infeed band and a slowly rotating high based wall cloud fronted by a magnificent orange glowing hail and rain shaft.... all this without any significant shear!!.................regards Clyve Herbert.
 
P.S. I can only just imagine what the Sydney hail storm would have sounded like with up to 10cm hail!!,  the largest measured hail in Melbourne on Friday was 4.2cm........
From: "Godsman, Andrew AG" To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain NSW Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 07:03:07 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
My total for yesterday at Wollongong between 5am and 7pm was 102.8mm, with only a small 9.3mm again overnight to 6am this morning. The rain is starting to pick up again as I type after a lull, so today might be like yesterday where it rained all day again after a rain free night. 168mm MTD which is a third of the total for our wettest Feb in 30 years at Wollongong (AWS records).
 
Cheers
Andrew Godsman
-----Original Message-----
From: Keith Barnett [mailto:kbarnett at bigpond.net.au]
Sent: Monday, 4 February 2002 8:39 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW

I think we have a small low off the coast..probably too small to show up much on the charts..I don't think we get a weather map until 10pm. But it's blowing almost a gale here at times. The rain is coming in fits and starts..have had another 22mm since 6.45pm. Total since last night 71mm, or over twice the total for the whole of January.
Just for interest, a fall of 100 mm in 24 hours in February here is likely one year in 13...so we mightn't be far off..
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 8:14 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain NSW

About 7pmish the same thing happened here. It had been still and drizzly for most the day, and then a wind chage of sorts spung up and since then it has been torrential. I have just been for a drive and there is heaps and heaps of localised flooding between Richmond and Penrith (northern-londonderry-windsor rds). Remembering that inland around here doesn't cope with heavy rain as well as the coastal strip. I am staying at Cranebrook atm on a rather large rural property and dams which were empty and the begining of the year, are now spilling over.
 
More to follow.
 
dann
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 6:53 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Rain NSW

As a postscript to my last message, something's brewing up..the winds have turned southeast and are freshening and the low scud cloud under the higher overcast has quite rapid vertical motion...it's just forming out of nothing and rising into the stuff above it..

EOM


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X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p708-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.142.200] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Tue, 05 Feb 2002 07:39:42 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Rain Schofields Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Just got a shock when I measured rainfall this morning. We had 76.6mm of rain. This is useful rain too - grass turning green. More thunderstorms in the Central West and NW Slopes are acting as a trigger for the developing cloud mass and more rain can be expected. ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Tamworth faults Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 09:46:59 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 05/02/2002 09:46:59 AM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


HI All.

Anyone around N of Tamworth with no power, major 66kv fault from power station. Unknown time for power to be restored.. Major storm in area of Armidale.

Outages also Narromine/Trangie areas.

Dave
Bathurst.


This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Glen O'Riley" To: "Weather List Aussie" Subject: aus-wx: Flooding Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 09:50:17 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Well folks, for the first time in years our creek is doing more than just running, we can't even see the bridge we have to use to get out. It hasn't stopped raining since yesterda morning. We needed it and the creek needed a good flush out. Now it can stop but I can't see that happening. So looks like we are stuck in our house. Lucky we are on a hill. --------------------- Glen O'Riley Computer Technician goriley at tsn.cc www.linx.iwarp.com -------------------- Storm Chaser Firefighter SES Volunteer CB Radio Monitor ------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\Glen Patrick O'Riley.vcf" Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 19:25:57 -0500 (EST) From: "Glen O'Riley" To: "Weather List Aussie" Subject: aus-wx: Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 11:18:55 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello folks, there has been 91mm of rain here (near Taree) since 20:00hrs last night. --------------------- Glen O'Riley Computer Technician goriley at tsn.cc www.linx.iwarp.com -------------------- Storm Chaser Firefighter SES Volunteer CB Radio Monitor ------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\Glen Patrick O'Riley1.vcf" From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aus Wx" Subject: aus-wx: TC Chris Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 11:50:44 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, Following on from the discussion about building standards in the tropics and such, the present TC Chris (Cat 4)- such strength would probably test the strength of most buildings. TC Chris has potential to become Cat 5 if it stays over the ocean for more than 12 hours, although its present track favours crossing the coast NE of Port (hopefully over uninhabited areas), there are few buildings designed to withstand a Cat 5 cyclone, and I'd keep a serious eye on the progress of TC Chris!!!! Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 12:18:42 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > Morning all, > > Following on from the discussion about building standards in the tropics and > such, the present TC Chris (Cat 4)- such strength would probably test the > strength of most buildings. > > TC Chris has potential to become Cat 5 if it stays over the ocean for more > than 12 hours, although its present track favours crossing the coast NE of > Port (hopefully over uninhabited areas), there are few buildings designed to > withstand a Cat 5 cyclone, and I'd keep a serious eye on the progress of TC > Chris!!!! > The only known instance of a significant settlement in Australia being subjected to Category 5 conditions was Exmouth in Vance (1999) - and even then Exmouth was on the less dangerous western flank. (There have, of course, been numerous other category 5 landfalls, but none made a direct hit on a significant town). As far as high tides are concerned, the astronomical high tides at Port Hedland are at (all times WST): Today: 1551 (6.2m) Tomorrow: 0417 (5.3), 1642 (5.8) Thursday: 0530 (4.8), 1809 (5.3) From what I've seen the highest astronomical tide at Port Hedland is around 7.5m, so the scenario could be significantly worse than it is. There's a 3-4 metre difference between high and low tide. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: More thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 11:47:22 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Phil, I wonder though, if the mere existence of folk doing long range weather forecasting is sufficient for some people to puchase their services. There are for example, a number of devices one can purchase to "improve" fuel consumption in cars - which consist of nothing more than a magnet or two wrapped around the fuel line and some nice packaging. People buy these and swear by them, even when there is no scientific proof whatsoever that they do anything at all. As a scientist, for me to be a true believer in the influence of the Moon on weather, I need to understand the physical processes involved. There can be no question that the Sun is the primary motivator of the atmosphere. This source of heat is the reason behind the temperature differences beween the Poles & the Equator, day and night, ocean vs land, etc.. The Sun drives the enormous convection engines that stir the atmosphere into life, which in turn leads to the circulations such as the trade winds, jet streams, etc.. One has to ask, what role the moon plays? Unless there is some other physical 'force' about which we know nothing, the only two which spring to mind are reflected radiation and gravity. Anyone who has camped outside under a full moon on a freezingly cold winter night can attest to the fact that very little heat is supplied through re-radiation of sunlight! The gravitational pull in comparison, is considerable, causing tides in the Earth itself, the oceans and the atmosphere. One could imagine perhaps, that having oceans rising and falling several meters would displace quite a lot of atmosphere and maybe this causes the air to flow from high tide regions to low tide regions. But then again, the gravitational effect on mass is always the same, thus the atmosphere is pulled along with the oceans and the earth, and the net effect is pretty mnuch zero. Therefore I am led to conclude that if the moon does sigificantly influence weather, then it may be by some application of chaos theory or resonant effect. Chaos theory applies to highly non-linear dynamic systems like the atmosphere and explains why we may never be able to accurately forecast conditions more than about 10 days ahead, given even the fastest computers and most accurate models. But it maybe that tiny lunar influences applied over a wide area, magnify through chaos event progression to become a large scale significant influence. The other way that a tiny event can build into a significant event is by resonance. Maybe the repetitive nature of the Moon's influence builds and maintains a high altitude resonant wave in the atmosphere which in turn acts to influence and coordinate lower level systems, from whence cometh the 7 day change cycle often observed in mid-latitudes... But this is just pure guesswork, as is, I fear, most long range forecasting. It amuses me that Ken uses a statistical argument to dismiss the results of the 1 month "Ken vs the Rngs" comparison, on the basis that the sample was "too small to be taken seriously", yet he is unwilling to submit to a longer term statistical analysis which would determine whether his method is indeed better than pure guesswork as claimed. One would presume that if he claims to be better than chance, then he has done the analysis to prove this. Therefore there is no reason why this should not be shared with the scientific community so that he can gain the accreditation deserved. Regards, John W. >snip -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Phil Smith Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 11:37 PM To: Aussie-Weather Subject: aus-wx: Some thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate I have watched with great interest the ongoing debate about long-range forecasting. I was scientifically trained originally and since my schooldays have been very interested in weather and whether or not it can be accurately forecast either long term or short term. I just want to share a few thoughts based on observations and reading over the past five decades or so. The scientific and meteorological communities are excellent at nowcasting (telling us what today's weather is), pretty good at getting tomorrow's right and just okay at the next day's. From then on out to five and seven day forecasts it's pretty much downhill - as the day gets nearer, the forecast for it tends to change. They really provide an excellent service for the person who is asking "What will the weather do for the footy this arvo?" They generally do not attempt to provide accurate long range forecasts. Ken Ring and others (such as Lennox Walker) provide a very valuable service (for which they quite rightly charge fees and are well paid by their clients) in showing the days (or windows as Carl puts it) of likelihood of rain months and years in advance. They never claim the "spot-on" reliability that the scientists seem to expect of them. I remember as a kid that every farmer for miles around would consult the phase and position of the moon to decide which date to start their ploughing, seeding, etc. and that they would all look up what Inigo Jones said in the Weekly Times, but none of them ever paid much attention to what the (then) Weather Bureau said for such planning. On the other hand, if they were taking Saturday arvo off to go to the footy, then they would look at the Weather Bureau's forecast for the day. Similarly, I see that the Chinese people here where I live have and make good use of a very sensible Lunar calendar which itself assists in predicting with very high accuracy exactly when the major weather changes will occur. You appear to have to know the long-term weather history of the exact location under study to really use it, and the skill seems to be passed from father to son down through the generations. All I can conclude is that the moon has some sort of very definite effect on the weather for a given location. What I cannot understand is why these city-bound scientists can't see the relevance of it; it is as though they have been brainwashed to be unable to see the connections. It seems to me as though some sort of application of lunar observations may well serve to make the BoM forecasts even more accurate. Perhaps they could achieve an even higher hit-rate for accurate forecasts. However, I don't think I want to see the BoM, the NWS or the HKO attempting to do the LR work. Rather I would like to see them refer LR weather inquiries to the true specialists such as Ken Ring, the Walkers, and those guys in the States who are doing the LR lunar-based work (I have forgotten the names - read about them a couple of years ago) who are really fulfilling a quite different function. The competition we have been watching over the past month is therefore somewhat like trying to compare an apple with an orange. The BoM should never be pitted against Ken Ring. When you want accurate scientific data to organise this afternoon's storm- chasing you will get it from the BoM. If you need to apply six months in advance for the exact date of your two weeks annual leave and you want to see the best possible chasing weather in TDU, you will contact Ken Ring or his mates. Phil +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: RE: aus-wx: More thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 13:34:49 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com John typed a short while ago: > One has to ask, what role the moon plays? Unless there is some other > physical 'force' about which we know nothing, the only two which spring to > mind are reflected radiation and gravity. Anyone who has camped outside > under a full moon on a freezingly cold winter night can attest to the fact > that very little heat is supplied through re-radiation of sunlight! The > gravitational pull in comparison, is considerable, causing tides in the > Earth itself, the oceans and the atmosphere. There are two potentially fruitful questions one can ask here: (1) How significant is the moon's gravitational force and radiation __relative to__ all other forces acting on the atmosphere (2) Given a situation where one of the moon's forces has relative significance, how ``differential'' is its influence(*) (*): I could exert a significant but relatively uniform force on a system that gives me virtually no discriminative abilities -- the entire physical system is affected fairly uniformly leaving gradient-driven processes largely unaffected The best I can come up with w.r.t. the moon is the atmospheric tides as manifest in the surface pressure field in lower latitudes. The road from atmospheric tides to rainfall is a long and windy one, though. Cheers, Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.0.101.2] From: "David Croan" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Last years US Chase - Is this us? Date: Tue, 05 Feb 2002 15:15:50 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Feb 2002 04:15:50.0639 (UTC) FILETIME=[CB8B5FF0:01C1ADFB] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I just received Sam's Barricklow's 2001 highlights tape which will leave you in no doubt as to who it is :) Also, his footage is just fantastic - he got right up close with the tornado - very close; really awesome footage. _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p708-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.142.200] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Tue, 05 Feb 2002 15:50:06 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Last years US Chase - Is this us? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Excellent David, Bring it to the next NSW ASWA meeting video night 16th February 2002. Matt Smith's old residence at Burwood. Cheers Jimmy Deguara At 03:15 PM 5/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >I just received Sam's Barricklow's 2001 highlights tape which will leave >you in no doubt as to who it is :) Also, his footage is just fantastic - >he got right up close with the tornado - very close; really awesome footage. > >_________________________________________________________________ >Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >message. >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Chris Daley" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Pictures of last Friday Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 16:02:24 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Fantastic photo's Luke, the lightning shot's came out great and the two photo's of the mammatus look good.
 
Chris
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Luke
To: WX
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 10:08 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Pictures of last Friday

Hey all
 
Here are some photos of last Friday (the storms that hit the Geelong/Melb area) at 2000 hrs
 
 
First attempt at capturing lightning with an SLR (210 mm zoom) what do you all think?
 
Thanks for the Web space Jane!!!!
 
Luke Garde
ASWA - Victoria
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hail noise. Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 16:40:58 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Feb 2002 05:42:55.0875 (UTC) FILETIME=[F6071D30:01C1AE07] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Vanessa.
Most of the hail that fell around Melbourne extended from Laverton through Newport and then across the southern half of the CBD, hail also affected the near southern suburbs and sporadically across the eastern suburbs. The hail size varied between small (pea size) and up too 2cm, however there were observations of hail up to golf ball size (4+cm) from along Spencer street and along the extreme south side of the CBD including Flinders street and southbank. There are some unconfirmed reports of broken windows from large hail around the Balaclava area.. The structure of the large hail (4cm)was interesting, some were conglomerates and appeared larger than 4cm (combination of several smaller hailstones)while others were true singular large hailstones up to 4.2cm, these larger stones were very sparse and when handled some were strangely slushy in nature others were harder. The slushy stones may have indicated that they were close to 'end of life' after falling more than 13.000ft in progressively warmer air above the freezing point, all stones were rapidly melting. Apart from some trees being leaf stripped I heard of no significant damage caused by this hail event. regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 11:18 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hail noise.

Hi Clyve, wondering if you could give me some more info on where the 4.2cm hail fell in Melbourne on the weekend.  Appreciate your comments.
Regards Vanessa
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, February 03, 2002 12:49 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Hail noise.

Hi all.
How many of you have experienced the different sounds that hail makes on different objects and building material, its not often that you can experience this in a single severe storm. The spectacular thunderstorm/storms that moved over Melbourne on Friday night was such an experience,at first these storms looked like good rather highbased end of the day type stuff with nice photogenic rain shafts, some were back lit by the setting sun, all were remarkably slow moving,also absent was any appreciable shear!,but after 7pm the mid levels were by now very nicely primed and explosive. The Melbourne hail storm evolved near to the back end of a weakening cell that had edged slowly towards the CBD at around 7.05pm, the intensifying updraft was hidden by falling rain encroaching onto the city, after about 10 minutes of moderate rain with very large drops (each drop would probably have put 0.2mm into the gauge) there came a barrage of smaller than pea sized hail, the sound, like small metallic pings..after a few minutes the sound changed to a slightly louder, but with a distinctive increase in the bass level, almost as if someone had turned down the treble and increased the bass control this was associated with larger than pea sized hail. The tempo then suddenly slowed the beat halved as larger and less in number 1cm to 2 cm hail started to make  very noticeable bangs (this symphony of sounds was occurring on the large corrugated roof area of Flinders street railway station..) and then the 1812 overture started ...as the hail fall rate slowed again far less but larger stones pelted the tin roofs with a sound I can only describe as like a 21 gun cannon salute these larger stones sounded incredible, some were shattering making a sound not unlike a cymbal being hit, others bounced and made progressively less noise as they skipped across the roofs..and then silence for a few minutes then back into a thin metallic sound of small hail..... A few minutes later the main updraft core move directly over the CBD of Melbourne complete with infeed band and a slowly rotating high based wall cloud fronted by a magnificent orange glowing hail and rain shaft.... all this without any significant shear!!.................regards Clyve Herbert.
 
P.S. I can only just imagine what the Sydney hail storm would have sounded like with up to 10cm hail!!,  the largest measured hail in Melbourne on Friday was 4.2cm........
Date: Tue, 05 Feb 2002 16:53:51 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Stunning Cb photos Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com  
Nice stuff Robert! Always worth heading out, the more you chase the more your hit rate increases :) (always good when storms occur on the weekend as well )

Luke - Nice pics for your first attempt at lightning well done =)

Clyve - Where are some images of the hail! :)

Matt Smith

Robert Goler wrote:

Hi all

Here are my pics from SE NSW from Saturday:

http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_02/today.html

They include a small funnel and that cell that Nick saw (see below), but
as seen from the north.

On Sun, 3 Feb 2002, Nick Sykes wrote:

> Hey All
>
> Yesterday I went chasing up in NE Vic and just into NSW.
>
> At sunset I saw what was probably the most beautiful Cb I have ever seen. I
> was in perfect location and time to see this Cb lit up by the setting sun.
> It was located over Lake Hume.
>
> http://www.pbase.com/njsykes/feb_2&page=all
>
> The Cb was huge, so big i couldn't get it in my digi lens even though I was
> some distance away. I took some pics with my SLR and hopefully it just
> squeezed into the frame.
>

Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler

School of Mathematical Sciences
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

ph. +61 3 9905 4424
email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

--

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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 17:12:01 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Feb 2002 06:13:55.0586 (UTC) FILETIME=[4A807E20:01C1AE0C] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all tropos. TC Chris at 1630 is showing a classic look of a mean tropical cyclone, now at cat 4 and still deepening pressure at the centre around 927hpa winds max up to 265kph, there is still some risk of cat 5 later tonight although I think this system may max out at the higher end of cat 4, the tracking of this TC still seems to be south southwest which puts it at the moment making landfall between (wide) Port Headland and Wallal downs and a core central track through or near to Pardoo Roadhouse later tonight or early tomorrow. This TC is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS and hopefully will change coarse or move across uninhabited regions. Another area showing persistent positive convection is just east of Cape Wessel off the NT coast although upper divergence is rather weak. best regards Clyve Herbert. ----- Original Message ----- From: Blair Trewin To: Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 12:18 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris > > > > Morning all, > > > > Following on from the discussion about building standards in the tropics and > > such, the present TC Chris (Cat 4)- such strength would probably test the > > strength of most buildings. > > > > TC Chris has potential to become Cat 5 if it stays over the ocean for more > > than 12 hours, although its present track favours crossing the coast NE of > > Port (hopefully over uninhabited areas), there are few buildings designed to > > withstand a Cat 5 cyclone, and I'd keep a serious eye on the progress of TC > > Chris!!!! > > > > The only known instance of a significant settlement in Australia > being subjected to Category 5 conditions was Exmouth in Vance (1999) - > and even then Exmouth was on the less dangerous western flank. > > (There have, of course, been numerous other category 5 landfalls, but > none made a direct hit on a significant town). > > As far as high tides are concerned, the astronomical high tides at > Port Hedland are at (all times WST): > > Today: 1551 (6.2m) > Tomorrow: 0417 (5.3), 1642 (5.8) > Thursday: 0530 (4.8), 1809 (5.3) > > From what I've seen the highest astronomical tide at Port Hedland > is around 7.5m, so the scenario could be significantly worse than > it is. There's a 3-4 metre difference between high and low tide. > > Blair > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Fw: aus-wx: TC Chris Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 17:41:37 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Feb 2002 06:43:30.0766 (UTC) FILETIME=[6C9776E0:01C1AE10] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com ----- Original Message ----- From: Clyve Herbert To: Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 5:12 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris > Hi all tropos. > TC Chris at 1630 is showing a classic look of a mean tropical cyclone, now > at cat 4 and still deepening pressure at the centre around 927hpa winds max > up to 265kph, there is still some risk of cat 5 later tonight although I > think this system may max out at the higher end of cat 4, the tracking of > this TC still seems to be south southwest which puts it at the moment making > landfall between (wide) Port Headland and Wallal downs and a core central > track through or near to Pardoo Roadhouse later tonight or early tomorrow. > This TC is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS and hopefully will change coarse or move > across uninhabited regions. Another area showing persistent positive > convection is just east of Cape Wessel off the NT coast although upper > divergence is rather weak. best regards Clyve Herbert. > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Blair Trewin > To: > Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 12:18 PM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris > > > > > > > > Morning all, > > > > > > Following on from the discussion about building standards in the tropics > and > > > such, the present TC Chris (Cat 4)- such strength would probably test > the > > > strength of most buildings. > > > > > > TC Chris has potential to become Cat 5 if it stays over the ocean for > more > > > than 12 hours, although its present track favours crossing the coast NE > of > > > Port (hopefully over uninhabited areas), there are few buildings > designed to > > > withstand a Cat 5 cyclone, and I'd keep a serious eye on the progress of > TC > > > Chris!!!! > > > > > > > The only known instance of a significant settlement in Australia > > being subjected to Category 5 conditions was Exmouth in Vance (1999) - > > and even then Exmouth was on the less dangerous western flank. > > > > (There have, of course, been numerous other category 5 landfalls, but > > none made a direct hit on a significant town). > > > > As far as high tides are concerned, the astronomical high tides at > > Port Hedland are at (all times WST): > > > > Today: 1551 (6.2m) > > Tomorrow: 0417 (5.3), 1642 (5.8) > > Thursday: 0530 (4.8), 1809 (5.3) > > > > From what I've seen the highest astronomical tide at Port Hedland > > is around 7.5m, so the scenario could be significantly worse than > > it is. There's a 3-4 metre difference between high and low tide. > > > > Blair > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [198.142.23.129] From: "Karl Lijnders" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Vic 3rd Week of Storms Date: Tue, 05 Feb 2002 17:47:29 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Feb 2002 06:47:30.0141 (UTC) FILETIME=[FB4530D0:01C1AE10] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey everyone, I have left it to now just to see whats happening with the upper level trough through S NSW, but now as that begins to slowly weaken it is clearing the skies and allowing another trough to deepen in W Victoria for Thursday and Friday. I can't really see it being a repeat of last weeks episode, which was incredible an amazing experience, but it certainly keep us all from having withdrawals. Whats everyones thoughts on the upcoming storm event? Karl (4S) _________________________________________________________________ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Nick Sykes" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Pictures of last Friday (new pics) Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 18:29:18 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Nice lightning pics Luke, great frist go. O.K I have finally got around to going through my pics from the severe storms that swept through Melbourne last Friday the 1st Feb. To view all of the pics click here http://www.pbase.com/njsykes/feb_1&page=all (click to enlarge) Some came out nicely, the sunset ones are from mordiallic beach looking at one of the beast cells of the night. This cell later dropped hail on us (note the colour of the base). Nick Sykes +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [211.28.131.130] From: "Karl Lijnders" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Pictures of last Friday (new pics) Date: Tue, 05 Feb 2002 18:48:11 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Feb 2002 07:48:11.0703 (UTC) FILETIME=[75CF7470:01C1AE19] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey Nick, Fantastic shots, it was just as impressive from Frankston where I also took pictures of an amazing sunset, the sheets of rain were almost stationary for a while. Looked very tropical Karl:) >From: "Nick Sykes" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Pictures of last Friday (new pics) >Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 18:29:18 +1100 > >Nice lightning pics Luke, great frist go. > >O.K I have finally got around to going through my pics from the severe >storms that swept through Melbourne last Friday the 1st Feb. > >To view all of the pics click here > >http://www.pbase.com/njsykes/feb_1&page=all (click to enlarge) > >Some came out nicely, the sunset ones are from mordiallic beach looking at >one of the beast cells of the night. This cell later dropped hail on us >(note the colour of the base). > >Nick Sykes > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: "Aussie weather" Subject: aus-wx: Holiday pictures Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 19:03:10 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Feb 2002 08:05:12.0376 (UTC) FILETIME=[D62DCB80:01C1AE1B] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, although my holiday pictures are not all weather related i will "adveritise" them here (and Wz forum)... These 2 are however very weather related.... (they should be working by 7:30pm) The best picture www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/temp/bestpic.jpg Another one www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/temp/another1.jpg tell me what you think.... They are from Port vila, as i was leaving last week!!!! Cheers Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001/ and the site in development www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Duncan & Mandy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 18:18:16 +1030 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Did I say something about when is there going to be a cyclone of NW W.A?! Looks spectacular on the Broom radar (did) and the Port Headland Radar. Looking forward to the probable dumping of rain in Central Aust. We've already had some light stuff, with heavy cloud cover. Cheers, duncan Alice Springs ----- Original Message ----- From: "Blair Trewin" To: Sent: Tuesday, 5 February 2002 11:48 am Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris > > > > Morning all, > > > > Following on from the discussion about building standards in the tropics and > > such, the present TC Chris (Cat 4)- such strength would probably test the > > strength of most buildings. > > > > TC Chris has potential to become Cat 5 if it stays over the ocean for more > > than 12 hours, although its present track favours crossing the coast NE of > > Port (hopefully over uninhabited areas), there are few buildings designed to > > withstand a Cat 5 cyclone, and I'd keep a serious eye on the progress of TC > > Chris!!!! > > > > The only known instance of a significant settlement in Australia > being subjected to Category 5 conditions was Exmouth in Vance (1999) - > and even then Exmouth was on the less dangerous western flank. > > (There have, of course, been numerous other category 5 landfalls, but > none made a direct hit on a significant town). > > As far as high tides are concerned, the astronomical high tides at > Port Hedland are at (all times WST): > > Today: 1551 (6.2m) > Tomorrow: 0417 (5.3), 1642 (5.8) > Thursday: 0530 (4.8), 1809 (5.3) > > >From what I've seen the highest astronomical tide at Port Hedland > is around 7.5m, so the scenario could be significantly worse than > it is. There's a 3-4 metre difference between high and low tide. > > Blair > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: duckman.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 20:26:22 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Subject: aus-wx: Re: Pictures of last Friday- SYcam loop Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com And here's how the Sandringham Yacht Club webcam saw Friday evening: http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_01/sycamloop.gif (2.8Mb) > Fantastic shots, it was just as impressive from Frankston where I also took > pictures of an amazing sunset, the sheets of rain were almost stationary for > a while. Looked very tropical > Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "B Groughan" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 21:34:32 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Just got back on line after my move from the Hawkesbury district. We had 32mm for yesterday and a further 30mm until midday today and further heavy falls this arvo. --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by Expert Anti-Virus. Version: 6.0.312 / Virus Database: 173 - Release Date: 12/31/01 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting & barbeque map Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 21:54:12 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening all, for those of you who are planning to come to either the Victorian ASWA meeting on the 16th February starting with breakfast at ~8.30am at the Pancake Parlour on Doncaster Road, Doncaster, and / or you (and family and friends) are joining us for the barbeque afterwards, I have uploaded a map so that you have absolutely no excuse for not being there......the "I got lost" one won't work!! http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Feb02/pp.jpg in the bottom left hand corner (marked PP) is the Pancake Parlour, just up the hill from the Eastern Freeway,... and in the top right corner is the location of the barbeque (unless we get another storm like Friday, in which case, the barbequing will be up to you, because we'll be off stormchasing) - turn into the carpark on the left off Victoria Street, Doncaster. There are tables undercover & toilets & a bit of a view..... Please send me an RSVP as early as possible so that we know how many people (adults & children) will be coming to the a) meeting and / or b) barbeque and I can cater for them. Look forward to seeing absolutely everyone!! (as well as a few interstaters - one of whom is flying down for the day) for lots of photos, videos of summer chasing & Friday's storms as well as a tape of Queensland chase highlights. PS: Melbways refs: Pancake Parlour 47 C 1 Barbeque area 33 J 10 -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Paul Yole - Murtoa pyole at australia.edu ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Bussy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 22:16:56 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Don't mean to be rude but, where are you :-) 27.2mm here in NE vic ----- Original Message ----- From: "B Groughan" To: Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 9:34 PM Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" > Hi > Just got back on line after my move from the Hawkesbury district. We had > 32mm for yesterday and a further 30mm until midday today and further heavy > falls this arvo. > > --- > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. > Checked by Expert Anti-Virus. > Version: 6.0.312 / Virus Database: 173 - Release Date: 12/31/01 > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Bussy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting & barbeque map Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 22:27:59 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The Boy from the bush can't resist this. Where in the hell does this join Springhurst Road Rutherglen? Have you got a map reference? I can't seem to match my town map with this one :-)) There's more streets on this map than in my town! I got lost "would" be an excuse. Grin. I got lost going to the last one. Wonder if this would be any different? Bussy you are excused......... Draw a map with the trees on the corner and I'll make it. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 9:54 PM Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting & barbeque map > Evening all, > > for those of you who are planning to come to either the Victorian ASWA > meeting on the 16th February starting with breakfast at ~8.30am at the > Pancake Parlour on Doncaster Road, Doncaster, and / or you (and family > and friends) are joining us for the barbeque afterwards, I have uploaded > a map so that you have absolutely no excuse for not being there......the > "I got lost" one won't work!! > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Feb02/pp.jpg > > in the bottom left hand corner (marked PP) is the Pancake Parlour, just > up the hill from the Eastern Freeway,... and in the top right corner is > the location of the barbeque (unless we get another storm like Friday, > in which case, the barbequing will be up to you, because we'll be off > stormchasing) - turn into the carpark on the left off Victoria Street, > Doncaster. There are tables undercover & toilets & a bit of a view..... > > Please send me an RSVP as early as possible so that we know how many > people (adults & children) will be coming to the > a) meeting and / or > b) barbeque > and I can cater for them. > > Look forward to seeing absolutely everyone!! (as well as a few > interstaters - one of whom is flying down for the day) for lots of > photos, videos of summer chasing & Friday's storms as well as a tape of > Queensland chase highlights. > > > PS: Melbways refs: > Pancake Parlour 47 C 1 > Barbeque area 33 J 10 > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Paul Yole - Murtoa > pyole at australia.edu > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 22:47:51 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com PRIORITY TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24 Issued at 7:00 pm WST on Tuesday, 5 February 2002 BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH A WARNING is current for a category 4 cyclone for the coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland and inland to Nullagine and Telfer. The cyclone WATCH from Whim Creek to Mardie and inland to Tom Price and Pannawonica has been cancelled At 7pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Chris was located 90 kilometres north north west of Wallal and 240 kilometres north east of Port Hedland and was moving south south east at 10 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast near Wallal early on Wednesday morning. Very destructive winds with gusts to 260 kilometres per hour are expected near the cyclone centre as it crosses the coast. Gales with gusts to 125 kilometres per hour are expected in coastal communities between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland tonight, and extend further inland to Marble Bar and Telfer on Wednesday morning. Tides between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and dangerous flooding. Very heavy rain is expected to lead to flooding in the west Kimberley and eastern Pilbara. Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Chris at 7pm WST. Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of Latitude 19.0 South Longitude 120.4 East. Recent movement : South south east at 10 kilometres per hour. Central Pressure : 930 hPa. Maximum wind gusts : 260 kilometres per hour near the centre. Severity category : 4. The SES advises of the following community alerts: RED ALERT: Sandfire, Wallal, Pardoo, De Grey, Mandora. YELLOW ALERT: Warralong,Port Hedland,South Hedland,Yandeyarra,Marble Bar. BLUE ALERT: Nullagine, Telfer -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- ----- Original Message ----- From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 5:12 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris > Hi all tropos. > TC Chris at 1630 is showing a classic look of a mean tropical cyclone, now > at cat 4 and still deepening pressure at the centre around 927hpa winds max > up to 265kph, there is still some risk of cat 5 later tonight although I > think this system may max out at the higher end of cat 4, the tracking of > this TC still seems to be south southwest which puts it at the moment making > landfall between (wide) Port Headland and Wallal downs and a core central > track through or near to Pardoo Roadhouse later tonight or early tomorrow. > This TC is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS and hopefully will change coarse or move > across uninhabited regions. Another area showing persistent positive > convection is just east of Cape Wessel off the NT coast although upper > divergence is rather weak. best regards Clyve Herbert. > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Blair Trewin > To: > Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 12:18 PM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris > > > > > > > > Morning all, > > > > > > Following on from the discussion about building standards in the tropics > and > > > such, the present TC Chris (Cat 4)- such strength would probably test > the > > > strength of most buildings. > > > > > > TC Chris has potential to become Cat 5 if it stays over the ocean for > more > > > than 12 hours, although its present track favours crossing the coast NE > of > > > Port (hopefully over uninhabited areas), there are few buildings > designed to > > > withstand a Cat 5 cyclone, and I'd keep a serious eye on the progress of > TC > > > Chris!!!! > > > > > > > The only known instance of a significant settlement in Australia > > being subjected to Category 5 conditions was Exmouth in Vance (1999) - > > and even then Exmouth was on the less dangerous western flank. > > > > (There have, of course, been numerous other category 5 landfalls, but > > none made a direct hit on a significant town). > > > > As far as high tides are concerned, the astronomical high tides at > > Port Hedland are at (all times WST): > > > > Today: 1551 (6.2m) > > Tomorrow: 0417 (5.3), 1642 (5.8) > > Thursday: 0530 (4.8), 1809 (5.3) > > > > From what I've seen the highest astronomical tide at Port Hedland > > is around 7.5m, so the scenario could be significantly worse than > > it is. There's a 3-4 metre difference between high and low tide. > > > > Blair > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- - > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 00:06:11 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris - Cat 5! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. TC Chris now Cat 5, 915 hPa, with max gusts 290 km/hr! Looks like Wallal is going to cop it. BoM TCA#27 pasted below. Regards, Carl. IDW24100 BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE Radio Stations: please sound the emergency warning signal before broadcasting the following message. PRIORITY TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27 Issued at 10:00 pm WST on Tuesday, 5 February 2002 BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH A WARNING is current for a category 5 cyclone for the coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland and inland to Nullagine and Telfer. At 10pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Chris was located 70 kilometres north north west of Wallal and 225 kilometres east north east of Port Hedland and was moving south at 10 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast near Wallal in the early hours of Wednesday morning. Very destructive winds with gusts to 290 kilometres per hour are expected near the cyclone centre as it crosses the coast. Gales with gusts to 125 kilometres per hour are expected in coastal communities between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland tonight, and extend further inland to Marble Bar and Telfer on Wednesday morning. Tides between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and dangerous flooding. Very heavy rain is expected to lead to flooding in the west Kimberley and eastern Pilbara. Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Chris at 10pm WST. Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of Latitude 19.2 South Longitude 120.4 East. Recent movement : South at 10 kilometres per hour. Central Pressure : 915 hPa. Maximum wind gusts : 290 kilometres per hour near the centre. Severity category : 5. The SES advises of the following community alerts: RED ALERT: Sandfire, Wallal, Pardoo, De Grey, Mandora, Warralong, Marble Bar. YELLOW ALERT: Port Hedland,South Hedland,Yandeyarra. BLUE ALERT: Nullagine, Telfer The next warning will be issued at 11:00pm WST.Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by dialling 1300 659 210 A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0.2 Date: Tue, 05 Feb 2002 01:59:51 -0600 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, aussie-weather at world.std.com From: "Iain T. Johnstone" Subject: Re: Fw: aus-wx: TC Chris Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Very nice radar loop from Port Hedland now showing Chris clearly about 200km to the NW. How great for a native Sandgroper to be able to see this from the other side of the world! Needless to say, I hope everyone in that part of the woods remains safe. Cheers, Tom (from a -15C Wisconsin night). At 12:41 AM 2/5/02, Clyve Herbert wrote: >----- Original Message ----- >From: Clyve Herbert >To: >Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 5:12 PM >Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris > > > > Hi all tropos. > > TC Chris at 1630 is showing a classic look of a mean tropical cyclone, now > > at cat 4 and still deepening pressure at the centre around 927hpa winds >max > > up to 265kph, there is still some risk of cat 5 later tonight although I > > think this system may max out at the higher end of cat 4, the tracking of > > this TC still seems to be south southwest which puts it at the moment >making > > landfall between (wide) Port Headland and Wallal downs and a core central > > track through or near to Pardoo Roadhouse later tonight or early tomorrow. > > This TC is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS and hopefully will change coarse or move > > across uninhabited regions. Another area showing persistent positive > > convection is just east of Cape Wessel off the NT coast although upper > > divergence is rather weak. best regards Clyve Herbert. > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Blair Trewin > > To: > > Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 12:18 PM > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris > > > > > > > > > > > > Morning all, > > > > > > > > Following on from the discussion about building standards in the >tropics > > and > > > > such, the present TC Chris (Cat 4)- such strength would probably test > > the > > > > strength of most buildings. > > > > > > > > TC Chris has potential to become Cat 5 if it stays over the ocean for > > more > > > > than 12 hours, although its present track favours crossing the coast >NE > > of > > > > Port (hopefully over uninhabited areas), there are few buildings > > designed to > > > > withstand a Cat 5 cyclone, and I'd keep a serious eye on the progress >of > > TC > > > > Chris!!!! > > > > > > > > > > The only known instance of a significant settlement in Australia > > > being subjected to Category 5 conditions was Exmouth in Vance (1999) - > > > and even then Exmouth was on the less dangerous western flank. > > > > > > (There have, of course, been numerous other category 5 landfalls, but > > > none made a direct hit on a significant town). > > > > > > As far as high tides are concerned, the astronomical high tides at > > > Port Hedland are at (all times WST): > > > > > > Today: 1551 (6.2m) > > > Tomorrow: 0417 (5.3), 1642 (5.8) > > > Thursday: 0530 (4.8), 1809 (5.3) > > > > > > From what I've seen the highest astronomical tide at Port Hedland > > > is around 7.5m, so the scenario could be significantly worse than > > > it is. There's a 3-4 metre difference between high and low tide. > > > > > > Blair > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of >your > > > message. > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Tom Johnstone W.M. Keck Laboratory for Functional Brain Imaging and Behavior University of Wisconsin-Madison johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu +1 608 262 9230 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris - Cat 5! Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 05:14:44 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Feb 2002 18:25:34.0115 (UTC) FILETIME=[80106F30:01C1AE72] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Looks like the SSW track caught the BoM by surprise..Talk on IRC had me watching it move (on radar) SSW at about 9:50pm WST But the 10pm WST update still had it tracking South..... Its Almost over land now at 5:15am EDT, still tracking SSW and large area of Yellow and spots of green on the Radar... BoM warning at 2am WST IDW24100 BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE Radio Stations: please sound the emergency warning signal before broadcasting the following message. PRIORITY TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 31 Issued at 2:00 am WST on Wednesday, 6 February 2002 BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH A WARNING is current for a category 5 cyclone for the coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland and extends inland to Tom Price and Telfer. At 2.00am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Chris was located 45 kilometres west of Wallal and 180 kilometres east north east of Port Hedland and was moving south south west at 15 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Pardoo and Wallal between 4.00am and 5.00am this morning. Very destructive winds with gusts to 290 kilometres per hour are expected near the cyclone centre as it crosses the coast. Gales with gusts to 125 kilometres per hour are expected in coastal communities between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland this morning, and extend further inland to Tom Price, Marble Bar, Nullagine and Telfer during today. Tides between Pardoo and Wallal are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and dangerous flooding. Very heavy rain is expected to lead to flooding in the west Kimberley and eastern Pilbara. Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Chris at 2.00am WST. Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of Latitude 19.7 South Longitude 120.2 East. Recent movement : South south west at 15 kilometres per hour. Central Pressure : 915 hPa. Maximum wind gusts : 290 kilometres per hour near the centre. Severity category : 5. The SES advises of the following community alerts: RED ALERT: Sandfire, Wallal, Pardoo, De Grey, Mandora, Warralong, Marble Bar. YELLOW ALERT: Port Hedland, South Hedland, Yandeyarra. BLUE ALERT: Nullagine, Telfer. The next warning will be issued at 3.00 AM WST.Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by dialling 1300 659 210 Cheers Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001/ and the site in development www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/ AND THE NEW SITE WILL BE www.canberra-wx.com <----------Nothing there yet (except and index.htm) ----- Original Message ----- From: "Carl Smith" To: Sent: Wednesday, February 06, 2002 1:06 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris - Cat 5! > Hi All. > > TC Chris now Cat 5, 915 hPa, with max gusts 290 km/hr! > > Looks like Wallal is going to cop it. > > BoM TCA#27 pasted below. > > Regards, > Carl. > > IDW24100 > BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE > > Radio Stations: please sound the emergency warning signal before broadcasting > the following message. > > PRIORITY > > TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27 > Issued at 10:00 pm WST on Tuesday, 5 February 2002 > BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH > > A WARNING is current for a category 5 cyclone for the coastal areas between > Bidyadanga and Port Hedland and inland to Nullagine and Telfer. > > At 10pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Chris was located > 70 kilometres north north west of Wallal and > 225 kilometres east north east of Port Hedland and was > moving south at 10 kilometres per hour. > The cyclone is expected to cross the coast near Wallal in the early hours of > Wednesday morning. > > Very destructive winds with gusts to 290 kilometres per hour are expected near > the cyclone centre as it crosses the coast. Gales with gusts to 125 kilometres > per hour are expected in coastal communities between Bidyadanga and Port > Hedland > tonight, and extend further inland to Marble Bar and Telfer on Wednesday > morning. Tides between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga are likely to rise > significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and dangerous > flooding. Very heavy rain is expected to lead to flooding in the west Kimberley > and eastern Pilbara. > > Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Chris at 10pm WST. > Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of Latitude 19.2 South > Longitude 120.4 East. > Recent movement : South at 10 kilometres per hour. > Central Pressure : 915 hPa. > Maximum wind gusts : 290 kilometres per hour near the centre. > Severity category : 5. > > The SES advises of the following community alerts: > RED ALERT: Sandfire, Wallal, Pardoo, De Grey, Mandora, Warralong, Marble Bar. > YELLOW ALERT: Port Hedland,South Hedland,Yandeyarra. > BLUE ALERT: Nullagine, Telfer > The next warning will be issued at 11:00pm WST.Cyclone advices and State > Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by > dialling 1300 659 210 > > > A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: > http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone > > ~~~~~~~~~~ > Carl Smith. > Gold Coast. > Queensland. > Australia. > > Email: carls at qldnet.com.au > Current Tropical Cyclone information : > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris - Cat 5! Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 06:42:29 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Feb 2002 19:54:38.0850 (UTC) FILETIME=[F1C64620:01C1AE7E] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 6:50am EDT, 350am WST,eye starts to cross the coast Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 ---- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Sent: Wednesday, February 06, 2002 5:28 AM Subject: Fw: aus-wx: TC Chris - Cat 5! > TC Chris just about to cross the coast SW of Wallal Downs - the eye is > starting to bow as it approaches the coast & it's almost sliding > along....... > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Carl Smith" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, February 06, 2002 1:06 AM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris - Cat 5! > > > > Hi All. > > > > TC Chris now Cat 5, 915 hPa, with max gusts 290 km/hr! > > > > Looks like Wallal is going to cop it. > > > > BoM TCA#27 pasted below. > > > > Regards, > > Carl. > > > > IDW24100 > > BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > > WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE > > > > Radio Stations: please sound the emergency warning signal before > broadcasting > > the following message. > > > > PRIORITY > > > > TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27 > > Issued at 10:00 pm WST on Tuesday, 5 February 2002 > > BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > > TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH > > > > A WARNING is current for a category 5 cyclone for the coastal areas > between > > Bidyadanga and Port Hedland and inland to Nullagine and Telfer. > > > > At 10pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Chris was located > > 70 kilometres north north west of Wallal and > > 225 kilometres east north east of Port Hedland and was > > moving south at 10 kilometres per hour. > > The cyclone is expected to cross the coast near Wallal in the early > hours of > > Wednesday morning. > > > > Very destructive winds with gusts to 290 kilometres per hour are > expected near > > the cyclone centre as it crosses the coast. Gales with gusts to 125 > kilometres > > per hour are expected in coastal communities between Bidyadanga and > Port > > Hedland > > tonight, and extend further inland to Marble Bar and Telfer on > Wednesday > > morning. Tides between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga are likely to rise > > significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and > dangerous > > flooding. Very heavy rain is expected to lead to flooding in the west > Kimberley > > and eastern Pilbara. > > > > Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Chris at 10pm WST. > > Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of Latitude 19.2 South > > Longitude 120.4 East. > > Recent movement : South at 10 kilometres per hour. > > Central Pressure : 915 hPa. > > Maximum wind gusts : 290 kilometres per hour near the centre. > > Severity category : 5. > > > > The SES advises of the following community alerts: > > RED ALERT: Sandfire, Wallal, Pardoo, De Grey, Mandora, Warralong, > Marble Bar. > > YELLOW ALERT: Port Hedland,South Hedland,Yandeyarra. > > BLUE ALERT: Nullagine, Telfer > > The next warning will be issued at 11:00pm WST.Cyclone advices and > State > > Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by > > dialling 1300 659 210 > > > > > > A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: > > http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone > > > > ~~~~~~~~~~ > > Carl Smith. > > Gold Coast. > > Queensland. > > Australia. > > > > Email: carls at qldnet.com.au > > Current Tropical Cyclone information : > > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > > Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > > Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: > > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 05:56:36 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: Fw: aus-wx: TC Chris - Cat 5! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. >TC Chris just about to cross the coast SW of Wallal Downs - the eye is >starting to bow as it approaches the coast & it's almost sliding >along....... > >Jane The eye has started crossing the coast on the radar pic at 19:30 UTC. It moved along just off the coast away from Wallal before deciding to cross. In the 19:40UTC pic it has got nearly circular again. Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 06:28:51 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Strange Bulletin Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. One has to wonder what the lads at Pearl Harbor are taking this morning! Regards, Carl. TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN ABIO10 PGTW 051800 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/051800Z/061800Z FEB 02// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/05077ZHFEBH?2H LEF/XGVJMGNAVPWCMZTOCP PLQEMY HHARBOLGIK50752B FEBH?2H HAHRXLEF WHAND BTAHLTRMPLCNCBQGKLONZ WWRNINGZMH DMKL/5 1.5PMROH INDLAPLOCTAP AYENC.-?9/)05,8,'7?- 23'5?595,.-'5?96? WFRICA?:? W. ORMPWQAB CYQLONT SUVMAYYKACPONT= X.)OROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 050600Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8 78.7E2 AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 110 KNOTS GUSTING TO 135 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 050900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AT 050600Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7S6 120.1E4 AND WAS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 050900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2S1 42.4E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1S3 40.1E5, IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NO LONGER EVIDENT AND HAS BECOME A BROADER AREA OF TROUGHING. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITHIN THE TROUGHING REGION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS BENEATH A REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/BRYANT/JACOBS/KUMAGA// ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Godsman, Andrew AG" To: "'aussie weather (new)'" Subject: aus-wx: More Wollongong Rain Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 08:14:04 +1100 X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: <75F9F329329FD311820000805F15FA9604CC15B4 at itwol-msg01.itwol.bhp.com.au> X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi everyone, Well it just keeps on coming. Since 5am Monday morning I've so far recorded around 195mm from this rain event, (102.8mm Mon 5am-7pm, 9.3mm Mon 7pm-6am Tue, 76.5mm Tue 6am-7pm and 6.5mm Tue 7pm-5am Wed). Yesterday was particularly interesting given we essentially had very little rain after 12noon, so we were well on track for another 100+mm day. A question though, the pattern of having much higher rainfall during the day and for it to slack off during the night, why is this so? I've got a feeling that it may be something to do with the trough becoming more active during the day and sucking in more moisture from the east. The winds at night seem to calm down a bit, then on both days I have noticed just after or on sunrise the rain begins with a vengence and the wind picks up. This pattern was also seen back on Fri Feb 1st where we had arund 58mm during the day but only another 5mm overnight before clearing on Sat. Also of interest is the cold air downdrafts that are springing from some of these rain areas. As I ran home from work yesterday, and bit of a squall came in off the ocean and with the rain and sudden increase in winds the temp dropped around 3 degrees very rapidly. After the initial squall blew through things calmed down and persistent rain settled in for around another hour. During this time the temp recovered from around 15.5 degrees (5:30pm) to 18.7 degrees at about 8:30-9:00pm. This was after a top of only 19.2 degrees for the day. So it's been a beaut Feb so far. Close to 270m of rain, (107mm average, 481mm best result in 30 years) and with temps back down to high teens to low 20's, it has been a whole lot cooler for running in prep for the Canberra marathon in April. Keep bringing it on. Cheers Andrew Godsman EOM NOTICE - This message and any attached files may contain information that is confidential and/or subject of legal privilege intended only for use by the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient or the person responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, be advised that you have received this message in error and that any dissemination, copying or use of this message or attachment is strictly forbidden, as is the disclosure of the information therein. If you have received this message in error please notify the sender immediately and delete the message. Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\aus-wx More Wollongong Rain" From: "Peter Matters" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting & barbeque map Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 09:05:06 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Bussy, I am thinking of going - I live in Broadford - south of Seymour. If you want a lift email me privately at pkmatters at bigpond.com.au. Cheers Peter(didjman) +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: aus-wx: Vic Storms Today/Tomorrow - My Thoughts Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 12:38:29 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Feb 2002 01:41:22.0310 (UTC) FILETIME=[619A5A60:01C1AEAF] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,


What an interesting few days of weather it has been around the country! Severe storms in Vic last Friday, NE Vic and NSW on Saturday and then storms in inland NSW, NE NSW and across much of the SE and Central areas of QLD. Then we've had TC Chris which has generated some great discussions. WHAT A WEEK!!!!!! A few more of these would be nice.

Well.....today is an interesting day. A mid level low over SE NSW is weakening and drifting away although leaving some cooler mid-level temps across the E parts of the state. E - NE'ly flow across the E ranges today combined with some moderate sfc heating should kick off some weak convection over the ranges. I don't think we'll see anything too serious though - maybe the odd Cb over the Alpine National Park. The BoM have mentioned the far W of the state as being a chance today as well as the inland trough starts to deepen through the far far west of the state. Moisture levels out there are OK with DP's of 10-12C but I'm not totally convinced that there will be enough convergence along the trough for lift to kick off storms. Mt Gambier sounding shows some potential. A slight increase DP and a temp of about 28-30C will see things kick off today out west. Looking at this morning's Melbourne sounding temperatures of about 27-28C will be required with a PBL of about 10C to kick off storms on the ranges but again nothing of too much significance is expected. Looking to the NE around to the NW of Melbourne there is some Cu going up but a moist, warm layer between 750 and 700mb is causing these Cu to flatten out a bit. As it warms up these Cu should push through that layer but a second cap/inversion/warm layer at 600mb should see most Cu surpressed here. Any Cu that gets above that layer could potentially keep going and produce a weak storm.

I'll be watching from the comfort of my computer room, keeping an eye on the TC (no pun intended) and also on today's convection in the W of the state.

Tomorrow is another matter. Tomorrow (thurs) is looking *extremely* interesting IMO. A strong shortwave upper trough is progged to enter the W of the state during the afternoon. The sfc trough is progged to deepen further tomorrow and progress E'wards across Victoria, sitting close to Melbourne by about 8pm tomorrow night. NE to N'ly sfc flow into this trough should bring in some additional mositure. I'll be happy if I wake up to 13-15C DP's tomorrrow across central districts. 850 temps are progged to be between 10 and 14C (depending on which model you believe) giving potential sfc temps of about 26-34C across the state. Given those temps, the cap should be moderate, surpressing convection until mid afternoon. The upper level shortwave trough will see upper level temperatures cool to -17C at 500mb and -44C at 300mb (which is very nice for this time of year). Of note is the comparison b/w the YMML and YMTG soundings today. The YMML sounding is relatively moist all the way up whereas the YMTG sounding is quite dry above 800mb. If this dry air moves across western/central Victoria tomorrow (quite likely) we could see some very interesting storms develop. Shear is again marginal although IMO better than Friday just gone. The shear is strong enough IMO for organised storms to develop especially along the trough and other localised boundaries which may exist (ie the sea breeze). Given the progged shear, storms should move more ESE - E'ly tomorrow. There is also a chance of storms on the E and NE ranges tomorrow as well but these storms will be forming in a weakly sheared environment with somewhat less instability than the areas close to the trough. I think the best areas tomorrow will be along the trough given the upper level support pushing in. I'll be looking in the morning for places with additional moisture and as the day goes on also the sfc temps (the higher the better in both cases). Severe storms are possible in the eastern parts of the Western, Wimmera and Mallee districts and Central, North Central and Northern Country districts tomorrow for large hail (given the upper level temps and dry air i'd think hail to golf ball size is not out of the question), damaging winds (in the form of straight line winds and also a very slight chance of tornadoes) and also heavy rainfall is possible. There is also a *slight* chance of severe storms over the North East and Eastern districts for very heavy rainfall (given the weakly sheared environment but the moist sfc air).

I CAN CHASE TOMORROW!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!! I'll be looking at heading W tomorrow towards the trough. At the moment I'm thinking of targeting the general area of Geelong - Bendigo - Ararat but will re-assess this tonight and tomorrow morning.

Regards,

Andrew McDonald

(Macca)

From: "Peter Tristram" To: Subject: aus-wx: coffs Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 13:57:35 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
The north side of Coffs seems to be copping the brunt of another major rain event. Some falls over 300mm to 9am and the radar looks good for that again today. Severe low level flooding already reported on radio. The Bellinger Valley has missed the red patches - Repton 94mm to 9am and about 60mm since. The Coffs AWS had 135.6mm to 1pm after 162.6 to 9am. After such a long period without much decent rain, I think, flooding or not, everyone will be cheering. The most interesing feature has been the way the convection has hugged the coastline forming a band maybe 5km or so wide for some of the time, particularly south of Coffs. Yesterday arvo was a prime example with rain showers falling for an hour or so and the afternoon sun often shining through.
 
Peter
 

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From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: coffs To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 14:18:16 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Just wondering where the 300+ comes from - I haven't seen anything above 163 from the Coffs area? (although Laurieton got 232 and Port Macquarie 212). Very interesting how the heaviest rain is hugging the coast - I thought when I saw the numbers coming out of the AWSs at Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour that the sky was the limit for places like Dorrigo and Comboyne, but both largely missed out. Blair > This is a multi-part message in MIME format. > > ------=_NextPart_000_008F_01C1AF16.3B236040 > Content-Type: text/plain; > charset="Windows-1252" > Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > > The north side of Coffs seems to be copping the brunt of another major = > rain event. Some falls over 300mm to 9am and the radar looks good for = > that again today. Severe low level flooding already reported on radio. = > The Bellinger Valley has missed the red patches - Repton 94mm to 9am and = > about 60mm since. The Coffs AWS had 135.6mm to 1pm after 162.6 to 9am. = > After such a long period without much decent rain, I think, flooding or = > not, everyone will be cheering. The most interesing feature has been the = > way the convection has hugged the coastline forming a band maybe 5km or = > so wide for some of the time, particularly south of Coffs. Yesterday = > arvo was a prime example with rain showers falling for an hour or so and = > the afternoon sun often shining through. > > Peter > > > --- > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). > Version: 6.0.314 / Virus Database: 175 - Release Date: 11-01-02 > > ------=_NextPart_000_008F_01C1AF16.3B236040 > Content-Type: text/html; > charset="Windows-1252" > Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > > > > http-equiv=3DContent-Type> > > > > >
The north side of Coffs seems to be = > copping the=20 > brunt of another major rain event. Some falls over 300mm to 9am and the = > radar=20 > looks good for that again today. Severe low level flooding already = > reported on=20 > radio. The Bellinger Valley has missed the red patches - Repton 94mm to = > 9am and=20 > about 60mm since. The Coffs AWS had 135.6mm to 1pm after 162.6 to 9am. = > After=20 > such a long period without much decent rain, I think, flooding or not, = > everyone=20 > will be cheering. The most interesing feature has been the way the = > convection=20 > has hugged the coastline forming a band maybe 5km or so wide for some of = > the=20 > time, particularly south of Coffs. Yesterday arvo was a prime example = > with rain=20 > showers falling for an hour or so and the afternoon sun often shining=20 > through.
>
 
