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Tropical Cyclone IGGY
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone IGGY Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20120124 11:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.6S 112.7E TO 17.4S 107.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
240530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S
111.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8S
112.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 111.9E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION. A 240214Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS (25 TO 30 KNOTS) LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH
POLEWARD OUTFLOW DEVELOPING AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON
IMPROVING LLCC ORGANIZATION, INCREASING OUTFLOW, AND THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
251100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20120125 11:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241051Z JAN 12//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 241100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3S 107.8E TO 19.0S 110.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 250832Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.9S 108.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8S
111.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 108.3E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BUT HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNIFICANT SIGNS OF
IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 250502Z
OSCAT PASS INDICATES STRONG GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS ARE LOCATED TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH
IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT IS ALSO SHEERING CONVECTION
WESTWARD. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO
A MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, DECREASING VWS, AND IMPROVING LLCC ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261100Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 130.0E.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120125 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251051ZJAN12//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 107.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 107.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.4S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.4S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.3S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.1S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.2S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.9S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.9S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 107.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS AND IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BANDING
FEATURES, SUPPORTED BY A 25 1106Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF
INDICATING 35 KNOTS. STRONG GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO
WRAP TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 09S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH, BUT HAS BEEN SLOWING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED NORTH OF TC 09S
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TC 09S SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU
96. AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND
TURN TC 09S TO THE SOUTHWEST BEYOND TAU 96. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 09S IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS,
WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT IS ALSO SHEERING
CONVECTION WESTWARD. AS TC 09S TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE, ALLOWING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 251051Z JAN 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 251100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120126 00:30z
MSGID/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 002//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 108.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.9S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.8S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.5S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.0S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.6S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.2S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.0S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 108.6E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 19 FEET.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S, IGGY, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO NEARLY
25 KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR. RECENT IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR EASING AND THE CONVECTION SLIPPING CLOSER TO OVERHEAD OF THE
LLCC. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION DESPITE THE
TRANSITION TOWARDS THE DIURNAL MINIMUM. A 252226Z SSMIS IMAGE
REVEALS A BROAD LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING LACKING OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, AND SHIP REPORTS FROM THE PERIMETER OF THE
SYSTEM CONFIRM AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF GALES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF DVORAK ASSESSMENTS FROM PGTW
AND APRF, EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY DATA, AND SHIP REPORTS. THE 251200Z
PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS TC IGGY APPROXIMATELY
180 NM NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, THUS THE EXPECTED
POLEWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WILL BRING THE SYSTEM
UNDER A REGION OF STEADILY RELAXING SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG TRACK ARE 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS, SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS WELL-ESTABLISHED
RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW
ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE FIELDS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH DEEP
MOISTURE FIELDS EXTENDING TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. TC
09S IS BEING STEERED GENTLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED IN A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE TIMOR SEA. TC 09S WILL TRACK STEADILY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLANK OF THAT ANTICYCLONE THROUGH TAU 72 AND STEADILY INTENSIFY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO. AFTER TAU 72,
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST DROPS OFF
PRECIPITOUSLY. THE MAJORITY OF AIDS INDICATE AN ABRUPT TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF-SHORE OF
WESTERN AUSTRALIA, WHILE OTHERS, INCLUDING EGRR AND SOME ENSEMBLES,
TRACK THE SYSTEM TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
RESULTING IN A STRIKE ON THE PILBARA REGION. THE JTWC FORECAST
WEIGHTS THE SOLUTIONS OF ECMWF AND GFS DUE TO GOOD PERFORMANCE THUS
FAR, AND DISCOUNTS THE EASTWARD TRACK OF EGRR DUE TO WEAKER RECENT
PERFORMANCE, PARTICULARLY ON TC 08S. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND
270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 003//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 16.8S 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 109.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.7S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.6S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.2S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.6S 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.2S 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.6S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.7S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 109.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S, IGGY, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DISPLACED
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO
NEARLY 25 KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR. A 261101Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY SHOWS AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MONSOONAL
