Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ULA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2015-2016 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTPS21 PGTW 20151230 01:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 168.2W TO 17.1S 168.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2S 168.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3S
169.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 168.0W, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING
OVER A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, PERSISTENT AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING THAT EXTENDS SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL
MILES TO THE WEST. A 292057Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THIS LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE. ASCAT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR THE NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER ARE APPROACHING THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS, AND ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW IS PRESENT ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN SUPPORTED BY RIDGING ALOFT.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON ONGOING CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20151230 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300051ZDEC2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 166.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 166.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 14.2S 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 15.9S 168.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.1S 169.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.8S 171.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.2S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.0S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.6S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 166.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). A 300507Z CORIOLIS 37
GHZ IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC
WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE CDO, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. ADDITIONALLY, A 292057Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS CONFIRMS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 50 KNOT
WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. TC 06P
IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 12. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND
BEGIN TO RE-CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE,
ALTHOUGH LIMITED, IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BUT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER
SST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 310900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 300051ZDEC15 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 300100).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20151230 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 167.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 167.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.7S 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.3S 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.7S 172.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.9S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.1S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.6S 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.5S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 167.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE
WITH A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST BUT WELL-DEFINED IN THE 301732Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO, AND
NFFN AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS PARTLY OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST
HAS ASSUMED STEERING AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR
TC 06P. AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS THE
STR BUILDS. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC ULA WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UP TO 75 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 48, VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENIDNIG HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 310900Z AND 312100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20151231 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 169.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 169.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.4S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.4S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.9S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.2S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.0S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.1S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.1S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 169.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MORE SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
CORE WITH DEEP SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THE
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED LOOP HAS SHOWN EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING
PINHOLE EYE FEATURE. A 310608Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE FURTHER ILLUSTRATES
THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON INCREASING DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTS THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW CAUSED BY A
POINT SOURCE OVER THE CYCLONE. TC 06P IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL CREATE INCREASED VWS WHICH WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING TREND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN TURN POLEWARD AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE STRONG VWS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTERWARDS, A
FEW MODEL TRACKERS STRUGGLE TO TRACK THE VORTEX SIGNATURE AS THE
CYCLONE IS WEAKENING WHICH HAS CAUSED A SLIGHT SPREAD. HOWEVER,
BASED ON THE GOOD OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE REMAINS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z AND 010900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20151231 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 169.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 169.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.0S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.7S 174.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.1S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.5S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.7S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.5S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.8S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 170.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. TC 06P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
SUPPORTED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROUGHLY 7 NM DIAMETER DEVELOPING EYE
FEATURE AND A GENERALLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TC 06P
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THEREAFTER, TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND MEANDER POLEWARD
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT TROUGH TO THE WEST. CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM UNDER THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM WATER.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND TAU 48 AND ALONG-
TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL FALL AFTER TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 120.
NUMERCIAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH THE
NAVGEM, GFDN, AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
OF THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST LIES WITHIN
THE TIGHTLY-PACKED PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING, NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160101 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 171.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 171.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.3S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.0S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.7S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.6S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.2S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.3S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 172.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW
REFLECTIVITY BANDING SEEN IN A 010623Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
AND IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS AN UNORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH THE BULK OF
CONVECTION NOW LOCATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOSTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND STRONG DIVERGENCE; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING AS
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH IS APPLYING PRESSURE AGAINST THE
SYSTEM AND ELONGATING THE MOISTURE FIELD. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. TC ULA CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, THE CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER WESTWARD; HOWEVER, VWS WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL TURN POLEWARD INTO
COLDER WATER. THESE FACTORS WILL START A WEAKENING TREND AND LEAD TO
FULL DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK
SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160101 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 174.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 174.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.7S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.5S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.5S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.6S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.6S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 174.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EMBEDDED CENTER FEATURE THAT HAS EVOLVED INTO A WEAK EYE FEATURE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING SEEN IN A 011718Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS DROPPED TO 75 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOSTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND STRONG DIVERGENCE; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING AS
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH IS APPLYING PRESSURE AGAINST THE
SYSTEM AND ELONGATING THE MOISTURE FIELD. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. TC ULA CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. VWS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
POLEWARD INTO COLDER WATER. THESE FACTORS WILL START A WEAKENING
TREND AND LEAD TO FULL DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRACK SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160102 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 18.5S 176.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 176.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.3S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.5S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.5S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.0S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.5S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 176.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM EAST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 31 FEET. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED,
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
IS INCREASING AS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN
LOCATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME DISLOCATED.