>
Peter
>
 
>

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> > ------=_NextPart_000_008F_01C1AF16.3B236040-- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Peter Tristram" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: coffs Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 15:03:36 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Just wondering where the 300+ comes from - I haven't seen anything > above 163 from the Coffs area? (although Laurieton got 232 and Port > Macquarie 212). > > Very interesting how the heaviest rain is hugging the coast - I > thought when I saw the numbers coming out of the AWSs at Port > Macquarie and Coffs Harbour that the sky was the limit for places like > Dorrigo and Comboyne, but both largely missed out. > > Blair Blair ABC local radio gave local phoned-in rainfall reports this morning. There are no official gauges in that area - if you've been to Coffs, it's where the mountains reach the sea from the Big Banana on for a few km (Kororo, Sapphire). Today's radar has been red in that area more on than off for hours again and the north side of Coffs is well flooded according to the radio with even the highway blocked. More cells are developing east of the Dorrigo escarpment again so there could be some massive 24hr falls if it sets in overnight again. Peter --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.314 / Virus Database: 175 - Release Date: 11-01-02 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Knock , Knock! Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 14:58:31 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Feb 2002 04:00:40.0422 (UTC) FILETIME=[D76D0860:01C1AEC2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all Tropos
Just as TC Chris has now moved ashore( and still showing up as severe over land 1500esst) a positive convective area that was east of Cape Wessel yesterday has now moved to be west of this area this afternoon and northeast of Darwin. There seems to be two rather large scale convective areas within this whole region one near to the NT central north coast and another well to the north. this region is showing rather good low to mid convergence but still lacks upper level divergent support but never the less seems to be a risk area for further development over the next 6 to 12 hours. Also the cut off upper low that has been plodding about the southeast of Australia over the past several days can be seen as a region of enhanced vorticity north of Griffith NSW, this area of positive vorticity may lumber towards the south and interact with a developing trough over western Vic today and tomorrow (fingers crossed). best wishes Clyve Herbert.
From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: aus-wx: WHY THE RNG PROCESS DOES NOT IN ANY WAY COMMENT To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 15:37:11 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com There are three questions which we're trying to find answers to in verifying any forecasting technique, at any timescale: 1. Does method X perform better than method Y? 2. Does method X perform better than chance? 3. Does any method exist that performs better than chance? Unless the answers to questions 2 and 3 are 'yes', then question 1 is meaningless. It is ridiculous to argue that only a comparison between methods is relevant - it would be quite valid for an individual to set themselves up with an RNG (without telling anyone that that's their methodology) and issue the outcome as a 'forecast' to compare against method X. The scientific community clearly believes that the answer to question 3 is 'no' when the variable being forecast is dates of rain over a period of a month. They will continue to do so unless and until someone finds a method which gives a 'yes' answer to question 2 (and stands up under independent scrutiny). In other areas of forecasting where it has been demonstrated that the answer to question 2 is 'yes', comparisons between methods get done all the time - for example the Bureau regularly produces comparisons of the performances of the global forecast models of itself, the ECMWF, UKMO etc. There are two other major issues to define in trying to answer the three questions above? (a) what constitutes a successful forecast? (b) what is chance? An RNG is one way of simulating chance, as long as it mimics the real features of the precipitation field. The RNGs that we've seen so far fall short of this, because they treat each day as an independent event when in reality there is a degree of autocorrelation (i.e. if yesterday was wet, the probability of rain today is different to what it would be is yesterday was dry). The definition of a successful forecast is also harder than it looks. Consider the following definitions of a successful forecast: (a) rain falls on the stated date at Sydney Airport (b) rain falls on the stated date somewhere in the Sydney area (which for these purposes we'll define as Bureau rainfall districts 66 and 67) (c) rain falls on the stated date or the day before or the day after at Sydney Airport (d) rain falls on the stated date or the day before or the day after somewhere in the Sydney area Taking the year 2000 as an example, there were 90 days which satisfied condition (a), 254 days which satisfied condition (b), 191 days which satisfied condition (c), and 333 days which satisfied condition (d). (In all cases only rain >= 1mm is included). Hence, to outperform chance, if method (a) is your verification method, you only need to have rain on 25% of your stated dates to start outperforming chance (and if you started getting up around 35-40% you would certainly have something that is worth a serious look). On the other hand, if method (d) is your verification method (and that appears to be the one that Ken is trying to use), then even 90% performance is only about the same as chance. Any comparison is only meaningful if it is performed over an extended period (preferably at least 10 years - which can be done in 'hindsight' - e.g. issuing a notional forecast for 1991 with the information that was available at the start of 1991) and has results (including the verification methodology) published openly. Doing a comparison of 'hindcasts' removes the argument that the forecasts shouldn't be published because people subscribe commercially to them (since after the forecast period is ended the forecast is commercially worthless). As a scientist, I am not prepared to take any forecasting method seriously unless it is prepared to put its results to open scrutiny. If it does so, I am prepared to consider it on its results, regardless of where it comes from. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Realtime AWS observations available in new format. Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 09:17:36 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Jimmy , I just found your reply by accident as I was checking through my mail. I sent a report yesterday but the server rejected it for some reason any way I will repeat it for the info of the list. I am a small business owner and casual teacher with interest in Met going back over 35 years...yes I am a fossil! I started as the son of a farmer in the Riverina back in the mid 60's, to watch the weather and started observing and recording. Did a stint in the BOM for some years in the mid 60's then moved to Sydney and the public Service (N.S.W.) Won a lottery ha ha National Service and Vietnam but it gave me a unique chance to observe South East Asian Whr and 'enjoy' a Typhoon passage in the Phillipines (Manila) and later Cyclone Althea near Tvn the following Xmas! (Not funny!) while enjoying a holiday on my return to civy life. Uni followed at UNE Armidale completed a BA/Dip Ed. still doing whr and providing data to the Armidale community through 2ARM-FM Community radio for my 4 years there. Have been in Canberra since 1981 teaching fulltime til 1995 when illness stopped me .A major op and return to good health meant a return to casual teaching and business from 1998 . Now.doing Masters at ACU too! Weather wise I operate whr station sites at Gilmore and Bonython (Tuggeranong Valley).Have AWS here(Gilmore) but U/S thanks to surge from lightning strike a couple of weeks ago, currently being repaired in US at present. We have operated under the name "Southside Weather Watch" since 1993 . I write a monthly report for the local newspaper each month (Chronicle) on the month's weather and include a long range weather out look to 3 months on expected Temps.departue from average and expected rainfall (fair to good sucess) for the region. Have a good following judging from the feedback. BOM's Tuggeranong AWS is about 5 km west of my site. I am active with the AMOS people and in constant contact with Clem Davis OIC Canberra Met. Office. Also an Assistant Ed for the AMOS Magazine Observer for the Storm Spotters network but it has been very quiet for the last few seasons here so its years since I sent in a severe Weather Report! I am very keen to contact locals in the list and encourage them to join AMOS here in Canberra. The Info I sent yesterday was as follows;(in brief) We at Southside Weather Watch Gilmore have recorded 65.5 mm in the 24 hrs to 7am Tuesday Canberra A/P recorded the heaviest 24 hr total for February on record (77mm) .our (Gilmore)February total is now 107.6 mm , more than double the average. and easily the wettest since we started at Gilmore in 1991. I also sent in the Monthly stats for Jan. Also requested rainfall figures from any one locally on the list. Since then we have had a further 6.5mm and its still raining and a very cool 11.9 degrees. Hope to hear from you. I can't get up to Sydney to the meetings anymore...used to enjoy them .How's the Sydney Centre going these days? Does any one remember me????Any way give them my regards See you soon Gavin O'Brien ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jimmy Deguara" To: Sent: Tuesday, January 29, 2002 6:28 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Realtime AWS observations available in new format. > Hi Gavin, > > I have not seen or heard from you for a while. Welcome to the list. Perhaps > you may want to introduce yourself to others telling them abut your > fascination of the weather and what you do for a living etc. > > Nice to hear from you. > > Jimmy Deguara > > At 03:55 PM 28/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: > >Good day Laurier, I just had a look at your new site .It looks fanastic > >.Hope that it can extend to us in the ACT .Will keep you posted if we get > >any sig wx It has been very quiet here only some iso Cb to south and > >southwest on Saturday.Looks if the rainband over the Riverina will dispate > >before reaching us.We are in urgent need of rain-now into our second well > >below averge month rainfall wise. > >Gavin ,Southside Whr Watch ,Canberra. > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: "Laurier Williams" > >To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" > >Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 11:55 AM > >Subject: aus-wx: Realtime AWS observations available in new format. > > > > > > > Sydney observations for the past 6 hours are now available on the > > > observations tag of the Sydney Briefing page at Australian Weather News. > > > They are experimental at present and only being updated irregularly. > >Regular > > > updating will begin late January. > > > > > > You need to access the new host site version of AWN to get to them, and > >with > > > some problems occurring in transferring to the new host at present it is > > > best to use the direct IP address: http://66.186.211.80/. Or you can go > > > direct to the Sydney Weather Briefing page at > > > http://66.186.211.80/wxbr/nsw/sydney_index.htm > > > > > > The data files are now being generated for all Australian rainfall > > > districts, but obviously won't get linked into their respective district > > > weather briefing pages until I create those pages ;) but in the meantime, > > > you can access the raw AWS data files at http://66.186.211.80/wxbr/awsobs/ > > > then click the link to your rainfall district. There are maps showing > > > rainfall districts at > >ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon2/home/ncc/metadata/sitemaps/ > > > in case you don't know your rainfall district. > > > > > > I'd appreciate any feedback on this formatting of AWS observations -- I > > > think it's the first time they've been on the net formatted this way. Wind > > > >= 40km/h and rain >=6mm/h is highlighted. > > > > > > Cheers > > > > > > Laurier Williams > > > Australian Weather News > > > http://www.australianweathernews.com > > > but for the moment, use http://66.186.211.80/ > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: aus-wx: WHY THE RNG PROCESS DOES NOT IN ANY WAY COMMENT Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 16:15:02 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Feb 2002 05:17:11.0535 (UTC) FILETIME=[87F147F0:01C1AECD] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Blair. Well done, a beautiful summary, almost an essay in your description analysis of methods, and while we all ponder the glories of the holy grail of weather forecasting, I noticed with interest that we were all trying to work out the projected track and time of landfall of TC Chriss over the last two days and even with this atmospheric extreme right in front of our eyes and with all the expertise of human and electronic gadgetry, TC Chriss still went on its merry way all by itself and nobody was able to exactly plot its true coarse or landfall time. Forgive my sceptism but for a 100%correct forecast we will have to monitor the whole global atmosphere every nanosecond just to be able to predict......the next nanosecond!!!. just for fun regards Clyve Herbert. ----- Original Message ----- From: Blair Trewin To: Sent: Wednesday, February 06, 2002 3:37 PM Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: aus-wx: WHY THE RNG PROCESS DOES NOT IN ANY WAY COMMENT > There are three questions which we're trying to find answers to in > verifying any forecasting technique, at any timescale: > > 1. Does method X perform better than method Y? > 2. Does method X perform better than chance? > 3. Does any method exist that performs better than chance? > > Unless the answers to questions 2 and 3 are 'yes', then question 1 > is meaningless. It is ridiculous to argue that only a comparison > between methods is relevant - it would be quite valid for an > individual to set themselves up with an RNG (without telling anyone > that that's their methodology) and issue the outcome as a 'forecast' > to compare against method X. > > The scientific community clearly believes that the answer to > question 3 is 'no' when the variable being forecast is dates of rain > over a period of a month. They will continue to do so unless and > until someone finds a method which gives a 'yes' answer to question > 2 (and stands up under independent scrutiny). > > In other areas of forecasting where it has been demonstrated that > the answer to question 2 is 'yes', comparisons between methods get > done all the time - for example the Bureau regularly produces > comparisons of the performances of the global forecast models of > itself, the ECMWF, UKMO etc. > > There are two other major issues to define in trying to answer the > three questions above? > > (a) what constitutes a successful forecast? > (b) what is chance? > > An RNG is one way of simulating chance, as long as it mimics the > real features of the precipitation field. The RNGs that we've seen > so far fall short of this, because they treat each day as an > independent event when in reality there is a degree of autocorrelation > (i.e. if yesterday was wet, the probability of rain today is different > to what it would be is yesterday was dry). > > The definition of a successful forecast is also harder than it looks. > Consider the following definitions of a successful forecast: > > (a) rain falls on the stated date at Sydney Airport > (b) rain falls on the stated date somewhere in the Sydney area > (which for these purposes we'll define as Bureau rainfall districts > 66 and 67) > (c) rain falls on the stated date or the day before or the day after > at Sydney Airport > (d) rain falls on the stated date or the day before or the day after > somewhere in the Sydney area > > Taking the year 2000 as an example, there were 90 days which > satisfied condition (a), 254 days which satisfied condition (b), > 191 days which satisfied condition (c), and 333 days which satisfied > condition (d). (In all cases only rain >= 1mm is included). > > Hence, to outperform chance, if method (a) is your verification > method, you only need to have rain on 25% of your stated dates to > start outperforming chance (and if you started getting up around 35-40% > you would certainly have something that is worth a serious look). > On the other hand, if method (d) is your verification method (and > that appears to be the one that Ken is trying to use), then even > 90% performance is only about the same as chance. > > Any comparison is only meaningful if it is performed over an extended > period (preferably at least 10 years - which can be done in > 'hindsight' - e.g. issuing a notional forecast for 1991 with the > information that was available at the start of 1991) and has > results (including the verification methodology) published openly. > Doing a comparison of 'hindcasts' removes the argument that the > forecasts shouldn't be published because people subscribe > commercially to them (since after the forecast period is ended the > forecast is commercially worthless). > > As a scientist, I am not prepared to take any forecasting method > seriously unless it is prepared to put its results to open scrutiny. > If it does so, I am prepared to consider it on its results, > regardless of where it comes from. > > Blair > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 15:25:54 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: TC Chris - landfall radar loop Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. For those who may have missed the action of Cat 5 TC Chris making landfall this morning there is a radar loop uploaded at http://www.qldnet.com.au/~carls/imagescurrent/tc.chris.pthed.radar.loop.gif I will leave it there for a couple of days. Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 06 Feb 2002 16:34:30 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: aus-wx: WHY THE RNG PROCESS DOES NOT IN ANY WAY COMMENT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Well said Clyve :) Matt Smith Clyve Herbert wrote: > Hi Blair. > Well done, a beautiful summary, almost an essay in your description analysis > of methods, and while we all ponder the glories of the holy grail of weather > forecasting, I noticed with interest that we were all trying to work out the > projected track and time of landfall of TC Chriss over the last two days and > even with this atmospheric extreme right in front of our eyes and with all > the expertise of human and electronic gadgetry, TC Chriss still went on its > merry way all by itself and nobody was able to exactly plot its true coarse > or landfall time. Forgive my sceptism but for a 100%correct forecast we > will have to monitor the whole global atmosphere every nanosecond just to be > able to predict......the next nanosecond!!!. just for fun regards Clyve > Herbert. > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Blair Trewin > To: > Sent: Wednesday, February 06, 2002 3:37 PM > Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: aus-wx: WHY THE RNG PROCESS DOES NOT IN ANY WAY > COMMENT > > > There are three questions which we're trying to find answers to in > > verifying any forecasting technique, at any timescale: > > > > 1. Does method X perform better than method Y? > > 2. Does method X perform better than chance? > > 3. Does any method exist that performs better than chance? > > > > Unless the answers to questions 2 and 3 are 'yes', then question 1 > > is meaningless. It is ridiculous to argue that only a comparison > > between methods is relevant - it would be quite valid for an > > individual to set themselves up with an RNG (without telling anyone > > that that's their methodology) and issue the outcome as a 'forecast' > > to compare against method X. > > > > The scientific community clearly believes that the answer to > > question 3 is 'no' when the variable being forecast is dates of rain > > over a period of a month. They will continue to do so unless and > > until someone finds a method which gives a 'yes' answer to question > > 2 (and stands up under independent scrutiny). > > > > In other areas of forecasting where it has been demonstrated that > > the answer to question 2 is 'yes', comparisons between methods get > > done all the time - for example the Bureau regularly produces > > comparisons of the performances of the global forecast models of > > itself, the ECMWF, UKMO etc. > > > > There are two other major issues to define in trying to answer the > > three questions above? > > > > (a) what constitutes a successful forecast? > > (b) what is chance? > > > > An RNG is one way of simulating chance, as long as it mimics the > > real features of the precipitation field. The RNGs that we've seen > > so far fall short of this, because they treat each day as an > > independent event when in reality there is a degree of autocorrelation > > (i.e. if yesterday was wet, the probability of rain today is different > > to what it would be is yesterday was dry). > > > > The definition of a successful forecast is also harder than it looks. > > Consider the following definitions of a successful forecast: > > > > (a) rain falls on the stated date at Sydney Airport > > (b) rain falls on the stated date somewhere in the Sydney area > > (which for these purposes we'll define as Bureau rainfall districts > > 66 and 67) > > (c) rain falls on the stated date or the day before or the day after > > at Sydney Airport > > (d) rain falls on the stated date or the day before or the day after > > somewhere in the Sydney area > > > > Taking the year 2000 as an example, there were 90 days which > > satisfied condition (a), 254 days which satisfied condition (b), > > 191 days which satisfied condition (c), and 333 days which satisfied > > condition (d). (In all cases only rain >= 1mm is included). > > > > Hence, to outperform chance, if method (a) is your verification > > method, you only need to have rain on 25% of your stated dates to > > start outperforming chance (and if you started getting up around 35-40% > > you would certainly have something that is worth a serious look). > > On the other hand, if method (d) is your verification method (and > > that appears to be the one that Ken is trying to use), then even > > 90% performance is only about the same as chance. > > > > Any comparison is only meaningful if it is performed over an extended > > period (preferably at least 10 years - which can be done in > > 'hindsight' - e.g. issuing a notional forecast for 1991 with the > > information that was available at the start of 1991) and has > > results (including the verification methodology) published openly. > > Doing a comparison of 'hindcasts' removes the argument that the > > forecasts shouldn't be published because people subscribe > > commercially to them (since after the forecast period is ended the > > forecast is commercially worthless). > > > > As a scientist, I am not prepared to take any forecasting method > > seriously unless it is prepared to put its results to open scrutiny. > > If it does so, I am prepared to consider it on its results, > > regardless of where it comes from. > > > > Blair > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 06 Feb 2002 16:44:20 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris - landfall radar loop Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thanks Carl ! I was at work all morning. Matt Carl Smith wrote: > Hi All. > > For those who may have missed the action of Cat 5 TC Chris making landfall > this morning there is a radar loop uploaded at > http://www.qldnet.com.au/~carls/imagescurrent/tc.chris.pthed.radar.loop.gif > > I will leave it there for a couple of days. > > Regards, > Carl. > > ~~~~~~~~~~ > Carl Smith. > Gold Coast. > Queensland. > Australia. > > Email: carls at qldnet.com.au > Current Tropical Cyclone information : > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris - landfall radar loop Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 17:17:30 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Feb 2002 06:19:39.0811 (UTC) FILETIME=[4216CF30:01C1AED6] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Matt,and Carl. Thank you Carl for the loops ,I was looking for the oval shaping of the eye as it crossed the coast and found it!, a similar thing happened to cyclone Tracy, with the eye appearing to bounce against the coast as if trying to get up the kerb and once over continued on its way, it seems to be a unusual phenomena associated with severe tropical cyclones, Hi Matt in respect to photo,s of the hail in Mel on Friday I was actually in the cab of a train assisting in a carriage division at the time of the hail and had left my work bag with my trusty cannon in the meal room, I raced up to the station office to get a ruler then back to the station to look for hailstone that were remaining (they were melting very rapidly and some were oddly slushy) I measured the hail with two witnesses but I forgot to get my camera,after measuring the hail I then went to get the camera, by the time I got back most of the hail had melted I only had 3 frames left in the camera and looking up I saw the rotating back end of the CB moving over the CBD of Melbourne and used the remaining frames on what was above. This rotating back end main updraft had a small tail feeding into a donut shaped wall cloud, the BOM also saw this, it was a whoopee day,regards Clyve H. ----- Original Message ----- From: Matthew Smith To: Sent: Wednesday, February 06, 2002 4:44 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris - landfall radar loop > Thanks Carl ! I was at work all morning. > > Matt > > Carl Smith wrote: > > > Hi All. > > > > For those who may have missed the action of Cat 5 TC Chris making landfall > > this morning there is a radar loop uploaded at > > http://www.qldnet.com.au/~carls/imagescurrent/tc.chris.pthed.radar.loop.gif > > > > I will leave it there for a couple of days. > > > > Regards, > > Carl. > > > > ~~~~~~~~~~ > > Carl Smith. > > Gold Coast. > > Queensland. > > Australia. > > > > Email: carls at qldnet.com.au > > Current Tropical Cyclone information : > > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > > Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > > Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: > > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 06 Feb 2002 17:33:37 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aus-wx: SMS warnings from NSW SES Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, A new service has commenced by the NSW State Emergency Service, launched yesterday in Lismore. You can now get free SMS to your mobile phone containing all flood and severe thunderstorm advices issued by the BoM. You can sign up here: http://online.ses.nsw.gov.au/sms/ It is a trial service so there may be teething problems. cheers, Michael ================================================================== Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ ================================================================== +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0.2 Date: Wed, 06 Feb 2002 00:53:53 -0600 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: "Iain T. Johnstone" Subject: Re: Fw: aus-wx: TC Chris - Cat 5! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Wind observation from Marble Bar at 0100UTC was 70knots from the East, with heavy rain also. Not as strong as the centre of the cyclone, but still a bit breezy. Q: Is that figure (taken from the BOM hourly observations page) a 10-minute average? Tom Tom Johnstone W.M. Keck Laboratory for Functional Brain Imaging and Behavior University of Wisconsin-Madison johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu +1 608 262 9230 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Glen O'Riley" To: "Peter McCulloch" , "Jimmy Deguara**********" , "Anthony D Wilkinson" , "Weather List Aussie" Subject: aus-wx: Flooding - Taree/Nabiac Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 15:43:16 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Well folks, after 175mm of rain here yesterday the creek is well and truly flowing and it is still raining. But this all brought tragedy to our family. Whilst down cleaning off the bridge after the water went down, our blue cattle dog pup got sucked in under the bridge and drowned. After trying to get him downstream I got swept a few metres myself. --------------------- Glen O'Riley Computer Technician goriley at tsn.cc www.linx.iwarp.com -------------------- Storm Chaser Firefighter SES Volunteer CB Radio Monitor ------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\Glen Patrick O'Riley2.vcf" X-Sender: johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0.2 Date: Wed, 06 Feb 2002 01:17:59 -0600 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: "Iain T. Johnstone" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flooding - Taree/Nabiac Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com That's a shame Glen - I'm very sorry to hear that. Tom At 10:43 PM 2/5/02, you wrote: >Well folks, after 175mm of rain here yesterday the creek is well and truly >flowing and it is still raining. But this all brought tragedy to our family. >Whilst down cleaning off the bridge after the water went down, our blue >cattle dog pup got sucked in under the bridge and drowned. After trying to >get him downstream I got swept a few metres myself. > >--------------------- > >Glen O'Riley >Computer Technician >goriley at tsn.cc >www.linx.iwarp.com > >-------------------- > >Storm Chaser >Firefighter >SES Volunteer >CB Radio Monitor > >------------------- Tom Johnstone W.M. Keck Laboratory for Functional Brain Imaging and Behavior University of Wisconsin-Madison johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu +1 608 262 9230 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: aus-wx: Re: last Friday's Melbourne storm(s) Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 18:44:42 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com .....and > looking up I saw the rotating back end of the CB moving over the CBD of > Melbourne and used the remaining frames on what was above. This rotating > back end main updraft had a small tail feeding into a donut shaped wall > cloud, the BOM also saw this, it was a whoopee day,regards Clyve H. I've got this whole thing on video - as Matt knows . When he range me I was standing propped up by a telegraph pole, in between 3 cells videoing the 'windup' which was directly overhead, for Ray Kollmorgen at the BoM (just in case the amazing happened!!) Going to do some video snaps tonight & put them up. Jane PS: looks nice out this way atm......... -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 20:00:31 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Got lots of trees in that park Bussy Thanks to everyone who has RSVP'd about the ASWA meeting & barbeque so far - looks like it could be a pretty good day out. If you'd like to show video (I've had 5 requests so far) could you also let me know. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- ----- Original Message ----- From: "Bussy" To: Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 10:27 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting & barbeque map > The Boy from the bush can't resist this. Where in the hell does this join > Springhurst Road Rutherglen? Have you got a map reference? I can't seem to > match my town map with this one :-)) > There's more streets on this map than in my town! I got lost "would" be an > excuse. Grin. I got lost going to the last one. Wonder if this would be any > different? Bussy you are excused......... > Draw a map with the trees on the corner and I'll make it. > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Jane ONeill" > To: "Aussie-wx" > Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 9:54 PM > Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting & barbeque map > > > > Evening all, > > > > for those of you who are planning to come to either the Victorian ASWA > > meeting on the 16th February starting with breakfast at ~8.30am at the > > Pancake Parlour on Doncaster Road, Doncaster, and / or you (and family > > and friends) are joining us for the barbeque afterwards, I have uploaded > > a map so that you have absolutely no excuse for not being there......the > > "I got lost" one won't work!! > > > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Feb02/pp.jpg > > > > in the bottom left hand corner (marked PP) is the Pancake Parlour, just > > up the hill from the Eastern Freeway,... and in the top right corner is > > the location of the barbeque (unless we get another storm like Friday, > > in which case, the barbequing will be up to you, because we'll be off > > stormchasing) - turn into the carpark on the left off Victoria Street, > > Doncaster. There are tables undercover & toilets & a bit of a view..... > > > > Please send me an RSVP as early as possible so that we know how many > > people (adults & children) will be coming to the > > a) meeting and / or > > b) barbeque > > and I can cater for them. > > > > Look forward to seeing absolutely everyone!! (as well as a few > > interstaters - one of whom is flying down for the day) for lots of > > photos, videos of summer chasing & Friday's storms as well as a tape of > > Queensland chase highlights. > > > > > > PS: Melbways refs: > > Pancake Parlour 47 C 1 > > Barbeque area 33 J 10 > > > > -------------------------------- > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > > > Paul Yole - Murtoa > > pyole at australia.edu > > > > ASWA - Victoria > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- - > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: last Friday's Melbourne storm(s) Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 20:47:04 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening all, Have just put up 34 video grabs of Friday's storm starting with a mid level funnel over Corio & ending with a meso over Richmond...... http://www.stormchasers.au.com/01_02_02vid.htm Enjoy!! (I did!!) -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Bussy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 22:25:37 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Turn left at the ironbark or the redgum? Or go past the ghost gum and hang a quick left at the Coolabah tree....... > Got lots of trees in that park Bussy Being serious now. Anyone notice another of natures signs during the hot weather. Gum trees will at the drop of a hat drop their branches, regardless of size, to compensate for the available moisture etc for where they are. In other words if they can't support it then they'll drop it. Many people have been injured because of this. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Rosalina Champion" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 22:49:44 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Bussy, My son and I saw one drop its branch a few days ago. It was a tall tree but not very thick branches. Looked fairly young. Made a thunderous crash not far from us. It was a long branch about the thickness of my wrist that came down. It surprised me because I would have expected old trees with heavy branches to do this. Rosalian ----- Original Message ----- From: Bussy To: Sent: Wednesday, February 06, 2002 9:25 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting > Turn left at the ironbark or the redgum? Or go past the ghost gum and hang a > quick left at the Coolabah tree....... > > Got lots of trees in that park Bussy > > Being serious now. Anyone notice another of natures signs during the hot > weather. Gum trees will at the drop of a hat drop their branches, regardless > of size, to compensate for the available moisture etc for where they are. In > other words if they can't support it then they'll drop it. Many people have > been injured because of this. > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Lawrence Taipan" To: Subject: aus-wx: RE:heavy rain at Coffs Harbour Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 23:13:57 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Plenty of rain here over the last 48 hours with 12". It has been steady interspersed with dry and then back to heavy torrential downpours. Certainly seen worse - but the rain recordings surprised me a little. Some flooding around town but not excessive. Ian +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: aus-wx: Gilmore A.C.T. AWS back on line just in time to see the rain event end! Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 23:04:09 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hi all,
I found out why my message on yesterday's record Canberra  Rain event failed to go. wrong address!
Pleased to say the AWS at Gilmore is now back on line.The tech in the States confirmed that a lightning strike either on the powerlines or a nearby ground stroke  was the cause of the failure.Got the unit back at 2 pm and inservice by 4.45 !  Well surge protectors are only so good.. back to the drawing board.
TC Chris was something I would hate to have been the guy at the Pardoo Roadhouse : really made a mess of his place.Hope we can put the data from the AWS on line soon I have an ex student who is going to set up a site soon. watch this space!
Gavin O'Brien  Southside Weather Watch Canberra
X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 00:35:48 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: Fwd: Re: aus-wx: More thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-From_: ken at weatherman.co.nz Wed Feb 6 22:16:28 2002 From: "Ken Ring" To: "Harald Richter \(by way of Carl Smith\)" Cc: , "Carl Smith" Subject: Re: aus-wx: More thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 01:31:34 +1300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 >There are two potentially fruitful questions one can ask here: >(1) How significant is the moon's gravitational force and radiation __relative to__ all other forces acting on the atmosphere >(2) Given a situation where one of the moon's forces has relative significance, how ``differential'' is its influence(*) >(*): I could exert a significant but relatively uniform force on a system that gives me virtually no discriminative abilities -- the entire physical system is affected fairly uniformly leaving gradient-driven processes largely unaffected >The best I can come up with w.r.t. the moon is the atmospheric tides as >manifest in >the surface pressure field in lower latitudes>The road from atmospheric > tides to rainfall is a long and windy one, though. How tiresome. The height of the atmosphere can increase by a factor of 20% due to variation from lunar influence. The air-tide variation produces weather variation. I'm sorry, but unless one studies the literature available it is useless to discuss this topic with skeptics who just say the above off the top of their heads. Those people are not scientists. They are prejudiced bigots. Unless one has seriously gone into careful correlations of moon events against weather patterns there is no basis for discussion. I and a few others have indeed studied both regular meteorology and moon meteorology. I repeat my challenge: put up a monthly rain prediction for Sydney and I will do the same. This is the proof and simple test of the moon method for longrange weather forecasting. I don't want to hear whinings about how the moon couldn't this and can't that. Put up or shut up. The challenge is there. Match it. Anyone. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 00:48:14 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: aus-wx: WHY THE RNG PROCESS DOES NOT IN ANY WAY COMMENT Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Blair and All. Regarding: >Hence, to outperform chance, if method (a) is your verification >method, you only need to have rain on 25% of your stated dates to >start outperforming chance (and if you started getting up around 35-40% >you would certainly have something that is worth a serious look). >On the other hand, if method (d) is your verification method (and >that appears to be the one that Ken is trying to use), then even >90% performance is only about the same as chance. Ken told me he is using past rainfall records called "Sydney" to do his forecasting. He understands that these come from one representative station, which is most likely to be the airport, so any level of chance you calculate comes from (c) not (d) and the level of chance is 191/365 or about 52.3%. Whilst your post is well thought out and quite relevent in the context of the way things unfolded with this particular exercise, there is one very important factor that keeps getting overlooked in the obsessive focus on day by day evaluations: Ken forecasts periods of rain that he calls 'rain windows', i.e. periods of time in which rain is likely to occur, not just straight out rain/no rain conditions on a daily basis - any arguments about chance put forward here really *only* apply to the direct correlation of individual days, whether with or without the leeway, so do *not* directly relate to the kind of forecast nor the fact that rainfall observations show that rain tends to happen in clusters of days, a fact that you point to but then pass over without further consideration in this paragraph: >An RNG is one way of simulating chance, as long as it mimics the >real features of the precipitation field. The RNGs that we've seen >so far fall short of this, because they treat each day as an >independent event when in reality there is a degree of autocorrelation >(i.e. if yesterday was wet, the probability of rain today is different >to what it would be is yesterday was dry). To assess a meaningful level of chance, it is necessary to redefine the parameters by getting away from the day by day obsession that has dominated the discussion so far. The statistics needed are the number, length, and timing of rain 'windows' for the station, where rain windows can be defined as periods of one or more days in a row where rain falls, and that rain windows need to be seperated by fine windows of one or more days where no rain is recorded - acceptable cut-offs such as 1mm considered. It is apparent without knowing exactly how to work it out that the chances of getting the number of rain windows, the lengths of the rain windows, and the timing of the rain windows +-1 day, *all* 100 percent correct is quite low. I am not really sure how the level of chance could best be determined in this situation, and would be interested to hear your comments regarding this. Regarding: >3. Does any method exist that performs better than chance? And: >The scientific community clearly believes that the answer to >question 3 is 'no' when the variable being forecast is dates of rain >over a period of a month. They will continue to do so unless and >until someone finds a method which gives a 'yes' answer to question >2 (and stands up under independent scrutiny). The kind of prejudice eluded to here is quite suprising for any group that considers themselves as scientists. My understanding is that one of the first requirements of any scientist is an open and inquiring mind. If an assumption is made that something does not exist, then chances are it will not be found, as the consciousness of the individual is switched off to the possibility, so if evidence is present that validates the existence of what is believed not to exist, it will probably go unrecognised unless it screams out in a way that cannot be ignored, and even then the mind exposed to it will try to invent many logical reasons as to why the evidence does not validate that which blind prejudice dictates does not exist. Regards, Carl. >There are three questions which we're trying to find answers to in >verifying any forecasting technique, at any timescale: > >1. Does method X perform better than method Y? >2. Does method X perform better than chance? >3. Does any method exist that performs better than chance? > >Unless the answers to questions 2 and 3 are 'yes', then question 1 >is meaningless. It is ridiculous to argue that only a comparison >between methods is relevant - it would be quite valid for an >individual to set themselves up with an RNG (without telling anyone >that that's their methodology) and issue the outcome as a 'forecast' >to compare against method X. > >The scientific community clearly believes that the answer to >question 3 is 'no' when the variable being forecast is dates of rain >over a period of a month. They will continue to do so unless and >until someone finds a method which gives a 'yes' answer to question >2 (and stands up under independent scrutiny). > >In other areas of forecasting where it has been demonstrated that >the answer to question 2 is 'yes', comparisons between methods get >done all the time - for example the Bureau regularly produces >comparisons of the performances of the global forecast models of >itself, the ECMWF, UKMO etc. > >There are two other major issues to define in trying to answer the >three questions above? > >(a) what constitutes a successful forecast? >(b) what is chance? > >An RNG is one way of simulating chance, as long as it mimics the >real features of the precipitation field. The RNGs that we've seen >so far fall short of this, because they treat each day as an >independent event when in reality there is a degree of autocorrelation >(i.e. if yesterday was wet, the probability of rain today is different >to what it would be is yesterday was dry). > >The definition of a successful forecast is also harder than it looks. >Consider the following definitions of a successful forecast: > >(a) rain falls on the stated date at Sydney Airport >(b) rain falls on the stated date somewhere in the Sydney area >(which for these purposes we'll define as Bureau rainfall districts >66 and 67) >(c) rain falls on the stated date or the day before or the day after >at Sydney Airport >(d) rain falls on the stated date or the day before or the day after >somewhere in the Sydney area > >Taking the year 2000 as an example, there were 90 days which >satisfied condition (a), 254 days which satisfied condition (b), >191 days which satisfied condition (c), and 333 days which satisfied >condition (d). (In all cases only rain >= 1mm is included). > >Hence, to outperform chance, if method (a) is your verification >method, you only need to have rain on 25% of your stated dates to >start outperforming chance (and if you started getting up around 35-40% >you would certainly have something that is worth a serious look). >On the other hand, if method (d) is your verification method (and >that appears to be the one that Ken is trying to use), then even >90% performance is only about the same as chance. > >Any comparison is only meaningful if it is performed over an extended >period (preferably at least 10 years - which can be done in >'hindsight' - e.g. issuing a notional forecast for 1991 with the >information that was available at the start of 1991) and has >results (including the verification methodology) published openly. >Doing a comparison of 'hindcasts' removes the argument that the >forecasts shouldn't be published because people subscribe >commercially to them (since after the forecast period is ended the >forecast is commercially worthless). > >As a scientist, I am not prepared to take any forecasting method >seriously unless it is prepared to put its results to open scrutiny. >If it does so, I am prepared to consider it on its results, >regardless of where it comes from. > >Blair > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 01:10:37 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, astro-weather at topica.com From: Carl Smith Subject: RE: aus-wx: More thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi John and All. >Hi Phil, > >I wonder though, if the mere existence of folk doing long range weather >forecasting is sufficient for some people to puchase their services. There >are for example, a number of devices one can purchase to "improve" fuel >consumption in cars - which consist of nothing more than a magnet or two >wrapped around the fuel line and some nice packaging. People buy these and >swear by them, even when there is no scientific proof whatsoever that they >do anything at all. Whilst it is true that their are a minority of people who can be conned into purchasing just about anything, the farmers and others who purchase LR forecasting products use them to plan their longer term activities. The farmers do not need 'scientific' proof because they find the proof they need in the success or failure of planting their crops at the right times to take advantage of forecast periods of rain and timing their harvests to take advantage of forecast periods of fine weather. As many farmers do not have much cash to splash around, if the LR forecasts were generally unreliable the costs of the inevitable crop failures resulting from planning their activities around something no better than chance would most certainly cause them to think twice before purchasing LR forecasts again, as they reason they purchase them is to get an economic advantage over plain chance. I cannot understand how meteorologists and the scientifically inclined can honestly keep propagating the myth that the farmers are being conned and are somehow too stupid to realise it - most farmers whom I have had the pleasure of knowing are pretty shrewd customers when it comes to assessing the values of things and of what they budget to spend on which resources. When the BoM gets it's forecasts wrong from time to time they go into damage control trying to convince a rather skeptical public (including farmers) that they are really doing OK overall with their accuracy. Don't you think the same skepticism also applies to LR forecasters when they get it wrong? > >As a scientist, for me to be a true believer in the influence of the Moon on >weather, I need to understand the physical processes involved. It is possible to see whether something works or not without 'scientific' proof. Anyone can see that electricity works when we turn on a light switch without needing one iota of scientific understanding, but show me one scientist that can adequately explain the phenomenon of electricity without the use of unproven fundamental assumptions at some point in the process. Also, if I hold a cricket ball at arms length and let it go, it heads towards the centre of the Earth at increasing speed until such time as something physical such as the ground stops it. Can you show me one scientist that can adequately explain gravity? If we required absolute scientific proof of all the forces/mechanisms involved before putting these forces to practical use we would still be in the Dark Ages, so why not put lunar effects on the weather to practical use, even if we cannot yet adequately explain them to the nth degree? > >There can be no question that the Sun is the primary motivator of the >atmosphere. This source of heat is the reason behind the temperature >differences beween the Poles & the Equator, day and night, ocean vs land, >etc.. The Sun drives the enormous convection engines that stir the >atmosphere into life, which in turn leads to the circulations such as the >trade winds, jet streams, etc.. > >One has to ask, what role the moon plays? The Lunar cycles apparently play a modulatory role on the Solar seasonal cycle by influencing where and when circulation systems and jet streams form and where they will go from there. > Unless there is some other >physical 'force' about which we know nothing, the only two which spring to >mind are reflected radiation and gravity. Anyone who has camped outside >under a full moon on a freezingly cold winter night can attest to the fact >that very little heat is supplied through re-radiation of sunlight! The >gravitational pull in comparison, is considerable, causing tides in the >Earth itself, the oceans and the atmosphere. One does not need to invent an imaginary force - gravity will do just fine if it's effects are well enough understood. > >One could imagine perhaps, that having oceans rising and falling several >meters would displace quite a lot of atmosphere and maybe this causes the >air to flow from high tide regions to low tide regions. But then again, the >gravitational effect on mass is always the same, thus the atmosphere is >pulled along with the oceans and the earth, and the net effect is pretty >mnuch zero. The ocean tides ebb and flow in a monthly amplitude cycle showing a net effect rather greater than zero by helping to drive the current circulations that flow around our ocean basins - if you want to see this, look at the amazing tidal currents that flow through restricted areas such as the Torres Strait causing water to move from one basin to another which never moves back again to exactly the same extent on the next part of the tidal cycle as subsequent tidal highs and lows are not uniform, setting up frequent flows of water so effecting the currents in the basins. Is it too much of a stretch of the imagination to consider that perhaps the atmospheric tides that also ebb and flow in tandem with the ocean tides have a net effect also greater than zero on atmospheric flows? > >Therefore I am led to conclude that if the moon does sigificantly influence >weather, then it may be by some application of chaos theory or resonant >effect. Chaos theory applies to highly non-linear dynamic systems like the >atmosphere and explains why we may never be able to accurately forecast >conditions more than about 10 days ahead, given even the fastest computers >and most accurate models. But it maybe that tiny lunar influences applied >over a wide area, magnify through chaos event progression to become a large >scale significant influence. > >The other way that a tiny event can build into a significant event is by >resonance. Maybe the repetitive nature of the Moon's influence builds and >maintains a high altitude resonant wave in the atmosphere which in turn acts >to influence and coordinate lower level systems, from whence cometh the 7 >day change cycle often observed in mid-latitudes... You do not need to bring the Choas theory into it. The Soli-Lunar cycle is a clearly defined resonant type waveform. The effects of the atmospheric tides when considered at a planetary level are not insignificant, even if it only averages around +-2 hPa at Cairns. This variable amplitude twice daily wave that has it's peak somewhere between latitudes 29N and 29S depending on Lunar/Solar declination in a monthly/yearly cycle *must* have some influence on weather systems, even if only small at any particular point and moment, however the accumulated effects of these variable amplitude pushes and pulls over wide areas and periods of days must be enormous. The wave peak spends two weeks in the northern hemisphere and the next two weeks in the southern hemisphere, so nudging weather systems alternatively further N and then further S, and has the modulation factors of the yearly Solar gravity wave cycle and the Lunar distance gravity amplitude cycle superimposed on it, making it quite a complex long period wave form. For periods of time the cycles are reasonably well aligned adding their effects and giving us the regular 7 day cyclic pattern in temperate weather systems, however they then get out of synch for a while where their effects tend to cancel so the 7 day pattern breaks down, before re-establishing as the cycles become better aligned again. It is not suprising that some who have bothered to look into it by the isolation of one part of this complex waveform and checking weather records against it have not come up with meaningful results - it undoubtably requires consideration of all the major components of the waveform as a unit to reveal any meaningful correlation, and the correspondences will only show themselves over long periods of time, which is why LR forecasters use weather records from previous occasions when the major cyclic components aligned in a similar manner to make their forecasts for any particular time. Also, even the best past alignments are never a perfect match to current ones, so there will always be a margin of error - the better the cyclic alignment the more reliable the forecast. > >But this is just pure guesswork, as is, I fear, most long range forecasting. >It amuses me that Ken uses a statistical argument to dismiss the results of >the 1 month "Ken vs the Rngs" comparison, on the basis that the sample was >"too small to be taken seriously", yet he is unwilling to submit to a longer >term statistical analysis which would determine whether his method is indeed >better than pure guesswork as claimed. If you really want to submit Ken's work to a longer term statistical analysis he provides free monthly forecasts for many New Zealand locations on his website at http://www.predictweather.com and you can get these prior to the start of each month and check them against daily observations to your hearts content, so building up the body of evidence over time for many locations in a variety climatic situations that should be sufficient to support or refute Ken. > >One would presume that if he claims to be better than chance, then he has >done the analysis to prove this. Therefore there is no reason why this >should not be shared with the scientific community so that he can gain the >accreditation deserved. One does not need detailed scientific analysis to observe that something is better than chance. If I see a big thunderstorm headed in my direction I can assume that there is better than chance odds that I am going to experience a thunderstorm shortly without doing any extensive scientific analysis to come to such a conclusion. Common sense is a keen assessor of chance. Ken's accreditation comes from his many satisfied clients, many of whom also keep track of how accurate he is and feed it back to him, so allowing him to claim better than chance results. It is up to the scientific community to do the necessary research if a 'scientific' level of proof is needed. > >Regards, >John W. Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: More thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 03:35:59 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Carl, Yes, probably a poor choice of words. Proof is not something that applies to the scientific method. The scientific method is to produce theories to explain the observed physical processes and these theories are only good until some piece of evidence refutes them - at which stage a better theory is needed. It is by this process of progressively developing and refining theories that a scientist seeks to understand nature. Thus I should have said "Scientific evidence" rather than proof in relation to the fuel devices. But as far as the Moon's influence goes, please note that I categorically did NOT say that I needed scientific proof as to this influence - merely that I needed to understand the processes involved. So I have spent some time at Ken's website to try and gather this understanding... Quite enlightening. (I particularly liked the bit about planes flying into vacuum holes during King atmospheric tides). Re your comments about understanding electricity and gravity etc., we may not truely understand these things, but we sure have some compelling theories. Ken also has a theory. The question is whether it holds any water (or should that be precipitation, ugh), or whether is it a crackpot theory like the "Big Bang" theory (oh that will raise some eyebrows). But in the scientific method, it remains a valid theory until refuted - but only one piece of evidence can do that (failure to show statistical advantage over chance for instance, or destruction of a fundamental tenet upon which it is based). I understand the effect of the moon on the oceans and the resulting tides. Water is a fluid substance and only very slightly compressible and has to flow around obstacles like continents. The atmosphere though is completely different in substance and is highly compressible, and it can expand & contract according to gravitational pull, thus there is little impetus for it flow horizontally or any real obstacles that it would need to flow around. But I'll let you know the day that I confirm twice daily winds screaming in opposite directions over the NZ alps or Great Dividing Range, coordinated with the Moon's orbit. Regards, John. >snip -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Carl Smith Sent: Thursday, February 07, 2002 1:11 AM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com; astro-weather at topica.com Cc: Ken Ring Subject: RE: aus-wx: More thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate Hi John and All. >Hi Phil, > >I wonder though, if the mere existence of folk doing long range weather >forecasting is sufficient for some people to puchase their services. There >are for example, a number of devices one can purchase to "improve" fuel >consumption in cars - which consist of nothing more than a magnet or two >wrapped around the fuel line and some nice packaging. People buy these and >swear by them, even when there is no scientific proof whatsoever that they >do anything at all. Whilst it is true that their are a minority of people who can be conned into purchasing just about anything, the farmers and others who purchase LR forecasting products use them to plan their longer term activities. The farmers do not need 'scientific' proof because they find the proof they need in the success or failure of planting their crops at the right times to take advantage of forecast periods of rain and timing their harvests to take advantage of forecast periods of fine weather. As many farmers do not have much cash to splash around, if the LR forecasts were generally unreliable the costs of the inevitable crop failures resulting from planning their activities around something no better than chance would most certainly cause them to think twice before purchasing LR forecasts again, as they reason they purchase them is to get an economic advantage over plain chance. I cannot understand how meteorologists and the scientifically inclined can honestly keep propagating the myth that the farmers are being conned and are somehow too stupid to realise it - most farmers whom I have had the pleasure of knowing are pretty shrewd customers when it comes to assessing the values of things and of what they budget to spend on which resources. When the BoM gets it's forecasts wrong from time to time they go into damage control trying to convince a rather skeptical public (including farmers) that they are really doing OK overall with their accuracy. Don't you think the same skepticism also applies to LR forecasters when they get it wrong? > >As a scientist, for me to be a true believer in the influence of the Moon on >weather, I need to understand the physical processes involved. It is possible to see whether something works or not without 'scientific' proof. Anyone can see that electricity works when we turn on a light switch without needing one iota of scientific understanding, but show me one scientist that can adequately explain the phenomenon of electricity without the use of unproven fundamental assumptions at some point in the process. Also, if I hold a cricket ball at arms length and let it go, it heads towards the centre of the Earth at increasing speed until such time as something physical such as the ground stops it. Can you show me one scientist that can adequately explain gravity? If we required absolute scientific proof of all the forces/mechanisms involved before putting these forces to practical use we would still be in the Dark Ages, so why not put lunar effects on the weather to practical use, even if we cannot yet adequately explain them to the nth degree? > >There can be no question that the Sun is the primary motivator of the >atmosphere. This source of heat is the reason behind the temperature >differences beween the Poles & the Equator, day and night, ocean vs land, >etc.. The Sun drives the enormous convection engines that stir the >atmosphere into life, which in turn leads to the circulations such as the >trade winds, jet streams, etc.. > >One has to ask, what role the moon plays? The Lunar cycles apparently play a modulatory role on the Solar seasonal cycle by influencing where and when circulation systems and jet streams form and where they will go from there. > Unless there is some other >physical 'force' about which we know nothing, the only two which spring to >mind are reflected radiation and gravity. Anyone who has camped outside >under a full moon on a freezingly cold winter night can attest to the fact >that very little heat is supplied through re-radiation of sunlight! The >gravitational pull in comparison, is considerable, causing tides in the >Earth itself, the oceans and the atmosphere. One does not need to invent an imaginary force - gravity will do just fine if it's effects are well enough understood. > >One could imagine perhaps, that having oceans rising and falling several >meters would displace quite a lot of atmosphere and maybe this causes the >air to flow from high tide regions to low tide regions. But then again, the >gravitational effect on mass is always the same, thus the atmosphere is >pulled along with the oceans and the earth, and the net effect is pretty >mnuch zero. The ocean tides ebb and flow in a monthly amplitude cycle showing a net effect rather greater than zero by helping to drive the current circulations that flow around our ocean basins - if you want to see this, look at the amazing tidal currents that flow through restricted areas such as the Torres Strait causing water to move from one basin to another which never moves back again to exactly the same extent on the next part of the tidal cycle as subsequent tidal highs and lows are not uniform, setting up frequent flows of water so effecting the currents in the basins. Is it too much of a stretch of the imagination to consider that perhaps the atmospheric tides that also ebb and flow in tandem with the ocean tides have a net effect also greater than zero on atmospheric flows? > >Therefore I am led to conclude that if the moon does sigificantly influence >weather, then it may be by some application of chaos theory or resonant >effect. Chaos theory applies to highly non-linear dynamic systems like the >atmosphere and explains why we may never be able to accurately forecast >conditions more than about 10 days ahead, given even the fastest computers >and most accurate models. But it maybe that tiny lunar influences applied >over a wide area, magnify through chaos event progression to become a large >scale significant influence. > >The other way that a tiny event can build into a significant event is by >resonance. Maybe the repetitive nature of the Moon's influence builds and >maintains a high altitude resonant wave in the atmosphere which in turn acts >to influence and coordinate lower level systems, from whence cometh the 7 >day change cycle often observed in mid-latitudes... You do not need to bring the Choas theory into it. The Soli-Lunar cycle is a clearly defined resonant type waveform. The effects of the atmospheric tides when considered at a planetary level are not insignificant, even if it only averages around +-2 hPa at Cairns. This variable amplitude twice daily wave that has it's peak somewhere between latitudes 29N and 29S depending on Lunar/Solar declination in a monthly/yearly cycle *must* have some influence on weather systems, even if only small at any particular point and moment, however the accumulated effects of these variable amplitude pushes and pulls over wide areas and periods of days must be enormous. The wave peak spends two weeks in the northern hemisphere and the next two weeks in the southern hemisphere, so nudging weather systems alternatively further N and then further S, and has the modulation factors of the yearly Solar gravity wave cycle and the Lunar distance gravity amplitude cycle superimposed on it, making it quite a complex long period wave form. For periods of time the cycles are reasonably well aligned adding their effects and giving us the regular 7 day cyclic pattern in temperate weather systems, however they then get out of synch for a while where their effects tend to cancel so the 7 day pattern breaks down, before re-establishing as the cycles become better aligned again. It is not suprising that some who have bothered to look into it by the isolation of one part of this complex waveform and checking weather records against it have not come up with meaningful results - it undoubtably requires consideration of all the major components of the waveform as a unit to reveal any meaningful correlation, and the correspondences will only show themselves over long periods of time, which is why LR forecasters use weather records from previous occasions when the major cyclic components aligned in a similar manner to make their forecasts for any particular time. Also, even the best past alignments are never a perfect match to current ones, so there will always be a margin of error - the better the cyclic alignment the more reliable the forecast. > >But this is just pure guesswork, as is, I fear, most long range forecasting. >It amuses me that Ken uses a statistical argument to dismiss the results of >the 1 month "Ken vs the Rngs" comparison, on the basis that the sample was >"too small to be taken seriously", yet he is unwilling to submit to a longer >term statistical analysis which would determine whether his method is indeed >better than pure guesswork as claimed. If you really want to submit Ken's work to a longer term statistical analysis he provides free monthly forecasts for many New Zealand locations on his website at http://www.predictweather.com and you can get these prior to the start of each month and check them against daily observations to your hearts content, so building up the body of evidence over time for many locations in a variety climatic situations that should be sufficient to support or refute Ken. > >One would presume that if he claims to be better than chance, then he has >done the analysis to prove this. Therefore there is no reason why this >should not be shared with the scientific community so that he can gain the >accreditation deserved. One does not need detailed scientific analysis to observe that something is better than chance. If I see a big thunderstorm headed in my direction I can assume that there is better than chance odds that I am going to experience a thunderstorm shortly without doing any extensive scientific analysis to come to such a conclusion. Common sense is a keen assessor of chance. Ken's accreditation comes from his many satisfied clients, many of whom also keep track of how accurate he is and feed it back to him, so allowing him to claim better than chance results. It is up to the scientific community to do the necessary research if a 'scientific' level of proof is needed. > >Regards, >John W. Regards, Carl. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 07 Feb 2002 06:03:35 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Big hat that gum tree dropped, Jane! Over the years I was often aware of this habit of aussie gum trees. I was taught when a kid to never set up my tent under a gum tree for this very reason. I have seen not only enormous branches drop from big old trees, but also very small branches get dropped from trees that are barely more than saplings. Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: "Bussy" To: Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 22:25:37 +1100 Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting > Turn left at the ironbark or the redgum? Or go past the ghost gum and > hang a > quick left at the Coolabah tree....... > > Got lots of trees in that park Bussy > > Being serious now. Anyone notice another of natures signs during the > hot > weather. Gum trees will at the drop of a hat drop their branches, > regardless > of size, to compensate for the available moisture etc for where they > are. In > other words if they can't support it then they'll drop it. Many people > have > been injured because of this. > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- > + > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: Vict today.. Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 09:32:04 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Also the cut off upper low that = >has been plodding about the southeast of Australia over the past several = >days can be seen as a region of enhanced vorticity north of Griffith = >NSW, this area of positive vorticity may lumber towards the south and = >interact with a developing trough over western Vic today and tomorrow = >(fingers crossed). best wishes Clyve Herbert. Clyve, I think if nothing else this developing system will give Victoria (particularly the eastern half) around 36 hours of "wintery" weather starting tonight. Last nights soundings showed a nice moist atmosphere from the near surface to around 300 hPa over Melbourne (and further east). Very interestingly from a rainfall perspective, the dew point depression was uniformly around 5C, meaning that even a moderate amount of vertical motion will see rapid development of thick stratiform cloud and rain. Of course, the approaching thermal trough (currently south of the bight), and development of a sharp baroclinic zone over western Victoria which is then expected to give rise to cyclogensis will provide the necessary lift. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few 25-50mm falls clocked up out of this event. As for storms... these certainly look quite likely this afternoon, though I would expected a rapid change over to more general stratiform rain this evening. Regards, David Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: duckman.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 10:44:45 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Subject: aus-wx: Change in URL for GMS IR images Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all I just noticed that the URL for the GMSC and GMSD images has changed as of a few hours ago. New URLs are GMSC: http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/sat/gms_c/gmsc.jpg GMSD: http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/sat/gms_d/gmsd.jpg Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "nandina morris" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: last Friday's Melbourne storm(s) Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 13:09:35 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Fantastic photos, Jane. Some element of that storm activated my motion sensor lights in the carport. Wonder if that may have been light related, or moisture related. Thoughts please. Cheers, Nandina ----- Original Message ----- From: Jane ONeill To: Sent: Wednesday, February 06, 2002 8:47 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: last Friday's Melbourne storm(s) > Evening all, > > Have just put up 34 video grabs of Friday's storm starting with a mid > level funnel over Corio & ending with a meso over Richmond...... > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/01_02_02vid.htm > > Enjoy!! (I did!!) > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.319 / Virus Database: 178 - Release Date: 1/28/02 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 11:50:32 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: Change in URL for GMS IR images > archives gone Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. The satpic archives seem to have completely disappeared too - the links to the archives have gone from JTWC's old page and are not on their new one, and the direct links themselves no longer work. No more full disk GMS5 images for the past few days available - at least I have not been able to locate them. Oh well, there goes any regularly spaced multi-spectral animations of TC's :-( Regards, Carl. >Hi all > >I just noticed that the URL for the GMSC and GMSD images has changed as of >a few hours ago. New URLs are > >GMSC: >http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/sat/gms_c/gmsc.jpg > >GMSD: >http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/sat/gms_d/gmsd.jpg > > >Cheers > >-- > >Robert A. Goler > >School of Mathematical Sciences >Monash University >Clayton, Vic 3800 >Australia > >ph. +61 3 9905 4424 >email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au >http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > >-- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: VIC convection To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 13:25:16 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Folks, TODAY: Lower bounday layer moisture and lower surface temperatures indicate that today is not going to be a repeat of last Friday. However ... I like the upper levels more than I did last Friday. At 23Z YMTG suggested cool mid-levels and disorganised flow. Since then, the MTG profiler points to freshening mid-level flow with 25 knots from 340 at 1:30Z. With that tendency continuing, flow would be significantly up on last week. Then AVN has a 70 kt jet nosing into the Mildura region at 500 by 06Z, putting us into the right forward quadrant supporting lift. A reasonably sharp surface wind change / trough has set up in extreme SW VIC, extending from Warrnambool through Casterton into SA. A meridionally oriented line of convection is approacing the longitude of Cape Otway to Colac, but the lightning tracker shows (almost) zilch? The inland BL airmass E of the wind change averages surface parcels around 24/11. Enhanced sea breeze/bay breeze convergence is setting up from W of MML down the coastline past Geelong, with convection located between Geelong and Anglesea. The Cape Otway-Colac line and SW Geelong convection is the obvious "cat-in-the-bag" play for today. The best air would be nearer the coast, maybe right along the sea breeze front. I wonder whether the combination of stronger upper-level flow and higher surface T,Td is going to produce something bigger in NE VIC later? Or, what about the good W Gippsland moisture later? Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Lindsay Smail" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: VIC convection Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 14:41:28 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Harald, etc, Mainly inter-cloud lightning and loud, long peals of thunder around Geelong since 12.15 pm, but seems to be attracted more to the south as you suggested. About 10 drops of rain across town till now (2.45 pm). Regards, Lindsay Smail. -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Harald Richter Sent: Thursday, 7 February 2002 12:25 PM To: Aussie Weather Subject: aus-wx: VIC convection Folks, TODAY: Lower bounday layer moisture and lower surface temperatures indicate that today is not going to be a repeat of last Friday. However ... I like the upper levels more than I did last Friday. At 23Z YMTG suggested cool mid-levels and disorganised flow. Since then, the MTG profiler points to freshening mid-level flow with 25 knots from 340 at 1:30Z. With that tendency continuing, flow would be significantly up on last week. Then AVN has a 70 kt jet nosing into the Mildura region at 500 by 06Z, putting us into the right forward quadrant supporting lift. A reasonably sharp surface wind change / trough has set up in extreme SW VIC, extending from Warrnambool through Casterton into SA. A meridionally oriented line of convection is approacing the longitude of Cape Otway to Colac, but the lightning tracker shows (almost) zilch? The inland BL airmass E of the wind change averages surface parcels around 24/11. Enhanced sea breeze/bay breeze convergence is setting up from W of MML down the coastline past Geelong, with convection located between Geelong and Anglesea. The Cape Otway-Colac line and SW Geelong convection is the obvious "cat-in-the-bag" play for today. The best air would be nearer the coast, maybe right along the sea breeze front. I wonder whether the combination of stronger upper-level flow and higher surface T,Td is going to produce something bigger in NE VIC later? Or, what about the good W Gippsland moisture later? Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ --- Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Thu, 07 Feb 2002 15:10:58 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aus-wx: NSW convection Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Keep a watch on the cells firing along the NSW North Coast. I have just received a report from the BoM in Sydney that the cell NW of Grafton at 3pm is a supercell - as identified by radar. The cell has been active for over 90 mins already. Heading NE towards Ballina area at the momemt. Michael ================================================================== Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ ================================================================== +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Peter Tristram" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW convection Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 16:03:34 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Keep a watch on the cells firing along the NSW North Coast. I have just > received a report from the BoM in Sydney that the cell NW of Grafton at 3pm > is a supercell - as identified by radar. The cell has been active for over > 90 mins already. > > Heading NE towards Ballina area at the momemt. > > Michael The place to be is the Stuarts Point/Grassy Head area judging by the Coffs local radar. Maybe they'll move north to the Bellinger- ages since a decent thunderstorm blasted through this area. According to ABC local radio, Grassy Head had 310mm in the 24hrs to 6am! Coffs still broke the Feb record at 211mm. Had 120mm at Repton. My mum recorded 189 at Toormina and a report from Sawtell was 220mm. Peter --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.320 / Virus Database: 179 - Release Date: 30-01-02 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 16:29:22 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: TC Chris satpic loop Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. I have uploaded a multispectral satpic loop of TC Chris at: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/imagescurrent/g5.trop.satpicloop.gif If anyone, such as Jane, wants to get it for their websites, I will leave it there for a few days. Unfortunately, this looks like the final one of these multispectral animations as NPMOC/JTWC has closed the archives were I obtained the full disk vis, ir, and wv images I made them from :-( If anyone knows where I can find archives of recent images I would like to know the URL. Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 16:29:34 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: Fwd: Re: aus-wx: More thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi John, Phil, and All. I am forwarding the following response from Ken Ring. Regards, Carl. X-From_: ken at weatherman.co.nz Thu Feb 7 06:25:35 2002 From: "Ken Ring" To: "John Woodbridge \(by way of Carl Smith\)" Cc: "Carl Smith" , Subject: Re: aus-wx: More thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 09:41:31 +1300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 ----- Original Message ----- From: "John Woodbridge (by way of Carl Smith)" To: "Ken Ring" Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 6:24 PM Subject: RE: aus-wx: More thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate > I wonder though, if the mere existence of folk doing long range weather > forecasting is sufficient for some people to puchase their services. There > are for example, a number of devices one can purchase to "improve" fuel > consumption in cars - which consist of nothing more than a magnet or two > wrapped around the fuel line and some nice packaging. People buy these and > swear by them, even when there is no scientific proof whatsoever that they > do anything at all. Farmers buy my forecasts in droves. I am constantly booked to address farners' seminars - I did about 8 last year. Those guys call a spade a spade. They are not fools and don't suffer them gladly. They are the first to say bullshit if anything fails to come up to scratch. Yet they say to me "the metservice is about as useful as tits on a bull", "you are the only one around who has any accuracy" and, quote from the editorial in Farm Trader, January 2002 issue, circulation 10,000 "..in October the National Climate centre said November and December would be drier than average. in fact, November was surprisingly wet and December was the same. I know of only one forecaster that expected anything like what happened. Ken Ring, the Auckland man who bases his weather predictions on the phases of the moon got it right when he said, over a year ago, that this November would be wet and December would be wetter.." So come on guys, credit where credit's due. Scientific proof is nice but proof is also a function of the usefulness of something that works. > As a scientist, for me to be a true believer in the influence of the Moon on > weather, I need to understand the physical processes involved. Then as a scientist, study them with the same rigor that you are applying to your prejudice. Buy my book Predicting Weather By The Moon. In the back you'll find 30 research papers from respectable universities. Follow them up. They are research fellows and climatologists, not new age dopeys.. Otherwise, pl-ease don't presume to comment on something you know nothing about. > There can be no question that the Sun is the primary motivator of the > atmosphere. > One has to ask, what role the moon plays? If the sun was the only factor weather should be the same each day of the year, because the sun's rotation is constant, as it the earth's rotation. Obviously weather is not. So what mixes it? The sun is the heat engine but the moon is the mixer. Watch clouds build up as the moon sets. Do a little investigation. > One could imagine perhaps, that having oceans rising and falling several > meters would displace quite a lot of atmosphere and maybe this causes the > air to flow from high tide regions to low tide regions. The air has a tide. We live between the two tides of air and of water. But then again, the > gravitational effect on mass is always the same, thus the atmosphere is > pulled along with the oceans and the earth, and the net effect is pretty > much zero. Wrong. Study the moon and you'll see why. The moon changes its distance daily, changes its declination and changes position relative to the sun. It also changes speed when crossing equator, when at new moon, when declinations N or S. And all of this changes proportionatedly over 18.613 years due to a larger cycle. You'll get nowhere until you study it. And you've got a lot to do so get cracking! > Therefore I am led to conclude that if the moon does sigificantly influence > weather, then it may be by some application of chaos theory or resonant > effect. Chaos theory applies to highly non-linear dynamic systems like the > atmosphere and explains why we may never be able to accurately forecast > conditions more than about 10 days ahead, given even the fastest computers > and most accurate models. But it maybe that tiny lunar influences applied > over a wide area, magnify through chaos event progression to become a large > scale significant influence. Yeah right, maybe this, maybe that..Forget Chaos theory, which was dreamed up by weather scientists at Princeton in 1976 to cover their ignorance of LR. Study the moon's orbiting behaviours. Don't assume anything until you have read up on it. Otherwise you'll be maybe-ing for the rest of your lives. > The other way that a tiny event can build into a significant event is by > resonance. Maybe the repetitive nature of the Moon's influence builds and > maintains a high altitude resonant wave in the atmosphere which in turn acts > to influence and coordinate lower level systems, from whence cometh the 7 > day change cycle often observed in mid-latitudes... > But this is just pure guesswork, as is, I fear, most long range forecasting. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black! What is this that you're doing if it's not guesswork? Study the thing man, stop shooting around in the dark. > It amuses me that Ken uses a statistical argument to dismiss the results of > the 1 month "Ken vs the Rngs" comparison, on the basis that the sample was > "too small to be taken seriously", yet he is unwilling to submit to a longer > term statistical analysis which would determine whether his method is indeed > better than pure guesswork as claimed. Hey, I've put out a monthly challenge. No one is matching me. Here's a race in which I seem to be the only willing starter. I've scared off all the opposition(I've told you all why it's unfair to put out a yearly forecast. People have already paid for it. You must accept that). So far I've won. I get all the prizes. I'm waiting for my challenge to be met but you'd rather hit at my legs with a stick rather than race against me. I repeat: put up a monthly forecast. I will do the same. Any month for Sydney. You can't DO IT, you are chicken or just UNABLE. Until you ARE able, I suggest you all cease from whining and carrying on like unhappy children. Someone, someone come forth with a forecast. Please. Then we can all watch us BOTH. > One would presume that if he claims to be better than chance, then he has > done the analysis to prove this. Therefore there is no reason why this > should not be shared with the scientific community so that he can gain the > accreditation deserved. I get all the accreditation I need from grateful farmers and orchadists. I don't need to convince the so-called scientific community, so-called because apart from some exceptions most won't even investigate the science of the moon. It is up to scientists to come to me, not me go to them. But first they have to examine what it is that I am talking about. My books are out there, they are cheap, they are verifiable, they point the way for others to do the empirical work in their neighborhoods. Many have already done this and are well on the way. They don't need scientists tucked away in their labs, away from the real world, protective of their tiny intellectual domains and resistant to any alteration of thinking due to the possible input of new ideas, to tell them what to do. And if you study your science history you will realise that what you all call science was built on the efforts of men such as Copernicus, Galileo, Newton, Franklin, Kepler, Lamark and Laplace, all ASTROLOGERS and all LUNAR FORECASTERS. So wakey wakey, people, this is not new stuff. I DID rediscover it in my own way and I do deserve some credit for THAT, but anyone else can too, just by devoting time and application to the task. Easy to talk about not doing it. Phil wrote > I remember as a kid that every farmer for miles around would consult the > phase and position of the moon to decide which date to start their > ploughing, seeding, etc. and that they would all look up what Inigo > Jones said in the Weekly Times, but none of them ever paid much attention > to what the (then) Weather Bureau said for such planning. On the other > hand, if they were taking Saturday arvo off to go to the footy, then they > would look at the Weather Bureau's forecast for the day. It is the same around here. From farmers I get the comment "everyone KNOWS the moon creates weather.." Yes, everyone except the meteorologists > All I can conclude is that the moon has some sort of very definite effect > on the weather for a given location. What I cannot understand is why > these city-bound scientists can't see the relevance of it; it is as > though they have been brainwashed to be unable to see the connections. Because it's a little hard and time consuming they won't attempt it. It has taken me 25 years so far, and I'm only at the edge even now. It's not something computers can just zap to, either, so the scientists tend to shy away. > The competition we have been watching over the past month is therefore > somewhat like trying to compare an apple with an orange. The BoM should > never be pitted against Ken Ring. Of course. The BoM openly admits it has no longrange system. But then they all presume to have an opinion on global warming, the climate in SIXTY YEARS TIME!! And they can't even do it by their own admission past 7 days! How dumb is that.. Ken Ring www.predictweather.com ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 16:30:55 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, astro-weather at topica.com From: Carl Smith Subject: RE: aus-wx: More thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi John and All. Regarding: >I understand the effect of the moon on the oceans and the resulting tides. >Water is a fluid substance and only very slightly compressible and has to >flow around obstacles like continents. The atmosphere though is completely >different in substance and is highly compressible, and it can expand & >contract according to gravitational pull, thus there is little impetus for >it flow horizontally or any real obstacles that it would need to flow >around. But I'll let you know the day that I confirm twice daily winds >screaming in opposite directions over the NZ alps or Great Dividing Range, >coordinated with the Moon's orbit. Granted the dynamics in the atmosphere are somewhat different to the dynamics in water due to fact that air can be compressed more easily than water and is of lower density, however there are many 'obstacles' in the air that correspond to the landmasses that water needs to flow around. There are the considerable effects in lower atmospheric levels of the land terrain compared to the relatively smooth passage of air over water - the air has to flow around/over things like mountain ranges producing unique local conditions that are to some extent transferred vertically. There are also the daytime warm pools produced above continents due to the heating effects of the Sun on the ground beneath, and a large cold pool over the antarctic and arctic. These produce gradients that take part in the formation of pressure circulations - E coast lows would not form without an inland trough forming then moving offshore - they do not just pop up haphazardly somewhere in the ocean but require the presence of a continent to form. Global topography to some extent determines where low and high pressure circulations form, solar heating and atmospheric tides play a part in both where and when. Regards, Carl. >Hi Carl, > >Yes, probably a poor choice of words. Proof is not something that applies >to the scientific method. The scientific method is to produce theories to >explain the observed physical processes and these theories are only good >until some piece of evidence refutes them - at which stage a better theory >is needed. It is by this process of progressively developing and refining >theories that a scientist seeks to understand nature. > >Thus I should have said "Scientific evidence" rather than proof in relation >to the fuel devices. > >But as far as the Moon's influence goes, please note that I categorically >did NOT say that I needed scientific proof as to this influence - merely >that I needed to understand the processes involved. > >So I have spent some time at Ken's website to try and gather this >understanding... Quite enlightening. (I particularly liked the bit about >planes flying into vacuum holes during King atmospheric tides). > >Re your comments about understanding electricity and gravity etc., we may >not truely understand these things, but we sure have some compelling >theories. Ken also has a theory. The question is whether it holds any >water (or should that be precipitation, ugh), or whether is it a crackpot >theory like the "Big Bang" theory (oh that will raise some eyebrows). But >in the scientific method, it remains a valid theory until refuted - but only >one piece of evidence can do that (failure to show statistical advantage >over chance for instance, or destruction of a fundamental tenet upon which >it is based). > >I understand the effect of the moon on the oceans and the resulting tides. >Water is a fluid substance and only very slightly compressible and has to >flow around obstacles like continents. The atmosphere though is completely >different in substance and is highly compressible, and it can expand & >contract according to gravitational pull, thus there is little impetus for >it flow horizontally or any real obstacles that it would need to flow >around. But I'll let you know the day that I confirm twice daily winds >screaming in opposite directions over the NZ alps or Great Dividing Range, >coordinated with the Moon's orbit. > >Regards, >John. >>snip >-----Original Message----- >From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com >[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Carl Smith >Sent: Thursday, February 07, 2002 1:11 AM >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com; astro-weather at topica.com >Cc: Ken Ring >Subject: RE: aus-wx: More thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate > > >Hi John and All. > >>Hi Phil, >> >>I wonder though, if the mere existence of folk doing long range weather >>forecasting is sufficient for some people to puchase their services. There >>are for example, a number of devices one can purchase to "improve" fuel >>consumption in cars - which consist of nothing more than a magnet or two >>wrapped around the fuel line and some nice packaging. People buy these and >>swear by them, even when there is no scientific proof whatsoever that they >>do anything at all. > >Whilst it is true that their are a minority of people who can be conned >into purchasing just about anything, the farmers and others who purchase LR >forecasting products use them to plan their longer term activities. > >The farmers do not need 'scientific' proof because they find the proof they >need in the success or failure of planting their crops at the right times >to take advantage of forecast periods of rain and timing their harvests to >take advantage of forecast periods of fine weather. > >As many farmers do not have much cash to splash around, if the LR forecasts >were generally unreliable the costs of the inevitable crop failures >resulting from planning their activities around something no better than >chance would most certainly cause them to think twice before purchasing LR >forecasts again, as they reason they purchase them is to get an economic >advantage over plain chance. > >I cannot understand how meteorologists and the scientifically inclined can >honestly keep propagating the myth that the farmers are being conned and >are somehow too stupid to realise it - most farmers whom I have had the >pleasure of knowing are pretty shrewd customers when it comes to assessing >the values of things and of what they budget to spend on which resources. > >When the BoM gets it's forecasts wrong from time to time they go into >damage control trying to convince a rather skeptical public (including >farmers) that they are really doing OK overall with their accuracy. Don't >you think the same skepticism also applies to LR forecasters when they get >it wrong? > >> >>As a scientist, for me to be a true believer in the influence of the Moon >on >>weather, I need to understand the physical processes involved. > >It is possible to see whether something works or not without 'scientific' >proof. > >Anyone can see that electricity works when we turn on a light switch >without needing one iota of scientific understanding, but show me one >scientist that can adequately explain the phenomenon of electricity without >the use of unproven fundamental assumptions at some point in the process. > >Also, if I hold a cricket ball at arms length and let it go, it heads >towards the centre of the Earth at increasing speed until such time as >something physical such as the ground stops it. Can you show me one >scientist that can adequately explain gravity? > >If we required absolute scientific proof of all the forces/mechanisms >involved before putting these forces to practical use we would still be in >the Dark Ages, so why not put lunar effects on the weather to practical >use, even if we cannot yet adequately explain them to the nth degree? > >> >>There can be no question that the Sun is the primary motivator of the >>atmosphere. This source of heat is the reason behind the temperature >>differences beween the Poles & the Equator, day and night, ocean vs land, >>etc.. The Sun drives the enormous convection engines that stir the >>atmosphere into life, which in turn leads to the circulations such as the >>trade winds, jet streams, etc.. >> >>One has to ask, what role the moon plays? > >The Lunar cycles apparently play a modulatory role on the Solar seasonal >cycle by influencing where and when circulation systems and jet streams >form and where they will go from there. > >> Unless there is some other >>physical 'force' about which we know nothing, the only two which spring to >>mind are reflected radiation and gravity. Anyone who has camped outside >>under a full moon on a freezingly cold winter night can attest to the fact >>that very little heat is supplied through re-radiation of sunlight! The >>gravitational pull in comparison, is considerable, causing tides in the >>Earth itself, the oceans and the atmosphere. > >One does not need to invent an imaginary force - gravity will do just fine >if it's effects are well enough understood. > >> >>One could imagine perhaps, that having oceans rising and falling several >>meters would displace quite a lot of atmosphere and maybe this causes the >>air to flow from high tide regions to low tide regions. But then again, >the >>gravitational effect on mass is always the same, thus the atmosphere is >>pulled along with the oceans and the earth, and the net effect is pretty >>mnuch zero. > >The ocean tides ebb and flow in a monthly amplitude cycle showing a net >effect rather greater than zero by helping to drive the current >circulations that flow around our ocean basins - if you want to see this, >look at the amazing tidal currents that flow through restricted areas such >as the Torres Strait causing water to move from one basin to another which >never moves back again to exactly the same extent on the next part of the >tidal cycle as subsequent tidal highs and lows are not uniform, setting up >frequent flows of water so effecting the currents in the basins. > >Is it too much of a stretch of the imagination to consider that perhaps the >atmospheric tides that also ebb and flow in tandem with the ocean tides >have a net effect also greater than zero on atmospheric flows? > >> >>Therefore I am led to conclude that if the moon does sigificantly influence >>weather, then it may be by some application of chaos theory or resonant >>effect. Chaos theory applies to highly non-linear dynamic systems like the >>atmosphere and explains why we may never be able to accurately forecast >>conditions more than about 10 days ahead, given even the fastest computers >>and most accurate models. But it maybe that tiny lunar influences applied >>over a wide area, magnify through chaos event progression to become a large >>scale significant influence. >> >>The other way that a tiny event can build into a significant event is by >>resonance. Maybe the repetitive nature of the Moon's influence builds and >>maintains a high altitude resonant wave in the atmosphere which in turn >acts >>to influence and coordinate lower level systems, from whence cometh the 7 >>day change cycle often observed in mid-latitudes... > >You do not need to bring the Choas theory into it. The Soli-Lunar cycle is >a clearly defined resonant type waveform. > >The effects of the atmospheric tides when considered at a planetary level >are not insignificant, even if it only averages around +-2 hPa at Cairns. >This variable amplitude twice daily wave that has it's peak somewhere >between latitudes 29N and 29S depending on Lunar/Solar declination in a >monthly/yearly cycle *must* have some influence on weather systems, even if >only small at any particular point and moment, however the accumulated >effects of these variable amplitude pushes and pulls over wide areas and >periods of days must be enormous. > >The wave peak spends two weeks in the northern hemisphere and the next two >weeks in the southern hemisphere, so nudging weather systems alternatively >further N and then further S, and has the modulation factors of the yearly >Solar gravity wave cycle and the Lunar distance gravity amplitude cycle >superimposed on it, making it quite a complex long period wave form. > >For periods of time the cycles are reasonably well aligned adding their >effects and giving us the regular 7 day cyclic pattern in temperate weather >systems, however they then get out of synch for a while where their effects >tend to cancel so the 7 day pattern breaks down, before re-establishing as >the cycles become better aligned again. > >It is not suprising that some who have bothered to look into it by the >isolation of one part of this complex waveform and checking weather records >against it have not come up with meaningful results - it undoubtably >requires consideration of all the major components of the waveform as a >unit to reveal any meaningful correlation, and the correspondences will >only show themselves over long periods of time, which is why LR forecasters >use weather records from previous occasions when the major cyclic >components aligned in a similar manner to make their forecasts for any >particular time. > >Also, even the best past alignments are never a perfect match to current >ones, so there will always be a margin of error - the better the cyclic >alignment the more reliable the forecast. > >> >>But this is just pure guesswork, as is, I fear, most long range >forecasting. >>It amuses me that Ken uses a statistical argument to dismiss the results of >>the 1 month "Ken vs the Rngs" comparison, on the basis that the sample was >>"too small to be taken seriously", yet he is unwilling to submit to a >longer >>term statistical analysis which would determine whether his method is >indeed >>better than pure guesswork as claimed. > >If you really want to submit Ken's work to a longer term statistical >analysis he provides free monthly forecasts for many New Zealand locations >on his website at http://www.predictweather.com and you can get these prior >to the start of each month and check them against daily observations to >your hearts content, so building up the body of evidence over time for many >locations in a variety climatic situations that should be sufficient to >support or refute Ken. > >> >>One would presume that if he claims to be better than chance, then he has >>done the analysis to prove this. Therefore there is no reason why this >>should not be shared with the scientific community so that he can gain the >>accreditation deserved. > >One does not need detailed scientific analysis to observe that something is >better than chance. > >If I see a big thunderstorm headed in my direction I can assume that there >is better than chance odds that I am going to experience a thunderstorm >shortly without doing any extensive scientific analysis to come to such a >conclusion. Common sense is a keen assessor of chance. > >Ken's accreditation comes from his many satisfied clients, many of whom >also keep track of how accurate he is and feed it back to him, so allowing >him to claim better than chance results. It is up to the scientific >community to do the necessary research if a 'scientific' level of proof is >needed. > >> >>Regards, >>John W. > >Regards, >Carl. > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul Yole" To: "Wx-Chase" , "Australian Weather Mailing List" Subject: aus-wx: Foot Chase 07/02 Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 18:01:01 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey All, Well, it would happen today. Of all the days I had to work, a storm went directly over Murtoa. To make matters worse, it did it an hour before I had to finish just to tease me. Anyway, it was quite a nice storm. Some very impressive CG's, one Flang which scared about 50 primary school kids. Some intense rain followed for about 2-3 minutes, with some localised flooding due to drains being blocked with leaf litter. I then got home and with no car to chase, decided to go "foot chasing" over to the railway station in preparation of the second storm that was heading towards me. Anyway, this storm crapped out pretty quick, turning into just a rain event, but with some rumbles. A cell which moved to my South though looked better, although it was pretty quiet. Hope everyone else had a good day...Today and last Friday have definitely cleared out the SDS. PaulY Paul Yole Joint State Rep - Vic ASWA Communications Officer - Murtoa CFA Cell # - 041 836 9256 Home# - 035 385 2699 http://www.severeweather.asn.au "Lord, Grant me the Courage to change the things that I can change, the Strength to accept the things I can not change and the Wisdom to hide the bodies of the people I had to kill because they pissed me off......." - Author Unknown +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: VIC storm - deviant motion To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 18:27:25 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com SCs: An isolated storm ahead of the change is moving SSW towards a point E of Leongatha. This storm has better moisture and storm-relative flow than any other cell. Hmmm, Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Glen O'Riley" To: "Weather List Aussie" Subject: aus-wx: Today (thursday) Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 18:28:43 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Well folks, Forster/Taree area got a few rumbles, a little bit of lightening (nothing to brag about) but whilst driving we had to slow to 40 as noone could see the road in front. It was enough to put the bridge under water again. Thankyou to T Johnston about the dog.....we finally found his body today a couple of kilometres down the creek. I can still remember seeing him floating down the creek and not being able to do anything about it. The family miss him and so do the other 2 dogs. He was about 12month old and was just turning into a good obedient worker. --------------------- Glen O'Riley Computer Technician goriley at tsn.cc www.linx.iwarp.com -------------------- Storm Chaser Firefighter SES Volunteer CB Radio Monitor ------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\Glen Patrick O'Riley3.vcf" X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p410-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.148.156] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Thu, 07 Feb 2002 18:35:01 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW convection Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Michael, Did the SUPERCELL storm develop in the region near Coffs Harbour? Just inquisitive. Have there been reports of damage? What do others think of the storms in the region as well as storm situation for tomorrow there and as far down as Sydney/Hunter. I note that there is a nice jet that will circulate around a developing low tomorrow. The location of the trough and the lower level wind shear is critical as to the development of possible supercells particularly off the coast. Cloud clearing plus hopeful breaks in the middle level cloud allowing heating should also be critical to the potential Friday. I await with interest. Jimmy Deguara At 03:10 PM 7/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Keep a watch on the cells firing along the NSW North Coast. I have just >received a report from the BoM in Sydney that the cell NW of Grafton at >3pm is a supercell - as identified by radar. The cell has been active for >over 90 mins already. > >Heading NE towards Ballina area at the momemt. > >Michael > > > ================================================================== > Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au > McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ > North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ > Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ > ================================================================== > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >message. >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: duckman.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 22:02:34 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic storm chase Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Great to hear Liam. Here's the local radar loop of Melbourne for today. http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_07/melblocal.gif If you want any individual images, or the 256km images, just email me. And note the back building cell to the SE of Pakenham which started around 8pm, which Jane found herself under! On Thu, 7 Feb 2002, Liam Domanski wrote: > Hi weather peoples. > > Macca and I had a great chase to the west of Melb today. > > Saw a small funnel or 2, and some AWESOME storms!!!! Possibly a HP > Supercell with very nice GREEN clouds out near Ballarat. > > Converged with Nick near Ballan, and chased back to Melb. > > Some NICE pics and video footage coming your way from the 3 of us. > > ROCK ON VICTORIA!!!! > > Liam > Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" , "Aussie weather" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gilmore A.C.T. AWS back on line just in time to see the rain event end! Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 22:06:52 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Feb 2002 11:07:02.0494 (UTC) FILETIME=[91F12FE0:01C1AFC7] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
A massive storm developed over North canberra (gunghalin) at Sunset, i saw (lightning) 10 Cloud to Air, 5 Cgs, 2 Cloud to Cloud and a Bunch of Intracloud stuff, frequency was 1/5secs at one stage and averaged 1/30secs, just after leaving the ACT border it went red on radar, hopefully my browser is cache'ing the radar so i can loop it later...
 
