WTXS21 PGTW 20160209 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5S 51.2E TO 22.3S 51.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.8S 51.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4S
51.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 51.3E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 090031Z
SSMIS PASS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20160210 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090151Z FEB 16//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 090200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.0S 50.9E TO 25.5S 54.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.4S 51.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.8S
51.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.4S 51.1E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 091847Z ASCAT PASS AND A 092238Z
SSMI IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE, WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160210 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZFEB16//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 23.7S 52.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 52.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 24.9S 53.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 26.2S 54.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 28.1S 55.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 31.0S 56.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 38.9S 61.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 52.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER,
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A
101250Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. A RECENT
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM KNES, FMEE AND PGTW. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 50 KNOTS NEAR TAU 24 THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COOLER SST. TC 10S SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 72
AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z AND 111500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 100200Z FEB 16 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 100200).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160211 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAYA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAYA) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z --- NEAR 24.7S 53.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 53.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 26.3S 54.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 28.3S 56.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 31.7S 57.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 35.6S 59.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 42.6S 71.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 53.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAYA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 278 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS OVERALL MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE
WITH A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE DEGREE OF WRAP. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE
102223Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED WRAP IN THE FEEDER BANDS. TC 10S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24 THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COOLER SST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND
120300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160211 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAYA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 26.5S 54.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.5S 54.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 28.8S 56.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 31.8S 58.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 36.2S 61.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 40.6S 65.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 55.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAYA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM SOUTH
OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH MODERATE
CONVECTION BEING MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
QUADRANTS. AN 111102Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A RAGGED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND CONFIRMS THE WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION ABOUT THE CENTER, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KTS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC DAYA IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF
HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY
AND BEGUN THE WEAKENING PHASE. TC DAYA IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER, NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST. TC DAYA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE STR WEAKENS AND RETREATS NORTHWARD AND IT INTERACTS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. TC DAYA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER
TAU 12, AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
HIGH VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), DISSIPATING BY
TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160212 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAYA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAYA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z --- NEAR 28.8S 57.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.8S 57.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 32.3S 59.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 57.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DAYA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM SOUTH
OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
HAS BECOME SHALLOWER, FRAGMENTED AND SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 112354Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
FROM AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FIMP.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC DAYA HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
HIGH (30 KNOT+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26 CELSIUS AND DROPPING). THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST, IF NOT WORSEN, CONTRIBUTING TO THE DISSIPATION
OF TC 10S IN 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_daya_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]