Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone WINSTON : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2015-2016 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTPS22 PGTW 20160210 05:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7S 169.6E TO 17.5S 172.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 100000Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 170.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1S
170.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 170.0E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100216Z GPM 36
GHZ IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH GOOD SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS 25 TO 30
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WHICH IS IN LINE WITH LATEST
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5-2.0. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW-MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATING
LLCC AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160210 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100451ZFEB16//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 170.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 170.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.7S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.0S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.5S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.1S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.5S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 26.7S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 26.4S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 171.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 463 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 101003Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. OVERALL,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS). TC 11P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 11P SHOULD
ENCOUNTER STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
WHILE TURNING EASTWARD. TC 11P IS NOT FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND SHOULD SLOW AFTER TAU 96 AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. TC 11P IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 60
DUE TO EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SST AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF 25S DUE TO COOLER SST AND STRONG
VWS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 100500Z FEB 16 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 100500).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160211 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 15.7S 171.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 171.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.8S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.1S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.8S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.4S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.7S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.8S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 25.5S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 171.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 443 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH TIGHTENING SPIRAL BANDING.
A 102204Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
MULTIPLE AGENCIES IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (31 CELSIUS) AND HAS VERY GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD,
PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS BY TAU 48. TC 11P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72 TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
TAKING AN EASTERN TRACK. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160211 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 16.7S 171.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 171.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.0S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.9S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.3S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.1S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.0S 175.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 24.8S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.0S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 171.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SPIRALING INTO A
TIGHT, CLOUD COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 111251Z
GPM 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A SMALL AND WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. AN
111035Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 50 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT, CONFIRMING BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE WIND RADII.
TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXTREMELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) EXCEEDING 31 CELSIUS,
VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OF APPROXIMATELY 15-20 KNOTS. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
FOR TC WINSTON IS THE DEEP-LAYER, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC WINSTON IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE
STR BECOMES ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH, TC WINSTON WILL ROUND THE AXIS AND
TAKE A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. BY TAU 96 THE STR HAS REPOSITIONED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF TC WINSTON INDUCING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK EQUATORWARD
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, TC WINSTON WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS
IT TRACKS IN AN AREA OF VERY HIGH SSTS WITH VWS VALUES DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES INTO A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER
VWS VALUES AND DECREASING SSTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z AND 121500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160212 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 18.0S 171.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 171.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.8S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.2S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.1S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 25.2S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 24.8S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.7S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.2S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 171.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 388 NM WEST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A TIGHT SYMMETRIC SPIRAL WITH AN EYEWALL
BEGINNING TO FORM. A 112144Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 4.0 (65 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND PHFO. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH
WILL SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) WINSTON
IS CURRENTLY TRAVELING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TAU 48 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REPOSITION
TO THE NORTH AND STEER TC WINSTON ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z AND 130300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160212 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 171.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 171.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.0S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.1S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.9S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.7S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.5S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.3S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.5S 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 171.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO AN EXTREMELY WELL DEFINED AND CLOUD-FREE EYE FEATURE,
GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. TC WINSTON HAS
UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF 40 KNOTS IN THE PAST
12 HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES BETWEEN T5.5 AND T6.0 (102 TO 115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES RESPECTIVELY. TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE VERY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS, ALLOWING TC WINSTON TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TAU 36 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND
REPOSITIONS TO THE NORTH OF TC WINSTON, RESULTING IN A TURN TO THE
EAST THEN NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN AND MAINTAINS A GENERAL EAST-
NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER
THE NEAR-TERM RAPID INTENSIFICATION, TC WINSTON WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES OVER AREAS OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND SSTS,
WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY EXPERIENCING INCREASING VWS. HOWEVER, AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES BACK TO AN EASTWARD TRACK ALONG 20 DEGREES SOUTH
LATITUDE, OHC AND SSTS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AND VWS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE, THEREBY ALLOWING TC WINSTON TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160213 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 22.2S 171.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 171.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.1S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 25.2S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.9S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.8S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.0S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.2S 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.6S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 172.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 446 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
EYE REMAINS A CONSISTANT FEATURE, BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME PARTIALLY
CLOUD FILLED, WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES REFLECTING A
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. GIVEN THESE
OBSERVATIONS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED FROM 115
KNOTS, ON THE 121800Z OFF-CYCLE POSITION, TO 105 KNOTS. TC 11P
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), ANCHORED OVER FIJI, BUT BY TAU 36, THE STR
WILL SHIFT EQUATORWARD AS A MERIDIONAL PATTERNED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF TC WINSTON. THE TRACK WILL SHIFT TO A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE, TAKING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT OF THE GRADIENT FLOW AS THE TROUGH DIGS NORTHWARD.