Also got some great sunset shots with 3 distant Cbs north of the ACT and the developing Cb that caught me by surprise (the one mention above).
 
tomorrow (8/2) i will go up to Mt rogers in the suburb of melba, to get a 360* over canberra and north! i have 3 * 24ex film, but i think i will need more!!!
 
Cheers
 
Simon Angell
Canberra ACT
ICQ# 128920513
www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001/
and the site in development
www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/
 
www.canberra-wx.com <---My new domain, not running yet!!!!
 
From: "Nick Sykes" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic storm chase Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 22:26:19 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey all Just done a quick sort through my pics, only put up the gust front pics so far, will do the rest later. http://www.pbase.com/njsykes/feb7_2002 This was a lovely gustfront to look at. Should be some lovely pics and vid from Liam and macca whom I met up with on the chase. Nick +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: aus-wx: Vic storm chases ............a funnel & another wonderful storm image to whet your appetite Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 22:36:48 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > ROCK ON VICTORIA!!!! > > Liam The first of the images from today's chase from people is up here - Clyve Herbert got a video grab of a funnel (!!) at Little River at 1316hrs (correct time - video clock out) http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Feb02/0207ch01.JPG ...and courtesy of Chris & Tiff Daley, a taste of things from the eastern suburbs...more to come http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Feb02/070202b.jpg I had a look out to the west, but unfortunately hadn't been able to escape as early as Andrew, Liam & Nick - I saw a couple of flashes on my way home so (with a bit of radar help from Robert Goler & the guys at the BoM) I ended up sitting (swimming could be a better term) around the Cranbourne - Five Ways area. Have lots of video of close cgs, heavy rain, flash flooding..... More to come, lots more!!! -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: aus-wx: severe storm cell on radar to N.E. A.C.T. Observvations from Gilmore 22.30 hrs Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 21:39:59 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 Hi all,
Sydney Radar is showing an intense echo to the North east of the A.C.T. I went out to observe the action but low clouds moving from northeast hamper view. In any case a hill blocks our view in that direction. I can tell you that there is only infrequent lightning from that direction.rather more from a smaller cell to our east southeast. Seems the storm has passed its peak.Interesting that the echo is so strong. Any local reports of damage etc I will pass on in the morning.
Gavin O'Brien  S.S.W W. Canberra.
From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW convection Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 20:13:09 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jimmy we are watching the sit here I won't repeat earlier comments but will be interested to see if we have some action on the Brindabellas again tommorrow, Gavin SSW ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jimmy Deguara" To: Sent: Thursday, February 07, 2002 6:35 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW convection > Michael, > > Did the SUPERCELL storm develop in the region near Coffs Harbour? Just > inquisitive. > > Have there been reports of damage? What do others think of the storms in > the region as well as storm situation for tomorrow there and as far down as > Sydney/Hunter. > > I note that there is a nice jet that will circulate around a developing low > tomorrow. The location of the trough and the lower level wind shear is > critical as to the development of possible supercells particularly off the > coast. Cloud clearing plus hopeful breaks in the middle level cloud > allowing heating should also be critical to the potential Friday. > > I await with interest. > > Jimmy Deguara > > At 03:10 PM 7/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: > > >Keep a watch on the cells firing along the NSW North Coast. I have just > >received a report from the BoM in Sydney that the cell NW of Grafton at > >3pm is a supercell - as identified by radar. The cell has been active for > >over 90 mins already. > > > >Heading NE towards Ballina area at the momemt. > > > >Michael > > > > > > ================================================================== > > Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au > > McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ > > North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ > > Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ > > ================================================================== > > > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > >message. > >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: severe storm cell on radar to N.E. Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 00:22:01 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Feb 2002 13:29:06.0729 (UTC) FILETIME=[6AC83990:01C1AFDB] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
12am...Another cell pops up in N.canberra, not quite as active but right Over me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2morrow looks even better!!!
SA
---- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, February 07, 2002 9:39 PM
Subject: aus-wx: severe storm cell on radar to N.E. A.C.T. Observvations from Gilmore 22.30 hrs

 Hi all,
Sydney Radar is showing an intense echo to the North east of the A.C.T. I went out to observe the action but low clouds moving from northeast hamper view. In any case a hill blocks our view in that direction. I can tell you that there is only infrequent lightning from that direction.rather more from a smaller cell to our east southeast. Seems the storm has passed its peak.Interesting that the echo is so strong. Any local reports of damage etc I will pass on in the morning.
Gavin O'Brien  S.S.W W. Canberra.
X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 00:41:50 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: Fwd: Re: [AW]: aus-wx: More thoughts ...FREE forecasts FYI Cc: "Richard Holle" Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. I thought I would forward the email below on. It is from US astrometeorologist Richard Holle who has been getting some of the posts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate via the astro-weather list, which Ken Ring is also on. His website has some interesting theoretical material followed up with some of a more scientific nature on extraterrestial influences on our weather for those who may like to check it out. Of particular interest to some may be his study of heliocentric planetary relationships to the SOI, and also his forecasts for Morning Glory waves in the Gulf of Carpentaria based on the Lunar Declinational cycle and the subsequent observations of those who enjoy gliding on them (follow the links). Regards, Carl. X-From_: aerology at dustdevil.com Thu Feb 7 17:04:10 2002 User-Agent: Microsoft-Outlook-Express-Macintosh-Edition/5.02.2022 Date: Thu, 07 Feb 2002 00:58:56 -0600 Subject: Re: [AW]: aus-wx: More thoughts ...FREE forecasts FYI From: "Richard Holle" To: , "John Woodbridge (by way of Carl Smith)" CC: Carl Smith Mime-version: 1.0 X-SLUIDL: 06A61612-A16A49BC-A0CDCC63-DB921D0A Same basic ideas but forecasts for the USA last updated a year ago, Information detailed on the driving forces involved for your education. (John Woodbridge) as the others on this list are familar with the data and opions posted on my site... -- Richard Holle aerology at dustdevil.com http://www.aerology.com Ken Ring2/6/02 2:41 PMken at weatherman.co.nz > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "John Woodbridge (by way of Carl Smith)" > To: "Ken Ring" > Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 6:24 PM > Subject: RE: aus-wx: More thoughts on the "Ken vs the RNGs" debate > > > >> I wonder though, if the mere existence of folk doing long range weather >> forecasting is sufficient for some people to puchase their services. > There >> are for example, a number of devices one can purchase to "improve" fuel >> consumption in cars - which consist of nothing more than a magnet or two >> wrapped around the fuel line and some nice packaging. People buy these > and >> swear by them, even when there is no scientific proof whatsoever that they >> do anything at all. > Farmers buy my forecasts in droves. I am constantly booked to address > farners' seminars - I did about 8 last year. Those guys call a spade a > spade. They are not fools and don't suffer them gladly. They are the first > to say bullshit if anything fails to come up to scratch. Yet they say to me > "the metservice is about as useful as tits on a bull", "you are the only one > around who has any accuracy" and, quote from the editorial in Farm Trader, > January 2002 issue, circulation 10,000 "..in October the National Climate > centre said November and December would be drier than average. in fact, > November was surprisingly wet and December was the same. I know of only one > forecaster that expected anything like what happened. Ken Ring, the Auckland > man who bases his weather predictions on the phases of the moon got it right > when he said, over a year ago, that this November would be wet and December > would be wetter.." So come on guys, credit where credit's due. Scientific > proof is nice but proof is also a function of the usefulness of something > that works. > >> As a scientist, for me to be a true believer in the influence of the Moon > on >> weather, I need to understand the physical processes involved. > Then as a scientist, study them with the same rigor that you are applying to > your prejudice. Buy my book Predicting Weather By The Moon. In the back > you'll find 30 research papers from respectable universities. Follow them > up. They are research fellows and climatologists, not new age dopeys.. > Otherwise, pl-ease don't presume to comment on something you know nothing > about. > >> There can be no question that the Sun is the primary motivator of the >> atmosphere. >> One has to ask, what role the moon plays? > If the sun was the only factor weather should be the same each day of the > year, because the sun's rotation is constant, as it the earth's rotation. > Obviously weather is not. So what mixes it? The sun is the heat engine but > the moon is the mixer. Watch clouds build up as the moon sets. Do a little > investigation. > >> One could imagine perhaps, that having oceans rising and falling several >> meters would displace quite a lot of atmosphere and maybe this causes the >> air to flow from high tide regions to low tide regions. > The air has a tide. We live between the two tides of air and of water. > > But then again, the >> gravitational effect on mass is always the same, thus the atmosphere is >> pulled along with the oceans and the earth, and the net effect is pretty >> much zero. > Wrong. Study the moon and you'll see why. The moon changes its distance > daily, changes its declination and changes position relative to the sun. It > also changes speed when crossing equator, when at new moon, when > declinations N or S. And all of this changes proportionatedly over 18.613 > years due to a larger cycle. You'll get nowhere until you study it. And > you've got a lot to do so get cracking! > >> Therefore I am led to conclude that if the moon does sigificantly > influence >> weather, then it may be by some application of chaos theory or resonant >> effect. Chaos theory applies to highly non-linear dynamic systems like > the >> atmosphere and explains why we may never be able to accurately forecast >> conditions more than about 10 days ahead, given even the fastest computers >> and most accurate models. But it maybe that tiny lunar influences applied >> over a wide area, magnify through chaos event progression to become a > large >> scale significant influence. > Yeah right, maybe this, maybe that..Forget Chaos theory, which was dreamed > up by weather scientists at Princeton in 1976 to cover their ignorance of > LR. Study the moon's orbiting behaviours. Don't assume anything until you > have read up on it. Otherwise you'll be maybe-ing for the rest of your > lives. > >> The other way that a tiny event can build into a significant event is by >> resonance. Maybe the repetitive nature of the Moon's influence builds and >> maintains a high altitude resonant wave in the atmosphere which in turn > acts >> to influence and coordinate lower level systems, from whence cometh the 7 >> day change cycle often observed in mid-latitudes... >> But this is just pure guesswork, as is, I fear, most long range > forecasting. > Talk about the pot calling the kettle black! What is this that you're doing > if it's not guesswork? Study the thing man, stop shooting around in the > dark. > >> It amuses me that Ken uses a statistical argument to dismiss the results > of >> the 1 month "Ken vs the Rngs" comparison, on the basis that the sample was >> "too small to be taken seriously", yet he is unwilling to submit to a > longer >> term statistical analysis which would determine whether his method is > indeed >> better than pure guesswork as claimed. > Hey, I've put out a monthly challenge. No one is matching me. Here's a race > in which I seem to be the only willing starter. I've scared off all the > opposition(I've told you all why it's unfair to put out a yearly forecast. > People have already paid for it. You must accept that). So far I've won. I > get all the prizes. > I'm waiting for my challenge to be met but you'd rather hit at my legs with > a stick rather than race against me. I repeat: put up a monthly forecast. I > will do the same. Any month for Sydney. You can't DO IT, you are chicken or > just UNABLE. > Until you ARE able, I suggest you all cease from whining and carrying on > like unhappy children. Someone, someone come forth with a forecast. Please. > Then we can all watch us BOTH. > >> One would presume that if he claims to be better than chance, then he has >> done the analysis to prove this. Therefore there is no reason why this >> should not be shared with the scientific community so that he can gain the >> accreditation deserved. > I get all the accreditation I need from grateful farmers and orchadists. I > don't need to convince the so-called scientific community, so-called because > apart from some exceptions most won't even investigate the science of the > moon. It is up to scientists to come to me, not me go to them. But first > they have to examine what it is that I am talking about. My books are out > there, they are cheap, they are verifiable, they point the way for others to > do the empirical work in their neighborhoods. Many have already done this > and are well on the way. They don't need scientists tucked away in their > labs, away from the real world, protective of their tiny intellectual > domains and resistant to any alteration of thinking due to the possible > input of new ideas, to tell them what to do. And if you study your science > history you will realise that what you all call science was built on the > efforts of men such as Copernicus, Galileo, Newton, Franklin, Kepler, Lamark > and Laplace, all ASTROLOGERS and all LUNAR FORECASTERS. > So wakey wakey, people, this is not new stuff. I DID rediscover it in my own > way and I do deserve some credit for THAT, but anyone else can too, just by > devoting time and application to the task. Easy to talk about not doing it. > > Phil wrote >> I remember as a kid that every farmer for miles around would consult the >> phase and position of the moon to decide which date to start their >> ploughing, seeding, etc. and that they would all look up what Inigo >> Jones said in the Weekly Times, but none of them ever paid much attention >> to what the (then) Weather Bureau said for such planning. On the other >> hand, if they were taking Saturday arvo off to go to the footy, then they >> would look at the Weather Bureau's forecast for the day. > It is the same around here. From farmers I get the comment "everyone KNOWS > the moon creates weather.." > Yes, everyone except the meteorologists > >> All I can conclude is that the moon has some sort of very definite effect >> on the weather for a given location. What I cannot understand is why >> these city-bound scientists can't see the relevance of it; it is as >> though they have been brainwashed to be unable to see the connections. > Because it's a little hard and time consuming they won't attempt it. It has > taken me 25 years so far, and I'm only at the edge even now. It's not > something computers can just zap to, either, so the scientists tend to shy > away. > >> The competition we have been watching over the past month is therefore >> somewhat like trying to compare an apple with an orange. The BoM should >> never be pitted against Ken Ring. > Of course. The BoM openly admits it has no longrange system. But then they > all presume to have an opinion on global warming, the climate in SIXTY YEARS > TIME!! And they can't even do it by their own admission past 7 days! How > dumb is that.. > Ken Ring > www.predictweather.com > ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Dean McWhinney" To: Subject: aus-wx: Who said sydney doesnt get good lightning shows! Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 02:30:54 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Just now 2.29 am fri 8 feb LOVELY lightning display off the coast 2 flashes per second at times awesome CCs and the whole cell lights up wish i had a video camera! +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [198.142.243.13] From: "Karl Lijnders" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic storm chases ............a funnel & another wonderful storm image to whet your appetite Date: Fri, 08 Feb 2002 02:34:22 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Feb 2002 15:34:22.0907 (UTC) FILETIME=[EAC5F8B0:01C1AFEC] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Certainly looking forward to the ASWA meeting, we are going to have lots to talk about. Great footage there, what is a storm day in VIC without a tornado and the odd drizzle patch Jne;) Lightning and Severe Thunderstorms across much of the west again, but you all would not know cause your all sleeping. See ya'll Karl:) >From: "Jane ONeill" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: >Subject: aus-wx: Vic storm chases ............a funnel & another wonderful >storm image to whet your appetite >Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2002 22:36:48 +1100 > > > > ROCK ON VICTORIA!!!! > > > > Liam > >The first of the images from today's chase from people is up here - >Clyve Herbert got a video grab of a funnel (!!) at Little River at >1316hrs (correct time - video clock out) >http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Feb02/0207ch01.JPG > >...and courtesy of Chris & Tiff Daley, a taste of things from the >eastern suburbs...more to come >http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Feb02/070202b.jpg > >I had a look out to the west, but unfortunately hadn't been able to >escape as early as Andrew, Liam & Nick - I saw a couple of flashes on my >way home so (with a bit of radar help from Robert Goler & the guys at >the BoM) I ended up sitting (swimming could be a better term) around the >Cranbourne - Five Ways area. Have lots of video of close cgs, heavy >rain, flash flooding..... > >More to come, lots more!!! >-------------------------------- >Jane ONeill - Melbourne >cadence at stormchasers.au.com > >Melbourne Storm Chasers >http://www.stormchasers.au.com > >ASWA - Victoria >http://www.severeweather.asn.au >-------------------------------- > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: "Aussie weather" Subject: aus-wx: Last nights RADAR and a bit more!!! Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 04:21:34 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Feb 2002 17:21:32.0722 (UTC) FILETIME=[E33DE120:01C1AFFB] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com SYD 256km Radar loop of the last night action can be found at www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/animation.gif AND for those who are interested i have some of my Holiday pics up http://www.canberra-wx.com/pics/cruisephotos/5932917-665/ <----------Some very nice Tropical Cbs in that lot http://www.canberra-wx.com/pics/cruisephotos/5932918-723/ <----------Isle of pines http://www.canberra-wx.com/pics/cruisephotos/5932914-883/ <----------Underwater Shots http://www.canberra-wx.com/pics/cruisephotos/5932915-717/ <----------Havannah Passage, Funny "eggshell" cloud cover and Tropical rain in that Mix. Enjoy them.. 8 more lots (of 24) to scan in...And 50 more photos from the Multicell storm 2/2 and another bunch last Night and MORE from today (i hope) Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: "Aussie weather" Subject: aus-wx: Circulation on Melb radar Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 06:41:20 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Feb 2002 19:42:30.0802 (UTC) FILETIME=[94A67720:01C1B00F] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Fantastic circulation on Melb radar thanks to a tight upper level Low(as said by Mark Hardy, aka gustfront on WZ forum)...He also said this will make things interesting in Southern NSW this afternoon, Just want other Peoples thoughts on Southern NSW/ACT prospects for today, ill be back on around 2pm, then i will head off to my lookout :) Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001/ and the site in development www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Victoria's low Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 06:50:04 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, Interesting to see the spin up over central Victoria with the wraparound bringing significant rain - 30 - 70mm so far. Looks like the wraparound will move back across central Victoria today and appears that TC Chris will converge into the low over SE Australia. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Bussy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Circulation on Melb radar Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 06:57:10 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Was just going to post something very similar. Have the Melb 512k radar loop running and it looks awesome :-) A few bangs here about 3.30am and 4.6mm. Clear sky to the west now. May be interesting later though. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Simon Angell" To: "Aussie weather" Sent: Friday, February 08, 2002 6:41 AM Subject: aus-wx: Circulation on Melb radar > Fantastic circulation on Melb radar thanks to a tight upper level Low(as > said by Mark Hardy, aka gustfront on WZ forum)...He also said this will make > things interesting in Southern NSW this afternoon, Just want other Peoples > thoughts on Southern NSW/ACT prospects for today, +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Feb 2002 07:01:19 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Circulation on Melb radar Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com thoughts on today? it looks good for storms all over east NSW, not just south! Small upper low looks nice on radar just west of Melb! Off to work till 4pm then a chase =) Good luck to those NSW people that head out, should be a ripper day, take your cameras to work. Matt Smith Simon Angell wrote: > Fantastic circulation on Melb radar thanks to a tight upper level Low(as > said by Mark Hardy, aka gustfront on WZ forum)...He also said this will make > things interesting in Southern NSW this afternoon, Just want other Peoples > thoughts on Southern NSW/ACT prospects for today, > > ill be back on around 2pm, then i will head off to my lookout :) > > Simon Angell > Canberra ACT > ICQ# 128920513 > www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001/ > and the site in development > www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Circulation on Melb radar Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 07:14:34 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Feb 2002 20:14:28.0715 (UTC) FILETIME=[0BD0C3B0:01C1B014] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Im of to sleep till 2pm then up to the lookout! =) ----- Original Message ----- From: "Matthew Smith" To: Sent: Friday, February 08, 2002 7:01 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Circulation on Melb radar > thoughts on today? it looks good for storms all over east NSW, not just south! > Small upper low looks nice on radar just west of Melb! > > Off to work till 4pm then a chase =) Good luck to those NSW people that head > out, should be a ripper day, take your cameras to work. > > Matt Smith > > Simon Angell wrote: > > > Fantastic circulation on Melb radar thanks to a tight upper level Low(as > > said by Mark Hardy, aka gustfront on WZ forum)...He also said this will make > > things interesting in Southern NSW this afternoon, Just want other Peoples > > thoughts on Southern NSW/ACT prospects for today, > > > > ill be back on around 2pm, then i will head off to my lookout :) > > > > Simon Angell > > Canberra ACT > > ICQ# 128920513 > > www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001/ > > and the site in development > > www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: "Aussie weather" Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC - List speed Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 07:24:35 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Feb 2002 20:24:29.0832 (UTC) FILETIME=[721BF080:01C1B015] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com There has been quite alot of talk about the speed of this list in recent times, just though id mention that posting at 7am give im pressive results with delivery of the Post, today i had one delivered in 9min and another 5 minute!!!! bed time now +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Nick Sykes" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria's low Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 07:37:06 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Intense rain at aireys inlet on the surf coast in the last 3 hours total is now up to 92 mm with an area of pink hovering over the site. 28mm in the last hour. Nick +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Circulation on Melb radar Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 07:57:22 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Simon, Yep!! The Victorians have been discussing the possiblility of this happening for the past couple of days - the next thing to watch for is ex TC Chris's moisture being dragged in..... Keep an eye here for further discussion. (MSC Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page) http://www.stormchasers.au.com/feb2002.htm Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- Fantastic circulation on Melb radar thanks to a tight upper level Low(as said by Mark Hardy, aka gustfront on WZ forum)...He also said this will make things interesting in Southern NSW this afternoon, Just want other Peoples thoughts on Southern NSW/ACT prospects for today, ill be back on around 2pm, then i will head off to my lookout :) Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001/ and the site in development www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victoria's low Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 08:26:11 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning again, Aviation forecast for Victoria sounds rather delightful....nice temp drop at 18,500' (500hPa) TROUGH EXPECTED COROWA/WONTHAGGI 17Z AND COOMA/ORBOST BY 23Z AND OVTOX/MALLACOOTA AT 05Z. TROUGH SLOPES W WITH HEIGHT TO BE 200NM TO W AT 18500FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS TENDING TO RAIN NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RANGES WITHIN 300NM WEST OF TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HAIL, MAINLY WITHIN 200NM OF TROUGH. LOW CLOUD PATCHES IN PRECIPITATION E OF TROUGH, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON AND S OF RANGES W OF TROUGH. SUBDIVISIONS: A: E OF TROUGH B: W OF TROUGH WIND: 10000 14000 18500 A: 320/15 ZERO 330/20 MS07 330/25 MS16 B: 180/25 MS03 180/30 MS10 180/35 MS19 REMARKS: WINDS IN NW AROUND 15/20KNOTS STRONGER ABOVE 13000FT. SVC CLOUD: OCNL CB 4000/36000, CHIEFLY WITHIN 200NM OF TROUGH. Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- Intense rain at aireys inlet on the surf coast in the last 3 hours total is now up to 92 mm with an area of pink hovering over the site. 28mm in the last hour. Nick +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Lindsay Smail" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Circulation on Melb radar Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 08:21:56 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Movement of that low eastward resulted in clockwise band of t/s across Geelong & Bellarine Pen between 3 and 4 am moving from NNW with centre somewhere west of Meredith, but by 8 am another band moving up from SE with centre around Laverton. In 3 hours from 3am; at Modewarre 71mm, Marshall 60mm, Mt Duneed 26 mm, Aireys Inlet 45 mm, Grovedale 26 mm. Clyve was right (again!!). Lindsay Smail. -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill Sent: Friday, 8 February 2002 6:57 AM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: Circulation on Melb radar Hi Simon, Yep!! The Victorians have been discussing the possiblility of this happening for the past couple of days - the next thing to watch for is ex TC Chris's moisture being dragged in..... Keep an eye here for further discussion. (MSC Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page) http://www.stormchasers.au.com/feb2002.htm Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- Fantastic circulation on Melb radar thanks to a tight upper level Low(as said by Mark Hardy, aka gustfront on WZ forum)...He also said this will make things interesting in Southern NSW this afternoon, Just want other Peoples thoughts on Southern NSW/ACT prospects for today, ill be back on around 2pm, then i will head off to my lookout :) Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001/ and the site in development www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ --- Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Lindsay Smail" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Circulation on Melb radar Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 08:25:21 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com More amazing figures from Torquay: 85 mm between 3am - 8am. LS. -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill Sent: Friday, 8 February 2002 6:57 AM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: Circulation on Melb radar Hi Simon, Yep!! The Victorians have been discussing the possiblility of this happening for the past couple of days - the next thing to watch for is ex TC Chris's moisture being dragged in..... Keep an eye here for further discussion. (MSC Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page) http://www.stormchasers.au.com/feb2002.htm Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- Fantastic circulation on Melb radar thanks to a tight upper level Low(as said by Mark Hardy, aka gustfront on WZ forum)...He also said this will make things interesting in Southern NSW this afternoon, Just want other Peoples thoughts on Southern NSW/ACT prospects for today, ill be back on around 2pm, then i will head off to my lookout :) Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001/ and the site in development www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ --- Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: please no more! Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 08:39:25 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Of course. The BoM openly admits it has no longrange system. But then they >all presume to have an opinion on global warming, the climate in SIXTY YEARS >TIME!! And they can't even do it by their own admission past 7 days! How >dumb is that.. >Ken Ring Can I suggest to all list members that we cease the discussion about Ken and his forecasts. This is fast descending into a slanging match, and personally I find many of the statements in his last post offensive. Forecasting the weather on the basis of the moon (ie tidal influences) is like predicting how good the surf is at Bells Beach on the basis of a tide chart. If you want to do it or use such forecasts then good luck to you! Regards, David Dr David Jones +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p410-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.148.156] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Fri, 08 Feb 2002 09:01:11 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Storm outbreak for today? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, The combination of instability, incredible wind shear and persisting moisture from the past weather will make for the possibility of an incredible outbreak today. With the sun finally heating the atmosphere and extemely steep lapse rates (changing decreasing temperature with height) as well as cold air at the surface further west will make for a confined band of severe storms probably ahead of a squall line formation during the afternoon. It depends on timing but history has it unfavourable for us based on our location though you cannot ignore or at least hope for something to occur. The dynamics are some of the best I have seen this season but the lower level wind shear is more ideal about 100 odd kilometres off the coast for probable tornadoes. The amount of heating and lower level N-NE winds are crucial to the development of the pre trough region and formation of storms along this region. Anyone have a good boat, head out there off Sydney!!! I do believe from the models that the Central Coast is more ideally located, eastern Hunter later for this line. Sydney could get this line developing but mainly about 1 to 2pm which may have sufficient energy to take off. The satellite picture shows the a pre trough line just on the other side of the ranges which is where some of the storms near Canberra has been firing. There is another line further back near Dubbo Central West region and then the main squall line producing main band associated with the upper trough further west of that quite visible on all satpics. This latter band should be in Sydney later this afternoon. Take a look at the 5:30am CSIRO satpics: from the CSIRO Marine Research web page resized Please take note of the massive cells off the coast and drool. This is what is needed over the land for big time storm chasing like one would expect in the US in some cases. Jimmy Deguara ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: Big rainfall totals.. in Victoria. Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 09:01:33 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Of course it is still too early for the 9am reports, but there has been some impressive rainfall totals from last nights storms and this mornings rainband through central Victoria (focused on the Otways region). High fall so far is 93mm at Aireys Inlet, but one could reasonably expect somewhere to have cracked the 100.. Also note that the heavy rain has penetrated significantly inland (Lookout Hill getting 64mm). All up, probably not enough rain to produce much in the way of flooding. The situation over Victoria today is quite tricky, as the upper low drifts NE towards the Sydney region. There will certainly be some further significant rain, but the exact placement will depend on the orientation of the cloud and rainbands around the surface trough and upper low. Melbourne currently, sits between heavy bands to the south, east and west! but when the low level flow becomes more southerly could become favoured for some heavy rain - the situation is not unlike that which produced the very heavy rainfall March last year. Also, I notice that the models are starting to get a little more bullish about the follow-up cold front on Sunday, with thickness values now being progged to drop to around 540-548 over southern Victoria late Sunday. At the colder end we could see some heavy rain and hail showers develop and possibly some cold air thunderies (given the "warmth" of bass strait and the bays), and even some snow flurries around the peaks of Lake Mt and Baw Baw... Happy WX watching. David. Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p410-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.148.156] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Fri, 08 Feb 2002 09:16:36 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: please no more! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi David et al, I actually found his e-mail quite "funny" sorry. Not that I took his e-mail seriously. He obviously has been approached many times on this issue and thence is ready to attack whether it be sarcastically or not. I do agree there is some link to lunar effects on weather but as to his claims on his site that the moon controls "all" weather I find it hard to believe. Having said this, whether it be a coincidence or not, if the weather forecasts are accurate, no matter what method you use, then it is considered a forecast in my opinion. Though I am not sure of the accuracy of his David, I would not take his comments personally. In my opinion, the Bureau has improved their forecasting capabilities and seriousness immensely and particularly this summer. There are more details in synoptic charts so obviously meteorologists are taking it more seriously which is great. There have been great communication between BoM staff and weather enthusiasts particularly through the weather forums and storm spotting arenas. The BoM therefore should be congratulated!!! Jimmy Deguara At 08:39 AM 8/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: > >Of course. The BoM openly admits it has no longrange system. But then they > >all presume to have an opinion on global warming, the climate in SIXTY >YEARS > >TIME!! And they can't even do it by their own admission past 7 days! How > >dumb is that.. > >Ken Ring > >Can I suggest to all list members that we cease the discussion about Ken and >his forecasts. >This is fast descending into a slanging match, and personally I find many of >the statements in his last >post offensive. > >Forecasting the weather on the basis of the moon (ie tidal influences) is >like predicting >how good the surf is at Bells Beach on the basis of a tide chart. If you >want to do it or use such forecasts >then good luck to you! > >Regards, > >David > > >Dr David Jones > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Godsman, Andrew AG" To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" Subject: RE: aus-wx: Who said sydney doesnt get good lightning shows! Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 09:09:28 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com RE: aus-wx: Who said sydney doesnt get good lightning shows!

Hi everyone,

Promises to be a great day. The lightning off the coast of Wollongong this morning at 5am was great. Two areas of interest, the cells a little NE of Wollongong were giving lightning every second, mostly intracloud stuff, as well as a large cell probably further south of Batemans Bay. This cell had a persistent overshoot for at least the hour and a half I was running southwards. It may have been backbuilding, but the overshoot seemed to be located around the same area and to always be there. This was from shortly before 5am when I first spotted it, until at least 6:30 when I got to the gym.

Hopefully this is a sign of what is to come for us today. Also very encouraging to here of the storms at the ACT yesterday. And you Vics better keep this great footage coming, we'll never need to chase again up here with the quality of the stuff coming from the south.

Cheers
Andrew Godsman

-----Original Message-----
From: Dean McWhinney [mailto:mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au]
Sent: Friday, 8 February 2002 2:31 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Who said sydney doesnt get good lightning shows!


Just now 2.29 am fri 8 feb LOVELY lightning display off the coast 2 flashes
per second at times awesome CCs and the whole cell lights up wish i had a
video camera!

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EOM

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From: "Mark Hardy" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: please no more! Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 09:44:16 +1100 Organization: The Weather Company X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Personally, I have found the attempts at verifying these forecasts interesting. Particularly Blair's post highlightning the difficulties involved in objectively verifying forecasts of the style of Ken Ring and others would employ a similar presentation format. However, it should be possible to arrive at an objective method that reflects the intent of the forecast and verify this against a climatology benchmark. If the forecasts have marginal skill it may take some time for a trend to appear. However, if they are either very good or very poor a trend will show up quickly. I don't agree with the philosophy that if a client is prepared to pay money it must be good. We run a relatively successful commercial met business and we have some great products that are very hard to sell and conversely some dubious ones that clients can't get enough of. Commercial success is not always an indicator of quality no matter how discerning the buyer may appear to be. I would certainly prefer to see Ken's forecasts criticised or praised on the basis of sound verification system. To pontificate over the validity of his methods will always (as Dave has observed) turn into a slanging match between those of opposing beliefs. Mark Hardy The Weather Company Pty. Ltd. http://www.theweather.com.au -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of David Jones Sent: Friday, 8 February 2002 8:39 AM To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail) Subject: aus-wx: please no more! >Of course. The BoM openly admits it has no longrange system. But then >they all presume to have an opinion on global warming, the climate in >SIXTY YEARS >TIME!! And they can't even do it by their own admission past 7 days! >How dumb is that.. Ken Ring Can I suggest to all list members that we cease the discussion about Ken and his forecasts. This is fast descending into a slanging match, and personally I find many of the statements in his last post offensive. Forecasting the weather on the basis of the moon (ie tidal influences) is like predicting how good the surf is at Bells Beach on the basis of a tide chart. If you want to do it or use such forecasts then good luck to you! Regards, David Dr David Jones +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p410-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.148.156] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Fri, 08 Feb 2002 09:50:57 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Storms for NE NSW Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, With a few interruptions, I forgot to include the NE part of NSW on the forecast as well. It seems the NE region of NSW will definitely take off with great wind shear as well. In fact the lower level wind shear is better there but I think storms will be more isolated which is good. The 700 lower-mid level moisture is drier but can result in more LP type thunderstorms. Should be a great day overall. I am terribly ill today. ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Lindsay Smail" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Big rainfall totals.. in Victoria. Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 10:18:54 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 24-hour totals to 9am for Geelong Region (combination of BoM and GWS Stations): Beeac 114, Aireys Inlet 93, Torquay 93, Barwon Heads 89, Mt Gellibrand 81, Anglesea 75, Paraparap 74, Modewarre 71, Cape Otway 68, Birregurra 62, Winchelsea 61, Marshall 60, Boonah 59, Inverleigh 50, Weeaproinah 48, Mt Cowley 43, Mt Duneed (Geelong AWS) 42, St Albans Park 40, Shelford 39, Hamlyn Heights 36, Bannockburn 35, Manifold Heights 35, Forrest 34, West Barwon Dam 34, Sheoaks 33, Mt Sabine 29, Wooloomanata 26, Avalon 23, Lara 22. Latest 30-year February mean for Geelong is 34.3 mm. Lindsay Smail. -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of David Jones Sent: Friday, 8 February 2002 8:02 AM To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail) Subject: aus-wx: Big rainfall totals.. in Victoria. Of course it is still too early for the 9am reports, but there has been some impressive rainfall totals from last nights storms and this mornings rainband through central Victoria (focused on the Otways region). High fall so far is 93mm at Aireys Inlet, but one could reasonably expect somewhere to have cracked the 100.. Also note that the heavy rain has penetrated significantly inland (Lookout Hill getting 64mm). All up, probably not enough rain to produce much in the way of flooding. The situation over Victoria today is quite tricky, as the upper low drifts NE towards the Sydney region. There will certainly be some further significant rain, but the exact placement will depend on the orientation of the cloud and rainbands around the surface trough and upper low. Melbourne currently, sits between heavy bands to the south, east and west! but when the low level flow becomes more southerly could become favoured for some heavy rain - the situation is not unlike that which produced the very heavy rainfall March last year. Also, I notice that the models are starting to get a little more bullish about the follow-up cold front on Sunday, with thickness values now being progged to drop to around 540-548 over southern Victoria late Sunday. At the colder end we could see some heavy rain and hail showers develop and possibly some cold air thunderies (given the "warmth" of bass strait and the bays), and even some snow flurries around the peaks of Lake Mt and Baw Baw... Happy WX watching. David. Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ --- Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: Fw: aus-wx: TC Chris - Cat 5! Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 05:28:29 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com TC Chris just about to cross the coast SW of Wallal Downs - the eye is starting to bow as it approaches the coast & it's almost sliding along....... Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- ----- Original Message ----- From: "Carl Smith" To: Sent: Wednesday, February 06, 2002 1:06 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Chris - Cat 5! > Hi All. > > TC Chris now Cat 5, 915 hPa, with max gusts 290 km/hr! > > Looks like Wallal is going to cop it. > > BoM TCA#27 pasted below. > > Regards, > Carl. > > IDW24100 > BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE > > Radio Stations: please sound the emergency warning signal before broadcasting > the following message. > > PRIORITY > > TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27 > Issued at 10:00 pm WST on Tuesday, 5 February 2002 > BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH > > A WARNING is current for a category 5 cyclone for the coastal areas between > Bidyadanga and Port Hedland and inland to Nullagine and Telfer. > > At 10pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Chris was located > 70 kilometres north north west of Wallal and > 225 kilometres east north east of Port Hedland and was > moving south at 10 kilometres per hour. > The cyclone is expected to cross the coast near Wallal in the early hours of > Wednesday morning. > > Very destructive winds with gusts to 290 kilometres per hour are expected near > the cyclone centre as it crosses the coast. Gales with gusts to 125 kilometres > per hour are expected in coastal communities between Bidyadanga and Port > Hedland > tonight, and extend further inland to Marble Bar and Telfer on Wednesday > morning. Tides between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga are likely to rise > significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and dangerous > flooding. Very heavy rain is expected to lead to flooding in the west Kimberley > and eastern Pilbara. > > Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Chris at 10pm WST. > Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of Latitude 19.2 South > Longitude 120.4 East. > Recent movement : South at 10 kilometres per hour. > Central Pressure : 915 hPa. > Maximum wind gusts : 290 kilometres per hour near the centre. > Severity category : 5. > > The SES advises of the following community alerts: > RED ALERT: Sandfire, Wallal, Pardoo, De Grey, Mandora, Warralong, Marble Bar. > YELLOW ALERT: Port Hedland,South Hedland,Yandeyarra. > BLUE ALERT: Nullagine, Telfer > The next warning will be issued at 11:00pm WST.Cyclone advices and State > Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by > dialling 1300 659 210 > > > A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: > http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone > > ~~~~~~~~~~ > Carl Smith. > Gold Coast. > Queensland. > Australia. > > Email: carls at qldnet.com.au > Current Tropical Cyclone information : > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Glen O'Riley" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storms for NE NSW Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 11:10:47 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com how far north Jimmy? Taree north or further? --------------------- Glen O'Riley Computer Technician goriley at tsn.cc www.linx.iwarp.com -------------------- Storm Chaser Firefighter SES Volunteer CB Radio Monitor ------------------- -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jimmy Deguara Sent: Friday, 8 February 2002 9:51 AM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Storms for NE NSW Hi all, With a few interruptions, I forgot to include the NE part of NSW on the forecast as well. It seems the NE region of NSW will definitely take off with great wind shear as well. In fact the lower level wind shear is better there but I think storms will be more isolated which is good. The 700 lower-mid level moisture is drier but can result in more LP type thunderstorms. Should be a great day overall. I am terribly ill today. ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\Glen Patrick O'Riley4.vcf" From: "Mark Hardy" To: Subject: aus-wx: New obs page on Weatherzone Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 11:36:50 +1100 Organization: The Weather Company X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Just to let you know we have revamped the obs page on Weatherzone. You can sort the page by the various column headings and click on a station to get a history for that location. Have a play at, http://www.weatherzone.com.au/observations/observations.jsp Mark Hardy The Weather Company Pty. Ltd. http://www.theweather.com.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p410-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.148.156] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Fri, 08 Feb 2002 11:34:50 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storms for NE NSW Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Glen and all, I would probably suspect further N of Taree for the NE NSW stuff but the eastern Hunter and regions south will probably be the go. But I am talking about the pre frontal cells. Not all areas will cop these anyway. The band that follows will affect the areas south of you - you might get the second band. This is all educated guess work too. We are still in low cloud even at 11:33am daylight saving time. Starting to break through now!!!! The next few hours will be crucial - hopefully the wind picks up and creates a convergence zone. Jimmy Deguara At 11:10 AM 8/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >how far north Jimmy? Taree north or further? > >--------------------- > >Glen O'Riley >Computer Technician >goriley at tsn.cc >www.linx.iwarp.com > >-------------------- > >Storm Chaser >Firefighter >SES Volunteer >CB Radio Monitor > >------------------- > >-----Original Message----- >From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com >[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jimmy Deguara >Sent: Friday, 8 February 2002 9:51 AM >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: aus-wx: Storms for NE NSW > > >Hi all, > >With a few interruptions, I forgot to include the NE part of NSW on the >forecast as well. It seems the NE region of NSW will definitely take off >with great wind shear as well. In fact the lower level wind shear is better >there but I think storms will be more isolated which is good. The 700 >lower-mid level moisture is drier but can result in more LP type >thunderstorms. Should be a great day overall. > >I am terribly ill today. > >----------------------------------------- >Jimmy Deguara >Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > >from >Schofields, Sydney >NSW Australia > >e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > >Web Page with Michael Bath > >Australian Severe Weather Home Page >http://www.australiasevereweather.com > >President of the Australian Severe Weather Association >http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "macdonald" To: Subject: aus-wx: WEBPAGE FOR GUYRA & HOME (TALLAI) Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 10:49:00 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All
 
I have lately created a webpage for Guyra and Tallai. I think everyone knows where Guyra is.. if not it is situated in the Northern Tablelands (New England) of northern NSW at an elevation of 1325metres. Since I don't live at Guyra the records won't be up to date....once a month or two.. I'll update. As for Tallai, where I live. Tallai is a rural suburb of the Gold Coast. The mountains are about 20mins drive away of the beach is about 10-15mins drive away. I'll update the Tallai day every day.. so you can check out my temps for the day... and browse my older records.
 
cheers
Sam
From: "macdonald" To: Subject: aus-wx: OPPS THE WEB ADDRESS GUYRA & TALLAI WEATHER PAGE Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 11:21:23 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
ME again,
 
 
cheers
Sam
From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 12:40:59 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 08/02/2002 12:40:59 PM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com IDN28400 TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST NSW Severe Thunderstorm Advice BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE Issued at 1230 on Friday the 8th of February 2002 This Advice cancels and replaces the earlier Advice issued at 10:32 am. The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Advice for people in the following weather forecast districts: Sydney Metropolitan Hunter Central Tablelands Illawarra Southern Tablelands, east of a line Yass to Cooma South Coast. This advice is valid until 4pm and it should not be used after this time. Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of these are expected to be severe, bringing large hailstones, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall. ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "macdonald" To: Subject: aus-wx: GUYRA & TALLAI WEATHER LINK Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 12:00:48 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Dave & All
 
