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Tropical Cyclone EVAN
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Tropical Cyclone EVAN Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20121211 05:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7S 179.7W TO 13.5S 172.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
110222Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6S
178.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
177.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 178.8W, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION AND SYMMETRIC FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A RECENT 102312Z OSCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH 30 KNOT WINDS PRESENT
AROUND THE LLCC, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM INDICATING 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND A LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ENVIRONMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE A FAVORABLE 29 TO
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE SSTS AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN A
LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121211 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110451Z DEC 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 175.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 175.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.8S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.2S 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.0S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.4S 171.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.8S 174.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.6S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.2S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 175.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH INCREASED FORMATIVE BANDING AND IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A
111758Z TRMM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONCURS WITH THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENT AND SHOWS THE BEGINNING OF A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 04P HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE JET JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE FORMING ALOFT. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW (05-10 KNOTS). TC 04P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 04P WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS VWS REMAINS LOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH. AFTER TAU 36, TC 04P WILL SLOW
CONSIDERABLY AS A COL REGION FORMS BETWEEN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WHICH COULD CAUSE LOOPING AND QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT
DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 48, THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
DRIVING TC 04P TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK
INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96 NEAR 100 KNOTS. INTENSITIES WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER TAU 96 AS VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND ALL AGREE ON THE CLOCKWISE TURN
WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED. THE OFFICIAL
JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THESE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE LOOPING MOTION AND VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT FORECAST AT TAUS 36 AND 48, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 110451Z
DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 110500).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121212 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 14.1S 173.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 173.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.5S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.3S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.4S 170.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.0S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.4S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.0S 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.4S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 173.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY BUILDING OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS EVIDENCED IN A RECENT 112128Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWING CENTRAL WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TC 04P HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY
THE JET JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE FORMING ALOFT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS
LOW (05-10 KNOTS). TC 04P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 04P WILL REMAIN ON AN EASTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS VWS REMAINS LOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH. AS THE NER WEAKENS AND A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 04P TAKES OVER AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 48 IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND
TAU 48 THE STR WILL BUILD LEADING TO TC 04P TRACKING TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72, BUT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS VWS INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE
LOOPING MOTION AND VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FORECAST AT TAUS
36 AND 48, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z,
130300Z AND 130900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121212 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 173.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 173.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.4S 172.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 13.4S 171.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.7S 171.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.3S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.8S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.1S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.3S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 172.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED CLOUD COVER WITH A
FORMATIVE BAND BUILDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED
UPON THE OBSERVED IMPROVEMENTS IN ORGANIZATION BUT REMAINS BELOW THE
RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGESTING 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 04P HAS IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW AS AN APPARENT POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A MID-LATITUDE JET IS BEGINNING TO
ENHANCE THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (05-10
KNOTS) OVER THE LLCC. TC 04P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 04P WILL REMAIN ON AN EASTWARD TRACK FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NER
AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS VWS REMAINS LOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH. AS THE NER WEAKENS AND A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 04P TAKES OVER AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 36 IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND
TAU 36 THE STR WILL BUILD LEADING TO TC 04P TRACKING TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72, BUT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS VWS INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE
TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE WEAKENING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121212 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.1S 172.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 172.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.1S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.2S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.4S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.6S 172.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.8S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.0S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.6S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 171.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, ON A 121704Z TRMM IMAGE AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A NARROW RING OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING AROUND A SMALL
DEVELOPING EYE EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM IMAGE. TC 04P IS
TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. THE CYCLONE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A ZONE
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE.
THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE BY TAU 48 AND STEER THE SYSTEM WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SLOWLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS (ECMWF, GFS) DEPICTING A SHARPER
POLEWARD TURN PRIOR TO TAU 96. HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z AND 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121213 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 171.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 171.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.1S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.3S 170.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.5S 171.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.9S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.2S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.4S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.9S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 171.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, INCLUDING THE FORMATION OF A 9 NM DIAMETER EYE.
