Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone URIAH : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2015-2016 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone URIAH Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20160212 04:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6S 98.2E TO 14.9S 94.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 97.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S
96.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 97.5E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION BANDING INTO AN
EXISTING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120246Z 89 GHZ AMSU-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT AT THIS TIME. A PARTIAL 120247Z
ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS 25-30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING
OFFSET BY A STRONG DUAL (POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD) OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130430Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20160213 04:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120421Z FEB 16//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 120430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 95.9E TO 14.7S 91.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 130400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 95.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S
96.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 95.3E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND.
A 122338Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WITH
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A
RECENT ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE-STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 120430).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
140430Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160213 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130421Z FEB 16//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 12.5S 94.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 94.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.4S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.6S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.8S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.6S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.7S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.7S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.6S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 93.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE LLCC. A 131149Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (PGTW, KNES) TO T3.0 (APRF).
TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 96 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 96, TC 13S SHOULD TURN MORE
POLEWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS MORE POLEWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. TC 13S SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO
PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24
TC 13S SHOULD TRACK INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOWER VWS AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW (AFTER TAU 72), WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GREATER INTENSIFICATION RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 130430Z FEB 16 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160214 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 92.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 92.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.8S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.9S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.8S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.4S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.7S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.6S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.7S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 91.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
132141Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A FORMATIVE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF, AND TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT A 131547Z ASCAT PASS WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 40 KNOT BARBS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE(20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13S
IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TAU 96, ALLOWING URIAH TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS.
AFTER TAU 96, VWS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING TROUGH,
WHICH WILL RE-ORIENT THE STR AND TURN THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
141500Z AND 150300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160214 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 90.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 90.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.9S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.8S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.5S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.2S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.8S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.2S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.7S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 90.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHED DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM, HOWEVER, MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION. A 141018Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THROUGH TAU 72 THEN TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS
NORTH-SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72, SPECIFICALLY IN THE
DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. TC 13S IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS
THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160215 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 88.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 88.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.6S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.1S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.6S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.1S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.2S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.2S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.7S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 88.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1090 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVER
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, WHILE CURVED BANDING IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
MORE SPIRAL. A 142129Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THIS SPIRAL CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ON THE
EDGE OF THE SWATH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN INTERPOLATION
OF THE SSMIS IMAGE AND AGENCY FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS PRONOUNCED. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION
RATE. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
TWELVE HOURS AND INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESUME. URIAH IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 72, AND THEN DEFLECT TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS. BEYOND TAU 72,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL DISSIPATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72, SPECIFICALLY IN THE DEGREE
AND TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160215 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 87.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.1S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.5S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.8S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.5S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.1S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.2S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.5S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 87.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DUE
PRIMARILY TO PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). HOWEVER, A 151004Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING
YET BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH
SHOULD FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48
THEN TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS NORTH-SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AS A STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU
72. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO
INCREASING VWS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160216 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 86.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 86.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.9S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.3S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.0S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.1S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.2S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.1S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.5S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 86.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 682NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. A 152101Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A WELL-DEFINED, BROAD MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, SUPPORTING THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
AIR INTO THE SYSTEM IS LIMITING INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC URIAH IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48 THEN TURN
MORE SOUTHWARD AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATION. AFTER TAU 72, TC URIAH WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN
TWO DEEP-LAYER RIDGES, BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 96. TC URIAH
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 80 KNOTS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS
AND LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72, LEADING TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND
170300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160216 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 84.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 84.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.4S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.0S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.2S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.5S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.7S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 23.3S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.0S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 946 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN IMPROVEMENT IN SYSTEM STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 16NM EYE FEATURE. MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM A
161249Z SSMIS PASS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE MICROWAVE EYE THAT PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS) AND REFLECTS THE INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION. TC URIAH IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION; 29
CELSIUS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. TC URIAH IS EXPECTED TO
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO PERSISTING
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. TC URIAH WILL TURN SOUTHWARD NEAR TAU 36 AS IT
REACHES THE STEERING STR AXIS. CONCURRENTLY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR
WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CREATING A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WILL SLOW THE TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160217 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 17.9S 81.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 81.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.3S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.8S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.0S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.0S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 22.5S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.1S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.5S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 81.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 838 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN SYSTEM STRUCTURE WITH DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 12 NM EYE WHICH HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST
TWO HOURS. A 162244Z GPM 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A WELL-DEFINED, SYMMETRIC
MICROWAVE EYE THAT PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
TC URIAH HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS SUPPORTED BY THE INCREASED CORE CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS, BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.0 AND T5.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY.
THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING TC URIAH REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF
FURTHER NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. WHILE TC URIAH IS A COMPACT
SYSTEM THAT IS NEARLY COCOONED IN MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, IT HAS
DEVELOPED AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE ON TOP OF THE CORE, ENABLING A
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, NOW LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, HAVE ENABLED THE RECENT RI. TC URIAH IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK BY THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, TC URIAH WILL TURN
SOUTHWARD AS IT REACHES THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE. CONCURRENTLY
A MID-LEVEL TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
CREATING A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WILL SLOW THE TRACK
SIGNIFICANTLY, BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 72. TC URIAH WILL
ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN BY TAU 96 IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP-
LAYER STR BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH UNCERTAINTY AFTER
THAT DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, GIVING MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND
180300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160217 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.6S 80.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 80.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.0S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.4S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.5S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.2S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.3S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.4S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 29.1S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 79.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY SYMMETRIC CORE WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WELL DEFINED 19NM EYE THAT SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 171236Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT HAS HELPED STRENGTHEN THE
SYSTEM AND AIDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
115 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM
KNES AND PGTW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE AROUND 28 CELSIUS
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS). THIS COUPLED
WITH THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO
125 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS BEFORE VWS INCREASES AND SST
DECREASES AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD. TC URIAH IS CURRENTLY TRAVELING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL SLOW BY
TAU 24 AS IT REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. BY TAU 72, TC URIAH WILL
ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160218 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 19.9S 79.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 79.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.4S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.5S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.4S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.2S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.2S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 27.0S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 29.9S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 79.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 859 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WELL
DEFINED 12 NM EYE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM PGTW.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S IS NOW LOCATED IN A MODERATE
(15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS
EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC URIAH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DOMINANT STEERING AFOREMENTIONED STR. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS URIAH GAINS LATITUDE, LEADING TO ITS
WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160218 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 22.0S 78.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 78.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.2S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.9S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.3S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.7S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.6S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 28.0S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 78.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 963 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. AN 181105Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM BOTH
PGTW AND KNES. TC 13S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24 AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST WHILE A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 13S TO
ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM
(UNREALISTIC WESTWARD TRACK), THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK. TC
13S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF 25S, IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COLDER SST, WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z AND 191500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160219 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 24.1S 78.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S 78.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.9S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 25.4S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.9S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 26.6S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 28.3S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 78.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1084 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. AN
182220Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE AS WELL AS SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES URIAH IS LOCATED IN A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS A
TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE OVERALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK. TC
13S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF 25S, IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COLDER SST, WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 OR POSSIBLY
SOONER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160219 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 24.9S 77.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 77.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 25.0S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.2S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.7S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 26.5S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 77.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1110 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, A
191051Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THIS IS CLEARLY SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A 190435Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING
NUMEROUS 50-KNOT WIND VECTORS. TC 13S, HOWEVER, IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO COOLER SST AND PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SLOW
TRACK SPEEDS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH,
WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC TRACK WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160220 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 25.7S 78.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 78.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 26.2S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 78.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10107 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SLIDELL, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 20 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_uriah_jtwc_advisories.htm
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