WTXS21 PGTW 20151209 23:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 71.8E TO 16.8S 69.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 34 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 71.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
72.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 71.6E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA
OF EXPANDING DEEP CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
TOWARD A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. A
092055Z MHS 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AND TUCK UNDER A SHIELD OF
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF THE LLCC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 34 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN, THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
102300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20151210 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 70.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 70.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 14.5S 69.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 15.3S 68.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 16.6S 67.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 17.9S 66.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 21.3S 64.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 24.8S 63.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 28.1S 65.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SYMMETRIC
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING VERTICALLY OVER THE CORE. A RECENT 100139Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE BANDS OF
CONVECTION BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY ALONG THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE CENTER. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES A DENSE WARM CORE OF MOISTURE BUT A THIN RIBBON OF DRY AIR
HAS STARTED TO BUILD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS DRY AIR HAS
NOT YET MADE IT TO THE CORE, BUT WILL HINDER STRONG DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 05S IS
LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS), WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL LEAD TO
THE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH LEVELS OF VWS (25 TO 30 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF TC 05S ARE MARGINAL FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (27 CELSIUS), BUT THEY TOO WILL BECOME
UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 72, LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC
05S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR), BUT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ALLOWING TC 05S TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERN TRACK IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BEYOND TAU 96, INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO; HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME DISPARITIES IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TURN
AND THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION. GIVEN THESE VARIABLES, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 092251ZDEC15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
092300).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20151210 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 69.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 69.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 16.6S 68.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 17.5S 67.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 18.7S 66.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 20.4S 65.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 24.6S 63.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 69.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 542 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED OVER THE
PREVIOUS 12 HOURS. A RECENT 101725Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE REVEALS THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN MOST QUADRANTS EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A 101726Z ASCAT-B PASS
DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM, AND ISOLATED 40 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO
IMPROVED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF TC 05S
ARE MARGINAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (27 CELSIUS), BUT THEY TOO WILL
BECOME UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 48, LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 05S IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), BUT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE STR WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND NUDGE TC 05S
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER
AND INCREASING INTERACTION WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO; HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DISPARITIES IN THE TIMING, INTENSITY, AND MOVEMENT OF 05S, AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE RIDGE. GIVEN THESE VARIABLES THE CURRENT FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20151211 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 69.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 69.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 18.0S 68.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 19.6S 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 21.5S 67.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 23.8S 66.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 26.7S 66.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A BRIEF PERIOD
OF REORGANIZATION HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS)
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY
OF TC 05S ARE MARGINAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (27 CELSIUS), BUT
THEY TOO WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 48, LEADING TO A
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05S IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TO A MORE SOUTHWARD
TREND, AS THE STR HAS SHIFTED MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING INTERACTION WITH UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU
72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND GIVEN
THESE VARIABLES THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20151211 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 68.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 68.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 18.7S 67.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 20.0S 65.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 21.9S 64.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 24.2S 63.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 67.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS CONNECTED TO A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST PROVIDING AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS STARTED TO INCREASE WHICH IS PUSHING THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE IR LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN 111704Z
METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION AND
DECREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC BOHALE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE. IN ADDITION, VWS WILL INCREASE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE COMPLETE
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR
POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THERE ARE VARYING DEGREES WITH THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THIS SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20151212 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 67.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 67.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 20.6S 67.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 67.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 592 NM EAST OF
PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED AND SHEARED
SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG
(30-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC BOHALE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE AS ADVERSE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.  THE CYCLONE WILL BE REDUCED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_bohale_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]