Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GLENDA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2014-2015 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20150222 14:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 78.3E TO 15.8S 71.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 77.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 79.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 77.1E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 220841Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED CENTER. A 220333Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 231400Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS21 PGTW 20150223 14:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351Z FEB 15// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 221400)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7S 75.2E TO 18.4S 71.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 74.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 75.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 74.7E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. A 231212Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A WELL-DEFINED SHALLOW LLCC. A 230453Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 241400Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20150224 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351Z FEB 15// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 72.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 72.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 17.0S 70.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 18.0S 69.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.0S 68.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 20.2S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 22.9S 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 25.7S 68.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 30.0S 70.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 71.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 546 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 240434Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS, REVEALS A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED UPON THIS SATELLITE DATA WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND FMEE INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALED AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS DECREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY WEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MODIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MODIFIES AND TURNS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS), MODERATE VWS, AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALLOW. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK OVER COLD (< 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHILE APPROACHING THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS A STRONG COLD- CORE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN WHEN AND WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 231351Z FEB 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 231400).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20150224 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 70.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 70.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 17.4S 69.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.4S 68.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.7S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 20.9S 67.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 23.1S 67.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 27.6S 69.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 33.1S 74.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 70.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 908 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BETTER CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES AND INTO THE LLCC. A 241705Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AVERAGE OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTIVE WRAPPING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC GLENDA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THIS STR WILL REORIENT TO THE EAST OF TC 14S, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD, AND REMAIN THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE STR RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ABOVE 27C ALLOWING TC GLENDA TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE STR AXIS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS (20 TO 30 KNOTS). BEYOND TAU 72, TC 14S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT EMBEDS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RE-CURVE SCENARIO LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20150225 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 69.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 69.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.8S 68.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.9S 67.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 21.1S 66.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 22.4S 66.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 25.0S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 29.1S 70.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 34.2S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 68.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 661 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT HAS REMAINED SLIGHTLY BROKEN. A 250414Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED IN SIZE WHILE THE BANDING HAS STARTED TO WRAP TIGHTER IN THE LLCC ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME LIMITED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. ADDITIONALLY, THE WIND FIELD WAS GREATLY INCREASED BASED ON A 250502Z ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC GLENDA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT TO THE EAST OF TC 14S OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, INDUCING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TURNING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS ALLOWING TC GLENDA TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE STR AXIS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHICH WILL INCREASE VWS WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO BECOME MARGINAL. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW, EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NEAR TAU 72 AND EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RE-CURVE SCENARIO LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20150225 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 68.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 68.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 20.0S 67.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 21.4S 66.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 22.6S 66.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 23.9S 66.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 27.7S 68.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 32.2S 72.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 37.3S 77.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 68.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED FLARING AND FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION, ALBEIT WRAPPED TIGHT INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 251645Z ASCAT PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND SUPPORTED BY THE ASCAT DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS 06 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW EXCEPT THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AND RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY END OF FORECAST. TC GLENDA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48 BEFORE VWS BEGINS TO TAKE TOLL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20150226 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 67.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 67.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 21.8S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.1S 66.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 24.4S 66.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 26.9S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 32.2S 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 38.1S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 67.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THINNING CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS NOW LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE MARGINAL, FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BY TAU 36, TC GLENDA WILL ROUND THE STR AND RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 72, TC 14S WILL BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT EMBEDS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20150226 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 22.4S 67.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 67.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.8S 66.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 24.9S 67.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 27.0S 68.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 29.6S 69.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 34.4S 73.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 67.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS READILY APPARENT ON THE 261402Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE HAS CRESTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST AND WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 12 INTO THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INITIAL EXPOSURE INTO THE STRONG WESTERLIES MAY AMPLIFY THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE CONCURRENT TO ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20150227 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 66.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 66.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 25.4S 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 27.5S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 30.0S 68.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 32.9S 70.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 66.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 573 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ELONGATION AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE DISPLACED EASTWARD OF A PARTIALLY- EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20150227 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 25.2S 67.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 67.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 27.3S 67.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 29.7S 68.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 31.8S 69.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 67.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING AND ELONGATING CLOUD SYSTEM STRUCTURE WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 271741Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON A 271649Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT GAINS SUPPORT FROM INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 14S HAS STARTED TO BE ENVELOPED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO 30-40 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. TC 14S CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY TAU 12, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE DEEPER INTO A WEAK THICKNESS GRADIENT AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC GLENDA IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT AND BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20150228 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 27.5S 67.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 67.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 30.3S 68.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 28.2S 67.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 723 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 14S HAS STARTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME FURTHER SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH HAS STARTED TO OPEN AND UNRAVEL. A 290454Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE ALSO SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO SLIGHTLY ELONGATE WHILE DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME FURTHER EMBEDDED INTO THE WESTERLIES WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS COMPLETELY OFFSETTING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL SUSTAINMENT. TC GLENDA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WHILE FURTHER LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600ZIS 16 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_glenda_jtwc_advisories.htm
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