Updated: 17 June 2020
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WTXS21 PGTW 011430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
065 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8S 55.6E TO 15.2S 54.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3S 55.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.0S 55.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY
470 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 011229Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING
REGION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) COVERED BY FLARING CONVECTION. STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN THE VICINITY OF 94S ARE SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. 94S IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND CONDUCIVE SSTS (ABOUT 29 CELSIUS). LOW VWS AND FAVORABLE SSTS
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
94S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021430Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 020930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011457Z MAR 18//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 011430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8S 54.3E TO 16.3S 51.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S 54.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3S
54.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 54.0E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH
OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP
FLARING CONVECTION COVERING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE DISJOINTED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
AS THE LLCC HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A 020516Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN OVULAR LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) PREDOMINANTLY SURROUNDED BY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS,
WITH SEVERAL 30 KNOT BARBS ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE SITS
OVER THE TOP OF 94S, CAUSING STRONG DIVERGENCE AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONDUCIVE SSTS (ABOUT
29 CELSIUS) WHICH SUPPORT DEVELOPEMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT 94S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS; HOWEVER, THE MODEL POSITION
SPREAD REMAINS LARGE (140 NM) AT TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030930Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020921ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.5S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.8S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.3S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.2S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.7S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.8S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.7S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
355 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 54.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
NORTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION WHICH HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND IS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE
IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY A 021216Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED TO THE HIGH SIDE OF
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5
(30 TO 35 KNOTS), DUE TO RAPID CONSOLIDATION OBSERVED IN THE PAST 6
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE OVER THE TOP OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER PROVIDING FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, WITH
THE GREATEST DIVERGENCE OVER THE EQUATORWARD SEMI-CIRCLE WHERE THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. SSTS ARE VERY FAVORABLE (ABOUT 29
CELSIUS) AS WELL. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BY 55
KNOTS IN 48 HOURS DUE TO THESE SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS. AS TC 11S
DEVELOPS, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO TIGHTER
AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INITIAL POSITION,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES
REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 020930).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 12.8S 54.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 54.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.8S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.9S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.7S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.1S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.1S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
405 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
295 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
NORTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION AND BROAD, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A
02/1747Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC. A PARTIAL
02/1748Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SUGGESTS AN ELONGATED, DEVELOPING
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED
ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). TC 11S HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
48 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU
48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL POSITION AND THE RECENT QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. DUE TO
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72, TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12 AND SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS
AT TAU 72 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY VWS AND COOLER
SST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.6S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.2S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.0S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.7S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.1S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.7S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.4S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 390 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
465 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
275 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 54.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 389 NM
NORTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT CORE CONVECTION AND BROAD, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
A 02/2252Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC PROVIDING
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
TC 11S HAS ACCELERATED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DUE TO
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER
TAU 12 TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS AT TAU 72 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW AND LOW
VWS. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY VWS AND COOLER SST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.3S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.9S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.7S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.6S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.5S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.4S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
380 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.6S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 390 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
275 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION, LOCATED TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS STARTING TO
WRAP INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 030552Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE AND DEEPER CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF TC 11S. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FAVORABLE (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND THERE IS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, RANGING
FROM 30 TO 31 DEGREE CELSIUS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL
ALLOW FOR TC 11S TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AND
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72. TC 11S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, TC 11S WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND THEN BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET AIDES WHICH FAVOR A
WIDER TURN AROUND THE STR, TRACKING CLOSER TO MADAGASCAR AND JGSM
WHICH FAVORS A SHARPER TURN, TRACKING CLOSER TO LA REUNION.
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 52.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 52.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.4S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.2S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 22.0S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 25.4S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.2S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 31.4S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 395 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 52.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO
FULLY ENCOMPASS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 11S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 031203Z SSMIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS IMPROVING BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND
THERE IS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR TC 11S TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 85
KNOTS BY TAU 36 AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
TC 11S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, TC 11S WILL
BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR A TRACK FARTHER
TO THE EAST. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.6S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.3S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.1S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.9S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.1S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 315 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.1S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
395 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 33.1S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 380 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
275 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 51.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION THAT IS FULLY
ENCOMPASSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 031706Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE WHICH SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS SLIGHTHLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45
KNOTS) TO ACCOUNT FOR IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE EIR LOOP. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS ALSO FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW TC 11S TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 48. BY TAU 72, RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE
TO STRONG WESTERLY VWS AND COOLER SST. TC 11S WILL TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, TC 11S WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
JGSM WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR A TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 51.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 51.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.2S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.9S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.7S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.4S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 305 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.5S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
355 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.8S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
400 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 33.8S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 425 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
265 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 51.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A LARGE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE PRESENCE
OF THE CDO FEATURE, THERE IS MARGINAL CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW AND SST VALUES NEAR 30C. THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR IS SOME INTERACTION WITH LAND AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER, THE PEAK
INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED TO 110 KNOTS AT TAU 36 TO TAU 48. AFTER
TAU 72, RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING VWS AND OVER COOLER SST (23-25C). TC
11S WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE EAST. AFTER TAU 36, TC DUMAZILE WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS
AND WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 51.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 51.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.3S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.1S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.8S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.4S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.5S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
410 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.7S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 410 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
415 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
285 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 36.0S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 495 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
470 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 51.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WHICH CONTINUES TO WRAP
INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 040306Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 040616Z METOP-A
ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS) FROM FMEE AND PGTW AND T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT,
NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL
