Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone VICTOR : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2015-2016 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTPS21 PGTW 20160114 10:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S 164.7W TO 15.8S 164.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 164.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 165.3W, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 164.1W, APPROXIMATELY 394 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AND WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A BETTER-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC IS EASILY DISCERNIBLE FROM THE 140835Z AMSUB-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE. ADDITIONALLY, A 140609Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC
WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER. HOWEVER, 30 KNOT WIND
BARBS WITHIN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMATIVE BAND TO
THE NORTHEAST HAVE BEGUN TO WRAP CLOSER INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WITH
CHANNELS ON BOTH THE EQUATOR AND POLEWARD SIDE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24-36
HOURS AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED BANDING AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151030Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160114 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141021ZJAN16//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 165.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 165.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.5S 165.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.9S 166.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.2S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.9S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.4S 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.9S 165.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.0S 165.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 165.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING WITHIN THE CURVED BANDING THAT IS
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
141815Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON
THE IMPROVED OVERALL STRUCTURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A T2.5 (35 KNOT)
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM NFFN AND PGTW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SLOWLY POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTERWARDS, THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE DUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 72. IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, VWS WILL INCREASE AS SSTS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF,
BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
BIFURCATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NAVGEM AND HWRF SHOW THE
SYSTEM ROUNDING THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ACCELERATING
SOUTHEASTWARD. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT A STR BUILDING
IN SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE CREATING QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. DUE TO
LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IN POOR AGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 141021ZJAN16 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
141030).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160115 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 166.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 166.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.7S 166.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.2S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.7S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.9S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.5S 165.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.0S 165.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.3S 164.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 166.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150517Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING NEARLY WRAPPING COMPLETELY
AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN
THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED OVERALL STRUCTURE AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A T2.5 (35 KNOT) DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW
AND KNES AND A T3.0 (45 KNOT) DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PHFO. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TOP OF THE LLCC, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 30 DEG CELSIUS AND (SSTS) AND VERY HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SLOWLY POLEWARD, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 72. IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, TC 07P WILL BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS AND OHC. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TRACK
THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN A PRONOUNCED SPREADING BEYOND TAU 36. NAVGEM
AND GFDN TAKE A WEAKER SYSTEM FURTHER WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING
SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A STR BUILDING IN SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE
CREATING QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT BY TAU 120. AVNO AND HWRF
INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IN THE INITIAL TAUS BEFORE RAPIDLY
MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE DYNAMIC MODEL FIELDS, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160115 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 166.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 166.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.8S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.1S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.7S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.7S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.4S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.6S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.2S 167.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM EAST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONSOLIDATION OF
BANDING, DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
INDICATE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ARE FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING TC 07P THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) VALUES WILL REMAIN POSITIVE NORTH OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH
AND WILL ENHANCEMENT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE LLCC
AND IS CREATING AMPLE OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM. THIS DIVERGENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE 96 TO 120 TIMEFRAME. AS SSTS AND OHC DECREASE
AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WEAKENS, BEYOND TAU 96, THE OVERALL INTENSITY
WILL DECREASE, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL
CYCLONE. TC 07P HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, CAUSING A SOUTHWARD TURN WITH MARGINAL
ACCELERATION THROUGH TAU 72. A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF
TC VICTOR. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
LEADING TO IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK HAS
BEEN KEPT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CONSENSUS AS IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY
SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND
162100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160116 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 166.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 166.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.8S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.8S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.8S 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.8S 165.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.5S 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.0S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.5S 167.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 166.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH THE
FORMATION OF A RAGGED EYE FEATURE BECOMING CLOUD-FILLED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A 160556Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD
MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS). THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND HIGH OHC VALUES WILL ALSO AID IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD. TC 07P IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARD BY
A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48 CAUSING TC VICTOR TO RECURVE TO
THE WEST AROUND TAU 72 AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 72
THROUGH 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, WITH SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS
IN LATER TAUS. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160116 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 166.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 166.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.1S 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.0S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.8S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.0S 166.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.0S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.2S 167.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.8S 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 166.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM EAST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 07P HAS
BEEN UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF CYCLIC DEVELOPMENT AND WEAKENING WITH A
WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE OBSERVED ONLY TO DEGENERATE AND BECOME
CLOUD-FILLED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE T4.0/4.5 DVORAKS FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH AN
OLDER RSCAT PASS SHOWING A DIRECT PASS OVER THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM,
HELPING TO DEFINE THE WIND FIELD. A RECENT 1346Z SSMIS 37H MICROWAVE
IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE EYE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS OBSCURED THE EYE IN THE EIR IMAGERY.
SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) IN THE 27 TO 28 CELSIUS RANGE, AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AVAILABLE TO THE NORTH OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF TC 07P IS SUPPORTING A VERY FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW PATTERN,
WITH ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM LEVELS (10 TO 15 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION, LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF TC 07P, TO BUILD SOUTHWARD STEERING TC VICTOR TO THE
SOUTH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 07P BEYOND TAU 48, TURNING THE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LESS FAVORABLE SSTS AROUND 20
DEGREES SOUTH WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE INTENSITY, BUT
OVERALL THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE STEERING
RIDGE DEVELOPMENT AND THE CURRENT QUASI-STATIONARY POSITIONING OF TC
07P, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160117 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 166.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 166.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.5S 166.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.6S 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.8S 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.6S 166.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.4S 167.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.8S 169.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.7S 170.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 170627Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS WITHIN THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC VICTOR WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG AN AREA OF WARM SST (27 TO 28
DEGREE CELSIUS) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TRACKING OVER COOLER WATER LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC
07P IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARD BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
36 CAUSING TC VICTOR TO TRACK WESTWARD AROUND TAU 48. FROM TAU 72
THROUGH 120, A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW IN
FORWARD SPEED. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160117 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 166.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 166.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.6S 166.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.9S 166.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.8S 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.1S 167.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.4S 169.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.6S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.8S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN THE
DEEP LAYERED BANDING CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF TC 07P. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS TO REFLECT THIS LOSS OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN THE BANDING FEATURES. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN
STEADY AT T4.0 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SUPPORT THIS RECENT DROP IN
INTENSITY. TC 07P IS TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A
DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDI-
CATES THE STR WILL BUILD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC VICTOR IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SHIFTING THE TRACK TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 96.
AFTER WHICH, TC 07P WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THIS STR EXTENSION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, SUGGESTING A MORE STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) DECREASING BELOW 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS POLEWARD OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
SLOWLY INCREASES AFTER TAU 24. THE FORECASTS PEAK INTENSITY OF 80
KNOTS AT TAU 24 IS BASED ON THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT PERSISTING WITH
THE AN OBSERVED INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO
A MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. EVENTUALLY THE DECREASING SSTS AND THE
STEADY INCREASE IN VWS WILL CREATE A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160118 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 166.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 166.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.2S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.9S 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.2S 167.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.4S 168.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.4S 170.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.2S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 24.8S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 166.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 180614Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CLOUD-TOPS HAVE COOLED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
INCREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5, WHICH SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
VICTOR WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG AN AREA OF WARM SST
(27C) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TRACKING OVER COOLER WATER LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC 07P IS
BEING STEERED SOUTHWARD BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 CAUSING TC VICTOR TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND THEN WEST.
AFTER TAU 72, A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST, RECURVING THE SYSTEM, AND THEN ACCELERATING IT SOUTHWARD. TC
07P WILL BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH
COLDER WATER AND HIGHER VWS VALUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
ENTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES BY TAU 120 AND THEREAFTER.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSOLIDATED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OVER
THE LAST COUPLE RUNS, THEREFORE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160118 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 20.1S 166.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 166.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.6S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.1S 167.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.3S 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.4S 169.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.4S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.7S 175.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.0S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 166.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM WEST
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A RAGGED EYE
WHICH HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN SIZE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
AN 180728Z PARTIAL SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTED A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AND REFLECT THE DECREASE IN THE EYE DIAMETER.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE WITH ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WHILE THIS OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 07P WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TC 07P HAS REACHED MAXIMUM
INTENSITY AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12. THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST IS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE
AND IS BUILDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, STEERING THE SYSTEM ONTO A
WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD. AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH, TC 07P WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR
A SHORT TIME BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AFTER TAU 120 AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MUCH COLDER WATER AND HIGH VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES BY TAU 120 AND
THEREAFTER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSOLIDATED ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 96, AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS
32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160119 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 20.8S 167.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 167.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.2S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.5S 169.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.6S 170.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.8S 171.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 23.0S 172.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 25.9S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 28.8S 173.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 167.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
WEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A RAGGED 35NM EYE; HOWEVER, ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. A 190528Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SMALLER
(25NM) AND MORE DEFINED EYE FEATURE SUPPORTING THE CURRENT POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES HAVE HELD STEADY AT T5.0 (90 KTS); HOWEVER, SATCON
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 81 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC VICTOR IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE DUE TO
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING
TREND. TC 07P WILL BEGIN A WEAK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS SUPPORTING A WESTWARD
TRACK AND FURTHER WEAKENING, BUT SPREADS BEYOND TAU 36 AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ABSORBS THE CYCLONE. THE INCREASING MODEL
SPREAD BEYOND TAU 36 LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160119 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 167.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 167.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.4S 168.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.8S 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.1S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.4S 172.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 24.4S 174.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.6S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 30.6S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 168.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 406 NM EAST
OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN
ASYMMETRIC EAST-WEST ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED 45-NM EYE. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, IT HAS BECOME WEAKER AND SHALLOWER IN
DEPTH. BLENDED MICROWAVE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY
INDICATES DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO TC VICTOR FROM THE NORTH. THIS,
COMBINED WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
OF T4.0, RESULT IN A REDUCTION OF INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KTS. TC
VICTOR REMAINS IN A LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ENVIRONMENT (10-20KTS) WITH A WELL-DEFINED EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
DUE TO ITS RELATIVELY SHALLOW VERTICAL EXTENT, THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM FOR TC VICTOR IS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND RECEDE
EASTWARD, ALLOWING TC VICTOR TO TURN TO THE SOUTH. CONCURRENTLY, TC
VICTOR WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, MAINTAINING STRENGTH FOR A SHORT TIME DUE TO INCREASED
OUTFLOW, BEFORE AGAIN WEAKENING AS SHEAR INCREASES. TC VICTOR WILL
BEGIN A WEAK EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS SUPPORTING A
WESTWARD TRACK AND FURTHER WEAKENING, BUT SPREADS BEYOND TAU 48 AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEM. THE INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD BEYOND TAU 48 LEADS TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160120 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 21.6S 168.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 168.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.7S 169.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.7S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.7S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.1S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 24.6S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 28.0S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 31.4S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 169.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST
OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
STEADY CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED 45-NM
EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A
200514Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A DETERIORATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A POOR DEPICTION OF THE PREVIOUSLY WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED MICROWAVE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER (TPW) IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL BAND OF DRY AIR BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN INTO TC 07P FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL HINDER FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATE THE
INTENSITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, AND A 200515Z
SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 68 KTS WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
INTENSITY. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND A STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WHICH IS SUSTAINING THE LIMITED CONVECTION. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC VICTOR IS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A
WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. BY TAU 48
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING THE VWS. CONCURRENTLY, TC 07P WILL ALSO ROUND THE STR
AXIS, INDUCING A SOUTHWARD TRACK INTO COLDER SSTS FURTHER
EXACERBATING THE WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 96 TC VICTOR WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES, BECOMING A WEAK COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST WITH NAVGEM AS THE
LONE OUTLIER, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160120 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 21.5S 169.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 169.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.5S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.5S 172.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.0S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 23.3S 174.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.1S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.8S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 169.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST
OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED
CENTRAL CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 20-NM DIAMETER EYE, SUPPORTING THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07P
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY THE VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUFLOW, AS EVIDENT
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC VICTOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT GAINS LATITUDE, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. DESPITE THE
LARGE SPREAD AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS AFTER TAU 36, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE TURN
NEAR TAU 48, THE TRACK CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOW LOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210900Z AND 212100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160121 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 171.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 171.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.5S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.8S 174.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.8S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 24.6S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 27.7S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.5S 177.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 171.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DECOUPLING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH WARMING CLOUD-
TOPS, INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ENTER ANOTHER
WEAKENING PHASE. A 210628Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LLCC
REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED, HOWEVER, IT IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT DVORAK VALUES OF T4.0 FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY MARGINAL (26C) SEA-
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC VICTOR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST
WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD AT
TAU 48. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AS IT GAINS LATITUDE, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 48. TC VICTOR IS
FORECAST TO BE FULLY DISSIPATED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND
220900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160121 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 172.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 172.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.1S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 23.1S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 25.0S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.9S 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 172.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159 NM EAST OF
TONGA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM HAS DRASTICALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES REFLECT THIS WEAKENING
TREND. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS FURTHER ENHANCED THE
SEPARATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND
WILL STEADILY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHWARD IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS, IN COMBINATION WITH
MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE
LLCC AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SUPPORTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160122 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 22.0S 174.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 174.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 23.1S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 24.8S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 174.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 473 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, A 220704Z 91 GHZ IMAGE STILL SHOWS TIGHT SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. TC VICTOR IS BEING STEERED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND HAS ENTERED A REGION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS. TC VICTOR IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 AS IT
BECOMES FULLY ENVELOPED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM MAY REGAIN
INTENSITY WITHIN THE TROUGH AFTER TAU 36 AS IT ATTAINS SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WARNING CYCLE MAY INCLUDE
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IF NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS AND ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE CONVERGE ON THAT SOLUTION. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SUPPORTED BY
A TIGHT PACKING OF MODEL FORECAST TRACKS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 222100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160122 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 22.9S 176.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 176.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 24.6S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 176.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0. TC VICTOR HAS
TURNED MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BEING STEERED
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC VICTOR HAS
MOVED INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH HAVE CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SUPPORTED BY A TIGHT PACKING OF MODEL
FORECAST TRACKS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_victor_jtwc_advisories.htm
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