Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone EMERAUDE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2015-2016 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone EMERAUDE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20160315 17:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 145 NM RADIUS OF 11.1S 86.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 86.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S
86.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM WEST OF
COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND BEGINNING TO WRAP
AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 151304Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH A STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT AROUND 30 KNOTS
BASED ON A 151430Z DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW (T=2.0). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO
10 KNOTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM
IS TRACKING VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST IN ABSENCE OF A DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM, LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER, BEYOND 24 HOURS, A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY STEER THE
SYSTEM EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161700Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160315 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151651ZMAR2016//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 85.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 85.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 11.1S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 11.0S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.2S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.6S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.4S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.4S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.1S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 85.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 831 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE CONSOLIDATION, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
151551Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. INFRARED IMAGERY
FURTHER INDICATES FORMATION OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES FROM KNES AND PGTW AND THE AMSU IMAGE. THE INTENSITY
OF 40 KNOTS IS SET ABOVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NOTED FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STEADY TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS)
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST IN THE ABSENCE OF A DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM, AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO
THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY STEER THE SYSTEM EASTWARD AND POLEWARD
THROUGH TAU 96. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TC 15S IS EXPECTED
TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS POLEWARD OF
THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, ALTHOUGH THE GFDN AND COAMPS-TC MODELS
DEPICT OUTLYING EASTWARD TRACKS THROUGH TAU 120. THESE OUTLYING
TRACKS MAY RESULT FROM DEPENDENCE ON THE NAVGEM INITIALIZATION
FIELDS, WHICH DEPICT TC 15S AS ERRONEOUSLY WEAK AND NON-DEVELOPING.
THE REMAINING GUIDANCE, CONSISTING OF THE GFS, GEFS, HWRF, UKMET,
AND ECMWF MODELS, DISAGREE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND DIRECTION OF THE
NEAR-TERM TURN TO THE EAST AND EXTENDED-TERM WESTWARD TURN. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS, GEFS, HWRF MODEL GROUPING
GIVEN THE ACCURATE ANALYSIS AND REALISTIC DEVELOPMENT PATTERN
DEPICTED IN THESE MODELS. DUE TO NOTED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z AND 162100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW
151700).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160316 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 84.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 84.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.5S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.2S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 10.3S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 10.8S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.8S 87.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.1S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.5S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 84.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 768 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH A BANDING EYE
FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 15S IS
TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IN A VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THESE CONDITIONS,
IN ADDITION TO MODERATE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC EMERAUDE WILL
THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS IN
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND ASSUMES STEERING. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN BEGIN A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND AS IT ENCOUNTERS DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS.
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 15S WILL TURN BACK TO THE
WEST AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS
THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND TAU 36, MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, THEY
ARE AT VARYING DEGREES. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLICATED STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160316 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 10.6S 84.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 84.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.6S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 10.8S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 10.9S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.2S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.3S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.5S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.0S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 84.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE INFRARED ANIMATION AND TIGHT GROUPING OF
SATELLITE FIXES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON
CORRESPONDING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC EMERAUDE IS
LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THESE CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO
MODERATE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SLOW AND/OR
POSSIBLE QUASITATIONARY MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS TC
EMERAUDE REMAINS IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, LEADING TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEGRADE, SLOWLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC 15S WILL TURN BACK TO THE WEST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE REORIENTS AND DOMINATES THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS AND TRACK SPEEDS AT VARYING
DEGREES. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TIMING OF THE TURN, JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS
LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160317 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 10.4S 84.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 84.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 10.4S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.0S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.4S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.0S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.2S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.1S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 15.3S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 84.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP SYMMETRIC CORE CONVECTION AND A VERY COMPACT 14 NM EYE
FEATURE, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS, TC EMERAUDE HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF VERY RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
125 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC EMERAUDE
CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, A SOLID POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) HAS BUILT IN TO THE NORTH. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT
SOURCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM, SUPPORTING A FURTHER
SLOW INTENSIFICATION, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS BY
TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND
IN RESPONSE TO A DEGRADATION OF UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LOWER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT
IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS TC EMERAUDE BEGINS A SLOW
TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING
NER TO THE NORTH. TC EMERAUDE IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AND AFTER
TAU 12 AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NER CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15S WILL TURN BACK TO THE WEST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE REORIENTS AND DOMINATES THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TRACK DIRECTION AND SPEED VARIATION,
ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE TURN, JTWC TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160317 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 10.5S 83.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 83.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 10.7S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.0S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.5S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.0S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.2S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.0S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.0S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 83.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WARMING CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO A 12-NM
