Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Season 2017-2018 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTPS21 PGTW 211830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 135.5E TO 13.2S 138.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S 135.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4S
136.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 135.9E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211208Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INVEST 94P HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT (28-30 CELSIUS) BOTH IN THE ARAFURA SEA AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WHERE INVEST 94P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER
NORTHWESTERN QUEENSLAND. HOWEVER, WITH FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221830Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI/211821ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 135.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 135.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.4S 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.1S 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.4S 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.0S 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.5S 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.9S 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.0S 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 135.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CAUSING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. A PARTIAL PASS FROM A 220054Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON THE
ASCAT PASS AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM
ADRM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (29-
30C). TC 16P IS BEING STEERED BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY
AT FIRST, THEN MORE RAPIDLY AS VWS DECREASES. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS AT TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A RANGE
OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO THE
FORECAST TRACK BUT SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUE A SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 211830).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.1S 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.5S 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.5S 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.9S 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.3S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.2S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.6S 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.7S 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 136.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE
BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ADRM,
COUPLED WITH A 220054Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF 30-35
KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (29-30C). TC 16P IS
BEING STEERED BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE STORM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE TURNING TO
THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY, SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN
MORE RAPIDLY AS VWS DECREASES. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 85
KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD, WITH
SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAPE OF YORK AND OTHER
MODELS TURNING IT BACK TO THE WEST AFTER COMING ASHORE IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THIS SPREAD IS LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z,
230900Z AND 231500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 10.7S 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.0S 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.5S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.0S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.3S 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.9S 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.8S 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 136.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING CONVECTION
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
221901Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD CIRCULATION. THE
CORRESPONDING 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE BEGINNING TO TAKE
HOLD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS HEDGED
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS) BASED ON THE RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A 221557Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STARK IMPROVEMENT IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AND EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE DUE TO A
POINT SOURCE ANALYZED JUST ABOVE THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE
EXTREMELY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS WITH NOTABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IN
THE ARAFURA SEA EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC 16P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A WEAK
RIDGE IS BUILDING JUST EAST OF TC 16S WHICH WILL SHIFT THE TRACK
INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARM WATERS WILL
FAVOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TC 16P IN THE NEAR TERM, REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THEREAFTER, TC 16P WILL BEGIN
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS LAND AND SLOWS DOWN AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF TC 16P AND SHIFT
THE TRACK WEST-SOUTHWARD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TC 16S WILL MAKE
LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 96 AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER THE CONTINENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
IMPROVEMENT, BUT A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE LEVEL
OF INFLUENCE THE EASTWARD RIDGE WILL HAVE IN THE SHORT TERM IS
UNKNOWN. THE MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR A TRACK MORE EASTWARD WHILE THE
GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR A WESTWARD TRACK KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER OPEN
WATER LONGER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED TOWARD THE GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A MORE PRONOUNCED EASTERN RIDGE,
HOWEVER, DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 136.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 136.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.9S 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.4S 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.0S 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.4S 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.6S 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.6S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.4S 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 137.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP BANDING CONVECTION RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER STRUGGLING TO FORM AN EYE. A 222116Z 37 GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON RECENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND ADRM. NEARBY SHIP
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAPE WESSEL INDICATE A SHARP INCREASE
IN SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
MSLP TO 997 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE DUE TO A POINT SOURCE
ANALYZED JUST ABOVE THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO
EXTREMELY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS WITH NOTABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IN
THE ARAFURA SEA EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC 16P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A
WEAK RIDGE IS BUILDING JUST EAST OF TC 16S WILL SHIFT THE TRACK
INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARM WATERS WILL
FAVOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TC 16P IN THE NEAR TERM, REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THEREAFTER, TC 16P WILL BEGIN
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS LAND AND SLOWS DOWN AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF TC 16P AND SHIFT
THE TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TC 16S WILL
MAKE LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 96 AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER THE CONTINENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
IMPROVEMENT, BUT A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE LEVEL
OF INFLUENCE THE EASTWARD RIDGE WILL HAVE IN THE SHORT TERM IS
UNKNOWN. THE MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR A TRACK MORE EASTWARD WHILE THE
GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR A WESTWARD TRACK KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER OPEN
WATER AND UNHINDERED BY LAND A BIT LONGER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS HEDGED TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A MORE
PRONOUNCED EASTERN RIDGE, HOWEVER, DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES THERE
IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z,
231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 10.6S 138.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 138.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.1S 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.6S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.0S 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.1S 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.0S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.5S 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.3S 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 138.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA, RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM
MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AND A PARTIAL 230607Z SSMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A CLEAR CENTER FEATURE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY FIX DATA FROM
CIMSS AND CIRA. TC 16S HAS TURNED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. STORM
STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, WITH DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING AROUND A DEVELOPING EYEWALL EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AROUND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE SOUTH EXERTS AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION. SLOW
FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE 72 TO 96 HOUR TIME FRAME AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITIONS TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WITH ACCELERATION WESTWARD LIKELY THEREAFTER. RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS TC 16S PASSES OVER
