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Tropical Cyclone FREDA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone FREDA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20121227 14:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 163.8E TO 12.0S 161.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 271200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.2S 163.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5S
163.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 163.7E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST
OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 270914Z SSMIS PASS.
THE LLCC LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS, INCLUDING GFS AND NOGAPS,
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281430Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121228 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 160.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 160.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 11.4S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 12.1S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.9S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.8S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.1S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.7S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.0S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 160.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A
281110Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRM THAT TC 05P HAS REACHED THE WARNING
THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES AND A 280902Z SSMIS PASS. TC 05P IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND TRACKS TOWARD THE
BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
GENERALLY POLEWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER WILL SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF TC 05P, WITH THE GFS AND GFDN
SHOWING A STEADY RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES,
NOGAPS SHOWING A SLOWER POLEWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOWING THE CYCLONE
MEANDERING POLEWARD WITHIN THE DEEP TROPICS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT
THIS POINT THAT ANY DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH OR EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EQUATORWARD TO INDUCE FULL RECURVATURE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR A STEADY POLEWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN BETWEEN
TAU 96 AND TAU 120. THIS FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST SCENARIO.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 271430Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121229 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 159.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 159.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.5S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.3S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.0S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.7S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.0S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.9S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.5S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 159.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. HOWEVER,
A 282217Z METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS THAT LAND INTERACTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ALTHOUGH A
282218Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED ONLY 40 TO 45 KNOTS, DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES, THEREFORE,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS. TC 05P HAS MAINTAINED
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CORAL SEA. TC 05P IS
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS TO THE SOUTH. THE STR IS FORECAST TO RE-
BUILD BRIEFLY TO THE SOUTH AFTER PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE, WHICH MAY
ALLOW TC 05P TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. HOWEVER, ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
PASSAGE WILL FORCE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AND ACCELERATION TOWARD NEW
CALEDONIA AFTER TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
AND HAS BEEN ERRATIC. GFS INDICATES AN UNLIKELY RAPID RECURVE, INTO
THE STR. BOTH NOGAPS AND GFDN HAVE JUMPED TO AN UNREALISTIC WESTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE STR, WHICH MAINTAINS DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE DEEP
TROUGH. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS (RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ONCE THE
SYSTEM CLEARS THE SOLOMON ISLANDS). DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
INFLUENCE AND POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121229 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 12.9S 160.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 160.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 13.7S 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.5S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.5S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.6S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.2S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.6S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.0S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 160.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED, TIGHTLY WRAPPED
SYSTEM WITH A 6 NM EYE THAT HAS RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE IR
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE HIGHER END OF AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS. TC 05P HAS MAINTAINED RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CORAL SEA. TC 05P HAS BEEN TRACKING ERRATICALLY
TAKING A QUASISTATIONARY TRACK ON THE 06Z POSITION AND NOW MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) WITH A
GENERAL TRACK MOTION SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNTIL A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL FORCE
A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN POOR AGREEMENT AND CONTINUES TO BE ERRATIC. GFDN CONTINUES TO
DRIVE THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND EGRR ERRATICALLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM
INITIALLY TO THE WEST AND THEN TAKES A QUICK TURN TO THE EAST IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z AND 301500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121230 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 160.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 160.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.9S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.9S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.9S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.0S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.5S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.6S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.3S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 160.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292140Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE THAT TC 05P HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND HAS FORMED A 10-NM EYE
WHILE MAINTAINING INTENSE SPIRAL BANDING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CORAL SEA. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM KNES, PHFO AND PGTW. TC 05P IS TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE STR IS EXPECTED
TO REBUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AFTER A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD, WHICH WILL INDUCE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
BIAS. AFTER TAU 72, TC 05P WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED
OVER AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUES TO BE INCONSISTENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF. THE JTWC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 24. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE POOR MODEL AGREEMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121230 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 161.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 161.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.4S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.4S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.3S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.3S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.6S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.4S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.4S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 161.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG WITH A 301004Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN INTENSE SYSTEM
WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A 7NM RAGGED EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EYE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM KNES, PHFO AND
PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ALONG WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, DUE TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CORAL SEA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. TC 05P IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE EAST. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD AFTER TAU 24, WHEN A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD, WHICH WILL INDUCE
A SLIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, TC 05P WILL
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND CONTINUES TO BE ERRATIC, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 05P
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH A QUICKER WEAKENING TREND OCCURRING AFTER TAU 48. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121231 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 161.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 161.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.5S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.7S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.7S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.5S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.4S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.4S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.7S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 161.2E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 43 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20121231 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 161.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 161.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.5S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.2S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.1S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.7S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.9S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.1S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.6S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 161.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS
AND THE LOSS OF ALL BANDING FEATURES. A 310906Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE TRMM IMAGE AND
SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING
TREND AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90
KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A JET MAX
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BUT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG (20-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05P IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NEW CALEDONIA THROUGH TAU 96 DUE TO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH,
CURRENTLY OVER AUSTRALIA, MOVING IN AND WEAKENING THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 96 A DEEP-LAYERED STR WILL BUILD IN SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM GIVING TC 05P A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD BIAS. TC 05P WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG VWS AND
COOL (24 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
NEW CALEDONIA, FURTHER DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH TAU 72 BUT NOW
SHOWS THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN DUE TO ECMWF LOSING THE VORTEX NEAR NEW
CALEDONIA. NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS ALL SHOW THIS GENERAL TURN IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STR THAT IS FORECAST TO
BUILD IN. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS
40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130101 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 18.6S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.6S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.3S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.0S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.7S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.8S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.5S 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.1S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 161.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AS THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON A RANGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, NFFN, AND PHFO. A RECENT 312256Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALED THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM AND RANGED FROM 45 TO 50 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN A
STEADY DECLINE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE LLCC WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AROUND TAU 24. THIS
WEAKENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND A DECREASE IN THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96 A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TC 05P TO TRACK
WESTWARD, AND WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN VWS. WITH MARGINAL SSTS AND
DECREASING VWS, THE LLCC WILL REMAIN A WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM THROUGH
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130101 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 19.4S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 161.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.2S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.1S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.7S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.3S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.0S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.8S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.3S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 162.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY,
CORROBORATED BY A 010951Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS, SHOWS THE MAIN
CONVECTION SHEARED AND ERODED SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMI-S IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05P IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO THE HIGH VWS; HOWEVER, AFTER TAU
48, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO DEFLECT SOUTHWESTWARD. AN INCREASE IN OUTFLOW AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN VWS WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM AT THE EXTENDED
TAUS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WIDELY DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48
AND OFFER VARYING RECURVATURE SOLUTIONS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 48 AND THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
TC 05P WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020300Z AND 021500Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130102 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 163.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 163.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.1S 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.0S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 163.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS STARTING TO ELONGATE AND OPEN ALONG THE NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF NEW CALEDONIA, BUT REMAINS SHEARED FROM THE CENTER. A
PARTIAL PASS FROM A 012235Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED PREDOMINANTLY 30 TO
35 KNOTS WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS
AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A DEEP LAYERED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
TC 05P AND AN UPPER LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE SOLOMON
ISLANDS ARE INTERACTING TO CREATE HIGH LEVELS (30 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE WESTERN HALF (IN PARTICULAR THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT) OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LLCC WILL UNDERGO FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT CROSSES OVER NEW CALEDONIA INTO
UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ISLAND AND
INCREASING VWS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS DROPPING BELOW WARNING
THRESHOLD, SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE LLCC TRACKS BACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF TC 05P.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS
25 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_freda.htm | Updated: 7 January 2013 |