WTPS21 PGTW 20160315 20:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 139.1E TO 16.4S 141.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 151800Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 139.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
138.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 50NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND AIRPORT RADAR SITE. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN
RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
SYMMETRICAL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (31 TO 32 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 999MB. BASED ON THE ORGANIZED LLCC AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162000Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160316 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZMAR2016//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 140.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 140.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 16.7S 141.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 16.8S 142.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 140.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF BROAD FLARING
CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ANIMATED RADAR FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND SHOWS STRONG CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC, GIVING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE FIXING
AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 31 CELSIUS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 12, THEN DISSIPATE OVER
CAPE YORK BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, BUT DIVERGES AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER
LAND THEREAFTER. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THE REMNANTS OF TC 16P
TO REEMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA OR CONTINUE EAST TO THE
CORAL SEA IN THE COMING DAYS. IN THIS SCENARIO, THERE IS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE TO REDEVELOP FOLLOWING
THE ANTICIPATED NEAR-TERM DISSIPATION OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA.
DUE TO THE SHORT LIVED DURATION OF TC 16P AND TIGHT MODEL AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 24, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 161500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 152000).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160316 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 141.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 141.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 17.3S 142.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 141.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM
WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL OVER THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA AND STARTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON THE DETERIORATION OF THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND AND FULLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_201616_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]