Tropical
Cyclones
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![]() Tropical Cyclone ANAIS Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20121012 05:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.4S 72.8E TO 10.3S 68.2E WITH- IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 72.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8S 72.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 72.3E, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120126Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE. THE IR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AREA OF MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (>28 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT 1000MB. DUE TO IMPROVED STORM STRUCTURE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 130500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121012 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 7.9S 71.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S 71.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 9.4S 69.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 10.7S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 11.6S 66.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 12.3S 64.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.6S 62.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 14.2S 58.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 14.3S 54.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 8.3S 70.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 121254Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE 01S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 01S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 72, VWS IS FORECASTED TO INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP OFF WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 120451Z OCT 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 120500) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121013 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 8.9S 70.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 70.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 10.0S 68.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 10.9S 66.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 11.6S 65.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 12.2S 63.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 13.1S 60.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 13.9S 56.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.3S 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9S 70.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A STRENGTHENING SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 122213Z TRMM 85GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A MICROWAVE EYE HAS RECENTLY FORMED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE TRMM IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE 01S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT JUST NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 72, VWS IS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE, RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121013 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 10.0S 68.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 68.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 10.9S 66.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 11.7S 65.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 12.1S 64.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 12.7S 63.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.7S 60.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 14.6S 56.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.4S 52.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 68.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED, CONSOLIDATED, AND FORMED A 17-NM EYE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENT CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72 WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. WBAR IS THE LEFT OUTLIER TRACKING THE VORTEX INTO THE RIDGE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121014 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 10.9S 66.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 66.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 12.1S 65.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 13.1S 63.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 14.1S 61.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.7S 59.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.0S 56.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 16.9S 53.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 18.6S 51.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 66.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE BANDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A WELL DEVELOPED EYE FEATURE WAS PRESENT SIX HOURS AGO BUT HAS SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED IR IMAGERY WITH POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON 4.5/5.0 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC IS PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING VWS, WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT VARIES WIDELY IN LATER TAUS ON THE RECURVATURE POINT AND SPEEDS. THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT IS FURTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER BEYOND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121014 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 11.4S 65.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 65.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 12.3S 64.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.2S 62.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.2S 61.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.0S 59.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.2S 56.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 17.7S 54.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 19.4S 52.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 65.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED AND MAINTAINED A 25-NM EYE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN RECURVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72 WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. WBAR IS THE LEFT OUTLIER TRACKING THE VORTEX INTO THE RIDGE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121015 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 64.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 64.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.3S 63.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.1S 61.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.1S 60.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.0S 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.6S 55.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.1S 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 21.5S 52.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 64.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EYEWALL. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE EYEWALL ORGANIZATION, WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES SHOWING A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. THE PREDOMINANT CHANGE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED INTO A REGION OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (LESS THAN 27 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LEADING TO THE EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES THIS WILL BEGIN AROUND TAU 96 AND WILL FINISH BEYOND TAU 120. TC 01S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 96, WHEN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE STR ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121015 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 13.4S 63.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 63.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.3S 62.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.2S 60.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.1S 58.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.0S 57.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.9S 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 20.5S 53.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 22.6S 53.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 63.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 15/0901Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AROUND A RAGGED EYE. INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 102 KNOTS. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATE TC O1S HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01S IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INTO COOLER WATERS. THESE COOLER SSTS ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. TC ANAIS SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AROUND TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 120. TC 01S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 96, WHEN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE STR ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121016 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 62.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 62.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 14.7S 60.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.4S 58.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.0S 57.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 16.3S 55.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 61.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PREVIOUS EYEWALL STRUCTURE HAS COLLAPSED BUT PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW CENTER FIX LOCATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED DETAIL IN IR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 85 KNOTS FROM FIMP, FMEE, AND PGTW DUE TO THE 152200Z 81 KNOT OBJECTIVE SATCON ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 01S IS SLIGHTLY POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND A POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE WHICH IS CAUSING MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM DIVERGENCE RESIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST OVER THIS AREA. TC 01S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR, CENTERED EAST OF THE CYCLONE, DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 01S WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS SSTS ARE IN THE 24 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE AND WELL BELOW SUPPORTIVE LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE UPON THE SYSTEM AND AID IN THE FORECAST DECREASE. THERE HAS BEEN A FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THAT DISSIPATION BY TAU 48 IS NOW EXPECTED DUE TO THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. OBJECTIVE AID GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH TRACKS THE LLCC INTO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER, TC 01S IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE SUCH A TRANSITION. THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LAYS SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121016 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 60.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 60.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 14.8S 58.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.4S 56.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.8S 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 16.1S 53.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 59.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 160655Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LIMITED TO THE SOUTH QUADRANT. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE, NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO MARGINAL SST (24 TO 25C) AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, WHICH RE-CURVES THE SYSTEM, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121017 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 57.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 57.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.1S 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.3S 54.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 57.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ONLY SLIGHT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 162335 SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TC 01S IS BEGINNING TO ELONGATE AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 01S CONTINUES TO HAVE FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT REMAINS IN MODERATE, NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO MARGINAL SST (24 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH WBAR CONTINUING TO RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121017 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 56.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 56.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 16.7S 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 56.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS EXPOSED AND HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED. THE REMNANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS NOW DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS ABOUT 07 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS THE CYCLONE PROGRESSES POLEWARD AND WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 15 FEET.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_anais.htm | Updated: 24 October 2012 |