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Tropical Cyclone HILWA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone HILWA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20120213 16:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1S 96.6E TO 13.0S 86.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131130Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 96.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
100.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 96.1E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST OF
COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 131209Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC. RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS ISLAND SHOW WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AT 20 KNOTS AND 1006 MB. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES INDICATE 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED A FEW DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141600Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120214 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 90.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 90.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.2S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.8S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.4S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.5S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.5S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.6S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 89.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1130 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED AS THE PREVIOUS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS CONSOLIDATED
INTO TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS TREND, WITH A 140321Z AMSU-B COLOR COMPOSITE
REFLECTING THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT TC 13S IS IN AN AREA OF 05-10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS. ANIMATED SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TC
13S HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSU-B IMAGE AS WELL AS THE PGTW AND KNES FIXES. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, AND IS AN AVERAGE OF THE
PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY. TC
13S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF A WELL
ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP THE
SYSTEM IN A LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT AND ALONG A NEARLY CONSTANT PATH OF
29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEARLY CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS NEAR
TAU 96. THE CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO NOGAPS,
GFS, GFDN AND WBAR; HOWEVER, THESE AIDS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TRACK DIRECTION AND SPEED. THE FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, AND THEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THEREAFTER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 131551ZFEB 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120214 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 87.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 87.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.1S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.7S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.3S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.9S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.8S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.7S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.3S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 87.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH IMPROVED BANDING STRUCTURES OBSERVED IN A 141554Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
CONSOLIDATION OF DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 13S
IS TRACKING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT ALONG THE
FORECASTED TRACK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S IS LOCATED
IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS ENHANCING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE, WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VWS. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED DRAMATICALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SHOWING A
SHARPER SOUTHWESTERN TRACK THAN DEPICTED IN THIS FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS FURTHER NORTH THAN ALL AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH LOSES TC 13S AFTER TAU
36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S
(GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120215 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 85.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 85.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.8S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.4S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.3S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.0S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.9S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.2S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.8S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 84.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED, HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
HAS BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE. A MOSAIC OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, WITH IMPROVED BANDING
STRUCTURES EVIDENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGREEABLE
DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 13S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 13S HAS DEMONSTRATED A RATE
OF INTENSIFICATION SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST. ANIMATED
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE MOVING
OVER THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST, IMPEDING THE OUTFLOW ON THE
EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AT A LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE
SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND
LOW VWS. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW HAS TWO DISTINCT SOLUTIONS: NOGAPS, GFDN
AND WBAR TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHILE GFS, EGRR, AND ECMWF TAKE THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD DUE TO A STRONGER STR. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK
PERSISTENCE AND THE ANALYZED STRENGTH OF THE STR, THE FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THE WESTWARD TRACK SOLUTION, AND IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120215 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 004//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.1S 83.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 83.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.5S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.0S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.7S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.3S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.6S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.8S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.1S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 83.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. A 12-HOUR ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A DEEPENING COLD DENSE OVERCAST WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 151535Z ASCAT
PASS OUTLINING A TIGHT AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH PERIPHERAL WIND BARBS OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS 05 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IT IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). A SECONDARY STR, CURRENTLY ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR WILL ASSUME STEERING BY TAU 48 WITH VERY MINIMAL EFFECT
TO THE STORM MOTION. TC 13S WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS VWS REMAINS
LOW AND RADIAL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF
WBAR THAT IS DEFLECTING THE VORTEX MORE POLEWARD AFTER TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120216 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 005//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 81.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 81.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.0S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.9S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.5S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.1S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.3S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.6S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.3S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 81.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LONG, LINEAR CONVERGENT BAND
TO THE NORTHEAST. A 160421Z ASCAT BULL'S-EYE IMAGE SHOWS THE WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH 45-50 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45-55 KNOTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE TIMELY
ASCAT IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 13S HAS NOW
MOVED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS THEREFORE EXPERIANCING
WEAKER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAN 12
HOURS AGO. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS NOT THAT GREAT THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
ENHANCED BY VENTING INTO THE WESTERLIES. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO
THE SOUTHWEST IS ALSO PROVIDING SOME PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TC 13S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). A SECONDARY STR,
CURRENTLY ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR WILL ASSUME STEERING BY
TAU 48 WITH VERY MINIMAL EFFECT TO THE STORM MOTION. TC 13S WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS VWS REMAINS LOW AND OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF WBAR THAT IS DEFLECTING THE VORTEX MORE
POLEWARD AFTER TAU 24. THERE IS SOME FORECAST TRACK UNCERTAINTY
DURING TAUS 96-120 DUE TO THE ECMWF, GFDN, AND GFS PORTRAYING A MORE
POLEWARD DIP. THE OFFCIAL FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS UNTIL TAU 72 WHERE IT THEN LAYS RIGHT OF CONSENSUS, AND
SLOWER, TO OFFSET THE SHARP POLEWARD TURN DEPICTED BY THE WBAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120216 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 006//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.1S 80.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 80.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.6S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.2S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.8S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.6S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.1S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.7S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.4S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 80.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED AS CONVECTION WEAKENED AND
STRAYED SLOWER THAN THE STORM MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH. A SECONDARY STR, CURRENTLY ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR,
