Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ABELE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ABELE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20101128 23:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S 86.9E TO 14.8S 85.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 282230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.1S 86.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S
86.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 875 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A LARGE BURST OF
INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE CENTER. A
281931Z AMSR-E 36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
SIGNATURE WITH A DEFINED LLCC. THE 281519Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT CORE WINDS AND 25-30 KNOT WINDS ALONG
THE NORTH AND SOUTH PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
BUT IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 292300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101129 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 11.9S 85.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 85.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.5S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.4S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.3S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.3S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.3S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.8S 96.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) THREE (03S), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD DENSE OVERCAST DEEPENING OVER THE
LLCC WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
A 291130Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KTS FROM PGTW. THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ON A MORE SOUTHWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE
SOUTH, TC 03S WILL RECURVE AND ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
AS VWS INCREASES. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH GFDN FAVORING A MORE EASTWARD
TRACK AFTER TAU 36. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 282251Z NOV 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 282300 ). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 84.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 84.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.1S 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.7S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.7S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.7S 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.8S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.3S 95.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.7S 98.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 84.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) THREE (03S), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A
POSSIBLE SECONDARY CIRCULATION TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 03S IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 03S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTH. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND RECURVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ERODES THE
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72, BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED
VWS AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 20.0S. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 010300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.1S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.8S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.6S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.5S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.5S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.9S 96.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.3S 98.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 85.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) THREE (03S), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 665 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE BULK OF THE DEEPEST CENTRAL CONVECTION
HAD SHEARED WEST AND WEAKENED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, LEAVING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST.
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO RE-BUILD NEAR THE CENTER NOW THAT THE SUN
HAS SET, BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO
DISPLACE CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC. THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, WHICH IS LESS SENSITIVE TO DIURNAL
FLUCTUATIONS IN CONVECTION, SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. VWS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE NORTH, ALLOWING FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION UNTIL TAU
72. THEREAFTER, VWS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET. THE TC WILL DISSIPATE OUT TO SEA BY TAU
120. THIS FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHEAST TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101201 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 85.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 85.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.3S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.0S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.6S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.3S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.2S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.9S 96.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 85.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) THREE (03S), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS RE-CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEP
CONVECTION REBUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 301618Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 25 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE NORTH AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A 302323Z 85H SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTING A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND FMEE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 03S IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS EQUATORWARD. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AFTER TAU 48, TC
03S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST TRACK
LIES CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101201 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 85.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 85.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.3S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.2S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.1S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.1S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.4S 93.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 86.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ABELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH HAS DUG DEEP INTO THE TROPICS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS
BEGINNING TO ADVERSELY AFFECT THE SYSTEM. NEARLY ALL THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEPLETED AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES ARE NOW EXPOSED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. IF THIS TROUGH DOES NOT PULL
OUT OF THE TROPICS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THEN THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST. ANALYSIS OF
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN
CONTRAST TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SUSTAINS (AND INTENSIFIES) THE
TC OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO CEASED, BUT
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS STRENGTHENED. THE INITIAL FORECAST
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A HIGH RESOLUTION 010324Z ASCAT PASS THAT
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 35 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BECOME LESS RELIABLE FOR DETERMINING INTENSITY
DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION AND VARY WILDLY AMONG THE
REPORTING AGENCIES. THE FORECAST TRACK STILL FAVORS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS, BUT THE PEAK INTENSITY IS NOW MUCH LOWER TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE TROUGH. UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BELOW 30 KNOTS BY TAU
72 (ASSUMING THE SYSTEM WEATHERS THE TROUGH IN THE SHORT TERM).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101202 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 86.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 86.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.7S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.5S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.5S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.7S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.7S 95.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 87.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 03S (ABELE), CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHARP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE SYSTEM,
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. A STACK OF THE 012302Z
37GHZ AND 85GHZ SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO TILT
THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, INDICATING THE EARLY STAGE OF VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE 37GHZ PASS ALSO SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH
ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, DECLINE SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG
TRACK BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. THE COOLING WATERS
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL SEVERELY DEGRADE THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 36.
ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON INTENSITY,
THERE EXISTS SIGNIFICANT DISPARITY ON BOTH TRACK AND SPEED. NOGAPS
AND UKMO TURN THE STORM SHARPLY SOUTHWESTWARD AT TAU 72 WHILE ALL
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. THIS TURN DRASTICALLY SLOWS
CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, AND THEN IS
BASED ON A SLIGHTLY ACCELERATING RATE OF MOVEMENT ALONG TRACK
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101202 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 87.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 87.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.9S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.8S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.0S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.3S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.8S 94.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 87.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE), CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL BANDING AND A 020211Z
SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE. THERE WAS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON MSI AND PREVIOUS
MICROWAVE EYES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND
FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS INDICATING THE
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
IS DIGGING EQUATORWARD AND CAUSING SUBSIDENCE IN THIS REGION. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. TC 03S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE
TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, TC ABELE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU
72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE,
THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z AND 030900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101202 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 89.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 89.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.1S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.9S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.5S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 90.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE), CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSTION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND FMEE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TC
03S HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD IS
STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITDUE
TROUGH, SUGGESTING AN IMMINENT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
03S IS NOW TRACKING POLEWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. GENERALY SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CARRY TC 03S INTO A ZONE
OF RAPIDLY INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, UNFAVORABLY LOW
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY AN
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS WILL INDUCE RAPIDLY
WEAKENING, WITH FULL DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS OCCURRING BY TAU 36. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF A STRONG
STEERING FLOW PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101203 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 91.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 91.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.8S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.4S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 91.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE), CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
SHEARED 30 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 03S HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65
KNOTS. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS, SUBSIDENCE
FROM A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101203 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 20.8S 93.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 93.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.4S 94.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 93.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ABELE), CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 031433Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE A DECOUPLED,
EXPOSED CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY BELOW WARNING
THRESHOLD CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SSTS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS
15 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_abele_jtwc_advisories.htm
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