Updated: 17 June 2020
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone CORENTIN : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2015-2016 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone CORENTIN Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20160120 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 77.9E TO 19.1S 73.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 77.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
77.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 77.0E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED BANDING ON THE PERIPHERY.
PREVIOUS ASCAT DATA CONFIRM AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS (25-30 KTS) ON BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED OVER THE LLCC PRODUCING STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR 29 C SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT AND DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160121 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201451ZJAN16//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 73.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 73.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.1S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.1S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.0S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.0S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.9S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.4S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 73.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 532 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING YET PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A RECENT 210945Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH FRAGMENTED SHALLOW
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS 35 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. TC CORENTIN IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON THIS TRAJECTORY UNTIL TAU 48 WHEN THE STR
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND A SECOND STR TO THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO BUILD
IN. AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AND BECOME NEARLY
QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE STR SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. TC CORENTIN IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO WARM (27C-29C)
SSTS, LOW VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SUPPORTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 201451ZJAN16
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 201500).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160122 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 17.9S 73.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 73.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.8S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.7S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.7S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.6S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.1S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 29.0S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 30.0S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 73.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 911 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CENTRALIZED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND IS PERSISTING OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 08S HAS
SHIFTED TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) RANGING FROM 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE SUPPORTING THE
RECENT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTER TAU 24 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD CHANNELS HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. IN
ADDITION, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW AS THE POINT-SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS, LOCATED OVER THE LLCC, IS ENHANCING
OUTFLOW AND CREATING A VERTICALLY STACKED ENVIRONMENT. AS TC 08S
TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS, THE STR TO THE EAST WILL
WEAKEN WITH A SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTHWEST STARTING TO DEVELOP,
LEADING TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FROM TAU 72 THROUGH 120.
EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN STR WILL BUILD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF TC 08S, TAKING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08S WILL
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BUT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WILL DEVELOP AS SSTS DECREASE
POLEWARD OF 25 DEGREES SOUTH. IN ADDITION, VWS WILL INCREASE AS MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, IN THE UPPER LEVELS, BEGINS TO IMPINGE ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AFTER TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SUPPORTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160122 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 71.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 71.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.8S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.8S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.5S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.6S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.6S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 28.4S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 30.5S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 71.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 758 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT 221156Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE DEEPEST CENTRAL CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC CORENTIN IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST, WHERE WARM (28C) SSTS SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING ON A SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD. FROM TAU 72 THROUGH 96, TC CORENTIN WILL BEGIN TO
SLOW AND BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS A SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. AFTER TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING
TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY AROUND TAU 36 TO
48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS OVER COLDER WATER AND INTO A REGION WITH HIGHER VWS. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 221200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160123 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 71.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 71.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.1S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.5S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.9S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.2S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 28.9S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 31.9S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 71.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 866 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 222310Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH CONVECTION
COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE CENTER. PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES YIELDED T-NUMBERS OF 4.5 AND SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 75 KNOTS. TC CORENTIN REMAINS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND HIGH (28 DEG C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC CORENTIN IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU
36, TC CORENTIN WILL BEGIN MOVING ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK AS THE
STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO THE NORTHWEST. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL SLOW, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY
SOUTHWARD. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE IN RESPONSE TO
A SECONDARY RIDGE RAPIDLY REPOSITIONING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY BY TAU 12 THEN
BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 120,
TC CORENTIN WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN TAUS 72-120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 48 AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINING
TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160123 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 23.9S 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 72.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.8S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.9S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.2S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.3S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.7S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 28.9S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 30.4S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 72.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 881 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A
CLOUD FILLED EYE. A 231142Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BAND
OF STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING AROUND A
SMALL WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
CURRENT POSITION OF TC CORENTIN. INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE HELD
STEADY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, CURRENTLY AT T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM
BOTH PGTW AND KNES. CURRENT AND FORECASTED WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON A PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A STRONG WESTERLY OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC CORENTIN IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE EAST. BY TAU 24, TC CORENTIN WILL BEGIN MOVING ON A
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO THE
NORTHWEST. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-
STATIONARY BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD. CURRENTLY SST IS
FAVORABLE AT AROUND 27C, BUT AS TC CORENTIN MOVES POLEWARD SST WILL
DROP, AND VWS WILL INCREASE, GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. BY TAU
96 TC CORENTIN WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 120 WILL FULLY EMBED
WITHIN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES, COMPLETING ETT. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
AFTERWARD DUE TO THE LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM WHICH
CAUSES CORENTIN TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING TAUS 48 TO 72.