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
FROM TAU 24 THROUGH TAU 48, BUT AS THE TRACK TAKES TC 11P
EQUATORWARD, INCREASING SSTS AND A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF RE-INTENSIFICATION FROM TAU 48 THROUGH TAU
120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160213 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 24.2S 172.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 172.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 25.2S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.1S 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 24.0S 177.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.7S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.9S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.9S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.0S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 173.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL, CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE WITH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD-TOPS BEGINNING TO WARM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS OCCURRING. A 130735Z SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING, HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO SHEAR TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
WESTWARD, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 11P TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
GRADUALLY THOUGH TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS WITHIN THE
TROUGH AND COLDER SSTS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72, THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
FILL AND TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO REGAIN SOME STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS
OVER MORE FAVORABLE SSTS AND LOWER VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE EQUATORWARD TRACK
MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(TATIANA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW 130900)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160214 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 25.3S 174.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 174.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.9S 176.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 24.1S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.7S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.5S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.2S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.7S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.8S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 175.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 11P IS MAINTAINING TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER,
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE RAGGED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON AGENCY FIXES AND AN EXTRAPOLATED 132151Z METOPB
MICROWAVE PARTIAL EYE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE NOTED DEGRADATION OF
CONVECTION CAUSING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO DROP. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS DEGRADATION IS DUE IN PART TO MODERATE TO
HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW
REMAINS ROBUST. TC 11P IS TURNING TOWARD A MORE EASTERWARD TRACK AS
THE SUB-TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) IS NOW LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO RECEED EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 24. AFTER TAU 72,
THE STR WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND REORIENT THE TRACK BACK TO AN
EASTWARD MOTION. VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NEXT 36-
48 HOURS, RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. AFTER THIS TIME,
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RE-
INTENSIFICATION TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE EQUATORWARD TRACK MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND
150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160214 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 25.0S 177.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 177.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.7S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.2S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.8S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.7S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.5S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.3S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.9S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 178.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM
SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS TC 11P HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 141017Z AMSU-B
89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED, SHALLOW BANDING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED UPON A 141018Z ASCAT IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED UPON THE RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA, AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET
BY MODERATE-STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
11P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO FORM BETWEEN TAU 48 THROUGH TAU 96, CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED, AND THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AFTER TAU 96, AS A SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC
WINSTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VWS. HOWEVER,
AFTER TAU 48, GRADUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
AS IT TRACKS OVER AN AREA WITH LOWER VWS AND WARMER SSTS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN
WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z
IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160215 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 23.0S 179.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 179.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.3S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.8S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.8S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.1S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.4S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.0S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.9S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 179.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 11P HAS MAINTAINED TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHALLOWED SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED UPON AGENCY FIXES AND A 142044Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED
UPON THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA WHICH HAD A SWATH OF 65 KNOT WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MORE RECENT AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL AS TC 11P REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HOWEVER
THE EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS ROBUST AND SSTS ARE GRADUALLY
RISING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EQUATORWARD. WINSTON IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND PROVIDES A WEAK STEERING
FLOW. BY DAY TWO, TC 11P WILL SLOW AS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGING FORMS AHEAD OF IT, RESULTING IN A SLOW TURN OR LOOP
BACK TO THE WEST STARTING AROUND DAY THREE. WINSTON IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VWS. AS THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVES OFF, GRADUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST AS IT TRACKS OVER AN AREA WITH LOWER VWS AND WARMER SSTS.
