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Tropical Cyclone GARRY
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone GARRY Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20130119 20:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
235 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S 179.4E TO 11.6S 172.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 201930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 179.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 176.8E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 179.7W, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO,
AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191220Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES
25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS FEEDING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF
A RIDGE AXIS AND SOUTHEAST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IN 24-36 HOURS. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202000Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR IN
THE LONGITUDE FOR CURRENT POSITION IN PARAGRAPH 2. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130120 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192000ZJAN2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 176.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 176.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 12.6S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 12.8S 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.2S 171.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.0S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.0S 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.4S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.9S 164.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 176.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD AND ORGANIZE AROUND AN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 200952Z
ASCAT PASS INDICATES WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF HAVE BUILT TO 35
KNOTS, AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTHEAST OF
AN ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5 TO
10 KNOTS) WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC, RANGING FROM 28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD AND TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES AMERICAN
SAMOA BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLOWLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE
SSTS. AN INCREASE IN VWS AND INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AROUND
TAU 120. BASED ON THIS BEING THE INITIAL FORECAST THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 192000Z JAN 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 192000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 201200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z
AND 211500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130120 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 002 CORRECTED //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 12.6S 175.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 175.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.6S 173.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.9S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.6S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.4S 169.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.7S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.2S 164.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.5S 162.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 175.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST WITH A LARGE FORMATIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF AN ILL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 07 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,
THE VWS IS MITIGATED BY THE STORM MOTION BEING IN-PHASE WITH THE DEEP
UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 36, A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK
ON A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO GAIN MODEST
INTENSITY UP TO TAU 96 AS STRONG OUTFLOW, EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY, PERSISTS. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
AFTER TAU 96, HIGH VWS WILL ULTIMATELY TAKE ITS TOLL AND BEGIN TO
ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z,
210900Z, 211500Z, AND 212100Z.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: INCLUDED TWO ADDITIONAL WARNING TIMES
IN THE LAST LINE TO REFLECT 6-HOURLY FORECASTS. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130121 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 11.5S 174.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 174.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 11.5S 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.9S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.4S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.8S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.5S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.8S 165.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.7S 161.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 173.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF
PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED;
HOWEVER, FORMATIVE BANDING HAS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. A LARGE
FEEDER BAND TO THE NORTH HAS ALSO MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 202100Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A BROAD
AND ELONGATED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HIGHER THAN DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND KNES TO REFLECT THE TIGHTER WRAP
INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 07
DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-
30 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS
MITIGATED BY THE STORM MOTION BEING IN-PHASE WITH THE DEEP UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 24, A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK
ON A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO GAIN MODEST
INTENSITY UP TO TAU 96 AS STRONG OUTFLOW, EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY, PERSISTS. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
AFTER TAU 96, HIGH VWS WILL ULTIMATELY TAKE ITS TOLL AND BEGIN TO
ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AS THE SOLE RIGHT OUTLIER DURING THE INITIAL
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130121 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 172.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 172.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.4S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.7S 168.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.0S 167.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.5S 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.3S 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.4S 161.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.7S 157.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 171.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED BUT HAS NOT BEEN SUSTAINING DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE AS
THE LLCC HAS SPED UP IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. OBSERVATIONS AT AMERICAN
SAMOA REMAIN LIGHT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PRESSURES NEAR 999 MB. BASED
ON THIS DATA, THE SIZE FOR TC 10P HAS BEEN KEPT COMPACT IN THE MOST
RECENT ANALYSIS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC CREATING A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ENVIRONMENT (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW. THIS
INCREASING OUTFLOW AND DECREASING TRACK SPEEDS WILL SUPPORT THE
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 96. BY TAU 120 THE VWS AND
INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM SLIGHTLY. THE FORECAST PERIODICITY HAS BEEN CHANGED TO 12-
HOURLY AS THE IMPACT TO AMERICAN SAMOA APPEARS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130121 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 170.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 170.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.1S 169.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.3S 168.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.7S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.0S 165.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.7S 163.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.1S 160.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.4S 156.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 170.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
NORTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SLOW CONSOLIDATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 211720Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS
POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT PAGO
PAGO REMAIN LIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72 BUT SHOULD TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS, MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED FASTER AND EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11P (OSWALD) FINAL WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130122 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 13.2S 169.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 169.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.5S 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.5S 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.5S 167.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.6S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.7S 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.7S 160.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.9S 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 169.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A RECENT 220717Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND POSITION FIXES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON A LARGE SPREAD OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
