[Index]
Tropical Cyclone JASMINE
Southern Hemisphere Summary
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone JASMINE Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20120202 20:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0S 145.8E TO 19.5S 154.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY,
SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA AT 021930Z, INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 146.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S
142.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER NORTHERN
QUEENSLAND. RECENT 512 KM COMPOSITE RADAR FROM CAIRNS INDICATES THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CAIRNS. A 021139Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS VERY TIGHT TROUGHING ALONG THE
COAST WITH 20 KNOT NORTHWESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. FURTHER EXAMINATION
OF THE 512 KM COMPOSITE RADAR FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, ALONG WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COEN AIRPORT SHOWING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS, INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN QUEENSLAND MAY BE
A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. 022000Z SURFACE PRESSURE REPORTS FROM
COOKTOWN (CLOSEST TO THE LLCC) ARE 993 MB WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST WEST OF A POINT-SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE AND NEARLY UNDER AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
WEAK AT 05-10 KNOTS AND THERE IS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. DUE TO
THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE LOWER- AND UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS OVER THE
CORAL SEA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032000Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 20120203 20:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED 031951ZFEB2012//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021951ZFEB2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3S 148.9E TO 18.5S 155.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 031830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.1S 150.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.1S
146.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 150.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT 512 KM COMPOSITE RADAR FROM WILLIS
ISLAND INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. A 031119Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 30-45 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A CROSS EQUATORIAL SURGE,
BUT ONLY 10-25 KNOT EASTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC.
A 031752Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS AT THE EASTERN END OF AN
INDUCED TROUGH ACROSS THE TOP OF AUSTRALIA IN AN AREA OF 20-25 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER THE VWS DECREASES JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION. ADDITIONALLY, THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT
REMAINS FAVORABLE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. DUE TO THE NARROW BUT HIGHLY FAVORABLE
LOWER- AND UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS OVER THE CORAL SEA, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
042000Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120204 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031951Z FEB 12//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 150.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 150.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.4S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.5S 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.5S 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.4S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.5S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.1S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.9S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 150.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. A 040625Z SSMI IMAGE
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED
LLCC; HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. RADAR IMAGERY FROM WILLIS ISLAND ALSO SHOWS
WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BUT DOES SHOW A DEFINED CENTER ON THE
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE RADAR IMAGERY AND THE SSMI IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
DESPITE THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM WILLIS ISLAND, ABOUT 70 NM NNW OF CENTER, INDICATE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 995 MB. FLINDER'S REEF,
ABOUT 100 NM WSW OF CENTER, CURRENTLY SHOW SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 33 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 995 MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN TOO LOW AND RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KNOTS. TC 10P IS TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST BY ALL
THE DYNAMIC MODELS TO TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD VANUATU THROUGH TAU 72.
THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO
TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE (NOGAPS, GFS, WBAR, GFDN AND ECMWF)
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME MINOR VARIATIONS IN TRACK SPEED;
THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER, FAVORING THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL ECMWF TRACK
SPEEDS. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) AS WELL AS THE ELONGATED
NATURE OF THE LLCC. AFTER TAU 36, TC 10P SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 96. OVERALL, THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DUE TO THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW MECHANISM. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 031951Z FEB 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120204 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 151.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 151.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.0S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.0S 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.0S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.3S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.1S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.5S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.7S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 152.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, JASMINE, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT
SHOW ANY DRAMATIC CHANGE IN QUANTITY OR CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE MORE
VIGOROUS TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, BUT HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY DOES
SHOW POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH IN ALL QUADRANTS. RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA ALSO SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS IN ALL QUADRANTS AS
WELL AN LLCC THAT IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS GOING BACK 48 HOURS SHOW A STREAMER OF DRY AIR
TRAVELLING OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY A LESS INTENSE
TONGUE OF DRY SOUTHEASTERLIES IS MOVING UP THE QUEENSLAND COAST AND
FEEDING INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE STORM HAS MANAGED TO ABSORB
AND MODIFY THE DRY AIR, BUT THE EFFORT OF DOING SO, COUPLED WITH
LESS-THAN-IDEAL OUTFLOW SITUATION, HAS MADE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION REVEALS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ADEQUATE, BUT
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS BEEN IMPINGING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. RECENT ANIMATION INDICATES THAT THED
ETRIMENTAL INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH IS WANING, AND AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS FURTHER SEAWARD, SOME OF THE CONSTRAINTS TO DEVELOPMENT WILL
EASE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH WAS 25 KNOTS 24 HOURS AGO, HAS
EASED TO APPROXIMATELY 15 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
SHIP REPORT OF 40 KNOTS FROM 95 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC AS
WELL AS SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM 041400Z AND A DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF
45 KNOTS FROM ABRF. ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS PASSED DOWNSTREAM OF
WILLIS ISLAND, THEY ARE STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS.
