Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone FAKIR : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2017-2018 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone FAKIR Track Map and Data |
WTXS22 PGTW 220800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220721Z APR 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 220730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5S 50.5E TO 17.0S 53.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.1S 50.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 51.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 50.6E, APPROXIMATELY 705
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 220252Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS THE
DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH DISTINCT POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH AT APPROXIMATELY
TAU 24 WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF
MADAGASCAR AS IT TRANSITS ALONG A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230800Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 4.6S 79.9E.//
=========================================================================
WTXS22 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751Z APR 17//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 220800)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4S 51.2E TO 19.5S 55.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230000Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 51.4E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
50.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 51.4E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
230007Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT
AREA WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SPLIT ON CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES JUST OFF THE MADAGASCAR COASTLINE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240300Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 4.6S 79.9E.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230252ZAPR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.5S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.0S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.2S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.0S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 24.5S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 231122Z SSMI 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE
SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(20 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
MADAGASCAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 28-29C REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5
(35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC 20S IS TRACKING QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 24, THEREFORE THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 55 KNOTS
BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 20S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG VWS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER
TAU 48, TC 20S WILL SLOW, DISSIPATE AND TURN EQUATORWARD AS A STRONG
HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
EQUATORWARD AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING OF THE EQUATORWARD TURN AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES
REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 230300).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.3S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.8S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 24.4S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 25.2S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 54.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES SATELLITE FIXES AND
A 231642Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT, WRAPPING INTO
A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS ENHANCED BY A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER MADAGASCAR. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 20S IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH 27-28
CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED
ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO
T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS. TC FAKIR IS
CURRENTLY ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST
OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SLOWING AFTER
TAU 24 AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 12, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK OF
60 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 12, TC 20S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS, CAUSING A RAPID
WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 24, DIVERGING RAPIDLY WITH NAVGEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE TURNING
THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD WHILE THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS TRACK
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z, AND 242100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 55.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.2S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.3S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.7S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.6S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 55.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 61 NM NORTH
OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED, FORMATIVE EYE
FEATURE PRESENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND A
232355Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC
20S HAS ENTERED AN AREA OF HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO
T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS. TC FAKIR IS
CURRENTLY ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AN ENHANCED STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND THE
TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
SLOW THE SYSTEMS FORWARD MOTION AFTER TAU 24. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 6 WITH HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY STRONG OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. AFTER TAU
6, TC 20S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSING
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COMBINED WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, THAT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND
THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK DIRECTION THROUGH
TAU 48 WITH PREVIOUS OUTLIERS NOW AGREEING WITH THE CONSENSUS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE ALONG TRACK SPEED AS
EACH MODEL BUILDS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AT A DIFFERENT TIME. THE
SPREAD IN ALONG TRACK SPEED LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.3S 56.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 56.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.7S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.3S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.7S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.2S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 56.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED
EYE FEATURE THAT HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND REPLACED BY A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 240229Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE.
THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN LOWER FREQUENCY MICROWAVE
IMAGES, SUGGESTING THAT HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (25-40
KNOTS) IS TILTING THE SYSTEM. THE HIGH VWS IS CURRENTLY BEING
OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK MULTIAGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS), AND IS HEDGED AT THE
HIGHER CI VALUE OF T4.0 DUE TO A 240545Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 77 KTS. TC
20S IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AN ENHANCED STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST
AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE STR TO THE EAST RECEDES. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
WEAKENING DUE TO THE SEVERE VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND COOLER SSTS ALONG ITS FORECAST TRACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. HOWEVER, AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE
WHERE TC 20S INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 48. MESOSCALE MODELS
FAVOR THIS SCENARIO IN WHICH TC 20S REINTENSIFIES AFTER TAU 48, BUT
WINDS AT THIS POINT WILL LIKELY BE EXPANSIVE AND FRONTAL IN NATURE
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
DIRECTION FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL OUTLIERS
PREDICT TC 20S HOOKING BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST; AS VWS ERODES
THE SYSTEM, IT WILL BECOME MORE SUBJECT TO LOWER-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW WHICH AT THAT POINT WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY. HOWEVER, IF TC 20S
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, IT WOULD ASSUME A MORE
EASTWARD, ACCELERATING TRACK. THE SPREAD IN TRACK DIRECTION LENDS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 22.8S 57.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 57.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.8S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.1S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.0S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 57.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DISINTEGRATED SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 241105Z SSMIS
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS AN OPEN REMNANT OF A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED BELOW DVORAK
MULTIAGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS); FINAL T
VALUES OF T3.0 FROM KNES AND PGTW INDICATE A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TREND
IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. HIGH (40-50 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING AND BECOMING HIGHLY
DISORGANIZED, DESPITE A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. TC 20S IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AN ENHANCED STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE STR TO THE EAST RECEDES AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TC
20S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING DUE TO THE SEVERE VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND COOLING
SSTS ALONG ITS FORECAST TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
DIRECTION FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A FEW OUTLIERS
PREDICT TC 20S HOOKING BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES SHEARED APART. TRACK SPEED ALSO VARIES WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST-
FAVORING MEMBER MODELS. DUE TO THESE OUTLIERS AND DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 23.8S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.2S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.3S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 58.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226 NM SOUTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY NOTCH FEATURE IN A
241746Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS) WHICH REFLECTS THE
WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC
20S STILL HAS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER,
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (40-50
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH COOL (25-26
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DISORGANIZED,
DESPITE THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MADAGASCAR. TC FAKIR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST
AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH TRANSITS TO THE EAST, A RIDGE BUILDS IN
BEHIND, OVER MADAGASCAR, WHICH WILL SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 20S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND COOLING SSTS ALONG ITS
FORECAST TRACK LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
DIRECTION WITH A FEW OUTLIERS (NAVGEM, GFS ENSEMBLE, JGSM) THAT
PREDICT TC 20S WILL HOOK BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM
IS SHEARED APART. TRACK SPEED ALSO VARIES SUBSTANTIALLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHEAST TRACKING CONSENSUS MODELS. DUE TO THESE OUTLIERS AND THE
VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 24.6S 59.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 59.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.4S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 59.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISSIPATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER 80NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND A
LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN A 242323Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE MAIN
CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0
(35-45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY AND REFLECTS THE
DISSIPATING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
TC 20S HAS POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS OFFSET BY VERY HIGH (60-70 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOL (<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM,
REACHING FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. TC FAKIR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND A
TROUGH TO THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH TRANSITS TO THE EAST, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER MADAGASCAR AND SLOWS THE FORWARD
MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, RETAINING THE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU
12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK DIRECTION AND ALONG TRACK SPEED FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_fakir_jtwc_advisories.htm
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