WILL ASSUME STEERING AT MID-TAUS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
TRACK. WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING UNCHANGED, TC 13S
WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO THE EXTENDED TAUS WHERE IT
WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE POLEWARD. THE INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE
WESTERLIES WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST
WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND
172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120217 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 007//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 80.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 80.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.7S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.4S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.2S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.1S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.0S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.7S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 23.7S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 80.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MAINTAINING FLARES OF
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDING STREAMING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM
THE 170401Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B IMAGE, AND PERSISTENCE OF OBSERVED SLOW
TRACK SPEEDS OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 13S HAS MOVED A FEW
DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THIS HAS CAUSED AN
INCREASE IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS
CLEARLY SHOWS A SHARP LINE OF UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TRANSITORY TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
STRUGGLE DURING THE LAST 12-18 HOURS. HOWEVER, RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING ON ITS
EASTWARD TRANSIT AND MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CAN BE SEEN BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. TC 13S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS VWS
EASES AND OUTFLOW INCREASES. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO REACH PEAK
INTENSITY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES. BY TAU 96-120, TC 13S SHOULD
CONTINUE ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR ON A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK THAT WILL BRING IT INTO DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOWERING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND INCREASING VWS FROM
WESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FORECAST WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. THEREFORE, THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS UP TO TAU
96-120 WHERE IT LAYS SLIGHTLY INSIDE AND SLOWER DURING THE POLEWARD
RE-CURVE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120217 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 008//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 79.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 79.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.7S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.5S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.3S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.1S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.0S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 25.2S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 31.1S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 78.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1360 NM EAST OF LA
REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGEY SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION PERSISTS AROUND A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON LOOPING IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED BASED
ON A LACK OF STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PAST 12
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS BUILDING TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. TC 13S IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP LAYER
STR AND HAS RECENTLY SHIFTED TO A SOUTHWEST TRACK AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE STR. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
EASTWARD ALLOWING THE STR TO BUILD BACK IN, SHIFTING THE TRACK BACK
MORE WESTWARD AROUND TAU 24. A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE, CAUSING A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP, SHIFTING THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST BY TAU 72. THIS WEAKNESS WILL SHIFT TC 13S TO A SOUTHWARD
TRACK INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. TRACK SPEED WITH STRUGGLING LLCC
ORGANIZATION, AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WILL LEAD TO SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72, INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO WEAKENING BY TAU 120. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAVOR OF THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120218 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 009//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 77.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 77.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.5S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.3S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.1S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.2S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.6S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 27.9S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 33.0S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 76.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 665 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BECOMING
MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON AN 180340Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE AS WELL AS THE ANIMATED MSI
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 13S IS APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN REGION OF LOW (05-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM, RESULTING IN SOME IMPINGEMENT ON THE RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER
THAT SEMICIRCLE. TC 13S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FOR
APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE VWS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BETWEEN 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS, TC 13S IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS
AROUND TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AND OUTFLOW IS
ENHANCED. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE A CYCLONIC TRACK AROUND THE STR
AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BETWEEN TAU
72-96 AS SSTS DROP AND INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS.
THE ETT WILL BE COMPLETED BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH A TIGHT SPREAD RANGING
BETWEEN WBAR ON THE POLEWARD SIDE AND ECMWF ON THE EQUATOR EDGE OF
THE PACKAGE. AS THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY,
THIS TRACK IS IN LINE WITH BOTH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS JUST
SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS, WHICH WEIGHTS THE ECMWF SOLUTION MORE
THAN THE WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S
(GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120218 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 010//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 74.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 74.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.7S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.5S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.4S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.6S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.5S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 29.6S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 34.9S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 74.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1105 NM EAST OF LA
REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
IN THE ORGANIZATION OF TC 13S OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. FLARING
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
BANDING FEATURES THAN WERE PRESENT 12 HOURS AGO. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH THE CURRENT
INTENSITY BASED ON THE ASSOCIATED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 13S. POOR UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS
BEEN THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM. TC 13S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
STR WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 36, WHEN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW TC 13S TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW
TC 13S TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, MAINTAINING
THROUGH TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72 TC 13S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT SHIFTS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 96 ETT WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED WITH TC
13S TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STR. ETT WILL BE
COMPLETED BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST, WITH ALL AIDS INDICATING RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND
192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120219 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 012//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 71.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 71.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.1S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.0S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.5S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.0S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 27.3S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 33.0S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 38.7S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 71.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM EAST OF PORT
LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 13S
MAINTAINING INTENSITY, WITH THE MORE INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION
DOES EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 190110Z CORIOLIS IMAGE
INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS CURVED AND ABUNDANT, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES BUT IS SUPPORTED BY THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD VENTING TO THE EAST ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPINGEMENT TO OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT EXISTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
AND THE 29 DEGREE ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE 190000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS TC 13S IN A MODERATELY DIFFLUENT REGION
JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THIS STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE, AND WILL BEGIN CURVING INCREASINGLY POLEWARD
BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THE FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.
PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR NEAR THE 25TH LATITUDE AS THE SYSTEM
CRESTS THE RIDGE AXIS. THICKNESS AND H500 PROGS INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO A VERY SLOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS
BEGINNING NEAR TAU 72, YET WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT DOES SO,
DROPPING TO BELOW TC STRENGTH JUST AFTER TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND
200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120219 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 013//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 69.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 69.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.9S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.6S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.3S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.6S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.5S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 37.6S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 68.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST OF PORT
LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH A BAND OF WEAKER CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION
OF ANIMATED IR IMAGERY AND FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGESTING A SLIGHT WEAKENING
OF THE LLCC, AND A 190500Z ASCAT PASS THAT INDICATED THE STRONGEST
WINDS WERE BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. AS
THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT SINCE
THE 0500Z TIMEFRAME, THIS SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S REMAINS NORTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING MODERATE DIVERGENT FLOW
OVER THE LLCC AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (05-10 KNOTS). TC
13S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WITH ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. ALTHOUGH TC 13S HAS RECENTLY SEEN A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND, IMPROVING OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE
STR AXIS AND FAVORABLE SSTS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP THE SYSTEM THROUGH
TAU 24. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, IN ASSOCIATION WITH TC
12S TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST, WILL WEAKEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ANTICYCLONE BY TAU 36, BRINGING THE TRACK OF TC 13S SOUTHWARD.
AS TC 13S MOVES SOUTH OF THE STR AXIS, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING
SSTS WILL STIFLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN. INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AROUND TAU 48 WILL START THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
PROCESS. TC 13S WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AS THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE STEERING RIDGE ENHANCE THE GRADIENT FLOW
BEYOND TAU 48. ETT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120220 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 014//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 65.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 65.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.5S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.2S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.7S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.4S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 31.6S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 65.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST OF PORT
LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THE TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS THIS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND A 200440Z AMSU-B IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, AND
IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25-35 KNOTS AND THE
IMPROVED MICROWAVE SIGNATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WHICH IS
PROVIDING MODERATELY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW OVER THE LLCC AND LOW (05-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 13S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH ALONG-
TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RECURVATURE
AROUND THE STR. DURING THIS TIME, THE FAVORABLE VWS AND SSTS SHOULD
ALLOW TC 13S TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PICK UP SPEED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AROUND TAU 48. THE EXACT SPEED AND
DIRECTION WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY TC 12S (GIOVANNA), WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS
WILL INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS TIME. TC 13S IS EXPECTED
TO BE CAPTURED BY THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120220 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (HILWA) WARNING NR 015//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (HILWA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 64.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 64.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.6S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.6S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.4S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 24.4S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (HILWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, RECENT IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND A 201710Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATES THAT
THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF AN ISOLATED AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
RODRIGUES ISLANDS (FIMR), LOCATED ABOUT 80NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER, SHOW WINDS OF 130/18 KNOTS AND SLP OF 1006MB AT 20/18Z. THE
201711Z ASCAT 25-KM IMAGE COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
SHOWS ONLY 30 KNOT WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AS WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE METOP-A IMAGE AS WELL AS AN EARLIER
1635Z SSMIS IMAGE. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TURNING SOUTHWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO COOLER SST AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM
MAY EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO A MIDLATITUDE FRONT AFTER TAU 96,
NEAR 40S LATITUDE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120221 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (HILWA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (HILWA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 19.7S 64.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 64.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.7S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.3S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 24.9S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 63.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (HILWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST
OF LA REUNION, HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. A 12-HOUR ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND DEPTH. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 210420Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35-45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE
HAS JUST CROSSED INTO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 13S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES AND INCREASING VWS, WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTOR FOR ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. THE INITIAL EXPOSURE INTO THE
STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CAUSE A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AT TAU 12. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WBAR AS THE SOLE RIGHT OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND
220900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120221 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (HILWA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (HILWA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 63.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 63.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.0S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 24.6S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 27.9S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 63.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (HILWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER; HOWEVER, A 211622Z SSMIS IMAGE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING WITH A CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. BASED ON THE TIGHT LOW-
LEVEL STRUCTURE AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
35 TO 45 KNOTS, THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS. RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RODRIGUES ISLANDS (FIMR), LOCATED
ABOUT 30NM WEST OF THE CENTER, SHOWED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
200/24 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 998MB. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. TC 13S IS
TURNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SO THIS
FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND EAST FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120222 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (HILWA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (HILWA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 22.5S 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 24.9S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 63.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (HILWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS ACCELERATED AND TRACKED JUST
EAST OF SOUTH-WARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION WEAKENED
AND DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTHEAST. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE
PASSES INCLUDING A 220337Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS THE GRADUAL EROSION
OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SUPPORTED BY A
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC 13S IS ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST INTO THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 12 HOURS DUE
TO THE RAPIDLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLIES AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR THAT
CONTINUES TO TRACK THE VORTEX TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
THIS FORECAST JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR'S
UNLIKELY PROJECTION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220600Z IS 16 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_hilwa.htm | Updated: 22 February 2012 |