THE NEXT UPSTREAM STATION, LIHOU REEF, IS NOT REPORTING YET. ALONG-
TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 29 DEGREES. THE FIRST AMSU RADIAL
CROSS-SECTION REVEALS A WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY. THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED IN A MID- TO HI-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOLOMONS, IS STEERING TC 10P STEADILY EASTWARD.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE TOWARDS PAPUA NEW GUINEA DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS, ELIMINATING ANY POLEWARD DRIFT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING DUE EASTERLY MOVEMENT WITH SLOW BUT
STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
AND ACCELERATION INTO THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ).
PEAK INTENSITY WILL COINCIDE WITH THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH ENTRY INTO THE SPCZ, BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96. AS TC 10P TURNS UP
THE SPCZ, SPEED OF ADVANCE WILL INCREASE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
RISE, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL FALL, COMMENCING A WEAKENING
TREND. BECAUSE OF THE CONSISTENCY SHOWN IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND
THE RELATIVELY STABLE ORIENTATION OF THE SPCZ, THERE EXISTS
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN A TRACK THAT CARRIES THE STORM BETWEEN NEW
CALEDONIA AND VANUATU, WHICH WILL HELP MINIMIZE DAMAGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120205 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 153.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 153.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.2S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.1S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.4S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.7S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.3S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.3S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.3S 175.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 154.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE WEST. A 050324Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH A VERY NARROW AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS
OF DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF TC 10P, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS
TAPPING INTO MOISTURE COMING FROM THE WEST OVER THE AUSTRALIAN
CONTINENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS
AN AVERAGE OF THE PGTW, KNES AND ABRF ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35-55
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 10P IS LOCATED BETWEEN A
TROUGH WHICH IS NOW TO THE EAST, AND AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST; AND
UNDER AN AREA OF 15-20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS
HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT. THE OUTFLOW HAS BEEN CONSTRAINED BY THESE
FEATURES, HOWEVER ANIMATED SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING. TC 10P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING DUE
EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWARD AROUND TAU 48, RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL TURN AND ACCELERATION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE
SYSTEM IN BETWEEN NEW CALEDONIA AND VANUATU. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE VWS DECREASES AND THE OUTFLOW IMPROVES,
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY,
CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS, AND SHOULD REMAIN HIGH UNTIL THE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
CALEDONIA AROUND TAU 96. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE SOLE
OUTLIER BEING THE UKMO MODEL WHICH IS SLOW AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE
REST OF THE PACKAGE. THE GFDN AND GFS MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM MORE
SHARPLY AFTER TAU 72. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72 TO TAKE THESE SOLUTIONS INTO ACCOUNT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z AND 060900Z.//
=========================================================================
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120206 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 158.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 158.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.5S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.0S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.6S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.8S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.4S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.9S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.0S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 159.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE BANDING AND OVERALL
ORGANIZATION AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS SUBDUED. A 060554Z
SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS NOW WRAPPING
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED UPON THE IMPROVING SATELLITE
SIGNATURES AND DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 10P IS
LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS, AND APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES
EAST OF A POINT SOURCE. AN ANIMATED SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING MORE RADIAL IN NATURE BUT
FAVORS THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING EASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 24, AFTER WHICH AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM. THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM IN BETWEEN THE ISLANDS OF
NEW CALEDONIA AND VANUATU. AROUND TAU 96 THE TRACK SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTWARDLY AGAIN ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS UNTIL IT TRACKS OVER COOLER WATER SOUTH OF 24 DEGREES SOUTH
LATITUDE. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS TRACK SCENARIO, WITH THE FORECAST TRACK POSITIONED VERY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120206 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 006//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.7S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.1S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.1S 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.6S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.2S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.1S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.9S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
65 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES ABOUT 5 DEGREES SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (05-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST IS SUPPRESSING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS QUITE ROBUST, AS EVIDENCED
ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE VORTEX IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DIP BY TAU 36 AS AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER WESTERN SAMOA, ASSUMES
STEERING. BY TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL NUDGE THE SYSTEM ON A FLATTER, EASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
TC JASMINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO
TAU 72 AS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OPENS UP WITH A SWITCH IN THE
STEERING PATTERN BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTERWARDS WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS, INCLINED ON SPEEDING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH
CONSENSUS UP TO THE EXTENDED TAUS WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO
OFFSET NOGAPS UNLIKELY ACCELERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120207 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 007//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 164.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 164.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.6S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.8S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.4S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.9S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.7S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.0S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.3S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 165.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 24 NM WIDE RAGGED EYE.
