Tropical
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![]() Tropical Cyclone IRINA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20120226 01:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7S 53.3E TO 14.9S 44.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 260100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 51.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 53.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH INTENSE, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 252320Z AMSU IMAGE ALSO INDICATES IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALTHOUGH THE LLCC APPEARS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WHILE TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AND WILL INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 270130Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS21 PGTW 20120227 01:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260121Z FEB 12// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 260130)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 49.4E TO 15.0S 43.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 48.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 49.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 48.5E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NOW RE-EMERGING OVER WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 262245Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED WHILE LOW-LEVEL BANDING REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT FMNN, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM NNW OF THE CENTER, SHOW SLP VALUES NEAR 998 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 280130Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS21 PGTW 20120228 01:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270121Z FEB 12// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 270130)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 45.1E TO 17.3S 41.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 272330Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 45.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BEING SHEARED SHARPLY TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS SKIRTING THE COASTLINE OF NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR AND CONVECTION HAS EBBED IN RESPONSE TO THE LAND INTERACTION. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS BROAD, WITH A SMALL REGION OF 25-30 KNOT SOUTHERLIES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CHANNEL. THE 271200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE LLCC UNDER A REGION OF HIGHLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLIES, BUT FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT THE SHEAR IS IMPEDING DEVELOPMENT. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MILD IMPINGEMENT TO OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT ALONG WITH A LACK OF ANY WELL-DEVELOPED OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR HAD BEEN RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST AND DRIVING THE LLCC SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A A REGION OF REDUCED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE APPEARS TO BE WANING. THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING TRAPPED BETWEEN STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES ON EITHER SIDE OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH WILL CONFINE IT BETWEEN THE 16TH AND 19TH LATITUDES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CAPE SAINT ANDRE REGION ARE 29 TO 30 DEGREES. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY AS THE LLCC TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 290130Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120229 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280121Z FEB 12// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 43.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 43.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 16.8S 43.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 17.6S 42.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 19.1S 42.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.9S 41.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 22.9S 37.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.7S 34.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 24.2S 32.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 43.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 14S IS OVERCOMING THE IMPEDIMENTS OF HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS NOW INTENSIFYING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK ASSESSMENTS AND A PRESSURE REPORT FROM JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND, WHICH IS NEAR THE STORM CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OFF THE CAPE ST ANDRE REGION AND SLOWLY GATHERING STRENGTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, BUT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VIGOROUS OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO IMPROVING, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A REGION OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THAT IS ALSO REFLECTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS, WHICH INDICATE A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. 28-29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL ARE SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATED AN ELONGATED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION AND TIGHTER BANDING. TC 14S IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE 30TH LATITUDE. THE NORTHERN ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING INTO THE DOMINANT FORCE AND WILL DRIVE TC 14S ACROSS THE CHANNEL AND INTO MOZAMBIQUE, NORTH OF MAPUTO. PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 280121Z FEB 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120229 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 42.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 42.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 16.8S 42.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 18.1S 42.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.0S 41.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 21.5S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 23.3S 36.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 23.4S 33.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 23.2S 31.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 42.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 14S HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SLOWLY WEAKENED BUT REMAINS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF AND IS SUFFERING AS THE SOUTHERN INFLOW CROSSES OVER MADAGASCAR WITH A REGION OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW INDICATING 35 KNOTS. 28 TO 29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL ARE SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TC 14S IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE 30TH LATITUDE. THE NORTHERN ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP INTO THE DOMINANT FORCE DRIVING TC 14S ACROSS THE CHANNEL AND INTO SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL INTO AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED JUST AFTER TAU 72, WITH FRICTIONAL EFFECTS QUICKLY DISSIPATING TC 14S BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120301 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 003// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 43.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 43.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 18.7S 43.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.9S 42.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 22.7S 40.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 23.6S 38.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 24.2S 35.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.2S 33.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 25.5S 32.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 43.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. TC 14S HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, INCREASING FROM 35 KNOTS TO 60 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 (KNES/FMEE) TO 65 (PGTW) KNOTS. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE CENTER. TC 14S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL AFTER TAU 96 WHEN THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120301 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 004// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 43.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 43.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 22.0S 42.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 23.4S 40.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 24.2S 38.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.7S 36.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 25.3S 34.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 25.0S 32.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 43.