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Tropical Cyclone LUA
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Tropical Cyclone LUA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS22 PGTW 20120312 23:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122151Z MAR 12//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 122200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 165 NM RADIUS OF 18.0S 115.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 122130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 115.5E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S
114.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 115.3E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 121628Z OSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC, WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN A BROAD, MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE
CIRCULATION, HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CONSOLIDATED. THIS SAME IMAGE SHOWS
30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, WITH HIGHER
WIND VALUES FURTHER EAST ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT COMPRESSION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS JUST NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION ARE FAVORABLE (30 DEGREES CELSIUS). DUE TO CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 128.0E.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120313 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 115.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 115.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.0S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.4S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.7S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.1S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.9S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.0S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 114.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, (LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION AND DEEPENING
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, APRF, AND KNES, WHICH RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS AND ARE
RISING. TWO SHIP REPORTS JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND A
130202Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SUPPORT A 35 KNOT INTENSITY. THE ASCAT
IMAGE ALSO REVEALS HIGHER WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A
122226Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING SURROUNDING THE LLCC
ON THREE SIDES AND GENERALLY GOOD SYMMETRY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, WITH A SUPERB EQUATORWARD
CHANNEL VENTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO THE BAY OF
BENGAL. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN TC 17S AND
THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE OFF-SHORE OF AUSTRALIA'S TOP END. THE 130000Z
PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS TC 17S JUST BARELY TO
THE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF APPROXIMATELY
10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION ARE 29 TO 30 DEGREES. SYSTEM MOTION HAS BEEN SLOW AND ERRATIC
DUE TO WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 25S 105E HAS BEEN
DOMINATING RECENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE THE STORM TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SHORT TERM. BY TAU 48 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE DEEPER INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AND THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) WILL BUILD OVER THE TIMOR SEA, SHIFTING THE
DOMINANT STEERING FORCE TO THE NER, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE STORM TO
DOUBLE-BACK TOWARDS THE PORT HEDLAND REGION. THE ALONG-TRACK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE INDICATES THAT TC 17S WILL INTENSIFY
SLOWLY AND STEADILY. EARLY TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT, BUT THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY COMPLEX
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PATTERN MAKES FOR BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 122251Z MAR 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 122300) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120313 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 113.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 113.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.6S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.2S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.3S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.9S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.4S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.5S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 29.0S 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 113.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED RAPIDLY NORTHWESTWARD AND FRAGMENTED.
A 131623Z TRMM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH TIGHTLY CURVED
SPIRAL BANDING. CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, AS WELL
AS RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE OUTFLOW HAS REMAINS EXCELLENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE POLEWARD
DIRECTION. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 17S IS JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM
MOTION HAS BEEN SLOW AND ERRATIC DUE TO WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE STEERING MOTION RECENTLY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE THE STORM TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE SHORT
TERM. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD, AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO TAKE OVER THE STEERING FLOW.