Thanks Dave for informing me.. here is the correct link...I left out the i in Geocities
 
 
cheers
Sam
From: "Chas & Helen Osborn" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: New obs page on Weatherzone Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 13:31:17 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Mark This is great, up to now we have not had history for location in Tasmania from Bom. Thanks Chas Strahan Tasmania ----- Original Message ----- From: "Mark Hardy" To: Sent: Friday, February 08, 2002 11:36 AM Subject: aus-wx: New obs page on Weatherzone > Just to let you know we have revamped the obs page on Weatherzone. You > can sort the page by the various column headings and click on a station > to get a history for that location. Have a play at, > http://www.weatherzone.com.au/observations/observations.jsp > > Mark Hardy > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd. > http://www.theweather.com.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [202.7.15.31] From: "Daniel Lester" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: Big rainfall totals.. in Victoria. Date: Fri, 08 Feb 2002 13:18:28 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 08 Feb 2002 02:18:28.0475 (UTC) FILETIME=[E553ACB0:01C1B046] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com North East Tasmania also picked up massive totals St Marys 106 mm Cullenswood 92 mm Gray 83 mm etc But not much elsewhere, Flood watch on North East river basins. >From: "Lindsay Smail" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: >Subject: RE: aus-wx: Big rainfall totals.. in Victoria. >Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 10:18:54 +1100 > >24-hour totals to 9am for Geelong Region (combination of BoM and GWS >Stations): >Beeac 114, Aireys Inlet 93, Torquay 93, Barwon Heads 89, Mt Gellibrand 81, >Anglesea 75, Paraparap 74, Modewarre 71, Cape Otway 68, Birregurra 62, >Winchelsea 61, Marshall 60, Boonah 59, Inverleigh 50, Weeaproinah 48, Mt >Cowley 43, Mt Duneed (Geelong AWS) 42, St Albans Park 40, Shelford 39, >Hamlyn Heights 36, Bannockburn 35, Manifold Heights 35, Forrest 34, West >Barwon Dam 34, Sheoaks 33, Mt Sabine 29, Wooloomanata 26, Avalon 23, Lara >22. Latest 30-year February mean for Geelong is 34.3 mm. Lindsay Smail. > >-----Original Message----- >From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com >[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of David Jones >Sent: Friday, 8 February 2002 8:02 AM >To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail) >Subject: aus-wx: Big rainfall totals.. in Victoria. > > >Of course it is still too early for the 9am reports, but there has been >some >impressive rainfall totals from last nights >storms and this mornings rainband through central Victoria (focused on the >Otways region). High fall so far is 93mm at Aireys Inlet, but one could >reasonably expect somewhere to have cracked the 100.. Also note that the >heavy rain has penetrated significantly inland (Lookout Hill getting 64mm). >All up, probably not enough rain to produce much in the way of flooding. > >The situation over Victoria today is quite tricky, as the upper low drifts >NE towards the Sydney region. There will certainly be some further >significant rain, but the exact placement will depend on the orientation of >the cloud and rainbands around the surface trough and upper low. Melbourne >currently, sits between heavy bands to the south, east and west! but when >the >low level flow becomes more southerly could become favoured for some heavy >rain - the situation is not unlike that which produced the very heavy >rainfall March last year. > >Also, I notice that the models are starting to get a little more bullish >about the follow-up cold front on Sunday, with >thickness values now being progged to drop to around 540-548 over southern >Victoria late Sunday. At the colder end we could see some heavy rain and >hail showers develop and possibly some cold air thunderies (given the >"warmth" of bass strait and the bays), and even some snow flurries around >the peaks of Lake Mt and Baw Baw... > >Happy WX watching. > >David. > > >Dr David Jones > >Climate Analysis Section >National Climate Centre >Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 >GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 >Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 >email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ >--- >Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. >Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). >Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 > >--- >Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. >Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). >Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Big rainfall totals.. in Victoria. Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 11:07:11 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 08 Feb 2002 02:21:46.0292 (UTC) FILETIME=[5B3C2740:01C1B047] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, Lismore in Vic looks to have topped the state with 123mm to 9am. (its located about 35km NNE of Camperdown). After a great chase yesterday (captures to follow soon), I was woken just after 3am by the local loghtning detector (a neighbors dog) and sure enough a nice squall line had developed on the inner-most band of the low. This produced some nice heavy rain and infrequent lightning (which I got on video and captures will be up soon). I wentback to bed in the end at about 5am after watching the band move off to the SE, S and SW. The SW portion was infrequently lightning active as it cruised over the surf coast. I'll call my grandparents today to find out how much rain/thunder they had overnight - they are at Eastern View - a small coastal settlement about 4km SW of Airey's Inlet. Good luck to all the chasers heading out today. Regards, Andrew McDonald ----- Original Message ----- From: Lindsay Smail To: Sent: Friday, February 08, 2002 10:18 AM Subject: RE: aus-wx: Big rainfall totals.. in Victoria. > 24-hour totals to 9am for Geelong Region (combination of BoM and GWS > Stations): > Beeac 114, Aireys Inlet 93, Torquay 93, Barwon Heads 89, Mt Gellibrand 81, > Anglesea 75, Paraparap 74, Modewarre 71, Cape Otway 68, Birregurra 62, > Winchelsea 61, Marshall 60, Boonah 59, Inverleigh 50, Weeaproinah 48, Mt > Cowley 43, Mt Duneed (Geelong AWS) 42, St Albans Park 40, Shelford 39, > Hamlyn Heights 36, Bannockburn 35, Manifold Heights 35, Forrest 34, West > Barwon Dam 34, Sheoaks 33, Mt Sabine 29, Wooloomanata 26, Avalon 23, Lara > 22. Latest 30-year February mean for Geelong is 34.3 mm. Lindsay Smail. > > -----Original Message----- > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of David Jones > Sent: Friday, 8 February 2002 8:02 AM > To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail) > Subject: aus-wx: Big rainfall totals.. in Victoria. > > > Of course it is still too early for the 9am reports, but there has been some > impressive rainfall totals from last nights > storms and this mornings rainband through central Victoria (focused on the > Otways region). High fall so far is 93mm at Aireys Inlet, but one could > reasonably expect somewhere to have cracked the 100.. Also note that the > heavy rain has penetrated significantly inland (Lookout Hill getting 64mm). > All up, probably not enough rain to produce much in the way of flooding. > > The situation over Victoria today is quite tricky, as the upper low drifts > NE towards the Sydney region. There will certainly be some further > significant rain, but the exact placement will depend on the orientation of > the cloud and rainbands around the surface trough and upper low. Melbourne > currently, sits between heavy bands to the south, east and west! but when > the > low level flow becomes more southerly could become favoured for some heavy > rain - the situation is not unlike that which produced the very heavy > rainfall March last year. > > Also, I notice that the models are starting to get a little more bullish > about the follow-up cold front on Sunday, with > thickness values now being progged to drop to around 540-548 over southern > Victoria late Sunday. At the colder end we could see some heavy rain and > hail showers develop and possibly some cold air thunderies (given the > "warmth" of bass strait and the bays), and even some snow flurries around > the peaks of Lake Mt and Baw Baw... > > Happy WX watching. > > David. > > > Dr David Jones > > Climate Analysis Section > National Climate Centre > Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 > GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 > Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 > email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > --- > Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). > Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 > > --- > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). > Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Glen O'Riley" To: "Weather List Aussie" Subject: aus-wx: Storms Building At Taree Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 13:53:51 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com There is a nice cell building itself over our paddock at the current moment. You can actually see the height rising. Shall be interesting. --------------------- Glen O'Riley Computer Technician goriley at tsn.cc www.linx.iwarp.com -------------------- Storm Chaser Firefighter SES Volunteer CB Radio Monitor ------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\Glen Patrick O'Riley5.vcf" From: "Godsman, Andrew AG" To: "'aussie weather (new)'" Subject: aus-wx: It's all about to Happen - Wollongong Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 13:56:21 +1100 X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: <75F9F329329FD311820000805F15FA9604CC15C0 at itwol-msg01.itwol.bhp.com.au> X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi everyone, It's our turn. Massive display of mammatus coming up from south of Wollongong at present. haven't had a look behind the buildings at the stage, going now, but moving north very quickly. Heads up everyone in Sydney as well. It's looking BIG!!!! Cheers Andrew Godsman EOM NOTICE - This message and any attached files may contain information that is confidential and/or subject of legal privilege intended only for use by the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient or the person responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, be advised that you have received this message in error and that any dissemination, copying or use of this message or attachment is strictly forbidden, as is the disclosure of the information therein. If you have received this message in error please notify the sender immediately and delete the message. Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\aus-wx It's all about to Happe" From: "Godsman, Andrew AG" To: "'aussie weather (new)'" Subject: aus-wx: Hail now Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 14:29:41 +1100 X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: <75F9F329329FD311820000805F15FA9604CC15C2 at itwol-msg01.itwol.bhp.com.au> X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com A sustained hail fall with some mushy stones up to 3cm across. Still going after almost 10 minutes, and we're nowhere near the main storm base. Look out Sydney, hailstorm time again. Andrew Godsman EOM NOTICE - This message and any attached files may contain information that is confidential and/or subject of legal privilege intended only for use by the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient or the person responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, be advised that you have received this message in error and that any dissemination, copying or use of this message or attachment is strictly forbidden, as is the disclosure of the information therein. If you have received this message in error please notify the sender immediately and delete the message. Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\aus-wx Hail now" From: "Godsman, Andrew AG" To: "'aussie weather (new)'" Subject: aus-wx: It is happening - NSW Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 14:17:40 +1100 X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: <75F9F329329FD311820000805F15FA9604CC15C1 at itwol-msg01.itwol.bhp.com.au> X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi again, After a quick check and being busted by one of the bosses, there is a typical very strong (severe??) storm riding up just behind the Illawarra escarpment heading for SE parts of Sydney. It looks mean and the towers are going up very quickly to the N of the maion updraft. A massive thick and mammatusy anvil is spreading fast to the E. Also, there is another huge storm up north of Sydney, possibly Hunter area which I took a snap of, testing the digital zoom limits of the camera. Thunder rumbling here now, going to be an interesting afternoon. Good luck everybody, looks like we'll have some severe features to show the Vics by the end of the day. Cheers Andrew Godsman EOM NOTICE - This message and any attached files may contain information that is confidential and/or subject of legal privilege intended only for use by the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient or the person responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, be advised that you have received this message in error and that any dissemination, copying or use of this message or attachment is strictly forbidden, as is the disclosure of the information therein. If you have received this message in error please notify the sender immediately and delete the message. Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\aus-wx It is happening - NSW" From: Shaun Cronin X-Authentication-Warning: iggy.triode.net.au: mats set sender to sonnyboy at triode.net.au using -f Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 15:42:11 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hail now User-Agent: Internet Messaging Program (IMP) 4.0-cvs X-Originating-IP: 210.9.182.115 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Quoting "Godsman, Andrew AG" : > A sustained hail fall with some mushy stones up to 3cm across. Still going > after almost 10 minutes, and we're nowhere near the main storm base. Look out > Sydney, hailstorm time again. I'll delurk and say that in Castle Hill, most of my office has moved their cars undercover as the there is a very green tinge to the clouds. Someone just said it is hailing in Blacktown. I wish I didn't have to work. The clouds are quite impressive. Shaun ------------------------------------------------- This mail sent through IMP: http://horde.org/imp/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: thick skin! Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 15:33:18 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >David, I would not take his comments personally. Jimmie I have pretty thick skin. RE the offensive, what I was getting at is the fact that the failure of forecasts, can and has frequently led to the loss of human life and misery. To claim that somehow climate and weather forecasts could have been better (thereby preventing loss of life and property) if only it weren't for the closed-mindedness of meteorologists, is offensive, and reflects badly on anybody who has ever professionally forecasted. Despite only being in meteorology for a few years, I gave up arguing against astronomically derived forecasts a while ago. These have been around since ancient Egypt and will probably be around for 1000s of years to come. Cheers, DJ Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Dean McWhinney" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hail now Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 15:56:57 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Here in petersham LOVELY green tinge and then the rain stoped and i thought beuaty hail BUT nooooo just more rain :( COMEON BIG HAIL STORM!!!!! ----- Original Message ----- From: "Shaun Cronin" To: Sent: Friday, February 08, 2002 3:42 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hail now > Quoting "Godsman, Andrew AG" : > > > A sustained hail fall with some mushy stones up to 3cm across. Still going > > after almost 10 minutes, and we're nowhere near the main storm base. Look out > > Sydney, hailstorm time again. > > I'll delurk and say that in Castle Hill, most of my office has moved their cars > undercover as the there is a very green tinge to the clouds. > > Someone just said it is hailing in Blacktown. I wish I didn't have to work. The > clouds are quite impressive. > > Shaun > > > > ------------------------------------------------- > This mail sent through IMP: http://horde.org/imp/ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Shaun Cronin X-Authentication-Warning: iggy.triode.net.au: mats set sender to sonnyboy at triode.net.au using -f Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 16:17:52 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hail now User-Agent: Internet Messaging Program (IMP) 4.0-cvs X-Originating-IP: 210.9.182.115 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Quoting Shaun Cronin : > I'll delurk and say that in Castle Hill, most of my office has moved their > cars > undercover as the there is a very green tinge to the clouds. Nothing ended up happening as the storm missed Castle Hill entirely. However, the radar shows it heading straight up Parramatta River to the city. Shaun ------------------------------------------------- This mail sent through IMP: http://horde.org/imp/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Feb 2002 18:42:21 +1300 From: Gregg Ward User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.0; en-US; rv:0.9.4) Gecko/20011019 Netscape6/6.2 X-Accept-Language: en-us To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hail now Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Shaun, They showed some hail up to golf ball size at the SCG, during the Channel 9 coverage of the NZ v SA Cricket final. Saw some pretty impressive looking Cbs prior to the rain and hail, at the very start of the game. Gregg Ward Shaun Cronin wrote: > Quoting Shaun Cronin : > > >>I'll delurk and say that in Castle Hill, most of my office has moved their >>cars >>undercover as the there is a very green tinge to the clouds. >> > > Nothing ended up happening as the storm missed Castle Hill entirely. However, > the radar shows it heading straight up Parramatta River to the city. > > Shaun > > ------------------------------------------------- > This mail sent through IMP: http://horde.org/imp/ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > -- Gregg Ward Palmerston North New Zealand E-mail: gregg.ward at xtra.co.nz ICQ: 114869387 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.44.50.66] From: "Leslie Baxter" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic storm chase Date: Fri, 08 Feb 2002 05:36:33 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 08 Feb 2002 05:36:33.0634 (UTC) FILETIME=[916F0420:01C1B062] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey all yeah Ballarat did get swamped, 55mm, got some awesome pics of the storm/s, nice cloud rotation at the base and for a second the funnel touched down hmmm not far from where I was just west of ballarat, very very windy! Will try and get pics on the web when I find the time Cheers Les Baxter Ballarat Weather >From: "Liam Domanski" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: aus-wx: Vic storm chase >Date: Thu, 07 Feb 2002 21:41:10 +1100 > >Hi weather peoples. > >Macca and I had a great chase to the west of Melb today. > >Saw a small funnel or 2, and some AWESOME storms!!!! Possibly a HP >Supercell with very nice GREEN clouds out near Ballarat. > >Converged with Nick near Ballan, and chased back to Melb. > >Some NICE pics and video footage coming your way from the 3 of us. > >ROCK ON VICTORIA!!!! > >Liam > >_________________________________________________________________ >Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >message. >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Circulation on Melb radar Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 08:51:24 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com re Simons comments, I think with the upper low over Vic and plently of low level moisture feedin sounds like an unstable atmosphere .Once this low level cloud and fog burns off surface heating should be enouigh to set off convection,first on the high country , then lower down. should be some heavy falls in the storms but I,m not convinced they will be severe at this stage-not hot enough at the surface- expected max only low 20's.Some activity early this morning -about 2.20 but only 1 mm here.(Gilmore).Keep camera around. Gavin SSWW Canberra ----- Original Message ----- From: "Matthew Smith" To: Sent: Friday, February 08, 2002 7:01 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Circulation on Melb radar > thoughts on today? it looks good for storms all over east NSW, not just south! > Small upper low looks nice on radar just west of Melb! > > Off to work till 4pm then a chase =) Good luck to those NSW people that head > out, should be a ripper day, take your cameras to work. > > Matt Smith > > Simon Angell wrote: > > > Fantastic circulation on Melb radar thanks to a tight upper level Low(as > > said by Mark Hardy, aka gustfront on WZ forum)...He also said this will make > > things interesting in Southern NSW this afternoon, Just want other Peoples > > thoughts on Southern NSW/ACT prospects for today, > > > > ill be back on around 2pm, then i will head off to my lookout :) > > > > Simon Angell > > Canberra ACT > > ICQ# 128920513 > > www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001/ > > and the site in development > > www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: aus-wx: 1030 hrs dst report on radar line of activity to west moving towards us Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 09:41:51 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Simon and all,
Wagga Radar shows two lines of activity moving towards us .Should be interesting to see what impact the Ranges have on their development .Low Stratus with base down to 1,000 feet is well below the summits of the Brindabellas so I  don't think we will see the Cb unless the cloud breaks .We have 18 deg. and a N.W. at 10 -15 km/hr at present.DP is very high 16 at present.
Still don't think we will see severe activity but maybe depends on the movt of the upper low .Saw where they think it might head northeast ie. over us.If it were around us  later this PM  it could be interesting?
I will be in Fyshwick from 2.30 until late thsi afternoon. A bit paronoid as I fear for my AWS!
Will be on line to night.
Regards
Gavin O'Brien
SSWW Canberra
From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Vic storm chase Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 17:06:18 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Les, A tornado????? What did the BoM say when you reported it? If you want to email me images I'll put them up on MSC for you. Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- Hey all yeah Ballarat did get swamped, 55mm, got some awesome pics of the storm/s, nice cloud rotation at the base and for a second the funnel touched down hmmm not far from where I was just west of ballarat, very very windy! Will try and get pics on the web when I find the time Cheers Les Baxter Ballarat Weather >From: "Liam Domanski" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: aus-wx: Vic storm chase >Date: Thu, 07 Feb 2002 21:41:10 +1100 > >Hi weather peoples. > >Macca and I had a great chase to the west of Melb today. > >Saw a small funnel or 2, and some AWESOME storms!!!! Possibly a HP >Supercell with very nice GREEN clouds out near Ballarat. > >Converged with Nick near Ballan, and chased back to Melb. > >Some NICE pics and video footage coming your way from the 3 of us. > >ROCK ON VICTORIA!!!! > >Liam > >_________________________________________________________________ >Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >message. >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.44.50.66] From: "Leslie Baxter" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: Vic storm chase Date: Fri, 08 Feb 2002 06:24:45 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 08 Feb 2002 06:24:46.0399 (UTC) FILETIME=[4DA7ECF0:01C1B069] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com didn't last very long, not even a minute yeah yet to file a report. Soon. Pics don't really show much. it was real freaky. Cheers Les Baxter Ballarat Weather >From: "Jane ONeill" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: >Subject: RE: aus-wx: Vic storm chase >Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 17:06:18 +1100 > >Les, > >A tornado????? What did the BoM say when you reported it? If you want to >email me images I'll put them up on MSC for you. > >Jane >--------------------------------------- >Jane ONeill - Melbourne >cadence at stormchasers.au.com > >Melbourne Storm Chasers >http://www.stormchasers.au.com > >ASWA - Victoria >http://www.severeweather.asn.au >--------------------------------------- > > >Hey all yeah Ballarat did get swamped, 55mm, got some awesome pics of the >storm/s, nice cloud rotation at the base and for a second the funnel >touched >down hmmm not far from where I was just west of ballarat, very very windy! > >Will try and get pics on the web when I find the time > >Cheers >Les Baxter >Ballarat Weather > > > > >From: "Liam Domanski" > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > >Subject: aus-wx: Vic storm chase > >Date: Thu, 07 Feb 2002 21:41:10 +1100 > > > >Hi weather peoples. > > > >Macca and I had a great chase to the west of Melb today. > > > >Saw a small funnel or 2, and some AWESOME storms!!!! Possibly a HP > >Supercell with very nice GREEN clouds out near Ballarat. > > > >Converged with Nick near Ballan, and chased back to Melb. > > > >Some NICE pics and video footage coming your way from the 3 of us. > > > >ROCK ON VICTORIA!!!! > > > >Liam > > > >_________________________________________________________________ > >Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com > > > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > >message. > >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > >_________________________________________________________________ >MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: >http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Steve Baynham" To: "weather" Subject: aus-wx: WEBCAM: Storm Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 16:23:00 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hey everyone,
a storm has developed in the last hour or so, 50k's south west of ipswich and towards the Gold Coast. My webcam shows it from the front on view and hopefully mike's webcam will get a shot of it from the southern end.
hope its a biggin!!!!
 
cyas
 
Steve Baynham
icq : 26863574
http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany
 
Brisbane Storm Chasers
http://www.bsch.au.com
 
Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
 

 
From: "Adam Mayo" To: "Australian Severe Weather" Subject: aus-wx: TWO WALL CLOUDS IN NORTHERN BEACHES Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 18:34:09 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Everyone,
 
Today was like winning the lottery.  We went out expecting to look at an ordinary storm and ended up seeing two wallclouds from two different storm systems. 
 
The first one appeared to be in the vicinity of Mona Vale - we were near Narrabeen Lake and also on Collaroy Plateau - at about 2.45 pm and according to people that we spoke to later there was 5 minutes of small but heavy hail in Avalon.
 
The second and larger wall cloud formed over the area between Narrabeen Headland and Long Reef at about 4.30 pm, right at the tail end of the large storm that looked to be over Sydney.
 
Judy Mayo 
From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: More Victorian storm images Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 19:37:41 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening all, Have added Liam Domanski's images from the 1st February to http://www.stormchasers.au.com/01_02_02.htm . Have added Clyve Herbert's funnel, Andrew McDonald's, & Chris & Tiff Daely's images from yesterday to http://www.stormchasers.au.com/07_02_02.htm . More to come.... Enjoy!! -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms for NE NSW Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 22:09:57 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com What a day to be sick.We missed the action here, the storm line skipped Canberra but a very impressive line of Cb visible to the east most of the afternoon looked very severe from here. Gavin SSWW A.C.T. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jimmy Deguara" To: Sent: Friday, February 08, 2002 9:50 AM Subject: aus-wx: Storms for NE NSW > Hi all, > > With a few interruptions, I forgot to include the NE part of NSW on the > forecast as well. It seems the NE region of NSW will definitely take off > with great wind shear as well. In fact the lower level wind shear is better > there but I think storms will be more isolated which is good. The 700 > lower-mid level moisture is drier but can result in more LP type > thunderstorms. Should be a great day overall. > > I am terribly ill today. > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 09 Feb 2002 08:39:10 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: todays telegraph Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Todays telegraph has a photo on the front page of a storm near Narrabeen (sydney) from yesterday. Shows what looks to be an ouflow boundary with an anvil over the top of it. The storm seems to be out to sea. www.news.com.au, scroll down to "daily telegraph" and you can see a small image of the front page. To those that saw the storms yesterday, well the photo is nothing too special, but nice all the same :) Matt +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 09 Feb 2002 11:56:22 +1300 From: Gregg Ward User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.0; en-US; rv:0.9.8) Gecko/20020204 X-Accept-Language: en-us To: aussie-weather Subject: aus-wx: Picture of Tornado off of Otaki Coast (NZ) - Wednesday Morning Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com These were spotted about 60km southwest of Palmerston North (where I live), during a cold outbreak on Wednesday morning. Things are just starting to warm up again today, with 21C forecast: http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1096474a1900,FF.html -- Gregg Ward E-mail: gregg.ward at xtra.co.nz ICQ: 114869387 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp2.ihug.co.nz: Host 203-173-215-14.ihug.net [203.173.215.14] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Picture of Tornado off of Otaki Coast (NZ) - Wednesday Morning Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 12:36:09 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Gregg, I observed a funnel cloud yesterday over the Waitemata but it was not as spectacular as the one in the newspaper report. The funnel cloud lasted a good 5mins. Weather was scattered showers with cu tops 15,000ft. Weather is fine in AK today. Weather could be interesting for North island next week with a low progged to settle over us. Regards Steven Williams Auckland ----- Original Message ----- From: "Gregg Ward" To: "aussie-weather" Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 11:56 AM Subject: aus-wx: Picture of Tornado off of Otaki Coast (NZ) - Wednesday Morning > These were spotted about 60km southwest of Palmerston North (where I > live), during a cold outbreak on Wednesday morning. Things are just > starting to warm up again today, with 21C forecast: > > http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1096474a1900,FF.html > > -- > > > > > Gregg Ward > E-mail: gregg.ward at xtra.co.nz > ICQ: 114869387 > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Sydney storm Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 16:50:52 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com http://www.news.com.au/newsphotos search term is 'hail' - there are 5 extra pics of this storm taken from the Northern Beaches. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Keith Barnett" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney storm Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 17:33:23 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
It's a pity they had to stamp their stupid 'newsphoto' all over the blown-up thumbnails..don't they think we know what it is...?
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 4:50 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney storm

http://www.news.com.au/newsphotos

search term is 'hail' - there are 5 extra pics of this storm taken from
the Northern Beaches.

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 09 Feb 2002 17:58:51 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: TWO WALL CLOUDS IN NORTHERN BEACHES Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com WOWZERS JUDY!!! Fantastic stuff, James Harris told me he could see a large wall cloud N of Sydney around 3pmish i think... did you get pix!?

Matt Smith

Adam Mayo wrote:

Hi Everyone, Today was like winning the lottery.  We went out expecting to look at an ordinary storm and ended up seeing two wallclouds from two different storm systems. The first one appeared to be in the vicinity of Mona Vale - we were near Narrabeen Lake and also on Collaroy Plateau - at about 2.45 pm and according to people that we spoke to later there was 5 minutes of small but heavy hail in Avalon. The second and larger wall cloud formed over the area between Narrabeen Headland and Long Reef at about 4.30 pm, right at the tail end of the large storm that looked to be over Sydney. Judy Mayo
From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: aus-wx: Possible TC for QLD COAST. Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 17:18:17 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I have been a little quiet latley but will be around more now.. Just a quick look at the satellite pics and the TD out in the coral sea, looks like it could be the first possible CYCLONE. The BOM has said nothing on it yet... But it might be worth keeping an eye out for it. --------Satellite Link-------- http://ludo.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/aushlast.gif --------Satellite Link-------- Regards Jason +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Adam Mayo" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TWO WALL CLOUDS IN NORTHERN BEACHES Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 18:23:57 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Matt and Everyone,
 
Yes we got plenty of photos of the 3pmish storm from its beginning to its end over the ocean, including the wall cloud. The whole thing happened very fast and came and went in about 45 minutes. Hopefully we will send them to Jimmy tomorrow and he is going to put them onto the ASWA site for me.  The second storm was also very photogenic and we will send photos of that as well. 
 
If you all saw the Telegraph this morning there are photos  in there of both wall clouds.
 
Judy.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 5:58 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TWO WALL CLOUDS IN NORTHERN BEACHES

WOWZERS JUDY!!! Fantastic stuff, James Harris told me he could see a large wall cloud N of Sydney around 3pmish i think... did you get pix!?

Matt Smith

Adam Mayo wrote:

Hi Everyone, Today was like winning the lottery.  We went out expecting to look at an ordinary storm and ended up seeing two wallclouds from two different storm systems. The first one appeared to be in the vicinity of Mona Vale - we were near Narrabeen Lake and also on Collaroy Plateau - at about 2.45 pm and according to people that we spoke to later there was 5 minutes of small but heavy hail in Avalon. The second and larger wall cloud formed over the area between Narrabeen Headland and Long Reef at about 4.30 pm, right at the tail end of the large storm that looked to be over Sydney. Judy Mayo
X-Authentication-Warning: smtp2.ihug.co.nz: Host p37-nas6.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.216.37] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney storm Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 20:45:06 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com A very photogenic storm. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 6:50 PM Subject: aus-wx: Sydney storm > http://www.news.com.au/newsphotos > > search term is 'hail' - there are 5 extra pics of this storm taken from > the Northern Beaches. > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: aus-wx: Cyclonic Conditions Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 19:04:12 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Current obs from Darwin. Squally winds (up to 50 or 60 knots during gusts) and intermittant torrential rain has seen: - Low lying areas inundated both by flooding and storm surge (i would guestimate that waves are about 3m in Darwin harbour atm) - Many tress down across city causing some power blackouts and other inconveniences - some respectable totals: Channel Island 46 Darwin Airport 60 Darwin River Dam 6 Howard Springs 41 Karama 68 Lambells Lagoon 18 Larrakeyah 71 Leanyer 69 McMinns Lagoon 36 Marlow Lagoon 41 Middle Point AWS 14 NT Wildlife Park 14 Parap 89 Thorak Cemetery 56 Wagait Beach 91 PS I am close to the Parap rain guage. :) And its forecast to continue some more. with a possible TC by MOnday..... Paul Mossman NT State ASWA Rep email: ntstorms at bigpond.com MSN: ntstorms at hotmail.com ICQ: 111144666 Mobile: 0438024372 ----- Original Message ----- From: "Steven Williams" To: Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 5:15 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney storm > A very photogenic storm. > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Jane ONeill" > To: "Aussie-wx" > Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 6:50 PM > Subject: aus-wx: Sydney storm > > > > http://www.news.com.au/newsphotos > > > > search term is 'hail' - there are 5 extra pics of this storm taken from > > the Northern Beaches. > > > > Jane > > > > -------------------------------- > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > > > ASWA - Victoria > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Extremes for Aus. Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 21:36:48 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 09 Feb 2002 10:38:49.0382 (UTC) FILETIME=[F5984C60:01C1B155] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all extremers.
Some interesting stuff over the Australian region at the moment, significant activity over the top end as the ITCZ starts to work on all cylinders, the area around the top end is starting to show enhanced low to mid convergence and there seems to reasonable upper divergence, although the bulk of activity is well over the land south of Darwin,the area around the Coral sea has ok low to mid convergence but lacks upper divergence at the moment, all of this tropical area of Aus is primed with sea temps 29 to 31c. At the opposite end of the scale there is a rather interesting cold pool south of Mt Gambier and west of Tasmania, as this system works northward tonight it will react to progressively warmer sea temps 17 to 19c near the Victorian coast this cold pool area shows some positive vorticity between 500 and 300hpa. Best wishes Clyve Herbert.
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Wierd stuff out western Vic!. Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 21:49:08 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 09 Feb 2002 10:51:08.0763 (UTC) FILETIME=[AE4CE2B0:01C1B157] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all record watchers and Blair.
News of what I would consider to be an extraordinary rain event over parts of western Victoria and some parts of the west central district are filtering in from farm settlements between Cressy and Colac,farmers checking their gauges on Friday morning have found them full and overflowing and unable to record more than the 250mm that their gauges can hold, most of this rain fell between 0300 and 0900 hrs (not confirmed) estimates of totals between 200 and 300mm have been reported in a band extending south from Cressy to near Colac.These areas have annual means of between 545mm and 650mm,and means for the month of February are about 35mm!, this would have to be pretty close to some sought of record with totals of between 600 and 800% of the monthly ave coming down in one night!!, in some cases an amount of 300mm is close to 60% of the yearly mean. Observation of the sat pic showed an intense but narrow wrap around band associated with rapid cyclogenisis that moved over this region between 0300 and 1000hrs on Friday. regards Clyve H.
 
X-Originating-IP: [202.7.15.25] From: "Daniel Lester" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Extremes for Aus. Date: Sat, 09 Feb 2002 22:03:12 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 09 Feb 2002 11:03:13.0139 (UTC) FILETIME=[5E0FE430:01C1B159] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com All I know is it's darn cold in Hobart, getting close to 0 on Mount Wellington. Winds are strong to gale force at times and the rain is coming in horizontal when it's raining. Snow? I reckon. >From: "Clyve Herbert" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: >Subject: aus-wx: Extremes for Aus. >Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 21:36:48 +1100 > >Hi all extremers. >Some interesting stuff over the Australian region at the moment, >significant activity over the top end as the ITCZ starts to work on all >cylinders, the area around the top end is starting to show enhanced low to >mid convergence and there seems to reasonable upper divergence, although >the bulk of activity is well over the land south of Darwin,the area around >the Coral sea has ok low to mid convergence but lacks upper divergence at >the moment, all of this tropical area of Aus is primed with sea temps 29 to >31c. At the opposite end of the scale there is a rather interesting cold >pool south of Mt Gambier and west of Tasmania, as this system works >northward tonight it will react to progressively warmer sea temps 17 to 19c >near the Victorian coast this cold pool area shows some positive vorticity >between 500 and 300hpa. Best wishes Clyve Herbert. _________________________________________________________________ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [202.7.15.25] From: "Daniel Lester" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Wierd stuff out western Vic!. Date: Sat, 09 Feb 2002 22:09:33 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 09 Feb 2002 11:09:33.0835 (UTC) FILETIME=[40F97DB0:01C1B15A] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Extraordinary, wish we would cop that sort of lashing. But nothing exciting ever seems to happen in your own background. >From: "Clyve Herbert" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: >Subject: aus-wx: Wierd stuff out western Vic!. >Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 21:49:08 +1100 > >Hi all record watchers and Blair. >News of what I would consider to be an extraordinary rain event over parts >of western Victoria and some parts of the west central district are >filtering in from farm settlements between Cressy and Colac,farmers >checking their gauges on Friday morning have found them full and >overflowing and unable to record more than the 250mm that their gauges can >hold, most of this rain fell between 0300 and 0900 hrs (not confirmed) >estimates of totals between 200 and 300mm have been reported in a band >extending south from Cressy to near Colac.These areas have annual means of >between 545mm and 650mm,and means for the month of February are about >35mm!, this would have to be pretty close to some sought of record with >totals of between 600 and 800% of the monthly ave coming down in one >night!!, in some cases an amount of 300mm is close to 60% of the yearly >mean. Observation of the sat pic showed an intense but narrow wrap around >band associated with rapid cyclogenisis that moved over this region between >0300 and 1000hrs on Friday. regards Clyve H. > _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Tina Jones" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Extremes for Aus. Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 22:10:33 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Snowies!!! ----- Original Message ----- From: "Daniel Lester" To: Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 10:03 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Extremes for Aus. > > All I know is it's darn cold in Hobart, getting close to 0 on Mount > Wellington. Winds are strong to gale force at times and the rain is coming > in horizontal when it's raining. Snow? I reckon. > > >From: "Clyve Herbert" > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > >To: > >Subject: aus-wx: Extremes for Aus. > >Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 21:36:48 +1100 > > > >Hi all extremers. > >Some interesting stuff over the Australian region at the moment, > >significant activity over the top end as the ITCZ starts to work on all > >cylinders, the area around the top end is starting to show enhanced low to > >mid convergence and there seems to reasonable upper divergence, although > >the bulk of activity is well over the land south of Darwin,the area around > >the Coral sea has ok low to mid convergence but lacks upper divergence at > >the moment, all of this tropical area of Aus is primed with sea temps 29 to > >31c. At the opposite end of the scale there is a rather interesting cold > >pool south of Mt Gambier and west of Tasmania, as this system works > >northward tonight it will react to progressively warmer sea temps 17 to 19c > >near the Victorian coast this cold pool area shows some positive vorticity > >between 500 and 300hpa. Best wishes Clyve Herbert. > > > > > _________________________________________________________________ > MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: > http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [202.7.15.25] From: "Daniel Lester" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Extremes for Aus. Date: Sat, 09 Feb 2002 23:04:48 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 09 Feb 2002 12:04:48.0639 (UTC) FILETIME=[F8C070F0:01C1B161] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Right...Someone knows my alter ego. But I don't know theres...Tina Jones reveal yourself. By the way still bleeding cold. Wheres the fire lighters. >From: "Tina Jones" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Extremes for Aus. >Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 22:10:33 +1100 > >Hi Snowies!!! >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Daniel Lester" >To: >Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 10:03 PM >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Extremes for Aus. > > > > > > All I know is it's darn cold in Hobart, getting close to 0 on Mount > > Wellington. Winds are strong to gale force at times and the rain is >coming > > in horizontal when it's raining. Snow? I reckon. > > > > >From: "Clyve Herbert" > > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > >To: > > >Subject: aus-wx: Extremes for Aus. > > >Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 21:36:48 +1100 > > > > > >Hi all extremers. > > >Some interesting stuff over the Australian region at the moment, > > >significant activity over the top end as the ITCZ starts to work on all > > >cylinders, the area around the top end is starting to show enhanced low >to > > >mid convergence and there seems to reasonable upper divergence, >although > > >the bulk of activity is well over the land south of Darwin,the area >around > > >the Coral sea has ok low to mid convergence but lacks upper divergence >at > > >the moment, all of this tropical area of Aus is primed with sea temps >29 >to > > >31c. At the opposite end of the scale there is a rather interesting >cold > > >pool south of Mt Gambier and west of Tasmania, as this system works > > >northward tonight it will react to progressively warmer sea temps 17 to >19c > > >near the Victorian coast this cold pool area shows some positive >vorticity > > >between 500 and 300hpa. Best wishes Clyve Herbert. > > > > > > > > > > _________________________________________________________________ > > MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: > > http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of >your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- _________________________________________________________________ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 09 Feb 2002 23:17:17 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Radar request Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Does anyone have radar images for February 8, for Williamtown and Sydney radar, between 1 and 8pm. If so could you let me know and ill grab them off you. Thanks in advance Matthew Smith http://www.sydneystormchasers.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Glen O'Riley" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Radar request Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2002 00:15:25 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I should have, my radar runs most of the day on Willie 512k loop if you are interested. --------------------- Glen O'Riley Computer Technician goriley at tsn.cc www.linx.iwarp.com -------------------- Storm Chaser Firefighter SES Volunteer CB Radio Monitor ------------------- -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Matthew Smith Sent: Saturday, 9 February 2002 11:17 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Radar request Does anyone have radar images for February 8, for Williamtown and Sydney radar, between 1 and 8pm. If so could you let me know and ill grab them off you. Thanks in advance Matthew Smith http://www.sydneystormchasers.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\Glen Patrick O'Riley.vcf" X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2002 01:10:32 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: thick skin! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The following material contains a very simple example of a Lunar long range forecast. It is not an official forecast prepared by a competent meteorologist, and it was not prepared by a professional long-range forecaster either, and it may also turn out to be quite inaccurate. If you are offended by this, please do not read any further. Hi David and All. >>David, I would not take his comments personally. > >Jimmie I have pretty thick skin. RE the offensive, what I was getting at is >the fact that the failure of forecasts, can and has frequently led to the >loss of human life and misery. To claim that somehow climate and weather >forecasts could have been better (thereby preventing loss of life and >property) if only it weren't for the closed-mindedness of meteorologists, is >offensive, and reflects badly on anybody who has ever professionally >forecasted. I agree that failed forecasts do indeed put lives at risk, especially when looking at short range forecasting of the type undertaken by the BoM, which of course does have a responsibility to ensure the best possible forecasts/warnings are going out to the public to minimise risks to lives and property, and I do congratulate and fully support the BoM on the usually high standard it maintains in this respect. However, I am having difficulty understanding how suggestions made by Ken that climate and weather forecasts could be improved by a more open-minded approach are offensive or that they reflect badly on all professional forecasters. Surely suggestions that there may be ways to improve things ought to be seen in the light of better future understanding through cooperation and research rather than as a source of offense, after all any offense taken at Kens somewhat abrasive way of saying this is just reinforcing his point - SOME meteorologists ARE too closed minded to consider his methods, and in trying to silence him ARE standing in the way of any potential benefits that may be gained if adequate research into his theories/methods was undertaken. Unless something has been adequately researched and was found to be unsound or harmful in the process, it should not be blocked by meteorologists posing as 'moral guardians' against 'corrupting beliefs' (i.e. that the Moon has an influence of the weather). If such LR forecasting methods have been found to be unsound or harmful through adequate research methods, then full details of such research including the methods used should put in the public domain so we can all learn something. Also, LR forecasters ARE professionals who have researched their field for many years and all those with whom I am in contact take a responsible approach both in their work and towards their clients to the best of my knowledge. When it comes to future planning, LR forecasts of rain or drought periods and times of likely stormy or freezing weather well into the future may actually save lives. Here is a hypothetical example as to how a LR forecast could be useful: If someone was wanting to plan ahead for a return yacht trip from Sydney to Hobart during the second half of Feb and the first half of March 2002, where could they go for weather advice? If they go to the BoM, they may get some climatic guideliness if they are lucky, however they would get nothing specific as to how to plan the timing of both legs of their trip in order to minimise exposure to periods of adverse/dangerous weather, and they would be told to come back a few days at most before they decide to leave. On the other hand, if they sought the services of a Lunar LR forecaster, they would get a forecast that would enable them to better plan the timing of their trip and any associated activities. In such a forecast, they might be told to avoid the period between Feb 11 - 17 due to the New Moon (Feb 12th at 7h 41m UTC) and Apogee (Feb 14th at 22h 23m UTC 406360 km), indicating a higher than normal likelihood of severe weather. An even stronger warning might be given for the period of Feb 25th - March 3rd, as both Full Moon (Feb 27th at 9h 17m UTC) and the closest Lunar Perigee of this year (Feb 27th at 20h 29m UTC 356897 km) occur in the middle of this period, indicating a far higher than usual likelihood of encountering severe weather, with the highest risk being Feb 28th to March 2nd, after the Full Moon. A warning could also be given for the period between Mar 11 - 17, due to the New Moon (Feb 14th at 2hr 02m UTC) and Apogee (Mar 14th at 1h 10m UTC 406704 km) indicating a higher than normal risk of encountering severe weather. This (inadequate) forecast leaves 2 windows of opportunity for the trip: Feb 18 - 27 and Mar 4 - 10, with the possibility of unsettled weather during the middle of both periods around the 1st and 3rd Quarter Moon phases. Note: this rather crude forecast leaves out two important additional factors - the Lunar Declination cycle, and the study of synoptic charts from carefully chosen dates based on previous Lunar cycles, which would be helpful in determining a more precise outlook for the timing and intensity of the various weather windows mentioned above and to make the better use of prevailing winds - this information would be taken into account by a Lunar LR forecaster before a forecast was delivered. Disclaimer: This is a hypothetical example only, although the Lunar phases and apsidals used are real - I AM NOT an accomplished LR forecaster and DO NOT say these inadequately researched off the top of my head type forecasts are necessarily accurate. If you really are planning such a trip, engage the services of an acomplished LR forecaster. Of course, our hypothetical yachtie would be well advised to check with the BoM during the last couple of days leading up to departure, and by radio during the trip to keep appraised of what is actually going on with the weather in real time, as no LR forecast even pretends to be perfect, however they are rather better than nothing in terms of planning ahead. To me it is obvious that these two branches of weather forecasting ought to be able to happily coexist, as they each fulfill much needed services that the other does not supply. > >Despite only being in meteorology for a few years, I gave up arguing against >astronomically derived forecasts a while ago. These have been around since >ancient Egypt and will probably be around for 1000s of years to come. The reason astronomically derived forecasts will be around for thousands of years to come is that they do have an uncanny knack of getting it right remarkably often. I have been watching the forecasts being made on the astro-weather list for quite a while now and seeing how weather events actually unfold, and whilst they do not always get it right, they do so frequently enough to get my attention. These stand out most of all when the official met forecasters in the areas concerned get it very wrong. When the astro-mets on the astro-weather list do get it wrong they have no qualms about saying so and hold discussions to see what clues they may have missed in order to learn from their mistakes and improve on their techniques, as any group of forecasters of whatever variety anywhere should. Bang goes the oft-propogated myth that astro-mets only remember the times when they get it right! > >Cheers, > >DJ Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2002 02:43:06 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Michael Bath - on ABC radio now Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. Michael Bath is a special guest on ABC radio right now talking about storms - it is a talk back segment. Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ User-Agent: Microsoft-Outlook-Express-Macintosh-Edition/5.02.2022 Date: Sat, 09 Feb 2002 13:28:48 -0600 Subject: aus-wx: New to list,thick skin?? From: "Richard Holle" To: X-SLUIDL: 97040DB9-4D184B99-8E75D9B9-CEA24C23 X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id OAA02046 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I am new to this list, I have been trying to incorporate the magnetic effects of the solar wind upon the surface weather patterns of the Earth. The moon becomes a focus of my study as it¹s declinational movement, is in synch with the magnetic rotation of the Sun. Both have 27.32 day periods. The net effect of this is as the solar magnetic fields change, polarity as the lunar declinational tides pull air masses loose from the ITZ or the polar regions. The Moon is at it¹s most southerly point today and you are seeing severe weather Hail, tornadoes, and very heavy rain....in association with the ITZ making a dip south in response to the moons declinational tidal force. In the USA we see the same effects also at maximum North lunar declination. A quick test to see if there is anything to Lunar based forecasting, could be done by anyone with a long term data base available to them and a spreadsheet program that allows standard error analysis. If you would load into one column the high temps for the day, or lows, or precipitation totals for each day. Either for a city, better for an area about the size of a radar screen, or even the average for a province. In the second column load the same type data but from 38 years ago the same dates per row...(leapyear differences cause a 12 hour shift) ie. 1963 = 2001 Them look at the standard deviation between them. I think you will find a better than 75% correlation, on temperatures and better than 60% on precipitation.. Years close to each other yield % correlations much lower. I have used this process to asses data to determine the cyclic patterns of data to be used in generating ³forecasts² which are nothing more than the past data from three different cycles averaged together to generate a resultant pattern that repeats again with an average skill score of 70% better than long term climatology. It is explained in more detail on my site feel free to browse and e-mail me any comments questions you may have, either on or off list. I have from the very beginning (1983) been working in close contact with county agricultural extension agents, and NOAA workers to complete the research I have done with their help and advice, I have had much frustration as a result of the attitude that one man working alone researching the things that the government refuses to fund would be able to find anything significant.... although I do sympathize with the follow excerpts of Carl¹s post. My site is an attempt to place all that I have learned into the public domain. and all forecasts are generated in a box graph type format to indicate %probality as well as range of amount to be expected, rather than a single temperature value. -- Richard Holle aerology at dustdevil.com http://www.aerology.com > However, I am having difficulty understanding how suggestions made by Ken > that climate and weather forecasts could be improved by a more open-minded > approach are offensive or that they reflect badly on all professional > forecasters. > Surely suggestions that there may be ways to improve things ought to be > seen in the light of better future understanding through cooperation and > research rather than as a source of offense, any potential benefits > that may be gained if adequate research into different/new theories/methods was undertaken. > full details of such research > including the methods used should put in the public domain so we can all > learn something. > When it comes to future planning, LR forecasts of rain or drought periods > and times of likely stormy or freezing weather well into the future may > actually save lives. -- Richard Holle aerology at dustdevil.com http://www.aerology.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ User-Agent: Microsoft-Outlook-Express-Macintosh-Edition/5.02.2022 Date: Sat, 09 Feb 2002 16:41:09 -0600 Subject: aus-wx: New to list, quick view via the Long paddoc site... From: "Richard Holle" To: X-SLUIDL: 87458A12-ED4848A2-BEDFAB82-E49CC2D1 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Richard Holle2/9/02 1:28 PMaerology at dustdevil.com I used the informaztion here to evaluate the effects of el nino cycles, in the summer of 2000 when Jennifer Lawson came to visit and study each other's weather predicting methods for several months. It occured to me that it would be easy to show you graphic examples of any similarities by setting up links to cyclicly same months.. for Nov 1963> http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/carrier/rain/aus/rain.m/196311.gif for Nov 2001> http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/carrier/rain/aus/rain.m/200111.gif for Dec 1963> http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/carrier/rain/aus/rain.m/196312.gif for Dec 2001> http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/carrier/rain/aus/rain.m/200112.gif for Jan 1964> http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/carrier/rain/aus/rain.m/196401.gif for Jan 2002> http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/carrier/rain/aus/rain.m/200201.gif and if there is a trend that repeats Feb of 1964 should look like February of 2002> http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/carrier/rain/aus/rain.m/196402.gif Form your own opinon but it doesn't look as impressive as the USA data.... You might try the temperature data as rainfall is less regular... -- Richard Holle aerology at dustdevil.com http://www.aerology.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2002 12:05:02 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: final comment -> from Ken Ring Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. I am fowarding the following post from Ken Ring. Regards, Carl. X-From_: ken at weatherman.co.nz Sun Feb 10 04:40:39 2002 From: "Ken Ring" To: "Carl Smith" Subject: final comment Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2002 07:45:29 +1300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 D.Jones wrote > My statement about finding it offensive stems from the fact that the failure of forecasts, can and has frequently lead to > the loss of human life. To claim that somehow climate and weather forecasts could have been better (thereby >preventing loss of life and property) if only it weren't for the closed-mindedness of meteorologists, is offensive to me. Lives have been lost, as the offended correspondent notes, through the failure of the regular metservices to respond quickly enough to gales, floods, storms and earthquakes they had no idea were coming. Stacked against that, I would like to know of one life lost from the observance of a forecast made by an alternative longrange forecaster like myself. To claim to be offended by my calling for better forecasting methods is just plain stupid, and I hope for the sake of research that this correspondent is not representative of members of this list. After some very gleeful comparisons of my methods to a random machine, the sudden silence in response to my (to my mind) very reasonable challenge is both weird and disappointing, and demonstrates that an official longrange system is currently nonexistent. With that in mind I withdraw my challenge. What meteorologists call longrange is only extended range, up to ten days at most. I would have thought it more offensive that scientists would rather see more lives lost than investigate new apporoaches, lest the status quo be breached. There is a head-in-the-sand culture in met-circles that is more political than scientific, and until this changes, more lives will be lost. That is a plain and simple fact of life. But they are not alone. I have tried to interest coastguards and yachtclubs as to how the moon generates large swells and storm systems, for instance the lunar perigeal storm that drowned 6 and turned back 67 boats during the 1998 Sydney-to-Hobart race; I have sent countless articles to local media, but no one seems to want to know. Quite the reverse - there is a metservice contract ban, at least in this country, that forbids editors to consider and publicise alternative ideas. I have been told this by two separate publishers. Needless to say, I find that offensive too. I am sad to say that this is my final post to this list. It has been fun while it lasted, and I pay tribute to Carl Smith for his instigation, co-operation and moderation. But I cannot risk offending more people with my blunt style, just because I call a spade a spade. In a private email I have received an implied threat of international legal action already by your correspondent and as this is absolutely untenable it would be dangerous for me to continue contributing. I respectfully suggest that members examine carefully what they really want from this discussion forum. A closed shop with no fresh input from left field? A get-the-outsider culture that kicks the newcomer before he even has a chance to explain his system? Or an openminded truth-seeking group, genuinely interested in developing better forecasting methods. There was a stage whereby I was ready to divulge my methods to this list, the results of my 25 years of research, sensing empathetic ears. I would have hoped to see people with a parallel interest run with my method for a while and see if it held true. I can no longer entertain that intention, and I suggest that the next time someone with fresh ideas happens to surface, members not only exercise grace but also openly protect him from the irrational fanatics. Ken Ring www.predictweather.com ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Steve Baynham" To: "weather" Subject: aus-wx: PICS: Friday 8th report Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2002 13:19:58 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
howdy all!
Friday was a pretty sweeeet day, weather wise. arrived home early from work to see a storm south of toowoomba headed straight for me here on the Gold Coast. http://www.bsch.au.com/reports/index.shtml
go here and check out the report and lightning pics.
BYE!!!!
 
 
Steve Baynham
icq : 26863574
http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany
 
Brisbane Storm Chasers
http://www.bsch.au.com
 
Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
 

 
X-Originating-IP: [210.49.99.174] From: "Karl Lijnders" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Wierd stuff out western Vic!. Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2002 20:57:27 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 10 Feb 2002 09:57:27.0511 (UTC) FILETIME=[58B29670:01C1B219] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey Clyve, Well I was up til 4:30am on the morning of the rain event and the yellow-pink echoes were stationary b/w Colac and Ballarat from when it developed which was around 3am til I went to bed...so those falls would not be surprising...though wouldn't major stream rises support those sort of totals? Karl:) >From: "Daniel Lester" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Wierd stuff out western Vic!. >Date: Sat, 09 Feb 2002 22:09:33 +1100 > >Extraordinary, wish we would cop that sort of lashing. But nothing exciting >ever seems to happen in your own background. > > >>From: "Clyve Herbert" >>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >>To: >>Subject: aus-wx: Wierd stuff out western Vic!. >>Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 21:49:08 +1100 >> >>Hi all record watchers and Blair. >>News of what I would consider to be an extraordinary rain event over parts >>of western Victoria and some parts of the west central district are >>filtering in from farm settlements between Cressy and Colac,farmers >>checking their gauges on Friday morning have found them full and >>overflowing and unable to record more than the 250mm that their gauges can >>hold, most of this rain fell between 0300 and 0900 hrs (not confirmed) >>estimates of totals between 200 and 300mm have been reported in a band >>extending south from Cressy to near Colac.These areas have annual means of >>between 545mm and 650mm,and means for the month of February are about >>35mm!, this would have to be pretty close to some sought of record with >>totals of between 600 and 800% of the monthly ave coming down in one >>night!!, in some cases an amount of 300mm is close to 60% of the yearly >>mean. Observation of the sat pic showed an intense but narrow wrap around >>band associated with rapid cyclogenisis that moved over this region >>between >>0300 and 1000hrs on Friday. regards Clyve H. >> > >_________________________________________________________________ >Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >message. >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "B Groughan" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2002 21:50:33 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com G'day Ellerston is about half way between Scone and Glouster in the Hunter district NSW. We ended up with about 70mm over 2 days. --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by Expert Anti-Virus. Version: 6.0.312 / Virus Database: 173 - Release Date: 12/31/01 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: aus-wx: Storm photos - 8th February 2002 Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2002 22:19:02 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - host1.ns4ua.com X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - world.std.com X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [0 0] / [0 0] X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - ozthunder.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I have put up some pictures and a small report of the storm on the 8th February 2002 at Wollongong. http://ozthunder.com/chase/chase30.htm Michael +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Aus Tropo stuff. Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2002 12:36:23 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 11 Feb 2002 01:38:17.0554 (UTC) FILETIME=[C78B9320:01C1B29C] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
Several areas of interest at midday east Aus time today (11.02.02.). An interesting but small area of positive convection near Derby WA is showing rather good upper divergence and small but good inflow, seems to be moving westward, this area of activity has been paddling about the lower top end for a couple of days, some potential if this disturbance gets itself over open sea, also the Gulf of Carpentaria is looking better although the upper divergence is dominated by stronger easterlies above 300hpa while the divergent field to the south is rather weak at the moment. The tropical disturbance moving over the southern Coral Sea is showing some weak organization but looks to be too far south and may be enveloped by cooler air moving through the north Tasman today. regards Clyve H.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Possible QLD Cyclone Now probable Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2002 14:56:11 +1000 (EST) From: chris.nitsopoulos at jcu.edu.au User-Agent: IMP/PHP IMAP webmail program 2.2.7 X-Originating-IP: 137.219.16.102 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Guys latest outlook issued at 2:40PM is for a tropical cyclone to develop in the Central/Southern Coral Sea. I have seen an interesting model (NOGAPS) which has the system intensifying and remaining where it is for almost a week before moving it North very slowly. Below is an extract from the BOM Cyclone outlook for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East Issued at 2:39pm on Monday the 11th of February 2002 A low 1001 hPa is located near 20.5S 156.5 E and is almost stationary. Over the next couple of days the low is expected to intensify further and there is high potential for it to develop into a tropical cyclone CHEERS: Chris +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2002 15:24:50 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: New to list, quick view via the Long paddoc site... Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Richard and All. >Richard Holle2/9/02 1:28 PMaerology at dustdevil.com > >I used the informaztion here to evaluate the effects of el nino cycles, in >the summer of 2000 when Jennifer Lawson came to visit and study each other's >weather predicting methods for several months. It occured to me that it >would be easy to show you graphic examples of any similarities by setting up >links to cyclicly same months.. > >for Nov 1963> >http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/carrier/rain/aus/rain.m/196311.gif >for Nov 2001> >http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/carrier/rain/aus/rain.m/200111.gif >for Dec 1963> >http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/carrier/rain/aus/rain.m/196312.gif >for Dec 2001> >http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/carrier/rain/aus/rain.m/200112.gif >for Jan 1964> >http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/carrier/rain/aus/rain.m/196401.gif >for Jan 2002> >http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/carrier/rain/aus/rain.m/200201.gif > >and if there is a trend that repeats Feb of 1964 should look like February >of 2002> >http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/carrier/rain/aus/rain.m/196402.gif > >Form your own opinon but it doesn't look as impressive as the USA data.... >You might try the temperature data as rainfall is less regular... Thanks for the pointers - the correlations do not look that good in this case, however Australian rainfall is notoriously unreliable being the driest of the inhabited continents. Perhaps trends would be better revealed by the use of daily datasets instead of monthly medians, and as you say temperatures could be a better indicator if the percentages in your previous email also apply to Australian conditions. >-- >Richard Holle aerology at dustdevil.com http://www.aerology.com Regards, Carl. > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2002 15:24:39 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: New to list,thick skin?? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Richard and All. >I am new to this list, Welcome to the list. I have been trying to incorporate the magnetic >effects of the solar wind upon the surface weather patterns of the Earth. This certainly looks like an interesting physical theory that some of the more scientifically inclined persons on the list might be able to get their heads around - overall they did not fare too well with Ken Ring's atmospheric-tide theories. > >The moon becomes a focus of my study as it's declinational movement, is in >synch with the magnetic rotation of the Sun. Both have 27.32 day periods. >The net effect of this is as the solar magnetic fields change, polarity as >the lunar declinational tides pull air masses loose from the ITZ or the >polar regions. It is quite interesting that you say there is a synchronisation between the Moons declinational cycle and magnetic rotation of the Sun, especially in view with some of the 'anti-Lunar forecasting' type opinion that has been posted here lately. > >The Moon is at it's most southerly point today and you are seeing severe >weather Hail, tornadoes, and very heavy rain....in association with the ITZ >making a dip south in response to the moons declinational tidal force. In >the USA we see the same effects also at maximum North lunar declination. > > > >A quick test to see if there is anything to Lunar based forecasting, could >be done by anyone with a long term data base available to them and a >spreadsheet program that allows standard error analysis. > >If you would load into one column the high temps for the day, or lows, or >precipitation totals for each day. Either for a city, better for an area >about the size of a radar screen, or even the average for a province. In the >second column load the same type data but from 38 years ago the same dates >per row...(leapyear differences cause a 12 hour shift) ie. 1963 = 2001 >Them look at the standard deviation between them. I think you will find a >better than 75% correlation, on temperatures and better than 60% on >precipitation.. > >Years close to each other yield % correlations much lower. > >I have used this process to asses data to determine the cyclic patterns of >data to be used in generating "forecasts" which are nothing more than the >past data from three different cycles averaged together to generate a >resultant pattern that repeats again with an average skill score of 70% >better than long term climatology. > >It is explained in more detail on my site feel free to browse and e-mail me >any comments questions you may have, either on or off list. OK met forecasters and other interested parties, here is a scientifically based method of testing weather correlations to Lunar cyclic information, and a system of Lunar LR forecasting based on it for you to look into. You do not even have to spend time figuring out how to do it as that has already been done for you. It simply requires access to sufficient data - perhaps someone could post URL's for where comprehensive historical data sets of daily Australian temperature and rainfall data are available so this method is available to anyone who wants to have a look. > >I have from the very beginning (1983) been working in close contact with >county agricultural extension agents, and NOAA workers to complete the >research I have done with their help and advice, I have had much frustration >as a result of the attitude that one man working alone researching the >things that the government refuses to fund would be able to find anything >significant.... At least SOME meteorologists appear to be open-minded enough to work with people who have alternative viewpoints. > >although I do sympathize with the follow excerpts of Carl's post. My site is >an attempt to place all that I have learned into the public domain. and all >forecasts are generated in a box graph type format to indicate %probality as >well as range of amount to be expected, rather than a single temperature >value. Congratulations Richard on placing your material in the public domain. > >-- >Richard Holle aerology at dustdevil.com http://www.aerology.com Regards, Carl. > >> However, I am having difficulty understanding how suggestions made by Ken >> that climate and weather forecasts could be improved by a more open-minded >> approach are offensive or that they reflect badly on all professional >> forecasters. >> Surely suggestions that there may be ways to improve things ought to be >> seen in the light of better future understanding through cooperation and >> research rather than as a source of offense, any potential benefits >> that may be gained if adequate research into different/new theories/methods >was undertaken. >> full details of such research >> including the methods used should put in the public domain so we can all >> learn something. >> When it comes to future planning, LR forecasts of rain or drought periods >> and times of likely stormy or freezing weather well into the future may >> actually save lives. > >-- >Richard Holle aerology at dustdevil.com http://www.aerology.com > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: A little more info on Tropical Low near Queensland Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2002 15:31:48 +1000 (EST) From: chris.nitsopoulos at jcu.edu.au User-Agent: IMP/PHP IMAP webmail program 2.2.7 X-Originating-IP: 137.219.16.102 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi again, I apologise for this but I should have put this into my previous email. This is the latest from the JTWC on the Coral Sea system. I recieved it at 2:54PM on an Automated list.1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0S0 156.0E2 TO 23.8S3 156.9E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 110230Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.3S3 156.1E3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC. A 102126Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTED A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND SOUTHWEST TO WEST OF THE LLCC, AS WELL AS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING EAST TO SOUTH. A 101958Z4 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 120430Z0.// The big question WHERE IS IT GOING TO GO? Neither forecast agency wants to touch that yet. CHEERS (again) Chris +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p307-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.148.53] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2002 17:05:59 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Cc: "Adam Mayo" Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Judy has done well with the following photographs and has awaited patiently for them to be posted. Well here they are, definitely worth waiting for and some of the most spectacular pictures one can ask for!!!! either go to C:\australiansevereweather\photography\recd09.htm http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/recd09.htm http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/recd10.htm Photos have also been listed in other categories. My 'scientific' favourite regards whole cloud structure http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2002/0208jm10.jpg Obviously the second storm was overall the most spectacular. It is a right mover and the first storm I was onto earlier in the day west of Gosford though not as spectacular as this. You can tell the different storms as Judy and Adam were south of the first storm and then north of the second storm. I hope I got this correct Judy. These are absolutely fine shots and an example of what high wind shear can do with storm structure together with lower level wind shear. ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: aus-wx: CYCLONE FOR QLD Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2002 18:33:00 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Well guys.. its a little over due.. But its a cyclone Regards Jason TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN Issued at 4.30pm on Monday the 11th of February 2002 At 4pm EST Tropical Cyclone CLAUDIA, Category 1, was centred about 800 kilometres east of Mackay on the central Queensland coast. The cyclone is expected to remain almost stationary through Tuesday while slowly intensifying. As gales are not expected on the Queensland coast within the next 2 days, a Cyclone Watch is not required at this time. The central pressure of the cyclone is 995 hectopascals with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour near the centre. A Storm Warning has been issued for ocean waters in the vicinity of the cyclone. This Bulletin can be heard by dialling 1300 659 212 for the cost of a local call. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Clarke" To: Subject: aus-wx: Claudia - she is ! Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2002 17:26:43 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 11 Feb 2002 07:27:20.0509 (UTC) FILETIME=[8A84E6D0:01C1B2CD] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all
 
Claudia she is and its about time too !!! Caught a few computer models off guard I think.
 
 
Keep watching carefully, its been a while since a TC started in a fairly central position in the Coral Sea.
 
 
Regards
Simon
From: "dann weatherhead" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cc: "Adam Mayo" Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2002 17:52:28 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com wowzers!!!!!! I also have photos from this day. They should be developed and processed shortly :) Well done Judy and Adam!!!!! dann ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jimmy Deguara" To: Sent: Monday, February 11, 2002 5:05 PM Subject: aus-wx: Cc: "Adam Mayo" > Hi all, > > Judy has done well with the following photographs and has awaited patiently > for them to be posted. Well here they are, definitely worth waiting for and > some of the most spectacular pictures one can ask for!!!! > either go to > > C:\australiansevereweather\photography\recd09.htm > > http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/recd09.htm > > http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/recd10.htm > > Photos have also been listed in other categories. > > My 'scientific' favourite regards whole cloud structure > > http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2002/0208jm10.jpg > > > Obviously the second storm was overall the most spectacular. It is a right > mover and the first storm I was onto earlier in the day west of Gosford > though not as spectacular as this. > > You can tell the different storms as Judy and Adam were south of the first > storm and then north of the second storm. I hope I got this correct Judy. > > These are absolutely fine shots and an example of what high wind shear can > do with storm structure together with lower level wind shear. > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Unbelievable!!! 2 cyclones to develop in Coral Sea!!!! Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 06:17:28 +1000 (EST) From: chris.nitsopoulos at jcu.edu.au User-Agent: IMP/PHP IMAP webmail program 2.2.7 X-Originating-IP: 137.219.16.102 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi everyone, extremely exciting stuff happening in the Coral Sea. We have Tropical Cyclone Claudia just upgraded to Category 2. Unfortunately she looks to not be approaching the coast but rather moving parrallel to it. Becoming more interesting is an upper LOw that has been situated to the North West of Charters Towers about 400KM NW of Townsville. This low has been sitting there for days on end and is now expected to reflect itself on the surface and move offshore around Innisfail later today and is being given a High chance at development into a cyclone by tonight or tomorrow. Initially it looks to track towards the East. Winds are expected to freshen along the whole length of Queensland coastline by this evening as well as in the Gulf. If we add these two systems to the one SW or South of Darwin (which is moving towards the Gulf and expected to intensify) it could be a very big week for Queensland weather. Below are exerpts from the Bureau of Strong wind warnings and other related stuff:PRIORITY STRONG WIND WARNING FOR SMALL CRAFT Issued at 4:01am on Tuesday the 12th of February 2002 for coastal waters between Cape Melville and Bowen. Expect NW winds 25/30 knots today between about Cape Melville and Cardwell. Expect S/SE winds to possibly increase to 25/30 knots between about Cardwell and Bowen overnight. Seas to 2.8 metres. A fresh to strong monsoon flow exits over northern waters. A low may develop off the coast overnight and move east away from the coast PRIORITY STRONG WIND WARNING FOR SMALL CRAFT Issued at 3:54am on Tuesday the 12th of February 2002 for the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria Expect NW winds 25/30 knots in most open waters. Seas to 3.0 metres with NW swells to 2.5 metres. A deep monsoon low is located to the northeast of Darwin and expected to move east today. Strong NW monsoon flow over the area. At 5am EST Tropical Cyclone CLAUDIA, Category 2, was centred about 870 kilometres east-southeast of Mackay on the central Queensland coast. The cyclone is currently moving southeast roughly parallel to the Queensland coast. The cyclone is posing no threat to the Queensland coast. The central pressure of the cyclone is 985 hectopascals with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour near the centre. A Storm Warning has been issued for ocean waters in the vicinity of the cyclone It is currently fine and bright without a breath of wind here in Townsville, you wouldn't know any of this is happening or about to happen. CHEERS: Chris +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p307-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.148.53] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2002 22:48:18 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: 8th February pics cont. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I have scanned some of my pics and they are online at http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd20020211.html They include the some of the photographs taken on 8th February - as usual the URL reveals the date. Cheers. Jimmy Deguara At 05:45 PM 11/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Let me correct the post below: > >Hi all, >Judy has done well with the following photographs and has awaited >patiently for them to be posted. Well here they are, definitely worth >waiting for and some of the most spectacular pictures one can ask for!!!! >either go to > > >http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/recd09.htm > >http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/recd10.htm > >Photos have also been listed in other categories. > >My 'scientific' favourite regards whole cloud structure > >http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2002/0208jm10.jpg > > >Obviously the second storm was overall the most spectacular. The first was >a right mover and I was onto it earlier in the day west of Gosford though >not as spectacular as this. The second storm was a left mover though only >slight left movement. > >You can tell the different storms as Judy and Adam were south of the first >storm and then north of the second storm. I hope I got this correct Judy. > >These are absolutely fine shots and an example of what high wind shear can >do with storm structure together with lower level wind shear. > >Jimmy Deguara > >At 05:05 PM 11/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >>Hi all, >> >>Judy has done well with the following photographs and has awaited >>patiently for them to be posted. Well here they are, definitely worth >>waiting for and some of the most spectacular pictures one can ask for!!!! >>either go to >> >>C:\australiansevereweather\photography\recd09.htm >> >>http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/recd09.htm >> >>http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/recd10.htm >> >>Photos have also been listed in other categories. >> >>My 'scientific' favourite regards whole cloud structure >> >>http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2002/0208jm10.jpg >> >> >>Obviously the second storm was overall the most spectacular. It is a >>right mover and the first storm I was onto earlier in the day west of >>Gosford though not as spectacular as this. >> >>You can tell the different storms as Judy and Adam were south of the >>first storm and then north of the second storm. I hope I got this correct Judy. >> >>These are absolutely fine shots and an example of what high wind shear >>can do with storm structure together with lower level wind shear. >> >>----------------------------------------- >>Jimmy Deguara >>Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher >> >>from >>Schofields, Sydney >>NSW Australia >> >>e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au >> >>Web Page with Michael Bath >> >>Australian Severe Weather Home Page >>http://www.australiasevereweather.com >> >>President of the Australian Severe Weather Association >>http://www.severeweather.asn.au >> >>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >>To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com >>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >>message. >>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > >----------------------------------------- >Jimmy Deguara >Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > >from >Schofields, Sydney >NSW Australia > >e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > >Web Page with Michael Bath > >Australian Severe Weather Home Page >http://www.australiasevereweather.com > >President of the Australian Severe Weather Association >http://www.severeweather.asn.au ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 03:38:13 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: TC Claudia satpic loop Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. You will find a satpic loop of TC Claudia at http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/imagescurrent/g5.trop.satpicloop.gif - in one of the frames you will see a nicely developed eye in this midget cyclone. I will continue to update it daily. JTWC has it as a rather more intense cyclone than the BoM - see the advices below. My guess is that the next BoM bulletin will see it wound up a notch or two. Regards, Carl. IDQ20065 BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY Queensland Region Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre UPDATED TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN For 11pm EST on Monday the 11th of February 2002 At 10pm EST Tropical Cyclone CLAUDIA, Category 1, was centred about 800 kilometres east-southeast of Mackay on the central Queensland coast. The cyclone is currently moving south-southeast roughly parallel to the Queensland coast while intensifying. As gales are not expected on the Queensland coast within the next 2 days, a Cyclone Watch is not required at this time. The central pressure of the cyclone is 995 hectopascals with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour near the centre. A Storm Warning has been issued for ocean waters in the vicinity of the cyclone. This Bulletin can be heard by dialling 1300 659 212 for the cost of a local call. A Tropical Cyclone Track Map is available on Weather-By-Fax 1902 935 277 and also on the Bureau's web site at http://www.bom.gov.au. The next Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletin will be issued at 5am Tuesday. WTPS31 PGTW 111500 AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z5 --- NEAR 22.0S4 156.9E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 156.9E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 23.7S2 157.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 25.3S0 158.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 26.3S1 159.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 27.3S2 161.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 29.4S5 165.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 157.1E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 14P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS WITH A CLEARLY DEFINED EYE IN INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. HOWEVER, LATEST CI ESTIMATES RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 35 KNOTS TO 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING MIDGET SYSTEM (ABOUT 2 DEGREE DIAMETER) WITH A 8-NM EYE. A 110958Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A DEVELOPING EYE WITH A WEAK BANDING FEATURE SOUTH. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14P IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WERE LIMITED WITH NOGAPS INDICATING A SOUTHWARD TRACK, THEN ERRONEOUSLY NORTHEASTWARD AFTERWARDS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS THROUGH 24 HOURS, THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL, AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5, 120300Z6, 120900Z2 AND 121500Z9.// ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp4.ihug.co.nz: Host p204-nas11.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.213.204] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Claudia - she is ! Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 18:38:14 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
HI,
Yes, a TC is well over due. But the models are pouring cold water on this one. 
Steven W
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, February 11, 2002 8:26 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Claudia - she is !

