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Tropical Cyclone EMANG
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone EMANG Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20130112 15:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 140 NM RADIUS OF 11.8S 80.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 121500Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 80.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
81.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 80.3E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 121017Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL (120 NM DIAMETER) SYSTEM
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 120331Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS
UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE DYNAMIC MODELS (GENERALLY) INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131530Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130112 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121521ZJAN2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 80.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 80.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 11.8S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 11.9S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.4S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.9S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.7S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 14.5S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.1S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 80.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT,
EXHIBITING QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 121427Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WIND PRODUCT SHOWS 30 TO 35
KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON
THIS, AND OVERALL IMPROVED STORM STRUCTURE, THE INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 09S IS LOCATED
SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) LEVELS ALLOWING FOR THE
RECENT IMPROVEMENT. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 09S IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES. AFTER TAU 24, TC 09S WILL SLOWLY TRACK MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE MID TO DEEP LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST BECOMES THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND CAUSE A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. TC 09S WILL STRUGGLE TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST AS VWS WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS
AND INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS IN THE LATER TAUS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD BUT GENERALLY AGREES ON SLOW TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND SLOW INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO THIS POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
121521Z JAN 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
121530).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130113 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 11.6S 80.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 80.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 11.9S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.2S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.6S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.1S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 13.9S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.6S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.2S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 80.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY. TC 09S IS LOCATED WITHIN
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW AND HAS SHOWN LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. TC 09S IS LOCATED
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY
WITH AN APPARENT CLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 12 AND SLOWLY
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). AFTER TAU 36, TC 09S SHOULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AND TURN MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
SPEED. THE MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD. OVERALL, THE GUIDANCE IS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE DISPARITY IN TRACK SPEEDS AND THE
RECENT ERRATIC MOTION. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD THEN INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130113 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 80.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 80.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.1S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.6S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.1S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.5S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 14.3S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.9S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.3S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 80.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A RECENT
FLARE OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
131545Z ASCAT PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 KNOTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH STORM STRUCTURE AS ORGANIZATION HAS
NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC
09S IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 09S REMAINS WITHIN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT HAS PICKED UP SPEED OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 12 ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
BUILDING STR. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK MORE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR RESPONDS TO DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER THE MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED, AS THE
EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLOWER TRACK WESTWARD. LOW CONFIDENCE
REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
SPEEDS IN THE MODELS AND THE PAST ERRATIC MOTION, BUT IS IMPROVING
BASED ON THE RECENT INCREASE IN MOTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130114 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 12.4S 79.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 79.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.9S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.4S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.8S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.2S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.9S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.4S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.8S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 79.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MSI AND AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
140432Z ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 09S IS LOCATED WITHIN
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 09S REMAINS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STR. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR RESPONDS TO A
DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER THE MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED, WITH UKMET AND ECMWF INDICATING A SLOWER
TRACK WESTWARD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED AS THE SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
TRACK SPEED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
(NARELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130114 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 78.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 78.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.6S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.9S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.2S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 14.5S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.7S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.9S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.0S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 78.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE BANDING EVEN AS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED UNDER THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 07 DEGREES NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE 10-20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS CAUSING TC 08S TO TRACK ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER THE THE RIDGE AXIS, THE VWS
WILL WEAKEN AND PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. GIVEN THE SOLID
STEERING PATTERN AND THE TIGHT GROUPING IN THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130115 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 13.5S 78.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 78.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.9S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.3S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 14.6S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.9S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.0S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.5S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.2S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 78.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY ELONGATED IN THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE MSI SHOWS THAT NEARLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A SMALL REGION OF FLARING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES REMAINING STEADY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 09S IS LOCATED NEAR THE AXIS OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS BEEN
WEAKENING THE CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) AS THE LLCC IS NEAR THE STR AXIS. THE TRACK HAS SLOWED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE TROUGH HAS CREATED A WEAKER STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, BUT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, THE STR IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK IN, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD. THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND BASED ON THIS
AGREEMENT THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130115 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 79.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 79.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.9S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.2S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.6S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.0S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.4S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.8S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.4S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 78.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN MAINTAINING ITS
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ADDITIONALLY, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS ELONGATED AND RAGGED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S IS LOCATED NEAR THE AXIS OF A WEAKENING
RIDGE AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAS SINCE
RECEDED IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HAS
BEEN THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO RESUME TRACKING WESTWARD.
THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE WESTWARD TRACK AND IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH OF A VERTICAL STRUCTURE IS LEFT WITH 09S WHEN
THE STR REBUILDS. OTHERWISE, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. //
=========================================================================
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130116 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 77.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 77.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.0S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.4S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.0S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.7S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.5S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.5S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.8S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 76.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED FLARING OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT NEAR AN ELONGATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
161518Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN A CONVERGENT BAND AND NO
IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND THE 161518Z SSMIS WIND PRODUCT
SHOWING 35 KNOTS ALONG THE CONVERGENT AREA TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S REMAINS NEAR THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) (05 TO 10 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF
MODERATELY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (27 TO 28
DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 09S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STR BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES TC 09S WILL REMAIN ON A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
AROUND THIS STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24, BUT
INCREASING VWS BEYOND TAU 72 WILL CAUSE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM
BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE ONLY MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, A
POSSIBILITY REMAINS IN THE SYSTEM WEAKENING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD
PRIOR TO TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT IN FAIR
AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z AND 172100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130117 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 75.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 75.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.0S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 75.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
MSI ALSO SHOWS THAT THE LLCC HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE AND UNRAVEL OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS CLEARLY DEPICTED IN A
170607Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A BROAD LLCC WITH SHALLOW
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
SUPPORTS A 30 TO 35 KNOT SYSTEM WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. DUE TO THE
LACK OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS; HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 35 KNOTS. TC 09S IS LOCATED WITHIN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, UNDER CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 14 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_emang.htm | Updated: 17 January 2013 |