THIS CHANGE WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TC 17S TO STEADILY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE GFDN AND UKMO
MODELS ARE OUTLIERS TO THE NORTH, BUT THESE TRACKS REPRESENT THE
SAME FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120314 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 112.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 112.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.8S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.5S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.5S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.3S 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.7S 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.4S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 31.2S 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 112.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IS BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IS BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND AN ANTICYCLONE, LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST, IS
CREATING MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE LLCC
REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED BUT HAS STRUGGLED UNDER THE VWS TO ORGANIZE
ITS VERTICAL STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
EXCELLENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK
BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHWEST HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE STEERING MOTION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK THE STORM TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE SHORT TERM. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD, AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
IS FORECAST TO TAKE OVER THE STEERING FLOW. THIS SHIFT IN STEERING
INFLUENCES WITH CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. DECREASING VWS WILL CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, ALLOWING A STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH LANDFALL, AROUND TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72, INCREASING LAND
EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO A DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120314 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 112.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 112.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.6S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.5S 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.1S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.2S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.4S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 27.2S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 112.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, (LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TC LUA IS ENTERING ITS ANTICIPATED TURN BACK
TOWARDS THE PILBARA COAST. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MINOR
CONSOLIDATION AND DEEPENING CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A 132219Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING HAS DEVELOPED OVER ALL QUADRANTS. THE INTENSIFICATION
COMES DESPITE MOVEMENT TOWARDS AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). VWS IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 18 KNOTS AND THERE ARE HIGHER
VALUES TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE 140000Z PGTW STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM LIES MORE THAN TWO DEGREES NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, IT ALSO REVEALS A SINGULAR OUTFLOW POINT
DIRECTLY ABOVE THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, AMSU RADIAL CROSS SECTIONS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS DEPICT A RISING, ALBEIT WEAK, MID-LEVEL WARM
ANOMALY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ASSESSMENTS OF 45
KNOTS FROM PGTW, APRF, AND KNES. TC 17S IS BEING GUIDED NORTHWARD BY
AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, BUT THAT STEERING
INFLUENCE WILL END SOON AS THE ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES SOUTHWEST. AS
TC 17S SLOWS AND STALLS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE COMBINED
EFFECTS OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
OVER THE TIMOR SEA WILL PICK THE STORM UP AND DRIVE IT TOWARDS THE
PORT HEDLAND AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE EXISTS SOME VARIABILITY IN ALONG-
TRACK SPEED AND THUS TIMING OF LANDFALL, TRACK GUIDANCE IS
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN THE GENERAL COURSE OF THE STORM, WITH NO
OUTLIERS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADILY RISING WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN AND IS NOW INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90
KNOTS AT TAU 60, JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. VWS WILL SLOW
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT AS THE STORM MAKES THE
TURN AND HEADS SOUTHEAST, ALONG-TRACK VWS VALUES WILL FALL STEADILY
ALL THE WAY INTO THE COAST AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
29 TO 30 DEGREES THROUGH LANDFALL. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO
CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT TC 17S WILL REMAIN A VIGOROUS SYSTEM
ALL THE WAY INTO THE GIBSON DESERT.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z
AND 150900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120314 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 112.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 112.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.4S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.6S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.5S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.9S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.6S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 29.0S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 112.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, (LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING DEFLECTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A LARGE GAP IN THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, AND A 141048Z
SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE HORSESHOE PATTERN IS BEING ENHANCED BY
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH HAS INCREASED TO
APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS. DESPITE THE SHEAR, SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REFLECTS
THE INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, BUT A VIGOROUS
EQUATORWARD CHANNEL PERSISTS. THERE IS ALSO A WEAKER POLEWARD
CHANNEL EXTENDING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF
VWS BETWEEN THE CURRENT POSITION AND THE 15TH LATITUDE WILL SLOW
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT AS THE SYSTEM TURNS
SOUTHEAST, VWS WILL EASE AND ALLOW THE STORM TO INTENSIFY ALL THE
WAY THROUGH LANDFALL. TC 17S WAS BEING GUIDED NORTHWARD BY AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, BUT THE ANTICYCLONE HAS
RETROGRADED DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN AND THERE IS TOO
MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. AT THE MOMENT THERE IS
LITTLE STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM, BUT DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COUPLE WITH A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE OVER THE TIMOR SEA TO DRIVE THE STORM SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
PORT HEDLAND AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN ALONG-TRACK
SPEEDS AND THUS THE TIMING OF LANDFALL, TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY
CONSISTENT REGARDING THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE STORM. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADILY RISING WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN AND
IS NOW INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90 KNOTS AT TAU 54, JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING THAT TC 17S WILL REMAIN INTACT AND VIGOROUS ALL THE WAY
INTO THE GIBSON DESERT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120314 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 113.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 113.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.9S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.2S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.2S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.8S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.1S 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 29.6S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 113.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, (LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SYMMETRICAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING. A 141801Z AMSU-B COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE TIGHT BANDING IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE INITIAL POSITION FIX.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17S IS APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES
EQUATORWARD OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH A POINT SOURCE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE CURRENT VWS IS MODERATE (20 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 17S HAS MAINTAINED GOOD OUTFLOW, OFFSETTING THE
EFFECTS OF THE VWS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY COMPLETING A TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT.