THIS INTENSIFICATION MAY BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS THE FOREWARD
MOTION STALLS DURING THE TURN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160215 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 178.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 178.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.3S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.1S 175.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.4S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.0S 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.8S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.4S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.3S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 177.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS TC 11P REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH, HOWEVER
DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND AND CLOUD-TOPS HAVE
COOLED OVER THE PAST 6-HOURS. A 151051Z GPM 36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
A 150958Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED UPON THE RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLY ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
WINSTON IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO FORM BETWEEN TAU 36 THROUGH TAU 72, CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED, AND THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AFTER TAU 36, AS A SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER TAU 72, TC 11P WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS AND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST MOVES
WESTWARD. TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY REGAIN INTENSITY
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS OVER WARMER (29-30C) SSTS
AND THROUGH A REGION OF DECREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, HOWEVER, SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
STEERING PATTERN. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160216 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 19.2S 175.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 175.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.1S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.7S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.5S 171.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.4S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.4S 170.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.5S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.8S 170.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 175.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DIURNAL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION NOW BANDING INTO A
WEAK, CLOUD-COVERED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 152108Z
89 GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SUPPORTING THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED UPON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
BETWEEN T3.0 AND T3.5. TC WINSTON REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT,
WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ABOVE 31 DEGREES CELSIUS,
BEING LIMITED BY A SINGLE OUTFLOW CHANNEL AROUND THE BASE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THIS WARNING CONTAINS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) TO THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE WESTERN STR WILL BUILD AND BEGIN TO MOVE
WESTWARD WHILE THE EASTERN STR WILL BUILD WHILE REMAINING NEARLY
QUASI-STATIONARY, CAUSING TC WINSTON TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED
SIGNIFICANTLY, BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72,
AND CONTRARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A SLOW
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS AN INDUCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
PATTERN AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD
AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REORIENTS TO THE NORTH. TC WINSTON IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
TRACKS OVER WARMER (29-30C) SSTS AND THROUGH A REGION OF DECREASING
VWS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY AND INCREASED UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER OCCURS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 36, WITH A
BIFURCATION INTO TWO DISTINCT SOLUTIONS DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160216 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 18.5S 174.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 174.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.9S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.5S 171.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.4S 171.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.3S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.3S 170.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.6S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.9S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 174.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD COLD DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 160601Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 55 KNOTS AND BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO
AND NFFN REPORTING T3.5 (55 KNOTS). TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED IN A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 CELSIUS) AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A STRONG WESTERLY OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS ALSO
SUPPORTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, TAPPING INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST IS
STEERING THE CYCLONE ALONG AN EASTWARD TRACK. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT BY TAU 36 THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
PROVIDING A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND TC WINSTON IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IS RELATIVELY HIGH WHICH WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION, AND TC
WINSTON IS EXPECTED TO REACH 95 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DUE TO THE WEAK AND
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT AS
THE CYCLONE BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY. THIS PROVIDES LOW CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BEYOND TAU 36. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF TC
WINSTON TO PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, WARNINGS WILL NOW BE ISSUED
EVERY SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160216 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 17.9S 173.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 173.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.4S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.1S 170.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.1S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.3S 170.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.6S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.9S 171.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.5S 172.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 173.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN AREA OF
INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED 23NM EYE, GIVING
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. A 160937Z SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS AND BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW REPORTING T4.0 (65 KNOTS). TC WINSTON IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 CELSIUS) AND LOW (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A STRONG WESTERLY OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS
ALSO SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION, TAPPING INTO A LONGWAVE
TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST IS STEERING THE CYCLONE ALONG AN EASTWARD TRACK. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY TAU 24 THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY PROVIDING A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND
TC WINSTON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND REMAIN IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT UNTIL APPROXIMATELY TAU 96 WHEN AN EAST-
WEST RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH SENDING TC WINSTON ON A
WESTWARD TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WHICH
WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION, AND TC WINSTON IS EXPECTED TO REACH
