Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone KUENA Southern Hemisphere Summary

WTXS21 PGTW 20120605 21:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.2S 61.3E TO 8.9S 55.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 052000Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 61.0E.  THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S
61.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 61.3E, APPROXIMATELY 695 NM WEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SHOWN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) MOVE UNDER THE DENSE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 050444Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL
DEFINED, FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES NEAR THE LLCC, AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC
IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
DIFFLUENCE, WITH LIGHT (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IF
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS EXPECTED TRACK, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM IS PROVIDING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND AN
ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING AMPLE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS VWS HAS RELAXED, ALLOWING FOR THE
BANDING TO REFORM OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25-30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT DECREASE IN VWS, GENERAL TRACK
MOTION INTO CONTINUED WEAK VWS, AND CONSOLIDATION OF BANDING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120606 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 9.3S 59.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 59.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 9.4S 57.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 9.5S 56.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 9.4S 55.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 8.9S 54.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 7.2S 52.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 4.5S 49.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 58.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEPENED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED BANDING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IS EVIDENT ON A 052149Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AGGREGATE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 20S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THIS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE A SECONDARY STR
EXITING FROM MOGADISHU ASSUMES STEERING AND DEFLECTS THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD. DURING THIS TIME, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY
TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST 48 BEFORE THE MODELS FAN OUT. WBAR IS A LEFT OUTLIER AND EGRR
IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. IN VIEW OF THIS MODEL SPREAD, THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48, THEN POOR
CONFIDENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 052121Z JUN 12 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 052130) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.    //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120606 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KUENA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KUENA) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 10.3S 57.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 57.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 10.4S 56.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 10.2S 54.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 9.9S 53.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 9.5S 52.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 8.1S 50.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 5.1S 48.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 57.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KUENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SEYCHELLES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TC 20S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AFTER PEAKING IN INTENSITY NEAR 06/09Z. A 060604Z
METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTED A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAD DEPICTED A WEAK, RAGGED EYE. RECENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE; HOWEVER, A 061022Z AMSU IMAGE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT INTENSITY BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS AND A 060740Z OSCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWING
ONLY 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE 45-55 KNOT DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND THE SCATTEROMETER DATA BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 20S IS CURRENT
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 AS THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL WEAKENS BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72
DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 48, TC 20S
SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING AND TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR AND THE
UKMET TRACKERS, WHICH PRESENT UNLIKELY TRACK SCENARIOS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND
071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120607 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KUENA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KUENA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 9.5S 56.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S 56.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 9.5S 54.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 9.3S 53.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 8.9S 52.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 8.2S 50.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 9.5S 55.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KUENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH OF THE SEYCHELLES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARDS AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
HOWEVER, A 070018Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE CLEARLY DEPICTS THE LLCC TO BE
EXPOSED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FLARING CONVECTION.
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TC 20S HAS MARKEDLY WEAKENED. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS
SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW AND KNES CENTER FIX LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES,
RANGING FROM 45-55 KNOTS, DUE TO THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC KUENA IS APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. THE FLARING
CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE FUELED BY CONTINUED SPEED DIVERGENCE ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR ENHANCED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO TROUGHING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODERATE (20 KNOTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS PROVIDING FOR TOO MUCH OF
AN OBSTACLE FOR TC 20S TO OVERCOME. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AS THE TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM
THE SYSTEM. TC KUENA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARDS AS THE TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS
AND ALLOWS THE STR AXIS TO ORIENTATE WEST-EAST. DURING THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SETUP OVER
SOUTHERN AFRICA AND RE-ORIENTATE THE STR AXIS MORE NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW TC 20S TO DRIFT GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 20S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS VWS REMAINS
MODERATE OVER THE FORECAST PATH AND MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY STIFLE ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE BUILDING. TC 20S SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36 AND BE FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
WITH WBAR DEFLECTING TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO THE RIDGING AND EGRR
REMAINING RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW). THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST AGREES WITH THE CONW WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TO THE RIGHT
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20120607 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KUENA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KUENA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z --- NEAR 8.7S 55.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S 55.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 8.1S 54.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 8.6S 55.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KUENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH OF THE SEYCHELLES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARDS AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN STEADILY TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED 150 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND HAS CONTINUALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
LLCC REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED, HOWEVER A 070817Z OSCAT PASS INDICATES
THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE QUICKLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH
A MAXIMUM OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS IDENTIFIED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 20S IS LOCATED UNDER A STR AXIS, WITH LOW TO MODERATE
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AS TC 20S TRACKS NORTHWESTERLY,
VWS WILL INCREASE, KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION FROM RE-DEVELOPING. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK UNTIL THE LLCC FULLY DISSIPATES. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 14 FEET.//