Hi all
 
Claudia she is and its about time too !!! Caught a few computer models off guard I think.
 
 
Keep watching carefully, its been a while since a TC started in a fairly central position in the Coral Sea.
 
 
Regards
Simon
X-Authentication-Warning: smtp4.ihug.co.nz: Host p204-nas11.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.213.204] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: 8th February pics cont. Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 18:44:11 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Outstanding pictures. Good example of Cumulonimbus Congestus. Steven W ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jimmy Deguara" To: Sent: Tuesday, February 12, 2002 12:48 AM Subject: aus-wx: 8th February pics cont. > Hi all, > > I have scanned some of my pics and they are online at > > http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd20020211.html > > They include the some of the photographs taken on 8th February - as usual > the URL reveals the date. > > Cheers. > > Jimmy Deguara > > At 05:45 PM 11/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: > >Let me correct the post below: > > > >Hi all, > >Judy has done well with the following photographs and has awaited > >patiently for them to be posted. Well here they are, definitely worth > >waiting for and some of the most spectacular pictures one can ask for!!!! > >either go to > > > > > >http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/recd09.htm > > > >http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/recd10.htm > > > >Photos have also been listed in other categories. > > > >My 'scientific' favourite regards whole cloud structure > > > >http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2002/0208jm10.jpg > > > > > >Obviously the second storm was overall the most spectacular. The first was > >a right mover and I was onto it earlier in the day west of Gosford though > >not as spectacular as this. The second storm was a left mover though only > >slight left movement. > > > >You can tell the different storms as Judy and Adam were south of the first > >storm and then north of the second storm. I hope I got this correct Judy. > > > >These are absolutely fine shots and an example of what high wind shear can > >do with storm structure together with lower level wind shear. > > > >Jimmy Deguara > > > >At 05:05 PM 11/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: > >>Hi all, > >> > >>Judy has done well with the following photographs and has awaited > >>patiently for them to be posted. Well here they are, definitely worth > >>waiting for and some of the most spectacular pictures one can ask for!!!! > >>either go to > >> > >>C:\australiansevereweather\photography\recd09.htm > >> > >>http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/recd09.htm > >> > >>http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/recd10.htm > >> > >>Photos have also been listed in other categories. > >> > >>My 'scientific' favourite regards whole cloud structure > >> > >>http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2002/0208jm10.jpg > >> > >> > >>Obviously the second storm was overall the most spectacular. It is a > >>right mover and the first storm I was onto earlier in the day west of > >>Gosford though not as spectacular as this. > >> > >>You can tell the different storms as Judy and Adam were south of the > >>first storm and then north of the second storm. I hope I got this correct Judy. > >> > >>These are absolutely fine shots and an example of what high wind shear > >>can do with storm structure together with lower level wind shear. > >> > >>----------------------------------------- > >>Jimmy Deguara > >>Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > >> > >>from > >>Schofields, Sydney > >>NSW Australia > >> > >>e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > >> > >>Web Page with Michael Bath > >> > >>Australian Severe Weather Home Page > >>http://www.australiasevereweather.com > >> > >>President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > >>http://www.severeweather.asn.au > >> > >>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > >>To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > >>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > >>message. > >>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > >----------------------------------------- > >Jimmy Deguara > >Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > > >from > >Schofields, Sydney > >NSW Australia > > > >e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > > >Web Page with Michael Bath > > > >Australian Severe Weather Home Page > >http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > > >President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > >http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aus Wx" Subject: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 18:30:30 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello to our New Zealand friends!! TC Claudia is heading your way. Currently being captured by a mid-latitude trough & may transform into an extra-tropical low. It will be interesting to see if it skirts the North Island. Get your kites ready!! Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "TJ" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: CYCLONE FOR QLD Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 05:35:48 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I think that is the best news I have had all day! Is it going to affect the gold coast? (here's hoping anyway). There has been some pretty strong wind around my place for the last 24+ hours. Tanya -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of The Weather Man Sent: Monday, February 11, 2002 7:33 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: CYCLONE FOR QLD Well guys.. its a little over due.. But its a cyclone Regards Jason TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN Issued at 4.30pm on Monday the 11th of February 2002 At 4pm EST Tropical Cyclone CLAUDIA, Category 1, was centred about 800 kilometres east of Mackay on the central Queensland coast. The cyclone is expected to remain almost stationary through Tuesday while slowly intensifying. As gales are not expected on the Queensland coast within the next 2 days, a Cyclone Watch is not required at this time. The central pressure of the cyclone is 995 hectopascals with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour near the centre. A Storm Warning has been issued for ocean waters in the vicinity of the cyclone. This Bulletin can be heard by dialling 1300 659 212 for the cost of a local call. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\winmail.dat" Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 20:48:14 +1300 From: Gregg Ward User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.0; en-US; rv:0.9.8) Gecko/20020204 X-Accept-Language: en-us To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jane, What sort of timeframe? Gregg Ward Jane ONeill wrote: > Hello to our New Zealand friends!! > > > TC Claudia is heading your way. Currently being captured by a mid-latitude > trough & may transform into an extra-tropical low. It will be interesting > to see if it skirts the North Island. > > > Get your kites ready!! > > Jane > --------------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > --------------------------------------- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > -- Gregg Ward E-mail: gregg.ward at xtra.co.nz ICQ: 114869387 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32) Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 23:32:22 +1300 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: John Gaul Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 18:30 12/02/02 +1100, you wrote: >Hello to our New Zealand friends!! > > >TC Claudia is heading your way. Currently being captured by a mid-latitude >trough & may transform into an extra-tropical low. It will be interesting >to see if it skirts the North Island. > > >Get your kites ready!! > >Jane Not too sure what will happen. The eye looks good on the latest JMS Satpic (2100hrs NZDT - 12th Feb) Lows have been deepening rapidly to the east of the country at the moment. Interesting to see if Claudia will follow a similar pattern. The models don't predict too much at the moment JohnGaul NZ Thunderstorm soc +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [202.7.15.25] From: "Daniel Lester" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 21:25:41 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 12 Feb 2002 10:25:41.0500 (UTC) FILETIME=[9F384BC0:01C1B3AF] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com A few days I'd imagine. >From: Gregg Ward >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future >Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 20:48:14 +1300 > >Jane, > >What sort of timeframe? > > >Gregg Ward > >Jane ONeill wrote: >>Hello to our New Zealand friends!! >> >> >>TC Claudia is heading your way. Currently being captured by a >>mid-latitude >>trough & may transform into an extra-tropical low. It will be interesting >>to see if it skirts the North Island. >> >> >>Get your kites ready!! >> >>Jane >>--------------------------------------- >>Jane ONeill - Melbourne >>cadence at stormchasers.au.com >>Melbourne Storm Chasers >>http://www.stormchasers.au.com >>ASWA - Victoria >>http://www.severeweather.asn.au >>--------------------------------------- >> >> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >>to:majordomo at world.std.com >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >> message. >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ >> >> >> > > > >-- > > > > >Gregg Ward >E-mail: gregg.ward at xtra.co.nz >ICQ: 114869387 > > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >message. >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32) Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 23:33:04 +1300 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: John Gaul Subject: Re: aus-wx: Claudia - she is ! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 18:38 12/02/02 +1300, you wrote: > HI, Steven W ----- Original Message ----- From: Simon Clarke > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sent: Monday, February 11, 2002 >8:26 PM Subject: aus-wx: Claudia - she is ! > Hi all Claudia she is and computer models off guard I think. > Keep watching carefully, its been a while since a TC started in a >fairly central position in the Coral Sea. Regards Simon > Amazing Jet Stream processing going on at the moment with these low pressure systems quickly deepening and moving off to the east of NZ delivering huge swells along our eastern coasts. The latest trough is expecting to deepen out to the east of the North Island ( hindering salvage operations in Gisborne of the stranded log ship, Jody F.Millennium) JohnGaul NZ Thunderstorm Soc +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 22:05:09 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I think later tomorrow or the day after if it holds together,but it looks like it's being drawn into the trough & may be drawn into the development of the low near the North Island. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- > A few days I'd imagine. > > > >From: Gregg Ward > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future > >Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 20:48:14 +1300 > > > >Jane, > > > >What sort of timeframe? > > > > > >Gregg Ward > > > >Jane ONeill wrote: > >>Hello to our New Zealand friends!! > >> > >> > >>TC Claudia is heading your way. Currently being captured by a > >>mid-latitude > >>trough & may transform into an extra-tropical low. It will be interesting > >>to see if it skirts the North Island. > >> > >> > >>Get your kites ready!! > >> > >>Jane > >>--------------------------------------- > >>Jane ONeill - Melbourne > >>cadence at stormchasers.au.com > >>Melbourne Storm Chasers > >>http://www.stormchasers.au.com > >>ASWA - Victoria > >>http://www.severeweather.asn.au > >>--------------------------------------- > >> > >> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > >>to:majordomo at world.std.com > >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > >> message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- > >> > >> > >> > > > > > > > >-- > > > > > > > > > >Gregg Ward > >E-mail: gregg.ward at xtra.co.nz > >ICQ: 114869387 > > > > > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > >message. > >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > _________________________________________________________________ > Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 23:53:53 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Jane, At the risk of starting the debate once again, I note that, Ken Ring has, for quite some time (months in fact), had Feb 12th-14th as a time when NZ North Island will likely be affected by a TC in the vicinity. This forecast is on his web site. John. >snip -----Original Message----- I think later tomorrow or the day after if it holds together,but it looks like it's being drawn into the trough & may be drawn into the development of the low near the North Island. Jane +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [144.132.45.8] From: "Liam Domanski" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Vic storm chase Date: Thu, 07 Feb 2002 21:41:10 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Feb 2002 10:41:10.0740 (UTC) FILETIME=[F5065140:01C1AFC3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi weather peoples. Macca and I had a great chase to the west of Melb today. Saw a small funnel or 2, and some AWESOME storms!!!! Possibly a HP Supercell with very nice GREEN clouds out near Ballarat. Converged with Nick near Ballan, and chased back to Melb. Some NICE pics and video footage coming your way from the 3 of us. ROCK ON VICTORIA!!!! Liam _________________________________________________________________ Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: NW.WA. Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 11:12:50 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Feb 2002 00:14:35.0994 (UTC) FILETIME=[6B49D3A0:01C1B423] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
Although there has or seems to be little interest in a persistent disturbance that has been playing about the Derby to Wyndham area over the past 5 days, which has shown reasonable outflow features and a region of positive convection, this area of development has now decided to go and play over the sea west of the Mitchell Plateau. Still showing not too bad outflow characteristics although low to mid convergence is a little on the weakish side, worth keeping a look at over the next 6 to 12 hours regards Clyve H.
X-Originating-IP: [144.132.45.8] From: "Liam Domanski" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Friday in Vic Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 11:43:11 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Feb 2002 00:43:11.0780 (UTC) FILETIME=[69F9FE40:01C1B427] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi weather peoples. Looks like we're in for some heat this week, with temps on Friday forcast in the high 30's for Melb, and possibly low 40's in other parts of the state. Hot northerly winds will dominate the day, before turning southerly, as a trough pushes through from the west during the afternoon. A total fire ban would be almost certain, as the combination of high winds, and heat this week dry everything out. All you people in fire-prone areas, make sure you're ready! I've been cleaning out my block here in Donvale. The bureau is also going for thunderstorms throughout most areas on Friday (also on the ranges today). As the tough pushes through, we should see storms pop up in the west and central areas after lunch. I'm still a newbie at the forcasting end, but I think we might have a nice day of chasing coming up. Any thoughts? Liam _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Friday in Vic Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 12:15:19 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Liam & all, Keep an eye on the MSC Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page at http://www.stormchasers.au.com/feb2002.htm for further updates as we go along. I'm keeping this as up to date as I can as soon as I get people's thoughts on current & developing situations. Macca & Clyve have thoughts up there for today - both for Victoria & further afield. More to come!! Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- Hi weather peoples. Looks like we're in for some heat this week, with temps on Friday forcast in the high 30's for Melb, and possibly low 40's in other parts of the state. Hot northerly winds will dominate the day, before turning southerly, as a trough pushes through from the west during the afternoon. A total fire ban would be almost certain, as the combination of high winds, and heat this week dry everything out. All you people in fire-prone areas, make sure you're ready! I've been cleaning out my block here in Donvale. The bureau is also going for thunderstorms throughout most areas on Friday (also on the ranges today). As the tough pushes through, we should see storms pop up in the west and central areas after lunch. I'm still a newbie at the forcasting end, but I think we might have a nice day of chasing coming up. Any thoughts? Liam _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [210.9.51.36] From: "James Harris" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 13:48:38 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Feb 2002 02:48:39.0158 (UTC) FILETIME=[F0A4B960:01C1B438] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All, Well I have got my pictures back from Feb 8 .. be it a bit later than expected . But some of them do show some nice structure and interesting features ... The following links are pictures of the Gosford / Avalon Cell. Similar to Just Mayos but looking from the SW towards the NE.. Easy to see why the shear was so good that day ! http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james1.JPG http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james2.JPG http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james9.JPG The next Shots are of the 2nd cell that passed just to the north of me at North Sydney around 5 - 6pm. These shots were taken from my window at work (You couldnt ask for a better sight - all up I chased 10 metres for this cell !). Looking across Sydney Harbour to the East http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james5.JPG http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james6.JPG http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james10.JPG http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james11.JPG http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james7.JPG James H _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 13:58:40 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Feb 2002 02:58:40.0295 (UTC) FILETIME=[56F2F370:01C1B43A] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

>From: "John Woodbridge"
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To:
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future
>Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 23:53:53 +1000
>
>Hi Jane,
>
>At the risk of starting the debate once again, I note that, Ken Ring has,
>for quite some time (months in fact), had Feb 12th-14th as a time when NZ
>North Island will likely be affected by a TC in the vicinity. This forecast
>is on his web site.
>
>John.
> >snip
>-----Original Message-----
>
>I think later tomorrow or the day after if it holds together,but it
>looks like it's being drawn into the trough & may be drawn into the
>development of the low near the North Island.
>
>Jane
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: Click Here
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Mark Hardy" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 14:11:32 +1100 Organization: The Weather Company X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Michael, Hardly an objective response. Mark Hardy -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of michael king Sent: Wednesday, 13 February 2002 1:59 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. >From: "John Woodbridge" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: >Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future >Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 23:53:53 +1000 > >Hi Jane, > >At the risk of starting the debate once again, I note that, Ken Ring has, >for quite some time (months in fact), had Feb 12th-14th as a time when NZ >North Island will likely be affected by a TC in the vicinity. This forecast >is on his web site. > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [210.8.232.5] From: "Patrick Tobin" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 03:25:21 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Feb 2002 03:25:21.0496 (UTC) FILETIME=[1156D580:01C1B43E] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I have been studying the astrological charts and am now going to go out on a major limb here. You can all quote me on this.. A major southern ocean low is set to pass very close to South East Australia between the 14th and 17th of August this year. It will have a significant impact on Victoria bringing gales to the coast and higher ranges. The charts show lots of fuzzy white which I take to mean lots of snow on the ranges and I predict hail showers near the coast. Even Canberra will see some snow (either on the nearby ranges or perhaps lower down) from this system. Patrick _________________________________________________________________ Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com Return-Path: Received: from europe.std.com ([199.172.62.20]) by mta07.mail.mel.aone.net.au with ESMTP id <20020213030624.NWFO23669.mta07.mail.mel.aone.net.au at europe.std.com>; Wed, 13 Feb 2002 14:06:24 +1100 Received: (from daemon at localhost) by europe.std.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) id WAA00319 for aussie-weather-outgoing; Tue, 12 Feb 2002 22:06:08 -0500 (EST) Received: from TheWorld.com (pcls1.std.com [199.172.62.103]) by europe.std.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id VAA25217 for ; Tue, 12 Feb 2002 21:58:46 -0500 (EST) Received: from hotmail.com (f50.law11.hotmail.com [64.4.17.50]) by TheWorld.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id VAA05265 for ; Tue, 12 Feb 2002 21:58:45 -0500 Received: from mail pickup service by hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC; Tue, 12 Feb 2002 18:58:40 -0800 Received: from 152.91.9.46 by lw11fd.law11.hotmail.msn.com with HTTP; Wed, 13 Feb 2002 02:58:40 GMT X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 13:58:40 +1100 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/html Message-ID: X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Feb 2002 02:58:40.0295 (UTC) FILETIME=[56F2F370:01C1B43A] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Precedence: list Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

>From: "John Woodbridge"
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To:
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future
>Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 23:53:53 +1000
>
>Hi Jane,
>
>At the risk of starting the debate once again, I note that, Ken Ring has,
>for quite some time (months in fact), had Feb 12th-14th as a time when NZ
>North Island will likely be affected by a TC in the vicinity. This forecast
>is on his web site.
>
>John.
> >snip
>-----Original Message-----
>
>I think later tomorrow or the day after if it holds together,but it
>looks like it's being drawn into the trough & may be drawn into the
>development of the low near the North Island.
>
>Jane
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: Click Here
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p42-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.140.42] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 16:00:00 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Gosh there have been some impressive pictures from this outbreak and these fantastic pics just add another dimension and angle to them. Mario has a view from the Sydney Tower which I will try and put up soon. Jimmy Deguara At 01:48 PM 13/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Hi All, > >Well I have got my pictures back from Feb 8 .. be it a bit later than >expected . But some of them do show some nice structure and interesting >features ... > >The following links are pictures of the Gosford / Avalon Cell. Similar to >Just Mayos but looking from the SW towards the NE.. Easy to see why the >shear was so good that day ! > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james1.JPG >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james2.JPG >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james9.JPG > >The next Shots are of the 2nd cell that passed just to the north of me at >North Sydney around 5 - 6pm. These shots were taken from my window at work >(You couldnt ask for a better sight - all up I chased 10 metres for this >cell !). Looking across Sydney Harbour to the East > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james5.JPG >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james6.JPG >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james10.JPG >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james11.JPG >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james7.JPG > >James H > > >_________________________________________________________________ >Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >message. >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp1.ihug.co.nz: Host p146-nas6.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.216.146] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 18:36:48 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Spectacular stuff. Well done. These storms looked like a great photo opportunity. Cheers Steven Williams Auckland ----- Original Message ----- From: "James Harris" To: Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2002 3:48 PM Subject: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos > > Hi All, > > Well I have got my pictures back from Feb 8 .. be it a bit later than > expected . But some of them do show some nice structure and interesting > features ... > > The following links are pictures of the Gosford / Avalon Cell. Similar to > Just Mayos but looking from the SW towards the NE.. Easy to see why the > shear was so good that day ! > > http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james1.JPG > http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james2.JPG > http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james9.JPG > > The next Shots are of the 2nd cell that passed just to the north of me at > North Sydney around 5 - 6pm. These shots were taken from my window at work > (You couldnt ask for a better sight - all up I chased 10 metres for this > cell !). Looking across Sydney Harbour to the East > > http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james5.JPG > http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james6.JPG > http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james10.JPG > http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james11.JPG > http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james7.JPG > > James H > > > _________________________________________________________________ > Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp2.ihug.co.nz: Host p180-nas11.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.213.180] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 18:43:31 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi, A ex-tropical storm is well over due for these parts but it won't be Claudia. A High is building onto NZ (southerly with 14C at Christchurch today). Steven W Auckland ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2002 12:05 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future > I think later tomorrow or the day after if it holds together,but it > looks like it's being drawn into the trough & may be drawn into the > development of the low near the North Island. > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > A few days I'd imagine. > > > > > > >From: Gregg Ward > > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future > > >Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 20:48:14 +1300 > > > > > >Jane, > > > > > >What sort of timeframe? > > > > > > > > >Gregg Ward > > > > > >Jane ONeill wrote: > > >>Hello to our New Zealand friends!! > > >> > > >> > > >>TC Claudia is heading your way. Currently being captured by a > > >>mid-latitude > > >>trough & may transform into an extra-tropical low. It will be > interesting > > >>to see if it skirts the North Island. > > >> > > >> > > >>Get your kites ready!! > > >> > > >>Jane > > >>--------------------------------------- > > >>Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > >>cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > >>Melbourne Storm Chasers > > >>http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > >>ASWA - Victoria > > >>http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > >>--------------------------------------- > > >> > > >> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > > >>to:majordomo at world.std.com > > >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body > of your > > >> message. > > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > -- > > >> > > >> > > >> > > > > > > > > > > > >-- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Gregg Ward > > >E-mail: gregg.ward at xtra.co.nz > > >ICQ: 114869387 > > > > > > > > > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > >message. > > > >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > > > _________________________________________________________________ > > Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp2.ihug.co.nz: Host p179-nas6.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.216.179] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: aus-wx: TC near Norfolk island Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 19:30:02 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com This storm will pass just north of Norfolk Island. But their temperatures have plummeted. A couple of days ago the dewpoint there was 25C now its 17C, air temp 19C, cool. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2002 12:05 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future > I think later tomorrow or the day after if it holds together,but it > looks like it's being drawn into the trough & may be drawn into the > development of the low near the North Island. > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > A few days I'd imagine. > > > > > > >From: Gregg Ward > > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future > > >Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 20:48:14 +1300 > > > > > >Jane, > > > > > >What sort of timeframe? > > > > > > > > >Gregg Ward > > > > > >Jane ONeill wrote: > > >>Hello to our New Zealand friends!! > > >> > > >> > > >>TC Claudia is heading your way. Currently being captured by a > > >>mid-latitude > > >>trough & may transform into an extra-tropical low. It will be > interesting > > >>to see if it skirts the North Island. > > >> > > >> > > >>Get your kites ready!! > > >> > > >>Jane > > >>--------------------------------------- > > >>Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > >>cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > >>Melbourne Storm Chasers > > >>http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > >>ASWA - Victoria > > >>http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > >>--------------------------------------- > > >> > > >> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > > >>to:majordomo at world.std.com > > >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body > of your > > >> message. > > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > -- > > >> > > >> > > >> > > > > > > > > > > > >-- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Gregg Ward > > >E-mail: gregg.ward at xtra.co.nz > > >ICQ: 114869387 > > > > > > > > > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > >message. > > > >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > > > _________________________________________________________________ > > Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "dann weatherhead" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 17:06:08 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Excellent photos again James. Personally I think that Friday was probably our best storm days for a long long time in the Sydney basin. These storms were spectacular, and were visible supercells. As Jimmy has noted, the amount of windshear a key factor, and it truly illustrated what a bit of shear can do for storms. A BOM spokesperson issued a suprising warning for the storm that hit the northern beaches later in the afternoon. He noted that the storm had the potential to drop 4-5cm hail, and was about to shift its track from a SE direction to a Easterly direction. My photos should be up tommorrow sometime. A full report will be up on SSC in the near future. Also lookout for a heap of additions plus a new site design in the coming months. dann ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jimmy Deguara" To: Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2002 4:00 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos > Gosh there have been some impressive pictures from this outbreak and these > fantastic pics just add another dimension and angle to them. > > Mario has a view from the Sydney Tower which I will try and put up soon. > > Jimmy Deguara > > At 01:48 PM 13/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: > > >Hi All, > > > >Well I have got my pictures back from Feb 8 .. be it a bit later than > >expected . But some of them do show some nice structure and interesting > >features ... > > > >The following links are pictures of the Gosford / Avalon Cell. Similar to > >Just Mayos but looking from the SW towards the NE.. Easy to see why the > >shear was so good that day ! > > > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james1.JPG > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james2.JPG > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james9.JPG > > > >The next Shots are of the 2nd cell that passed just to the north of me at > >North Sydney around 5 - 6pm. These shots were taken from my window at work > >(You couldnt ask for a better sight - all up I chased 10 metres for this > >cell !). Looking across Sydney Harbour to the East > > > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james5.JPG > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james6.JPG > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james10.JPG > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james11.JPG > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james7.JPG > > > >James H > > > > > >_________________________________________________________________ > >Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. > > > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > >message. > >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 18:43:52 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Feb 2002 07:43:47.0217 (UTC) FILETIME=[2B781810:01C1B462] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Great photos from every one... Fantastic!!!!! Although i was 300km from the main action i still got some photos, At app 3:10pm, i was watching a line of severe storms stretch 300km along the NSW south coast up toward sydney... Just after i got up on top of the lookout i saw the very top cell (unsure of posisition, i would say around sydney) produce the most spectacular anvil, from my view it was almost perfectly round!!! Hopefully the photos will turn out, but i wont be able to tell untill next week, cause there is still 20 photos on the roll, i should be able to use them on saturday ;-) and develop the pics Sun or Monday.... Cheers SA ----- Original Message ----- From: "dann weatherhead" To: Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2002 5:06 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos > Excellent photos again James. > > Personally I think that Friday was probably our best storm days for a long > long time in the Sydney basin. These storms were spectacular, and were > visible supercells. As Jimmy has noted, the amount of windshear a key > factor, and it truly illustrated what a bit of shear can do for storms. > > A BOM spokesperson issued a suprising warning for the storm that hit the > northern beaches later in the afternoon. He noted that the storm had the > potential to drop 4-5cm hail, and was about to shift its track from a SE > direction to a Easterly direction. > > My photos should be up tommorrow sometime. A full report will be up on SSC > in the near future. Also lookout for a heap of additions plus a new site > design in the coming months. > > dann > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Jimmy Deguara" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2002 4:00 PM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos > > > > Gosh there have been some impressive pictures from this outbreak and these > > fantastic pics just add another dimension and angle to them. > > > > Mario has a view from the Sydney Tower which I will try and put up soon. > > > > Jimmy Deguara > > > > At 01:48 PM 13/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: > > > > >Hi All, > > > > > >Well I have got my pictures back from Feb 8 .. be it a bit later than > > >expected . But some of them do show some nice structure and interesting > > >features ... > > > > > >The following links are pictures of the Gosford / Avalon Cell. Similar to > > >Just Mayos but looking from the SW towards the NE.. Easy to see why the > > >shear was so good that day ! > > > > > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james1.JPG > > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james2.JPG > > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james9.JPG > > > > > >The next Shots are of the 2nd cell that passed just to the north of me at > > >North Sydney around 5 - 6pm. These shots were taken from my window at > work > > >(You couldnt ask for a better sight - all up I chased 10 metres for this > > >cell !). Looking across Sydney Harbour to the East > > > > > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james5.JPG > > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james6.JPG > > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james10.JPG > > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james11.JPG > > >http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/James/other/james7.JPG > > > > > >James H > > > > > > > > >_________________________________________________________________ > > >Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at > http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. > > > > > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > >message. > > >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > ----------------------------------------- > > Jimmy Deguara > > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > > > from > > Schofields, Sydney > > NSW Australia > > > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 22:25:20 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Feb 8 pictures Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Some pictures from Feb 8 in the Hunter. http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2002/February8.htm Matt Smith +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p42-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.140.42] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 22:50:11 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Feb 8 pictures Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Matt, One word - awesome!!!! I knew that first one was big - I got the back end of it and never was able to get the inflow band in the lower layers because of trees... Excellent. I am interested in what the people from the other states think of this event - not much talk from them. Some of the discussion on the forum and list are becoming a little more state or region orientated rather than science based. Just some thoughts. Jimmy Deguara At 10:25 PM 13/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Some pictures from Feb 8 in the Hunter. > >http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2002/February8.htm > >Matt Smith > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p42-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.140.42] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 22:56:32 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Feb 8 pictures Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, You can tell from the structure that there was some difference in the wind shear, cap environment from the size of the storms and the cork screw differences even from the Sydney ones. Though all were in their beauty on the day. http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/Matt/2002/02-08-02-04.htm http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/Matt/2002/02-08-02-17.htm http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2002/0208jd13.jpg It was an amazing day. Jimmy Deguara At 10:25 PM 13/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Some pictures from Feb 8 in the Hunter. > >http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2002/February8.htm > >Matt Smith > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 12:18:19 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 14 Feb 2002 01:18:19.0868 (UTC) FILETIME=[7CE871C0:01C1B4F5] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

 

Thanks for the warning Patrick.  I'll make a note in my diary, and make sure I bring my Ouija board inside, so it doesn't get damaged by any stormy weather.

>From: "Patrick Tobin"
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future
>Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 03:25:21
>
>I have been studying the astrological charts and am now going to go
>out on a
>major limb here. You can all quote me on this..
>
>A major southern ocean low is set to pass very close to South East
>Australia
>between the 14th and 17th of August this year. It will have a
>significant
>impact on Victoria bringing gales to the coast and higher ranges.
>The charts
>show lots of fuzzy white which I take to mean lots of snow on the
>ranges and
>I predict hail showers near the coast.
>
>Even Canberra will see some snow (either on the nearby ranges or
>perhaps
>lower down) from this system.
>
>Patrick
>
>
>
>_________________________________________________________________
>Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device:
>http://mobile.msn.com
><< message3.txt >>


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+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Townsville Hammered by rain Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 11:48:56 +1000 (EST) From: chris.nitsopoulos at jcu.edu.au User-Agent: IMP/PHP IMAP webmail program 2.2.7 X-Originating-IP: 137.219.16.102 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All Well it looks as though both those potential cyclones didn't eventuate. However the Monsoon trough is very active in North Queensland and I suspect it is also quite active in the Northern Territory. There is currently a slow moving convergence zone between the Monsoon Northerlies and the Ridging South Easterlies. The convergence zone begins around Rollingstone (50kms North of Townsville) and ends around Mackay or just South. That is a massive area of convergence (approx 450kms) Here in Townsville we have recieved an official total of 173mm in the 24hrs to 9AM today. Unofficial totals in some of our suburbs are up over 200mm with the highest total at 243mm. At my place I recieved 202mm. Numerous roads are under as heavy rain continues to fall. Rivers are beginning to get frighteningly close to breaking their banks. The worrying thing is that a substantial amount of rain is also falling in the catchments, and this looks to continue for at least 24 hours. I have recieved 32mm since 9AM (I write this at 11:30AM)this morning, the Bureau has recieved around 15mm. The convergence zone is not moving, therefore we are in for more of the same for at least the next 48 hours. The chance exists that we may get close to our annual average of rainfall (1100mm) in four or five days. Ah the wet season is finally here!!!!! I have attached the latest forecast for Townsville and our area below. I'll keep you all posted on the worsening conditions. HERBERT AND LOWER BURDEKIN DISTRICT Rain areas and isolated thunderstorms. Further moderate to heavy falls particularly south of Rollingstone producing localised flooding in low lying areas, as well as local rises and some minor flooding in coastal streams south from about Townsville including the Bohle and Haughton Rivers. A flood warning is current for the Don River. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds. Outlook for Saturday ... Rain areas, isolated thunderstorms with local heavy falls. IDQ1005008 TOWNSVILLE Rain periods with local thunder. Further moderate to heavy falls producing localised flooding and traffic disabilities. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds. Outlook for Saturday ... Similar. CHEERS: Chris +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [202.139.125.41] From: "stuart hely" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 04:53:30 +0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 14 Feb 2002 04:53:31.0143 (UTC) FILETIME=[8CA0A970:01C1B513] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I like it! >From: "michael king" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future >Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 12:18:19 +1100 > _________________________________________________________________ Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com From aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Wed, 13 Feb 2002 18:34:56 -0800 Received: from [199.172.62.20] by hotmail.com (3.2) with ESMTP id MHotMailBE346CD10066400438ADC7AC3E1455E10; Wed, 13 Feb 2002 18:32:57 -0800 Received: (from daemon at localhost) by europe.std.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) id UAA22443 for aussie-weather-outgoing; Wed, 13 Feb 2002 20:26:52 -0500 (EST) Received: from TheWorld.com (pcls2.std.com [199.172.62.104]) by europe.std.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id UAA17474 for ; Wed, 13 Feb 2002 20:18:26 -0500 (EST) Received: from hotmail.com (f74.law11.hotmail.com [64.4.17.74]) by TheWorld.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id UAA12837 for ; Wed, 13 Feb 2002 20:18:25 -0500 Received: from mail pickup service by hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC; Wed, 13 Feb 2002 17:18:19 -0800 Received: from 152.91.9.46 by lw11fd.law11.hotmail.msn.com with HTTP; Thu, 14 Feb 2002 01:18:19 GMT X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 12:18:19 +1100 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/html Message-ID: X-OriginalArrivalTime: 14 Feb 2002 01:18:19.0868 (UTC) FILETIME=[7CE871C0:01C1B4F5] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Precedence: list Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

 

Thanks for the warning Patrick.  I'll make a note in my diary, and make sure I bring my Ouija board inside, so it doesn't get damaged by any stormy weather.

>From: "Patrick Tobin"
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future
>Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2002 03:25:21
>
>I have been studying the astrological charts and am now going to go
>out on a
>major limb here. You can all quote me on this..
>
>A major southern ocean low is set to pass very close to South East
>Australia
>between the 14th and 17th of August this year. It will have a
>significant
>impact on Victoria bringing gales to the coast and higher ranges.
>The charts
>show lots of fuzzy white which I take to mean lots of snow on the
>ranges and
>I predict hail showers near the coast.
>
>Even Canberra will see some snow (either on the nearby ranges or
>perhaps
>lower down) from this system.
>
>Patrick
>
>
>
>_________________________________________________________________
>Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device:
>http://mobile.msn.com
><< message3.txt >>


MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: Click Here
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "dann weatherhead" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Claudia - the future Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 16:37:01 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Welcome back to the list Patrick. Long time no hear!
 
I have always appreciated your contributions from the Australia's Capital Territory.
 
Hope you are enjoying the Canberra heat!
 
dann
From: "Laurier Williams" To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" Subject: aus-wx: NSW Central Tablelands Weather Briefing page Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 18:28:22 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I've done a final reformat on the Sydney Weather Briefing page on Australian Weather News, and generated the first clone -- a weather briefing page for the NSW Central Tablelands. The new format is kinder for those folk still working on 600x800 screens (about 55% of my visitors). It also allows you to align locations precisely as you click between many of the graphics. Any feedback on the new format would be appreciated, as well as information on useful local (district forecast level) sites, which I'll be hunting for as I complete the briefing pages for about 60 forecast districts around the country. The NSW Southern Tablelands/Canberra is the next region to get the treatment, followed by the Illawarra/South Coast then the Hunter. Cheers Laurier Laurier Williams Australian Weather News http://www.australianweathernews.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "dann weatherhead" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 18:36:24 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Part 1 of my report can be found here: http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2002/February8-2.htm Cheers dann __________________________ Daniel Weatherhead Blaxland, NSW weatherhead at ozemail.com.au SYDNEY STORM CHASERS www.sydneystormchasers.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p42-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.140.42] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 18:58:10 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Dann, http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/Daniel/2002/02-08-02-09.jpg Now is that a corkscrew or what..... Wow!!!!!!!!! Jimmy Deguara At 06:36 PM 14/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Part 1 of my report can be found here: > >http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2002/February8-2.htm > >Cheers > >dann > >__________________________ >Daniel Weatherhead >Blaxland, NSW >weatherhead at ozemail.com.au >SYDNEY STORM CHASERS >www.sydneystormchasers.com > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 22:09:10 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - host1.ns4ua.com X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - world.std.com X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [0 0] / [0 0] X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - ozthunder.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Matt, Jimmy and Dan All I can say is I am glad I got my pictures up first, as I would be now too embarasssed to post now. Your pictures are excellent and its great to see that almost everyone got something. Michael +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 22:13:26 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Embarrased!!! If I lived in wollongong I would have died seeing such a crisp side anvil overhead! I await Anthonys photographs with great anticipation as he was chasing the cell in whichI saw the huge wall cloud at work! Matthew Smith Michael Thompson wrote: > Matt, Jimmy and Dan > > All I can say is I am glad I got my pictures up first, as I would be now too > embarasssed to post now. > > Your pictures are excellent and its great to see that almost everyone got > something. > > Michael > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p42-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.140.42] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 22:46:50 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Michael and Matt, I also emphasise your points: this is not about people's nicest photographs although it seemed that way. To me it is about people taking photographs of nice events. So those who were lucky to be in the correct area had better opportunity. Your pics Michael are again an example of the severity of the storm. What I liked about chasing right around the country is that we now have covered some of the events from several angles rather than all meeting up at one place and taking the same pictures. Science is definitely the winner in this case (umm and so are the photography shops). Jimmy Deguara At 10:13 PM 14/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Embarrased!!! If I lived in wollongong I would have died seeing such a crisp >side anvil overhead! > >I await Anthonys photographs with great anticipation as he was chasing the >cell >in whichI saw the huge wall cloud at work! > >Matthew Smith > >Michael Thompson wrote: > > > Matt, Jimmy and Dan > > > > All I can say is I am glad I got my pictures up first, as I would be > now too > > embarasssed to post now. > > > > Your pictures are excellent and its great to see that almost everyone got > > something. > > > > Michael > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "W.A. \(Bill\) Webb" To: "AusWx at world" Subject: aus-wx: Bit of rain about Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 11:46:42 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi folks, The drought has finally broken in Proserpine - and how! Yesterday morning (130202) I checked my rain gauge at 0630 EST and wrote down "trace". The same time this morning, 102 mm and pouring down. By 0900 today, all school kids had been sent home, the Bruce H'way is cut North of town, road to Airlie Beach cut by flooding, and I've just checked the gauge again to record 166.5 mm in the 4.5 hours to 1100 - and STILL pouring down. Flood warnings out for the Don (Bowen), Proserpine and Pioneer (Mackay) Rivers. Reports I've had this morning from farmers in the district indicate substantially higher falls than I have recorded. From the charts and radar, I see no end to the rain before tomorrow when it may reduce to showers only. However, as we've experienced in the past when the monsoon is around, conditions can change rapidly and dramatically. It seems a difficult time for forecasters. The BoM have discounted Claudia's effect on Qld, but for us it appears to have dragged the active monsoon trough South far enough to create a convergence zone on the Qld central coast between the north westerlies and the south easter from the high down south (with a little help from a small low off Townsville). The outlook seems to be for a developing low north east of here by tomorrow (the same low pressure area I referred to above?), so we could finish up with a bit of a blow and more rain on top of the deluge we currently experience. Any thoughts/comments on the conditions from fellow weather watchers would be appreciated. Slosh! Bill in Proserpine. PS Tried to send this 1130EST 140202, but the server is down - probably under water. Had to send later. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bit of rain about Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 02:08:30 +1000 (EST) From: chris.nitsopoulos at jcu.edu.au User-Agent: IMP/PHP IMAP webmail program 2.2.7 X-Originating-IP: 137.219.16.102 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Bill I too have seen this forecast about the Low, the Bureau are trying to keep it under wraps because it's unlikely to develop and they don't want to start a panic because it's so close to the coast. The low can be seen vaguely on radar just to the NE of Townsville. As I wrote earlier yesterday we got just over 200mm here in Townsville and we are up over 100 already (at 2:00AM) There has been a report of 470mm I think just to the North of Mackay. Some of our suburbs are over 150mm for this 24hr period add to that over 200mm from yesterday and we have almost recieved our annual rainfall for 2001 in two days. Otherwise here In Townsville things have eased a little but they look to be picking up on radar as the convergence is readily visible (Showers from the East are colliding with showers from the West and then moving towards the South. The effects appear to be increasing in intensity at this moment.] Another Low exists around 12 or 13 south and 158E, it is unclear as to its future as it is a very weak system, but with the current monsoon intensity, it could be a cyclone by the time I wake up. (I wish!!) CHEERS: Chris > Hi folks, > > The drought has finally broken in Proserpine - and how! > > Yesterday morning (130202) I checked my rain gauge at 0630 EST and > wrote > down "trace". > > The same time this morning, 102 mm and pouring down. > > By 0900 today, all school kids had been sent home, the Bruce H'way is > cut > North of town, road to Airlie Beach cut by flooding, and I've just > checked > the gauge again to record 166.5 mm in the 4.5 hours to 1100 - and > STILL > pouring down. Flood warnings out for the Don (Bowen), Proserpine and > Pioneer > (Mackay) Rivers. Reports I've had this morning from farmers in the > district > indicate substantially higher falls than I have recorded. From the > charts > and radar, I see no end to the rain before tomorrow when it may reduce > to > showers only. However, as we've experienced in the past when the monsoon > is > around, conditions can change rapidly and dramatically. It seems a > difficult > time for forecasters. > > The BoM have discounted Claudia's effect on Qld, but for us it appears > to > have dragged the active monsoon trough South far enough to create a > convergence zone on the Qld central coast between the north westerlies > and > the south easter from the high down south (with a little help from a > small > low off Townsville). > > The outlook seems to be for a developing low north east of here by > tomorrow > (the same low pressure area I referred to above?), so we could finish > up > with a bit of a blow and more rain on top of the deluge we currently > experience. > > Any thoughts/comments on the conditions from fellow weather watchers > would > be appreciated. > > Slosh! > Bill in Proserpine. > > PS Tried to send this 1130EST 140202, but the server is down - > probably > under water. Had to send later. > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: W NSW To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 11:31:39 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com ATM: A very lightning-active storm (cluster) is hiding in a radar hole near Wilcannia, W NSW. Seconday convection has been forming over the last hour along lines to the NW and SW of the Wilcannia storms. The SW line has a good cross-component of the mid-level flow, more likely to keep storms isolated compared the NW "flank." LATER TODAY: The upper levels show an approaching shortwave progged to provide 30+ knots over W/C VIC and SW NSW by 06Z this afternoon. BL moisture in W NSW is outstanding with surface dewpoints remaining in the 15-20 C range in C/N parts of W NSW despite temperatures approaching 30 C at the surface (deep moisture!!). Surface flow is 15-20 knots from the N through most of W NSW, promising a decent anticlockwise hodograph when coupled with the shortwave flow aloft. The current convection should provide a sure play as it provides outflow boundaries --> surface forcing. The surface data don't resolve/indicate any signifant boundaries further S, where the flow regime improves. I am monitoring the area Broken Hill - Cobar - Balranald - Mildura for possible (left-moving) supercells later in the day. General thunderstorms should spread well beyond that region into VIC, which has its usual moisture problems.... NW NSW has enough moisture for a good lightning show and plenty of rain as well. More to come... Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 11:21:11 +0930 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Phil Bagust Subject: Re: aus-wx: SA Tornado? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all Nicely aligned NS trough moving through eastern SA starting to spout some tasty looking action, especially near Bordertown at the moment. It's fast moving though, so unless there are some SA chasers already out there it's over to the Victorian contingent. Virga aplenty around Adelaide this morning, but dry lower air put paid to any actual rain. More interestingly, I've just heard a report on the radio of a 'mini-tornado' unroofing 4 houses in Pt Neil on the coast of Eyre Peninsula at about 5am this morning. One person is in hospital apparently. Witnesses describe dbris all over the road and out to sea - but since I doubt there were any storms in the area at that time (or were there?) perhaps straight line winds???? Phil +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: NSW/VIC To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 13:08:07 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com NSW: W/SW NSW continues to look good for supercells today. A mature storm has grown from the SW "flank" of the "Wilcannia cell". The new cell is situated between Menindee and Ivanhoe (NSW). No one on this list lives there, so I will continue my powertalk without inhibitions :) The cell's lightning rate is quite nice indeed. The Mildura radar has the new cell track almost due East and assigns to it a reflectivity of ~50 dBZ at a range of ~220 km [ughh - beam width of several kilometres!]. I hypothesise that we might be looking at a left-moving supercell here. I even imagine to see a very deep inflow notch on the NW side consistent with cyclonic mid-level rotation. In the absence of obs we might never know what it really was. VIC: A squall line has entered W VIC. Upon crossing the border it lost a lot of its reflectivity, with only the N segement of the line (W of Ouyen - Mildura) remaining in the 40-50 dBZ range. The best BL ahead of the line should be the upslope regime in the Ararat - Maryborough region (and N/E from there). Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 15:33:59 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 15/02/2002 03:33:58 PM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com NSW Severe Thunderstorm Advice BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE Issued at 1409 on Friday the 15th of February 2002 The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Advice for people in the following weather forecast districts: Riverina west of a line through Tocumwal to Narrandera Lower Western Upper Western west of Brewarrina This advice cancels and replaces the advice issued at 1204. It is valid until 7 pm and should not be used after this time. Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of these are expected to be severe, bringing very heavy rainfall, damaging winds and possibly large hailstones. Its seems like a real good afternoon /night heading into western NSW. It could be a long night tonight here at work if it moves into our area. Dave ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: aus-wx: Spectacular line on Victorian radar To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 15:54:52 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com One of the most spectacular and coherent lines of storms I've ever seen is currently advancing across the Victorian landscape, stretching all the way from the Murray to Cape Otway. Very black out to the west of Melbourne now - the storms are in the Ballarat area according to radar. Have a look at the 256km Melbourne radar if you get a chance. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "MAc schools send" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: NSW/VIC Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 15:56:57 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Harald Richter Sent: Friday, 15 February 2002 1:08 PM To: Aussie Weather Subject: aus-wx: NSW/VIC NSW: W/SW NSW continues to look good for supercells today. A mature storm has grown from the SW "flank" of the "Wilcannia cell". The new cell is situated between Menindee and Ivanhoe (NSW). No one on this list lives there, so I will continue my powertalk without inhibitions :) The cell's lightning rate is quite nice indeed. The Mildura radar has the new cell track almost due East and assigns to it a reflectivity of ~50 dBZ at a range of ~220 km [ughh - beam width of several kilometres!]. I hypothesise that we might be looking at a left-moving supercell here. I even imagine to see a very deep inflow notch on the NW side consistent with cyclonic mid-level rotation. In the absence of obs we might never know what it really was. VIC: A squall line has entered W VIC. Upon crossing the border it lost a lot of its reflectivity, with only the N segement of the line (W of Ouyen - Mildura) remaining in the 40-50 dBZ range. The best BL ahead of the line should be the upslope regime in the Ararat - Maryborough region (and N/E from there). Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Here in sunny Palinyewah (try and find it on a map.....and if you do let me know) the squall hit just after 2:00 p.m. with strong winds, dust, heavy rain accompanied by thunder and lightning. The temp dropped from around 35 to 23 while the dew point rose from 18 to 21 b/t 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Also dropped 13mm at home in Merbein) Greg Stewart +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 16:14:17 +1100 From: Paul Mirtschin X-Mailer: The Bat! (v1.53d) To: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Spectacular line on Victorian radar Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Blair Trewin Says: > One of the most spectacular and coherent lines of storms I've ever > seen is currently advancing across the Victorian landscape, stretching > all the way from the Murray to Cape Otway. Saw a very similar line of activity about 6 years ago... Nice rolling green clouds that day. Kept my CFA brigade very busy. -------------------------------------- Paul Mirtschin - Ph 0414 658 174 Designer - Writer paul at nothingdesign.com.au www.nothingdesign.com.au Not to be taken internally, literally or seriously. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "W.A. \(Bill\) Webb" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bit of rain about Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 15:13:28 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Chris and All, Looks like all the action is up your way today Chris. Stay safe. To finish what I started yesterday on local rain I finished up with 375mm for the 48 hours to 0630 this morning. Woke to a (visible) sunrise and ESE winds, and later fully overcast with the odd light shower about. Claudia finally let the trough loose. Reports from around the district range from 250 to 450. Water everywhere. The barra and the prawns will be on the move! And I'll be moving after them. Regards, Bill in Proserpine. ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 2:08 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bit of rain about > > Hi Bill > > I too have seen this forecast about the Low, the Bureau are trying to keep it > under wraps because it's unlikely to develop and they don't want to start a > panic because it's so close to the coast. The low can be seen vaguely on radar > just to the NE of Townsville. > > As I wrote earlier yesterday we got just over 200mm here in Townsville and we > are up over 100 already (at 2:00AM) There has been a report of 470mm I think > just to the North of Mackay. Some of our suburbs are over 150mm for this 24hr > period add to that over 200mm from yesterday and we have almost recieved our > annual rainfall for 2001 in two days. > > Otherwise here In Townsville things have eased a little but they look to be > picking up on radar as the convergence is readily visible (Showers from the > East are colliding with showers from the West and then moving towards the > South. The effects appear to be increasing in intensity at this moment.] > > Another Low exists around 12 or 13 south and 158E, it is unclear as to its > future as it is a very weak system, but with the current monsoon intensity, it > could be a cyclone by the time I wake up. (I wish!!) > > CHEERS: Chris > > > > Hi folks, > > > > The drought has finally broken in Proserpine - and how! > > > > Yesterday morning (130202) I checked my rain gauge at 0630 EST and > > wrote > > down "trace". > > > > The same time this morning, 102 mm and pouring down. > > > > By 0900 today, all school kids had been sent home, the Bruce H'way is > > cut > > North of town, road to Airlie Beach cut by flooding, and I've just > > checked > > the gauge again to record 166.5 mm in the 4.5 hours to 1100 - and > > STILL > > pouring down. Flood warnings out for the Don (Bowen), Proserpine and > > Pioneer > > (Mackay) Rivers. Reports I've had this morning from farmers in the > > district > > indicate substantially higher falls than I have recorded. From the > > charts > > and radar, I see no end to the rain before tomorrow when it may reduce > > to > > showers only. However, as we've experienced in the past when the monsoon > > is > > around, conditions can change rapidly and dramatically. It seems a > > difficult > > time for forecasters. > > > > The BoM have discounted Claudia's effect on Qld, but for us it appears > > to > > have dragged the active monsoon trough South far enough to create a > > convergence zone on the Qld central coast between the north westerlies > > and > > the south easter from the high down south (with a little help from a > > small > > low off Townsville). > > > > The outlook seems to be for a developing low north east of here by > > tomorrow > > (the same low pressure area I referred to above?), so we could finish > > up > > with a bit of a blow and more rain on top of the deluge we currently > > experience. > > > > Any thoughts/comments on the conditions from fellow weather watchers > > would > > be appreciated. > > > > Slosh! > > Bill in Proserpine. > > > > PS Tried to send this 1130EST 140202, but the server is down - > > probably > > under water. Had to send later. > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > > your > > message. > > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: VIC squall line To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 16:18:37 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com A squall line is moving E through Colac and Ballarat as I type. Some embedded cells are briefly reaching ~50 dBZ. With the squall line come 25-30+ knot surface winds and temperatures descending into the upper teens. My expectation is that the northern part of the line has a better chance to remain healthy due to better low-level moisture. Melbourne's surface dewpoint is only around the 10C mark, enough for a minor show. Surface winds behind (i.e. W of) the squall line tend back to northerlies, before a W push that is entering SW VIC is going to bring in more lasting cooler and drier air. All of SW/W NSW is awash with convection by now. These cells are generally far more intense than their VIC counterparts - courtesy of better moisture, I suppose. C NSW should have some fun later. Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Lindsay Smail" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Spectacular line on Victorian radar Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 16:13:20 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thunder at 4.10 pm in Geelong and several spots of precip. Wind swinging to SW. Strong gusts. Lindsay Smail. -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Blair Trewin Sent: Friday, 15 February 2002 2:55 PM To: Aussie Weather Subject: aus-wx: Spectacular line on Victorian radar One of the most spectacular and coherent lines of storms I've ever seen is currently advancing across the Victorian landscape, stretching all the way from the Murray to Cape Otway. Very black out to the west of Melbourne now - the storms are in the Ballarat area according to radar. Have a look at the 256km Melbourne radar if you get a chance. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ --- Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Lindsay Smail" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: VIC squall line Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 16:40:18 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Right on Harald. Still storms around Geelong but breaking up now. Lindsay Smail. -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Harald Richter Sent: Friday, 15 February 2002 3:19 PM To: Aussie Weather Subject: aus-wx: VIC squall line A squall line is moving E through Colac and Ballarat as I type. Some embedded cells are briefly reaching ~50 dBZ. With the squall line come 25-30+ knot surface winds and temperatures descending into the upper teens. My expectation is that the northern part of the line has a better chance to remain healthy due to better low-level moisture. Melbourne's surface dewpoint is only around the 10C mark, enough for a minor show. Surface winds behind (i.e. W of) the squall line tend back to northerlies, before a W push that is entering SW VIC is going to bring in more lasting cooler and drier air. All of SW/W NSW is awash with convection by now. These cells are generally far more intense than their VIC counterparts - courtesy of better moisture, I suppose. C NSW should have some fun later. Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ --- Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 18:05:40 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 15/02/2002 06:05:41 PM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com IDN28300 TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST NSW Severe Thunderstorm Advice BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE Issued at 1732 on Friday the 15th of February 2002 The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Advice for people in the following weather forecast districts: South West Slopes Riverina Lower Western east of a line through Menindee to Balranald Upper Western west of Brewarrina This advice cancels and replaces the advice issued at 15:57hrs. It is valid until 9 pm and should not be used after this time. Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon and into the evening. Some of these are expected to be severe, bringing damaging winds, very heavy rainfall and possibly large hailstones. ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp1.ihug.co.nz: Host p218-nas6.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.216.218] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 21:24:15 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Looks like a storm out of Tornado Alley. Superb. What would the cloud tops be on that storm...40,000ft? Steven W Auckland ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jimmy Deguara" To: Sent: Thursday, February 14, 2002 8:58 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: FEB 8 - Photos > Hi Dann, > > http://sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/Daniel/2002/02-08-02-09.jpg > > Now is that a corkscrew or what..... > > Wow!!!!!!!!! > > Jimmy Deguara > > At 06:36 PM 14/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: > >Part 1 of my report can be found here: > > > >http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2002/February8-2.htm > > > >Cheers > > > >dann > > > >__________________________ > >Daniel Weatherhead > >Blaxland, NSW > >weatherhead at ozemail.com.au > >SYDNEY STORM CHASERS > >www.sydneystormchasers.com > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Mark Hardy" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Spectacular line on Victorian radar Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 19:37:43 +1100 Organization: The Weather Company X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The VIC composite radar is well worth a peak as well: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/currentweather/StateRadar.jsp?state=vic Mark Hardy One of the most spectacular and coherent lines of storms I've ever seen is currently advancing across the Victorian landscape, stretching all the way from the Murray to Cape Otway. Very black out to the west of Melbourne now - the storms are in the Ballarat area according to radar. Have a look at the 256km Melbourne radar if you get a chance. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ --- Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.317 / Virus Database: 176 - Release Date: 21/01/2002 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Laurier Williams" To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" , "Aussie-DA Mailing List" , "Don White" , "Roger Badham" , "Ron and Sue Logan" Subject: aus-wx: Site outage Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 23:34:55 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I have just discovered that the FrontPage extensions on my australianweathernews.com website have become corrupt. This has been repaired by the system administrator, but I now need to reload several hundred megabytes of files which will take some time. Most of the fixed pages on the site will be accessible by about midday Saturday. Current data will become accessible as the fixed pages are uploaded. However, archive data will need to be recreated and uploaded, and this will take much of Saturday to achieve. CMSS archive data, however, should be available once the main archive page is uploaded. In a nutshell, things should be back to normal late Saturday, and I apologise for the interruption. Laurier Williams Australian Weather News http://www.australianweathernews.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 16 Feb 02 00:41:23 +1000 Subject: RE: aus-wx: VIC squall line Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Lindsay! 15 Feb 02 16:40, you wrote to All: LS> Right on Harald. Still storms around Geelong but breaking up now. LS> Lindsay Smail. There were storms approaching Torquay around 4:30PM with some lightning. Not long after that, the lightning stopped and it was just heavy rain all the way back to Melbourne (I left Torquay around 4:30). Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: aus-wx: Major rain event - severe flooding Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 00:32:30 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi everyone - all models indicate a serious rain event for Top End NT in the next few days. This is very important - Katherine is currently sitting just below flood level of 20m (thats huge!!) and with this additional rain, I think we will see Australia day 1998 revisited in a more severe way. :( Waiting.... Paul in Darwin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p308-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.141.54] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 06:42:58 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Major rain event - severe flooding Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Paul, I won't even pretend that I have been following the situation of the Top End but I do recall that it was not the best season from your e-mails early on. If I recall, 1979 was not the best start and then broke records. I was thinking this may happen this year. Jimmy Deguara At 12:32 AM 16/2/2002 +0930, you wrote: >Hi everyone - all models indicate a serious rain event for Top End NT in the >next few days. > >This is very important - Katherine is currently sitting just below flood >level of 20m (thats huge!!) and with this additional rain, I think we will >see Australia day 1998 revisited in a more severe way. > >:( > >Waiting.... > >Paul in Darwin > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Bussy" To: "aussie-weather" Subject: aus-wx: Vic storms Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 08:30:31 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I'm sure everyone would agree that last nights line of storms across all of Victoria was pretty impressive. I nearly wore a track in the carpet. Inside to check radars etc and back outside for a visual....
I watched in anticipation as it edged closer, it then saw me watching and fell apart ! Bugger. Did get some much needed rain though with 14.6mm here.
The DP is still on 20.3 here as it has been pretty well all night. Very muggy.
 
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Major rain event - severe flooding Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 12:02:28 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com HI Jimmy, The poor season really relates to the coast and adjacent areas. Inland NT has yet again had a year of record smashings..... Monsoonal flow really kicking in now - westerleys up to 30 or 40kmph indicative of the trough re-establishing and deepening in conjunction with that low. Most models have it moving westerly, some NW. If this occurs it could be a very serious situation for Katherine and surrounds. Rgds Paul Mossman NT State ASWA Rep email: ntstorms at bigpond.com MSN: ntstorms at hotmail.com ICQ: 111144666 Mobile: 0438024372 ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jimmy Deguara" To: Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 5:12 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Major rain event - severe flooding > Hi Paul, > > I won't even pretend that I have been following the situation of the Top > End but I do recall that it was not the best season from your e-mails early > on. If I recall, 1979 was not the best start and then broke records. I was > thinking this may happen this year. > > Jimmy Deguara > > At 12:32 AM 16/2/2002 +0930, you wrote: > >Hi everyone - all models indicate a serious rain event for Top End NT in the > >next few days. > > > >This is very important - Katherine is currently sitting just below flood > >level of 20m (thats huge!!) and with this additional rain, I think we will > >see Australia day 1998 revisited in a more severe way. > > > >:( > > > >Waiting.... > > > >Paul in Darwin > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Victorian ASWA meeting & annual barbeque. Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 17:22:11 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Afternoon, An enormous turnout at the February meeting beginning at the Pancake Parlour this morning followed by a great barbeque & the 7th(?) innings of the ASWA cricket match. 32 people turned up to enjoy the day with us. The youngest was 2 months & the greatest distance travelled was from Germany.... and we had about 8 new faces!! An enormous vote of thanks goes to Max King who flew down from Sydney to join us and stayed to do the cooking!! Thanks to all who participated in the discussions, showed their video, played a fantastic game of cricket & then helped clean up - a great day was had by all!! PS: who ended up with the apron? I have to return it to the Pancake Parlour........... Great to see you all. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Tropo stuff.QLD. Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 18:59:35 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Feb 2002 08:01:12.0931 (UTC) FILETIME=[1A00A330:01C1B6C0] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
A nice hot spot over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria this afternoon,with a huge outflow region and some rather good low to mid convergence keep an eye on this area.. regards Clyve H.
From: "David Carroll" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 19:03:41 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
IDN26000
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SYDNEY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE  Issued at 1853 on Saturday the 16th
of February 2002

The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm
Warning for the Sydney Metropolitan area as well as the following
Local Government Areas:

Gosford.


This warning is current until 8pm.

Large thunderstorm is currently located over northwestern Sydney and
is  forecast to move towards the north northeast reaching Hornsby,
Turramurra, Dural and Brooklyn areas within the next hour.

Large hailstones, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall are
possible.

Thunderstorms today have already produced large hail, very heavy
rainfall and damaging wind in Campbelltown and Liverpool areas.
 
If anyone is in Gosford area, pls report what they get.. thanks
 
Dave 
 
i have relos in this area.
 
 
From: "David Carroll" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA - West Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 19:04:46 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
IDN28400

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

NSW Severe Thunderstorm Advice
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1357 on Saturday the 16th of February 2002

The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm
Advice for people in the following weather forecast districts:

Sydney Metropolitan, Illawarra,Hunter south of a line
Singleton/Nelson Bay,Central West Slopes and Plains south of a line
Nyngan/Dubbo,Central Tablelands south of Mudgee,Lower Western east of
a line Wilcannia/Ivanhoe/Hillston, Upper Western east of a line
Tibooburra/Wilcannia and west of a line Brewarrina/Nyngan, Southern
Tablelands, South Coast,Riverina east of a line Hillston/Corowa,
South West Slopes.

This advice is valid until 7pm and it should not be used after this
time.

Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon and
evening. Some of these are expected to be severe bringing damaging
winds, very heavy rainfall and possibly large hail stones.
From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 19:15:16 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 
Paul Yole & Max King have reported that they flew around an awesome cell on their way into Sydney from Melbourne which may have produced a tornado!!  From the sounds of the organising that was going on as they arrived at Sydney airport - they've gone chasing.  Apparently planes were being delayed because of the storm.
 
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
 
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
 
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
 
 

IDN26000
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SYDNEY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE  Issued at 1853 on Saturday the 16th
of February 2002

<snip>

Large thunderstorm is currently located over northwestern Sydney and
is  forecast to move towards the north northeast reaching Hornsby,
Turramurra, Dural and Brooklyn areas within the next hour.

Large hailstones, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall are
possible.

Thunderstorms today have already produced large hail, very heavy
rainfall and damaging wind in Campbelltown and Liverpool areas.
 
<snip>
From: "Paul Yole" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: NSW STA Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 20:35:35 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey All, Well, we're currently out and about. A little more info. After departing Melbourne, we came across out first inkling of storms around the NSW/Vic border. We decided to rip the video cameras out and started filming. We came across out first storms from about Canberra. As we got closer to Sydney, it looked alot better. Then as we approached Sydney, the pilot (Who did an EXCELLENT job) started throwing the plane about wildly (A Boeing 767-300). In the end though, he had to land, in which we ended up flying directly through this cell, which we found out later, was tornadic. As we landed, we had CG's dropping around us. After being slightly delayed after arriving (They wouldn't let people out onto the ramp due to the lightning), we got into the terminal and found out that all departures had been delayed due to the storm. After getting to the car, we headed off in the general direction of the storms, and witnessed some awesome CG's, we had to break off to go and pick up one of Max's friends. Currently, we are heading towards Wentworthville, negotiating flooded roads, and with no power to the area (Including traffic lights) due to lightening hitting a sub station earlier. Will keep ya'll updated. PaulY -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 19:15 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA Paul Yole & Max King have reported that they flew around an awesome cell on their way into Sydney from Melbourne which may have produced a tornado!! From the sounds of the organising that was going on as they arrived at Sydney airport - they've gone chasing. Apparently planes were being delayed because of the storm. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- IDN26000 TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST SYDNEY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE Issued at 1853 on Saturday the 16th of February 2002 Large thunderstorm is currently located over northwestern Sydney and is forecast to move towards the north northeast reaching Hornsby, Turramurra, Dural and Brooklyn areas within the next hour. Large hailstones, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall are possible. Thunderstorms today have already produced large hail, very heavy rainfall and damaging wind in Campbelltown and Liverpool areas. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [62.7.135.233] From: "John Roenfeldt" To: Subject: aus-wx: Victoria Dust Storm Pics 6/1/02 Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 10:12:52 -0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Feb 2002 10:17:53.0697 (UTC) FILETIME=[320A3910:01C1B6D3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I have finished scanning my photos of the dust storm in Victoria. 
 