THE VWS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS TC 06P SHIFTS TO A MORE SOUTHWEST-
WARD TRACK IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. T5.0 (90 KNOTS) DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM PGTW SUPPORTS THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
TO THE SOUTH IS APPLYING PRESSURE AGAINST THE SYSTEM AND ELONGATING
THE MOISTURE FIELD WITH A RECENT SURGE OF DRY AIR BEGINNING TO
PENETRATE ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. TC ULA CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. A RECENT 020427Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND INTENSIFICATION. THE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES THE CORE
OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ISOLATED FROM THE DRY AIR ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
INCREASING VWS, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO THE EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND
030900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160102 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 177.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 177.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.1S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.1S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.7S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.9S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.7S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A LARGE, RAGGED EYE FEATURE,
AND DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ERODE AROUND THE PERIPHERY. THIS IS
ALSO EVIDENT ON A 021438Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM KNES AND PGTW SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF
90 KNOTS. TC ULA CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING VWS, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL
LEAD TO THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK
SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160103 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 179.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 179.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.7S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.5S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.8S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.5S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.2S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.9S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 179.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW DEGRAD-
ATION OF THE EYE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT THE COMPACT SYSTEM
REMAINS WELL DEFINED. INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC ULA CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING VWS, AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM
BY TAU 96. BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN, THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO TAU 96 AS THE RATE OF DISSIPATION HAS
SLOWED. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFORE-
MENTIONED TRACK SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160103 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 179.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 179.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.4S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.6S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.6S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.6S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.1S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.4S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 179.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE. HOWEVER, A 031853Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO WELL
DEFINED EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77-102 KNOTS.
TC ULA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE,
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO BUILD.
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING VWS, AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY
TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRACK SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160104 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 22.3S 179.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 179.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.5S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.5S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.4S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.2S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.7S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.5S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 179.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM SOUTH OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DO
TO THE INCREASE IN VWS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 70 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AN KNES REFLECT
THIS WEAKENING TREND. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT HAS WEAKENED,
ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND TRACK MORE WESTWARD INTO AN AREA
OF DECREASING SSTS, INCREASING VWS, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE
IMPACTS WILL LEAD TO THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU
96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRACK SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND 050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160104 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 22.0S 178.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 178.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.9S 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.8S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.7S 176.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.6S 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.4S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.8S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 178.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DIMINISHING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED BUT STILL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE REMAINDER
OF THE SYSTEM. A 041807Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE ASSOCIATED
WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND UNCHANGED DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 06P IS BEING IMPACTED BY
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS SUSTAINING THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC ULA WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND IS
FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME FURTHER SPREAD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A
MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE RECURVES THE SYSTEM SOUTH TO SOME
DEGREE; HOWEVER, GFS AND GFDN CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
ALL MODELS SHOW THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A POLEWARD TURN. BASED ON THIS, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160105 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 21.8S 177.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 177.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.4S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.1S 176.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.9S 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.8S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.8S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.0S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 177.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 227 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT IS PARTLY OBSCURING A STILL DEFINED,
ALBEIT RAGGED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANLYSIS INDICATES TC 06P IS BEING IMPACTED BY LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS
PARTLY OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS SUSTAINING THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC ULA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME FURTHER
SPREAD WITH COTC AS THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIER FAVORING A STRONGER
CYCLONE RECURVING POLEWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN FAVOR OF A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160105 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 177.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 177.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.4S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.9S 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.4S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.1S 174.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.1S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 176.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WANING CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED AND FULLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS FURTHER ILLUSTRATES A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE; HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS STILL WELL DEFINED IN A 051807Z
SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM NFFN, KNES, AND
PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES DISCONNECTED FROM THE MOISTURE BELT TO THE EAST AND
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS DRY
AIR NEARLY SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. TC 06P CONTINUES TO TRACK
EQUATORWARD DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO ADJUST BACK TO A
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED WHICH SUPPORTS
A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TURNS SLIGHTLY POLEWARD AND
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE, THE RECENT UNEXPECTED
EQUATORWARD SHIFT IN STORM MOTION LEADS TO LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160106 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 176.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 176.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.7S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.4S 175.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 176.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SHRUNK AND BECOME MORE SHALLOW,