FLOW TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). THIS MOTION IS ALONG A LINE OF STEADILY
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG
TRACK ARE 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS, SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS WELL-
ESTABLISHED RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFDN, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO; HOWEVER THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED OF MOTION.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD BOTH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE STR CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA, THE STR WILL CONNECT WITH
THE NER AND TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS TURN
WITH THE EGRR MODEL BRINGING THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST,
WHILE SOME OF THE PROBABILISTIC LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES TRACK THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, RESULTING IN A
STRIKE ON THE PILBARA REGION. THE JTWC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
BOTH CONSENSUS AND ECMWF WITH THE FORECAST SOUTHWEST TURN AT TAU 72.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 270300Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120126 21:00z
MSGID/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 004//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 109.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 109.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.6S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.3S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.8S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.2S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.9S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.1S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.1S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 109.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLOWLY IMPROVING CONSOLIDATION DUE TO MODERATE (20-25
KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DESPITE THE VWS, A 261715Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261405Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 45-50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND THE ASCAT IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF. TC 09S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND THE DYNAMIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. IN GENERAL, THE MODELS ARE TRENDING CLOSER TO LEARMONTH, WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM, HOWEVER, GFS AND ECMWF TRACK TC 09S WEST OF LEARMONTH WHILE UKMO AND JGSM TRACK THE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF LEARMONTH. NOGAPS AND WBAR ARE THE SOLE OUTLIERS AND SHOW A SHARP WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER STR RESULTING FROM THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS TROUGH, WHICH IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 80E, WILL WEAKEN THE STR SO THIS FORECAST FAVORS A MORE PROLONGED SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THEN A SIGNIFICANT SLOW-DOWN IN TRACK SPEEDS OR PERHAPS A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE VWS BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL STR AND VWS RELAXES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
(FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120127 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 005//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 110.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 110.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.9S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.6S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.2S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.7S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.1S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.0S 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.1S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 110.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
TC 09S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE UPPER- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH DECREASED EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (NOW 10-20 KNOTS). A 270024Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TC 09S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE DYNAMIC MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE JGSM TRACKER INDICATING LANDFALL EAST OF LEARMONTH WHILE THE GFDN, ECMWF, GFS AND NOGAPS TRACKERS SHOW A TRACK WEST OF LEARMONTH. OVERALL THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND TRACK SLOWLY DUE TO A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) RESULTING FROM THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDN AND GFS SOLUTIONS WITH A TRACK WEST OF LEARMONTH AND A SIGNIFICANT SLOW-DOWN IN TRACK SPEEDS OR PERHAPS A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL STR AND VWS RELAXES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120127 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 006//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 18.5S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.3S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.7S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.2S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.6S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.1S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.6S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.1S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 110.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S IS NOW APPROACHING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF DECREASED EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE KNES FIX WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO
55 KNOTS. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN BUT CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST UP TO TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA ASSUMES STEERING. THE DYNAMIC MODELS DIVERGE AT THE EXTENDED TAUS WITH JGSM AND ECMWF INDICATING LANDFALL EAST OF LEARMONTH WHILE GFDN, GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A SHARP RECURVE THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF/JGSM SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
(FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120127 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 007//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.7S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.2S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.5S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.7S 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.1S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.7S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.8S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 110.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT COOLING OF CONVECTIVE TOPS OVER THE MAIN FEEDER BAND ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, A 271040Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED WESTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND APRF. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S IS APPROACHING THE RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF FAVORABLY LOW VWS. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWING DOWN AFTER TAU 36 AS THE NER RECEDES AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA ASSUMES STEERING AFTER TAU 48. THIS WILL PROPEL THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE TC WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER IT MAKES THE TURN AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS MAXIMIZE. TC IGGY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR 22 SOUTH LATITUDE WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DIP AND VWS INCREASES.