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Tropical Cyclone ETHEL Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20120118 19:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 69.2E TO 17.7S 65.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181731Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 68.9E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
69.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 68.9E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING FROM THE
LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS TRACKED FURTHER EAST AND IS
SHOWING MARKED IMPROVEMENTS TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OVER THE LLCC REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) BUT INCREASES SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM TO MODERATE LEVELS (10 TO 20 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON INCREASING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, DECREASING VWS, AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120119 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151851Z JAN 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.9S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.6S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.1S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.7S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.8S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.1S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 30.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 67.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONTINUAL INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE
CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 30 CELSIUS AND BANDING INFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND A MID-LATITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 07S BEGINNING TO ENHANCE
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. IN THE LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST,
INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SLOWING DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN TC 07S. BY TAU 96 FURTHER INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 181851Z JAN 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 181900). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120119 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 002//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 66.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 66.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.4S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.0S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.4S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.7S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.9S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 28.9S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 31.7S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 66.1E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL)
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY ORGANIZED
CIRCULATION WITH A MILD DECREASE IN CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE SYSTEM CORE AND
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IS PRESENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEEPENING DIRECTLY OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE LATEST AMSU-B RADIAL CROSS
SECTION REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. TC 07S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE 30 DEGREES, AND ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 15 KNOTS, THE LATEST UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 07S IS UNDER A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. AS THE STORM TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTH, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EASE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. THE SYSTEM IS STEERING ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NEAR 21S 85E.
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MASCARENE ISLANDS IS CREATING A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND PROVIDING AN OPENING TO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THROUGH
TAU 72, TC 07S WILL RIDE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE AND THEN FOLLOW THE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERLIES. GUIDANCE
DIVERGES AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES INTO THE WESTERLIES, WITH
INDIVIDUAL AIDS EVENLY BALANCED AROUND CONSENSUS. THE LONE EXCEPTION
IS WBAR, WHICH CONTINUES A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. WBAR IS SLOWING
CONSENSUS, THUS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO, BUT EAST OF
CONSENSUS WITH FASTER ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION PROCESS WILL BEGIN NEAR TAU 72 AS TC 07S CRESTS THE RIDGE
AXIS, BUT EXTENDED RANGE THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE PROCESS WILL
NOT COMPLETE UNTIL TAU 120. TC 07S WILL MOVE INTO UNFAVORABLY COOLER
WATERS NEAR 22 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE, JUST AFTER TAU 48. THE
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL COMPENSATE FOR THE FALLING HEAT
CONTENT AND ALLOW THE STORM TO INTENSIFY ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEYOND
THAT, HOWEVER, WITH PEAK INTENSITY COMING NEAR TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72,
THE COOLING WATERS WILL COUPLE WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
THE STORM. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AS IT CROSSES 30 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120120 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 003//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.9S 65.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 65.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.3S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.5S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.0S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.8S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.6S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 31.7S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 34.4S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 64.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF TC 07S WITH
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS BASED ON A MIX OF DVORAK
FIXES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN THE EQUATORWARD RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO PROVIDE AMPLE
VENTILATION TO THE LLCC WITH AN IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
THE INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TC 07S
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
LOCATED TO THE EAST, DUE TO GREATER INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH STIFLING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DECREASING OUTFLOW, DECREASING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 36. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 48 AND IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120120 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 004//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 64.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 64.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.7S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.2S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.8S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 25.7S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 29.6S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 33.0S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 64.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200520Z ASCAT
IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY ORGANIZED AND SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). PERSISTENT OVER-SHOOTING TOPS ARE OBSERVED DIRECTLY
OVER THE LLCC, AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EXPANSION IN THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
HOWEVER, AGENCY DVORAK ASSESSMENTS ARE HOLDING STEADY OR DROPPING
SLIGHTLY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ASSESSMENTS OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. TC 07S IS ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MASCARENE ISLANDS IS
PROVIDING A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME IMPINGEMENT TO OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE, BUT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED. TC 07S
WILL RIDE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AS IT CRESTS THE RIDGE AXIS. AT
THAT POINT, FALLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RISING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE STORM. THE STORM WILL BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR TAU 48 AND THE WEAKENING
TREND WILL ACCELERATE AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION INTO
A GALE-FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120121 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 005//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 63.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 63.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.7S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.6S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 27.1S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 29.9S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 35.0S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 63.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT
WEAKENING IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND MORE ELONGATED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 202238Z
TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND, THE CURRENT INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
77 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AS WELL AS
A 202315Z SSMI IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TC 07S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36 AS IT BEGINS TO RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE
INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 07S WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER
TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26C). THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU
36 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER
EAST THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120121 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 006//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 63.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 63.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.3S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.6S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 29.2S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 31.3S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 64.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED JUST EAST OF SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS COMMENCED RECURVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STARTING TO BECOME
UNCOUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, IT IS MAINTAINING A
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 211146Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING, HOWEVER THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH DUE
TO THE VWS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS FALLEN TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE POSITION
IS BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC 07S IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT ENTERS THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 07S WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26C). THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AROUND TAU 24 AND
WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE JTWC TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
FURTHER EAST THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120122 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 007//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 25.0S 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 64.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 28.2S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 31.2S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 34.2S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 64.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
212142Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BECOME DE-COUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS
SHEARING SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07S IS NOW TRACKING INTO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC IN IR
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TC 07S HAS
BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
(FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120122 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 008//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 28.1S 65.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 65.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 31.0S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 28.8S 65.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S
(ETHEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NOW COMPLETELY UNCOUPLED FROM THE
CONVECTION AND THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN ON EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE RECENT AMSU RADIAL CROSS SECTION PRODUCT
REVEALS THAT TC 07S HAS IN FACT COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
AND IS NOW A COLD CORE CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING AND WEAKENING
AS IT RECURVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 26 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_ethel.htm | Updated: 30 January 2012 |