Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone BOLDWIN Southern Hemisphere Summary

WTXS21 PGTW 20121124 02:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4S 77.0E TO 14.2S 72.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
240200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
76.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S
77.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 76.4E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 232203Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
DUE TO DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS CURRENTLY AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED
UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG WESTERLIES LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 250230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121124 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 75.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 75.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 14.2S 74.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 14.4S 73.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 14.7S 72.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 15.1S 71.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 15.7S 69.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 16.9S 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 75.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED IN THE LAST SIX HOURS AND
DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE. A 240321Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE DEEP HIGH
REFLECTIVITY CONVECTION CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH
MINIMAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC BOLDWIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK ALL THROUGH ITS
LIFESPAN BEFORE DISSIPATING AT TAU 96 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IT WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS MAINLY DUE TO THE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LIMITED
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO
THIS TRACK FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 240221Z NOV 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 240230) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 240600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.    //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121124 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 74.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 74.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 14.6S 73.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 15.0S 72.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 15.5S 71.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 16.3S 69.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 18.8S 67.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 74.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 02S HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED PRIMARILY
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 241618Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTED THE
TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES
AND FIMP AS WELL AS A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS. TC 02S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD
OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS DUE
TO THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SST. AFTER TAU 48, BOLDWIN SHOULD
WEAKEN QUICKLY WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS
WILL LIKELY TRACK EQUATORWARD AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z AND 252100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121125 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 73.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 73.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 15.2S 72.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 15.8S 70.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 16.8S 69.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 18.1S 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 73.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED AND DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST,
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND FIMP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG THE
WESTERN TO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, AN INDICATION OF VERY
STRONG JET LEVEL WINDS. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A SUBSIDENT EFFECT ON
THE CYCLONE, AS EVIDENCED BY THE SHARP OUTLINE ALONG ITS WESTERN
CONTOURS. TC 02S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND
CAUSE THE TC TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU
24. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS MORE POLEWARD, THE VWS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY DECAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WBAR THAT CONTINUES TO UNREALISTICALLY TRACK THE VORTEX
SOUTHWARD INTO THE STR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.   //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121125 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 71.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 71.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 15.3S 70.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 71.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT A FULLY-EXPOSED, RAPIDLY-WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 251545Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES A POORLY-
DEFINED LLCC WITH AN ISOLATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR 15S 76E.
A 250728Z OCEANSAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWED ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, DVORAK FINAL-T INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE WEAK LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE FINAL-T ESTIMATES BASED
ON THE HIGHER DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 02S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 17 FEET.//