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN ON THE RIGHT AND JGSM, EGRR, AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120127 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 008//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 19.3S 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.8S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.2S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.4S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.7S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.4S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.7S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.2S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 111.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS TC 09S TRACKS CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. CURRENTLY, THERE IS AN ESTIMATED 15-20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VWS OVER THE LLCC WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES CENTER FIXES AND A 271756Z AMSU IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45-55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES/APRF RESPECTIVELY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC IGGY IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWING DOWN AFTER TAU 36 AS THE NER RECEDES AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA ASSUMES STEERING AFTER TAU 48. THIS WILL PROPEL THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE TC WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER IT MAKES THE TURN AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS MAXIMIZE. TC IGGY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR 22 SOUTH LATITUDE WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DIP AND VWS INCREASES.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE RE-CURVATURE WITH THE JGSM BEING THE LEFT MOST OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120128 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 009//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.3S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.4S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.5S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.9S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.5S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.1S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.0S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 110.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280012Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 271342Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 30- KNOT WINDS ALREADY REACHING THE UPPER NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, OTHER RECENT SSMIS IMAGES (272202Z AND
272154Z) SUGGEST THAT TC 09S MAY BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) WHICH IS CENTERED FAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGREEABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE IS AN ESTIMATED 10-15 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VWS OVER THE LLCC WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC IGGY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN AS THE NER RECEDES AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA ASSUMES STEERING AFTER TAU 48. THIS SHOULD PROPEL THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS DECREASES. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN IT MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MAIN GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS A SLOW RE-CURVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO FAVOR A MAINTAINED INTENSITY AFTER THE TURN DUE TO A MORE SOUTHWARDS TRACK IN THE LATER TAUS 96-120, THEREFORE KEEPING THE LLCC IN MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120128 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 010//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 20.1S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.5S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.5S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.7S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.1S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.0S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.6S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.6S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 110.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS VISIBLE IN THE PAST THREE HOURS. TC 09S HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATING 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S IS SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS, CREATING 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, SLOWLY TRACKING TOWARDS WESTERN AUSTRALIA AS THE NER RECEDES THROUGH TAU 48. A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND EVENTUALLY TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU 48 AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 120. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS TC 09S MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL STR AXIS WITH FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120128 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.5S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.6S 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.9S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.3S 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.4S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.1S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.2S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 110.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW, HOWEVER THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO THE ORGANIZATION OF TC 09S. TC 09S REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 WHEN A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, SHIFTING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION OF DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH TAU 48 WITH IMPROVING FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO IMPROVE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN ADDITION TO AN ALREADY FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF TC 09S. DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO HELP TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DECREASING SURFACE CONDITIONS IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO A PLATEAU IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, HOWEVER GFS REMAINS MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120128 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 012//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 110.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.6S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.8S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.3S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.8S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.4S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.5S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.0S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 110.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS GONE FROM AN AMORPHOUS CLUSTER TO A MORE TIGHTLY SPIRAL BANDING STRUCTURE. A 281746Z AMSU IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OVERALL GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW CENTER FIX AND THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. TC 09S REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 WHEN A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, SHIFTING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC IGGY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN THE NOGAPS AND GFDN DEPICTING A SHARPER TURN WEST- SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THE JGSM AND GFS SHOWING A MORE EASTWARDS TRACK DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AFTER WHICH TURNING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN RE-CURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE 4-5 DAY MARK. THE DISCREPANCY OF THESE GROUPINGS CAN BE EXPLAINED BY THE TIMING AND INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTH OF THE LLCC IN ABOUT 4-5 DAYS. THIS FORECAST LIES CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS WITH SLOW TRACK SPEEDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. INTENSITY SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE LLCC TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120129 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 013//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 111.