VERY WARM WATER IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
SUPPORTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36 AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. TC 16S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 AS
IT MOVES INLAND. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE POLEWARD TRACK SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72, BUT DIVERGE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED STEERING RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES
CLOSE TO THE MAJORITY SOLUTION AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH LANDFALL AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
006
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 139.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 139.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.2S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.8S 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.5S 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.2S 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.9S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.7S 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.7S 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 139.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 8 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
NORA HAS CEASED ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE, AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY, WITH THE SYSTEM STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN AN EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE INFRARED IMAGERY, AS
WELL AS A 231715 SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTING A WEAK
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE DISPLACED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST FROM WHERE
THE IR WOULD SUGGEST THE LLCC WOULD BE. THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUPPORTED
BY ANALYSIS OF RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE GOVE, AUSTRALIA RADAR SITE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 95 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 (102
KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM
CIMSS OF T5.0. TC 16P HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW GUINEA. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, INTENSITY
HAS PLATEAUED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, LIKELY DUE TO AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS WELL AS RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC
16P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AROUND TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT
ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER AND A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND TAU 72, TC 16P WILL
ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE STR BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT PERIOD OF
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 24, PEAKING AT 105
KNOTS, AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND MODERATE SUPPORTING UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 36, WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL
ACCELERATE THROUGH TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, LAND
INTERACTION AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 16P WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH TAU 24, BUT
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. NEARLY ALL MODELS INDICATE
A PERIOD OF SLOW MOVEMENT AROUND TAU 72 FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION
TOWARDS THE WEST, THE UNCERTAINTY BEING IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF
MOTION. HOWEVER, THE AFUM AND EGRR MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN
EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, MOVING THE SYSTEM INTO
THE CORAL SEA BY TAU 72. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.9S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.0S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.8S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.4S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.0S 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.8S 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.2S 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH TC NORA WEAKENED
THROUGH THE 0000Z HOUR, WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK, RAGGED EYE FEATURE
EVIDENT IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE MSI, AND RADAR FIX DATA FROM THE
WEIPA RADAR SITE. A 232207Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMED
THAT DEEP CONVECTION WAS LIMITED AT THAT TIME TO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT, WITH THE EYEWALL BEING OPEN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS FOR THIS WARNING,
BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND
AUTOMATED INTENSITY GUIDANCE OF T4.8 (84 KNOTS), HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DUE TO AN INCREASING TREND EVIDENT AT THE TIME OF THE FIX. TC
16P CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED OVER
EASTERN NEW GUINEA, THOUGH THE TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FLATTER THAN
ORIGINAL FORECAST, WITH A STRONGER EASTWARD COMPONENT THROUGH THE
00Z HOUR. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INTENSITY HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY
BUT IS ON AN INCREASING TREND. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE NER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, TC NORA IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL COL AREA BETWEEN THE NER, A
DEVELOPING STR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THE EQUATORWARD END OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROF TO THE SOUTH, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY IN
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA THROUGH TAU 72. IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC 16P WILL ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE STR
BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. WHILE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED, BY THE 00Z HOUR,
INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING WERE ALREADY BECOMING EVIDENT, AND SO A
SHORT PERIOD OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TAU
12, PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS, AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU
12 AND THROUGH TAU 36 SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 36, AS LAND INTERACTION AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT COMBINE, TC 16P WILL EXPERIENCE MORE RAPID
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTH GULF
OF CARPENTARIA BEFORE TAU 96 AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY
TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN, WITH THREE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS. THE AFUM AND EGRR MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE CORAL SEA,
WHILE THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE TRACKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH, MAKING LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST,
WHICH LIES WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK. DUE TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
=========================================================================
009
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 010
WTPS31 PGTW 241500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 141.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 141.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.5S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.2S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.6S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.9S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 141.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.6S 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.1S 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.3S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.4S 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 141.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO EXTENSIVE
INTERACTION WITH THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CIRCULATION FEATURE EVIDENT
IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS ABOVE AREA OBSERVATIONS THAT
ARE DISPLACED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND TERRAIN INHIBITED.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING OVER LAND. TC NORA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHERLY AS A
STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WILL BUILD AND COMPETE
FOR STEERING, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. LAND
INTERACTION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
TC 16P WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, SOUTH OF KOWANYAMA. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK DIRECTION HOWEVER THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD AFTER
TAU 24. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 142.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 142.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.6S 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 142.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM WEST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NOW OVER LAND, CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE FIXES AND LOCAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WHICH IS
SCALED LOWER FROM PREVIOUS ESTIMATES BASED ON LAND INTERACTION, AND
SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA, AUSTRALIA REPORTING
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KNOTS OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS SHIFTING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A MINIMUM MSLP OF 984 MB. TC 16P HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS WHILE OVER LAND REMAINING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS ANOTHER
COMPETING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO BUILD. THE REMNANTS OF TC
16P IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AS A POST TROPICAL LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS EVENTUALLY TRACKING WESTWARD AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE BUILDS.
THERE EXISTS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE REMNANTS OF 16P TO AGAIN TRACK
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA BEYOND TAU 48,
BUT OPPORTUNITY FOR REGENERATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_nora_jtwc_advisories.htm
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