Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone MARCUS : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2017-2018 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone MARCUS Track Map and Data |
WTXS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150451ZMAR18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.7S 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 11.5S 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.4S 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.1S 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.4S 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.0S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.9S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 132.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
INFRARED LOOP AND A 151852Z 37GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENISTY IF 35
KNOT IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE
SYSTEM OF 32 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE
ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT THEY SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (20-25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 15S IS CURRENTLY
RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF
THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 11S IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24,
LAND INTERACTION WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS BETWEEN
MAINLAND AUSTRALIA AND THE TIWI ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72 AT WHICH
TIME THE TRACK DIRECTION BECOMES MORE WESTWARD AS TC 15S MOVES OUT
INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY
AFTER TAU 36 AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEAL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK DIRECTION HOWEVER, INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS MEMBERS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW FAR INLAND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK. THESE
VARIATIONS IN TRACK LOCATIONS CAUSE EXTENSIVE VARIATIONS IN BOTH
ALONG TRACK SPEED AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 150500). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 10.6S 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.4S 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.2S 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.1S 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.8S 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.9S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.2S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.1S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 132.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 152 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER AND
OCCLUDING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
MULTISPECTRAL LOOP AND THE ANIMATED RADAR LOOP FROM THE AUSTRALIAN
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BETWEEN
MULTI-AGENCY AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.5 TO T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
NO ORGANIZED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT
THEY SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 15S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AS IT IS RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, REACHING A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU
24, EXTENSIVE LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE A BRIEF WEAKENING TREND AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS BETWEEN MAINLAND AUSTRALIA AND THE TIWI ISLANDS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE TRACK DIRECTION
SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A STR ANCHORED OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN IT WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS,
REACHING 85 KNOTS BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK DIRECTION. THE INDIVIDUAL
CONSENSUS MEMBERS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW FAR INLAND THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK WHICH IS CAUSING LARGE VARIATIONS IN BOTH THE ALONG TRACK
SPEED AND INTENSITY. DUE TO THE VARIATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE
IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 131.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.0S 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.9S 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.7S 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.3S 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.1S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.3S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.2S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 131.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MOSTLY MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE EVEN AS IT TRACKED BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS NORTH OF DARWIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-
DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM DARWIN WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ADRM RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO
45 KNOTS). TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SSW-WARD TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THAT IS ANCHORED WEST-EAST OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND DRAG ALONG THE NORTHERN AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE.
BY TAU 72, JUST NORTH OF BROOME, IT WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO). DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, MARCUS WILL
STRUGGLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE SIO, A
RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL COMMENCE, AIDED BY ANTICIPATED
STRONG OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, AND WARM SSTS IN THE AREA. BY TAU 120, TC
15S IS FORECAST TO REACH 100 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION DURING THE NEAR TERM
MAY AFFECT ITS STORM MOTION, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 11.4S 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 131.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.2S 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.1S 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.8S 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.3S 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.2S 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.1S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.2S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 131.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MOSTLY MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE EVEN AS IT TRACKED ACROSS THE
TIWI ISLANDS NORTH OF DARWIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM DARWIN AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY LLC FEATURE IN THE 160938Z 36
GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY AND SATCON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5
TO T3.2. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THAT IS ANCHORED WEST-EAST
OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND DRAG ALONG THE NORTHERN AUSTRALIAN
COASTLINE. BY TAU 72, JUST NORTH OF BROOME, IT WILL TRACK MORE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO). DUE TO LAND INTERACTION,
MARCUS WILL INTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER,
AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE SIO, A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL
COMMENCE, AIDED BY ANTICIPATED STRONG OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, AND WARM SSTS
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK. BY TAU 120, TC 15S IS PREDICTED TO
REACH 100 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION DURING THE NEAR TERM
MAY AFFECT ITS STORM MOTION, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z,
170900Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.5S 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.3S 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.8S 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.4S 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.8S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.7S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.4S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 131.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 63 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION ORGANIZING
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY FROM DARWIN SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CIRCULAR CENTER JUST OFFSHORE AND SKIRTING
THE COASTLINE. A 161839Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION SITUATED OVER LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35
TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT
CREATING A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH NOTABLE
DIFFLUENCE. SSTS ARE EXTREMELY WARM NEAR THE COAST LINE AROUND 31
CELSIUS AND WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 30 CELSIUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. TC 15S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AUSTRALIAN
CONTINENT WHICH WILL BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED AND SHIFT THE SYSTEM
TO A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. INITIALLY TC 15S WILL TRACK ALONG THE
COASTLINE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND THE PRESENCE OF
LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. BEYOND TAU 48 TC 15S WILL TRACK OVER
OPEN WATER, AND WITH IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
INTENSIFY QUICKLY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSE
GROUPING OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST
OVER THE FIRST 48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING SO CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE.
