Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone AVA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2017-2018 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone AVA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 020930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5S 55.2E TO 16.6S 52.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 54.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 59.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 54.7E APPROXIMATELY 345
NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 020310Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THAT 94S HAS CONSOLIDATED
CONSIDERABLY, WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A FULLY
CONCEALED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A
020508Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 20-30 KNOT WINDS ALSO
WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER THE LLCC IS STILL DISTINCTLY
ELONGATED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST WARM ENOUGH (26-27
CELSIUS) TO SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT
POTENTIAL VALUES REMAIN UNFAVORABLE. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
GENERALLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND A WELL DEFINED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. GLOBAL DYNAMIC
MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD
TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030930Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020921ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.6S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.3S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.9S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.4S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.9S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.6S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.2S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 021809Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28C TO 29C. TC
03S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. THE STR IS FORECAST TO RE-ORIENT AS AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 03S TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
NORTHEAST MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BUT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 48, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
RAPIDLY EVOLVING PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD TRACK
OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 120. TC 03S WILL DISSIPATE BY
TAU 120 BUT MAY REGENERATE AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW AFTER TAU 120 AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX, RAPIDLY
EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z
AND 032100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
020930).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 52.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 52.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.8S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.4S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.9S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.6S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.2S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.9S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.7S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 022324Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE EVIDENCES IMPROVED
CORE ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK,
DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE AT 28C TO 29C. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, TC 03S IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). CONSEQUENTLY, THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION
THROUGH TAU 12 UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD AND THE
STR RE-ORIENTS AND BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST, PROVIDING A
SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 36
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BUT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR
TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 48, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS RAPIDLY EVOLVING PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 120.
TC 03S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 BUT MAY REGENERATE AS A SUBTROPICAL
LOW AFTER TAU 120 AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
THE COMPLEX, RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.9S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.5S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.0S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.7S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.5S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.1S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 52.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND IT. THE POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 030614Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A
CLEARLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AND WINDS OF 40 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL ALLOW FOR TC 03S TO TRACK MORE
WESTWARD SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. THAT SAME STR WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TC
03S WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36. LANDFALL
WILL OCCUR OVER MADAGASCAR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC
03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AND WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.0S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.4S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.1S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.6S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.5S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.1S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND IT. THE POSITION IS BASED ON A
031031Z 89 GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THE LLCC. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 030614Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A CLEARLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AND WINDS OF
40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL ALLOW FOR TC 03S TO TRACK MORE
WESTWARD SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. THAT SAME STR WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. TC 03S WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
LANDFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MADAGASCAR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. AFTER TAU
48, TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD AND WILL
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 53.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 53.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.2S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.6S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.9S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.8S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.7S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 27.4S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE INFRARED
LOOP AND A 031748Z 89 GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
ABOVE MUTLI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND WEAKER POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND DOWN THE EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS
BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, LAND INTERACTION IN THE WESTERN-SEMI CIRCLE
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 03S. AROUND TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
A SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION MAINTAINING AN EXPANSIVE TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WIND FIELD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 24, AFTER WHICH THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS ARE HWRF AND GFS WITH SOLUTIONS
THAT HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER MADAGASCAR, WHILE THE NAVGEM
SOLUTION HAS THE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL OFF SHORE. DUE TO THE LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.7S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.2S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.6S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.5S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.1S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.2S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 032309Z 37GHZ
SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES, WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF MUTLI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.5 TO T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (27-28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE STR MOVES EASTWARD
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TAKING IT DOWN THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48, CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM WILL PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AROUND 65 KNOT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96.