ALBEIT STILL FLARING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RAGGED
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
PLACED CLOSE TO THE CLUSTER OF 060600Z AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT WAS SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED. ADDITIONALLY, A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS IMPEDING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IN THE LOW LEVELS, DRY
AIR IS INTRUDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WRAPPING INTO THE CORE. THE
CYCLONE IS, HOWEVER, TRACKING ON WARM WATERS THAT WILL HELP SLOW DOWN
ITS DECAY. BY TAU 24, TC 06P WILL DISSIPATE DUE TO THE NEGATIVE NET
EFFECT OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL DYNAMICS. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
OF REGENERATION BEYOND TAU 24 AS INDICATED BY NUMERIC INTENSITY AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160106 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 175.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 175.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.9S 175.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.4S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.1S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.1S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.0S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 175.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 061754Z
SSMIS IMAGE SHOWING A DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
KNES AND PGTW. TC 06P HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SITUATED TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER AND TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 06P HAS
APPROXIMATELY MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE LLCC IS TRACKING FARTHER EQUATORWARD
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN HIGHER CURRENT AND
ANTICIPATED ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER SEA
SURFACE AND SUFFICIENT UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT THE
SYSTEM FROM DISSIPATING IN THE NEAR-TERM, HENCE THE FORECAST PERIOD
HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 72 HOURS FOR THE CURRENT WARNING. TC 06P IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY POLEWARD BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE. SLOW WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS
AND ALONG-TRACK OCEAN TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUFFICIENT BUT MARGINAL.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST
TRACK, WITH INCREASING SPREAD BEYOND THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160107 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 175.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 175.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.8S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.7S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.7S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.0S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.4S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 174.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
HAS SLOWLY DECREASED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES HAVE BEEN STEADY, RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THE RECENT INCREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
DATA. SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE SEEN MARGINAL IMPROVEMENTS IN THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS THE SYSTEM HAS
MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. UPPER LEVEL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE, SUPPORTING THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT
IN ORGANIZATION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS CREATING THE WEAK STEERING FLOW, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO
THE WEST, TURNING TC 06P TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS TC ULA MOVES INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL
LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED WITH DECREASING SPREAD, WITH THE CURRENT FORE-
CAST NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 072100Z AND 080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160107 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 174.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 174.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.6S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.7S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.1S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.7S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.0S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.3S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 30.5S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 174.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 071909Z SSMIS 91
GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND COOLING
CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS, AND RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5, THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. TC 06P HAS INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO INCREASING ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY TREND AND GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE INCREASED
INCREMENTALLY AND THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 120
HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WEAKENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS RESULTED IN THE
OBSERVED SLOW TRANSLATIONAL SPEED. HOWEVER, THE STEERING FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM
TOWARD AND AROUND THE STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 120. THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, CONSISTENT WITH
OBSERVED TRENDS IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE TRACK FORECAST
THROUGH TAU 72 IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BY GOOD DYNAMIC
MODEL AGREEMENT. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
RESULTING IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 120 TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160108 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 174.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 174.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.4S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.7S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.5S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.8S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.2S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 28.5S 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 31.8S 176.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 174.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN BUILDING
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH A SHARP EDGE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE,
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVELS (10 TO 15 KNOTS) OF EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE FAVORABLE LEVELS OF
WESTERLY OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN WEAKLY
FAVORABLE, IN THE 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE, AS TC 06P TRACKS
SLOWLY WESTWARD WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST, ENGAGING A STRONGER STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, TAKING TC ULA TO THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THIS PERIOD, A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLOW PERIOD OF DEVELOPMENT,
ALLOWING THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY TO REACH 65 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TAU 48. BEYOND THAT TIMEFRAME, DECREASING SSTS
AND A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CAUSE A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND TO DEVELOP. IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST,
THESE INFLUENCES WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED, WITH GREATER MID-
LATITUDE INTERACTION AROUND TAU 96 AND WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION OF
THE SYSTEM TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CIRCULATION. THE STR WILL BUILD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA, CAUSING AN EVENTUAL ACCELERATION INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160108 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 173.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 173.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.0S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.7S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.9S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.2S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.6S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 29.8S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 31.9S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 173.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 081856Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A 6-NM EYE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. IN RESPONSE, AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
INCREASED, RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77-90 KNOTS). THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON THE SATELLITE FIXES AND
SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 77 KNOTS.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE CYCLONE PRODUCING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NEAR 28 CELSIUS. TC 06P IS IN THE PROCESS OF
TRANSITIONING TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 36, VWS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SSTS WILL DECREASE, BEGINNING THE
WEAKENING TREND. TC ULA WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 06P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
NEAR TAU96 AS IT EMBEDS IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL
COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160109 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 172.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 172.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.8S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.9S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.4S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.4S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 29.3S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 31.9S 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 172.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM WEST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 090437Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THAT ULA HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY,
WITH A 10-NM EYE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE
INCREASED TO 5.0/5.0 AND THEREFORE THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 90 KNOTS. TC 06P CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT AND HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 CELSIUS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ALLOWING TC 06P TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU
24. BY TAU 36, TC 06P WILL BE AT THE CREST OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TURNING TO THE SOUTH, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
WEAKENING AS VWS INCREASES AND IT TRACKS OVER COLDER WATERS. BY TAU
72, TC 06P WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS IT COMES UNDER THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER
WATER BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z AND 100900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160109 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 171.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 171.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.4S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.7S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.6S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.5S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 31.1S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 171.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE CORE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WHICH SUPPORTS THE INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TO 115 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC ULA IS ENCOUNTERING
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 27 CELSIUS, AND GOOD
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 20NM EYE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
NEAR TAU 24, TC 06P WILL REACH THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND
TURN POLEWARD. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLING SSTS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ERODE THE CORE STRUCTURE AND THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160110 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 170.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 170.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.3S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.5S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.6S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 28.7S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 31.8S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 170.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED THAT TC 06P HAS MAINTAINED A WELL DEFINED 14-NM EYE OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE
ALSO MAINTAINED AT T6.0; WARNING INTENSITY THEREFORE REMAINS AT 115
KNOTS. TC 06P REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) NEAR 27 CELSIUS, AND GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 14-NM EYE. TC
06P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL REACH THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 12
AND TURN MORE SOUTHWARD. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND
COOLING SSTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ERODE THE CORE STRUCTURE AND THE
SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WHICH
SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160110 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 170.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 170.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.3S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.7S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 29.2S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 30.8S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 33.1S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 170.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT
HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC AND ELONGATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE
TO INCREASED NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE HAS NEARLY LOST ITS EYE FEATURE AND CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE
CORE HAVE WARMED. A 101525Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE STILL SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE; HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND AN
ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED BASED ON DECLINING
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTS THE
WEAKENING SEEN IN ALL IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 06P IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN AXIS OF
THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS THE
CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. VWS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE,
ACCELERATING THE WEAKENING TREND. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160111 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 24.0S 170.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 170.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.3S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 28.3S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 30.0S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 31.3S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 170.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE (VIS) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A CLOUD
COVERED AND INDISTINCT CENTER. A 100355Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES THAT THE EYE FEATURE IS WEAKENING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE,
WITH ALL DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE VIS LOOP AND AN
ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON
DECLINING INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND IS SUPPORTED BY
THE WEAKENING SEEN IN ALL IMAGERY. TC 06P IS MOVING INTO A VERY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 06P HAS PASSED THE
AXIS OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND HAS TURNED JUST EAST OF
SOUTHWARD AND BEGUN TO ACCELERATE IN FOWARD MOTION. OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS TC 06P WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. VWS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE, ALLOWING
FOR RAPID WEAKENING. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160111 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 26.1S 170.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S 170.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 28.1S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 29.6S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 30.5S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 171.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM SOUTHEAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
IS CURRENTLY AT HIGH LEVELS (25 TO 35 KNOTS). THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE UNFAVORABLE AT 25 CELSIUS AND EXPECTED TO
STEADILY DECREASE AS TC 06P MOVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOLING SSTS
WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL (ET)
CIRCULATION BY TAU 24. TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ET BY TAU 36.
THIS IS A SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING A DISSIPATION
SCENARIO DUE TO MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LLCC WILL PERSIST AS AN ET
SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 36, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160112 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 28.3S 172.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3S 172.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 29.5S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 30.4S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 173.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, A 120659Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS AN LLCC WITH TIGHTLY CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SURFACE
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW,
STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR (VWS), AND COOL (24
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC ULA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A REGION OF EVEN COLDER SSTS
AND HIGHER VWS VALUES OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND WILL
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24,
THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160112 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 29.5S 175.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S 175.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 29.8S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 175.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 443 NM NORTH OF
AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A DECOUPLING OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS AT
HIGH LEVELS (40 TO 50 KNOTS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT
RSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES, INDICATING THE LLCC REMAINS SYMMETRICALLY
ORGANIZED WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. GIVEN THE RECENT
WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED SINCE THE COLLECTION OF THE IMAGES, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. INCREASING DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VWS
MAINTAINING HIGH LEVELS HAS STARTED THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) PROCESS. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE ETT PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18
FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_ula_jtwc_advisories.htm
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