THE ALONG-TRACK VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL MAKING
LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48. TC 17S WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 96.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120315 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 112.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 112.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.9S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.6S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.0S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.1S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 26.2S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 113.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, (LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOOPING AND IS
CONSOLIDATING WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BASED ON MSI AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 14/2330Z TO 15/0730Z, TC 17S BEGAN A LOOP
AROUND 15/00Z AND IS NOW TRACKING EASTWARD BASED ON THE 0730Z
POSITION (APPROXIMATELY 15.5S 113.0E WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE). IN
GENERAL, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (NOW LIGHT TO MODERATE)
AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED
SIGNATURE AND THE HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM KNES AND
APRF. DESPITE THE SHORT-TERM LOOP, THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM
THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. TC 17S IS LOCATED
WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, POSITIONED TO
THE SOUTHWEST, WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 160 NM
SPREAD AT TAU 48, ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR PORT HEDLAND. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
FAVORS THE ECMWF TRACKER AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY AT 95 KNOTS FROM TAU 36 TO
TAU 48 BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS IT
TRACKS QUICKLY INLAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120315 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.3S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.8S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.9S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.9S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.3S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 114.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, (LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151610Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 17S HAS
INCREASED IN TRANSLATION SPEED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE
REORIENTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WITH THE PEAK INTENSITY
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120316 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 116.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 116.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.9S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.1S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.2S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 26.6S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 117.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, (LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160646Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER,
SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THIS
AMSU IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. TC 17S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO
TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A 110 NM SPREAD AT TAU 24. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF
TRACKER AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY AT 90 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR TAU
24 AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS IT
TRACKS QUICKLY INLAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS
31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120316 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 118.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.9S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.8S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 26.3S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 119.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, (LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED ITS HORIZONTAL EXTENT WHILE
MAINTAINING TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATION ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
161515Z TRMM IMAGE AND FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS AND IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. PORT HEDLAND RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LLCC PASSED OVER ROWLEY SHOALS AT
APPROXIMATELY ONE AM LOCAL TIME. MSLP DROPPED TO 939 MB AND
SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS WERE REPORTED AT 73 KNOTS. TC 17S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL EAST OF
PORT HEDLAND IN APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKEN WITH DISSIPATION OVER LAND FORECAST BY TAU 36. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120317 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 19.7S 120.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 120.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.6S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.7S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 28.6S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 120.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S,
(LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ON-SHORE OF THE PILBARA COAST JUST
EAST OF CAPE KERAUDREN AND WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH
TO PORT HEDLAND DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS
BASED ENTIRELY ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ASSESSMENTS FROM PGTW AND
APRF. FORTUNATELY, THERE ARE NO OBSERVATION REPORTING STATIONS CLOSE
TO THE SYSTEM FROM WHICH TO VERIFY THE INTENSITY AS TC 17S IS MOVING
INTO A VERY SPARSELY POPULATED AREA. GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ALMOST DIRECTLY SOUTHWARD
AND REMAIN AN INTENSE STORM DEEP INTO THE INTERIOR OF AUSTRALIA.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNING
AT 171500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120317 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 120.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 120.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.8S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 27.9S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 120.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, (LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WENT ASHORE VERY CLOSE TO
THE PARDOO ROADHOUSE, TAVERN, AND CARAVAN PARK AT APPROXIMATELY
170700Z. INTENSITY AT LANDFALL WAS APPROXIMATELY 90 KNOTS. TC 17S IS
TRACKING RAPIDLY INTO THE INTERIOR AND WEAKENING, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO GENERATE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL DEEP INTO THE GIBSON
DESERT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_lua.htm | Updated: 18 March 2012 |