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Tropical Cyclone FUNSO Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS22 PGTW 20120118 19:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181851Z JAN 12//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 181900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0S 41.6E TO 18.9S 39.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181730Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 41.3E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0S
41.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 41.3E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES
TO CONSOLIDATE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. A RECENT 181730Z PGTW DVORAK FIX HAD CURRENT INTENSITY AT 30
KNOTS. SEA SURFACE CONDITIONS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL REMAIN VERY
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE EVIDENT OVER
THE CENTER, A MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191930Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 68.9E.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120119 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151921Z JAN 12//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 40.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 40.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.8S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.6S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.8S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.8S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.7S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.4S 37.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.2S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 40.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (EIGHT), LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 40.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 685 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
DEVELOPING. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS COOLING
CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER AND THE LATEST AMSUB RADIAL CROSS
SECTION REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A WARM MID-LEVEL ANOMALY. HOWEVER, A
190525Z SSMIS SERIES SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
30-35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ONLY
5 TO 10 KNOTS HIGHER THAN SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM 12 HOURS AGO, WHEN
THE CLOUD SIGNATURE WAS NOT NEARLY AS WELL-DEVELOPED AS THE CURRENT
IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UNIMPEDED RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND THE 190000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS
HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE REGION IS
APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 08S HAS BEEN EXHIBITING ERRATIC
MOVEMENT THUS FAR DUE TO WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME CLARITY TO SHORT TERM MOVEMENT, HOWEVER,
AND THERE EXISTS GOOD CONFIDENCE REGARDING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
THOUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU
48. THE NEAR AND MEDIUM RANGE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON CONSENSUS
AND SUPPORTED BY THE BETA ADVECTION MODEL. AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS AN
UNCOMFORTABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS EARLY STAGE, TC 08S
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MEANDER IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND MAY EVEN
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE EXTENDED RANGES. SUCH A SCENARIO IS
PLAUSIBLE DUE TO THE EXPECTED FORMATION OF TWO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGES. LONG-RANGE PROGS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONES, ONE OFF-SHORE NORTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR AND THE SECOND
OVER THE SOUTH AFRICA-MOZAMBIQUE BORDER. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK
THE STORM FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS
IN PREDICTING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE WESTERN
MOZAMIQUE CHANNEL AND THE CONTINENT RATHER THAN TRACKING TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS ABOVE THE
MAIN BODY OF GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO GFDN BASED ON THE FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT, THE REGION'S HISTORICAL PROPENSITY TOWARDS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AND GFDN'S SKILL AT CAPTURING SUCH SCENARIOS.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 181921Z
JAN 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 181930)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120119 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 40.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 40.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.8S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.4S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.8S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.4S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.0S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.5S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.1S 37.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 39.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 40.1E, APPROX-
IMATELY 630 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 08S HAS STEADILY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND
KNES INDICATING 45 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
WELL DEVELOPED RADIAL OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD. ADDITIONALLY, A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 08S HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND HAS BEEN ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE CONDITIONS IN THE REGION ARE
VERY FAVORABLE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR WILL REMAIN THE
STRONGEST INFLUENCE BUT WILL BE HINDERED BY ANOTHER DEVELOPING RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF MOZAMBIQUE EXTENDING TOWARDS
SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, WHICH EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT.
THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH MOZAMBIQUE THE INTENSITY WILL
PLATEAU BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72 TC 08S WILL BEGIN
TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER FROM MOZAMBIQUE INTO MORE FAVOR-
ABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FLOW. VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD SUPPORTING THE FORECASTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 200900Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120120 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 18.3S 39.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 39.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.8S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.2S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.6S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.9S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.4S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.0S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.6S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 39.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 39.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 595 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 08S HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A VISIBLE EYE
PRESENT. DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE
REPRESENTED A 75 KNOT SYSTEM. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE THAT IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN RADIAL OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A WELL DEVELOPED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 08S. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON A SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CURRENT
RIDGE STEERING TC 08S WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
LATITUDES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CAUSING TC 08S TO SLOW AND BEGIN
TURNING SOUTHWARD. A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF TC
08S WILL BUILD SLOWLY OVER MADAGASCAR STEERING THE SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72 A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL
BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF TC 08S AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE CAUSING A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS. BEYOND TAU 36
INTENSITY WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW MOVES EASTWARD. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER A REGION OF VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TC 08S
REMAINING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BUT GREATLY DIFFER IN TRACK
DIRECTIONS WITH THE CURRENT WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120120 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 38.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 38.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.6S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.8S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.0S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.1S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.8S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.6S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.4S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 38.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 38.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 655 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION HAS EASED AND THE DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE HAS FILLED
FOR THE TIME BEING, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTS
IN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM, WITH ESPECIALLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION
SHOWING ALONG THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. A 200513Z SSMIS IMAGE
INDICATES THAT THE THICKEST CONVECTIVE BANDING IS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 75
KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. DESPITE THE FLAT INTENSITY TREND
OVER THE SHORT TERM, THE SYSTEM REMAINS PRIMED FOR ANOTHER SURGE IN
DEVELOPMENT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS REVEAL A WEDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 DEGREES, AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS AN ABSOLUTELY SPECTACULAR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THICK
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE BANDS CAN BE OBSERVED STREAMING INTO
THE DEEP INTERIOR OF THE CONTINENT BEFORE BEING DRAWN INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND BENDING OVER THE RED SEA AND SAUDI PENINSULA.