DIAMETER EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 115 KNOTS
BASED ON THE CURRENT WEAKENING STRUCTURE AND OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC EMERAUDE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT OVER
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN POTENTIALLY HAMPERED BY
UPWELLED COLD WATER. AFTER TAU 12, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT RE-INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND IN RESPONSE TO A DEGRADATION OF UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. SLOW AND/OR
QUASI-STIONATIONARY MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS DUE TO A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC EMERAUDE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NER CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC 15S WILL TURN BACK TO THE WEST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR RE-ORIENTS AND DOMINATES THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TRACK DIRECTION AND
SPEED VARIATION. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE TURN, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160318 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 10.1S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 10.3S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.6S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.2S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.1S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.7S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.1S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.7S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 84.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 734 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SUPPORTING THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY WARM INDICATING THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY
WEAK. ADDITIONALLY, A 0310Z PARTIAL AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS
INDICATES THAT CORE CONVECTION IS LIMITED IN EXTENT AND FOCUSED ON
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.0. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT,
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS UNDER WEAK (5-10KTS) ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), IT IS WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE
EFFECTIVE VWS (15-20 KNOTS) DUE TO THE CURRENT EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION
VECTOR DIRECTLY OPPOSING THE MEAN SHEAR VECTOR. WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES ARE ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
OVER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE OHC VALUES, AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
REMAINS WEAK. AFTER TAU 72, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT RE-INTENSIFICATION AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS REESTABLISHED AND
OHC VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. TC EMERAUDE IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK AT TAU 96 AT 105 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING ONCE AGAIN BY TAU 120.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION IS FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL REORIENT FROM ITS CURRENT NORTH-SOUTH AXIS TO AN EAST-
WEST AXIS AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, RESULTING IN A
SHARP TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TRACK DIRECTION
AND SPEED VARIATION AFTER TAU 24. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE TURN, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND
190900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160318 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 10.2S 85.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 85.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.5S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.0S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 11.6S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.0S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.4S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.7S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.2S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 86.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 816 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTED A WEAKENING, ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING ORGANIZATION
IN JUST THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 181544Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE CONFIRMS A
TEMPORARY ELONGATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES AND RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A MINOR TROUGH POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, WHICH HAS AIDED THE OBSERVED
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
OBSERVED TO THE EAST OF EMERAUDE, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
MODERATE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TO THE EAST AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 80 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ALONG TRACK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASE IN EASTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
CURRENTLY TC EMERAUDE IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 36 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, BUT VARIES IN THE EXACT
POSITION TIMING OF THE EXPECTED TURN, GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK IN FAVOR OF THE GFS SOLUTION, WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160319 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 10.5S 86.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 86.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.9S 87.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 11.5S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.0S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.4S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.7S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.7S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 12.9S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 86.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 872 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CORE CONVECTION, HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD LINES OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM REMAIN EXPOSED
DUE TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A 190341Z
AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION,
APPROXIMATELY 120-NM DIAMETER, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. DESPITE THE CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM, OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLES. CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS WELL AS
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM 65
TO 75 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS STEERING TRANSITIONS
FROM THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE
SHARP WESTWARD TURN, THEREFORE OVERALL TRACK CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
TC 15S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY
TAU 48 THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO THE COMPLEX UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160319 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 10.8S 87.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 87.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 11.1S 87.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 11.7S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.1S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.3S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.5S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.7S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.1S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 87.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 910 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. A RECENT 191523Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A TIGHTLY-WOUND
AND SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE SUGGESTS THAT TC 15S
HAS BEGUN ITS PREVIOUSLY-ANTICIPATED POLEWARD TURN. THE INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES AND FMEE. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 15S IS
CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING FROM A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH TO
A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, ACCOUNTING FOR THE
OBSERVED SHIFT IN TRACK SPEED AND TRAJECTORY. AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TC EMERAUDE
WILL CONTINUE TO TURN AND FOLLOW A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN, INDUCING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
COMMENSURATE REDUCTION IN TRACK SPEED. THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED TOWARD AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME RESTRICTED AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD BEYOND TAU
24 AND TC 15S MOVES WESTWARD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
PERIPHERY, LIKELY PREVENTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM MAY
ONCE AGAIN INTENSIFY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW POTENTIAL. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC SOLUTIONS, BOTH OF WHICH DEPICT LOW PROBABILITY
POLEWARD TRACKS THAT WOULD CARRY THE SYSTEM INTO THE DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DUE TO RELATIVELY ACCURATE PERFORMANCE OF
THESE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND THEIR REALISTIC DEPICTION OF
THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. GIVEN CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160320 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 87.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 87.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 11.4S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.9S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.3S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.5S 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.8S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.2S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 13.9S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 87.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 919 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRUGGLING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DUE TO
DRY AIR EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP AND IN A
200408Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE FLARING, DISORGANIZED CENTRAL
CONVECTION IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DECREASED DUE TO THE WEAKENED STRUCTURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAINTAINING THE CONVECTION; HOWEVER, THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR AND MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE. TC 15S IS TURNING
SLOWLY POLEWARD AS THE STEERING TRANSITIONS TO A DEEP LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL
MODESTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TURNS
SOUTHWESTWARD AND PICKS UP FORWARD SPEED, ALLOWING THE VWS TO BECOME
IN-PHASE WITH STORM MOTION. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
MOSTLY UNCHANGED, TC EMERAUDE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BEYOND TAU 48 DUE
TO THE LOSS OF THE CURRENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, AS THE CYCLONE TURNS POLEWARD, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ONCE
AGAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, SPECIFICALLY BEYOND TAU 36, SHOWING A
LARGE SPREAD AS THE CYCLONE TURNS SOUTH. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD
AND THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160320 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 87.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 87.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.6S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.9S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.1S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.2S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.3S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 12.6S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.4S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 86.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 897 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
FLARING OVER A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT ELONGATION OF THE LLCC AND A
BAND OF DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF TC EMERAUDE, WHICH
IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA
SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SUMATRA IS DISRUPTING
OUTFLOW FROM TC 15S AND SHEARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL
AS RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS
TC 15S MOVES WESTWARD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT
AROUND 29 CELSIUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 72. TC EMERAUDE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 AS PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER OFFSETS A
MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT STEERING
MECHANISM IS SHIFTING FROM A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STEER AND
ACCELERATE TC EMERAUDE TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEYOND 72
HOURS A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE AN OUTFLOW
MECHANISM TO AID SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE SUFFICIENTLY TO REDUCE TRACK SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE
PERSISTS. HOWEVER, THE GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, UKMET, ECMWF, AND HWRF
TRACK SOLUTIONS LIE IN A RELATIVELY TIGHT GROUPING, AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST FAVORS THESE SOLUTIONS DUE TO THEIR ACCURATE DEPICTION OF
THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. BASED ON CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160321 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 11.7S 86.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 86.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.1S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.2S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.2S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.2S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 12.4S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 13.2S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.3S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 85.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 851 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 210300Z
ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 210348Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
CONFIRMS THE BROAD LLCC WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE STRUGGLING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN DECLINING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTING THE DECREASE IN INITIAL INTENSITY TO
55 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY;
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE BROAD LLCC THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN THE AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. TC 15S IS STARTING TO
ACCELERATE WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS LEADING TO A
CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. BEYOND TAU 48, AS THE SYSTEM TURNS
POLEWARD, AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AN ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTING A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE WIDESPREAD LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160321 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 12.4S 85.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 85.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.7S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.6S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.5S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.5S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 12.8S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.5S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.6S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 85.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 853 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED AND BECOME
DISORGANIZED. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT PASSES REVEALS A VERY ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 30 KNOT MAXIMUM WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST, UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BROAD ASCAT LLCC WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. DVORAK DATA-T VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 2.0-2.5 (30-35
KNOTS), WHILE FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE HIGHER DUE TO CONSTRAINTS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF ALL DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15S IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST HAMPERING OUTFLOW AND SURPRESSING
CONVECTION. THE CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PRODUCT SHOWS
EMERAUDE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 20 KNOT VWS. ADDITIONALLY, AS TC
15S HAS REMAINED IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY FOR NEARLY A WEEK,
SSTS HAVE COOLED DUE TO UPWELLING. DESPITE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS,
SSTS AND VWS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS EMERAUDE TRACKS
FURTHER WEST BEYOND TAU 24. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SUPRESSED
OUTFLOW, WHICH WILL ALSO IMPROVE AFTER DAY TWO IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THERE IS VERY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS, LENDING POOR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. HWRF MODEL INTENSITIES HAVE VARIED GREATLY BETWEEN RUNS, AND
THAT MODEL NOW CALLS FOR NO FUTHER RE-INTENSIFICATION, WHILE THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE RE-INTENSIFIES TC 15S BEYOND TAU 24 AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY REFLECTS SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND TAU 24, HOWEVER, IF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FURTHER DEGRADE BEFORE THAT TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160322 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 014 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 014 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 86.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 86.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.9S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 85.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 846 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH ISOLATED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 220328Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS WEAKLY-DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE
LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER
DATA AS WELL AS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 (30
KNOTS). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 THEN WILL TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD.
OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE UNTIL TAU 72 WHEN POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGENERATE NEAR TAU 72. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 10 FEET.
JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED PREVIOUS WARNING LOCATION
BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_emeraude_jtwc_advisories.htm
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