SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPS31 PGTW 121500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 159.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 159.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 18.3S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.3S 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.5S 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.9S 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 25.8S 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 29.0S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 159.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 497 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND
131500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 160.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 160.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 18.9S 158.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 20.3S 157.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 21.9S 156.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 23.3S 156.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 26.3S 157.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 27.8S 159.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 159.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
IMAGERY DEPICTS ELONGATED BANDS WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 
EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A BROAD LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION 
FEATURE IN THE 121419Z GCOM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR 
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK 
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO. THE CYCLONE IS 
TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. 
ADDITIONALLY, SSTS IN THE AREA ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 29C-30C. WARM 
SSTS AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENABLE TC 13P TO INTENSIFY IN 
THE SHORT TERM, TO A MAXIMUM OF 45 KTS AT TAU 24. AS THE STR 
CONTINUES TO BUILD, TC 13P WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, 
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK 
SOUTHWARD THEN RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 13P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD 
TOWARDS AN AREA OF HIGHER VWS (OVER 25 KTS). DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS BEING IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION, THE INCREASING VWS WILL 
IMPEDE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM, AND BEGIN TO 
DEGRADE THE CYCLONE AFTER TAU 48. AFTERWARD, AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS 
THE STR, STRONG VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE 
SYSTEM, WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 35 KTS AFTER TAU 72. BY TAU 
96, TC 13P WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER 
WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT 
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 160.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 160.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 19.2S 159.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 20.5S 157.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 21.9S 157.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 23.6S 157.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 25.6S 157.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 159.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A TIGHTENING 
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL ANIMATED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A BULLSEYE 122301Z ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS BASED ON A PATCH OF 
35 KT WIND BARBS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS TO THE EAST OF THE 
LLCC, WITH RAIN-FLAGGED 40 KT WIND VECTORS CLOSER TO THE CENTER. THE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW MULTIAGENCY DVORAK 
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND A 122000Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 49 KTS. 
A 121959Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE CENTER POSITION AND TO THE EAST, ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TRAILING EQUATORWARD RAIN BAND. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SOUTH ALONG 
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO 
THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN 
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS 
OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WANING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 
ADDITIONALLY, SSTS IN THE AREA ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 29C-30C. WARM 
SSTS AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENABLE TC 13P TO INTENSIFY IN 
THE SHORT TERM, TO A MAXIMUM OF 45 KTS AT TAU 12. AS THE STR 
CONTINUES TO BUILD, TC 13P WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 36, 
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK 
SOUTHWARD. TC 13P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS AN AREA OF HIGHER 
VWS (OVER 25 KTS). DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING IN-PHASE WITH 
THE STORM MOTION, THE INCREASING VWS WILL IMPEDE SIGNIFICANT 
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM, AND BEGIN TO DEGRADE THE CYCLONE 
AFTER TAU 24. AFTERWARD, AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR, STRONG VWS 
AND COOLING SSTS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS 
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 35 KTS AFTER TAU 48. BY TAU 
72, TC 13P WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER 
WATER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH GFS INDICATING SLOWER MOVEMENT AND A MORE 
WESTWARD TRACK THAN THE MAJORITY OF MODELS, WHICH CAPTURE THE 
PREDICTED TURN TO THE SOUTH AROUND THE STR. ADDITIONALLY, OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL RUNS MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A SOUTHWESTWARD 
TURN IN THE TRACK THAT HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 
131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
=========================================================================
UBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNING
WTPS31 PGTW 130900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (LINDA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 159.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 159.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.1S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.5S 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 25.4S 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 27.3S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 159.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.// 
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPS31 PGTW 131500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (LINDA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 20.5S 159.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 159.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.7S 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.8S 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 26.7S 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 158.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.// 
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (LINDA) WARNING NR 006    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 157.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 157.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 23.2S 156.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 25.2S 156.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 26.4S 156.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 27.9S 157.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 157.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 131739Z PARTIAL SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS BASED ON A 131131Z ASCAT PASS 
DEPICTING A BROAD SWATH OF 40-45 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF 
CENTER, AND ISOLATED 50 KNOT WIND BARBS. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 
HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) 
FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND BELOW A 131437Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 62 KTS. 
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (25 TO 35 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 
FAVORABLE SSTS (27 TO 28C). ADDITIONALLY, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS 
PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, BRINGING DRY AIR THAT IS 
BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CYCLONE. TC 13P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
SOUTHWESTWARD THEN TURN SOUTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHILE 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 13P, 
WHICH WILL DROP BELOW 35 KTS AFTER TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK 
CONTINUES TO BE HEDGED SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND FASTER THAN THE 
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET SLOWER MOVING AND WESTWARD MOVING OUTLIERS THAT 
DO NOT CAPTURE THE SOUTHWARD TURN. OVERALL, JTWC HAS LOW CONFIDENCE 
IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEED AND 
DEGREE OF SOUTHWARD TURN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z 
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (LINDA) WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 157.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 157.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 23.5S 156.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 25.0S 156.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 26.4S 156.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 156.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 411 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 132016Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE 
SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY 
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) T3.0 (45 KTS), WHICH ARE 
BELOW A 131948Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 54 KTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE (STR) THAT HAS AMPLIFIED TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (25 TO 35 KNOT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13P IS TRACKING 
OVER WARM BUT DIMINISHING SSTS (27 TO 28C) AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. 
ADDITIONALLY, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA FROM 
THE WEST, BRINGING DRY AIR THAT IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CYCLONE 
AND LEADING TO THE DISSOLUTION OF ALL EVIDENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 
CYCLONE. TC 13P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN TURN SOUTH 
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS, TC 13P WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, AND DROP BELOW 35 KTS AFTER 
TAU 24. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BE HEDGED SLIGHTLY EAST 
OF AND FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS TO OFFSET SLOWER MOVING AND 
WESTWARD MOVING OUTLIERS THAT DO NOT CAPTURE THE SOUTHWARD TURN. 
OVERALL, JTWC HAS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEED AND DEGREE OF SOUTHWARD TURN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
NNNN
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (LINDA) WARNING NR 009    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z --- NEAR 22.9S 156.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 156.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 23.7S 156.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 156.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, DECAYING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT. A PARTIAL 141108Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A NARROW REGION OF 
35 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (35 TO 40 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND 26C SST. 
THEREFORE, TC 13P WILL WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS THE 
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. JTWC HAS HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL 
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 18 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_linda_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]