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 111.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.5S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.8S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.5S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.2S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.7S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.6S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.8S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 111.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 09S HAS COME OUT OF ANOTHER PHASE OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM AND THE RELATIVELY THINNER SPIRAL BANDS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO A NEW BURST OF CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS TAKEN THE FORM OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE LATEST SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES (282149Z AND 290000Z SSMIS) 91GHZ AND 37GHZ SLICES REVEAL THAT THE LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND UPPER- LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE STILL TILTED TO THE WEST AS ALTITUDE INCREASES. THIS COULD ACCOUNT FOR THE SOMEWHAT FLAT INTENSITY TREND OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER, THESE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP MORE INTO AND AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONTINUED TREND OF DECREASING EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH CURRENT ESTIMATED VALES OF 10-15 KNOTS. THE CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCT HINTS TOWARDS SOME NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH MAXIMUM DIVERGENCE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL SHOWS DECENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS DATA AND AGREES WELL WITH THE APRF CENTER FIX LOCATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE THAT WAS CENTRALLY LOCATED 12NM TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED LLCC POSITION AND IN CONSIDERATION THAT THE SYSTEM IS NEARLY UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC IGGY CONTINUES TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO COME UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 24, TC 09S SHOULD BE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS). BY TAU 72, TC 09S SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP OFF AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK DURING THE EXTENDED 4-5 DAY FORECAST. AFTER ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL TRACKERS SINCE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ON TC 09S IT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED THAT THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE PERFORMED THE POOREST AND THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE PERFORMED THE BEST. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST FAVORS THOSE MODEL'S SOLUTIONS AS IT LAYS IN BETWEEN THE TWO AND NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS ARE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS/CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FAST TRACK SPEEDS OF THE ECMWF/GFS WHICH ARE PULLING THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON A FAST BIAS DURING THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z, AND 300300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120129 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 111.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 111.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.7S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.2S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.9S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.9S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.5S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.5S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.4S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 111.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) CONVECTION HAS THINNED ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING VISIBLE. THE CDO CONTINUES TO FLARE OVER THE LLCC SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A RECENT 290214Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN HALF RANGING FROM 45 TO 50 KNOTS, BUT DOES NOT ACCURATELY SUPPORT THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS WHICH WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. A 290213Z AMSU-B PASS SUPPORTS THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM AND HINTS AT A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS WEAK AND THE CURRENT POSITION REFLECTS A DRIFTING OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S IS LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR IS IMPROVING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RADIAL OUTFLOW ALONG THE EQUATORWARD HALF OF TC 09S REMAINS FAVORABLE AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AROUND TAU 48 AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 09S, CAUSING A DISRUPTION IN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72 INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING VWS, AND MID- LATITUDE INTERACTION WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TC 09S. EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF WITH A RECURVATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120129 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 20.2S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.5S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.9S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 23.0S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.7S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.0S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 27.5S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 110.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED TO CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM'S ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 291022Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO THE LLCC AND INDICATES TC 09S REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH THE LLCC STARTING TO DRIFT MORE WESTWARD IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO START TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AS A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) BUILDS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72. AROUND TAU 48 A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR CAUSING IT TO RETROGRADE INLAND. BY TAU 72 THIS WEAKNESS WILL ALLOW TC 09S TO RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S REMAINS LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL STR, WHICH IS ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RADIAL OUTFLOW ALONG THE EQUATORWARD HALF OF TC 09S REMAINS FAVORABLE AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AROUND TAU 48 AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 09S, CAUSING A DISRUPTION IN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72.
BEYOND TAU 72 INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING VWS, AND MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TC 09S. EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 96.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, HOWEVER DEVIATES BEYOND WITH TWO SCENARIOS, A TURN WESTWARD (NGPS, EGRR, AND GFDN) AND A RECURVATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST (GFS, ECMWF). THIS FORECAST FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF WITH A RECURVATURE SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120129 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 110.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.3S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.0S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.1S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.6S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.5S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.7S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 27.4S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 110.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A SERIES OF