100 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DUE TO THE WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT AS THE CYCLONE
BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY; HOWEVER HAS IMPROVED WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TURN TO THE WEST. THIS PROVIDES LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK BEYOND TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND
171500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160216 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 172.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 172.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.2S 171.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.0S 170.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.0S 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.1S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.0S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.8S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.1S 174.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 172.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION IMPROVING SINCE THE
PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH OVERSHOOTING COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS WRAPPING
INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A 161812Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS CENTRAL CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW REPORTING T4.5. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN AN AREA THAT IS
ADVANTAGEOUS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30 CELSIUS), LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM IS A DEEP-LAYER NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TC WINSTON ON ITS CURRENT EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48, AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TC, A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL BUILD IN TO THE EAST, CAUSING TC
WINSTON TO RAPIDLY SLOW ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT, ULTIMATELY BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, UNDER THE COMBINED
INFLUENCE OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES, TC WINSTON WILL
TRANSLATE TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 96. AFTERWARDS,
THE TRACK WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWARD, TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN
THE STR AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, AND TC WINSTON
IS EXPECTED TO REACH 110 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
DISAGREEMENT BEYOND TAU 24, AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY,
BUT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN
FORECASTING THE TURN TO THE WEST. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BEYOND TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z AND 172100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160217 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 171.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 171.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.5S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.6S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.7S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.9S 171.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.8S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.5S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.2S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 171.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO IMPROVE WITH COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS WRAPPING
INTO A VERY COMPACT EYE THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS.
A 162321Z GPM 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION
COMPLETELY SURROUNDS A DISTINCT AND COMPACT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0
FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING TC WINSTON REMAINS FAVORABLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
VALUES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND ARE NOW IN THE LOW
RANGE (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE REMAINS HIGH (30
CELSIUS) AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN ADDITION TO THE ESTABLISHED EASTWARD
CHANNEL. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM REMAINS THE DEEP-LAYER NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TC
WINSTON ON ITS CURRENT EASTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, ALBEIT
AT A MUCH SLOWER PACE, TC WINSTON HAVING ALREADY SLOWED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TC, A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL
SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILD IN FROM THE EAST, CAUSING TC WINSTON TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, UNDER THE COMBINED
INFLUENCE OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES, TC WINSTON WILL
TRANSLATE TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND ACCELERATE THROUGH TAU
72. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC WINSTON
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
STR AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAK INTENSITY REACHING 125 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
THEREAFTER THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF
MAINTAINING TC WINSTON AS AN INTENSE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT STILL DEPICTS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 48. DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160217 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 171.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 171.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.5S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.6S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.9S 171.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.3S 172.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.3S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.1S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.0S 173.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 171.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM
NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING AN EYE OBSERVED
PREVIOUSLY. A 170548Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION, WITH NO NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRENGTH
OR ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IN THE LAST SIX HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES REPORTING CURRENT INTENSITIES OF T5.0
(90 KNOTS). RECENT ANIMATED CIMSS MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF DRY AIR BEGINNING TO BE ENTRAINED INTO TC WINSTON, WHICH
EXPLAINS THE LACK OF INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED IN THE LAST SIX HOURS
AND WILL HAMPER THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE FUTURE. HOWEVER,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH (30 CELSIUS), AND FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH LOW (10
TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TC
WINSTON IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 115 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TC WINSTON
IS CURRENTLY ENTERING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE A RIDGE
EXTENSION BUILDS SOUTH AND STEERS WINSTON ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK. BY
TAU 48 A TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL WEAKEN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ALLOW
A SECONDARY RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO
ASSUME STEERING, TURNING TC WINSTON TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK,
BUT MODELS VARY GREATLY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURNS, GIVING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND
180900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160217 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 171.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 171.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.6S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.7S 171.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.8S 172.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.1S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.0S 177.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.5S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.1S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 171.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH VERY SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION THAT HAS REMAINED MOSTLY UNCHANGED.
THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PROVIDES LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90
KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES REPORTING
CURRENT INTENSITIES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS). RECENT ANIMATED CIMSS MIMIC-
TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN BAND OF DRY AIR BEGINNING TO BE ENTRAINED
INTO TC WINSTON, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF INTENSIFICATION
OBSERVED IN THE LAST SIX HOURS AND WILL HAMPER THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION GOING FORWARD. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
HIGH (30 CELSIUS), AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48. TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY ENTERING A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE A RIDGE EXTENSION BUILDS SOUTH AND STEERS
WINSTON ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK. BY TAU 72 A TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
WEAKEN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ALLOW THE RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO ASSUME STEERING, TURNING TC WINSTON TO
THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL TRACK, BUT MODELS VARY GREATLY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN,
GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z,
180900Z AND 181500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160217 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 170.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 170.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.4S 170.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.4S 171.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.6S 173.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.0S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.0S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.9S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.8S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 170.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 171759Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN APPARENT MICROWAVE
EYE, SUPPORTING THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WINSTON IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, ALLOWING
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY DEGRADE, LEADING TO ITS WEAKENING TREND. SLOW AND/OR QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS TC WINSTON REMAINS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK IN THE
NEAR TERM, BUT VARIES GREATLY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN. IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS.
FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC TRACK CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160218 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 171.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 171.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.2S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.3S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.6S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.1S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.1S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.0S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.9S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 171.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A DEVELOPING EYE, SUPPORTING
THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WINSTON IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, ALLOWING STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS. AFTERWARD,
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE, LEADING TO ITS WEAKENING
TREND. SLOW AND/OR QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS TC
WINSTON REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD AS THE STR TO THE
SOUTH BECOMES DOMINANT. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACKS
AND TRACK SPEEDS AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS, THE JTWC TRACK CONFIDENCE
LEVEL REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160218 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 171.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 171.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.3S 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.5S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.7S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.9S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.6S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.8S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.0S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 171.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154 NM
NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
BROADENING, CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED, CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 180634Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS
BASED UPON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0-5.5
(90 TO 102 KNOTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WEAK (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). TC WINSTON HAS BEGUN TO PICK UP FORWARD SPEED AFTER
BEING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU
72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RE-CURVE TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST BY TAU 120, AS THE RIDGE RE-ORIENTS POLEWARD AND A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
FROM TAU 12 TO 24, AS VWS REMAINS WEAK, AND SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT TRACKS OVER
COLDER SSTS. TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER TAU
48 AS IT TRACKS OVER AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, AND THEN BEGINS TO
DIVERGE IN LATER TAUS, DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 192100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160218 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 172.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 172.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.3S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.5S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.8S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.1S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.8S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.8S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.3S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 172.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
LARGE, RAGGED EYE WITH CLOUD-TOP COOLING OBSERVED WITHIN THE EYE
WALL OVER THE PAST 6-HOURS. A 180951Z GPM 36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
LARGE MICROWAVE EYE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100
KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102
KNOTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
WINSTON HAS BEGUN TO PICK UP FORWARD SPEED AFTER BEING QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO RE-CURVE TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY TAU 120,
AS THE RIDGE RE-ORIENTS POLEWARD AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM TAU 12 TO 24,
AS VWS REMAINS WEAK, AND SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS. TC
WINSTON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 48 AS IT MOVES
OVER AN AREA WITH INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
IMPROVED CONFIDENCE AS INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160218 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 173.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 173.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.7S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.0S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.3S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.7S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.2S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.4S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.5S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 173.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 219 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 181723Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SYMMETRIC
SIGNATURE WITH AN APPARENT EYE FEATURE, SUPPORTING THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105
KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CORRESPONDING DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WEAK (5 TO 10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WINSTON IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. BY
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS. TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY BY TAU 72 AS IT MOVES OVER AN AREA WITH
INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190900Z AND 192100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160219 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 174.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 174.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.8S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.1S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.4S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.7S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.5S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.0S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.3S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 175.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE WITH A 15 NM EYE, SUPPORTING THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115
KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WINSTON
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS. TC WINSTON WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY BY TAU 72 AS IT MOVES OVER AN AREA WITH
INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z,
192100Z AND 200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160219 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 175.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 175.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.5S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.6S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.9S 178.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.2S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.8S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.0S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.0S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 176.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
