WTXS21 PGTW 20150115 16:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.4S 40.3E TO 21.4S 46.2E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 151600Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 41.3E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S
40.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 41.3E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 151357Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED, TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED SHALLOW LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORTS A 25 TO 30 KNOT SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN IMPROVING, FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD CHANNEL OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN MADAGASCAR, THEREFORE, THERE IS INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE
JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161630Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150116 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151621ZJAN2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 19.4S 42.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 42.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 20.1S 43.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 20.7S 45.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 21.2S 47.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 21.4S 49.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 21.9S 51.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 23.2S 52.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 24.6S 53.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 42.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHEDZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 736 NM WEST
OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES RAPID CONSOLIDATION WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
A 152336Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES 35 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD CHANNEL OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 06S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY, PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12, TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND.
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER
WATER AFTER TAU 40. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DUE TO COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES, NAMELY, THE NER AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING INFLUENCES. OVERALL, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL
SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 151621Z JAN 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 151630). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150116 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 43.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 43.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 20.7S 45.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 21.4S 48.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 21.7S 50.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 22.2S 51.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 23.5S 52.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 25.1S 53.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 26.6S 55.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 44.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHEDZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM WEST
OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES A CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM WITH A MORE
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING IN AS THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MAKE LANDFALL
ACROSS WESTERN MADAGASCAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE
MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS
BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM KNES AND
FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
(05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD DIRECTIONS. TC 06S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72,
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL INITIALLY INDUCE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES
UNTIL THE STR BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND DRIVES THE
SYSTEM POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY AFTER EMERGING BACK OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN
AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODELS SPREAD DUE TO A
DISAGREEMENT ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE STR AND WHEN THE STR WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170300Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150117 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 21.2S 46.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 46.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 21.9S 48.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 22.5S 50.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 23.0S 51.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 23.5S 52.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 25.0S 53.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 46.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS NOW DRAGGING ACROSS THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DEDUCED FROM
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AND
DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. THE CYCLONE WILL EXIT
BACK INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN BEFORE TAU 12 AND WITH THE INITIAL
EXPOSURE INTO MOISTURE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES, IT WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, THE
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z
AND 180300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150117 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 21.9S 49.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 49.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 22.3S 51.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 22.9S 52.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 23.6S 53.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 24.3S 53.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 26.1S 54.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 49.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHEDZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED THROUGH MADAGASCAR AND REVEALS A SLIGHTLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AN 171151Z SSMI PASS
CONFIRMS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND ITS
WEAK STATE AS EVIDENT BY THE LACK OF WRAPPING CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 171010Z ISS RSCAT. TC 06S
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AND
THE NER WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND ELONGATE, DRIVING THE SYSTEM
ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY TAU 48, EXPECT TC CHEDZA
TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, COMPLETING BY TAU 72. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20150118 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 22.7S 51.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 51.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 23.5S 52.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 22.9S 51.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHEDZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND IS NOW BELOW THE JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD FOR THIS BASIN. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE VWS IS ONLY GOING TO GET STRONGER AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_chedza_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]