 
I have also added a few more photos to the Dust Devil gallery.
 
 
enjoy,
 
John Roenfeldt
 
 
From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropo stuff.QLD. Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 23:17:05 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Definitely worth watching......
 
from the JTWC Pacific advisory (ABPW) which was re-issued with this inclusion.......
 
AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 15.9S5 140.6E1, IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF UNORGANIZED, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. THE 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REGION IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR. 
 
Jane
    
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
 
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
 
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
 
 
 

 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 6:59 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Tropo stuff.QLD.

Hi all.
A nice hot spot over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria this afternoon,with a huge outflow region and some rather good low to mid convergence keep an eye on this area.. regards Clyve H.
From: "David Carroll" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: lost mobile Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 03:50:44 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
HI all..
 
anyone who may call my mobile 0408863956, pls hesitate at this stage as has been lost. 
 
thanks
 
Dave
 
 
From: "Glen O'Riley" To: , , Subject: RE: aus-wx: lost mobile Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 06:07:09 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Tried for you David, but Telstra advises that the phone is switched off or out of area.
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of David Carroll
Sent: Sunday, 17 February 2002 3:51 AM
To: Aussie Weather
Subject: aus-wx: lost mobile

HI all..
 
anyone who may call my mobile 0408863956, pls hesitate at this stage as has been lost. 
 
thanks
 
Dave
 
 
From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropo stuff.QLD. Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 10:20:20 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Morning all,
 
In the Gulf of Carpentaria, 93P is being monitored & this morning JTWC have a full set of images up for it.
 
Click on 93P.INVEST in the left hand frame for a colour IR image.  Radar shows the circulation tightening up also.
 
Centre Is (near the mouth of the McArthur River) has a pressure of 1000.6 at 8.30am & Mornington Is had a pressure of 1004.0.
 
Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
 
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
 
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
 
 
 

 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 11:17 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropo stuff.QLD.

Definitely worth watching......
 
from the JTWC Pacific advisory (ABPW) which was re-issued with this inclusion.......
 
AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 15.9S5 140.6E1, IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF UNORGANIZED, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. THE 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REGION IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR. 
 
Jane
    
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
 
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
 
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
 
 
 

 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 6:59 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Tropo stuff.QLD.

Hi all.
A nice hot spot over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria this afternoon,with a huge outflow region and some rather good low to mid convergence keep an eye on this area.. regards Clyve H.
From: "Laurier Williams" To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" Subject: aus-wx: New weather briefing page for Canberra and NSW Southern Tablelands Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 10:53:03 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The latest real-time weather briefing page is now available for Canberra, the ACT, the NSW Southern Tablelands and Snowy Mountains. Follow the Real time Weather Briefings link on the right hand side of http://australianweathernews.com. With larger numbers of district weather briefing pages soon to be available, a new, map-based navigation system has been added to the top left of each page. Click on the map, then click the area of your interest on the larger map that opens. If you click an area not yet available (currently much of Australia!), you'll get a list of the next Area Weather Briefings to be produced. The Briefings take some time to create, but the hit rates they are generating would suggest they are popular. Because the level of detail contained in each page is considerable, errors and omissions are a certainty. If you find errors or apparent nonsenses of any kind, or have suggestions for local area additions, please email me. Laurier Williams Australian Weather News http://www.australianweathernews.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au (Unverified) Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 11:19:03 +0930 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Phil Bagust Subject: Re: aus-wx: Indian ocean sea temps Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com http://www.spacer.com/news/antarctic-02b.html Question. Bearing in mind the findings shown in the link above - are Indian Ocean TC frequencies increasing? Is it just me or have there been an unusual number of Cat 4-5 Cyclones off the North West in the last few years? Statistical anomoly? Better detection? Or is something really happening here? Phil +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Clarke" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropo stuff.QLD. Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 11:42:29 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 17 Feb 2002 01:42:32.0616 (UTC) FILETIME=[5E0D7280:01C1B754] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Clyve
 
This one has captured my eye as well.
 
I wonder even if it doesn't develop into a TC (rather close to coast already) whether it may initially move in the NT and then get dragged to the SE across toward SE QLD. If this does happen, then this looks like the best chance for some decent rain down in our part of the world for a long long time.
 
However, if it follows the trend of that past couple of years it will keep on tracking westwards into WA and we will get diddly squit.
 
 
 
 
Regards
Simon
 
 
 
 
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropo stuff.QLD. Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 13:52:09 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 17 Feb 2002 02:53:44.0343 (UTC) FILETIME=[50334270:01C1B75E] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hello Simon and all.
A feature of this tropical disturbance is the rather large size of its influence, showing a huge area of upper divergence with very good outflow to the southeast through central and south-eastern Aus. The area of low to mid convergence is also large and somewhat disorganised although there is still good potential for this system over the next 6 to 18 hours, especially if the region of low level convergence becomes organised over the Gulf waters region. Another area of interest is a very positive convective region north and northeast of Fiji, this locality has been persistently active for a few days, the region though appears dominated by the upper equatorial jet moving from the east to the west around 5 south, there is however a strong low level north-easterly surge moving towards the equator from the northern hemisphere presently reaching the near equatorial regions at about 15 to 20 north, this surge may tighten up the ITCZ over this region as the low level pressure surge crosses the Equator over the next 2 or 3 days.. regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 12:42 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropo stuff.QLD.

Clyve
 
This one has captured my eye as well.
 
I wonder even if it doesn't develop into a TC (rather close to coast already) whether it may initially move in the NT and then get dragged to the SE across toward SE QLD. If this does happen, then this looks like the best chance for some decent rain down in our part of the world for a long long time.
 
However, if it follows the trend of that past couple of years it will keep on tracking westwards into WA and we will get diddly squit.
 
 
 
 
Regards
Simon
 
 
 
 
From: "Keith Barnett" To: "Weather list" Subject: aus-wx: The Sydney storm..some observations Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 14:43:49 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Wasn't that a doozy. As the power has only just come back on after 20 hours (in Seven Hills) and I've heard almost no news I don't know how widespread it all was except the news saying the Hills district and western suburbs were worst affected. No doubt other people have better observations but from here this thing first appeared near southeastern suburbs having developed between Bowral and Wollongong (radar). There was massive boiling updraft on its rear flank but then suddenly between 6 and 6.15 a secondary cell developed to its northwest probably southwest of Parramatta. It was this one that brought the winds. Although I recorded only 7.6mm of rain and no hail, the winds would have easily reached 140 km/hr from the southeast. People I know had not seen anything like it in 45 years in this area. The whole thing appeared to propagate in a northwesterly direction as it moved out of Sydney. There was still lightning north of Gosford and off the northern beaches 4 hours later. Because of the poor visibility I couldn't see much of the cloud except that we appeared only to be on the western end of it and from a brief glimpse I'd say it towered well over 40,000 feet. As it retreated the whole top of the storm was covered in pileus.
 
I wasn't able to get to the NSW ASWA meeting yesterday because of other commitments but I thought, what a day for a severe weather group to be having a meeting...
From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 15:13:11 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST NSW Severe Thunderstorm Advice BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE Issued at 1510 on Sunday the 17th of February 2002 This advice cancels and replaces the one issued earlier at 12:42pm. The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Advice for people in the following weather forecast districts: [Updated] Southern Tablelands north of Cooma, Illawarra west of a line Camden/Nowra, Central Tablelands, Hunter, Central West Slopes and Plains south of a line Nyngan/Dunedoo, South West Slopes. This advice is valid until 8pm and it should not be used after this time. Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon and evening. Some of these are expected to be severe, bringing damaging winds, very heavy rainfall and possibly large hailstones. -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Carl Skillern" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 16:56:05 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Can anyone confirm if and where hail has hit and whether it was big enough to cause damage to cars or not please.
 
Regards
Carl
-----Original Message-----
From: David Carroll <davidkc at hotkey.net.au>
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: 16 February, 2002 6:12
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA

IDN26000
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SYDNEY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE  Issued at 1853 on Saturday the 16th
of February 2002

The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm
Warning for the Sydney Metropolitan area as well as the following
Local Government Areas:

Gosford.


This warning is current until 8pm.

Large thunderstorm is currently located over northwestern Sydney and
is  forecast to move towards the north northeast reaching Hornsby,
Turramurra, Dural and Brooklyn areas within the next hour.

Large hailstones, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall are
possible.

Thunderstorms today have already produced large hail, very heavy
rainfall and damaging wind in Campbelltown and Liverpool areas.
 
If anyone is in Gosford area, pls report what they get.. thanks
 
Dave 
 
i have relos in this area.
 
 
From: "David Carroll" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 17:44:07 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
HI.
 
I have relatives living in Central Coast, no hail was reported in Narara, Avoca or Kincumber.  
 
Dave
 
33 mm rain though fell in area.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 5:56 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA

Can anyone confirm if and where hail has hit and whether it was big enough to cause damage to cars or not please.
 
Regards
Carl
-----Original Message-----
From: David Carroll <davidkc at hotkey.net.au>
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: 16 February, 2002 6:12
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA

IDN26000
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SYDNEY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE  Issued at 1853 on Saturday the 16th
of February 2002

The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm
Warning for the Sydney Metropolitan area as well as the following
Local Government Areas:

Gosford.


This warning is current until 8pm.

Large thunderstorm is currently located over northwestern Sydney and
is  forecast to move towards the north northeast reaching Hornsby,
Turramurra, Dural and Brooklyn areas within the next hour.

Large hailstones, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall are
possible.

Thunderstorms today have already produced large hail, very heavy
rainfall and damaging wind in Campbelltown and Liverpool areas.
 
If anyone is in Gosford area, pls report what they get.. thanks
 
Dave 
 
i have relos in this area.
 
 
From: "Glen O'Riley" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: NSW STA Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 18:01:58 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
nothing full stop near Taree, what breeze we are getting is not enough to register speed and the direction is changing every 30 seconds.
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Carl Skillern
Sent: Sunday, 17 February 2002 5:56 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA

Can anyone confirm if and where hail has hit and whether it was big enough to cause damage to cars or not please.
 
Regards
Carl
-----Original Message-----
From: David Carroll <davidkc at hotkey.net.au>
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: 16 February, 2002 6:12
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA

IDN26000
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SYDNEY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE  Issued at 1853 on Saturday the 16th
of February 2002

The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm
Warning for the Sydney Metropolitan area as well as the following
Local Government Areas:

Gosford.


This warning is current until 8pm.

Large thunderstorm is currently located over northwestern Sydney and
is  forecast to move towards the north northeast reaching Hornsby,
Turramurra, Dural and Brooklyn areas within the next hour.

Large hailstones, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall are
possible.

Thunderstorms today have already produced large hail, very heavy
rainfall and damaging wind in Campbelltown and Liverpool areas.
 
If anyone is in Gosford area, pls report what they get.. thanks
 
Dave 
 
i have relos in this area.
 
 
From: "Carolyn" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: The Sydney storm..some observations Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 18:08:40 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Keith,
Have just got home from Cooma, and travelled through the Liverpool area, and there were still trees uprooted everywhere, houses still in need of repair, power lines or phonelines down(difficult to see which while driving), and many sets of traffic lights still out.  The area is still a mess, and am not sure if it will be right before about 8pm.
 
A very tired
Carolyn
Hunter Valley
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 2:43 PM
Subject: aus-wx: The Sydney storm..some observations

Wasn't that a doozy. As the power has only just come back on after 20 hours (in Seven Hills) and I've heard almost no news I don't know how widespread it all was except the news saying the Hills district and western suburbs were worst affected. No doubt other people have better observations but from here this thing first appeared near southeastern suburbs having developed between Bowral and Wollongong (radar). There was massive boiling updraft on its rear flank but then suddenly between 6 and 6.15 a secondary cell developed to its northwest probably southwest of Parramatta. It was this one that brought the winds. Although I recorded only 7.6mm of rain and no hail, the winds would have easily reached 140 km/hr from the southeast. People I know had not seen anything like it in 45 years in this area. The whole thing appeared to propagate in a northwesterly direction as it moved out of Sydney. There was still lightning north of Gosford and off the northern beaches 4 hours later. Because of the poor visibility I couldn't see much of the cloud except that we appeared only to be on the western end of it and from a brief glimpse I'd say it towered well over 40,000 feet. As it retreated the whole top of the storm was covered in pileus.
 
I wasn't able to get to the NSW ASWA meeting yesterday because of other commitments but I thought, what a day for a severe weather group to be having a meeting...
From: "elizebeth wilson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 18:14:23 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
No Hail Tumbi Umbi area, strong winds, couple of trees uprooted.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 5:56 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA

Can anyone confirm if and where hail has hit and whether it was big enough to cause damage to cars or not please.
 
Regards
Carl
-----Original Message-----
From: David Carroll <davidkc at hotkey.net.au>
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: 16 February, 2002 6:12
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA

IDN26000
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SYDNEY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE  Issued at 1853 on Saturday the 16th
of February 2002

The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm
Warning for the Sydney Metropolitan area as well as the following
Local Government Areas:

Gosford.


This warning is current until 8pm.

Large thunderstorm is currently located over northwestern Sydney and
is  forecast to move towards the north northeast reaching Hornsby,
Turramurra, Dural and Brooklyn areas within the next hour.

Large hailstones, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall are
possible.

Thunderstorms today have already produced large hail, very heavy
rainfall and damaging wind in Campbelltown and Liverpool areas.
 
If anyone is in Gosford area, pls report what they get.. thanks
 
Dave 
 
i have relos in this area.
 
 
From: "Ben Tichborne" To: Subject: aus-wx: new EMCWF models Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 20:41:17 +1300 Organization: Private X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Seems like a shot of cool air should hit NZ from higher latitudes on Tuesday - in fact coming all the way from Alaska! BTW, having a hot day in Perth today? Must be a typical for Southern California in midsummer. LOL +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: new EMCWF models Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 17:17:13 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey Ben, Umm have you had a little to much afternoon delight today..... LOL. I think you mean Antartica? If it came from Alaska - well that would be very interesting! Paul Mossman NT State ASWA Rep email: ntstorms at bigpond.com MSN: ntstorms at hotmail.com ICQ: 111144666 Mobile: 0438024372 ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ben Tichborne" To: Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 5:11 PM Subject: aus-wx: new EMCWF models > Seems like a shot of cool air should hit NZ from higher latitudes on > Tuesday - in fact coming all the way from Alaska! BTW, having a hot day in > Perth today? Must be a typical for Southern California in midsummer. LOL > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32) Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 23:07:52 +1300 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: John Gaul Subject: Re: aus-wx: new EMCWF models Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 17:17 17/02/02 +0930, you wrote: >Hey Ben, > >Umm have you had a little to much afternoon delight today..... LOL. > >I think you mean Antartica? If it came from Alaska - well that would be very >interesting! > > >Paul Mossman >NT State ASWA Rep >email: ntstorms at bigpond.com >MSN: ntstorms at hotmail.com >ICQ: 111144666 >Mobile: 0438024372 >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Ben Tichborne" >To: >Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 5:11 PM >Subject: aus-wx: new EMCWF models > > >> Seems like a shot of cool air should hit NZ from higher latitudes on >> Tuesday - in fact coming all the way from Alaska! BTW, having a hot day in >> Perth today? Must be a typical for Southern California in midsummer. LOL No he means Alaska Check latest EMCWF charts !!! Either the continents have changed or the charts are up the wop! JohnGaul NZTS - more than just thunder +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 21:41:55 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: The Sydney storm..some observations Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Keith

The storm was huge! We were watching development at the ASWA meeting at my parents place in sydney and 9 of us decided to chase, viewed a very very nice wall cloud passing over the liverpool area before getting dumped on in a complete white out of rain and hail, we could not drive it was that heavy. There was obvious clockwise rotation, and wow after watching a few hours of storm video at a meeting (tornado video classics/sam barricklows 2001 chase highlights from america), and then chasing a supercell, we were all on a high that evening!!!)
Tree's bent in half as wind gusted over 100km/h ripped through. Large tree's uprooted EVERYWHERE, flash flooding all over the shop flooding roads, powerlines down in lots of places, cars crushed by tree's. Very spectacular supercell. I am surprised there was not much media coverage! Photo's up later this week sometime.
BTW we had no problems calling the Bureau and reporting what we saw, they were very friendly and were very interested!

Matthew Smith

Keith Barnett wrote:

Wasn't that a doozy. As the power has only just come back on after 20 hours (in Seven Hills) and I've heard almost no news I don't know how widespread it all was except the news saying the Hills district and western suburbs were worst affected. No doubt other people have better observations but from here this thing first appeared near southeastern suburbs having developed between Bowral and Wollongong (radar). There was massive boiling updraft on its rear flank but then suddenly between 6 and 6.15 a secondary cell developed to its northwest probably southwest of Parramatta. It was this one that brought the winds. Although I recorded only 7.6mm of rain and no hail, the winds would have easily reached 140 km/hr from the southeast. People I know had not seen anything like it in 45 years in this area. The whole thing appeared to propagate in a northwesterly direction as it moved out of Sydney. There was still lightning north of Gosford and off the northern beaches 4 hours later. Because of the poor visibility I couldn't see much of the cloud except that we appeared only to be on the western end of it and from a brief glimpse I'd say it towered well over 40,000 feet. As it retreated the whole top of the storm was covered in pileus. I wasn't able to get to the NSW ASWA meeting yesterday because of other commitments but I thought, what a day for a severe weather group to be having a meeting...
X-Originating-IP: [144.132.45.8] From: "Liam Domanski" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Images and chase report from the 7th are up! Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 22:37:25 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 17 Feb 2002 11:37:25.0748 (UTC) FILETIME=[78D12B40:01C1B7A7] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi people. My report and photos from the chase Macca and I did to West central Vic on the 7th is up. We ran into a possible HP Supercell to the east of Ballarat. Check it out here http://www.stormchasers.au.com/07_02_02ld.htm Enjoy! A big thanks to Jane for her work in putting the page together! Liam _________________________________________________________________ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: new EMCWF models Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 23:25:01 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening Paul & all, Have a look at the latest global image showing that cold surge coming south towards the equator from way up in the northern hemisphere!! There's a big family of lows between Japan & Alaska with pressures ranging from 983hPa to 992hPa with 2 of them being recent developments. SST's in the area are between 1C & 10C. http://marlin.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/globeflast.gif Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- ----- Original Message ----- From: "John Gaul" To: Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 9:07 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: new EMCWF models > At 17:17 17/02/02 +0930, you wrote: > >Hey Ben, > > > >Umm have you had a little to much afternoon delight today..... LOL. > > > >I think you mean Antartica? If it came from Alaska - well that would be very > >interesting! > > > > > >Paul Mossman > >NT State ASWA Rep > >email: ntstorms at bigpond.com > >MSN: ntstorms at hotmail.com > >ICQ: 111144666 > >Mobile: 0438024372 > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: "Ben Tichborne" > >To: > >Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 5:11 PM > >Subject: aus-wx: new EMCWF models > > > > > >> Seems like a shot of cool air should hit NZ from higher latitudes on > >> Tuesday - in fact coming all the way from Alaska! BTW, having a hot day in > >> Perth today? Must be a typical for Southern California in midsummer. LOL > > > No he means Alaska > Check latest EMCWF charts !!! > Either the continents have changed or the charts are up the wop! > > > JohnGaul > NZTS - more than just thunder > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ User-Agent: Microsoft-Outlook-Express-Macintosh-Edition/5.02.2022 Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 10:58:16 -0600 Subject: Re: aus-wx: new EMCWF models From: "Richard Holle" To: X-SLUIDL: 978E8FEC-D6844272-971643BB-0F3B3A25 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jane ONeill2/17/02 6:25 AMcadence at stormchasers.au.com > Evening Paul & all, > > Have a look at the latest global image showing that cold surge coming > south towards the equator from way up in the northern hemisphere!! > There's a big family of lows between Japan & Alaska with pressures > ranging from 983hPa to 992hPa with 2 of them being recent developments. > SST's in the area are between 1C & 10C. > > http://marlin.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/globeflast.gif > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "John Gaul" > To: > Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 9:07 PM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: new EMCWF models > > >> At 17:17 17/02/02 +0930, you wrote: >>> Hey Ben, >>> >>> Umm have you had a little to much afternoon delight today..... LOL. >>> >>> I think you mean Antartica? If it came from Alaska - well that would > be very >>> interesting! >>> >>> >>> Paul Mossman >>> NT State ASWA Rep >>> email: ntstorms at bigpond.com >>> MSN: ntstorms at hotmail.com >>> ICQ: 111144666 >>> Mobile: 0438024372 >>> ----- Original Message ----- >>> From: "Ben Tichborne" >>> To: >>> Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 5:11 PM >>> Subject: aus-wx: new EMCWF models >>> >>> >>>> Seems like a shot of cool air should hit NZ from higher latitudes > on >>>> Tuesday - in fact coming all the way from Alaska! BTW, having a hot > day in >>>> Perth today? Must be a typical for Southern California in > midsummer. LOL >> >> >> No he means Alaska >> Check latest EMCWF charts !!! >> Either the continents have changed or the charts are up the wop! >> >> >> JohnGaul >> NZTS - more than just thunder If I may add my 2 cents here, what you are seeing is a secondary lunar declinational tidal effect, (at aproximently 180 degrees latatude from this wave you will see another albait weaker one as well) if you go back through the loops over the past week you will see that these artic airmass has been heading your way (toward the equator) since the moon was at Maximum south on 02-09-02, and now have reached the ITCZ still carring a negative static charge (relative to the tropical air you usually have). A squall line is forming along the souther edge of its Pacific crossing. see> http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10?PHOT=yes&AREA=global/stitched &PROD=ir&NAV=global&CGI=global.cgi&ARCHIVE=Latest&MOSAIC_SCALE=15%&CURRENT=L ATEST.jpg The moon is now crossing the equator heading North, historically this period of time is when the 5 to 7 day forecasts fare the worst, because the inertial effects the models run on of are actually reversing direction as the moon crosses the equator. -- Richard Holle aerology at dustdevil.com http://www.aerology.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ User-Agent: Microsoft-Outlook-Express-Macintosh-Edition/5.02.2022 Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 14:09:44 -0600 Subject: aus-wx: Re:EMCWF models, lunar views my2 cents From: "Richard Holle" To: X-SLUIDL: 30EF3E48-114143CB-93217E62-E7E544D0 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Richard Holle2/17/02 10:58 AMaerology at dustdevil.com >>>>> Seems like a shot of cool air should hit NZ from higher latitudes >> on >>>>> Tuesday - in fact coming all the way from Alaska! BTW, having a hot >> day in >>>>> Perth today? Must be a typical for Southern California in >> midsummer. LOL >>> >>> >>> No he means Alaska >>> Check latest EMCWF charts !!! >>> Either the continents have changed or the charts are up the wop! >>> >>> >>> JohnGaul >>> NZTS - more than just thunder > If I may add my 2 cents here, what you are seeing is a secondary lunar > declinational tidal effect, (at aproximently 180 degrees longitude from this > wave you will see another albait weaker one as well) if you go back through > the loops over the past week you will see that these artic airmass has been > heading your way (toward the equator) since the moon was at Maximum south on > 02-09-02, and now have reached the ITCZ still carring a negative static > charge (relative to the tropical air you usually have). A squall line is > forming along the Southern edge of its Pacific crossing. see> > http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10?PHOT=yes&AREA=global/stitched > &PROD=ir&NAV=global&CGI=global.cgi&ARCHIVE=Latest&MOSAIC_SCALE=15%&CURRENT=L > ATEST.jpg The negitive current of free electrons can be see leaking out ahead of the front as featherly cirrus. > The moon is now crossing the equator heading North, historically this period > of time is when the 5 to 7 day forecasts fare the worst, because the > inertial effects the models run on are actually reversing direction as > the moon crosses the equator. (thought I should resend this as I had a brain fa** earlier and this needed corrections....) -- Richard Holle aerology at dustdevil.com http://www.aerology.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: Storm faults To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 10:45:29 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 18/02/2002 10:45:26 AM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com HI All. A busy time for us at work here this morning. Faults reported at Cowra , Caragabal, Judds Creek, Burruga (conductors down), Forbes (conductors down). Bathurst surrounding areas (trees on lines). still many faults being reported now in Orange area. I feel sorry for all those people in Sydney who wont get any power all week.. something like 100,000 people,. Dave ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: aus-wx: Heavy Townsville rain To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 11:05:49 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Noticed that Townsville managed to get 100mm+ on each of three successive days (Thursday-Saturday). I imagine this is rare, if not unprecedented there (or anywhere else in Australia outside the very wet coast south of Cairns), but I won't be able to check this until later in the week (I'm at a conference until Thursday). Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Tropo stuff. Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 11:32:25 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 18 Feb 2002 00:33:57.0848 (UTC) FILETIME=[F3DF6D80:01C1B813] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
The very persistent and interesting tropical complex over QLD is a system of Quantum potential, to pin point the centre/s of convective development is like hitting the gofer on the head at a fun parlour game i.e.. aim for one head and another pops up somewhere else!. Anyway,this area is still operating although a little weaker today,the centre of vorticity can be found northwest of Renner Springs, while another convective area is located over the eastern Kimberley region,the area north and northeast of Fiji still looks ok for potential over the next 1 to 3 days. regards Clyve H.
From: "Mark Hardy" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: new EMCWF models Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 20:01:07 +1100 Organization: The Weather Company X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Paul You should take a peak at the latest ECMWF chart to understand what Ben is joking about. The maps are all screwed up. :) Mark Hardy -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Paul Mossman Sent: Sunday, 17 February 2002 6:47 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: new EMCWF models Hey Ben, Umm have you had a little to much afternoon delight today..... LOL. I think you mean Antartica? If it came from Alaska - well that would be very interesting! Paul Mossman NT State ASWA Rep email: ntstorms at bigpond.com MSN: ntstorms at hotmail.com ICQ: 111144666 Mobile: 0438024372 ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ben Tichborne" To: Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 5:11 PM Subject: aus-wx: new EMCWF models > Seems like a shot of cool air should hit NZ from higher latitudes on > Tuesday - in fact coming all the way from Alaska! BTW, having a hot > day in Perth today? Must be a typical for Southern California in > midsummer. LOL > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 21:39:28 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - host1.ns4ua.com X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - world.std.com X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [0 0] / [0 0] X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - ozthunder.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I have a funny Ellerston story. The very first organised storm chase tour back in 1998. It was our last day, Jimmy, myself and Paul Yole had just parted with Clyve Herbert at Tamworth. It was a rather coldish October day with no storms. We had some time to kill and I have 4WD, so we headed to Nundle and Hanging Rock, then to Scone, but via Barry and Ellerston. Well the first few kilometres were OK, then we encountered a sign saying 4WD only. This is OK I have a large 4WD so we kept on to Barry. After going and up and down a large mountain we finally entered a valley. It was getting late and the road although not overly challenging was getting worse. In fact there was only one other recent set of tyre prints. Kangaroos were everywhere. We came to a river crossing, no bridge here, just a natural crossing. I remember saying to Jimmy and Paul that I hope that's the only one. I think there was at least another ten, all along the river getting deeper and wider. Finally on sunset we came across a cluster of rustic farm houses, the dualing banjos theme sprang to mind. We encountered a guy on a horse that looked rather scary, but asked anyway whether we were on the road out, he said yes. The road did improve. Further along we passed what looked like a set of barracks, it could have been something as innocent as as an old school, but being so isolated we had stopped thinking banjos and now were thinking para miltary camps. Just after dark we came across a massively floodlit compound. I mean floodlit as in like the night / day cricket. There were scary military looking signs on the gate and guards. Where the hell were we !!! The road improved yet again and we finally made Scone about 7pm. We told the motel owner of our experience and she laughed. What we had mistaken for a miltary camp was Kerry Packers Ellerston porperty. He must have been in judging by the security. Michael ----- Original Message ----- From: "B Groughan" To: Sent: Sunday, February 10, 2002 9:50 PM Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" > G'day > Ellerston is about half way between Scone and Glouster in the Hunter > district NSW. We ended up with about 70mm over 2 days. > > --- > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. > Checked by Expert Anti-Virus. > Version: 6.0.312 / Virus Database: 173 - Release Date: 12/31/01 > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Keith Barnett" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: The Sydney storm..some observations Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 21:38:51 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
That was probably what I saw from my place ie the rotation..and earlier I was nearly going to call Jimmy to let you all know what I could see from here with the initial storm that developed east of Bowral and got closer, but you could probably see it anyway. I was in the middle of doing things and didn't get to observe the later development much but it had a definite circular shape and rotation wouldn't have surprised me..there was all this rapid vertical condensation going on just ahead of it as well..wish I'd had a camera at the time, or a video,even better. The 'whiteout' (what brief glimpse I could get of it) was total..the sun was getting through in patches and magnifying the effect, the rain was moderately large drops with a whole heap of drizzle drops like a fine spray.I reckon that cell went from 6000  to 40000 feet in only 20 minutes.Interestingly enough its formation was preceded by the arrival of a fresh and gusty northeast seabreeze.I've no doubt that was the 'primer'.
The winds here I'm sure were well over 100 kms.I have never seen large branches down and whole trees uprooted out here before, and that's in 30 years.Damage was worse in lower parts of Seven Hills where it's more or less the same 'alley' as Greystanes, Girraween and Toongabbie for tornados and severe squalls.Seems the winds get trapped between surrounding hills and all hell breaks loose.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 9:41 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: The Sydney storm..some observations

Hi Keith

The storm was huge! We were watching development at the ASWA meeting at my parents place in sydney and 9 of us decided to chase, viewed a very very nice wall cloud passing over the liverpool area before getting dumped on in a complete white out of rain and hail, we could not drive it was that heavy. There was obvious clockwise rotation, and wow after watching a few hours of storm video at a meeting (tornado video classics/sam barricklows 2001 chase highlights from america), and then chasing a supercell, we were all on a high that evening!!!)
Tree's bent in half as wind gusted over 100km/h ripped through. Large tree's uprooted EVERYWHERE, flash flooding all over the shop flooding roads, powerlines down in lots of places, cars crushed by tree's. Very spectacular supercell. I am surprised there was not much media coverage! Photo's up later this week sometime.
BTW we had no problems calling the Bureau and reporting what we saw, they were very friendly and were very interested!

Matthew Smith

Keith Barnett wrote:

Wasn't that a doozy. As the power has only just come back on after 20 hours (in Seven Hills) and I've heard almost no news I don't know how widespread it all was except the news saying the Hills district and western suburbs were worst affected. No doubt other people have better observations but from here this thing first appeared near southeastern suburbs having developed between Bowral and Wollongong (radar). There was massive boiling updraft on its rear flank but then suddenly between 6 and 6.15 a secondary cell developed to its northwest probably southwest of Parramatta. It was this one that brought the winds. Although I recorded only 7.6mm of rain and no hail, the winds would have easily reached 140 km/hr from the southeast. People I know had not seen anything like it in 45 years in this area. The whole thing appeared to propagate in a northwesterly direction as it moved out of Sydney. There was still lightning north of Gosford and off the northern beaches 4 hours later. Because of the poor visibility I couldn't see much of the cloud except that we appeared only to be on the western end of it and from a brief glimpse I'd say it towered well over 40,000 feet. As it retreated the whole top of the storm was covered in pileus. I wasn't able to get to the NSW ASWA meeting yesterday because of other commitments but I thought, what a day for a severe weather group to be having a meeting...
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: N.T. Low. Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 22:22:53 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 18 Feb 2002 11:24:32.0961 (UTC) FILETIME=[D69CFB10:01C1B86E] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
I can't help but admire the spectacular monsoonal low over the top end of the Northern Territory at the moment, complete with a huge upper outflow support and strong low to mid level convergence, one can only imagine what would develop from this set up if it was over the ocean, with a major trough approaching from the west some of this moisture associated with the tropical low over the NT may spread south into south-eastern Aus on Wednesday, this should pose some interesting possibilities in respect to storm potential, keep watching regards Clyve H.
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria Dust Storm Pics 6/1/02 Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 22:39:33 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 18 Feb 2002 11:41:04.0283 (UTC) FILETIME=[257CB6B0:01C1B871] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hello John.
Your dust devil photos area remarkable, some of the structure you have captured show so much detail and careful study of some of the vortices show all sought's of complexities, I find the study of such vorticity whether in dust devils, tornadoes or waterspouts all show a linked story of existence and all contribute to the puzzle of solving the mystery of tornadoes.regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 9:12 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Victoria Dust Storm Pics 6/1/02

I have finished scanning my photos of the dust storm in Victoria. 
 
 
I have also added a few more photos to the Dust Devil gallery.
 
 
enjoy,
 
John Roenfeldt
 
 
X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p308-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.141.54] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 22:46:38 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Michael, Remember that all too well. I was also thinking lucky you went in to check the depth of water. It would have been up to my neck height!!!!!!!! Cheers Jimmy Deguara At 09:39 PM 18/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >I have a funny Ellerston story. The very first organised storm chase tour >back in 1998. It was our last day, Jimmy, myself and Paul Yole had just >parted with Clyve Herbert at Tamworth. It was a rather coldish October day >with no storms. We had some time to kill and I have 4WD, so we headed to >Nundle and Hanging Rock, then to Scone, but via Barry and Ellerston. > >Well the first few kilometres were OK, then we encountered a sign saying 4WD >only. This is OK I have a large 4WD so we kept on to Barry. After going and >up and down a large mountain we finally entered a valley. It was getting >late and the road although not overly challenging was getting worse. In fact >there was only one other recent set of tyre prints. Kangaroos were >everywhere. > >We came to a river crossing, no bridge here, just a natural crossing. I >remember saying to Jimmy and Paul that I hope that's the only one. I think >there was at least another ten, all along the river getting deeper and >wider. > >Finally on sunset we came across a cluster of rustic farm houses, the >dualing banjos theme sprang to mind. We encountered a guy on a horse that >looked rather scary, but asked anyway whether we were on the road out, he >said yes. > >The road did improve. Further along we passed what looked like a set of >barracks, it could have been something as innocent as as an old school, but >being so isolated we had stopped thinking banjos and now were thinking para >miltary camps. > >Just after dark we came across a massively floodlit compound. I mean >floodlit as in like the night / day cricket. There were scary military >looking signs on the gate and guards. Where the hell were we !!! > >The road improved yet again and we finally made Scone about 7pm. > >We told the motel owner of our experience and she laughed. What we had >mistaken for a miltary camp was Kerry Packers Ellerston porperty. He must >have been in judging by the security. > >Michael > > > > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "B Groughan" >To: >Sent: Sunday, February 10, 2002 9:50 PM >Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" > > > > G'day > > Ellerston is about half way between Scone and Glouster in the Hunter > > district NSW. We ended up with about 70mm over 2 days. > > > > --- > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. > > Checked by Expert Anti-Virus. > > Version: 6.0.312 / Virus Database: 173 - Release Date: 12/31/01 > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: another site for lightning detection. Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 08:29:50 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com People, thought you may be interested in the new site at Murdoch which plots lightning strikes around Australia. Could be worth book-marking. http://macserv.murdoch.edu.au:16080/blitz/ Regards, David Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: proof please? Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 08:38:14 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >If I may add my 2 cents here, what you are seeing is a secondary lunar >declinational tidal effect, (at aproximently 180 degrees latatude from this >wave you will see another albait weaker one as well) if you go back through >the loops over the past week you will see that these artic airmass has been >heading your way (toward the equator) since the moon was at Maximum south on >02-09-02, and now have reached the ITCZ still carring a negative static >charge (relative to the tropical air you usually have). A squall line is >forming along the souther edge of its Pacific crossing. see> >http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10?PHOT=yes&AREA=global/stitche d >&PROD=ir&NAV=global&CGI=global.cgi&ARCHIVE=Latest&MOSAIC_SCALE=15%&CURRENT= L >ATEST.jpg >The moon is now crossing the equator heading North, historically this period >of time is when the 5 to 7 day forecasts fare the worst, because the >inertial effects the models run on of are actually reversing direction as >the moon crosses the equator. >- -- >Richard Holle aerology at dustdevil.com http://www.aerology.com Richard, I challenge you to provide evidence to support your claim that "... historically this period of time is when the 5 to 7 day forecasts fare the worst, because the inertial effects the models run on of are actually reversing direction as the moon crosses the equator." If you do, I will be the first to eat humble pie! DJ Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [211.28.131.171] From: "Karl Lijnders" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: another site for lightning detection. Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 10:11:34 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 18 Feb 2002 23:11:34.0346 (UTC) FILETIME=[9BBAA2A0:01C1B8D1] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey DJ, Thanks for that, certainly have book marked it!!!:) Hope we get to see VIC covered on Wedensday:P:) Have a wonderful day. Karl:) >From: David Jones >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" >Subject: aus-wx: another site for lightning detection. >Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 08:29:50 +1100 > >People, thought you may be interested in the new site at Murdoch which >plots lightning strikes around Australia. Could be worth book-marking. > >http://macserv.murdoch.edu.au:16080/blitz/ > >Regards, > >David > >Dr David Jones > >Climate Analysis Section >National Climate Centre >Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 >GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 >Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 >email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ Join the world’s largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail. http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 11:43:42 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2002 00:45:13.0318 (UTC) FILETIME=[B0E5B860:01C1B8DE] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi 1998 chasers. I would have sent in Paul Yole to check the water!!!!, this first chase was very enjoyable and I have fond memories of it.regards Clyve H. ----- Original Message ----- From: Jimmy Deguara To: Sent: Monday, February 18, 2002 10:46 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" > Hi Michael, > > Remember that all too well. I was also thinking lucky you went in to check > the depth of water. It would have been up to my neck height!!!!!!!! > > Cheers > > Jimmy Deguara > > At 09:39 PM 18/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: > >I have a funny Ellerston story. The very first organised storm chase tour > >back in 1998. It was our last day, Jimmy, myself and Paul Yole had just > >parted with Clyve Herbert at Tamworth. It was a rather coldish October day > >with no storms. We had some time to kill and I have 4WD, so we headed to > >Nundle and Hanging Rock, then to Scone, but via Barry and Ellerston. > > > >Well the first few kilometres were OK, then we encountered a sign saying 4WD > >only. This is OK I have a large 4WD so we kept on to Barry. After going and > >up and down a large mountain we finally entered a valley. It was getting > >late and the road although not overly challenging was getting worse. In fact > >there was only one other recent set of tyre prints. Kangaroos were > >everywhere. > > > >We came to a river crossing, no bridge here, just a natural crossing. I > >remember saying to Jimmy and Paul that I hope that's the only one. I think > >there was at least another ten, all along the river getting deeper and > >wider. > > > >Finally on sunset we came across a cluster of rustic farm houses, the > >dualing banjos theme sprang to mind. We encountered a guy on a horse that > >looked rather scary, but asked anyway whether we were on the road out, he > >said yes. > > > >The road did improve. Further along we passed what looked like a set of > >barracks, it could have been something as innocent as as an old school, but > >being so isolated we had stopped thinking banjos and now were thinking para > >miltary camps. > > > >Just after dark we came across a massively floodlit compound. I mean > >floodlit as in like the night / day cricket. There were scary military > >looking signs on the gate and guards. Where the hell were we !!! > > > >The road improved yet again and we finally made Scone about 7pm. > > > >We told the motel owner of our experience and she laughed. What we had > >mistaken for a miltary camp was Kerry Packers Ellerston porperty. He must > >have been in judging by the security. > > > >Michael > > > > > > > > > > > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: "B Groughan" > >To: > >Sent: Sunday, February 10, 2002 9:50 PM > >Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" > > > > > > > G'day > > > Ellerston is about half way between Scone and Glouster in the Hunter > > > district NSW. We ended up with about 70mm over 2 days. > > > > > > --- > > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. > > > Checked by Expert Anti-Virus. > > > Version: 6.0.312 / Virus Database: 173 - Release Date: 12/31/01 > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Tropo stuff WA. Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 12:01:05 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2002 01:02:32.0858 (UTC) FILETIME=[1C82EFA0:01C1B8E1] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
The tropical low over the Northern Territory is still a potential risk especially if this system gets over the Indian Ocean off the Northwest of Aus, the low has a very strong divergent upper outflow support, at the moment the whole system is slowly edging westward. regards Clyve H.
From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: New weather briefing page for Canberra and NSW Southern Tablelands Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 11:30:09 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Laurier, Well done, had a quick look .Great to see us on deck too. I understand that we will have our own weather radar in the near future.Will be handy if Saturday's severe storms are any guide.A lot of trees blown over in the Holder and Queanbeyan areas and flash flooding.We missed the worst here(Gilmore) but the lightning was really something to see.My daughter was in Holder at a friend's place.Gave me a graphic description of the storm.They had no power all night and every light globe in the house blew!. regards Gavin O'Brien mrcenterprises at bigpond.com.au Ps Southside Weather has its own e-mail for weather related events at southsidewhrwatch at yahoo.com.au ----- Original Message ----- From: "Laurier Williams" To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 10:53 AM Subject: aus-wx: New weather briefing page for Canberra and NSW Southern Tablelands > The latest real-time weather briefing page is now available for Canberra, > the ACT, the NSW Southern Tablelands and Snowy Mountains. Follow the Real > time Weather Briefings link on the right hand side of > http://australianweathernews.com. > > With larger numbers of district weather briefing pages soon to be available, > a new, map-based navigation system has been added to the top left of each > page. Click on the map, then click the area of your interest on the larger > map that opens. If you click an area not yet available (currently much of > Australia!), you'll get a list of the next Area Weather Briefings to be > produced. > > The Briefings take some time to create, but the hit rates they are > generating would suggest they are popular. Because the level of detail > contained in each page is considerable, errors and omissions are a > certainty. If you find errors or apparent nonsenses of any kind, or have > suggestions for local area additions, please email me. > > Laurier Williams > Australian Weather News > http://www.australianweathernews.com > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: aus-wx: Vic Thoughts 19/2 and 20/2 Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 12:51:06 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2002 01:50:04.0492 (UTC) FILETIME=[C037C0C0:01C1B8E7] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Afternoon all,
 
Interesting happenings across Vic and S NSW as I type......
 
DP's are rising rapidly across Victoria with figures ranging between 12C and 18C.  Some stations have recorded some awesome increases in DP over the last 6 hrs (from 6am til 12pm) with the notable ones being Shepparton (up 6.5C) and Hay (up 7.0C). 
 
BoM going for a chance of low topped, non-severe storms on the E ranges of Vic in the area from Echuca - Eildon - Mallacoota but given the current mositure increases we could see that extend slightly further S into the Seymour - Yea - Mansfield area.  The sounding for YMML sounding this morning is almost very nice.  The biggest problem further S is likely to be the extremely dry air above 900mb (with a DP of -30C just above 900mb).  Further to the N and E this should be a tad more moist and more condusive for storm development. 
 
These marked increases in sfc mositure should make tomorrow more interesting but I think Melbourne could be seeing action too early for anything too serious (although with the progged shear severe storms are possible anywhere E of a line from Swan Hill - Stawell - Warnambool).  AVN is hinting at the best insatbility being in the NE of the state near the border with LI's of -6 to -8 and CAPE of 1600 -1800j/kg just over the border into the eastern parts of the Riverina.  Given this progged instability and the relatively warm upper level temps, AVN must be going for some decent mositure levels - possibly too much - but then given the increases today, things seem to fit a litle better.
 
I'll be chasing tomorrow - most likely in the area bounded by Echuca - Sepparton - Wangaratta - Albury - Wagga - Jerilderie.  My knowledge isn't overly extensive re: conditions required for squall line development but I think we could see that tomorrow (similar to last Friday).
 
Just my thoughts.
 
Regards,
 
 
Andrew McDonald
(Macca)       
From: David Findlay To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Test Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 12:22:12 +1000 X-Mailer: KMail [version 1.3.2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Hash: SHA1 Nobody probably cares, but I haven't been able to post for ages. Just testing to see if it works now. David -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: GnuPG v1.0.6 (GNU/Linux) Comment: For info see http://www.gnupg.org iD8DBQE8cbbYF2H7v0XOYBIRAj4PAJ92ZMZFfH0oEMXQZ5pqP2WZvFl4XgCglKVq z/DmKerPGwoh2Ce9YRL1sFw= =pvIE -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "MAc schools send" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Test Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 13:38:11 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com yeppa it works -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of David Findlay Sent: Tuesday, 19 February 2002 1:22 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Test -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Hash: SHA1 Nobody probably cares, but I haven't been able to post for ages. Just testing to see if it works now. David -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: GnuPG v1.0.6 (GNU/Linux) Comment: For info see http://www.gnupg.org iD8DBQE8cbbYF2H7v0XOYBIRAj4PAJ92ZMZFfH0oEMXQZ5pqP2WZvFl4XgCglKVq z/DmKerPGwoh2Ce9YRL1sFw= =pvIE -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [202.5.161.1] From: "David Sercombe" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Townsville rain Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 03:21:56 +0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2002 03:21:56.0594 (UTC) FILETIME=[95AFC520:01C1B8F4] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Maybe up near Dorrigo during the 2001 March floods?? There were reports of 300+mm up there and falls over 100mm were there for at least two days (I think) Noticed that Townsville managed to get 100mm+ on each of three successive days (Thursday-Saturday). I imagine this is rare, if not unprecedented there (or anywhere else in Australia outside the very wet coast south of Cairns), but I won't be able to check this until later in the week (I'm at a conference until Thursday). Blair _________________________________________________________________ Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [202.5.161.1] From: "David Sercombe" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Townsville rain Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 03:45:56 +0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2002 03:45:56.0903 (UTC) FILETIME=[F02D7B70:01C1B8F7] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I've just looked up Laurier Williams archives (thanks Laurier) and noted that Hyde St in Bellingen got 125.0, 166.0 and 170.0 over the three days from the 7th to the 9th of March. Note also that Hyde St got 97mm on the fourth day in a row!!! (1st bit from me) Maybe up near Dorrigo during the 2001 March floods?? There were reports of 300+mm up there and falls over 100mm were there for at least two days (I think) (from Blair) Noticed that Townsville managed to get 100mm+ on each of three successive days (Thursday-Saturday). I imagine this is rare, if not unprecedented there (or anywhere else in Australia outside the very wet coast south of Cairns), but I won't be able to check this until later in the week (I'm at a conference until Thursday). Blair _________________________________________________________________ Join the world’s largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail. http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Black hole low! Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 18:41:16 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2002 07:42:43.0853 (UTC) FILETIME=[042E03D0:01C1B919] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
A very nice cold air field over the Aus Bight at the moment, one of the coldest thermal troughs I have seen this time of the year at 500hpa just north of this rapidly deepening low which may fall below 960hpa tomorrow (Wed 20th Feb).With a bit of luck the strengthening jet north of this low may catch some of the moisture from northern Aus tonight and spread it south into SE Aus Wed and Thur.regards Clyve H.
From: "Simon Clarke" To: Subject: aus-wx: tropo stuff - TC Guilluame - pronounciation ? Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 17:40:01 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2002 07:40:26.0864 (UTC) FILETIME=[B2872700:01C1B918] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi
 
Has any one got a clue how to pronounce Guilluame ???? (GWEE-LOAM-EE or GWEE-LORM   who knows???)
 
I thought TC names were supposed to be easy.
 
Down to 920hpa earlier today. But no need to fear in Australia, just to far away in the Indian Ocean.
 
 
Thanks
Simon
Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 08:12:47 +0000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Norman Lynagh Subject: Re: aus-wx: tropo stuff - TC Guilluame - pronounciation ? X-Mailer: Turnpike (32) Version 4.00 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com In message <000a01c1b918$a4edb500$343832d2 at simon>, Simon Clarke writes > Hi >   > Has any one got a clue how to pronounce Guilluame ???? > (GWEE-LOAM-EE or GWEE-LORM   who knows???) >   > I thought TC names were supposed to be easy. >   It's a French name pronounced GEE-OHM (with a hard G as in GET) -- Norman. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Clarke" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: tropo stuff - TC Guilluame - pronounciation ? Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 18:35:35 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2002 08:35:40.0399 (UTC) FILETIME=[698C77F0:01C1B920] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thanks Norman I knew someone on this list would know. Regards Simon +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Clarke" To: Subject: aus-wx: Tropo stuff anti-cyclonic air-circulation Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 18:49:11 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2002 08:49:13.0264 (UTC) FILETIME=[4E0DD300:01C1B922] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
A question, maybe to Clyve
 
But have you noticed that unusual and very well defined and large area of clear air to the east of Fiji. It seems to have a circulation that would defy logic in its middle. (ie - clockwise outflow)
 
Any clues as to what is going on - anyone ? 
 
Thanks
Simon
X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32) Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 16:47:41 +1300 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: John Gaul Subject: Re: aus-wx: another site for lightning detection. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 08:29 19/02/02 +1100, you wrote: >People, thought you may be interested in the new site at Murdoch which >plots lightning strikes around Australia. Could be worth book-marking. > >http://macserv.murdoch.edu.au:16080/blitz/ > >Regards, > >David > >Dr David Jones I wish there was an accessible one here in New Zealand JohnGaul NZ Thunderstorm Soc +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Craig and Kelli" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: tropo stuff - TC Guilluame - pronounciation ? Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 21:21:14 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Very similar to Guillotine (Gee-o-teen)...most definately French Cheers, Craig. ----- Original Message ----- From: Norman Lynagh To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sent: Tuesday, 19 February, 2002 6:12 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: tropo stuff - TC Guilluame - pronounciation ? In message <000a01c1b918$a4edb500$343832d2 at simon>, Simon Clarke writes > Hi > > Has any one got a clue how to pronounce Guilluame ???? > (GWEE-LOAM-EE or GWEE-LORM who knows???) > > I thought TC names were supposed to be easy. > It's a French name pronounced GEE-OHM (with a hard G as in GET) -- Norman. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: aus-wx: Lightning tracking Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 22:58:38 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Evening all,
 
Have discovered a couple of people who haven't used their AM radios as lighting trackers so I thought we could put some hints up here, and some of the more experienced 'static' listeners might like to add their thoughts & techniques.......
 
For those who want to listen to lightning you can (depending on your radio), tune to somewhere low down on the AM frequency eg: 521 - 566 off a station, or if you have access to one, (shut up Macca, this isn't an 'old person's thing') use SW1 (shortwave 1) tuned to 90m - it gives you a very clear sound & is calculated to wake you up when a storm gets within 150km of your house (and the rest of the family too....)
 
The sharper the crackle the closer the lightning, but every radio is different (especially car radios) and it can take some practice to be able to calculate distances - some people are accurate to within 10kms!!!
 
Victorians - turn your radios on!!
 
Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
 
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
 
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
 
 
 

 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, February 19, 2002 6:41 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Black hole low!

Hi all.
A very nice cold air field over the Aus Bight at the moment, one of the coldest thermal troughs I have seen this time of the year at 500hpa just north of this rapidly deepening low which may fall below 960hpa tomorrow (Wed 20th Feb).With a bit of luck the strengthening jet north of this low may catch some of the moisture from northern Aus tonight and spread it south into SE Aus Wed and Thur.regards Clyve H.
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropo stuff anti-cyclonic air-circulation Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 23:06:24 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2002 12:07:53.0376 (UTC) FILETIME=[0EFE9200:01C1B93E] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Simon.
Your observation of this anticyclonic clear area over the central south Pacific is very interesting, infact there is another area of interest within the south Coral Sea,the region with the clear hole mentioned by you appears to be associated with a dominant high pressure cell particularly strong at 300hpa on the western and north-western flank of a surface high,there appears to be a marked 300hpa long wave trough between the southern Ocean extending northward to near Fiji. On the eastern side of this long wave trough is a strong tropical moisture plume extending southward from a massive convective area north and northeast of Fiji. At about 30 to 35 south this large moisture plume then moves around this upper anticyclone in a large anticyclonic upper cloud curve. There is a similar type of set up in the south Coral Sea with an upper high at 300hpa south of Willis Island except there is a rather odd upper cloud splotch just north of the north island of New Zealand, this splotch is the remnant of an outflow phase that originated from the tropical low over northern Aus a couple of days ago, we could go on writing forever trying to explain all that is going on around the globe...but I don't mind! regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, February 19, 2002 7:49 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Tropo stuff anti-cyclonic air-circulation

A question, maybe to Clyve
 
But have you noticed that unusual and very well defined and large area of clear air to the east of Fiji. It seems to have a circulation that would defy logic in its middle. (ie - clockwise outflow)
 
Any clues as to what is going on - anyone ? 
 
Thanks
Simon
From: "Nathan Thompson" To: Subject: aus-wx: Latest images on my website Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 22:47:09 +1030 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi,
 
I have the latest images for today of 19th of February for a thunderstorm and Cumulus/Cumulonimbus on the ranges.
 
 
We went to the view at next to the Netball court in Golden Grove, saw a thunderstorm to the east with possible slight white hailshaft but it most likely to be just heavy rain in one area imo. Dad saw a lightning and I missed seeing it as I was busy taking photos.
Then this stopped, while other cells gone up and down, few don't. Its about to get dark so I decided to stop taking and leave to go home. It was not bad today so far.
 
From Nathan.
From: "Paul Yole" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 23:17:48 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey guys, Geeze...thanks Clyve. Always send the young one in first to make sure it's safe...is that why I got the nick "Apprentice" ??? LOL. But I agree. Even though the storm situation wasn't all that good, it was a great time had and I'll always class it as one of my best times chasing. PaulY -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Clyve Herbert Sent: Tuesday, February 19, 2002 11:44 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" Hi 1998 chasers. I would have sent in Paul Yole to check the water!!!!, this first chase was very enjoyable and I have fond memories of it.regards Clyve H. ----- Original Message ----- From: Jimmy Deguara To: Sent: Monday, February 18, 2002 10:46 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" > Hi Michael, > > Remember that all too well. I was also thinking lucky you went in to check > the depth of water. It would have been up to my neck height!!!!!!!! > > Cheers > > Jimmy Deguara > > At 09:39 PM 18/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: > >I have a funny Ellerston story. The very first organised storm chase tour > >back in 1998. It was our last day, Jimmy, myself and Paul Yole had just > >parted with Clyve Herbert at Tamworth. It was a rather coldish October day > >with no storms. We had some time to kill and I have 4WD, so we headed to > >Nundle and Hanging Rock, then to Scone, but via Barry and Ellerston. > > > >Well the first few kilometres were OK, then we encountered a sign saying 4WD > >only. This is OK I have a large 4WD so we kept on to Barry. After going and > >up and down a large mountain we finally entered a valley. It was getting > >late and the road although not overly challenging was getting worse. In fact > >there was only one other recent set of tyre prints. Kangaroos were > >everywhere. > > > >We came to a river crossing, no bridge here, just a natural crossing. I > >remember saying to Jimmy and Paul that I hope that's the only one. I think > >there was at least another ten, all along the river getting deeper and > >wider. > > > >Finally on sunset we came across a cluster of rustic farm houses, the > >dualing banjos theme sprang to mind. We encountered a guy on a horse that > >looked rather scary, but asked anyway whether we were on the road out, he > >said yes. > > > >The road did improve. Further along we passed what looked like a set of > >barracks, it could have been something as innocent as as an old school, but > >being so isolated we had stopped thinking banjos and now were thinking para > >miltary camps. > > > >Just after dark we came across a massively floodlit compound. I mean > >floodlit as in like the night / day cricket. There were scary military > >looking signs on the gate and guards. Where the hell were we !!! > > > >The road improved yet again and we finally made Scone about 7pm. > > > >We told the motel owner of our experience and she laughed. What we had > >mistaken for a miltary camp was Kerry Packers Ellerston porperty. He must > >have been in judging by the security. > > > >Michael > > > > > > > > > > > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: "B Groughan" > >To: > >Sent: Sunday, February 10, 2002 9:50 PM > >Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" > > > > > > > G'day > > > Ellerston is about half way between Scone and Glouster in the Hunter > > > district NSW. We ended up with about 70mm over 2 days. > > > > > > --- > > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. > > > Checked by Expert Anti-Virus. > > > Version: 6.0.312 / Virus Database: 173 - Release Date: 12/31/01 > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Glen O'Riley" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lightning tracking Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 23:20:49 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
The standard 27mhz cb will tell you within about 50-100km in a decent base setup, this is what I used to use but my newer one doesn't seem to have as much trouble. Yes SW would give a good indication, some of the amateurs up here actually use 120m or something around there. Apparently the lower the frequency the further the static reception but this is not cast in stone. People with newer AM sets in their houses (ie, upper end amplifiers (especially those with Dolby 5.1) will have trouble picking up static as a lot of the new sets have a built in noise limiter/attenuator.
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
Sent: Tuesday, 19 February 2002 10:59 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Lightning tracking

Evening all,
 
Have discovered a couple of people who haven't used their AM radios as lighting trackers so I thought we could put some hints up here, and some of the more experienced 'static' listeners might like to add their thoughts & techniques.......
 
For those who want to listen to lightning you can (depending on your radio), tune to somewhere low down on the AM frequency eg: 521 - 566 off a station, or if you have access to one, (shut up Macca, this isn't an 'old person's thing') use SW1 (shortwave 1) tuned to 90m - it gives you a very clear sound & is calculated to wake you up when a storm gets within 150km of your house (and the rest of the family too....)
 
The sharper the crackle the closer the lightning, but every radio is different (especially car radios) and it can take some practice to be able to calculate distances - some people are accurate to within 10kms!!!
 
Victorians - turn your radios on!!
 
Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
 
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
 
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
 
 
 

 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, February 19, 2002 6:41 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Black hole low!

