Tropical
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![]() Tropical Cyclone CLAUDIA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20121206 02:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 79.6E TO 15.1S 75.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 042330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 79.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 79.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 79.0E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVING ORGANIZATION. A RECENT 051808Z OSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER RANGED FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH REGIONS OF STRONGER GRADIENT INDUCED FLOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC HAS STARTED TO TRACK UNDER THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, DECREASING VWS, AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AROUND THE STR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 070230Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121206 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060221Z DEC 12// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 12.4S 76.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 76.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 12.9S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.5S 74.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.0S 74.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 14.7S 74.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.9S 73.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 19.7S 73.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 23.2S 73.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 76.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH OVERALL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EIR AND A 061053Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED UPON THE OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LLCC IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 03S IS FORECASTED TO GENERALLY TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. PAST TAU 36, TC 03S WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AS THE STEERING RIDGE BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT DIVERGES SLIGHTLY WITH THE EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERN TURN IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS PAST TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 9 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 050221Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050230) NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121207 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 76.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 76.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 15.1S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.9S 75.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.9S 75.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.2S 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 20.0S 74.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 22.5S 74.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 25.2S 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 76.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE BUILDING TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS CAUSED THE DEEP LAYERED STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO RE-ALIGN INTO A MORE MERIDIONAL PATTERN. THE TRACK SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STR ADJUSTS TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER AN STR AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING THE SYSTEM A LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE MERIDIONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY TRANSIT POLEWARD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS) BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH, THE SSTS RAPIDLY DECREASE, LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND BEYOND TAU 72. BY TAU 120, EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS TC 03S MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST, HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE RECENT SOUTHWARD TREND FOR THE TRACK, THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT EASTWARD AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THE CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE LARGE VARIATION IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121207 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 75.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 75.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.6S 74.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 15.4S 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.1S 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 17.1S 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 19.3S 74.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 22.2S 74.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.7S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 75.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A WELL DEFINED YET SLIGHTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC READILY APPARENT IN THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED UPON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE CURRENT STEERING STR RE-ORIENTS AND BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL. AFTER TAU 12, TC 03S WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE DEEP LAYERED STR AND PICK UP SPEED AS INTENSITIES SLOWLY INCREASE UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT GAINS LATITUDE AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN THE MERIDIONAL RE- ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING STR CAUSING THEM TO VARY ON TRACK SPEED AND THE EXTENT OF THE POLEWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS NEAR MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THESE LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LEND TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121208 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 75.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 75.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 14.3S 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.3S 74.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.6S 73.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.2S 73.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 21.4S 74.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 25.8S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 31.4S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 75.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 072354Z SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. TC 03S HAS CONSOLIDATED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE ALSO EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS PASS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE PICKED UP BY A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BY TAU 12. TC 03S WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BY TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEAR-TERM, SUPPORTED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER. AFTER THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS, PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WITH EACH DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121208 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 74.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 74.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.3S 74.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.6S 74.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.1S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 19.8S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 24.2S 74.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 29.3S 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 36.1S 85.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 74.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS WITH IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 10-NM ROUND EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 03S WILL TRACK OVER VERY COOL SST (LESS THAN 24C) AND WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121209 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 74.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 74.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.0S 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 17.4S 74.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 19.2S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 21.4S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 26.4S 75.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 32.1S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 74.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A WELL-FORMED EYE THAT HAS NOW EXPANDED TO APPROXIMATELY 15 NM IN DIAMETER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, NEARLY UNDER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, AFTER WHICH RAPIDLY DECREASING SST VALUES AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 72, TC 03S WILL BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE POLEWARD OF 25 DEGREES SOUTH. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 34 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121209 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 74.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 74.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.8S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.3S 73.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.1S 73.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 22.0S 73.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 28.5S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 34.6S 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 74.