WTXS21 PGTW 20141211 02:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8S 97.7E TO 9.7S 92.2E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
110130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.1S
97.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9S
97.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 97.1E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH OF
COCOS ISLAND. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVING CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEPENING
CENTRAL CONVECTION. AN 110057Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND BUILDING CONVECTION AROUND THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE MOST RECENT PGTW FIX INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30
KNOTS, AND THE GFS MODEL IS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120230Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141211 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 9.1S 94.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S 94.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 9.5S 92.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 9.9S 91.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 10.4S 90.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 10.5S 89.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 10.2S 87.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 10.1S 87.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 11.0S 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 93.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1294 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SLOWLY DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS
FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS THE DEEP
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE PERSISTENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE IR ANIMATION AND PGTW FIX WITH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. BAKUNG IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE SAME WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW TO
MODERATE VWS. JUST AS THE STR RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN, NEAR TAU 72, A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THE RIDGE AXIS AND SLOW THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 120. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED WITH NVGM, AVNO, AND EGRR INDICATING
THE POLEWARD TURN SOLUTION WHILE HWRF AND COTC INDICATE A MUCH MORE
EQUATORWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID MORE CLOSELY IN
LINE WITH THE AVNO SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND
122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141212 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z --- NEAR 9.6S 92.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 92.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 10.2S 91.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 10.6S 89.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 10.8S 88.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 10.8S 86.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 10.7S 85.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 10.7S 84.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 11.1S 84.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 92.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BAKUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1214 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED CONVECTION OBSCURING A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120337Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI, SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN
PERSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND OVERALL
CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC BAKUNG IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, ALLOWING TC 03S TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. BY
TAU 72, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN A COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO SLOW AND/OR QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AS A
MIGRATORY TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH CAUSING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
AND MODIFYING THE STEERING STR. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
SPREAD THEREAFTER. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD ALONG WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK SPEEDS AND FORECAST INTENSITY IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141212 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z --- NEAR 10.2S 91.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 91.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 10.5S 89.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 10.7S 88.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 10.7S 86.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 10.7S 85.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 10.6S 84.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 11.1S 83.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 11.9S 83.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 91.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPENED CONVECTION OBSCURING A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 121557Z ASCAT AND 1556 METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND MORE INTENSE
(40 KNOT) WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE IR LOOP, SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND WIIX AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC BAKUNG IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE,
ALLOWING TC 03S TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 72, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN POLEWARD
AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SYSTEM TURNING EQUATORWARD
PRIOR TO ITS NORTHERLY DIVE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (WITHOUT
GFS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141213 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z --- NEAR 9.1S 89.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S 89.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 8.9S 88.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0S 89.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BAKUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 466 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED 124 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. A 130349Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS WEAK, FRAGMENTED,
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC WITH AN
ISOLATED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 130347Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO REFLECTS THE
WEAK NATURE OF THE LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. BASED ON THE MSI, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. SINCE THE PREVIOUS
WARNING, THE MSI WAS ALSO USED TO SUPPORT THE RECENT RE-POSITIONING
OF THE TRACK DUE TO THE DE-COUPLED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 BUT IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
ASCAT DATA. TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATING. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION AFTER TAU 72; HOWEVER, THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE REFLECTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LLCC AND GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS
12 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_bakung_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]