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Tropical Cyclone KOJI-JONI
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone KOJI-JONI Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20120307 05:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S 97.1E TO 17.0S 89.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070430Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 96.9E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
99.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 96.9E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTH
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 062342Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
IMAGE SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 070226Z ASCAT 25-
KM IMAGE SHOWED 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE LLCC WITH STRONGER 35-40
KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE LLCC IS
LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120307 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070451ZMAR2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 96.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 96.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.7S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.4S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.0S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.9S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.2S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.3S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.0S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 95.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 070226Z ASCAT 25-KM IMAGE SHOWED 25-30 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE LLCC WITH STRONGER 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER
WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 070226Z ASCAT
IMAGE, DUE TO ITS LOCATION UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL
AS A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF MIDLATITUDE SHORT-
WAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES AFTER TAU
36. AFTER TAU 72, TC 16S WILL RE-CURVE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEP TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. AFTER
TAU 24, TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL STR AND
SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING (STRONG) VWS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGES NEAR THE RE-CURVE
POINT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH
OF 30S LATITUDE (AFTER TAU 120) AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 070451Z MAR 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120307 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 93.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 93.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.9S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.6S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.2S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.2S 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.3S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.5S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.8S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 93.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM SOUTHWEST OF
COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A LARGE CONVECTIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH OUTFLOW
PRIMARILY ALONG THE POLEWARD SEMI-CIRCLE. A 071458Z AMSU-B 85 GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
LLCC IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH
10-15 KNOTS OF VWS. DESPITE ITS PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS, THE
OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY BEING CONSTRAINED BY A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN, RESULTING IN AN INTENSIFICATION RATE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
THE 071458Z ASCAT IMAGE DUE TO ITS LOCATION UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40
KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 16S
WILL RE-CURVE SOUTHWARD AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INDIAN
OCEAN MOVES THROUGH. TC 16S SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS AT THIS TIME AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MINIMAL VWS.
AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VWS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT
DIVERGES NEAR THE RE-CURVE POINT. THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS JUST SLIGHTLY INSIDE CONSENSUS AFTER TAU
72. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL THE
SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE (AFTER TAU 120) AND BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120308 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 90.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 90.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.3S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.2S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.3S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.4S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.1S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.9S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.9S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 90.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON KNES
AND APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A 080346Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 45 KNOT
WINDS WITH STRONG (30 TO 35 KNOT) GRADIENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS TC 16S IS
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK OUTFLOW WITH NO STRONG
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AT
THAT TIME, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE STEERING
RIDGE AND ALLOW TC 16S TO TURN POLEWARD. TC KOJI SHOULD CONTINUALLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER TAU
72, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE INITIAL 72 HOURS AND THEN
DIVERGES SLIGHTLY WITH THE TURN POLEWARD. GFS PREDICTS MORE OF A
RECURVATURE SCENARIO. HOWEVER THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120308 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 88.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.3S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.0S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.9S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.0S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.1S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.3S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 26.3S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 87.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A 300 NM DIAMETER CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 081619Z
ASCAT PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS, ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 16S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
FIVE DEGREES NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
DOWNSTREAM. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER APPROXIMATELY 15-20 KNOTS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH HAS HELD THE INTENSIFICATION TO A
LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS
THE ASSESSMENT OF IMPROVED OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, AND
SUGGESTS THAT THIS IMPROVING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 16S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AS IT NEARS THE
RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TAUS 36-48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS
PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS. AFTER THIS TIME, TC 16S IS FORECAST TO
TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT VWS RESULTING
IN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW,
RESULTING IN A TURN OF THE LLCC TOWARDS THE WEST. TC 16S SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
MODEL, THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS TO INDICATE THE RAPID WEAKENING AND WESTWARD TURN. THIS
FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND IN CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 081800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120309 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 86.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 86.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.9S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.8S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.1S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.8S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.9S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.4S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 28.9S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 85.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS UNDER DEVELOPING DEEP
CONVECTION. THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE LLCC, WITH UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALONG THE
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD CHANNELS INCREASING OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES,
HOWEVER THE LLCC IS BEING OBSCURED BY CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW
INDICATING 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 16S IS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER
APPROXIMATELY 15-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH HAS
HELD THE INTENSIFICATION TO A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. TC 16S
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 70 KNOTS. AS TC 16S TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS, TRACKING MORE
SOUTHWARD BEYOND TAU 48, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MIXED
WITH HIGH LEVELS OF VWS (30 PLUS KNOTS) WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. DISSIPATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 96,
WEAKENING BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120309 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 84.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 84.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.0S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.4S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.5S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.7S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.2S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 27.3S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 30.1S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 83.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 925 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS OBSCURED
UNDERNEATH TIGHTLY WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTION. A 091557Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
ABOVE AMSU IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 16S IS NOW LOCATED BENEATH THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO BENEFITTED FROM
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
TURN POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN VWS ALONG WITH DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 72,
THE WEAKENED LLCC IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW. TC 16S WILL
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH NOGAPS AND
WBAR BEING THE WESTWARD MOST OUTLIERS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST
INSIDE (EAST) OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR NOGAPS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120310 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 81.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.0S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.4S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.4S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.3S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.7S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 31.3S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 80.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MSI AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MSI WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS AND IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 60-65 KNOTS.
TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36
AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH,
WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE STR. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO COOLER SST (LESS THAN 24C) AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU
72 AND TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120310 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 79.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 79.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.4S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.1S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.9S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.1S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.8S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 79.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 930 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WAS BASED ON THE LOWER SPECTRUM OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES INCLUDING PGTW, KNES, FIMP, AND
CIMSS; THIS IS TO REFLECT OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS JUST CROSSED INTO THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF RAPIDLY INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 16S IS BEGINNING TO
ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST, WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A MORE
POLEWARD TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 12, GRADUALLY WEAKEN, AND DISSIPATE BY
TAU 72 DUE TO THE STRONG VWS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF WBAR THAT
CONTINUES TO TRACK THE VORTEX RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120311 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 23.1S 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.3S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.9S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 28.7S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 30.2S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 79.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1035 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. A 110427Z AMSU IMAGE
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, YET BROAD LLCC, WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MSI
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM KNES
AND PGTW. TC 16S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST
AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
16S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (LESS
THAN 24C) AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING, STRONG (30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z AND 120900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120311 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 25.5S 80.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 80.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 27.7S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 29.9S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 26.1S 81.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1200 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY
EXPOSED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION WEAKENED AND DECOUPLED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
FROM AN 111654Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWING A FULLY-EXPOSED, IRREGULAR
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED TO BELOW 25 CELSIUS. TC 16S IS NOW
TRACKING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECAY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNING
AT 120900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120312 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (KOJI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 27.4S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 81.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 29.5S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 82.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1310 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 16S IS LOCATED UNDER UPPER-
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING OVER COOL SST (23C). THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAK, ELONGATED
SIGNATURE IN MSI AND A 120407Z METOP-A IMAGE. DESPITE SOME
CONFLICTING ASCAT DATA, WHICH SHOWS 40-45 KNOT WINDS AT 120408Z, THE
LLCC IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE HOSTILE VWS AND SST. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 21 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_koji.htm | Updated: 13 March 2012 |