ANALYSIS OF THE PAST MICROWAVE MOSAICS INDICATES THAT TC 10P FIRST
SPAWNED THE EYE FEATURE SOMEWHERE AROUND 07/1705Z, AS EVIDENT FROM
THE SSMI IMAGE DURING THAT TIME. MORE RECENT MICROWAVE DATA (070538Z
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120207 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 008//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 167.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 167.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.7S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.3S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 24.0S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 25.1S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.2S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.7S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 167.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A COMPACT, HIGHLY
SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A 15-NM EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND THE INITILAL INTENSITY
WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS 7 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UP TO TAU 48 BEFORE IT
GETS DEFLECTED EASTWARD BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCEPTIONALLY VIGOROUS. BEYOND TAU 12,
EXPOSURE TO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 72, TC JASMINE WILL COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(ET), COMPLETING ET BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS THAT CONTINUES
TO EXCEEDINGLY ACCELERATE THE VORTEX AT THE EXTENDED TAUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120208 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 009//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 20.6S 169.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 169.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.2S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.7S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.8S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.7S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.5S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.5S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 169.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A COMPACT,
HIGHLY AXISYMMETRIC, CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE BANDING EYE MEASURING
APPROXIMATELY 20 NM. A 080631Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS A
NEARLY UNIFORM RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE FEATURES IN
THE SYSTEMS PERIPHERIES. TC 10P HAS PRESENTED THIS CONVECTIVE
STRUCUTRE FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS (EVIDENT FROM THE MICROWAVE PASS
MOSAIC) SHORTLY AFTER IT WENT THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. SUCH CHARACTERISTICS LIKE, NEARLY CIRCULAR LARGE
EYE DIAMETER, SYMMETRIC ANNULUS OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE
LLCC, AND GENERAL LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEYOND THE
ANNULUS, INDICATE THAT TC JASMINE COULD BE CLASSIFIED AS AN ANNULAR
TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANALYSIS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS OF MSI INDICATE THAT
POSSIBLE MULTIPLE MESO-VORTICES HAVE BEEN CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
WITHIN THE LARGER EYE WHICH CAN PRODUCE MIXING OF EYEWALL AIR INTO
THE EYE AND VICE VERSA. THIS CONTINUED MIXING CAN CAUSE THE
FORMATION OF THE AXISYMMETRIC LARGE EYE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, OTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
REAMIN IN PLACE TO FURTHER SUPPORT THE ANNULAR STRUCTURE. SUCH
SYSTEMS AS THESE HISTORICALLY RESIST NORMAL WEAKENING TRENDS AND
TYPICALLY WEAKEN AT A RATE OF 12 KNOTS PER DAY (0.5 T-NUMBER PER
DAY). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI EYE AND SSMIS IMAGE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM KNES AND NFFN. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UP TO TAU 48
BEFORE IT GETS DEFLECTED EASTWARD BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURRENTLY HAVE
REACHED IT'S PEAK INTENSITY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AT A RATE OF
APPROXIMATELY 0.5 T-NUMBER PER DAY. BY TAU 72, TC JASMINE WILL
COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 96.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
SOLE EXCEPTIONS OF NOGAPS AND GFDN THAT CONTINUE TO EXCEEDINGLY
ACCELERATE THE VORTEX IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. ANALYSIS OF THE 500-1000
MB MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT TC JASMINE WITH UNDERGO BAROCLINIC
TEMPERTATUE ADVETION AND SUCUMMB TO THE MID-LATITUDE WEATERLY FLOW
BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P
(CYRIL) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120208 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 21.9S 170.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 170.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.4S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.8S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.8S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.4S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.8S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.0S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 171.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A COMPACT AND HIGHLY
AXISYMMETRIC CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE
MEASURING APPROXIMATELY 20 NM; HOWEVER, THE LAST FRAME SUGGESTS THAT
THE EYE MAY BE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A NEARLY UNIFORM RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
MINIMAL BANDING FEATURES OBSERVED ONLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE INFRARED EYE AND A 081746 SSMIS
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW, WITH AN ENHANCED IR
SATELLITE PRESENTATION VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF 12 HOURS PRIOR. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DESPITE SOME IMPINGEMENT OF OUTFLOW
ON THE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD SIDES EVIDENT IN ANIMATED SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST ON THE EQUATORWARD AND
EASTWARD SIDES. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UP TO TAU 36
BEFORE IT GETS DEFLECTED EASTWARD BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND AS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP SOUTH OF 24 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. BY TAU
72, TC JASMINE WILL COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE EXCEPTIONS THE GFS
