Updated: 17 June 2020
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[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ELIAKIM : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2017-2018 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S 56.2E TO 15.1S 52.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 55.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
56.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 140024Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A COHESIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) FROM ALL SIDES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) OVER
99S WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF MADAGASCAR. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 99S REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (34
KTS) IN 12-24 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF JGSM AND ECMWF
DEVELOPING IT MUCH LATER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD NEAR TERM AGREEMENT AS
99S TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140251ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 55.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 55.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.9S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.4S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.7S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.3S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.1S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.0S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 54.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WHICH HAS CONSOLIDATED
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IS WRAPPING INTO
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 142303Z SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH AND
INTO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO
35 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT TO THE EAST AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 60
KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF
LAND INTERACTION. ALSO AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE
AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND TURN
TO THE SOUTHWEST, EXITING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. ONCE OUT OVER WATER, TC 14S WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TRACK DIRECTION WITH LARGE VARIATIONS IN THE
TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE LARGE
VARIATIONS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 140300).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 53.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.6S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.8S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.9S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.4S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.5S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.5S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.7S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 53.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 368 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM A 150227Z CORIOLIS PASS
AND A 150546Z METOP-A PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE, 35-40 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION IN 150546Z ASCAT DATA, AND MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 2.0 (30 KNOTS) TO 3.0
(45 KNOTS). TC 14S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM, TAKING THE SYSTEM TOWARD LANDFALL IN NORTHERN MADAGASCAR.
STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM AS THE
STEERING PATTERN REORIENTS. AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CARRY THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD, AND
AWAY FROM MADAGASCAR, AFTER TAU 72. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TC 14S MOVES OVER VERY WARM
WATER AND BENEFITS FROM STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND, BUT
SOME REINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVER
WATER IN THE EXTENDED (96 TO 120 HOUR) FORECAST. TC 14S WILL
ENCOUNTER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
FLOW PATTERN BY TAU 120, INDUCING THE FIRST PHASE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO, INCLUDING EXPECTED LANDFALL IN
MADAGASCAR, SLOW FORWARD MOTION IN THE MEDIUM-TERM AND AN EVENTUAL
POLEWARD TURN. HOWEVER, THERE IS MARKED DIVERGENCE IN THE TIMELINE
OF THE POLEWARD TURN AND FORWARD SPEED AFTER THE TURN. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED REORIENTATION
OF THE STEERING PATTERN. GIVEN THE NOTED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LATER TAUS CONSISTENT WITH A
SHIFT IN THE CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z,
160300Z AND 160900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.2S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.6S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.9S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.4S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.1S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.2S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.9S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 27.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 52.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST. DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS BROAD CONVECTIVE
BANDS THAT HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT, RAGGED
LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LCC FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP
AND IN THE 151029Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
SATCON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.2 AND REFLECTS THE
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TC 14S IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS AT 28C ARE CONDUCIVE.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO
THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE EAST COAST OF
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR BY TAU 24 BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
STR RECEDES AND THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO 60 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGE OF MADAGASCAR
WILL ERODE THE CYCLONE TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 72 BEFORE MAKING AN EXIT
BACK INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. DESPITE INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SSTS, TC ELIAKIM IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES PROVIDE
VENTILATION TO THE REMNANT CONVECTION. BY TAU 120, TC 14S WILL ALSO
BEGIN ETT AS A 40-KNOT SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR- TO
MID-TERM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72, THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS GREATLY DIFFER
IN TRACK SPEEDS, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TC ELIAKIM WILL
DISSIPATE OVER INLAND MADAGASCAR DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND
INCREASING VWS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 51.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 51.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.1S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.5S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.1S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.8S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.8S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.8S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 29.0S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 51.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING WEAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC FEATURE IN THE INFRARED LOOP AND A
151735Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL DEFINED CENTRALLY