Hi all.
A very nice cold air field over the Aus Bight at the moment, one of the coldest thermal troughs I have seen this time of the year at 500hpa just north of this rapidly deepening low which may fall below 960hpa tomorrow (Wed 20th Feb).With a bit of luck the strengthening jet north of this low may catch some of the moisture from northern Aus tonight and spread it south into SE Aus Wed and Thur.regards Clyve H.
X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p308-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.141.54] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 23:26:14 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Clyve et al, Yes these memories will always be a special part of my life. It was great to meet new friends and in a way is when we went out and conquered the unknown. It was also about that time when this list really got going with anticipated interest. It was great to see this upon returning. I must say it was such a great emotional time for all. Jimmy Deguara At 11:43 AM 19/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Hi 1998 chasers. >I would have sent in Paul Yole to check the water!!!!, this first chase was >very enjoyable and I have fond memories of it.regards Clyve H. >----- Original Message ----- >From: Jimmy Deguara >To: >Sent: Monday, February 18, 2002 10:46 PM >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" > > > > Hi Michael, > > > > Remember that all too well. I was also thinking lucky you went in to check > > the depth of water. It would have been up to my neck height!!!!!!!! > > > > Cheers > > > > Jimmy Deguara > > > > At 09:39 PM 18/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: > > >I have a funny Ellerston story. The very first organised storm chase >tour > > >back in 1998. It was our last day, Jimmy, myself and Paul Yole had just > > >parted with Clyve Herbert at Tamworth. It was a rather coldish October >day > > >with no storms. We had some time to kill and I have 4WD, so we headed to > > >Nundle and Hanging Rock, then to Scone, but via Barry and Ellerston. > > > > > >Well the first few kilometres were OK, then we encountered a sign saying >4WD > > >only. This is OK I have a large 4WD so we kept on to Barry. After going >and > > >up and down a large mountain we finally entered a valley. It was getting > > >late and the road although not overly challenging was getting worse. In >fact > > >there was only one other recent set of tyre prints. Kangaroos were > > >everywhere. > > > > > >We came to a river crossing, no bridge here, just a natural crossing. I > > >remember saying to Jimmy and Paul that I hope that's the only one. I >think > > >there was at least another ten, all along the river getting deeper and > > >wider. > > > > > >Finally on sunset we came across a cluster of rustic farm houses, the > > >dualing banjos theme sprang to mind. We encountered a guy on a horse that > > >looked rather scary, but asked anyway whether we were on the road out, he > > >said yes. > > > > > >The road did improve. Further along we passed what looked like a set of > > >barracks, it could have been something as innocent as as an old school, >but > > >being so isolated we had stopped thinking banjos and now were thinking >para > > >miltary camps. > > > > > >Just after dark we came across a massively floodlit compound. I mean > > >floodlit as in like the night / day cricket. There were scary military > > >looking signs on the gate and guards. Where the hell were we !!! > > > > > >The road improved yet again and we finally made Scone about 7pm. > > > > > >We told the motel owner of our experience and she laughed. What we had > > >mistaken for a miltary camp was Kerry Packers Ellerston porperty. He must > > >have been in judging by the security. > > > > > >Michael > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >----- Original Message ----- > > >From: "B Groughan" > > >To: > > >Sent: Sunday, February 10, 2002 9:50 PM > > >Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain "Ellerston" > > > > > > > > > > G'day > > > > Ellerston is about half way between Scone and Glouster in the Hunter > > > > district NSW. We ended up with about 70mm over 2 days. > > > > > > > > --- > > > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. > > > > Checked by Expert Anti-Virus. > > > > Version: 6.0.312 / Virus Database: 173 - Release Date: 12/31/01 > > > > > > > > > > > > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of >your > > > > message. > > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of >your > > > message. > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > ----------------------------------------- > > Jimmy Deguara > > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > > > from > > Schofields, Sydney > > NSW Australia > > > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 20 Feb 02 01:20:58 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning tracking Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Jane! 19 Feb 02 22:58, you wrote to All: JO> The sharper the crackle the closer the lightning, but every radio is = JO> different (especially car radios) and it can take some practice to be JO> = able to calculate distances - some people are accurate to within JO> = 10kms!!! Hmm, I wonder is there's an easy way of measuring the static crashes in a cheap AM radio... Feed them to a PC and do a bit of data logging. Might have to do some tests during a storm on 1.8 or 3.5 MHz (yeah, I know, not quite in the same band... but the HF rig has a decent S meter :) ). JO> JO> Victorians - turn your radios on!! OK, I get the hint. :) Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 20 Feb 02 01:26:16 +1000 Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lightning tracking Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Glen! 19 Feb 02 23:20, you wrote to All: GR> The standard 27mhz cb will tell you within about 50-100km in a decent GR> base setup, this is what I used to use but my newer one doesn't seem I'd believe that. 3.5 MHz (80m) will give S9+40dB crashes from a decent system 500km away. Had that in Tasmania, was in central Tassie trying to contact Melbourne at night, having to contend with static crashes from a system in Bass Strait. That's another point, the range of radio tracking will vary from daytime to night time. Range will be considerably greater during the night on bands below around 10 MHz. This is due to the D layer absorption which severaly attenuates signals passing through the lower ionosphere during daylight hours. So anyone calibrating their radio should calibrate it during both daytime (sun above the horizon) and night time (sun below horizon) conditions. The same night I battled the static on 80m, I tuned to 40m (7 MHz). The static was somewhat less severe there, but still fairly strong. A few hours earlier, during daylight, there was almost no static (I has been listening to NZ stations working the USA while driving through central Tassie - not bad for a little mobile setup :) ). GR> to have as much trouble. Yes SW would give a good indication, some of GR> the amateurs up here actually use 120m or something around there. GR> Apparently the lower the frequency the further the static reception GR> but this is not cast in stone. People with newer AM sets in their GR> houses (ie, upper end amplifiers (especially those with Dolby 5.1) GR> will have trouble picking up static as a lot of the new sets have a GR> built in noise limiter/attenuator. -----Original Message----- From: GR> aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at GR> world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill Sent: Tuesday, 19 February 2002 GR> 10:59 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Lightning GR> tracking Hmm, most noise limiters are not particularly effective on lightning static, though the newer breed of DSP based systems may defy that trend. They tend to do best on noise like ignition static. However, given the more stringent requirements (audio quality wise) of a high end bradcast receiver and the power of modern DSP systems, I could be totally wrong on this one, as my experience with noise limiters/blankers is with analogue communications type systems (such as those found on CB and amateur gear). Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Townsville rain Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 01:42:51 +1000 (EST) From: chris.nitsopoulos at jcu.edu.au User-Agent: IMP/PHP IMAP webmail program 2.2.7 X-Originating-IP: 137.219.16.102 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Blair No This isn't unprecidented here in Townsville although the last time it happened was in our huge floods of 1998 where we had around 550mm (My own personal measurement read 729mm) on day 1, 220mm on Day 2 and 120 or so on day three. Another one you might want to look up is in the same year (1998) during the middle of the Dry season in August, an upper Low sat over the top of us for a few days and may have given us three days in a row over 100mm. The deluge that hit us paled into insignificance in comparison to the floods of 98. in a 72 hour period last week we recieved officialy around 470mm. Suburbs around the city recieved as high as 650mm. Areas just to the North e.g. Bluewater recieved over 750mm and areas to the South e.g Giru nearly 700mm so we didn't cop the worst of the rain from the latest burst of monsoonal weather. My rainfall totals in Cranbrook (about 10kms away from the Bureau site) for the rain incident last week were as follows: Day 1: 202mm Day 2: 177mm Day 3: 149mm Since the end of the major rain on Saturday, I have recieved a further 92mm up until 9AM Tuesday morning. This brings up a fairly impressive total for the week so far to: 620mm Blair, just guessing, I imagine this happens here in Townsville every few years, where the monsoon trough just sits there to our North and an area of convergence between the monsoonal Northerlies and the ridging SEasterlies just sits over the top of us. You are right though the norm is for this to occur between about Ingham to Cairns, not this far South. Interesting to note is that Farmers North of Ingham and up to Cairns are yet to see much rain at all this season, and they are desperately seeking a good season for their sugarcane crops. The north had a very poor 'wet' season last year and these blokes definately don't want another poor one this year. CHEERS: Chris Quoting Blair Trewin : > Noticed that Townsville managed to get 100mm+ on each of > three successive days (Thursday-Saturday). > > I imagine this is rare, if not unprecedented there (or anywhere > else in Australia outside the very wet coast south of Cairns), > but I won't be able to check this until later in the week > (I'm at a conference until Thursday). > > Blair > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Susan Puddifer" To: Subject: aus-wx: Re: Interesting cloud formation down south Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 12:23:40 -0800 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All Long time since I posted but, extenuating circumstances Looking at the BOM radar latest image for 17.32 UTC 19/2/02, there is a really interesting corkscrew cloud formation well south of Australia. What exactly is it? Susan +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Interesting cloud formation down south Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 08:10:19 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2002 21:11:44.0706 (UTC) FILETIME=[08C86220:01C1B98A] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Susan. Not sure if you were looking at the radar or were you looking at the sat pic?, The large 'corkscrew area of cloud well south of Australia around 45 south is a very intense and nasty low pressure system with a central pressure very close to 960hpa presently here in Geelong about 1000hpa. regards Clyve H. ----- Original Message ----- From: Susan Puddifer To: Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2002 7:23 AM Subject: aus-wx: Re: Interesting cloud formation down south > Hi All > > Long time since I posted but, extenuating circumstances > > Looking at the BOM radar latest image for 17.32 UTC 19/2/02, there is a > really interesting corkscrew cloud formation well south of Australia. What > exactly is it? > > Susan > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Vic obs. Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 08:18:10 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2002 21:19:34.0594 (UTC) FILETIME=[20DB9A20:01C1B98B] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all hopefuls.
The cold front is into western Victoria at the moment (0800hrs) in a line running from west of Mildura to just near Cape Otway,dew points are rather high in the northeast of the state and only moderate ahead of the front through central areas, looks as if at this stage higher moisture levels wont interact with this front until it reaches  the east of Vic later today.There are some interesting obs here in Geelong though, surface winds are from about 360 to 010 15 to 25 knots temp 25c, bar 1002hpa, although the lower winds are rather strong the mid levels are remarkable slow with only very slow movement of the Alto cumulus from a bearing of about 320 to 330 degrees. regards Clyve Herbert.
X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.19] From: "Kevin Phyland" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Huge cell! Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 08:35:28 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Feb 2002 21:35:28.0845 (UTC) FILETIME=[59A2BFD0:01C1B98D] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi every1, Looking to my NNE I can currently see some rock hard towering rear flanks of two very well organised thunderstorms. Radio was giving me bursts of static every couple of seconds. Storm may even have an overshoot as the cirrus anvil appears reasonably shallow... My luck I have to work. This storm complex is quite isolated and gives every impression of getting nasty. It's a ways off however (80 - 100 kms I guess). Cheers, Kevin from Wycheproof. 8.35 a.m. _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Glen O'Riley" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lightning tracking Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 09:03:25 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com When I was working with the coastal patrol at Forster, they had a newer feild programmable HF radio, can't remember who by, not ICOM or Yaesu anyway, but it had somesort of NB built in and got very little interference from lightening strikes on 2Mhz. -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Tony Langdon Sent: Wednesday, 20 February 2002 2:26 AM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lightning tracking Hello Glen! 19 Feb 02 23:20, you wrote to All: GR> The standard 27mhz cb will tell you within about 50-100km in a decent GR> base setup, this is what I used to use but my newer one doesn't seem I'd believe that. 3.5 MHz (80m) will give S9+40dB crashes from a decent system 500km away. Had that in Tasmania, was in central Tassie trying to contact Melbourne at night, having to contend with static crashes from a system in Bass Strait. That's another point, the range of radio tracking will vary from daytime to night time. Range will be considerably greater during the night on bands below around 10 MHz. This is due to the D layer absorption which severaly attenuates signals passing through the lower ionosphere during daylight hours. So anyone calibrating their radio should calibrate it during both daytime (sun above the horizon) and night time (sun below horizon) conditions. The same night I battled the static on 80m, I tuned to 40m (7 MHz). The static was somewhat less severe there, but still fairly strong. A few hours earlier, during daylight, there was almost no static (I has been listening to NZ stations working the USA while driving through central Tassie - not bad for a little mobile setup :) ). GR> to have as much trouble. Yes SW would give a good indication, some of GR> the amateurs up here actually use 120m or something around there. GR> Apparently the lower the frequency the further the static reception GR> but this is not cast in stone. People with newer AM sets in their GR> houses (ie, upper end amplifiers (especially those with Dolby 5.1) GR> will have trouble picking up static as a lot of the new sets have a GR> built in noise limiter/attenuator. -----Original Message----- From: GR> aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at GR> world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill Sent: Tuesday, 19 February 2002 GR> 10:59 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Lightning GR> tracking Hmm, most noise limiters are not particularly effective on lightning static, though the newer breed of DSP based systems may defy that trend. They tend to do best on noise like ignition static. However, given the more stringent requirements (audio quality wise) of a high end bradcast receiver and the power of modern DSP systems, I could be totally wrong on this one, as my experience with noise limiters/blankers is with analogue communications type systems (such as those found on CB and amateur gear). Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aus Wx" Subject: aus-wx: Victorian update Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 11:23:28 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, The front has stalled along the west coast of Victoria & appears to be in the same position as it was at 7am. The wind change has yet to reach Ballarat & parts NE of there are still relishing respectable dewpoints in the teens. Have spoken to Macca (who's out) & Nick (who's not) & they are keeping an eye on the north central & north eastern parts of the state. Lightning atm is along the Murray. A nice cell went across the Bay earlier & intensified as it moved east - got a couple of shots of it from the roof. What amazed me was the speed it went up at. Enjoy the day..... Jane ------------------------------------ Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 01:06:41 +0000 (GMT) From: Andrew Boskell Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian update + Tas To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com G'day Jane and All, Thunderstorms are currently moving along the North Coast - some pink on the radar in the far NW - missed most of the activity due to being stuck at my desk! Regards Andrew. --- Jane ONeill wrote: > Morning all, > > The front has stalled along the west coast of > Victoria & appears to be in > the same position as it was at 7am. The wind change > has yet to reach > Ballarat & parts NE of there are still relishing > respectable dewpoints in > the teens. Have spoken to Macca (who's out) & Nick > (who's not) & they are > keeping an eye on the north central & north eastern > parts of the state. > Lightning atm is along the Murray. > > A nice cell went across the Bay earlier & > intensified as it moved east - got > a couple of shots of it from the roof. What amazed > me was the speed it went > up at. > > Enjoy the day..... > > Jane > ------------------------------------ > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > --------------------------------------- > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather > your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ===== Andrew Boskell "Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!" __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Everything you'll ever need on one web page from News and Sport to Email and Music Charts http://uk.my.yahoo.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: big spiralling S Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 12:27:59 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 20 Feb 2002 01:27:59.0965 (UTC) FILETIME=[D526B8D0:01C1B9AD] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Check out the latest satellite picture.  Join up the Monsoonal low (along the cloud band) with the deep low in the Bight.  There's a certain symmetry there.  Looks like a big 'S' with the end tails of the 'S' spiralling inwards.  Picturesque!

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDX1124.shtml



Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com.
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Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 02:15:33 +0000 (GMT) From: Andrew Boskell Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian update + Tas Updated To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com G’day All, Well, a rather active cell moved through Burnie around 12:30pm and lightning struck Round Hill, which is about 1km from my workplace - made a few work mates run! :-) Another cell to the S/E had a greenish look about it and rather active lightning. The forecast this morning stated that thunderstorms were possible in the N/E so I didn’t really expect to see any action here. Most of the activity formed around my work place for once, which made the lunch break pretty interesting. -- Andrew Boskell wrote: > G'day Jane and All, > > Thunderstorms are currently moving along the North > Coast - some pink on the radar in the far NW - > missed > most of the activity due to being stuck at my desk! > > Regards > > Andrew. > > > --- Jane ONeill wrote: > > > Morning all, > > > > The front has stalled along the west coast of > > Victoria & appears to be in > > the same position as it was at 7am. The wind > change > > has yet to reach > > Ballarat & parts NE of there are still relishing > > respectable dewpoints in > > the teens. Have spoken to Macca (who's out) & > Nick > > (who's not) & they are > > keeping an eye on the north central & north > eastern > > parts of the state. > > Lightning atm is along the Murray. > > > > A nice cell went across the Bay earlier & > > intensified as it moved east - got > > a couple of shots of it from the roof. What > amazed > > me was the speed it went > > up at. > > > > Enjoy the day..... > > > > Jane > > ------------------------------------ > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > --------------------------------------- > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather > > your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > ===== > Andrew Boskell > > "Some people are weather wise, others are > otherwise!" > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Everything you'll ever need on one web page > from News and Sport to Email and Music Charts > http://uk.my.yahoo.com > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather > your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ===== Andrew Boskell "Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!" __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Everything you'll ever need on one web page from News and Sport to Email and Music Charts http://uk.my.yahoo.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victorian update Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 15:27:16 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Afternoon all, Sat through a rather nice cell that went across Melbourne with the initial wind change at 2.15pm. Heavy rain, but no hail. It's getting darker & darker to the NW atm........ Tony Middleton is sitting in the Strezlecki Range down to the SE of Melbourne & has had small hail, 4 storms so far & this one still to come. Last heard Macca & Peter (?) were up near Shepparton, Another set of storms seems to be developing on a north south line Echuca - Melbourne & moving SE. Jane ------------------------------------ Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victorian update Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 16:33:15 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Again.... Looking at the Victorian & Australian images (visible, IR & water vapour) at 1330 & 1530, it appears that a secondary circulation may have developed over central & east central Victoria during today which complicated matters ... things still aren't moving quite the way they 'should' be............and there's another interesting 'cloud pattern' to the west of Melbourne on the 1530 image. Jane ------------------------------------ Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp1.ihug.co.nz: Host p124-nas11.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.213.124] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: aus-wx: How far away is that cb Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 19:17:30 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I am looking at a cb top to my sw which actually 200km away. I have seen a cb top 360km distant over NZ before.
I chased a stationary cb a few weeks back and to my amazement I had to travel 70km (as the crow flies )
to reach its base. And yet from my home this storm looked 30km away.
Steven W
Auckland  
 
 
From: "Bussy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian update Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 18:10:12 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Haven't looked at those. Too busy looking outside. :-) There's stuff developing everywhere. Right now from the north of here right around to the SE there's a massive system that is dumping huge rain I'd say but the radar isn't showing much. More stuff starting to pop up to the NW now. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2002 4:33 PM Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victorian update > Again.... > > Looking at the Victorian & Australian images (visible, IR & water vapour) at > 1330 & 1530, it appears that a secondary circulation may have developed over > central & east central Victoria during today which complicated matters ... > things still aren't moving quite the way they 'should' be............and > there's another interesting 'cloud pattern' to the west of Melbourne on the > 1530 image. > > Jane > > > ------------------------------------ > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > --------------------------------------- > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Victorian storm pics Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 19:13:41 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening all, first images are up of today. David Simpson has an amazing shot of an approaching gustfront taken from the eastern suburbs, & I've got a few images taken during my 'stormchase' during lunch http://www.stormchasers.au.com/20_02_02.htm More to come - there were lots of people out there amongst it today!! Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Peter Matters" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian update Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 19:38:54 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, back from a chase with Macca. Broadford-Nagambie-Shepp-Kilmore-Lancefield-Pretty Sally-Broadford. Some amazing captures to come, including frontal shelf cloud pics from above and below. Wait for Macca's report. PS. From the cell that was red west of Kilmore at 1400, a wall cloud was seen. Cheers Peter Matters(Didjman) ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aus Wx" Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2002 11:23 AM Subject: aus-wx: Victorian update > Morning all, > > The front has stalled along the west coast of Victoria & appears to be in > the same position as it was at 7am. The wind change has yet to reach > Ballarat & parts NE of there are still relishing respectable dewpoints in > the teens. Have spoken to Macca (who's out) & Nick (who's not) & they are > keeping an eye on the north central & north eastern parts of the state. > Lightning atm is along the Murray. > > A nice cell went across the Bay earlier & intensified as it moved east - got > a couple of shots of it from the roof. What amazed me was the speed it went > up at. > > Enjoy the day..... > > Jane > ------------------------------------ > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > --------------------------------------- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5 September 22, 2000 Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 20:28:35 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 20/02/2002 08:28:37 PM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Currently faults in Warren, Collie, Quambone areas, Forbes (pole down), Condobolin (pole down). Calls coming in for Grenfell area. Storms look to be heading towards Dubbo, Bathurst, Mudgee. Just had report of pole fire at Warren, most areas shld be islolated soon. IDN28300 TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST NSW Severe Thunderstorm Advice BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE Issued at 1946 on Wednesday the 20th of February 2002 The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Advice for people in the following weather forecast districts: Central West Slopes Central West Plains east of West Wyalong to Warren South West Slopes Riverina This advice is valid until 10pm and it should not be used after this time. Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon and into the evening. Some of these are expected to be severe bringing damaging winds. Thunderstorms today have already produced damaging winds at Trangie. ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: How far away is that cb Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 20:52:16 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - host1.ns4ua.com X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - world.std.com X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [0 0] / [0 0] X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - ozthunder.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Steven
 
I beleive you, I too have seen the very top of CB's just poking over the ocean horizon and then looking at sat pics to find them near 300kms distant.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2002 5:17 PM
Subject: aus-wx: How far away is that cb

I am looking at a cb top to my sw which actually 200km away. I have seen a cb top 360km distant over NZ before.
I chased a stationary cb a few weeks back and to my amazement I had to travel 70km (as the crow flies )
to reach its base. And yet from my home this storm looked 30km away.
Steven W
Auckland  
 
 
X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p764-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.143.2] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 20:51:25 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: Giudici Roberto Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I know this was discussed some time ago but I do not recall the final discussion and whether people believed it or not. Here is the person who sent the e-mail and photos. Jimmy Deguara >Delivered-To: jdeguara at j.pop.ihug.com.au >From: "giudici roberto" >To: >Subject: Giudici Roberto >Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2001 13:16:00 +0100 >Organization: Eurix >X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 > >I would like to show you and to know if you can pulish this word-wid >refernced photo taken in Greece during summer 2000. >http://www.astrogeo.va.it/immagini/cielo/giudici.htm >or >http://rams.atmos.colostate.edu/gallery/pages/waterspouts_jpg.htm >Tell me about it >Roberto ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p764-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.143.2] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 21:29:12 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Funnel Saturday 16th February storm Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, After sending my reply to weather forum about my doubts of tornadoes, I just got sent a few stills (quite clear ones too) one especially which shows a funnel under the rain free base region. It seems to agree to be consistent to the wall cloud region (I would say the second one) and there seems to be a rear flank downdraught. I am awaiting permission to be able to post them on here before I do and people can then comment. Jimmy Deguara ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Dave Ellem" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: A Bit of BoM Forecasting humour! Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 07:11:12 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Morning All!
Just ran through the morning forecast for the Northern Rivers and found this:
 
NORTHERN RIVERS
Thursday
High fire danger.
Cloud increasing with rain developing and chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
Very warm to hot and  humid with l moderate northwest to northeast winds.  
 
I'll keep a close eye out for that 1 moderate NW to NE wind!!
Have a good one!!
 
Dave Ellem,
Wollongbar,
Northern Rivers,
NE NSW
Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 07:51:06 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD/NE NSW TS Potential Today/Tomorrow Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I should probably leave this email blank, then it can be about as exciting as our storm potential for today and tomorrow! :) No - I shouldn't say that, but it doesn't look as good as it could :( The upper level temperatures could use a good dose of Victorianising - they're far too warm, more so over SE QLD than NE NSW. NE NSW would probably have a better chance of something through today/tomorrow as their 500mb temps are down towards -5/-6, where as SE QLDs are -4 (dropping down to -5 tonight (whooppee doo) according to AVN before warming back up to -4. The Skew-T shows this too, although in the low levels it's quite cool and unstable, looks more like a summer-Quidge Skew-T than a summer NE'ly one. It's too dry at the surface as well, DPs in the high teens for a potential storm situation in Feb is certainly nothing to rave about! And with the very warm upper temps, we'll need DPs well into the low 20s for anything substantial. That doesn't look like happening though. I think that the best chance will be pulse storms on the ranges...we may not even see anything in SE QLD today, only NE NSW (now if you wanted to go to the Mid North Coast, you'd be in for a better chance of storms (possibly even severe) - sort of Grafton and south, with a chance of normal TS up to the border and then onto the border ranges of NE NSW/SE QLD and then a chance of Cu (well not quite!) further north of there. A quick glance shows nice shear through the upper Hunter and Mid North Coast. But further north the upper temps just get too warm. SE QLD may actually have a better chance of TS tomorrow (Friday), the trough looks to slow down rapidly and almost stall on Friday. -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aus Wx" Subject: aus-wx: Monsoon low Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 09:18:06 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, Interesting to note that the low i n NW WA is developing a TC-like 'signature' even though it's still over land - although with the amount of rain they've had up there over the last couple of weeks, this statement could be debatable!! Worth watching as it keeps sliding slowly west....... Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Townsville rain To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 10:17:06 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I've had a chance to look things up now. 14-16 February was actually the third instance of three consecutive 100mm+ daily falls in Townsville, after 14-16 January 1953 and 23-25 March 1990. The 1953 event was particularly impressive with daily totals of 153.4, 184.2 and 346.7. Also had a look at Bellenden Ker. This station suffers severely from missed observations during wet periods (especially in the second half of the record), but still managed 5 consecutive 100+ days from 7-11 February 1977, then a 4-day total of 1103mm covering the period 12-15 February, so they could conceivably have had as many as 9. Blair > I've just looked up Laurier Williams archives (thanks Laurier) and noted > that Hyde St in Bellingen got 125.0, 166.0 and 170.0 over the three days > from the 7th to the 9th of March. Note also that Hyde St got 97mm on the > fourth day in a row!!! > > > (1st bit from me) > Maybe up near Dorrigo during the 2001 March floods?? There were reports of > 300+mm up there and falls over 100mm were there for at least two days (I > think) > > > (from Blair) > Noticed that Townsville managed to get 100mm+ on each of > three successive days (Thursday-Saturday). > > I imagine this is rare, if not unprecedented there (or anywhere > else in Australia outside the very wet coast south of Cairns), > but I won't be able to check this until later in the week > (I'm at a conference until Thursday). > > Blair > > > > > _________________________________________________________________ > Join the world’s largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail. > http://www.hotmail.com > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Chas & Helen Osborn" To: "Aussie weather" Subject: aus-wx: Strahan Weather Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 13:21:18 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hello Everyone
 
Its cold stream weather here at the moment. Temperature is 12C  at 1pm, with wind speeds 34knots gusting 44knots from the west. We also had a shower of hail around 11am. Maximum wave heights are 15m.
 
Chas
Strahan Tasmania
 
TASMANIAN COASTAL REPORTS
Issued at 1248 on Thursday the 21st of February 2002


CAPE SORELL
WIND: WSW  27KT,
RAIN                 
Wave rider, significant wave height:  7.3m
Maximum height over the past 3 hours:  15m
Period:  18 sec

MARRAWAH
NO REPORT

CAPE GRIM
WIND: W    38KT
 
MAATSUYKER IS
WIND: WNW  47KT,
SEA: VERY ROUGH, HEIGHT 6M,
SWELL: SW, HEAVY, HEIGHT OVER 4M,
VISIBILITY 3000M, SHOWERS              


LOW ROCKY PT
WIND: W    31KT


 
From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 21 Feb 02 13:15:20 +1000 Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lightning tracking Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Glen! 20 Feb 02 09:03, you wrote to All: GR> When I was working with the coastal patrol at Forster, they had a GR> newer feild programmable HF radio, can't remember who by, not ICOM or GR> Yaesu anyway, but it had somesort of NB built in and got very little GR> interference from lightening strikes on 2Mhz. Sounds like possibly a Codan or Barret. Nice commercial spec gear... and $$$$, but just the shot for the Outback. :) Never had the good fortune to use this class of radio though. :-( Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Webmaster at kgl900.com" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning tracking Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 14:21:24 +1100 Organization: www.kgl900.com X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Actually neither of the Codan or Barretts ship field programmable. Although, I dont know about Codan, I used to have a bit to do wth Barretts and they can be front proggramable, mainly just freq n basic stuff, cannot select mode on nornal programming. If ya got the software, which I have, you can open this up though. Barretts are a very nice radio, even though they may cost $$$$, they are still cheaper then Codan, and how much is ya life worth anyway? Stew Hello Glen! 20 Feb 02 09:03, you wrote to All: GR> When I was working with the coastal patrol at Forster, they had a GR> newer feild programmable HF radio, can't remember who by, not ICOM or GR> Yaesu anyway, but it had somesort of NB built in and got very little GR> interference from lightening strikes on 2Mhz. Sounds like possibly a Codan or Barret. Nice commercial spec gear... and $$$$, but just the shot for the Outback. :) Never had the good fortune to use this class of radio though. :-( Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp4.ihug.co.nz: Host p246-nas6.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.216.246] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: new EMCWF models Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 18:27:17 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi, Christchurch looks to be having a chilly summer. 13C yesterday, 16C today. Not Feb. Auckland gets it fine on a southerly but NE, low cloud, showers today. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ben Tichborne" To: Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 8:41 PM Subject: aus-wx: new EMCWF models > Seems like a shot of cool air should hit NZ from higher latitudes on > Tuesday - in fact coming all the way from Alaska! BTW, having a hot day in > Perth today? Must be a typical for Southern California in midsummer. LOL > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Tropical Aus and other bits and pieces. Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 16:52:47 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 21 Feb 2002 05:54:06.0973 (UTC) FILETIME=[2CA48AD0:01C1BA9C] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Ho all (I pressed the o instead of the i it looks ok so I left it be)
Our monsoonal low over the Kimberley is looking better all the time and is still edging westward ever closer to the open ocean, this system has fantastic upper support with strong divergence and a large south-eastward outflow feeding into the 'black hole' low south of Tasmania. If this 'atmospheric process' gets over the sea there is as strong possibility of a significant TC so keep looking. The area over the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria is also showing some activity with weak to moderate low to mid convergence but very limited upper outflow divergence, the area north of Fiji continues to be very convectively positive with a huge area of cloud which is also interacting with an upper mid latitude long wave trough. regards Clyve Herbert.
From: "Glen O'Riley" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lightning tracking Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 17:10:38 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Codan, that was the one. I would choose Barrett over Codan any day, my fav would probably be Yeasu FT100 & Alinco DX70-TH -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Webmaster at kgl900.com Sent: Thursday, 21 February 2002 2:21 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning tracking Actually neither of the Codan or Barretts ship field programmable. Although, I dont know about Codan, I used to have a bit to do wth Barretts and they can be front proggramable, mainly just freq n basic stuff, cannot select mode on nornal programming. If ya got the software, which I have, you can open this up though. Barretts are a very nice radio, even though they may cost $$$$, they are still cheaper then Codan, and how much is ya life worth anyway? Stew Hello Glen! 20 Feb 02 09:03, you wrote to All: GR> When I was working with the coastal patrol at Forster, they had a GR> newer feild programmable HF radio, can't remember who by, not ICOM or GR> Yaesu anyway, but it had somesort of NB built in and got very little GR> interference from lightening strikes on 2Mhz. Sounds like possibly a Codan or Barret. Nice commercial spec gear... and $$$$, but just the shot for the Outback. :) Never had the good fortune to use this class of radio though. :-( Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp2.ihug.co.nz: Host p181-nas11.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.213.181] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: another site for lightning detection. Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 20:51:53 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi john, The electricity dept monitor lightning across NZ. Wouldn't it be good to access this. ----- Original Message ----- From: "John Gaul" To: Sent: Tuesday, February 19, 2002 4:47 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: another site for lightning detection. > At 08:29 19/02/02 +1100, you wrote: > >People, thought you may be interested in the new site at Murdoch which > >plots lightning strikes around Australia. Could be worth book-marking. > > > >http://macserv.murdoch.edu.au:16080/blitz/ > > > >Regards, > > > >David > > > >Dr David Jones > > I wish there was an accessible one here in New Zealand > > JohnGaul > NZ Thunderstorm Soc > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp4.ihug.co.nz: Host p181-nas11.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.213.181] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: aus-wx: El Nino Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 21:07:10 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
As I understand it, we are entering an El Nino phase. Could the cool summer over southern Australia and NZ
be attributed to this?
From: "Bussy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: El Nino Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 19:38:46 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Being an absolute ignoramus among other things I have never watched El Nina or La Nina. El is less rain? La is more?
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, February 21, 2002 7:07 PM
Subject: aus-wx: El Nino

As I understand it, we are entering an El Nino phase. Could the cool summer over southern Australia and NZ
be attributed to this?
From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: A Bit of BoM Forecasting humour! Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 22:16:13 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - host1.ns4ua.com X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - world.std.com X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [0 0] / [0 0] X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - ozthunder.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
That 1 moderate could bring with it  " the cloud ".
 
Michael
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Dave Ellem
Sent: Thursday, February 21, 2002 7:11 AM
Subject: aus-wx: A Bit of BoM Forecasting humour!

Morning All!
Just ran through the morning forecast for the Northern Rivers and found this:
 
NORTHERN RIVERS
Thursday
High fire danger.
Cloud increasing with rain developing and chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
Very warm to hot and  humid with l moderate northwest to northeast winds.  
 
I'll keep a close eye out for that 1 moderate NW to NE wind!!
Have a good one!!
 
Dave Ellem,
Wollongbar,
Northern Rivers,
NE NSW
From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Summer in Tasmania Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 23:05:30 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The aviation forecast for Tasmania tonight reads.... AREA70 09:31 UTC, 21/02/2002 AMEND AREA FORECAST 211100 TO 212300 AREA 70 OVERVIEW: STRONG TO GALE FORCE W TO SW STREAM. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUD. SNSH IN S ABOVE 4500FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MOD/SEV LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE. 500hPa temps are progged at -21C!!!!!!!! Roll on winter... Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 21 Feb 02 23:57:06 +1000 Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lightning tracking Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Glen! 21 Feb 02 17:10, you wrote to All: GR> Codan, that was the one. I would choose Barrett over Codan any day, my GR> fav would probably be Yeasu FT100 & Alinco DX70-TH Depends what you want them for. The latter two are designed for a much different purpose. Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 21 Feb 02 23:55:00 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning tracking Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Webmaster at kgl900.com! 21 Feb 02 14:21, you wrote to All: W> If ya got the software, which I have, you can open this up though. W> Barretts are a very nice radio, even though they may cost $$$$, W> they are still cheaper then Codan, and how much is ya life worth W> anyway? Well, no argument there. If I was going bush in a 4WD, I know what sort of radio I'd like to have in there for life and death situations - namely the types we've been talking about - Codans and Barrets. :) Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 21 Feb 02 23:58:14 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: A Bit of BoM Forecasting humour! Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Michael! 21 Feb 02 22:16, you wrote to All: MT> That 1 moderate could bring with it " the cloud ". LOL, it could indeed... Be very careful, in case The Cloud spawns a tornado (or is that The Tornado?). ;-) Hehe, I remember that photo. :) Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 22:13:56 -0600 From: Sam Barricklow Organization: Home Page http://www.k5kj.net/ X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win95; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Michael Thompson , Aussie Weather Subject: aus-wx: [Fwd: Hail storm] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Can anyone help Lilly find the information she needs?

chadden wrote:

  Hello,  could you please assist?  In late December , just before Xmas there   was a short severe hail storm in Newcastle,   NSW  Could you give me the date of that storm?   It happened  just after 3pm  on either a Friday or a Monday.   Thanks and regardsLilly Email address is      chadden at kooee.com.au
From: "Glen O'Riley" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lightning tracking Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 01:19:52 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I have the software for the Barrett 900series, does that count???? -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Tony Langdon Sent: Friday, 22 February 2002 12:55 AM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning tracking Hello Webmaster at kgl900.com! 21 Feb 02 14:21, you wrote to All: W> If ya got the software, which I have, you can open this up though. W> Barretts are a very nice radio, even though they may cost $$$$, W> they are still cheaper then Codan, and how much is ya life worth W> anyway? Well, no argument there. If I was going bush in a 4WD, I know what sort of radio I'd like to have in there for life and death situations - namely the types we've been talking about - Codans and Barrets. :) Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp2.ihug.co.nz: Host p165-nas6.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.216.165] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: El Nino Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 07:35:36 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Bussy,
The names are of biblical origin. 
El nino brings a W/SW weather pattern to our latitudes, La Nina E/NE. Under El nino I would say Victorian weather
watchers will get an interesting winter.
I am guessing El Nino may already be here. The weather is like the economy, the experts have a habit of telling
us what we knew 3 months ago.
Bye
Steven W   
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussy
Sent: Thursday, February 21, 2002 9:38 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: El Nino

Being an absolute ignoramus among other things I have never watched El Nina or La Nina. El is less rain? La is more?
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, February 21, 2002 7:07 PM
Subject: aus-wx: El Nino

As I understand it, we are entering an El Nino phase. Could the cool summer over southern Australia and NZ
be attributed to this?
From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Tropical activity Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 06:31:16 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com JTWC is watching the area near the Cocos Islands..... AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS NEAR 13.6S0 103.4E8 APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PRESENT. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR. http://marlin.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/globeflast.gif ...and that monsoon low in WA isn't going away - it's still there & still moving slowly. to the tropical experts....what has caused the gap in convective activity north of PNG!!? Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 22:03:54 +0000 (GMT) From: Andrew Boskell Subject: Re: aus-wx: Summer in Tasmania To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com G’day Jane & All, We had a land gale warning issued late yesterday arvo warning of gusts up to 100 kph plus the possibility of some light highland snow. It is cool at the moment(9am), about 13C, but at least the wind has died off. Look’s like a good day for a stratocumulus chase actually! Andrew. --- Jane ONeill wrote: > The aviation forecast for Tasmania tonight reads.... > > AREA70 09:31 UTC, 21/02/2002 > AMEND AREA FORECAST 211100 TO 212300 AREA 70 > > OVERVIEW: > STRONG TO GALE FORCE W TO SW STREAM. SCATTERED > SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND > SOUTH WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUD. SNSH IN S ABOVE > 4500FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS > ELSEWHERE. MOD/SEV LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE. > > 500hPa temps are progged at -21C!!!!!!!! > > Roll on winter... > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather > your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ===== Andrew Boskell "Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!" __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Everything you'll ever need on one web page from News and Sport to Email and Music Charts http://uk.my.yahoo.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 202.12.87.169 X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 12:13:40 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" Subject: aus-wx: Summer? What summer? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Well, no real summer here, except for a few hot days (managed to spend a string of them on the beach! :) )... Looks like it might be winter travel to some exotic place to get some decent WX. ;) BTW, I have changed my email address as well. Slowly tidying up my many list subscriptions. :) X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 202.12.87.169 X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 12:23:55 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Summer? What summer? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 12:13 PM 22/02/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Well, no real summer here, except for a few hot days (managed to spend a >string of them on the beach! :) )... Looks like it might be winter travel >to some exotic place to get some decent WX. ;) Forgot to mention we did get some decent storms this year though, so some consolation. :) Now my sig should be working too. :) 73 de Tony, VK3JED http://www.qsl.net/vk3jed From: "Keith Barnett" To: "Weather list" Subject: aus-wx: Nowcasts Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 17:33:55 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
or I think that's what to call this..does anyone know where on the web to get what used to be the BoM's 'weather for the next few hours'  (exactly that, not the 24 hour and other forecasts)? It was on the old weatherzone site before it was upgraded..
Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 19:06:07 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nowcasts Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Keith

Ive looked for them also on the bom page when the old weather site went, but could not find them either.

Matt Smith

Keith Barnett wrote:

or I think that's what to call this..does anyone know where on the web to get what used to be the BoM's 'weather for the next few hours'  (exactly that, not the 24 hour and other forecasts)? It was on the old weatherzone site before it was upgraded..
From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Spin up Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 20:13:07 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening all, have a look at the spin-up that Luke Garde managed to grab a shot of last week as the front passed over the Bellarine Peninsula!! http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Feb02/0222lg01.JPG If you roll back and look at the image carefully, you can see the 'line' where agitated water meets calm water & the spin-up is on this line. Amazing stuff!!!! Thanks Luke!! -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p764-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.143.2] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 23:22:39 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, chadden at kooee.com.au From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: [Fwd: Hail storm] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi,

You will find the first of the chases ie 21st had hailstorms around Newcastle area.

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2001/docs/200112-04.htm

Jimmy Deguara

At 10:13 PM 20/2/2002 -0600, you wrote:
Can anyone help Lilly find the information she needs?

chadden wrote:
  Hello,  could you please assist?  In late December , just before Xmas there   was a short severe hail storm in Newcastle,   NSW  Could you give me the date of that storm?   It happened  just after 3pm  on either a Friday or a Monday.   Thanks and regardsLilly Email address is      chadden at kooee.com.au

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: aus-wx: Tropical Stuff Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 22:52:20 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

This may just confirm that the surge/pulse may hold its integrity.
 
 
Clyve your thoughts?
Paul Mossman
NT State ASWA Rep
email: ntstorms at bigpond.com
MSN: ntstorms at hotmail.com
ICQ: 111144666
Mobile: 0438024372
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, February 22, 2002 9:52 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: [Fwd: Hail storm]

Hi,

You will find the first of the chases ie 21st had hailstorms around Newcastle area.

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2001/docs/200112-04.htm

Jimmy Deguara

At 10:13 PM 20/2/2002 -0600, you wrote:
Can anyone help Lilly find the information she needs?

chadden wrote:
  Hello,  could you please assist?  In late December , just before Xmas there   was a short severe hail storm in Newcastle,   NSW  Could you give me the date of that storm?   It happened  just after 3pm  on either a Friday or a Monday.   Thanks and regardsLilly Email address is      chadden at kooee.com.au

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: aus-wx: Kimberley Low / Tropical stuff Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 22:47:56 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
HI all - looks like our friend the Monsoonal Low that has been around for well over 2 weeks (remembering its the same Low that developed near Port Keats some 14 days ago) is starting to loose its integrity. Deep convection is starting to dissapate and it looks like it may be being captured by mid-latitude systems - looks like its being sheared significantly.
 
Clyve your thoughts?
 
Nice pulse/suge of cross-equatorial W/NW'erlies near Java has potential - only question is will it be captured itself by the Low or continue moving eastwards? If it moves eastwards - watch it for TC development!
 
Rgds
Paul Mossman
NT State ASWA Rep
email: ntstorms at bigpond.com
MSN: ntstorms at hotmail.com
ICQ: 111144666
Mobile: 0438024372
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, February 22, 2002 9:52 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: [Fwd: Hail storm]

Hi,

You will find the first of the chases ie 21st had hailstorms around Newcastle area.

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2001/docs/200112-04.htm

Jimmy Deguara

At 10:13 PM 20/2/2002 -0600, you wrote:
Can anyone help Lilly find the information she needs?

chadden wrote:
  Hello,  could you please assist?  In late December , just before Xmas there   was a short severe hail storm in Newcastle,   NSW  Could you give me the date of that storm?   It happened  just after 3pm  on either a Friday or a Monday.   Thanks and regardsLilly Email address is      chadden at kooee.com.au

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: El Nino Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 21:55:02 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Steven, at present we are in a neutral phase .I doubt that the current ocean temperatures are the cause of the current relatively cool spell. In Canberra December was very warm as was the first half of January and oh so dry!  .The  record wet spell we have had was associated with with the change to a more normal summer pattern and a good feed in of tropical moisture . My figures here so far show near average temperatures although Maximum are much closer to the norm then has been the case in recent years.I can't speak for other areas .
Gavin  of SSWW Canberra.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, February 21, 2002 7:07 PM
Subject: aus-wx: El Nino

As I understand it, we are entering an El Nino phase. Could the cool summer over southern Australia and NZ
be attributed to this?
From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Global Imagery Date: Sat, 23 Feb 2002 11:30:26 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, I've created a summary page of global infrared imagery (courtesy of NOAA & other agencies) - Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, North & South America, Australia & Asia http://www.stormchasers.au.com/globaloview.htm I'm looking to do the same for water vapour & visible imagery. I'd be interested in rewriting this in cgi to make it load faster but don't know cgi - anyone like to rewrite the code for me?? Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 23 Feb 2002 15:41:52 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Feb 16 sydney storm Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Does anyone have radar of the supercell that moved through west sydney on Sat Feb 16? we were all out chasing and could not save radar. Matthew Smith +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Two tropical lows go poof! Date: Sat, 23 Feb 2002 21:35:02 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 23 Feb 2002 10:36:13.0612 (UTC) FILETIME=[EA882EC0:01C1BC55] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all tropo's.
What a remarkable occurrence to see the two tropical disturbances go poof!, the large monsoonal low over northwest WA has laid itself bare showing a skeleton of low cloud spiral bands with the upper cloud all but disappeared! the same thing has happened to the tropical low over open ocean west of Broome, not a bad trick! I have to say I haven't seen that to often, or are they just taking a breather?, regards Clyve Herbert.
Date: Sun, 24 Feb 2002 09:48:14 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: SMH article Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Most people already know of this but it is probably the best article about storms and the BoM I have read in an aussie paper! Top work by the writer! http://www.smh.com.au/news/0202/23/review/review8.html Matthew Smith +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Ben Tichborne" To: Subject: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #1340 Date: Sun, 24 Feb 2002 17:19:25 +1300 Organization: Private X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > As I understand it, we are entering an El Nino phase. Could the cool = > summer over southern Australia and NZ > be attributed to this? February will probably turn out be cooler than normal over NZ as a whole, but the NIWA figures for December state it was 0.9 C warmer than normal for the country as a whole (one of the top 10 warmest Decembers on record), while January was 0.1 C above normal nationally. Because of frequent easterlies, the latter month was a lot cooler than usual in the east of the South Island, but West Coasters were both warmer and sunnier than usual. Take note that many people believe summer to be cool in when its cloudier and wetter than normal - they notice the lack of warm, sunny days, but often forget that night-time minimums are usually higher than usual at the same time. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 24 Feb 2002 16:15:01 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: A Bit of BoM Forecasting humour! X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Okay. That was Thursday; it's now Sunday. Did any of you Northern Rivers blokes manage to catch sight of that "1 moderate" or did "The Cloud" come by and hide it from view? Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: "Dave Ellem" To: "Aussie Weather" Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 07:11:12 +1100 Subject: aus-wx: A Bit of BoM Forecasting humour! > Morning All! > Just ran through the morning forecast for the Northern Rivers and found > this: > > NORTHERN RIVERS > Thursday > High fire danger. > Cloud increasing with rain developing and chance of afternoon > thunderstorms. > Very warm to hot and humid with l moderate northwest to northeast > winds. > > I'll keep a close eye out for that 1 moderate NW to NE wind!! > Have a good one!! > > Dave Ellem, > Wollongbar, > Northern Rivers, > NE NSW > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 24 Feb 2002 19:23:38 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aus-wx: Storm Chaser Dictionary Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I've finally gotten around to compiling a storm chaser's dictionary in Australia. This includes all of the terminology that I've heard used in storm chasers, some of it gets used more often than others - some of it is used in everyday language between some people, while othertimes it's just used occassionally. But rest assured they are used :) http://www.downunderchase.com/miscellaneous/chaserdictionary.html Additions welcome as they come in... AC +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 202.12.87.169 X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Sun, 24 Feb 2002 20:51:52 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm Chaser Dictionary Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 07:23 PM 24/02/2002 +1000, you wrote: >http://www.downunderchase.com/miscellaneous/chaserdictionary.html Hehehe, was a good read. :-) 73 de Tony, VK3JED http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm Chaser Dictionary Date: Sun, 24 Feb 2002 21:14:50 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - host1.ns4ua.com X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - world.std.com X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [0 0] / [0 0] X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - ozthunder.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Excellent memory there Anthony !! How about Anvilus Maximus - rather than refering a strong powerful anvil, this actually refers to those horrible low shear days when the anvil from the first storms of the day spread across the sky blocking sunshine and killing convection. This usually happens as you decide to chase. Then we always have the ever controversal SE Wind - Storm Eradicator - works well here recently. Regards Michael ----- Original Message ----- From: "Anthony Cornelius" To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" Sent: Sunday, February 24, 2002 8:23 PM Subject: aus-wx: Storm Chaser Dictionary > Hi all, > > I've finally gotten around to compiling a storm chaser's dictionary in > Australia. This includes all of the terminology that I've heard used in > storm chasers, some of it gets used more often than others - some of it > is used in everyday language between some people, while othertimes it's > just used occassionally. But rest assured they are used :) > > http://www.downunderchase.com/miscellaneous/chaserdictionary.html > > Additions welcome as they come in... > > AC > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 24 Feb 2002 21:09:42 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm Chaser Dictionary Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Fantastic Ants! :) You forgot my fav though...... up she goes. =) Matt Smith Anthony Cornelius wrote: > Hi all, > > I've finally gotten around to compiling a storm chaser's dictionary in > Australia. This includes all of the terminology that I've heard used in > storm chasers, some of it gets used more often than others - some of it > is used in everyday language between some people, while othertimes it's > just used occassionally. But rest assured they are used :) > > http://www.downunderchase.com/miscellaneous/chaserdictionary.html > > Additions welcome as they come in... > > AC > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Nick Sykes" To: Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms - Mon 25th Date: Sun, 24 Feb 2002 22:40:08 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Latest AVN (6Z) looks very nice for the Melbourne area with -5 LI's over Melbourne and Cape in the 1200 to 1600 range. The better LI's and CApe seem to be in response to AVN predicting better moisture for the Melbourne area. Moisture can be hard to predict, so may be a bit dodge, but does look good. Given the CAPE values I think large hail is possible and the expected low shear will see the storms slow moving, flash flooding possible. Well, will see how she goes. Nick +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: TC near Suva Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2002 06:20:44 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, that area near Suva that we've all been watching for days has finally got itself organised... 241500Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.0S3 175.1E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 16P HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 16P IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WERE LIMITED WITH NOGAPS INDICATING A SOUTHWARD TRACK. AVN AND UK-MET OFFICE DO NOT INITIALIZE ON THE SYSTEM. FIELD ANALYSIS OF THOSE MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS, BLENDED WITH FIELD ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z9 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 240121Z FEB 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Kimberley Low / Tropical stuff Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2002 12:07:59 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 25 Feb 2002 01:09:09.0252 (UTC) FILETIME=[07425C40:01C1BD99] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Good morning Paul and all.
I was very interested in the progress of this monsoonal low, apart from at one stage a few days ago it appeared to look like a TC over land at its max intensity,the decline of this low and another tropical low east of the Cocoas islands at about the same time is a bit of a puzzle especially when both of them went zap rather quickly?. However I was fishing around amongst the Broome soundings ( I have seen this sought of thing before  over the past 10 years or so) and was looking for variations in temp and humidity levels, there seems to be a bit of a pattern to this type of collapse. What I found ( and this is only my idea) there was over a 3 day period a marked warming of the mid levels (21 to 23 rd Feb) 3c+ (500hpa), and a significant cooling of the 850hpa over this region...850hpa 21st 24.3c and on the 23rd the 850hpa was 16.7c!! ( soundings taken at 1000hrs local). At other levels above 400hpa there was no significant temp change. There was also a weakening of the upper divergence support from the 21st Feb. So what was happening? to me there seems to have been a very significant weakening of the lapse rate between 850hpa and 500hpa so there was lower level cooling and mid level warming. Also there was also a marked increase in moisture levels through most of the tropopause. It appears also that this monsoonal low under went a marked intensification following the strengthening of the sub tropical jet in conjunction with the deep low south of Tasmania last week this aided the outflow divergence support, when the subtropical jet weakened after the 21st and  subsequently the upper outflow declined it was like switching off the 'extraction fan' this was followed by low level cooling (there is no ocean underneath to prive 24hr heat) and a rapid weakening of the low to mid convergence potential, also over the past 2 weeks this efficient system was transferring huge amounts of heat into the middle and upper tropopause this also aids in the warming of the upper levels but while the upper divergent field was strong the net heat loss was able to overcome the net heat impute.. best wishes and regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, February 23, 2002 12:17 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Kimberley Low / Tropical stuff

HI all - looks like our friend the Monsoonal Low that has been around for well over 2 weeks (remembering its the same Low that developed near Port Keats some 14 days ago) is starting to loose its integrity. Deep convection is starting to dissapate and it looks like it may be being captured by mid-latitude systems - looks like its being sheared significantly.
 
Clyve your thoughts?
 
Nice pulse/suge of cross-equatorial W/NW'erlies near Java has potential - only question is will it be captured itself by the Low or continue moving eastwards? If it moves eastwards - watch it for TC development!
 
Rgds
Paul Mossman
NT State ASWA Rep
email: ntstorms at bigpond.com
MSN: ntstorms at hotmail.com
ICQ: 111144666
Mobile: 0438024372
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, February 22, 2002 9:52 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: [Fwd: Hail storm]

Hi,

You will find the first of the chases ie 21st had hailstorms around Newcastle area.

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2001/docs/200112-04.htm

Jimmy Deguara

At 10:13 PM 20/2/2002 -0600, you wrote:
Can anyone help Lilly find the information she needs?

chadden wrote:
  Hello,  could you please assist?  In late December , just before Xmas there   was a short severe hail storm in Newcastle,   NSW  Could you give me the date of that storm?   It happened  just after 3pm  on either a Friday or a Monday.   Thanks and regardsLilly Email address is      chadden at kooee.com.au

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2002 20:17:33 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aus-wx: Next QLD ASWA Meeting Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, ***GUESTS WELCOME!!!!!!*** Just a reminder about the next Queensland ASWA meeting this Saturday on the 2nd of March! On the agenda includes: - Continuation of February presentation "What is a Supercell" including a discussion on what environments supercells are likely to form in. - Discussion of the setup of January 16-17, 2002 storm complex along the NSW and QLD coast. - Usual "week in review" and "the week ahead" discussion topics - Showing of more summer storm video footage from the previous months! - Discuss QLD ASWA Annual BBQ (was postponed, organise date/area) Date: Saturday, 2nd of March Time: 10am-2pm Place: "Pixel Components" Unit 9/14 Argon St. Sumner (Brisbane) What to bring? Yourself, photos, videos and $4 for pizza and drinks. Be great to see you there! If possible it'd be terrific if you could please drop me a quick email if you can attend at cyclone at bigpond.net.au to get an idea on numbers, but it's not essential! Guests are more than welcome! -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: duckman.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2002 21:33:54 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne storm images Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all Some storms developed and passed through Melbourne this arvo/evening, and here are some captures that I took: http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_25/today.html For a brief moment, lightning flashes were up around 1 flash per few seconds. Rain was at best moderate, as the heaviest stuff seemed to sidestep around me at Clayton. Things are now quiet, which means I should be able to go out and get some dinner! Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2002 20:56:16 +1100 From: Don White X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie Weather Subject: aus-wx: Cold in the Centre Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Anyone notice the areal extent of max temps of 15 degrees or more below normal on 23-24 Feb from Giles in the west to SW Queensland. Why so cold when no air other than tropical appeared to make its way into the area. Any thoughts anyone?? don White +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Graham" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2002 22:52:37 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.3018.1300 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Tony, Everyone, Why is it that some poeple insist on using their radio's during a storm???...I've talked to heaps of people who are on air during storms. I always disconnect the coax when ther's lightning about....just scared that if I transmit, lightning might get attracted to the electrical(?) current going up the antenna..... Cheer's John from Ballina [snip] > > Somehow, between all that, I managed to tune a couple of antennas (is that > inviting a lightning strike or what? :) ) and determined that 18 MHz is a > good band for monitoring relatively close lightning strikes (10-20km away) > - if 18 MHz crackles, get ready! :). When the meter hits S9, DUCK!!! (it's > < 3km away) :) > > Anyway, the fun seems to be over now. :) > > > > 73 de Tony, VK3JED > http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p111-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.140.111] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2002 23:39:16 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Next AMOS Weatherwatch meeting Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, here is the next meeting for the Weatherwatch group. For those who were not able to observe the recent violent Western Sydney storm, here is a chance to see what it was like on the inside!!!!! Amongst other items to discuss - see below. Hi Weatherwatchers, The latest information on Parking at Macquarie University is as follows:- First Hour is $2, one to three hours is $5, any length up to midnight is $6. On rare occasions Parking Fees are waved for special events, check notices at gates. If it says 'Pay and Display in Operation' on a yellow sign at the gate watch out. Have the right money with you ($5 in coins) and display your ticket on the window-sill. Please do not be put off by the Macquarie Parking Policy, the room is still free. The Meeting on 27th February should be an interesting one. Jimmy Deguara has video of recent storms, Don White will be there with data. Neil will do the weather report for the month and the weather forecast. Apparently the last ASWA Meeting at Concord turned into a Great Storm Chase. The AMOS Meeting on 13th March is also at Macquarie with Kevin O'Lachlan, The new Director of the Sydney Bureau of Meteorology as Guest Speaker. An event not to be missed. The next Weatherwatch will be on 24th April with Keith Barnett as Guest Speaker. Alan Williams tells me that Keith is visiting the Sydney Bureau around this time. Another important event not to be missed. So don't worry about the cost of parking. Come and enjoy the Meteorology. Regards Roger T. Nurse. Convenor and News Editor. (02) 9449.1473 ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne storm images Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 00:08:54 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening (or is it morning?) all, Great pics Robert!!!!.. It's midnight & neither SCD nor I have had tea yet (or does this make it breakfast?) Here is the beginning of the collection of images from today starting with the genesis of that storm at 1300AEDST. Included also is a stunning lightning shot from Anthony Violi of Knoxfield. http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_02_02.htm There are satpics & radar loop still to be added & I suspect a few more shots from people out chasing today & tonight which will go up over the next few days... Stay tuned. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- > Hi all > > Some storms developed and passed through Melbourne this arvo/evening, and > here are some captures that I took: > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_25/today.html > > For a brief moment, lightning flashes were up around 1 flash per few > seconds. Rain was at best moderate, as the heaviest stuff seemed to > sidestep around me at Clayton. Things are now quiet, which means I should > be able to go out and get some dinner! > > > Cheers > > -- > > Robert A. Goler > > School of Mathematical Sciences > Monash University > Clayton, Vic 3800 > Australia > > ph. +61 3 9905 4424 > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Peter Matters" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne storm images Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 07:52:05 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jane, I will have the pics of the Melton cell back tomorrow and will email them to you. Cheers Peter ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: Sent: Tuesday, February 26, 2002 12:08 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne storm images > Evening (or is it morning?) all, > > Great pics Robert!!!!.. It's midnight & neither SCD nor I have had tea > yet (or does this make it breakfast?) > > Here is the beginning of the collection of images from today starting > with the genesis of that storm at 1300AEDST. Included also is a > stunning lightning shot from Anthony Violi of Knoxfield. > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_02_02.htm > > There are satpics & radar loop still to be added & I suspect a few more > shots from people out chasing today & tonight which will go up over the > next few days... > > Stay tuned. > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > Hi all > > > > Some storms developed and passed through Melbourne this arvo/evening, > and > > here are some captures that I took: > > > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_25/today.html > > > > For a brief moment, lightning flashes were up around 1 flash per few > > seconds. Rain was at best moderate, as the heaviest stuff seemed to > > sidestep around me at Clayton. Things are now quiet, which means I > should > > be able to go out and get some dinner! > > > > > > Cheers > > > > -- > > > > Robert A. Goler > > > > School of Mathematical Sciences > > Monash University > > Clayton, Vic 3800 > > Australia > > > > ph. +61 3 9905 4424 > > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > > > > -- > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Nick Sykes" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne storm images Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 09:32:49 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey All Had a great day yesterday, got slammed by the Wheelers Hill cell. Very strong winds, approx 100km/hr, intense white out rain, 1cm hail, lots of lightning. SES recieved lots of calls in the wheelers hill area for this storm, trees and power poles brought down and flooding. Here arae the pics from yesterday http://www.pbase.com/njsykes/feb_25th_2002&page=all I have some nice video of the intensity of this storm. There was rotation in the base of this storm. video = http://host02.ipowerweb.com/~vicstorm/rotation.mpg severe winds video = http://host02.ipowerweb.com/~vicstorm/wind1.mpg severe winds agian = http://host02.ipowerweb.com/~vicstorm/wind2.mpg hail http://host02.ipowerweb.com/~vicstorm/hail1.mpg Lightning http://host02.ipowerweb.com/~vicstorm/lightning1.mpg http://host02.ipowerweb.com/~vicstorm/lightning2.mpg Nick Sykes +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: Lightning (was: Melb storm! :)) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 10:34:05 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, John from Ballina typed: > Why is it that some poeple insist on using their radio's during a > storm???...I've talked to heaps of people who are on air during storms. > I always disconnect the coax when ther's lightning about....just scared that > if I transmit, lightning might get attracted to the electrical(?) current > going up the antenna..... My current notion on this is that an antenna can acquire charge through induction in a rapidly changing electrical/magnetic field (as you would find near a lightning strike). That charge would travel down the coax and zap you and your radio, with unpleasant consequences for both, especially in the absence of a surge protector. I currently don't think that lightning cares whether your radio is turned on or not. Cheers, Harald PS: I have heard two reports of damage so far regarding yesterday's VIC storms: (1) trees down in Glen Waverley/Wheelers Hill area; (2) tornado (!) near Rochester (VIC) -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: duckman.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 10:57:23 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Aussie Weather Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning (was: Melb storm! :)) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Harald, all Here's the melb 256km radar loop which shows the only activity that went through the Rochester area, around 6:30pm last night. http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_25/melb256kmloop.gif > PS: I have heard two reports of damage so far regarding yesterday's > VIC storms: > (1) trees down in Glen Waverley/Wheelers Hill area; > (2) tornado (!) near Rochester (VIC) Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: duckman.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 11:08:32 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Aussie Weather Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning (was: Melb storm! :)) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sorry for another email, but I just noticed this as I sent the last one. Check out the northward moving cell on the Vic/NSW border, which as it decays then begins to track eastward. Meanwhile, the stuff near Rochester moves to the east for all times. Here's the 512km radar loop which shows a couple more northward tracking cells in NSW: http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_25/melb512kmloop.gif I'm not sure how significant this is as I don't know what the steering flow in southern NSW was, but in any case, these cells are moving at right angles to the stuff in Vic. There's also a cell to the southwest of Hay which appears to split on the 08:20UT image???? > Here's the melb 256km radar loop which shows the only activity that > went through the Rochester area, around 6:30pm last night. > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_25/melb256kmloop.gif > > > > PS: I have heard two reports of damage so far regarding yesterday's > > VIC storms: > > (1) trees down in Glen Waverley/Wheelers Hill area; > > (2) tornado (!) near Rochester (VIC) > Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne storm images Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 11:26:42 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Feb 2002 00:27:47.0203 (UTC) FILETIME=[6A417D30:01C1BE5C] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Jane. The first 6 shots are a classic time lapse of a developing CB its interesting to see the early structure of 3 updraft towers (3 sisters!) merging to form one anvil ...Instant multicell ?!!, very nice photos, regards Clyve Herbert. ----- Original Message ----- From: Jane ONeill To: Sent: Tuesday, February 26, 2002 12:08 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne storm images > Evening (or is it morning?) all, > > Great pics Robert!!!!.. It's midnight & neither SCD nor I have had tea > yet (or does this make it breakfast?) > > Here is the beginning of the collection of images from today starting > with the genesis of that storm at 1300AEDST. Included also is a > stunning lightning shot from Anthony Violi of Knoxfield. > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_02_02.htm > > There are satpics & radar loop still to be added & I suspect a few more > shots from people out chasing today & tonight which will go up over the > next few days... > > Stay tuned. > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > Hi all > > > > Some storms developed and passed through Melbourne this arvo/evening, > and > > here are some captures that I took: > > > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_25/today.html > > > > For a brief moment, lightning flashes were up around 1 flash per few > > seconds. Rain was at best moderate, as the heaviest stuff seemed to > > sidestep around me at Clayton. Things are now quiet, which means I > should > > be able to go out and get some dinner! > > > > > > Cheers > > > > -- > > > > Robert A. Goler > > > > School of Mathematical Sciences > > Monash University > > Clayton, Vic 3800 > > Australia > > > > ph. +61 3 9905 4424 > > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > > > > -- > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 11:48:25 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Feb 2002 00:49:24.0740 (UTC) FILETIME=[6FA5EC40:01C1BE5F] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
Some of you may have watched a remarkable lightning show north of Melbourne last night between 2100hrs and 2300hrs, this storm/storms were producing at times between 40 and 60 lightning discharges per minute (peak between 2130 and 2230). Julian Hollis from Trentham reports that a location near Mt Alexander (south of Bendigo) recorded 68mm in just over half an hour around the above times last night, with fences washed away and some stock loss. The lightning was so frequent that the domed overshoot was clearly visible. regards Clyve Herbert.
 
