Tropical
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![]() Tropical Cyclone ETHEL Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20120118 19:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 69.2E TO 17.7S 65.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181731Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 68.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 69.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 68.9E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING FROM THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS TRACKED FURTHER EAST AND IS SHOWING MARKED IMPROVEMENTS TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LLCC REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) BUT INCREASES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM TO MODERATE LEVELS (10 TO 20 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, DECREASING VWS, AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 191900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120119 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151851Z JAN 12// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 67.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 67.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.9S 66.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.6S 64.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 19.1S 63.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.7S 62.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.8S 62.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 27.1S 63.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 30.9S 68.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 67.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONTINUAL INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 30 CELSIUS AND BANDING INFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND A MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 07S BEGINNING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. IN THE LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST, INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SLOWING DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN TC 07S. BY TAU 96 FURTHER INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 181851Z JAN 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 181900). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120119 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 002// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 66.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 66.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.4S 65.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 19.0S 64.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.4S 63.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 21.7S 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.9S 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 28.9S 65.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 31.7S 71.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 66.1E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH A MILD DECREASE IN CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE SYSTEM CORE AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IS PRESENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEEPENING DIRECTLY OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE LATEST AMSU-B RADIAL CROSS SECTION REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 07S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE 30 DEGREES, AND ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 15 KNOTS, THE LATEST UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 07S IS UNDER A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. AS THE STORM TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EASE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. THE SYSTEM IS STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NEAR 21S 85E. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MASCARENE ISLANDS IS CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND PROVIDING AN OPENING TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THROUGH TAU 72, TC 07S WILL RIDE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND THEN FOLLOW THE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERLIES. GUIDANCE DIVERGES AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES INTO THE WESTERLIES, WITH INDIVIDUAL AIDS EVENLY BALANCED AROUND CONSENSUS. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS WBAR, WHICH CONTINUES A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. WBAR IS SLOWING CONSENSUS, THUS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO, BUT EAST OF CONSENSUS WITH FASTER ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WILL BEGIN NEAR TAU 72 AS TC 07S CRESTS THE RIDGE AXIS, BUT EXTENDED RANGE THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE PROCESS WILL NOT COMPLETE UNTIL TAU 120. TC 07S WILL MOVE INTO UNFAVORABLY COOLER WATERS NEAR 22 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE, JUST AFTER TAU 48. THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL COMPENSATE FOR THE FALLING HEAT CONTENT AND ALLOW THE STORM TO INTENSIFY ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEYOND THAT, HOWEVER, WITH PEAK INTENSITY COMING NEAR TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE COOLING WATERS WILL COUPLE WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE STORM. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT CROSSES 30 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120120 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 003// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 17.9S 65.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 65.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 19.3S 63.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.5S 63.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.0S 62.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.8S 62.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 27.6S 62.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 31.7S 68.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 34.4S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 64.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF TC 07S WITH BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS BASED ON A MIX OF DVORAK FIXES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE EQUATORWARD RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO PROVIDE AMPLE VENTILATION TO THE LLCC WITH AN IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TC 07S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, LOCATED TO THE EAST, DUE TO GREATER INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH STIFLING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DECREASING OUTFLOW, DECREASING SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 36. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 48 AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120120 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 004// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 64.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 64.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.7S 63.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.2S 63.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.8S 63.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 25.7S 63.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 29.6S 66.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 33.0S 74.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 64.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200520Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY ORGANIZED AND SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). PERSISTENT OVER-SHOOTING TOPS ARE OBSERVED DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC, AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSION IN THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. HOWEVER, AGENCY DVORAK ASSESSMENTS ARE HOLDING STEADY OR DROPPING SLIGHTLY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ASSESSMENTS OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. TC 07S IS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MASCARENE ISLANDS IS PROVIDING A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME IMPINGEMENT TO OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, BUT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED. TC 07S WILL RIDE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AS IT CRESTS THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THAT POINT, FALLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RISING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE STORM. THE STORM WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR TAU 48 AND THE WEAKENING TREND WILL ACCELERATE AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION INTO A GALE-FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120121 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 005// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 63.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 63.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.7S 63.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 24.6S 63.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 27.1S 64.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 29.9S 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 35.0S 76.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 63.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND MORE ELONGATED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 202238Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND, THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AS WELL AS A 202315Z SSMI IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36 AS IT BEGINS TO RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 07S WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26C). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120121 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 006// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 63.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 63.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 24.3S 64.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 26.6S 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 29.2S 66.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 31.3S 70.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 64.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED JUST EAST OF SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS COMMENCED RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STARTING TO BECOME UNCOUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, IT IS MAINTAINING A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 211146Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING, HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH DUE TO THE VWS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS FALLEN TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT ENTERS THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 07S WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26C). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AROUND TAU 24 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE JTWC TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120122 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 007// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 25.0S 64.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 64.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 28.2S 65.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 31.2S 68.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 34.2S 72.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 64.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 212142Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME DE-COUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS SHEARING SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07S IS NOW TRACKING INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC IN IR IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TC 07S HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120122 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 008// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 28.1S 65.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 65.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 31.0S 67.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 28.8S 65.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NOW COMPLETELY UNCOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION AND THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN ON EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE RECENT AMSU RADIAL CROSS SECTION PRODUCT REVEALS THAT TC 07S HAS IN FACT COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS NOW A COLD CORE CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING AND WEAKENING AS IT RECURVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 26 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_ethel.htm | Updated: 30 January 2012 |