190405Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING A
15 NM EYE, WITH CLOUD-TOP COOLING OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 6-HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM MULTIPLE
AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE SHARPLY SOUTHWARD, AS THE RIDGE RE-ORIENTS
POLEWARD AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TC 11P IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS VWS REMAINS WEAK,
SSTS REMAIN ABOVE 30C, AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FIJI AROUND TAU 36, WITH AN INTENSITY BETWEEN 130 AND 135
KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTIONS. AFTER TAU 72, TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS, AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160219 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 17.3S 177.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 177.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.4S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.5S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.8S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.0S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.9S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.6S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.6S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM
EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
190928Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE CONTINUE TO REVEAL A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL
SURROUNDING A 15 NM EYE, AND THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST 6-HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS
BASED UPON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS)
FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER
TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE SHARPLY SOUTHWARD, AS THE RIDGE RE-
ORIENTS POLEWARD AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TC 11P IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND SSTS REMAIN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FIJI
AROUND TAU 24, WITH AN INTENSITY BETWEEN 125 AND 130 KNOTS. AFTER
TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTIONS.
AFTER TAU 72, TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS
OVER COLDER SSTS, AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE
ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z,
200900Z AND 201500Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 027
WTPS31 PGTW 192100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 178.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 178.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.0S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.1S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.4S 175.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.7S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.9S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.4S 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.8S 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 179.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 028
WTPS31 PGTW 200300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 179.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 179.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.0S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.0S 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.3S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.8S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.6S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.5S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.0S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 179.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
=========================================================================
WARNING 029 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPS31 PGTW 201500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 177.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 177.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.3S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.4S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.8S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.7S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.4S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.7S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.0S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 176.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 031
WTPS31 PGTW 202100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 175.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 175.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.4S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.5S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.0S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.5S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.4S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.1S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 27.5S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 175.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 032
WTPS31 PGTW 210300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 174.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 174.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.5S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.8S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.9S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.5S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.5S 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.2S 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.5S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 174.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM WEST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
=========================================================================
WARNING 033 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPS31 PGTW 211500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 173.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 173.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.7S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.4S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.6S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.2S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.4S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.6S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 28.7S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 173.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM WEST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 035
WTPS31 PGTW 212100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 172.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 172.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.1S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.0S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.6S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.0S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.9S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 27.5S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.3S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 172.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM WEST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 036
WTPS31 PGTW 220300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 172.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 172.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.4S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.5S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.8S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.2S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.7S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.5S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 27.6S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 172.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM WEST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 037
WTPS31 PGTW 220900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 172.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 172.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.6S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.7S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.3S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.5S 174.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.0S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.3S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 28.9S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 172.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 348 NM WEST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 038
WTPS31 PGTW 221500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 172.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 172.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.2S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.6S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.2S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.5S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.7S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 28.3S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 172.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 348 NM WEST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160222 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 172.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 172.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.0S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.7S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 23.2S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.3S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUB-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 27.2S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUB-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 172.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED 20 NM EYE. A
221620Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SUGGESTS THE DEEP CORE CONVECTION IS
SUBSIDING, AND POSSIBLY BEING REPLACED BY A 60 NM RADIUS SECONDARY
EYEWALL FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED
UPON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0-4.5 (77 TO
