WTXS21 PGTW 20150308 02:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9S 49.7E TO 20.4S 53.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2S 50.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.1S
49.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 50.0E, APPROXIMATELY 339 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 072130Z 37
GHS AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE 080021Z 37 GHZ GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEAL A LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO THE
SYSTEM CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE, BUT IMPROVING, (15-
25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29 TO 30 CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION AND CONSOLIDATING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090230Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150308 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080221Z MAR 15/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 20.4S 52.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 52.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 21.4S 54.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 22.5S 55.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 23.4S 57.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 24.8S 58.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 25.8S 60.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 28.2S 63.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 31.2S 68.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HALIBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A MIDGET SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 081844Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS INCREASED FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 081754Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 30 TO 35 KNOTS
CIRCULATION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONSENSUS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC HALIBA IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC
16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TC
16S TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 080221Z MAR 15
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 080230).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150309 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z --- NEAR 21.3S 53.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 53.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 22.2S 55.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 23.1S 56.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 24.0S 57.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 24.9S 58.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 26.3S 61.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 29.2S 66.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDGET
SYSTEM WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION.

A 081844Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS INCREASED FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 081754Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 30 TO 35 KNOTS
CIRCULATION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONSENSUS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC HALIBA IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC
16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TC
16S TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150309 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z --- NEAR 22.2S 55.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 55.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 23.0S 56.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 23.7S 57.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 24.3S 58.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 25.2S 59.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 27.8S 64.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 55.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HALIBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND LOOSELY WRAPPED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE EIR LOOP FURTHER SHOWS
COOLING CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT IS
DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A 091542Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
INDICATES A LOOSELY WRAPPED AND ELONGATED LLCC WITH CONVECTION ALONG
THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON A
091735Z SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS AND AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC HALIBA IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
THROUGH TAU 36 UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMBED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ABOVE 26C WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU
36 ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS.
BEYOND TAU 36, TC 16S WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS IT MOVES INTO AN
AREA OF 25 TO 30 KNOT VWS AND SSTS DROPPING BELOW 26C. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150310 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z --- NEAR 23.7S 55.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 55.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 24.7S 55.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 25.3S 55.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 25.8S 56.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 27.2S 59.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 55.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HALIBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE
CONVECTION COMPLETELY SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. A 100534Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. TC HALIBA
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE NER REORIENTS
SLIGHTLY AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
WILL OFFSET THE INCREASE IN VWS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTH, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH THROUGH TAU
24 BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z
IS 12 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_haliba_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]