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAD ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AS IT BRUSHED THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS THE WELL- DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS REMAINED INTACT. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED RIDGE TO THE EAST. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO ASSUME STEERING AFTER TAU 24 AND FLATTEN THE CYCLONE'S TRACK TO A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 48. BY TAU 72, TC IRINA WILL IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO MOZAMBIQUE, JUST NORTH OF MAPUTO. THE TC WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120302 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 22.0S 42.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 42.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 23.8S 40.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 24.5S 38.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.7S 35.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 25.0S 34.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.5S 32.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 25.8S 31.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 41.9E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120302 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 006// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 24.3S 40.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S 40.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.2S 37.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 25.5S 35.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 25.8S 34.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.2S 33.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 26.5S 31.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 39.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A 021038Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH UP TO LANDFALL AND DISSIPATION INTO MOZAMBIQUE. TC IRINA WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS, AS THE VWS RELAXES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST THEN SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AT THE EXTENDED TAUS, INDICATING COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS OVER A WEAKENED SYSTEM. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR'S UNLIKELY POLEWARD TUG INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120303 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 007// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 38.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 38.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 25.7S 35.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 26.3S 34.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 27.7S 33.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 28.4S 34.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 27.0S 35.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 25.2S 34.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 24.3S 34.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 37.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 14S IS STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY EVEN THOUGH IT HAS MOVED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND LIES DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM 020912Z INDICATES THAT WINDS OVER THE EQUATORWARD SEMICIRCLE ARE GENERALLY BELOW GALE FORCE. A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP CONFIRMS A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL CHANNEL AND A 021944Z TRMM IMAGE REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE, SHOWING STRONGLY SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A SPECTACULAR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHUNTING MOISTURE DEEP INTO THE AFRICAN INTERIOR, WHICH WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM AT MINIMAL CYCLONE STRENGTH. THERE IS ALSO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF BOUNDARY-LEVEL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THE RESULT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STORM AND A MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE ANTICYCLONE. THE ANTICYCLONE IS MOVING RAPIDLY OUT OF THE AREA AND AS IT DOES SO A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE MASCARENE ISLANDS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FORCE, NUDGING THE STORM ACROSS THE CHANNEL TOWARDS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. DUE TO THE FAILURE OF THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE ERRATIC, WITH SOME VORTEX TRACKERS NOW INDICATING AN ERRATIC LOOPING MOTION OVER THE WESTERN CHANNEL. THE 021200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SOURCE OF THE SUPPRESSED DEVELOPMENT IS AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. ALTHOUGH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXIST WITHIN THE CHANNEL, THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CAP INTENSITY AT LOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE LOW LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. THUS THERE IS A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND TC 14S IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, THEN TURN BRIEFLY POLEWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKS OFF-SHORE OF SOUTH AFRICA. THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, WILL PRECLUDE LINKAGE WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TC 14S WILL RESUME A POLEWARD TRACK TOWARDS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AS THE NEXT ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL DRIVE TC 14S LANDWARD AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS AT AND JUST ABOVE CYCLONE INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z AND 040300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120303 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 25.6S 35.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 35.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 26.1S 33.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 27.2S 33.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 28.4S 33.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 28.5S 34.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.4S 35.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 24.3S 34.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 22.5S 31.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 35.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS SEEN MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CREATE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LLCC, EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 030716Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. TC 14S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TRANSITORY LOW- TO MID- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES THE ANTICYCLONE WILL WEAKEN ALONG THE WESTERN HALF AS A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA TRACKS EASTWARD BRINGING THE TRACK SOUTHWARD. BY TAU 72 THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED FURTHER TO THE EAST ALLOWING A NEW ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF TC 14S. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 14S TO TRACK INTO SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS MAINTAINING WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH AS THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HINDERS MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING THE INTENSITY. IN LATER TAUS THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WILL WEAKEN DUE TO POOR SSTS SOUTH OF 26 DEGREES SOUTH AND DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TAU 96, TC 14S WILL MAKE LANDFALL LEADING TO THE LLCC DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z AND 041500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120304 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 26.3S 34.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 34.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 27.5S 33.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 28.3S 34.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 28.5S 34.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 27.5S 35.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 25.5S 34.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 24.2S 32.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 34.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 14S IS REGENERATING DEEP CONVECTION AND TURNING BACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. AGENCY FIXES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING POSITION AND EXACT AGREEMENT REGARDING INTENSITY. DESPITE THE RECENT MOVEMENT AWAY FROM LAND, RAINBANDS IN THE OUTER PERIPHERY ARE GENERATING DOWNPOURS ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MAPUTO AND INHAMBANE, MOZAMBIQUE. THE OTHER CONCENTRATION OF HEAVY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS DISPLACED TO THE DISTANT SOUTHWEST, A PRODUCT OF CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE BELT OF EASTERLIES FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 031942Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF PERSISTENT GALES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 031630Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND THE 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE. THE 031200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF INHAMBANE, AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS STIFLING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN RETROGRADING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST AND NEITHER FILLING NOR DEEPENING. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS CONFIRM A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTEROMETRY DATA ALSO CONFIRMS THE LOP-SIDED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH EXPANSIVE AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE AND A VERY NARROW AREA OF GALES ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS LOST THE SUPERB EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT EXISTED 24 HOURS AGO, BUT VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS, AND THERE IS ADEQUATE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS SEVERELY IMPINGING ON OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS A DEEP MID- LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKING OVER SOUTH AFRICA THAT WILL EXERT AN INCREASING STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALONG WITH A BOOST TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE STORM AND THE NORTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE GOING TO BEGIN LINKAGE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CURRENTLY, TC 14S IS BEING KEPT OVER THE WESTERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH IS PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO GIVE WAY AND REORIENT EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL. THE RETREATING ANTICYCLONE COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD DRAW FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CAUSE A NET SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH WILL BE A NEAR MISS AND NOT COUPLE WITH THE STORM, PASSING OVER THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REBUILD SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND TC 14S WILL RESUME MOVEMENT TOWARDS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, WHERE IT WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT LOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE ECMWF MODEL, HOWEVER, DEPICTS A CLOSED 500MB HEIGHT CENTER SEPARATING FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, RESULTING IN A VERTICALLY STACKED SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MEANDER OVER THE CHANNEL THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 96. DESPITE THE STRONG TRACK RECORD OF THE ECMWF VORTEX TRACKER, THE FORECAST STAYS CLOSER TO CONSENSUS. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR BEING SHUNTED FROM THE STORM TO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THE RAPIDITY WITH WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE SYSTEM MAKES IT UNLIKELY THAT A POOL OF COLD AIR IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND TRANSLATE AS FAR EQUATORWARD AS ECMWF INDICATES. THUS, THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A SLOW REVERSAL BACK TOWARDS LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AFTER TAU 24 AND A RELATIVELY FLAT INTENSITY TREND THROUGH LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND 050300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120304 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 27.3S 34.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 34.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 28.6S 34.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 28.8S 34.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.3S 35.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 27.7S 35.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 26.5S 35.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 25.3S 34.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 24.0S 31.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 34.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LLCC HAS TAKEN A SHARP TURN SOUTHWARD AND HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE AS IT HAS SKIRTED THE AFRICAN COAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS AND THE PERSISTENT STRUCTURE OBSERVED SINCE A 042214Z OSCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS. AS TC 14S MOVES FURTHER INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS INFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY IMPROVES FROM A REDUCTION IN LAND INFLUENCE. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR SLOWING TC 14S. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA BRINGING TC 14S BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN LATER TAUS AS INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAMPERS OUTFLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHIFTING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A SLOWER LOOP BACK INTO MOZAMBIQUE. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96 LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120305 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 29.4S 34.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.4S 34.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 30.4S 35.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 29.9S 36.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 29.1S 36.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 28.1S 37.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 27.3S 36.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 26.2S 33.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 26.2S 29.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 34.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 14S BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC AND DEVELOPING DEEPER CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE, AND SUPPORTED BY THREE SHIP REPORTS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A MOSAIC OF MICROWAVE IMAGES CULMINATING WITH A 042246Z TRMM PASS CONFIRMS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZATION, SHOWING THICK AND TIGHTLY CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS AN EXCEPTION IN THE FORM OF A LARGE BREAK OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, WHICH IS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE SUBSIDENT AREA AS A PRODUCT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHEREAS 24 HOURS AGO THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE SAME AREA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS THE CYCLONE FILLS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO POINTS TO AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, SHOWING A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOLID RADIAL OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE. THE POLEWARD CHANNEL IS A PRODUCT OF AN ENCROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WHICH IS NOW PASSING EASTERN SOUTH AFRICA. IN ADDITION TO FANNING THE OUTFLOW, THE TROUGH IS DRAWING TC 14S POLEWARD. IT STILL APPEARS THAT SEPARATION BETWEEN TC 14S AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS OF SUFFICIENT DISTANCE TO PREVENT LINKAGE, AND THAT AS THE TROUGH PASSES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 14S WILL MAKE A LANGUID TURN BACK TO AN EQUATORWARD TRACK. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES RE- ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTH AFRICA, IT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND BEGIN GUIDING THE STORM BACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN NEAR UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOOPING PATTERN. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR TC 14S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE DURING THIS PROCESS; HENCE THE FLAT TREND IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. UPWELLING NEAR THE COAST WILL INDUCE SOME DECAY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120305 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 30.6S 35.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.6S 35.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 30.7S 36.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 30.2S 38.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 29.0S 38.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 28.1S 38.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 27.7S 36.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 27.5S 34.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 27.2S 32.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 30.6S 35.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM AS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH IS IMPINGING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL VENTED TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, GUIDING TC 14S BACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THE INTENSITY WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING SUPPORTED BY THE TRANSITORY MID- LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD, DIMINISHING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND BEYOND TAU 24. UPWELLING NEAR THE COAST AND THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL CAUSE TC 14S TO DISSIPATE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LOOPING PATTERN, HOWEVER MODELS HAVE DIFFERING TIMING OF LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120306 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 30.3S 37.