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Tropical Cyclone FELLENG
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Tropical Cyclone FELLENG Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20130126 09:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 66.1E TO 12.9S 60.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 260523Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 65.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
66.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 65.7E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP
CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
MAX HAS PASSED, HOWEVER THE STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE WHICH IS EVIDENT IN A 260402Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE.
A 260523Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL LLCC WITH 30 KNOT NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LIGHTER, 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A
DIVERGENT AREA SOUTH OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH INTERACTING WITH A MID-LATITUDE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM
IS CREATING AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INCREASING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270930Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130126 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260921Z JAN 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 12.9S 65.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 65.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.2S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.3S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.3S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.4S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.1S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.8S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 65.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, READILY EVIDENT IN A 261102Z
SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND THE OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 13S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUT IS BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG
(20-30 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 13S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 13S WILL
CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, SLOWLY INTENSIFYING UNDER THE
MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 72, TC 13S WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SLOWS DOWN, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS VWS RELAXES.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND THE EXTENT OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. DUE TO THE LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 260921Z JAN 13
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 260930). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z AND 271500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130127 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 63.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 63.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.0S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.3S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.5S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.8S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.5S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.3S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.4S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 63.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AND SHEARING
NORTHWARD DUE TO THE MODERATE (20 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. RECENT IR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS ALSO SHEARING NORTHWARD. A 270101Z
SSMIS IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND
DEPICTS A SMALL AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT
OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA, WHICH INDICATES 25
TO 30 KNOT WINDS, BASED ON THE HIGHER DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC 13S REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR 17S 78E. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU
72 BUT SHOULD TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND RE-ORIENT AS A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD MADAGASCAR. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING OF THE RE-CURVATURE AFTER TAU 96. GFS INDICATES A
SHARPER RE-CURVE EAST OF THE OTHER MODELS BUT ALSO APPEARS TO DRIVE
THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY INTO THE STR, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST
FAVORS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ECMWF. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS BUT
SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE AFTER TAU 48 AS VWS DECREASES AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE RE-CURVE POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND
280300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130127 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 13.6S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.9S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.2S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.5S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.7S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.1S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.3S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 61.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN A
271053Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE WELL DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. TC 13S
REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW NEAR 18S 78E. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH
TAU 72 BUT WILL THEN TURN POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO RE-ORIENT AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
PROPAGATES TOWARD MADAGASCAR. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY
AT A FASTER RATE AFTER TAU 48 AS VWS DECREASES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INCREASES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE TIMING
OF THE RE-CURVATURE AFTER TAU 72. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE
EASTERN OUTLIER, SHOWING A SHARPER RE-CURVE EAST OF THE OTHER MODELS
BUT ALSO APPEARS TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY INTO THE STR,
THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
ECMWF. DUE TO THE TIGHT MODEL GROUPING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS,
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z AND 281500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130128 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 13.2S 59.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 59.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.3S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.4S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.5S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 13.8S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.1S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.8S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.6S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 59.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT
HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DECREASING SOUTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF ABOUT 15 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20S 78E.
THIS HAS LED TO A BETTER ORGANIZED LLCC AS EVIDENT IN A 272337Z SSMI
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED
ON THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW
AND KNES. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48 BUT
WILL THEN TURN SOUTHWARD AND TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO RE-ORIENT NORTH-SOUTH AS A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD MADAGASCAR. DUE TO THE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS, TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE RE-CURVATURE. THE
JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ECMWF. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z AND 290300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130128 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.6S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.0S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.6S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.5S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.0S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.8S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.9S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 57.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED, IMPROVING SYSTEM WITH A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE NOW OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FURTHER IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT AS A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LLCC GIVING WAY TO AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING
ASSISTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 20S 75E AND LOW TO MODERATE (5-
15 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW
AND KNES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND
KNES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL IMPROVING STRUCTURE. TC 13S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 36 BUT WILL THEN TURN
POLEWARD AND TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO RE-ORIENT NORTH-SOUTH, AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
PROPAGATES TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. AFTER TAU
72, NOGAPS AND GFDN SHOW THE STR REBUILDING BACK IN SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM GIVING TC 13S A WESTWARD BIAS TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. GFS AND
ECMWF, HOWEVER, MAINTAIN THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR ALLOWING FOR
THE MORE POLEWARD TRACK. BASED ON THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130129 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 56.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 56.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.1S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.1S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.2S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.8S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.9S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.6S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.7S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE OF BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A
DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT 282321Z SSMI
37H MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A DEFINITIVE EYE WITH A FULLY DEVELOPED
EYEWALL. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH OF TC 13S
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND THE
VENTING MECHANISM LEADING TO THE RECENT INTENSITY INCREASE OBSERVED.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DEVELOPING POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE, OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, HAS BEEN MAKING PROGRESS TOWARDS
ESTABLISHING AN IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT CONTINUES TO
BE HINDERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE STR. A MID-LATITUDE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE STR,
WHICH WILL ALTER THE SYSTEM TWO-FOLD. THE FIRST ALTERATION WILL BE
AN EXPANSION OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND THE SECOND
WILL BE A SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AROUND THE EASTERN LOBE OF
THE STR AS THE WESTERN LOBE BREAKS DOWN. THE IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72.
