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![]() Tropical Cyclone KOJI-JONI Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20120307 05:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S 97.1E TO 17.0S 89.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 96.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 99.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 96.9E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 062342Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 070226Z ASCAT 25- KM IMAGE SHOWED 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE LLCC WITH STRONGER 35-40 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 080500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20120307 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070451ZMAR2012// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 96.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 96.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.7S 93.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.4S 90.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.0S 88.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.9S 85.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.2S 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 22.3S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 25.0S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 95.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 070226Z ASCAT 25-KM IMAGE SHOWED 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE LLCC WITH STRONGER 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 070226Z ASCAT IMAGE, DUE TO ITS LOCATION UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF MIDLATITUDE SHORT- WAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES AFTER TAU 36. AFTER TAU 72, TC 16S WILL RE-CURVE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. AFTER TAU 24, TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL STR AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING (STRONG) VWS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGES NEAR THE RE-CURVE POINT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER AND EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE (AFTER TAU 120) AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 070451Z MAR 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20120307 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002// REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 93.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 93.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.9S 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.6S 88.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.2S 86.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.2S 84.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.3S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.5S 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.8S 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 93.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CONVECTIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH OUTFLOW PRIMARILY ALONG THE POLEWARD SEMI-CIRCLE. A 071458Z AMSU-B 85 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH 10-15 KNOTS OF VWS. DESPITE ITS PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS, THE OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY BEING CONSTRAINED BY A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, RESULTING IN AN INTENSIFICATION RATE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 071458Z ASCAT IMAGE DUE TO ITS LOCATION UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 16S WILL RE-CURVE SOUTHWARD AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN MOVES THROUGH. TC 16S SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS AT THIS TIME AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MINIMAL VWS. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGES NEAR THE RE-CURVE POINT. THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS JUST SLIGHTLY INSIDE CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE (AFTER TAU 120) AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20120308 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 90.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 90.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.3S 88.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.2S 85.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.3S 83.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 19.4S 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.1S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 23.9S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 26.9S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 90.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON KNES AND APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A 080346Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 45 KNOT WINDS WITH STRONG (30 TO 35 KNOT) GRADIENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS TC 16S IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK OUTFLOW WITH NO STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AT THAT TIME, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TC 16S TO TURN POLEWARD. TC KOJI SHOULD CONTINUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE INITIAL 72 HOURS AND THEN DIVERGES SLIGHTLY WITH THE TURN POLEWARD. GFS PREDICTS MORE OF A RECURVATURE SCENARIO. HOWEVER THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20120308 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 88.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 88.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.3S 85.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.0S 83.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 18.9S 81.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.0S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.1S 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 24.3S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 26.3S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 87.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 300 NM DIAMETER CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 081619Z ASCAT PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS, ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 16S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER APPROXIMATELY 15-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH HAS HELD THE INTENSIFICATION TO A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE ASSESSMENT OF IMPROVED OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, AND SUGGESTS THAT THIS IMPROVING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AS IT NEARS THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TAUS 36-48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS. AFTER THIS TIME, TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT VWS RESULTING IN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW, RESULTING IN A TURN OF THE LLCC TOWARDS THE WEST. TC 16S SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS MODEL, THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TO INDICATE THE RAPID WEAKENING AND WESTWARD TURN. THIS FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND IN CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20120309 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 86.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 86.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.9S 83.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 18.8S 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.1S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.8S 78.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 23.9S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 26.4S 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 28.9S 76.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 85.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS UNDER DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION. THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE LLCC, WITH UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALONG THE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD CHANNELS INCREASING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES, HOWEVER THE LLCC IS BEING OBSCURED BY CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW INDICATING 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 16S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER APPROXIMATELY 15-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH HAS HELD THE INTENSIFICATION TO A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS. AS TC 16S TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS, TRACKING MORE SOUTHWARD BEYOND TAU 48, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MIXED WITH HIGH LEVELS OF VWS (30 PLUS KNOTS) WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DISSIPATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 96, WEAKENING BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20120309 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 84.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 84.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 19.0S 82.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.4S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.5S 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.7S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.2S 78.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 27.3S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 30.1S 76.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 83.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 925 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS OBSCURED UNDERNEATH TIGHTLY WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTION. A 091557Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE ABOVE AMSU IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 16S IS NOW LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO BENEFITTED FROM IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VWS ALONG WITH DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 72, THE WEAKENED LLCC IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW. TC 16S WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH NOGAPS AND WBAR BEING THE WESTWARD MOST OUTLIERS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST INSIDE (EAST) OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR NOGAPS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20120310 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 81.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 81.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.0S 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 22.4S 78.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 24.4S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 26.3S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 28.7S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 31.3S 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 80.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MSI AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 60-65 KNOTS. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE STR. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO COOLER SST (LESS THAN 24C) AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20120310 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 79.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 79.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 22.4S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 24.1S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 25.9S 78.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 27.1S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 28.8S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 79.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 930 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE LOWER SPECTRUM OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES INCLUDING PGTW, KNES, FIMP, AND CIMSS; THIS IS TO REFLECT OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS JUST CROSSED INTO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF RAPIDLY INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 16S IS BEGINNING TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A MORE POLEWARD TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 12, GRADUALLY WEAKEN, AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 DUE TO THE STRONG VWS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF WBAR THAT CONTINUES TO TRACK THE VORTEX RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20120311 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 23.1S 79.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 79.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 25.3S 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 26.9S 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 28.7S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 30.2S 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 79.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1035 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. A 110427Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, YET BROAD LLCC, WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MSI WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 16S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 24C) AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING, STRONG (30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20120311 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 25.5S 80.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 80.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 27.7S 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 29.9S 84.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 26.1S 81.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1200 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION WEAKENED AND DECOUPLED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM AN 111654Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWING A FULLY-EXPOSED, IRREGULAR LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED TO BELOW 25 CELSIUS. TC 16S IS NOW TRACKING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECAY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 120900Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20120312 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 27.4S 81.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 81.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 29.5S 83.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 82.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1310 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 16S IS LOCATED UNDER UPPER- LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING OVER COOL SST (23C). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAK, ELONGATED SIGNATURE IN MSI AND A 120407Z METOP-A IMAGE. DESPITE SOME CONFLICTING ASCAT DATA, WHICH SHOWS 40-45 KNOT WINDS AT 120408Z, THE LLCC IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE HOSTILE VWS AND SST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 21 FEET.//
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Document: tropical_cyclone_koji.htm | Updated: 13 March 2012 |