TC 04P IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE, BUT ITS FORWARD MOTION IS BEGINNING TO SLOW. THE
CYCLONE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A ZONE OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 04P IS ENTERING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH
THE CURRENT NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE WEAKENING AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE.
THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE
AFTER TAU 36 AND PUSH THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS (ECMWF, GFS) DEPICTING A SHARPER
POLEWARD TURN PRIOR TO TAU 96. HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121213 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 13.9S 171.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 171.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.8S 171.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 13.9S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.2S 172.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.6S 174.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.7S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.0S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.7S 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 171.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TC
04P HAS SLOWED AND MOTION APPEARS TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A PERSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE. A 130438Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE CENTER
POSITIONED JUST OVER EASTERN UPOLU. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. ADDITIONALLY, THE 13/00Z
WARNING POSITION WAS ADJUSTED WEST ABOUT 25NM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES. THE CYCLONE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN
A ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 04P IS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD BUT
APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING STEERING FROM THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO A BUILDING (ALTHOUGH WEAK) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE STR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AS AN UPPER-LOW NEAR 18S 160W WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, ALLOWING TC 04P TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF STR FORECAST TO
BUILD AND MAINTAIN POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 110 TO 115 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PHASE OF
THE JTWC FORECAST. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS
THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND
140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121213 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 171.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 171.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.7S 172.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.9S 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.3S 174.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.7S 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.0S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.5S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.7S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 171.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A PERSISTENT
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND A 6NM EYE. A 130756Z TRMM 37GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE SMALL EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. THE CYCLONE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A ZONE
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 04P IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO BE
TRANSITIONING STEERING FROM THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO A BUILDING
(ALTHOUGH WEAK) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE STR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AS AN UPPER-LOW NEAR 18S 160W WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, ALLOWING TC 04P TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF STR FORECAST TO
BUILD AND MAINTAIN POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 110 TO 115 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PHASE OF
THE JTWC FORECAST. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS
THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND
141500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121213 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 171.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 171.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 13.2S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.2S 173.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.6S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.2S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.0S 178.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.3S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 171.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-
WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION AS FEEDER BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON
THE ABOVE EYE-FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, NFFN, AND PHFO RANGING
FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UNIMPEDED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
QUASI-STATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SHALLOW
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY NUDGE THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND ASSUME STEERING. AFTER TAU
36 THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE SOUTH OF WESTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC
04P WILL SEE MORE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SSTS, REMAIN FAVORABLE.
AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE
VORTEX IN A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEED. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
NEAR-TERM TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140900Z AND 142100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121214 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 13.0S 172.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 172.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.8S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.1S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.5S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.1S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.3S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.0S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.6S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 172.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
NORTHWEST OF OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION AS FEEDER BANDS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED AROUND A 10-NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE EYE-FIX WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, NFFN, AND PHFO RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO TRACK WESTWARD AS A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH HAS ASSUMED STEERING. AFTER TAU 48 THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC
04P WILL SEE MORE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SSTS, REMAIN FAVORABLE.
AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE
VORTEX IN A GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEED. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS. THERE IS NOW A HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS A DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
HAS EMERGED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121214 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 12.9S 172.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 172.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.9S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.1S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.6S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.3S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.8S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.8S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.5S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 172.8W.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121214 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 173.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 173.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.6S 174.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.0S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 13.7S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 14.5S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.7S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.6S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.0S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 173.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 140919Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS WEAK (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 04P IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. AFTER TAU 72, GFS APPEARS TO BE ERRONEOUSLY
DRIVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD INTO THE STR. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 04P
WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE ERODING STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF
A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AFTER TAU 72, TC 04P WILL WEAKEN
FURTHER AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST WITH MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121214 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 174.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 174.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 12.6S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.2S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.1S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.2S 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.2S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.7S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.4S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 174.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION AS FEEDER BANDS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED AROUND A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS READILY
APPARENT AS A MICROWAVE EYE ON A 141717Z SSMI-S IMAGE. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, NFFN, AND PHFO RANGING FROM 90 TO 102
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTH
OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW.