Also in another part of the world there is a convective area north of New Caledonia with two centres this area looks somewhat interesting .
From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 14:19:25 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > This is a multi-part message in MIME format. > > ------=_NextPart_000_0009_01C1BEBB.7FD1C420 > Content-Type: text/plain; > charset="iso-8859-1" > Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > > Hi all. > Some of you may have watched a remarkable lightning show north of = > Melbourne last night between 2100hrs and 2300hrs, this storm/storms were = > producing at times between 40 and 60 lightning discharges per minute = > (peak between 2130 and 2230). Julian Hollis from Trentham reports that a = > location near Mt Alexander (south of Bendigo) recorded 68mm in just over = > half an hour around the above times last night, with fences washed away = > and some stock loss. The lightning was so frequent that the domed = > overshoot was clearly visible. regards Clyve Herbert. > Following up on my previous mail, I've just seen an ABC news report of 'more than 100 millimetres in under two hours'. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 14:17:59 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > This is a multi-part message in MIME format. > > ------=_NextPart_000_0009_01C1BEBB.7FD1C420 > Content-Type: text/plain; > charset="iso-8859-1" > Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > > Hi all. > Some of you may have watched a remarkable lightning show north of = > Melbourne last night between 2100hrs and 2300hrs, this storm/storms were = > producing at times between 40 and 60 lightning discharges per minute = > (peak between 2130 and 2230). Julian Hollis from Trentham reports that a = > location near Mt Alexander (south of Bendigo) recorded 68mm in just over = > half an hour around the above times last night, with fences washed away = > and some stock loss. The lightning was so frequent that the domed = > overshoot was clearly visible. regards Clyve Herbert. > Redesdale, which would also have been in the path of this storm, got 39mm in not terribly long before its phone connection went down the gurgler (I've only got hourly data, so all I can conclude is that they got 19mm in the hour 2100-2200 and another 20 before its connection went down sometime before 2300). Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning (was: Melb storm! :)) Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 15:08:01 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Feb 2002 04:06:48.0544 (UTC) FILETIME=[031AFE00:01C1BE7B] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thanks for the radar loops, Nick, if you take your eyes off the storms and have a look at the 512km composite you can clearly see the rain shadow effect that the Brindabellas/Great dividing range has on the ACT and Monaro region of NSW aswell Cheers Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 www.canberra-wx.com ----- Original Message ----- From: "Robert Goler" To: "Aussie Weather" Sent: Tuesday, February 26, 2002 11:08 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning (was: Melb storm! :)) > > Sorry for another email, but I just noticed this as I sent the last one. > Check out the northward moving cell on the Vic/NSW border, which as it > decays then begins to track eastward. Meanwhile, the stuff near Rochester > moves to the east for all times. > > Here's the 512km radar loop which shows a couple more northward tracking > cells in NSW: > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_25/melb512kmloop.gif > > I'm not sure how significant this is as I don't know what the steering > flow in southern NSW was, but in any case, these cells are moving at right > angles to the stuff in Vic. > > There's also a cell to the southwest of Hay which appears to split on > the 08:20UT image???? > > > Here's the melb 256km radar loop which shows the only activity that > > went through the Rochester area, around 6:30pm last night. > > > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_25/melb256kmloop.gif > > > > > > > PS: I have heard two reports of damage so far regarding yesterday's > > > VIC storms: > > > (1) trees down in Glen Waverley/Wheelers Hill area; > > > (2) tornado (!) near Rochester (VIC) > > > > Cheers > > -- > > Robert A. Goler > > School of Mathematical Sciences > Monash University > Clayton, Vic 3800 > Australia > > ph. +61 3 9905 4424 > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aus Wx" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 15:19:50 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com This report from Rod Aikman in Bendigo..... Some details of the storm in the Mt Alexander area between 21:30 and 22:00 last night are starting to come in. The biggest impact of the storm appears to have been on the eastern flank of Mt Alexander with a report of 70 mm of rain falling in 45 minutes at Sutton Grange (about 20 - 25 km away from here directly). There are reports of vehicle damage caused by hail, wind damage to buildings, and fences being washed away by flash flooding in the Sutton Grange area. There is a report of hail being the size of a 10 cent coin. From Bendigo the storm looked spectacular, with lightning discharges occurring within 1-2 seconds of each other. Regards Rod Aikman, Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au ------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: duckman.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 15:39:52 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Aus Wx Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I've extended the running time of the 256km radar to include the rain over the Mt Alexander region: http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_25/melb256kmloop.gif On Tue, 26 Feb 2002, Jane ONeill wrote: > This report from Rod Aikman in Bendigo..... > > Some details of the storm in the Mt Alexander area between 21:30 and 22:00 > last night are starting to come in. The biggest impact of the storm appears > to have been on the eastern flank of Mt Alexander with a report of 70 mm of > rain falling in 45 minutes at Sutton Grange (about 20 - 25 km away from here > directly). There are reports of vehicle damage caused by hail, wind damage > to buildings, and fences being washed away by flash flooding in the Sutton > Grange area. There is a report of hail being the size of a 10 cent coin. Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 202.12.87.169 X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 17:40:29 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 10:52 PM 25/02/2002 +1100, John Graham wrote: >Hi Tony, Everyone, > >Why is it that some poeple insist on using their radio's during a >storm???...I've talked to heaps of people who are on air during storms. >I always disconnect the coax when ther's lightning about....just scared that >if I transmit, lightning might get attracted to the electrical(?) current >going up the antenna..... That's not likely.. Biggest problem is the antenna itself. Not an issue with little AM portables though. BTW, seems to be a good way to attract storms - do something that you can't do during a storm. Like the smokers who light up while waiting for a bus... seems to work for them (the bus comes). :) 73 de Tony, VK3JED http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p111-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.140.111] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 18:51:30 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Tony, Great analogy - I like it. Weather related - very humid and very warm day. Some cumulus around but nothing I would waste my time over. Perhaps the next couple of days will bring some more significant rainfall. We had 26.2mm from the rain overnight last night and yesterday afternoon. The paddocks are very green - the sheep are enjoying this time of surplus supply of food!!!! Jimmy Deguara At 05:40 PM 26/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >At 10:52 PM 25/02/2002 +1100, John Graham wrote: > > >>Hi Tony, Everyone, >> >>Why is it that some poeple insist on using their radio's during a >>storm???...I've talked to heaps of people who are on air during storms. >>I always disconnect the coax when ther's lightning about....just scared that >>if I transmit, lightning might get attracted to the electrical(?) current >>going up the antenna..... > >That's not likely.. Biggest problem is the antenna itself. Not an issue >with little AM portables though. > >BTW, seems to be a good way to attract storms - do something that you >can't do during a storm. Like the smokers who light up while waiting for >a bus... seems to work for them (the bus comes). :) > >73 de Tony, VK3JED >http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 18:58:21 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Wow impressive! Barely a drop up here overnight! Matt Smith Jimmy Deguara wrote: > Hi Tony, > > Great analogy - I like it. > > Weather related - very humid and very warm day. Some cumulus around but > nothing I would waste my time over. Perhaps the next couple of days will > bring some more significant rainfall. We had 26.2mm from the rain overnight > last night and yesterday afternoon. > > The paddocks are very green - the sheep are enjoying this time of surplus > supply of food!!!! > > Jimmy Deguara > > At 05:40 PM 26/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: > >At 10:52 PM 25/02/2002 +1100, John Graham wrote: > > > > > >>Hi Tony, Everyone, > >> > >>Why is it that some poeple insist on using their radio's during a > >>storm???...I've talked to heaps of people who are on air during storms. > >>I always disconnect the coax when ther's lightning about....just scared that > >>if I transmit, lightning might get attracted to the electrical(?) current > >>going up the antenna..... > > > >That's not likely.. Biggest problem is the antenna itself. Not an issue > >with little AM portables though. > > > >BTW, seems to be a good way to attract storms - do something that you > >can't do during a storm. Like the smokers who light up while waiting for > >a bus... seems to work for them (the bus comes). :) > > > >73 de Tony, VK3JED > >http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 202.12.87.169 X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 19:28:03 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 06:51 PM 26/02/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Hi Tony, > >Great analogy - I like it. Hehe, well that's how it happened. The cells were sliding ESE initially, and the big cell would have grazed here at best. About when I started my antenna tuning exercise, the cell started to move in a more easterly direction, which put it on a direct path! :) I've still got 24 MHz to tune up, so I'll leave that for the next stormy day! LOL >Weather related - very humid and very warm day. Some cumulus around but >nothing I would waste my time over. Perhaps the next couple of days will >bring some more significant rainfall. We had 26.2mm from the rain >overnight last night and yesterday afternoon. By contrast, today it's Melboring! :) Just a sunny afternoon with a cool S wind, nothing of any interest... Can't enjoy real warmth or storms (though it is pleasant outside). >The paddocks are very green - the sheep are enjoying this time of surplus >supply of food!!!! LOL Well, it's been a consistent season here, not as many of the usual near misses. Though the best I can recall was a couple of summers ago, where not one, but two (on different days) storms took out the power. One struck the HT power lines over the road (was one hell of a FLANG!!!! :) ), and almost simultaneously, a second CG hit the power lines in the next street. Took the power company 9 hours to sort out the mess... Similar had happened a few weeks before, similar result (that was earlier in the day, and I was in the office and missed that flang)... Well, the backup batteries came into their own that night... I could at least chat on the airwaves... :) 73 de Tony, VK3JED http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net From: "Bussy" To: "aussie-weather" Subject: aus-wx: Just in theory Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 20:06:24 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I've always had this little nagging thought in the back of my head which may get me committed one day.
Just in theory. If say Melbourne had a 40 degree day and there were a million air con's running (possible), and a fair bit of this gets released to atmosphere with leakages etc. Would the day have been well into the 40's there but never made it because of all these factors?
Say for instance that they were all evap type coolers and released lots more moisture into the air during this "hot" day. Would it help with storm potential with the added humidity?
OK. I'm coming back to my room now........
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 202.12.87.169 X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 20:24:26 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Just in theory Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 08:06 PM 26/02/2002 +1100, you wrote: >I've always had this little nagging thought in the back of my head which >may get me committed one day. >Just in theory. If say Melbourne had a 40 degree day and there were a >million air con's running (possible), and a fair bit of this gets released >to atmosphere with leakages etc. Would the day have been well into the >40's there but never made it because of all these factors? Well, aircons actually release a lot more heat than they absorb (2nd Law of Thermodynamics in operation here), so the atmosphere will be hotter, leakage or not than if no aircons were running... (marginally hotter anyway)... >Say for instance that they were all evap type coolers and released lots >more moisture into the air during this "hot" day. Would it help with storm >potential with the added humidity? Well, theoretically, but I think a few million or so litres of water might be a drop in the bucket... :) 73 de Tony, VK3JED http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne storm images Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 21:03:33 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - host1.ns4ua.com X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - world.std.com X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [0 0] / [0 0] X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - ozthunder.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Good shots Jane, it is not often we get such great 'time lapse' type images. Michael ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: Sent: Tuesday, February 26, 2002 12:08 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne storm images > Evening (or is it morning?) all, > > Great pics Robert!!!!.. It's midnight & neither SCD nor I have had tea > yet (or does this make it breakfast?) > > Here is the beginning of the collection of images from today starting > with the genesis of that storm at 1300AEDST. Included also is a > stunning lightning shot from Anthony Violi of Knoxfield. > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_02_02.htm > > There are satpics & radar loop still to be added & I suspect a few more > shots from people out chasing today & tonight which will go up over the > next few days... > > Stay tuned. > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > Hi all > > > > Some storms developed and passed through Melbourne this arvo/evening, > and > > here are some captures that I took: > > > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_25/today.html > > > > For a brief moment, lightning flashes were up around 1 flash per few > > seconds. Rain was at best moderate, as the heaviest stuff seemed to > > sidestep around me at Clayton. Things are now quiet, which means I > should > > be able to go out and get some dinner! > > > > > > Cheers > > > > -- > > > > Robert A. Goler > > > > School of Mathematical Sciences > > Monash University > > Clayton, Vic 3800 > > Australia > > > > ph. +61 3 9905 4424 > > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > > > > -- > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Duncan & Mandy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold in the Centre Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 20:08:36 +1030 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com G'day Don, all I was in Brisbane on business when it got pretty cold and wet here in Alice Springs last week. This was from the low depression over the Kimberley. I know it's not very scientific, but whenever it rains here for a prolonged period, it gets cold and very damp. Simple. The same happens when a cyclone hits with lots of rain. As soon as the Sun appears, things heat up very quickly. We've had about 70mm in the past 4 days, and the Todd is flowing at a reasonable rate. Very humid still, but due to the breakup of cloud, the sun is out, creating very warm and steamy conditions. I was interested to observe yesterday that there seemed to be rotation on the radar during the buildup of storms in the area, as if a small Low was situated right over the top of Alice Springs. I've never seen this before. Cheers, Duncan Treloar Alice Springs ----- Original Message ----- From: "Don White" To: "Aussie Weather" Sent: Monday, 25 February 2002 8:26 pm Subject: aus-wx: Cold in the Centre > Anyone notice the areal extent of max temps of 15 degrees or more below > normal on 23-24 Feb from Giles in the west to SW Queensland. > Why so cold when no air other than tropical appeared to make its way > into the area. > Any thoughts anyone?? > > don White > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne storm images Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 23:39:40 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thanks Michael, it was developing at such a rate, that I took one shot - turned around (remember I'm on a corrugated iron roof....) and by the time I turned back, it had developed a bit more- I just kept repeating the process. Those first 6 shots are within say 5 minutes total.... Absolutely amazing!!. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- ----- Original Message ----- From: "Michael Thompson" To: Sent: Tuesday, February 26, 2002 9:03 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne storm images > Good shots Jane, it is not often we get such great 'time lapse' type images. > > Michael > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Jane ONeill" > To: > Sent: Tuesday, February 26, 2002 12:08 AM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne storm images > > > > Evening (or is it morning?) all, > > > > Great pics Robert!!!!.. It's midnight & neither SCD nor I have had tea > > yet (or does this make it breakfast?) > > > > Here is the beginning of the collection of images from today starting > > with the genesis of that storm at 1300AEDST. Included also is a > > stunning lightning shot from Anthony Violi of Knoxfield. > > > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_02_02.htm > > > > There are satpics & radar loop still to be added & I suspect a few more > > shots from people out chasing today & tonight which will go up over the > > next few days... > > > > Stay tuned. > > > > Jane > > > > -------------------------------- > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > > > ASWA - Victoria > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > -------------------------------- > > > Hi all > > > > > > Some storms developed and passed through Melbourne this arvo/evening, > > and > > > here are some captures that I took: > > > > > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_02_25/today.html > > > > > > For a brief moment, lightning flashes were up around 1 flash per few > > > seconds. Rain was at best moderate, as the heaviest stuff seemed to > > > sidestep around me at Clayton. Things are now quiet, which means I > > should > > > be able to go out and get some dinner! > > > > > > > > > Cheers > > > > > > -- > > > > > > Robert A. Goler > > > > > > School of Mathematical Sciences > > > Monash University > > > Clayton, Vic 3800 > > > Australia > > > > > > ph. +61 3 9905 4424 > > > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au > > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > > > > > > -- > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > > your > > > message. > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > > -- > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: The low that just won't give up Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 00:00:00 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com All, You have to be impressed with that gi-normous (new technical term - Ants take note!!) monsoon low that just will not give up....... http://www.eng.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/ausvlast.gif Weather across the country is being, and will continue to be affected by this!!! I can't ever remember seeing a system quite this spectacular. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 09:14:06 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Feb 2002 22:15:10.0442 (UTC) FILETIME=[0E11DCA0:01C1BF13] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Blair and all. A further phone call from Julian Hollis yesterday in respect to the lightning type associated with this Mt Alexander storm was the appearance of "sprites" extending upwards from the CB top on at least two occasions.regards Clyve Herbert. ----- Original Message ----- From: Blair Trewin To: Sent: Tuesday, February 26, 2002 2:17 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. > > > > This is a multi-part message in MIME format. > > > > ------=_NextPart_000_0009_01C1BEBB.7FD1C420 > > Content-Type: text/plain; > > charset="iso-8859-1" > > Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > > > > Hi all. > > Some of you may have watched a remarkable lightning show north of = > > Melbourne last night between 2100hrs and 2300hrs, this storm/storms were = > > producing at times between 40 and 60 lightning discharges per minute = > > (peak between 2130 and 2230). Julian Hollis from Trentham reports that a = > > location near Mt Alexander (south of Bendigo) recorded 68mm in just over = > > half an hour around the above times last night, with fences washed away = > > and some stock loss. The lightning was so frequent that the domed = > > overshoot was clearly visible. regards Clyve Herbert. > > > > Redesdale, which would also have been in the path of this storm, got > 39mm in not terribly long before its phone connection went down the > gurgler (I've only got hourly data, so all I can conclude is that > they got 19mm in the hour 2100-2200 and another 20 before its > connection went down sometime before 2300). > > Blair > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Tropo talk. Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 09:28:18 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Feb 2002 22:29:19.0201 (UTC) FILETIME=[07F83510:01C1BF15] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
An interesting out of season tropical disturbance at 150east and about 8 degrees north is looking interesting this morning drifting west at the tip of a mid lat upper trough, also the chocolate freckle looking tropical low near Vila is still edging southward towards New Caledonia though appears to show limited surface convergence upper divergence seems ok. regards Clyve H.
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 09:40:17 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Feb 2002 22:41:18.0964 (UTC) FILETIME=[B4FB5340:01C1BF16] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all. A look at the radar provided by Robert Golar shows some interesting behaviour in respect to motion of the Mt Alexander storm which showed apparent "developmental stalling" in the vicinity of Mt Alexander and also a possible left movement for a short time, however another storm on radar east of Cohuna at an earlier stage shows what appears to be a very pronounced left moving bias while another storm developing to its south moves off to the right ,although this second development seems associated with possible outflow from the storm near Cohuna. regards Clyve Herbert. ----- Original Message ----- From: Blair Trewin To: Sent: Tuesday, February 26, 2002 2:19 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. > > > > This is a multi-part message in MIME format. > > > > ------=_NextPart_000_0009_01C1BEBB.7FD1C420 > > Content-Type: text/plain; > > charset="iso-8859-1" > > Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > > > > Hi all. > > Some of you may have watched a remarkable lightning show north of = > > Melbourne last night between 2100hrs and 2300hrs, this storm/storms were = > > producing at times between 40 and 60 lightning discharges per minute = > > (peak between 2130 and 2230). Julian Hollis from Trentham reports that a = > > location near Mt Alexander (south of Bendigo) recorded 68mm in just over = > > half an hour around the above times last night, with fences washed away = > > and some stock loss. The lightning was so frequent that the domed = > > overshoot was clearly visible. regards Clyve Herbert. > > > > Following up on my previous mail, I've just seen an ABC news report > of 'more than 100 millimetres in under two hours'. > > Blair > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: aus-wx: Some Gilmore Stats for February so far. A very wet month and max well below average . Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 09:08:32 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I have just put the Gilmore A.C.T. site  met data into the computor for February and some interesting facts came up.
Rainfall so far 160.1 mm on 12 days .The most in February  since I started in 1983. Heaviest 24 hours total 65.5mm on 5th a new record!
Average Min Temp. 12.8 (norm. 12.9) Average Max Temp 23.3 (norm. 26.2). So average nights and cooler than average days due to cloud cover being much above average. A very cool spell from 4th to 6th  Max were 4th 14.7, 5th 14.5, 6th 15.2. We have had no days above 30 degrees! This is the first time since I started recording the weather in Canberra in 1983! With only today and tomorrow to go I don't think these figures will change much. All details will be published in the Chronicle next week.
The country around Canberra is as green as it normally is in Spring . I don't think I have ever seen it so green in late Summer.
Regards all
Gavin O'Brien
Southside weather Watch
NOTE ; any one around Canberra on the list , can I invite you to join AMOS (Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society)  A.C.T. Centre's AGM at the Great Wall Chinese Restraunt 113 Marcus Clarke Street Civic  at 7.30 pm Thursday 21st March Guest Speaker Henry Nix talk 'A bioclimatic analysis of Terra Australis: or one small continent,one large island and a smaller island'  More details? contact me or Clem Davis at the Canberra Office of BOM.
my e-mail is
From: "nandina morris" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: The low that just won't give up Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 11:12:32 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I thought there must be something up as I watched not only the rain, but the sizeable hail, falling sideways. Keep the information coming - although I don't understand much of the whys and wherefores, I do appreciate the words of those who do. The pictures from Jane and the lister from Knoxfield (I used to live there) were excellent. I think I was watching - and photographing - the same cloud as I made my way to Moorabbin, at around 1p.m. Cheers, Nandina ----- Original Message ----- From: Jane ONeill To: Aussie Weather Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 12:00 AM Subject: aus-wx: The low that just won't give up > All, > > You have to be impressed with that gi-normous (new technical term - Ants > take note!!) monsoon low that just will not give up....... > http://www.eng.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/ausvlast.gif > > Weather across the country is being, and will continue to be affected by > this!!! I can't ever remember seeing a system quite this spectacular. > > Jane > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.325 / Virus Database: 182 - Release Date: 2/19/02 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Some Gilmore Stats for February so far. A very wet month and max well below average . Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 11:52:24 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2002 00:52:24.0439 (UTC) FILETIME=[052B9070:01C1BF29] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

G'day Gavin

Thanks for your data.  In Duffy we've had 206 mm and I think the Airport has topped this figure.  Only other summer when it's been so green, since I've been here, was 1995, after the big drop we had in January that year.

Some interesting mid day convection happening now, who knows we may even get more before this month is done.

Michael

>From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN"
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To:
>Subject: aus-wx: Some Gilmore Stats for February so far. A very wet month and max well below average .
>Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 09:08:32 +1100
>
>I have just put the Gilmore A.C.T. site met data into the computor for February and some interesting facts came up.
>Rainfall so far 160.1 mm on 12 days .The most in February since I started in 1983. Heaviest 24 hours total 65.5mm on 5th a new record!
>Average Min Temp. 12.8 (norm. 12.9) Average Max Temp 23.3 (norm. 26.2). So average nights and cooler than average days due to cloud cover being much above average. A very cool spell from 4th to 6th Max were 4th 14.7, 5th 14.5, 6th 15.2. We have had no days above 30 degrees! This is the first time since I started recording the weather in Canberra in 1983! With only today and tomorrow to go I don't think these figures will change much. All details will be published in the Chronicle next week.
>The country around Canberra is as green as it normally is in Spring . I don't think I have ever seen it so green in late Summer.
>Regards all
>Gavin O'Brien
>Southside weather Watch
>NOTE ; any one around Canberra on the list , can I invite you to join AMOS (Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society) A.C.T. Centre's AGM at the Great Wall Chinese Restraunt 113 Marcus Clarke Street Civic at 7.30 pm Thursday 21st March Guest Speaker Henry Nix talk 'A bioclimatic analysis of Terra Australis: or one small continent,one large island and a smaller island' More details? contact me or Clem Davis at the Canberra Office of BOM.
>my e-mail is
>mrcenterprises at bigpond.com.au or our new email address southsidewhr at yahoo.com.au


Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com.
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Some Gilmore Stats for February so far. A very wet month and max well below average . Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 11:01:53 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Wow, I can only wish for someting like that in Brisbane.  Summer rains (since Dec 1) have basically failed except for a few thunderstorms (which is always very hit and miss) and 30 odd mm last Friday night.  Definitely the driest summer I can recall in SEQ.  Creeks in my area (just West of Brissy) are all dry, which is extremely rare for late Feb.  By way of contrast, last Feb we had 280mm with similar the year before.
 
John.
>snip
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of GAVIN O'BRIEN
Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 8:09 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Some Gilmore Stats for February so far. A very wet month and max well below average .

I have just put the Gilmore A.C.T. site  met data into the computor for February and some interesting facts came up.
Rainfall so far 160.1 mm on 12 days .The most in February  since I started in 1983. Heaviest 24 hours total 65.5mm on 5th a new record!
Average Min Temp. 12.8 (norm. 12.9) Average Max Temp 23.3 (norm. 26.2). So average nights and cooler than average days due to cloud cover being much above average. A very cool spell from 4th to 6th  Max were 4th 14.7, 5th 14.5, 6th 15.2. We have had no days above 30 degrees! This is the first time since I started recording the weather in Canberra in 1983! With only today and tomorrow to go I don't think these figures will change much. All details will be published in the Chronicle next week.
The country around Canberra is as green as it normally is in Spring . I don't think I have ever seen it so green in late Summer.
Regards all
Gavin O'Brien
Southside weather Watch
NOTE ; any one around Canberra on the list , can I invite you to join AMOS (Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society)  A.C.T. Centre's AGM at the Great Wall Chinese Restraunt 113 Marcus Clarke Street Civic  at 7.30 pm Thursday 21st March Guest Speaker Henry Nix talk 'A bioclimatic analysis of Terra Australis: or one small continent,one large island and a smaller island'  More details? contact me or Clem Davis at the Canberra Office of BOM.
my e-mail is
Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 10:49:49 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropo talk. X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey Clyve, It is never out of season to have a tropical disturbance in this neck of the woods. TCs have been recorded in every month of the year. Yeah, they do get fewer in the winter so some months do miss out, but they can appear round these parts any time at all. Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 09:28:18 +1100 Subject: aus-wx: Tropo talk. > Hi all. > An interesting out of season tropical disturbance at 150east and about > 8 degrees north is looking interesting this morning drifting west at > the tip of a mid lat upper trough, also the chocolate freckle looking > tropical low near Vila is still edging southward towards New Caledonia > though appears to show limited surface convergence upper divergence > seems ok. regards Clyve H. > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [202.5.161.1] From: "David Sercombe" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: Some Gilmore Stats for February so far. A very wet month and max wel Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 03:11:58 +0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2002 03:11:59.0005 (UTC) FILETIME=[84CCECD0:01C1BF3C] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com It's been very dry in NE NSW as well during the summer. Here in Coffs Harbour, we're still on Level 5 water restrictions (the highest we've had in years) even though we've scored 400mm+ during the first week of February. The water simply 'ran straight off the top of the ground' so to speak!!!! Our water storage dam is right on (or very close to) 50% full and they reckon that we'll run out of water in June if we don't get any prolonged rainfall soon. _________________________________________________________________ Join the world’s largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail. http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Just in theory To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 14:09:21 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > This is a multi-part message in MIME format. > > ------=_NextPart_000_000F_01C1BF01.113D7F40 > Content-Type: text/plain; > charset="iso-8859-1" > Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > > I've always had this little nagging thought in the back of my head which = > may get me committed one day. > Just in theory. If say Melbourne had a 40 degree day and there were a = > million air con's running (possible), and a fair bit of this gets = > released to atmosphere with leakages etc. Would the day have been well = > into the 40's there but never made it because of all these factors? > Say for instance that they were all evap type coolers and released lots = > more moisture into the air during this "hot" day. Would it help with = > storm potential with the added humidity? > OK. I'm coming back to my room now........ Artificial heat sources (such as waste heat from heaters/air conditioners) are well-known to be one of several contributing factors to the urban heat-island effect, although most probably a realtively small one. In any case, urban heat islands tend to be much more pronounced at night than they are during the day. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 11:08:32 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Never mind tuning antennas in thunderstorms ... Everyone knows that modems should be unplugged when thunderstorms arrive, right? And people paid to be experts like me know that even better, right? So a client calls me out some years ago to sort out his Internet problems in an isolated house up in the mountains. Just as I'm about to start work we hear the first rumbles of thunder. We decided to go ahead anyway. Just got the modem working and got online successfully when there was one tremendous FLANG as lightning struck the anti-burglary grille over the window that was about a foot behind the monitor. How do I know it struck there? Because of all the molten metal falling off the thing like when somebody's welding. But that was not the end of it, within a second or so we had a hair-raising (literally) visitation as ball-lightning entered the room through that same window, passed between the two of us who were seated one each side of the PC, hit the fridge, bounced down on the floor and then went out of the house again through the window (or it actually appeared to pass through the wall!) on the other side of the kitchen. Through it all the Internet connection remained live, the modem never missed a beat, and it worked okay for years afterwards. Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: Jimmy Deguara To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tue, 26 Feb 2002 18:51:30 +1100 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) > Hi Tony, > > Great analogy - I like it. > > Weather related - very humid and very warm day. Some cumulus around but > nothing I would waste my time over. Perhaps the next couple of days > will > bring some more significant rainfall. We had 26.2mm from the rain > overnight > last night and yesterday afternoon. > > The paddocks are very green - the sheep are enjoying this time of > surplus > supply of food!!!! > > Jimmy Deguara > > At 05:40 PM 26/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: > >At 10:52 PM 25/02/2002 +1100, John Graham wrote: > > > > > >>Hi Tony, Everyone, > >> > >>Why is it that some poeple insist on using their radio's during a > >>storm???...I've talked to heaps of people who are on air during > storms. > >>I always disconnect the coax when ther's lightning about....just > scared that > >>if I transmit, lightning might get attracted to the electrical(?) > current > >>going up the antenna..... > > > >That's not likely.. Biggest problem is the antenna itself. Not an > issue > >with little AM portables though. > > > >BTW, seems to be a good way to attract storms - do something that you > >can't do during a storm. Like the smokers who light up while waiting > for > >a bus... seems to work for them (the bus comes). :) > > > >73 de Tony, VK3JED > >http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- > + > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: fluffy.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 14:47:31 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Subject: aus-wx: Oceanography website Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all This site was mentioned during the AMOS conference, and may interesting to some: http://www.metoc.gov.au/ Check under 'AODC Products' for stuff like SSTs, salinty and animations. I had a quick browse and it looks interesting. Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: aus-wx: Adelaide likely to have lowest summer mean max on record To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 14:52:14 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Adelaide's mean maximum for summer is currently sitting on 25.6, below the previous record of 25.7 set in 1948/49. With neither today nor tomorrow likely to reach 25 this record should be broken. Melbourne will probably come in at 24.1 (perhaps 24.0 if tomorrow is below 20). This is well short of a record but will rank equal 14th in 147 years, putting it in the bottom decile. Strangely, this will be the eighth consecutive summer in which Melbourne's mean summer max has been in one of the extreme deciles (two in decile 1, six in decile 10). It is also the eighth summer which I've spent in Melbourne :-) In the case of Adelaide, I'm combining records from two sites, but overlapping data suggests that the difference in maximum temperatures between them is a couple of tenths at most (the new site is somewhat cooler for minima, though). Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Some Gilmore Stats for February so far. A very wet month and max well below average . To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 15:03:30 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > This is a multi-part message in MIME format. > > ------=_NextPart_000_0065_01C1BF6E.549456C0 > Content-Type: text/plain; > charset="iso-8859-1" > Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > > I have just put the Gilmore A.C.T. site met data into the computor for = > February and some interesting facts came up. > Rainfall so far 160.1 mm on 12 days .The most in February since I = > started in 1983. Heaviest 24 hours total 65.5mm on 5th a new record!=20 > Average Min Temp. 12.8 (norm. 12.9) Average Max Temp 23.3 (norm. 26.2). = > So average nights and cooler than average days due to cloud cover being = > much above average. A very cool spell from 4th to 6th Max were 4th = > 14.7, 5th 14.5, 6th 15.2. We have had no days above 30 degrees! This is = > the first time since I started recording the weather in Canberra in = > 1983! With only today and tomorrow to go I don't think these figures = > will change much. All details will be published in the Chronicle next = > week. What's your elevation, Gavin? I ask because I'm quite surprised that you didn't make 30 on the 2nd; the airport was 32 and I wouldn't expect that large a difference in a maximum temperature unless you're getting close to the 700-metre mark (the airport is 560). Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [202.5.161.1] From: "David Sercombe" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 04:14:33 +0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2002 04:14:33.0597 (UTC) FILETIME=[42B632D0:01C1BF45] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com If anyone if looking at the Grafton radar ATM (3:00pm), they will see some light showers about with the odd yellow in places. This is due to some unusual development of mainly Cj's, which now some may have moved into a Cb formation. To my west at Coffs Harbour, I can see a Cj/Cb with a dark base. I can't see much of the rest of its structure due to the mid level strato Cu around. There also seems to be a line of showers at this stage heading towards Grafton. David Sercombe Coffs Harbour NE NSW _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.40.162.166] From: "ROBERT HALL" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 04:48:00 +0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2002 04:48:00.0474 (UTC) FILETIME=[EEE753A0:01C1BF49] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

David,

I am new to ASWA, but not new to meteorology, having been a flier for 40 years.

I also used to teach this subject, but you guys use terms and abreviations that I never heard of.

My query: what the hell is a Cj?

Rob Hall

>From: "David Sercombe"
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW
>Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 04:14:33 +0000
>
>If anyone if looking at the Grafton radar ATM (3:00pm), they will
>see some
>light showers about with the odd yellow in places. This is due to
>some
>unusual development of mainly Cj's, which now some may have moved
>into a Cb
>formation. To my west at Coffs Harbour, I can see a Cj/Cb with a
>dark base.
>I can't see much of the rest of its structure due to the mid level
>strato Cu
>around. There also seems to be a line of showers at this stage
>heading
>towards Grafton.
>
>David Sercombe
>Coffs Harbour NE NSW
>
>_________________________________________________________________
>Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at
>http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp.
>
>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
>to:majordomo at world.std.com
>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
>your
>message.
>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: Click Here
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Phil Smith" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Oceanography website Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 12:47:39 +0800 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Somebody needs to tell them that "Logitude" should have an "N" in it. Every SST query spells it incorrectly. It just glares right off the page at you. Phil <>< Doctor Disk Limited 17C Carmel Heights Belair Gardens Shatin, NT Hong Kong E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm ----- Original Message ----- From: "Robert Goler" To: Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 11:47 AM Subject: aus-wx: Oceanography website > > Hi all > > This site was mentioned during the AMOS conference, and may interesting to > some: > > http://www.metoc.gov.au/ > > Check under 'AODC Products' for stuff like SSTs, salinty and animations. > > I had a quick browse and it looks interesting. > > > Cheers > > -- > > Robert A. Goler > > School of Mathematical Sciences > Monash University > Clayton, Vic 3800 > Australia > > ph. +61 3 9905 4424 > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: "Aussie weather" Subject: aus-wx: Canberra Obs 16:00hrs Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 16:04:19 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2002 05:02:53.0493 (UTC) FILETIME=[032F3650:01C1BF4C] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Cu have been building all day and have now developed into isloated showers to the North and East of the ACT. TCu all around at the moment and temp is sitting around 29C with a Dp of 12C, seems to be clearing to the west but still building S/N/E of ACT. We could still get rain/storms overnight once the seabreeze kicks in, but im not holding my breath. Cheers Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 www.canberra-wx.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 16:11:40 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2002 05:10:14.0484 (UTC) FILETIME=[0A091940:01C1BF4D] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Robert et all
 
Cj = Cumulus Congestus
 
Look here for a great clasification gallery
 
Simon Angell
Canberra ACT
ICQ# 128920513
www.canberra-wx.com
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 3:48 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW

David,

I am new to ASWA, but not new to meteorology, having been a flier for 40 years.

I also used to teach this subject, but you guys use terms and abreviations that I never heard of.

My query: what the hell is a Cj?

Rob Hall

>From: "David Sercombe"
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW
>Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 04:14:33 +0000
>
>If anyone if looking at the Grafton radar ATM (3:00pm), they will
>see some
>light showers about with the odd yellow in places. This is due to
>some
>unusual development of mainly Cj's, which now some may have moved
>into a Cb
>formation. To my west at Coffs Harbour, I can see a Cj/Cb with a
>dark base.
>I can't see much of the rest of its structure due to the mid level
>strato Cu
>around. There also seems to be a line of showers at this stage
>heading
>towards Grafton.
>
>David Sercombe
>Coffs Harbour NE NSW
>
>_________________________________________________________________
>Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at
>http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp.
>
>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
>to:majordomo at world.std.com
>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
>your
>message.
>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: Click Here
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Mark Hardy" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 16:23:43 +1100 Organization: The Weather Company X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I always thought the abbreviation for Cumulus congestus was CuCg or Cu2 (as in cumulus type 2) Regards, Mark Hardy The Weather Company Pty. Ltd. http://www.theweather.com.au -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Simon Angell Sent: Wednesday, 27 February 2002 4:12 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW Hi Robert et all Cj = Cumulus Congestus Look here for a great clasification gallery http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/index.html Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 www.canberra-wx.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: jacob at mail.iinet.net.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1 Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 13:21:23 +0800 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jacob Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide likely to have lowest summer mean max on record Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Perth's weather this summer looks like it will be near average, however we still havent had any 100F (37.8C) plus days yet. The highest so far has been 37.4C I'm not totally sure, but I think in over 100 years of records at the "city" site we have only had 1 summer when we did not reach the old century. Perth Airport got to 38C on Sunday and I think it also got to 38C earlier in the summer. Only two or so days over the old century would have to be close to a record for them. Jacob At 02:52 PM 27/02/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Adelaide's mean maximum for summer is currently sitting on 25.6, >below the previous record of 25.7 set in 1948/49. With neither >today nor tomorrow likely to reach 25 this record should be broken. > >Melbourne will probably come in at 24.1 (perhaps 24.0 if tomorrow >is below 20). This is well short of a record but will rank equal >14th in 147 years, putting it in the bottom decile. Strangely, this >will be the eighth consecutive summer in which Melbourne's mean >summer max has been in one of the extreme deciles (two in decile 1, >six in decile 10). It is also the eighth summer which I've spent in >Melbourne :-) > >In the case of Adelaide, I'm combining records from two sites, but >overlapping data suggests that the difference in maximum temperatures >between them is a couple of tenths at most (the new site is somewhat >cooler for minima, though). > >Blair > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 16:38:44 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2002 05:37:18.0422 (UTC) FILETIME=[D1FA5F60:01C1BF50] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The Abbrev came from Clive herbert i believe. :) Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 www.canberra-wx.com ----- Original Message ----- From: "Mark Hardy" To: Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 4:23 PM Subject: RE: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW > I always thought the abbreviation for Cumulus congestus was CuCg or Cu2 > (as in cumulus type 2) > > Regards, > Mark Hardy > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd. > http://www.theweather.com.au > -----Original Message----- > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Simon Angell > Sent: Wednesday, 27 February 2002 4:12 PM > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW > > > Hi Robert et all > > Cj = Cumulus Congestus > > Look here for a great clasification gallery > http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/index.html > > Simon Angell > Canberra ACT > ICQ# 128920513 > www.canberra-wx.com > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 16:44:36 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Robert, Just last week I posted a link with a list of Australian weather abbreviations I have collected. Perhaps you hadn't joined until just recently! The link is: http://www.downunderchase.com/miscellaneous/chaserdictionary.html Some of these abbreviations are used infrequently, others like "CJ" is used nearly everyday by many Australian weather enthusiasts. AC ROBERT HALL wrote: > > David, > > I am new to ASWA, but not new to meteorology, having been a flier for > 40 years. > > I also used to teach this subject, but you guys use terms and > abreviations that I never heard of. > > My query: what the hell is a Cj? > > Rob Hall > > >From: "David Sercombe" > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > >Subject: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW > >Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 04:14:33 +0000 > > > >If anyone if looking at the Grafton radar ATM (3:00pm), they will > >see some > >light showers about with the odd yellow in places. This is due to > >some > >unusual development of mainly Cj's, which now some may have moved > >into a Cb > >formation. To my west at Coffs Harbour, I can see a Cj/Cb with a > >dark base. > >I can't see much of the rest of its structure due to the mid level > >strato Cu > >around. There also seems to be a line of showers at this stage > >heading > >towards Grafton. > > > >David Sercombe > >Coffs Harbour NE NSW > > > >_________________________________________________________________ > >Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at > >http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. > > > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > >to:majordomo at world.std.com > >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > >your > >message. > >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: Click > Here > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather > your_email_address" in the body of your message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 202.12.87.169 X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 17:59:59 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 11:08 AM 27/02/2002 +0800, you wrote: >Never mind tuning antennas in thunderstorms ... Wow!!!!!! :-) That must have been rather scary at the time, but maybe we can come up with a list of ways to attract storms? So far, we have: Tuning antennas Fixing modems/Internet connections :-) 73 de Tony, VK3JED http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net From: "Keith Barnett" To: "Weather list" Subject: aus-wx: Another Sydney storm Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 19:10:33 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Just had 14.4mm in 10 minutes. Winds to 70 or 80 km at its peak but nothing as severe as the last one.
X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 202.12.87.169 X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2002 21:46:20 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" Subject: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Another night of good storm activity in Melbourne! :-) At 7:30PM, a large cell approached from the west, accompanied by quite a bit of lightning. I had been watching this one for a while. Just after 7:30, it took out the power (of course, when I wanted to record something on the video :-/ ), so that left an even better excuse to sit and watch the action outside, which was intensifying rapidly. When the gust front came (probably around 7:40), it was obvious the storm meant business. The door had to be closed (to avoid a flood!) until the wind settled again. Rain was intense and maintained a high rate for about 15 mins or more (probably over 40mm/hr), but the lightning tended to stay away. No flangs (nearest discharge was still around 1km away, and it was mostly CC by this time). By 8PM, the body of the cell had cleared, and the power was back on, but a bit later, a second cell materialised out of nowhere and dumped more rain for about 10 minutes. Somehow, between all that, I managed to tune a couple of antennas (is that inviting a lightning strike or what? :) ) and determined that 18 MHz is a good band for monitoring relatively close lightning strikes (10-20km away) - if 18 MHz crackles, get ready! :). When the meter hits S9, DUCK!!! (it's < 3km away) :) Anyway, the fun seems to be over now. :) 73 de Tony, VK3JED http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net From: "Steve Baynham" To: "weather" Subject: aus-wx: friday storms from the plane Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 18:31:44 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hey all,
am going on a working holiday to canberra on friday via qantas for two weeks. gunna be working with my brother and then afterwards maybe stay there for a year or two or i dunno. anyway, i'm blabbering.
storms are forecast and i could have a good time in the plane if i get a window seat. will have to get there early!! i will have my camera, should be good.
so speak to yas in a couple of weeks.
cya
 
 
Steve Baynham
icq : 26863574
 
Brisbane Storm Chasers
http://www.bsch.au.com
 
 
Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
 

 
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 20:12:27 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2002 09:13:29.0665 (UTC) FILETIME=[0570FB10:01C1BF6F] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello all. To put the record right, the abbreviation Cj was used by me to define a difference between Cg which I used as a lightning description and Cj was used to describe congesting cumulus and the word congesting sounds like it is using a "j" instead of a "g", for one reason or another my original use of Cj has spread, although most weather people now use it. Mark Hardy has put the official abbrev which is correct. So I guess that Cj is really a jargon word. regards Clyve Herbert. ----- Original Message ----- From: Simon Angell To: Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 4:38 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW > The Abbrev came from Clive herbert i believe. :) > > > Simon Angell > Canberra ACT > ICQ# 128920513 > www.canberra-wx.com > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Mark Hardy" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 4:23 PM > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW > > > > I always thought the abbreviation for Cumulus congestus was CuCg or Cu2 > > (as in cumulus type 2) > > > > Regards, > > Mark Hardy > > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd. > > http://www.theweather.com.au > > -----Original Message----- > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Simon Angell > > Sent: Wednesday, 27 February 2002 4:12 PM > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting developments in NE NSW > > > > > > Hi Robert et all > > > > Cj = Cumulus Congestus > > > > Look here for a great clasification gallery > > http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/index.html > > > > Simon Angell > > Canberra ACT > > ICQ# 128920513 > > www.canberra-wx.com > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 20:25:56 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Tony, can you add washing cars to the list please - it's worked a treat in Melbourne & surrounding areas so far during February!! I could have the cleanest car around at this rate.........& the time lag works out to be 52 hours on average Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- > At 11:08 AM 27/02/2002 +0800, you wrote: > > >Never mind tuning antennas in thunderstorms ... > > Wow!!!!!! :-) > > That must have been rather scary at the time, but maybe we can come up with > a list of ways to attract storms? > > So far, we have: > > Tuning antennas > Fixing modems/Internet connections > > :-) > > 73 de Tony, VK3JED > http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropo talk. Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 20:30:33 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2002 09:31:25.0652 (UTC) FILETIME=[86C79140:01C1BF71] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Phil, Thanks, Its nice to have an area of the globe that has a near 12 month Typhoon season, the locals in that area would have learned to keep a watchful eye to the east all year round I suppose. Have you had any weather this winter yet?, every time I check your area out its mostly clear of any major cloud, although it seems that narrow cloud band extending from near Rangoon to the baroclinic leaf just west of Korea appears to be of some interest. regards Clyve Herbert. ----- Original Message ----- From: Phil Smith To: Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 1:49 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropo talk. > Hey Clyve, > It is never out of season to have a tropical disturbance in this neck of > the woods. TCs have been recorded in every month of the year. Yeah, they > do get fewer in the winter so some months do miss out, but they can > appear round these parts any time at all. > > Phil > <>< > > International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk > Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk > Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk > Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: "Clyve Herbert" > To: > Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 09:28:18 +1100 > Subject: aus-wx: Tropo talk. > > > Hi all. > > An interesting out of season tropical disturbance at 150east and about > > 8 degrees north is looking interesting this morning drifting west at > > the tip of a mid lat upper trough, also the chocolate freckle looking > > tropical low near Vila is still edging southward towards New Caledonia > > though appears to show limited surface convergence upper divergence > > seems ok. regards Clyve H. > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 202.12.87.169 X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 20:37:57 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 08:25 PM 27/02/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Hi Tony, > >can you add washing cars to the list please - it's worked a treat in >Melbourne & surrounding areas so far during February!! I could have the >cleanest car around at this rate.........& the time lag works out to be 52 >hours on average OK, I knew that brought rain, but I didn't think it worked for storms as well. :) Well, when I get a few more submissions, I might send you a canonical list for the web site :) 73 de Tony, VK3JED http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net From: "richard modistach" To: "weather mailing list" Subject: Fw: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 20:16:25 +1030 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com ----- Original Message ----- From: Tony Langdon (VK3JED) To: Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 5:29 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) > At 11:08 AM 27/02/2002 +0800, you wrote: > > >Never mind tuning antennas in thunderstorms ... > > Wow!!!!!! :-) > > That must have been rather scary at the time, but maybe we can come up with > a list of ways to attract storms? > > So far, we have: > > Tuning antennas > Fixing modems/Internet connections > > :-) > > 73 de Tony, VK3JED > http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net > if youv'e got clear skies and mild sunny days, make solid plans for any outdoor activity EXEPT stormchasing. garanteed to work just about every time +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 20:40:13 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2002 09:38:52.0126 (UTC) FILETIME=[90E617E0:01C1BF72] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Clyve and others, I was able to catch quite a lot of lightning from these cells on video (about 50 minutes worth) but I am yet to review the footage. I'll keep an eye out for sprites given that my vantage point would've given quite a clear view of any. Macca ----- Original Message ----- From: Clyve Herbert To: Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 9:14 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. > Hi Blair and all. > A further phone call from Julian Hollis yesterday in respect to the > lightning type associated with this Mt Alexander storm was the appearance of > "sprites" extending upwards from the CB top on at least two > occasions.regards Clyve Herbert. > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Blair Trewin > To: > Sent: Tuesday, February 26, 2002 2:17 PM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. > > > > > > > > This is a multi-part message in MIME format. > > > > > > ------=_NextPart_000_0009_01C1BEBB.7FD1C420 > > > Content-Type: text/plain; > > > charset="iso-8859-1" > > > Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > > > > > > Hi all. > > > Some of you may have watched a remarkable lightning show north of = > > > Melbourne last night between 2100hrs and 2300hrs, this storm/storms were > = > > > producing at times between 40 and 60 lightning discharges per minute = > > > (peak between 2130 and 2230). Julian Hollis from Trentham reports that a > = > > > location near Mt Alexander (south of Bendigo) recorded 68mm in just over > = > > > half an hour around the above times last night, with fences washed away > = > > > and some stock loss. The lightning was so frequent that the domed = > > > overshoot was clearly visible. regards Clyve Herbert. > > > > > > > Redesdale, which would also have been in the path of this storm, got > > 39mm in not terribly long before its phone connection went down the > > gurgler (I've only got hourly data, so all I can conclude is that > > they got 19mm in the hour 2100-2200 and another 20 before its > > connection went down sometime before 2300). > > > > Blair > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 202.12.87.169 X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 20:53:05 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 08:25 PM 27/02/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Hi Tony, > >can you add washing cars to the list please - it's worked a treat in >Melbourne & surrounding areas so far during February!! I could have the >cleanest car around at this rate.........& the time lag works out to be 52 >hours on average Actually, we (me and flatmate) have worked out the cause of our cold, wet and somewhat stormy summer. I bought a (almost) new car in September! Of course, it's only a few years old, and regularly washed... :) Seems our combined efforts have had a radical effect on the climate. ;-) 73 de Tony, VK3JED http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net From: "Steven Markham" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Another Sydney storm Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 21:02:43 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Any reports of hail tonight around Sydney? If so, how big? Thanks All!
Stevo
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Keith Barnett
Sent: Wednesday, 27 February 2002 7:11 PM
To: Weather list
Subject: aus-wx: Another Sydney storm

Just had 14.4mm in 10 minutes. Winds to 70 or 80 km at its peak but nothing as severe as the last one.
X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 202.12.87.169 X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 21:20:36 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" Subject: Re: Fw: aus-wx: Melb storm! :) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 08:16 PM 27/02/2002 +1030, you wrote: >if youv'e got clear skies and mild sunny days, make solid plans for any >outdoor activity EXEPT stormchasing. garanteed to work just about every time LOL, ta :) 73 de Tony, VK3JED http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 202.12.87.169 X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2002 22:08:28 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne storm images Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 09:33 PM 25/02/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Hi all > >Some storms developed and passed through Melbourne this arvo/evening, and >here are some captures that I took: Nice pics. Well done! 73 de Tony, VK3JED http://vk3jed.vk.irlp.net From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: Met terminology Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 22:12:25 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening all, Gotta love the terminology used by Met Services in various countries... this from the NZ Met Service's current severe weather outlook... "MetService forecasters believe there is enough juice in and around the front to produce a brief but significant burst of heavy rain. The worst of the northwesterly rain should affect Fiordland before mid-Thursday morning while the Westland ranges can expect their dose during the day." ahem....... definitions please.... 1) juice 2) dose If you are interested in the warnings then start here http://www.metservice.co.nz/maps/index.asp Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Cloud band SA & Vic. Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 22:59:28 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2002 12:00:26.0690 (UTC) FILETIME=[580DB220:01C1BF86] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
Although not appearing in any forecast or outlook that's not a bad upper cloud band (baroclinic mid and upper levels) presently sneaking up on the northwest of Victoria, emanating from the remains of moisture outflow from WA . regards Clyve H.
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 23:17:40 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2002 12:18:38.0818 (UTC) FILETIME=[E3033420:01C1BF88] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Macca. This storm occasionally "stuck a leg out of bed" (clear air discharge) some of which seemed to spark a remarkable distance from the parent cloud, it would be interesting if you managed to capture some of those. regards Clyve H. ----- Original Message ----- From: Andrew To: Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 8:40 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. > Clyve and others, > > I was able to catch quite a lot of lightning from these cells on video > (about 50 minutes worth) but I am yet to review the footage. I'll keep an > eye out for sprites given that my vantage point would've given quite a clear > view of any. > > Macca > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Clyve Herbert > To: > Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 9:14 AM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. > > > > Hi Blair and all. > > A further phone call from Julian Hollis yesterday in respect to the > > lightning type associated with this Mt Alexander storm was the appearance > of > > "sprites" extending upwards from the CB top on at least two > > occasions.regards Clyve Herbert. > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Blair Trewin > > To: > > Sent: Tuesday, February 26, 2002 2:17 PM > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mt Alexander storm Vic.and other bits. > > > > > > > > > > > > This is a multi-part message in MIME format. > > > > > > > > ------=_NextPart_000_0009_01C1BEBB.7FD1C420 > > > > Content-Type: text/plain; > > > > charset="iso-8859-1" > > > > Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > > > > > > > > Hi all. > > > > Some of you may have watched a remarkable lightning show north of = > > > > Melbourne last night between 2100hrs and 2300hrs, this storm/storms > were > > = > > > > producing at times between 40 and 60 lightning discharges per minute = > > > > (peak between 2130 and 2230). Julian Hollis from Trentham reports that > a > > = > > > > location near Mt Alexander (south of Bendigo) recorded 68mm in just > over > > = > > > > half an hour around the above times last night, with fences washed > away > > = > > > > and some stock loss. The lightning was so frequent that the domed = > > > > overshoot was clearly visible. regards Clyve Herbert. > > > > > > > > > > Redesdale, which would also have been in the path of this storm, got > > > 39mm in not terribly long before its phone connection went down the > > > gurgler (I've only got hourly data, so all I can conclude is that > > > they got 19mm in the hour 2100-2200 and another 20 before its > > > connection went down sometime before 2300). > > > > > > Blair > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 08:36:13 +0930 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Phil Bagust Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide likely to have lowest summer mean max on record Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Adelaide's mean maximum for summer is currently sitting on 25.6, >below the previous record of 25.7 set in 1948/49. With neither >today nor tomorrow likely to reach 25 this record should be broken. Not the kind of record that makes for interesting weather! Hardly saw a congesting cumulus all summer. Now stratocu - that's a different matter........ Phil +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.29.156.5] From: "T Middleton" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: lightning photo - feb 1 Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 22:09:38 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2002 22:09:38.0989 (UTC) FILETIME=[72EBE5D0:01C1BFDB] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com hi all, below is a photo from the storms we got in southern Victoria on the 1st of Feb. this year. The storms over the ranges looked awesome from our location. unfortunatley i didn't chase this day as it was my fathers funeral. Although i did manage to take a few lightning photos late at night on my way home. http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils/020201_04.htm lots more from the last few months to come some stage in the future kind regards Tony Middleton http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils cya tm http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com)" Subject: aus-wx: rain in Melbourne? Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 09:31:43 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Hi Tony, > >can you add washing cars to the list please - it's worked a treat in >Melbourne & surrounding areas so far during February!! I could have the >cleanest car around at this rate.........& the time lag works out to be 52 >hours on average > >Jane Geez Jane... speak for yourself :-) . Some of us in the usually rainy east have been well and truly ripped off since late January, e.g., we clocked a monster 0.3mm on Monday! While Knoxfield ~5km as the crow flies had ~22mm. I even washed the car on Sunday night.. To underscore how grim things are, a friend of mine who records in Mt Waverly has outscored my gauge 4 out of the last 5 rain events, with a February total of near 200% of normal compared to my Ferny Creek total of about 90% of normal... grrr. He even had the cheek to suggest we rename Mt Dandenong to Mt Arid. Anyway, back to work. Cheer, DJ Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.29.156.4] From: "T Middleton" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: lightning photo - feb 1 Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 22:57:08 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Feb 2002 22:57:08.0794 (UTC) FILETIME=[1589A1A0:01C1BFE2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com hi again, sorry about the 'nothing post' here. actually rereading that it should have read "I didn't chase this day as unfortunatley it was my fathers funeral." not 'unfortunatley i didn't chase this day as it was my fathers funeral.' *just had to clear that up for myself :) regards Tony Middleton >-----Original Message----- >From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com >[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of T Middleton >Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 22:10 >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: aus-wx: lightning photo - feb 1 > > >hi all, >below is a photo from the storms we got in southern Victoria on the 1st of >Feb. this year. The storms over the ranges looked awesome from our >location. >unfortunatley i didn't chase this day as it was my fathers funeral. >Although >i did manage to take a few lightning photos late at night on my way home. > >http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils/020201_04.htm > >lots more from the last few months to come some stage in the future > >kind regards Tony Middleton >http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils > > > > >cya tm >http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils > > >_________________________________________________________________ >Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ cya tm http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils _________________________________________________________________ Join the world’s largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail. http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 11:41:38 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List , Wx-Chase Subject: aus-wx: New Chase Reports Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I've uploaded three new chase reports, Jan 12 had some nice updrafts, Jan 17 ended up being great in the end with a great wallcloud! And Feb 22 had some really nice gusters... http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/01-02/index.html They're the top 3 -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Tony Middleton lightning. Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 14:35:52 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Feb 2002 03:36:44.0933 (UTC) FILETIME=[24E54B50:01C1C009] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Tony.
Your lightning photograph is 1st class stuff ,congratulations its one of the best I have seen, the balance with the water does the trick. best regards Clyve Herbert.
From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra Obs 16:00hrs Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 18:26:34 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Simon , its 1830 and of course the action moved well east as the weak trough the Bureau mentioned passed over us by 1730 We had strong winds early this afternoon Westerly to 56 km/hr at 1325 by 1800 it was calm notice just now (1830)the Easterly has arrived temp down to 23.1 with wind east south east at 19/25 km/hr temp falling rapidly. That ends any chance of activity. note couln't acess avn site a few minutes ago why?John Ringwood reckons the temp at Braidwood down to 15! Gavin O'Brien SSWW ----- Original Message ----- From: "Simon Angell" To: "Aussie weather" Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 4:04 PM Subject: aus-wx: Canberra Obs 16:00hrs > Cu have been building all day and have now developed into isloated showers > to the North and East of the ACT. TCu all around at the moment and temp is > sitting around 29C with a Dp of 12C, seems to be clearing to the west but > still building S/N/E of ACT. We could still get rain/storms overnight once > the seabreeze kicks in, but im not holding my breath. > > Cheers > > Simon Angell > Canberra ACT > ICQ# 128920513 > www.canberra-wx.com > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p325-tnt4.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.135.71] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 17:21:59 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another Sydney storm Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Keith and all, This storm was reasonably fierce - whiteout conditions as I drove into it. There may have been a couple hailstones mixed in. The important observation was the turning of the winds SSW on the northern side of the storm and SE on the southern side. There was quite good overall structure with this storm. Jimmy Deguara At 07:10 PM 27/2/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Just had 14.4mm in 10 minutes. Winds to 70 or 80 km at its peak but >nothing as severe as the last one. ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 17:33:36 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Some Gilmore Stats for February so far. A very wet month and max well below average . Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com My parents' farm have only had 27mm since December 1st, 2001...absolutely shocking! Hope the upcoming shower/storm activity can bring something! -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 18:39:31 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Fantastic stuff as always ants.... you need more high quality photographs and less captures ! :-) keep up the good work ! Matt Smith Anthony Cornelius wrote: > Hi all, > > I've uploaded three new chase reports, Jan 12 had some nice updrafts, > Jan 17 ended up being great in the end with a great wallcloud! And Feb > 22 had some really nice gusters... > > http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/01-02/index.html > > They're the top 3 > > -- > Anthony Cornelius > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) > (07) 3390 4812 > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Wx humour Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 19:37:07 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I found this classic while hunting for something else, looked at the stratocu out the window & thought it was time to start the wx-humour threads again.........these are very, very clever.... ------------------------------------------------------------- Some Nomeniees from this years wx-oscars Best Actor Jimmy Deguara -- Crouching Chaser, Hidden Wallcloud (crouching tiger hidden dragon) ---the sweeping tale of a man his attempt to photograph...a storm.....150kms away Michael Bath and Dave Ellem --The Perfect Storm ---the adenelin pumped adventure of the NE NSW casino chase Anthony Cornelius--The Cell ---one man stamps his authority on the mini-cell (see the action thriller film--The ASWA AGM II-the search for a venue) Best Song Crouching Chaser, Hidden Wallcloud--"A suspisious lowering before time" (a love before time) ---"what was that?" Best Film What Lies Beneath (the rotating updraft) ---A Hitchcock-esk thriller about the mysterious of life O Chaser, Where Art thou?(o brother where art thou?) ---the story of TD2K Unchasable(unbreakable) ---the story the Putty RD Proof of LiftedIndex(proof of life) ---A psychological thriller, that delivers....sometimes... Gone in 60 seconds ---the story of this seasons Victorian Chasing And the oscar goes to: .................... dann__________________________ Daniel Weatherhead Blaxland, NSW weatherhead at ozemail.com.au SYDNEY STORM CHASERS www.sydneystormchasers.com -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: lightning photo - feb 1 Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 20:29:37 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - host1.ns4ua.com X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - world.std.com X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [0 0] / [0 0] X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - ozthunder.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Knew what you meant all along, sorry to hear about that. Michael ----- Original Message ----- From: "T Middleton" To: Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 10:57 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: lightning photo - feb 1 hi again, sorry about the 'nothing post' here. actually rereading that it should have read "I didn't chase this day as unfortunatley it was my fathers funeral." not 'unfortunatley i didn't chase this day as it was my fathers funeral.' *just had to clear that up for myself :) regards Tony Middleton >-----Original Message----- >From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com >[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of T Middleton >Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 22:10 >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: aus-wx: lightning photo - feb 1 > > >hi all, >below is a photo from the storms we got in southern Victoria on the 1st of >Feb. this year. The storms over the ranges looked awesome from our >location. >unfortunatley i didn't chase this day as it was my fathers funeral. >Although >i did manage to take a few lightning photos late at night on my way home. > >http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils/020201_04.htm > >lots more from the last few months to come some stage in the future > >kind regards Tony Middleton >http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils > > > > >cya tm >http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils > > >_________________________________________________________________ >Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ cya tm http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils _________________________________________________________________ Join the world’s largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail. http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Wx humour Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 20:35:02 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Feb 2002 09:33:32.0569 (UTC) FILETIME=[FCD75090:01C1C03A] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com That is a classic :) Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 www.canberra-wx.com ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Sent: Thursday, February 28, 2002 7:37 PM Subject: aus-wx: Wx humour > I found this classic while hunting for something else, looked at the > stratocu out the window & thought it was time to start the wx-humour > threads again.........these are very, very clever.... > > ------------------------------------------------------------- > > Some Nomeniees from this years wx-oscars > > Best Actor > > Jimmy Deguara -- Crouching Chaser, Hidden Wallcloud (crouching tiger > hidden dragon) > ---the sweeping tale of a man his attempt to photograph...a > storm.....150kms away > Michael Bath and Dave Ellem --The Perfect Storm > ---the adenelin pumped adventure of the NE NSW casino chase > Anthony Cornelius--The Cell > ---one man stamps his authority on the mini-cell (see the action > thriller film--The ASWA AGM II-the search for a venue) > > Best Song > > Crouching Chaser, Hidden Wallcloud--"A suspisious lowering before time" > (a love before time) > ---"what was that?" > > Best Film > > What Lies Beneath (the rotating updraft) > ---A Hitchcock-esk thriller about the mysterious of life > > O Chaser, Where Art thou?(o brother where art thou?) > ---the story of TD2K > > Unchasable(unbreakable) > ---the story the Putty RD > > Proof of LiftedIndex(proof of life) > ---A psychological thriller, that delivers....sometimes... > > Gone in 60 seconds > ---the story of this seasons Victorian Chasing > > And the oscar goes to: > > > > .................... > > dann__________________________ > Daniel Weatherhead > Blaxland, NSW > weatherhead at ozemail.com.au > SYDNEY STORM CHASERS > www.sydneystormchasers.com > > > > > > > > > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 21:49:05 +1100 From: Don White X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Some Gilmore Stats for February so far. A very wet month and max well below average . Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Anthony... would this be a record dry summer in thta area?? don Anthony Cornelius wrote: > > My parents' farm have only had 27mm since December 1st, > 2001...absolutely shocking! > > Hope the upcoming shower/storm activity can bring something! > > -- > Anthony Cornelius > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) > (07) 3390 4812 > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Keith Barnett" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another Sydney storm Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 17:41:11 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Due to a trough passage, no doubt.
Seven Hills top scored with the rain again for the Sydney area.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, February 28, 2002 5:21 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another Sydney storm

Hi Keith and all,

This storm was reasonably fierce - whiteout conditions as I drove into it.
There may have been a couple hailstones mixed in. The important observation
was the turning of the winds SSW on the northern side of the storm and SE
on the southern side. There was quite good overall structure with this storm.

Jimmy Deguara

At 07:10 PM 27/2/2002 +1100, you wrote:
>Just had 14.4mm in 10 minutes. Winds to 70 or 80 km at its peak but
>nothing as severe as the last one.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: The 25/2 storm from 2 different perspectives Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 22:13:59 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening all, Have added Peter Matters' pics from Monday's storm day - he was taking pics from Broadford (60kms NNE of Melbourne PO) when I was taking them from 6km NNE of Melbourne PO - same storm - different viewpoint!! http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_02_02.htm Anyone take pics of it from the west? or the south? Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 21:11:30 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Some Gilmore Stats for February so far. A very wet month and max well below average . Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Don, Not sure on the official figures...one of the farmers that owns a large (several thousand acres), has had that land for 3 generations, and they never had a summer where they didn't record less than 100mm (I forget the actual amount). The farm gets more rainfall than Amberley generally though, as it is very close to the Liverpool range and normally showers/storms move off the range right over the farm. But that hasn't happened. However, there is a line of heavy showers (possibly storms) moving slowly across now - fingers crossed! Toowoomba had 10.6mm in 10mins - not bad! AC Don White wrote: > > Anthony... would this be a record dry summer in thta area?? > don > > Anthony Cornelius wrote: > > > > My parents' farm have only had 27mm since December 1st, > > 2001...absolutely shocking! > > > > Hope the upcoming shower/storm activity can bring something! > > > > -- > > Anthony Cornelius > > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the > > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) > > (07) 3390 4812 > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 20:03:03 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropo talk. X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Nothing here, Clyve. We have had a lot of Strong Monsoon Signals hoisted over recent months, but they bring clear sunny skies with their gale-force winds. Meanwhile Guam has just upgraded the warnings for part of their AOR to Typhoon Warnings as Tropical Storm 02W appears to be intensifying near Chuuk. Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 20:30:33 +1100 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropo talk. > Hi Phil, > Thanks, Its nice to have an area of the globe that has a near 12 month > Typhoon season, the locals in that area would have learned to keep a > watchful eye to the east all year round I suppose. Have you had any > weather > this winter yet?, every time I check your area out its mostly clear of > any > major cloud, although it seems that narrow cloud band extending from > near > Rangoon to the baroclinic leaf just west of Korea appears to be of some > interest. regards Clyve Herbert. > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Phil Smith > To: > Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2002 1:49 PM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropo talk. > > > > Hey Clyve, > > It is never out of season to have a tropical disturbance in this neck > of > > the woods. TCs have been recorded in every month of the year. Yeah, > they > > do get fewer in the winter so some months do miss out, but they can > > appear round these parts any time at all. > > > > Phil > > <>< > > > > International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk > > Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk > > Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk > > Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: "Clyve Herbert" > > To: > > Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2002 09:28:18 +1100 > > Subject: aus-wx: Tropo talk. > > > > > Hi all. > > > An interesting out of season tropical disturbance at 150east and > about > > > 8 degrees north is looking interesting this morning drifting west > at > > > the tip of a mid lat upper trough, also the chocolate freckle > looking > > > tropical low near Vila is still edging southward towards New > Caledonia > > > though appears to show limited surface convergence upper divergence > > > seems ok. regards Clyve H. > > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > message. > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- > + > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Findlay To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: My photo gallery Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2002 21:36:37 +1000 X-Mailer: KMail [version 1.3.2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Hash: SHA1 I've now got a new wx photo gallery online! It doesn't have much in it yet, but I thought you guys may be interested in the software that drives it. https://redcliffe.dyndns.org/gallery/ Note that that is https not http. Running on https instead of http makes most of the annoying worms not notice it, not that it would matter though because I'm running Linux. The software is from http://gallery.sf.net and is pretty damn cool. It lets you make public and private galleries, albums, sub-albums, captioning etc. You can even comment on a picture. So if you thing my pictures are stupid, you can tell me :-). Now I'll finally be able to manage my weather photos effectively and get them online well. I'd just like one more feature that would allow me to add a chase report to a subalbum. Oh well. Thanks, David -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: GnuPG v1.0.6 (GNU/Linux) Comment: For info see http://www.gnupg.org iD8DBQE8fhZFF2H7v0XOYBIRAlACAKCv7ZRRPXRdg55VkHvldFN00iMruACgx0To fxJlWsMpBY9XHi8HfEG8kf8= =uVOb -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------