AFTER TAU 96, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH WIND FIELD AS IT TRANSITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24 THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS
BEING HWRF TRACKING OVER MADAGASCAR, AND NAVGEM, WITH A SOLUTION HAS
THE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL OFF SHORE. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.1S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.6S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.3S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.3S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.2S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.1S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.0S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS COVERED
BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 040244Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND
BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW
AND KNES, WHILE FMEE IS FIXING AT T3.5 (55 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, FUELING DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE
STR MOVES EASTWARD THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TAKING IT DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS
BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM WILL PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AROUND 70 KNOTS INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TC 03S. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND TAU 120 HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT WILL ALSO BRING COLD
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNFAVORABLE
FOR SUSTAINING INTENSITIES OVER 64 KTS PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND EQUATORWARD ENOUGH TO CARRY
03S EASTWARD IS UNCERTAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTERWARD, SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SPREAD
SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION RELATED TO THE COMPLEX
TROUGH AND SHIFTING RIDGE INTERACTION. NOTABLE MODEL OUTLIERS ARE
THE NAVGEM AND JGSM SOLUTIONS SHOWING A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
SOUTHWARD TURN OCCURRING SOONER AND FURTHER EAST AS A RESULT OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXERTING MORE INFLUENCE OVER STEERING. DUE TO
THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND
050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 51.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 51.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.6S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.1S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.1S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.4S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.0S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.9S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.4S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS COVERED BY A FLARING CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH AN INFLOW NOTCH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 041142Z 89GHZ
SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC AND LOW LEVEL CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, FUELING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 24, BEING BLOCKED BY A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24, AS THE STR MOVES
EASTWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TAKING IT DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS
BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
WESTERN HALF OF TC 03S AND MADAGASCAR WILL PREVENT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN SLIGHTLY MORE
SEPARATION FROM LAND AND BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AROUND 65 KNOTS
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TC 03S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND TAU 120 HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT WILL ALSO BRING COLD
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNFAVORABLE
FOR SUSTAINING INTENSITIES OVER 60 KTS PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AT LATER TAUS, THE STR WILL BUILD BACK WESTWARD, SHIFTING
THE TRACK SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE
PASSING TROUGH WILL REACH SUFFICIENTLY EQUATORWARD ENOUGH TO BREAK
THE BUILDING RIDGE MAKING THE EXTENDED TRACK BEYOND TAU 120
UNCERTAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72. AFTERWARD, SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY
IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION RELATED TO THE COMPLEX TROUGH AND
SHIFTING RIDGE INTERACTION. NOTABLE MODEL OUTLIERS ARE THE NAVGEM
AND JGSM SOLUTIONS SHOWING A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWARD TURN
OCCURRING SOONER AND FURTHER EAST AS A RESULT OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE EXERTING MORE INFLUENCE OVER STEERING. NAVGEM AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE AT LATER TAUS EXHIBIT A DRAMATIC TURN TO THE WEST, OVERLAND
MADAGASCAR, DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING STR TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 51.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 51.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.6S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.3S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.6S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.4S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.2S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.2S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 50.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 041519Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTESITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES
RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BOTH A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 03S IS INITIALLY FORECASTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 24, THE
STR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD, ALLOWING TC AVA TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR, TRACKING DOWN THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
TAU 72 WHEN THE STR, NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST, WILL BUILD BACK
WESTWARD CAUSING TC 03S TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU
12, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH LAND, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FARTHER OFFSHORE WHERE MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS THROUGH TAU
96. AFTER TAU 96, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AROUND TAU
120, A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
24. AFTERWARD, SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH SPEED
AND DIRECTION RELATED TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE MODIFICATIONS. THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS ARE NAVGEM AND JGSM WITH
SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST A SHARP TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO TAU 12 AND A
TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER FROM THE MADAGASCAR COAST. DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z,
051500Z AND 052100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 50.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 50.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.7S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.7S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.1S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.7S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.7S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.1S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.6S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 50.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 042256Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY, THE COLOR ENHANCEMENT OF THE SAME MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A CYAN COLORED RING CIRCLING THE LLCC INDICATING THAT
THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 69 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET
BY LAND INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 03S IS INITIALLY FORECASTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 12, TURNING TO THE SOUTH BY TAU 36, ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND DOWN THE
EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR MAKING A BRIEF LANDFALL AROUND TAU 24.
TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 12
AS A RESULT OF ON GOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 12,
PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BRIEFLY
INTENSIFY BEFORE BEGINNING A FINAL GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. AROUND
TAU 96, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE WEAKENING TREND AS WELL AS START THE
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. AROUND TAU 120, A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
THAT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK DIRECTION; HOWEVER HAS A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD AS TO TRACK LOCATION FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z,
052100Z AND 060300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 50.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 50.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.7S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.8S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.4S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.8S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.7S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.9S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.7S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 49.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 15NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING
OF DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF
MADAGASCAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED
ON THE NEWLY FORMED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 95 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T 5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPED POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM FEEDING INTO
AN ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT
CONSTRAINED BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT DUE TO A WELL
ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH NOW REORIENTING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF TC 03S. THE STR WAS PREVIOUSLY STEERING 03S ON
COURSE DUE WEST, BUT WITH THE RECENT SHIFT EASTWARD TC 03S IS NOW
TAKING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STR
MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TC
03S TO A SOUTHWARD COURSE BY TAU 36. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY VERY
FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS BUT DROP RAPIDLY BELOW 25 DEGREES SOUTH.
TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN
MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAINING FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WILL MITIGATE
SIGNIFICANT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND PROMOTE A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND
BEYOND TAU 12. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP TC 03S SUSTAINED
AT AROUND 80 KNOTS FROM TAU 36 TO 72. BEYOND TAU 72 COOLER WATERS
WILL HELP FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWEST, BUT
SIMULTANEOUSLY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AROUND TAU 92 TC 03S WILL BEGIN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN DISSIPATING. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST POSITION AND THE
COASTLINE. BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST TRACK ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND TAU 120 WITH
NAVGEM AND NOW ECMWF SHOWING THE SOUTHERN STR BUILDING BACK
SUFFICIENTLY TO SHIFT TC 03S' TRACK TO THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE
EASTWARD TURN MOST OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING. DUE TO THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS
27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 49.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 49.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.0S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.4S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.9S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.5S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.5S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.2S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.9S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 10NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED AND
NOW OVER LAND NEAR TAMATAVE, MADAGASCAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EVIDENT EYE FEATURE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS WHICH IS
BASED ON PREVIOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO
102 KNOTS) TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RECENT LAND INTERACTION. OBSERVATIONS
FROM NEARBY TAMATAVE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 83 KNOTS WHEN CORRECTED FOR ONE MINUTE AVERAGE, AND A
MINIMUM STATION PRESSURE OF 965 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DEVELOPED POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM FEEDING INTO A ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT
CONSTRAINED BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT DUE TO A WELL
ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH NOW REORIENTING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF TC 03S. THE STR WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY EAST AND STEER TC 03S SOUTHWARD. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR REEMERGING OVER OPEN
WATER AROUND TAU 24. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY TO 65 KNOTS, AND WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE THIS INTENSITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS TC 03S TRACKS
POLEWARD OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN. BEYOND TAU 72 TC 03S WILL ENTER A
REGION OF COOLER WATERS, BUT SIMULTANEOUSLY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AROUND TAU 92 TC 03S WILL
BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN
DISSIPATING. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48 WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE
FORECAST POSITION AND THE COASTLINE. BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK ESPECIALLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND TAU 120 WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF SHOWING A
POSSIBILITY OF THE SOUTHERN STR BUILDING BACK SUFFICIENTLY TO SHIFT
TC 03S TRACK TO THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE EASTWARD TURN MOST OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING. DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.9S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.5S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.8S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.4S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 26.6S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.2S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 48.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 374 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, THOUGH A CORE OF
DEEP CONVECTION IS PERSISTING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO
THE LOSS OF THE EYE FEATURE, AND IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTI-AGENCY FIX POSITIONS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS WHICH, DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OVER LAND, IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON THE
OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM, AND THE KNAFF-ZEHR WIND-PRESSURE
RELATIONSHIP BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATION DATA IN THE REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A STRONG
POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND
MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 03S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP,
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC
03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF
MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND
REEMERGE OVER OPEN WATER AROUND TAU 24. BY TAU 72 THE SOUTHERN LOCUS
OF THE STR STRENGTHENS AND EXTENDS WESTWARD, PUSHING TC 03S TOWARD A
MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. BEYOND TAU 96, AN APPROACHING DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TC AVA
TO A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. AS TC 03S TRACKS OVER THE COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS
BEFORE REEMERGENCE OVER WATER. ONCE BACK OVER WATER, THE SYSTEM WILL
RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATERS AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. BEYOND TAU 72 TC 03S WILL ENTER A
REGION OF COOLER WATERS AND WHILE THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), LEADING TO A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ECMWF KEEPING THE
SYSTEM OVER LAND THROUGH TAU 120, WHILE JGSM IS THE EASTERNMOST
OUTLIER. BEYOND TAU 48, THE MODELS ARE SPLIT IN A BIFURCATION
SCENARIO. ECMWF, NAVGEM AND HWRF INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE
PULLED POLEWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LEADING
TO A WESTWARD TRACK OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE AVNO, EGRR, AND
