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![]() Tropical Cyclone KUENA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20120605 21:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.2S 61.3E TO 8.9S 55.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 052000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 61.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 61.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 61.3E, APPROXIMATELY 695 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SHOWN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVE UNDER THE DENSE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 050444Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED, FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES NEAR THE LLCC, AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE DIFFLUENCE, WITH LIGHT (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS EXPECTED TRACK, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS VWS HAS RELAXED, ALLOWING FOR THE BANDING TO REFORM OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25-30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT DECREASE IN VWS, GENERAL TRACK MOTION INTO CONTINUED WEAK VWS, AND CONSOLIDATION OF BANDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 062130Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120606 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 9.3S 59.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 59.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 9.4S 57.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 9.5S 56.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 9.4S 55.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 8.9S 54.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 7.2S 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 4.5S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 58.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED BANDING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IS EVIDENT ON A 052149Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE AND LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AGGREGATE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 20S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE A SECONDARY STR EXITING FROM MOGADISHU ASSUMES STEERING AND DEFLECTS THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD. DURING THIS TIME, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 48 BEFORE THE MODELS FAN OUT. WBAR IS A LEFT OUTLIER AND EGRR IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. IN VIEW OF THIS MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48, THEN POOR CONFIDENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 052121Z JUN 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 052130) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120606 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KUENA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KUENA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 10.3S 57.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 57.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 10.4S 56.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 10.2S 54.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 9.9S 53.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 9.5S 52.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 8.1S 50.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 5.1S 48.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 57.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KUENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SEYCHELLES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TC 20S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AFTER PEAKING IN INTENSITY NEAR 06/09Z. A 060604Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTED A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD DEPICTED A WEAK, RAGGED EYE. RECENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE; HOWEVER, A 061022Z AMSU IMAGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT INTENSITY BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS AND A 060740Z OSCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWING ONLY 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE 45-55 KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE SCATTEROMETER DATA BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 20S IS CURRENT TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WEAKENS BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 48, TC 20S SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING AND TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR AND THE UKMET TRACKERS, WHICH PRESENT UNLIKELY TRACK SCENARIOS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120607 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KUENA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KUENA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 9.5S 56.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S 56.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 9.5S 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 9.3S 53.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 8.9S 52.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 8.2S 50.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 9.5S 55.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KUENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH OF THE SEYCHELLES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARDS AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 070018Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE CLEARLY DEPICTS THE LLCC TO BE EXPOSED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FLARING CONVECTION. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TC 20S HAS MARKEDLY WEAKENED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW AND KNES CENTER FIX LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, RANGING FROM 45-55 KNOTS, DUE TO THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC KUENA IS APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. THE FLARING CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE FUELED BY CONTINUED SPEED DIVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR ENHANCED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO TROUGHING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODERATE (20 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS PROVIDING FOR TOO MUCH OF AN OBSTACLE FOR TC 20S TO OVERCOME. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS THE TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM. TC KUENA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARDS AS THE TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS AND ALLOWS THE STR AXIS TO ORIENTATE WEST-EAST. DURING THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SETUP OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA AND RE-ORIENTATE THE STR AXIS MORE NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW TC 20S TO DRIFT GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 20S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS VWS REMAINS MODERATE OVER THE FORECAST PATH AND MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY STIFLE ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE BUILDING. TC 20S SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36 AND BE FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH WBAR DEFLECTING TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO THE RIDGING AND EGRR REMAINING RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW). THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AGREES WITH THE CONW WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TO THE RIGHT TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20120607 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KUENA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KUENA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 8.7S 55.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S 55.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 8.1S 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 8.6S 55.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KUENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH OF THE SEYCHELLES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARDS AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN STEADILY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED 150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HAS CONTINUALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LLCC REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED, HOWEVER A 070817Z OSCAT PASS INDICATES THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE QUICKLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A MAXIMUM OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS IDENTIFIED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 20S IS LOCATED UNDER A STR AXIS, WITH LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AS TC 20S TRACKS NORTHWESTERLY, VWS WILL INCREASE, KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION FROM RE-DEVELOPING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK UNTIL THE LLCC FULLY DISSIPATES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 14 FEET.//
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Document: tropical_cyclone_kuena.htm | Updated: 30 June 2012 |