35 TO 65 KNOTS AND THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDER DIVERGENT
WESTERLY FLOW CREATING MARGINAL OUTFLOW AND IS NOW IN A MODERATE (10-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. TC 10P WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK
OF 65 KNOTS UNDER THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU
72, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AS VWS INCREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD THROUGH
THE FORECAST BUT IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH ALL SUPPORTING A TRACK
TO THE EAST. DUE TO THIS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z AND 230900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130122 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 169.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 169.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.0S 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.0S 167.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.4S 165.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.0S 164.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.0S 161.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.1S 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.5S 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 169.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 221708Z
SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC; HOWEVER,
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS
WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE SSMIS
IMAGE WITH MARGINAL CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
50 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
UNDER DIVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW CREATING MARGINAL OUTFLOW AND IS NOW
IN A MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ENVIRONMENT. TC 10P WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 THEN
TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 72, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS VWS INCREASES. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST BUT IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED EQUATORWARD AND FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130123 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 168.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 168.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.1S 167.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.5S 165.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.1S 164.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.1S 162.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.0S 160.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.5S 157.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 26.6S 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 167.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BE SHEARED OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 230418Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED
LLCC, WITH DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON UNANIMOUS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND DIVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS CREATING MARGINAL
OUTFLOW. TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS TRACK SPEEDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH,
INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS
VWS INCREASES. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 96, COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST BUT
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD AND FASTER
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130123 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 167.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 167.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.7S 165.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.4S 164.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.4S 163.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.6S 161.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.8S 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.8S 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.9S 152.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 166.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE EAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A 231655Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 08 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND CAUSE TC 10P TO TRACK MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD. TC GARRY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS DUE TO STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ITS
INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ERODE AS THE VWS CONTINUES TO INCREASE,
REACHING VALUES OVER 40 KNOTS; HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INTACT AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A
COLD CORE LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE TO BELOW 35 KNOTS BEFORE
TAU 72 DUE TO VERY STRONG VWS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH GFDN TO THE EXTREME RIGHT OF AND GFS SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST IS LAID JUST LEFT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFDN. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY WHICH CAN
AFFECT THE TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130124 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 164.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 164.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.8S 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.8S 161.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.3S 160.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.9S 159.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.2S 157.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 26.8S 152.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 30.9S 146.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 164.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS,
WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW. A 240653Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ALMOST
ENTIRELY AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 240305Z 37GHZ
COLOR ENHANCED MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE
MORE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE PREVIOUSLY NOTED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM
ALL AGENCIES, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT AUTOMATED ESTIMATIONS AND
PARTIAL SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATING SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 05 DEGREES WEST OF A
MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES TO THE WEST. EARLIER, ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE TROUGH WAS
IMPINGING ON THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW OF TC 10P, HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS THE EFFECTS OF THIS TROUGH HAVE ABATED. AS A RESULT,
RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED AND A LINKAGE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS SET UP, LIKELY FUELING THE RECENT
INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AROUND TAU 48, A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL ASSUME
STEERING RESULTING IN A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC GARRY IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE
STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES AND INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. AFTER TAU 12, CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND VWS BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE,
REACHING VALUES NEAR 40 KNOTS. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 25 DEGREES LATITUDE, AROUND
TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETELY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 120 AS
IT IS FULLY IMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE TO BELOW 35
KNOTS BEFORE TAU 72 DUE TO VERY STRONG VWS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE, INCLUDING SINGLE-MODEL ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS, HAVE COME INTO
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z AND 250900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130124 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 163.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 163.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.0S 161.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.4S 160.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.2S 159.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.3S 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 25.9S 154.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 31.3S 146.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 162.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE POLEWARD SIDE WHERE A DIVERGENT CHANNEL IS FEEDING INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER