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD, STEERED BY A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 04P WILL SEE A
LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SSTS, REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTERWARDS,
INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM BUT SHOULD REMAIN A
STRONG CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS INCREASED OUTFLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH WILL MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF THE VWS. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF
GFS THAT IS UNREALISTICALLY TRACKING THE VORTEX LEFT OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFS. THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121215 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 175.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 175.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.6S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.5S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.4S 178.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.5S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.0S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.8S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.4S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 176.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH INTENSE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
150542Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FIJI REGION; HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE LEVELS (20 KNOTS). THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AS WELL AS THE RECENT TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS, TC 04P HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO A RANGE OF 77 TO 102
KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES. TC 04P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ERODES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF GFS, WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD
INTO THE STR, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. GFS AND GFDN TRACK
TC 04P SOUTHWARD, WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY, WHILE ECMWF, UKMET AND
NOGAPS TRACK THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
ALL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN BUILDING A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH
OF FIJI, WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND EVENTUAL
RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE JTWC
FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS AND IS POSITIONED WEST
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO
PEAK AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 24 TO 36 THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION (BY TAU 48) AND THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING PHASE
DUE TO COOLER SST AND STRONG VWS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121215 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 177.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 177.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.4S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.6S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.0S 176.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.4S 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.0S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 23.4S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.3S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 178.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 151704Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 04P
MAINTAINS ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN A MODERATE (15-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW,
KNES AND PHFO. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 04P
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 04P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND INCREASINGLY TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ERODES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BECOMES
MORE MERIDIANAL. INTENSITIES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE BUT ATER TAU 36,
TC 04P WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE TROUGH AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK. AFTER TAU 48, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. ALL
MODELS AGREE ON THE MORE POLEWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 48 BUT HAVE
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN TRACK SPEED AND THE EXTENT OF THE POLEWARD
TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY AND LEADS TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121216 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 179.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 179.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.2S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.8S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.9S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.2S 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.6S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.4S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 28.5S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 179.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THE DEEP LAYERED CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS REMAINED WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A BRIEF RE-APPEARANCE OF A
PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF THE
MSI AND THE POSITIONING FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO. THE
INTENSITY HAS SLOWLY INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH
CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 105 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
LLCC, WHICH IS ENHANCING THE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AND IS CREATING A MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. TC 04P HAS STARTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, CAUSING THE STR TO BECOME
MORE MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED, ALLOWING TC 04P TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BEYOND
TAU 48. TAPPING INTO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, BUT AS VWS INCREASES SLIGHTLY, A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
TAU 72 IS EXPECTED. BEYOND TAU 72, A SHARP INCREASE IN VWS AND A
MARKED DECREASE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCELERATE THE RATE
OF WEAKENING OBSERVED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT SHOWS A
WIDER VARIATION IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE FORECAST REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND BASED ON MODEL
GUIDANCE IMPROVING IN THE EXTENDED TAUS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
THE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN INCREASED TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121216 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 178.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.8S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.2S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.6S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.0S 176.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.2S 176.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.0S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 30.0S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 178.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
SHOWS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND
A RAGGED 7NM EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE SEEN IN
THE IR, POSITIONING FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO, AND RADAR
IMAGERY FROM FIJI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE, WITH CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW
INDICATING 113 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE
TC 04P, GIVING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW WHILE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH AND NOW LOW (5 TO
10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 04P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR), LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH,
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA, IS FORECAST TO ERODE
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, CAUSING THE STR TO BECOME MORE
MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED, ALLOWING TC 04P TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BEYOND TAU
24. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 48 IS FORECAST AS VWS OFFSETS
THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BEYOND TAU 48,
STRONGER VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCELERATE
THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM AND EGRR, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH EGRR AND JGSM BOTH ERRONEOUSLY DRIVING THE
