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Tropical Cyclone CLAUDIA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone CLAUDIA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20121206 02:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 79.6E TO 15.1S 75.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 042330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 79.0E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
79.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 79.0E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION. A RECENT 051808Z OSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER RANGED FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH REGIONS OF STRONGER GRADIENT
INDUCED FLOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC HAS STARTED TO TRACK UNDER THE
AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27-29 DEGREES
CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC,
DECREASING VWS, AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AROUND THE STR,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121206 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060221Z DEC 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 12.4S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 76.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.9S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.5S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.0S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.7S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.9S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.7S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.2S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 76.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH OVERALL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EIR AND A 061053Z SSMI 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED UPON THE OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
KNES AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LLCC IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 03S IS
FORECASTED TO GENERALLY TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. PAST TAU 36, TC 03S WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AS THE
STEERING RIDGE BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS
OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT DIVERGES SLIGHTLY
WITH THE EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERN TURN IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE
OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS PAST TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 9 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
050221Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050230)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121207 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 76.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 76.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.1S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.9S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.9S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.2S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.0S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.5S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.2S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 76.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE BUILDING TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS CAUSED THE DEEP
LAYERED STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO RE-ALIGN INTO A MORE
MERIDIONAL PATTERN. THE TRACK SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE STR ADJUSTS TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER AN STR
AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING THE SYSTEM A LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE MERIDIONAL PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY TRANSIT POLEWARD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS) BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OF 20 DEGREES SOUTH, THE SSTS RAPIDLY DECREASE, LEADING TO A
WEAKENING TREND BEYOND TAU 72. BY TAU 120, EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS TC 03S MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST, HOWEVER, THE
MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE RECENT SOUTHWARD TREND FOR THE TRACK,
THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT EASTWARD AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THE
CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE LARGE VARIATION IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 070000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121207 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 75.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 75.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.6S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.4S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.1S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.1S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.3S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.2S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.7S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 75.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A
WELL DEFINED YET SLIGHTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH INCREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC READILY APPARENT IN THE MSI WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED UPON
CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
03S IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS THE CURRENT STEERING STR RE-ORIENTS AND BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL. AFTER TAU 12, TC 03S WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE DEEP
LAYERED STR AND PICK UP SPEED AS INTENSITIES SLOWLY INCREASE UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AS IT GAINS LATITUDE AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT
TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN THE MERIDIONAL RE-
ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING STR CAUSING THEM TO VARY ON TRACK SPEED
AND THE EXTENT OF THE POLEWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS NEAR
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS.
THESE LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LEND TO LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121208 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 75.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 75.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.3S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.3S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.6S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.2S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.4S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.8S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 31.4S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 75.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 072354Z SSMIS PASS. THE
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. TC 03S HAS CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A DEVELOPING EYE
FEATURE ALSO EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY,
INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS PASS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO
AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CYCLONE IS BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE PICKED UP BY A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BY
TAU 12. TC 03S WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BY TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEAR-TERM, SUPPORTED BY STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER. AFTER THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS, PASSAGE OVER
COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN
STEADY WEAKENING. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WITH EACH DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 080000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121208 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 74.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 74.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.3S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.6S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.1S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.8S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.2S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 29.3S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 36.1S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 74.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS WITH IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 10-NM ROUND
EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES
TO THE SOUTH. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC
03S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU
24 BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER
SST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 03S WILL TRACK OVER VERY COOL SST (LESS THAN
24C) AND WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND SHOULD COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121209 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 74.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 74.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.0S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.4S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.2S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.4S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 26.4S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 32.1S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 74.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A WELL-FORMED EYE THAT HAS NOW
EXPANDED TO APPROXIMATELY 15 NM IN DIAMETER. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
NEARLY UNDER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK (05-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS, AFTER WHICH RAPIDLY DECREASING SST VALUES AND
INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 72, TC 03S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
POLEWARD OF 25 DEGREES SOUTH. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE
COMPLETE BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 34
FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121209 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 74.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 74.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.8S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.3S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.1S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.0S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 28.5S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 34.6S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 74.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS;
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 10-NM BANDING EYE. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
102 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL TC 03S BEGINS TO TRACK OVER
COOLER SST POLEWARD OF 20S. TC 03S WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NEAR TAU 72, TC 03S WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE POLEWARD OF 25 DEGREES SOUTH AND WILL COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 96. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TC 03S MAY WEAKEN BELOW 35
KNOTS PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT DUE TO THE COLD SST PRESENT POLEWARD
OF 30S. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EGRR TRACKER, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST EAST AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND
101500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121210 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 74.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 74.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.5S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.3S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.3S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.2S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 30.4S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 36.2S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 74.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC
03S UNDERWENT A SHORT INTENSIFICATION PERIOD, BUT DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE EYEWALL HAS SINCE WARMED SLIGHTLY. THE EYE NOW MEASURES
APPROXIMATELY 13 NM IN DIAMETER. BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
MULTIPLE AGENCIES, RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03S IS DIRECTLY UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WITH LIGHT (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND A POINT-
SOURCE OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE THE ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WHICH IS
OBSERVED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) DECREASES AND VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE.