THE 200000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CAPTURES A SINGULAR
OUTFLOW POINT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), PLACING THE LLCC UNDER A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WITH
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND A
KNOWN PROPENSITY FOR SYSTEMS IN THE REGION TO UNDERGO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RISING WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL
RUN, AND TC 08S WILL REMAIN IN THAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
LONG TERM. MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW BECAUSE TC 08S EXISTS IN A FICKLE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. NONETHELESS, TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONGEALED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND THERE IS IMPROVED
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE. NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOW S-SHAPED PATTERN WITH A GRADUAL MOVEMENT
TO THE SOUTH. TC 08S EXISTS BETWEEN TWO STEERING RIDGES, ONE OFF-
SHORE NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR AND THE OTHER CENTERED IN AN ANTICYCLONE
OFF-SHORE OF THE MOZAMBIQUE-SOUTH AFRICA BORDER. TC 08S IS
EFFECTIVELY TRAPPED BETWEEN THE TWO. CURRENTLY, THE NORTHERN
ANTICYCLONE IS NUDGING THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE CONTINENT, BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO RETRACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE CONTINENT WILL THEN BEGIN EASING THE SYSTEM BACK INTO THE
CHANNEL. NEAR TAU 72, THE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER MADAGASCAR WILL BUILD
AGAIN AND RESUME DRIVING TC 08S TO THE SOUTHWEST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH 25 DEGREES SOUTH
LATITUDE BUT LONG RANGE PROGS INDICATE A SUBTLE BUT STEADY INCREASE
IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 08S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER IT MAKES
THE BEND TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120120 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 37.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 37.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.6S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.1S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.5S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.0S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.1S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.1S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.6S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 37.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM NORTHEAST OF
MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 08S HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION OVER LAND (ABOUT 50-60 NM WEST OF THE
CENTER) HAS STRUGGLED. DESPITE THE WEAK LAND INTERACTION, A 201748Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND STRONG EYEWALL
CONVECTION AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. TC
08S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND HAS
MAINTAINED A SLOW TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST (NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR
BETWEEN TC 08S AND 07S) AND POLEWARD (EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR JUST
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR). THE RECENT 500MB ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS BROAD
TROUGHING OVER SOUTH AFRICA. AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO
TURN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER MADAGASCAR AFTER TAU 36 AS TC 07S RE-CURVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE A RE-CURVE MECHANISM BUT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE STR TO RE-BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE BACK
TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
ALL MODELS INDICATING AN 'S' SHAPED TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
(ETHEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120121 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 37.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 37.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.1S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.5S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.0S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.6S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.0S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.0S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.6S 36.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 37.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND NOW HAS A WELL DEFINED 8 NM DIAMETER
EYE. DESPITE ITS PROXIMITY TO THE AFRICAN CONTINENT (APPROXIMATELY
25 NM), LAND INTERACTION IS HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT. ADDITIONALLY, AS
TC 08S TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD BACK OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY,
PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS. A 210501Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING AND VIGOROUS EYEWALL CONVECTION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. TC 08S
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK, YET COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND HAS
BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT IS CONSTRAINED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND POLEWARD. THE RECENT 500MB ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER SOUTH AFRICA.
AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER MADAGASCAR AFTER TAU 24 NOW THAT TC 07S (ETHEL) HAS BEGUN TO RE-
CURVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE A RE-CURVE MECHANISM FOR TC 08S. FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
PASSAGE, THE STR SHOULD RE-BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS. IN TURN, THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE
BACK TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, HOWEVER THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW
IN THIS WEAK ENVIRONMENT WITH SEVERAL COMPETING FACTORS. DESPITE THE
FORECAST COMPLEXITY, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO, HOWEVER THE NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST
ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH MAY START TO MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND PREVENT TC 08S FROM MAKING LANDFALL. THIS
FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND
220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120121 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 38.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 38.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.4S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.9S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.8S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.8S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.3S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.1S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.1S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 38.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. IR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, OVER MOZAMBIQUE. THEREFORE, DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED TO 4.0 (PGTW) TO 4.5 (KNES), HOWEVER, THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES REMAIN HIGH AT 5.0 TO 5.5 AND MORE
ACCURATELY REFLECT THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY. THIS FORECAST INDICATES
AN INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE CI ESTIMATES. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY (MI) SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. IN PARTICULAR, A 210501Z SSMIS IMAGE (SMALL MI EYE
FEATURE AT 18.0S 37.7E) AND A 211537Z CORIOLIS IMAGE (SMALL MI EYE
FEATURE AT 18.0S 37.9E) CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED
TRACKING EASTWARD AND HAS RETAINED A STRONG LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. TC
08S IS, THEREFORE, LIKELY TO RE-INTENSIFY QUICKLY AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRACK AWAY FROM LAND. TC 08S REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FILL AND
TRANSIT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A RE-
CURVE MECHANISM. AFTER THIS TROUGH RAPIDLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL RE-BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING A
SHORT-TERM WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE UNTIL A DEEPER, STRONGER
TROUGH RE-CURVES THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 120. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 THEN DIVERGES IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE RE-CURVE TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
(ETHEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120122 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 38.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 38.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.1S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.8S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.6S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.6S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.4S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.8S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 25.2S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 38.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM NORTHEAST OF
MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 08S IS MAINTAINING ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE
REASONABLY WELL DESPITE ITS CONTINUED PROXIMITY TO THE AFRICAN
CONTINENT AND ITS SLOW FORWARD PROGRESS. DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO FORM OVER
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND WRAP INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 08S IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), HOWEVER THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL REMAINS STRONG. A 220621Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION, HOWEVER AN SSMIS IMAGE A FEW HOURS
EARLIER STILL SHOWED A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE AND LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY NOTED ABOVE
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. AS TC 08S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK AWAY FROM LAND AND
OVER THE OPEN WATER OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WHERE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS, IT IS EXPECTED
TO RE-INTENSIFY. ANIMATED SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE CURRENT STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TO NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH OF TC 08S. THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AFTER TAU 24, ALLOWING TC 08S TO TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TAU 96 UNTIL A DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
AND FINALLY BEGINS TO RECURVE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS REVERSE-S TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72 THEN DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO DIFFERENCES
IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120122 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 39.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 39.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.2S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.1S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.1S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.1S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.5S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.1S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.9S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 39.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM NORTHEAST OF
MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS AWAY FROM LAND. CURRENT IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL CDO
FEATURE (APPROXIMATELY 70-90 NM DIAMETER) WITH A DEVELOPING, WEAK
EYE. A 221724Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND, BASED ON THE IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION, THE PEAK INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS AND
MOVED EARLIER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TO TAU 24-36. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY TRANSITS SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE STR RE-BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SEPARATED INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS WITH UKMO, GFDN AND ECMWF
SUPPORTING A SLOWER TRACK AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS. THE OTHER CLUSTER, COMPOSED OF GFS, NOGAPS AND WBAR, SHOWS A
FASTER TRACK WITH RE-CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. ANALYSIS OF MODEL FIELDS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS TRACK IS UNLIKELY. FIRST,
GFS IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO THE STR, WHICH IT IS
BUILDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. SECOND, NOGAPS DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH,
WHICH INDUCES A RAPID RE-CURVE. THIS DEEP TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT WEST
OF SOUTH AFRICA; IMAGERY INDICATES A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WITH
RIDGING OVER SOUTH AFRICA, THEREFORE, THE NOGAPS SCENARIO IS DEEMED
UNLIKELY. TC 08S IS STILL EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE BUT THIS IS MORE
LIKELY WELL AFTER TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120123 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 39.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 39.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.1S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.1S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.0S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.8S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.7S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.3S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.2S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 39.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTHEAST OF
MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC
08S CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ITS ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE WITH A CLOUD
FILLED EYE AND INCREASING SYMMETRY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AFRICAN CONTINENT. A 230230Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS THE INNER CORE HAS
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
VALUES OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW DEPICTED IN
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE AND FIXES
ON THE INFRARED EYE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
NOW ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY TRACK
SOUTHWARD, THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER TAU 48 AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH BECOMES THE MORE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM. DUE TO THE COMPLEX AND COMPETING STEERING
MECHANISMS, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE TRACK SOLUTION.
