Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone IKOLA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2014-2015 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS31 PGTW 20150405 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 87.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 87.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.1S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.9S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.1S 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.5S 95.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.6S 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 32.9S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 88.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AS A SOLID CONVECTIVE
BAND SPIRALED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
AND ON A LLCC FEATURE IN THE 051545Z AMSUB MICROWAVE PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 21S IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN.
INCREASING VWS, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD, IN ADDITION TO COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE TC TOWARDS ITS
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 - POSSIBLY SOONER. THERE IS A VERY LIMITED
NUMBER OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150406 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 14.2S 89.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 89.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.7S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.1S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.3S 95.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.5S 98.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.5S 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.1S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 89.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1497 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM WITH GOOD SPIRALED
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). IN ADDITION TO THE MSI, A 060231 GPM 36GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE, GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS HAS
BEEN INCREASED BASED ON CONCURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND
PTGW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH
OFFSETS THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STR CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
AID IN DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING INCREASING VWS, TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
THOUGH TAU 48. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING VWS, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECEASE AS THE SYSTEM DROPS
POLEWARD OF 24 DEGREES SOUTH, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AT THE LATEST. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150406 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 91.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 91.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.1S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.1S 95.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.2S 98.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.5S 101.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.0S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 34.6S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 91.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (IKOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1352 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INTENSE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEEPENING CENTRAL CORE STRUCTURE SURROUNDING A 5-NM EYE. A 061616Z
MHS COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WITHIN A SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 95 KNOTS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF AS
WELL AS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 101
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE JUST TO THE
NORTH PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. IN ADDITION, A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST IS PROVIDING ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOTS). TC IKOLA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS STEERING MECHANISM WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, ALLOWING TC
21S TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 12, AS TC
IKOLA TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD, THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL DEEPEN
AND INCREASE THE VWS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION,
NEAR TAU 24, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 26 CELSIUS.
THESE POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN, LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THE MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT HAS BEEN INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AND A RECENT ALTIMETER
PASS NEAR THE CYCLONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150407 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 93.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 93.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.2S 95.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.4S 98.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.8S 101.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.4S 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 32.8S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 94.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (IKOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1193 NM WEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS THE EYE HAS BECOME IRREGULAR. A 070325Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW
AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC IKOLA IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 21S WILL REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS STEERING RIDGE. THE COMBINED
EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150407 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 20.4S 96.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 96.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.1S 99.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.8S 102.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.6S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 32.3S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 96.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (IKOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1017 NM WEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING STRUCTURE WITH THE BULK OF
CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071626Z TRMM 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
FURTHER DEPICTS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND
FURTHER REFINED AFTER CONDUCTING AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 071550Z
SCATTEROMETER PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES AND REPRESENTS THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE
CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM UNDER THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH; ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE
CIRCULATION AND PRODUCING HIGH (30-40 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). IN ADDITION, TC 21S HAS MOVED INTO SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BELOW 26 CELSIUS. TC IKOLA IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 21S WILL REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS STEERING RIDGE. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
INCREASING VWS AND FURTHER DECREASING SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150408 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 21.2S 98.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 98.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.5S 101.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 99.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 866 NM WEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS UNRAVELED
AND THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISPLACED 150 NM FROM
THE LLCC. A 080308Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A 30 TO 35 KNOT ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH A FEW 40 TO 45 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE. SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG (40 TO 50 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 16 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_ikola_jtwc_advisories.htm
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