DESPITE THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE IS OVERALL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z,
171500Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.3S 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.9S 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.5S 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.9S 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.1S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.1S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.1S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 130.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES
AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM DARWIN SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CIRCULAR CENTER NOW OVERLAND. A
162046Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FORMING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THE EYE FEATURE IS NOT OBSERVABLE IN THE CORRESPONDING 37GHZ BAND OR
IN RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
LOWER END OF PREVIOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45
TO 55 KNOTS) AND SUPPORTED BY LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT CREATING A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH NOTABLE DIFFLUENCE. SSTS ARE EXTREMELY WARM
NEAR THE COAST LINE AROUND 31 CELSIUS AND WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 30
CELSIUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TC 15S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT WHICH WILL BECOME EAST-WEST
ORIENTED AND SHIFT THE SYSTEM TO A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.
INITIALLY TC 15S WILL TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE INTENSIFICATION TREND DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND THE PRESENCE OF LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR.
BEYOND TAU 48 TC 15S WILL TRACK OVER OPEN WATER, AND WITH IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY QUICKLY REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSE GROUPING OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST OVER THE FIRST 48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING SO
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE. DESPITE THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
SHORT TERM, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
007
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTXS32 PGTW 171500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 13.5S 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.1S 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.8S 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.3S 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.1S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.5S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.6S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 128.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 13.9S 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.4S 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.0S 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.5S 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.6S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.3S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.2S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.6S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 128.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION CENTRALLY
LOCATED OVER AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BETWEEN RECENT AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS) FROM
APRF AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM
(30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT BRIEFLY TRACKS
THROUGH THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF. TC 15S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE TRACK IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT, BECOMING MORE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. AFTER
TAU 72, 15S WILL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH ROUNDS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE RIDGE. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE NORTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE AND REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VWS,
LIMITING INTENSIFICATION UNTIL AFTER TAU 36 WHEN THE CYCLONE IS OVER
WATER AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE. TC MARCUS IS
FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 96.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72 WHEN THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS BEGIN TO SPREAD. THE MODELS GUIDANCE
LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 WITH
CONFIDENCE DECREASING AS THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS INCREASES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.7S 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.2S 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.5S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.2S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.6S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.9S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 127.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING MASS OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL LOOP AND ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM
BOTH APRF AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAKER POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HAS BEEN
TRACKING THROUGH WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF. TC 15S IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL SHORTLY MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WILL
BUILD, CAUSING THE TRACK TO SHIFT MORE WESTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24 AND
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LIMITED THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND. AFTER
TRACKING BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
011
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.5S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.6S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.4S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.1S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.5S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.4S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.7S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 124.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S IS STRADDLING THE NORTHERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THEREFORE, THERE IS
EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WHILE
TRACKING OVER LAND THROUGH 18/12Z, HOWEVER, THE PGTW 18/1430Z DVORAK
ESTIMATE IS NOW T3.5 (55 KNOTS) REFLECTING THE SHORT-TERM
IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RE-EMERGE OVER
WATER. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY
FAVORABLE, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TAU
96. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL
RECURVE SOUTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND TRACKS TOWARD A BREAK IN
THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.7S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.4S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.2S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.3S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.3S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.9S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.5S 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 123.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH DENSE CENTRAL OVERCAST AND
COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE OBSERVED
IN BOTH 181836Z 85 AND 37 GHZ SSMI IMAGES WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES
IN SATELLITE FIXES; HOWEVER, ALL AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES TC 15S HAS
REEMERGED OVER WATER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH A DEFINED EASTERN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AGAINST THE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SSTS ARE EXTREMELY WARM
(30 TO 31 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS SOMETIME
BEFORE TAU 72. TC 15S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 15S
WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNTIL AROUND TAU 72 WHEN THE TRACK WILL SHIFT
POLEWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THE POLEWARD TRACK WILL TAKE TC 15S
INTO COOLER WATERS WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IN LATER TAUS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND
192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.1S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 14.9S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.9S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.1S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.8S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.7S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.3S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 122.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING IN THE EARLY STAGE OF EYE FORMATION. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON A NEARLY CLOSED
OFF MICROWAVE EYE IN AN 182306Z 89 GHZ MHS IMAGE AND A SIMILAR CYAN
RING FEATURE OBSERVED AN 182208 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE SSMIS IMAGE,
INDICATIVE OF NEAR-TERM RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT OF 65 KNOTS REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
AVERAGING MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.5
(55 TO 77 KNOTS) AND A 182203Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS. NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ADELE ISLAND IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 45 KNOTS AND A 6 MB DROP IN MSLP TO 998 MB
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH A DEFINED EASTERN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AGAINST THE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SSTS ARE ALSO
EXTREMELY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) WITH SIGNIFICANT OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, AND WILL SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS SOMETIME BEFORE TAU 48.
TC 15S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 15S WILL TRACK
WESTWARD UNTIL AROUND TAU 72 WHEN THE TRACK WILL SHIFT POLEWARD
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THE POLEWARD TRACK WILL TAKE TC 15S INTO
COOLER WATERS WHICH WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IN LATER TAUS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND
200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
015
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.5S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.3S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.4S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.9S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.6S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.6S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.9S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 120.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND A RAGGED, 11 NM EYE, THAT INSTILLS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 95 KNOTS
REFLECTS THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF T4.5 TO T5.5 (77 TO 102
KNOTS) AND A 191038Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 95 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SSTS (30 TO 31C). ALL THESE
FACTORS SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM
TAU 24 TO 36, THE STORM INTENSIFIES MORE SLOWLY TO ITS PEAK
INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. TC 15S WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA
UNTIL JUST BEFORE TAU 48 WHEN THE TRACK WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
POLEWARD AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. AS IT BEGINS THAT
TURN, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS AND TC 15S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN, SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN
RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK. BEYOND TAU 72, HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND
201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 119.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.1S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.0S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.3S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.3S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.7S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.7S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.9S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 119.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A RAGGED 10 NM
EYE THAT INSTILLS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) HEDGED LOWER
DUE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUD FILLING IN THE EYE OBSERVED AROUND
191800Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SSTS (30
TO 31C). ALL THESE FACTORS SUPPORT CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 15S WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA.