DECREASING SST VALUES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEYOND TAU
72 WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130129 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 14.1S 54.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 54.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.9S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.1S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.5S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.5S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.1S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.8S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.3S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 54.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A SYMMETRICAL, ALBEIT CLOUD-FILLED 22-NM EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS FIXED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE ABOVE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, FIMP, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
FURTHERMORE, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24,
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TC 13S TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY DUE TO THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, ENHANCED BY AN OPENING OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72, TC FELLENG WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS
INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF
WBAR THAT CONTINUES TO DEFLECT THE VORTEX TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z AND 301500Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 53.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 53.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.7S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.1S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.6S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.1S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.1S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.1S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.0S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 53.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS BUT HAS SEEN MARGINAL GAINS SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE RECENT IMPROVEMENTS
IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND DEVELOPING
EYE AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, FIMP, AND
FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM A
POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS VIGOROUS AND HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER
MADAGASCAR CONTINUES TO STIFLE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE STR
WEAKENS ALONG ITS EASTERN EXTENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING
LONG-WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND HELP TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY FROM TAU 24 THROUGH
TAU 48. BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A SLIGHTLY
LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEYOND TAU 72 WILL
AMPLIFY THE WEAKENING TREND. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY GROUPED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, WHICH REMAINS
THE WESTERN OUTLIER. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z AND 310300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 52.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 52.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.6S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.2S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.8S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.3S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.2S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 30.4S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 34.7S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 52.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A SYMMETRICAL 20-NM EYE. THE SAME ANIMATION
ALSO SHOWS A POLEWARD CHANNEL HAS EMERGED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY, COMPLEMENTING AN ALREADY ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS FIXED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE FEATURE IN
THE ABOVE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAS BEGUN TO RECEDE IN
RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
CURRENTLY DIGGING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND CAUSING TC 13S TO
TRACK MORE POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, ENHANCED BY THE OPENING OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
AFTER TAU 24, TC FELLENG WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF WBAR
THAT CONTINUES TO DEFLECT THE VORTEX TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310300Z AND 311500Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130130 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 52.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 52.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.4S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.6S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.3S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 28.0S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 33.0S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 37.5S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 52.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 13S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS), SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT
WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE, A
301700Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE TRMM IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS.
TC 13S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48 THEN WILL BEGIN TO
TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL DEPICTS THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH
OF THE STR. ADDITIONALLY, GFS INDICATES A SHARP TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD, WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO ERRONEOUS INTERACTION WITH A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO, BUT SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. TC 13S IS NOW EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 48 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ALSO TRACKS OVER COOL SST,
WHICH RANGE FROM 25C TO AS LOW AS 20C. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECAST
TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 96 AND SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310900Z AND 312100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130131 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 51.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 51.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.7S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.4S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.3S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.4S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 30.2S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 34.8S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI)INDICATES THAT TC 13S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE, LOSING ITS EYE
IN THE MSI AND INFRARED IMAGERY. A RECENT 310444Z SSMIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES, BASED ON THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AMPLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING OFFSET
BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). TC 13S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BUT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE CURRENT
MOTION, TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ALONG THE STR AND THEN MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS
AND ACCELERATES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 13S WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FORECAST PAST TAU 48. TC 13S WILL BEGIN
EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AT TAU 72 AS IT DRIVES INTO COLD
(< 26 DEGREE CELSIUS) SSTS AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED TAUS
DUE TO MINOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL DEPICTS THE ORIENTATION
AND STRENGTH OF THE STR. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO,
BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z AND 010900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130131 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 20.0S 50.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 50.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.4S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.1S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.2S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 31.1S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 35.2S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 50.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 13S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS), WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 311718Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME TILTED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS
SHEARED PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, ON THE 1718Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE,
WHICH SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. TC 13S CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 THEN WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT (135 NM SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96) THROUGH TAU 96, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING, STRONG VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ALSO TRACKS OVER
