WTPS21 PGTW 20160224 07:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8S 157.6W TO 21.5S 150.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
240700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S
156.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
158.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 156.5W, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST
OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 240520Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250730Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20160225 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240721Z FEB 16//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z --- NEAR 18.5S 155.9W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 155.9W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 19.4S 155.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 20.1S 154.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 20.6S 153.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 21.3S 151.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 22.1S 150.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 155.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM
NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTION BANDING INTO A VERY
COMPACT CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241940Z
AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A MODERATELY WELL-DEFINED CENTER
WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, SUPPORTING
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
NEAR 29 CELSIUS. TC 14P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BY TAU 36 VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE
AS TC 14P INTERACTS WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS SHEAR
AND SST VALUES BECOME UNSUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINING THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20160225 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (YALO) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 154.9W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 154.9W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 21.1S 153.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 22.0S 152.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 22.8S 151.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 23.6S 150.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 154.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (YALO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL CENTRAL CONVECTION IS ALSO BEGINNING TO
BE OBSERVED WITH ASSOCIATED BROAD OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON
MULTIPLE FIXING AGENCIES REPORTING DVORAK ESTIMATES BETWEEN T3.0 AND
T3.5 (45 AND 55 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY). TC YALO IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHWARD AS IT RIDES ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. CONDITIONS CURRENTLY SUPPORT A SHORT-
TERM INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (27 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS PRESENT WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. HOWEVER, BY TAU 24 TO 36 TC YALO WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS ITS
SOUTHWARD TRACK MOVES IT OVER COOLER WATERS AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING VWS. TC YALO IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20160226 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (YALO) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 153.3W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 153.3W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 23.0S 152.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 24.3S 151.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 153.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (YALO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. CORE CONVECTION HAS BEEN WANING WITH NOTICEABLE
WARMING OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS, WHICH ARE OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AS A RESULT, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
AND T3.0 (35 AND 45 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY) FROM MULTIPLE FIXING
AGENCIES. TC YALO HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
WARNING, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (30-35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE THE SYSTEM. THERE ARE INITIAL
INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STARTING TO
BECOME EXPOSED DUE TO THIS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. TC YALO IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT RIDES ALONG
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS TC YALO MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SSTS AND INTO
AN AREA OF VERY HIGH (50 TO 60 KNOTS) VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. THESE EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20160226 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (YALO) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z --- NEAR 23.4S 150.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 150.7W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 24.8S 149.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 150.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (YALO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM SOUTH
OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS AS THE BULK OF CONVECTION IS NOW DECOUPLED FROM
THE SYSTEM REVEALING A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO REPORTING CURRENT INTENSITIES OF
T2.5 (35 KNOTS). CURRENTLY TC YALO IS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT (35
TO 40 KNOTS) VWS DUE TO AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE COOL (25 CELSIUS)
CONTRIBUTING TO THE RAPID WEAKENING. DUE TO THE DETERIORATING
ENVIRONMENT TC YALO WILL NO LONGER BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY
TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z
IS 15 FEET.

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_yalo_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]