FROM TAU 24 TO 48, THE STORM INTENSIFIES MORE SLOWLY AND THEN BEGINS
TO WEAKEN DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHEASTLY VWS AS IT BEGINS
TO DEFLECT SOUTHWESTWARD. AS TC 15S CONTINUES POLEWARD ALONG THE
RIDGE AXIS, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. RAPID WEAKENING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR
AFTER TAU 72, AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AT ABOUT TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z,
200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 118.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 118.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.9S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.0S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.6S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.5S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.6S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.5S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.6S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CLOUD-FILLED 7 NM EYE THAT
INSTILLS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW
(LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SSTS (30 TO
31C). ALL THESE FACTORS SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AS TC 15S TRACKS WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO WEAKEN DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHEASTLY VWS AS IT
BEGINS TO DEFLECT SOUTHWESTWARD. AS TC 15S CONTINUES POLEWARD ALONG
THE RIDGE AXIS, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
WITH INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. RAPID WEAKENING WILL BEGIN TO
OCCUR AFTER TAU 72, AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN BY TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z,
201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
019
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 115.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 115.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.7S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.2S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.2S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.9S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.3S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.7S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.5S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 114.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CYCLONE HAS
RE-DEVELOPED AN 11-NM SHARPLY OUTLINED EYE AS HIGHLY-SYMMETRICAL
BANDS WRAPPED EVEN TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
201032Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 5.5 TO 6.0 AND REFLECTS THE INTENSIFICATION. TC 15S IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO A PEAK OF
130 KNOTS THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS IT RECURVES SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC MARCUS WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.8S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.6S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.9S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.9S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.2S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.2S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 28.0S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 113.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A MATURE SYSTEM WITH A PINHOLE EYE (9 NM IN
DIAMETER) THAT HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN PERIODS OF CLOUD-FILLING AND
CLEARING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THIS EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES IN AGREEMENT AT T6.0 (115 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
SSTS (29 TO 30 CELSIUS), AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), WHICH
ALL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA. FROM
TAU 24 TO TAU 48, INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS TC 15S DEFLECTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS AND DECREASED OHC.
AFTER TAU 48, TC 15S WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS
AND TRACKS POLEWARD INTO STEADILY DECREASING SSTS AND UNFAVORABLE
VWS. THESE UNFAVORABLE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER
BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING STRONG EVIDENCE OF
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO AND REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) FOR FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 112.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 112.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.0S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.0S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.7S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.7S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.7S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.0S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 30.0S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 111.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
PINHOLE EYE (8 NM IN DIAMETER) THAT CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
PERIODS OF CLOUD-FILLING AND CLEARING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR
IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 202317Z 91GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ENCIRCLING THE ENTIRE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS IS BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T6.0 (115 KNOTS) AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 125 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
TC 15S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC MARCUS IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS
BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM TRACK IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT
BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AROUND
TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 AS TC 15S
ENCOUNTERS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VWS AND
DECREASED OHC. AFTER TAU 48, TC 15S WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS INTO STEADILY DECREASING SSTS AND UNFAVORABLE VWS. THESE
UNFAVORABLE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO TC 15S DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY
TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
=========================================================================
023
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTXS32 PGTW 211500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 109.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.1S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.7S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.8S 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.4S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.8S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.4S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 108.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z
AND 221500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 108.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.7S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.6S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.9S 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.6S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.9S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.6S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 108.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM WITH DEEP BANDING
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 17 NM EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T7.0 (140 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT FEEDING INTO BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED TO THE NORTHEAST IS CREATING SOME
CONVERGENCE AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON THIS SIDE. SSTS IN THE REGION
ARE ALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE NEAR 30 CELSIUS, HOWEVER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH SUGGESTING TC 15S WILL NOT INTENSIFY
FURTHER. TC 15S IS NOW TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
FURTHER POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS INTO COOLER WATERS.
INITIALLY SSTS DECREASE ONLY MARGINALLY, HOWEVER BEYOND TAU 36 THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DECREASES RAPIDLY INTO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NEAR TAU 48 TC 15S WILL APPROACH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY INCREASING. DUE TO THESE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 15S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 48. TC 15S WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE
OVER WATER SOMETIME BEFORE TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT GROUPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS.
OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 107.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 107.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.4S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.5S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.1S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.7S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.5S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 33.1S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 107.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM WITH DEEP BANDING
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 12 NM EYE FEATURE THAT HAS COOLED
SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
140 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T7.0 (140 KNOTS), HOWEVER
RECENT DVORAK DATA-T ANALYSES HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE SUGGESTING
THAT TC 15S HAS BEGUN ITS WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT FEEDING INTO BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED TO THE NORTHEAST IS CREATING SOME
CONVERGENCE AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON THIS SIDE. SSTS IN THE REGION
ARE ALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE NEAR 30 CELSIUS, HOWEVER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. TC 15S IS NOW TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS INTO
COOLER WATERS. INITIALLY SSTS DECREASE ONLY MARGINALLY, HOWEVER
BEYOND TAU 36 THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DECREASES RAPIDLY INTO
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. NEAR TAU 48 TC 15S WILL APPROACH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY
INCREASING. DUE TO THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 15S
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 48. TC 15S WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER SOMETIME BEFORE TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT
GROUPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 52
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 106.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 106.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.4S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.7S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.3S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.5S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.6S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 106.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 541 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 12 NM EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION
THAT APPEARS TO BE WARMING SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON PGTW
AND KNES CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS).
