Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ANNABELLE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2015-2016 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20151120 07:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7S 74.0E TO 12.9S 69.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 200700Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 73.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 76.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 73.1E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
200230Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING
TO CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
SYSTEM INTENSIFYING TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210730Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20151120 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200721NOV15//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 9.9S 71.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 71.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 10.3S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 11.0S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.8S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.7S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.0S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.6S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.0S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 71.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION. A 201346Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING, HOWEVER, THE OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 TO T3.0 SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
TURN POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY AT
A FASTER RATE FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 60 DUE TO DECREASING VWS AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST AT 60 KNOTS
BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 60, TC 03S WILL TRACK OVER COOLER SST AND WILL
BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER STRONG VWS WHICH WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM, AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. BY TAU 120, TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO SLOW AND TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AND INTENSITY,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z AND 211500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 200721 NOV 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20151121 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 10.2S 70.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 70.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 10.6S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.3S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.4S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.4S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.3S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.7S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.1S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 70.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC
HAS OBSCURED THE PREVIOUSLY VISIBLE CENTER, MAKING POSITIONING MORE
DIFFICULT. CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KTS BASED ON
THE LACK OF CONSOLIDATION OBSERVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN FLARING ALONG THE TIGHT BANDING FEATURES, BUT HAS NOT BEEN
PERSISTING FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS AT A TIME. DVORAK ESTIMATES
REMAIN 2.5/2.5 FROM PGTW AND 3.0/3.0 FROM KNES, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
TURN POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY AT
A FASTER RATE FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48 DUE TO DECREASING VWS AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST AT 55 KNOTS
BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 60, TC 03S WILL TRACK OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER STRONG VWS; THIS WILL SERVE
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AND INTENSITY, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20151121 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 10.9S 71.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 71.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.1S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.2S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 14.8S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.5S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.1S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.6S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 71.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH SOME DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING, MAKING THE EXACT POSITIONING DIFFICULT. AS
SUCH, THE CURRENT POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC
ANNABELLE IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 96. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36
DUE TO DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, TC 03S WILL TRACK OVER COOLER
OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS, WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 72, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20151122 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 11.5S 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 71.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.5S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 14.1S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.8S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.6S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.7S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.7S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 71.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEARLY
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS TC 03S HAS MOVED
INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A MINOR EXTENSION OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF SUMATRA EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHEAST OF TC 03S. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STR EXTENSION
WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE
TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 96. TC 03S IS STRUGGLING TO
CONSOLIDATE, LEADING TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION, WITH A MAXIMUM
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IMPROVE BRIEFLY. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING OF TC
ANNABELLE BEYOND TAU 36. INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW WILL LEAD THE SYSTEM TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DUE TO DIFFERING LEVELS OF WEAKENING, GUIDANCE
SPREADS SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20151122 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 12.7S 72.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 72.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 14.3S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.0S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.1S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.3S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.3S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 72.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHT
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AND MOSTLY
DISCONNECTED FROM THE LLCC; HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
DEEPENED. THIS IMPROVEMENT IN CENTRAL CONVECTION AND THE INCREASE IN
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO T3.5 (55 KNOTS), SUPPORTS THE
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CURRENT INTENSITY. A 220816Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 03S IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING
OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
MOSTLY FAVORABLE. BEYOND TAU 12, TC ANNABELLE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS RAPIDLY INCREASES DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48
PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THIS MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20151123 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.4S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.5S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.9S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.6S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 74.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE JET HAS RECENTLY ENHANCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FLARE, BUT IN GENERAL, TC 03S HAS STRUGGLED TO
DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME
HARSHER. THE RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO MARGINAL LEVELS (20 TO 30
KNOTS), KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION FROM BUILDING AND PERSISTING NEAR
THE CORE. TRACK SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST HAS BEEN BUILDING WESTWARD AND ENGAGING WITH TC 03S MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 26 AND 27
CELSIUS, LENDING MARGINAL SUPPORT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TC 03S. AS
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST, SSTS WILL DROP OFF AND
VWS WILL INCREASE NOTICEABLY, LENDING TO A RAPID WEAKENING TREND AND
EVENTUALLY THE DISSIPATION OF TC 03S BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20151123 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 16.7S 76.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 76.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.3S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.2S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.7S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 77.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WRAPPING BENEATH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY ELONGATED AS IT INTERACTS
WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED HIGH
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CONVECTION HAS STARTED
TO WEAKEN WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS EVIDENT IN THE ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE LOOP. THE AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO
DECREASED, LEADING TO A DROP IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KNOTS.
TC 03S HAS AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW; HOWEVER, THE VWS IS DETERIORATING THE SYSTEM
STRUCTURE AND CAUSING THE CURRENT WEAKENING. TC ANNABELLE IS
ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 03S WILL
FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20151124 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 19.2S 78.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 78.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.6S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.5S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 78.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 798 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 240144Z
F-18 91GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
ELONGATED AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AND THE ASSOCIATED HIGH NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS WEAKER THAN 12HRS AGO, AND IS ASSESSED AT
45KTS, BASED ON THE LATEST PGTW DVORAK VALUES BETWEEN 2.5/3.5 (35-
55KTS). THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL DUE TO 30-40KTS
VWS, DESPITE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TC ANNABELLE IS
ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 03S WILL
FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20151124 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 22.8S 81.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 81.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.6S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 81.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL AND HAS
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (LESS THAN 26
DEGREES CELSIUS). IN VIEW OF THESE, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
ERODE AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 12 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_annabelle_jtwc_advisories.htm
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