MODEL WHICH BUILDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSES A
CYCLONIC TURN AROUND THIS EXTENSION. AFTER TAU 72, GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT DURING ETT, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
DECOUPLED AND BEGIN TO TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO COMPENSATE FOR THE GFS
SOLUTION, AND REFLECTS THE NORTHEASTWARDLY TURN AT TAU 96 AS NOTED
IN THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 31
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120209 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 171.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 171.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.9S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.9S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.6S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.7S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.5S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 24.0S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 171.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THIS
WEAKENING OF DEEP CONVECTION, IR IMAGERY AND A 090617Z SSMIS IMAGE
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM (APPROXIMATELY 90-NM
DIAMETER) WITH A 20-NM ROUND EYE AND TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED
ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM KNES
AND PGTW; HOWEVER, RECENT IMAGERY SUPPORTS A WEAKENING TREND AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26C). TC 10P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUT SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. NEAR
TAU 72, A STRONG STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND
PRODUCING AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOL SST (24-25C) AND
ENCOUNTERS DRIER, STABLE AIR. THERE IS NO INDICATION IN THE MODEL
FIELDS OR THE CYCLONE PHASE PRODUCTS THAT TC 10P WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION SO THIS FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TO A DISSIPATION
SCENARIO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT
DIVERGES SLIGHTLY BY TAU 96 DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120209 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 24.6S 171.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 171.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.6S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.3S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.4S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.1S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.9S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.1S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 172.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A THINNING OF THE
CONVECTIVE BAND IS OCCURRING AS WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOP EMPERATURES
HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW/KNES AND THE DIMINISHING EYEWALL
CONVECTION, ALL SHOWING A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY
REMAINS STRONG AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT 20 NM EYE FEATURE,
WHICH HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AND ACCELERATE IN LATER TAUS, AS TC 10P REMAINS
OVER A REGION OF UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (24-25
CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 10P CONTINUES TO HAVE
GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, HOWEVER A DRIER AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY INTO THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUT SHOULD TURN
EASTWARD AFTER TAU 12. NEAR TAU 48, A STRONG STR IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND PRODUCING AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48,
BUT DIVERGES BEYOND WITH NGPS/EGRR/GFS SHOWING A SHARPER RECURVATURE
TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMF
SOLUTION SHOWING A WEAKER TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND
102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120210 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 25.7S 172.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 172.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.3S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.5S 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.2S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.6S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 24.0S 177.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.7S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 173.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A
25-NM ROUND EYE. A 100604Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH
A 60-NM DIAMETER EYEWALL AND WEAK BANDING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE VISIBLE EYE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. MSI ALSO SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD (STABLE, COOLER AIR), WHICH IS BEGINNING TO
ADVECT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THIS MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, ALONG WITH COOLER SST, WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGES AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AND
THE TRACK BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN. AFTER TAU 72, TC 10P IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120210 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 26.2S 174.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S 174.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.2S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.8S 178.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.2S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.3S 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.9S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.8S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.2S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 174.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
CONSOLIDATION. THE CYCLONE REMAINS COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC AROUND A
WELL-DEFINED 20-NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE OVER THE EYE FEATURE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A CONGRUENT ESTIMATE OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BORDERED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WITH RIDGE AXES IN A ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
10P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A HYPER-EXTENDED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AN EVENTUAL BREAK IN THE
RIDGE AFTER TAU 48 WILL PULL THE CYCLONE EQUATORWARD INTO A COL AREA
