Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone HOLA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2017-2018 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone HOLA Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 171.5E TO 17.2S 165.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 171.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
172.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 171.1E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO OCCUR. A 050958Z
AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH
WITH BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. SST REMAIN WARM (28-30
CELSIUS) AND SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS TRACK
THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP 97P AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061400Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051352ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 168.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 168.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.5S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.9S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.2S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.0S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.5S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.0S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.9S 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 168.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED AS THE CONVECTION REORIENTED
AND DEEPENED CLOSER TO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 061036Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LLC THAT INCLUDES 35-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS THAT IS MITIGATED
BY ITS STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW.
A ROBUST WESTERLY OUTFLOW, EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY,
IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C. THESE OVERALL POSITIVE
DYNAMICS ARE, HOWEVER, TEMPORARILY TEMPERED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY CAUSED BY A RECEDING MID-LATITUDE LOW. TC 12P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 36, IT IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND
TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW ZEALAND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS NEAR TAU 72 AFTER IT
MAKES THE RECURVE POLEWARD, ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, TC 12P WILL BE REDUCED TO 55 KNOTS WITH AN
EXPANDING WIND FIELD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVING
TRACK WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. THIS, IN ADDITION TO
THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 051400).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 168.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 168.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.5S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.9S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.6S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.6S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.0S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.4S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 34.0S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 168.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM NORTH OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROADENING MASS OF DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 061502Z SSMIS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE.
THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT EIR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HEDGED TO THE HIGHER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY A 061417Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS AND A 061740Z
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE VWS ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED
SUBSTANTIALLY (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) WITH STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
CONTINUING TO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS
INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE, THE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT
IS ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 36, TC 12P IS
EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT TAU 72
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS AFTER
IT MAKES THE RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS ENHANCED BY INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AS WELL AS DECREASING
SST AND OHC WILL STEADILY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, TC 12P WILL
BE REDUCED TO 55 KNOTS WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AS IT BEGINS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVING TRACK WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE
CURRENT LAND INTERACTION AND RECENT RAPID DEVELOPMENT LEND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 167.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.4S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.0S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.8S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.8S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.9S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 30.0S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 35.3S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 167.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MASS OF DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALING
INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
062136Z GPMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WEAK BUT DISCERNIBLE
LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE. THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ANIMATED
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED TO THE HIGHER END
OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5
(45 TO 55 KNOTS) AND A 062145Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALING SEVERAL
50 KNOT BARBS WITH ONE 55 KNOT BARB. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 062340Z
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE VWS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE
(LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) WITH STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW CONTINUING TO
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE, THE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT IS ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AFTER
TAU 36, TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND
TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW
ZEALAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT TAU 60 ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING JUST
ABOVE 125 KNOTS AFTER RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEING ENHANCED
BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AS WELL AS
DECREASING SST AND OHC WILL STEADILY ERODE THE SYSTEM. TC 12P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ETT AROUND TAU 96 WITH ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVING TRACK AND
THE TIMING OF THE TURN. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED WHICH LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 166.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 166.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.6S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.4S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.1S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.2S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 24.0S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.9S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 36.0S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 166.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTHWEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING
INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A DEFINED CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE 070422Z LOW REFLECTIVITY COLOR-ENHANCED 37 GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LOW (05-10 KNOT) VWS WITH EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD
BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY,
PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48 AFTER RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BEING ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AS WELL AS DECREASING SST AND OHC WILL STEADILY ERODE THE SYSTEM.
TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ETT AROUND TAU 96 WITH CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE BECOMING ASYMMETRIC AND WIND FIELD EXPANDING. HOLA WILL
BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN A TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH JGSM AS THE NOTABLE RIGHTMOST
OUTLIER. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED ESPECIALLY
DURING RECURVATURE WHICH LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 166.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 166.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.3S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.0S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.9S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.3S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.5S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.2S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 37.4S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 166.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM NORTHWEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATED AND DEVELOPED A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE AS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS SPIRALED TIGHTER INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE IR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0 AND CONSISTENT
WITH A NEWLY-FORMED EYE FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VWS WITH EXCELLENT DUAL
OUTFLOW WITH A POLEWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE
AT 30C. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 12P HAS BEGUN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48 AFTER RECURVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEING ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AS WELL AS DECREASING SST AND OHC WILL, IN
TURN, RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ETT
AROUND TAU 72 WITH CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BECOMING ASYMMETRIC AND THE
WIND FIELD EXPANDING. HOLA WILL BECOME A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE
LOW BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH JGSM AND NVGM AS THE NOTABLE RIGHTMOST OUTLIERS IN THE NEAR AND
EXTENDED TERM, RESPECTIVELY. THERE ALSO REMAINS DISTINCT DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK SPEED ESPECIALLY DURING RECURVATURE AMONG THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS LAID JUST LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET JGSM AND
NVGM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 165.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 165.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.0S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.0S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.7S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.9S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.3S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 35.1S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM WEST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A PINHOLE EYE, SO THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, THE COLD
CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE RAGGED OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS, INDICATING A PAUSE IN THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T5.0 TO T5.5, JUSTIFYING AN
INTENSITY REMAINING AT 90 KNOTS. TC 12P IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE SYSTEM AND TURNS IT SHARPLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 36, TC
12P IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW
INCREASES. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND TAU
72, WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z,
082100Z, AND 090300Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.4S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.5S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.4S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.8S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.0S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 36.0S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM WEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A SMALL EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 080600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE MOSTLY CLOUD FILLED EYE WITH DEEP
SYMMETRIC CONVECTION AROUND IT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS
IS BASED ON A 080230Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 94 KNOTS AND HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM
PHFO, KNES, NFFN, AND PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 12P IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER,
TC 12P IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 12P WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST. IN THE SHORT TERM, TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 24
BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 72, TC 12P WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 96. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND JGSM, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER,
BEYOND TAU 48 THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 009
WTPS32 PGTW 081500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.4S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.7S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.7S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.3S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.7S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 36.7S 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM WEST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPS32 PGTW 082100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 165.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 165.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.9S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.2S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.4S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.2S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 31.0S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 165.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM WEST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPS32 PGTW 090300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 165.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 165.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.1S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.9S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.4S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.2S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 32.0S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM WEST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 013
WTPS32 PGTW 091500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 166.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 166.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.9S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.5S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.5S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 29.8S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 167.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 20.4S 168.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 168.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.5S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.3S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 28.5S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 31.6S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 168.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL (14 NM DIAMETER) IRREGULAR EYE THAT
REFORMED BRIEFLY AT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, FROM 091720Z TO
091800Z, BEFORE FILLING IN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
091800Z EIR IMAGE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 091649Z SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. HOWEVER, THIS
FEATURE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED IN THE ASSOCIATED 37 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALING THE LOWER LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.0
(90 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW AND HEDGED LOW DUE TO THE FLEETING
NATURE OF THE EYE FEATURE THAT THESE FIXES WERE BASED ON.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27 DEGREES CELSIUS. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE
UNFAVORABLE (BELOW 40 KJ); HOWVEVER, THIS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR
LIMITING LIMITING FACTOR AS TC 12P ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. AS
TC 12P CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER
UNFAVORABLE VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BY TAU 36, TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS
VWS DRASTICALLY INCREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND CONSENSUS MEMBERS REMAIN IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 015
WTPS32 PGTW 100300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 169.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 169.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.3S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.7S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.5S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 33.6S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 170.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPS32 PGTW 100900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 21.6S 169.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 169.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.2S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 28.5S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 31.5S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 34.7S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 170.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM EAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS
23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPS32 PGTW 101500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 25.3S 172.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 172.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.1S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.2S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 35.6S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 173.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM
NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 018
WTPS32 PGTW 102100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.7S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 33.8S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 28.2S 173.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 019
WTPS32 PGTW 110300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 28.7S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.8S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 173.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM EAST OF
KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z
IS 28 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_hola_jtwc_advisories.htm
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