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.3S 37.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 29.7S 39.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 29.1S 39.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 28.6S 39.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 30.2S 38.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT 12-HOUR ENHANCED ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECAME MORE FRAGMENTED AND WAS DISPLACED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. FURTHERMORE, CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS BECOME SHALLOWER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND A 052306Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL FEATURE DETACHED FROM THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTH- WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS TC IRINA'S VERTICAL STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO REDUCE, A LOW-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE OF GOOD HOPE WILL NUDGE THE CYCLONE EQUATORWARD AFTER TAU 12 AND CONTINUED EXPOSURE TO MODERATE VWS WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE OUTLIER PROJECTING A CONTINUED LINEAR EASTWARD MOTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120306 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 30.5S 39.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.5S 39.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 29.6S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 28.9S 39.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 30.3S 39.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A 061134Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL BANDING; HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A 060616Z ASCAT IMAGE HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONG LLCC WITH NUMEROUS 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE ASCAT PEAK WINDS OF 50 KNOTS BUT IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. TC 14S IS SLOWLY WEAKENING WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COOL SST NEAR 25C AND MODERATE, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14S IS TURNING MORE POLEWARD AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120307 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 29.7S 41.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 29.7S 41.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 29.2S 40.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 29.1S 40.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 41.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT 12-HOUR ENHANCED ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECAME ELONGATED AND WAS DISPLACED FURTHER AWAY EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS CONVECTIVE TOPS BECAME SHALLOWER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND A 062256Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DETACHED FROM THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. TC IRINA IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO SUSTAINED MODERATE VWS AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE OUTLIER PROJECTING A CONTINUED LINEAR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE ABRUPTLY TRACKING THE VORTEX POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 071500Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120307 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 016// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 29.4S 40.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.4S 40.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 29.3S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 29.3S 39.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 29.3S 37.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 40.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A 071124Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LIMITED TO THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE LLCC. A 070554Z ASCAT IMAGE HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONG LLCC WITH NUMEROUS 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RECENT ASCAT DATA AND IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. TC 14S IS SLOWLY WEAKENING WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COOL SST NEAR 25C AND MODERATE, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14S IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL (850MB) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120308 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 29.4S 40.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.4S 40.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 29.4S 39.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 29.4S 38.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 40.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 072316Z TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A COMPACT LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 14S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 14S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THIS WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSAGE OVER COOL WATER AND A DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL INDUCE GRADUAL DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120308 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 29.7S 40.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.7S 40.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 29.8S 39.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 29.9S 38.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 39.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 14S HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 14S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (25 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE HINDERING THE ABILITY OF TC 14S TO DEVELOP AND WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, SPEEDING UP THE WEAKENING TREND. THE COMBINATION OF POOR SSTS AND DECREASING OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120309 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 29.5S 39.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S 39.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 29.5S 38.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 29.5S 37.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 39.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 082220Z TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE AND RECENT FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 14S CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BECOMING SHALLOWER OVER A STILL TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MINIMAL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER A COOL SEA SURFACE WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120309 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 29.5S 37.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S 37.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 29.3S 36.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 28.6S 36.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 37.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHALLOW CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO SEPARATE AS WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE LOSING THE SYMMETRIC TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE 24 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL INHIBIT THE ABILITY OF TC 14S TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION OF AVAILABLE DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES INDICATING 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST OF TC 14S HAS SHUT DOWN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, THE ONLY VIABLE VENTING MECHANISM. THE COMBINATION OF POOR SSTS, INCREASING VWS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC, AND STIFLED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, HAS CAUSED TC 14S TO BEGIN DISSIPATING. COMPLETE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120310 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 29.6S 36.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 29.6S 36.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 29.2S 35.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 36.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME UNRAVELED AND DISORGANIZED AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 092124Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FROM THE MICROWAVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ON THE 092124Z TRMM IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE MODERATE VWS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND INHIBIT THE SYSTEM FROM REGENERATING. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
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Document: tropical_cyclone_irina.htm | Updated: 12 March 2012 |