UKMO AND ECMWF INDICATE A SLOW CYCLONICALLY CURVED TRACK WITH
POSSIBLE RECURVATURE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE
NOGAPS, GFDN AND WBAR INDICATE A FASTER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
THAT QUICKLY RECURVES THE STORM INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
FINALLY THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH GFS
UNREALISTICALLY TURNS THE STORM MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
MOZAMBIQUE IN THE EARLY TAUS, IT IS MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS OVERALL. THE MODELS INDICATING A FAST
RECURVE SCENARIO FORECAST A STRONG TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND TAU
48 WHEREAS THE SLOW SCENARIO SOLUTIONS FORECAST A WEAKER, NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WHICH HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON THE STR ALLOWING TC 08S TO
CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE COAST. THE LATER PHILOSOPHY IS MORE IN
LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC
ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THAT RECURVATURE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST RANGE. THIS FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD
THE ECWMF /UKMET /AVN SOLUTIONS AND DEPARTS FROM CONSENSUS AFTER TAU
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120123 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 39.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 39.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.6S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.0S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.9S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.8S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 26.1S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 28.5S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 31.7S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 39.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN APPROXIMATELY 12NM WIDE EYE AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO RE-
INTENSIFY. A 231504Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS STRONG BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND RELATIVELY THINNER, MULTIPLE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION WITH MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 5-10
KNOTS, VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AS
DEPICTED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE BETWEEN 28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH A POCKET OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
CURRENTLY UNDER THE LLCC. TC FUNSO IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS BY
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THIS STEERING PATH
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. BY TAU 48, TC 08S SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-
CURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM
THE WEST INFLUENCES THE TRACK MOTION BY CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN THE
STEERING RIDGE. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES BY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AND THEREFORE BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAUS 96-120,
TC FUNSO SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FORECAST DIFFERS FROM THE
PREVIOUS DUE TO THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO AND EVENTUAL EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOW BEGUN TO COME IN-LINE
WITH THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM
MORE QUICKLY INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH SHORTLY. THIS FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND MODEL
CONSENSUS AND PORTRAYS THE SLOWER RE-CURVE SCENARIO PRODUCED BY THE
SECOND, DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120124 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 39.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 39.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.5S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.4S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.1S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.8S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.8S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 26.3S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 30.9S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 39.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM
MAY BE BEGINNING AN EXPECTED TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED 11 NM EYE FEATURE WITH SOME EROSION OF
THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD FIELDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INHIBITED
CONVECTION IS ALSO REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS A
REGION OF SHARP SUBSIDENCE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. A PARTIAL
240350Z SSMIS IMAGE SUPPORTS THIS, SHOWING A GAP IN THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. OTHER THAN THE SUBSIDENT
AREA, WHICH IS DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM, THE
OUTFLOW SITUATION IS PRIMED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AROUND THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM, AND THE 240000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A SINGULAR OUTFLOW POINT DIRECTLY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A PERSISTENT AND EXTREMELY WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW
CHANNEL CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN ABUNDANCE OF VENTING INTO THE
INTERIOR OF THE CONTINENT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS CONFIRM
THAT THE ENTIRE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS FILLED WITH DEEP MOISTURE, AND
THE 29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON UNANIMOUS
DVORAK ASSESSMENTS OF 115 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. A 240215Z
ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS THAT THERE ARE INORDINATELY WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
GALES OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 08S IS BEING NUDGED SOUTH BY A
WELL-DEVELOPED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER MADAGASCAR.