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 10-NM BANDING EYE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL TC 03S BEGINS TO TRACK OVER COOLER SST POLEWARD OF 20S. TC 03S WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NEAR TAU 72, TC 03S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE POLEWARD OF 25 DEGREES SOUTH AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TC 03S MAY WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT DUE TO THE COLD SST PRESENT POLEWARD OF 30S. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EGRR TRACKER, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST EAST AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121210 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 74.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 74.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.5S 74.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 19.3S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.3S 73.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 24.2S 74.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 30.4S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 36.2S 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 74.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 03S UNDERWENT A SHORT INTENSIFICATION PERIOD, BUT DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EYEWALL HAS SINCE WARMED SLIGHTLY. THE EYE NOW MEASURES APPROXIMATELY 13 NM IN DIAMETER. BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES, RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03S IS DIRECTLY UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LIGHT (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND A POINT- SOURCE OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE THE ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WHICH IS OBSERVED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) DECREASES AND VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER TAU 24, A SHARP GRADIENT IN SST WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATER, AND A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH HIGHER VWS. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID WEAKENING OF TC 03S. PRIOR TO TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED POLEWARD OF 25 DEGREES SOUTH. ETT WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 96; HOWEVER, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TC 03S MAY WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL DUE TO THE COLD SST AND HIGH VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EGRR TRACKER, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST EAST AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 43 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121210 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 73.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 73.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 19.3S 73.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.3S 73.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 23.7S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.6S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 32.2S 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 37.7S 89.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 73.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 03S HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A 10-NM EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE ALSO IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. TC 03S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO ACCELERATE AS IT ENTERS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, WHICH INDICATES A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. TC 03S SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO COOL SST AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 60, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT TC 03S WILL WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT DUE TO VERY COLD SST (LESS THAN 20C BY TAU 72) AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOTS). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121211 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 18.7S 73.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 73.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.6S 72.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 22.8S 73.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 25.4S 74.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 28.4S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 35.8S 82.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 73.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) REVEALS TC 03S HAS LOST ITS EYE, BECOME ELONGATED AND HAS OVERALL WEAKENED. AN 110046Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE CONCURS WITH THE IR IN THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AND SHOWS THE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FIMP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03S IS SLIGHTLY POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE POINT SOURCE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 03S IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE STR AND TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BEGIN AT TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM PICKS UP SPEED AND COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EGRR TRACKER, WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE WESTERN MOST OUTLIER. DUE TO THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST EAST AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121211 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 73.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 73.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 22.5S 73.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 25.1S 73.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 28.1S 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 31.7S 78.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 73.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN STEADILY DECLINING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LLCC SHOWS INDICATIONS OF AN EAST-WEST ELONGATION AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARD. AN OLDER 110438Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM WERE AT STORM FORCE INTENSITIES, WITH DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE BEEN DECREASING QUICKLY AS TC 03S TRACKS SOUTHWARD, AND ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 24 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03S HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED STR TOWARDS THE MID- LATITUDES, WHERE INCREASING INTERACTION STARTS THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS BY TAU 36. THE STEADY DECREASE IN SSTS AND INCREASE IN VWS, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDES, WILL LEAD TO THE FULL TRANSITION OF TC 03S TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EGRR TRACKER, WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE WESTERN MOST OUTLIER. DUE TO THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST EAST AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121212 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 72.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 72.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 24.0S 73.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 26.7S 74.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 72.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TC 03S HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION NOW CONTAINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN 112227Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TC 03S STARTING TO BECOME EXTRA TROPICAL AS A WEAK WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO FORM WITH A DELTA RAIN REGION OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 45 KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03S IS UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD, CONTINUALLY WEAKENING AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ETT WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND DUE TO THIS THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH AS MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121212 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 25.0S 73.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 73.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 28.2S 75.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 31.4S 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 74.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH, WHICH IS ENHANCING THE GRADIENT FLOW. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOTICEABLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (30 KNOTS). THE STRONG VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE THE UPPER LEVEL DEEP CONVECTION AND THE LLCC WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS STARTED THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, HOWEVER, THE TRACK SPEEDS ARE SLOWER THAN ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED. BASED ON THIS, THE FORECAST SPEEDS HAVE BEEN KEPT AHEAD OF THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 130300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20121213 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 27.6S 75.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 27.6S 75.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 30.2S 77.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 28.3S 75.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1215 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND INCREASING INTERACTON WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 15 FEET.//
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Document: tropical_cyclone_claudia.htm | Updated: 15 December 2012 |