FORTUNATE ASCAT BULL'S-EYE PASSES (290214Z AND 291443Z) OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS HAS LED TO THE REALIZATION THAT TC 09S HAD EMBARKED ON
A COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE PAST DAY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 291735Z AMSU-B IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND LAYS LESS
THAN 10NM NORTHWEST OF THE PGTW AND KNES CENTER FIXES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN LIGHT OF
THE NEW ASCAT DATA. IT SEEMS THAT DUE TO THE QUASI-STATIONARY AND
LOOPING TRACK OF TC IGGY THAT THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) HAS BEEN
EXHAUSTED. ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST OHC AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) DATA SUGGESTS A NOTICEABLE COLD POOL WHERE THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
SPINNING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND SST IS CURRENTLY NEAR 26
DEGREES CELSIUS WITH 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND LOWER NEAR 22S 109E,
WHERE THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRACKING OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LLCC UNDER A POINT-SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE
ENABLING WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH CAN
BE SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT SEEMS THAT TC 09S MAY FINALLY
BE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE RIDGE'S WESTERN FLANK DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. BY TAU 72, TC IGGY SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-CURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE PERIPHERY
AND BECOMES THE STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE SYSTEM. TC 09S SHOULD
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS OCEANIC CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE BY TAU 72 WHEN THE TROUGH COMES THROUGH.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED THE SAME WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDN
DEPICTING A SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK OUT TO SEA DUE TO THE LACK
OF MODELING THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND MID- TO
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. THESE MODELS DEPICT AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEFLECTS IT WESTWARDS. THIS FORECAST FAVORS
THE ECMWF, GFS, AND MODEL CONSENSUS WITH TRACK SPEEDS FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, NEAR THE 4-5 DAY MARK, DUE TO
THE VERY FAST TRACK SPEEDS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS DURING THIS TIME. TC
09S SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE IT
BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 19.8S 110.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 110.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.3S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.4S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.7S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.0S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.6S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.4S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 27.1S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 110.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
QUADRANTS WITH NEWLY FORMING OVERSHOOTING TOPS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A COMPARISON OF THE 291429Z TRMM 37GHZ
IMAGE TO THE NEWER 292242Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN IMPROVED
LOWER-LEVEL STRUCTURE AS CONVECTION NOW COMPLETELY ENCIRCLES THE
LLCC WHEREAS BEFORE THERE WAS A LACK OF BANDING TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE CORIOLIS IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LLCC UNDER
A POINT-SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE ENABLING WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
IT SEEMS THAT TC 09S MAY FINALLY BE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AS THE LLCC HAD
TRACKED GENERALLY WESTWARDS OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE RIDGE'S
WESTERN FLANK DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTER TAU 48, TC IGGY SHOULD
BEGIN TO RE-CURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE PERIPHERY AND BECOMES THE STEERING
INFLUENCE FOR THE SYSTEM. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
EXHAUST PROVIDED BY THE CONTINUED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 36, TC IGGY SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAKENING TREND AS
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DROPS DRAMATICALLY AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DIP TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. BY TAU 72 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
SYSTEM AND PROVIDE FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
INTENSITY. TC 09S SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96
AND COMPLETE IT BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED THE SAME
WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDN DEPICTING A SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK OUT
TO SEA DUE TO THE LACK OF MODELING THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND MID- TO LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. THESE MODELS DEPICT AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEFLECTS IT WESTWARDS. THIS
FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF, GFS, AND MODEL CONSENSUS WITH TRACK
SPEEDS FASTER THAN CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, NEAR THE 4-5
DAY MARK, DUE TO THE VERY FAST TRACK SPEEDS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS AND
OPPOSITE TRACK DIRECTION OF THE NOGAPS AND GFS DURING THIS TIME.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120130 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 110.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 110.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.0S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.2S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.4S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.5S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.9S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.7S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.4S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 110.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS WITH STRONG BANDING CONVECTION
ENCIRCLING THE EASTERN QUADRANTS. A 300152Z AMSU-B PASS SUPPORTS THE
IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION OBSERVED IN MSI. ADDITIONALLY,
THE IMAGE INDICATES THAT TC 09S HAS STARTED TO INCREASE SPEED AND
TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PREVIOUS AMSU-B IMAGE, PERSISTENT FEATURES
VISIBLE IN MSI AND A PGTW FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE PERSISTS OVER THE LLCC, PROVIDING A LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT AND AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW. A
SMALL INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS APPEARS TO SUPPORT THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
BUILDING OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA IS BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. BEYOND TAU 48, AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STR, ALLOWING TC 09S TO RECURVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 09S WILL WEAKLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND GOOD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). BEYOND
TAU 36, AS TC 09S CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD, QUICKLY
DECREASING SST VALUES AND INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE A STEADY
WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 48. BEYOND TAU 48, INTERACTION WITH THE
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL CAUSE FURTHER WEAKENING.