SYSTEM INTO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
AND EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE EGRR AND JGSM
SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE OTHER CONSENSUS
MEMBERS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121217 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 177.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 177.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.5S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.0S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.3S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.6S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.4S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 29.2S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 32.3S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 177.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS TC 04P HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE COAST OF VITI LEVU,
FIJI AND HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
BUT DUE TO THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING TO 125 KNOTS AT THE 170000Z
POSITION, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND IN
MSI AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND NFFN. OBSERVATIONS
FROM NADI INDICATE WINDS NEAR 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 82 KNOTS AT
0600Z. BASED ON THIS DATA THE WIND FIELD HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER TC 04P, PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE
SOUTH AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 04P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR),
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY
OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA, IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR, CAUSING THE STR TO BECOME MORE MERIDIONALLY
ALIGNED, ALLOWING TC 04P TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BEYOND TAU 24. A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 48 IS FORECAST AS VWS OFFSETS THE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BEYOND TAU 48,
STRONGER VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCELERATE
THE WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 96 AS
INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT
THE SYSTEM TO A COLD CORE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, WHICH SHOWS A MORE AGGRESSIVE WESTWARD
TURN INTO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. DUE TO THE TIGHT
AGREEMENT AMONG THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121217 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 177.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 177.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.1S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.4S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.7S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.9S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.6S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 30.6S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 32.8S 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 177.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
THE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE POLEWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 171546Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO, AND
NFFN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW 07 DEGREES
SOUTH OF AND OPENING DISTANCE FROM THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
INCREASING (CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS THE OVERALL OUTFLOW IS FAST
DIMINISHING AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS DIGGING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, COOLING SSTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STEADY DECAY OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, TC 04P IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEFORE IT FULLY DISSIPATES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SPREADS
OUT TO ABOUT 30 DEGREES WITH JGSM TO THE RIGHT AND WBAR TO THE LEFT
OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID VERY CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z AND 182100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121218 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 177.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 177.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.3S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.6S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.0S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.6S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 29.6S 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 32.6S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 177.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 04P
HAS CONTINUED TO ELONGATE POLEWARD WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE NORTH-
WESTERN QUADRANT HAS STARTED TO BECOME EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION
WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 180418Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A
WELL-DEFINED WARM CENTER THAT IS WELL WEST OF THE OVER-SHOOTING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS, WHICH IS
ON THE HIGH END OF MULTIPLE DVORAK ESTIMATES, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO SPIN DOWN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04P IS ENCOUNTERING
STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ACCOUNTING
FOR THE VERTICAL DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM NOTED ABOVE. TC 04P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A DEEP-LAYER MERIDIONAL EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS NOW AN UNFAVORABLE 25
DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL DROP SHARPLY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES 25
DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
ACCELERATE THE DISSIPATION OF TC 04P. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR TO REACHING 30 DEGREES SOUTH
LATITUDE NEAR TAU 72, AND SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 96,
HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TC 04P WILL DISSIPATE BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO THIS TIME. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD
IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121218 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 020A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 020A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 22.3S 177.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 177.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.7S 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.9S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.5S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.9S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 177.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY STRONG (30-40
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
GROSSLY ELONGATED AND FRAGMENTED AS THE FEEDER BANDS UNRAVELED AND
CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
INTERPOLATED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO, AND NFFN.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED TO 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND CONTINUE TO DROP. IN VIEW OF THE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS, TD 04P IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE TAU 48. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LENDS HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID TO THE LEFT OF
CONSENSUS TO REFLECT A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM STEERED AT A LOWER
LEVEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
MODIFIED STORM MOTION IN REMARKS TO READ 09 KNOTS TO MATCH TEXT AND
GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121219 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 178.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 178.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.7S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.2S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 178.3E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121219 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 24.3S 178.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S 178.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.2S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 178.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO ELONGATE AND LACK DEEP
CONVECTION, AND HAS STARTED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 04P
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT DISSIPATES
UNDER WARNING STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND CONTINUES ETT. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20
FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_evan.htm | Updated: 27 December 2012 |