CAUSING A DRASTIC REVERSAL IN STORM MOTION. CONCURRENTLY, VWS WILL
INCREASE AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE EQUATORWARD PORTION OF THE TRACK
WHERE THE MODEL ENVELOPE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS. WBAR IS THE
RIGHTMOST OUTLIER AND NOGAPS OFFERS AN EXTREME MOTION REVERSAL INTO
A LOOP CONFIGURATION. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF
CONSENSUS AND LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A PARTIAL AND
SHORT REVERSAL IN STORM MOTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120211 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 26.2S 176.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S 176.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.8S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.0S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.0S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.2S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.3S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.6S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.3S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 26.1S 177.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THAT THE PREVIOUSLY 20 NM WIDE EYE HAS NOW BECOME CLOUD
FILLED AND THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE IS BECOMING MORE DISORGANIZED. A
120551Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
FURTHERMORE, MSI SHOWS A FIELD OF COLD-AIR/STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WEST OF THE LLCC HELPING TO ERODE THE SYSTEMS CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES CENTER
FIXES ALONG WITH THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGREEABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 10P IS
APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES EAST OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD BUT
WESTERLY VWS HAS INCREASED TO 15-20 KNOTS. THE EFFECTS OF THE VWS
CAN BE SEEN FROM THE COMPARISON OF THE 37 GHZ TO THE 91 GHZ IMAGES
IN THE LAST SIX HOURS OF MICROWAVE DATA. CLEARLY, THE SYSTEM IS
TILTED TO THE EAST AS ALTITUDE INCREASES. THIS WILL ACT TO DIMINISH
THE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO EXHAUST AT THE UPPER-LEVELS AND THEREBY HELP
TO WEAKEN INTENSITY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH A LACK OF CONNECTION EQUATORWARD BUT BETTER FLOW
POLEWARD. TC JASMINE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
RECENT TRACK MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO TRACK
TOWARDS A COL REGION BETWEEN THE WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING RIDGING TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO THE WEAKNESS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
DUE TO INCREASING VWS. BY TAU 96, TC 10P WILL RE-CURVE TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING TO THE
EAST. TC JASMINE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120 AS
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SUCCUMB TO INCREASING VWS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
BASICALLY SPLIT INTO THREE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH ALL BUT THE WBAR
INDICATING EQUATORWARD MOTION WITH A RE-CURVE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN TRACK EQUATORWARD AND THEREFORE RE-
CURVE FASTER THAN THE EGRR, JGSM, AND GFS. BASED ON A PRELIMINARY
VERIFICATION OF THE GFS CURRENTLY HANDLING THE PORTRAYAL OF THE COL
REGION BETTER THAN THE NOGAPS FROM A COMPARISON TO THE 110000Z PGTW
UPPER-LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS, THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE AIDS
ENVELOPE WHICH PORTRAYS A SLOWER RE-CURVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LAYS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY INSIDE DURING TAUS 48-
72, AS WELL AS SLOWER DURING TAUS 96-120 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NOGAPS/GFDN ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120211 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 25.9S 178.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 178.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.2S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.4S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.6S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.7S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.3S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.3S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.5S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 179.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED FROM THE MAIN
CONVECTION THAT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF INCREASING (10-20 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A HYPER-EXTENDED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU 36, A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND RECURVE
INTO THE COL ZONE. DUE TO THE HEIGHTENED VWS, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO A MINIMUM OF 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER, TOWARD THE EXTENDED TAUS, AS THE
CYCLONE TRACKS EQUATORWARD INTO WARMER WATERS, IT IS ANTICIPATED TO
REGAIN INTENSITY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT IN
THE TIGHTNESS OF RECURVATURE. WBAR IS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN
EASTWARD STRAIGHT RUNNER SCENARIO. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO
THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120212 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 24.5S 179.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 179.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.5S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.5S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.7S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.0S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.7S 177.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.8S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 25.6S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 179.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
RE-BUILDING OVER WHAT WAS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE 120538Z SSMIS 91 GHZ AND 37 GHZ IMAGES SHOW THAT
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC WITH A LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE 120532Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS
UNDER MODERATE (20 KNOTS) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TC JASMINE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EQUATORWARD TOWARDS A COL REGION BETWEEN A STR TO THE WEST AND EAST.