COAMPS MODELS INDICATE A TRACK SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE
JTWC TRACK LIES ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND
THEREAFTER IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK. DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z,
061500Z AND 062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 19.1S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.2S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.5S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.8S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.1S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.4S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.9S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 28.7S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 48.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM WEST
OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS TC 03S
TRACKS OVER THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, A 060014Z AMSU-B
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). CONSEQUENTLY, TC 03S IS FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN
AFTER TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER WATER. TC 03S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 72. PROXIMITY TO MADAGASCAR
SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 03S
WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT STEERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS. TC 03S WILL
LIKELY SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR TAU 120 AS LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING FURTHER
POLEWARD MOVEMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUIDANCE DOES HOWEVER DIVERGE AFTER TAU 120 WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES
IN THE EQUATORWARD MOTION AND TRACK SPEEDS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 47.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 47.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.2S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.5S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.7S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.9S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.0S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 47.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 060530Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
LAND INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH TAU 24. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, TC 03S WILL MOVE BACK OVER
WATER AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY. TC 03S WILL REACH AN
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 TC 03S
WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH
TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, IS GENERALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND
070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 47.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 47.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.9S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.2S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.3S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.3S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.4S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.6S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 28.4S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 47.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 389 NM EAST
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 061200Z METEOSAT-8 SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 24. TC 03S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE
EAST. BY TAU 36, TC 03S WILL MOVE BACK OVER WATER AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY. TC 03S WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. HOWEVER, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 TC 03S WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 03S
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS
POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
TURN TC 03S EASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM, IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z,
070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 21.2S 48.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 48.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.0S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.4S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.6S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.6S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.4S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.3S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.8S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 48.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 406 NM WEST OF
ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC AVA HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK OVER LAND BUT
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE COAST. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING RE-DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLES. A 061825Z METOP-A 89GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THEREFORE, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). CONSEQUENTLY, TC 03S IS FORECAST
TO RE-STRENGTHEN AFTER TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER WATER. TC 03S
WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48.
PROXIMITY TO MADAGASCAR SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, TC 03S
SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 03S WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS. TC 03S WILL LIKELY SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AFTER TAU 96 AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR
AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 72 WITH A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 22.4S 48.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 48.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.4S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.6S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.8S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.7S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.6S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 28.5S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 48.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC AVA IS NOW STRADDLING THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 070003Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
CONSEQUENTLY, TC 03S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12
AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OVER WATER. TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. PROXIMITY TO MADAGASCAR
SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TC 03S WILL
TURN SHARPLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER
COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. TC
03S WILL LIKELY SLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING FURTHER POLEWARD
MOVEMENT. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN, DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 72 WITH A VERY
LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 22.7S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.8S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.9S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.0S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.1S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.1S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.9S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 49.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED, WEAK CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 070600Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS THE RAGGED STRUCTURE OF TC 03S. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) RANGING FROM 10 TO 15
KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). TC 03S WILL TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. TC 03S WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TC
03S WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS IT STEERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. TC 03S WILL LIKELY SLOW AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR
AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 72 WITH A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 23.4S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.5S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.7S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.7S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.2S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 30.3S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.6S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION REMAINS WEAK BUT HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC
03S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 071200Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE RAGGED STRUCTURE OF TC 03S.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 070634Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS.
TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48.
TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU
36. BEGINNING AT TAU 48, TC 03S WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AS IT BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL. TC
03S WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48 WITH A VERY
LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 24.0S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.7S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.2S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.9S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 33.6S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 49.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071859Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 071859Z ASCAT
BULLS-EYE IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40
KNOTS, HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 1.0 (25 KNOTS), BASED ON
THE ASCAT DATA AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TC 03S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 36. PROXIMITY TO MADAGASCAR
SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 03S
WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER TAU
36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER
SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS. HOWEVER, TC 03S IS NOW FORECAST
TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 24.7S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.0S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.4S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.3S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.3S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.6S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 48.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 072352Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATE FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY-
DEFINED CENTER. DESPITE THE WEAK CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON A 071859Z
ASCAT BULLSEYE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35
KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 35
TO 40 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 36. PROXIMITY TO
MADAGASCAR SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY
GRADUALLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 36,
TC 03S WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER
SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS. TC 03S IS NOW FORECAST TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 49.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 49.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.7S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.3S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 32.9S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 38.8S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 49.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 080426Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. BASED ON IMPROVING
CONVECTION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE A 080614Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC AND A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 03S WILL
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY
TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 26.8S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 28.3S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 32.5S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 35.6S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 41.9S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
340 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 48.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 081200Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A 081222Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS
AND A KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES, WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 03S WILL
MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 36 AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 03S
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY.
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 27.3S 46.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 46.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.7S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 33.7S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 37.3S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 46.2S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 490 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
450 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 46.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAK FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 081200Z METEOSAT-8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTING THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS)
AND BELOW A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BEING OFFSET BY
COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW HOWEVER, THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. TC 03S WILL
INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. PRIOR TO TAU 12,
THE TRACK WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WTIH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTH THROUGH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN FAIR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, THE
INITIAL TRACK DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WAS NOT PREDICTED IN THE
MODEL SOLUTION. DUE TO THE INACCURATE PREDICTION OF THE SYSTEMS
INITIAL DIRECTION THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 27.0S 47.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 123 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 47.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.8S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.3S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 34.9S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 39.4S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 47.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC IN ANIMATED IR IMAGERY AND A 082241Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE REMAINING
CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LOCATED IN THE SOUTH EASTERN QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A
081838Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE THAT MISSED THE LLCC BUT CAPTURED AN
EXPANSIVE 30 TO 35 KNOT WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
VALUES ARE OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLY COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A WEAK BUT DEFINED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. TC 03S HAS LOOPED TO THE NORTH, AROUND ON ITS OWN TRACK
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CAUSE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
03S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36
AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 28.2S 47.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 47.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.0S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 47.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TWO
CYCLONIC MESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND ONE ANOTHER, AND MINIMAL
REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TWO CIRCULATIONS
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090322Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE ALSO SHOWING AN AMBIGUOUS LLCC WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION
PRIMARILY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND ALL OTHER DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE BOTH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KTS), BUT BELOW A 090413Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KTS. A 090554Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN
EXPANSIVE 25 KT WIND FIELD, WITH SEVERAL 30 KT WIND BARBS ABOUT 160
NM FROM THE CENTER POSITION, AT THE INBOARD EDGE OF THE PASS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
VALUES ARE OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLY COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS POLEWARD. TC 03S HAS TRACKED TO THE SOUTH, AND COMPLETED A
SMALL LOOP OVER ITS TRACK IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. DUE TO THE
DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 03S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE
BY TAU 12. BEYOND TAU 12, A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND THE REMNANTS OF TC 03S WILL INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED WINDS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_ava_jtwc_advisories.htm
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