COOL SST, WHICH RANGE FROM 25C TO AS LOW AS 20C. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48 AND
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130201 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 21.3S 50.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 50.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.0S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.7S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.6S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.2S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 31.6S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 35.8S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 50.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
WEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE DIURNALLY FLARING CONVECTION, BUT DESPITE
THE STRONG TO MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION. A 010433Z SSMIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO REVEAL A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
BANDING CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERIES. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED UPON THE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 60 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 60 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, DUE TO THE
SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO REVEAL THE STRONG TO MODERATE VWS WHILE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTLFLOW REMAINS ROBUST. TC 13S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE (STR), POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND APPROACHES THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IS OFFSET BY THE
INCREASINGLY STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH
SHARPLY DROPS BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS POLEWARD OF 30S. THE SYSTEM
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU
48 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130201 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 23.7S 51.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 51.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.7S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.6S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 29.5S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 31.7S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 36.0S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 51.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT POSITION FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AND A 011705Z
SSMIS PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD
AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW DRIVEN BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CYCLONE. TC 13S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TURNING EASTWARD AND ACCELERATING
AFTER TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS TOWARD A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. INCREASING
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AND THE APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE
IMPACT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER,
RESULTING IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE WEAKENING, OFFSET BY FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH
THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH MANY HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT MAY BE ADJUSTED A BIT
WESTWARD ON THE NEXT FORECAST IF THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A TRACK THAT LIES FARTHER TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND
022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130202 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 25.9S 51.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 51.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 28.2S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 30.5S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 33.0S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 36.4S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 26.5S 51.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ELONGATION AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BANDS ARE DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THIS IS ALSO READILY APPARENT ON A 020422Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON THE
SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH AND WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STH
AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. AS
TC 13S TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD, THE STRONG VWS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL COMMENCE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH WBAR ON THE LEFT OF AND
UKMET ON THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF AND SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130202 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 27.9S 51.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 51.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 30.1S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 32.7S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 35.5S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 39.1S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 28.5S 51.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
SLIGHT NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ELONGATION AND THE MAJORITY OF DEEP
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE THAT
RANGED FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC CREATING STRONG
(30 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE SYSTEM. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
(STH) BUT HAS STARTED TO SLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE STH
SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE STH SHIFTS, TC 13S WILL TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE STH AMPLIFYING THE STEERING FLOW. THE
TROUGH WILL ALSO INCREASE THE VWS, LEADING TO FURTHER EROSION OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 13S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
AND BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL BE FINISHED WITH ETT TO A COLD CORE
LOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR,
WHICH REMAINS THE EASTERN MOST OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130203 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 31.1S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.1S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 33.4S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 36.0S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 38.5S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 31.7S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED
AND DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS
REMAINED EXPOSED AND HAS NOW BEGUN TO UNRAVEL. THIS IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON A 030411Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN CURRENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF
35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT HAS WEAKENED WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
DIGGING THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSING SEVERE
SUBSIDENCE. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MINIMUM GALE FORCE
INTENSITY AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING A COLD
CORE LOW BY TAU 36; HOWEVER, THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE TAU 36 DUE TO THE HIGH VWS. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND LENDS HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS EAST OF AND SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 40900Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20130203 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 33.4S 54.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4S 54.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 36.2S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 34.1S 54.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
SOUTH OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ALL
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY APPROXIMATELY 175 NM. OLDER
ASCAT PASSES INDICATE THE LLCC HAS STARTED TO EXPAND WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED FURTHER FROM THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN LOCATED OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BETWEEN
23 TO 24 DEGREES CELSIUS, DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE WARM CENTRAL CORE.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS AND
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THE SST VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 DEGREES
CELSIUS, ACCELERATING THE TRANSITION TO A COLD CORE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR ARE INTERACTING WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH OF TC 13S, CREATING HIGH LEVELS (3O TO
40 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LLCC. THIS INTER-
ACTION IS ALSO ENHANCING THE STEERING FLOW, KEEPING TC 13S ON A
QUICK BUT STEADY TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SST VALUES WILL LEAD TC 13S TO BE FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY
TAU 12. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BASED ON GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031800Z IS 20 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_felleng.htm | Updated: 6 February 2013 |