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 72 AND
WILL COMPLETE BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD,
AND THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF, GFS SOLUTION TAKING TC 09S INTO
AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.0S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 23.4S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.2S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 26.7S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 27.6S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 27.7S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 110.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS PERSISTS AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BUT HAS STRUGGLED TO CONSOLIDATE
WITH PERIODS OF INCREASED FLARING EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 301009Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
IMAGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POSITION FIX FROM PGTW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF
INDICATING 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE PERSISTS OVER THE LLCC, PROVIDING A LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT AND AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 09S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR TROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, HOWEVER,
AROUND TAU 36, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MODIFY THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR CAUSING A RECURVATURE TO
THE EAST. THE INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN IMPROVEMENT OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND
AN IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. FAVORABLE SST VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL QUICKLY DECREASE BEYOND TAU 24. THE
ADDITIONAL VENTING PROVIDED BY THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL
ALSO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHED AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE VICINITY OF
TC 09S AROUND TAU 36. CONTINUING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL LEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AROUND TAU 72 WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE COMPLETION OF
ETT BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. NGPS HAS RECENTLY SHIFTED FROM A WESTERLY TRACK OF THE
LLCC IN LATER TAUS TO A RECURVATURE SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN SUGGESTED
BY ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ONLY OUTLIER CURRENTLY
IS GFDN, WHICH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WESTERN TRACK. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120130 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 21.3S 109.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 109.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.6S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.6S 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.5S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 27.6S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 28.1S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.7S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 109.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED PREDOMINATELY TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS WANING. SOME COLD-AIR
STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS CAN BE OBSERVED FEEDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. A 301009Z SSMIS IMAGE CONFIRMS THAT THICK LOW LEVEL
BANDING PERSISTS ON ALL SIDES OF THE STORM. THE LATEST AMSU-B RADIAL
CROSS SECTION REVEALS THE PERSISTENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM
ANOMALY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ASSESSMENTS OF 55
KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH THERE IS INCREASING IMPINGEMENT ON OUTFLOW
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
PERSISTS ELSEWHERE. A DEVELOPING POLEWARD CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO AID
MILD INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. FOLLOWING THAT,
TC 09S WILL TRACK INTO A REGION OF NON-SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COMMENCE A RAPID
WEAKENING TREND. THE 301200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT TC 09S CURRENTLY EXISTS NEAR A SINGULAR OUTFLOW POINT
ALMOST DIRECTLY UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, IN AN AREA OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ANTICYCLONE IS OFF-SHORE, ALONG
THE NORTHWEST COAST AND BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE CAPE
REGION. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE TC 09S TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 AND
ACCELERATE RAPIDLY INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE
SYSTEM WILL COINCIDE WITH THE TRANSITION INTO THE WESTERLIES, AND TC
09S WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CYCLONE STRENGTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY
THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND THEN DIVERGES WIDELY. THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48. IN THE LATER RANGE, GFS AND NGPS
SHOOT THE STORM INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE CONTINENT WITH EXPLOSIVE
SPEED. THUS, THE LONGER-RANGE FORECAST STAYS ON THE SAME BEARING AS
CONSENSUS BUT AT A REDUCED ALONG-TRACK SPEED.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120131 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 22.0S 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 109.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 23.7S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.5S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.2S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 27.9S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.5S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 109.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER STRETCHING AND CONVECTION WANING.
RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS INDICATE A LAPSE IN DEEP CONVECTION, BUT
THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS TIGHTLY
ORGANIZED AND TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING IS STILL VISIBLE ON
A 302257Z SSMIS IMAGE. OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS ARE STREAMING TOWARDS THE LLCC, BUT THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THEY HAVE NOT BEGUN WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM AT THE BOUNDARY LEVEL. IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME, HOWEVER,
AS TC 09S HAS RAN OUT OF WARM WATER AND IS ON A PERMANENT DOWN-
TREND. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK ARE NO LONGER SUPPORTIVE
FOR THE SUSTAINMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL COUPLED WITH THE GOOD EXISTING ORGANIZATION WILL
COMBINE TO MAKE THE RATE OF DECAY SLOW, BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT MAKE LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
STRENGTH. TC 09S IS BEING DRIVEN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36, ACCELERATING RAPIDLY INTO THE WESTERLIES. AS
IT TRACKS INTO THE WESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MERGE INTO
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SIMULTANEOUS WITH ENCOUNTERING SHARPLY INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48, THEN DIVERGES WIDELY. SOME AIDS ARE LOSING THE LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER AND TRACKING THE 850 MB VORTICITY FIELDS TO
THE NORTHEAST WHILE OTHERS ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE CONTINENT AT EXTREMELY HIGH SPEEDS. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR DISSIPATION IS
FASTER THAN GUIDANCE BASED ON THE OBSERVED COLLAPSE OF CONVECTION
AND THE PRECIPITOUS DROP IN ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120131 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 24.0S 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 108.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 26.1S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 28.0S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 29.0S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 29.3S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 108.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IS CLEARLY
INDICATED ON A 311129Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A CONSOLIDATED
LLCC WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS AND IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A 310134Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 09S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA
AND IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THEREFORE, TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 BEFORE COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SO THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120201 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 26.1S 107.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S 107.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 28.0S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 29.1S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 29.3S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 29.6S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 107.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE
SYSTEM BRIEFLY DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED EYE AND UNDERWENT A BURST OF
INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, DRY AIR IS NOW ERODING THE WESTERN EYEWALL
AS IT ENTRAINS INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
MOSAIC OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTS THAT A CLOUD-COVERED
EYE FEATURE HAS PROBABLY BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. A
312023Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE WELL DEVELOPED SPIRAL BANDING
FEATURES AND MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE EYE FIX AS WELL AS A 312208Z CORIOLIS 37V
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55-77 KNOTS FROM ABRF,
KNES AND PGTW. A RECENT OFF-HOUR DVORAK ESTIMATE INDICATES THAT TC
09S REACHED PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AN INSPECTION OF
A HIGH RESOLUTION SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANALYSIS INDICATES A
SMALL ANOMALOUS WARM POOL DEVELOPED IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM,
PROVIDING ONE LAST BIT OF ENERGY BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVED
OVER COOLER (24 DEGREE CELSIUS) WATER AND INTO A HIGHER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR REGIME. THE CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED
AND TC 09S IS FORECAST TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 24 THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET), HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY TAU 48, PRIOR TO COMPLETING ET. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN,
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK
SPEED ONCE THE SYSTEM IS FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES. THE
FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE UNREALISTIC GFDN MOTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120201 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 28.6S 108.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6S 108.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 29.9S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 30.3S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 30.2S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 29.9S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 28.9S 109.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PERTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE THE COLD SST (NEAR 23C), TC 09S HAS
MAINTAINED AN ORGANIZED CORE OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND WEAK EYE
STRUCTURE. A 01/00Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION DEPICTED A STRONG +3C WARM
ANOMALY AT 8-11KM WHILE THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAKENING COCOON OF DEEP MOISTURE. A 011115Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTS A BROKEN, ELONGATED EYEWALL WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED LOW-LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE LLCC IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS UNDER MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE VISIBLE EYE FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55
TO 65 KNOTS. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD AND TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE COLD SST AND INCREASING
VWS. TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120202 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 29.7S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.7S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 30.3S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 30.5S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 30.3S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 29.8S 111.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PERTH, AUSTRALIA HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ADDITIONALLY, THE LLCC IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE FIELD OF COLD-AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AGREEABLE
CENTER FIXES BY PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES IN ADDITION TO A
012100Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 56 KNOTS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC IGGY
IS APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
UNDER MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WITH MAXIMUM DIVERGENCE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM, EAST OF THE LLCC. TC 09S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE STRONG VWS AND MAKE LANDFALL AS
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. BY TAU 36,
TC 09S WILL DISSIPATE OVERLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS SPEED-UP
BY THE UNREALISTICALLY FAST TRACK SPEEDS OF THE JGSM, GFS, AND WBAR.
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND MORE
IN-LINE WITH THE EGRR AND NOGAPS 36 HOUR POSITIONS TO OFFSET THOSE
FASTER MODEL TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120202 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 29.9S 113.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9S 113.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 29.8S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 29.9S 114.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTHWEST OF PERTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM A NOW
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW SHOWING A RAPID WEAKENING TREND
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARDS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING THE LARGE SHEAR OBSERVED IN MSI. TC
09S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TRACKING FURTHER INLAND. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 17
FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_iggy.htm | Updated: 8 February 2012 |