TC 10P SHOULD CONTINUE THE EQUATORWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AND MINIMALLY INTENSIFY AS VWS DECREASES AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE INFLUENCED BY THE BUILDING
STR FROM THE EAST AS THE STR TO THE WEST ERODES. THIS SHOULD PUSH
THE SYSTEM BACK POLEWARD AS IT STEERS UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
BY TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH AND TC
10P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC JASMINE SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT IN
THE TIGHTNESS OF RECURVATURE. WBAR IS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN
EASTWARD STRAIGHT RUNNER SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN-LINE
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OUT TILL TAU 24. AFTER WHICH, THE FORECAST
TRACK LAYS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS DURING TAUS 36-48.
FINALLY, THE TRACK FORECAST DURING TAUS 96-120 LIES IN BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND CONSENSUS. FORECAST INTENSITY IS HIGHER THAN THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DUE TO IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
122100Z AND 130900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120212 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 23.5S 177.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S 177.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.6S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.9S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.2S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.2S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.6S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 23.5S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 25.2S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 177.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED SHALLOW CONVECTION THAT IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED EAST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WAS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS
BEGUN TO STREAM OUT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 10P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS
EXPECTED TO GRAVITATE TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE, REVERSE TRACK,
AND LOOP BACK POLEWARD. DUE TO THE RELAXED VWS AND WARMING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, IT WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOOP THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES BACK POLEWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, ALL
INDICATE A LOOP PATTERN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF TURNING. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD ECMWF.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120213 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 22.1S 176.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 176.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.2S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.6S 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.5S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.8S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.3S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 24.3S 174.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 176.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHALLOW
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A 130526Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
EXTREMELY FRAGMENTED, SMALL POCKETS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION EAST OF
THE LLCC AND INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS TO THE WEST AND
NORTH. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE
THE AIRMASS TO THE WEST AND NORTH MAY BE DRIER, THE LLCC IS TAPPING
INTO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTAINED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
CONVERGENCE ZONE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EQUATORWARD. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE GROUPING OF PGTW AND KNES CENTER FIXES
ALONG WITH THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 10P IS A FEW DEGREES
EAST OF A POINT-SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING TO THE EAST. TC JASMINE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EQUATORWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE WEST AND FURTHER TOWARDS A COL REGION. BY TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD LOOP COUNTERCLOCKWISE AS A STR BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST
AND TC 10P STEERS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ON A POLEWARD
TRAJECTORY. BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM SHOULD PICK UP POLEWARD TRACK SPEED
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH. TC 10P SHOULD
EXPERIENCE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE STR AXIS WHERE VWS WILL EASE AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) BECOME WARMER (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS). BY TAU 72,
VWS WILL INCREASE, AND SST DECREASE, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS MORE
POLEWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN GROUPINGS WITH THE NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR RE-
CURVING WESTWARDS AND DISSIPATING FURTHER SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF,
JGSM, AND GFS INDICATE A TIGHT LOOP AND SOUTHEASTWARDS DISSIPATION.
THE WBAR REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN EASTWARD TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO BE MORE IN-LINE
WITH THE ECMWF DUE TO MORE RELIABLE PAST TRACK VERIFICATION IN
REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM. THE TAU 96 POSITION IS RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE SOUTHWEST TRACKING AIDS MEMBERS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z AND 140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120213 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 21.2S 176.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 176.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.7S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.4S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.0S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.2S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.5S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 26.8S 175.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 176.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST
OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RECENT
FLARE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 131641Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS THE LLCC REMAINS
WELL ORGANIZED, WITH TIGHTLY CURVED INFLOW APPARENT. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND THE RECENT
INCREASE IN CONVECTION, SUGGESTING THE INTENSITY FOR TC 10P REMAINS
AROUND 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW
AND KNES, IN ASSOCIATION WITH IR IMAGERY. TC 10P CONTINUES TRACKING
AROUND A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO SLOW OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS A DEVELOPING STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 10P BUILDS
OVER TONGA, CAUSING A SHIFT IN TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
HAS BEEN ENHANCED RECENTLY BY A TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF TC 10P. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, TC 10P
WILL SEE A DECREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, TC 10P WILL TRACK INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, ALL LEADING TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND BEYOND TAU 36.
