Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
![]() Tropical Cyclone CYRIL Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20120206 09:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4S 178.8W TO 22.8S 169.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 178.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 178.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 178.1W, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY- CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 060516Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS TCB AND A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED QUICKLY SINCE CROSSING FIJI AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS AT NFFN PEAKED AT ONLY 15 KNOTS, SLP VALUES AS LOW AS 995MB WERE OBSERVED. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG THE TAIL-END OF A SHEAR LINE AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS POORLY INITIALIZED; HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 070930Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20120206 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060921Z FEB 12// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 175.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 175.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 20.6S 171.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 23.7S 166.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 26.7S 161.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 29.3S 155.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 174.5W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 11P HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL SYSTEM (ABOUT 120NM RADIUS) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060516Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. A 061152Z PARTIAL OCEANSAT IMAGE PROVIDES FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED QUICKLY AND SHOWS A STRONG, DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON IR IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30- 35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW AS WELL AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. TC 11P IS TRACKING RAPIDLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION POSITIONED EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THEREFORE, TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20-30 KNOTS SPEED OF ADVANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO GFS, GFDN, WBAR, UKMO AND ECMWF BUT IS IN EXCELLENT, TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS INCLUDING INCREASING, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH VALUES DECREASING BELOW 25C NEAR 25S LATITUDE. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO DISSPATE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 060921Z FEB 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 060930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20120207 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 172.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 24 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 172.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 23.4S 167.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 30 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 26.7S 162.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 31 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 29.8S 156.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 171.0W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (CYRIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITIONS WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 062355Z SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM LUPEPAU, A NEARBY ISLAND TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 11P IS 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF RAPIDLY INCREASING (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE VORTEX IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY OF A DEEPLY-ENTRENCHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS FURTHER INCREASES AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STR AXIS AND ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. TC CYRIL WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TRIPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; HENCE, THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20120207 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 003// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 23.0S 167.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 28 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 167.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 26.4S 161.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 31 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 29.3S 155.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 31 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 31.5S 149.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 165.9W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (CYRIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070720Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT TC 11P REMAINS A MIDGET TC WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 11P IS UNDER MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS IT RESIDES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. WHILE THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR TC CYRIL, ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM DUE TO SPEED DIVERGENCE, THE VWS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS AND OVERCOME THE BENEFITS OF GOOD DIVERGENCE. TC 11P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY OF A DEEPLY-ENTRENCHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STR, THEREBY INCREASING VWS. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND BELOW. TC CYRIL WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO TAU 36. BY TAU 48 THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE INCREASES WITH THE WBAR TRACKING AGAINST THE MAJORITY OF AIDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. ALL OTHER AIDS CONTINUE A SOUTHEAST TRACK WELL INTO THE MID-LATITUDES BUT TC 11P SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT TIME. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 36 WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS TO MAINTAIN CONGRUENT TRACK SPEEDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20120208 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 004// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 27.7S 161.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 37 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 065 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 161.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 31.0S 154.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 28.5S 159.4W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (CYRIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM SOUTH OF RAROTONGA, HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AT 37 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHALLOWER AND IS PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CYCLONE IS NOW DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG WESTERLIES IN AN AREA OF VERY STRONG (40-50 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DUE TO THE SEVERE VWS, TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy] | |
Document: tropical_cyclone_cyril.htm | Updated: 9 February 2012 |