Tropical
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![]() Tropical Cyclone EMANG Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20130112 15:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS OF 11.8S 80.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 121500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 80.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 81.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 80.3E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 121017Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL (120 NM DIAMETER) SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 120331Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE DYNAMIC MODELS (GENERALLY) INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 131530Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20130112 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121521ZJAN2013// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 80.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 80.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 11.8S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 11.9S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 12.4S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 12.9S 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.7S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.5S 77.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.1S 76.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 80.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT, EXHIBITING QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 121427Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WIND PRODUCT SHOWS 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON THIS, AND OVERALL IMPROVED STORM STRUCTURE, THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 09S IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) LEVELS ALLOWING FOR THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES. AFTER TAU 24, TC 09S WILL SLOWLY TRACK MORE SOUTHWEST AS THE MID TO DEEP LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BECOMES THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND CAUSE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. TC 09S WILL STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST AS VWS WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS AND INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS IN THE LATER TAUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD BUT GENERALLY AGREES ON SLOW TRACK TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND SLOW INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO THIS POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 121521Z JAN 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 121530).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20130113 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 11.6S 80.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 80.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 11.9S 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 12.2S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 12.6S 79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.1S 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.9S 77.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.6S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.2S 74.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 80.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY. TC 09S IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW AND HAS SHOWN LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. TC 09S IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY WITH AN APPARENT CLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 12 AND SLOWLY TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, TC 09S SHOULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AND TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. THE MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD. OVERALL, THE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE DISPARITY IN TRACK SPEEDS AND THE RECENT ERRATIC MOTION. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD THEN INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20130113 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 80.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 80.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 12.1S 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 12.6S 78.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.1S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.5S 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.3S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.9S 73.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.3S 70.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 80.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A RECENT FLARE OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 131545Z ASCAT PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH STORM STRUCTURE AS ORGANIZATION HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 09S IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 09S REMAINS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT HAS PICKED UP SPEED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 12 ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BUILDING STR. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK MORE WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR RESPONDS TO DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER THE MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED, AS THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLOWER TRACK WESTWARD. LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS IN THE MODELS AND THE PAST ERRATIC MOTION, BUT IS IMPROVING BASED ON THE RECENT INCREASE IN MOTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20130114 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 12.4S 79.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 79.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 12.9S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.4S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.8S 77.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.2S 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.9S 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.4S 71.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.8S 68.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 79.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MSI AND AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 140432Z ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 09S IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 09S REMAINS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STR. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR RESPONDS TO A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER THE MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED, WITH UKMET AND ECMWF INDICATING A SLOWER TRACK WESTWARD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TRACK SPEED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20130114 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 78.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 78.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.6S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.9S 77.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.2S 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.5S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.7S 72.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.9S 69.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.0S 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 78.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE BANDING EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED UNDER THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 07 DEGREES NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE 10-20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS CAUSING TC 08S TO TRACK ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER THE THE RIDGE AXIS, THE VWS WILL WEAKEN AND PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. GIVEN THE SOLID STEERING PATTERN AND THE TIGHT GROUPING IN THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20130115 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 13.5S 78.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 78.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.9S 78.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.3S 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.6S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.9S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.0S 71.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.5S 68.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 16.2S 66.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 78.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY ELONGATED IN THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MSI SHOWS THAT NEARLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A SMALL REGION OF FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES REMAINING STEADY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S IS LOCATED NEAR THE AXIS OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS BEEN WEAKENING THE CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) AS THE LLCC IS NEAR THE STR AXIS. THE TRACK HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE TROUGH HAS CREATED A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD. THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND BASED ON THIS AGREEMENT THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20130115 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 79.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 79.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.9S 78.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 15.2S 76.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 15.6S 74.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.0S 72.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.4S 69.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.8S 66.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 17.4S 64.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 78.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN MAINTAINING ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ADDITIONALLY, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS ELONGATED AND RAGGED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S IS LOCATED NEAR THE AXIS OF A WEAKENING RIDGE AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAS SINCE RECEDED IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO RESUME TRACKING WESTWARD. THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE WESTWARD TRACK AND IS DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH OF A VERTICAL STRUCTURE IS LEFT WITH 09S WHEN THE STR REBUILDS. OTHERWISE, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. // ========================================================================= ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20130116 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 77.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 77.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 15.0S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.4S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 16.0S 71.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.7S 69.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 18.5S 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 20.5S 61.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 22.8S 59.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 76.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED FLARING OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT NEAR AN ELONGATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161518Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN A CONVERGENT BAND AND NO IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND THE 161518Z SSMIS WIND PRODUCT SHOWING 35 KNOTS ALONG THE CONVERGENT AREA TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S REMAINS NEAR THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (05 TO 10 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF MODERATELY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 09S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TC 09S WILL REMAIN ON A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THIS STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24, BUT INCREASING VWS BEYOND TAU 72 WILL CAUSE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE ONLY MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, A POSSIBILITY REMAINS IN THE SYSTEM WEAKENING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR TO TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20130117 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) FINAL WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 75.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 75.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.0S 73.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 75.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. MSI ALSO SHOWS THAT THE LLCC HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE AND UNRAVEL OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS CLEARLY DEPICTED IN A 170607Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A BROAD LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORTS A 30 TO 35 KNOT SYSTEM WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS; HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 35 KNOTS. TC 09S IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, UNDER CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 14 FEET.//
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Document: tropical_cyclone_emang.htm | Updated: 17 January 2013 |