THIS SCENARIO GIVES LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160124 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 74.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 74.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.0S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.0S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 74.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 976 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPID DECREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
A LESS-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 232258Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A VERY WEAK MICROWAVE CIRCULATION FEATURE,
GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT POSITION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE STEADILY FALLEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND ARE CURRENTLY T3.5
FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS.
TC CORENTIN HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT)
BUT INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A STRONG EASTERLY OUTFLOW CHANNEL, OVERALL IT IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. TC CORENTIN CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
EAST. BY TAU 12, TC CORENTIN WILL SLOW, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-
STATIONARY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE COL
AREA BETWEEN DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TC CORENTIN WILL ENCOUNTER
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND VWS
RESULTING IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
AFTERWARD DUE TO THE LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z AND 250300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160124 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 27.0S 76.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 76.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.6S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.6S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 77.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1153 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
MAINTAINED AND HELD RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. A
240922Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TC CORENTIN HAS ALSO
MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A FIX CONSENSUS
FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT T3.5 (55 KNOTS), AND
A PREVIOUS PARTIAL 240426Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS
TRAVELING IN PHASE WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND IS TRACKING OVER AN AREA OF 26 C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST). OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC CORENTIN WILL ENTER AN AREA OF
COOLER SSTS AND BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN; BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. VWS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
STEADY AT NEARLY 20 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT WILL HAVE A
GREATER IMPACT AS THE CYCLONE LOSES SPEED. THIS COUPLED WITH COOLER
SST WILL DISSIPATE TC CORENTIN BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160125 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 27.7S 77.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 77.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.5S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.8S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 26.6S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 26.9S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 77.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1247 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC CORENTIN HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT
SHEARING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE LLCC AND
BECOMING ASYMMETRIC AND ELONGATED EAST-WEST. A 242345Z GPM 36GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THAT THE LLCC IS NO LONGER UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL COLD CLOUD TOPS AND IS NOW MOVING NEARLY STRAIGHT EASTWARD.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES ARE
AT T3.0, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS EXPERIENCING HIGH (25-30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND IS TRACKING OVER AN AREA OF 26 C SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, DRIVING THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY EASTWARD. BY TAU 24, TC CORENTIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD,
THEN PERFORM A WESTWARD LOOP AFTER TAU 36 IN RESPONSE TO A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REPOSITIONING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM ITS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, WHILE VWS
INCREASES TO OVER 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL SERVE TO DISSIPATE TC CORENTIN
BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
48, BUT DUE TO THE LOOPING NATURE OF THE TRACK, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160125 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 27.0S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.4S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 78.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1239 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE A FULLY EXPOSED,
INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) UNDER
HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 251115Z SSMIS 91
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LIMITED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND THE ELONGATED LLCC. GIVEN THIS DISORGANIZED
STRUCTURE, THERE IS MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. FIXING AGENCIES ARE NO LONGER REPORTING SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY VALUES DUE THE DETERIORATING STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER, A PREVIOUS 250403Z PARTIAL METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 40 TO
45 KNOT WINDS, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. VARIOUS
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT TC CORENTIN IS BECOMING
SUBTROPICAL, INCLUDING THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE LLCC AND A DECREASING CORE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY. MULTI-MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS IT COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 16 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
|
Document: tropical_cyclone_corentin_jtwc_advisories.htm
Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
|