THERE IS ALSO AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PROTRUDING FROM
OVER THE CONTINENT, ALONG THE 23RD LATITUDE, INTO THE CHANNEL. THE
STORM REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES WITH THE ONLY AVENUE
FOR MOVEMENT BEING SOUTHWARD. TRACK GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN, INDICATING SLOW MOVEMENT
SOUTHWARDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS, THEN ACCELERATION TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. AS TC 08S APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE CHANNEL, WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRAW THE
SYSTEM INTO THE MID-LATITUDES AND EXERT INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. THE INCREASING SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER
WATERS WILL BEGIN A DISSIPATION TREND SOUTH OF THE 25TH LATITUDE. AS
THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES OUT OF THE CHANNEL IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (XTT)
INTO A GALE FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW. LONG RANGE THICKNESS PROGS
INDICATE THE XTT PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z AND 242100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120124 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 21.8S 38.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 38.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.5S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.2S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.7S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.6S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 26.5S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 29.6S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 35.9S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 38.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN APPROXIMATELY 09NM WIDE EYE AS THE SYSTEM HAS PORTRAYED
CLASSIC TROCHOIDAL MOTION. A 241451Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE
DEEPEST NEAR EYEWALL CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, WHICH IS ENABLING THE WOBBLING MOTION MENTIONED ABOVE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EVIDENT EYE IN IR WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
102 KNOTS (KNES/FMEE) TO 115 KNOTS (PGTW). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SELF-INDUCED MESO-ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WHICH IS PROVIDING AMPLE OUTFLOW ALOFT WHILE MAINTAINING LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE SEEMS TO BE CONTINUED
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE SOUTH AS TROUGHING IS CURRENTLY OVER
THAT AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS BEEN
DEGRADED AS THE LINKAGE TO TROUGHING LOCATED FARTHER TO THE EAST HAS
WEAKENED. TC 08S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS IT SHOULD SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS
A POSSIBLE BRIEF CONNECTION WITH THE TRANSITORY TROUGHING TO THE
SOUTH ENGAGES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE TILL ABOUT 25 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. AFTER
TAU 24, TC FUNSO SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARDS AS A
DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH THEREBY DEFORMING
THE STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SPEED UP. THIS
TROUGHING SHOULD BRING WITH IT INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
HELP TO WEAKEN THE CONVECTION AND INTENSITY. BY TAU 96, TC 08S
SHOULD BEGIN TO FULLY INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TAU 120 SHOULD MARK THE COMPLETION
OF THE TRANSITION AS THE 500MB HEIGHT FIELDS BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE 576 DECAMETER HEIGHTS. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITORY TRACK. THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE GFS AND EGRR WHICH
INITIALLY TRACK THE LLCC MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS DUE TO A STRONGER
INFLUENCE OF A FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FORECAST FAVORS
THE MAIN GROUPING OF AIDS AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IN THE EARLY FORECAST TO OFFSET THE FASTER TRACKS OF THE
NOGAPS AND GFDN AND THEN FASTER IN THE LATER FORECAST TO BE MORE IN-
LINE WITH THE FAST TRACK SPEEDS OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITING
SYSTEM AND ENDS UP NEAR MOST OF THE MODEL AIDS DURING THAT TIME.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120125 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 22.7S 38.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 38.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.3S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.9S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.8S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 25.8S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 27.4S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 30.9S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 36.6S 45.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 38.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE COMPLETION OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
WITH A 15 NM EYE. A 250338Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE EYEWALL
WEAKENING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, HOWEVER MSI IS SHOWING
IMPROVEMENT OF THE EYEWALL OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL DEFINED EYE IN MSI. INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW INDICATING 120 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SELF-INDUCED MESO-ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PROVIDING AMPLE OUTFLOW ALOFT WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND THE LOSS OF OUTFLOW INTO
TROUGHING LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF TC 08S. RADIAL OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE
IMPROVING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 08S CONTINUES TO
TRACK SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE UNTIL TC 08S REACHES ABOUT 25
DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. INCREASING INTERACTION WITH MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND TAU
96 AND WILL BE COMPLETED BY TAU 120. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE INITIAL 36
HOURS BUT INCREASES TRACK SPEED IN LATER TAUS TO BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF A SYSTEM UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120125 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 015//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 23.4S 38.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 38.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 24.1S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.8S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 25.6S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 26.5S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 28.1S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 31.4S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 34.8S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 38.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A 20-NM EYE AND EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. BASED ON A 251604Z CORIOLIS IMAGE, THE SYSTEM IS
STILL GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS CLEARLY DEPICTED. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 08S HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALTHOUGH A DEFINITE WOBBLE IS
EVIDENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KNOTS
AND WAS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 6.0
(115 KNOTS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED EYE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 08S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE INTO
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TO ACCELERATE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AFTER TAU 96. AT THIS TIME, TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 72. THIS FORECAST FAVORS ECMWF
AND IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFF-SET THE
UKMO MODEL, WHICH DEPICTS A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 THEN SLOW
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120126 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 016//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 24.0S 39.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 39.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.6S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 25.3S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 26.1S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 27.1S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 30.0S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 34.0S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 38.7S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 39.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A 25-NM EYE,