RECENT DVORAK DATA-T ANALYSES OF T6.5 SUGGEST THAT TC 15S IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW EARLY SIGNS OF WEAKENING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (28-29C). TC 15S IS NOW TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER POLEWARD AND BRING TC 15S
INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN MORE
RAPIDLY AS THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER WATER BY AROUND TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT
GROUPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 52
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTXS32 PGTW 221500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 106.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.8S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.4S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.9S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.8S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.4S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 106.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 522 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 106.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.1S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.8S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.5S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.5S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 33.0S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 106.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A
PREVIOUSLY OBSERVABLE EYE FEATURE NOW COMPLETELY CLOUD FILLED.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15S IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH THE INNER EYEWALL VIRTUALLY
INDISTINGUISHABLE IN AN 221507Z 89 GHZ MHS IMAGE AND AN OUTER RING
OF CONVECTION NEARLY CLOSED OFF WITH EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN MOST
EDGE SHOWING A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T 6.0 TO T6.5 (127
TO 115 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW DIRECTLY ABOVE THE SYSTEM FEEDING INTO A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY WARM NEAR 28
CELSIUS. TC 15S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 15S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND INTO COOLER
WATERS TURNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AS TC 15S APPROACHES THE MID
LATITUDE WESTERLY JET. DEGRADING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TC 15S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER
SOMETIME BEFORE TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 19.9S 105.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 105.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.5S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.1S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.3S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.2S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 106.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 481 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SPIRAL BANDING WITH DENSE
OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15S RECENTLY UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH THE INNER EYEWALL MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH ONLY
AN AREA OF WEAK CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINING OBSERVED IN A 222300Z
91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWING THE NEWLY FORMED OUTER RING OF
CONVECTION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS WHICH IS
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T5.5 TO T6.0 (102 TO 115 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
VERY LOW WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW DIRECTLY ABOVE THE
SYSTEM FEEDING INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS ARE ALSO
VERY WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS. TC 15S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
AUSTRALIA. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD AND INTO COOLER WATERS TURNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AFTER TAU 48. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AS TC
15S APPROACHES THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY JET. DEGRADING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TC 15S
WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 21.2S 105.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 105.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.9S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.4S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.3S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.4S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 105.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 467 NM WEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. THE INTENSITY OF
95 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY FIX DATA FROM CIMSS AND
CIRA. TC 15S IS STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY AND WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER
AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS STEADY WEAKENING TREND WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU
48. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NR//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 106.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.0S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.1S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.0S 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 106.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EYE FEATURE, BUT A 231445Z AMSU-
B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LLCC HAS BEGUN TO
SEPARATE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, LEADING TO
PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN WHAT
THE IR IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, AND AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS OF T3.9 (59 KNOTS). TC 15S IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY AND
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA
OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 232100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 033A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 23.7S 106.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 106.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.3S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.7S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.8S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 106.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EYE FEATURE, BUT A 231445Z AMSU-
B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LLCC HAS BEGUN TO
SEPARATE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, LEADING TO
PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN WHAT
THE IR IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, AND AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS OF T3.9 (59 KNOTS). TC 15S IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY AND
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA
OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. JUSTIFICATION
FOR CORRECTION: INCORRECT TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION MENTIONED
IN REMARKS SECTION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 25.3S 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.6S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.8S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 31.8S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 107.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 414 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WHICH IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 232101Z GPM 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS THAT THE LLCC HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ALL DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, AND AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS OF T3.9. TC 15S IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING
AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA IN A HIGH VWS
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC MARCUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_marcus_jtwc_advisories.htm
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