AFTER TAU 24, A SHARP GRADIENT IN SST WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WATER, AND A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING
MUCH HIGHER VWS. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID WEAKENING OF TC
03S. PRIOR TO TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED
POLEWARD OF 25 DEGREES SOUTH. ETT WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 96;
HOWEVER, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TC 03S MAY WEAKEN BELOW 35
KNOTS PRIOR TO BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL DUE TO THE COLD SST AND
HIGH VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EGRR TRACKER, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST EAST AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 43 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121210 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 73.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 73.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.3S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.3S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.7S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.6S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 32.2S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 37.7S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 73.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
TC 03S HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A 10-NM EYE, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES ARE ALSO IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT. TC 03S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO
ACCELERATE AS IT ENTERS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, WHICH INDICATES A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. TC 03S SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE
TO COOL SST AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 60, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 96. THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT TC 03S WILL WEAKEN
BELOW 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT DUE TO VERY COLD SST (LESS
THAN 20C BY TAU 72) AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOTS).
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z AND 111500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121211 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 18.7S 73.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 73.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.6S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.8S 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.4S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.4S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 35.8S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 73.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
REVEALS TC 03S HAS LOST ITS EYE, BECOME ELONGATED AND HAS OVERALL
WEAKENED. AN 110046Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE CONCURS WITH THE IR IN
THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AND SHOWS THE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
FIMP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03S IS SLIGHTLY POLEWARD OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE POINT SOURCE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS ROBUST DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 03S
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 03S IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE STR AND
TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND VWS BEGINS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) WILL BEGIN AT TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM PICKS UP SPEED AND
COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EGRR TRACKER, WHICH HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE WESTERN MOST OUTLIER. DUE TO THIS TIGHT
AGREEMENT HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH
IS POSITIONED JUST EAST AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121211 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 73.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 73.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.5S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.1S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.1S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 31.7S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 73.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN
STEADILY DECLINING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LLCC SHOWS
INDICATIONS OF AN EAST-WEST ELONGATION AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD. AN OLDER 110438Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM WERE AT STORM FORCE INTENSITIES, WITH
DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE BEEN DECREASING QUICKLY AS TC
03S TRACKS SOUTHWARD, AND ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 24 TO 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03S HAS MOVED SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE (20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS DRY
AIR ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO
WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED STR TOWARDS THE MID-
LATITUDES, WHERE INCREASING INTERACTION STARTS THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION PROCESS BY TAU 36. THE STEADY DECREASE IN SSTS AND
INCREASE IN VWS, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDES, WILL
LEAD TO THE FULL TRANSITION OF TC 03S TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY
TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EGRR TRACKER, WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE
WESTERN MOST OUTLIER. DUE TO THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST EAST
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z AND 121500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121212 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 72.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 72.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.0S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.7S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 72.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS TC 03S HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION NOW CONTAINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN 112227Z
SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TC 03S STARTING TO BECOME EXTRA
TROPICAL AS A WEAK WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO FORM WITH A DELTA RAIN
REGION OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 45 KNOTS AND IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 03S IS UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. TC
03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD, CONTINUALLY WEAKENING AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ETT WILL BE COMPLETE BY
TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND DUE TO
THIS THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH AS MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121212 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 25.0S 73.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 73.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.2S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 31.4S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 74.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH, WHICH IS ENHANCING THE GRADIENT FLOW.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOTICEABLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (30 KNOTS). THE STRONG VWS IS EXPECTED TO
DECOUPLE THE UPPER LEVEL DEEP CONVECTION AND THE LLCC WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS STARTED
THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, HOWEVER, THE TRACK SPEEDS ARE SLOWER THAN
ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED. BASED ON THIS, THE FORECAST SPEEDS
HAVE BEEN KEPT AHEAD OF THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 130300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20121213 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 27.6S 75.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6S 75.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 30.2S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 28.3S 75.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S
(CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1215 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LACK OF
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND INCREASING INTERACTON WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 15 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_claudia.htm | Updated: 15 December 2012 |