DEEPENED AND CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION, PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE,
IS BASED ON A 241642Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE
SURROUNDED BY HIGH REFLECTIVITY BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
FLANKS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, PHFO, AND KNES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES THAT HAD REORIENTED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS ORIENTATION IS NOW
IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION AND HAS MITIGATED THE STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS; THE NET
EFFECT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
ADDITIONALLY, THE INITIAL EXPOSURE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES HAS ALSO ENHANCED THE OVERALL OUTFLOW. TC 10P IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DEFLECT THE CYCLONE TO A
MORE POLEWARD TRACK. AFTER TAU 48, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, ALLOWING TC 10P
TO ACCELERATE ON A MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE CYCLONE; IT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 96. AS TC GARRY TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTHWARD, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR ITS RAPID DECAY. THERE IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO BECOMING AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW DUE TO THE HIGH VWS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130125 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 160.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 160.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.9S 158.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.9S 157.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.1S 156.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.5S 154.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.5S 147.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 33.6S 140.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 160.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM WEST
OF BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
FUEL THE RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 85 KNOTS. THE TRACK SPEED
HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTERACT, INCREASING THE GRADIENT PRESSURE ON THE MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES THAT ARE REORIENTED
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS ORIENTATION IS NOW IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION AND HAS
MITIGATED THE HIGH LEVELS (30 TO 40 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS); THE NET EFFECT CONTRIBUTING TO THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO
THE EAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DEFLECT THE CYCLONE TO A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK. AFTER TAU 36, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
APPROACH AND WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, ALLOWING TC 10P TO
ACCELERATE ON A MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE CYCLONE; IT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 96. AS TC GARRY TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTHWARD, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR ITS RAPID DECAY. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130125 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 160.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 160.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.7S 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.1S 158.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.5S 156.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 25.6S 154.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 30.4S 145.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 160.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM WEST
OF BORA BORA, SOCIETY ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW SHEARED 30NM SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW 40 TO 50 KNOTS. CONSEQUENTLY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO DECREASED AND RANGE
FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. BASED ON THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOWER
RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES. DESPITE THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTER, A 251722Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC
WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TC 10P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS
FORECAST TO TURN MORE SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 10P
SHOULD TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER NORTHWESTERLY MIDLATITUDE FLOW.
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL COMMENCE BY TAU 48 AND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS TO A COLD-CORE, EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC AIDS WITH A 65NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT STRONG VWS AND COOLER SST
(25-22C) AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
RAPIDLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT TC
10P MAY WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT DUE TO THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT; HOWEVER, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A NEAR
GALE FORCE LOW PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z AND 262100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130126 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 159.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 159.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.3S 158.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.7S 156.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 25.7S 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.6S 150.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 159.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA, SOCIETY ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE PREVIOUSLY FULLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)HAS NOW BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
260504Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LLCC
WITH A BANDING FEATURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED UPON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO, RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 10P IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER DIVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT STILL REMAINS
STRONG AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS. TC 10P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 10P
SHOULD TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER NORTHWESTERLY MIDLATITUDE FLOW.
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL COMMENCE BY TAU 36 AND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW.
TC 10P SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKENING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING
OF DYNAMIC AIDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC MODEL
FIELDS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AFTER ETT, TC 10P WILL PERSIST
AS A NEAR GALE FORCE EXTRA TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130126 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 159.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 159.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.4S 157.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 25.5S 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.2S 151.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 158.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA, SOCIETY ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED 45 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261618Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD
LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 10P IS
LOCATED UNDER THE LEADING EDGE OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(40 TO 50 KNOTS). CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND NOW RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS ON THE HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATES. DUE TO
THE BROADENING LLCC, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION, WHICH IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. TC 10P IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20130127 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 23.5S 158.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S 158.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 25.5S 156.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 157.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA, SOCIETY ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT IS BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) WITH STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE SYSTEM AND SHALLOWING CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF AN
EXPOSED AND ELONGATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS
READILY APPERANT IN A 270450Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
LATEST AMSU TEMPERATURE CROSS SECTION SHOWS A BUILDING WARM CORE
ANAMOLY AT THE SURFACE WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A FORMATIVE WARM
FRONT. BASED ON THIS DATA, TC 10P WILL CONTINUE ETT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BECOMING A COLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270600Z IS 17 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_garry.htm | Updated: 6 February 2013 |