ALLOW TC 11S TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND REACH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 72, RAPID WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 11S WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, TC 11S WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
JGSM WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR A TRACK CLOSER TO LA REUNION. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 50.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 50.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.1S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.8S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.4S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.9S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.0S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
410 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 32.0S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 410 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
415 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
285 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.0S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 495 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
470 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 50.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WHICH CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 11S. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 041111Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS THAT TC 11S IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP A MICROWAVE EYE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) PGTW, T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM
FMEE, AND T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND
THERE IS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW TC 11S TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 24. BY TAU 72, RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE
TO STRONG WESTERLY VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 11S
WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
BY TAU 12, TC 11S WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR
AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
JGSM WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR A TRACK CLOSER TO LA REUNION. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 50.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 50.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.9S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.6S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.1S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 315 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.7S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.0S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 315 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 33.5S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 395 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
275 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 50.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WHICH CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
041802Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SST, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING DISTANCE FROM MADAGASCAR
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUING DEVELOPMENT TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU
24. AFTER TAU 36, TC 11S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AS IT
NEARS THE SUBTROPICAL JET. AFTER TAU 48, TC 11S WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
FROM HIGH VWS, COOLING SST, AND POOR OUTFLOW. TC 11S HAS BEGUN ITS
SOUTHWARD TURN AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 51.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 51.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.7S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.3S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.8S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.5S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 30.1S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 315 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 34.5S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 435 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
400 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242 NM
WEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN
EYE IN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN
THE 050043Z SSMIS COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.0 (90 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WARM SST, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT TO
CONTINUE UNTIL TAU 24 WHEN INTENSITY WILL PEAK AT 105 KNOTS. AFTER
TAU 36, TC 11S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WESTERLY VWS INCREASES. AFTER
TAU 48, TC 11S WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO HIGH VWS, COOLING SST, AND
POOR OUTFLOW. TC 11S WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
UNTIL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 36
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 51.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 51.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.6S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.1S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.5S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.0S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.6S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 315 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 36.1S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 435 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
400 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 51.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226 NM
WEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 11S HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 050531Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS
THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN PRESENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 11S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST. TC 11S WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY
TAU 12. AS TC 11S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL TRACK
OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECREASE IN
INTENSITY. BY TAU 72, TC 11S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 WITH WINDS OF 50
KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z,
052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 22.1S 51.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 51.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.8S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 25.3S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.0S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.7S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 365 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 32.8S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
415 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 52.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 11S STILL HAS A RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND IT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
051026Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS A MICROWAVE
EYE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND FMEE AND T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW ALONG WITH
A 051012Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 111 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS STARTED TO INCREASE (10 TO 20 KNOTS).
HOWEVER, TC 11S STILL HAS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE,
NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 11S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IT TRAVELS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS TC 11S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL TRACK OVER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BY TAU 48,
TC 11S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 WITH WINDS OF 55 KNOTS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND
061500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 22.9S 52.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 52.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.4S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.8S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.4S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.5S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 365 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 32.9S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
415 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 11S STILL HAS A WIDENING RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A
051823Z 89GHZ METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN EYE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PGTW CURRENT
INTENSITY OF T6.0 (115 KTS) AND THE KNES CURRENT INTENSITY OF T5.5
(102 KTS), AND ABOVE A 051608Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 95KTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS STARTED TO INCREASE (10
TO 20 KNOTS). HOWEVER, TC 11S STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TC 11S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
IT TRAVELS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS TC 11S CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL TRACK OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BY TAU 48, TC 11S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 WITH
WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 55 KNOTS AND AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z
IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 23.3S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 52.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.9S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.6S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.3S 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
355 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.6S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
430 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 35.1S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 425 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
395 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
265 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 11S HAS LOST ITS EYE. A 060031Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE STILL SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, ALTHOUGH THE 91GHZ BAND
DOES NOT REVEAL AN EYE AND SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED
PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS HEDGED AT APPROXIMATELY THE PGTW 00Z
CURRENT INTENSITY OF T5.5 (102 KTS), YET ABOVE THE KNES CURRENT
INTENSITY OF T4.5 (77 KTS). MULTIAGENCY DVORAK FIXES HAVE BEEN
DEMONSTRATING A WEAKENING TREND IN THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF
11S IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS STARTED TO INCREASE (15-20 KNOTS). HOWEVER, TC 11S
STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS
SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 11S WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IT TRAVELS ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS TC 11S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL
TRACK OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BY
TAU 36, TC 11S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 60 WITH WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 55
KNOTS AND AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 24.2S 53.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 53.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.7S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.5S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
405 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.1S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.9S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
425 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.1S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 54.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A 10-NM EYE THAT HAS BECOME
CLOUD-FILLED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE FEEDER BANDS REMAIN TIGHTLY
WRAPPED INTO THE LLCC BUT HAVE BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND ASYMMETRIC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM OF THE MSI EYE TO
ACCOUNT FOR TILT AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
0241Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 11S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE
NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VWS. HOWEVER,
A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE
CONVECTION. ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE, FOR NOW, CONDUCIVE AT 28C. AS
DUMAZILE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND SSTS TO COOL RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID WEAKENING. ADDITIONALLY,
THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN ETT BY TAU 36 AND BY TAU 72 WILL TRANSITION
INTO A 40-KNOT COLD-CORE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND
FIELD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 25.0S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 54.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.8S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.3S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
405 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 30.0S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 32.3S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
425 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 39.7S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 55.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM SOUTH
OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
ASYMMETRIC WITH WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE EYE
FEATURE HAS BECOME TOTALLY CLOUD-FILLED. IN VIEW OF THIS, THE INITIAL
POSITION HAS BEEN MORE DIFFICULT TO POSITION, AIDED ONLY BY A LOW
RESOLUTION 060955Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO
REFLECT AN LLC THAT REMAINS TIGHT DESPITE THE WEAKENING CONVECTION.TC
11S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR
TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VWS.
HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION TO
THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE, FOR NOW, CONDUCIVE AT
28C. AS DUMAZILE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND SSTS TO COOL RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID WEAKENING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN ETT BY TAU 36 AND BY TAU 72 WILL
TRANSITION INTO A 40-KNOT COLD-CORE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH AN
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 25.0S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 54.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.8S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.3S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
405 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 30.0S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 32.3S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
425 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 39.7S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 55.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM SOUTH
OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
11S CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY ERODE AND LOSE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. A 061800Z 89GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL RELATIVELY INTACT, BUT HAS
BEGUN TO TRAIL THE UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, INDICATIVE OF
INCREASING SHEAR. DEEP CONVECTIOIN IS CONCENTRATED
PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND COINCIDENT DVORAK FIXES FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. TC 11S
IS UNDERGOING RAPID DECAY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 70 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER TOWARDS THE KNES INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.1 (51
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT VWS IS INCREASING AT A
RAPID PACE WITH AN ESTIMATED 25-30 KNOTS OF VWS PRESENT OVER THE
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, THOUGH THE STORM MOTION IS IN PHASE WITH THE
SHEAR VECTOR, SO RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER, IN THE 15-
20 KNOTS RANGE. THE MODERATE SHEAR VALUES HOWEVER ARE BEING OFFSET
BY THE VERY STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL, WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. SSTS ARE STILL FAVORABLE AT
NEAR 28 DEG CELSIUS, BUT ARE CONTINUING TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS POLEWARD. TC 11S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AS IT TRAVELS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS TC 11S CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL TRACK OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND
ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS WHILE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSTION, BEGINNING BY TAU 36 AND REACHING COMPLETION BY TAU 72. AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO, DEPENDENT UPON THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM-
RELATIVE SHEAR VALUE, IS THAT TC 11S DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 26.6S 55.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 55.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.6S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 30.3S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 32.6S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
380 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 36.3S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 55.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM SOUTH
OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A RAPIDLY DETERORIATING SYSTEM, WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 062205Z AMSR2 89 COLOR ADJUSTED
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LLCC REMAINS INTACT AND WELL
ORGANIZED BUT IS DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION, INDICATIVE OF
HIGH VWS. WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON POSITION FIXES FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES ALONG
WITH THE EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC
11S LIES UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH (35-40 KNOTS) VWS. EVEN TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT STORM MOTION ALIGNMENT WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR, THE RELATIVE
SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) AND WILL NOT SUSTAIN
THE BAROTROPIC STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. SSTS REMAIN MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE AT 27 DEG CESISUS BUT TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26
DEG ISOTHERM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE TC 11S IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
BECOMING INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC, IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE COMPLETING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 27.1S 55.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.1S 55.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.5S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.1S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 32.9S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 56.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM SOUTH
OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC THAT
HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE WEAKENING CONVECTION IS SHEARED
SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOW END OF
MULTI-AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE RAPID
DECAY OF THE SYSTEM. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE BY TAU
36 MOSTLY DUE TO STRONG VWS AND COOLING SSTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 27.9S 56.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 56.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.4S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 31.4S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 28.3S 56.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 447 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
AND FULLY EXPOSED LLCC AS THE WEAKENED CONVECTION IS GREATLY SHEARED
SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOW END OF
MULTI-AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE RAPID
DECAY OF THE SYSTEM. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE BY TAU
36, POSSIBLY SOONER, MOSTLY DUE TO STRONG VWS AND COOLING SSTS.
CONCURRENTLY, IT WILL UNDERGO ETT, FURTHER EXPANDING THE ALREADY
LARGE WIND FIELD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 28.3S 56.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3S 56.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.8S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 28.7S 57.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DUMAZILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 071837Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS
BASED ON A 071741Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A LARGE SWATH OF 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 11S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS INDICATED IN THE
1000-500MB THICKNESS CHARTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING STORM
FORCE WINDS THROUGH TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS
18 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_dumazile_jtwc_advisories.htm
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