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START AROUND TAU 72 WITH
FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK TRANSITION, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN THE SPREAD
OF AIDS AND THE TIGHTNESS OF THE RECURVATURE. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS
MORE CLOSELY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z AND 142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120214 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 21.3S 175.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 175.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.4S 176.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.8S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.6S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.5S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 25.7S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 175.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, JASMINE, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM STALLING
AND GENERATING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE TONGAN ISLAND CHAIN.
SURFACE REPORTS FROM FUAAMOTU, TONGA (NFTF), SHOW NEARLY 24 HOURS
OF CONTINUOUS RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH SUSTAINED NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO STORM FORCE. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS BASED ON DVORAK
ASSESSMENTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. A 140514Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS
GOOD ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW LEVEL BANDING AND INDICATES THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. THE 140000Z
PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS A SINGULAR OUTFLOW
POINT ABOVE THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE REGION IS 27 DEGREES. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVING OUTFLOW SITUATION, WITH THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING RADIAL OUTFLOW DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 10P IS
HEMMED IN BETWEEN TWO LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES AND AS A RESULT
HAS SHOWN SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST IS BUILDING, HOWEVER, AND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN DRIVING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM AND TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE MEDIUM TERM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO
SUSTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 24 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE,
BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO OVER 20 KNOTS BY 24 DEGREES
SOUTH, AND TO OVER 30 KNOTS BY 25 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. THE
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL COINCIDE WITH FALLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WHICH DROP TO NON-SUPPORTIVE LEVELS NEAR 25 DEGREES
SOUTH. HENCE, TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE
OVER WATER AFTER TAU 48. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPREAD WIDELY DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT THERE IS GOOD QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT ON
A WESTERLY TRACK COMMENCING SOON, AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120214 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 21.3S 176.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 176.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.9S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.8S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 24.1S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.2S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 27.1S 174.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 176.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM
WEST OF TONGA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FOR THE PAST
12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES
FROM PGTW/KNES INDICATING 35 KNOTS. A 140908Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED
THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND
SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY. TC 10P REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN TWO
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES AND HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE
PAST 36 HOURS. A BUILDING ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE TC 10P TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE SHORT TERM, AND EVENTUALLY
TURN THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MID TERM. INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH COMPETING INFLUENCES FROM WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND
TAU 36 DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MIXED WITH HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, DEVELOPING SOUTH OF 25 DEGREES SOUTH, WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE TC 10P BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. MODEL AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z AND 152100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120215 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 21.4S 177.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 177.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.1S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.2S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.2S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 25.1S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 177.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
WEST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW DISPLACED TO THE EAST. THIS ASSESSMENT IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTS LOW
LEVEL BANDING INTO THE LLCC AND A SMALL BUT DEEP CONVECTIVE CELL TO
THE EAST. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM TONGA SHOW THAT PRESSURE HAS
RISEN TO 1009 MB AND 10-MINUTE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 14 KNOTS. THE
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS BASED ON DVORAK
ASSESSMENTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MID-WAY BETWEEN A RIDGE AND
TROUGH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS, BUT INCREASES
SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE REGION IS 27
DEGREES. TC 10P HAS CONTINUED TO SHOWN SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COMPETING ANTICYCLONES. THE ANTICYCLONE TO
THE EAST IS BUILDING, HOWEVER, AND TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TRACKING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 24 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO OVER 20 KNOTS BY 24 DEGREES SOUTH, AND TO OVER 30
KNOTS BY 25 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. THE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL COINCIDE WITH FALLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH
DROP TO NON-SUPPORTIVE LEVELS NEAR 25 DEGREES SOUTH. HENCE, TC 10P
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER AFTER TAU 48.
TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPREAD DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT
GENERALLY AGREES ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN COMMENCING SOON, AND
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND
160900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20120215 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 22.7S 177.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 177.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.8S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.0S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 177.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS COMMENCED ITS
RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES AS CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISPLACED
SOUTHEASTWARD, PARTIALLY EXPOSING AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE HAS STRAYED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IT IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE POLEWARD MOTION DEEPER INTO THE
WESTERLIES, THE VWS WILL FURTHER INCREASE, WHICH WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE TC 10P WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS
12 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_jasmine.htm | Updated: 8 February 2012 |