LOCATED LOW REFLECTIITY AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED ON THE
UPPER END OF MULTI-AGNECY DVORAK CURRENT INTENISTY ESTIMATES OF T3.0
(45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. THE INITIAL INTENISTY IS
SUPPORTED BY A 151735Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WITH 45 KNOT WIND BARBS
(45-49 KNOTS) IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS TC ELIAKIM HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, EVEN THE OUTFLOW
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE AND JOINS THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20 KT) VWS AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. ONCE OVER LAND THE
SYSTEM WILL RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE STR RECEDES AND THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST PRIOR TO LANDFALL,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS. AFTERWARD,
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGE OF MADAGASCAR WILL WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT
BACK INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY. BY TAU 120,
TC 14S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS A 40 KNOT SYSTEM WITH
AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. A POSSIBLE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD MORE RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS OVER MADAGASCAR AND
EXIT INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT
DOES NOT INTENSIFY TO THE WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 KNOTS. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, AFTERWHICH THE
MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS THE ALONG TRACK SPEED. THE LARGE
VARIATIONS IN CONSENSUS MEMBERS LEND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 51.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 51.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.3S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.8S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.4S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.7S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.6S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 31.0S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 50.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED AND CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC
FEATURE IN THE INFRARED LOOP AND A 152359Z 37GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLES WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A CENTRAL LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE MULTI-AGNECY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, BASED ON THE
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS THE STORM REACHES DIURNAL
MAXIMUM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 56 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC ELIAKIM HAS
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND FORMATIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-
10 KT) VWS AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR PRIOR TO TAU 12 AND THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND.
DESPITE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, LAND INTERACTION WILL PREVENT
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE. INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU
60, THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT BACK INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AND
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AROUND TAU
96, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO PREVENT EXTENSIVE
INTENSIFICATION AND INTERACTION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 120, TC
14S WILL BE A 45 KNOT SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. A
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD MORE RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS OVER MADAGASCAR AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH
INDIAN OCEAN AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT DOES NOT INTENSIFY
TO THE WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 KNOTS, THOUGH RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE THE SYSTEM SPENDING LESS TIME OVER LAND MAKING THIS SOLUTION
LESS LIKELY. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME MODELS
TAKING THE SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER INLAND. THE LARGE VARIATIONS IN
CONSENSUS MEMBERS LEND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 50.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 50.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.1S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.8S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.0S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.5S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.2S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 27.7S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 32.5S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 50.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST. DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
DEEP AND EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS AS IT APPROACHED THE EAST COAST
OF NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 160216Z 36 GHZ GMI PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 14S IS IMMINENTLY
POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL THEN TURN SW-WARD OVER LAND AS THE NER TO THE
NE TAKES OVER STEERING FROM THE STR TO THE SE. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48,
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BACK INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
(SIO) AND BEGIN ETT. INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGE OF
EASTERN MADAGASCAR WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER,
AFTER IT MAKES IT BACK ONTO WATER, INCREASED OUTFLOW AND TPW WILL
REVIVE THE CYCLONE AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY
TAU 120, ELIAKIM WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE
LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL LAND
INTERACTION MAY SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT STORM MOTION, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE NEAR- AND MID-TERM PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. THERE IS AN ALTERNATE POSSIBILITY OF THE CYCLONE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING OVER LAND WITH A MERE DISTURBANCE EXITING
INTO THE SIO HINDERED FROM DEVELOPMENT BY STRONG VWS AND COOL SSTS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 161500Z, 162100Z,170300Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
15S (MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 50.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 50.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.2S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.2S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.8S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.3S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.4S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.0S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.6S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 49.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS HAVE COLLAPSED AND UNRAVELED AFTER THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL
OVER THE MASOALA PENINSULA ON THE EAST COAST OF NORTHERN MADAGASCAR.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM TIGHT CURVED BANDS IN THE
MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 161011Z ATMS
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. TC 14S
IS NOW EXPECTED TO TURN SW-WARD OVER LAND AS THE NER TO THE NE TAKES
OVER STEERING FROM THE STR TO THE SE. NEAR TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL
EXIT BACK INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO) AND BEGIN ETT.