HOWEVER THE HORIZONTAL EXTENT HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS WITH DECREASING OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. ANIMATED SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IMPINGING ON THE OUTFLOW. DESIPITE THIS, TC
08S STILL HAS EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. BASED ON A 260543Z
SSMIS IMAGE, THE SYSTEM IS STILL GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS CLEARLY DEPICTED. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY WAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 100 KNOTS AND WAS BASED
ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102
KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. TC 08S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE INTO
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TO ACCELERATE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE DEGRADED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
SHOULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 48 AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AT THIS
TIME, TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY
TAU 96 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OUTLIER BEING GFS WHICH DEPICTS THE
STEERING RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING IT TO
TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARDLY IN THE EARLY TAUS. THIS FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN AND TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE GFS
MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(IGGY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120126 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 017//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 25.1S 39.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S 39.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 26.1S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 27.0S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.1S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 30.1S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 34.1S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 36.2S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 39.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST
OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A 30-NM ROUND EYE AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. BASED ON A 261546Z CORIOLIS IMAGE, THE
SYSTEM IS STILL GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS CLEARLY DEPICTED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS
INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS BASED ON THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND
WAS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 6.0 (115 KNOTS).
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. TC 08S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND RE-
CURVES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 48. NEAR TAU 48,
TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST TRACK,
ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST FAVORS ECMWF AND IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120127 09:00z
MSGID/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 018//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 25.9S 39.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 39.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 27.0S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.3S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 30.4S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 32.3S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 35.0S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 39.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A 30-NM ROUND EYE AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, HOWEVER THE EYE IS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE RAGGED. A 270531Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS BEGINNING OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE EYEWALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND ANIMATED SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 BASED ON THE KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS, WHICH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THAT THE WIND FIELD IS SLOW TO ADJUST TO THE DECREASING CONVETION.THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 08S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND RECURVES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 24. NEAR TAU 36, TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST TRACK, ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST FAVORS ECMWF AND IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110127 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 019//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 26.8S 40.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 40.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.5S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 30.6S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 32.6S 45.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 34.3S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 40.6E.
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 39.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AN EYE THAT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE RAGGED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE EYEWALL. A 271802Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS BEGINNING OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE EYEWALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND ANIMATED SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 08S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND RE-CURVES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 12. NEAR TAU 24, TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST TRACK, ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST FAVORS ECMWF AND IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110128 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 28.1S 41.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 41.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 30.5S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 32.3S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 34.2S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 28.7S 41.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN OF THE EYEWALL FEATURE PRESENT AT THE 271800Z FORECAST.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO ELONGATE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND ARE SHEARING AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PGTW LOCATION FIX. TC 08S HAS SEEN AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS TRACKING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL BE COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120128 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 021//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 31.0S 43.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 31.0S 43.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 33.2S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 31.6S 44.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING AND ELONGATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 130NM FROM THE CENTER. A 281749Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A COMPLETE EROSION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC AS THE FLOW ENTRAINS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES CENTER FIXES AND THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNES.
RECENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LLCC TO BE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY UNDER VERY STRONG (40-50 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AT AN UNFAVORABLE 24 DEGREES CELSIUS.
RECENT AMSU CROSS SECTIONS SHOW AN INCREASING NEUTRAL WARM CORE ANOMALY IN THE UPPER-LEVELS AND AN INCREASING WARM CORE ANOMALY IN THE LOWER-LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC FUNSO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK VERY FAST INTO THE POLEWARD WESTERLY FLOW AND BE COMPLETELY EXTRA-TROPICAL IN 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI- TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_funso.htm | Updated: 8 February 2012 |