90 KNOTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW TC WINSTON IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WEAK-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 11P IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU 36, SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL BUILD
AHEAD OF, AND TO THE SOUTH OF TC 11P, RESULTING IN A TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COLDER (25-28C) SSTS. WINSTON WILL
BECOME FULLY SUB-TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING
PATTERN, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160223 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 19.2S 173.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 173.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.7S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.3S 174.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.7S 174.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.0S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUB-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.9S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUB-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 173.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL, CLOUD-
FILLED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AGENCY
FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 222204Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LARGE (45 NM) EYE, AFTER RECENT
COMPLETION OF AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0-4.5 (77 TO 90 KNOTS) FROM MULTIPLE
AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW TC WINSTON IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK-MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 11P IS ACCELERATING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AFTER
TAU 36, SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL BUILD AHEAD OF, AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC WINSTON IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VWS AND COLDER (25-28C) SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME FULLY SUB-
TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z,
231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160223 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 19.8S 173.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 173.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.5S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 23.1S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.5S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.8S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.9S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 173.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY-DECAYING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 230453Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED, BROAD
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO REVEAL A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 11P
IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24.
AFTER TAU 24, TC 11P WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR TO THE
SOUTH. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24 AS IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS AND COOLER SST. NEAR TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW. BY TAU 72,
11P WILL TRANSITION FULLY INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW BUT IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160223 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 20.7S 173.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 173.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.7S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.6S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.8S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.6S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 26.7S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 173.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY-DECAYING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 231033Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
BROAD CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.0
(65 KNOTS) TO 4.5 (77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 11P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU
24, TC 11P WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR TO THE
SOUTH. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24 AS IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS AND COOLER SST. NEAR TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW. BY TAU 72,
11P WILL TRANSITION FULLY INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW BUT IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160223 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 174.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 174.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 23.3S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.9S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 26.3S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUB-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 27.4S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUB-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 174.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE CLOUD-TOP WARMING, AND A
DECAYING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 231607Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, HOWEVER
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED
ON LATEST SCATTEROMETRIC DATA AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SLIGHTLY DECREASED OUTFLOW. TC 11P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU
24, TC 11P WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR TO THE
SOUTH. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO HIGH VWS AND COLD SSTS. TC WINSTON WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL LOW, AND TRANSITION INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z,
241500Z AND 242100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160224 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 044//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 22.7S 174.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 174.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.1S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUB-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.6S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUB-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.8S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUB-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 174.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 232156Z GPM 36
GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD BUT DEFINED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONSTRAINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND ROUNDING UP TO ACCOUNT
FOR A 232125Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (40 TO 50 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 11P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 12 AND WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 24, AS THE STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITIONS TO A
BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTH. TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO HIGH VWS, DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COLD SSTS. TC WINSTON IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. TC 11P WILL TRANSITION INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 36, HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE WINSTON MAY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO THAT TIME. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160224 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 045//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 23.5S 174.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S 174.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.0S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 26.1S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.9S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 173.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 240439Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED BUT BROAD CENTER,
WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS), BASED ON
RECENT ASCAT DATA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
TC 11P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTH. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST. NEAR TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW.
BY TAU 36, 11P WILL TRANSITION FULLY INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160224 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 046//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 24.5S 173.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 173.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.8S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.8S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.2S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 173.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 241011Z METOP-A
89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED BUT
BROAD CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
RECENT ASCAT DATA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
TC 11P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTH. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST. NEAR TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW.
BY TAU 36, 11P WILL TRANSITION FULLY INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20160224 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 047//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 24.5S 173.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 173.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.8S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.8S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.2S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 173.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 241011Z METOP-A
89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED BUT
BROAD CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
RECENT ASCAT DATA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
TC 11P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTH. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST. NEAR TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW.
BY TAU 36, 11P WILL TRANSITION FULLY INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_winston_jtwc_advisories.htm
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