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGE OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR
WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AFTER IT MAKES IT
BACK ONTO WATER, INCREASED OUTFLOW AND TPW WILL REVIVE THE CYCLONE
AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY TAU 120, ELIAKIM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE
WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL LAND INTERACTION MAY SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECT STORM MOTION, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE NEAR- AND MID-
TERM PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS AN ALTERNATE
POSSIBILITY OF THE CYCLONE GREATLY ERODING OVER LAND WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO THE SIO HINDERED FROM DEVELOPMENT BY STRONG
VWS AND COOL SSTS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND
171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 49.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 49.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.5S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.6S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.0S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.1S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.6S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.2S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 35.3S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 49.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WARM ANOMALY NOW OVER LAND IN
MADAGASCAR. A 161757Z 89GHZ MHS IMAGE SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION IN THE
OUTER BANDING WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM
CENTER LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION FROM A 161505Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 69 KNOTS
VALIDATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR
REPORTING NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60KTS NEAR 161200Z BUT HAVE
SINCE DECREASED TO 32KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER 14S WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 14S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BUILDING A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
EXTENSION TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHICAL FEATURES ON MADAGASCAR LIMITING FURTHER WESTWARD
MOTION AT THE SURFACE AND DUE TO THE REORIENTING STR. LAND
INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE RE-EMERGING OVER OPEN
WATER SOMETIME AFTER TAU 36. SSTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE INITIALLY NEAR
28 CELSIUS, BUT WILL DECLINE CONSIDERABLY AFTER TAU 72 ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER WINDOW OF LIMITED INTENSIFICATION WITH OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT. BEYOND TAY 72 TC 14S WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A
DEVELOPING MID LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO A COLD
CORE SYSTEM. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE RESULTING IN FULL
DISSIPATION WHILE TRACKING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF MADAGASCAR
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY NOTING DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK MOTION WHILE OVERLAND. THE ECMWF MODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL FROM
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO WITH A
TRACK CONTINUING WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 24
BEFORE REEMERGING OVER WATER. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND
172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 49.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 49.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.7S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.9S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.5S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 31.6S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 36.9S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 49.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM PRESENTLY OVER MADAGASCAR WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION AND QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY
ON AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 45 KNOTS REFLECTS A WEAKENING TREND
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND SUPPORTED BY LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER 14S WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY WITH THE MAIN
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST CURRENTLY REORIENTING ITSELF ON A
NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL FEATURES
ON MADAGASCAR LIMITING FURTHER WESTWARD MOTION AT THE SURFACE AND
DUE TO THE REORIENTING STR. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
BEFORE RE-EMERGING OVER OPEN WATER SOMETIME AROUND TAU 36. SSTS WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE INITIALLY NEAR 28 CELSIUS, BUT WILL DECLINE
CONSIDERABLY AFTER TAU 72 ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WINDOW OF LIMITED
INTENSIFICATION WITH OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. BEYOND
TAU 72 TC 14S WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A DEVELOPING MID LATITUDE
TROUGH AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO A COLD CORE SYSTEM. AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE RESULTING IN FULL DISSIPATION WHILE TRACKING
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF MADAGASCAR IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY NOTING DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK MOTION WHILE OVERLAND.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO WITH A TRACK CONTINUING WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 24 BEFORE HAVING A CHANCE TO
REEMERGE OVER WATER. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z,
172100Z AND 180300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
010
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTXS31 PGTW 171500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.0S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.7S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.7S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.8S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 28.3S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.5S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 422 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 49.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 49.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.8S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.9S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.0S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.2S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 29.7S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 34.8S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 49.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW
SATELLITE FIX AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 171433Z 91GHZ SSMI/S
MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A SLIGHT DISSIPATION IN THE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, WITH THE LATTER TAPPING INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
TC 14S IS NOW BACK OVER WATER AND PERSISTENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH INCREASING VWS WILL PREVENT ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
AROUND TAU 72 AND THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. TC 14S
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
DIRECTION LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 49.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 49.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.1S 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.0S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.3S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.6S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 31.4S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 49.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A
172238Z 882BT ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY NOTCH
FEATURE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND WEAK BANDING WRAPPING IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE UNCHANGED NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS LARGELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE
SYSTEM IS STILL OVER LAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, THE LATTER OF
WHICH IS CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA
OF WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. TC ELIAKIM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH
TAU 48 UNDER PERSISTENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48,
INCREASING VWS COMBINED WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 14S WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AROUND TAU 48 AND THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 72. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK DIRECTION LENDING OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z,
181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
014
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTXS31 PGTW 181500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 20.1S 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 49.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.0S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.2S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.6S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.0S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.8S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 49.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM WEST
OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 21.2S 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 49.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.3S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.5S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 27.9S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.6S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 35.1S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 49.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM WEST
OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PULSATING BANDING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES
AND A LOW REFLECTION CIRCULATION FEATURE OBSERVED IN AN 181555Z 89
GHZ SSMIS, ALSO SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS, ABOVE AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), AND BELOW AN 181556Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT SOURCE
DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD CHANNEL TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET, AND ANOTHER
POINT SOURCE APPROXIMATELY 500 NM TO THE NORTHWEST THAT APPEARS TO
BE CREATING SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY EXPLAINING THE
LACK OF CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE
NEAR 27 CELSIUS. TC 14S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS GUIDED BY THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU
24 AS IT TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE WATERS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE
ENCROACHING NORTHWEST POINT SOURCE. BEYOND TAU 24, SSTS WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE WITH A STEEP GRADIENT POLEWARD OF 30 DEGREES SOUTH.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND TC 14S WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM BY TAU 72 AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHT GROUPING OF AVAILABLE
SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 22.7S 49.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 49.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.9S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.2S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.0S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.4S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 36.8S 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 49.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BANDING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 45
KNOTS IS GENEROUSLY ABOVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY A PARTIAL 181854Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A
REGION OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND AN 182130Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT
SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE WITH A
STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET, AND
ANOTHER POINT SOURCE APPROXIMATELY 500 NM TO THE NORTHWEST THAT
APPEARS TO BE CREATING SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
EXPLAINING THE LACK OF CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. SSTS IN THE AREA
ARE FAVORABLE NEAR 27 CELSIUS. TC 14S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS GUIDED BY THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE WATERS
AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST POINT SOURCE. BEYOND
TAU 24, SSTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WITH A STEEP GRADIENT POLEWARD
OF 30 DEGREES SOUTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INCREASE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND
TC 14S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 72 AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHT
GROUPING OF AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
018
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 24.6S 50.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 50.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.0S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.7S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.2S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 34.3S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BANDING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN QUADRANTS, WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC BEING PARTIALLY OBSCURED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27C) SSTS OFFSET BY HIGH (25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST, REMAIN AT 40-45 KNOTS, BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 24, AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY GROUPED, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 25.4S 51.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 51.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 28.0S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.6S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 32.8S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 26.1S 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BANDING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
QUADRANTS, WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
EIR IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY A 191541Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OBSERVED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION, WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27C) SSTS
OFFSET BY HIGH (25 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14S
IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, BEGINNING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 12, AND COMPLETING ETT BY TAU
36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY GROUPED, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z,
201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 26.3S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 28.8S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 31.2S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.6S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 26.9S 52.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BANDING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE POLEWARD
AND EASTWARD SIDE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE FOREMENTIONED
EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0
FROM FMEE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION, WITH HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE 25
CELSIUS AND DROPPING. TC 14S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST, BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 12,
AND COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
GROUPED, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
022
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 28.7S 53.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S 53.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 31.4S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 54.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
SOUTH OF ST. DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED, RAGGED, AND ELONGATED AS
THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND UNRAVELING CONDITION OF THE LLC IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE
201146Z GPM 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED
ON RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS. TC
ELIAKIM HAS BEGUN RAPID ETT AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG GALE-
FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 12. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_eliakim_jtwc_advisories.htm
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